Speaker 1: Welcome to wager Talk today, the gold stand of the
sports betting shows where he talked the talk and walk
the Walk. It's five dollar Tuesday at wager Talk. We're
coming off a strong start to the week. We got
another loaded slate, we got a lot of games to
break down. Jesse's gonna give us his top college football
teams to fade, and we're gonna talk the Knicks and
the Celtics. Nice rivalry there in the NBA. Brian Power
is gonna join us. We're gonna talk Thunder Warriors big game,
and then Florida versus Duke college basketball. And then my
good friend the pres is gonna join us. We're gonna
break down Thursday Night Football, but he has a big
play in that one. So instead we're just gonna go
back and forth about a couple of other big games, Bears, Packers, Chiefs, Texans.
So leaving the chat, what your guys' thoughts are were?
This is a huge, huge weeks and weekend of NFL games,
So Telsea, you like Bears, Packers, Chiefs, Texans. Then he's
gonna talk Lightning and Islanders, and I'm gonna close out
with breakdown on the Timberwolves. Pelicans and Grizzly Spurs, really
good betable games, got some good information and some props
in those games. So we're gonna break all that down.
We got big names, we got big games. It's a big,
big Tuesday. Let's get started. Just let everybody know. My
flight got in way late last night. I landed in
Indianapolis in the middle of a snowstorm. So been a
little bit behind this morning. But let's bring in Jesse,
a man that has never a little bit behind. Jesse,
Happy Tuesday, How are you?
Speaker 2: I'm all right, Andy, got some much needed winning last night.
I certainly needed it after a pretty devastating holiday weekend.
Speaker 1: Well, let's talk a little bit of winners. We got
award a winner from our bet last week. You and
I went head to head on Ole miss and Mississippi State,
and I came out a winner. And I'm not sure
there were a whole lot of winners out of the
Lane Kiffin situation.
Speaker 2: But Mississippi might have won the game, they lost the war.
Speaker 1: Andy, that's true. So we do this when we go
head to head. Everyone puts their username in the comment
section along with which Hadi Kapper they wanted to go
along with so anybody that put Andy in there was
eligible for a winner, and the winner is our good
friend Natural eight. Congratulations Naturally eight. You get a free
three day pass. So all you have to do is
email support at wager talk dot com. Just tell them
that you were the big winner and you get a
free three day pass. You can use it on myself,
you can use it on Jesse. We got a lot
of big plays, so congratulations. You've been with us for
a long time, so congratulations, Naturally, you're the big winner.
All right, Jesse, let's talk about a couple teams here
to fade. You know, we're getting down to the end
of the season here, let's start with UNLV. We're looking
at fading them. Tell us why we're looking at them.
We're not why we're not supporting them this week.
Speaker 2: I love this game, Andy, I really do. I mean,
this is a rematch of last year's Mountain West Final,
and of course Boise State won that handily by a
score of twenty one to seven. In fact, Boise State
just owns UNLV. So you got to look at it, like,
why are they only a four point favorite? In fact,
I think they opened as a three point favorite. Well,
you look for reasons. Why is this line so short?
I guess Boise State eight wins, UNLV ten wins, So
that's one reason right there. But if you look at
strength of schedule going by Sagarin, it's not that that
different to Boise State has the eighty third rank schedule
and UNLV one hundred and ninth. But it feels like
a bigger deal to me. Boise State, of course played
Notre Dame and South Florida lost both those games. But
UNLV hasn't played anybody. In fact, they've only got one
win against a team with a winning record, and that
was Hawaii at home. So you want to hang your
hat on a win over Hawaii at home, I'm not
sure you belong in the conference championship game they did play.
These teams played in the regular season. Boise State won
by a score of fifty to thirty one. Now, Boise
State did lose their starting quarterback Maddox Madson a few
like over a month ago. Max Cutworth, the backup, has
come in. He threw for three hundred and forty one yards,
two touchdowns, no picks on twenty six of forty four
passing last week against Utah State. He's had four or
five games to get familiar with the offense and get
comfortable in this spot. And Maddox Madsen wasn't the star
of this team anyways. This team is built on the
running game, their offensive line, those guys are all still here.
It should be more of the same. In my opinion,
I think Boise State is far and away the better team,
and on a neutral field, I think they win this
by double digits. And getting them less than a touchdown
to me, is a steal. UNLV has the eleventh ranked
run defense in the Mountain West. They're giving up one
hundred and seventy five yards per game, and keep in
mind a really soft schedule. Their defense was just atrocious
all season long. And Boise State has its shortcomings, but
scoring points against soft defenses isn't one of them. Boise
State big for me.
Speaker 3: Andy.
Speaker 1: When we get kind of towards the end of the year,
are you looking more at teams that you want to
bet against or teams that you want to bet on,
or is it game by game situation? I mean, I
know you're trying to figure out the transfer portal and
the coaching situations on a lot of these games. So
is there a particular angle that you're really looking to
focus on. Because you talk all the time about teams defate,
it really seems like this is a play against UNLV
more than anything.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think, you know, we got off to a
good start by fading teams and it felt like I
found my niche Now I feel like we're we're just
gonna roll with that, and we have. And last week,
you know, it was really unfortunate. Ole Miss pulled away
late and really dominated that game despite the distraction. I
will say my analysis of what a distract that Lane
Kiffen's situation would be was not far off. That turned
into even a bigger shit show than I expected it
to be. They're even releasing releasing audio tapes of him
chatting up college girls, and I mean it, trust me,
it's gonna get a lot uglier for Lane Kiffen.
Speaker 1: You gotta admit, it's kind of a match made in heaven.
LSU and Lane Kiffen, Like it's kind of a it's
kind of a perfect little little matchup.
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm not I'm not a fan of either
of these teams, but I'd love to see it blow
up in LSU's face, just you know, for the sake
of it.
Speaker 1: I mean, you have two entities in Lane Kiffen and
LSU where it always blows up. What's what's the most
logical outcome a ten year symbiotic relationship. No chance?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's how I see it as well.
Speaker 1: Well, let's move to another team that you're looking to fade.
We're looking at by you interesting team to fade here.
Why are you off them this week?
Speaker 2: Well, this is less of a fade of BYU and
more of the fact that Texas Tech is just in
a league of their own in the Big Twelve and
really against most of college football. In fact, if you
look at who spent the money in NIL, Texas Tech
spent twenty five million, which is exactly how much they
promised Lane kiff and he gets dispend at LSU. But
apparently only two teams spend twenty five million or more,
and it was Texas and Texas Tech. So they've got
the best roster money can buy, and they're far and
away better than every other team in the Big Twelve.
They ranked first in scoring defense, They're only allowing eleven
points per game. They ranked first in total defense two
hundred and fifty eight yards per game and they're eleven
and one. Their only loss came on the road at
Arizona State, who won the conference championship last year, and
they had their backup quarterback in that game and it
was kind of a shocking result. Aside from that, they've
steamrolled the competition in the Big Twelve that includes BYU.
They won twenty nine to seven. That game was only
a few weeks ago. This a neutral site game, but
it's in Texas. I think BYU is in big trouble.
I think BYU is, you know, they're a solid team.
They're solid on both sides of the ball. I like
their coach, who may or may not be on the
way to Penn State. By the way, but BYU won
a few games that they had no business winning. I
don't think they're as good as Utah, and they managed
to beat Utah somehow, but I still think Utah is
a far and away a better team than BYU. And yeah,
the big news is now Penn State is offering Sataki,
probably big. I don't know. I haven't heard the numbers,
but I have to assume the Penn State has been
thoroughly embarrassed and they're ready to unload the kitchen sink
and do whatever it takes to get Sataki to leave BYU.
And I'm not going to go with the same angle
I went with with Lane Kiffen last week, because I'm
going to go out on a limandy and say, however
Kali's attack, he handles this, it's gonna be with a
lot more class than Lane kiffin.
Speaker 1: Low bar bar just that, but I mean a picture
like clothes. I'm sorry, I just kicking it off this
this laid Kivin thing Texas Tech. So we do have
a kind of a revenge factor here. They they dropped
BYU twenty nine to seven. It looks like is that
factor in at all? Or is this completely new game? Doesn't?
Speaker 2: Doesn't sounds like you're brewing up a bet there, and
he sounds like you're you're thinking about back in the Mormons.
Speaker 1: Care to make things interesting, I'll do it.
Speaker 4: I'll do it.
Speaker 1: Give me a little bit back, Yeah, let's run it back.
Let's do it. I'll take I'll take the revenge factor here.
So if you're on Texas Tech, I'll be on. I'll
be on BYU. So let's do it again. This is
our our weekly tradition here. So all right, comment section,
you know what to do after the show is over.
Put in the comments section whether you agree with Jesse
on Texas Tech or Andy on b YU. Make sure
you put your wager talk use your name. Whoever wins,
we'll pick aside and you're gonna win a free three
day pass. Natural eight was the big winner. And it
looks like there's gonna be a lot of Jesse's in
the comments section here.
Speaker 2: Jesse's, Well, the chat's also gonna have the benefit of
knowing whether It'sataki got the Penn State job or not,
so that line could move. A lot could change between
now and next week.
Speaker 1: That's all right. I got faith in my Mormons, I
got friends out, I got friends out there. Come on
bringing home BYU. So, all right, Jesse and I going
head to head again. You guys can benefit. Put in
the comment section. It's gotta be after the show is over.
We checked the comments, not the live check, not the
live chat, So comments section below, Yeah, Jeff, make sure
you put that in the comments right after the show
is over. That way we can we can keep track
of everything. All right, Jesse, Let's move on to the
NBA Knicks Celtics. Nice rivalry obviously, you know, don't have
Jason Tatum here, But Celtics team that not completely giving
up on the season. What are the surprises to me?
If Boston is playing with a much slower pace than
I thought they were going to. I figured they'd be
you know, running gun, shoot as many threes as possible.
Not so much. It's pretty short line here, Knicks minus
two over under two point thirty. How do you break
down the Knicks and the Celtics.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think this is the wrong team favorite situation, Andy.
The Knicks appear to be the better team. They're sitting
in first place in the Atlantic. Two and a half
cames up on Boston. They won four straight, but look
at their home away splits. They're three and five on
the road. They're ten and one at home. Let's look
at their road wins. How about at Charlotte, at Dallas,
at Brooklyn that those are the teams you've beat on
the road so far this season. Now you're gonna lay
points at Boston. Count me out and og and an
Obi is out, and I know all the talk will
be on Tatum being out and people probably overlook and
an Obi being out. You got to keep in mind,
when Annanobi first came over from Toronto, the Knicks went
on some kind of incredible winning streak, like eighteen of
nineteen games with Annobi in the lineup. Then he got
hurt and they started to suck again or not suck,
but you know they weren't quite as good. I mean,
he's an excellent defender, an excellent all round player, and
they certainly do miss him. Boston, they've won six of
their last eight, five of their last six at home.
They did win one seventeen to one point fifteen at
Cleveland in their last game. Peyton Pritchard forty two points
in that game. And you mentioned Jason Tatum. In my mind,
Jalen Brown is the MVP. You remember, he won the
finals MVP. And here's a little bit about how you
can trust AI Andy, because I wanted to look at
some quotes what Jason Tatum was saying after Jalen Brown
won MVP, because I remember he was quite salty about that.
I think we all remember Tatum being salty about Brown
winning MVP. But AI quote says Tatum was not angry
about Brown winning MVP. He was actually very happy and
congratulated him. So be careful what you get from the
AI search engines. Tatum is still salty. Brown is still
the more valuable player, more dependable. Tatum might be the
guy the flashy score more points, more athletic, more talented,
but Brown delivers on a nightly basis. The Celtics still
have some dudes. They're still the better team on their
home court in my opinion, wrong team favored go Boston.
Speaker 1: Looking up AI to see if Jason Tatum was indeed
mad at Brown. That's a new use for AI.
Speaker 2: I thought it was funny that AI conclusively he determined
that he wasn't salty at all.
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, so funny. Oh, really really good stuff. Jesse,
all right, it's five dollars Tuesday. Tell everyone, what do
you have up?
Speaker 2: I do have a college basketball total up for five
dollars Tuesday, coming off a three and oh sweep on Monday,
and as far as Thanksgiving weekend and all that, that's
in the past. We're not going to talk about that.
For those of you who saw my performance, you know
we're not talking about that. We're moving forward, Andy.
Speaker 1: Very Well said, Jesse very Well said, Hey, listen, we
all go on winning streaks. We're all going losing streaks
perfectly fine. It's five dollars Tuesday. Grab Jesse's best bet
and if you like Jesse's take on Texas Tech, put
that in the comment section Texas Tech covers and we
pick you. You win a free three day pass. Jesse
great segment is always great. Talking to you every Tuesday.
Best of luck, my friend.
Speaker 2: Thanks Andy, Jesse Shule.
Speaker 1: Everyone one always doing a great job to get us
kicked off on Tuesday. It is five dollars Tuesday. Every
handicapper can put up a five dollars play every Tuesday.
I do an NBA player prop. That best bet is up.
I've attached another one to it, so you get two
plays for that one and being up been great the
last few days. Props are just a big up and
down throughout the course of the season. But the last
few days haven't been my best work, so really looking
to turn that around. Just want to be honest with
you guys that NBA Player Props hasn't been my best
sport the last three days. But looking to get a
winner tonight. So if you want to join me, do that,
and I will also tell you this. We have a
cricket play that is in the middle of playing right now.
As soon as that game is over, a four percent
best bet is going to go up. It's half price.
As soon as it goes up, it will be half price.
Do what you want with it. It's very juicy. I will
just tell you. After the show's over, I will be
going around to the kiosks at various casinos around me,
and I will be playing it as much as I
can do with that, with with what you want. That
will be up later today. Let's bring on Brian Power. Brian.
Happy Tuesday. How are you sir?
Speaker 4: Good?
Speaker 3: Sorry to miss you last week, Andy, I was traveling,
but happy to be back here talking to Oklahoma City
Thunder as I think I do every Tuesday on this spot.
Speaker 1: We could give you worse teams. You have to break
down the Sacramento Kings or Charlotte.
Speaker 3: There's twenty nine worst teams in the NBA and the
Oklahoma City Thunder. I think we can all agree on that.
Not much we can agree on life, but I think
that is something we can agree on.
Speaker 1: Every time I log in and I think, I was like,
you know what, I should take the Oklahoma City Thunder
over their season win total. I'm just like, no, they're
gonna regress and then you know what, you know, it
doesn't happen. They regress. Ye, they're like they're like crazy regressed. Yeah,
it really is. So well, let's break this one down.
We're gonna start you off with the Thunder and the Warriors.
This is what's amazing about the Thunder. Bartenstein's out for
a couple of weeks, dort is going to be out,
Crusoe is going to be out, and they're minus eleven
and a half. There's just no other team where you
can just be missing these key players and they're just
gonna be these big favorites. They just next man up
over under his two to twenty four and a half.
How do you break down this game?
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's a key injury on the other side too,
obviously that we'll address here in just a minute. But
let's start by reminding everyone what they already know. Thunder
are by far the best team in this league. They're
won of four teams in league history to have opened
a season by winning twenty of their first twenty one games.
They've won twelve in a row now by an average
of fifteen and a half points per game. Their defensive
rating per Hollinger is by so far and away the
best in the league, and I feel comfortable saying right
now on December twod ok see pardon me, for the
second straight season is going to finish number one in
defensive rating by a wide margin. Now. As great as
Oklahoma City is, the points spread canon usually is the
great equalizer worth noting Thunder have failed to cover the
spread straight coming tonight. They've also failed to cover six
of their last eight over all. Here. As you mentioned,
they're being asked to lay double digits on the road
against a Golden State team that will not have Steph Curry.
These teams last met on November eleventh. That was a Tuesday.
And yes, I did go back in the archives because
I thought I broke that game down here on wager
Talk today, I did. I said to back, okay see
three weeks ago they were at home for that particular matchup.
Sure enough, they ended up winning one twenty six to
one O two and easily covered the eight and a
half point spread. Bigger number here, and they're on the road,
but I see OKAC covering again. Golden State has been
no great shakes themselves at the betting window as of
late one and five against the number their last six
and no Curry is obviously huge. No Al Horford either
for the words he missed the last meeting. I just
don't see how the Warriors score andy here. I remember
I talked about the thunders outstanding defensive rating earlier. They
did not have Jalen Williams for first nineteen games, including
the first meeting with the Warriors. And I'm gonna add
one more angle for you if you if you look
at the number and say I don't want to lay
that many points on the road, I don't care that
curries out. Well, consider betting Golden State under its team
total of one O five and a half. Guys I
already mentioned earlier with Curry. The Warriors were held at
one O two by okayc three weeks ago against New
Orleans on Saturday. The Runds is a very bad basketball team.
Golden State won that game. It was their first game
without Curry. The Warriors did win, but scored only one
O four. Honestly, as I kind of speak those words
into existence, that team total Unders probably best would have
played this.
Speaker 1: I have to agree with you on that one.
Speaker 4: Uh.
Speaker 1: There is some chat in the live chat about line
moves in the NBA, and guys, you gotta be careful
about these line moves. They're they're very easy to move
lines before you get to the finalized lineups later on
in the day. Like Teddy has talked about numerous times,
you'll drive yourself crazy trying to chase line movement NBA.
These lines just move up and down. It's really easy
to move it a couple point, So don't worry about
a line move early in the day.
Speaker 3: Rob Veno on Full Court Press this morning had a
really good point that he had been talking to someone
years ago that you know, if you're just if you
get so preoccupied with line movement, you're going to become
a fifty to fifty batter and lose on the big
so and I thought that was well stated by Rob.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, it doesn't take a lot to move lines
this early in the day. So yeah, it's just be
really careful if you're concentrating that much on it. So
all right, let's move to college basketball here Florida versus Duke.
I don't know much about these teams, but looks like
Duke is going to come in here at the favorite
eight and a half over under one fifty six and
a half. How do you break down Florida and Duke. Yeah.
Speaker 3: On a more positive note, I like Mark Martin's comments
and the chat. Thank you, Mark, that was very nice
of you to say, let's talk about Florida and Duke
here real quick plug I mentioned Full Court Press submitted ago.
Every Monday through Friday, we are live here on the
wage you Talk YouTube channel ten a m Eastern, myself
Adam trigger Rob Veno breaking down the entire college basketball
card for the day. We touch on all the big
games such as this one Duke in Florida, some out
of the radar matchups as well. Dare I say you
will not find another show on the entire Internet that
goes as deep into college hoops on a daily basis
than Full Court Press. And those of you who have
been watching Full Court Press regularly already know I have
not been that high on this Florida team this year.
Defending national champs are just one and six against the number.
They've suffered two straight up losses as well, season opener
versus Arizona, and then, more surprising, they lose as an
eleven and a half point favorite to TCU and an
MTE last week. Gators have since bounced back. They did
beat Providence to close out that MT in San Diego.
That's multi team event for those keeping square home. But
I still question this new backcourt mix for the Gators.
You got two transfers, Lee from Princeton, Flann from Arkansas,
and we talked about this on the first week of
Full Court Press. We thought those two would not mesh
all that well. Okay, Florida could rely on Walter Clayton
in their backcourt this year. This backcourt right now on
December two has not been that good. It's let the
team down. On The Florida front court is outstanding. Ken
Palm has done with the eighth highest offensive rebounding rate
in the country. It's a clear strength there. But where
the Gators do struggle guys is from behind the arc.
They're shooting is twenty seven point seven percent from three.
Is that number going to improve in their first true
road game at Cameron Indoor, of all places? Probably not so.
I think the key to this game is whether or
not Florida's size on the interior can contain contain Duke's
stand up freshman Cameron Boozer will foul trouble be an
issue for the Gators here. I think that's another question.
We've got to consinder spreads update and a half. My
view is what you're gonna see here we talk about
line movement. The line may continue to go up. I
think some sharper groups are gonna wait and see how
high this number gets and take the points. I'm going
to advise you to not do that. My power ratings
say the current spread is a few points short of
where the numbers should be, So I would bet do
Duke sooner rather than later. Duke is just a much
better basketball team than Florida right here in early December
college basketball.
Speaker 1: I know it's early this season. Any teams that are surprising,
teams that are look way above everybody else, teams that
are disappointing. What are you seeing so far earlier in
the season, if anything.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I'm kind of you know, early on,
there were some teams that, you know, we're just fine.
I think things have kind of even Outlook my top
sixteen the order changes a little bit, but my top
sixteen in the power rings are the same top sixteen
in the Ken Palm ratings. You know, teams that have
fallen way short of the mark. We actually talked about
Bilo Sell High spots today and Full Court Press. You've
got a loyal the Chicago team that's oh and eight
against the number no team. I've not downgraded any team
in the country more than the Ramblers. Rip Sister Gene.
I think I don't know they just I guess they're
still in morning in loyal of Chicago. It's not gone well.
Oregon has been a disaster at Owen seven again to
spread the one team that continues to impress from a
points spread perspective. As you see San Diego, they're an
actually and there's they're undefeated six and all against the
spread and a dog tonight at Nevada. That's an interesting spot.
So if you guys want to check out what we
did a whole segment actually on Bilo sell High on
Full Court Press today. People can check that on the
archives if you missed it live.
Speaker 1: That's like the most valuable information you're gonna get. Like
free picks and breakdowns is great, but when you can
give people their own information about Hey, these are the
teams that are underachieving, look for regression. These are the
teams that are overachieving. Look for aggression. That's the most
valuable things that we can do on these videos. So
make sure you guys are checking out Full Court Press
that what you get all that information. It helps it
helps out with with your own bets as well. So
when is that show again, Brian and A.
Speaker 3: And Eastern Monday through Friday. So yeah, every every ten
day on Eastern Monday. I will be off on Thursday
because I am doing the Blitz on Thursday, and I
pleaded with Tray. I said, treg two hours of live
stuff is it's kind of taken a little bit on
me during this time during the holidays, So I apologize.
I will be af Full Court Press on Thursdays week.
But we've got the Blitz Ross Benjamin, Ralph Michaels, and
myself that is live immediately following you Andy on Thursday,
we're gonna be breaking out Conference championship Saturday. What a
odd conference championship Saturday as some of these some of
these conferences need to redo how they do tie breakers.
Speaker 1: In my opinion, well, it's going to be a party
here where I live. Man. I you versus Ohio.
Speaker 3: State, I know, number one, I know, the only thing
that sucks is it's like I feel for a number
one versus number two game, the stakes are kind of
low because unless if it's a blowout, both of them
are getting buys into the playoff.
Speaker 1: But yeah, let me ask you about this because so,
first off, one of my best friends, he's diehard Ohio State.
So I and I have been friends for like decades
since since we got out of college. We've never had
a football rivalry. I went to IU, he went to
Ohio State. Now all of a sudden, it's serious. And
now he's al sudden, really stand offish and doesn't want
at all buddy buddy about football. Yeah, oh yeah, he
is very defensive about football now. But we were trying
to figure out is this gonna be a great game
or is this gonna be You got two teams that
are going to the playoffs? Do they want to show anything?
Do they just run very vanilla schemes? And this turns
out to be not that great of a game. What
do you do if you're if you're these two I'm fascinating.
Speaker 3: I'm trying to figure that out myself. Yeah, I'm trying
to figure out myself. I'll be honest, I actually show
a little bit of value. I did at the opening
number on the dog there on Indiana, we've seen some
money come in on the Hoosiers as well. Look, Ohio State,
we all understand this, and I don't think anyone can
fault Ryan Day. He understands college football. It's not a
twelve game season anymore. It's a sixteen game season. They
won the national championship last year, so they played the
full sixteen games. There's been load management and I don't
and for the it's funny, everyone's like, oh Ohio State
hasn't really shown me much at They cover the spread
in every game except the one against Perdue where they
are favored by you know, ten billion points, so the
number was a little lower than ten billion, but you
get you get the drift. There was a large number
against Purdue, so you know, Ohios, you really can't complain
what they do. And then Indiana Andy yrsaid I can't
fall you know. At the same time, Signetty should be
loud the other new kid on the block. It's funny
you talk about how this has not been a rivalry
Ohio State in Indiana. I can't remember how long. I don't know.
You guys don't want to wait for me. To leave
through the Phil Steel book. I'm sure it has the answer.
But the last ten times these teams have met Ohio
State and Indiana, Ohio State's been a double digit favorite every time,
including last year. That was Indiana's kind of first big
test on the national scene, right, they started out strong,
they failed. We'll see. This is a better Indiana team
this year with Mendoza, so we shall see about what happens.
I have not made up my mind yet how I'm
betting that game. I'm assuming I am going to have
a play on it though.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they playing the opposing team of Ohio State, just
playing their team total under it's just been it's just
been printing tickets. This is just one of the best defenses.
Speaker 3: They play slow. That's the other thing with the loadmatgement
in terms of in terms of you know, how long
they're taking to snap the ball. No team in the
country was playing slower in terms of pace than the Buckeyes.
Speaker 1: I wonder if that's a big thing that happens this weekend,
like let's not let's not kill our guys, let's not
run them into the ground, Let's let's take some time
off the clock. So it should be a great game, Brian.
What do you have up for five dollars Tuesday?
Speaker 3: Yeah, five dollars. I will be joining the five dollars
parade as soon as I am done here, So in
just a matter of minutes, I'll be putting up a
basketball play for five dollars. I do already have up
a five percent play on my page wt dot Buzz
slash VP that is for the Thursday night game in
the NFL. We're coming off a nice five percent winner
on Sunday Andy the NFL Rams Panthers over. I think
that was one of my probably better bets of the
whole season. Uh. I'm notoriously pessimistic watching games, but even
I was struggling to find reasons to be pat then there.
We just needed one touchdown in the second half, and
I said, guys, I think we're going to do that.
Said we did cash early in the second half. Very
happy about that. At the Commanders on Sunday night as well,
that was a sweet guy. It was convulsed, convulsing in bed,
try to not wake up my wife as I'm like
I would have. I wanted to bet my life savings
that Denver was going to score a touchdown on that
first possession in overtime. I've never been so sure of
anything in my life then, and I'm like, God, please
just go just come down, score, go for to and
miss it and then let's let's go home.
Speaker 4: So did lose.
Speaker 3: Let's mention this. I know someone in the show's, oh, well,
why don't you mention I did have the Giants last night.
That what an abysmal start to the game.
Speaker 1: That was for the g men.
Speaker 3: But did get a little bit back andy in the NBA,
where we're on a fourteen and two run, going back
to last year, last year's epic playoff run Utah Jazz
first half plus the points did not need the points
in what was an outright upset of the Houston Rockets.
So I think that covers a lot. We're seven to
and one in the NFL. Oh, by the way, sides
and totals last three weeks.
Speaker 1: Nice. Nice. The first possession of overtime is so unfair
to the defense. It's so unfair. They're tired and now
all of a sudd they're gonna go right back out
on the field to play.
Speaker 4: Well.
Speaker 3: Well, there was an argument the announcement Collinsworth and right,
that's the game that. Yeah, Collinsworth and Tarrico, Uh, we're
bringing up point that if you were Washington, that Denver
defense was so gassed after that last drive to tie
the game, there was probably an art while strategically there's
the argument, all wait to see what you have to do.
Your offense needs to do that that's a strategic advantage.
But they were making the case and I didn't disagree
that Denver's defense was so gassed Washington probably should have
taken the ball first.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, I agree agree, just just try to ride that
tired defense out. So all right, Brian, great stuff. Five
dollars plays going up in just a bit, Thank you
very much. Great segments, and Brian breaks down all of
these college basketball games on Full Court Press and the
Blitz on Thursday. Brian, thank you very much. Good luck
on five dollars Tuesday. We'll see you next week.
Speaker 4: See and.
Speaker 1: All right, guys, we are going to do all around
the world and the double NBA games breakdown. After we
talked to Lawrence, but we got to bring in pres,
we got to talk some NFL, we got to talk
some NHL. Happy Tuesday, How are you.
Speaker 4: I'm awesome, many thanks for having me. Man listening to
the show. Brian so good, really, you know, over and
under on how many plaid shirts? Brian actually odes, Oh
what a great twelve and a half.
Speaker 1: Oh, you were going way high. I was gonna say,
like six and a half.
Speaker 4: I'll take the over, take the over, six and a half,
I'll take.
Speaker 1: The I gotta tell you, Lawrence, your beard looking great? Yeah,
so really good.
Speaker 4: So I was noticing my beard. And Jeff Ulbridge is
that his name? Defensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons, an
ex in turn head coach for the New York Jeff's
from last year? Remember him? Okay, that's I feel like
I look like him. And he's pretty ugly, so that
kind of sucks. But I think I look like him. Dude.
Speaker 1: I've been told if I put on a headset and
a hat an Ohio State shirt, I basically look like
Ryan Day.
Speaker 4: I basically couldn't you know who you look like?
Speaker 1: Coach?
Speaker 4: And I'm not allowed to tell anyone. I've been banned
from telling people who you look like.
Speaker 1: It's getting I get more the older I get, the
more and more people apparently I look like it's Jeff Saturday, It's.
Speaker 4: Ryan Day, it's Jeff Saturday.
Speaker 1: It's Jeff Saturday.
Speaker 4: Yeah, we know what. Everybody knows it. Yeah, everybody knows it.
So you want to talk you want to talk some
bear packers with me?
Speaker 1: Hey, well yeah here, Well little promo. We were going
to talk about the Thursday night game, but you have
a big best bet up in that game.
Speaker 4: So yeah, so I have. Yeah, you see Panda twice
in about an hour. We can make it a triple
if you want to watch the best betting show ever.
It'll be up very very soon, and we do have
we're working on a live one day every blue Moon
live version of that. We'll talk about it later. But yeah,
I got I got my first ever five percent NFL
parlay ever. I have never released a five percent parlay
bet in my entire life. Uh, this is my favorite
parlay ever and it's plus money. The first leg is
on Thursday. This is a plus money parlay. You guys
can get it for a half price. Andy, what do
you think the promo code is for my hal price?
Speaker 1: I hope it's h af fIF or something I should
have done.
Speaker 4: It's half price, ah, j ol Alf Remember there is
in al hal price is the promo code. So head
over and grab that. It's my first ever five percent
NFL parlay. I have over sixty fur percent in parlay
bets since January of twenty twenty four. I am eleven
and seven in NFL is here and it is a
plus money parlay. Thank you for asking.
Speaker 1: Bro. All Right, well, let's since we're not going to
talk about that game. We don't want you to uh
to spoil your your best bet. But it's a great
weekend of games. I mean, this is make or break weekend. Here.
Let's talk Bears, Packers, Chiefs, Texans. Let's start with Bears
Packers here. Listen, you can only play who they put
in front of you. And Chicago has done their job,
which is beat the teams that everyone in the front.
I think this has been a really spectacular coaching season
where you're kind of rebuilding, but you're getting the most
out of it. And I got to tell you, don't
look now. This Chicago Bears running offense is terrifying going
into the playoffs. They have two legit running backs, their
offensive line has improved a lot. Caleb Williams isn't making
the big mistakes. This is the team that has kind
of the recipe for playoff success. I've enjoyed watching them
get better. You got green Bay still is a minus
six and a half point favorite to me, Give me
those Bears points all day long. What do you think
about this one? Yeah?
Speaker 4: And I agree with you, Andy, So let's start there. Firstly,
seventy nine percent of the tickets written right now are
on the Chicago Bears, and sixty nine percent of the
money is on the Chicago Bears. Yet the line hasn't changed,
so we do need to be careful because obviously there's
some substantial and I don't want to say money, but
just some well respected individual rules that are bet in
green Bay right now. I'm with you, Andy, I think
the play is the Bears. And this is a very
interesting spot for the green Bay Packers because one would say, well,
is this a bad spot for them? They just played
Detroit on Thanksgiving in what was an absolute must win
game of green Bay and now they're in a must
win game the next week against the Chicago Bears. I
think it's a better spot for Chicago than it is
for green Bay. And what I gotta look at this
look how I look at this game is can the
Bears win this game?
Speaker 1: Well?
Speaker 4: Why the hell not. They went into Philadelphia and beat
Philadelphia handly, Andy, I mean handily. They ended up winning
twenty four fifteen. And it's not like green Bay has
been lights out this year. Yeah, three game win streak.
Two of those games were against Minnesota and the New
York Giants, and the last game against Detroit basically came
down to who converted fourth downs. Green Bay converted to
Detroit missed two. That was the difference of the game.
This green Bay Packers team has lost at home to Carolina,
has lost on the road to Cleveland. Now, I do
think they're a better team than Chicago, and I think
that there is a fair chance they win both of
these games against Chicago. With that said, it's just too
many points. I mean, this game has field goal written
all over it. I would not be blown away if
Chicago won. And the other thing, Andy, is what you said.
The run game coming out of Chicago right now has
changed everything. And not only that, but it's helped the
passing game. It's created space. It also slows the game down.
It keeps their defense off the field and nice and fresh.
It keeps their opponents offense from getting into sync. I
agree with you, Andy, I will take the nine and
three Chicago Bears plus the six and a half, and
I think this game is a field goal game. Also,
I want to shout out Whitney Murray. Whitney, lots of
love to you. I don't know who you are, but
I love you and I appreciate you. Shout out to
Whitney Murray. Everybody.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean this is a Bears team number two
on the season now, one hundred and fifty three point
eight yards rushing per game, last three games, one hundred
and seventy three. They're just getting better.
Speaker 4: They're just getting Yeah, and Andy, you mentioned the coaching.
Ben Johnson is outstanding. I was talking to a hardcore
Detroit Lions fan on Saturday night and I asked them,
did you keep the wrong coach? And that is how
good Ben Johnson it is. I think they might have
mocked up in Detroit.
Speaker 1: Brother, they they could have those those coordinators were going
to go somewhere, but there wasn't a whole lot you
could do.
Speaker 4: But yeah, no, you could just get rid of Dan
Campbell and fat Up. I mean impossible to do there.
Speaker 1: Impossible, Yeah, yeah, impossible.
Speaker 4: Colin Gregory writes, Bears playing with house money at this point, Andy,
let's let can we can we hijack the show and
talk about house money or quick second, there's no such thing.
What the hell is house money? So Andy, if if
I win one hundred dollars spatting sports, is that one
hundred dollars house money or is it my money? That I.
Speaker 1: Know where you're going with this, I it's I'm on
the fence about this whether it's house But when does
it not? When does it start becoming your money and not.
Speaker 4: The second they give it to you. This is the
most black and white thing in the whole world. The
minute you're handed money, it's yours and no longer theirs.
And it is honestly one of the biggest problems in
the world of sports betting. How many guys go to
a blackjack table, turn one hundred into three hundred and
don't walk away. How many people make bets on Sunday
at one pm, have a great first round of games,
are now playing with house money, so they make extra
bets at w and lose all their money. If I'm
with you, Andy, I pay you. I pay you as
I pay you. I'm one of the owners of wager Talk.
You're a worker I pay you, after I pay you,
is it my money?
Speaker 1: I gue what you're saying.
Speaker 3: I do.
Speaker 1: I give what you're saying.
Speaker 4: This is the most black and white thing in the
whole world. Do not ever assume that money that's yours
is someone else's.
Speaker 1: It's a great it's a great quote. I like that.
Don't ever pretend that your money is somebody else's. All right,
let's talk about Chiefs and Texans. Here's a Chiefs team
that's not playing with house money. They may not be
playing with very much money at this point if they
lose this game six and six. Yet you know the
line is still operating like this is the Kansas City
Chiefs team of old. They're minus three and a half
over under a forty two. I mean, this Chief schedule
is it's so hard. It's just week after week, primetime game,
brutal matchup, and yet there's still favorites here even though
there are five hundred. Do you think the Texans can
put the nail on the coffin here on the Chief season?
Speaker 4: Eddie Kowea, I'm gonna talk about this game and the
Indianapolis Colts Jacksonville game all at the same time.
Speaker 1: Okay, So.
Speaker 4: Jacksonville has won three in a row four or five.
Indianapolis has lost a bunch in a row, three of
four as well. Houston has won four straight games. Kansas
City has lost three of their last four. Both Houston
and Jacksonville have basically been given to this by the
bookmakers in general public. Yes, Andy, you saw that right
to this, to this, I mean, how insulting is it
to both of those teams that they are coming into
these games as dogs? So what that said? Bet both
Houston and Jacksonville this coming Sunday. These are two extremely
disrespected teams right now. And in regards to this KC team,
you can't lose to Dallas in a situation like that.
This Dallas team is nowhere near as good as everybody
thinks it is, and this team can't it out of
its own way. They lost to Denver, they lost to Buffalo.
I think Houston is coming and feeling good about themselves
and Andy, like we saw with the New England Patriots dynasty,
I think that teams want desperately to beat Kansas City.
So when they are wounded and they are down, I
think the teams playing against them are going to play
the best games they can play. Kansas City's gonna be
good for many years to come, just like what we
saw with the New England Patriots. I think this is
a field goal game. Brother. I don't think I'm gonna
get to the window on this game, but I really
I gotta look to take the points here, and if
you can get a hook Houston plus three and a half,
this is sure a bet for me. I also like
the under in this game, Andy, and I know it's
low at forty one and a half, but man, this
Houston defense is just exceptional. They held Indianapolis to sixteen,
Buffalo to nineteen, Tennessee to thirteen, Denver to eighteen, San
frant to fifteen, Baltimore to ten, Tennessee to zero. I mean,
look at these numbers, Andy, in their last nine games zero, ten, fifteen, eighteen, thirteen,
nineteen sixteen. Two games went over twenty in their last seven.
So let's take the dog and the under. What do
you think about Indianapolis, Andy, I'm sorry to hijacked your
show given that you're live in Indianapolis. How are the
Colts favorite favored here?
Speaker 1: Well, they shouldn't be. The fact is our quarterback is
a broken leg.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, not only that they're still look Colts.
It's not like they've changed their entire team from last year.
Speaker 1: Well here's here's the thing. They started off strong, they
were healthy, and on Thursday it turns out Daniel Jones
is playing on a broken fibula, and then Saust Gardner
gets hurt on the first play of the game. So
you can make all the x's and o's arguments you want,
but it's a league that comes down to health. And
when your quarterback is cannot move laterally and he's a
mobile quarterback, it's a problem. And then when you have
your best cover guy get hurt and now that's a cat.
Thank god it wasn't an achilles injury. I thought it
was Achilles right off the bat. It's a calf strain.
But we know what those lead to. It's there. They're so.
Speaker 4: So garden out for this game is a big deal.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, it's it's It's just it's bad timing for
the Colts. The injury bug is going to get him
and these are two injuries that just aren't going to
heal in time for a playoff. Runt I fear so.
I mean, you can't just rest a broken leg for
one week and be fine. And Pardner's got this CAF
injury that's a month at least, So and you got
to and then you got to decide do we really
want to put him out there and risk what happened
to Tyrese Haliburton.
Speaker 4: So we talked a lot of NFL today, brother, of course.
Speaker 1: Well let's talk a little NHL. You got Lightning versus Islanders.
What do we know about these two teams? And where
are you going with this game?
Speaker 4: Yeah? Well so, so I actually spoke about this game
on the best betting show ever. I don't love the
spot with Tampa Bay hare Andy. I mean, look, I
think this is one of the best teams in hockey,
and I've been saying that all year. This team has
won six straight games, But they just beat the New
York Rangers for to one, and they are holding teams down.
The bottom line here is this is their third game
on a road trip, which is not the best game
or teams to win normally, and they're playing a New
York Islanders team that has lost three straight. And I
think this New York Islanders team is better than what
we anticipated coming into the season. I think that at
plus one twenty one, twenty five, one thirty. The value
is on the New York Islanders here, Andy, and I
do like the unders. So both the Islanders and the
under me in this game.
Speaker 1: All right. I've been liking Brandon Hagel over shots on
goal props. It's been priced well.
Speaker 4: Keith, So Andy on that shots be careful, okay, because
if you take a look, the New York Islanders allowed
Washington eighteen shots on goal, Philadelphia twenty one, Boston put
up fourteen shots on goal Seattle nineteen, Saint Louis twenty two.
This is one of the lowest shots on goal teams
in the league, the New York Islanders, So be careful here.
And it's a bad spot for the Tampa Bay Lightning.
I'm not loving your Hagel shots.
Speaker 1: I was just saying it's been good up until this point.
It's six in a row, which means it's due for
an under. The under might be the way to play it,
and then get back to it once it goes under. Lawrence,
it's five dollars Tuesday. What do you have about for everyone?
Speaker 4: I got one NHL play up five dollars. You guys
can head over and get that that's a three p
three percent play. I'm on a fifteen and six run
of those. I'm a sixty three percent on the season
in my three percent NHL plays, and literally since the
third week of the NHL season, I have been rolling.
I also have an NBA and college basketball play up
for my clients. Don't tell anyone, Andy, but I illegally
combined them in a package for five bucks. I know
I'm not supposed to do that, so I wrote it
as buy an NBA play and get a bonus college
basketball play. Don't tell anyone, So five dollars you can
get both my basketball plays, and dude, I am destroying
the books in both college and NBA. My NBA is
up profit. My College Hoops thirteen and I've run, and
I'm up profit in college basketball twenty one and eleven
hoops run. So yeah, crushing it in hoops. Speaking of
crushing it, Jay Crush Rights pres no best betting show
ever today. Of course, there's a best betting show ever today.
It will be up live in about ten minutes. Not live,
It'll be on our YouTube channel, WAGINGTV in about ten minutes.
And although I do not have official word yet, I
am hoping to have our first ever live show, the
best betting show ever live at one pm following you Andy, Friday,
December nineteenth. But I do not have full confirmation of
that yet.
Speaker 1: I love it, I love it excited. Let's try and
make that happen. Anything I can do to help, let
me know, Lawrence Presman five dollars Tuesday, grab his play.
Speaker 4: Thank you Lawrence, Thanks brother big On. Everyone take care
of yourselves all right, He's.
Speaker 1: One of the best. If we get some more likes here,
give us an algorithm boost here, we're gonna go into
some free plays well all around the world, and then
I'm gonna break down a couple of NBA games before
we get out here. But again, it's five dollars Tuesday.
I have my NBA best prop of the day sneakily
attached another one to there, so you get two plays
for five bucks up there. And again we have a
cricket play that's live. Right now, We're looking pretty good here.
We're minus eight thousand to win it live. When that
play is over, there will be a four percent best
bet that is up. It's very juicy. You gotta have
pretty big juice tolerance to play it. I will be
going to a lot of kiosks today playing that play,
So it take that for what it's worth. All right,
let's do all around the world here. We've got a
big NBA slate of free plays here. So we're going
to start with the Celtics Nicks, and we're gonna go
Derek White under eighteen and a half points. He's just
not been scoring a lot this season under and four
out of the last five games sixty eight percent under
this season, and he's dealing with a calf injury he
sat out last game. I don't like these calf injuries.
They're terrifying. And the Knicks are fifteen points allowed this season.
So Derek White under eighteen and a half points, all right.
This play comes from Jeff Michaels off of the wager
Talk Free picks page. This is an insane stat. We're
fading the seventy six ers. The seventy six ers are
one in sixteen ATS is a home favorite. Their largest
margin of victory is ten points. In these games. The
Wizards have covered three straight games as underdogs of nine
or more points. So Wizards plus thirteen and a half
Is this terrifying? Yes, but that trend is absolutely insane.
Seventy six ers one in sixteen ats is a home favorite. Again,
that comes from Jeff Michaels off of the free picks
page over at wager Talk. Then the gold sheet has
a player prop on the Raptors Blazers. Emmanuel Quickly over
seventeen and a half points. Portland allows most points to
appoint posing point guards Quickly average seventeen points in November
and at last two games with lar J Barrett out
of the lineup, he scored twenty two and nineteen points.
So we're gonna look at Emmanuel Quickly over seventeen and
a half points tonight. All right, we're gonna break down
a couple of NBA games for tonight. We're gonna start
with the Timberwolves and Pelicans, and then we're gonna break
down the Grizzlies and the Spurs. We'll start with Timberwolves
and Pelicans. Here, Timberwolves nine and a half point favorites.
At the time of recording. This two thirty two and
a half is the total Timberwolves. They're only twelve and
eight this season, and they've lost three straight road games
the last ten games. They're sixteenth in offensive efficiency, but
third in defense, fifteenth in pace. My worry with Minnesota
a little bit long term is are they just too
Anthony Edwards dependent and reliant? He scored thirty one plus
in five straight games, and I know that's that's a
great thing, but too much weird tear? Is the ball
moving a lot? Do they need to get more guys involved?
It's my worry with the Timberwolves here. Meanwhile, the Pelicans,
Oh the Pelicans. They're three and eighteen this season. They
lost twelve out of thirteen games. The last ten games
are twenty sixth in offense and twenty fourth in defense.
Zion I sadly I sadly am looking to be right
about this. I thought his NBA career was gonna be
a real struggle, and it's just not gone well this year.
Career low in points, career low, and rebounds career low,
and field goal percentage. They do not have their first
round pick next year. The good news long term is
it looks like they hit with Jeremiah Fears and Queen.
But that's for long term. So what do we expect
in tonight's game with this big total minus nine and
a half, minus ten and a half and the Pelicans
at home here with a total two thirty two and
a half. I'm actually gonna do a same game parlay
here for everybody plus money plus one thirty six. We're
gonna take the Timberwolves money line. I don't trust them
to win at margin, but I do think they're just
a much better team than this Pelicans team who's only
won three. So I'm gonna start with the Timberwolves money line.
I'm gonna take Anthony Edwards three plus made threes the
last five games. He's attempting ten threes per game, he's
shooting fifty percent, and the Pelicans give up the thirtieth
most threes this season. And then I'm gonna zigzag here
a little bit. I'm gonna take the Pelicans over one
oh eight and a half on their adjusted team total altline.
The last three road games the Wolves have given up
one hundred and thirteen, one hundred and seventeen, and one
hundred and fourteen, and home games that Zion has played
this season, the Pelicans have scored one hundred and twenty
eight in overtime, one forty three, one eighteen and one
twenty in overtime. So Timberwolves money line Anthony Edwards three
plus made threes, and the Pelicans over their alt team
total of one oh eight and a half. We move
on to the Spurs and the Grizzlies sneaky game. Here
we got the Spurs minus five, minus five and a
half with the over under at two thirty one and
a half. This game breakdown is pretty quick here. Grizzlies
are five and two the last seven games when John
Morant went out. We talked about this addition by subtraction. However,
it's not against great competition, but they are winning games
in those seven games, tenth in offense, sixth in defense.
The Spurs, they're five and two the last seven games
with Wemby out of the lineup. The Spurs are sixth
in offense. Now they're only twentieth in defense. But they
had to play the Wolves, Nuggets, Blazers, and Hawks. Those
are some high scoring teams. I'll tell you why I
like the under, I like the defense. These two teams
are playing the last five road games. The Grizzlies are
four and one to the under, and these teams played
without Wemby and John Morant in the lineups. On November eighteenth,
final score was one to eleven one oh one. I
watched that game and it was a very very slow
paced game on one side of the court, so when
they get into the half court, they run a lot
of clock on these possessions. So give me the under
on this one. If we're looking for a player prop,
take a look at Luke Cornett under seventeen and a
half points, rebounds and assists. He's not involved with Wemby
out of the lineup. He's gone under in five out
of the last six games. He only had seven p
against Memphis. I watched that game. He basically face guarded
Edie the entire game, and when Edie went out of
the lineup, so did Cornet. When Edie came in, Cornett
came in with him. That was his job to defend Edie.
He wasn't getting a whole lot of stats. So take
a look at Luke Cornette under seventeen and a half points,
rebounds and assists, and it is five dollars Tuesday up
at wager Talk. I have a five dollars NBA best
bet that is up attached another free play with that,
So if you want two NBA props for the price win,
go grab that. You can get there with the shortcut
WT Dot buzz slash al let's cash them five dollars Tuesday,
and remember you can get as many five dollars plays
as you feel comfortable with. We want you to bet responsibly.
Try out some new handicappers, try out your favorite handicapper.
For myself and for clients, we're in play for five
dollars on our NBA best prop on the board. All right, great, great,
great show. R J says they're using him different. New
location resign saves his career, They're gonna have to use
them different. Yeah, it's too much wear and tear on
his body. He's carrying too much. I like Zion, I
hate what's happened to him in his career. I hope
he's revitalized, but it's gonna take a big, big change.
I'm rooting for him, but he just went to a
bad organization who doesn't know how to develop him. And
so many times in these major sports, where you go
is almost as important as the talent. So hopefully they
develop him and he flourishes the older he gets. But
it's definitely an an 'll pill battle. So all right, guys,
thank you so much for joining us. It's good to
be back in the studio. Good to be back with
you guys, and thank you so much. Congratungratulations Natural eight
for the free three day pass, and again, put in
the comments section right after the show whether you agree
with Jesse's take on Texas Tech will they cover? Or
whether you agree with me that by you will cover?
Put your wage or talk to user name in the
comments section with Andy or Jesse which side you agree on.
Whoever wins, we'll go and pick one of the winners
and you'll win a free three day pass. Really like
these bets that we're doing, and thank you so much, guys.
Let's have a big five dollars Tuesday. We'll be back
tomorrow's same time, same place, with another big show. Good
luck on your bets tonight. Take care