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Speaker 1: Shoot one your live.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the best sports betting show on the planet.

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This is wager Talk Today. I am your host, Andy Lang.

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Speaker 3: It is five dollars Tuesday.

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Speaker 2: We're talking NFL futures, We're talking Danaway Contender Series, We're

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talking the latest Steamer point uh Steam Report, NFL preseason,

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MLB matchups. We have plenty to cover, so let's get

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it right into it.

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Speaker 3: You guys know what to do.

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Speaker 2: Hit that like button and let's get started with Gianni

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and we'll talk about how busy you're not busy the

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morning is with the the hands are rubbing, the hands

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are rubbing.

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Speaker 3: Is that is that a side of busy?

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Speaker 4: Busy brother? Busy day?

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Speaker 2: All right, let's uh, let's start with your your choice

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of sport NFL, preseason, MLB, w NBA.

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Speaker 3: What do you see an action on it?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, well, we'll talk real quickly on the preseason.

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Speaker 5: Just because these lines have already moved so significantly that

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it makes it easy for betters.

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Speaker 4: I mean again, I talked about it last week.

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Speaker 5: Once the line moves three four, five, six points, the

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only question is do you now take the other side

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because you can no longer take that that that side,

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that moved, even if it wins is you're just not

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placing a great bet. It's like buying bitcoin now at

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one hundred and twenty one thousand. Sure it could get

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to one hundred and fifty, it could get the two

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hundred and a while, but arguably you're buying at the top,

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you know, and if if things go bad, you're in

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a tough spot if it drops twenty percent, thirty percent.

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But if you're buying at a good price, you don't

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have those issues. But here's some of the bigger moves

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that are for sure legit, Like New England New England

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got They took the one and a half on New

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England and then laid up the one and a half

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on New England. So New England over Minnesota is legit.

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Same thing with Philadelphia, Philadelphia over Cleveland minus one and

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a half and minus two.

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Speaker 4: What else?

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Speaker 5: The Giants, the Giants over the Jets. The Giants got

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bet as an underdounk. Then they laid the one and

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a half in two on the Giants, which is why

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we're looking at three. Chargers didn't take a lot of

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money because they opened it two and a half, so

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it got hit till it got the three. Since then,

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it's been the public that's driving that line through that

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key number. And last but not least, Yeah, Denver opened

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above the key of three and that's just been bet

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up to minus six. So it's all favorites. It's all

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those short numbers. Now the totals, as you can see,

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they've come out a little bit higher this week's we're

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seeing a lot of thirty eight and a half. We're

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seeing a lot of thirty nine and a half. So

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you're not seeing that that big.

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Speaker 4: Move towards the over. I mean, that's pretty much where

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they're all going.

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Speaker 5: Maybe a point point and a half, two points, but

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you're not seeing those three, four or five point line movements.

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It'll be interesting when game day gets here if they'll

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continue to move up like perfect examples Philadelphia, Cleveland open

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thirty six and a half, thirty seven more or less.

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Now you're sitting at forty. The question is do you

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start to see any kind of resistance, Like if it

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gets to forty and a half, do you start seeing

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some buyback Because again, after all that scoring in preseason,

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rest assured the premium is going to be attached on

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these totals, and if they continue skyrocketing upwards. The only

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bet you could possibly make is be selective and try

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to find some unders that offer.

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Speaker 4: You some value.

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Speaker 5: Because of the correction, the over correction and the narrative

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points points points, points points, you got to go counter

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counter narrative if you're trading markets.

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Speaker 2: A couple of teams I have my eyes on in

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the team totals market Indianapolis. There they're going to be

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playing their their quarterbacks. I mean, Richardson's already banged up,

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but you know, Daniel Jones is trying to fight the

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show that he can do what he does.

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Speaker 3: And Green Bay look like they could could have cared less.

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I like that one.

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Speaker 2: In Miami, they've got quality backups and Detroit has not

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looked good in the preseason. And I think the Cats

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out of the bag on my unchargers like they're kind

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of public now because they like played so well in

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the first couple of games. But if Trey Lance is

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going to keep getting all those reps, I will be

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looking at their team total over for sure. Those are

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teams I think I know what to expect come from preseason,

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and that's a lot of it. Isn't that isn't it?

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What are we going to what are we getting, what

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to expect what quarterbacks.

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Speaker 5: What you have to understand is when all the talk,

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we've only seen one week of games, so it's kind

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of like wing week week one of the regular season.

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Everybody's overreacting the sixty minutes of football and they're already

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drawing conclusions off of sixty minutes of football.

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Speaker 4: For the entire season.

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Speaker 5: And that's why I think we too offers you a

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ton of value in the regular season and ultimately in

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preseason because you only have one game to go by,

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So the recency bias is going to be greater than

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ever before, and we're seeing that with these totals. They're

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already jacked up higher than they should be. So the books,

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to protect themselves, are going to add a point, let's say,

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to the total should be thirty seven. They're gonna bring

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it out of thirty eight thirty eight and a half.

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Sharp still think there's some value on the over, or

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they think the public's going to go over, so let's

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get out ahead of the market. They go over thirty

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eight and a half. Now a sudden, the line goes

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up to forty. The public starts betting. Come game day,

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goes up.

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Speaker 4: To forty one, forty one and a half.

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Speaker 5: You had an opener of thirty eight, now up to

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forty one and a half. Like at that point, the

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only question is do I go under? Because all the

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value has been extracted. You've gone through thirty eight, thirty nine,

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forty forty one, So the question is do I now

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go under? You already know the premium was attached that

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this total should probably be about thirty seven. So again

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you get a lot of great bets the place, but

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you got to just be very selective. And I think

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that's the key to week two. Take advantage of the

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overreaction because again we don't have enough data to justify

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a lot of the correction. You have one week of

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games and that ultimately should give you some good spots

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to put some money down on.

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Speaker 2: Oh man, yep, the overreaction after one week. Hey, sometimes

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I'm sometimes I'm guilty of it too.

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Speaker 3: Sometimes we have.

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Speaker 5: To answer Justin's question. Great question, brother, great question. I've

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already released three yesterday. I think I sent out the

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third week one college football, So for that first Saturday,

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that package is already off. There's already three football bets

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in there in week one, you just can't wait. I

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talked about it with the NFL. If you're waiting until

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Sunday of Week one to bet NFL and all your

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bets are going in that day, unless you're betting one

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or two bets, you're probably not going to be profitable

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because all the value has been extracted. The sharpest betters

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in the world had months to dig into these numbers

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like they're gonna be as efficient as you're going to

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get early, even though it's early in the season. Because again,

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and please keep this in mind, as efficient and sharp

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as the NFL betting market is, the average game ends

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ten points greater than the points spread.

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Speaker 4: Let me repeat that.

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Speaker 5: Even though we always talk about look how awesome, look

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how good these odds makers are, when they bring out

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teammate is three and the game ends teammate winning by three,

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you know, twenty to seventeen, we're like, wow, they pegged it.

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They nailed it right on. The number was exactly what

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it ended at. Truth of the matter is, even in

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the NFL, the average final score ends ten points off

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of what the closing line is. So even though the

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closing line is that efficient, it's still on average ten

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points off of what the game ends. So again, the

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sportsbook's not trying to predict an outcome. They're simply trying

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to limit their risk and put themselves in a position

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where they don't need the root for any particular team.

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So yeah, be real cautious with that. Again, with these

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big line moves in preseason football, a ton of value,

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but you got to get out early. And again with

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Week one college football, Week one NFL regular season, you

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got to get out ahead of some of these.

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Speaker 4: Come game day, it's going to be tough to find value.

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Speaker 2: Well, let's move to baseball real quick, and then I

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promise talk Dana White Contender Series. I know people were asking,

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they've been asking about it already, which Jeohnny. A couple

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of years ago, if you would have told me we

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would be needing to talk about Contender Series, I wouldn't

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have believed you.

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Speaker 3: But we need to do it. So let's talk baseball

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here real quick.

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Speaker 2: You see in any significant line moves, I already got

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six and a half's popping up on Pittsburg and Philly.

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Speaker 5: We got that load on that under and remember yesterday

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that the Steam did well. But you got to pay

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attention to where these numbers are I think that won total?

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Like I even mentioned that, that's what was frazy. I said,

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we went over eight. Now it's eight and a half

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or nine, but we stopped at eight and it ended

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seven to one. Like if you went over eight and

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a half, you took a bad number. There was no

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reason to do that. Here's what we got so farst

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forward today and prior to Game one yesterday we steamed Atlanta.

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Speaker 4: Forgive me Arizona.

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Speaker 5: Arizona to win the series against Texas plus one ninety five,

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so almost two to one. They lost Game one. They

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were winning that game, but they ended up losing by

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one run. Keep in mind they have Arizona plus one

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ninety five for the series. A couple bets for today

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nine oh four over eight Atlanta, Milwaukee up to minus

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one ten nine oh four, New York Mets minus one

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thirty ninety eleven, Seattle minus one fifty minus one sixty

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nine to seventeen, Boston plus one oh five and under

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eight and a half up to minus one oh five

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nine nineteen Tampa Bay even money and over nine nine

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and a half nine nine twenty five over eight and

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a half and over nine at even money Washington Kansas

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City and last but not least nine twenty two Cubs

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and Toronto over eight and a half, eight and a

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half at minus one twenty five. So that's some of

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the baseball action so far. Early, early, but as you

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can see, they're already getting down.

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Speaker 3: All right.

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Speaker 2: It's Dana White Contender Series twenty twenty five, Week one,

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Gianny and I, this is right in our wheelhouse. This

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is one of our favorite ten week stretches. Let's talk

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about some of these fights here. What any anything jump

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off the page here. I've got some pretty good thoughts.

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I like a lot of unders on this card.

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Speaker 3: What do you think?

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Speaker 6: Great?

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Speaker 4: Great read immediately, because what are we looking at?

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Speaker 5: Three of the five fights are two and a half

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are lined at two and a half. You're usually looking

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at one and a half, especially when you get into

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the higher weight classes like here, three of the fights

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are at middleweight, and yet we're looking at two and

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a half when we know the bias on Contender.

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Speaker 4: Series is towards the under.

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Speaker 5: You can't forget that because Dana wants to see finishes.

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You want to make the roster. You got to impress,

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so they'll take a little more risks because of that

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there's a lot of bias towards the under But here's

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what you can't forget that on average, like they're not

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finishing a lot higher rate than they are in the UFC,

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meaning you expect it to be a little bit higher than,

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you know, fifty to fifty like we see in the

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UFC fifty percent decisions, fifty percent finishes. But even last

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year only sixty three percent the fights ended and finished

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the year prior fifty five percent, two years before that

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fifty two percent, so it's not like they're in.

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Speaker 4: That seventy percent or higher finish rate.

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Speaker 5: Keep that in mind, and also keep in mind favorites

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outperformed last year going into twenty At the end of

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twenty twenty three, the underdogs did well. Favorites only won

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fifty five percent of the fights, so that was a

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dog year. So last year we expected the market to

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bounce back and the favors to do better. That's exactly

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what they did. In fact, going into final week last year,

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favorites were eighty percent. Eighty percent of favorites had won

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going in the week ten, and then the dogs went

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four and one, so when the season ended, favorites still

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won seventy three percent of their fights. Look for those

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favorites to be a little bit overvalued, at least the

250
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first few weeks of the season, and that's what it

251
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looked like because if you look at the opening lines,

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every single line dropped from the opener, except for toy Miller,

253
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who opened my mind one fifty got steamed up the

254
00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:04,600
minus two thirty within ten minutes, then came back down

255
00:12:05,039 --> 00:12:07,840
and since then he's near that two to one favorite.

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Speaker 4: Every other line got steamed towards the dog.

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Speaker 5: So they were a little bit overvalued, and that's what

258
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we expected the market to do, and that's what they're

259
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doing so far, real quickly. Two fighters that jumped off

260
00:12:20,799 --> 00:12:25,000
the page at me, suskas Kaiev, I'll have to get

261
00:12:25,000 --> 00:12:29,559
that pronunciation during the meeting over Taha. Seven and a

262
00:12:29,559 --> 00:12:33,360
half inch reach advantage almost five inches, just his kicks

263
00:12:33,440 --> 00:12:34,480
to an advantage.

264
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Speaker 4: The kid's a stud.

265
00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:39,000
Speaker 5: He's got the wrestling background as well. This is a

266
00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:42,600
chalky chalky favorite, but I think it's warranted and a live.

267
00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:45,000
Speaker 4: Dog for you. Again, this is early. Please don't paint

268
00:12:45,039 --> 00:12:45,759
me in a corner.

269
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Speaker 5: I could be opposite these by the time the fight starts,

270
00:12:49,080 --> 00:12:52,360
because I didn't release any premiums get two subscribers. I'm

271
00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:54,720
still working on it. I still have a production meeting

272
00:12:54,720 --> 00:12:57,039
where I get a lot of good information and even

273
00:12:57,120 --> 00:13:01,360
get to see these fighters before the show starts. But

274
00:13:01,480 --> 00:13:04,799
I do think Bradley Da Silva offers up some value

275
00:13:04,879 --> 00:13:07,679
at plus money. Most of the value has been extracted

276
00:13:07,720 --> 00:13:10,360
because Mangos opened minus four hundred, got that down to

277
00:13:10,440 --> 00:13:13,600
minus three hundred. Now it's about minus one fifty favorite,

278
00:13:13,679 --> 00:13:16,000
so the price really changed on Mangos.

279
00:13:16,480 --> 00:13:17,799
Speaker 4: But I thought the Silva.

280
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Speaker 5: At plus money offered some value there for sure. If

281
00:13:20,399 --> 00:13:22,039
he could, if he could get out of the first round,

282
00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:22,840
I think he's live.

283
00:13:24,159 --> 00:13:26,559
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, we got e were versus Paan for off.

284
00:13:26,559 --> 00:13:28,320
I don't think that fight goes the distance. I actually

285
00:13:28,399 --> 00:13:30,240
liked the under one and a half plus one seventy five.

286
00:13:30,279 --> 00:13:33,840
Panfrov will make that a firefight. Ewart's got power ewert

287
00:13:33,879 --> 00:13:34,720
minus two thirty.

288
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Speaker 3: I wouldn't.

289
00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:36,840
Speaker 2: I wouldn't lay minus two thirty because, like I said,

290
00:13:36,879 --> 00:13:39,840
Panfrof is going to turn that into an absolute brawl

291
00:13:40,200 --> 00:13:41,360
Mangos and Da Silva.

292
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Speaker 3: I actually like Mangos.

293
00:13:42,679 --> 00:13:44,720
Speaker 2: I love this series that he comes out of the

294
00:13:44,720 --> 00:13:46,080
Heck series those Australian games.

295
00:13:46,159 --> 00:13:47,519
Speaker 6: Yeah, and the titles and a title.

296
00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:49,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's why I was on Mangos. It's the line

297
00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:50,600
scare in me.

298
00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:54,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, you're right about Sushra Kaiyev. I think Tall

299
00:13:54,879 --> 00:13:56,720
has kind of bad. He got beat up pretty bad

300
00:13:56,840 --> 00:13:58,639
last Contender series. They said he may have had a

301
00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:01,120
knee injury. So he comes out of a tender series

302
00:14:01,159 --> 00:14:04,279
and he fights a guy who's so bad they disqualified

303
00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:07,440
all of his fights. They said, you're so bad you're

304
00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:09,519
not actually a fighter. So that's the tallest fight. He

305
00:14:09,559 --> 00:14:12,120
can't block a leg kick. You're right, Suser Kaias and stuff.

306
00:14:12,159 --> 00:14:14,639
Ty Miller and Drago, I think both these guys are

307
00:14:14,679 --> 00:14:15,639
gonna end up in UFC.

308
00:14:15,759 --> 00:14:17,120
Speaker 3: They're both good. Ty Miller if you.

309
00:14:17,120 --> 00:14:20,879
Speaker 2: Haven't seen him, punch snappy jabs like that fight Under

310
00:14:20,879 --> 00:14:24,559
two and a half, just because each other. I know

311
00:14:24,639 --> 00:14:26,600
the same with Mangoes into Silver. I think both those

312
00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:29,039
guys could end up in UFC. But Miller and Drago

313
00:14:29,159 --> 00:14:31,360
I think goes under. Miller's got these long jabs can

314
00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:34,480
knock you out. Drago's huge step up in competition. And

315
00:14:34,519 --> 00:14:36,679
then Buffy and saying ten, I gotta be honest, I'm

316
00:14:36,679 --> 00:14:38,919
not too excited about that one. But uh, the under

317
00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:41,200
two and a half is superjuice. But I can't quite

318
00:14:41,399 --> 00:14:43,639
can't quite get there. So all right, Giohnny, we're gonna

319
00:14:43,679 --> 00:14:48,960
let you go. Anything in w NBA steamed.

320
00:14:49,000 --> 00:14:50,600
Speaker 4: I didn't bet it, I didn't release it.

321
00:14:50,679 --> 00:14:53,279
Speaker 5: They laid the six, they went to seven and eight,

322
00:14:53,399 --> 00:14:55,360
now nine quickly. I didn't get out ahead of it,

323
00:14:55,399 --> 00:14:57,919
so I just let it go. I said, next one,

324
00:14:58,480 --> 00:15:02,600
I do have five percent four my five dollars. Tuesday

325
00:15:02,600 --> 00:15:05,519
play is up the biggest bet on the Major League

326
00:15:05,559 --> 00:15:06,159
Baseball board.

327
00:15:06,159 --> 00:15:06,919
Speaker 4: That's all I did.

328
00:15:07,159 --> 00:15:09,159
Speaker 5: The one that I already had is throwing lean on

329
00:15:09,320 --> 00:15:10,799
and then multiple groups bet it.

330
00:15:10,879 --> 00:15:13,679
Speaker 4: And then I looked and the public's actually opposite. I'm like, dude,

331
00:15:13,679 --> 00:15:16,480
that's the perfect storm. I'm not moving away from it.

332
00:15:16,600 --> 00:15:19,120
I was looking at Contender Series or UFC for Saturday.

333
00:15:19,200 --> 00:15:19,919
Is the fight dollar fake?

334
00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:22,159
Speaker 5: But I'm like, I'm giving just the biggest throngest bet

335
00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:24,679
I have on the board for today. It's a Major

336
00:15:24,759 --> 00:15:27,840
League Baseball It's up at wagers talk dot com. Don't

337
00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:30,759
forget watch the Contender Series tonight on ESPN Plus.

338
00:15:30,799 --> 00:15:32,000
Speaker 4: Starts early this week.

339
00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:35,159
Speaker 5: It's seven pm Eastern the first week in season. That's

340
00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:36,759
what they do next week or to go back to

341
00:15:36,919 --> 00:15:38,399
normal eight pm Eastern.

342
00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:39,960
Speaker 4: I'll be on throughout the show.

343
00:15:40,360 --> 00:15:42,559
Speaker 5: Parlay before the show, I have to give out of

344
00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:44,120
parlay every week before this.

345
00:15:44,240 --> 00:15:44,919
Speaker 4: When the show.

346
00:15:44,799 --> 00:15:48,279
Speaker 3: Starts out this way, I watch you the totals.

347
00:15:47,840 --> 00:15:51,120
Speaker 5: Parlay on top of it, like there's five fights, I

348
00:15:51,159 --> 00:15:53,360
have to give out three of them, and then people

349
00:15:53,519 --> 00:15:54,120
bitch if it.

350
00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:56,399
Speaker 4: Has That's like telling somebody on the Saturday that there's

351
00:15:56,480 --> 00:15:59,080
UFC twelve twelve fights. You got to give us six

352
00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:00,440
totals six.

353
00:16:00,799 --> 00:16:02,919
Speaker 3: That's a no win situation. It's no win.

354
00:16:03,559 --> 00:16:06,559
Speaker 4: I love hopefully.

355
00:16:05,799 --> 00:16:07,799
Speaker 6: Well, guys.

356
00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:10,399
Speaker 2: Give us a shout out because we'll be watching live

357
00:16:10,480 --> 00:16:11,840
every every single week.

358
00:16:11,960 --> 00:16:14,600
Speaker 4: Getting your swag too. I haven't forgotten brother, I love it.

359
00:16:14,639 --> 00:16:15,519
Speaker 3: I love it. Jeioatty.

360
00:16:15,559 --> 00:16:17,799
Speaker 2: The Greek go grab is five dollars play. Thanks, Johnny,

361
00:16:17,879 --> 00:16:18,399
have a great night.

362
00:16:18,679 --> 00:16:19,320
Speaker 3: Tendor series.

363
00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:23,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's five dollars Tuesday. I mean, guys, it's five

364
00:16:23,279 --> 00:16:26,000
dollars Tuesday. Let's get excited. The value today is insane.

365
00:16:26,039 --> 00:16:28,279
Every Capra has a play for just five bucks.

366
00:16:28,799 --> 00:16:29,279
Speaker 3: That's right.

367
00:16:29,399 --> 00:16:31,480
Speaker 2: It's the same bets that we normally have for the

368
00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:34,399
price of a cup of coffee, stack them, mix them,

369
00:16:34,399 --> 00:16:36,879
try something new. Whatever you do, do not sit out

370
00:16:36,879 --> 00:16:39,399
five dollars Tuesday. Get as many bets as you want to,

371
00:16:39,480 --> 00:16:42,960
but again, bet responsibly. I am doing a DANEA White

372
00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:46,440
Contender Series play as my five dollars Tuesday every single

373
00:16:46,480 --> 00:16:48,879
Tuesday for the entire season. So starting today, in the

374
00:16:48,879 --> 00:16:51,720
next nine weeks, my five dollars play is Contender Series

375
00:16:51,759 --> 00:16:52,480
that is up.

376
00:16:52,600 --> 00:16:53,919
Speaker 3: Absolutely love this play.

377
00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:57,279
Speaker 2: I love researching Contender Series and as always, we will

378
00:16:57,320 --> 00:16:59,759
be we will be going live on our YouTube channel

379
00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:02,639
to watch Contender Series. If you want to watch Contender Series,

380
00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:05,799
join us there. All right, let's bring on my good

381
00:17:05,799 --> 00:17:09,920
friend Lawrence Presman, who we have not talked to in

382
00:17:09,960 --> 00:17:13,000
a while. My gosh, Lawrence, how has your summer been

383
00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:13,559
so far?

384
00:17:13,960 --> 00:17:18,440
Speaker 7: Oh dude, I'm like so close to being back to work.

385
00:17:19,079 --> 00:17:23,480
The summer's been amazing. Really done very little, to be

386
00:17:23,519 --> 00:17:26,200
honest with you, took took the advantage of the fact

387
00:17:26,240 --> 00:17:28,759
that you took the show over and you know, had

388
00:17:28,799 --> 00:17:31,880
a great run in poker, had an incredible April, had

389
00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:36,640
a better w sop final table, the seniors event. I

390
00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:39,799
don't think we've spoken since I've done that, So that

391
00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:45,799
really made me very happy. Yeah, one about three hundred

392
00:17:45,839 --> 00:17:49,599
and ten thousand dollars Canadians. So what is that about?

393
00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:53,559
Four dollars one dollar less than the five dollars Tuesday play.

394
00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:55,839
Speaker 2: You can get a five dollars Tuesday play with you

395
00:17:56,079 --> 00:17:57,640
with your congraduate three.

396
00:17:57,599 --> 00:18:01,359
Speaker 7: Hundred and ten thousand US Since April Bay, somebody asked me, hey,

397
00:18:01,359 --> 00:18:03,680
pres what do you do these days? I'm like, I'm

398
00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:05,160
a professional poker player.

399
00:18:05,279 --> 00:18:08,000
Speaker 3: Bitch, love it, love it, love it.

400
00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:11,319
Speaker 2: All Right, Well, we got some things to talk about here.

401
00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:15,480
We're going to talk about an NFC division winner. You

402
00:18:15,599 --> 00:18:18,519
got an AFC conference winner, and you have a long

403
00:18:18,559 --> 00:18:21,160
shot that I'm sure is going to bring down the house.

404
00:18:21,279 --> 00:18:24,240
So let's start with your NFC division, which division you're

405
00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:25,160
go in with and.

406
00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:26,400
Speaker 3: Who do you like it? Plus money?

407
00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:31,960
Speaker 7: So before we get into that, sorry Andy, but it's me.

408
00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:35,240
We're also going to talk about the fact that we

409
00:18:35,279 --> 00:18:40,640
are announcing my new show today on your show, and

410
00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:45,960
we're announcing another show today on your show. We have

411
00:18:46,240 --> 00:18:52,000
a ton of information and we're using your show to

412
00:18:52,079 --> 00:18:55,359
do it. But before we get into that, my great

413
00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:59,119
friend Andy Lang, let's get into some sports betting, and yeah,

414
00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:01,720
so a division winner that I love, Andy, And I'm

415
00:19:01,759 --> 00:19:05,799
telling you this is likely going to be a client play.

416
00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:10,559
I very rarely release future bets. I have only released

417
00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:14,680
eleven future bets in my life. I'm eight and three.

418
00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:20,960
I absolutely love this bet and what it is is

419
00:19:21,039 --> 00:19:24,720
San Francisco forty nine ers winning the division NFC West

420
00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:28,240
at plus one fifty. And you know that the bottom

421
00:19:28,279 --> 00:19:31,519
line here is I'd like to take Seattle and Arizona

422
00:19:31,599 --> 00:19:34,240
out of the quest for this division if you will,

423
00:19:35,039 --> 00:19:39,680
can Arizona step up? Sure? Seattle, I think are gonna

424
00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:42,440
be way behind the pack, But I don't think those

425
00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:44,960
guys are going to really vie for the opportunity to

426
00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:47,559
win the NFC West. I think it's gonna come down

427
00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:50,960
to the Rams at plus one ninety five Andrand plus

428
00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:52,920
one fifty. And we have to look at the brand

429
00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:56,599
thing and say, Okay, they lost Deebo. Well, they didn't

430
00:19:56,640 --> 00:19:58,920
have Deebo a lot last year either or the year

431
00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:03,519
before that, and is perennially injured and Brandon Ayuk out

432
00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:06,960
it looks like until week six. But man, I go

433
00:20:07,079 --> 00:20:10,720
down the Fran team, Andy, and you can jump in

434
00:20:10,799 --> 00:20:13,400
any time. I think they have the best defense in

435
00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:17,960
the NFC West and maybe a top three defense in

436
00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:23,759
all of football. This defense is absolutely stacked, So I'm

437
00:20:23,759 --> 00:20:28,599
gonna i have the best defense in this division by far,

438
00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:33,759
and I'm getting plus one fifty. Not only that, but

439
00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:36,480
I think their offense is gonna be just fine. You're

440
00:20:36,519 --> 00:20:44,400
gonna have a well rested, revived and resuscitated CMC back

441
00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:47,079
and ready to go. I think we have the best

442
00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:51,480
player in the division on San Francisco, best defense, best

443
00:20:51,519 --> 00:20:56,759
player I think we have. Listen, Sean mcmay is an

444
00:20:56,759 --> 00:21:00,160
incredible coach. I am a monster and a boat to

445
00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:03,240
these coaches. I think it's a draw, but I love

446
00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:07,119
the coach for the San Francisco forty nine ers, and

447
00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:10,519
once Brandon i Who comes back, We're gonna have that

448
00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:15,000
triple threat where you have the running best running back

449
00:21:15,079 --> 00:21:18,920
in the division, best tight end in the division, and

450
00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:24,200
a really, really, really good wide receiver who could stretch

451
00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:27,559
the field. I don't look at the Rams as some juggernaut.

452
00:21:27,839 --> 00:21:30,039
I think their defense is going to be weaker this

453
00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:33,119
year than it was last year. I think their offense

454
00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:36,279
is going to sputter. They're gonna have some great games

455
00:21:36,319 --> 00:21:39,119
and some bad games, and I think the San fran

456
00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:42,519
team is hungry as hell, and as far as the

457
00:21:42,599 --> 00:21:46,880
debo loss goes, I think that bodes well for the

458
00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:50,319
San Francisco forty nine ers because I think they realize

459
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:55,720
everybody to a man, realizes their window is closing. This

460
00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:59,599
is their shot. I think San brand is a decent

461
00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:03,759
bet to win the NFC. I think San bren is

462
00:22:03,759 --> 00:22:06,319
a decent bet to win it all. I think San

463
00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:09,559
Bren is a great bet to win the division. And

464
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:13,519
I like CMC to be MVP as well, although obviously

465
00:22:13,559 --> 00:22:16,079
he's not a quarterback. So there is a whole lot

466
00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:19,400
of info on the go forty nine ers. I am

467
00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:22,039
high on this team. If I could roll them, I

468
00:22:22,079 --> 00:22:22,920
would smoke him.

469
00:22:23,799 --> 00:22:24,240
Speaker 3: All right.

470
00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:26,799
Speaker 2: I think the best thing you have going for you

471
00:22:26,839 --> 00:22:30,039
with that bet is the schedule. It's easy, schedule out

472
00:22:30,079 --> 00:22:33,960
on paper, and Matthew Stafford's back. It's just not gonna

473
00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:37,200
be one hundred percent this year. So all right, let's

474
00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:40,559
go to the AFC. You got a plus money conference.

475
00:22:40,559 --> 00:22:42,680
Well they're all plus money, but you're going You're going

476
00:22:42,759 --> 00:22:44,000
conference winner, correct?

477
00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:44,400
Speaker 5: Yeah?

478
00:22:44,519 --> 00:22:47,680
Speaker 7: Yeah, So, And I like what you said about Matthew Stafford.

479
00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:49,599
The only thing there is that. I just can't count

480
00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:52,920
that guy out, Like like he could have one arm

481
00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:54,920
and come out and be like, you know, we'll be

482
00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:58,440
like handicap. Matthew Stafford is missing his right arm, and

483
00:22:58,519 --> 00:23:01,440
he is a right handed quarter. I'd say we play

484
00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:04,839
against him, comes out and throws seven touchdowns with his left.

485
00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:08,680
So I'm not gonna count Matthew Stafford out. I just

486
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:12,160
don't think the Rams are have the team around him.

487
00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:16,039
As for your conference winner, look last year I released

488
00:23:16,079 --> 00:23:18,440
the Buffalo Bills to win the division and now they

489
00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:21,640
are minus three hundred to win the division, which is

490
00:23:22,599 --> 00:23:27,000
too big for me to make, but I consider that

491
00:23:27,039 --> 00:23:29,279
to be an incredible bet. Now. I think people are

492
00:23:29,279 --> 00:23:31,799
gonna be like minus three ten. Why would you do

493
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:36,880
minus three ten? Well, I think it wins more than

494
00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:39,480
thirty percent of the time. I think it wins. I

495
00:23:39,519 --> 00:23:43,160
think Buffalo in this spot with the Patriots, the Dolphins,

496
00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:45,920
and the Jets win this division fifty percent of the time.

497
00:23:46,279 --> 00:23:48,880
So I think the division bet is a reasonable bet.

498
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:52,240
But I prefer the conference bet. And I'll tell you

499
00:23:52,319 --> 00:23:55,000
right now, I think the conference comes down to three teams.

500
00:23:55,559 --> 00:23:59,519
Baltimore at plus three forty, Buffalo at plus three forty

501
00:23:59,759 --> 00:24:02,920
and Kansas City at plus four to twenty five. So

502
00:24:03,279 --> 00:24:06,680
if you look at Buffalo and Baltimore equally at plus

503
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:11,279
three forty, where you would go next when handicapping is say, okay,

504
00:24:11,759 --> 00:24:16,240
what is Baltimore to win their division? Well, Baltimore to

505
00:24:16,279 --> 00:24:19,440
win their division is minus one sixty five. Now we

506
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:24,720
know as a fact that you cannot win the conference

507
00:24:24,839 --> 00:24:27,720
if you don't win your division, because there would be

508
00:24:27,759 --> 00:24:31,319
a team above you. So if the line makers are

509
00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:35,359
telling us that Baltimore has a minus one sixty five

510
00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:41,079
chance to win their division, and Buffalo has a minus

511
00:24:41,079 --> 00:24:44,680
three ten chance to win their division, and the Kansas

512
00:24:44,759 --> 00:24:48,640
City Chiefs have a minus one twenty chance to win

513
00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:52,759
their division, the book makers are telling you flat out

514
00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:57,440
that the one division winner out of those three as

515
00:24:57,519 --> 00:25:00,920
close to guaranteed as it gets is Buffalo. Now we

516
00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:03,960
take apart the schedules. Kansas City and Baltimore have a

517
00:25:04,079 --> 00:25:09,839
nightmare schedule. Baltimore has to play Cincinnati twice, Pittsburgh twice,

518
00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:12,880
and I think we see a better Cleveland team. I

519
00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:16,279
wouldn't even be surprised if Baltimore goes three and three

520
00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:20,039
or four and two, say four and two against their Division.

521
00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:23,880
Kansas City has a much tougher Denver Bronco team in

522
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:27,920
their division, a much tougher LA Chargers team in their division,

523
00:25:29,079 --> 00:25:31,519
and a Raiders team while I think they get both.

524
00:25:31,599 --> 00:25:33,839
So that leaves us with the Bills. Go look at

525
00:25:33,839 --> 00:25:36,720
this Bill schedule, guys. Not only do they have six

526
00:25:36,799 --> 00:25:40,359
games in the weakest division potentially in all of football,

527
00:25:40,759 --> 00:25:44,000
the Patriots, the Dolphins, and the Jets. They're a joke,

528
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:46,960
so that I think is a minimum five to one.

529
00:25:47,319 --> 00:25:50,720
But if you dig deep into the bill schedule, it's

530
00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:55,960
way easier than Baltimore's. With that said, what an opening

531
00:25:56,039 --> 00:26:00,920
night game Andy Baltimore against Buffalo in buff which might

532
00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:04,039
come down to who wins or loses the bet. So

533
00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:08,400
I got the home team, I got the team with

534
00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:11,599
much better odds to win their division. I got a

535
00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:15,200
team with a much easier schedule, and I got a

536
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:17,400
team that is not going to lose a bunch of

537
00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:22,599
division games. I'll take Buffalo at plus money to win

538
00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:23,319
the conference.

539
00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:28,599
Speaker 2: All right, you just gotta hope he avoids Patrick Mahomes

540
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:29,759
and you're home free.

541
00:26:30,079 --> 00:26:33,200
Speaker 7: I don't care about Patrick Mahomes. We're going with the conference.

542
00:26:33,599 --> 00:26:36,559
This is the league, not the playoffs.

543
00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:41,400
Speaker 3: Oh okay, okay, we have owned Patrick Mahomes.

544
00:26:41,559 --> 00:26:45,680
Speaker 7: Buffalo has owned Patrick Mahomes in the regular season. I

545
00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:48,920
don't care what happens in the playoffs.

546
00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:52,160
Speaker 2: I got you, I got you, all right, Well, give

547
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:54,720
us your long shot division winner.

548
00:26:54,839 --> 00:26:56,200
Speaker 3: Buckle up on this one.

549
00:26:56,559 --> 00:26:59,920
Speaker 7: Yeah. So my long shot division winner is really straightforward here.

550
00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:03,119
And you know, I was speaking to the most awesomest

551
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:08,039
Kelly Stewart yesterday and she agrees with me. I like,

552
00:27:08,599 --> 00:27:12,200
as a long shot, the Dallas Cowboys plus five point

553
00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:14,920
fifty to win the division, you can get them up

554
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:18,160
to six to one to win this division. Now let's

555
00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:21,880
take the Giants out of the equation. Hey, you know,

556
00:27:22,039 --> 00:27:27,359
maybe Russell Wilson finds his Tommy DeVito and plays really well.

557
00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:30,720
I don't know who cares the Giants out. So now

558
00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:33,000
we have Washington and Philly, and I look at this

559
00:27:33,039 --> 00:27:35,279
Philadelphia team and I'm like, Okay, this is the best

560
00:27:35,319 --> 00:27:38,839
team in the division. It's why they're minus won thirty five.

561
00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:41,720
But I think we see a Super Bowl hangover. I

562
00:27:41,759 --> 00:27:45,240
think we see a regression with Philadelphia. I don't think

563
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:47,599
Philadelphia is going to be the same team they were

564
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:50,799
last year. And as for Washington, Well, we saw what

565
00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:54,200
happened with CJ. Stroud in his sophomore year. The same

566
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:58,160
thing can happen to Jaden Daniels. I don't think this

567
00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:01,920
Washington team is stacked. I think they have a good offense.

568
00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:05,960
I think they lack players playmakers on defense. I think

569
00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:08,200
they're there to be taken. And when you look at

570
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:12,400
this Dallas Cowboy team, I love their new coach. I

571
00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:16,440
think they have Look, I'm assuming Micah Parsons plays for

572
00:28:16,559 --> 00:28:19,720
them in this beat, so they have the best defender

573
00:28:21,039 --> 00:28:24,119
in the division. On their side of the field. They

574
00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:28,599
have an incredible wide receiver. They have a hungry, angry quarterback.

575
00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:32,440
I look at this Dallas team and I think they're

576
00:28:32,519 --> 00:28:35,920
going to upset teams. And on top of it, they

577
00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:40,119
have an easier schedule than Philadelphia. So I think I

578
00:28:40,119 --> 00:28:43,519
would take Dallas right now plus seven week one. I

579
00:28:43,599 --> 00:28:45,880
don't think that number is going to be there, And

580
00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:47,839
I like Dallas as a long shot to win the

581
00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:50,119
division at plus five point fifty, I think they're the

582
00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:52,359
best long shot out there.

583
00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:56,079
Speaker 3: I think you're certifiably insane.

584
00:28:57,759 --> 00:29:02,039
Speaker 7: It took this. It took till to day like this

585
00:29:02,119 --> 00:29:03,920
is when you made that assessment.

586
00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:08,839
Speaker 2: No, no, no, no, hey, listen, there's gonna be surprises.

587
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:12,359
Speaker 3: There are every year. You just gotta get one to hit.

588
00:29:12,599 --> 00:29:12,759
Speaker 8: Uh.

589
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:14,759
Speaker 3: So, yeah, things could go your way.

590
00:29:14,839 --> 00:29:17,359
Speaker 7: So why what's your problem with the Cowboys? You think

591
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:20,240
Philly and Washington are so much more like. Philly is

592
00:29:20,279 --> 00:29:23,359
a good team, for sure, but this is a team.

593
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:24,400
Speaker 3: That's the super Bowl champs.

594
00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:28,640
Speaker 2: Yes, yeah, they've done well, They've done well for themselves.

595
00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:30,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, that's a great point.

596
00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:33,799
Speaker 2: The commanders on the upswing, they're gonna have a tougher schedule.

597
00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:35,880
But I just can't buy into Dak Prescott.

598
00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:38,039
Speaker 3: That's all. That's all. It's simply a Dak.

599
00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:41,480
Speaker 2: Prescott thing and the Jerry Jones thing and the Cowboys things.

600
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:45,359
Speaker 7: I'm no Jerry, I'm no, and I'm no Jerry Jones fan,

601
00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:50,000
that's for sure. And I'm no Dak Prescott fan. But

602
00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:51,519
Philly will regress.

603
00:29:51,599 --> 00:29:55,400
Speaker 2: Andy Lang all right, all right, Okay, you have a

604
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:58,640
new show and it's five dollars Tuesday, So tell us

605
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:01,279
about the show first, then tell us about your play.

606
00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 7: Okay, So the show Andy starts on Monday, September first.

607
00:30:10,799 --> 00:30:15,200
It is a week a daily show Monday Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday,

608
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:18,519
and Friday. We will be taping the show at ten

609
00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:24,160
thirty am Eastern Time. It will not be a live show.

610
00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:28,160
The show will be forty five minutes long. It will

611
00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:32,759
be hosted by myself. That will not have guests. It

612
00:30:32,799 --> 00:30:37,960
will only have two regular daily people joining me. The

613
00:30:38,039 --> 00:30:43,759
show will be me Joveniary and Art to Caesar. That'll

614
00:30:43,799 --> 00:30:47,359
be the show myself, jove Niary and Art to Caesar.

615
00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:50,880
We are. It's gonna be like nothing we've ever done

616
00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:54,039
on Wager Talk. The show is gonna be up against

617
00:30:54,039 --> 00:30:58,920
the clock. We have ten ten to twelve segments every

618
00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:02,720
single day. They will all be time segments to give

619
00:31:02,759 --> 00:31:06,039
you perspective. We're gonna be bring We're gonna be talking

620
00:31:06,079 --> 00:31:10,839
about all the main sports, but we're also gonna be

621
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:15,160
doing predict the predictive betting market where you find you know,

622
00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:18,200
when will the tariffs come in, who will be the

623
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:21,680
mayor of New York. We're gonna be discussing that kind

624
00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:24,440
of stuff as well. We're gonna do bad beats. We're

625
00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:28,000
gonna do every game on the board. We're not gonna

626
00:31:28,039 --> 00:31:31,680
do big game breakdowns. The show will not be ten

627
00:31:31,759 --> 00:31:35,720
minutes on one particular game. So I'll give you a

628
00:31:35,799 --> 00:31:42,279
quick rundown of say pick a day, Andy Pickaday, Thursday

629
00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:47,599
Thursday's show. We have a three minute opening segment. Then

630
00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:51,039
we will take a part in the Thursday night football game.

631
00:31:51,319 --> 00:31:54,359
But we will do it. We'll do every part of it,

632
00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:58,480
the ats, the total prop bet, same game parlay. Then

633
00:31:58,519 --> 00:32:01,119
we're gonna do a segment called bet your body part.

634
00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:04,480
That's where we decide how strong a bet is based

635
00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:09,559
on whether we're prepared to bet our or our and

636
00:32:09,599 --> 00:32:14,640
then we will have the on Thursday, the college football segment,

637
00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:18,279
the five biggest primetime games on the board. Art the

638
00:32:18,359 --> 00:32:21,480
Caesar will go behind the counter. Then we'll do a

639
00:32:21,519 --> 00:32:24,759
segment on what does Art like. Then we're gonna do

640
00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:28,400
every day. We will be giving out a three team parlay.

641
00:32:28,920 --> 00:32:31,079
Art will pick one, I will pick one, Joe n

642
00:32:31,079 --> 00:32:34,680
Airy will pick one. Then we'll have the every game

643
00:32:34,759 --> 00:32:38,240
on the board. We're always gonna have pop culture movies,

644
00:32:38,359 --> 00:32:42,519
TV shows, investment strategies, and then we'll have a summary

645
00:32:42,799 --> 00:32:46,559
end of show. Bam, that'll be the Thursday show. Thank

646
00:32:46,599 --> 00:32:47,920
you for asking, Andy.

647
00:32:48,279 --> 00:32:51,519
Speaker 2: I love it, man, that's exciting a little little variety.

648
00:32:51,599 --> 00:32:54,400
Variety is the spice of life. Congratulations to you three.

649
00:32:54,640 --> 00:32:56,079
That'll be a lot of fun. I can't wait to

650
00:32:56,119 --> 00:32:56,440
watch it.

651
00:32:57,079 --> 00:32:59,799
Speaker 3: So yeah, start September first, Yeah, we are.

652
00:33:00,599 --> 00:33:03,519
Speaker 7: We are going to be doing an NFL preview show

653
00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:07,640
next week and a college football preview show next week.

654
00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:10,599
But the real concept of the show is super quick

655
00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:15,599
Hitters with three, with two incredible betters and a bookmaker

656
00:33:16,039 --> 00:33:18,400
the show. Nay, Andy, are you ready for the name

657
00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:18,960
of the show?

658
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:20,079
Speaker 3: Hit me with it?

659
00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:27,319
Speaker 7: The best betting show ever. That's it, simple.

660
00:33:27,960 --> 00:33:30,079
Speaker 3: Chat EBT can't come up with that? Or was that?

661
00:33:30,119 --> 00:33:32,440
Did you chat?

662
00:33:32,519 --> 00:33:34,200
Speaker 7: LP chat LP?

663
00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:34,759
Speaker 3: Okay?

664
00:33:34,799 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, Well I'm excited for you. I'm excited

665
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:40,200
to have press back in my life, no doubt. All right,

666
00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:41,839
it's five dollars Tuesday. What do you have up for

667
00:33:41,839 --> 00:33:42,799
everyone at wait you talk?

668
00:33:43,119 --> 00:33:43,359
Speaker 3: Yeah?

669
00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:46,960
Speaker 7: So I got and then I got a four percent

670
00:33:47,119 --> 00:33:50,519
play in Major League Baseball and it is a money

671
00:33:50,599 --> 00:33:54,119
line bet. These four percent plays are very very rare

672
00:33:54,160 --> 00:33:56,480
for me. Every Andy Capper can do their own thing.

673
00:33:56,559 --> 00:34:01,880
I get it, total respect. I've released two four percent

674
00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:06,160
baseball plays this entire season. I've released forty four percent

675
00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:11,760
plays since January. I'm sixty nine percent in four percent

676
00:34:11,840 --> 00:34:15,440
play since January forty of them. I'm on a nine

677
00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:18,960
to one run in this play, and I've won both

678
00:34:19,079 --> 00:34:22,400
my two in baseball, So ninety five percent of my

679
00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:25,639
plays are two percent and three percent plays. I really

680
00:34:25,679 --> 00:34:28,039
am stepping out when I release a four percent play.

681
00:34:28,119 --> 00:34:33,519
I have one tonight. I also have a flash sale going,

682
00:34:33,559 --> 00:34:36,599
Andy Lang. It's only for the next twenty four hours.

683
00:34:37,000 --> 00:34:41,400
You buy my NFL season, you get my college football

684
00:34:41,440 --> 00:34:44,880
season for free, so you head over if you do

685
00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:47,239
decide to play my NFL, which would be a very

686
00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:50,719
wise move as I kill it in NFL, You'll get

687
00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:55,320
my college football for free. The clock starts now, you

688
00:34:55,320 --> 00:34:59,320
have twenty more hours to take advantage of that. And lastly, oh,

689
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:03,360
two more things. The NFL Presidential Address will be back

690
00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:08,280
this year. Day one will be Tuesday, September second, And

691
00:35:08,280 --> 00:35:14,199
Andy Lang, we got a Sunday show Common one to

692
00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:21,760
four o'clock live, a live show while watching all the games.

693
00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:26,679
I will be participating in that show, and I'm excited.

694
00:35:26,760 --> 00:35:29,679
Shout out to Johnny Detroit and his team, Chris Allen, Dan,

695
00:35:29,840 --> 00:35:33,760
you guys were figuring that out. That's gonna be a

696
00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:37,079
fun show. You're gonna get to see me freaking out

697
00:35:37,079 --> 00:35:40,679
over NFL football. Did I add him trigger that segment

698
00:35:40,760 --> 00:35:41,480
or what? Andy?

699
00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:43,800
Speaker 3: No, we haven't seen you in a while.

700
00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:47,119
Speaker 2: I just want to say, for the record, I've been

701
00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:49,960
begging for live shows.

702
00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:52,440
Speaker 3: I was flat out told no, And now you guys

703
00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:54,239
are bragging that we're having a live show.

704
00:35:54,639 --> 00:35:57,280
Speaker 2: This is an amazing moment for me. So but it's

705
00:35:57,280 --> 00:35:59,000
gonna be awesome. It's gonna be awesome.

706
00:36:00,119 --> 00:36:01,679
Speaker 3: It's good to see you. Go grab that.

707
00:36:01,679 --> 00:36:05,000
Speaker 2: Special, go grab that five dollars play. We have the

708
00:36:05,039 --> 00:36:06,280
real Adam Trigger coming on.

709
00:36:06,679 --> 00:36:11,559
Speaker 7: Yeah, And and Andy, I hope to I hope to

710
00:36:11,559 --> 00:36:13,679
see throughout the year. I'm gonna ask to be on

711
00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:18,599
your show regularly so you and I can continue to

712
00:36:18,719 --> 00:36:21,480
do this. Plus I really do miss Dan and his

713
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:27,119
extremely dark humor. Other than that, guys, make sure to

714
00:36:27,159 --> 00:36:30,400
watch the new show, The Best Betting Show Ever, starts

715
00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:33,559
on September. First, Me, Joe and Arian Art to Caesar.

716
00:36:34,039 --> 00:36:39,239
Lots of love everyone, One of a kind.

717
00:36:39,639 --> 00:36:41,840
Speaker 3: Lawrence Presman, amazing job.

718
00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:44,320
Speaker 2: All right, Dan, let's go all around the world, give

719
00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:45,719
the people some free winners.

720
00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:45,960
Speaker 3: Here.

721
00:36:46,599 --> 00:36:49,679
Speaker 2: We got a couple of baseball plays and then we

722
00:36:49,800 --> 00:36:53,480
got a w NBA play. We're gonna start with Jimmy

723
00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:56,800
Adams and his play Mariners at the Orioles Mariners minus one.

724
00:36:56,960 --> 00:36:59,800
Mariners won seventh straight. The acquisitions they've made at the

725
00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:03,320
Tree Deadliner paying off Kirby first. Seattle only allowed two

726
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:05,519
runs last two starts, and the Mariners a one nine

727
00:37:05,519 --> 00:37:08,119
out of the last eleven games that he started and

728
00:37:08,199 --> 00:37:08,639
were fading.

729
00:37:08,679 --> 00:37:11,320
Speaker 3: Kramer for Baltimore allowed four runs last game.

730
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:13,760
Speaker 2: Seattle better bullpen, so let's take advantage of that minus

731
00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:17,679
one market. Teddy Covers loves the Dodgers minus one and

732
00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:20,119
a half. They are a top five winning percentage team

733
00:37:20,119 --> 00:37:22,840
when they come off a loss. Their bullpen is getting healthy.

734
00:37:23,159 --> 00:37:26,360
Huge advantage in the bullpen for the Dodgers, and Madero's

735
00:37:26,559 --> 00:37:28,320
starting for the Angels does not eat up a lot

736
00:37:28,360 --> 00:37:30,880
of innings, so expect the Dodgers to pull away, relate

737
00:37:31,000 --> 00:37:35,320
against that weak Angels bullpen, and then Wnba wings at Fever.

738
00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:38,159
The line started at one sixty eight, so now up

739
00:37:38,159 --> 00:37:39,519
to one seventy two and a half. This is a

740
00:37:39,559 --> 00:37:42,039
perfect time to come back on the under. I watched

741
00:37:42,079 --> 00:37:45,559
the Fever all the time. They're struggling. They lost two

742
00:37:45,599 --> 00:37:48,320
players for the year, Caitlin Clark is still out in

743
00:37:48,360 --> 00:37:51,119
the last five games. These teams are seventh and tenth

744
00:37:51,320 --> 00:37:54,960
offensive rating. The Wings are just a mnemic on offense.

745
00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:57,760
They haven't scored above seventy eight and four straight games.

746
00:37:58,000 --> 00:37:59,719
The last time these two teams played, it was a

747
00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:03,679
one sixty six total with similar lineups, and Becker's is

748
00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:06,000
probable tonight, but dealing with a back injury. I like

749
00:38:06,039 --> 00:38:07,920
the under in the Wings at the fever.

750
00:38:09,079 --> 00:38:10,400
Speaker 3: All right, let's bring on Adam.

751
00:38:10,440 --> 00:38:14,320
Speaker 2: Trigger After Adam, we're gonna break down the Vikings over

752
00:38:14,480 --> 00:38:16,519
under eight and a half on their season win total.

753
00:38:16,559 --> 00:38:18,559
Speaker 3: Adam, I hope you're having.

754
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:21,239
Speaker 2: A great Tuesday here. Well, let's jump right into a

755
00:38:21,280 --> 00:38:24,599
Pirates in the Brewers. You got scheeds for Pittsburgh, Paralza

756
00:38:24,679 --> 00:38:27,760
for Milwaukee. I'm already seeing six and a halfs on

757
00:38:27,920 --> 00:38:30,920
the total here, so we are not expecting a lot

758
00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:31,440
of runs.

759
00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:33,159
Speaker 3: Do you like a side? Do you like a total?

760
00:38:33,199 --> 00:38:34,239
How do you break this game down?

761
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:40,079
Speaker 8: Yeah, I'll give you the almost muted myself, sorry about that.

762
00:38:40,119 --> 00:38:41,920
I'll give you the breakdown here of the game. I

763
00:38:41,960 --> 00:38:44,800
actually I like that at the current price point. Andy,

764
00:38:44,840 --> 00:38:48,079
I do like the Pirates, and I'll explain why I

765
00:38:48,119 --> 00:38:51,119
don't think there's huge edges on the MLV board today,

766
00:38:51,159 --> 00:38:53,400
but I really think when you break this game down

767
00:38:53,440 --> 00:38:56,760
from all angles, there is some value on the pirates.

768
00:38:56,360 --> 00:38:58,000
Speaker 6: With schemes at plus money.

769
00:38:58,039 --> 00:39:00,440
Speaker 8: So I do think people are looking at this game

770
00:39:00,679 --> 00:39:02,920
and sort of looking at the pitching being even I

771
00:39:03,000 --> 00:39:06,880
disagree with that. Paul Skeen's is an absolute generational talent.

772
00:39:07,239 --> 00:39:09,599
And for as good as Freddy Peralta has been this year,

773
00:39:10,039 --> 00:39:12,719
really nice season. He's having his era is year three,

774
00:39:12,840 --> 00:39:16,280
whips one point one four, It's very solid. But when

775
00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:18,960
you put their numbers next to each other, he's not Skeens.

776
00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:21,440
He still will give up some fly balls. And the

777
00:39:21,440 --> 00:39:24,239
biggest thing I've noticed with Peralta is post All Star Break,

778
00:39:24,599 --> 00:39:28,880
command hasn't been quite as good. Twelve walks in nineteen

779
00:39:28,920 --> 00:39:32,679
innings and four starts since the All Star Break. I'm

780
00:39:32,719 --> 00:39:35,119
not saying he's like gonna go in the other direction.

781
00:39:35,719 --> 00:39:39,280
I just think that, like there's more When you're talking

782
00:39:39,320 --> 00:39:42,039
about Paul Skeen's one of the elite pitchers in the

783
00:39:42,079 --> 00:39:45,280
game today and you put Freddy Barlta next to him,

784
00:39:45,639 --> 00:39:48,000
Skeens is still the better option. Now what I think

785
00:39:48,039 --> 00:39:50,599
goes a little bit unnoticed here because of how good

786
00:39:50,679 --> 00:39:53,000
the Brewers have been is the fact that these two

787
00:39:53,039 --> 00:39:56,280
bullpens are very, very equal if you look at their numbers,

788
00:39:56,280 --> 00:39:58,360
if you were to cover Tokyo. Brandon loves to say this,

789
00:39:58,440 --> 00:40:00,519
but it's a great point that he makes on our

790
00:40:00,599 --> 00:40:02,440
daily show. If you were to cover the two names

791
00:40:02,679 --> 00:40:04,719
and put the bullpen numbers right next to each other,

792
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:06,360
they'd be almost identical.

793
00:40:06,679 --> 00:40:07,400
Speaker 6: And that's the thing.

794
00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:10,360
Speaker 8: Even with Benner going to the Yankees, the Pirates kind

795
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:13,719
of have some sneaky good bullpen arms. And the Brewers,

796
00:40:14,360 --> 00:40:17,440
you know, they haven't always needed their bullpen during this run,

797
00:40:17,679 --> 00:40:20,480
but they have log quite a few leverage innings having

798
00:40:20,519 --> 00:40:21,800
won ten games in a row.

799
00:40:21,920 --> 00:40:24,360
Speaker 6: So let's acknowledge what the Brewers have done.

800
00:40:24,440 --> 00:40:27,360
Speaker 8: Eleven game win streak in July, They've rattled off ten

801
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:31,559
straight to start August. It's very impressive. You know, they

802
00:40:31,599 --> 00:40:34,119
are a absolutely one of the top teams in Major

803
00:40:34,199 --> 00:40:36,880
League Baseball. But if we're just looking at today, who's

804
00:40:36,920 --> 00:40:39,480
winning today's game? We got Paul Skins, and the two

805
00:40:39,559 --> 00:40:42,519
bullpens are relatively even. The Pirates have a better WRC

806
00:40:42,639 --> 00:40:46,840
plus against right handed pitching. I just think that getting

807
00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:49,719
schemes at plus one fifteen, plus one twenty is the

808
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:50,360
value here?

809
00:40:50,519 --> 00:40:51,840
Speaker 6: Is it gonna make my client card?

810
00:40:52,039 --> 00:40:54,760
Speaker 8: No, But if we're just talking about what I think

811
00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:57,280
the best move in this game is, it's not trying

812
00:40:57,280 --> 00:40:58,400
to get in that total.

813
00:40:58,440 --> 00:41:00,400
Speaker 6: Six and a half I think is a pretty sharp number.

814
00:41:00,639 --> 00:41:03,400
Speaker 8: So I look for the Pirates plus money and what

815
00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:05,559
I truly believe is more more of a coin flip

816
00:41:05,599 --> 00:41:06,039
type game.

817
00:41:07,159 --> 00:41:09,800
Speaker 2: Well, the strategists asking me for team totals, I like

818
00:41:09,840 --> 00:41:12,320
the Brewers under the under three and a half. I

819
00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:15,280
know they've been red hot. I mean, these numbers from

820
00:41:15,320 --> 00:41:20,199
schemes are are just absolutely insane. He had one game

821
00:41:20,239 --> 00:41:23,440
he gave up four runs to Colorado. That was at Colorado.

822
00:41:23,639 --> 00:41:26,760
I mean, you know, balls flying. But the games around

823
00:41:26,760 --> 00:41:31,840
that zero against Cities, zero against Arizona, zero against Detroit.

824
00:41:32,519 --> 00:41:34,840
Speaker 3: I mean, Adam, He's unbelievable.

825
00:41:35,719 --> 00:41:37,400
Speaker 2: So, yeah, you want to you want a team total

826
00:41:37,440 --> 00:41:40,639
for me Brewers in a very very low scoring game,

827
00:41:40,679 --> 00:41:42,760
and you're right, that just gives the Pirates an even

828
00:41:42,800 --> 00:41:45,599
better chance with this low totals. You know there's only

829
00:41:45,639 --> 00:41:47,639
six runs in the game. Sure, yeah, you might be

830
00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:49,960
four to two or three two something like that.

831
00:41:50,000 --> 00:41:50,800
Speaker 3: Going in late so.

832
00:41:51,360 --> 00:41:54,760
Speaker 2: Good breakdown on that NFL preseason. Any thoughts that you

833
00:41:54,960 --> 00:41:56,679
that you I know you had a good week two

834
00:41:56,719 --> 00:41:59,960
and oh last week, So what'd you see well in preseason?

835
00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:04,199
Speaker 8: I think the only thing I really thought, well, the

836
00:42:04,559 --> 00:42:06,760
reason I won both of those plays, Andy, is I

837
00:42:06,840 --> 00:42:09,000
kind of, you know, the market got to a point

838
00:42:09,000 --> 00:42:11,079
where I felt like I had to play back. So

839
00:42:11,159 --> 00:42:14,159
my two plays for Week one preseason where the Ravens

840
00:42:14,199 --> 00:42:15,119
and the Browns.

841
00:42:14,800 --> 00:42:15,800
Speaker 6: They were both day of.

842
00:42:16,440 --> 00:42:19,639
Speaker 8: And I'll go back to something Gianni was talking about

843
00:42:19,679 --> 00:42:21,440
at the top of the show where he kind of

844
00:42:21,440 --> 00:42:23,960
pointed out, listen, like, the only way to play a

845
00:42:23,960 --> 00:42:27,559
certain game. I'll use the you know, Titans Falcons game

846
00:42:27,559 --> 00:42:30,880
for an example. At this point, the only way to

847
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:33,719
play that game is the Falcons because you've already missed

848
00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:35,400
the three and a half or the three or whatever

849
00:42:35,400 --> 00:42:38,679
the Titans was at the open. The reason I played

850
00:42:38,679 --> 00:42:40,719
the Ravens and the Browns is I just didn't agree

851
00:42:40,719 --> 00:42:42,960
with a six and a half point move in a

852
00:42:43,000 --> 00:42:48,000
preseason game where the game was is largely decided by players.

853
00:42:48,039 --> 00:42:50,400
Speaker 6: That wasn't the reason the number moved in the first place.

854
00:42:50,440 --> 00:42:54,199
Speaker 8: So every preseason move you're going to see is based

855
00:42:54,239 --> 00:42:58,239
on information, typically information as you know, pertaining to how

856
00:42:58,280 --> 00:43:00,159
long starters are going to play.

857
00:43:00,199 --> 00:43:01,920
Speaker 6: These starters don't decide the game.

858
00:43:02,159 --> 00:43:05,000
Speaker 8: And so I see a number like the Titans move

859
00:43:05,079 --> 00:43:06,280
up from three and a half to five and a

860
00:43:06,320 --> 00:43:09,119
half an instant, I instantly assume that they're going to

861
00:43:09,159 --> 00:43:10,400
play their starters for a while.

862
00:43:10,639 --> 00:43:12,840
Speaker 6: Okay, but what does that even mean? Right?

863
00:43:12,920 --> 00:43:16,000
Speaker 8: Like we saw cam Ward for two series last weekend.

864
00:43:16,440 --> 00:43:18,639
I didn't think he was great. First series wasn't great.

865
00:43:18,679 --> 00:43:20,760
They did score a touchdown on the second one, but

866
00:43:20,800 --> 00:43:23,800
that's only because he basically threw a pick that was dropped.

867
00:43:24,079 --> 00:43:27,480
So again, does it how much is that worth?

868
00:43:27,559 --> 00:43:27,719
Speaker 6: Right?

869
00:43:27,800 --> 00:43:29,679
Speaker 8: Like, if they play a little bit longer, is it

870
00:43:29,719 --> 00:43:32,039
even worth anything? I think you have to ask yourself

871
00:43:32,039 --> 00:43:35,480
that the Falcons showed nothing, They didn't play any of

872
00:43:35,519 --> 00:43:38,679
their starters, and their game got cut short. So you know,

873
00:43:39,159 --> 00:43:41,480
maybe they play a little bit longer, maybe they don't,

874
00:43:41,599 --> 00:43:43,360
But can you move something two points?

875
00:43:43,400 --> 00:43:43,840
Speaker 6: Three points?

876
00:43:43,880 --> 00:43:46,199
Speaker 8: And so that was my strategy week one, played against

877
00:43:46,239 --> 00:43:48,559
the moves with the move with the Browns and the Ravens,

878
00:43:48,599 --> 00:43:49,239
and it worked out.

879
00:43:49,480 --> 00:43:52,360
Speaker 6: It's likely what I'll look to do here in week two.

880
00:43:52,840 --> 00:43:56,239
Speaker 8: I haven't played anything yet, because Andy, that takes time

881
00:43:56,280 --> 00:43:57,239
to materialize.

882
00:43:57,440 --> 00:43:59,719
Speaker 6: It's all about how far the steam.

883
00:44:00,000 --> 00:44:01,599
Speaker 8: And my gut says, we're not going to see the

884
00:44:01,599 --> 00:44:04,159
spots like we did week one because I think the uh,

885
00:44:04,440 --> 00:44:06,800
you know, the steam chasers in week one kind of

886
00:44:06,800 --> 00:44:09,119
got crushed. So I don't think we'll see moves like

887
00:44:09,159 --> 00:44:11,000
we did last week. So maybe I'll have nothing, but

888
00:44:11,079 --> 00:44:13,800
I'll certainly be looking for plays.

889
00:44:13,239 --> 00:44:13,639
Speaker 3: All right.

890
00:44:13,719 --> 00:44:17,199
Speaker 2: I like, yeah, your strategy did really well. Your strategy

891
00:44:17,239 --> 00:44:20,159
did really really well across the board on that. So

892
00:44:20,800 --> 00:44:22,280
Adam you came on last second.

893
00:44:22,280 --> 00:44:24,559
Speaker 3: Thank you so much. It's five dollars Tuesday. Tell rom

894
00:44:24,639 --> 00:44:25,159
what you have out.

895
00:44:26,440 --> 00:44:28,760
Speaker 8: Yeah, I got a baseball play four percenter hit my

896
00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:31,159
five percent MLB play last night. I've been on a

897
00:44:31,199 --> 00:44:34,960
really good run fourteen and three the last week. If

898
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:37,960
I'm going back to June first, uh one on one

899
00:44:38,039 --> 00:44:40,199
sixty eight and three, that's fifty nine point eight percent

900
00:44:40,440 --> 00:44:42,559
plus seventy three point six eight units.

901
00:44:43,039 --> 00:44:44,320
Speaker 6: That number sounds big.

902
00:44:44,719 --> 00:44:47,599
Speaker 8: But you know, April and May were down for me, Andy,

903
00:44:47,679 --> 00:44:49,480
so you know, I kind of just you kind of

904
00:44:49,519 --> 00:44:52,039
got to ride out the peaks in the valleys a

905
00:44:52,119 --> 00:44:55,239
couple April and May didn't go as well. June and

906
00:44:55,320 --> 00:44:57,599
July were great. We're off to a great start in August.

907
00:44:58,199 --> 00:45:00,000
Just try to, you know, try to win again today.

908
00:45:00,079 --> 00:45:02,400
And I've got a baseball play that I really like

909
00:45:02,440 --> 00:45:05,639
going for. I think five straight MLB winners off of

910
00:45:05,639 --> 00:45:07,639
the five percent win with the Rays last night, so

911
00:45:08,199 --> 00:45:10,119
a five I like. And it's only five dollars, So,

912
00:45:10,679 --> 00:45:12,519
I mean, I could think of worse ways to spend

913
00:45:12,519 --> 00:45:13,199
five bucks.

914
00:45:13,000 --> 00:45:17,440
Speaker 2: Sandy, right, I'll probably I'll probably find one and spend

915
00:45:17,519 --> 00:45:21,639
five dollars on something stupid later today. So all right,

916
00:45:21,719 --> 00:45:24,920
Adam Trigger, everybody go grab that five dollars play in MLB.

917
00:45:25,079 --> 00:45:28,199
Thank you so much for joining us and continued success.

918
00:45:28,239 --> 00:45:29,440
Let's have a big August.

919
00:45:29,199 --> 00:45:32,639
Speaker 6: Man, same to you. Thanks for having.

920
00:45:32,360 --> 00:45:36,920
Speaker 2: Me absolutely again last time, guys, five dollars Tuesday.

921
00:45:37,920 --> 00:45:39,239
Speaker 3: It's it's the no brainer.

922
00:45:39,320 --> 00:45:41,119
Speaker 2: These plays that are normal price, so but these are

923
00:45:41,159 --> 00:45:43,760
eighty percent off my play in particulars for TEENA White

924
00:45:43,760 --> 00:45:44,599
Contender series.

925
00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:46,880
Speaker 3: We're four and zero in our last four.

926
00:45:46,880 --> 00:45:49,760
Speaker 2: MMA plays and Contender series has been a big, big

927
00:45:49,800 --> 00:45:51,559
part of building our bank rolls over the years, and

928
00:45:51,559 --> 00:45:53,760
we only get ten weeks of it. So don't sit

929
00:45:53,800 --> 00:45:55,679
this one out five dollars best bet as life in

930
00:45:55,760 --> 00:45:56,599
Contender series.

931
00:45:56,760 --> 00:45:57,239
Speaker 4: You go to the.

932
00:45:57,199 --> 00:45:59,239
Speaker 3: Website, Every Haiti caap er has one up.

933
00:45:59,280 --> 00:46:01,880
Speaker 2: So you want mL We got plenty of MLB. You

934
00:46:01,920 --> 00:46:05,800
want NFL. I'm sure there's NFL futures up. You want WNBA,

935
00:46:05,880 --> 00:46:07,840
I'm sure we got those as well. So take a

936
00:46:07,880 --> 00:46:10,440
picket at your favorite handicapper. You want to try somebody new,

937
00:46:10,559 --> 00:46:12,119
today is the day to do it. Get as many

938
00:46:12,119 --> 00:46:15,000
as you want, but always bet responsible. Make sure we

939
00:46:15,000 --> 00:46:17,800
don't have too much of our bank roll on these plays.

940
00:46:18,079 --> 00:46:20,639
All right, let's bring in Dan. Let's do the Vikings here.

941
00:46:21,079 --> 00:46:24,480
Tough one eat and a half. Tough one here, Dan?

942
00:46:26,039 --> 00:46:29,119
Or is it fourteen and three last year?

943
00:46:29,800 --> 00:46:32,480
Speaker 3: I don't know. Can you take anything away from that?

944
00:46:32,639 --> 00:46:35,840
Speaker 2: You know, we're going to a quarterback who really hasn't played.

945
00:46:35,880 --> 00:46:38,159
I'll go over the offseason moves and there are a

946
00:46:38,360 --> 00:46:39,800
ton of them.

947
00:46:39,880 --> 00:46:41,920
Speaker 3: So Darnold was out. JJ McCarthy is in.

948
00:46:42,400 --> 00:46:45,639
Speaker 2: They really beefed up their tackles, their defensive tackles mean,

949
00:46:45,719 --> 00:46:51,679
Jonathan Allen Hargrave is in. They rated my colts offensive line.

950
00:46:52,000 --> 00:46:56,599
Speaker 3: They got two guys Ryan Kelly and have fun with

951
00:46:56,639 --> 00:46:58,280
the health of Ryan Kelly. I'll leave it at that.

952
00:46:59,199 --> 00:47:01,960
Speaker 2: They added a lot to their secondary and CBS they

953
00:47:02,000 --> 00:47:04,960
needed to, they lost some. They re signed Aaron Jones,

954
00:47:04,960 --> 00:47:06,320
and I cant to tell you I love the addition

955
00:47:06,360 --> 00:47:09,079
to Jordan Mason. I think Jordan Mason it would be

956
00:47:09,119 --> 00:47:12,760
a starter on most teams, Like he was really good

957
00:47:12,800 --> 00:47:14,440
when he got run last year.

958
00:47:14,480 --> 00:47:16,119
Speaker 3: So depth their secondary.

959
00:47:16,159 --> 00:47:18,920
Speaker 2: PFF has their running backs rated eleventh, if that tells

960
00:47:18,920 --> 00:47:23,559
you anything, sixth with wide receivers, seventh, in offensive line, sixteenth,

961
00:47:23,599 --> 00:47:28,159
defensive line, tenth with linebackers twenty seventh with the secondary.

962
00:47:28,519 --> 00:47:30,400
What's your take on the vikings here before we do

963
00:47:30,440 --> 00:47:31,039
that schedule?

964
00:47:32,039 --> 00:47:34,519
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, and the schedule is a huge part

965
00:47:34,559 --> 00:47:37,199
of it because they have it's a it's not a

966
00:47:38,320 --> 00:47:41,079
it's not a horribly difficult schedule, but it's one of

967
00:47:41,079 --> 00:47:45,079
the weirdest schedules in the NFL. They have this really

968
00:47:45,079 --> 00:47:47,079
weird stretch to start the year. They have two games

969
00:47:47,079 --> 00:47:49,360
that they play in London. So we'll get into that

970
00:47:49,400 --> 00:47:53,440
in just a second. This really comes down to, you know,

971
00:47:53,760 --> 00:47:57,599
is JJ McCarthy the guy and coaching staff that brings

972
00:47:57,639 --> 00:48:00,880
back Hell with a lot of continuity. Bod defensive offense

973
00:48:01,000 --> 00:48:03,199
coordinator back, and you have the coach of the year.

974
00:48:03,800 --> 00:48:07,239
You know who am I to say those three guys

975
00:48:07,719 --> 00:48:11,639
and this front office are incorrect in thinking JJ McCarthy

976
00:48:11,679 --> 00:48:14,239
deserves the keys to the castle. You know, on the

977
00:48:14,320 --> 00:48:17,639
outside looking in, I would say, I don't really think

978
00:48:17,679 --> 00:48:19,159
that he's the guy. But this is a team who

979
00:48:19,199 --> 00:48:22,320
traded up for him, who said we don't want Donald.

980
00:48:22,480 --> 00:48:24,760
You know, before that it was hey, well let's move on,

981
00:48:25,440 --> 00:48:28,280
you know, from from from Kirk Cousins as well.

982
00:48:29,079 --> 00:48:31,119
Speaker 6: So for me, this is a.

983
00:48:31,119 --> 00:48:33,639
Speaker 1: Team that just goes over this number every single year.

984
00:48:33,880 --> 00:48:34,079
Speaker 7: Right.

985
00:48:34,920 --> 00:48:38,840
Speaker 1: You mentioned last year they were lined at seven wins

986
00:48:39,039 --> 00:48:41,400
before the season last year, largely part too, because it

987
00:48:41,440 --> 00:48:43,920
was Sam Darnold under center, right, So how could we

988
00:48:44,000 --> 00:48:45,480
like this team over Andy?

989
00:48:45,519 --> 00:48:46,440
Speaker 4: They went over.

990
00:48:46,280 --> 00:48:50,480
Speaker 1: That by seven wins. They got fourteen wins last year.

991
00:48:50,519 --> 00:48:52,679
Do you understand how hard it is to beat a

992
00:48:52,719 --> 00:48:57,320
market expectation by seven wins, either under or over like

993
00:48:57,400 --> 00:49:02,480
something seismically has to happen. And what's seismically happened is

994
00:49:02,519 --> 00:49:04,000
that Kevin O'Connell.

995
00:49:04,039 --> 00:49:05,199
Speaker 7: For all the people who talk.

996
00:49:05,079 --> 00:49:08,840
Speaker 1: About quarterback whisperers around the NFL, this is a guy

997
00:49:08,880 --> 00:49:11,920
who gets the absolute must most from who is ever

998
00:49:12,119 --> 00:49:14,840
under center? Yes, Sam Darnold turned back into a pumpkin,

999
00:49:15,079 --> 00:49:17,880
but the fact that he stayed that off the entire year,

1000
00:49:18,519 --> 00:49:22,000
there's a lot to be gleaned from that. So nine

1001
00:49:22,039 --> 00:49:24,079
and a half is what I would make this number. Andy,

1002
00:49:24,159 --> 00:49:26,360
you know what I mean. I hate again. You know,

1003
00:49:26,599 --> 00:49:28,360
the people know that I love my overs. But for

1004
00:49:28,440 --> 00:49:30,679
what it's worth, I think the Bears are going to be,

1005
00:49:30,800 --> 00:49:33,639
you know, a team who's not going to be going

1006
00:49:33,719 --> 00:49:37,559
over expectations. I think the Lions are gonna heavily regress

1007
00:49:37,599 --> 00:49:39,960
this season, and I think it's a two team race

1008
00:49:40,039 --> 00:49:43,159
between this team and the Packers. So there has to

1009
00:49:43,199 --> 00:49:45,440
be teams that I like over in this division. If

1010
00:49:45,480 --> 00:49:48,320
there's teams that I like under, you know, I'm bullish

1011
00:49:48,320 --> 00:49:51,360
on the Packers. I'm pretty bullish here on the Vikings

1012
00:49:51,360 --> 00:49:54,280
as well. But Andy, the part that gives me pause

1013
00:49:54,320 --> 00:49:58,840
and why I wouldn't bet this is the schedule is bizarre.

1014
00:50:00,320 --> 00:50:02,159
You know, you can give a little bit more thoughts

1015
00:50:02,159 --> 00:50:04,559
on this, but the first half of the season, you

1016
00:50:04,639 --> 00:50:07,880
have one true road game, but you also have two

1017
00:50:07,960 --> 00:50:10,719
games sprinkled in that are going to be played in London,

1018
00:50:10,880 --> 00:50:13,400
and they stay out in London. So if anything, that's

1019
00:50:13,440 --> 00:50:16,559
probably a positive that you stay out there. Maybe a

1020
00:50:16,559 --> 00:50:19,360
negative Game one, a positive in Game two. But then

1021
00:50:19,440 --> 00:50:23,400
the second half of the season only three home games

1022
00:50:23,719 --> 00:50:27,599
from the stretch of the end of October through Christmas,

1023
00:50:27,760 --> 00:50:31,280
and those three home games andy are Ravens and Commanders

1024
00:50:31,360 --> 00:50:33,360
or two of them, and then you have the Bears,

1025
00:50:33,840 --> 00:50:36,480
you know which, Again in division, you you never really know.

1026
00:50:36,920 --> 00:50:39,559
The schedule is so strange to me, which is why

1027
00:50:39,599 --> 00:50:42,880
I couldn't make this bet, even though everything in my

1028
00:50:43,079 --> 00:50:45,679
being says this is a no brainer over.

1029
00:50:46,480 --> 00:50:50,679
Speaker 2: Mm okay, all right, just to put it in perspective,

1030
00:50:50,760 --> 00:50:54,480
a seven win difference is if the Browns win twelve

1031
00:50:54,599 --> 00:50:55,800
or thirteen games.

1032
00:50:55,920 --> 00:50:59,199
Speaker 3: Just exactly picture that exactly.

1033
00:51:00,400 --> 00:51:04,719
Speaker 2: Here's their schedule at Bears, Falcons, Bengals, overseas Browns. We

1034
00:51:04,760 --> 00:51:07,199
got those two overseas games, and then the bye week.

1035
00:51:07,360 --> 00:51:09,800
Here's what I like about the bye week. The rookie

1036
00:51:09,840 --> 00:51:12,599
I'm calling him a rookie, the rookie quarterback gets an

1037
00:51:12,639 --> 00:51:16,280
extra week to get with the coaching with the coaching staff.

1038
00:51:16,320 --> 00:51:19,559
I think that's a good early bye week. But then yikes,

1039
00:51:20,360 --> 00:51:24,639
they come out Eagles at Chargers at Lions, Ravens. That's

1040
00:51:24,960 --> 00:51:26,119
that's out of your bye week.

1041
00:51:26,599 --> 00:51:27,000
Speaker 3: Brutal.

1042
00:51:27,079 --> 00:51:29,840
Speaker 2: Then we got Bears at Packers at Seahawks, Commanders at

1043
00:51:29,840 --> 00:51:33,719
Cowboys at Giant Lane Packers. I am with you, I

1044
00:51:33,760 --> 00:51:37,000
can't bet this. It's an ever so slight lean to

1045
00:51:37,079 --> 00:51:40,719
the under. Even though I do trust the coaching staff,

1046
00:51:40,760 --> 00:51:43,679
I trust the weapons that they have. But if McCarthy

1047
00:51:43,719 --> 00:51:46,079
turns out to be not the guy, this team is

1048
00:51:46,119 --> 00:51:50,719
in a world of hurt. They're big, big trouble. So

1049
00:51:51,400 --> 00:51:54,639
I just it's a very, very slight lean to the under.

1050
00:51:54,679 --> 00:51:57,280
But this is one of the most unplayable.

1051
00:51:58,159 --> 00:51:59,320
Speaker 3: Agree just because.

1052
00:51:59,239 --> 00:52:02,320
Speaker 1: There's because i'm because it really does hinge on, it

1053
00:52:02,360 --> 00:52:04,599
really does hinge on what happens with the quarterback. But

1054
00:52:04,639 --> 00:52:07,159
I guess the reason why that ended up with me

1055
00:52:07,480 --> 00:52:11,840
leaning towards the over pretty heavily is simply because Kevin

1056
00:52:11,840 --> 00:52:14,639
O'Connell has had a question market quarterback pretty much every

1057
00:52:14,679 --> 00:52:16,840
single season, and what does he do every single season?

1058
00:52:16,840 --> 00:52:18,119
Speaker 6: He exceeds the expectation.

1059
00:52:18,360 --> 00:52:22,639
Speaker 1: So I think Kevin O'Connell is the quarterback whisperer in

1060
00:52:22,719 --> 00:52:23,360
the NFL.

1061
00:52:23,840 --> 00:52:26,199
Speaker 7: And again with a team who has shown.

1062
00:52:26,000 --> 00:52:30,960
Speaker 1: Time and time again they blow past market expectations. You know,

1063
00:52:32,000 --> 00:52:34,440
who am I to doubt this front office and coaching staff.

1064
00:52:34,480 --> 00:52:34,960
Speaker 3: I'm with you.

1065
00:52:35,400 --> 00:52:38,280
Speaker 1: I don't like the hype around JJ McCarthy. I don't

1066
00:52:38,320 --> 00:52:40,000
see it. I didn't think he was all that great.

1067
00:52:40,239 --> 00:52:45,559
They hid JJ McCarthy in Michigan to win a national championship.

1068
00:52:45,119 --> 00:52:45,719
Speaker 6: You know what I mean.

1069
00:52:45,719 --> 00:52:49,079
Speaker 1: They backed it up on a solid running game and

1070
00:52:49,119 --> 00:52:51,719
you know, really picking the spots to let him shine.

1071
00:52:52,559 --> 00:52:56,559
So I don't like the hype around McCarthy. But a

1072
00:52:56,639 --> 00:52:59,440
team and an a front office and a head coach

1073
00:52:59,519 --> 00:53:01,960
and a coaching staff that brings back all this continuity.

1074
00:53:02,000 --> 00:53:04,480
If they think JJ McCarthy is the guy, I'm not

1075
00:53:04,480 --> 00:53:07,519
gonna armchair quarterback and act like I know better than them.

1076
00:53:07,599 --> 00:53:10,559
But I'm kind of with you. The the little lynchpin

1077
00:53:10,679 --> 00:53:12,239
and all of it is what do you get out

1078
00:53:12,280 --> 00:53:12,639
of J. J.

1079
00:53:12,760 --> 00:53:14,840
Speaker 6: McCarthy. And that's why you can't bet this one.

1080
00:53:15,159 --> 00:53:16,719
Speaker 3: It's unbettable. It's unbettable.

1081
00:53:17,079 --> 00:53:21,039
Speaker 2: Uh Vullbecks asked Justin Jefferson or Jamar who you taking

1082
00:53:21,039 --> 00:53:25,039
the fantasy? That's an easy one, Jamar Chase. Yeah, those

1083
00:53:25,480 --> 00:53:27,480
those games are gonna be from the Bengals are just

1084
00:53:27,519 --> 00:53:31,119
gonna be shooting shootouts. Their defense is awful. Uh, he's

1085
00:53:31,159 --> 00:53:33,920
got the he's got the connection. It's Jamar Chap I mean,

1086
00:53:33,920 --> 00:53:36,679
I think Jamar is like the number one overall fantasy pick.

1087
00:53:36,800 --> 00:53:39,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, And every draft that I've done, I'm in five

1088
00:53:39,880 --> 00:53:42,960
different fantasy leagues. I've drafted in three of them, Jamar

1089
00:53:43,039 --> 00:53:44,960
Chase has the been the one oh one and all

1090
00:53:45,000 --> 00:53:47,559
of them. And let's be real, that never shakes out

1091
00:53:47,599 --> 00:53:49,599
the way that it really should. But if you're asking

1092
00:53:49,639 --> 00:53:53,400
me any wide receiver that you're taking in the first round, uh,

1093
00:53:53,480 --> 00:53:56,280
you know, if Jamar Chase is there, Jamar Chase is

1094
00:53:56,320 --> 00:53:58,320
the no brainer one to do it. Like you typically

1095
00:53:58,360 --> 00:54:01,320
don't see the wide receiver one happen in back to

1096
00:54:01,440 --> 00:54:04,960
back years. But really, if you look at that Bengals defense,

1097
00:54:05,000 --> 00:54:07,920
they're gonna be passing. Even when they have leads, they pass.

1098
00:54:08,039 --> 00:54:11,119
So I think the no brainer, you know, when you're

1099
00:54:11,199 --> 00:54:12,960
when you're at that one spoder towards the top of

1100
00:54:13,000 --> 00:54:15,920
the draft, get Jamar Chase. Then when the quarterbacks start

1101
00:54:15,960 --> 00:54:19,320
going stacking with Joe Burrow, that's gonna be that's gonna

1102
00:54:19,360 --> 00:54:21,679
be the stack of all stacks, especially if you have

1103
00:54:21,679 --> 00:54:23,119
a six point quarterback league.

1104
00:54:23,119 --> 00:54:24,000
Speaker 7: So yeah, I.

1105
00:54:24,199 --> 00:54:27,360
Speaker 1: Would be There's no one that I would really make

1106
00:54:27,400 --> 00:54:30,079
the case for over Jamar Chase. He's proven it time

1107
00:54:30,079 --> 00:54:31,920
and time again, and it's gonna be a defense that

1108
00:54:32,000 --> 00:54:33,000
requires passing.

1109
00:54:34,000 --> 00:54:36,960
Speaker 2: Love it, love it all right, Dan, thanks for joining us. Yeah,

1110
00:54:37,280 --> 00:54:42,760
not too much action on the Vikings season, so all right, guys,

1111
00:54:42,800 --> 00:54:45,079
thanks so much for joining us. Outside of the five

1112
00:54:45,119 --> 00:54:48,400
dollars play, there is a UFC and pfil L pack

1113
00:54:48,480 --> 00:54:50,320
that's up with two five percent plays.

1114
00:54:50,360 --> 00:54:50,679
Speaker 3: That's right.

1115
00:54:50,719 --> 00:54:54,119
Speaker 2: We have not one, not two plays, but two of

1116
00:54:54,119 --> 00:54:55,199
them are five percent plays.

1117
00:54:55,199 --> 00:54:57,119
Speaker 3: So I'll talk more about that tomorrow because today is

1118
00:54:57,159 --> 00:54:58,079
all about five dollars.

1119
00:54:58,440 --> 00:55:00,480
Speaker 2: All right, guys, thanks so much for joining us. Hit

1120
00:55:00,519 --> 00:55:02,760
that like button, Please hit that like button. We've got

1121
00:55:03,039 --> 00:55:05,000
tons of people in are watch and not enough likes

1122
00:55:05,239 --> 00:55:07,360
really helps us out. Leave us a comment, tell us

1123
00:55:07,440 --> 00:55:09,360
you like today, give us your thoughts on the Vikings

1124
00:55:09,760 --> 00:55:11,679
looks like look said, we had a lot of strong

1125
00:55:11,719 --> 00:55:14,119
opinions on JJ McCarthy in here, so let us know

1126
00:55:14,159 --> 00:55:15,760
in the comment section what you think.

1127
00:55:15,800 --> 00:55:18,679
Speaker 3: I'm interested. All right, thanks so much for joining us. Guys.

1128
00:55:18,880 --> 00:55:20,840
Speaker 2: We will be live on the Winning in the Shadows

1129
00:55:20,880 --> 00:55:24,039
YouTube channel watching danawit Contender series tonight, so we want

1130
00:55:24,079 --> 00:55:26,000
to check that out. Thanks so much for joining us,

1131
00:55:26,000 --> 00:55:27,639
good luck on all your bets, and take care