Speaker 1: The Sweet sixteen is upon us.
Speaker 2: Hopefully you guys had a profitable opening round.
Speaker 1: We're gonna see.
Speaker 2: If the chalk keeps on chocking on this week's beat
on it.
Speaker 3: The comment section is gonna say.
Speaker 2: Kelly's tired from Vegas, She's defeated from all the chalk,
and they would be absolutely correct. Shout out to the
Westgates super Book and everybody who came out and hung
out with us that first opening round.
Speaker 3: I am a little beat up, guys.
Speaker 2: That was the second year in a row where a
lot of the favorites came through, the second year in
a row where no mid majors have made it to
the Sweet sixteen. But do you know what that does mean?
Makes for some good basketball. Kelly Stewart here, Yanni Corrales,
Marco DiAngelo. I wanted to ask you guys' thoughts on
that first round before we get into these Sweet sixteen matchups.
Speaker 3: VR. I got to hang out with you and Little Jackpot.
Speaker 2: On Thursday at the clubhouse at the Super Book, and
we had a great time. Thursday was by far my
best day of the weekend.
Speaker 4: Yeah, honestly, it kind of went as expected. Granted, here's
what here's what happened this year. That's a little bit
different than I hear a lot of betters talking about,
and it's the favorites. But historically we have to remember
that when it comes to March Madness, favorites are usually
who advances. Now, that doesn't mean they cover the spread.
That's what the difference maker is, how are they doing ats?
Because we're always searching for Cinderella each and every March Madness.
We're always looking for that Who's Cinderella, Who's going to
make it to the final four. That's not you know,
one two or three ranked team and you're looking for
that needle in the haystack. But we know that historically
that just really doesn't happen. Like how many eight seeds,
nine seeds, ten seeds have ever cut down the net
on Monday of the National Championship Day? Pretty much none.
So like the higher, better ranked team should advance, and
that's usually what happens, but it's how do they do ats?
Because the spread becomes the great equalizer and the difference
maker I think was the favorites not just winning but
covering because betters look for those dogs early in the tournament.
We talked about that Thursday and Friday. Don't be afraid
the bet favorites, because the mentality of the betters is
the opposite. They're coming in there looking for that dog,
looking for that money line score. But then that changes
come Friday, and come Saturday and Sunday. After the first
two days, then they start changing back looking towards the favorites,
and that's when you start should start seeing some of
the dogs get the money, and we kind of didn't
see that, and I think that's where it's a little
bit tough to navigate this year. But overall, I'm happy
with how things have progressed. Again, not the talent, but
I gave out twenty five bets in March madn and
so far sixty one percent, close to a double digit ROI.
So far, so good. Sticking to what I did in
college basketball, up over seventy units for the year. Going
to follow my power ratings till we get to the
national championship and hopefully we give some winners for you
guys today.
Speaker 2: Even Marco came and hung out for just a tiny
bit at the clubhouse. I know he was already gearing
up for Luke Combs on Saturday, so he didn't want
to overdo it. Plus it was hot in there. I
was getting tired. I didn't blame him for not wanting
to hang out. But Marco, what was your synopsis of
the round of sixty four and of course the round
of thirty two from this past weekend?
Speaker 5: Yeah, you forgot the other part. Well, you guys were
in your party and I was working at the West Gate.
I was doing radio show for two hours prior to
me stopping by and saying hello. So yeah, okay, I
get a little bit of a pass there.
Speaker 6: You look at it.
Speaker 5: The first day, as you said, Kelly, was your best day,
and we know why because the Dogs went either ten
five and one or eleven and five depending when you
bet that South Florida game on Thursday. But after that
it was a nightmare and if you talk to the bookmakers,
it was not good for them as far as what happens.
Speaker 6: Everybody likes playing the money line parlays.
Speaker 5: Okay when you get to this time of the year
and all of the chalk was coming home and there
was a tweet going into Sunday's games with the Dog
with the favorite fest that we saw on Friday and
Saturday Favorites of eight or more points were on a
forty five and one straight up run. That's just, you know,
absolutely insane. I know when I talked to you know,
John Murray at the Westgate and Chuck Esposito over at
Stations Properties. Last year was a night mare for them
with all of the moneyline parlays, and it happened again
this year. But they got saved with one team on Sunday.
And that's the thing about when you look to parlays.
Speaker 6: They only need one.
Speaker 5: To take out the majority of the parlays, and that
happened when Florida went down to Iowa.
Speaker 6: That's what you know. Saved the books for sure.
Speaker 5: Off of a weekend that had parlays rolling over live
to the games on Sunday. That saved them. And usually
the books find a way to get saved. And that's
why the books have all those big fancy neon lights
out front. It's not because everybody's beating them. But it
was a great weekend. We love watching March Madness, great scene.
The two days that I was at the Westgate Thursday
and Friday doing the radio there, it's just an atmosphere
like none other. And I say it all the time,
if you've never done March Madness. It's a guy's trip.
It's one of those bucket lists. Come to Vegas. Throw
it in there and is Kelly. We even had Luke
Combe's throw in there for an added bonus, which, by
the way, was a record at Allegiant Stadium. That was
the biggest attendance since the Allegiant Stadium opened up. Was
for the Luke Combs concert on Saturday. So, Kelly, you
and I were part of history on Saturday.
Speaker 2: It was loud in there, and I had some guy
on Twitter It's like, oh my god, you're supposed to
be giving out plays for college basketball and you went
to a concert.
Speaker 3: I'm like, WHOA.
Speaker 2: I was in the suite sweating out High Point. I
just needed to win for me and they couldn't get
it done past Arkansas. That's okay, We're gonna get some
wins this weekend.
Speaker 6: VR.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna let you go first. We're gonna go in
chronological order.
Speaker 2: We're gonna give out a best bet for Thursday and
a best bet for Friday, Purdue seven and a half
point favorite here. And I kind of get where you're
going in this one, but I want you to break it.
Speaker 4: Down for me, all right, And again, this is a
gambling show, and we got a lot of new viewers,
a lot of new betters, so we owe them the
bottom line, and you have to know results to date
and so far, like I said, in college basketball, same
thing like college football, following the power ratings when they
align with what the bettingston because they're doing in its
produced profit. Finishing number one in college football NFL, and
now in college basketball, I've been in top three since
the first week of the season. And with that said,
I've only released four to five percent plays in college
basketball this entire year. Three of them won.
Speaker 6: The only loser was.
Speaker 4: North Carolina up nineteen with six minutes left. That still
hasn't gotten off the show. I'm still pissed about that,
or else we'd be perfect. But another one's coming in
the sweet sixteen. There's a line that's so off, and
I'm bringing that up for this reason only. I haven't
gotten to the window yet with perdue, but I'm going
to share this with you. I have a future on
Purdue at about twenty five to one the win national championship,
and if you could get better than ten to one
right now, which you can get to the window and
bet them. You may not cash that ticket, but they're
going to give you some equity because Perdue is one
of the most balanced and dangerous teams now in this tournament.
They're top fifteen offense, top fifteen defense, and that was
against a top ten schedule. So not only are they
one of the most balanced teams, but they've did done
this against one of the toughest. In fact, it's the
seventh toughest strength of schedule and produce just one of
those non sexy teams that get overlooked. Now, speaking of
those money lines, I would not overlook those because again,
the spread becomes the great equaliser. But there's some value
if you don't get too greedy, and we talked about
that in last week's steam Room and tied up a
bunch of moneyline parlays. You can't get into those six, seven,
eighteen money lines. Don't get greedy. If you find those
two or three money line winners on a day like Friday, Saturday,
Sunday where there's sixteen twenty games, would have you instead
of looking for three or four more games to add
to it. So it pays more, just bet more on it.
I always say that the betters like they're always looking
for that fifth bet. You know they have four and
they're looking for that fifth. So there's could be a
five team parlay. What's wrong with a fourteen parlay that
you just bet more on that you were gonna bet
that was gonna pay for the five. So again I
don't I don't promote parlays. I say stay away from
parlays their negative ev But with that said, if you're
gonna do it, because I know a lot of viewers
a bet for action, they do it for entertainment. They're
not using sports betting as investment. Just don't find a
lot of them off. That's the key. Don't get too
greedy and put up six to seventy eighteen parlays. Now
getting back to Perdue, why they're better than Texas or
better in Texas on both sides of the ball. Texas
is barely top fifty defensively, so that means Purdue is
gonna be able to score on them. Texas is also
barely top thirty offensively, so they're gonna have trouble against
this top fifteen defense in Purdue. And when I look
at the strength of schedule, respectable at twenty but not
like as tough as Purdues. And then looking at how
they come in, Purdue's running hot man. I mean, it's
a team that's now won six straight. Some thought there
would be that letdown after beaten Michigan. That didn't happen.
In fact, they went out there and beat Queens by
thirty plus points, covering that spread and then beating the
hot Miami team that everyone was on lookout for. Purdue again,
I like them as the future. I liked them on
the money line a lot at anything less than minus
three hundred third gift because they easily win this game
three out of four times for sure. And I haven't
gotten to the window, but I think at seven I'll
get there because my power rating has this about minus
eight and a half for Perdue.
Speaker 2: Yeah, VR, that was the one favorite I bet. The
other night was against the University of Texas. I had
the Zags. Was not a fun one, but by my fault,
I think in the clubhouse at some point time, I
sold my soul to the gambling gods for VCU to
come back and win that for me, and then I
just wasn't allowed to win another game for the rest
of eternity.
Speaker 1: We have a big promotion right.
Speaker 2: Now for not only VR, but all so Marco right now,
one year all access.
Speaker 3: Pass is nineteen ninety nine.
Speaker 2: We're gonna give you guys five hundred and fifty dollars
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That makes it under eleven hundred dollars for the year,
less than one hundred dollars per month. And of course,
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with Marco, you're gonna get a free months of odds
logic ACE twenty five Marco twenty five.
Speaker 1: Now let's get in to some more madness.
Speaker 2: And uh man, I was kicking myself for not betting
Nebraska against Vanderbilt. I had the double TV in the
sweet one, back and forth, back and forth. Obviously I
cared about high Point, but I I wanted Vandy to
go down for my futures bet on Iowa State. Now
that the team showed a lot of resilience, then we
get to the airport on Sunday, and here comes Iowa
as a double digit underdog, knocking out the one seed
in all the money line parlays.
Speaker 3: And I'm going, I didn't get I didn't bet Iowa.
Why didn't I bet Iowa? What was I thinking?
Speaker 2: Well, let's be honest what I was thinking. I wasn't
sold on this Iowa team. They play so slow, they're
so methodical. They got knocked out early in the Big
Ten tournament. There wasn't anything they did against Clemson that
necessarily impressed me. And there they go knocking down Florida
in a lower scoring game. And that is actually how
you beat a team like Florida. And that's also how
you beat a team like Nebraska like Iowa did back
on February seventeenth. They played that slow game in the fifties,
they took away that three point shooting from Nebraska and
were able to keep them contained. And then on the
flip side, right after that Michigan game, Iowa maybe plays
for a letdown, as Marco likes to say, maybe they
lose that game twice. Iowa takes Nebraska overtime and then
doesn't cover and loses by nine.
Speaker 1: That is the Iowa team that is in the back
of my mind here.
Speaker 2: Yes they can shoot the basketball, but their defense is
not as good as advertised.
Speaker 1: I think they can easily be exploited here.
Speaker 2: And I like the Nebraska Cornhuskers minus one and a
half on Thursday to get the job done for us.
Marco DiAngelo, there's another.
Speaker 3: One seed that I need.
Speaker 2: To go down, and that would be the Arizona Wildcats.
Break down that game for us. Do we have a
shot at maybe an outright underdog winner taking down a
one seed?
Speaker 5: I don't think so, Kelly. And hopefully we can duplicate
last week's show. We went four and oh with the
plays last week here on bed on It, So tune in.
Hopefully we get this done again Thursday and Friday this weekend,
just like last week.
Speaker 6: I want to promote.
Speaker 5: I'll be back on Friday with Marco's Delhi. I'll take
a look at the Saturday games for you after we
get the results from Thursday, so I'll be able to
help you out some on Saturday as well. This one, Kelly,
Arkansas and Arizona. When you look at it first glance,
you're gonna see an Arkansas team that has scored ninety
seven and ninety four points in its two tournament games
so far, and that's nothing new to Arkansas. This is
a team that loves to go up and down the floor.
And most people are gonna look at this and the
knee jerk reaction is gonna be Wow, I got a
team that likes to score in the nineties. They're getting
eight points. They're from the SEC, and they're gonna remember
Arizona and all the past failures of Arizona teams in
the tournament. But here's the deal. First of all, this
is not the same Arizona team that we've seen in
the past. This is a team that is solid on
both sides of the floor, defensively and offensively. And the
problem with Arkansas is they don't play defense. Okay, what
John Calipari has done there in two years at Arkansas
is nothing short or remarkable, and he pulled off winning
the SEC tournament and that really had to make him
happy a little, you know, fu to the alumni of
Kentucky that kind of forced him out of town. But
this is a spot where they don't make stops. And
I'm looking at Arizona. They've held fifteen of their last
nineteen opponents to forty one and a half percent shooting
or less. They've held no one in the last twelve
games is top eighty points on them, and seven of
those last twelve they've held the opponent to under seventy points.
This is contrasting styles. Arkansas is going to be frustrated
when Arizona slows them down. And as far as Arizona
goes after facing the slower, deliberate style of Utah State
in their last matchup in Utah State, I know they're
from the Mountain West, but they do play good defense
and they can slow it down. This is gonna be
a welcome site for Arizona to see Arkansas wanting to
go up and down the floor. When you're better than
your opponent on both sides of the basketball offensively and defensively,
and the other team wants to play fast, that's great.
Why because that gives you more possessions. And when you
have an edge on both sides of the ball and
you're getting more possessions, what's that mean. That's gonna be
mean you're gonna have more successful trips. More successful trips
mean extending leads. I'm laying it here with Arizona and
I see them winning this one double digit comfortably. The Cinderella.
I don't want to call them a Cinderella, but nobody
saw this coming from Arkansas in year two with John Callapari.
Speaker 6: The run ends here, Arizona moves on.
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the Friday slate VR.
Speaker 2: This is a game that kind of has my head
in a pretzel. I've seen sharp guys on both sides
of Saint John's.
Speaker 3: Duke, this numbers come down.
Speaker 2: Duke opened a seven and a half point favorite, down
to six and a half. Now I need Duke to
go down. I know I'm engineers under and I need
Duke to go down to if I have any shot
at cashing this future is ticket or at least being
able to guarantee myself a profit. Saint John's has been
really exciting, But do you think they can hang with
the Blue Devils?
Speaker 4: I really don't, cal And you're right, there are sharps
on both sides of this matchup. I have not released
the premium yet, so just want to make that disclaimer.
So I haven't gotten to the window. But the blueprint
is being drawn up as we speak, and I'm already
leaning hard towards the Duke's side, I can give you
three one right here. I have Duke as a future,
A fine percent on Duke to win at all. Just
bottom line, they're the best team. Now, we know in
sports that we don't have five seven game series. The
cream doesn't always rise to the top. But still, after
Duke got that scared by Sienna and they weren't no
longer the favorite, I had to step in and take
advantage and release a future to my subscriber. So I
am on Duke on a future. So I do like
Duke here, not hedging it at all. I will not
be taking the points with Saint John's. It's going to
be either Duke or pass. And the bottom line is this.
We saw Saint John's play a really tough defense in
Connecticut and get the best of them like that. That's
going to be comparable of what they're going to be
facing against Duke. The difference is Duke's not going to
be held to thirty percent shooting like Connecticut was. Saint
John's just doesn't have the defense to shut Duke down
like that. And I don't think Saint John's going to
have the success they did again, like being able to
shoot coast to fifty percent from the field and have
that many fifty six possessions against Connecticut. It is difficult, difficult,
difficult to do. I expected a regression from this team.
We didn't see it in that last game. But they're
so due, like they're playing above their heads right now,
and it's a team like Duke standing in front of
you that that brings the brings them back down to reality.
Duke is just that much better. Again, you're looking at
one of the best defenses in all of college basketball
and an offense that could score from the inside from
the outside. Again, the strength of schedule for Duke that
that gets the negativity, but they've offset that by only
losing two games this entire season. So again, Duke's still
the best team in college basketball. They should be favored
over everyone over on a neutral court, and they're better
on both sides of the ball, veter on offense, veter
on defense, at least on paper, tougher strengths of schedules comparable,
not the tougher strengths of schedule very comparable. And I
do think we're getting a discount on Duke because of
the scares early, like they didn't go in there and dominate.
They didn't beat Siana by forty, they didn't win their
second game by thirty, and because of that, they look vulnerable.
And that's exactly what you want from the best team
in the country, where you're gonna get value.
Speaker 6: Usually you wouldn't.
Speaker 4: You would have to be laying eight and a half
in this spot with Duke. Instead, we may get them
at minus six before this one tips off, and that
at that point I will be at the window with Duke.
Even with my future, I'll still have more risk on him.
I like Duke a lot.
Speaker 2: All right, Marco DiAngelo, we're talking about teams that maybe
are vulnerable.
Speaker 3: We're going to get into this Michigan game.
Speaker 2: Alabama just absolutely trounced Texas Tech. That was a bullet
that I dodged, So things were looking up as I
got to the Las Vegas Airport. I obviously had a
future on Texas Tech before JT.
Speaker 3: Toppin got hurt.
Speaker 2: If you guys saw that from the Kellan Murray Show,
you guys can still make fun of me for the
rest of eternity.
Speaker 3: Marco, you like the favorite here.
Speaker 2: We're a bunch of shocking weasels today on beat on
It tell me why you think Alabama is not going
to cover against Michigan.
Speaker 5: Oh, Kelly, As you said, both teams are coming in
this off of back to back blowouts in the first
two rounds, but Alabama actually looks more impressive, and the
reason being because, and I hate to say it, I
didn't dodge at bullet with Texas Tech because of their
blowout of Texas Tech. Yes, Michigan blew out Saint Louis,
but people don't look at the Atlantic Ten like they
look at the Big Twelve Conference with Texas Tech. So
that looked like a more impressive win for Alabama. And
then again, just like I said in my breakdown of
the other game with Arizona and Arkansas, you got a
team that scores a ton of points. Here's an SEC
team that likes to go up and down the floor
in Alabama. Both of these teams are top ten teams
in offensive efficiency. But that's where the com comarrison the
similarity stop. There's no comparison when you look at the
two teams defensively. Michigan is also a top ten defensive team,
where Alabama they're like two twenty one. Okay, they're not
good there, and that's going to cost them in this game. Now,
I know what people look at Michigan and they can't
get it out of their head, even though they went
eight and one down the stretch to their last nine
games straight up since they lost to do Remember that game.
Speaker 6: It was a Saturday in late February. Big game.
Speaker 5: You know, you generally don't get a matchup like that,
two power conferences in two heavyweights playing an out of
conference game at that time, a lot of build up.
It was held on a neutral floor in Washington, and
Duke took it to them and got the win. They
dominated them defensively in that game. And it was from
that point on that Michigan, even though they were their games,
just didn't look like the same team. They were just
doing enough to get by. They only went two and
seven against the spread on an eight and one straight
up record. But now that they got into the tournament,
to me, it looks like they hit that light switch,
so to speak. Okay, maybe they got bored during the
regular season. This is the real deal now, and I
think that defense of theirs is gonna be the difference
in this game against Alabama. And again, when you got
a team that likes to play fast, you're gonna get
more possessions in the game, and more possessions to the
team that has a decided edge is a benefit. You
benefit to me laying the points. And I know, I
knew Kelly would throw the chockeys and talkie eating weasel
phrase out there, but you know what, I got to
play the games as I see them, and I see
Michigan advancing, and I see Michigan having a comfortable lead. Here,
hit your file shots down the lane, down the stretch
and this should be an easy fourteen to sixteen point
win and cover the spread.
Speaker 2: Well, Marco, if you can't beat him, join them. I'm
giving out all chalk two on today's show before I
get into my best bet for Friday Night, Ace twenty five,
Marco twenty five. Right now, it's almost two thousand dollars
for an all excess pass on sale for less than
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Speaker 3: Both guys, you're gonna.
Speaker 2: Get eight free month to odds Logic if you guys
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Kelly in Vegas gets you a free week on me.
Now let's get into this Friday night game, which I'm
really glad that Iowa State got Friday night, the last
night game of the Sweet sixteen, because there may be
a shot they get Joshua Jefferson back. As you guys know,
so he got hurt against Tennessee State, was out the
game previously there against Kentucky, and it took him a
little while in that first half to start to gel
against the Wildcats, and then they just blew it open
in the second half. That is what Iowa State does.
They exploit their opponents's weaknesses and well balls weakness one
hundred and fifty first and effective field goal percentage. I
don't know what the Cyclones have for weakness, not after
seeing them over the last couple of weeks. Not much
to exploit here outside of making their free throw. So
I'm going to lay four and a half here with
the Cyclones. Yes, little asterisk I do have a futures
bet on them, but I do love one of the
most experienced teams left in March. And how can we
talk about Tennessee if we didn't talk about thirteen?
Speaker 1: Excuse me fourteen?
Speaker 3: He did cover fourteen and.
Speaker 2: Twenty five against the spread ats record of any coach
in the NCAA tournament. Mister Rick Barnes, give me the
Cyclones minus four and a half as in my best
bet for this week on.
Speaker 3: The show VR Marco, is this our last show? I
didn't discuss with you guys. Are we coming back?
Speaker 6: We're back next week. We're back next week. Preview Fire
and Flour and Kelly.
Speaker 5: One other thing to mention to the listeners if they
can't swing, which is the best deal that yearly package.
We've got a short term package that's a hell of
a deal.
Speaker 6: Right now.
Speaker 5: You want to buy three days for sixty nine dollars,
We'll give you three more days. That's six days for
sixty nine dollars. All plays includes a five percent play.
Ace already told you he's got one. I'm gonna have
one as well, Thursday or Friday in the first round,
and it will take you. Those six days will get
you all the way through this the rest of this week.
Doesn't matter what day you buy. The six days is
going to cover you all the way through the We've
got the n I games, we've got NBA, we've got
hockey and uh with a sheet.
Speaker 6: Who knows. You get to have college baseball.
Speaker 5: You can have soccer, but you know MMA, you got everything,
So pick that up. If you can't afford the full year,
that's another way to go.
Speaker 2: Awesome stuff, Marco VR any parting thoughts before we leave
our audience into this sweet sixteen.
Speaker 4: Yeah again, if you're if you're betting that that the
tournament and you don't have a subscription or smaller bangirl,
don't overlook the steam sheet every day. There's a ton
of information, especially if you're up and coming to handicapper.
Just using that sheet, looking at what games they're betting,
are in the accounts, look at what the line was,
what happened to it afterward, what happens later on. You'll
learn so much about the market. And more importantly, if
someday steamsheet on it not only had the five percent
in there for free because it was upgrade, I have
to let it be known, and three other games that
were upgraded the premium. So whoever bought that for fifteen
whatever was nineteen dollars, got the thirty five dollars five
percent play and three four percent plays for free in
there just because if I upgrade a Steam play or
something that's in the accounts, because I put them in
right away early in the day, if later on I
confirm it, then I just go back in and let
them know. This went out to subscribers. So those guys
got all that information for just that nineteen bucks. So
don't overlook that, especially again if you're looking to handicap
your own stuff. That's of luck. This weekend. Baseball's just
around the corner. I told you about college football college basketball,
and next is MLB that we'll be using these nice
little ratings for. So that's the luck to you all
this weekend, and go Duke, Go Duke.
Speaker 2: All right, we will see you guys back here for
the Final four next Tuesday.
Speaker 3: Here on bat on it.
Speaker 1: Good luck until then, whoo Kelly needs it.
Speaker 3: I'm just gonna leave it at that, don't we all