1 00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:06,240 Speaker 1: NFL Week thirteen sands the Thanksgiving and Black Friday games. 2 00:00:06,280 --> 00:00:08,720 Those are in another video if you guys missed that 3 00:00:08,759 --> 00:00:11,599 over the wager Talk YouTube channel. But we're still gonna 4 00:00:11,599 --> 00:00:13,880 go over Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football. We've got 5 00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:16,359 the Steam report from VR, We've got the Deli from Marco. 6 00:00:16,839 --> 00:00:21,359 Those barking dogs keep on cash and outright, and that 7 00:00:21,519 --> 00:00:23,920 is the name of the game. My best bets, not 8 00:00:24,120 --> 00:00:26,719 so much Marco and VR, though they've been making you 9 00:00:26,760 --> 00:00:30,760 guys money all season long. Right up next here on 10 00:00:30,920 --> 00:00:50,560 bet on It Happy Thanksgiving. That is a different video, 11 00:00:50,560 --> 00:00:52,799 as I alluded to, But I'm assuming you guys are 12 00:00:52,840 --> 00:00:56,359 watching this as your regularly scheduled program. Make sure you 13 00:00:56,399 --> 00:00:58,840 guys spend some time with your friends and family. You 14 00:00:59,000 --> 00:01:02,439 damn degenerate. Yes, I will not be. I will be 15 00:01:02,479 --> 00:01:05,120 watching NFL and probably on end Zone live with the 16 00:01:05,159 --> 00:01:08,879 Press hating my life as he goes on some crazy rants. 17 00:01:08,879 --> 00:01:12,079 So we'll see you guys over there. Last call on 18 00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:14,359 Saturday with me and VR. If you guys are looking 19 00:01:14,359 --> 00:01:17,120 for college football, that is a different video as well. 20 00:01:17,159 --> 00:01:21,200 But this is the thirteenth week of the NFL season. 21 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:25,439 Marco DiAngelo, Yanni corrals, and we're going to get right 22 00:01:25,480 --> 00:01:30,560 in to bet on It with Sunday Night Football. My 23 00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:33,280 Denver Broncos six and a half point road favorites at 24 00:01:33,280 --> 00:01:36,439 the Washington Commanders total forty three and a half't we 25 00:01:36,439 --> 00:01:38,920 talk a lot about fraudulent teams here on bet on It. 26 00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:43,079 Marco gave out one for Black Friday. Whoopsie. That being said, 27 00:01:43,319 --> 00:01:46,920 are the Denver Broncos fraudulent? I kind of think they 28 00:01:47,000 --> 00:01:47,319 might be. 29 00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:49,200 Speaker 2: Well, here's the thing. 30 00:01:49,799 --> 00:01:53,599 Speaker 3: They're winning. They got only two losses. Call they're nine 31 00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:57,319 and two football team, but they're not getting it done 32 00:01:57,359 --> 00:02:01,719 by margin, and that's the difference. And when you're winning 33 00:02:01,799 --> 00:02:05,959 by seven eight to three games and six of those 34 00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:09,240 are by three or four points or less, it could 35 00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:11,960 have gone the other way for you. And when you 36 00:02:12,039 --> 00:02:17,199 dig into the data, there's teams that are have a 37 00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:20,479 worst record that would be favored over them. 38 00:02:20,639 --> 00:02:22,240 Speaker 2: And what I mean by that is like. 39 00:02:22,639 --> 00:02:27,159 Speaker 3: Kansas City, Baltimore, Houston. Those are teams that are six 40 00:02:27,199 --> 00:02:30,919 and five, seven and four Detroit, seven and four, Buffalo, 41 00:02:31,039 --> 00:02:34,800 They would all be favored over a nine and two Denver. 42 00:02:34,919 --> 00:02:38,439 And the reason for it is Denver's had a very easy. 43 00:02:38,159 --> 00:02:39,039 Speaker 2: Strength of schedule. 44 00:02:39,039 --> 00:02:42,080 Speaker 3: In fact, only four teams in all the NFL have 45 00:02:42,199 --> 00:02:45,879 had an easier strength of schedule than Denver. And yet 46 00:02:46,000 --> 00:02:48,960 even with that easy strength of schedule, they don't even 47 00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:53,080 have a top twenty offense. In efficiency, they're in the 48 00:02:53,159 --> 00:02:57,680 bottom ten offensively. It's the defensive side of the ball 49 00:02:58,080 --> 00:03:01,360 that's impressive for Denver, where they're top five, but once 50 00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:05,240 again it's with one of the easiest schedules in. 51 00:03:05,159 --> 00:03:06,120 Speaker 2: All of the NFL. 52 00:03:06,919 --> 00:03:09,879 Speaker 3: That's why how much you know stock can you really 53 00:03:09,919 --> 00:03:11,680 put even in that defense. 54 00:03:12,120 --> 00:03:14,120 Speaker 2: Now, on the flip side, you look at Washington. 55 00:03:14,680 --> 00:03:18,240 Speaker 3: They've had a much tougher strength of schedule than Denver, 56 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:22,000 has nothing to really brag about. Not impressive, I mean, 57 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:30,800 twenty second offense, barely bottom five defensively. Statistically, again, nothing 58 00:03:30,879 --> 00:03:34,560 sexy about Washington. So it isn't really where I'm saying 59 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:37,639 I have a bet on Washington. Instead, I'm looking at 60 00:03:37,639 --> 00:03:40,400 a fade of Denver and I haven't gotten into the 61 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:43,039 window with This is a disclaimer. It's the TV game 62 00:03:43,080 --> 00:03:45,960 I was given and it's just if I had to 63 00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:48,400 bet it. I just think that the line's a little 64 00:03:48,439 --> 00:03:51,840 bit too high because you look at the splits Denver's 65 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:53,879 been a powerhouse at home where they haven't lost a 66 00:03:53,919 --> 00:03:54,599 single game. 67 00:03:54,919 --> 00:03:56,560 Speaker 2: They're only three and two on the road. 68 00:03:57,319 --> 00:04:00,919 Speaker 3: You look at Washington, They've won two x the amount 69 00:04:00,919 --> 00:04:03,240 of home games as they have on the road. So 70 00:04:03,400 --> 00:04:05,879 I like to split there. I like the fact that 71 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:13,520 Denver's coming off a huge, huge divisional win against Kansas 72 00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:17,800 City after beating the Raiders another divisional win. But let's 73 00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:19,759 not forget they were eight and a half point favorite 74 00:04:19,759 --> 00:04:22,040 against the Raiders, and that's what happens to a team 75 00:04:22,079 --> 00:04:24,720 that's not elite. They get caught looking ahead and you 76 00:04:24,759 --> 00:04:27,399 saw what happened. They only beat the Raiders by three points. 77 00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:31,680 Why because they had Kansas City on deck. That's what 78 00:04:31,720 --> 00:04:34,920 you would expect from a team that isn't dominant, and 79 00:04:34,959 --> 00:04:37,240 at nine and two, you should be dominant, and that's 80 00:04:37,319 --> 00:04:40,839 just not what Denver is. So back to this game, 81 00:04:41,360 --> 00:04:44,199 That's why I wouldn't be comfortable laying a touchdown on 82 00:04:44,279 --> 00:04:46,680 the road, because you got to be dominant to do that. 83 00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:49,279 You have to have offense to do that. Because you're 84 00:04:49,279 --> 00:04:53,879 talking about winning by double digits, and with Washington not 85 00:04:54,040 --> 00:04:58,160 having covered sixth straight games, seven straight games. Now, I 86 00:04:58,199 --> 00:05:01,600 think that the markets going looking at a correction. 87 00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:04,360 Speaker 2: They're getting a little more points than they should. Denver's 88 00:05:04,600 --> 00:05:06,920 given more points than they should. We're getting a little 89 00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:09,079 bit of line value. Best you could ever hope for 90 00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:10,959 give me Washington plus the points. 91 00:05:11,720 --> 00:05:14,279 Speaker 1: Yeah, I considered that side as well, maybe at least 92 00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:18,360 in a couple of my contest picks. Mark, I'm curious 93 00:05:18,399 --> 00:05:21,040 to see who you like on Monday Night football, the 94 00:05:21,079 --> 00:05:24,879 New York Giants seven and a half point underdogs at 95 00:05:24,920 --> 00:05:27,680 New England. Is New England a fraudulent team? 96 00:05:28,920 --> 00:05:31,279 Speaker 4: I don't think so, Kelly, and you know the New 97 00:05:31,399 --> 00:05:34,759 York Giants. You know, let's you know, it's Thanksgiving. What 98 00:05:34,759 --> 00:05:37,759 are you gonna be thankful for? Let's be thankful for 99 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:40,839 Jameis Winston because he's gonna entertain us for at least 100 00:05:40,839 --> 00:05:44,720 a couple games every year. And he did last Sunday. 101 00:05:44,959 --> 00:05:49,160 I don't know if you saw the touchdown past lot. 102 00:05:49,639 --> 00:05:52,000 Speaker 2: In the movie he made to get into the end zone. 103 00:05:52,600 --> 00:05:55,879 Speaker 4: That was fun, But the knee jerk reaction if you 104 00:05:55,959 --> 00:05:59,279 look at the Giants after what they did last week, 105 00:05:59,560 --> 00:06:04,639 go into Detroit fourteen point underdogs. They had that game one. 106 00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:06,920 Detroit had to hit a long field goal at the 107 00:06:07,000 --> 00:06:08,879 end of the game to send it to overtime, and 108 00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:13,680 then they won it in overtime. We also see that 109 00:06:14,079 --> 00:06:18,160 the Lions. Did they get caught looking ahead last week? 110 00:06:18,279 --> 00:06:21,480 And I'm kicking myself because that was a big sandwich spot. 111 00:06:21,519 --> 00:06:24,040 But I thought coming off of a loss they would 112 00:06:24,040 --> 00:06:26,680 be better focused. But face it, they came off a 113 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:30,879 Sunday night football game against Philadelphia the week before, and 114 00:06:31,399 --> 00:06:37,000 they had that game on Thanksgiving Day with Green Bay. 115 00:06:37,319 --> 00:06:41,399 So the Giants win or narrow loss looks better than 116 00:06:41,480 --> 00:06:46,879 it actually was. And what do I tell you teams 117 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:49,759 that have a big effort and come up just short, 118 00:06:50,959 --> 00:06:54,639 that is the poster child for lose the same game twice. 119 00:06:55,079 --> 00:06:58,680 And we've got New England that's coming home here. Did 120 00:06:58,759 --> 00:07:02,639 they look past since last week? Possibly there was a 121 00:07:02,639 --> 00:07:05,959 lot of buzz that Joe Burrow was gonna play last 122 00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:09,120 week and then he didn't. Did they overlook them? Were 123 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:12,279 they looking ahead to Monday Night football? New England's not 124 00:07:12,399 --> 00:07:15,439 been on Monday Night football for a while, you know, 125 00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:18,079 since the days of Tampa Bay, or excuse me, since 126 00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:21,199 Tom Brady before he went to Tampa Bay. They were 127 00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:25,040 a regular fixture on primetime games. This is a statement 128 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:28,079 game for them. I think they were looking ahead last week, 129 00:07:28,279 --> 00:07:31,480 and I think you're gonna see this team who is 130 00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:35,040 good on both sides of the football. Drake May far 131 00:07:35,199 --> 00:07:38,560 and away the best second year quarterback in the NFL 132 00:07:38,639 --> 00:07:41,319 this year. He has made the most progress, even over 133 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:47,439 Caleb Williams in Chicago. The defense for New England is solid. 134 00:07:47,720 --> 00:07:50,279 I don't see the Giants being able to move the 135 00:07:50,319 --> 00:07:53,560 football this week against New England the way they did 136 00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:58,199 against Detroit. We know Detroit has their problems defensively, and 137 00:07:58,319 --> 00:08:04,480 for England, they'll have no problem moving against this Giant's defense. 138 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:08,600 Let's go ahead lay the points here with New England. 139 00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:12,000 I've got them winning by eleven, twenty eight to seventeen. 140 00:08:12,720 --> 00:08:14,959 Speaker 1: All right, guys, this week you can get a free 141 00:08:15,399 --> 00:08:19,279 edition of The gold Sheet. Right here is the website 142 00:08:19,319 --> 00:08:22,079 you want to go to. You guys are welcome. Happy 143 00:08:22,519 --> 00:08:27,160 Thanksgiving weekend, enjoy the four days with your family. Make 144 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:30,199 sure you check out VR on Sunday with Ariel Epstein. 145 00:08:30,240 --> 00:08:33,440 He's going to give you the Steam Report here on Wednesdays, though, 146 00:08:33,480 --> 00:08:35,279 we give you a little preview so that we can 147 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:36,799 codify it come Sunday. 148 00:08:37,519 --> 00:08:40,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, little taste a little bit of the early action. 149 00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:44,519 Speaker 3: Keep in mind some of the biggest days ahead for 150 00:08:44,799 --> 00:08:52,440 Sharps with Better's home for the holidays, all from work, drinking, eating, 151 00:08:52,799 --> 00:08:56,960 standalone games on TV rest ashore, a lot of money's 152 00:08:57,000 --> 00:09:00,600 being wager, and money moves lines just like res does, 153 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:04,039 so the Sharps no to stick around. Some of these 154 00:09:04,039 --> 00:09:06,360 lines will be knocked out of whack come game day 155 00:09:06,679 --> 00:09:09,639 and they're there to pounce, So make sure you're there 156 00:09:09,679 --> 00:09:14,200 for Last Call and steam room as well. Now, let's 157 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:16,639 look at some of the games that got hit early on. 158 00:09:16,759 --> 00:09:20,120 Start with four sixty six Tennessee plus seven and a 159 00:09:20,159 --> 00:09:22,720 half and seven. I'll talk about them a little bit later. 160 00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:26,600 For sixty seven La Rams minus nine, nine and a 161 00:09:26,639 --> 00:09:30,039 half and ten, and they went under forty six and 162 00:09:30,080 --> 00:09:34,120 a half, just hit once that opener. For seventy Miami 163 00:09:34,240 --> 00:09:37,159 minus five and five and a half, four seventy one 164 00:09:37,159 --> 00:09:40,279 Atlanta look Ahead one got hit, then two got hit 165 00:09:40,399 --> 00:09:46,600 as well. Cleveland plus seven Juice plus six and a 166 00:09:46,639 --> 00:09:49,679 half plus six plus five and a half. When it 167 00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:51,960 got down the four to four and a half, that's 168 00:09:52,000 --> 00:09:54,679 when you saw the San Francisco money start coming in. 169 00:09:55,679 --> 00:09:58,679 NFL lines are really tight, I thought you'd see some 170 00:09:58,759 --> 00:10:01,600 resistance prior to that, but it shows you a lot 171 00:10:01,639 --> 00:10:04,759 of steam on Cleveland and the under the look ahead 172 00:10:04,799 --> 00:10:06,759 was forty and a half. You're now looking at thirty 173 00:10:06,799 --> 00:10:09,759 six limit bets all the way down at half point 174 00:10:09,759 --> 00:10:14,120 increments four to seventy six. Seattle minus seven was the 175 00:10:14,159 --> 00:10:17,600 look ahead. You're now looking at double digits. Another one 176 00:10:17,639 --> 00:10:21,279 that they didn't go straight the teaser protection. Instead they 177 00:10:21,320 --> 00:10:25,840 were getting limit bet hit up half point increments, much 178 00:10:25,919 --> 00:10:30,360 different situation. Finally, for eighty LA minus eight and a 179 00:10:30,399 --> 00:10:34,799 half and nine, that's when you saw raider money at ten. 180 00:10:34,960 --> 00:10:37,399 They took the ten when it got there, so the 181 00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:40,720 books know if they get too heavy, they know where 182 00:10:40,759 --> 00:10:43,840 they could get some that risk offloaded if they go 183 00:10:43,919 --> 00:10:47,159 to ten with LA chargers. Keep your eye on that number. 184 00:10:47,399 --> 00:10:49,960 And they also went under forty three and a half 185 00:10:50,039 --> 00:10:53,039 look ahead forty two and a half and forty one 186 00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:55,279 and a half, So a lot of under money there. 187 00:10:55,440 --> 00:10:59,759 That's the steam report as of Wednesday morning. All right, thanks, 188 00:11:00,039 --> 00:11:02,720 and then enjoyed the weekend too. Hope you make some money. 189 00:11:03,120 --> 00:11:05,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, that is the plan. We want to make some money, 190 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:09,279 eat some food, and enjoy this feast week Marco D'Angelo 191 00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:13,039 by far our best segment as a whole, because I've 192 00:11:13,039 --> 00:11:16,919 been bringing down the averages in the bass bet department. 193 00:11:17,200 --> 00:11:21,279 The Barking Dogs have been awesome. Last week's Barking Dogs 194 00:11:21,879 --> 00:11:25,639 great once again. This week got me a little nervous 195 00:11:25,679 --> 00:11:28,799 here because I'm considering using the other side of this 196 00:11:28,879 --> 00:11:29,919 one in Survivor. 197 00:11:31,279 --> 00:11:33,440 Speaker 4: Yeah, Kelly, and you know what last week and this 198 00:11:33,519 --> 00:11:36,919 is a good question for Ace. You know, we talk 199 00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:40,799 about in the NFL, the old adage has been if 200 00:11:40,799 --> 00:11:43,960 you pick the winner, you picked the point spread winner. 201 00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:47,799 I've been doing this a long long time, guys, you know, 202 00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:51,039 forty six years. I don't remember a Sunday in the 203 00:11:51,159 --> 00:11:56,120 NFL like last Sunday where there was as many teams 204 00:11:56,240 --> 00:12:01,080 win but not yeah, yeah, yeah. The point spread came 205 00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:03,840 into play last week. And you know, I talked to 206 00:12:04,679 --> 00:12:07,200 you know on Monday with you know, Chuck Esposito from 207 00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:10,720 Station's Casinos here in Vegas, and you know we'll ask 208 00:12:10,759 --> 00:12:14,200 John Murray that same question. I don't remember it ever happening. 209 00:12:14,279 --> 00:12:16,480 And I need you're going to see of an adjustment, 210 00:12:16,960 --> 00:12:19,879 you know, from the books with the lines, so maybe 211 00:12:19,879 --> 00:12:22,080 there will be some value with some of these favorites 212 00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:24,440 this week, but this is one I don't think so, 213 00:12:24,639 --> 00:12:27,759 because is there a team in the NFL right now 214 00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:31,240 that the stock is any higher than the La Rams. 215 00:12:31,440 --> 00:12:34,399 Everybody is in love with them. That is their super 216 00:12:34,399 --> 00:12:38,919 Bowl team from the NFC, because we've seen the other 217 00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:43,360 candidates take steps backwards. Philadelphia losing last week, we saw 218 00:12:43,480 --> 00:12:49,080 Detroit lose some games recently. Nobody has taken that forefront 219 00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:52,960 that is the Rams to lose. I think it's too 220 00:12:53,039 --> 00:12:58,039 much public perception has them. They've coming off three big 221 00:12:58,200 --> 00:13:01,240 wins in a row. You look what they've done. Go 222 00:13:01,320 --> 00:13:04,799 back three weeks ago they played the forty nine ers. 223 00:13:04,799 --> 00:13:07,159 That was a huge revenge game for them. It was 224 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:10,159 a key division game and if you remember they lost 225 00:13:10,159 --> 00:13:13,080 that first meeting that Thursday night game when the forty 226 00:13:13,159 --> 00:13:16,360 nine ers were decimated with injuries and somehow the forty 227 00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:19,039 nine ers beat them. That was a big game. Then 228 00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:23,279 two weeks ago they played Seattle. That was a battle 229 00:13:23,279 --> 00:13:26,039 for first place. The two were tied. They got to 230 00:13:26,159 --> 00:13:28,720 win twenty one to nineteen in that game. It's a 231 00:13:28,759 --> 00:13:33,720 misleading final because Seattle actually outgained them four fourteen to 232 00:13:33,759 --> 00:13:37,679 two forty nine. And then last week where some people, 233 00:13:37,679 --> 00:13:39,919 and I was one of them, thought maybe that's where 234 00:13:39,960 --> 00:13:42,240 they come back to earth. Well, it was a Sunday 235 00:13:42,360 --> 00:13:45,679 night primetime game and they showed up. They showed up 236 00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:48,879 in a big way. They demolished Tampa Bay thirty four 237 00:13:48,919 --> 00:13:52,200 to seven. So now is anybody gonna want to step 238 00:13:52,240 --> 00:13:54,240 in front of them? No, And that's why you're seeing 239 00:13:54,240 --> 00:13:57,399 this line as high as it is and seeing it 240 00:13:57,440 --> 00:14:01,720 creep over the mark ten point mark. John Q. Public 241 00:14:01,879 --> 00:14:05,639 watched that game Sunday night. They also watched a Monday 242 00:14:05,679 --> 00:14:09,799 night game and saw Carolina lose to San Francisco. And 243 00:14:09,879 --> 00:14:12,879 we've talked about this before. You've got I call it 244 00:14:12,919 --> 00:14:16,679 the ABC theory. The public's gonna look and see that 245 00:14:16,840 --> 00:14:20,279 Carolina just lost to San Francisco. They're also gonna look 246 00:14:20,320 --> 00:14:22,759 and see the Rams, just a couple of weeks ago 247 00:14:22,879 --> 00:14:26,240 beat San Francisco. So if the forty nine ers can 248 00:14:26,240 --> 00:14:29,720 beat Carolina and the Rams can beat San Francisco, this 249 00:14:29,799 --> 00:14:32,919 is a no brainer. Right, Carolina gets blown out. No, 250 00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:36,440 that's not the way it works. In handicapping, Rams are 251 00:14:36,559 --> 00:14:40,159 filling fat and sass either traveling east to play a 252 00:14:40,240 --> 00:14:43,759 Carolina team. That's gonna be very easy to look past. 253 00:14:44,440 --> 00:14:47,679 They've got a division game against Arizona next week, then 254 00:14:47,759 --> 00:14:52,840 followed by two key NFC games against Detroit and Seattle. 255 00:14:54,039 --> 00:14:59,120 This is absolutely the flat spot on their card, their schedule, 256 00:14:59,200 --> 00:15:03,320 and you're laying in inflated number in a potential trap. 257 00:15:03,559 --> 00:15:07,320 I'm gonna go ahead and take Carolina plus the points 258 00:15:07,320 --> 00:15:10,559 here Rams get a score. As VR says, I don't 259 00:15:10,679 --> 00:15:13,480 know if they're gonna be able to get the outright upset, 260 00:15:13,639 --> 00:15:16,600 but I will have just a little sprinkle. Remember when 261 00:15:16,679 --> 00:15:19,879 we gave you Carolina in a spot similar to this 262 00:15:20,000 --> 00:15:22,879 against the Green Bay Packers, and what happened? 263 00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:28,120 Speaker 1: Victory out That's right, twelve and a half point road underdogs. 264 00:15:28,159 --> 00:15:31,399 They sure did all right. I'm gonna be looking for 265 00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:36,399 a new survivor. Pick VR. You like arguably one of 266 00:15:36,440 --> 00:15:38,799 the worst teams in the NFL. I don't know if 267 00:15:38,799 --> 00:15:42,000 they're the worst. Are they the worst in your power ratings? 268 00:15:42,360 --> 00:15:45,159 Speaker 2: Second worst? Second worst? Raiders are the worst? 269 00:15:45,279 --> 00:15:48,600 Speaker 3: Raiders are the worst, They're the second worst as the 270 00:15:48,639 --> 00:15:52,200 Tennessee tone. But the point spread is the great equalizer. 271 00:15:52,279 --> 00:15:55,120 We know that, and that's why a team like Tennessee 272 00:15:55,159 --> 00:15:57,879 that's one in ten straight up is five and six 273 00:15:57,919 --> 00:16:00,240 against the spread not that Yeah. 274 00:16:00,320 --> 00:16:01,799 Speaker 2: One game below five hundred. 275 00:16:02,639 --> 00:16:04,799 Speaker 3: So they do a really good job in the NFL 276 00:16:04,879 --> 00:16:08,399 of pricing these teams, where even arguably the worst team 277 00:16:08,440 --> 00:16:10,440 in the NFL, if you've been fading them all year, 278 00:16:10,919 --> 00:16:13,679 unless you got down in good numbers, you've made very 279 00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:17,159 little money doing it. That's the bottom line. And here's 280 00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:19,360 the one thing I'm going to tell you about Tennessee. Again, 281 00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:23,679 there's not all that to defend when offensively and defensively, 282 00:16:23,879 --> 00:16:27,720 there's only two or three teams worsting you statistically see 283 00:16:27,759 --> 00:16:31,679 there are teams worse than them offensively and defensively. Okay, 284 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:35,399 with that said, they've had the number one toughest schedule, 285 00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:38,799 so teams that have had easier schedules have had have 286 00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:43,240 worse stats offensively and worse stats defensively that had had 287 00:16:43,320 --> 00:16:46,360 an easier go of it. This week, they're facing a 288 00:16:46,480 --> 00:16:51,159 defense in Jacksonville that's in the bottom eight in the NFL, 289 00:16:51,679 --> 00:16:57,240 and even their offense is mid tier, they're barely cracking 290 00:16:57,480 --> 00:17:00,919 top sixteen. So they're not going up against like a 291 00:17:01,039 --> 00:17:06,000 juggernaut in Jacksonville this week. And with Tennessee, they've shown 292 00:17:06,119 --> 00:17:09,200 a lot of effort. Look over the last three weeks. Yeah, 293 00:17:09,240 --> 00:17:13,079 they've lost those games all by one score, and they 294 00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:16,279 covered all three of those. That's a team that's giving 295 00:17:16,319 --> 00:17:19,119 you some effort down the stretch. And do they have 296 00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:21,920 something to play for over those last three games? Yes, 297 00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:25,759 they were home games. They haven't won at home yet 298 00:17:25,880 --> 00:17:30,119 this season. They want to get that monkey off their back. 299 00:17:31,279 --> 00:17:33,880 I think they're gonna give us effort again, especially against 300 00:17:33,880 --> 00:17:37,880 a division opponent in Jacksonville who's. 301 00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:38,720 Speaker 2: Owned them of late. 302 00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:41,400 Speaker 3: I mean, Jacksonville has won five of the last six. 303 00:17:42,279 --> 00:17:46,200 But again, when you look at Jacksonville not winning by 304 00:17:46,279 --> 00:17:49,720 margin only one week that was against the Chargers. If 305 00:17:49,720 --> 00:17:54,880 you look over their last five wins, okay, only one 306 00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:59,400 time have they won by more than a score. So again, 307 00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:02,920 even they're getting w's, they're not doing it with margin. 308 00:18:03,319 --> 00:18:07,519 And to cover double seven point spread, that's what you 309 00:18:07,599 --> 00:18:10,759 need to do. This one I did send out to subscribers. 310 00:18:11,319 --> 00:18:14,400 I'm on Tennessee. We took them at a touchdown plus seven. 311 00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:17,519 I would buy it up, lay up the one twenty 312 00:18:17,519 --> 00:18:20,200 five at six and a half, but I think the 313 00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:22,240 public is gonna bet it up for you anyway. You 314 00:18:22,240 --> 00:18:25,200 should be able to get some sevens on them game day. 315 00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:28,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, you mentioned, there's gonna be a ton of public 316 00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:29,680 getting involved. 317 00:18:29,279 --> 00:18:31,200 Speaker 2: No disrespect. 318 00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:34,000 Speaker 3: They'll be chasing by Sunday what they lost Thursday, Friday 319 00:18:34,039 --> 00:18:34,599 and Saturday. 320 00:18:35,039 --> 00:18:37,160 Speaker 1: I don't know if they're gonna lose Thursday Friday because 321 00:18:37,160 --> 00:18:39,319 guess what, it has been really chalky. 322 00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:43,160 Speaker 3: Like, yeah, you're right, you're right, l But it's the parlays, 323 00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:44,920 the teasers, the crazy shit. 324 00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:47,839 Speaker 2: They could cash more tickets than they trash, but they 325 00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:49,880 find a way of losing money. That's the problem. 326 00:18:50,319 --> 00:18:54,839 Speaker 1: Bad risk management, bingo, bad risk management. That's one of 327 00:18:54,839 --> 00:18:57,039 the things we're trying to do here on bat On 328 00:18:57,119 --> 00:18:59,160 It wager talk dot Com. We're trying to make you 329 00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:02,480 guys better betters. Hopefully this play helps to become a 330 00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:04,759 better better. As I mentioned, I have the Dallas Cowboys 331 00:19:04,799 --> 00:19:08,000 last week, they looked awful very early on, and then 332 00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:11,359 here come the Cowboys and let the Eagles pewball over 333 00:19:11,400 --> 00:19:13,759 themselves in the second half. And that's basically what the 334 00:19:13,759 --> 00:19:17,119 Colts did at Arrowhead last week. They blew an eleven 335 00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:20,920 point lead, four straight three and outs and Daniel Jones 336 00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:24,039 eight of eighteen for eighty three yards in the second half. 337 00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:28,319 Did Daniel Jones turn into a pumpkin. Maybe we're gonna 338 00:19:28,319 --> 00:19:31,160 find out this weekend, but I do like the Houston 339 00:19:31,200 --> 00:19:36,559 Texans catching over a field goal into Indianapolis. CJ Stroud 340 00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:40,000 returning this week, if you guys remember he did have 341 00:19:40,039 --> 00:19:43,599 that concussion against the Broncos. But whether it's Davis Mills 342 00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:47,240 or CJ. Stroud, it doesn't matter. Davis Mills got Houston 343 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:51,400 three straight wins, including that Thursday night home win over 344 00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:54,759 the Buffalo Bill, So this team has extra rest to 345 00:19:54,839 --> 00:19:58,839 prep for a series that they've won three straight in 346 00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:03,000 and it's been very closely contested over the last three seasons. 347 00:20:03,039 --> 00:20:05,400 Since twenty twenty two, they had a tie, a game 348 00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:08,839 decided by one John Murray games, do Land one, one 349 00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:11,920 game decided by two PREZ games do Land two, and 350 00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:15,359 one game decided by the most important number in the NFL, 351 00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:18,720 that is three points. Only one of those has been 352 00:20:18,759 --> 00:20:22,519 decided by four points, which still gets us within the 353 00:20:22,559 --> 00:20:25,920 cover here with Houston. But I think Houston has the 354 00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:31,359 ability here to win the football game again Indianapolis coming 355 00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:35,160 off that road overtime loss in Kansas City, Jonathan Taylor 356 00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:39,200 was held to just fifty eight rushing yards. I like 357 00:20:39,279 --> 00:20:42,319 this Houston defense. I think that they are going to 358 00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:44,000 come to play. So give me the plus four and 359 00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:47,880 a half and give me a sprinkle on that money line. 360 00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:52,640 Marco DiAngelo, We've been sprinkling all season long in the 361 00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:58,079 Deli thirty seven and twenty two on the season. You 362 00:20:58,519 --> 00:21:03,240 and VR agree here you're both going against my Denver Broncos. 363 00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:06,799 Speaker 4: Yeah, Kelly, and you know, sorry for doubling up on 364 00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:09,519 a game, but it's in a different category. And remember 365 00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:14,200 we lost four NFL games on Thursday and Friday, so 366 00:21:14,799 --> 00:21:17,160 we had to come up with it. And this is 367 00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:20,240 a play I really like. On paper, it looks ugly 368 00:21:20,279 --> 00:21:23,720 as hell to take Washington, but you've got to trust 369 00:21:23,799 --> 00:21:26,680 the process. And the process for me is how many 370 00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:30,640 times do I tell you about bye weeks. Both teams 371 00:21:30,839 --> 00:21:33,200 are coming off a bye, but I always tell you 372 00:21:33,279 --> 00:21:37,400 if you go into a buye on a winning note, 373 00:21:37,599 --> 00:21:40,720 and I think winning eight in a row would qualify, 374 00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:44,160 it's a momentum stopper, I feel. And if you go 375 00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:48,200 into the bye week on a bad note, Washington's lost 376 00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:51,240 six in a row, You're gonna use that time and 377 00:21:51,599 --> 00:21:56,119 make adjustments, make changes, fix what's wrong. That means I'm 378 00:21:56,160 --> 00:22:01,160 gonna look at Washington in this game go back to Denver. 379 00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:05,079 Though not only are they going into the buy, they 380 00:22:05,079 --> 00:22:07,799 went into that buy fat and sassy. Not because they 381 00:22:07,839 --> 00:22:11,440 won eight in a row, because the last game that 382 00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:16,319 they played was against Kansas City and winning that game 383 00:22:17,279 --> 00:22:21,759 gave them an absolute stranglehold on the AFC West. They 384 00:22:21,799 --> 00:22:25,079 got a two game lead over the Chargers, who right 385 00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:29,559 now are up and down. And the team that you 386 00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:32,599 still fear the most even though they were in third 387 00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:35,480 place was the Kansas City Chiefs. You now have a 388 00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:38,640 three and a half game lead. Talk about being fat 389 00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:42,079 and sassy and sitting around patting yourself on the back 390 00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:45,240 for two weeks and reading your press clippings. I am 391 00:22:45,279 --> 00:22:50,200 going to look for Washington at home in a primetime game. 392 00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:54,559 And what do I always tell you teams that are 393 00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:57,279 dismal one the season? And it's been a nightmare of 394 00:22:57,319 --> 00:23:00,480 a season for Washington because there was such high hope's 395 00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:04,559 in Washington year two with Jaden Daniels after his rookie campaign, 396 00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:07,559 the run that they made in the playoffs last year. 397 00:23:07,839 --> 00:23:10,599 To be sitting where they are, why would they come 398 00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:11,039 to play? 399 00:23:11,079 --> 00:23:11,240 Speaker 3: Well? 400 00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:13,359 Speaker 4: What do I tell you teams that don't have anything 401 00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:16,240 to play? For what are the two times they're gonna play. 402 00:23:16,519 --> 00:23:19,519 They're gonna play a division game where they can play spoiler, 403 00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:23,880 or it's gonna be a standalone primetime game. There's another 404 00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:27,519 part of trust the process. Everything adds up for me 405 00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:32,680 to take Washington plus the points I'll take them. Don't 406 00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:34,960 be surprised if they win this game. Out right, Kelly, 407 00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:37,519 I'll have a little one of sprinkle as well for sure. 408 00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:41,839 Speaker 1: Ooh, all right, maybe I need to start looking towards Washington. 409 00:23:41,839 --> 00:23:44,119 If both of you guys like it, and if both 410 00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:46,079 of these guys like to play. It's done very well 411 00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:48,319 here on Better not only the NFL edition, but the 412 00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:52,119 college football edition as well. They've also done really well 413 00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:54,799 on their best bets there. I'm gonna let you go first, 414 00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:57,400 but let me know what's going on over at wager 415 00:23:57,519 --> 00:24:00,839 talk dot com before you get into this week's best bet. 416 00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:03,720 Speaker 3: Yeah. Like I said, I'm really excited about this weekend, 417 00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:06,519 even being here as long as I have. There's a 418 00:24:06,559 --> 00:24:10,279 couple times of the year, super Bowl, the first four 419 00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:14,319 days of March, Madness, Thanksgiving weekend because of all the 420 00:24:14,599 --> 00:24:18,640 action and just the nostalgia growing up in it, and 421 00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:22,039 there's just so much betting value. I'll have my college 422 00:24:22,079 --> 00:24:25,640 football package off, my NFL package up five percents coming 423 00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:29,759 this week. I already gave you in college football five 424 00:24:29,799 --> 00:24:34,920 percent on bed on it and yeah, college basketball throughout 425 00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:39,400 the week, NBA and bowl games coming up ahead. It's 426 00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:41,559 just a really good time to jump on board. But 427 00:24:41,599 --> 00:24:43,720 again over the next couple of days, we will be 428 00:24:43,839 --> 00:24:46,920 firing NFL and college football. 429 00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:48,200 Speaker 2: Make sure you jump on board. 430 00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:53,160 Speaker 3: Up over one hundred units in college football and doing 431 00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:55,799 well in NFL as well. Right now on the show 432 00:24:55,839 --> 00:25:00,880 twenty two thirteen and one in the NFL plus percent. 433 00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:04,079 Speaker 2: I'll take it and for my best bet. 434 00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:07,279 Speaker 3: Till I gotta do it. This I released through subscribers, 435 00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:09,000 and I did my job. This is what I get 436 00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:11,000 paid for. This is what they pay me for. I 437 00:25:11,079 --> 00:25:15,519 got them down on Cleveland plus seven all right over 438 00:25:15,559 --> 00:25:19,440 the forty nine ers. Why because I was very confident 439 00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:22,240 that that line was going to drop. In fact, so 440 00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:25,079 confident that I told them at six and a half 441 00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:28,599 by the half a point up the minus one twenty five. 442 00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:33,279 Because I already had that real strong feeling we probably 443 00:25:33,279 --> 00:25:35,839 could have paid one thirty for it because it was 444 00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:38,359 going to get down this low. I didn't think it 445 00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:39,920 would get down to as low as four and a half, 446 00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:41,319 which some shops it got. 447 00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:43,319 Speaker 2: To before it bounced back a little bit. 448 00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:48,519 Speaker 3: And here's why the market overreacted and the wise guys 449 00:25:48,559 --> 00:25:52,039 overreacted as well. To Sanders's first game when he came 450 00:25:52,079 --> 00:25:56,880 in against Baltimore, sixteen attempts for completions pass the rating 451 00:25:56,880 --> 00:25:58,039 of thirteen point five. 452 00:25:58,119 --> 00:25:59,359 Speaker 2: Okay, so the. 453 00:25:59,319 --> 00:26:02,160 Speaker 3: Market's going to overreact to what they saw last They 454 00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:04,599 made the Raiders favored, all right, the worst team in 455 00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:07,039 the NFL. Not only did they make the Raiders favored, 456 00:26:07,079 --> 00:26:11,240 but myself and a lot of other so called plus 457 00:26:11,279 --> 00:26:15,839 ev betters push that lineup on the Raiders, steaming them. 458 00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:19,839 And what happened. Sanders goes out there eighty seven point 459 00:26:19,839 --> 00:26:25,000 one rating and twenty of eleven passing, not bad, one interception, 460 00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:27,480 one touchdown. They get the job done. They win by 461 00:26:27,519 --> 00:26:28,279 two touchdowns. 462 00:26:28,319 --> 00:26:29,039 Speaker 2: As dogs. 463 00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:32,079 Speaker 3: Usually I would want to back off them here, you 464 00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:35,359 would think, Okay, now there's going to be that overreaction. 465 00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:36,799 Speaker 2: Not the case. 466 00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:39,359 Speaker 3: Why because you have the San Francisco forty nine ers 467 00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:44,680 come into town who just look phenomenal on National TV 468 00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:49,359 on Monday night, shutting down Carolina who If you remember, 469 00:26:49,839 --> 00:26:54,599 Carolina was getting some money on Monday night, so there 470 00:26:54,599 --> 00:26:57,720 were betters that had to sit through that watching San 471 00:26:57,799 --> 00:27:02,759 Francisco getting that cover. When I look at the Niners, 472 00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:07,079 you look at their splits, they appear to be better 473 00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:09,480 on the road than at home. That doesn't make any 474 00:27:09,599 --> 00:27:13,799 sense at all. They should regress more towards the mean. 475 00:27:14,079 --> 00:27:16,720 Their home record should be better than their road record. 476 00:27:17,039 --> 00:27:19,480 Then I look at the splits for Cleveland. This is 477 00:27:19,519 --> 00:27:22,799 where I want to back them, right at home, where 478 00:27:22,839 --> 00:27:26,279 they've won double the amount of games and lost less 479 00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:29,079 than they have on the road. I look at also 480 00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:33,400 cleveland tough strength of schedule, top ten strength of schedule, 481 00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:36,960 tougher than San Francisco's, and have a top fifteen defense. 482 00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:39,799 When I'm catching points at home, that's what I want, 483 00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:43,640 a defense that could keep me in the game. You 484 00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:46,319 look over the last two weeks, Cleveland continues to give 485 00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:49,880 us effort. In fact, over the last three weeks they 486 00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:55,559 haven't been outscored by more than one score. I just 487 00:27:55,599 --> 00:27:58,279 think this is too many points for San Francisco coming 488 00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:02,519 off back to back meaningful games. Now going to Cleveland 489 00:28:02,599 --> 00:28:06,200 out a conference, I think they get caught here. Probably 490 00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:08,759 will squeeze out a field goal win, but don't be 491 00:28:08,799 --> 00:28:13,200 surprised if Cleveland catches them again. San Francisco top fifteen offense, 492 00:28:13,279 --> 00:28:18,480 top fifteen defense, Respectable strength of schedule, but starting to 493 00:28:18,559 --> 00:28:23,079 get a little bit too much hype the narratives starting 494 00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:27,720 to outpace their actual production. And when that's the case, 495 00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:30,160 I see value on the dog. So I'm gonna take 496 00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:34,000 Cleveland still at this adjusted number from what we got 497 00:28:34,039 --> 00:28:35,640 down on as the best bet. 498 00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:39,960 Speaker 1: All right, Marco has been giving you guys team totals, 499 00:28:40,079 --> 00:28:42,480 and you guys have been complaining about it in the 500 00:28:42,759 --> 00:28:49,839 comments section, So guess what he's gonna do this week, Marco, 501 00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:52,359 before you give out your team total, please let everybody 502 00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:55,519 know what is going on over at wager talk dot 503 00:28:55,519 --> 00:28:56,200 com this week. 504 00:28:56,680 --> 00:28:58,599 Speaker 4: All right, well, it's Thanksgiving week and we got a 505 00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:02,839 Thanksgiving special for every buddy. The Weekend Warrior is still available. 506 00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:08,160 You guys love that. It's our biggest selling product every weekend, 507 00:29:08,359 --> 00:29:11,160 and why not. You get your favorite handicappers. College and 508 00:29:11,279 --> 00:29:15,559 NFL football plays Saturday and Sunday, and if they have 509 00:29:15,599 --> 00:29:18,519 a Monday night play you get it as well, all 510 00:29:18,559 --> 00:29:21,880 for forty nine dollars. But this week why do that. 511 00:29:22,079 --> 00:29:25,799 There's football every day. You got football Thursday through Monday, 512 00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:28,759 but not only football, you got all kinds of basketball, 513 00:29:28,839 --> 00:29:34,640 hockey seven days this week, only six seven, just sixty 514 00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:38,960 seven dollars. You can get seven day subscription all plays 515 00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:42,240 from your favorite handicapper and that includes if they have 516 00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:45,519 any five percent plays. Those five percent plays sell for 517 00:29:45,599 --> 00:29:49,920 thirty five dollars themselves, that's half of the subscription. And 518 00:29:50,279 --> 00:29:53,160 this week I've got a five percent play going. My 519 00:29:53,279 --> 00:29:56,119 five percent plays have been on a roll. We have 520 00:29:56,200 --> 00:30:00,119 gone with those plays thirty eight and sixteen after last 521 00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:04,039 week's winner on TCU, So head on over to wager Talk, 522 00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:08,119 jump on board. And not only are we winning in football, 523 00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:11,359 but over the last twenty seven days, forty one and 524 00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:15,599 twenty one for our clients, for our profit of over 525 00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:21,200 fifty two hundred dollars, and we're keep it rolling. And 526 00:30:21,279 --> 00:30:24,720 speaking of rolling, let's keep these team totals rolling. And 527 00:30:24,759 --> 00:30:28,319 it's been a simple formula that has worked what I've 528 00:30:28,359 --> 00:30:31,160 done with these and we're going for four in a 529 00:30:31,279 --> 00:30:34,680 row on these team totals. The recipe for success is this, 530 00:30:35,519 --> 00:30:39,359 we find a good offense that's coming off a loss, 531 00:30:39,599 --> 00:30:43,720 that's facing a team with a mediocre to bad defense, 532 00:30:44,079 --> 00:30:47,680 and this week that team is the Buffalo Bills. They're 533 00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:50,920 coming off of awesome Thursday Night football. They have a 534 00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:55,519 good offense, and they're facing my Pittsburgh Steelers that has 535 00:30:55,599 --> 00:31:00,200 been torched by good passing teams. Throw in, Buffalo's had 536 00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:03,039 three extra days to prepare gives them an added edge. 537 00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:07,240 Pittsburgh is supposed to have Aaron Rodgers back this week. 538 00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:11,000 That would make you think that Pittsburgh would be able 539 00:31:11,039 --> 00:31:13,039 to move the ball better than he did last week 540 00:31:13,039 --> 00:31:18,160 against Chicago. So if Pittsburgh is moving the football, that 541 00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:23,039 means Buffalo's got to keep moving the football to answer scores. 542 00:31:23,240 --> 00:31:27,240 So Buffalo won't take their foot off the gas. Buffalo 543 00:31:28,039 --> 00:31:31,400 the offense has been their own worst enemy in the 544 00:31:31,480 --> 00:31:35,359 last couple losses. They've turned the ball over nine times 545 00:31:35,359 --> 00:31:38,519 in the last three games. But they're not facing a 546 00:31:38,559 --> 00:31:42,519 tenacious defense this week. Last week they faced Houston's defense, 547 00:31:42,599 --> 00:31:46,880 one of the better defenses in the NFL. Pittsburgh's is not. 548 00:31:47,599 --> 00:31:50,680 I see Buffalo getting thirty four or more points in 549 00:31:50,759 --> 00:31:53,759 this one. I'm seeing a team total of twenty six 550 00:31:53,799 --> 00:31:56,000 and a half. There's only one way I can go 551 00:31:56,079 --> 00:31:59,519 with this one, and it is Buffalo team total over. 552 00:32:00,279 --> 00:32:04,640 And if you're worried about weather conditions or whatever in Pittsburgh, 553 00:32:04,799 --> 00:32:07,920 this is Buffalo. There is at worst weather conditions than 554 00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:10,880 a team ever plays in than in Buffalo, So don't 555 00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:14,440 worry about any cold weather, windy or anything like that. 556 00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:18,480 It'll be okay. Let's take over team total for Buffalo. 557 00:32:19,359 --> 00:32:22,880 Speaker 1: All right. I've been absolutely getting my ass kicked on 558 00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:25,440 these best bets, so this week I'm just going to 559 00:32:25,519 --> 00:32:28,200 try not to overthink it. We're just gonna go with it, 560 00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:30,559 and we're going to bet against the worst power rated 561 00:32:30,559 --> 00:32:34,319 team in the league. I said last week, who went 562 00:32:34,440 --> 00:32:37,079 the lay points with the Las Vegas Raiders? And the 563 00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:40,839 Raiders did what the Raiders do and they sucked once again. 564 00:32:41,279 --> 00:32:45,799 Gino Smith sacked ten times. The offensive line is beyond 565 00:32:45,839 --> 00:32:49,119 banged up. Their last and EPA per play number thirtieth 566 00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:52,440 in success rate number twenty ninth in EPA per drop back, 567 00:32:52,759 --> 00:32:57,160 and last in EPA per rush attempt. Outside of Max Crosby, 568 00:32:57,480 --> 00:33:02,359 I think this Raiders team has shown zero signs of 569 00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:06,000 being a competent football team, at least since the Bears game. 570 00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:09,440 That was about the time it looked like they mailed 571 00:33:09,480 --> 00:33:12,039 it in. So what did they do after losing their 572 00:33:12,039 --> 00:33:14,119 fifth straight game last week as a three and a 573 00:33:14,119 --> 00:33:16,799 half point home favor. Oh cool, they fired Chip Kelly 574 00:33:16,839 --> 00:33:21,200 and Bob Bicknell. Pete Carroll has lost five straight games 575 00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:24,720 for the first time since he was the head coach 576 00:33:25,319 --> 00:33:28,440 for the nineteen ninety four Jets. The Raiders have a 577 00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:30,960 two to nine or worst start in consecutive seasons for 578 00:33:31,079 --> 00:33:34,839 just the second time in franchise history. This team is down, 579 00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:40,039 and they are down bad, averaging thirteen points per game 580 00:33:40,079 --> 00:33:43,559 against John Harbaugh's defense. The best part about the Los 581 00:33:43,559 --> 00:33:47,079 Angeles Chargers They're coming off a buy and had lost 582 00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:51,359 at Jacksonville before then. They've now had time to fix 583 00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:55,039 some of those offensive line injuries, and I think getting 584 00:33:55,200 --> 00:34:00,359 that team ready to play a big time divisional game. Harball, 585 00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:02,160 you know what he does in these divisional games, That's right. 586 00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:05,759 He puts his foot on the gas. And that's why 587 00:34:05,759 --> 00:34:07,839 I don't mind laying nine and a half here. I 588 00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:11,320 know VR says the spread is the great equalizer, but 589 00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:14,280 I do not see this Raiders team keeping this even 590 00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:17,360 remotely close. I think this is an absolute nutter boat 591 00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:18,960 raced by the Chargers. I know I said I was 592 00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:21,599 gonna use thinking about using the Rams and Survivor. I'm 593 00:34:21,679 --> 00:34:25,400 using the Chargers and all of my Survivor plays this week. 594 00:34:26,039 --> 00:34:28,800 Give me the Chargers minus nine and a half as 595 00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:34,760 my best bet for NFL Week thirteen, Marco VR, let's 596 00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:36,239 hope that I can turn that around. I think I'm 597 00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:37,079 one and six. 598 00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:43,599 Speaker 2: My last seven pressure on yourself label best bet. 599 00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:47,840 Speaker 1: I know, but the Barking Dogs have just I'm looking 600 00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:50,039 for our right underdogs and they just like to win 601 00:34:50,079 --> 00:34:51,719 out right. So now I'm just gonna be a chalk 602 00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:53,840 eating weasel and see how that works out for me. 603 00:34:54,400 --> 00:34:56,119 Thank you to both of you, guys. I hope you 604 00:34:56,199 --> 00:35:00,679 have a wonderful weekend everyone with your friends and family. 605 00:35:01,039 --> 00:35:04,519 You guys did miss those Thanksgiving games. They're going to 606 00:35:04,599 --> 00:35:07,519 be right here Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Of course, we've 607 00:35:07,559 --> 00:35:10,440 got the Mega show College football NFL. I think they're 608 00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:12,320 going to have to Thanksgiving games. I'm not sure.