1 00:00:12,759 --> 00:00:13,960 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Trip Cast. 2 00:00:14,080 --> 00:00:17,440 Speaker 2: I'm Eleanor Klibanoff, thrilled to be joined this week by, 3 00:00:17,600 --> 00:00:19,600 as always, editor in chief Matthew Watkins. 4 00:00:19,640 --> 00:00:20,879 Speaker 1: How are you doing, Matthew doing? 5 00:00:20,879 --> 00:00:21,280 Speaker 3: All right? 6 00:00:21,879 --> 00:00:23,320 Speaker 1: Yeah? 7 00:00:23,359 --> 00:00:26,679 Speaker 2: We are very excited for both the theme of today's episode, 8 00:00:26,679 --> 00:00:30,679 where we'll be talking about the big upcoming Senate race 9 00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:36,079 in Texas, and especially excited about our guest, our former 10 00:00:36,119 --> 00:00:42,159 friend turned mortal enemy, Patrick's v Tech Patrick. 11 00:00:41,799 --> 00:00:44,039 Speaker 3: How are you come back on? I appreciate it. 12 00:00:44,159 --> 00:00:45,479 Speaker 1: Yeah. 13 00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:48,719 Speaker 2: Patrick is currently a reporter on the Washington Post politics 14 00:00:48,719 --> 00:00:51,759 breaking news team. Most of you probably know him from 15 00:00:51,799 --> 00:00:54,759 his nine year stint covering politics for us here at 16 00:00:54,759 --> 00:00:59,520 the Texas Tribune. Patrick remains, I believe you can correct 17 00:00:59,520 --> 00:01:01,880 me if I'm wrong on this. The most prolific Texas 18 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:03,479 Tribune reporter in history. 19 00:01:03,759 --> 00:01:06,599 Speaker 3: That's probably true. Yeah, yeah, I don't have numbers to 20 00:01:06,640 --> 00:01:08,040 back that up, but I'm going to say yes. 21 00:01:09,159 --> 00:01:11,079 Speaker 2: Last year, you know, he left us for the Washington Post, 22 00:01:11,079 --> 00:01:12,760 but we're thrilled to have him back here on the 23 00:01:12,799 --> 00:01:16,840 Trip Cast. Patrick, Before we jump into the race, what 24 00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:20,519 do you miss most about Texas? What could what can 25 00:01:20,560 --> 00:01:23,560 we send to you in DC? If we could transplant one, 26 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:25,319 one thing from Texas to d C. 27 00:01:25,439 --> 00:01:26,079 Speaker 1: What would you have? 28 00:01:27,799 --> 00:01:33,319 Speaker 4: Oh? Man, h just HB in general? Probably you know, 29 00:01:33,359 --> 00:01:35,920 there's specific products I could call out, but yeah, there's 30 00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:41,000 the grocery stores in d C did not compare to 31 00:01:41,280 --> 00:01:44,359 HIV in general, I would say, So that's one thing, 32 00:01:44,439 --> 00:01:48,040 And then there's plenty of restaurants and taco places that 33 00:01:48,079 --> 00:01:50,359 I could list off for you, especially coming from San 34 00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:51,239 Antonio to DC. 35 00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:53,760 Speaker 3: Saw that coming a mile away. 36 00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:55,879 Speaker 5: Yeah, Patrick, you'd be sad to know about all the 37 00:01:56,239 --> 00:02:00,519 coffee shops closing around our office start time. I'ms out 38 00:02:00,879 --> 00:02:02,840 out here in Congress. 39 00:02:03,239 --> 00:02:06,439 Speaker 2: Yeah, I will say I lived in d C for 40 00:02:06,879 --> 00:02:08,199 I went to college in DC and lived there for 41 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:11,240 a while after. And uh, maybe it's changed since, but 42 00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:13,039 when I lived there, at least the tex mex was 43 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:17,000 like egregious, like egregiously bad, very few options. 44 00:02:18,319 --> 00:02:21,520 Speaker 4: There's serviceable Mexican food to text mex at least in the. 45 00:02:21,759 --> 00:02:22,840 Speaker 3: DC proper area. 46 00:02:23,759 --> 00:02:26,120 Speaker 4: In parts of Maryland there's really good Mexican food, I 47 00:02:26,120 --> 00:02:28,639 would say, outside of DC, but in the in the 48 00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:30,879 district itself, Yeah, you got to you gotta put in 49 00:02:30,919 --> 00:02:32,240 some work to find the good places. 50 00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I'm sure you are missing HIV and tex 51 00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:39,319 mex maybe more than the Texas legislature, which we are 52 00:02:39,599 --> 00:02:40,280 knee deep. 53 00:02:40,159 --> 00:02:40,840 Speaker 1: In right now. 54 00:02:41,599 --> 00:02:44,960 Speaker 2: But we are going to look ahead to a forthcoming 55 00:02:45,039 --> 00:02:49,120 political showdown, potentially one of the biggest political battles in 56 00:02:49,159 --> 00:02:53,439 recent Texas memory, as long time incumbent Senator John Cornyn 57 00:02:53,599 --> 00:02:57,280 faces down the insurgent arm of the Republican Party in 58 00:02:57,319 --> 00:03:01,479 the physical form of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. This 59 00:03:01,599 --> 00:03:04,439 is shaping up to be a vicious, expensive primary in 60 00:03:04,479 --> 00:03:07,680 which Texas is Republican in fighting will be laid out 61 00:03:07,719 --> 00:03:10,759 on the national stage for all to witness. Feels a 62 00:03:10,759 --> 00:03:12,879 bit like, you know, when someone comes over to your 63 00:03:13,000 --> 00:03:14,840 family's house and sees your family fighting. 64 00:03:15,159 --> 00:03:16,080 Speaker 1: It's all embarrassing. 65 00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:18,599 Speaker 2: But we're you know, gonna be a gonna be a 66 00:03:18,599 --> 00:03:21,759 big people know what to expect when they come visit 67 00:03:21,759 --> 00:03:22,240 our family. 68 00:03:22,319 --> 00:03:22,919 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's true. 69 00:03:22,919 --> 00:03:25,520 Speaker 2: I don't think Texas is fighting it. They're the family 70 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:26,439 like having the fight. 71 00:03:26,319 --> 00:03:27,680 Speaker 3: At the in the front line. 72 00:03:27,759 --> 00:03:32,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly, Patrick, You've covered both of these figures for 73 00:03:32,319 --> 00:03:35,319 a long time. Let's start with Cornyn and tell us 74 00:03:35,319 --> 00:03:38,159 a little bit about you know, John Cornyn as a 75 00:03:38,159 --> 00:03:40,319 as a character and sort of what his profile looks 76 00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:41,400 like coming into this race. 77 00:03:43,240 --> 00:03:46,919 Speaker 4: Sure, well, I guess, you know, from the perspective in Washington, 78 00:03:46,919 --> 00:03:50,400 and he's coming into this reelection campaign after coming up 79 00:03:50,439 --> 00:03:52,840 short in something that he has long wanted to do, 80 00:03:52,879 --> 00:03:57,439 which is lead Senate Republicans. He narrowly lost the Senate 81 00:03:57,439 --> 00:04:00,719 Majority leader race to John Thune from South Toda right 82 00:04:00,759 --> 00:04:05,039 after the November election in twenty twenty four. For I 83 00:04:05,039 --> 00:04:07,599 think years before that, he had made clear that that 84 00:04:07,759 --> 00:04:10,319 was something that he had wanted to run for if 85 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:12,400 it ever, you know, if Mitch McConnell ever stepped aside 86 00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:16,040 from that leadership position, and you know, he made a 87 00:04:16,079 --> 00:04:17,759 good run for it, and you know, I forgot what 88 00:04:17,759 --> 00:04:20,240 the final count was, but he you know, it wasn't 89 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:22,480 like a blowout, and so it was kind of a 90 00:04:22,519 --> 00:04:26,519 disappointing loss for him. But he made pretty clear right 91 00:04:26,560 --> 00:04:29,160 after that that he planned to run for reelection, telling 92 00:04:29,199 --> 00:04:32,720 reporters that in DC, and then you know, officially launched 93 00:04:32,759 --> 00:04:36,000 his reelection campaign in March. And for now, it seems 94 00:04:36,040 --> 00:04:37,759 like he has a lot of fight left in him, 95 00:04:37,839 --> 00:04:39,360 or at least he's trying to project the image that 96 00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:41,079 he has a lot of fight left in him. I mean, 97 00:04:41,079 --> 00:04:43,959 he is coming out of this coming out of the 98 00:04:43,959 --> 00:04:47,199 gates swinging at Paxton, which sured you know, I guess 99 00:04:47,199 --> 00:04:49,199 the generous interpretations. It shows he has a lot of 100 00:04:49,199 --> 00:04:51,600 fight left in and but it also shows you know, 101 00:04:51,639 --> 00:04:54,399 the very vulnerable position that he's in in this primary, 102 00:04:54,399 --> 00:04:57,040 that he feels the need to go negative on Paxton 103 00:04:57,120 --> 00:05:00,279 so quickly. And so that's kind of I think John 104 00:05:00,319 --> 00:05:04,079 Corny summed up over the at least the recent several months. 105 00:05:04,720 --> 00:05:07,759 Speaker 2: Yeah, and then Matthew, I'll give you the tougher question, 106 00:05:07,920 --> 00:05:10,879 which is, how would you summarize Ken Paxton? 107 00:05:11,360 --> 00:05:13,040 Speaker 3: How would I summarize Kein Paxton? 108 00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:16,519 Speaker 5: So, Ken Paxton, of course has been Attorney General since 109 00:05:17,879 --> 00:05:18,720 twenty fifteen. 110 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:23,360 Speaker 3: He is a you know, a. 111 00:05:22,959 --> 00:05:27,360 Speaker 5: Controversial and a figure who brings up a lot of 112 00:05:27,399 --> 00:05:31,399 passion on both sides and has for that time. You know, 113 00:05:31,439 --> 00:05:34,399 I think people view him as very closely aligned with 114 00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:41,560 Donald Trump, famously filed a lawsuit in twenty twenty and 115 00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:45,839 seeking to overturn the election results. He's been very aggressive 116 00:05:46,000 --> 00:05:50,279 in you know, pursuing causes favored by the kind of 117 00:05:50,360 --> 00:05:53,519 hard line right of Texas that can range from you know, 118 00:05:53,600 --> 00:05:57,680 anti abortion initiatives, targeting what he perceives to be is 119 00:05:57,759 --> 00:06:01,360 voter fraud, and you know a lot of sort of 120 00:06:01,439 --> 00:06:06,199 like social issues, things related to trans kids, all that 121 00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:08,399 kind of stuff that if you if you see it 122 00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:11,399 being talked about on Fox News, Ken Paxson has probably 123 00:06:11,439 --> 00:06:14,519 filed a lawsuit related to it in the court. He 124 00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:17,160 of course, also has carried with him a lot of 125 00:06:18,319 --> 00:06:23,800 you know, ethical baggage. Famously, you know, was under indictment 126 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:26,759 for a long part of his early part of his 127 00:06:26,800 --> 00:06:32,000 tenure because he was accused of securities fraud. That case 128 00:06:32,160 --> 00:06:35,160 has since kind of gone away, and then you know, 129 00:06:35,319 --> 00:06:39,800 more recently many of his top lieutenants resigned and accused 130 00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:45,319 him of bribery. That case was investigated by the FBI, 131 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:50,480 but we learned recently that just before Trump took over 132 00:06:50,879 --> 00:06:54,639 the FBI, the Department of Justice dropped that case. And so, 133 00:06:55,639 --> 00:06:58,399 you know, he he remains he has those close ties 134 00:06:58,439 --> 00:07:00,439 with the base, He has those close ties as with 135 00:07:00,600 --> 00:07:05,120 the with the Trump administration. There are definitely people in 136 00:07:05,199 --> 00:07:07,920 the Republican Party who try to keep him at arm's 137 00:07:08,000 --> 00:07:10,959 length though, because of some of those other kind of 138 00:07:11,079 --> 00:07:12,959 areas of baggage in the world. 139 00:07:13,480 --> 00:07:16,040 Speaker 2: That was a very phenomenal recounting, you left out one 140 00:07:16,079 --> 00:07:20,279 major chapter other than that, which is he was impeached, right, 141 00:07:20,680 --> 00:07:24,480 of course he was not, unlike you know, our president 142 00:07:24,560 --> 00:07:27,800 right now, was impeached by the House, the Texas House Representatives, 143 00:07:27,839 --> 00:07:30,439 and then after having a lengthy trial in the Senate, 144 00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:34,759 the Texas Senate voted to acquit him and restore him 145 00:07:34,839 --> 00:07:35,839 to his role. 146 00:07:36,360 --> 00:07:38,480 Speaker 1: So other than that, that's. 147 00:07:38,800 --> 00:07:41,680 Speaker 3: Really maybe the most important thing. 148 00:07:41,720 --> 00:07:43,079 Speaker 1: But you know, you know, we got all the rest 149 00:07:43,079 --> 00:07:43,600 of the details. 150 00:07:43,639 --> 00:07:48,160 Speaker 2: I mean, Patrick, how I mean, there's long been the 151 00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:50,360 joke about attorney's general, like, not just in Texas but 152 00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:53,279 nationally right that it stands for like aspiring governor. It 153 00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:57,879 is often a jumping point to more to higher office. 154 00:07:58,279 --> 00:08:00,720 How surprised are you to see Paxson getting to this race, Like, 155 00:08:01,000 --> 00:08:03,279 how do we get here with paxton challenge in Cornan? 156 00:08:04,519 --> 00:08:07,160 Speaker 4: You know, not surprised at all. I mean, Paxton had 157 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:10,439 telegraphed for months that maybe even over a year, that 158 00:08:10,519 --> 00:08:13,240 he would maybe one day be interested in challenging Cornan. 159 00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:18,120 Cornan has been one of the few statewide elected Texas 160 00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:23,920 Republicans who has at least been blunt in observing Paxton's 161 00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:27,240 legal challenges. It's not like Cornan has necessarily been a 162 00:08:27,920 --> 00:08:32,759 vocal critic of Paxson's legal challenges, but you know, among 163 00:08:32,799 --> 00:08:36,960 other state wide elected Republicans, they've been largely happy to 164 00:08:37,039 --> 00:08:39,840 just kind of look the other way and try to 165 00:08:39,879 --> 00:08:44,240 remain neutral. As Paxton has encountered all these other you know, 166 00:08:44,399 --> 00:08:47,639 all these legal and ethical issues. So Cornan has stood 167 00:08:47,639 --> 00:08:51,200 out I think for at least acknowledging or expressing some 168 00:08:51,240 --> 00:08:53,919 concern about the legal and ethical issues that Paxon has had, 169 00:08:54,519 --> 00:08:56,919 and he's gotten sharper over the years. There was obviously 170 00:08:57,240 --> 00:09:00,360 that you know, tweet from Cornin to Paxton I think 171 00:09:00,440 --> 00:09:02,080 last year where he said it's hard to run from 172 00:09:02,120 --> 00:09:04,759 prison Ken, So clearly he ran, you know, one from 173 00:09:04,799 --> 00:09:07,759 expressing concern to throw in some actual political jabs. But 174 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:10,440 Cornan has stood out, I think in that regard. And 175 00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:13,919 I think there's some real personal animosity between these two men, 176 00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:16,440 and I think that's what's keeping Cornyn going here a 177 00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:16,919 little bit. 178 00:09:17,840 --> 00:09:18,039 Speaker 2: You know. 179 00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:20,960 Speaker 4: You know, I mentioned earlier that Cornin seems to be, 180 00:09:21,039 --> 00:09:23,080 you know, showing some real fight from the outset of 181 00:09:23,080 --> 00:09:25,919 this race. I think that that's inspired by a little 182 00:09:26,159 --> 00:09:30,960 bit of personal animus, you know, toward Paxton. And you know, 183 00:09:31,679 --> 00:09:34,039 even though in this day and age, in the Trump era, 184 00:09:34,639 --> 00:09:36,559 I think corn And probably feels like he can't say 185 00:09:36,559 --> 00:09:40,840 this out loud because of Trump's own scandals and the 186 00:09:40,919 --> 00:09:43,720 general tolerance for scandals inside the GOP. But I think 187 00:09:43,759 --> 00:09:48,000 Cornan believes that the Texas GOP should be embarrassed about Paxton. 188 00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:50,799 And so I think that's kind of what personally maybe 189 00:09:50,879 --> 00:09:53,360 keeping Corny and chugging along in this case, even though 190 00:09:53,399 --> 00:09:55,519 it looks like he's in the final you know, he's 191 00:09:55,559 --> 00:09:58,000 in the latter years of his political career, I. 192 00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:01,159 Speaker 5: Should just pause and ignowledge that for those of us 193 00:10:01,200 --> 00:10:05,360 who cover texts politics, who are involved in you know, 194 00:10:05,440 --> 00:10:09,360 the media world, this is just delightful, right whether or 195 00:10:09,399 --> 00:10:13,159 not we you know, yeah, we may not have a 196 00:10:13,320 --> 00:10:16,399 dog in the race, but we love interesting and exciting races. 197 00:10:16,399 --> 00:10:18,759 And I would say this one is probably the highest 198 00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:23,000 profile Republican primary in the state since maybe twenty ten 199 00:10:23,200 --> 00:10:27,200 when k Bailey Hutchison, then a sitting senator I believe, 200 00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:31,960 challenged the incumbent governor Rick Perry. And what everyone was 201 00:10:32,120 --> 00:10:35,879 super excited about, you know, this being this huge kind 202 00:10:35,879 --> 00:10:40,080 of heavy whiteweight fight in that race, it didn't really 203 00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:41,840 turn out to be that much of a fight. It 204 00:10:41,879 --> 00:10:43,720 turned out to be something of a pummeling, you know, 205 00:10:43,799 --> 00:10:48,279 Rick Perry winning by more than twenty percentage points in 206 00:10:48,320 --> 00:10:50,799 that race. But I think we see this as two 207 00:10:50,799 --> 00:10:54,720 people who loom very heavily over Texas politics going right 208 00:10:54,759 --> 00:10:58,720 after each other. Whether Cornyan would agree with this framing 209 00:10:58,799 --> 00:11:00,960 or not, I think a lot of people are viewing 210 00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:05,120 it as sort of the more traditional Republican, the one 211 00:11:05,159 --> 00:11:08,159 who has been you know, in leadership in the Senate 212 00:11:08,240 --> 00:11:12,279 for a very long time, you know, was kind of 213 00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:15,919 around before we saw this dramatic shift to the right 214 00:11:16,120 --> 00:11:18,960 in the state Republican Party, in the Republican Party in general, 215 00:11:19,320 --> 00:11:21,960 versus the sort of new type of Republican, the one 216 00:11:21,960 --> 00:11:25,639 who really ties the line close to Trump, who is 217 00:11:26,639 --> 00:11:29,279 you know, always kind of scrapping for a fight, and 218 00:11:30,679 --> 00:11:34,840 you know, Frankly is like less concerned about the traditional 219 00:11:34,919 --> 00:11:38,519 norms and rules that govern politics. And I think we're 220 00:11:38,559 --> 00:11:40,720 going to watch this and I think a lot of 221 00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:43,039 people are going to frame this is a sort of 222 00:11:43,080 --> 00:11:46,519 fight over you know, the future of the Republican Party 223 00:11:46,519 --> 00:11:47,600 in Texas, and in. 224 00:11:47,559 --> 00:11:50,279 Speaker 2: Many ways, like Ken Paxton has been the standard bearer 225 00:11:50,360 --> 00:11:52,360 for that movement, right, not just in that he is 226 00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:55,440 the most and I wouldn't even as I say, and 227 00:11:55,559 --> 00:11:57,159 so he is like sort of the most extreme in 228 00:11:57,200 --> 00:11:59,320 that in that side of the party, but he's certainly 229 00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:02,720 the most local, the most I mean, we saw this 230 00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:05,919 in like judicial races in the last election, where you know, 231 00:12:06,639 --> 00:12:09,080 Attorney General Paxson was very unhappy with the ruling and 232 00:12:09,120 --> 00:12:11,399 said basically, I'm going to go get you know, the 233 00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:13,759 judges I want. It was pretty open about that, Like, 234 00:12:13,799 --> 00:12:16,440 I don't think he would dispute that that framing, and 235 00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:19,279 with the Court of Criminal Appeals unseated three people put 236 00:12:19,279 --> 00:12:21,240 on judges you know, in at least two cases who 237 00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:24,279 who are very closely allied with him, So he seems 238 00:12:24,399 --> 00:12:26,559 pretty you know, in many ways. I think he's been 239 00:12:26,559 --> 00:12:28,519 preparing for this fight for for a long time, and 240 00:12:28,720 --> 00:12:30,759 you know it's going to be a big national. 241 00:12:31,919 --> 00:12:32,159 Speaker 1: Route. 242 00:12:32,200 --> 00:12:34,039 Speaker 2: I mean, I am curious, though, Patrick, what is your 243 00:12:34,039 --> 00:12:37,480 sense of how outside of Texas maybe and even within 244 00:12:37,559 --> 00:12:40,200 you know, tech the Texas GOP, how much appetite is 245 00:12:40,240 --> 00:12:45,960 there for this big, bloody, vicious, potentially expensive primary in Texas, 246 00:12:46,039 --> 00:12:48,159 a state that you know otherwise you know, I think 247 00:12:48,200 --> 00:12:50,600 people think corner maybe could could you know, walk into 248 00:12:50,639 --> 00:12:52,360 another term if you wanted to, if you didn't face 249 00:12:52,399 --> 00:12:53,360 a major challenge. 250 00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:57,879 Speaker 4: Sure, I mean, I think from Republican you know operatives 251 00:12:57,879 --> 00:13:00,000 in DC who are aligned with corn In or sympathy 252 00:13:00,320 --> 00:13:02,080 to Corny, and you know, they view this as a 253 00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:05,799 waste of time and money during a midterm cycle where 254 00:13:06,879 --> 00:13:09,039 you know, historically the trends are against them, but they 255 00:13:09,039 --> 00:13:10,799 do have a three seat majority in the Senate and 256 00:13:10,840 --> 00:13:13,759 some opportunities to grow that majority. And so I think 257 00:13:13,799 --> 00:13:16,879 even Cornan himself has voiced this concern. It's obviously a 258 00:13:16,919 --> 00:13:20,200 self serving concern, but you know, the concern that we're 259 00:13:20,240 --> 00:13:22,919 going to spend tens of millions, over one hundred million 260 00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:26,720 dollars on a statewide primary in Texas when at least 261 00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:29,159 some of that money could be going to trying to 262 00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:34,440 flip open Senate seats in places like Michigan, New Hampshire, Minnesota. 263 00:13:34,559 --> 00:13:37,039 So I think that's the pro you know, corn In 264 00:13:37,639 --> 00:13:41,399 view in DC. But obviously, you know, the Senate Republican 265 00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:44,399 conference has become just more and more trumpy. It's still 266 00:13:44,399 --> 00:13:48,480 not as trumpy as House Republicans are. Obviously House Republicans 267 00:13:48,519 --> 00:13:51,080 are very pro Trump rowdy bunch. But you have seen 268 00:13:51,120 --> 00:13:55,240 the remaking of the Senate, you know, Republican conference into 269 00:13:55,240 --> 00:13:58,320 definitely a more pro Trump body, and for people who 270 00:13:58,360 --> 00:14:00,279 want to see it continue in this direction, this is 271 00:14:00,279 --> 00:14:02,120 a very pivotal fight in that. 272 00:14:02,360 --> 00:14:07,240 Speaker 2: Trend and how much of this comes down to the 273 00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:10,360 big man himself the endorsement from President Trump. 274 00:14:11,279 --> 00:14:12,519 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I was going to say earlier. 275 00:14:12,559 --> 00:14:15,039 Speaker 4: I mean, we could spend hours talking about all the 276 00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:17,639 different dynamics of this race and the pros and cons 277 00:14:17,639 --> 00:14:19,960 of each candidate, But really, I think this is going 278 00:14:20,039 --> 00:14:22,960 to turn on what Trump ultimately chooses to do in 279 00:14:23,000 --> 00:14:26,120 this race. You know, he had I think he weighed 280 00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:28,519 in on this race for the first time publicly last weekend. 281 00:14:28,559 --> 00:14:31,480 He told reporters that he, you know, knows and respects 282 00:14:31,519 --> 00:14:33,440 both men, or knows and likes both men, but would 283 00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:37,360 make an endorsement at quote the appropriate time. Paxton himself 284 00:14:37,399 --> 00:14:39,759 has said, I think in one of his post announcement interviews, 285 00:14:39,759 --> 00:14:43,360 that he doesn't expect Trump to endorse until closer to 286 00:14:43,399 --> 00:14:46,519 the primary in March twenty twenty six. So right now, 287 00:14:46,559 --> 00:14:49,559 the vibes are clearly that Trump is not itching to 288 00:14:49,639 --> 00:14:52,159 jump into this race, And I think for Paxton one 289 00:14:52,159 --> 00:14:55,320 of his immediate challenges in this race is to try 290 00:14:55,320 --> 00:14:59,080 to keep out a credible third candidate, whether that's someone 291 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:03,440 like Wesley congressman from Houston. I know, Beth Van Dyne, 292 00:15:03,639 --> 00:15:06,759 congresswoman from the Dallas area. Her name also gets tossed around. 293 00:15:07,320 --> 00:15:09,799 So Paxton, you know, I think he's got some short 294 00:15:09,879 --> 00:15:12,679 term He's got some you know, short term tasks he 295 00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:14,799 needs to fulfill, and then some you know in terms 296 00:15:14,840 --> 00:15:17,440 of keeping out a third credible candidate, and then maybe 297 00:15:17,480 --> 00:15:19,360 some medium term tasks in terms of trying to lock 298 00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:23,039 down trump endorsement or continue to keep Trump out of 299 00:15:23,039 --> 00:15:25,360 the race, which I'm sure he would view as a 300 00:15:25,399 --> 00:15:28,240 win in a way as well. So that's I think, 301 00:15:28,320 --> 00:15:30,159 you know what Paxton's to do list is right now. 302 00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:34,039 Speaker 5: Yeah, you kind of contrast this race to the lieutenant 303 00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:37,799 governor's race, right where Dan Patrick announced reelection and Trump 304 00:15:37,919 --> 00:15:42,399 immediately endorsed him, right, you know, we at least don't 305 00:15:42,519 --> 00:15:46,360 have that situation in Texas. You know, it seems like 306 00:15:46,440 --> 00:15:50,120 Cornin has made some efforts in the past year or 307 00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:52,679 so to sort of mend some fences with some of 308 00:15:52,720 --> 00:15:55,720 the people in the grassroots who have fought against him. 309 00:15:55,840 --> 00:15:58,200 There's kind of this famous moment in the twenty twenty 310 00:15:58,480 --> 00:16:02,679 two State Republican Convention when Cornan spoke on stage and 311 00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:06,519 was essentially booed off stage. You know, he has We 312 00:16:06,559 --> 00:16:09,240 had an article from Matthew Choy a few months ago 313 00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:11,799 talking about how he's kind of tried to repair that relationship. 314 00:16:11,879 --> 00:16:15,840 You know, he has voted with Trump, He backed most, 315 00:16:15,879 --> 00:16:19,440 if not all, of Trump's nominees. This you know, this 316 00:16:19,559 --> 00:16:24,120 year early in Trump's terms, So you know, can he 317 00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:28,639 kind of keep that relationship friendly enough to keep Trump 318 00:16:28,639 --> 00:16:32,399 out of the race. I think is definitely an interesting question, right. 319 00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:34,159 Speaker 2: I mean, and we've talked about this on the state level, 320 00:16:34,279 --> 00:16:38,519 Like you know, the thin fine like distinctions we draw 321 00:16:38,639 --> 00:16:43,080 between different candidates. Right, Cornyn, as Matthew has reported on 322 00:16:43,200 --> 00:16:46,080 for US, like voted with Trump's agenda ninety two percent 323 00:16:46,080 --> 00:16:48,799 of the time during his first President Trump's first term 324 00:16:49,039 --> 00:16:52,120 and supported all of his nominees. Like, certainly Cornyn has 325 00:16:52,159 --> 00:16:55,320 been very aligned with President Trump. He is I think 326 00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:57,519 a little haunted by he was. I believe it was 327 00:16:57,519 --> 00:17:00,600 in twenty twenty three when he said ahead of the 328 00:17:00,600 --> 00:17:03,440 twenty twenty four election, you know that Trump's time had 329 00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:06,119 passed him by. He has done a lot since then 330 00:17:06,160 --> 00:17:07,920 to sort of try to work his way back in. 331 00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:10,599 He posted a photo on x like a couple of 332 00:17:10,599 --> 00:17:13,440 weeks ago before Paxston got in the race of him 333 00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:15,519 like reading the art of the deal, which I felt 334 00:17:15,599 --> 00:17:15,839 was a. 335 00:17:15,759 --> 00:17:19,319 Speaker 1: Little on the nose personally, but you know, people. 336 00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:22,519 Speaker 2: Like it, so yeah, I think certainly a lot of 337 00:17:22,559 --> 00:17:25,079 like you said, a lot of this speculation really comes 338 00:17:25,079 --> 00:17:26,799 down to one man. 339 00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:27,640 Speaker 3: Yeah. 340 00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:30,359 Speaker 5: The other thing people really hit Corning on was his 341 00:17:30,880 --> 00:17:34,839 involvement in a really the only gun safety bill to 342 00:17:34,880 --> 00:17:37,240 pass the Senate in recent years. This was in twenty 343 00:17:37,279 --> 00:17:40,720 twenty two, after the Uvaldi shooting. It was a bill 344 00:17:40,799 --> 00:17:44,119 that increased funding for mental health and incentivized states to 345 00:17:44,119 --> 00:17:46,000 pass laws that keep guns out of the hands of 346 00:17:46,039 --> 00:17:48,400 people who are found by the courts to be thrust 347 00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:50,759 to themselves or others. Are you know, known as red 348 00:17:50,759 --> 00:17:53,480 flag laws. You know, I think a lot of people 349 00:17:53,559 --> 00:17:55,599 looked pointed at that and said, you know, this is 350 00:17:55,640 --> 00:18:00,680 a very very very modest gun safety law. But anytime 351 00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:03,920 you pass anything that can be called a gun safety law, 352 00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:07,400 you're gonna engender kind of push back from the Republican right, 353 00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:09,000 and that indeed did happen. 354 00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:10,400 Speaker 3: I'm sure we'll see. 355 00:18:10,240 --> 00:18:12,480 Speaker 5: That be brought up during the legislative I mean during 356 00:18:12,519 --> 00:18:14,559 the primary this year. 357 00:18:14,839 --> 00:18:19,519 Speaker 2: Absolutely, there's another person in this you know, little family 358 00:18:19,559 --> 00:18:22,279 feud we've got going on, which is Senator Ted Cruz, 359 00:18:22,400 --> 00:18:24,240 I mean, Patrick, what do you anticipate. 360 00:18:24,599 --> 00:18:25,480 Speaker 1: Are we going to see. 361 00:18:25,279 --> 00:18:29,079 Speaker 2: An endorsement from him? Does that endorsement carry much weight 362 00:18:29,119 --> 00:18:30,759 and sort of what do you think his role will 363 00:18:30,799 --> 00:18:31,400 be in all of this? 364 00:18:32,319 --> 00:18:36,000 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think Cruz will probably stay out unless Trump 365 00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:38,640 gets in and a real front runner emerges by the 366 00:18:38,640 --> 00:18:42,559 filing deadline. But I think Cruz otherwise probably has, you know, 367 00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:46,680 no political incentive to get deeply involved in this primary 368 00:18:46,680 --> 00:18:50,079 with a formal endorsement or campaigning for anyone again, unless 369 00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:52,359 it's clear that Trump is going to back someone, and 370 00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:54,279 then that candidate kind of pulls away with it, whether 371 00:18:54,319 --> 00:18:56,960 it's corn And or Packston or even you know, another candidate. 372 00:18:57,079 --> 00:18:59,599 So Cruse is staying out of it, and it's you know, 373 00:18:59,839 --> 00:19:02,200 a course, it's very politically awkward for him because he's 374 00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:05,279 had this very fragile, you know, alliance or I don't 375 00:19:05,279 --> 00:19:07,319 know if i'd call it an alliance, a relationship with corn 376 00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:10,319 In over the years. I mean, he previously declined to 377 00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:14,200 endorse Cornan in his uh, I'm trying to remember, in 378 00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:17,200 his last in one of his last competitive primaries. But 379 00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:19,799 then Cornyn did campaign for Cruz and his one of 380 00:19:19,839 --> 00:19:23,160 his hard fought re election campaigns. And so, you know, 381 00:19:23,799 --> 00:19:26,240 Cruse has a lot of I think, you know, it's 382 00:19:26,279 --> 00:19:30,359 important to know Cruise has a lot of overlapping relationships 383 00:19:30,400 --> 00:19:34,000 here when it comes to elected officials, donors, grassroots activists, 384 00:19:34,039 --> 00:19:36,960 and so I don't think it's necessarily him Him declining 385 00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:40,240 to endorse Cornan is necessarily, you know, should be read 386 00:19:40,279 --> 00:19:43,839 as an explicit endorse, you know, de facto endorsement of Paxton. 387 00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:46,920 But you know, Cruse is now, like you know, Cruise 388 00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:48,839 has now served quite a long time in Texas, has 389 00:19:48,839 --> 00:19:52,160 built up a lot of relationships in Washington, in Austin 390 00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:56,240 and Houston, and so CRUs is deeply I think, you know, 391 00:19:57,039 --> 00:19:59,200 many political conflicts of interest in this race. 392 00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:03,599 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's an interesting he's he's sort of an interesting role. 393 00:20:03,599 --> 00:20:05,920 I mean, certainly when he came into the Senate was 394 00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:07,839 such a scene as sort of I think, in many 395 00:20:07,839 --> 00:20:10,599 ways the standard bearer of this more insurgent movement, and 396 00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:14,480 now there, you know, I wouldn't say the movement has 397 00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:17,519 like moved beyond him necessarily, but like if, certainly, if 398 00:20:17,519 --> 00:20:20,279 we had a Senator Paxton, I think Senator Paxton would 399 00:20:20,519 --> 00:20:23,680 maybe take up the role of like a flame thrower 400 00:20:23,759 --> 00:20:25,839 in Texas's flamethrower in chief. 401 00:20:27,039 --> 00:20:29,559 Speaker 4: Yeah, and you know, for what it's worth, Paxston is 402 00:20:29,599 --> 00:20:33,440 doing all he can to kind of butter up Cruise 403 00:20:33,559 --> 00:20:36,160 for a potential endorsement maybe down the line. And every 404 00:20:36,319 --> 00:20:38,720 media interview that I've seen from Paxston since he launched 405 00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:41,200 his campaign, he you know, constantly says, we have a 406 00:20:41,279 --> 00:20:44,079 conservative fighter and Ted Cruz we need another conservative fighter 407 00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:46,759 in that other Senate seat. And so you know that's 408 00:20:46,759 --> 00:20:50,000 a contrast that really helps, you know, Paxton make the case. 409 00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:51,880 But it could also, you know, try to lay the 410 00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:54,079 groundwork for a Cruise endorsement down the line if Cruz 411 00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:55,839 does decide to get off the sidelines. 412 00:20:56,359 --> 00:20:58,079 Speaker 5: So, knowing we were going to talk about this today, 413 00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:01,160 I sat down and sort of tried to prepare in 414 00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:04,799 my mind the case for and against Cornan Can I 415 00:21:04,839 --> 00:21:06,319 do this and get y'all to react to it? 416 00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:06,599 Speaker 2: All? 417 00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:09,279 Speaker 5: Right? So I'm going to do the Paxton case first, Right, 418 00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:14,119 it's Paxton. The polls pretty consistently show is the more 419 00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:19,480 popular politician in Texas. The most recent UT Texas Politics 420 00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:23,599 poll showed a thirty percent approval rating for Cornan thirty 421 00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:27,759 seven percent disapproved, so minus seven percentage points there. Paxton's 422 00:21:27,799 --> 00:21:31,680 approval rating was thirty seven percent thirty four disapproved, so 423 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:32,960 a plus three percent. 424 00:21:33,079 --> 00:21:34,680 Speaker 3: Right. Both have some. 425 00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:39,319 Speaker 5: Kind of no opinion you know or unknown type people there, 426 00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:43,519 But among GOP voters the difference is even bigger. Paxton 427 00:21:43,599 --> 00:21:47,400 a plus thirty five percent net favorability according to a 428 00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:51,599 u of H poll in February, Cornan a plus eighteen 429 00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:57,160 net favorability. That's for people who have voted or should 430 00:21:57,160 --> 00:22:00,000 be expected to vote in the GOP primary next year. 431 00:22:00,559 --> 00:22:02,480 And then, as we are sort of already talked about, 432 00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:07,240 Paxton just represents more of what the Republican Party is 433 00:22:07,519 --> 00:22:10,839 right now than John Cornyn does this. He seems to 434 00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:14,519 be the type of politician that people in that party 435 00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:18,359 want right now compared to the more traditional John Cornyn. 436 00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:20,359 What else am I missing there? What am I missing 437 00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:22,079 in the Paxton case? 438 00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:24,759 Speaker 1: I think that anything else on the past, I mean. 439 00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:26,440 Speaker 4: I think that was the case for Paxton. 440 00:22:26,519 --> 00:22:28,079 Speaker 3: That's case Pax, right. 441 00:22:28,079 --> 00:22:29,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, I will say, like, and then I do want 442 00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:31,680 to hear the case for Cornyn. But like we sort 443 00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:33,880 of saw a preview of this right when it turned 444 00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:36,960 Paxton was challenged by George P. Bush, right, like a 445 00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:40,160 little bit more of that slightly more old school versus 446 00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:43,039 and that was when Paxton was in like the heat 447 00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:46,279 of the you know, his legal challenges, and he won 448 00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:50,599 by quite a healthy margin. So certainly there's a case 449 00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:53,400 to be made for voters love them right, Yeah, all right, 450 00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:53,960 so let me. 451 00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:56,279 Speaker 4: Then, well, I think the big caveat there is and 452 00:22:56,319 --> 00:22:58,799 I think for those of us who follow politics closely, 453 00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:02,960 that twenty two primary and primary runoff was especially frustrating 454 00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:06,640 and kind of inconclusive because he was running against the 455 00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:10,680 Bush and in Republican circles, primary electric circles, the Bush 456 00:23:10,759 --> 00:23:13,079 name is just the beginning and end of conversation for 457 00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:15,920 some voters. And so you're really looking at that twenty 458 00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:19,680 two primary because of the opponent, you really wonder if 459 00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:23,119 that is actually an accurate gauge of what a real 460 00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:27,279 race against Paxton looks like, just because again, for some 461 00:23:27,319 --> 00:23:30,519 Republican primary voters they just hear the name Bush and 462 00:23:30,559 --> 00:23:32,079 they just plug their ears. 463 00:23:31,759 --> 00:23:32,359 Speaker 3: More or less. 464 00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:35,400 Speaker 4: So it's always interesting to think about how instructive that 465 00:23:35,519 --> 00:23:36,200 race really was. 466 00:23:36,519 --> 00:23:40,000 Speaker 5: Yeah, and additionally, Paxton was the incumbent, right and in 467 00:23:40,039 --> 00:23:42,519 this race, Paxston will not be in the incumbent exactly. 468 00:23:42,519 --> 00:23:45,319 But also just the history of Republican primaries, I mean 469 00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:48,519 Cornyin actually now I'm moving into the case for Cornin here, 470 00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:53,000 but has a better history. Right that twenty twenty two primary, 471 00:23:53,039 --> 00:23:55,759 kN Paxton, in the first round of voting won forty 472 00:23:55,799 --> 00:23:58,880 two point seven percent, which means that more than half 473 00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:02,200 of the primary voters voted against Ken Paxton in that race, 474 00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:04,839 those same voters who are presumably going to be voting 475 00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:09,400 in this election. Right now, let's talk about Cornan's last 476 00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:12,440 three primaries. He faced challengers in each of those. In 477 00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:14,960 two thousand and eight, he had eighty one percent of 478 00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:18,480 the vote against Larry Kilgore. In twenty fourteen, he got 479 00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:22,519 fifty nine percent of the vote against Steve Stockman, a 480 00:24:22,519 --> 00:24:25,279 former congressman, who pulled in nineteen percent of the vote. 481 00:24:25,319 --> 00:24:28,480 So Cornyin won that race by forty percent. In twenty twenty, 482 00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:31,599 he got seventy six percent of the vote. Admittedly, none 483 00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:34,400 of those were as strong of opponents as George P. Bush, 484 00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:37,480 but I mean those are resounding victories, something that Ken 485 00:24:37,519 --> 00:24:41,160 Paxton decidedly did not get in the first round of 486 00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:44,519 voting the last time. In addition to that, you know, 487 00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:48,079 the argument against Paxton in that primary was all his 488 00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:50,960 ethical concerns. There seemed to be some success in that, 489 00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:53,359 but also just Cornin's going to have a lot more 490 00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:56,519 money and that's going to be the top race in 491 00:24:56,559 --> 00:24:59,200 this race. He is going to be able to really 492 00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:04,359 message those concerns in this race. Since that race, also, 493 00:25:04,799 --> 00:25:09,039 Paxton was impeached. Sixty of the eighty five Republican members 494 00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:12,559 voted to impeach him in the House. Admittedly, he then 495 00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:16,039 was acquitted in the Senate, but that's notable and people 496 00:25:16,079 --> 00:25:19,400 will say like, okay, but yeah, then the next Republican 497 00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:22,880 primary for the House members was a bloodbath, right, But 498 00:25:23,839 --> 00:25:26,640 when you kind of break down the numbers, it's a 499 00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:29,200 little bit more complicated than that, because, of course Ken 500 00:25:29,279 --> 00:25:31,839 Paxon was going against the Republican members who voted to 501 00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:35,079 impeach him, but Greg Abbott was also going against the 502 00:25:35,119 --> 00:25:38,079 Republican members who voted against him on the voucher bill, 503 00:25:38,279 --> 00:25:41,119 and if you look at the numbers, Greg Abbott actually 504 00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:43,119 seemed to have a lot more success there. 505 00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:43,440 Speaker 3: Right. 506 00:25:43,519 --> 00:25:46,920 Speaker 5: So there were sixteen Republican members running for reelection who 507 00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:51,400 voted against school vouchers in the twenty twenty four primaries. 508 00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:54,119 Nine of them lost their seats to more than half. 509 00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:58,519 There were forty Republicans who voted for who were running 510 00:25:58,519 --> 00:26:02,720 for reelection and voted four school vouchers, but also voted 511 00:26:02,759 --> 00:26:06,400 to impeach. So that basically means that Paxton was going 512 00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:10,200 against them, but Greg Abbott was not. Only five of 513 00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:14,559 those for forty lost their primaries, that's thirteen percent. Okay, 514 00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:19,359 So what people on Cornan's case, who are on Cornan's 515 00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:24,119 side would say is that Paxton actually did not demonstrate 516 00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:28,599 an ability to be that effective in affecting the Republican primaries. 517 00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:31,400 It was Greg Abbott who proved to be incredibly effective. 518 00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:35,880 And so there is all this record of Paxxon actually 519 00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:38,720 not doing that well in these primaries over the last 520 00:26:38,759 --> 00:26:42,559 couple of years. Tell me evaluate that case. 521 00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:45,319 Speaker 1: Patrick thoughts, Yeah, no, I agree with that. 522 00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:47,559 Speaker 4: I mean, I've told anybody who will listen, you know, 523 00:26:47,599 --> 00:26:50,799 in the past year that I don't think nearly as 524 00:26:50,799 --> 00:26:54,279 many State House Republicans would have lost their primaries if 525 00:26:54,319 --> 00:26:56,240 the State House would have just gone ahead and passed 526 00:26:56,599 --> 00:26:59,400 school vouchers last session and gotten that over with. I mean, 527 00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:02,079 in fact, Feelin would probably still be Speaker in my 528 00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:06,000 view if that had happened, because I really believe that 529 00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:10,160 the majority of those races were incumbents lost. The primary 530 00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:14,440 factor was definitely the opposition, the money, the campaigning that 531 00:27:14,519 --> 00:27:17,839 was brought against them because of their position on school vouchers. 532 00:27:18,559 --> 00:27:21,880 You know, Paxton did not in these races that he targeted, 533 00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:26,039 He did not bring nearly as much in some cases 534 00:27:26,079 --> 00:27:28,319 any you know, outside money to the table in the 535 00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:31,039 way that Abbott was able to bring his own campaign 536 00:27:31,039 --> 00:27:33,920 funds and then outside campaign funds to the table and 537 00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:36,440 races that were being targeted for school over the school 538 00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:40,279 vouchers vote. So yeah, I agree that Paxton was not 539 00:27:40,559 --> 00:27:43,359 a driving factor or impeachment I don't think was a 540 00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:45,960 driving factor. And the eventual outcome of a lot of 541 00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:47,519 those primaries where House. 542 00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:50,920 Speaker 2: Incumbents lost, yeah, I think it's sort of I think 543 00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:54,440 forever the question right now in Texas Republican politics, at 544 00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:57,319 least right which is like we have this extremely loud, 545 00:27:57,480 --> 00:28:05,240 extremely sort of a media dominant group of insurgent Republicans, 546 00:28:05,279 --> 00:28:08,160 grassroots Republicans, whatever you want to call them. 547 00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:09,359 Speaker 1: But how effective are they? 548 00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:09,559 Speaker 3: Right? 549 00:28:09,559 --> 00:28:11,079 Speaker 1: I mean, they didn't win the speakers vote. 550 00:28:11,079 --> 00:28:14,240 Speaker 2: They didn't wait like there's been a number of several 551 00:28:14,279 --> 00:28:18,000 of them, you know, who voted to impeach maintain their seats. 552 00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:20,759 To your point, so in some ways, like to go 553 00:28:20,799 --> 00:28:23,000 back to where we started, this is a question of like, 554 00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:27,960 this Ken Paxton led insurgent movement is very loud, they're 555 00:28:28,079 --> 00:28:31,240 very dominant, they're very you know what. 556 00:28:31,279 --> 00:28:32,200 Speaker 1: We talk about a lot. 557 00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:35,079 Speaker 2: This will be a test of like, well, how much 558 00:28:35,079 --> 00:28:38,000 of the elector do they have on their side? 559 00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:40,240 Speaker 4: I think to be clear, I think impeachment was very 560 00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:43,640 helpful to Paxton's personal narrative, especially going into this primary 561 00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:47,000 challenge to Cornyn. But if the question is like how 562 00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:49,920 determinative was that in the last election cycle with those 563 00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:53,200 incumbent losses, I don't think it was factor number one. 564 00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:56,599 Speaker 5: Can we talk about the impact of this race on 565 00:28:56,759 --> 00:29:00,240 the general election. We don't actually know, of course, who, 566 00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:03,759 if any prominent Democrat is going to choose to run 567 00:29:03,759 --> 00:29:05,680 for this office. I'm sure they'll find someone. Whether all 568 00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:08,160 the equality candidate I think remains to be seen, right, 569 00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:11,920 But I mean, I remember in twenty twenty four, all 570 00:29:12,039 --> 00:29:15,839 my sort of non politically focused friends would be like, 571 00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:18,720 is Colin Alred like actually gonna win the US Senate race? 572 00:29:18,759 --> 00:29:20,279 And I was like, no, he's not going to win 573 00:29:20,319 --> 00:29:22,599 the US Senate race. And if you were hoping for 574 00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:26,359 a Democrat to win a statewide race, I would tell them, 575 00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:29,079 here's the path for that to happen. It's Donald Trump 576 00:29:29,279 --> 00:29:33,240 winning in twenty twenty four, creating a then mid term 577 00:29:33,279 --> 00:29:38,599 election that inevitably goes backlash against the Republican who won 578 00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:43,240 the previous year, and then Ken Paxton successfully primarying John 579 00:29:43,279 --> 00:29:46,160 Cornyn in that race. I thought at that time that 580 00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:49,359 that was actually maybe a credible path for a Democratic victory. 581 00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:53,519 I was not expecting Trump to trounce to win Biden 582 00:29:53,839 --> 00:29:58,279 at the amount you know, exactly in Texas that he did, 583 00:29:58,359 --> 00:30:02,039 so I kind of maybe regret telling that to people. 584 00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:06,160 But I'm curious what you think, Patrick, about how vulnerable 585 00:30:07,319 --> 00:30:11,759 might can Paxton be in a general election in the 586 00:30:11,799 --> 00:30:14,680 political climate that we might see in twenty twenty six. 587 00:30:16,319 --> 00:30:18,480 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I think the polling bears out that, 588 00:30:19,119 --> 00:30:21,240 or at least my gut feeling is that he's more 589 00:30:21,319 --> 00:30:25,200 vulnerable to political competition in the general election than Cornyn is. 590 00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:27,440 I don't know if that's you know, the hottest take, 591 00:30:27,759 --> 00:30:29,680 but I still think he is. He enters the general 592 00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:32,519 election as the favorite, given that the given the political 593 00:30:32,519 --> 00:30:35,440 moment that Texas is in with the state, you know, 594 00:30:35,519 --> 00:30:40,160 getting appearing to get redder in statewide elections. So, you know, 595 00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:45,359 I think Democrats are in Texas are always kind of 596 00:30:45,359 --> 00:30:48,319 self negotiating over what the best opportunity is. It's like, oh, 597 00:30:48,319 --> 00:30:51,079 if we just get you know, this nominee after a 598 00:30:51,119 --> 00:30:54,839 bruising battle versus this nominee, you know, maybe we can 599 00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:56,640 win it. And and sure, like I just acknowledge, I 600 00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:58,160 think he would be a more you know, you would 601 00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:01,240 create a better opportunity for them, But I still think 602 00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:03,000 he would be the favorite in that general election. 603 00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:08,079 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's probably the reality is. 604 00:31:08,119 --> 00:31:10,960 Speaker 2: You know, it's there's not a really as much as 605 00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:12,920 that path I think probably did make sense, like before 606 00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:17,960 the election, you know, the I don't know that the 607 00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:21,880 backlash that I'm sure some Republicans are preparing for in 608 00:31:21,920 --> 00:31:23,839 the midterms is going to make it to Texas. 609 00:31:24,279 --> 00:31:24,880 Speaker 1: Yeah. 610 00:31:25,119 --> 00:31:27,359 Speaker 5: The other fun thing about this is now we get 611 00:31:27,359 --> 00:31:31,079 a primary for attorney general as well. My favorite thing 612 00:31:31,079 --> 00:31:33,799 to talk exactly exactly, and you know there are already 613 00:31:33,799 --> 00:31:37,440 people in that race. John Bash, a prominent conservative attorney 614 00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:40,799 who has done some work for Elon Musk. You've got 615 00:31:40,839 --> 00:31:47,279 May's Middleton, prominent senator. I saw that. Joan Huffman, another 616 00:31:47,599 --> 00:31:51,640 member of the Senate, told Brad Johnson from The Texan 617 00:31:51,720 --> 00:31:55,359 Today that she's seriously considering her run. I think Brian Hughes, 618 00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:58,960 another senator, has come up a lot. Mitch Little, who 619 00:31:59,039 --> 00:32:02,559 represented Ken, extended that race. We could have a really 620 00:32:04,279 --> 00:32:07,799 crowded and interesting primary for that race too. 621 00:32:07,839 --> 00:32:10,640 Speaker 2: You talk about like things political reporters love, It's like, sure, 622 00:32:10,799 --> 00:32:13,039 we love We'd love a corn In and Paxton battle. 623 00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:17,519 We love a crowded attorney general's race where everyone gets 624 00:32:17,519 --> 00:32:20,559 to sort of litigate what they think the attorney general 625 00:32:20,559 --> 00:32:22,599 should do, what they think see that role as I mean, 626 00:32:22,599 --> 00:32:26,480 Texas's attorney general plays such an outsized role in national 627 00:32:26,559 --> 00:32:28,920 conservative politics, which. 628 00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:29,680 Speaker 1: Has not always been the case. 629 00:32:29,759 --> 00:32:32,759 Speaker 2: I you know, Will I won't belabor this, but you know, 630 00:32:32,799 --> 00:32:35,440 twenty five years ago when John Cornant the first Republican 631 00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:40,319 attorney general since reconstruction in modern Texas history. You know, 632 00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:44,039 before that the attorney general's you know, was basically a 633 00:32:44,079 --> 00:32:47,240 bureaucratic workhorse, and now we have, you know, this conservative, 634 00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:52,000 very ideological office. And I think we can safely assume 635 00:32:52,359 --> 00:32:55,359 that the Republican candidate, at least in that election will 636 00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:57,960 be cut from the from the same cloth. 637 00:32:58,160 --> 00:33:00,400 Speaker 5: Yeah, And there's just a lot of pent up and 638 00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:02,440 in the Republican Party right now, because there's a lot 639 00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:04,079 of people who have been holding their office for a 640 00:33:04,160 --> 00:33:07,279 very long time, and other people who see themselves as 641 00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:10,240 a governor someday or a statewide official some days. Seeing that, 642 00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:13,559 of course, controllers race, there will also be something there 643 00:33:13,599 --> 00:33:15,519 because of Glenn Hager going to A and M. So 644 00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:19,279 it's going to be a very after you know, honestly, 645 00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:21,680 like a pretty boring twenty twenty four election. 646 00:33:21,519 --> 00:33:22,720 Speaker 3: Like this is going to be a fun one in 647 00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:26,559 twenty twenty six. I yes, certainly on the AG race too. 648 00:33:26,759 --> 00:33:28,720 Speaker 4: I'm not ready to you I mentioned Democrats in the 649 00:33:28,759 --> 00:33:31,400 Senate race earlier. I'm not ready to say that Democrats 650 00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:33,039 may have a better shot in the AG race. But 651 00:33:33,079 --> 00:33:36,039 I do think the dynamics going into that general election 652 00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:38,799 could be a lot different than the dynamics going into 653 00:33:38,799 --> 00:33:42,200 the general election for Senate this AG. This Republican primary 654 00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:45,119 for AG could produce a nominee who no one really 655 00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:48,920 knows statewide in a general electric right, And so you know, 656 00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:52,279 especially compared to a Paxton or a corn And entering 657 00:33:52,319 --> 00:33:55,519 a general election, they have pretty broad statewide name ID. 658 00:33:56,000 --> 00:33:57,960 But like, you know, this is just an example, but say, 659 00:33:58,000 --> 00:34:01,680 like Joan Hoffman is the Republican nominee for AG, not 660 00:34:01,799 --> 00:34:04,880 a very well known name statewide, And so it'll be 661 00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:08,480 interesting to see if that Republican primary produces someone who 662 00:34:08,519 --> 00:34:10,400 is able to make it through the fire of the 663 00:34:11,119 --> 00:34:15,119 party's primary but then is like pretty unknown statewide to 664 00:34:15,159 --> 00:34:16,119 a general electorate. 665 00:34:16,519 --> 00:34:19,119 Speaker 5: And I'm sure you know, Democrats will try their hardest 666 00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:22,880 to make this about like abortion enforcement and everything like that, 667 00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:25,360 you know, and an issue that they've not really been 668 00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:29,719 able to wield to their wield effectively up until now. 669 00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:32,360 Speaker 2: Right, And like I'm no political consultant, but I do 670 00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:34,800 think like Democrats do sort of have an opportunity to say, 671 00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:37,119 like the Attorney General's office is supposed to be doing 672 00:34:37,119 --> 00:34:39,360 all this bureaucratic stuff, like it is not supposed to 673 00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:43,400 be this ideological you know, weapon and like restoring you 674 00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:46,280 know a little bit of like we'll just enforce child 675 00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:49,280 support and we'll do medicaid fraud and we'll do you know, 676 00:34:49,400 --> 00:34:53,760 crime victims compensation and like leave the partisan litigation to 677 00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:55,320 you know, private litigants. 678 00:34:56,159 --> 00:34:57,199 Speaker 3: Yeah, well we'll see how that. 679 00:34:57,400 --> 00:35:01,280 Speaker 1: I don't know, but love here's I know. Promoters love 680 00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:03,559 for they love bureaucracy. 681 00:35:04,039 --> 00:35:07,239 Speaker 2: They love Yeah, particularly in Texas, they love We're not 682 00:35:07,280 --> 00:35:11,480 going to do Trump s bidding that works every time. Well, 683 00:35:11,519 --> 00:35:14,119 we will be watching all of that and all of 684 00:35:14,159 --> 00:35:17,960 this as well on what promises to be a very 685 00:35:18,079 --> 00:35:20,599 very exciting run up to March twenty twenty six, which 686 00:35:20,639 --> 00:35:24,400 is actually kind of a long time away. Patrick, thank 687 00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:26,400 you so much for joining us. We really really appreciate 688 00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:28,119 having you here, Missy. 689 00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:28,880 Speaker 3: Patrick, thanks for having me. 690 00:35:29,960 --> 00:35:33,159 Speaker 2: Yes, that's it for today. You can find all episodes 691 00:35:33,159 --> 00:35:35,519 of the trib Cast on YouTube or wherever you find 692 00:35:35,559 --> 00:35:38,519 your podcasts. Be sure to like, subscribe and share the 693 00:35:38,559 --> 00:35:40,880 podcast on all of your platforms. If you'd like to 694 00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:42,519 get in touch with the team, you can reach us 695 00:35:42,559 --> 00:35:46,880 at Tribcast at Texastribune dot org. Our producers are Rob 696 00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:49,840 Avila and Chris Bobada. Our theme music is composed by 697 00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:52,239 Rob and we will see you next week.