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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fantasy Hockey Life, presented by fan Tracks. Here'shit Cues,

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your source of information and analysis to help you win

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your fantasy hockey league.

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Speaker 2: Bark Off has a step hit on stay lock.

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Speaker 1: Here's your hosts, Jesse Severe and Victor Nuno Fantasy Hockey.

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Speaker 2: Live once again. It is Jesse Severe, it is Victor Nuno.

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Victor Nuno VP ring side. That is how you doing today, Victor?

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Speaker 3: I'm good, Jesse. I am coming to everyone from a

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different location, so if I sound funny, ologies for that.

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But I'm down here in Arizona and I hain't spending

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some time with the family. I have a question for you, Jesse.

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You have to tell me if this is legitimate or not.

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I'm doing a puzzle with my daughter, and you know

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the way I always do puzzle is you frame the outside,

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you get the straight edges, you make a little outline.

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She know how big it is and where everything's going.

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She is. I must have asked her like twenty times

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and she still would like. She had this pile of

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like blue puzzle pieces and she was just trying to

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do this one little corner with hout that were all

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middle pieces. And I'm just like, what are you doing?

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Speaker 2: Is that?

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Speaker 3: Am I crazy? Is that the right way to do

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a puzzle? Or is this? Is she like onto something?

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I don't know? I was like, am I Am I wrong?

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Speaker 2: Here?

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Speaker 3: Isn't doesn't everybody do it that way?

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Speaker 2: I don't know.

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Speaker 3: Maybe I'm just maybe I'm just off my rocker.

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Speaker 2: I don't know, Victor. Listen, there is nothing in the

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world that I think I enjoy much more than sitting

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down and doing a nice one thousand piece puzzle. It's

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a very it's a simple man's thing to enjoy, Victor.

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I was literally doing a puzzle less than ten minutes

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ago as we speak, and for a good part of

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the evening. And I'm here to tell you, Victor, that

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as a parent, there are moments when you can really

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impact your child's life in a positive way, and you

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are onto one right now. You have to instill that

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there is only one true way to do a puzzle.

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You start with that outside and then usually I will

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try to get all the blue pieces, as you say,

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get them all together, do your blue section. That's great,

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but get the outside frame hemmed in first, Victor. Anything

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beyond that is just it's not civilization anymore.

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Speaker 3: Okay. See this is why we could be oh co

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host co podcast friends, because yeah, if you would have

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said anything different, I would have just hung up and

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never spoken to you again.

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Speaker 2: Sure I'm not a savage, oh boy. Yeah, I'm glad

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that we came to that conclusion because puzzling is a

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beautiful thing, and I'm glad that your children are taking

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to it as one does. Victor. We don't have a

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puzzle section yet on our discord, but maybe someday we will.

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I don't know how you would. It doesn't seem like

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a very social media friendly activity, which is maybe what

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makes it's so wonderful. But there are wonderful social medias

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and pretty much they're just our discord. That's it. Rest

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of social media's everywhere, in all forms are awful. So

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you should join it. And the good news is you

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can join it for free. You just hit us up

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and we'll give you a linking and pop in there

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talk fantasy hockey. There's a few hundred fantasy hockey people

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in there, just chatting it back and forth every day.

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Victor's asking for ideas. Sometimes people are asking each other

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questions and getting opinions and talking fantasy hockey. So hit

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us up Fantasyhockeylife at gmail dot com, buy email or

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Victor or myself on x at Fanhockey Life at Victor

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Nuno twelve. But wait, Victor, there's more tell them.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, there's lots more stuff if you want to help

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out the show and get some bonus content. Someone was

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just asking recently, where can I find good information about

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hit some blocks or prospects. They're not posted anywhere. You're right,

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my friend, they are not, and that's one of the

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reasons we created the Fantasy Hockey Life player cards so

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you can see all that great content and it is

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available only to the ultra lifers. So if you want

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to support the show, you can even try it out

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for a month. You can get all that good information.

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There's lots of other goodies too, like playing in the

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Tier Dynasty, like patron Cast, like Patron Priority Channel, and

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all kinds of cool extra bonus content getting someone on

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one help. So go over to Patreon dot com slash

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Fantasy Hockey Life if you're interested in that.

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Speaker 2: Yes, sir, Victor, we are going solo or going dual today.

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Right after this little break, I will explain what's going happening.

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Victor Unio, my friend. We are here today to talk

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about some of the evergreen questions, some of the fantasy

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philosophy type things. Just full disclosure, there were some different

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plans for this episode because of a poor lack of

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planning on my part. Essentially, he's in Arizona. He's not

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supposed to be doing this right now. He's very graciously

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back to help me out. But this is a good

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opportunity for us. The season is underway, but we can

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talk about some of the big fantasy questions and just

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go back and forth on them a little bit. Tonight, Victor,

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is that are you ready or is there anything about

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the Arizona night that is making you feel philosophical? Do

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you need to go out and be by a campfire?

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Why do we do this or what.

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Speaker 3: I don't know if anyone's ever been to Sedona, but

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this area of Arizona is actually quite spiritual. A lot

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of people say there's energy vortexs, so potentially that could

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fit in nicely. I do not always. I don't always

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feel those kinds of things, but when I'm here, I

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do feel like there's a special vibe. I'm not sure

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that I have spiritual experiences. Maybe I need a little

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more peote to experience those. But I do feel maybe

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a little extra philosophical being here, so I think it

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worked out really well. Jesse.

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Speaker 2: Wow, if Paote was in your future, Victor, I think

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the whole episode would take a turn that might be

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for the best. But yeah, we are going to have

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some discussion and i'd cueue up a few things. So

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I'm gonna take topic number one. Here'll introduce it, set

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it up a little bit, and we'll get Victor's take,

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and we'll get my take, and we'll just have a

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really good time going back and forth.

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Speaker 3: Here.

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Speaker 2: Here is my first topic, Victor, and it comes down

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philosophically to how much value is the critical element in

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how you select players, roster players, trade players, whatever like that.

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What I mean is this in the draft season, this

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is a hotter topic, but it's true all year round.

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There is the old adage in the well worn school

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of thought that says, any player is somebody won in

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your team if you can get them at the right value.

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If somebody slips, if a player who you don't even

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think is necessarily going to stay healthy, and the ADP

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for that player is number forty, and you can get

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them at number eighty. Come on, at some point, don't

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you have to take it? And that is I think

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an approach a lot of people been very successful with

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over the years. But I am here to tell you

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that it is not the only strategy that successful players

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over the years have used in a sense, because there

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is also the school of thought that says, get the

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players that you actually believe in, because the precision around

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who is actually a value sometimes can be misleading, and

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sometimes you're better off just saying, yeah, that guy's fallen

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and falling, that's fine, But this other player here, even

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though it's a quote, reach is better player. Okay, there

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are tell And I was really thinking about this because

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of I'm getting ready to go out to the Fantasy

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Baseball Conference first pitch Arizona'll also be in Arizona, other

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side of Arizona from you within a week here, and

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they're like the high stakes fantasy baseball players come there.

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And I remember hearing about a Fantasy high Stakes Baseball

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play or NFBC wins hundreds of thousands of dollars. He's

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won some national overall championships, and at one point he

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told somebody that he's drafted in twenty three players or

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whatever on his team, and he would bring a list

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of like forty guys to the auction. He wouldn't even

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bother really researching many more players than that, because he

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knew the value some of these guys were going to

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go out. He knew that they would drop into his range,

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and he didn't care that it didn't look like as

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good of a thing as other people will have. So

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where am I going with all this? I guess I'm

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looking for where you fall in the thought of do

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you have confidence in contrary valuations that are so strong

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that sometimes you're willing to thumb your nose at value,

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so to speak? Or you a guy who says that

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the smart money is always let the let the player

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fall to you, Let the player fall to you, and

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take what falls to you, and you will value. And

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when what do you think about all this? Victor? Am

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I making any sense? Do you need to stop and

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go dose up a little bit before you answer, but

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just to make sure this all makes sense what I'm

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saying right now?

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Speaker 3: No, I do think it makes sense. And I do

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think actually a couple of things you said are really important,

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and that is that valuations are often very flawed, and

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so you have to keep that in mind. I personally

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always like getting value. I think we talked about this

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a little bit on the Shares episode. I try not

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to get too attached to any players, although I certainly

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have my favorites. I think we all do, and I

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like to try to get them. But that's the thing

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is that if you're getting value, what is value? And

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is that correct? I think part of this also depends

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on what kind of player you are, because if you're

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a player who cares about trade value, then it doesn't

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just matter what you think, it matters what everyone else

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thinks too. So that guy you're talking about, I imagine

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he's not trade a lot of those players. He's probably

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just drafting them and sitting on them and sounds like

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it's working because he's winning money. But if you quote

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unquote reach on a lot of players, you might not

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be able to trade them if that's something that's of

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interest to you. Now, some people don't care, and they're

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just like, I'm going to sit on my team and

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I'm going to mind the wire or I'm gonna be

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right or whatever the case may be. And that's fine,

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but I think you have to bake that into the calculation.

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If you're someone who doesn't care they're your guys, and

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you are confident with your valuation, then you have to

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be prepared to understand that not everyone's going to agree

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with you. I think sometimes it's really tricky when you're

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talking about value. You have to really tier these guys,

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and sometimes it's really difficult comparing a veteran with a

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known floor and a younger player with potential upside. So

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those two might be here in the fifty point tier,

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but they have very different floors and ceilings, and the

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variability of the outcomes may be higher. So that's something

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else you really have to pay attention to. I try

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not to get stuck on my guys too much. I

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think that if that's known to your trading partner, they

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can really drive up the price and that can be

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a problem, and then you might have to overpay. And

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I think we talked about that on a previous episode two.

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You can certainly overpay, and that can be a good thing,

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but you can't overpay every time. At some point there's

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diminishing resources and you just can't do that. And I

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have done that in a couple of leaks where I've

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overpaid to get my guy, and then you just don't

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have as many resources to do anything else. So then

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you're stuck. Okay, I got my guy, but what else

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am I going to do now? And in one league

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in particular, I've run out of assets to acquire anyone else.

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I'm stuck with my team waiting for them to develop.

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There aren't really free agents or anyone else to sign,

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so I could maybe take on a contract or something,

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but that's pretty much all I can do. So you

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just have to make sure that you're not limiting yourself

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in terms of assets. But I think all this really

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comes down to, in my mind, and what you're talking

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about is having the right valuation of assets. And nobody's

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perfect with that. So you have to, I think, be

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a little bit flexible with what your valuation is, and

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I think that's where accepting value can be good. But

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also I think a blend of these two is what

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I'm trying to say, Jesse, is you have to have

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a little bit of being happy getting your guy, but

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also not being so dead set that you're willing to

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pay so much more than they're potentially worth. Like, at

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some point you just have to let go. Although I

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understand what you're saying about that guy who just brought

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a list of forty for a twenty eight man roster,

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like at some point the law of diminishing returns, a

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lot of those guys beyond a certain level just aren't

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worth it. And I think we'll touch on this in

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a later segment, but at some point you have to

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just say, I need to get one of these five guys.

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Maybe it doesn't matter which one, but I need one

247
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or maybe two of them, And you just say I'm

248
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willing to spend this much. But I think you have

249
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to go into it with that plan and making sure

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that you're sticking to it. Did that rambling make any

251
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sense or sparkle any other ideas for you?

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Speaker 2: No, yeah, it does make sense, And of course it's

253
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a continuum. There is a continuum here. The interesting thing

254
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about somebody going in and saying I know which guys

255
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I want for my team and I'm going to take

256
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them is that an extremely smart player and an extremely

257
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poor player both could do that. That could be the

258
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strate A cheve either one of them. You've got the

259
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guy who might wander into the draft and say I

260
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got the number one overall pick and dog on it.

261
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I am I'm taking our Timmy Pineren and you can't

262
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stop me. I'm a Rangers guy. I'm taking our Timmy

263
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Pineren number one overall and you can't get reason with him.

264
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That's somebody who just believes that's the right player. Now

265
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what if he is. I guess, never be too arrogant

266
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until everything goes on tape. But it's you have to

267
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have a certain amount of contrariness in your opinions, and

268
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then you have to decide how much you can actually

269
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beat the system on it. Now, when I say about

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that guy who brought in a very limited list, there's

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two things you pointed out. One very important one. One

272
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is that's a no trading league, so it really truly

273
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doesn't matter what anybody else thinks of your roster because

274
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there is no such thing as trading. And the other

275
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is that to get the big money, basically your team

276
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is stacked up against in rotisserie against a thousand other teams.

277
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All thousand teams are occurring SATs, and so if you

278
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have the same roster as everybody else, who everybody else

279
00:14:42,919 --> 00:14:45,039
considers to be a value, you're going to lose anyway.

280
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So really it does make sense in some ways that

281
00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:51,000
a very contrary set evaluations is going to be the

282
00:14:51,039 --> 00:14:56,279
only way to win. But yeah, I do. I traditionally

283
00:14:56,320 --> 00:14:59,879
have been a value drafter, but I do think that

284
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there is a logic sometimes to resisting a guy who

285
00:15:04,519 --> 00:15:06,840
keeps dropping and you're just tempted to know, like, how

286
00:15:06,879 --> 00:15:09,320
can this person's supposed to be going at fifty they're

287
00:15:09,360 --> 00:15:11,919
not gone at one hundred yet why not? Sometimes you

288
00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:15,399
know what, it's okay, it's okay not to take that person,

289
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even if they're at that point, especially if you have

290
00:15:18,159 --> 00:15:21,279
got like some existential question of is this player going

291
00:15:21,360 --> 00:15:23,559
to play this year or not? It's okay not to

292
00:15:23,559 --> 00:15:28,480
take them. It Valeri Nushushkin. If Valerie Nushushkin dropped to

293
00:15:29,360 --> 00:15:31,480
pick one hundred and fifty in a draft and it

294
00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:34,279
was a deep enough draft that like really still mattered

295
00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:37,480
this year, would I draft him? Probably not, because I

296
00:15:37,559 --> 00:15:40,600
just don't have any faith that anything good is going

297
00:15:40,679 --> 00:15:43,120
to happen there. And now there's probably some recent news

298
00:15:43,200 --> 00:15:46,919
that came out that you're gonna say actually has shed

299
00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:48,480
light on this whole thing, But I think right now

300
00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:51,240
it's just a whole lot of uncertainty. But Yeah, Victor,

301
00:15:51,360 --> 00:15:54,679
I what you say makes sense. I think like you,

302
00:15:54,840 --> 00:15:57,120
I'm trying to get in the middle of it a

303
00:15:57,120 --> 00:15:59,399
little bit, but I think sometimes I can be a

304
00:15:59,399 --> 00:16:02,039
little too low to value and I need to open

305
00:16:02,039 --> 00:16:05,840
my mind to some of the get your guys type strategy.

306
00:16:06,399 --> 00:16:09,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely, I think that that makes sense about the

307
00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:12,000
league that you were talking about with that guy, and

308
00:16:12,159 --> 00:16:14,480
if you're all drafting from the same pool and it's

309
00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:17,559
like Roto, it's one of those things too. It's like

310
00:16:17,559 --> 00:16:19,799
when you're playing a playoff pool, you have to be

311
00:16:19,840 --> 00:16:22,159
a little bit contraying. You can't just go with the

312
00:16:22,200 --> 00:16:25,320
safe because if everyone does the same thing like you're

313
00:16:25,679 --> 00:16:29,799
if everyone's picking the favorites, you're probably not gonna everyone's

314
00:16:29,799 --> 00:16:31,960
gonna pick apart that roster and you're not gonna win.

315
00:16:32,039 --> 00:16:34,679
So you need a little bit of that contrarian But

316
00:16:34,759 --> 00:16:37,080
at the same time, you also can't just be like, oh,

317
00:16:37,120 --> 00:16:39,559
I hate the Rangers. You're talking about the Rangers. I

318
00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:41,200
hate the Rangers, so I'm not taking any of them.

319
00:16:41,200 --> 00:16:42,919
And it's like a lot of good players. That's probably

320
00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:45,360
not a good idea if you're going to completely avoid

321
00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:48,320
certain guys for certain reasons, like at some point you

322
00:16:48,360 --> 00:16:51,200
just have to take a step back and accept, Okay,

323
00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:54,120
maybe I need to shift my evaluation. And Paneren, I

324
00:16:54,159 --> 00:16:57,159
think is a great example with just how different his

325
00:16:57,960 --> 00:17:00,279
seasons have been lately and how he's been shooting and

326
00:17:00,279 --> 00:17:02,559
scoring more like, sometimes you just have to be willing

327
00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:04,680
to change your mind on players and say, Okay, maybe

328
00:17:04,799 --> 00:17:07,359
things are different here, or maybe they're not and he's

329
00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:11,000
just shooting a ridiculous percentage. So really being critical with

330
00:17:11,079 --> 00:17:14,160
your evaluation and I think bouncing off other people and

331
00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:16,839
listening to podcasts like this and other people and really

332
00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:20,039
trying to understand it from different perspectives because we're all

333
00:17:20,279 --> 00:17:22,119
subject to our own bias and looking at it one

334
00:17:22,119 --> 00:17:25,319
way is generally not going to be the most helpful.

335
00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:30,079
Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure, for sure, Victor. Let's move on to

336
00:17:30,640 --> 00:17:35,640
the second great question I've got here, And I think

337
00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:38,119
this has come up organically in conversations that we've had

338
00:17:38,119 --> 00:17:41,200
in the past, but I am going to maybe flesh

339
00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:42,799
this out a little bit and have a little longer

340
00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:45,680
dive on it. You're a prospect guy, and we've talked

341
00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:47,839
about the funnel a lot, which of course is are

342
00:17:47,960 --> 00:17:50,559
the concept we talk about on the show where the

343
00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:54,240
range of outcomes for a guy is wider the earlier

344
00:17:54,279 --> 00:17:57,359
they are in their development, and as they develop and develop,

345
00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:01,319
the closer they get to their full performance level, the

346
00:18:01,400 --> 00:18:03,400
better of an idea you have of where they're actually

347
00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:05,200
going to settle in, whether they're really going to be

348
00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:08,079
a star, whether they're going to be a marginal player,

349
00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:10,119
whether they're not going to make it at all. You

350
00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:16,480
get that picture. And my question is, maybe I'm desparing,

351
00:18:16,559 --> 00:18:18,680
Maybe I just need a pep talk, victor maybe I

352
00:18:18,759 --> 00:18:21,880
just need a good slap on the back, because lately, man,

353
00:18:21,960 --> 00:18:24,960
some of these third tier guys in the deep leagues

354
00:18:25,079 --> 00:18:26,960
that you trade for, because now every trade in a

355
00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:29,519
deep league is going to get you Matt Veay, Mitchkoff,

356
00:18:29,559 --> 00:18:31,799
and not everyone that's going to get you i'van Demedov.

357
00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:35,839
Some of the time in these deep leagues, you're hustling

358
00:18:36,079 --> 00:18:38,640
for somebody who, like on your list, maybe would be

359
00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:43,000
ranked number seventy or number one hundred, and so I

360
00:18:43,039 --> 00:18:46,319
went back and said, is that juice worth the squeeze?

361
00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:50,319
Is it worth it for me to really grind to

362
00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:53,440
try to get a level of prospect who's a little

363
00:18:53,480 --> 00:18:56,680
bit better than what's on the waiver wire, and I

364
00:18:56,720 --> 00:18:58,839
went back and looked, because I've done this with other

365
00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:01,480
sports too, but I went and looked. I did some

366
00:19:01,519 --> 00:19:04,759
googling to try to find a prospect list from ten

367
00:19:04,839 --> 00:19:08,279
years ago, and I was able to get ESPN had

368
00:19:08,319 --> 00:19:10,599
at the top fifty or the top one hundred from

369
00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:14,359
Corey Primeman back in twenty fourteen. Opinions vary on mister

370
00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:17,440
Primeent as a prospect analyst. He's still out there, he's

371
00:19:17,440 --> 00:19:20,640
still kicking with the athletic But I was interested to

372
00:19:20,640 --> 00:19:23,920
see his top fifty rankings in twenty fourteen, not the

373
00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:28,039
two twenty fourteen draft, but a snapshot in time in

374
00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:33,480
twenty fourteen of everybody who was everybody who had been

375
00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:37,759
drafted by a team but was still a prospect, and

376
00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:41,200
what his top one hundred were. Out of the top fifty,

377
00:19:41,519 --> 00:19:46,599
I counted nineteen that had I had them at that

378
00:19:46,799 --> 00:19:49,519
time and I still had them now, or I had

379
00:19:49,559 --> 00:19:52,319
him for a good part of that time, I would

380
00:19:52,319 --> 00:19:55,319
have been pretty happy about Rostering the whole time. And

381
00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:58,599
then if I went to the bottom fifty of his

382
00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:01,759
top one hundred, it's about half that. So all in all,

383
00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:04,240
less than a one to three shot that a top

384
00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:06,960
one hundred prospect is somebody you even want on your

385
00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:10,640
team from something like that. And again, Prominan's take is

386
00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:12,759
not necessarily and I don't think he claims for it

387
00:20:12,759 --> 00:20:15,880
to be a fantasy forward take. He has a sort

388
00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:18,960
of a different type of opinion. But man, I just

389
00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:21,160
look at that list and it just depresses it. If

390
00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:24,359
you hustled real hard in twenty fourteen and you ended

391
00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:28,759
up getting Tanner Pearson in Anthony Mantha, who I didn't

392
00:20:28,799 --> 00:20:31,839
count among the nineteen I said, I would be really

393
00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:34,799
happy with it. Really, if you had Anthony Mantha for

394
00:20:34,839 --> 00:20:37,440
the last ten years and you would been grinding and

395
00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:39,599
grinding to try to get him, you would have been

396
00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:42,240
happy two or three years out of that right to

397
00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:45,880
various moderate degrees, and most of the time you'd be like,

398
00:20:46,559 --> 00:20:48,880
what is this guy's at the bottom of my roster?

399
00:20:49,279 --> 00:20:53,480
Dependent on the depth of the thing you'd you probably

400
00:20:53,519 --> 00:20:56,240
would have spent a lot more time hoping for a

401
00:20:56,279 --> 00:20:59,680
breakout from one of these guys than actually getting anything

402
00:21:00,039 --> 00:21:05,240
worth of darn. And I don't know, Victor, everything is awful,

403
00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:09,319
prospects are terrible, and I just never want to have

404
00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:11,480
any of them again, unless it's a top five prospect.

405
00:21:12,079 --> 00:21:15,640
Is this obviously the truth? Am I right to just

406
00:21:15,799 --> 00:21:18,160
lose all faith in the prospected process?

407
00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:24,240
Speaker 3: Of course I'm contractually obligated to disagree with that sentiment.

408
00:21:24,759 --> 00:21:26,839
But no, it is frustrating. And I don't think this

409
00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:29,559
has anything to do with a knock on Corey or anything.

410
00:21:29,599 --> 00:21:31,359
I think if you look at anyone's list, there'd be

411
00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:33,680
a whole bunch of hits and misses. I think it's

412
00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:36,400
more just to I think you're talking about the idea

413
00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:39,279
in general of how many of these guys are even relevant,

414
00:21:39,319 --> 00:21:41,519
And I think this is Yeah, we talk about the funnel,

415
00:21:41,799 --> 00:21:43,759
and I think there's a lot of things to talk

416
00:21:43,759 --> 00:21:46,680
about here. So I think this is really good. I'm

417
00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:50,319
glad you brought this up. I think that when it

418
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:53,359
prospects farther along, and with this list in particular, there

419
00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:56,200
are some guys that were much closer to being NH

420
00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:58,559
already and some that were farther away, So that always

421
00:21:58,599 --> 00:22:02,160
makes it a little bit. But I think knowing what

422
00:22:02,279 --> 00:22:04,400
someone is going to be, or having a better idea

423
00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:06,240
of what they're going to be, as opposed to someone

424
00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:10,920
who is still far away, it's really hard to make

425
00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:13,480
that valuation. I think a really good example right now

426
00:22:13,559 --> 00:22:18,119
is if you looked at maybe someone might say Zay

427
00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:22,559
Perak versus like a pabl Minchikov or a Zelweger. These

428
00:22:22,559 --> 00:22:25,119
guys are like in the NHL versus someone who's still

429
00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:28,119
years away. It's really hard to make that comparison, but

430
00:22:28,799 --> 00:22:30,680
it reminds me of a discussion I had with Dabber

431
00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:34,519
about rankings. If you're talking about someone who's farther down

432
00:22:34,559 --> 00:22:38,400
the funnel and they're already showing you who they are,

433
00:22:39,079 --> 00:22:42,920
to me, that makes a really big difference. And if

434
00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:46,799
someone is already playing numbers of games in the NHL

435
00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:49,680
or having a hard time breaking into the NHL, that

436
00:22:49,759 --> 00:22:52,039
tells you quite a lot about where they are and

437
00:22:52,079 --> 00:22:54,759
what the status of what the team thinks about them,

438
00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:57,680
and how likely they already translate to the top level.

439
00:22:57,759 --> 00:23:01,880
So all of those things, his range of outcomes more narrow,

440
00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:04,480
and you have more data and you have more of

441
00:23:04,519 --> 00:23:08,000
an idea of what's actually happening. So for me in

442
00:23:08,039 --> 00:23:11,960
that situation, like I think Zelweger's a really interesting conversation

443
00:23:12,079 --> 00:23:14,759
because he's someone who's right now I'm actually writing about

444
00:23:14,799 --> 00:23:17,039
him free p ringside, But he's someone who's playing. I mean,

445
00:23:17,039 --> 00:23:19,519
he's as we're recording tonight, he scored a goal and

446
00:23:19,599 --> 00:23:23,519
so he's breaking into the NHL. But if you look

447
00:23:23,559 --> 00:23:26,119
at his time in junior, he was like the next

448
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:30,400
coming of cal mccarr according to some people, and he

449
00:23:30,559 --> 00:23:34,559
was incredible. He's looking fantastic. But the more he and

450
00:23:34,599 --> 00:23:37,279
then things were happening with the NHL club and then

451
00:23:37,279 --> 00:23:40,400
Pavel Minchikov passes him and dryz Out gets traded in

452
00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:42,880
the whole situation changes in front of him, and so

453
00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:44,720
it's one of those things, and he's taken a little

454
00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:46,319
bit longer to break in, which I don't think is

455
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:49,119
necessarily on him. So you just get a little bit

456
00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:52,000
more data and it tells you something about what's happening.

457
00:23:52,799 --> 00:23:56,000
And in particular, I think Daber is someone who famously

458
00:23:56,079 --> 00:23:58,960
ranks guys that are farther down the funnel quite high

459
00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:02,200
because of their proximity to the NHL. But another example,

460
00:24:02,279 --> 00:24:05,200
I thought it was someone like Jacob Peltier, who I

461
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:06,839
can't remember how high he had him, but I think

462
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:09,640
it was like top five or something coming into the year.

463
00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:11,759
It was really high. And I think that was almost

464
00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:14,480
entirely because he's knocking on the door of the NHL,

465
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:17,799
but he's also someone who's taken a long time to

466
00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:23,400
actually break in, and he's had some time in the AHL,

467
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:25,119
and it just he's one of those things where the

468
00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:27,440
longer it takes, the more questions you have, and the

469
00:24:27,559 --> 00:24:29,920
range of outcomes get more and more narrow, and he

470
00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:32,599
starts looking like maybe a quad a guy, or maybe

471
00:24:32,599 --> 00:24:34,759
a guy who's not going to score much in the NHL,

472
00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:37,480
whereas some guys just step right into the league. And

473
00:24:37,519 --> 00:24:39,880
we saw what jet lu Chenko is doing at such

474
00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:43,359
a young age, super impressive, so that that kind of

475
00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:46,279
raises your stock a little bit. So I think that

476
00:24:46,799 --> 00:24:48,880
it's one of these things that it's interesting and you

477
00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:52,279
have to think about all these contexts, and the more

478
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:56,279
someone shows you that they're closer to average, I guess

479
00:24:56,279 --> 00:24:57,839
what I'm trying to say is that the more you

480
00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:01,720
should be disinterested in that, because, like you said, these

481
00:25:01,759 --> 00:25:03,920
guys that we're looking at, I looked at this list too,

482
00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:06,400
and it's a really fun thing to look back. I mean,

483
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:08,519
like Jonathan Jurand is number one on this list, which

484
00:25:08,559 --> 00:25:11,759
is hilarious because he's one of the least relevant guys,

485
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:15,400
you know, behind Neilanders, on this list, Sam Ryan Hrt

486
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:18,400
those kinds of things. So yeah, you definitely look through

487
00:25:18,759 --> 00:25:20,880
in the top you know, you could quibble with some

488
00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:22,359
of the top but then you start getting towards the

489
00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:24,880
back half of the top fifty, and like you said,

490
00:25:25,079 --> 00:25:26,880
a lot of these guys are not interesting. And that's

491
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:28,960
why people often ask me what do you think of

492
00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:31,240
this guy? And I just usually often my answer is

493
00:25:31,319 --> 00:25:33,920
I'm just not that into it. And the reason is

494
00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:36,720
because what I'm trying to say is that he seems

495
00:25:36,759 --> 00:25:38,920
like a guy who might be on your roster for

496
00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:41,680
a long time and just never do anything, and then

497
00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:43,880
you end up just dropping him and then maybe years

498
00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:46,599
later they become relevant again, but they are not with

499
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:49,200
the original team they drafted him. And you can just

500
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:51,200
look at this list and find some examples like Max

501
00:25:51,279 --> 00:25:54,240
Domi can be a Fantasy relevant player, but did you

502
00:25:54,279 --> 00:25:58,359
hold him for tenure? Who would have done that? This

503
00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:02,680
is jacob Ron, Anthony Manthe. You mentioned Robbie Fabre. There's

504
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:05,480
a bunch of guys Raquel who's gone up and down

505
00:26:05,519 --> 00:26:08,759
in terms of value. So it's really that's one of

506
00:26:08,759 --> 00:26:10,279
these things when you look at these lists, and that's

507
00:26:10,279 --> 00:26:12,680
what I often ask myself, is this someone who of

508
00:26:12,799 --> 00:26:16,880
you gonna want to hold the entire time, never drop,

509
00:26:17,319 --> 00:26:19,839
and be a staple of your team for years to come.

510
00:26:20,319 --> 00:26:23,799
Those guys are rare, right, And I like to think

511
00:26:23,839 --> 00:26:26,680
we have more hits than misses, but everyone's going to

512
00:26:26,759 --> 00:26:29,640
have their misses, and I think that the more someone

513
00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:32,240
starts to show you their average, you have to just

514
00:26:32,319 --> 00:26:33,920
pull the plug a little bit in terms of your

515
00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:37,440
interest level. And I would rather drop someone who's going

516
00:26:37,519 --> 00:26:41,319
to be like an average producer and take my chances

517
00:26:41,359 --> 00:26:44,200
on getting some of these post hype sleepers, because some

518
00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:46,119
of the guys on the back half of this list

519
00:26:46,279 --> 00:26:49,160
have actually turned out to be relevant, but it wasn't

520
00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:52,599
right away. It took a long time. Mac Matheson is

521
00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:55,160
number sixty three on this list. He's pretty interesting and

522
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:57,279
valuable right now, but he went through phases where he

523
00:26:57,519 --> 00:27:01,039
was nowhere near anyone's roster had much interest in him.

524
00:27:01,559 --> 00:27:04,759
William Carlson has another one on here. I haven't Barbashev.

525
00:27:05,279 --> 00:27:07,000
There were a lot of nothing years and then there

526
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:09,920
were some there's some decent years. So I think where

527
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:12,759
I kind of land on that is that if they're

528
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:16,559
going to be someone that I can probably reacquire labor later.

529
00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:18,960
If I drop them and I don't have to hold

530
00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:21,599
them the entire time, then I would rather do that

531
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:25,240
because I could always add someone as a post hype

532
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:27,559
years later and I didn't have to hold them the

533
00:27:27,559 --> 00:27:30,839
whole time, and you get a lot of value out

534
00:27:30,839 --> 00:27:33,000
of that. Sharon Govic is a classic example of a

535
00:27:33,039 --> 00:27:36,680
guy who has been pretty relevant recently. But I doubt

536
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:41,119
most people draft and held him the whole time. So yeah,

537
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:43,759
it's an imperfect science, and I'm you know, we all

538
00:27:43,799 --> 00:27:47,839
get stuff wrong, but I think I think you have

539
00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:49,559
to shift how you think about it. Right when you're

540
00:27:49,599 --> 00:27:52,000
drafting these prospects, of course, we're all getting really excited

541
00:27:52,039 --> 00:27:54,000
about it, but you have to ask yourself, is this

542
00:27:54,039 --> 00:27:57,400
someone I plan on drafting and holding the entire time,

543
00:27:57,799 --> 00:27:59,640
or is this someone that might have a good pedigree

544
00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:01,920
and I can get another asset for them. Or do

545
00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:03,799
I just hold them for a year or two, which

546
00:28:03,839 --> 00:28:06,480
is often my strategy, see if they continue to increase

547
00:28:06,839 --> 00:28:09,400
their value or if they stagnate, I'm just going to

548
00:28:09,519 --> 00:28:12,319
drop them. I think you have to be really aware

549
00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:16,359
of the long term outcomes there, because drafting and holding

550
00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:20,240
for five or six years and having them be a

551
00:28:20,279 --> 00:28:23,200
you know, a superstar on your team is super rare

552
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:23,880
or anythink.

553
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:29,319
Speaker 2: I absolutely think that, yeah, and it really Yeah. The

554
00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:32,319
thing is you look at a list like this was

555
00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:37,279
like number eighty seven Braiden Point, number ninety eight Dylan Larkin.

556
00:28:37,519 --> 00:28:41,480
And that's why and that's why this happens, is we're

557
00:28:41,519 --> 00:28:44,160
all convinced we've got Braidon Point and Dylan Larkin in

558
00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:48,920
our prospect systems, and just often enough we do. And

559
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:51,839
that's why you listen to Victor Nuno because he finds

560
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:54,359
these guys. But I think I'm going to chill a

561
00:28:54,359 --> 00:28:56,559
little on the Josh Davies watch, even though I was

562
00:28:56,559 --> 00:29:00,680
trying to get into my Florida Panthers prospect a little

563
00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:04,000
while ago. I just think some of these intermediate guys,

564
00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:07,480
if you can trade them at the right time, you're

565
00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:09,359
going to get something out of them. But it's those

566
00:29:09,359 --> 00:29:12,799
marginal guys like you talk about the Jacob Pelotier's are

567
00:29:13,359 --> 00:29:16,200
just they're going to be an anchor on your team

568
00:29:16,359 --> 00:29:17,119
more than likely.

569
00:29:17,839 --> 00:29:21,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I think some people underestimate how costly that is,

570
00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:25,079
like it might seem you might. I think people are

571
00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:28,079
averse to the oh I'm going to drop a superstar

572
00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:30,720
before they really break out. I think that's often the concern.

573
00:29:30,839 --> 00:29:33,440
How often does that really truly happen. I would say

574
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:36,079
it's pretty rare, but everyone's scared of that. But they'll

575
00:29:36,079 --> 00:29:39,000
hold on to a Jacob Pelotier for six years after

576
00:29:39,039 --> 00:29:41,599
he's drafted because you still think that he can be

577
00:29:42,359 --> 00:29:45,359
a seventy point player. But that's actually pretty costly because

578
00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:47,440
in that time you could have picked up any number

579
00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:51,519
of free agents who got a new opportunity, got traded

580
00:29:51,559 --> 00:29:55,559
to a new team, or finally broke out according to

581
00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:58,519
their potential when it took overally long time and maybe

582
00:29:58,559 --> 00:30:00,400
a couple of teams to really get that out of them.

583
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:02,960
It is the opportunity cost of having that roster space

584
00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:05,799
and being able to take a chance on someone who's

585
00:30:05,839 --> 00:30:08,839
still showing more promise, and not just continuing to anchor

586
00:30:08,839 --> 00:30:11,880
your belief space on something that was happening years ago.

587
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:13,640
So I think the lesson here is just be a

588
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:17,680
little less attached to your guys. In the NHL, they

589
00:30:17,759 --> 00:30:20,160
do this with players, They treat them as assets, and

590
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:22,039
maybe that's a little wrong because they are people. But

591
00:30:22,079 --> 00:30:24,039
on your fantasy team, you have no control over that,

592
00:30:24,119 --> 00:30:27,000
and you should treat them exactly like assets because you

593
00:30:27,039 --> 00:30:29,799
don't know them, and you should just try to detach

594
00:30:29,839 --> 00:30:33,519
yourself from the outcome of what's really going to happen,

595
00:30:33,559 --> 00:30:35,279
because they may be on your team or they may

596
00:30:35,279 --> 00:30:37,559
not be. But like you said, they can often provide

597
00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:39,480
much more value if you trade them at exactly at

598
00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:41,640
the right time, than they ever will on your roster.

599
00:30:44,119 --> 00:30:46,599
Speaker 2: Absolutely, all right, Victor, we're going to take a break,

600
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:48,519
We're gonna come back. We got a couple more good

601
00:30:48,559 --> 00:30:59,200
topics to discuss. Would you be prepared if gravity reversed itself?

602
00:31:00,079 --> 00:31:03,079
Speaker 3: Well, the only thing I can't figure out is how

603
00:31:03,079 --> 00:31:04,400
to keep the change in my pocket?

604
00:31:06,079 --> 00:31:10,599
Speaker 2: Victor. My next question inspired a little bit by you,

605
00:31:10,839 --> 00:31:14,039
to be honest, and yet it's a broader topic in

606
00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:19,319
play here than just that. And my topic is how

607
00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:22,400
should we or should we not fan as we are

608
00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:26,480
analysts making fan into a verb, of course. And I

609
00:31:26,519 --> 00:31:29,200
know as the years have gone on and you've become

610
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:32,759
a real media professional, you don't identify as being a

611
00:31:32,759 --> 00:31:35,440
Sharks fan the way that you were several years ago.

612
00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:38,640
I think this is a natural progression that you hear

613
00:31:38,680 --> 00:31:41,519
a lot of people who are in media go through

614
00:31:41,799 --> 00:31:44,880
is when you start out, you are into a team

615
00:31:45,000 --> 00:31:47,880
because you're young, you're trying to get into a sport.

616
00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:49,200
Of course you're going to have a team that you

617
00:31:49,319 --> 00:31:52,920
cheer for. But as time goes on, especially those in media,

618
00:31:53,039 --> 00:31:56,160
will say I'm a fan of the league, I'm a

619
00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:59,599
fan of the players. I do not anymore identify with

620
00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:02,400
the launch. That is not what I'm doing, and that

621
00:32:02,519 --> 00:32:05,240
makes a lot of sense. And so I'm not trying

622
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:07,759
to put words in your mouth because that's you might

623
00:32:07,799 --> 00:32:10,400
have a different way that you'll put this. I know

624
00:32:10,519 --> 00:32:12,440
for me, I'm a little bit torn by it. I

625
00:32:12,519 --> 00:32:16,000
might have some maybe carve outs that I think are true.

626
00:32:16,519 --> 00:32:20,079
But as we take a journalistic approach or also a

627
00:32:20,079 --> 00:32:23,880
fantasy approach where we have to value players from all teams,

628
00:32:24,559 --> 00:32:26,680
things can change a little bit. Can you talk a

629
00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:31,400
little bit about your approach to whether you identify as

630
00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:34,200
a fan of a team now in how you arrived there?

631
00:32:35,759 --> 00:32:38,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's a really good question, and people

632
00:32:38,799 --> 00:32:40,759
may or may not realize this, but when you write

633
00:32:40,759 --> 00:32:43,200
for a team as an actual journalist, a lot of

634
00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:46,079
these sites are like fan sites. That's different. If you're

635
00:32:46,079 --> 00:32:47,680
a fan site, then you're supposed to be a total

636
00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:51,400
homer and pump up your guys. But most journalists with

637
00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:54,440
any integrity, you first sang is you don't cheer for

638
00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:57,039
the team, you're not a fan, And the reason is

639
00:32:57,240 --> 00:32:59,640
you can. I think it's really impossible to be objective

640
00:33:00,160 --> 00:33:03,000
when you're rooting for someone. I think inherently we all want,

641
00:33:03,119 --> 00:33:05,000
especially if you're covering our team, you certainly want them

642
00:33:05,039 --> 00:33:07,680
to do well, but you're not fanning for them. You're

643
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:10,599
not cheering. You're trying to be objective and really break

644
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:14,400
down what is happening, what's going on, And I think, personally,

645
00:33:14,440 --> 00:33:16,640
I just think it's really impossible to do that, to

646
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:20,119
be objective if you're fanning. And I think part of

647
00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:24,480
it comes down to what's your goal, what's your intention here?

648
00:33:24,559 --> 00:33:27,839
And I think if your intention is to pump up

649
00:33:27,839 --> 00:33:29,720
your team and talk about how great they are, then

650
00:33:29,759 --> 00:33:33,640
clearly you're a fan. And if that's what you're trying

651
00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:35,559
to do, and you're just trying to get everyone else

652
00:33:35,559 --> 00:33:38,200
excited about your team, then that's fine. If your goal

653
00:33:38,279 --> 00:33:40,519
is to provide media coverage for the team, like the

654
00:33:40,519 --> 00:33:43,119
beat writers do, they're certainly not fans. They're trying to

655
00:33:43,160 --> 00:33:47,279
be objective and bring you the information that isn't colored

656
00:33:47,319 --> 00:33:50,240
by trying to see everything who rose colored glasses, And

657
00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:52,480
I think the same is true for me. My intention

658
00:33:52,680 --> 00:33:56,519
is to provide fantasy hockey analysis and try to decide

659
00:33:56,559 --> 00:33:58,759
which prospects are best and if you're a fan of

660
00:33:58,799 --> 00:34:01,240
a certain team that has right reason against other teams,

661
00:34:01,279 --> 00:34:03,640
Like early on, people would often say this, Oh, you

662
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:05,920
just hate this prospect because they played for a rival

663
00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:08,320
of the Sharks. If I was a fan for the Sharks,

664
00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:10,039
I think that would be a real problem. And that's

665
00:34:10,079 --> 00:34:13,559
partly why I don't do that, because I've heard a

666
00:34:13,599 --> 00:34:16,639
lot of people say this. It's actually funny recently they'll say,

667
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:19,800
put aside my bias against this player. But this is

668
00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:21,840
what I think right now, and it's no, you can't

669
00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:25,199
do that. Your opinion in that context has been valid.

670
00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:28,719
If everyone knows you have a bias for or against them,

671
00:34:29,159 --> 00:34:33,119
how can they take you objectively seriously when you are

672
00:34:33,159 --> 00:34:36,639
clearly have a hard time or or maybe it's impossible

673
00:34:36,679 --> 00:34:39,320
to be objective in that context. So I think that's

674
00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:43,280
where But it's really important that when I started writing

675
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:45,960
for the Sharks, which was the first sort of media

676
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:48,360
thing I did that was the first thing that I

677
00:34:48,440 --> 00:34:50,519
had to say is no, I'm not a fan. That's actally.

678
00:34:50,559 --> 00:34:52,760
When it started, even though I was still covering the team,

679
00:34:53,199 --> 00:34:55,880
I wasn't really in my mind, allowed to be a

680
00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:58,840
fan anymore. And then it shifted away from just the

681
00:34:58,880 --> 00:35:02,400
Sharks to all prospects and looking at all different teams,

682
00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:05,559
and I think that's particularly important. I see some people

683
00:35:05,599 --> 00:35:08,199
do this pretty well. I'm not saying it can't be

684
00:35:08,280 --> 00:35:11,239
done where you're a fan of the team, but you

685
00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:15,440
provide some pretty objective analysis, and I think it can

686
00:35:15,519 --> 00:35:17,639
be done. But I think it's extremely hard, and I

687
00:35:17,639 --> 00:35:20,000
think that you're always going to have certain biases and

688
00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:22,199
people will have to take that into context. And I

689
00:35:22,199 --> 00:35:25,000
would like and hopefully this is the case for people

690
00:35:25,119 --> 00:35:27,480
to be able to listen to things that I say

691
00:35:27,519 --> 00:35:29,880
and not say he's just saying that because he's a

692
00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:33,400
Sharks fanner, he's saying that because he doesn't like certain leagues,

693
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:36,280
or he's biased concertain things. Would I'm sure we all

694
00:35:36,320 --> 00:35:39,519
still have our biases people were talking about. Prominent people

695
00:35:39,519 --> 00:35:42,440
are saying, oh, he has a bias against short players.

696
00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:43,880
I don't know that I would agree with that. I

697
00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:46,400
think that he has seen the difficulty that short players

698
00:35:46,440 --> 00:35:49,880
have breaking into the league, and he's using objective information

699
00:35:50,079 --> 00:35:53,639
to help make his opinions, which I don't think is

700
00:35:53,679 --> 00:35:56,599
a bias, it's a this is reality. And I think

701
00:35:56,639 --> 00:35:58,280
that's what I try to do too, is say what

702
00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:02,400
is realistic here, blending what's realistic with what is an

703
00:36:02,400 --> 00:36:04,840
objective opinion. And I think all of that is really

704
00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:07,079
hard to do if you're just fan boing for your guy,

705
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:09,880
And so that's where I come down on that. I'm

706
00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:12,519
not saying it's impossible. I'm sure some people can do it,

707
00:36:12,559 --> 00:36:14,239
and I've heard some people do it pretty well. But

708
00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:17,920
I think that's that's why I decided to forego my

709
00:36:18,199 --> 00:36:21,480
fandom about five years ago. Now when that's sort of happening,

710
00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:25,000
and I continue to feel that way. Now, will I

711
00:36:25,000 --> 00:36:27,559
ever be super ecstatic if the Sharks ever win the

712
00:36:27,599 --> 00:36:29,639
Standy Cup. I'm sure part of me will still say, yeah,

713
00:36:29,679 --> 00:36:32,159
that's really cool for all those guys in the organization,

714
00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:34,880
But I'd like to think that it'll be just a

715
00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:37,239
little bit more special than when another team that I

716
00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:40,800
think deserves it would win, Like Nashville would be really fun.

717
00:36:40,880 --> 00:36:42,679
They have a great city, and a great vibe there,

718
00:36:42,679 --> 00:36:45,039
and I think there are a lot of other organizations

719
00:36:45,039 --> 00:36:48,280
where I'd feel happy for them getting it done. I'm

720
00:36:48,280 --> 00:36:51,119
sure the Sharks will have a special place, but I

721
00:36:51,159 --> 00:36:55,480
think that anything beyond that is really it's clouding your

722
00:36:55,559 --> 00:36:58,519
judgment too much, and I want to make sure to

723
00:36:58,559 --> 00:37:01,559
do everything I can to avoid that. See.

724
00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:04,119
Speaker 2: No, it makes a lot of sense, and I do

725
00:37:04,199 --> 00:37:08,480
think of I'll be honest, I think of myself almost

726
00:37:08,519 --> 00:37:11,199
as much as an entertainer as I am anything like

727
00:37:11,239 --> 00:37:15,239
a journalist. I'm providing commentary on fantasy hockey and things

728
00:37:15,320 --> 00:37:18,440
like that. You're writing and doing some of these things

729
00:37:18,880 --> 00:37:21,320
in a bit more professional fashion than I am. To

730
00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:24,239
be honest, I think I am a fan a little

731
00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:28,400
bit differently than some people are though I and I'm

732
00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:30,800
not talking about you. I'm just talking about the general public.

733
00:37:31,199 --> 00:37:33,599
Like I've never been a guy who turns on the

734
00:37:33,639 --> 00:37:35,800
TV and watches a game and like yells at the

735
00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:40,360
TV or gets incredibly excited when something goes for or

736
00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:44,159
against my team. It's just almost more like philosophical, like

737
00:37:45,039 --> 00:37:47,199
you know, and I get nervous. I mean when the

738
00:37:47,639 --> 00:37:50,920
when the Capitals won the Stanley Cup, I was quite nervous.

739
00:37:50,920 --> 00:37:56,159
In fact, I found it almost impossible to watch those games.

740
00:37:56,480 --> 00:37:59,159
I was glad I did watch them, but I find

741
00:37:59,199 --> 00:38:01,960
them they were incredibly painful at those times. I do

742
00:38:02,039 --> 00:38:05,360
wonder sometimes whether people identify me as is some kind

743
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:09,199
of a Capital's homer. But like I've said before, sometimes

744
00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:12,119
I feel like the fact that I watch more Capitals

745
00:38:12,119 --> 00:38:14,719
games than I watch other teams. That does mean some

746
00:38:14,920 --> 00:38:18,559
nights Caps might be on and I might say I'm

747
00:38:18,599 --> 00:38:20,320
just going to watch the Panthers tonight. And it's not

748
00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:22,360
because I'm mad at the Caps or anything. Just we

749
00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:24,719
try to watch a little bit of everything around here,

750
00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:26,440
so it's not like I'm all the way in the

751
00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:30,199
bag for them. I'm still perfectly willing to have Sidney

752
00:38:30,199 --> 00:38:33,440
Crosby on my team any single day of the week.

753
00:38:34,119 --> 00:38:37,679
There's not a bias against other franchises, I think because

754
00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:42,639
of any perceived rivalries. But I don't know. I guess

755
00:38:42,639 --> 00:38:45,400
I've just been trying to hold those things in creative

756
00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:48,519
tension in my mind. Maybe at some point I will

757
00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:52,719
think the same way that you are for my own

758
00:38:53,360 --> 00:38:55,840
choices as far as is how I want to do things.

759
00:38:55,880 --> 00:38:59,400
But I think for right now, I'm already fairly separated

760
00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:05,079
from I think of myself as I'm not going to

761
00:39:06,199 --> 00:39:08,000
I'm still going to say I'm cheering for a team.

762
00:39:08,199 --> 00:39:10,840
I'm still gonna wear a Capital's T shirt from time

763
00:39:10,880 --> 00:39:14,920
to time, but it doesn't mean that. It doesn't mean

764
00:39:14,960 --> 00:39:19,800
that I think I'm not seeing those players objectively. And frankly,

765
00:39:20,039 --> 00:39:22,559
I got a long Logan Stankovic jersey too. We'll end

766
00:39:22,559 --> 00:39:26,760
to wear that. It doesn't matter. Kicking a broad approach there, Victor.

767
00:39:27,400 --> 00:39:30,880
But yeah, if you see I know it's one of

768
00:39:30,920 --> 00:39:33,360
your least favorite things in the past. Not to call

769
00:39:33,400 --> 00:39:35,440
anybody out, but when we've had people on the show

770
00:39:35,719 --> 00:39:39,400
who very definitely have been Homer's for a team, it's

771
00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:43,480
made for some fairly painful content, right, Yeah.

772
00:39:43,559 --> 00:39:45,559
Speaker 3: And I think the thing is that people who follow

773
00:39:45,599 --> 00:39:49,039
our team previous series probably realize that we have moved

774
00:39:49,079 --> 00:39:51,800
away from those types of guests, And I think it's

775
00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:54,440
for exactly that reason. If you have someone who is

776
00:39:54,519 --> 00:39:57,000
clearly fan going for a certain player, and you say,

777
00:39:57,159 --> 00:39:59,800
is he going to get seventy points? And yeah, definitely,

778
00:40:00,599 --> 00:40:04,360
So do you believe that or do you believe someone

779
00:40:04,480 --> 00:40:07,920
when they can sit back and say they don't have

780
00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:11,800
to consider I want them to. They just have to consider, actually,

781
00:40:12,400 --> 00:40:14,840
can they do it, how would they do it? How

782
00:40:14,920 --> 00:40:17,039
much even strength time are they getting, how much time

783
00:40:17,039 --> 00:40:18,519
on the power plant, how many powerful the points have

784
00:40:18,559 --> 00:40:20,480
they got in the past, how many assists, the shooting

785
00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:22,280
percentage high, all these things that we think about, And

786
00:40:22,280 --> 00:40:23,920
maybe they don't have to say it in those terms,

787
00:40:24,159 --> 00:40:26,599
but they're thinking about a realistic context for how this

788
00:40:26,679 --> 00:40:29,719
can happen and not just trying to wish it into existence. Right.

789
00:40:30,119 --> 00:40:32,599
So that's why I think having those kinds of guests

790
00:40:32,760 --> 00:40:35,719
is just inherently flawed. Unless you just want to, you know,

791
00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:38,320
shoot the bs about a certain team and just talk

792
00:40:38,360 --> 00:40:41,360
about whatever, I don't necessarily find that it's helpful. So

793
00:40:41,400 --> 00:40:44,079
that's partly why we've moved against that. And the other

794
00:40:44,079 --> 00:40:45,760
thing I wanted to mention too, is that I've heard

795
00:40:45,800 --> 00:40:47,440
some people say, I'm a fan of this team, but

796
00:40:47,480 --> 00:40:50,639
I'm I'm super critical. Like I maybe on the other side,

797
00:40:50,679 --> 00:40:53,079
like I think they're a little bit more pessimistic, which

798
00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:55,360
I'm sure that can work to some extent, but I

799
00:40:55,360 --> 00:40:59,840
still think you're gonna be biased. You may be biased negatively,

800
00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:02,760
but you're still going to be biased because you might

801
00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:05,360
say this guy is terrible defensively, and I don't think

802
00:41:05,400 --> 00:41:07,000
he should play as many minutes as he does. So

803
00:41:07,000 --> 00:41:08,639
if someone asks you how many points they're going to

804
00:41:08,679 --> 00:41:12,800
get next year, you might use that negative context for

805
00:41:12,840 --> 00:41:16,639
that player based on your feelings, which may or may

806
00:41:16,639 --> 00:41:19,000
not be echoed by the coach, which sometimes we know

807
00:41:19,079 --> 00:41:22,079
they play guys many more minutes than they should. I'm

808
00:41:22,119 --> 00:41:25,000
looking at you, Ben Shrot. But anyways, there's a lot

809
00:41:25,000 --> 00:41:27,639
of guys like that in the league, and when you're

810
00:41:27,679 --> 00:41:30,920
a little too bought in for one reason or another,

811
00:41:30,960 --> 00:41:32,800
that can make it hard to make an honest assessment.

812
00:41:32,880 --> 00:41:35,440
So I'm not trying to say anyone's wrong for doing

813
00:41:35,480 --> 00:41:37,360
it one way or there. Those are just some of

814
00:41:37,360 --> 00:41:40,119
the reasons why I think it's important. And frankly, when

815
00:41:40,159 --> 00:41:42,920
we had some of those guests on and they were

816
00:41:42,960 --> 00:41:45,360
just clearly, yeah, I want that to happen. Yeah, that

817
00:41:45,440 --> 00:41:47,880
sounds good, I just didn't find it as helpful, and

818
00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:49,519
I don't know if anyone else felt that way too,

819
00:41:49,639 --> 00:41:51,639
but I felt like I had a hard time believing

820
00:41:51,639 --> 00:41:53,119
what they were saying when they were a little bit

821
00:41:53,159 --> 00:41:53,920
too fanboy.

822
00:41:54,840 --> 00:41:57,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're definitely not doing all of you out there

823
00:41:57,719 --> 00:42:00,400
listening to the show a whole lot of good if

824
00:42:00,440 --> 00:42:03,559
that's the type of content that we emphasize or we

825
00:42:04,000 --> 00:42:07,480
promote here. So yeah, I think hitting that sweet spot

826
00:42:07,599 --> 00:42:10,960
where you are more in tune than the casual NHL

827
00:42:11,039 --> 00:42:14,599
watcher for a team, or you're the the or level

828
00:42:14,599 --> 00:42:17,320
would be your flut ocian Zawa. Hear in that Bruins

829
00:42:17,400 --> 00:42:21,320
locker room every day and you are incredibly well connected

830
00:42:21,360 --> 00:42:24,239
and one of the best journalists in the business. Is

831
00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:27,199
that that is where you can go to be in

832
00:42:27,360 --> 00:42:32,280
the or level of these things. All right, let's set

833
00:42:32,280 --> 00:42:36,039
one more topic to talk about here and just really

834
00:42:37,239 --> 00:42:40,679
uh really trying to get into process stuff here. We've

835
00:42:40,719 --> 00:42:44,039
talked about processes for how you set your lineups and

836
00:42:44,039 --> 00:42:45,880
how you keep track of your leagues and all these

837
00:42:45,920 --> 00:42:49,159
types of things. But I'm curious to the extent that

838
00:42:49,199 --> 00:42:53,679
you do trading in season, Victor or I'm sorry, streaming

839
00:42:53,880 --> 00:42:57,280
ads drops those types of things. I'm curious what types

840
00:42:57,320 --> 00:43:00,639
of things you look for in terms of computating right now,

841
00:43:00,639 --> 00:43:03,000
and I'm going to put three five things out there.

842
00:43:03,639 --> 00:43:08,159
You can rank, rate, stack, these add other things whatever

843
00:43:08,199 --> 00:43:10,079
you want to do with them. But some of the

844
00:43:10,119 --> 00:43:13,760
things that I think are sometimes things to look at

845
00:43:13,920 --> 00:43:16,480
one of them when you're trying to decide, Okay, I

846
00:43:17,320 --> 00:43:18,920
need to pick up a player for this week, or

847
00:43:18,920 --> 00:43:21,079
I want to pick up a player. You got your

848
00:43:21,159 --> 00:43:24,000
recent performance in terms of some service numbers, as he

849
00:43:24,079 --> 00:43:28,079
had three goals in the last seven days, line placement,

850
00:43:28,119 --> 00:43:30,360
deployment moves, so and so has just moved up to

851
00:43:30,400 --> 00:43:33,000
power play one. So I'm going to add them because

852
00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:37,239
of that recent underline numbers. Of course, we all like

853
00:43:37,280 --> 00:43:39,519
to talk about that we're looking at the underlying numbers

854
00:43:39,559 --> 00:43:43,079
and if so, which ones guys who shouldn't be on

855
00:43:43,119 --> 00:43:47,079
the waiver wire somehow or are due because you know,

856
00:43:47,199 --> 00:43:49,199
somebody dropped them because they're down a little bit, but

857
00:43:49,239 --> 00:43:52,000
now I'm going to add them, or the upcoming schedule.

858
00:43:52,039 --> 00:43:54,719
I think that's another factor in there. What do you

859
00:43:54,880 --> 00:43:57,760
look at as most important victor when you're trying to

860
00:43:57,760 --> 00:43:58,280
make an ad.

861
00:43:59,840 --> 00:44:04,079
Speaker 3: Are we talking specifically dynasty or redrafts or what are

862
00:44:04,119 --> 00:44:04,679
we talking about?

863
00:44:04,679 --> 00:44:08,480
Speaker 2: Because I was thinking more about redraft here, because obviously

864
00:44:08,519 --> 00:44:12,880
the longer you're expecting to keep a player, then the

865
00:44:12,880 --> 00:44:16,000
more you are likely to go into the long term

866
00:44:16,079 --> 00:44:18,719
underlining number type things. And I think that's if I'm

867
00:44:18,719 --> 00:44:20,639
really like, I've only got a few moves to make

868
00:44:20,679 --> 00:44:25,119
this season. But after a certain point, every league, including

869
00:44:25,159 --> 00:44:27,960
a dynasty league, turns into a redraft league because you're

870
00:44:28,000 --> 00:44:31,239
doing the tactics of trying to win the HW. So

871
00:44:31,320 --> 00:44:34,519
if you're picking up somebody for maybe he's not mister right,

872
00:44:34,599 --> 00:44:37,119
but he's mister right now. What are the things that

873
00:44:37,719 --> 00:44:40,880
you look at to say, of all the players that

874
00:44:40,920 --> 00:44:43,719
I could take for the next month or the next week,

875
00:44:44,159 --> 00:44:45,320
this is the one I'm gonna pick.

876
00:44:48,199 --> 00:44:49,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's a good question. And yeah, the

877
00:44:49,960 --> 00:44:53,920
more you get into dynasty, there's that narrows the options

878
00:44:53,920 --> 00:44:56,400
a bit, because in some dynasties that are deep enough,

879
00:44:56,480 --> 00:45:00,840
it's just whoever's available or limited options. And as you

880
00:45:00,880 --> 00:45:04,519
get more into keepers and more shallow leagues, and there's

881
00:45:04,559 --> 00:45:06,360
more things to consider. I think, so it's a more

882
00:45:06,360 --> 00:45:10,760
interesting question. I wanted to address the idea of someone

883
00:45:10,840 --> 00:45:14,400
being due. I just think that's a ridiculous idea. I

884
00:45:14,440 --> 00:45:18,199
don't think it really exists. Quite frankly, if you being due,

885
00:45:18,280 --> 00:45:21,119
I personally this is maybe my bias opinion, but I

886
00:45:21,119 --> 00:45:24,039
think someone who believes in that doesn't understand math, because

887
00:45:24,039 --> 00:45:26,519
it doesn't really work that way for the most part.

888
00:45:26,559 --> 00:45:29,320
There are some events that are like, if you have

889
00:45:29,400 --> 00:45:32,840
someone shooting one percent and their career average is twelve

890
00:45:32,960 --> 00:45:35,960
or something, then to some extent you expect that to

891
00:45:36,119 --> 00:45:38,079
regress to the me and I understand maybe you could

892
00:45:38,079 --> 00:45:41,039
say that being due, but there's nothing that says someone

893
00:45:41,079 --> 00:45:43,840
can't go on a twenty game cold streak and not score.

894
00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:47,440
And if you drad someone game ten of that streak,

895
00:45:48,400 --> 00:45:50,360
you might be in for ten more games of them

896
00:45:50,360 --> 00:45:52,719
not scoring. Right, It doesn't mean that they're necessarily going

897
00:45:52,760 --> 00:45:56,639
to start scoring, none of that. Like each event, each

898
00:45:56,880 --> 00:46:00,239
game is one of these random events where the outcome

899
00:46:00,039 --> 00:46:03,079
could be zero, one, two, three, four, whatever, however many

900
00:46:03,079 --> 00:46:05,760
points and so it's essentially like a new coin flip

901
00:46:05,800 --> 00:46:08,519
every time to some extent. So I don't really believe

902
00:46:08,559 --> 00:46:10,599
in that idea at all, Jesse, And you can tell

903
00:46:10,639 --> 00:46:14,599
me if I'm missing something there, I definitely look at

904
00:46:14,760 --> 00:46:17,840
I think the schedule is the most important thing in

905
00:46:17,920 --> 00:46:22,920
terms of just that specific league. I was just listening

906
00:46:22,960 --> 00:46:25,800
to some of our friends podcasts about who's on the

907
00:46:25,880 --> 00:46:29,719
top line in this, and frankly, that kind of noise

908
00:46:29,880 --> 00:46:32,800
just really bothers me, because, oh, this guy had got

909
00:46:32,880 --> 00:46:35,320
on the top line in the last three minutes of

910
00:46:35,320 --> 00:46:37,360
the game when they were up four to two. It's

911
00:46:37,440 --> 00:46:39,639
who cares is not going to continue? We don't know

912
00:46:39,960 --> 00:46:42,400
like that. So sometimes I just seem like it's I

913
00:46:42,400 --> 00:46:45,480
feel like it's too much in the weeds. If someone

914
00:46:45,639 --> 00:46:47,320
now on the opposite side of that, I might be

915
00:46:47,360 --> 00:46:49,920
too slow to react and someone might go pick up

916
00:46:49,960 --> 00:46:51,679
that player and they might stay there for three or

917
00:46:51,679 --> 00:46:53,639
four games. And I understand that, and I'm willing to

918
00:46:53,679 --> 00:46:57,880
accept those losses because I personally want to see it

919
00:46:57,960 --> 00:47:00,360
for a little bit longer. I want to see that

920
00:47:00,440 --> 00:47:02,800
top and that the deployment changes certainly matter. I'm not

921
00:47:02,840 --> 00:47:04,239
saying they don't, but I think they need to be

922
00:47:04,239 --> 00:47:07,239
a little bit more sustainable, Like I would say at

923
00:47:07,320 --> 00:47:10,599
least a couple of games, if not obviously longer. But

924
00:47:10,599 --> 00:47:12,639
then you're playing a game of chicken, or how long

925
00:47:12,679 --> 00:47:16,079
can I wait until someone else adds him? So there's

926
00:47:16,119 --> 00:47:17,920
a bit of that. And if it depends on your team,

927
00:47:18,400 --> 00:47:21,280
if one of the really underlying or one of the

928
00:47:21,320 --> 00:47:25,360
really underused strategies and redraft is if you're pretty unlikely

929
00:47:25,400 --> 00:47:27,039
to win, like you should just pack it in and

930
00:47:27,079 --> 00:47:29,119
stack your team for the next week. You know what

931
00:47:29,119 --> 00:47:31,599
I mean, because there are times where like this happened

932
00:47:31,599 --> 00:47:34,199
to me last week. I was getting destroyed about seventy

933
00:47:34,199 --> 00:47:36,519
points on Monday, and I was just like, Okay, this

934
00:47:36,599 --> 00:47:38,840
is it's not gonna be my week. And so the

935
00:47:38,920 --> 00:47:40,800
earlier you can accept that, the better, and then you

936
00:47:40,840 --> 00:47:42,960
can turn around and now I'm competitive in the set

937
00:47:43,000 --> 00:47:45,719
and this third week against someone I probably shouldn't have been,

938
00:47:45,760 --> 00:47:48,400
but I added, I used all my ads last week

939
00:47:48,400 --> 00:47:50,760
to stack this Monday, and so I got a bit

940
00:47:50,760 --> 00:47:52,599
of a head start. Probably the other guy did. So

941
00:47:53,039 --> 00:47:55,400
I think really playing the schedule and understanding where your

942
00:47:55,440 --> 00:47:57,960
team is at and where it's realistic to go, I

943
00:47:58,000 --> 00:48:02,760
think is really important. And in terms of recent performances,

944
00:48:03,039 --> 00:48:04,760
there are a couple things that I like to look at.

945
00:48:04,800 --> 00:48:08,119
I like to look at roster percent that gives you

946
00:48:08,199 --> 00:48:10,760
just a general idea of maybe someone's out there who

947
00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:14,320
shouldn't be. Maybe there's a good reason why, maybe they're

948
00:48:14,360 --> 00:48:16,840
out for a long time, or maybe they're just ice

949
00:48:16,880 --> 00:48:19,440
cold and have poor deployment, but people have been rostering

950
00:48:19,480 --> 00:48:22,239
them because they thought they'd be get good deployment. So

951
00:48:22,280 --> 00:48:24,199
I think that's one quick screen of a way that

952
00:48:24,239 --> 00:48:26,320
I like to look at it. I also like to

953
00:48:26,320 --> 00:48:28,559
look at like the last fourteen days or so and

954
00:48:28,599 --> 00:48:32,280
just see who's doing what. I'd like to look at,

955
00:48:32,519 --> 00:48:35,239
even if they're not scoring. Look at shots in terms

956
00:48:35,280 --> 00:48:37,960
of just raw numbers, and time on ice is another

957
00:48:37,960 --> 00:48:40,239
big thing I look at because oftentimes, if I'm looking

958
00:48:40,280 --> 00:48:42,639
for someone to stream, I don't want someone playing twelve

959
00:48:42,639 --> 00:48:45,400
minutes a night. At least give me someone who's playing

960
00:48:45,440 --> 00:48:48,119
eighteen to twenty. There's sometimes double the amount of time

961
00:48:48,519 --> 00:48:50,320
that you can expect to do something. That's a big one.

962
00:48:50,360 --> 00:48:51,840
Early on, I didn't really look at that, and I

963
00:48:51,880 --> 00:48:53,800
realized I was streaming guys that were playing like eight

964
00:48:53,840 --> 00:48:55,800
or nine minutes a night, and it's what, Yeah, what

965
00:48:55,880 --> 00:48:58,079
did you really expect them to score in those nine minutes?

966
00:48:58,440 --> 00:48:59,880
But they might have had a couple of points in

967
00:49:00,079 --> 00:49:02,840
game beforehand, So the numbers look good in terms of

968
00:49:02,960 --> 00:49:06,039
underlying numbers that I definitely like to go and look

969
00:49:06,079 --> 00:49:09,239
at like evolving hockey and just look at who's driving play,

970
00:49:09,239 --> 00:49:14,760
who's individual expected goals on the team is better. I

971
00:49:14,800 --> 00:49:18,039
also that helps me to pick up guys who maybe

972
00:49:18,039 --> 00:49:21,400
are producing yet but or do and individual corsi four

973
00:49:21,519 --> 00:49:23,880
is another thing you can look for, that's who's driving

974
00:49:23,920 --> 00:49:27,039
shots and who's generating even if they're not converting or

975
00:49:27,039 --> 00:49:29,599
maybe their linemates aren't converting. And on the other hand,

976
00:49:29,599 --> 00:49:31,960
I also like to look at corsi against and expected

977
00:49:31,960 --> 00:49:35,000
goals against because that tells me someone's deployment is probably

978
00:49:35,000 --> 00:49:38,239
going to drop if they're really maybe they're getting lucky

979
00:49:38,719 --> 00:49:42,199
and they're scoring some points, but they're not driving play well.

980
00:49:42,360 --> 00:49:46,519
I think there if you see that oftentimes there's deployment changes.

981
00:49:46,519 --> 00:49:48,360
They maybe moved off the line, or they maybe move

982
00:49:48,440 --> 00:49:50,519
down the lineup, and you might want to get out

983
00:49:50,559 --> 00:49:53,480
before the bottom drops out. So I think there's a

984
00:49:53,519 --> 00:49:55,679
couple of different ways to look at. But for the

985
00:49:55,679 --> 00:49:58,719
most part, I think in most free draft leagues you're

986
00:49:58,760 --> 00:50:03,599
looking at guys that just fit the schedule. I think

987
00:50:03,639 --> 00:50:06,480
that's pretty much like one, two, and three for me,

988
00:50:07,039 --> 00:50:09,360
and then I look at some of those under underlying things.

989
00:50:09,920 --> 00:50:12,320
The only other thing I would add is that sometimes

990
00:50:12,599 --> 00:50:14,920
you want to see who might be a season long hold,

991
00:50:15,199 --> 00:50:17,639
because there are always these guys that are forty to

992
00:50:17,639 --> 00:50:21,039
fifty point players and like top of the waiver wire,

993
00:50:21,519 --> 00:50:25,599
and then they break out and become full roster players.

994
00:50:25,920 --> 00:50:28,159
And probably will be for a long time. But you

995
00:50:28,199 --> 00:50:31,400
want to catch those guys obviously while you can. And

996
00:50:31,440 --> 00:50:33,599
those are the league winners, guys that were free agents

997
00:50:33,599 --> 00:50:36,440
and then they turn out to be seventy plus point

998
00:50:36,519 --> 00:50:39,800
players if obviously you want to take a look out

999
00:50:39,800 --> 00:50:42,280
for those guys. So oftentimes those are prospects for getting

1000
00:50:42,320 --> 00:50:45,599
the right number of games. Or there's someone who has

1001
00:50:45,599 --> 00:50:47,440
always had a good pedigree but didn't have the right

1002
00:50:47,440 --> 00:50:49,480
opportunity until right now, and now all of a sudden,

1003
00:50:49,480 --> 00:50:52,519
they're playing eighteen to twenty minutes a night. Okay, now's

1004
00:50:52,519 --> 00:50:54,679
the time to potentially hold them for the whole season,

1005
00:50:54,760 --> 00:50:56,880
because before that they might have been producing but in

1006
00:50:57,039 --> 00:50:59,519
just not enough time. So those are some other things

1007
00:50:59,559 --> 00:51:01,960
I look at, Jesse, what do you think about those ideas?

1008
00:51:02,280 --> 00:51:07,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I those are good takes on this, Victor, I do.

1009
00:51:07,800 --> 00:51:11,840
I love I love putting the thing together. We started

1010
00:51:11,840 --> 00:51:14,440
this episode talking about puzzles like put it together, like

1011
00:51:14,480 --> 00:51:17,840
a jigsaw puzzle of how many games can I fit

1012
00:51:17,960 --> 00:51:21,719
into my lineup by the end of the week and

1013
00:51:22,000 --> 00:51:24,159
how am I going to get those games? And all

1014
00:51:24,199 --> 00:51:26,800
the things you talked about are things to take into

1015
00:51:26,840 --> 00:51:31,199
account sometimes though, like you said, just the quick and dirty,

1016
00:51:31,440 --> 00:51:36,000
the who's been producing lately, the who has the higher

1017
00:51:36,159 --> 00:51:39,599
roster percentage, other news that you glean very frequently. I

1018
00:51:39,599 --> 00:51:42,639
find you need to win. You need to win the

1019
00:51:42,679 --> 00:51:45,159
matchups you can win. You should be going for it

1020
00:51:45,199 --> 00:51:48,119
this week when you can't do this week anymore. Like

1021
00:51:48,159 --> 00:51:50,239
you said, maybe you have the time to get a

1022
00:51:50,280 --> 00:51:53,239
little ahead of things to stack against next week. But

1023
00:51:54,199 --> 00:51:56,760
that's the that's the game you're constantly playing, is trying

1024
00:51:56,800 --> 00:51:59,760
to find a way to be successful in the here

1025
00:51:59,840 --> 00:52:02,679
and now. So I do is I take the quick

1026
00:52:02,719 --> 00:52:05,719
and dirty of what are the last fourteen day? I

1027
00:52:05,760 --> 00:52:10,559
wear the fourteen and thirty day buttons for passtats out

1028
00:52:10,840 --> 00:52:14,280
on my computer. I'm always looking at what have they

1029
00:52:14,320 --> 00:52:17,320
done for me lately to try to figure out that

1030
00:52:17,559 --> 00:52:20,360
it's a proxy. Yes, there's some luck involved there too,

1031
00:52:20,360 --> 00:52:23,159
but especially when you're looking at things like peripheral peripherals,

1032
00:52:23,880 --> 00:52:26,440
or you're looking at time on ice, those types of things,

1033
00:52:26,719 --> 00:52:30,119
like you said, Corsi four could be a nice approximation

1034
00:52:30,480 --> 00:52:32,519
for it as well. But those are the types of

1035
00:52:32,519 --> 00:52:33,400
things that I'm looking at.

1036
00:52:33,519 --> 00:52:33,800
Speaker 3: Victor.

1037
00:52:33,960 --> 00:52:36,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think we're simpatico on these things, don't you.

1038
00:52:38,119 --> 00:52:39,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think for the most part, I think we

1039
00:52:39,880 --> 00:52:43,159
all have slightly different things that we may look at.

1040
00:52:43,679 --> 00:52:47,639
I know some people who are absolutely looking at who

1041
00:52:47,679 --> 00:52:51,679
hasn't been scoring and maybe getting last line top deployment

1042
00:52:51,719 --> 00:52:54,800
and just expecting them to be due. I don't know

1043
00:52:54,920 --> 00:52:56,519
how well that strategy works, but there are a lot

1044
00:52:56,519 --> 00:52:59,519
of different ways that you can. The thing is, we

1045
00:52:59,559 --> 00:53:02,400
often just remember our hits, right. We don't necessarily remember

1046
00:53:02,440 --> 00:53:04,400
the fifteen times it didn't work, but we can remember

1047
00:53:04,400 --> 00:53:06,519
the two or three times it worked really well. And

1048
00:53:06,599 --> 00:53:08,840
I think if you're just really trying to be honest

1049
00:53:08,840 --> 00:53:10,920
with yourself and look at what you do and see

1050
00:53:10,960 --> 00:53:14,360
what actually works the most frequently and not what worked

1051
00:53:14,360 --> 00:53:16,920
that one time and you picked some random guy who

1052
00:53:16,960 --> 00:53:19,000
like scored two goals and you know, so you think

1053
00:53:19,039 --> 00:53:21,920
that strategy was more useful, really try to be critical

1054
00:53:21,960 --> 00:53:25,760
about it and say, okay, no, what really truly works

1055
00:53:25,760 --> 00:53:27,519
for me? And I think personally for me, I've just

1056
00:53:27,519 --> 00:53:30,840
found that sometimes those in game where one game line

1057
00:53:30,920 --> 00:53:33,199
changes aren't enough for me to want to react because

1058
00:53:33,599 --> 00:53:36,559
it often isn't really that helpful. And just playing the

1059
00:53:36,639 --> 00:53:39,239
numbers game in the schedule because by large and redraft,

1060
00:53:39,320 --> 00:53:42,039
unless there's a limit. The team with the most games

1061
00:53:42,079 --> 00:53:45,840
played typically wins more often than not, so just playing

1062
00:53:45,880 --> 00:53:49,119
that game and forgetting everything else for the most part,

1063
00:53:49,119 --> 00:53:50,400
I think is a winning strategy.

1064
00:53:52,159 --> 00:53:54,719
Speaker 2: E meant to that victor. This has been a great

1065
00:53:55,519 --> 00:53:59,199
ride through some of the great fantasy debates. Thank you

1066
00:53:59,400 --> 00:54:01,519
for taking the tour with me. Man. We'll be right

1067
00:54:01,559 --> 00:54:14,360
back to close out of the show before we call

1068
00:54:14,360 --> 00:54:17,159
on ourn episode. A couple more things. Our show is

1069
00:54:17,159 --> 00:54:19,639
brought to you by fantracks dot com. You can play

1070
00:54:19,840 --> 00:54:23,360
fantasy sports leagues at fan tracks. That's kind of the point.

1071
00:54:23,840 --> 00:54:27,519
You can start up ten different types of sports. They

1072
00:54:27,519 --> 00:54:31,320
get the most options. Fan Tracks HQ's got fantasy content

1073
00:54:31,519 --> 00:54:35,920
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1074
00:54:35,960 --> 00:54:40,760
whole team, and our crew includes Craftzer, Ryan, Simone, and

1075
00:54:40,800 --> 00:54:44,239
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00:54:44,360 --> 00:54:48,679
the tidy leagues the Tier Dynasty. Ryan has also been

1077
00:54:48,719 --> 00:54:52,199
known to chip in with some show perrep our. Lead

1078
00:54:52,239 --> 00:54:55,599
scouts are Jeremy V. And Tony. They put together our

1079
00:54:55,679 --> 00:54:59,840
scouting reports and wrangle all the other participants in such things.

1080
00:55:00,519 --> 00:55:02,960
Brandon is our website guru and a scout and is

1081
00:55:03,000 --> 00:55:06,840
helping with prospect ranks and visualizations. If you have skills

1082
00:55:06,880 --> 00:55:08,800
you'd like to lend a show, hit Victor up in

1083
00:55:08,920 --> 00:55:12,159
the Discord email or on x. We're also brought to

1084
00:55:12,159 --> 00:55:15,199
you by Dauber Hockey and Dauber Prospects. Victor is an

1085
00:55:15,320 --> 00:55:19,159
editor there follow us work as well as his other podcast,

1086
00:55:19,239 --> 00:55:23,159
Auber Prospects Report with Peter Harlan. Be sure to check

1087
00:55:23,159 --> 00:55:25,639
out Victor's articles at EP Ringside. He's part of the

1088
00:55:25,639 --> 00:55:29,360
fantasy team there with Cam Robinson and Mike Clifford. I

1089
00:55:29,480 --> 00:55:31,880
do a solo show called Dynasty Sports Life. I talk

1090
00:55:32,119 --> 00:55:35,440
lots of different dynasty sports there. This week you might

1091
00:55:35,480 --> 00:55:38,360
hear a little bit of hockey on there and other

1092
00:55:38,440 --> 00:55:42,159
sports as I do the City Blender Edition. Follow on

1093
00:55:42,559 --> 00:55:45,079
X at fan Hockey Life at victor New Neo twelve

1094
00:55:45,119 --> 00:55:47,960
rate review on Apple Pods, Spotify, wherever else you get

1095
00:55:47,960 --> 00:55:51,559
your pods. Thank you everybody for listening to Until next time,

1096
00:55:51,679 --> 00:55:54,639
keep living that fantasy hockey light