Speaker 1: Shoot one your live.
Speaker 2: Welcome to the best sports betting show on the planet.
This is wager Talk Today. I am your host, Andy Lang.
Speaker 3: It is five dollars Tuesday.
Speaker 2: We're talking NFL futures, We're talking Danaway Contender Series, We're
talking the latest Steamer point uh Steam Report, NFL preseason,
MLB matchups. We have plenty to cover, so let's get
it right into it.
Speaker 3: You guys know what to do.
Speaker 2: Hit that like button and let's get started with Gianni
and we'll talk about how busy you're not busy the
morning is with the the hands are rubbing, the hands
are rubbing.
Speaker 3: Is that is that a side of busy?
Speaker 4: Busy brother? Busy day?
Speaker 2: All right, let's uh, let's start with your your choice
of sport NFL, preseason, MLB, w NBA.
Speaker 3: What do you see an action on it?
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, we'll talk real quickly on the preseason.
Speaker 5: Just because these lines have already moved so significantly that
it makes it easy for betters.
Speaker 4: I mean again, I talked about it last week.
Speaker 5: Once the line moves three four, five, six points, the
only question is do you now take the other side
because you can no longer take that that that side,
that moved, even if it wins is you're just not
placing a great bet. It's like buying bitcoin now at
one hundred and twenty one thousand. Sure it could get
to one hundred and fifty, it could get the two
hundred and a while, but arguably you're buying at the top,
you know, and if if things go bad, you're in
a tough spot if it drops twenty percent, thirty percent.
But if you're buying at a good price, you don't
have those issues. But here's some of the bigger moves
that are for sure legit, Like New England New England
got They took the one and a half on New
England and then laid up the one and a half
on New England. So New England over Minnesota is legit.
Same thing with Philadelphia, Philadelphia over Cleveland minus one and
a half and minus two.
Speaker 4: What else?
Speaker 5: The Giants, the Giants over the Jets. The Giants got
bet as an underdounk. Then they laid the one and
a half in two on the Giants, which is why
we're looking at three. Chargers didn't take a lot of
money because they opened it two and a half, so
it got hit till it got the three. Since then,
it's been the public that's driving that line through that
key number. And last but not least, Yeah, Denver opened
above the key of three and that's just been bet
up to minus six. So it's all favorites. It's all
those short numbers. Now the totals, as you can see,
they've come out a little bit higher this week's we're
seeing a lot of thirty eight and a half. We're
seeing a lot of thirty nine and a half. So
you're not seeing that that big.
Speaker 4: Move towards the over. I mean, that's pretty much where
they're all going.
Speaker 5: Maybe a point point and a half, two points, but
you're not seeing those three, four or five point line movements.
It'll be interesting when game day gets here if they'll
continue to move up like perfect examples Philadelphia, Cleveland open
thirty six and a half, thirty seven more or less.
Now you're sitting at forty. The question is do you
start to see any kind of resistance, Like if it
gets to forty and a half, do you start seeing
some buyback Because again, after all that scoring in preseason,
rest assured the premium is going to be attached on
these totals, and if they continue skyrocketing upwards. The only
bet you could possibly make is be selective and try
to find some unders that offer.
Speaker 4: You some value.
Speaker 5: Because of the correction, the over correction and the narrative
points points points, points points, you got to go counter
counter narrative if you're trading markets.
Speaker 2: A couple of teams I have my eyes on in
the team totals market Indianapolis. There they're going to be
playing their their quarterbacks. I mean, Richardson's already banged up,
but you know, Daniel Jones is trying to fight the
show that he can do what he does.
Speaker 3: And Green Bay look like they could could have cared less.
I like that one.
Speaker 2: In Miami, they've got quality backups and Detroit has not
looked good in the preseason. And I think the Cats
out of the bag on my unchargers like they're kind
of public now because they like played so well in
the first couple of games. But if Trey Lance is
going to keep getting all those reps, I will be
looking at their team total over for sure. Those are
teams I think I know what to expect come from preseason,
and that's a lot of it. Isn't that isn't it?
What are we going to what are we getting, what
to expect what quarterbacks.
Speaker 5: What you have to understand is when all the talk,
we've only seen one week of games, so it's kind
of like wing week week one of the regular season.
Everybody's overreacting the sixty minutes of football and they're already
drawing conclusions off of sixty minutes of football.
Speaker 4: For the entire season.
Speaker 5: And that's why I think we too offers you a
ton of value in the regular season and ultimately in
preseason because you only have one game to go by,
So the recency bias is going to be greater than
ever before, and we're seeing that with these totals. They're
already jacked up higher than they should be. So the books,
to protect themselves, are going to add a point, let's say,
to the total should be thirty seven. They're gonna bring
it out of thirty eight thirty eight and a half.
Sharp still think there's some value on the over, or
they think the public's going to go over, so let's
get out ahead of the market. They go over thirty
eight and a half. Now a sudden, the line goes
up to forty. The public starts betting. Come game day,
goes up.
Speaker 4: To forty one, forty one and a half.
Speaker 5: You had an opener of thirty eight, now up to
forty one and a half. Like at that point, the
only question is do I go under? Because all the
value has been extracted. You've gone through thirty eight, thirty nine,
forty forty one, So the question is do I now
go under? You already know the premium was attached that
this total should probably be about thirty seven. So again
you get a lot of great bets the place, but
you got to just be very selective. And I think
that's the key to week two. Take advantage of the
overreaction because again we don't have enough data to justify
a lot of the correction. You have one week of
games and that ultimately should give you some good spots
to put some money down on.
Speaker 2: Oh man, yep, the overreaction after one week. Hey, sometimes
I'm sometimes I'm guilty of it too.
Speaker 3: Sometimes we have.
Speaker 5: To answer Justin's question. Great question, brother, great question. I've
already released three yesterday. I think I sent out the
third week one college football, So for that first Saturday,
that package is already off. There's already three football bets
in there in week one, you just can't wait. I
talked about it with the NFL. If you're waiting until
Sunday of Week one to bet NFL and all your
bets are going in that day, unless you're betting one
or two bets, you're probably not going to be profitable
because all the value has been extracted. The sharpest betters
in the world had months to dig into these numbers
like they're gonna be as efficient as you're going to
get early, even though it's early in the season. Because again,
and please keep this in mind, as efficient and sharp
as the NFL betting market is, the average game ends
ten points greater than the points spread.
Speaker 4: Let me repeat that.
Speaker 5: Even though we always talk about look how awesome, look
how good these odds makers are, when they bring out
teammate is three and the game ends teammate winning by three,
you know, twenty to seventeen, we're like, wow, they pegged it.
They nailed it right on. The number was exactly what
it ended at. Truth of the matter is, even in
the NFL, the average final score ends ten points off
of what the closing line is. So even though the
closing line is that efficient, it's still on average ten
points off of what the game ends. So again, the
sportsbook's not trying to predict an outcome. They're simply trying
to limit their risk and put themselves in a position
where they don't need the root for any particular team.
So yeah, be real cautious with that. Again, with these
big line moves in preseason football, a ton of value,
but you got to get out early. And again with
Week one college football, Week one NFL regular season, you
got to get out ahead of some of these.
Speaker 4: Come game day, it's going to be tough to find value.
Speaker 2: Well, let's move to baseball real quick, and then I
promise talk Dana White Contender Series. I know people were asking,
they've been asking about it already, which Jeohnny. A couple
of years ago, if you would have told me we
would be needing to talk about Contender Series, I wouldn't
have believed you.
Speaker 3: But we need to do it. So let's talk baseball
here real quick.
Speaker 2: You see in any significant line moves, I already got
six and a half's popping up on Pittsburg and Philly.
Speaker 5: We got that load on that under and remember yesterday
that the Steam did well. But you got to pay
attention to where these numbers are I think that won total?
Like I even mentioned that, that's what was frazy. I said,
we went over eight. Now it's eight and a half
or nine, but we stopped at eight and it ended
seven to one. Like if you went over eight and
a half, you took a bad number. There was no
reason to do that. Here's what we got so farst
forward today and prior to Game one yesterday we steamed Atlanta.
Speaker 4: Forgive me Arizona.
Speaker 5: Arizona to win the series against Texas plus one ninety five,
so almost two to one. They lost Game one. They
were winning that game, but they ended up losing by
one run. Keep in mind they have Arizona plus one
ninety five for the series. A couple bets for today
nine oh four over eight Atlanta, Milwaukee up to minus
one ten nine oh four, New York Mets minus one
thirty ninety eleven, Seattle minus one fifty minus one sixty
nine to seventeen, Boston plus one oh five and under
eight and a half up to minus one oh five
nine nineteen Tampa Bay even money and over nine nine
and a half nine nine twenty five over eight and
a half and over nine at even money Washington Kansas
City and last but not least nine twenty two Cubs
and Toronto over eight and a half, eight and a
half at minus one twenty five. So that's some of
the baseball action so far. Early, early, but as you
can see, they're already getting down.
Speaker 3: All right.
Speaker 2: It's Dana White Contender Series twenty twenty five, Week one,
Gianny and I, this is right in our wheelhouse. This
is one of our favorite ten week stretches. Let's talk
about some of these fights here. What any anything jump
off the page here. I've got some pretty good thoughts.
I like a lot of unders on this card.
Speaker 3: What do you think?
Speaker 6: Great?
Speaker 4: Great read immediately, because what are we looking at?
Speaker 5: Three of the five fights are two and a half
are lined at two and a half. You're usually looking
at one and a half, especially when you get into
the higher weight classes like here, three of the fights
are at middleweight, and yet we're looking at two and
a half when we know the bias on Contender.
Speaker 4: Series is towards the under.
Speaker 5: You can't forget that because Dana wants to see finishes.
You want to make the roster. You got to impress,
so they'll take a little more risks because of that
there's a lot of bias towards the under But here's
what you can't forget that on average, like they're not
finishing a lot higher rate than they are in the UFC,
meaning you expect it to be a little bit higher than,
you know, fifty to fifty like we see in the
UFC fifty percent decisions, fifty percent finishes. But even last
year only sixty three percent the fights ended and finished
the year prior fifty five percent, two years before that
fifty two percent, so it's not like they're in.
Speaker 4: That seventy percent or higher finish rate.
Speaker 5: Keep that in mind, and also keep in mind favorites
outperformed last year going into twenty At the end of
twenty twenty three, the underdogs did well. Favorites only won
fifty five percent of the fights, so that was a
dog year. So last year we expected the market to
bounce back and the favors to do better. That's exactly
what they did. In fact, going into final week last year,
favorites were eighty percent. Eighty percent of favorites had won
going in the week ten, and then the dogs went
four and one, so when the season ended, favorites still
won seventy three percent of their fights. Look for those
favorites to be a little bit overvalued, at least the
first few weeks of the season, and that's what it
looked like because if you look at the opening lines,
every single line dropped from the opener, except for toy Miller,
who opened my mind one fifty got steamed up the
minus two thirty within ten minutes, then came back down
and since then he's near that two to one favorite.
Speaker 4: Every other line got steamed towards the dog.
Speaker 5: So they were a little bit overvalued, and that's what
we expected the market to do, and that's what they're
doing so far, real quickly. Two fighters that jumped off
the page at me, suskas Kaiev, I'll have to get
that pronunciation during the meeting over Taha. Seven and a
half inch reach advantage almost five inches, just his kicks
to an advantage.
Speaker 4: The kid's a stud.
Speaker 5: He's got the wrestling background as well. This is a
chalky chalky favorite, but I think it's warranted and a live.
Speaker 4: Dog for you. Again, this is early. Please don't paint
me in a corner.
Speaker 5: I could be opposite these by the time the fight starts,
because I didn't release any premiums get two subscribers. I'm
still working on it. I still have a production meeting
where I get a lot of good information and even
get to see these fighters before the show starts. But
I do think Bradley Da Silva offers up some value
at plus money. Most of the value has been extracted
because Mangos opened minus four hundred, got that down to
minus three hundred. Now it's about minus one fifty favorite,
so the price really changed on Mangos.
Speaker 4: But I thought the Silva.
Speaker 5: At plus money offered some value there for sure. If
he could, if he could get out of the first round,
I think he's live.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, we got e were versus Paan for off.
I don't think that fight goes the distance. I actually
liked the under one and a half plus one seventy five.
Panfrov will make that a firefight. Ewart's got power ewert
minus two thirty.
Speaker 3: I wouldn't.
Speaker 2: I wouldn't lay minus two thirty because, like I said,
Panfrof is going to turn that into an absolute brawl
Mangos and Da Silva.
Speaker 3: I actually like Mangos.
Speaker 2: I love this series that he comes out of the
Heck series those Australian games.
Speaker 6: Yeah, and the titles and a title.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's why I was on Mangos. It's the line
scare in me.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, you're right about Sushra Kaiyev. I think Tall
has kind of bad. He got beat up pretty bad
last Contender series. They said he may have had a
knee injury. So he comes out of a tender series
and he fights a guy who's so bad they disqualified
all of his fights. They said, you're so bad you're
not actually a fighter. So that's the tallest fight. He
can't block a leg kick. You're right, Suser Kaias and stuff.
Ty Miller and Drago, I think both these guys are
gonna end up in UFC.
Speaker 3: They're both good. Ty Miller if you.
Speaker 2: Haven't seen him, punch snappy jabs like that fight Under
two and a half, just because each other. I know
the same with Mangoes into Silver. I think both those
guys could end up in UFC. But Miller and Drago
I think goes under. Miller's got these long jabs can
knock you out. Drago's huge step up in competition. And
then Buffy and saying ten, I gotta be honest, I'm
not too excited about that one. But uh, the under
two and a half is superjuice. But I can't quite
can't quite get there. So all right, Giohnny, we're gonna
let you go. Anything in w NBA steamed.
Speaker 4: I didn't bet it, I didn't release it.
Speaker 5: They laid the six, they went to seven and eight,
now nine quickly. I didn't get out ahead of it,
so I just let it go. I said, next one,
I do have five percent four my five dollars. Tuesday
play is up the biggest bet on the Major League
Baseball board.
Speaker 4: That's all I did.
Speaker 5: The one that I already had is throwing lean on
and then multiple groups bet it.
Speaker 4: And then I looked and the public's actually opposite. I'm like, dude,
that's the perfect storm. I'm not moving away from it.
I was looking at Contender Series or UFC for Saturday.
Is the fight dollar fake?
Speaker 5: But I'm like, I'm giving just the biggest throngest bet
I have on the board for today. It's a Major
League Baseball It's up at wagers talk dot com. Don't
forget watch the Contender Series tonight on ESPN Plus.
Speaker 4: Starts early this week.
Speaker 5: It's seven pm Eastern the first week in season. That's
what they do next week or to go back to
normal eight pm Eastern.
Speaker 4: I'll be on throughout the show.
Speaker 5: Parlay before the show, I have to give out of
parlay every week before this.
Speaker 4: When the show.
Speaker 3: Starts out this way, I watch you the totals.
Speaker 5: Parlay on top of it, like there's five fights, I
have to give out three of them, and then people
bitch if it.
Speaker 4: Has That's like telling somebody on the Saturday that there's
UFC twelve twelve fights. You got to give us six
totals six.
Speaker 3: That's a no win situation. It's no win.
Speaker 4: I love hopefully.
Speaker 6: Well, guys.
Speaker 2: Give us a shout out because we'll be watching live
every every single week.
Speaker 4: Getting your swag too. I haven't forgotten brother, I love it.
Speaker 3: I love it. Jeioatty.
Speaker 2: The Greek go grab is five dollars play. Thanks, Johnny,
have a great night.
Speaker 3: Tendor series.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's five dollars Tuesday. I mean, guys, it's five
dollars Tuesday. Let's get excited. The value today is insane.
Every Capra has a play for just five bucks.
Speaker 3: That's right.
Speaker 2: It's the same bets that we normally have for the
price of a cup of coffee, stack them, mix them,
try something new. Whatever you do, do not sit out
five dollars Tuesday. Get as many bets as you want to,
but again, bet responsibly. I am doing a DANEA White
Contender Series play as my five dollars Tuesday every single
Tuesday for the entire season. So starting today, in the
next nine weeks, my five dollars play is Contender Series
that is up.
Speaker 3: Absolutely love this play.
Speaker 2: I love researching Contender Series and as always, we will
be we will be going live on our YouTube channel
to watch Contender Series. If you want to watch Contender Series,
join us there. All right, let's bring on my good
friend Lawrence Presman, who we have not talked to in
a while. My gosh, Lawrence, how has your summer been
so far?
Speaker 7: Oh dude, I'm like so close to being back to work.
The summer's been amazing. Really done very little, to be
honest with you, took took the advantage of the fact
that you took the show over and you know, had
a great run in poker, had an incredible April, had
a better w sop final table, the seniors event. I
don't think we've spoken since I've done that, So that
really made me very happy. Yeah, one about three hundred
and ten thousand dollars Canadians. So what is that about?
Four dollars one dollar less than the five dollars Tuesday play.
Speaker 2: You can get a five dollars Tuesday play with you
with your congraduate three.
Speaker 7: Hundred and ten thousand US Since April Bay, somebody asked me, hey,
pres what do you do these days? I'm like, I'm
a professional poker player.
Speaker 3: Bitch, love it, love it, love it.
Speaker 2: All Right, Well, we got some things to talk about here.
We're going to talk about an NFC division winner. You
got an AFC conference winner, and you have a long
shot that I'm sure is going to bring down the house.
So let's start with your NFC division, which division you're
go in with and.
Speaker 3: Who do you like it? Plus money?
Speaker 7: So before we get into that, sorry Andy, but it's me.
We're also going to talk about the fact that we
are announcing my new show today on your show, and
we're announcing another show today on your show. We have
a ton of information and we're using your show to
do it. But before we get into that, my great
friend Andy Lang, let's get into some sports betting, and yeah,
so a division winner that I love, Andy, And I'm
telling you this is likely going to be a client play.
I very rarely release future bets. I have only released
eleven future bets in my life. I'm eight and three.
I absolutely love this bet and what it is is
San Francisco forty nine ers winning the division NFC West
at plus one fifty. And you know that the bottom
line here is I'd like to take Seattle and Arizona
out of the quest for this division if you will,
can Arizona step up? Sure? Seattle, I think are gonna
be way behind the pack, But I don't think those
guys are going to really vie for the opportunity to
win the NFC West. I think it's gonna come down
to the Rams at plus one ninety five Andrand plus
one fifty. And we have to look at the brand
thing and say, Okay, they lost Deebo. Well, they didn't
have Deebo a lot last year either or the year
before that, and is perennially injured and Brandon Ayuk out
it looks like until week six. But man, I go
down the Fran team, Andy, and you can jump in
any time. I think they have the best defense in
the NFC West and maybe a top three defense in
all of football. This defense is absolutely stacked, So I'm
gonna i have the best defense in this division by far,
and I'm getting plus one fifty. Not only that, but
I think their offense is gonna be just fine. You're
gonna have a well rested, revived and resuscitated CMC back
and ready to go. I think we have the best
player in the division on San Francisco, best defense, best
player I think we have. Listen, Sean mcmay is an
incredible coach. I am a monster and a boat to
these coaches. I think it's a draw, but I love
the coach for the San Francisco forty nine ers, and
once Brandon i Who comes back, We're gonna have that
triple threat where you have the running best running back
in the division, best tight end in the division, and
a really, really, really good wide receiver who could stretch
the field. I don't look at the Rams as some juggernaut.
I think their defense is going to be weaker this
year than it was last year. I think their offense
is going to sputter. They're gonna have some great games
and some bad games, and I think the San fran
team is hungry as hell, and as far as the
debo loss goes, I think that bodes well for the
San Francisco forty nine ers because I think they realize
everybody to a man, realizes their window is closing. This
is their shot. I think San brand is a decent
bet to win the NFC. I think San bren is
a decent bet to win it all. I think San
Bren is a great bet to win the division. And
I like CMC to be MVP as well, although obviously
he's not a quarterback. So there is a whole lot
of info on the go forty nine ers. I am
high on this team. If I could roll them, I
would smoke him.
Speaker 3: All right.
Speaker 2: I think the best thing you have going for you
with that bet is the schedule. It's easy, schedule out
on paper, and Matthew Stafford's back. It's just not gonna
be one hundred percent this year. So all right, let's
go to the AFC. You got a plus money conference.
Well they're all plus money, but you're going You're going
conference winner, correct?
Speaker 5: Yeah?
Speaker 7: Yeah, So, And I like what you said about Matthew Stafford.
The only thing there is that. I just can't count
that guy out, Like like he could have one arm
and come out and be like, you know, we'll be
like handicap. Matthew Stafford is missing his right arm, and
he is a right handed quarter. I'd say we play
against him, comes out and throws seven touchdowns with his left.
So I'm not gonna count Matthew Stafford out. I just
don't think the Rams are have the team around him.
As for your conference winner, look last year I released
the Buffalo Bills to win the division and now they
are minus three hundred to win the division, which is
too big for me to make, but I consider that
to be an incredible bet. Now. I think people are
gonna be like minus three ten. Why would you do
minus three ten? Well, I think it wins more than
thirty percent of the time. I think it wins. I
think Buffalo in this spot with the Patriots, the Dolphins,
and the Jets win this division fifty percent of the time.
So I think the division bet is a reasonable bet.
But I prefer the conference bet. And I'll tell you
right now, I think the conference comes down to three teams.
Baltimore at plus three forty, Buffalo at plus three forty
and Kansas City at plus four to twenty five. So
if you look at Buffalo and Baltimore equally at plus
three forty, where you would go next when handicapping is say, okay,
what is Baltimore to win their division? Well, Baltimore to
win their division is minus one sixty five. Now we
know as a fact that you cannot win the conference
if you don't win your division, because there would be
a team above you. So if the line makers are
telling us that Baltimore has a minus one sixty five
chance to win their division, and Buffalo has a minus
three ten chance to win their division, and the Kansas
City Chiefs have a minus one twenty chance to win
their division, the book makers are telling you flat out
that the one division winner out of those three as
close to guaranteed as it gets is Buffalo. Now we
take apart the schedules. Kansas City and Baltimore have a
nightmare schedule. Baltimore has to play Cincinnati twice, Pittsburgh twice,
and I think we see a better Cleveland team. I
wouldn't even be surprised if Baltimore goes three and three
or four and two, say four and two against their Division.
Kansas City has a much tougher Denver Bronco team in
their division, a much tougher LA Chargers team in their division,
and a Raiders team while I think they get both.
So that leaves us with the Bills. Go look at
this Bill schedule, guys. Not only do they have six
games in the weakest division potentially in all of football,
the Patriots, the Dolphins, and the Jets. They're a joke,
so that I think is a minimum five to one.
But if you dig deep into the bill schedule, it's
way easier than Baltimore's. With that said, what an opening
night game Andy Baltimore against Buffalo in buff which might
come down to who wins or loses the bet. So
I got the home team, I got the team with
much better odds to win their division. I got a
team with a much easier schedule, and I got a
team that is not going to lose a bunch of
division games. I'll take Buffalo at plus money to win
the conference.
Speaker 2: All right, you just gotta hope he avoids Patrick Mahomes
and you're home free.
Speaker 7: I don't care about Patrick Mahomes. We're going with the conference.
This is the league, not the playoffs.
Speaker 3: Oh okay, okay, we have owned Patrick Mahomes.
Speaker 7: Buffalo has owned Patrick Mahomes in the regular season. I
don't care what happens in the playoffs.
Speaker 2: I got you, I got you, all right, Well, give
us your long shot division winner.
Speaker 3: Buckle up on this one.
Speaker 7: Yeah. So my long shot division winner is really straightforward here.
And you know, I was speaking to the most awesomest
Kelly Stewart yesterday and she agrees with me. I like,
as a long shot, the Dallas Cowboys plus five point
fifty to win the division, you can get them up
to six to one to win this division. Now let's
take the Giants out of the equation. Hey, you know,
maybe Russell Wilson finds his Tommy DeVito and plays really well.
I don't know who cares the Giants out. So now
we have Washington and Philly, and I look at this
Philadelphia team and I'm like, Okay, this is the best
team in the division. It's why they're minus won thirty five.
But I think we see a Super Bowl hangover. I
think we see a regression with Philadelphia. I don't think
Philadelphia is going to be the same team they were
last year. And as for Washington, Well, we saw what
happened with CJ. Stroud in his sophomore year. The same
thing can happen to Jaden Daniels. I don't think this
Washington team is stacked. I think they have a good offense.
I think they lack players playmakers on defense. I think
they're there to be taken. And when you look at
this Dallas Cowboy team, I love their new coach. I
think they have Look, I'm assuming Micah Parsons plays for
them in this beat, so they have the best defender
in the division. On their side of the field. They
have an incredible wide receiver. They have a hungry, angry quarterback.
I look at this Dallas team and I think they're
going to upset teams. And on top of it, they
have an easier schedule than Philadelphia. So I think I
would take Dallas right now plus seven week one. I
don't think that number is going to be there, And
I like Dallas as a long shot to win the
division at plus five point fifty, I think they're the
best long shot out there.
Speaker 3: I think you're certifiably insane.
Speaker 7: It took this. It took till to day like this
is when you made that assessment.
Speaker 2: No, no, no, no, hey, listen, there's gonna be surprises.
Speaker 3: There are every year. You just gotta get one to hit.
Speaker 8: Uh.
Speaker 3: So, yeah, things could go your way.
Speaker 7: So why what's your problem with the Cowboys? You think
Philly and Washington are so much more like. Philly is
a good team, for sure, but this is a team.
Speaker 3: That's the super Bowl champs.
Speaker 2: Yes, yeah, they've done well, They've done well for themselves.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, that's a great point.
Speaker 2: The commanders on the upswing, they're gonna have a tougher schedule.
But I just can't buy into Dak Prescott.
Speaker 3: That's all. That's all. It's simply a Dak.
Speaker 2: Prescott thing and the Jerry Jones thing and the Cowboys things.
Speaker 7: I'm no Jerry, I'm no, and I'm no Jerry Jones fan,
that's for sure. And I'm no Dak Prescott fan. But
Philly will regress.
Speaker 2: Andy Lang all right, all right, Okay, you have a
new show and it's five dollars Tuesday, So tell us
about the show first, then tell us about your play.
Speaker 7: Okay, So the show Andy starts on Monday, September first.
It is a week a daily show Monday Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday,
and Friday. We will be taping the show at ten
thirty am Eastern Time. It will not be a live show.
The show will be forty five minutes long. It will
be hosted by myself. That will not have guests. It
will only have two regular daily people joining me. The
show will be me Joveniary and Art to Caesar. That'll
be the show myself, jove Niary and Art to Caesar.
We are. It's gonna be like nothing we've ever done
on Wager Talk. The show is gonna be up against
the clock. We have ten ten to twelve segments every
single day. They will all be time segments to give
you perspective. We're gonna be bring We're gonna be talking
about all the main sports, but we're also gonna be
doing predict the predictive betting market where you find you know,
when will the tariffs come in, who will be the
mayor of New York. We're gonna be discussing that kind
of stuff as well. We're gonna do bad beats. We're
gonna do every game on the board. We're not gonna
do big game breakdowns. The show will not be ten
minutes on one particular game. So I'll give you a
quick rundown of say pick a day, Andy Pickaday, Thursday
Thursday's show. We have a three minute opening segment. Then
we will take a part in the Thursday night football game.
But we will do it. We'll do every part of it,
the ats, the total prop bet, same game parlay. Then
we're gonna do a segment called bet your body part.
That's where we decide how strong a bet is based
on whether we're prepared to bet our or our and
then we will have the on Thursday, the college football segment,
the five biggest primetime games on the board. Art the
Caesar will go behind the counter. Then we'll do a
segment on what does Art like. Then we're gonna do
every day. We will be giving out a three team parlay.
Art will pick one, I will pick one, Joe n
Airy will pick one. Then we'll have the every game
on the board. We're always gonna have pop culture movies,
TV shows, investment strategies, and then we'll have a summary
end of show. Bam, that'll be the Thursday show. Thank
you for asking, Andy.
Speaker 2: I love it, man, that's exciting a little little variety.
Variety is the spice of life. Congratulations to you three.
That'll be a lot of fun. I can't wait to
watch it.
Speaker 3: So yeah, start September first, Yeah, we are.
Speaker 7: We are going to be doing an NFL preview show
next week and a college football preview show next week.
But the real concept of the show is super quick
Hitters with three, with two incredible betters and a bookmaker
the show. Nay, Andy, are you ready for the name
of the show?
Speaker 3: Hit me with it?
Speaker 7: The best betting show ever. That's it, simple.
Speaker 3: Chat EBT can't come up with that? Or was that?
Did you chat?
Speaker 7: LP chat LP?
Speaker 3: Okay?
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, Well I'm excited for you. I'm excited
to have press back in my life, no doubt. All right,
it's five dollars Tuesday. What do you have up for
everyone at wait you talk?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 7: So I got and then I got a four percent
play in Major League Baseball and it is a money
line bet. These four percent plays are very very rare
for me. Every Andy Capper can do their own thing.
I get it, total respect. I've released two four percent
baseball plays this entire season. I've released forty four percent
plays since January. I'm sixty nine percent in four percent
play since January forty of them. I'm on a nine
to one run in this play, and I've won both
my two in baseball, So ninety five percent of my
plays are two percent and three percent plays. I really
am stepping out when I release a four percent play.
I have one tonight. I also have a flash sale going,
Andy Lang. It's only for the next twenty four hours.
You buy my NFL season, you get my college football
season for free, so you head over if you do
decide to play my NFL, which would be a very
wise move as I kill it in NFL, You'll get
my college football for free. The clock starts now, you
have twenty more hours to take advantage of that. And lastly, oh,
two more things. The NFL Presidential Address will be back
this year. Day one will be Tuesday, September second, And
Andy Lang, we got a Sunday show Common one to
four o'clock live, a live show while watching all the games.
I will be participating in that show, and I'm excited.
Shout out to Johnny Detroit and his team, Chris Allen, Dan,
you guys were figuring that out. That's gonna be a
fun show. You're gonna get to see me freaking out
over NFL football. Did I add him trigger that segment
or what? Andy?
Speaker 3: No, we haven't seen you in a while.
Speaker 2: I just want to say, for the record, I've been
begging for live shows.
Speaker 3: I was flat out told no, And now you guys
are bragging that we're having a live show.
Speaker 2: This is an amazing moment for me. So but it's
gonna be awesome. It's gonna be awesome.
Speaker 3: It's good to see you. Go grab that.
Speaker 2: Special, go grab that five dollars play. We have the
real Adam Trigger coming on.
Speaker 7: Yeah, And and Andy, I hope to I hope to
see throughout the year. I'm gonna ask to be on
your show regularly so you and I can continue to
do this. Plus I really do miss Dan and his
extremely dark humor. Other than that, guys, make sure to
watch the new show, The Best Betting Show Ever, starts
on September. First, Me, Joe and Arian Art to Caesar.
Lots of love everyone, One of a kind.
Speaker 3: Lawrence Presman, amazing job.
Speaker 2: All right, Dan, let's go all around the world, give
the people some free winners.
Speaker 3: Here.
Speaker 2: We got a couple of baseball plays and then we
got a w NBA play. We're gonna start with Jimmy
Adams and his play Mariners at the Orioles Mariners minus one.
Mariners won seventh straight. The acquisitions they've made at the
Tree Deadliner paying off Kirby first. Seattle only allowed two
runs last two starts, and the Mariners a one nine
out of the last eleven games that he started and
were fading.
Speaker 3: Kramer for Baltimore allowed four runs last game.
Speaker 2: Seattle better bullpen, so let's take advantage of that minus
one market. Teddy Covers loves the Dodgers minus one and
a half. They are a top five winning percentage team
when they come off a loss. Their bullpen is getting healthy.
Huge advantage in the bullpen for the Dodgers, and Madero's
starting for the Angels does not eat up a lot
of innings, so expect the Dodgers to pull away, relate
against that weak Angels bullpen, and then Wnba wings at Fever.
The line started at one sixty eight, so now up
to one seventy two and a half. This is a
perfect time to come back on the under. I watched
the Fever all the time. They're struggling. They lost two
players for the year, Caitlin Clark is still out in
the last five games. These teams are seventh and tenth
offensive rating. The Wings are just a mnemic on offense.
They haven't scored above seventy eight and four straight games.
The last time these two teams played, it was a
one sixty six total with similar lineups, and Becker's is
probable tonight, but dealing with a back injury. I like
the under in the Wings at the fever.
Speaker 3: All right, let's bring on Adam.
Speaker 2: Trigger After Adam, we're gonna break down the Vikings over
under eight and a half on their season win total.
Speaker 3: Adam, I hope you're having.
Speaker 2: A great Tuesday here. Well, let's jump right into a
Pirates in the Brewers. You got scheeds for Pittsburgh, Paralza
for Milwaukee. I'm already seeing six and a halfs on
the total here, so we are not expecting a lot
of runs.
Speaker 3: Do you like a side? Do you like a total?
How do you break this game down?
Speaker 8: Yeah, I'll give you the almost muted myself, sorry about that.
I'll give you the breakdown here of the game. I
actually I like that at the current price point. Andy,
I do like the Pirates, and I'll explain why I
don't think there's huge edges on the MLV board today,
but I really think when you break this game down
from all angles, there is some value on the pirates.
Speaker 6: With schemes at plus money.
Speaker 8: So I do think people are looking at this game
and sort of looking at the pitching being even I
disagree with that. Paul Skeen's is an absolute generational talent.
And for as good as Freddy Peralta has been this year,
really nice season. He's having his era is year three,
whips one point one four, It's very solid. But when
you put their numbers next to each other, he's not Skeens.
He still will give up some fly balls. And the
biggest thing I've noticed with Peralta is post All Star Break,
command hasn't been quite as good. Twelve walks in nineteen
innings and four starts since the All Star Break. I'm
not saying he's like gonna go in the other direction.
I just think that, like there's more When you're talking
about Paul Skeen's one of the elite pitchers in the
game today and you put Freddy Barlta next to him,
Skeens is still the better option. Now what I think
goes a little bit unnoticed here because of how good
the Brewers have been is the fact that these two
bullpens are very, very equal if you look at their numbers,
if you were to cover Tokyo. Brandon loves to say this,
but it's a great point that he makes on our
daily show. If you were to cover the two names
and put the bullpen numbers right next to each other,
they'd be almost identical.
Speaker 6: And that's the thing.
Speaker 8: Even with Benner going to the Yankees, the Pirates kind
of have some sneaky good bullpen arms. And the Brewers,
you know, they haven't always needed their bullpen during this run,
but they have log quite a few leverage innings having
won ten games in a row.
Speaker 6: So let's acknowledge what the Brewers have done.
Speaker 8: Eleven game win streak in July, They've rattled off ten
straight to start August. It's very impressive. You know, they
are a absolutely one of the top teams in Major
League Baseball. But if we're just looking at today, who's
winning today's game? We got Paul Skins, and the two
bullpens are relatively even. The Pirates have a better WRC
plus against right handed pitching. I just think that getting
schemes at plus one fifteen, plus one twenty is the
value here?
Speaker 6: Is it gonna make my client card?
Speaker 8: No, But if we're just talking about what I think
the best move in this game is, it's not trying
to get in that total.
Speaker 6: Six and a half I think is a pretty sharp number.
Speaker 8: So I look for the Pirates plus money and what
I truly believe is more more of a coin flip
type game.
Speaker 2: Well, the strategists asking me for team totals, I like
the Brewers under the under three and a half. I
know they've been red hot. I mean, these numbers from
schemes are are just absolutely insane. He had one game
he gave up four runs to Colorado. That was at Colorado.
I mean, you know, balls flying. But the games around
that zero against Cities, zero against Arizona, zero against Detroit.
Speaker 3: I mean, Adam, He's unbelievable.
Speaker 2: So, yeah, you want to you want a team total
for me Brewers in a very very low scoring game,
and you're right, that just gives the Pirates an even
better chance with this low totals. You know there's only
six runs in the game. Sure, yeah, you might be
four to two or three two something like that.
Speaker 3: Going in late so.
Speaker 2: Good breakdown on that NFL preseason. Any thoughts that you
that you I know you had a good week two
and oh last week, So what'd you see well in preseason?
Speaker 8: I think the only thing I really thought, well, the
reason I won both of those plays, Andy, is I
kind of, you know, the market got to a point
where I felt like I had to play back. So
my two plays for Week one preseason where the Ravens
and the Browns.
Speaker 6: They were both day of.
Speaker 8: And I'll go back to something Gianni was talking about
at the top of the show where he kind of
pointed out, listen, like, the only way to play a
certain game. I'll use the you know, Titans Falcons game
for an example. At this point, the only way to
play that game is the Falcons because you've already missed
the three and a half or the three or whatever
the Titans was at the open. The reason I played
the Ravens and the Browns is I just didn't agree
with a six and a half point move in a
preseason game where the game was is largely decided by players.
Speaker 6: That wasn't the reason the number moved in the first place.
Speaker 8: So every preseason move you're going to see is based
on information, typically information as you know, pertaining to how
long starters are going to play.
Speaker 6: These starters don't decide the game.
Speaker 8: And so I see a number like the Titans move
up from three and a half to five and a
half an instant, I instantly assume that they're going to
play their starters for a while.
Speaker 6: Okay, but what does that even mean? Right?
Speaker 8: Like we saw cam Ward for two series last weekend.
I didn't think he was great. First series wasn't great.
They did score a touchdown on the second one, but
that's only because he basically threw a pick that was dropped.
So again, does it how much is that worth?
Speaker 6: Right?
Speaker 8: Like, if they play a little bit longer, is it
even worth anything? I think you have to ask yourself
that the Falcons showed nothing, They didn't play any of
their starters, and their game got cut short. So you know,
maybe they play a little bit longer, maybe they don't,
But can you move something two points?
Speaker 6: Three points?
Speaker 8: And so that was my strategy week one, played against
the moves with the move with the Browns and the Ravens,
and it worked out.
Speaker 6: It's likely what I'll look to do here in week two.
Speaker 8: I haven't played anything yet, because Andy, that takes time
to materialize.
Speaker 6: It's all about how far the steam.
Speaker 8: And my gut says, we're not going to see the
spots like we did week one because I think the uh,
you know, the steam chasers in week one kind of
got crushed. So I don't think we'll see moves like
we did last week. So maybe I'll have nothing, but
I'll certainly be looking for plays.
Speaker 3: All right.
Speaker 2: I like, yeah, your strategy did really well. Your strategy
did really really well across the board on that. So
Adam you came on last second.
Speaker 3: Thank you so much. It's five dollars Tuesday. Tell rom
what you have out.
Speaker 8: Yeah, I got a baseball play four percenter hit my
five percent MLB play last night. I've been on a
really good run fourteen and three the last week. If
I'm going back to June first, uh one on one
sixty eight and three, that's fifty nine point eight percent
plus seventy three point six eight units.
Speaker 6: That number sounds big.
Speaker 8: But you know, April and May were down for me, Andy,
so you know, I kind of just you kind of
got to ride out the peaks in the valleys a
couple April and May didn't go as well. June and
July were great. We're off to a great start in August.
Just try to, you know, try to win again today.
And I've got a baseball play that I really like
going for. I think five straight MLB winners off of
the five percent win with the Rays last night, so
a five I like. And it's only five dollars, So,
I mean, I could think of worse ways to spend
five bucks.
Speaker 2: Sandy, right, I'll probably I'll probably find one and spend
five dollars on something stupid later today. So all right,
Adam Trigger, everybody go grab that five dollars play in MLB.
Thank you so much for joining us and continued success.
Let's have a big August.
Speaker 6: Man, same to you. Thanks for having.
Speaker 2: Me absolutely again last time, guys, five dollars Tuesday.
Speaker 3: It's it's the no brainer.
Speaker 2: These plays that are normal price, so but these are
eighty percent off my play in particulars for TEENA White
Contender series.
Speaker 3: We're four and zero in our last four.
Speaker 2: MMA plays and Contender series has been a big, big
part of building our bank rolls over the years, and
we only get ten weeks of it. So don't sit
this one out five dollars best bet as life in
Contender series.
Speaker 4: You go to the.
Speaker 3: Website, Every Haiti caap er has one up.
Speaker 2: So you want mL We got plenty of MLB. You
want NFL. I'm sure there's NFL futures up. You want WNBA,
I'm sure we got those as well. So take a
picket at your favorite handicapper. You want to try somebody new,
today is the day to do it. Get as many
as you want, but always bet responsible. Make sure we
don't have too much of our bank roll on these plays.
All right, let's bring in Dan. Let's do the Vikings here.
Tough one eat and a half. Tough one here, Dan?
Or is it fourteen and three last year?
Speaker 3: I don't know. Can you take anything away from that?
Speaker 2: You know, we're going to a quarterback who really hasn't played.
I'll go over the offseason moves and there are a
ton of them.
Speaker 3: So Darnold was out. JJ McCarthy is in.
Speaker 2: They really beefed up their tackles, their defensive tackles mean,
Jonathan Allen Hargrave is in. They rated my colts offensive line.
Speaker 3: They got two guys Ryan Kelly and have fun with
the health of Ryan Kelly. I'll leave it at that.
Speaker 2: They added a lot to their secondary and CBS they
needed to, they lost some. They re signed Aaron Jones,
and I cant to tell you I love the addition
to Jordan Mason. I think Jordan Mason it would be
a starter on most teams, Like he was really good
when he got run last year.
Speaker 3: So depth their secondary.
Speaker 2: PFF has their running backs rated eleventh, if that tells
you anything, sixth with wide receivers, seventh, in offensive line, sixteenth,
defensive line, tenth with linebackers twenty seventh with the secondary.
What's your take on the vikings here before we do
that schedule?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, and the schedule is a huge part
of it because they have it's a it's not a
it's not a horribly difficult schedule, but it's one of
the weirdest schedules in the NFL. They have this really
weird stretch to start the year. They have two games
that they play in London. So we'll get into that
in just a second. This really comes down to, you know,
is JJ McCarthy the guy and coaching staff that brings
back Hell with a lot of continuity. Bod defensive offense
coordinator back, and you have the coach of the year.
You know who am I to say those three guys
and this front office are incorrect in thinking JJ McCarthy
deserves the keys to the castle. You know, on the
outside looking in, I would say, I don't really think
that he's the guy. But this is a team who
traded up for him, who said we don't want Donald.
You know, before that it was hey, well let's move on,
you know, from from from Kirk Cousins as well.
Speaker 6: So for me, this is a.
Speaker 1: Team that just goes over this number every single year.
Speaker 7: Right.
Speaker 1: You mentioned last year they were lined at seven wins
before the season last year, largely part too, because it
was Sam Darnold under center, right, So how could we
like this team over Andy?
Speaker 4: They went over.
Speaker 1: That by seven wins. They got fourteen wins last year.
Do you understand how hard it is to beat a
market expectation by seven wins, either under or over like
something seismically has to happen. And what's seismically happened is
that Kevin O'Connell.
Speaker 7: For all the people who talk.
Speaker 1: About quarterback whisperers around the NFL, this is a guy
who gets the absolute must most from who is ever
under center? Yes, Sam Darnold turned back into a pumpkin,
but the fact that he stayed that off the entire year,
there's a lot to be gleaned from that. So nine
and a half is what I would make this number. Andy,
you know what I mean. I hate again. You know,
the people know that I love my overs. But for
what it's worth, I think the Bears are going to be,
you know, a team who's not going to be going
over expectations. I think the Lions are gonna heavily regress
this season, and I think it's a two team race
between this team and the Packers. So there has to
be teams that I like over in this division. If
there's teams that I like under, you know, I'm bullish
on the Packers. I'm pretty bullish here on the Vikings
as well. But Andy, the part that gives me pause
and why I wouldn't bet this is the schedule is bizarre.
You know, you can give a little bit more thoughts
on this, but the first half of the season, you
have one true road game, but you also have two
games sprinkled in that are going to be played in London,
and they stay out in London. So if anything, that's
probably a positive that you stay out there. Maybe a
negative Game one, a positive in Game two. But then
the second half of the season only three home games
from the stretch of the end of October through Christmas,
and those three home games andy are Ravens and Commanders
or two of them, and then you have the Bears,
you know which, Again in division, you you never really know.
The schedule is so strange to me, which is why
I couldn't make this bet, even though everything in my
being says this is a no brainer over.
Speaker 2: Mm okay, all right, just to put it in perspective,
a seven win difference is if the Browns win twelve
or thirteen games.
Speaker 3: Just exactly picture that exactly.
Speaker 2: Here's their schedule at Bears, Falcons, Bengals, overseas Browns. We
got those two overseas games, and then the bye week.
Here's what I like about the bye week. The rookie
I'm calling him a rookie, the rookie quarterback gets an
extra week to get with the coaching with the coaching staff.
I think that's a good early bye week. But then yikes,
they come out Eagles at Chargers at Lions, Ravens. That's
that's out of your bye week.
Speaker 3: Brutal.
Speaker 2: Then we got Bears at Packers at Seahawks, Commanders at
Cowboys at Giant Lane Packers. I am with you, I
can't bet this. It's an ever so slight lean to
the under. Even though I do trust the coaching staff,
I trust the weapons that they have. But if McCarthy
turns out to be not the guy, this team is
in a world of hurt. They're big, big trouble. So
I just it's a very, very slight lean to the under.
But this is one of the most unplayable.
Speaker 3: Agree just because.
Speaker 1: There's because i'm because it really does hinge on, it
really does hinge on what happens with the quarterback. But
I guess the reason why that ended up with me
leaning towards the over pretty heavily is simply because Kevin
O'Connell has had a question market quarterback pretty much every
single season, and what does he do every single season?
Speaker 6: He exceeds the expectation.
Speaker 1: So I think Kevin O'Connell is the quarterback whisperer in
the NFL.
Speaker 7: And again with a team who has shown.
Speaker 1: Time and time again they blow past market expectations. You know,
who am I to doubt this front office and coaching staff.
Speaker 3: I'm with you.
Speaker 1: I don't like the hype around JJ McCarthy. I don't
see it. I didn't think he was all that great.
They hid JJ McCarthy in Michigan to win a national championship.
Speaker 6: You know what I mean.
Speaker 1: They backed it up on a solid running game and
you know, really picking the spots to let him shine.
So I don't like the hype around McCarthy. But a
team and an a front office and a head coach
and a coaching staff that brings back all this continuity.
If they think JJ McCarthy is the guy, I'm not
gonna armchair quarterback and act like I know better than them.
But I'm kind of with you. The the little lynchpin
and all of it is what do you get out
of J. J.
Speaker 6: McCarthy. And that's why you can't bet this one.
Speaker 3: It's unbettable. It's unbettable.
Speaker 2: Uh Vullbecks asked Justin Jefferson or Jamar who you taking
the fantasy? That's an easy one, Jamar Chase. Yeah, those
those games are gonna be from the Bengals are just
gonna be shooting shootouts. Their defense is awful. Uh, he's
got the he's got the connection. It's Jamar Chap I mean,
I think Jamar is like the number one overall fantasy pick.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And every draft that I've done, I'm in five
different fantasy leagues. I've drafted in three of them, Jamar
Chase has the been the one oh one and all
of them. And let's be real, that never shakes out
the way that it really should. But if you're asking
me any wide receiver that you're taking in the first round, uh,
you know, if Jamar Chase is there, Jamar Chase is
the no brainer one to do it. Like you typically
don't see the wide receiver one happen in back to
back years. But really, if you look at that Bengals defense,
they're gonna be passing. Even when they have leads, they pass.
So I think the no brainer, you know, when you're
when you're at that one spoder towards the top of
the draft, get Jamar Chase. Then when the quarterbacks start
going stacking with Joe Burrow, that's gonna be that's gonna
be the stack of all stacks, especially if you have
a six point quarterback league.
Speaker 7: So yeah, I.
Speaker 1: Would be There's no one that I would really make
the case for over Jamar Chase. He's proven it time
and time again, and it's gonna be a defense that
requires passing.
Speaker 2: Love it, love it all right, Dan, thanks for joining us. Yeah,
not too much action on the Vikings season, so all right, guys,
thanks so much for joining us. Outside of the five
dollars play, there is a UFC and pfil L pack
that's up with two five percent plays.
Speaker 3: That's right.
Speaker 2: We have not one, not two plays, but two of
them are five percent plays.
Speaker 3: So I'll talk more about that tomorrow because today is
all about five dollars.
Speaker 2: All right, guys, thanks so much for joining us. Hit
that like button, Please hit that like button. We've got
tons of people in are watch and not enough likes
really helps us out. Leave us a comment, tell us
you like today, give us your thoughts on the Vikings
looks like look said, we had a lot of strong
opinions on JJ McCarthy in here, so let us know
in the comment section what you think.
Speaker 3: I'm interested. All right, thanks so much for joining us. Guys.
Speaker 2: We will be live on the Winning in the Shadows
YouTube channel watching danawit Contender series tonight, so we want
to check that out. Thanks so much for joining us,
good luck on all your bets, and take care