Speaker 1: Good afternoon.
Speaker 2: You're listening to Gambling with an Edge.
Speaker 1: Now here are your hosts, Bob Dancer and Richard Munchkin.
Speaker 3: Good afternoon, Welcome to Gambling with an Edge. I'm Bob
Speaker 3: Dancer and I'm Richard Munchkin. Today we're interviewing a sports
Speaker 3: better who's calling himself Milkshake. My guess is that's not
Speaker 3: the name on his driver's license, Milkshake. Welcome to Gambling
Speaker 3: with an Edge.
Speaker 4: Thanks Bob, Richard, appreciate you having them.
Speaker 1: Tell us how you guys started in advantage sports betting.
Speaker 5: Yeah, so, my very first dabble into sports betting was
Speaker 5: in twenty twenty, like many people, and I got sold
Speaker 5: by a tout. He said he could hit seventy percent,
Speaker 5: and I was bought in. I didn't know anything about
Speaker 5: gambling really right, like, so seventy percent sounded real to me.
Speaker 5: I had heard the war professionals out there, right, So
Speaker 5: I paid him like two hundred and fifty bucks and
Speaker 5: lose way more than I can afford to lose, and
Speaker 5: it sent me on a path of well, I guess
Speaker 5: I should say. The first thing that happened was they
Speaker 5: set us up at one sports book. Everybody that was
Speaker 5: in the group. Just one sports book there, referral Link,
Speaker 5: and another guy in the group told me there was
Speaker 5: another sports book I could sign up for that had
Speaker 5: different numbers, and I was in Utah at the time,
Speaker 5: so we didn't have a lot of options. I found
Speaker 5: those two books and they did have different numbers, and
Speaker 5: I started asking the guys, how many books do you have?
Speaker 5: Do you care about the number? This has to matter?
Speaker 5: And nobody really cared. They're like, you know, the only
Speaker 5: thing that matters is you win. But that seemed like
Speaker 5: there had to be something there, so it took me
Speaker 5: a while. I stopped following them pretty quickly, and I
Speaker 5: started the wrong journey. I guess that a lot of
Speaker 5: people going. I started looking at other touts. I was like,
Speaker 5: these are the pros, these are the pros that everybody knows.
Speaker 5: And in my journey there on Twitter, I found Alan
Speaker 5: Dinkerson and one of the things that indicated that dink
Speaker 5: was different was the way his profile was set up.
Speaker 5: There was no face, it was a little hamster and
Speaker 5: there was no package to buy. The guy wasn't selling anything,
Speaker 5: but he claimed to be a professional sports better. So
Speaker 5: I messaged him and I told him. I wanted to
Speaker 5: be a professional better. I was interested in that how
Speaker 5: do I go about it? And he directed me to
Speaker 5: be better betters by Spanky, which also led me to
Speaker 5: you guys. And so I just had started absorbing the content.
Speaker 5: And this was in twenty twenty one, and I knew
Speaker 5: I couldn't do this in Utah. I just didn't have
Speaker 5: the outs, but I'd understood the concept just generally what
Speaker 5: Spanky was explaining of top down, if you beat the number,
Speaker 5: you're going to win. So I had that in my belt.
Speaker 5: I had some family down here, but not really anybody
Speaker 5: that I could move in with, so I just decided
Speaker 5: to make the move. I had a virtual job predicting
Speaker 5: contacts for a service center at the time, and so
Speaker 5: I moved to Las Vegas just to start trying to
Speaker 5: figure this out and use sports books. And I laugh
Speaker 5: now looking back on my approach, because I was just
Speaker 5: rotating through the apps on my phone and clicking Circa,
Speaker 5: waiting for it to move right. As soon as Circa
Speaker 5: would move when I was clicking the numbers, then I
Speaker 5: would follow it at other apps. That was my first
Speaker 5: foray into.
Speaker 2: So there was enough lag time between when Circa moved
Speaker 2: and you could jump over to a different app and
Speaker 2: see the old number.
Speaker 5: Yeah, so you know if you're betting MGM Resorts World
Speaker 5: was one of them at the time. Boy, you know
Speaker 5: a lot of those Las Vegas accounts are they're pretty
Speaker 5: slow on the move. So if you're going like I
Speaker 5: was just going NonStop, just clicking on all the numbers,
Speaker 5: I could typically get a couple pops. And I hasn't
Speaker 5: been anything big, you know. I was trying to gather
Speaker 5: data to prove the theory that CLV was even though
Speaker 5: everybody agrees upon it's the agreed upon math, Like when
Speaker 5: you're doing it, it's still especially after being sold by touts.
Speaker 4: I need to see it to believe it at that point, right.
Speaker 5: So the next piece is Spanky put together bet bash
Speaker 5: and he was holding a Twitter space where basically just
Speaker 5: talking about why people should go. And I didn't have
Speaker 5: a large bank roll. I'd moved to Lass Space, I
Speaker 5: wasn't really winning any money yet and so it was
Speaker 5: a large chunk of my bankroll to go. So I
Speaker 5: asked him on the Twitter space why should go? And
Speaker 5: Spanky you know, started explaining a little bit. A guy
Speaker 5: named Vegas Horse Bulls who I know you guys know,
Speaker 5: spoke up and he said, Hey, I'm a professional sports better.
Speaker 5: I'd love to meet you. And that was really the
Speaker 5: start of it. I met Scott I went to bet Bash.
Speaker 5: He convinced me that if there was any one thing
Speaker 5: I was going to do to become professionalist, to go
Speaker 5: to bet Bash. And so I went to bet Bash too,
Speaker 5: and that's where I met my business partner. But we
Speaker 5: didn't start working together right away, as a lot of
Speaker 5: these relationships are, you got to start to get to
Speaker 5: know somebody, especially if you're gonna go launch into business.
Speaker 5: You don't want to dislike them. But I met a
Speaker 5: good group of people there and we just started trading
Speaker 5: ideas after the first Betbash. Didn't really start working with
Speaker 5: anybody right away. It was just trading ideas. And then
Speaker 5: I did a Twitter space with Vegas Horse Pulls where
Speaker 5: we interviewed Spanky kind of in the reverse now before
Speaker 5: the Betbash three, and there was a guy on Twitter
Speaker 5: that just DMed me and was like, Hey, I'm a
Speaker 5: professional better. We want you to move for us. Because
Speaker 5: I asked thank you how to get into moving on
Speaker 5: the podcast and they told me they had references. I
Speaker 5: didn't really care. I think more so I needed the
Speaker 5: references because they were they offered to send me money,
Speaker 5: and so anyway, I agreed. I agreed to it, and
Speaker 5: the next day they sent me ten thousand dollars in bitcoin.
Speaker 1: Had they met too?
Speaker 2: Yeah, you meet somebody and they're willing to just send
Speaker 2: you money like that. I don't think that happens in
Speaker 2: any other business, you know, But I don't think that's
Speaker 2: unique either. In this business. That kind of stuff happens
Speaker 2: a lot.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's how you got started, Richie. Yeah.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Actually a guy I had known a week gave
Speaker 2: me twenty thousand dollars to go count cowards with. But okay,
Speaker 2: so anyway, so now you start moving for this guy exactly.
Speaker 5: So they were UFC originators primarily, so I was moving
Speaker 5: UFC for them. And at this point in time, I
Speaker 5: have almost every account in town. Some of them are
Speaker 5: already on different degrees of limiting, because if they see
Speaker 5: you trying to win, they'll limit you in that fashion.
Speaker 5: That's not true for all of them, but some.
Speaker 4: Of them will.
Speaker 5: But the biggest issue is it sounds like it's a
Speaker 5: lot ten thousand dollars, but then they were asking me
Speaker 5: to fill them like one to three thousand a play.
Speaker 5: Now I have about ten accounts at the time, and
Speaker 5: they're just asking me for a bet at a Vegas account, right.
Speaker 5: So I didn't have the money to fund all the
Speaker 5: accounts on my own or with the funds they had
Speaker 5: provided me. So I moved for them for about eight months,
Speaker 5: and I did everything I could to get them their plates.
Speaker 5: A lot of the time I had to run to
Speaker 5: the Kiosk and go get it in because I didn't
Speaker 5: have enough in the account, and they primarily paid me
Speaker 5: in bitcoin, and if we lost, they would settle in bitcoin.
Speaker 5: My issue with bitcoin is that it fluctuates, and so
Speaker 5: the first time they sent me bitcoin, it took me
Speaker 5: about two days to turn it into cash and I
Speaker 5: lost about fifteen hundred dollars in value. Now nowadays it's
Speaker 5: not as much, but at that time it destroyed my heart,
Speaker 5: like it was so hard. But I'd already agreed to
Speaker 5: do this, so I was pushing for them.
Speaker 2: So they you guys hadn't heard of USDC or USDT
Speaker 2: at that.
Speaker 5: Point at that point in time. That's all we dial
Speaker 5: in now at this point, but that was that was
Speaker 5: the currency. A lot of people used that still, and
Speaker 5: it was what I had used originally when I first
Speaker 5: was betting in Utah, as all the places took bitcoin,
Speaker 5: so that was just the former currency at that time.
Speaker 5: And so anyway, I moved for them for about eight months,
Speaker 5: and I total profit I made in that eight months
Speaker 5: was four hundred dollars, so obviously terrible hourly, worse than
Speaker 5: working at McDonald's.
Speaker 4: Just just just not a good deal.
Speaker 5: And at that point my partner now Asian Lebowski on Twitter,
Speaker 5: he had provided me the numbers for his model. He
Speaker 5: had just been testing things out, wasn't extremely confident in it,
Speaker 5: and we started tracking it, started betting some of it
Speaker 5: not partnered at that time, just testing out, and it
Speaker 5: was really good. From FBS to FCS college football, they
Speaker 5: were both really good. So I pitched them on the
Speaker 5: idea that we should we should work together. And I
Speaker 5: guess I am jumping ahead a little bit. When I
Speaker 5: left those guys, I had only made four hundred dollars, right,
Speaker 5: but I had been doing some top down and I'd
Speaker 5: started to generate a little bit of income off of
Speaker 5: the top down piece in that eight months, but it
Speaker 5: was very small and My bet size was between one
Speaker 5: hundred and two hundred dollars and I was arbitraging. So
Speaker 5: lots of people start out arbitraging.
Speaker 4: There is no.
Speaker 5: More guarantee way to win money than to arbitrage. Just
Speaker 5: the amounts aren't typically going to be very large.
Speaker 2: And you know what, I just want to jump back
Speaker 2: for a second because when you started and you were
Speaker 2: scrolling through your phone switching apps to look for, you know, misspricing,
Speaker 2: was it like a huge revelation when you found out
Speaker 2: that you could have an odd screen that would show
Speaker 2: you Yeah.
Speaker 5: I appreciate that question much because I did skip over
Speaker 5: that piece a little bit, and it is important detail. Yeah,
Speaker 5: Bette Bash, they were laughing at me, and they were
Speaker 5: laughing and they're like, listen, you got to get an
Speaker 5: odd screen. And right after Bete Bash, Bankkots had not
Speaker 5: yet been released to the public yet. And my friend
Speaker 5: loved this guy to death. He's done so much to
Speaker 5: me with Vegas Horse Pulls. He got me a demo
Speaker 5: or a beta account of Spain Cots before it launched,
Speaker 5: and so that was my first That's where I started
Speaker 5: the arbitrage and the real top down and started generating
Speaker 5: some income as I got span kots, which I still
Speaker 5: use to this day.
Speaker 2: I think a lot of people when they learn this
Speaker 2: whole top down idea, they're doing exactly what you described.
Speaker 2: They see it move in a sharp book and they
Speaker 2: immediately bet it somewhere else. But that is going to
Speaker 2: get you limited very quickly doing that, And it seems
Speaker 2: like there's a whole another level or two levels or
Speaker 2: three levels of top down that kind of go beyond that. Yeah. Absolutely,
Speaker 2: So how did you first of all, did you lose
Speaker 2: all your accounts chasing steam so to speak or it?
Speaker 2: And how did you learn kind of the more nuanced
Speaker 2: way of going about it?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 5: So, yes, I lost a lot of accounts early on,
Speaker 5: and I just kind of kept going at it, even
Speaker 5: with the smaller limits, trying to arbitrage, trying to do
Speaker 5: some of the top down piece early on. And this
Speaker 5: Spanky and He's interviewed a lot of top down guys
Speaker 5: and they'll say this as well, to you, like, the
Speaker 5: way to figure out top down is to watch the screen,
Speaker 5: and watch the screen and watch the screen. And I
Speaker 5: have watched an unreasonable amount of hours. I have stared
Speaker 5: at spank gods for quite a few years now, and
Speaker 5: you start to find patterns in the top down because
Speaker 5: you can't fill when the screen is read. So every
Speaker 5: sports book, every trader, every better when the screen is read,
Speaker 5: they know what happened. Right, somebody came and blew up
Speaker 5: the market, most likely a large group. Now are they
Speaker 5: trying to fake it or not? Because they knew they
Speaker 5: were going to make it read? That wasn't an accident, right,
Speaker 5: And so you start figuring out some of these things.
Speaker 5: Then you start finding the patterns. And then another thing
Speaker 5: that I found out if Bette Bousch that really helped
Speaker 5: me is a top down was all the movers, So
Speaker 5: real moving groups, real big moving groups. Their number one
Speaker 5: request from originators is I want a lot down and
Speaker 5: I don't want anybody to notice. So that made me
Speaker 5: understand that when the screen lights up, it's done purposefully
Speaker 5: or could be an accident. So you gave it to
Speaker 5: a new new guy and they went and bet and
Speaker 5: asked four one one account or something, and it blew
Speaker 5: it up. But typically the groups will isolate those people
Speaker 5: pretty quickly and they're not going to get any more action,
Speaker 5: so those those don't last. And then on the other
Speaker 5: side of it, is you want to fill when it's quiet.
Speaker 5: So you hear guys talk about fakes a lot and
Speaker 5: figuring out when those fakes are And so I won't
Speaker 5: give away that the full sauce on. That took me
Speaker 5: a long time to figure out some of these things.
Speaker 5: But there are patterns all throughout the betting market. And
Speaker 5: if you're looking at just the legals in the United States,
Speaker 5: where you're looking at just Chris circum Penny, you're missing
Speaker 5: such a large market out there. There are guys from
Speaker 5: the UK moving, there, guys from Australia moving. There are
Speaker 5: guys all over the place moving this action. And the
Speaker 5: number one thing when they say keep it quiet, that
Speaker 5: just means make sure the American odds screen does not
Speaker 5: turn red right away, right, That's all they're asking for.
Speaker 5: But there are book makers moving all over the place
Speaker 5: off of action that is considered quiet.
Speaker 1: So how do you make bets without making this green red?
Speaker 5: Yeah, that is the great question, Bob.
Speaker 4: There's a there's a there's a lot of layers to that.
Speaker 5: So the number one thing that I can I can
Speaker 5: lay out is you want to be able to bet
Speaker 5: as much as possible without the trader noticing so even
Speaker 5: if it's out a recreational book at certain amounts, the
Speaker 5: trader's going to see that bet at certain times of
Speaker 5: the days, certain days of the week, depending on when
Speaker 5: it is or what type of event it is. Just
Speaker 5: an example, we bet a lot of FCS football the
Speaker 5: FCS Championship game. I tried to fill that game the
Speaker 5: same way I'd been filling FCS all year, very quickly,
Speaker 5: but there was no cover coming in. So the traders
Speaker 5: noticed it right away and they took it out of
Speaker 5: the kiosks for three days after we got about six
Speaker 5: hundred dollars down on each bet that we wanted in there.
Speaker 5: So the number one thing is is to to figure
Speaker 5: out how to make it so that nobody actually sees
Speaker 5: your action. Some of the other ways that you can
Speaker 5: do with some parlays and such. A lot of that's
Speaker 5: been revealed already. There's there's books Ella Who's got a
Speaker 5: book about it, and the round Robins, but there are
Speaker 5: still some of those techniques depending on how you enter
Speaker 5: the bets together and what type of bets you're putting
Speaker 5: in there that are not going to be noticed. And
Speaker 5: then the other way Bob is is we get losing
Speaker 5: betters that have great accounts already, and I get the
Speaker 5: breakdown of what they've been putting in there, and I
Speaker 5: try to fit our stuff right in with those so
Speaker 5: that they can stay alive not be noticed. And then
Speaker 5: these guys already don't move the market. They can come
Speaker 5: in and bet like ten dimes and nothing's moving that
Speaker 5: the sports book will leave it alone.
Speaker 4: If it's a major market.
Speaker 1: Your bet with six hundred dollars for the FCS Championship game,
Speaker 1: that doesn't sound like a big bet to me. Why
Speaker 1: would that?
Speaker 4: Yeah a red flag.
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's their consecutive three hundred dollars bets. And the
Speaker 5: reason is it did a red flag is we're filling
Speaker 5: side total and they just noticed what was happening and
Speaker 5: they knew that wasn't recreational action. They can tell pretty quickly.
Speaker 5: That's why I mean, you can't let them see right like,
Speaker 5: if you're betting at a physical location, if they get
Speaker 5: their eyes on those bets, they're going to be able
Speaker 5: to tell. It doesn't matter the amount. I've been limited
Speaker 5: early on betting one hundred dollars a game because I
Speaker 5: was getting closing line value. They were able to tell,
Speaker 5: and so the patterns that are coming in that there's
Speaker 5: just not a not a wreck better out there that's
Speaker 5: gonna bet in that fashion because they can just go
Speaker 5: to the counter if they want more than what the
Speaker 5: Kiosk is offering.
Speaker 2: So what percentage of your action now is top down
Speaker 2: versus your partner originate some things versus moving for someone outside?
Speaker 5: Yeah, right now, only about five to three percent of
Speaker 5: our action is moving for somebody else. It just wasn't
Speaker 5: something that we really enjoyed. Might do some after that
Speaker 5: bash this year with a few more groups, but really
Speaker 5: what we're looking for is people to move for us.
Speaker 5: So this last season, thirty percent of our action was
Speaker 5: the model and it was our own origination FCSFBS football,
Speaker 5: that's the only thing we originate. And then the entire
Speaker 5: rest of it is a form of top down. Some
Speaker 5: of it is just from what we're finding in the screen.
Speaker 5: Some of it is trends, some of it is understanding
Speaker 5: just where a sports book is extremely weak at and
Speaker 5: the wheel target some of those things. And there are
Speaker 5: also there is information on Twitter that is freely available
Speaker 5: that people constantly ignore as non valuable, and we find
Speaker 5: the valuable information on there, and then we utilize that
Speaker 5: information to make money. One guy that gives out information
Speaker 5: on Twitter for free has helped us generate over one
Speaker 5: hundred thousand dollars just in twenty twenty six, and it's
Speaker 5: just from information that was free online Twitter. So there
Speaker 5: is a lot of different ways to do what we
Speaker 5: would call top down. It's a very broad generalization, but
Speaker 5: it is still the majority of our action. Because football
Speaker 5: season is just not that long, are.
Speaker 2: You in the prediction markets?
Speaker 5: Very little comes from us right now. We are setting
Speaker 5: up to utilize it in football season and we plan
Speaker 5: to be making on there with our numbers along with
Speaker 5: some technology that we're having. One of our partners helped
Speaker 5: us out with. But I live in Nevada and my
Speaker 5: partner lives in Michigan, and so we were taking early
Speaker 5: on and there are some unique things that you can
Speaker 5: find on there from the taking side that are offered
Speaker 5: by the Kalshi Trading team particularly that are very beautible.
Speaker 5: But we got shut out on you know, with the
Speaker 5: inductions both of us, so it wasn't something we lasted
Speaker 5: long in taking. But we're going to be working with
Speaker 5: somebody else for the making side of it and getting
Speaker 5: those numbers up online.
Speaker 1: And you say you'd like to get movers, meaning other
Speaker 1: people working for you, and presumably it wouldn't be hard
Speaker 1: to get people who are willing to take your ten
Speaker 1: thousand dollars and how do you evaluate their honesty and
Speaker 1: their commitment and stuff like that.
Speaker 5: Yeah, so the traditional moving deal that I spoke of
Speaker 5: early on isn't one that we offer anybody. But it's
Speaker 5: not something that we have ran into or need. Thanks
Speaker 5: to bet Bash, there are plenty of guys out there
Speaker 5: that just want good numbers. And if you have a
Speaker 5: reputation and you can show that you can win long term,
Speaker 5: provide what your ROI is, Provide what your closing line
Speaker 5: value is if it is a market that needs closing
Speaker 5: line value to be beat. If it's not, then they're
Speaker 5: going to go off the ROI and the amount of
Speaker 5: bets there. So the other deal we do is we're
Speaker 5: trying to find wells, the ips. They have their own
Speaker 5: money already in the accounts, they don't need our money,
Speaker 5: so we're splitting the bets with them, and then we
Speaker 5: settle up. Typically it'll be every week settle it, will
Speaker 5: send the thing. But once we build relationships that the
Speaker 5: number just kind of stays on paper for a lot
Speaker 5: and goes up and down and fluctuates and gets paid
Speaker 5: off when we typically owe a third party money that
Speaker 5: we both know.
Speaker 1: So it sounds like that has a potential of you
Speaker 1: getting burned.
Speaker 5: Yeah, there is. There is absolutely the potential of us
Speaker 5: having one of our guys. But we could go up
Speaker 5: really large and then they could run off with that. Luckily,
Speaker 5: at this point in time, we've never had that happen.
Speaker 5: How do we evaluate it? It's a good question, you know, like,
Speaker 5: and it's an interesting one in the gay listen because
Speaker 5: there's there's you know, oh, he knows this guy or
Speaker 5: he's friends with this person. It's like, well, have you
Speaker 5: guys done real business? Like not really, you know, but
Speaker 5: he seems like a that A lot some of it
Speaker 5: is just taking a chance, ap do you get to
Speaker 5: talk to somebody for a little bit. And a big
Speaker 5: part of it is that they're taking the chance on
Speaker 5: us more so than we are on them. They have
Speaker 5: to put up the money. If we lose and then
Speaker 5: don't pay them, then they would be out whatever that
Speaker 5: figure was, and so we're both taking on that little
Speaker 5: bit of risk there. And if they want to make money,
Speaker 5: long term, they're going to pay us when we win,
Speaker 5: and we're not typically betting into what I would say
Speaker 5: is a soft book maker in the PPH world that
Speaker 5: is not going to pay us. And most of the movers,
Speaker 5: the expectation is that they guarantee the accounts. So if
Speaker 5: they have a reputation as a mover, they're known, then
Speaker 5: they're guaranteeing it. So even if they get stiffed, the
Speaker 5: originators are typically not going to be the ones getting stiffed.
Speaker 5: And most of the major groups that I've talked to
Speaker 5: have that kind of set up one hundred percent at
Speaker 5: this point.
Speaker 2: So you mentioned betting at the key asks, but how
Speaker 2: do you go out and run around and bet at
Speaker 2: kiosks and you can't be watching the board at the
Speaker 2: same time, and betting at kiosks, I mean is really
Speaker 2: time consuming just in terms of driving to the different
Speaker 2: places and having to make multiple bets because they because
Speaker 2: you can only bet three hundred dollars at a time
Speaker 2: or whatever.
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, it can take some time. So typically what
Speaker 5: we are pumping the kiosks full of just where there's
Speaker 5: a large amount of volume is FCS football, and so
Speaker 5: I don't have to be on screen for that. I'm
Speaker 5: my partner around the screen during that time period, and
Speaker 5: we have the numbers beforehand as well before I show
Speaker 5: up as well. So typically I know that these twenty
Speaker 5: games at this price, between this price and this price
Speaker 5: are good, so fill them as much as you pan
Speaker 5: up to this number.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 5: So during football, it does take a lot of time,
Speaker 5: but there's so many people there that it's it's it's
Speaker 5: a beautiful time just rotating kiosk to kiosk, walking around.
Speaker 5: And then I'm not moving proper. I don't want to
Speaker 5: say property. I do move properties, but I'm not typically
Speaker 5: betting different sports books. We're typically targeting one sports book
Speaker 5: and that in Nevada, and so there is some walk
Speaker 5: in there. Is that the main thing is cashing that
Speaker 5: the tickets. Is that the heart is part more so
Speaker 5: than even getting those bets down in the time, because
Speaker 5: we have to cash them without providing an ID or
Speaker 5: a player's card, otherwise we'll get flagged. They'll connect all
Speaker 5: those bets and it could be a major issue. So
Speaker 5: the main thing is keeping those low enough and then
Speaker 5: just going from different place to different place and taking
Speaker 5: care of it and spreading it out and of course
Speaker 5: we do use other people and have them hop in
Speaker 5: on that. But when it's top when we're doing top down,
Speaker 5: So that's an example of the football. But when it's
Speaker 5: top dom, the stuff, as I mentioned, I'm betting is
Speaker 5: not red screen, so I have I can send bet
Speaker 5: to some people and I'll be like, no, you have
Speaker 5: about an hour to bet that, right, like, and it
Speaker 5: is a top down play. And as an example golf,
Speaker 5: we can bet golf on Wednesday nights and have hours
Speaker 5: to fill those positions and we won't move the market.
Speaker 5: And so it's not a ton of time consuming, I
Speaker 5: should say, because I'll go in like a two hour
Speaker 5: window and fill all those positions, right, and then go
Speaker 5: take an hour walk around, cash the tickets from previously,
Speaker 5: and so about three hours in that that total fashion,
Speaker 5: except on college football Saturdays which at seventy and to
Speaker 5: whenever I drop or run out of money.
Speaker 2: So when you're talking about golf, you're not originating that.
Speaker 2: So your your source of truth must be something that
Speaker 2: other people have not realized is there for the taking
Speaker 2: if you have two hours to fill it.
Speaker 5: Yeah, this is something I'm willing to provide. Is I
Speaker 5: hate the idea of a source of truth. I am
Speaker 5: absolutely anti source of the truth top down betting. And
Speaker 5: you see that in the mainstream all the time. Odds
Speaker 5: Jam's got calculators to Pinnacle. People follow Chris blindly, even
Speaker 5: if they have one hundred and twenty five dollars limit
Speaker 5: and circa who limited. People let some of them back in,
Speaker 5: but still these are supposed to be considered the sharpest books,
Speaker 5: and people were using them as the sole source of truth.
Speaker 5: This book moves, I'm going to follow it right, But.
Speaker 2: What I'm saying is that if the golf is a
Speaker 2: top down bet, then you had to read the market somewhere.
Speaker 2: That's that's all I read.
Speaker 5: Right, And so that's what I was just prefacing, like
Speaker 5: just kind of that tradition. And then we're taking a blend.
Speaker 5: There's a lot of different books out there that we're
Speaker 5: going to. It's not necessarily find a source of truth,
Speaker 5: but I'm looking for the fills and how those patterns
Speaker 5: are coming in, and then I'm marking which price which side,
Speaker 5: and then watching it develop, and then by the time
Speaker 5: Wednesday night is there, I have a good idea of
Speaker 5: what side is being filled the most, and what side
Speaker 5: is being filled as quietly as possible, and then we'll
Speaker 5: look for the numbers that are off market still right
Speaker 5: prices that we've thing like, I don't want to give
Speaker 5: an illusion that price doesn't matter. It is everything in
Speaker 5: every sports betting piece, right, but we're going to take
Speaker 5: those off markets that are there. Then they're at a
Speaker 5: book that we can fill quietly and get the volume
Speaker 5: that we want to from there.
Speaker 1: When you make partnerships temporary with other sports betters, is
Speaker 1: this a handshake partnership? Is this signed contracts? How is
Speaker 1: this done?
Speaker 5: I have a lot of handshake deals we have. We
Speaker 5: have done some contracts. The way the lawyer explained it
Speaker 5: to us is the main thing is having some sort
Speaker 5: of documentation that is where you guys outlined the dell.
Speaker 5: So typically after I've met somebody and I've chatted him
Speaker 5: with him for a while, then when we decided to
Speaker 5: work together, I will send a message saying, hey, just
Speaker 5: wanted to confirm you're you're ready to work with us,
Speaker 5: and they'll say yes, and I'll be all right.
Speaker 1: Perfect.
Speaker 5: So it's a fifty to fifty split on money risk
Speaker 5: money one, but we're both invested equally and we'll settle
Speaker 5: up every Monday, depending on where the figure the figure is.
Speaker 5: So technically that's a legally binding contract. Hopefully we never
Speaker 5: have to use that in court. And if it's somebody
Speaker 5: that we were maybe a little bit more worried about,
Speaker 5: we do have a contract we have had people sign before.
Speaker 5: We brought in a partner for a short period of
Speaker 5: time and he was getting accounts to us from people
Speaker 5: that he worked with. So these are what I consider
Speaker 5: to be T three and Tier four accounts. They are
Speaker 5: pretty far down your social ladder, and the stiff risk
Speaker 5: is very high. Your grandma is likely not going to
Speaker 5: rob us, your mother is likely not going to rob us.
Speaker 5: Your coworker that you've worked with for six months and
Speaker 5: bonded over drinks has a high likelihood of running out
Speaker 5: once I transfer the twenty k into their account or whatever.
Speaker 4: It may be.
Speaker 1: Do you ever find it useful to make camouflage bets
Speaker 1: that are less profitable than usual or even unprofitable, in
Speaker 1: order to keep an account open.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 5: The term most commonly is for this is priming an account,
Speaker 5: and we've had a love hate relationship with this over
Speaker 5: the years. Early on, we lost some DKs and fandles
Speaker 5: and like ten bets, and that's why I was like,
Speaker 5: we have to figure out some other way to do this,
Speaker 5: because this is not working. We cannot pay or make
Speaker 5: a deal with somebody for an account and lose them
Speaker 5: in this fashion. So on the priming of the accounts,
Speaker 5: we will put in some things that are considered to
Speaker 5: be not as positive as we would like. So I
Speaker 5: may have two positive bets in the parlay and then
Speaker 5: the third bet isn't. But just an example, like we
Speaker 5: put a five legue World Cup parlay into hard Rock.
Speaker 5: It was given to us by a friend and he
Speaker 5: was like, I love this five leggers, it's awesome. That
Speaker 5: was supposed to prime the account. It was put in
Speaker 5: there too primary account. It won, so it was five
Speaker 5: more bucks to win one hundred and ten thousand dollars
Speaker 5: and it wins on the account. We have lost accounts
Speaker 5: just for winning. This account doesn't lose, it doesn't get
Speaker 5: limited immediately. So now we're trying to prime it, right,
Speaker 5: We're trying to continue to prime it, and so we
Speaker 5: are trying to act like we are escalating our interest
Speaker 5: in gambling. Right, So we placed that five hundred dollars
Speaker 5: one and so once we saw the account wasn't limited.
Speaker 5: We immediately went and put a thousand dollars parlay right,
Speaker 5: and then put another.
Speaker 4: One thousand dollars paraday. After that one loss, put another
Speaker 4: thousand dollars parlays. So this.
Speaker 5: There is a form of priming that has to go on,
Speaker 5: and there is a form of the game that has
Speaker 5: to go on. But we're still going to try and
Speaker 5: put stuff that we believe is going to win long
Speaker 5: term based off of the patterns we're finding, based off
Speaker 5: of information somebody else is providing us. The number one
Speaker 5: thing is you can't bet when the screen is read,
Speaker 5: and you gotta avoid CLV if at all possible, regardless
Speaker 5: of how big the market is, whether it's Major League Baseball,
Speaker 5: UFC on Saturday, if you're getting CLV, the account's going
Speaker 5: to get limited.
Speaker 2: Back to the idea of faking or fainting. Somebody said
Speaker 2: to me that the it might have been used milkshake.
Speaker 2: Somebody said to me that the line forty five minutes
Speaker 2: it's before the game is actually a better indicator of
Speaker 2: the truth than the closing line.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 5: So there was a guy I bet Batch that was
Speaker 5: talking about that this last week, where I think you
Speaker 5: worked for s four one one, and so he was
Speaker 5: talking about that primarily for Major League Baseball. And that's
Speaker 5: a perfect example of the type of stuff that is
Speaker 5: top down right that type of tracking. If you watch
Speaker 5: the Major League Baseball market, any professional that it does,
Speaker 5: there's the early morning betters. There's large groups that are
Speaker 5: moving from six am to ten am. They're filling positions,
Speaker 5: and typically they're blowing up the market because the limits
Speaker 5: are as big. But forty five minutes before start, two
Speaker 5: hours before start, there are other groups filling much bigger pills.
Speaker 5: They're still moving the market, but maybe not as drastically
Speaker 5: as blowing it up. And then right before start, way
Speaker 5: more games than should be based off the logic of
Speaker 5: nobody can beat Major League Baseball without clv are moving
Speaker 5: in massive ways. So there's some theories that that's just
Speaker 5: the REX coming in. The Dodgers is an example. Dodgers
Speaker 5: move in twenty five to thirty cents or whatever right
Speaker 5: before post. Maybe that's the time to come back. On
Speaker 5: the other side, the one thing that I would say
Speaker 5: is there's just there's no absolutes. There are just no absolutes.
Speaker 5: Everybody says NFL MLB can't be beat right before post.
Speaker 5: They are arbable right before post, So that's beatable in
Speaker 5: any way, shape or fashion. That would be considered beatable
Speaker 5: to mean.
Speaker 1: One of your accounts in the past month or so
Speaker 1: is up up, up, and you haven't been restricted yet.
Speaker 1: Will you put that account aside for three months or
Speaker 1: six months or something like that.
Speaker 5: It's an interesting question. There are accounts that we do
Speaker 5: let go dormant depending on where the idea is from
Speaker 5: that got the account. So if we have somebody with
Speaker 5: the Michigan ID betting on a Nevada account and they're
Speaker 5: betting every single day of baseball season, either they do
Speaker 5: moved to and never updated their ID, or somebody else
Speaker 5: has that account, so I not necessarily do it the
Speaker 5: win though, if we take an account for a lot
Speaker 5: of money, we want to make sure that we're giving
Speaker 5: some back in expected value. Depending on the account, I
Speaker 5: should say like this.
Speaker 4: This.
Speaker 5: This is mainly for legals that we're talking about with
Speaker 5: a person's name detached or a VIP, because those are
Speaker 5: the only accounts we particularly care about disguising the action
Speaker 5: because they have they have a ton of value. If
Speaker 5: you can get into the VIP program, if you can
Speaker 5: just keep them alive and be able to bet into
Speaker 5: a rec book. They're they're extremely valuable in that fashion.
Speaker 2: Just going back to the CLV question, my understanding is
Speaker 2: that you can shift the closing line if you're betting
Speaker 2: a lot of money, you can shift the closing line
Speaker 2: right before the off just so that you do intentionally
Speaker 2: do not get CLV, like pay the price to to
Speaker 2: to not have CLV in that.
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's that's not us. We're we're not that size
Speaker 5: of a group. But there are definitely groups out there
Speaker 5: that are concerned with that type of manipulation and are
Speaker 5: doing so to be able to keep accounts longer. That's
Speaker 5: that's why I said, there's just there's no absolutes, right, Like,
Speaker 5: somebody might be moving that line right out close and
Speaker 5: as a top down better you might think, Wow, they
Speaker 5: have the most money, I should follow them, and then
Speaker 5: you're just losing your shirt. And it's because they just
Speaker 5: they're hitting a limited as four one one account and
Speaker 5: just moving the market right and you don't even know
Speaker 5: how much it costs them to move it. You would
Speaker 5: assume based on the limit on the spank Gods that
Speaker 5: it was fifty dimes or whatever it may be, but
Speaker 5: that's just not always the case for.
Speaker 1: Our listeners wanting to get into sports betting. Do you
Speaker 1: have any recommended books or podcasts?
Speaker 5: Well, Gambling with an Edge for sure, there are three
Speaker 5: that I really like, Your Guys is a Risk of
Speaker 5: Ruin and I think John does a great job on
Speaker 5: that one. And the guests he brings on, I've met
Speaker 5: a ton of them. They're all very legit, very interesting stories.
Speaker 5: And then Be Better Better Spanky doesn't, you know, really
Speaker 5: do it much anymore, but his podcast changed my life
Speaker 5: and then the logic of sports betting. So everybody says
Speaker 5: that one for suspisient. I didn't read any other book.
Speaker 5: It was the only sports betting book I ever read
Speaker 5: that wasn't entertaining. I should say only the textbook one.
Speaker 5: There are plenty of entertaining gambling ones I've enjoyed, but
Speaker 5: that was the one just because it helps break down
Speaker 5: the math in a way that's understandable, that changes sports
Speaker 5: from a handicapping to a mathematical equation that's beatable and
Speaker 5: trackable and just logical, like the title says, unlike I know,
Speaker 5: the whole gambling industry is rife with a lot of
Speaker 5: people that say they can win off of all sorts
Speaker 5: of different things. But this one really breaks it down
Speaker 5: into an understandable one.
Speaker 2: What about you don't really have this in Nevada. But
Speaker 2: what about dealing with bonuses? I mean a lot of
Speaker 2: people are original bank rolls with the sports book bonuses.
Speaker 2: But how do you guys handle that? Do you think
Speaker 2: there are tails in using them? To avoid?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 5: Absolutely, do not follow the math that everybody has agreed
Speaker 5: upon and says is what you should do, right, like
Speaker 5: go better down a plus four hundred to plus five
Speaker 5: and a bank real size dependent. Don't do that opt
Speaker 5: to just just don't follow the exact optimal path we
Speaker 5: have that. We're still doing tests on this stuff. It's
Speaker 5: a it's a never ending battle because the books will
Speaker 5: change as well. They'll change those in charge, they'll change
Speaker 5: the way their trackings, they'll upgrade their AI, they'll figure
Speaker 5: out different ways to lock in a player. So one
Speaker 5: of the accounts we have that is doing really well,
Speaker 5: been doing well for a little while now at a
Speaker 5: very recreational sports book. I have never touched a single
Speaker 5: bonus that they have offered. I do not puch any
Speaker 5: of the free bets. I don't touch any of the
Speaker 5: profit boots, nothing that they offer. I don't text back
Speaker 5: the VIP host that's been reaching out like we're just
Speaker 5: kind of ignoring everything on that one. They just keep
Speaker 5: letting us go. So until that one gets shut down,
Speaker 5: we're going to keep doing that, and then we're going
Speaker 5: to try it with another one. Because up until that time,
Speaker 5: or I guess I should say, we had one sports
Speaker 5: book at that same or we had one account at
Speaker 5: that same sports book. We were priming it in a fashion,
Speaker 5: but we were using all the free bets, we're using
Speaker 5: all the profit is. We were doing ten legs and
Speaker 5: game parlays, table tennis, just all sorts of chaos into
Speaker 5: that account, and it went up about thirty eight thousand,
Speaker 5: and they shut it down. There was not CLD in
Speaker 5: that account. We don't know what it was. But one
Speaker 5: of the differences is the playing of the promos. And
Speaker 5: even if you're playing them like so plus four hundred
Speaker 5: plus five hundred, let's say that's the agreed upon off,
Speaker 5: even if you're putting them on a plus twenty two thousand,
Speaker 5: I still think that may raise a flag. Right, this
Speaker 5: guy might not be playing it perfectly optimally, but he
Speaker 5: is still putting it on a large dog. Now, if
Speaker 5: I'm betting two thousand a game, and I go and
Speaker 5: I put a two hundred dollars free bet on a
Speaker 5: minus two hundred or a minus one ten, what does
Speaker 5: that look like? So I feel like I'm in a
Speaker 5: rock and a hard place in that situation where the
Speaker 5: best option is just to ignore them completely. But we
Speaker 5: don't have a ton of data on that yet. But
Speaker 5: it's where we're moving right now.
Speaker 2: Yeah, sometimes it can just speak too much to ignore,
Speaker 2: you know, I.
Speaker 5: Mean right, Yeah, some of the VIP counts. If you
Speaker 5: can get a deposit bonus, we'll take that. We'll take
Speaker 5: a deposit monosa. I should say on once the account
Speaker 5: becomes VI, we've always accepted what they provide, right, you
Speaker 5: want to provide us thousand dolly bets, et cetera. My
Speaker 5: biggest concern with betting the small stuff that they're just
Speaker 5: automatically providing the accounts right now is just that doesn't
Speaker 5: match my bet sizing at all as right, So once
Speaker 5: they provide something that does match with what we're doing,
Speaker 5: will will take them up on that. To we have
Speaker 5: in the past, this account we're not yet, We're going
Speaker 5: to see what happens.
Speaker 1: How do you see what you're doing changing over the
Speaker 1: next few years.
Speaker 5: As long as as long as they allow the prediction
Speaker 5: markets to offer sports books. There's sports odds to almost
Speaker 5: every state in the United States. We're going to be
Speaker 5: heavily moving towards those as most people in a lot
Speaker 5: of ways. But we are in the camp where we
Speaker 5: love high ROI and small edges. So I don't see
Speaker 5: what we're doing changing that much in the next couple
Speaker 5: of years as far as how we're tackling and what
Speaker 5: markets we're tackling. I would rather work expanding the amount
Speaker 5: we can get down on a high edge than moving
Speaker 5: into the tougher markets and trying to get more down
Speaker 5: on the on the smaller edge at this point in time,
Speaker 5: So prediction markets, I.
Speaker 2: Think you're that that makes sense. You said the high
Speaker 2: ROI and small edge and those are smaller bets.
Speaker 5: Yeah, So I want to I want to work on
Speaker 5: getting bigger bets on the higher ROI rather than moving
Speaker 5: into an industry or moving into a market that already
Speaker 5: allows bigger bets but with a lower ry. Got it right, So,
Speaker 5: and uh, there are a ton of legal sports books
Speaker 5: all throughout America and a ton of illegal ones too,
Speaker 5: and so those aren't going away anytime soon. There are
Speaker 5: some like obviously things move and change. We lost Super Book,
Speaker 5: we lost we're losing stations, both unique numbers, but new
Speaker 5: competitors come in right and they're going to be offering
Speaker 5: and unique opportunities. Like with the Caesars kind of takeover.
Speaker 5: I was extremely worried about it at first, as like, no,
Speaker 5: that's the worst one. They'd absolutely don't have in play.
Speaker 5: We have a very hateful relationship with each other, but
Speaker 5: with the way they've kind of structured their relationships with
Speaker 5: some of these other sportsbooks, it just opened up opportunities
Speaker 5: for us. And that was just recent and there are
Speaker 5: there's an ever changing marketplace, so I don't see it
Speaker 5: changing too much. We're gonna get as much of the
Speaker 5: wreck money as we can in the prediction markets, but
Speaker 5: we're not looking to go toe to toe with against
Speaker 5: the other groups out there. That's hard money and we're
Speaker 5: not at a stage yet where we need to do that.
Speaker 5: There is plenty of money just ready to be taken
Speaker 5: all across the United States.
Speaker 1: With top down betting, you don't really have to be
Speaker 1: all that knowledgeable about the games as to whether the
Speaker 1: Cowboys should be a two point favorite, a four point favorite,
Speaker 1: a six point favorite, and all you have to do
Speaker 1: is look for the differences and moves. Is that correct?
Speaker 5: Yeah, in a fashion, we're trying to figure out what
Speaker 5: we believe the fair price to be through the bets
Speaker 5: that are coming in so that we can fill it
Speaker 5: when it's a little bit more quiet. But as far
Speaker 5: as having to have knowledge about the sports zero. I
Speaker 5: care very little about any of the actual sports that
Speaker 5: are going on, and like watching them like who's the thing,
Speaker 5: Like who's the big player? Who's the good team? That
Speaker 5: isn't completely relevant, but what is relevant is the important
Speaker 5: players' names. So I need to know the names of
Speaker 5: certain players. Have to be able to track that because
Speaker 5: injury information is key. You need even if you're not
Speaker 5: betting it because the market's blowing up because underdog released
Speaker 5: to Lebron James injury news, you still want to know
Speaker 5: why it moved right and understand that that piece of it.
Speaker 2: You don't do any in game betting, do.
Speaker 4: You very very little.
Speaker 5: I know there are a lot of guys that do that,
Speaker 5: but my issue, my issue with doing top down on
Speaker 5: the live side is you'd have to use an odd
Speaker 5: screen that is going to market and it's going to say, hey,
Speaker 5: this is this is a good play at this point
Speaker 5: in time, and then you would have to bet it
Speaker 5: when it says that on the screen. And so whenever
Speaker 5: it says it's arpa ball on the screen, whenever it
Speaker 5: says it's something that's nature that's going to be marked
Speaker 5: by the sports book. And we don't want to lose
Speaker 5: our accounts betting these live edges that are pretty obvious
Speaker 5: at this point in time. If there's a way they
Speaker 5: can that, we could feel for somebody that had an
Speaker 5: edge that they felt would be disguised in the live
Speaker 5: market would be a little bit more interested. And if
Speaker 5: you can bet big on NBA Live or something of
Speaker 5: that nature right at the beginning, I think that would
Speaker 5: be where the edge would come in, would be right
Speaker 5: at the beginning of the game. And if you have
Speaker 5: unlimited accounts, A lot of these a lot of these
Speaker 5: groups you hear that are betting live very successfully. They
Speaker 5: have a lot of accounts.
Speaker 1: As we post this, the Dodgers have lost i don't know,
Speaker 1: seven out of eight games something like that, and so
Speaker 1: a lot of recreational better will use that information to
Speaker 1: determine whether they should bet the Dodgers today. So any
Speaker 1: way that you can ride that way and get value out.
Speaker 5: Of that, I don't want to give a blanket, yes,
Speaker 5: because I think that would be an incorrect way to
Speaker 5: do things. But sometimes the models favor specific teams for
Speaker 5: an extended period of time, and sometimes it can be
Speaker 5: just betting on the exact same team over and over
Speaker 5: and over again, almost blindly. For just an example, we
Speaker 5: bet on the Rockies run line one hundred games in.
Speaker 4: A row last year.
Speaker 6: It just it was the play and it was great
Speaker 6: and it was very profitable, and I didn't need after
Speaker 6: we figured it out, we didn't really need to do
Speaker 6: anything except see what the best prices in the market
Speaker 6: in the morning that the Rockies run line.
Speaker 5: So yes, in a way, Bob. But also I don't
Speaker 5: recommend blindly like following a seven game losing streak, because
Speaker 5: that's not predictive in any fashion.
Speaker 2: Well, you wouldn't know which way to bet it, right
Speaker 2: because they lost seven in a row, they're due to
Speaker 2: win or they I guess they're good.
Speaker 4: Yeah, absolutely, just.
Speaker 2: Like Makara players.
Speaker 5: Yeah, they just Paul paull in those streaks, and baseball
Speaker 5: would be one that you could use all of those
Speaker 5: methods from the casino games.
Speaker 1: And thank you very much, Milkshake. This was very informative.
Speaker 1: Thank you, Richard. Go out and hit Royal Flush everybody,
Speaker 1: good day.
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