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<v Speaker 1>Hey, I'm Alex and this is the Token Metrics Daily

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<v Speaker 1>Pulse for Tuesday, February seventeenth. We've got a lot to

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<v Speaker 1>unpack today. Bitcoin's long term holders are showing some real strain.

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<v Speaker 1>Narratives are getting absolutely hammered across the board, and there's

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<v Speaker 1>exact before we dive in, a quick word from our sponsor.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, let's get into it. Only one corner of

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<v Speaker 1>crypto that's actually in the green. Let's dig in. Here's

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<v Speaker 1>what you need to know right now. Bitcoin's long term holders,

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<v Speaker 1>the people who've been holding for years, the ones we

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<v Speaker 1>usually think of as the bedrock of the market, they're

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<v Speaker 1>starting to sell on chain data is flagging fifty four

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<v Speaker 1>thousand as the next major support level if we break

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<v Speaker 1>below sixty five thousand, and across the entire crypto market,

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<v Speaker 1>only one narrative is actually up this week. One that's

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<v Speaker 1>prediction markets. Everything else is bleeding. Bitcoin sitting around sixty

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<v Speaker 1>seven thousand, eight hundred, down about one point four percent

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<v Speaker 1>on the day. Ethereum's at one thousand dollars dollars nine

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<v Speaker 1>hundred and sixty seven, basically flat. Solana's holding around eighty

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<v Speaker 1>five dollars total market cap is two point four trillion

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<v Speaker 1>dollars dollars and we're in full risk off mode. Bitcoin

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<v Speaker 1>dominance is holding steady at fifty six point four percent,

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<v Speaker 1>which tells you alts aren't catching any bids either. Volume

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<v Speaker 1>is moderate at ninety five billion dollars in twenty four

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<v Speaker 1>hour trading. DeFi total value locked is flat at about

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<v Speaker 1>ninety six billion dollars. Nothing's moving much, but nothing's moving

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<v Speaker 1>up either. All right, let's break down what's actually happening

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<v Speaker 1>in the market. First up, you know, Bitcoin's long term

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<v Speaker 1>holders are cracking. Look when I say long term holders,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm talking about the people who've been sitting on bitcoin

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<v Speaker 1>for years. They're the foundation, and right now on chain

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<v Speaker 1>data shows they're distributing instead of accumulating. That's a shift.

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<v Speaker 1>The February sell off has changed the behavior from buy

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<v Speaker 1>the dip to maybe this is the dip. Bitcoin's near

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<v Speaker 1>protocol sixty eight thousand, and the conviction layer underneath is thinning.

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<v Speaker 1>If we lose sixty five thousand on a daily close

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<v Speaker 1>the next the meaningful support cluster is down at fifty

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<v Speaker 1>four thousand. That's a lot of air between here and there.

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<v Speaker 1>If bitcoin reclaims seventy thousand US instead, this was just

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<v Speaker 1>profit taking. But if we keep sliding, that's a regime change. Second,

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<v Speaker 1>Ethereum's tokenized real world assets just hit seventeen billion dollars.

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<v Speaker 1>That's up nearly three hundred and fifteen percent year over year.

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<v Speaker 1>But here's the weird part. The RWA narrative tokens themselves

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<v Speaker 1>are down sixteen percent on the week. So the actual

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<v Speaker 1>assets on Ethereum are exploding in value, but the tokens

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<v Speaker 1>betting on the RWA story are getting crushed. It's like

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<v Speaker 1>watching real estate values climb while the r e iites tank.

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<v Speaker 1>The infrastructure is winning, the speculation on top of the

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<v Speaker 1>infrastructure is losing. For Ethereum bulls, this is actually the

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<v Speaker 1>most important chart right now. Seventeen billion dollars in real assets.

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<v Speaker 1>Choosing your chain is a stronger signal than any token price. Third,

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<v Speaker 1>Bitcoin just recoupled with tech stocks. For months, crypto bulls

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<v Speaker 1>were pointing to Bitcoin's decoupling as proof it was becoming

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<v Speaker 1>digital gold. That story just got rewritten. The correlation flipped positive,

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<v Speaker 1>which means Bitcoin is trading like a risk asset again,

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<v Speaker 1>not a hedge. And when risk off hits, the most

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<v Speaker 1>speculative stuff gets hit hardest. Memic coins are down sixteen

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<v Speaker 1>percent on the week. The AI narrative is even worse

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<v Speaker 1>at minus twenty three percent. The only thing in the

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<v Speaker 1>green prediction markets at plus one point nine percent. When

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<v Speaker 1>the only thing going up is people betting on outcomes,

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<v Speaker 1>that tells you something about conviction levels everywhere else. Fourth

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<v Speaker 1>DeFi lenders zero lend is shutting down after three years.

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<v Speaker 1>Their total value locked collapse ninety eight percent to six

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<v Speaker 1>point six million dollars. They got hacked, the chains they

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<v Speaker 1>launched on went quiet, and the lending margins couldn't sustain it.

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<v Speaker 1>This isn't a slow bleed. This is a protocol getting unplugged.

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<v Speaker 1>But here's the thing. AVE is sitting at twenty six

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<v Speaker 1>billion users in total value locked. The lesson isn't that

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<v Speaker 1>DeFi lending is broken. It's that DeFi has winner take

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<v Speaker 1>most dynamics. Being the fifth best lending protocol on the

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<v Speaker 1>third best chain is a death sentence. And finally, Polygon

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<v Speaker 1>just flipped ethereum in daily transaction fees. Sounds like a

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<v Speaker 1>layer two victory lap, right, But the driver is prediction markets,

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<v Speaker 1>not DeFi or NFTs. That's a narrow use case. Generating

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<v Speaker 1>outsized activity. Meanwhile, Steak in Shake, Yes, the burger chain

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<v Speaker 1>says bitcoin payments boosted same store sales dramatically over nine months.

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<v Speaker 1>They're even funneling crypto receipts into a corporate bitcoin reserve

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<v Speaker 1>and using it for employee bonuses. A fast food chain

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<v Speaker 1>running a bitcoin treasury stratch quick break. Here's a message

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<v Speaker 1>from our sponsor. All right, we're back now, let's continue

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<v Speaker 1>strategy in twenty twenty six. The adoption isn't coming from

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<v Speaker 1>where the VC is expected. It's coming from gamblers and cheeseburgers.

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<v Speaker 1>Let me be straight with you about what could go wrong. First,

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<v Speaker 1>long term holder distribution is accelerating when the diamond hands

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<v Speaker 1>start letting go, the bid underneath thins fast. If this

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<v Speaker 1>continues for another week, sixty five thousand becomes a trapdoor,

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<v Speaker 1>not a floor. Second, Bitcoin just recoupled with tech stocks

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<v Speaker 1>right as the risk off trade deepens. If you're holding

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<v Speaker 1>bitcoin as a hedge against equity volatility, that thesis is

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<v Speaker 1>currently broken. Any further, NASDAC weakness pulls crypto down with it.

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<v Speaker 1>And Third, every major narrative except prediction markets is down

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<v Speaker 1>double digits on the week when there's nowhere for capital

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<v Speaker 1>to rotate within crypto. It leaves crypto entirely stable. Coin

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<v Speaker 1>supply is at three hundred billion dollars, which is the

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<v Speaker 1>one bright spot, but that money is sitting, not deploying.

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<v Speaker 1>Watch for the Senate Banking Committee's Digital Asset Market Structure

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<v Speaker 1>votes sometime this week. A vote on market structure legislation

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<v Speaker 1>could reset the regulatory narrative for the entire sector. Also,

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<v Speaker 1>keep an eye on Glass Nodes Bitcoin market pulse for

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<v Speaker 1>week nine coming around February twenty third, after last week

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<v Speaker 1>showed bitcoin stalling at seventy thousand with overhead supply. The

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<v Speaker 1>next pulse will confirm whether long term holder distribution is

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<v Speaker 1>accelerating or stabilizing. If you got value from this episode,

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<v Speaker 1>do me a favor. Hit subscribe so you don't miss

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<v Speaker 1>tomorrow's market moves. And if you know someone who's trying

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<v Speaker 1>to make sense of crypto, send them this episode seriously,

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<v Speaker 1>just text it to them right now. I'm Alex. Remember

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<v Speaker 1>this isn't investment advice, just educational content. See you tomorrow,