Speaker 1: Welcome to the Trip Cast.
Speaker 2: I'm Eleanor Klibanoff, thrilled to be joined this week by,
as always, editor in chief Matthew Watkins.
Speaker 1: How are you doing, Matthew doing?
Speaker 3: All right?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 2: We are very excited for both the theme of today's episode,
where we'll be talking about the big upcoming Senate race
in Texas, and especially excited about our guest, our former
friend turned mortal enemy, Patrick's v Tech Patrick.
Speaker 3: How are you come back on? I appreciate it.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Patrick is currently a reporter on the Washington Post politics
breaking news team. Most of you probably know him from
his nine year stint covering politics for us here at
the Texas Tribune. Patrick remains, I believe you can correct
me if I'm wrong on this. The most prolific Texas
Tribune reporter in history.
Speaker 3: That's probably true. Yeah, yeah, I don't have numbers to
back that up, but I'm going to say yes.
Speaker 2: Last year, you know, he left us for the Washington Post,
but we're thrilled to have him back here on the
Trip Cast. Patrick, Before we jump into the race, what
do you miss most about Texas? What could what can
we send to you in DC? If we could transplant one,
one thing from Texas to d C.
Speaker 1: What would you have?
Speaker 4: Oh? Man, h just HB in general? Probably you know,
there's specific products I could call out, but yeah, there's
the grocery stores in d C did not compare to
HIV in general, I would say, So that's one thing,
And then there's plenty of restaurants and taco places that
I could list off for you, especially coming from San
Antonio to DC.
Speaker 3: Saw that coming a mile away.
Speaker 5: Yeah, Patrick, you'd be sad to know about all the
coffee shops closing around our office start time. I'ms out
out here in Congress.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I will say I lived in d C for
I went to college in DC and lived there for
a while after. And uh, maybe it's changed since, but
when I lived there, at least the tex mex was
like egregious, like egregiously bad, very few options.
Speaker 4: There's serviceable Mexican food to text mex at least in the.
Speaker 3: DC proper area.
Speaker 4: In parts of Maryland there's really good Mexican food, I
would say, outside of DC, but in the in the
district itself, Yeah, you got to you gotta put in
some work to find the good places.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I'm sure you are missing HIV and tex
mex maybe more than the Texas legislature, which we are
knee deep.
Speaker 1: In right now.
Speaker 2: But we are going to look ahead to a forthcoming
political showdown, potentially one of the biggest political battles in
recent Texas memory, as long time incumbent Senator John Cornyn
faces down the insurgent arm of the Republican Party in
the physical form of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. This
is shaping up to be a vicious, expensive primary in
which Texas is Republican in fighting will be laid out
on the national stage for all to witness. Feels a
bit like, you know, when someone comes over to your
family's house and sees your family fighting.
Speaker 1: It's all embarrassing.
Speaker 2: But we're you know, gonna be a gonna be a
big people know what to expect when they come visit
our family.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's true.
Speaker 2: I don't think Texas is fighting it. They're the family
like having the fight.
Speaker 3: At the in the front line.
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly, Patrick, You've covered both of these figures for
a long time. Let's start with Cornyn and tell us
a little bit about you know, John Cornyn as a
as a character and sort of what his profile looks
like coming into this race.
Speaker 4: Sure, well, I guess, you know, from the perspective in Washington,
and he's coming into this reelection campaign after coming up
short in something that he has long wanted to do,
which is lead Senate Republicans. He narrowly lost the Senate
Majority leader race to John Thune from South Toda right
after the November election in twenty twenty four. For I
think years before that, he had made clear that that
was something that he had wanted to run for if
it ever, you know, if Mitch McConnell ever stepped aside
from that leadership position, and you know, he made a
good run for it, and you know, I forgot what
the final count was, but he you know, it wasn't
like a blowout, and so it was kind of a
disappointing loss for him. But he made pretty clear right
after that that he planned to run for reelection, telling
reporters that in DC, and then you know, officially launched
his reelection campaign in March. And for now, it seems
like he has a lot of fight left in him,
or at least he's trying to project the image that
he has a lot of fight left in him. I mean,
he is coming out of this coming out of the
gates swinging at Paxton, which sured you know, I guess
the generous interpretations. It shows he has a lot of
fight left in and but it also shows you know,
the very vulnerable position that he's in in this primary,
that he feels the need to go negative on Paxton
so quickly. And so that's kind of I think John
Corny summed up over the at least the recent several months.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and then Matthew, I'll give you the tougher question,
which is, how would you summarize Ken Paxton?
Speaker 3: How would I summarize Kein Paxton?
Speaker 5: So, Ken Paxton, of course has been Attorney General since
twenty fifteen.
Speaker 3: He is a you know, a.
Speaker 5: Controversial and a figure who brings up a lot of
passion on both sides and has for that time. You know,
I think people view him as very closely aligned with
Donald Trump, famously filed a lawsuit in twenty twenty and
seeking to overturn the election results. He's been very aggressive
in you know, pursuing causes favored by the kind of
hard line right of Texas that can range from you know,
anti abortion initiatives, targeting what he perceives to be is
voter fraud, and you know a lot of sort of
like social issues, things related to trans kids, all that
kind of stuff that if you if you see it
being talked about on Fox News, Ken Paxson has probably
filed a lawsuit related to it in the court. He
of course, also has carried with him a lot of
you know, ethical baggage. Famously, you know, was under indictment
for a long part of his early part of his
tenure because he was accused of securities fraud. That case
has since kind of gone away, and then you know,
more recently many of his top lieutenants resigned and accused
him of bribery. That case was investigated by the FBI,
but we learned recently that just before Trump took over
the FBI, the Department of Justice dropped that case. And so,
you know, he he remains he has those close ties
with the base, He has those close ties as with
the with the Trump administration. There are definitely people in
the Republican Party who try to keep him at arm's
length though, because of some of those other kind of
areas of baggage in the world.
Speaker 2: That was a very phenomenal recounting, you left out one
major chapter other than that, which is he was impeached, right,
of course he was not, unlike you know, our president
right now, was impeached by the House, the Texas House Representatives,
and then after having a lengthy trial in the Senate,
the Texas Senate voted to acquit him and restore him
to his role.
Speaker 1: So other than that, that's.
Speaker 3: Really maybe the most important thing.
Speaker 1: But you know, you know, we got all the rest
of the details.
Speaker 2: I mean, Patrick, how I mean, there's long been the
joke about attorney's general, like, not just in Texas but
nationally right that it stands for like aspiring governor. It
is often a jumping point to more to higher office.
How surprised are you to see Paxson getting to this race, Like,
how do we get here with paxton challenge in Cornan?
Speaker 4: You know, not surprised at all. I mean, Paxton had
telegraphed for months that maybe even over a year, that
he would maybe one day be interested in challenging Cornan.
Cornan has been one of the few statewide elected Texas
Republicans who has at least been blunt in observing Paxton's
legal challenges. It's not like Cornan has necessarily been a
vocal critic of Paxson's legal challenges, but you know, among
other state wide elected Republicans, they've been largely happy to
just kind of look the other way and try to
remain neutral. As Paxton has encountered all these other you know,
all these legal and ethical issues. So Cornan has stood
out I think for at least acknowledging or expressing some
concern about the legal and ethical issues that Paxon has had,
and he's gotten sharper over the years. There was obviously
that you know, tweet from Cornin to Paxton I think
last year where he said it's hard to run from
prison Ken, So clearly he ran, you know, one from
expressing concern to throw in some actual political jabs. But
Cornan has stood out, I think in that regard. And
I think there's some real personal animosity between these two men,
and I think that's what's keeping Cornyn going here a
little bit.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 4: You know, I mentioned earlier that Cornin seems to be,
you know, showing some real fight from the outset of
this race. I think that that's inspired by a little
bit of personal animus, you know, toward Paxton. And you know,
even though in this day and age, in the Trump era,
I think corn And probably feels like he can't say
this out loud because of Trump's own scandals and the
general tolerance for scandals inside the GOP. But I think
Cornan believes that the Texas GOP should be embarrassed about Paxton.
And so I think that's kind of what personally maybe
keeping Corny and chugging along in this case, even though
it looks like he's in the final you know, he's
in the latter years of his political career, I.
Speaker 5: Should just pause and ignowledge that for those of us
who cover texts politics, who are involved in you know,
the media world, this is just delightful, right whether or
not we you know, yeah, we may not have a
dog in the race, but we love interesting and exciting races.
And I would say this one is probably the highest
profile Republican primary in the state since maybe twenty ten
when k Bailey Hutchison, then a sitting senator I believe,
challenged the incumbent governor Rick Perry. And what everyone was
super excited about, you know, this being this huge kind
of heavy whiteweight fight in that race, it didn't really
turn out to be that much of a fight. It
turned out to be something of a pummeling, you know,
Rick Perry winning by more than twenty percentage points in
that race. But I think we see this as two
people who loom very heavily over Texas politics going right
after each other. Whether Cornyan would agree with this framing
or not, I think a lot of people are viewing
it as sort of the more traditional Republican, the one
who has been you know, in leadership in the Senate
for a very long time, you know, was kind of
around before we saw this dramatic shift to the right
in the state Republican Party, in the Republican Party in general,
versus the sort of new type of Republican, the one
who really ties the line close to Trump, who is
you know, always kind of scrapping for a fight, and
you know, Frankly is like less concerned about the traditional
norms and rules that govern politics. And I think we're
going to watch this and I think a lot of
people are going to frame this is a sort of
fight over you know, the future of the Republican Party
in Texas, and in.
Speaker 2: Many ways, like Ken Paxton has been the standard bearer
for that movement, right, not just in that he is
the most and I wouldn't even as I say, and
so he is like sort of the most extreme in
that in that side of the party, but he's certainly
the most local, the most I mean, we saw this
in like judicial races in the last election, where you know,
Attorney General Paxson was very unhappy with the ruling and
said basically, I'm going to go get you know, the
judges I want. It was pretty open about that, Like,
I don't think he would dispute that that framing, and
with the Court of Criminal Appeals unseated three people put
on judges you know, in at least two cases who
who are very closely allied with him, So he seems
pretty you know, in many ways. I think he's been
preparing for this fight for for a long time, and
you know it's going to be a big national.
Speaker 1: Route.
Speaker 2: I mean, I am curious, though, Patrick, what is your
sense of how outside of Texas maybe and even within
you know, tech the Texas GOP, how much appetite is
there for this big, bloody, vicious, potentially expensive primary in Texas,
a state that you know otherwise you know, I think
people think corner maybe could could you know, walk into
another term if you wanted to, if you didn't face
a major challenge.
Speaker 4: Sure, I mean, I think from Republican you know operatives
in DC who are aligned with corn In or sympathy
to Corny, and you know, they view this as a
waste of time and money during a midterm cycle where
you know, historically the trends are against them, but they
do have a three seat majority in the Senate and
some opportunities to grow that majority. And so I think
even Cornan himself has voiced this concern. It's obviously a
self serving concern, but you know, the concern that we're
going to spend tens of millions, over one hundred million
dollars on a statewide primary in Texas when at least
some of that money could be going to trying to
flip open Senate seats in places like Michigan, New Hampshire, Minnesota.
So I think that's the pro you know, corn In
view in DC. But obviously, you know, the Senate Republican
conference has become just more and more trumpy. It's still
not as trumpy as House Republicans are. Obviously House Republicans
are very pro Trump rowdy bunch. But you have seen
the remaking of the Senate, you know, Republican conference into
definitely a more pro Trump body, and for people who
want to see it continue in this direction, this is
a very pivotal fight in that.
Speaker 2: Trend and how much of this comes down to the
big man himself the endorsement from President Trump.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I was going to say earlier.
Speaker 4: I mean, we could spend hours talking about all the
different dynamics of this race and the pros and cons
of each candidate, But really, I think this is going
to turn on what Trump ultimately chooses to do in
this race. You know, he had I think he weighed
in on this race for the first time publicly last weekend.
He told reporters that he, you know, knows and respects
both men, or knows and likes both men, but would
make an endorsement at quote the appropriate time. Paxton himself
has said, I think in one of his post announcement interviews,
that he doesn't expect Trump to endorse until closer to
the primary in March twenty twenty six. So right now,
the vibes are clearly that Trump is not itching to
jump into this race, And I think for Paxton one
of his immediate challenges in this race is to try
to keep out a credible third candidate, whether that's someone
like Wesley congressman from Houston. I know, Beth Van Dyne,
congresswoman from the Dallas area. Her name also gets tossed around.
So Paxton, you know, I think he's got some short
term He's got some you know, short term tasks he
needs to fulfill, and then some you know in terms
of keeping out a third credible candidate, and then maybe
some medium term tasks in terms of trying to lock
down trump endorsement or continue to keep Trump out of
the race, which I'm sure he would view as a
win in a way as well. So that's I think,
you know what Paxton's to do list is right now.
Speaker 5: Yeah, you kind of contrast this race to the lieutenant
governor's race, right where Dan Patrick announced reelection and Trump
immediately endorsed him, right, you know, we at least don't
have that situation in Texas. You know, it seems like
Cornin has made some efforts in the past year or
so to sort of mend some fences with some of
the people in the grassroots who have fought against him.
There's kind of this famous moment in the twenty twenty
two State Republican Convention when Cornan spoke on stage and
was essentially booed off stage. You know, he has We
had an article from Matthew Choy a few months ago
talking about how he's kind of tried to repair that relationship.
You know, he has voted with Trump, He backed most,
if not all, of Trump's nominees. This you know, this
year early in Trump's terms, So you know, can he
kind of keep that relationship friendly enough to keep Trump
out of the race. I think is definitely an interesting question, right.
Speaker 2: I mean, and we've talked about this on the state level,
Like you know, the thin fine like distinctions we draw
between different candidates. Right, Cornyn, as Matthew has reported on
for US, like voted with Trump's agenda ninety two percent
of the time during his first President Trump's first term
and supported all of his nominees. Like, certainly Cornyn has
been very aligned with President Trump. He is I think
a little haunted by he was. I believe it was
in twenty twenty three when he said ahead of the
twenty twenty four election, you know that Trump's time had
passed him by. He has done a lot since then
to sort of try to work his way back in.
He posted a photo on x like a couple of
weeks ago before Paxston got in the race of him
like reading the art of the deal, which I felt
was a.
Speaker 1: Little on the nose personally, but you know, people.
Speaker 2: Like it, so yeah, I think certainly a lot of
like you said, a lot of this speculation really comes
down to one man.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 5: The other thing people really hit Corning on was his
involvement in a really the only gun safety bill to
pass the Senate in recent years. This was in twenty
twenty two, after the Uvaldi shooting. It was a bill
that increased funding for mental health and incentivized states to
pass laws that keep guns out of the hands of
people who are found by the courts to be thrust
to themselves or others. Are you know, known as red
flag laws. You know, I think a lot of people
looked pointed at that and said, you know, this is
a very very very modest gun safety law. But anytime
you pass anything that can be called a gun safety law,
you're gonna engender kind of push back from the Republican right,
and that indeed did happen.
Speaker 3: I'm sure we'll see.
Speaker 5: That be brought up during the legislative I mean during
the primary this year.
Speaker 2: Absolutely, there's another person in this you know, little family
feud we've got going on, which is Senator Ted Cruz,
I mean, Patrick, what do you anticipate.
Speaker 1: Are we going to see.
Speaker 2: An endorsement from him? Does that endorsement carry much weight
and sort of what do you think his role will
be in all of this?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think Cruz will probably stay out unless Trump
gets in and a real front runner emerges by the
filing deadline. But I think Cruz otherwise probably has, you know,
no political incentive to get deeply involved in this primary
with a formal endorsement or campaigning for anyone again, unless
it's clear that Trump is going to back someone, and
then that candidate kind of pulls away with it, whether
it's corn And or Packston or even you know, another candidate.
So Cruse is staying out of it, and it's you know,
a course, it's very politically awkward for him because he's
had this very fragile, you know, alliance or I don't
know if i'd call it an alliance, a relationship with corn
In over the years. I mean, he previously declined to
endorse Cornan in his uh, I'm trying to remember, in
his last in one of his last competitive primaries. But
then Cornyn did campaign for Cruz and his one of
his hard fought re election campaigns. And so, you know,
Cruse has a lot of I think, you know, it's
important to know Cruise has a lot of overlapping relationships
here when it comes to elected officials, donors, grassroots activists,
and so I don't think it's necessarily him Him declining
to endorse Cornan is necessarily, you know, should be read
as an explicit endorse, you know, de facto endorsement of Paxton.
But you know, Cruse is now, like you know, Cruise
has now served quite a long time in Texas, has
built up a lot of relationships in Washington, in Austin
and Houston, and so CRUs is deeply I think, you know,
many political conflicts of interest in this race.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's an interesting he's he's sort of an interesting role.
I mean, certainly when he came into the Senate was
such a scene as sort of I think, in many
ways the standard bearer of this more insurgent movement, and
now there, you know, I wouldn't say the movement has
like moved beyond him necessarily, but like if, certainly, if
we had a Senator Paxton, I think Senator Paxton would
maybe take up the role of like a flame thrower
in Texas's flamethrower in chief.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and you know, for what it's worth, Paxston is
doing all he can to kind of butter up Cruise
for a potential endorsement maybe down the line. And every
media interview that I've seen from Paxston since he launched
his campaign, he you know, constantly says, we have a
conservative fighter and Ted Cruz we need another conservative fighter
in that other Senate seat. And so you know that's
a contrast that really helps, you know, Paxton make the case.
But it could also, you know, try to lay the
groundwork for a Cruise endorsement down the line if Cruz
does decide to get off the sidelines.
Speaker 5: So, knowing we were going to talk about this today,
I sat down and sort of tried to prepare in
my mind the case for and against Cornan Can I
do this and get y'all to react to it?
Speaker 2: All?
Speaker 5: Right? So I'm going to do the Paxton case first, Right,
it's Paxton. The polls pretty consistently show is the more
popular politician in Texas. The most recent UT Texas Politics
poll showed a thirty percent approval rating for Cornan thirty
seven percent disapproved, so minus seven percentage points there. Paxton's
approval rating was thirty seven percent thirty four disapproved, so
a plus three percent.
Speaker 3: Right. Both have some.
Speaker 5: Kind of no opinion you know or unknown type people there,
But among GOP voters the difference is even bigger. Paxton
a plus thirty five percent net favorability according to a
u of H poll in February, Cornan a plus eighteen
net favorability. That's for people who have voted or should
be expected to vote in the GOP primary next year.
And then, as we are sort of already talked about,
Paxton just represents more of what the Republican Party is
right now than John Cornyn does this. He seems to
be the type of politician that people in that party
want right now compared to the more traditional John Cornyn.
What else am I missing there? What am I missing
in the Paxton case?
Speaker 1: I think that anything else on the past, I mean.
Speaker 4: I think that was the case for Paxton.
Speaker 3: That's case Pax, right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I will say, like, and then I do want
to hear the case for Cornyn. But like we sort
of saw a preview of this right when it turned
Paxton was challenged by George P. Bush, right, like a
little bit more of that slightly more old school versus
and that was when Paxton was in like the heat
of the you know, his legal challenges, and he won
by quite a healthy margin. So certainly there's a case
to be made for voters love them right, Yeah, all right,
so let me.
Speaker 4: Then, well, I think the big caveat there is and
I think for those of us who follow politics closely,
that twenty two primary and primary runoff was especially frustrating
and kind of inconclusive because he was running against the
Bush and in Republican circles, primary electric circles, the Bush
name is just the beginning and end of conversation for
some voters. And so you're really looking at that twenty
two primary because of the opponent, you really wonder if
that is actually an accurate gauge of what a real
race against Paxton looks like, just because again, for some
Republican primary voters they just hear the name Bush and
they just plug their ears.
Speaker 3: More or less.
Speaker 4: So it's always interesting to think about how instructive that
race really was.
Speaker 5: Yeah, and additionally, Paxton was the incumbent, right and in
this race, Paxston will not be in the incumbent exactly.
But also just the history of Republican primaries, I mean
Cornyin actually now I'm moving into the case for Cornin here,
but has a better history. Right that twenty twenty two primary,
kN Paxton, in the first round of voting won forty
two point seven percent, which means that more than half
of the primary voters voted against Ken Paxton in that race,
those same voters who are presumably going to be voting
in this election. Right now, let's talk about Cornan's last
three primaries. He faced challengers in each of those. In
two thousand and eight, he had eighty one percent of
the vote against Larry Kilgore. In twenty fourteen, he got
fifty nine percent of the vote against Steve Stockman, a
former congressman, who pulled in nineteen percent of the vote.
So Cornyin won that race by forty percent. In twenty twenty,
he got seventy six percent of the vote. Admittedly, none
of those were as strong of opponents as George P. Bush,
but I mean those are resounding victories, something that Ken
Paxton decidedly did not get in the first round of
voting the last time. In addition to that, you know,
the argument against Paxton in that primary was all his
ethical concerns. There seemed to be some success in that,
but also just Cornin's going to have a lot more
money and that's going to be the top race in
this race. He is going to be able to really
message those concerns in this race. Since that race, also,
Paxton was impeached. Sixty of the eighty five Republican members
voted to impeach him in the House. Admittedly, he then
was acquitted in the Senate, but that's notable and people
will say like, okay, but yeah, then the next Republican
primary for the House members was a bloodbath, right, But
when you kind of break down the numbers, it's a
little bit more complicated than that, because, of course Ken
Paxon was going against the Republican members who voted to
impeach him, but Greg Abbott was also going against the
Republican members who voted against him on the voucher bill,
and if you look at the numbers, Greg Abbott actually
seemed to have a lot more success there.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 5: So there were sixteen Republican members running for reelection who
voted against school vouchers in the twenty twenty four primaries.
Nine of them lost their seats to more than half.
There were forty Republicans who voted for who were running
for reelection and voted four school vouchers, but also voted
to impeach. So that basically means that Paxton was going
against them, but Greg Abbott was not. Only five of
those for forty lost their primaries, that's thirteen percent. Okay,
So what people on Cornan's case, who are on Cornan's
side would say is that Paxton actually did not demonstrate
an ability to be that effective in affecting the Republican primaries.
It was Greg Abbott who proved to be incredibly effective.
And so there is all this record of Paxxon actually
not doing that well in these primaries over the last
couple of years. Tell me evaluate that case.
Speaker 1: Patrick thoughts, Yeah, no, I agree with that.
Speaker 4: I mean, I've told anybody who will listen, you know,
in the past year that I don't think nearly as
many State House Republicans would have lost their primaries if
the State House would have just gone ahead and passed
school vouchers last session and gotten that over with. I mean,
in fact, Feelin would probably still be Speaker in my
view if that had happened, because I really believe that
the majority of those races were incumbents lost. The primary
factor was definitely the opposition, the money, the campaigning that
was brought against them because of their position on school vouchers.
You know, Paxton did not in these races that he targeted,
He did not bring nearly as much in some cases
any you know, outside money to the table in the
way that Abbott was able to bring his own campaign
funds and then outside campaign funds to the table and
races that were being targeted for school over the school
vouchers vote. So yeah, I agree that Paxton was not
a driving factor or impeachment I don't think was a
driving factor. And the eventual outcome of a lot of
those primaries where House.
Speaker 2: Incumbents lost, yeah, I think it's sort of I think
forever the question right now in Texas Republican politics, at
least right which is like we have this extremely loud,
extremely sort of a media dominant group of insurgent Republicans,
grassroots Republicans, whatever you want to call them.
Speaker 1: But how effective are they?
Speaker 3: Right?
Speaker 1: I mean, they didn't win the speakers vote.
Speaker 2: They didn't wait like there's been a number of several
of them, you know, who voted to impeach maintain their seats.
To your point, so in some ways, like to go
back to where we started, this is a question of like,
this Ken Paxton led insurgent movement is very loud, they're
very dominant, they're very you know what.
Speaker 1: We talk about a lot.
Speaker 2: This will be a test of like, well, how much
of the elector do they have on their side?
Speaker 4: I think to be clear, I think impeachment was very
helpful to Paxton's personal narrative, especially going into this primary
challenge to Cornyn. But if the question is like how
determinative was that in the last election cycle with those
incumbent losses, I don't think it was factor number one.
Speaker 5: Can we talk about the impact of this race on
the general election. We don't actually know, of course, who,
if any prominent Democrat is going to choose to run
for this office. I'm sure they'll find someone. Whether all
the equality candidate I think remains to be seen, right,
But I mean, I remember in twenty twenty four, all
my sort of non politically focused friends would be like,
is Colin Alred like actually gonna win the US Senate race?
And I was like, no, he's not going to win
the US Senate race. And if you were hoping for
a Democrat to win a statewide race, I would tell them,
here's the path for that to happen. It's Donald Trump
winning in twenty twenty four, creating a then mid term
election that inevitably goes backlash against the Republican who won
the previous year, and then Ken Paxton successfully primarying John
Cornyn in that race. I thought at that time that
that was actually maybe a credible path for a Democratic victory.
I was not expecting Trump to trounce to win Biden
at the amount you know, exactly in Texas that he did,
so I kind of maybe regret telling that to people.
But I'm curious what you think, Patrick, about how vulnerable
might can Paxton be in a general election in the
political climate that we might see in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I think the polling bears out that,
or at least my gut feeling is that he's more
vulnerable to political competition in the general election than Cornyn is.
I don't know if that's you know, the hottest take,
but I still think he is. He enters the general
election as the favorite, given that the given the political
moment that Texas is in with the state, you know,
getting appearing to get redder in statewide elections. So, you know,
I think Democrats are in Texas are always kind of
self negotiating over what the best opportunity is. It's like, oh,
if we just get you know, this nominee after a
bruising battle versus this nominee, you know, maybe we can
win it. And and sure, like I just acknowledge, I
think he would be a more you know, you would
create a better opportunity for them, But I still think
he would be the favorite in that general election.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's probably the reality is.
Speaker 2: You know, it's there's not a really as much as
that path I think probably did make sense, like before
the election, you know, the I don't know that the
backlash that I'm sure some Republicans are preparing for in
the midterms is going to make it to Texas.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 5: The other fun thing about this is now we get
a primary for attorney general as well. My favorite thing
to talk exactly exactly, and you know there are already
people in that race. John Bash, a prominent conservative attorney
who has done some work for Elon Musk. You've got
May's Middleton, prominent senator. I saw that. Joan Huffman, another
member of the Senate, told Brad Johnson from The Texan
Today that she's seriously considering her run. I think Brian Hughes,
another senator, has come up a lot. Mitch Little, who
represented Ken, extended that race. We could have a really
crowded and interesting primary for that race too.
Speaker 2: You talk about like things political reporters love, It's like, sure,
we love We'd love a corn In and Paxton battle.
We love a crowded attorney general's race where everyone gets
to sort of litigate what they think the attorney general
should do, what they think see that role as I mean,
Texas's attorney general plays such an outsized role in national
conservative politics, which.
Speaker 1: Has not always been the case.
Speaker 2: I you know, Will I won't belabor this, but you know,
twenty five years ago when John Cornant the first Republican
attorney general since reconstruction in modern Texas history. You know,
before that the attorney general's you know, was basically a
bureaucratic workhorse, and now we have, you know, this conservative,
very ideological office. And I think we can safely assume
that the Republican candidate, at least in that election will
be cut from the from the same cloth.
Speaker 5: Yeah, And there's just a lot of pent up and
in the Republican Party right now, because there's a lot
of people who have been holding their office for a
very long time, and other people who see themselves as
a governor someday or a statewide official some days. Seeing that,
of course, controllers race, there will also be something there
because of Glenn Hager going to A and M. So
it's going to be a very after you know, honestly,
like a pretty boring twenty twenty four election.
Speaker 3: Like this is going to be a fun one in
twenty twenty six. I yes, certainly on the AG race too.
Speaker 4: I'm not ready to you I mentioned Democrats in the
Senate race earlier. I'm not ready to say that Democrats
may have a better shot in the AG race. But
I do think the dynamics going into that general election
could be a lot different than the dynamics going into
the general election for Senate this AG. This Republican primary
for AG could produce a nominee who no one really
knows statewide in a general electric right, And so you know,
especially compared to a Paxton or a corn And entering
a general election, they have pretty broad statewide name ID.
But like, you know, this is just an example, but say,
like Joan Hoffman is the Republican nominee for AG, not
a very well known name statewide, And so it'll be
interesting to see if that Republican primary produces someone who
is able to make it through the fire of the
party's primary but then is like pretty unknown statewide to
a general electorate.
Speaker 5: And I'm sure you know, Democrats will try their hardest
to make this about like abortion enforcement and everything like that,
you know, and an issue that they've not really been
able to wield to their wield effectively up until now.
Speaker 2: Right, And like I'm no political consultant, but I do
think like Democrats do sort of have an opportunity to say,
like the Attorney General's office is supposed to be doing
all this bureaucratic stuff, like it is not supposed to
be this ideological you know, weapon and like restoring you
know a little bit of like we'll just enforce child
support and we'll do medicaid fraud and we'll do you know,
crime victims compensation and like leave the partisan litigation to
you know, private litigants.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well we'll see how that.
Speaker 1: I don't know, but love here's I know. Promoters love
for they love bureaucracy.
Speaker 2: They love Yeah, particularly in Texas, they love We're not
going to do Trump s bidding that works every time. Well,
we will be watching all of that and all of
this as well on what promises to be a very
very exciting run up to March twenty twenty six, which
is actually kind of a long time away. Patrick, thank
you so much for joining us. We really really appreciate
having you here, Missy.
Speaker 3: Patrick, thanks for having me.
Speaker 2: Yes, that's it for today. You can find all episodes
of the trib Cast on YouTube or wherever you find
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podcast on all of your platforms. If you'd like to
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at Tribcast at Texastribune dot org. Our producers are Rob
Avila and Chris Bobada. Our theme music is composed by
Rob and we will see you next week.