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<v Speaker 1>Good afternoon.

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<v Speaker 2>You're listening to Gambling with an Edge.

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<v Speaker 1>Now here are your hosts, Bob Dancer and Richard Munchkin.

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<v Speaker 3>Good afternoon, Welcome to Gambling with an Edge. I'm Bob

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<v Speaker 3>Dancer and I'm Richard Munchkin. Today we're interviewing a sports

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<v Speaker 3>better who's calling himself Milkshake. My guess is that's not

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<v Speaker 3>the name on his driver's license, Milkshake. Welcome to Gambling

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<v Speaker 3>with an Edge.

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<v Speaker 4>Thanks Bob, Richard, appreciate you having them.

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<v Speaker 1>Tell us how you guys started in advantage sports betting.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, so, my very first dabble into sports betting was

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<v Speaker 5>in twenty twenty, like many people, and I got sold

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<v Speaker 5>by a tout. He said he could hit seventy percent,

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<v Speaker 5>and I was bought in. I didn't know anything about

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<v Speaker 5>gambling really right, like, so seventy percent sounded real to me.

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<v Speaker 5>I had heard the war professionals out there, right, So

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<v Speaker 5>I paid him like two hundred and fifty bucks and

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<v Speaker 5>lose way more than I can afford to lose, and

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<v Speaker 5>it sent me on a path of well, I guess

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<v Speaker 5>I should say. The first thing that happened was they

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<v Speaker 5>set us up at one sports book. Everybody that was

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<v Speaker 5>in the group. Just one sports book there, referral Link,

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<v Speaker 5>and another guy in the group told me there was

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<v Speaker 5>another sports book I could sign up for that had

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<v Speaker 5>different numbers, and I was in Utah at the time,

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<v Speaker 5>so we didn't have a lot of options. I found

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<v Speaker 5>those two books and they did have different numbers, and

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<v Speaker 5>I started asking the guys, how many books do you have?

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<v Speaker 5>Do you care about the number? This has to matter?

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<v Speaker 5>And nobody really cared. They're like, you know, the only

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<v Speaker 5>thing that matters is you win. But that seemed like

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<v Speaker 5>there had to be something there, so it took me

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<v Speaker 5>a while. I stopped following them pretty quickly, and I

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<v Speaker 5>started the wrong journey. I guess that a lot of

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<v Speaker 5>people going. I started looking at other touts. I was like,

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<v Speaker 5>these are the pros, these are the pros that everybody knows.

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<v Speaker 5>And in my journey there on Twitter, I found Alan

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<v Speaker 5>Dinkerson and one of the things that indicated that dink

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<v Speaker 5>was different was the way his profile was set up.

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<v Speaker 5>There was no face, it was a little hamster and

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<v Speaker 5>there was no package to buy. The guy wasn't selling anything,

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<v Speaker 5>but he claimed to be a professional sports better. So

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<v Speaker 5>I messaged him and I told him. I wanted to

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<v Speaker 5>be a professional better. I was interested in that how

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<v Speaker 5>do I go about it? And he directed me to

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<v Speaker 5>be better betters by Spanky, which also led me to

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<v Speaker 5>you guys. And so I just had started absorbing the content.

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<v Speaker 5>And this was in twenty twenty one, and I knew

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<v Speaker 5>I couldn't do this in Utah. I just didn't have

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<v Speaker 5>the outs, but I'd understood the concept just generally what

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<v Speaker 5>Spanky was explaining of top down, if you beat the number,

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<v Speaker 5>you're going to win. So I had that in my belt.

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<v Speaker 5>I had some family down here, but not really anybody

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<v Speaker 5>that I could move in with, so I just decided

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<v Speaker 5>to make the move. I had a virtual job predicting

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<v Speaker 5>contacts for a service center at the time, and so

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<v Speaker 5>I moved to Las Vegas just to start trying to

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<v Speaker 5>figure this out and use sports books. And I laugh

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<v Speaker 5>now looking back on my approach, because I was just

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<v Speaker 5>rotating through the apps on my phone and clicking Circa,

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<v Speaker 5>waiting for it to move right. As soon as Circa

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<v Speaker 5>would move when I was clicking the numbers, then I

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<v Speaker 5>would follow it at other apps. That was my first

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<v Speaker 5>foray into.

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<v Speaker 2>So there was enough lag time between when Circa moved

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<v Speaker 2>and you could jump over to a different app and

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<v Speaker 2>see the old number.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, so you know if you're betting MGM Resorts World

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<v Speaker 5>was one of them at the time. Boy, you know

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<v Speaker 5>a lot of those Las Vegas accounts are they're pretty

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<v Speaker 5>slow on the move. So if you're going like I

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<v Speaker 5>was just going NonStop, just clicking on all the numbers,

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<v Speaker 5>I could typically get a couple pops. And I hasn't

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<v Speaker 5>been anything big, you know. I was trying to gather

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<v Speaker 5>data to prove the theory that CLV was even though

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<v Speaker 5>everybody agrees upon it's the agreed upon math, Like when

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<v Speaker 5>you're doing it, it's still especially after being sold by touts.

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<v Speaker 4>I need to see it to believe it at that point, right.

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<v Speaker 5>So the next piece is Spanky put together bet bash

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<v Speaker 5>and he was holding a Twitter space where basically just

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<v Speaker 5>talking about why people should go. And I didn't have

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<v Speaker 5>a large bank roll. I'd moved to Lass Space, I

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<v Speaker 5>wasn't really winning any money yet and so it was

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<v Speaker 5>a large chunk of my bankroll to go. So I

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<v Speaker 5>asked him on the Twitter space why should go? And

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<v Speaker 5>Spanky you know, started explaining a little bit. A guy

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<v Speaker 5>named Vegas Horse Bulls who I know you guys know,

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<v Speaker 5>spoke up and he said, Hey, I'm a professional sports better.

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<v Speaker 5>I'd love to meet you. And that was really the

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<v Speaker 5>start of it. I met Scott I went to bet Bash.

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<v Speaker 5>He convinced me that if there was any one thing

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<v Speaker 5>I was going to do to become professionalist, to go

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<v Speaker 5>to bet Bash. And so I went to bet Bash too,

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<v Speaker 5>and that's where I met my business partner. But we

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<v Speaker 5>didn't start working together right away, as a lot of

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<v Speaker 5>these relationships are, you got to start to get to

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<v Speaker 5>know somebody, especially if you're gonna go launch into business.

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<v Speaker 5>You don't want to dislike them. But I met a

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<v Speaker 5>good group of people there and we just started trading

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<v Speaker 5>ideas after the first Betbash. Didn't really start working with

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<v Speaker 5>anybody right away. It was just trading ideas. And then

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<v Speaker 5>I did a Twitter space with Vegas Horse Pulls where

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<v Speaker 5>we interviewed Spanky kind of in the reverse now before

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<v Speaker 5>the Betbash three, and there was a guy on Twitter

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<v Speaker 5>that just DMed me and was like, Hey, I'm a

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<v Speaker 5>professional better. We want you to move for us. Because

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<v Speaker 5>I asked thank you how to get into moving on

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<v Speaker 5>the podcast and they told me they had references. I

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<v Speaker 5>didn't really care. I think more so I needed the

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<v Speaker 5>references because they were they offered to send me money,

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<v Speaker 5>and so anyway, I agreed. I agreed to it, and

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<v Speaker 5>the next day they sent me ten thousand dollars in bitcoin.

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<v Speaker 1>Had they met too?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, you meet somebody and they're willing to just send

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<v Speaker 2>you money like that. I don't think that happens in

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<v Speaker 2>any other business, you know, But I don't think that's

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<v Speaker 2>unique either. In this business. That kind of stuff happens

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<v Speaker 2>a lot.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, that's how you got started, Richie. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, Actually a guy I had known a week gave

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<v Speaker 2>me twenty thousand dollars to go count cowards with. But okay,

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<v Speaker 2>so anyway, so now you start moving for this guy exactly.

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<v Speaker 5>So they were UFC originators primarily, so I was moving

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<v Speaker 5>UFC for them. And at this point in time, I

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<v Speaker 5>have almost every account in town. Some of them are

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<v Speaker 5>already on different degrees of limiting, because if they see

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<v Speaker 5>you trying to win, they'll limit you in that fashion.

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<v Speaker 5>That's not true for all of them, but some.

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<v Speaker 4>Of them will.

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<v Speaker 5>But the biggest issue is it sounds like it's a

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<v Speaker 5>lot ten thousand dollars, but then they were asking me

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<v Speaker 5>to fill them like one to three thousand a play.

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<v Speaker 5>Now I have about ten accounts at the time, and

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<v Speaker 5>they're just asking me for a bet at a Vegas account, right.

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<v Speaker 5>So I didn't have the money to fund all the

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<v Speaker 5>accounts on my own or with the funds they had

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<v Speaker 5>provided me. So I moved for them for about eight months,

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<v Speaker 5>and I did everything I could to get them their plates.

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<v Speaker 5>A lot of the time I had to run to

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<v Speaker 5>the Kiosk and go get it in because I didn't

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<v Speaker 5>have enough in the account, and they primarily paid me

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<v Speaker 5>in bitcoin, and if we lost, they would settle in bitcoin.

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<v Speaker 5>My issue with bitcoin is that it fluctuates, and so

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<v Speaker 5>the first time they sent me bitcoin, it took me

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<v Speaker 5>about two days to turn it into cash and I

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<v Speaker 5>lost about fifteen hundred dollars in value. Now nowadays it's

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<v Speaker 5>not as much, but at that time it destroyed my heart,

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<v Speaker 5>like it was so hard. But I'd already agreed to

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<v Speaker 5>do this, so I was pushing for them.

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<v Speaker 2>So they you guys hadn't heard of USDC or USDT

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<v Speaker 2>at that.

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<v Speaker 5>Point at that point in time. That's all we dial

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<v Speaker 5>in now at this point, but that was that was

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<v Speaker 5>the currency. A lot of people used that still, and

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<v Speaker 5>it was what I had used originally when I first

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<v Speaker 5>was betting in Utah, as all the places took bitcoin,

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<v Speaker 5>so that was just the former currency at that time.

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<v Speaker 5>And so anyway, I moved for them for about eight months,

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<v Speaker 5>and I total profit I made in that eight months

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<v Speaker 5>was four hundred dollars, so obviously terrible hourly, worse than

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<v Speaker 5>working at McDonald's.

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<v Speaker 4>Just just just not a good deal.

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<v Speaker 5>And at that point my partner now Asian Lebowski on Twitter,

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<v Speaker 5>he had provided me the numbers for his model. He

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<v Speaker 5>had just been testing things out, wasn't extremely confident in it,

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<v Speaker 5>and we started tracking it, started betting some of it

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<v Speaker 5>not partnered at that time, just testing out, and it

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<v Speaker 5>was really good. From FBS to FCS college football, they

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<v Speaker 5>were both really good. So I pitched them on the

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<v Speaker 5>idea that we should we should work together. And I

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<v Speaker 5>guess I am jumping ahead a little bit. When I

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<v Speaker 5>left those guys, I had only made four hundred dollars, right,

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<v Speaker 5>but I had been doing some top down and I'd

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<v Speaker 5>started to generate a little bit of income off of

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<v Speaker 5>the top down piece in that eight months, but it

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<v Speaker 5>was very small and My bet size was between one

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<v Speaker 5>hundred and two hundred dollars and I was arbitraging. So

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<v Speaker 5>lots of people start out arbitraging.

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<v Speaker 4>There is no.

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<v Speaker 5>More guarantee way to win money than to arbitrage. Just

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<v Speaker 5>the amounts aren't typically going to be very large.

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<v Speaker 2>And you know what, I just want to jump back

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<v Speaker 2>for a second because when you started and you were

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<v Speaker 2>scrolling through your phone switching apps to look for, you know, misspricing,

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<v Speaker 2>was it like a huge revelation when you found out

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<v Speaker 2>that you could have an odd screen that would show

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<v Speaker 2>you Yeah.

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<v Speaker 5>I appreciate that question much because I did skip over

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<v Speaker 5>that piece a little bit, and it is important detail. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 5>Bette Bash, they were laughing at me, and they were

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<v Speaker 5>laughing and they're like, listen, you got to get an

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<v Speaker 5>odd screen. And right after Bete Bash, Bankkots had not

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<v Speaker 5>yet been released to the public yet. And my friend

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<v Speaker 5>loved this guy to death. He's done so much to

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<v Speaker 5>me with Vegas Horse Pulls. He got me a demo

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<v Speaker 5>or a beta account of Spain Cots before it launched,

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<v Speaker 5>and so that was my first That's where I started

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<v Speaker 5>the arbitrage and the real top down and started generating

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<v Speaker 5>some income as I got span kots, which I still

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<v Speaker 5>use to this day.

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<v Speaker 2>I think a lot of people when they learn this

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<v Speaker 2>whole top down idea, they're doing exactly what you described.

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<v Speaker 2>They see it move in a sharp book and they

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<v Speaker 2>immediately bet it somewhere else. But that is going to

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<v Speaker 2>get you limited very quickly doing that, And it seems

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<v Speaker 2>like there's a whole another level or two levels or

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<v Speaker 2>three levels of top down that kind of go beyond that. Yeah. Absolutely,

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<v Speaker 2>So how did you first of all, did you lose

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<v Speaker 2>all your accounts chasing steam so to speak or it?

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<v Speaker 2>And how did you learn kind of the more nuanced

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<v Speaker 2>way of going about it?

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah?

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<v Speaker 5>So, yes, I lost a lot of accounts early on,

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<v Speaker 5>and I just kind of kept going at it, even

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<v Speaker 5>with the smaller limits, trying to arbitrage, trying to do

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<v Speaker 5>some of the top down piece early on. And this

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<v Speaker 5>Spanky and He's interviewed a lot of top down guys

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<v Speaker 5>and they'll say this as well, to you, like, the

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<v Speaker 5>way to figure out top down is to watch the screen,

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<v Speaker 5>and watch the screen and watch the screen. And I

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<v Speaker 5>have watched an unreasonable amount of hours. I have stared

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<v Speaker 5>at spank gods for quite a few years now, and

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<v Speaker 5>you start to find patterns in the top down because

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<v Speaker 5>you can't fill when the screen is read. So every

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<v Speaker 5>sports book, every trader, every better when the screen is read,

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<v Speaker 5>they know what happened. Right, somebody came and blew up

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<v Speaker 5>the market, most likely a large group. Now are they

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<v Speaker 5>trying to fake it or not? Because they knew they

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<v Speaker 5>were going to make it read? That wasn't an accident, right,

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<v Speaker 5>And so you start figuring out some of these things.

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<v Speaker 5>Then you start finding the patterns. And then another thing

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<v Speaker 5>that I found out if Bette Bousch that really helped

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<v Speaker 5>me is a top down was all the movers, So

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<v Speaker 5>real moving groups, real big moving groups. Their number one

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<v Speaker 5>request from originators is I want a lot down and

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<v Speaker 5>I don't want anybody to notice. So that made me

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<v Speaker 5>understand that when the screen lights up, it's done purposefully

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<v Speaker 5>or could be an accident. So you gave it to

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<v Speaker 5>a new new guy and they went and bet and

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<v Speaker 5>asked four one one account or something, and it blew

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<v Speaker 5>it up. But typically the groups will isolate those people

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<v Speaker 5>pretty quickly and they're not going to get any more action,

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<v Speaker 5>so those those don't last. And then on the other

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<v Speaker 5>side of it, is you want to fill when it's quiet.

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<v Speaker 5>So you hear guys talk about fakes a lot and

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<v Speaker 5>figuring out when those fakes are And so I won't

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<v Speaker 5>give away that the full sauce on. That took me

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<v Speaker 5>a long time to figure out some of these things.

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<v Speaker 5>But there are patterns all throughout the betting market. And

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<v Speaker 5>if you're looking at just the legals in the United States,

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<v Speaker 5>where you're looking at just Chris circum Penny, you're missing

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<v Speaker 5>such a large market out there. There are guys from

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<v Speaker 5>the UK moving, there, guys from Australia moving. There are

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<v Speaker 5>guys all over the place moving this action. And the

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<v Speaker 5>number one thing when they say keep it quiet, that

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<v Speaker 5>just means make sure the American odds screen does not

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<v Speaker 5>turn red right away, right, That's all they're asking for.

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<v Speaker 5>But there are book makers moving all over the place

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<v Speaker 5>off of action that is considered quiet.

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<v Speaker 1>So how do you make bets without making this green red?

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, that is the great question, Bob.

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<v Speaker 4>There's a there's a there's a lot of layers to that.

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<v Speaker 5>So the number one thing that I can I can

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00:14:07.279 --> 00:14:09.879
<v Speaker 5>lay out is you want to be able to bet

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00:14:10.039 --> 00:14:14.679
<v Speaker 5>as much as possible without the trader noticing so even

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<v Speaker 5>if it's out a recreational book at certain amounts, the

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<v Speaker 5>trader's going to see that bet at certain times of

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<v Speaker 5>the days, certain days of the week, depending on when

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<v Speaker 5>it is or what type of event it is. Just

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<v Speaker 5>an example, we bet a lot of FCS football the

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<v Speaker 5>FCS Championship game. I tried to fill that game the

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<v Speaker 5>same way I'd been filling FCS all year, very quickly,

273
00:14:37.960 --> 00:14:41.559
<v Speaker 5>but there was no cover coming in. So the traders

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00:14:41.600 --> 00:14:43.399
<v Speaker 5>noticed it right away and they took it out of

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00:14:43.399 --> 00:14:46.279
<v Speaker 5>the kiosks for three days after we got about six

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<v Speaker 5>hundred dollars down on each bet that we wanted in there.

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<v Speaker 5>So the number one thing is is to to figure

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<v Speaker 5>out how to make it so that nobody actually sees

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00:14:55.480 --> 00:14:57.600
<v Speaker 5>your action. Some of the other ways that you can

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<v Speaker 5>do with some parlays and such. A lot of that's

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00:15:00.360 --> 00:15:03.440
<v Speaker 5>been revealed already. There's there's books Ella Who's got a

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00:15:03.480 --> 00:15:06.799
<v Speaker 5>book about it, and the round Robins, but there are

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00:15:06.919 --> 00:15:10.240
<v Speaker 5>still some of those techniques depending on how you enter

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00:15:10.279 --> 00:15:12.879
<v Speaker 5>the bets together and what type of bets you're putting

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00:15:12.919 --> 00:15:16.000
<v Speaker 5>in there that are not going to be noticed. And

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<v Speaker 5>then the other way Bob is is we get losing

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00:15:18.440 --> 00:15:23.440
<v Speaker 5>betters that have great accounts already, and I get the

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00:15:23.480 --> 00:15:26.360
<v Speaker 5>breakdown of what they've been putting in there, and I

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00:15:26.480 --> 00:15:30.039
<v Speaker 5>try to fit our stuff right in with those so

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00:15:30.120 --> 00:15:33.120
<v Speaker 5>that they can stay alive not be noticed. And then

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00:15:33.240 --> 00:15:35.919
<v Speaker 5>these guys already don't move the market. They can come

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<v Speaker 5>in and bet like ten dimes and nothing's moving that

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00:15:38.919 --> 00:15:40.240
<v Speaker 5>the sports book will leave it alone.

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<v Speaker 4>If it's a major market.

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00:15:42.679 --> 00:15:47.600
<v Speaker 1>Your bet with six hundred dollars for the FCS Championship game,

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00:15:47.720 --> 00:15:49.919
<v Speaker 1>that doesn't sound like a big bet to me. Why

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00:15:49.919 --> 00:15:50.320
<v Speaker 1>would that?

298
00:15:51.840 --> 00:15:53.080
<v Speaker 4>Yeah a red flag.

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00:15:54.000 --> 00:15:59.159
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, it's their consecutive three hundred dollars bets. And the

300
00:15:59.240 --> 00:16:02.720
<v Speaker 5>reason is it did a red flag is we're filling

301
00:16:02.799 --> 00:16:06.480
<v Speaker 5>side total and they just noticed what was happening and

302
00:16:06.799 --> 00:16:10.919
<v Speaker 5>they knew that wasn't recreational action. They can tell pretty quickly.

303
00:16:10.960 --> 00:16:13.919
<v Speaker 5>That's why I mean, you can't let them see right like,

304
00:16:15.480 --> 00:16:18.480
<v Speaker 5>if you're betting at a physical location, if they get

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00:16:18.519 --> 00:16:20.679
<v Speaker 5>their eyes on those bets, they're going to be able

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00:16:20.720 --> 00:16:24.120
<v Speaker 5>to tell. It doesn't matter the amount. I've been limited

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00:16:24.440 --> 00:16:27.519
<v Speaker 5>early on betting one hundred dollars a game because I

308
00:16:27.559 --> 00:16:30.600
<v Speaker 5>was getting closing line value. They were able to tell,

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00:16:30.960 --> 00:16:32.919
<v Speaker 5>and so the patterns that are coming in that there's

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00:16:33.000 --> 00:16:36.159
<v Speaker 5>just not a not a wreck better out there that's

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00:16:36.200 --> 00:16:39.600
<v Speaker 5>gonna bet in that fashion because they can just go

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00:16:39.639 --> 00:16:41.679
<v Speaker 5>to the counter if they want more than what the

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00:16:41.799 --> 00:16:42.919
<v Speaker 5>Kiosk is offering.

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00:16:44.279 --> 00:16:50.159
<v Speaker 2>So what percentage of your action now is top down

315
00:16:50.399 --> 00:16:58.080
<v Speaker 2>versus your partner originate some things versus moving for someone outside?

316
00:16:58.279 --> 00:17:01.279
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, right now, only about five to three percent of

317
00:17:01.279 --> 00:17:04.200
<v Speaker 5>our action is moving for somebody else. It just wasn't

318
00:17:04.240 --> 00:17:08.000
<v Speaker 5>something that we really enjoyed. Might do some after that

319
00:17:08.200 --> 00:17:10.319
<v Speaker 5>bash this year with a few more groups, but really

320
00:17:10.319 --> 00:17:12.319
<v Speaker 5>what we're looking for is people to move for us.

321
00:17:13.160 --> 00:17:17.000
<v Speaker 5>So this last season, thirty percent of our action was

322
00:17:17.240 --> 00:17:21.680
<v Speaker 5>the model and it was our own origination FCSFBS football,

323
00:17:21.759 --> 00:17:25.079
<v Speaker 5>that's the only thing we originate. And then the entire

324
00:17:25.160 --> 00:17:28.839
<v Speaker 5>rest of it is a form of top down. Some

325
00:17:28.920 --> 00:17:31.319
<v Speaker 5>of it is just from what we're finding in the screen.

326
00:17:31.799 --> 00:17:34.880
<v Speaker 5>Some of it is trends, some of it is understanding

327
00:17:35.160 --> 00:17:38.480
<v Speaker 5>just where a sports book is extremely weak at and

328
00:17:38.559 --> 00:17:42.359
<v Speaker 5>the wheel target some of those things. And there are

329
00:17:42.400 --> 00:17:46.680
<v Speaker 5>also there is information on Twitter that is freely available

330
00:17:46.839 --> 00:17:52.680
<v Speaker 5>that people constantly ignore as non valuable, and we find

331
00:17:52.960 --> 00:17:55.799
<v Speaker 5>the valuable information on there, and then we utilize that

332
00:17:55.880 --> 00:17:59.480
<v Speaker 5>information to make money. One guy that gives out information

333
00:17:59.559 --> 00:18:04.480
<v Speaker 5>on Twitter for free has helped us generate over one

334
00:18:04.519 --> 00:18:08.000
<v Speaker 5>hundred thousand dollars just in twenty twenty six, and it's

335
00:18:08.240 --> 00:18:12.440
<v Speaker 5>just from information that was free online Twitter. So there

336
00:18:12.519 --> 00:18:15.640
<v Speaker 5>is a lot of different ways to do what we

337
00:18:15.680 --> 00:18:18.960
<v Speaker 5>would call top down. It's a very broad generalization, but

338
00:18:19.440 --> 00:18:21.920
<v Speaker 5>it is still the majority of our action. Because football

339
00:18:21.960 --> 00:18:24.839
<v Speaker 5>season is just not that long, are.

340
00:18:24.680 --> 00:18:27.039
<v Speaker 2>You in the prediction markets?

341
00:18:27.720 --> 00:18:30.920
<v Speaker 5>Very little comes from us right now. We are setting

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00:18:31.000 --> 00:18:33.839
<v Speaker 5>up to utilize it in football season and we plan

343
00:18:33.960 --> 00:18:37.200
<v Speaker 5>to be making on there with our numbers along with

344
00:18:37.440 --> 00:18:40.039
<v Speaker 5>some technology that we're having. One of our partners helped

345
00:18:40.079 --> 00:18:44.119
<v Speaker 5>us out with. But I live in Nevada and my

346
00:18:44.200 --> 00:18:47.839
<v Speaker 5>partner lives in Michigan, and so we were taking early

347
00:18:47.920 --> 00:18:50.680
<v Speaker 5>on and there are some unique things that you can

348
00:18:50.720 --> 00:18:53.000
<v Speaker 5>find on there from the taking side that are offered

349
00:18:53.000 --> 00:18:56.160
<v Speaker 5>by the Kalshi Trading team particularly that are very beautible.

350
00:18:56.559 --> 00:18:58.759
<v Speaker 5>But we got shut out on you know, with the

351
00:18:58.759 --> 00:19:03.480
<v Speaker 5>inductions both of us, so it wasn't something we lasted

352
00:19:03.480 --> 00:19:05.559
<v Speaker 5>long in taking. But we're going to be working with

353
00:19:05.559 --> 00:19:07.640
<v Speaker 5>somebody else for the making side of it and getting

354
00:19:07.680 --> 00:19:09.920
<v Speaker 5>those numbers up online.

355
00:19:09.880 --> 00:19:13.160
<v Speaker 1>And you say you'd like to get movers, meaning other

356
00:19:13.200 --> 00:19:16.839
<v Speaker 1>people working for you, and presumably it wouldn't be hard

357
00:19:16.880 --> 00:19:18.920
<v Speaker 1>to get people who are willing to take your ten

358
00:19:19.000 --> 00:19:24.759
<v Speaker 1>thousand dollars and how do you evaluate their honesty and

359
00:19:24.799 --> 00:19:26.880
<v Speaker 1>their commitment and stuff like that.

360
00:19:27.599 --> 00:19:31.720
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, so the traditional moving deal that I spoke of

361
00:19:31.920 --> 00:19:35.000
<v Speaker 5>early on isn't one that we offer anybody. But it's

362
00:19:35.119 --> 00:19:38.839
<v Speaker 5>not something that we have ran into or need. Thanks

363
00:19:38.839 --> 00:19:42.640
<v Speaker 5>to bet Bash, there are plenty of guys out there

364
00:19:42.720 --> 00:19:45.240
<v Speaker 5>that just want good numbers. And if you have a

365
00:19:45.279 --> 00:19:47.839
<v Speaker 5>reputation and you can show that you can win long term,

366
00:19:47.920 --> 00:19:50.880
<v Speaker 5>provide what your ROI is, Provide what your closing line

367
00:19:50.960 --> 00:19:53.880
<v Speaker 5>value is if it is a market that needs closing

368
00:19:53.920 --> 00:19:56.079
<v Speaker 5>line value to be beat. If it's not, then they're

369
00:19:56.079 --> 00:19:58.440
<v Speaker 5>going to go off the ROI and the amount of

370
00:19:58.480 --> 00:20:02.160
<v Speaker 5>bets there. So the other deal we do is we're

371
00:20:02.240 --> 00:20:05.519
<v Speaker 5>trying to find wells, the ips. They have their own

372
00:20:05.519 --> 00:20:08.240
<v Speaker 5>money already in the accounts, they don't need our money,

373
00:20:08.480 --> 00:20:11.079
<v Speaker 5>so we're splitting the bets with them, and then we

374
00:20:11.240 --> 00:20:14.480
<v Speaker 5>settle up. Typically it'll be every week settle it, will

375
00:20:14.519 --> 00:20:17.000
<v Speaker 5>send the thing. But once we build relationships that the

376
00:20:17.079 --> 00:20:19.279
<v Speaker 5>number just kind of stays on paper for a lot

377
00:20:19.319 --> 00:20:21.960
<v Speaker 5>and goes up and down and fluctuates and gets paid

378
00:20:21.960 --> 00:20:25.160
<v Speaker 5>off when we typically owe a third party money that

379
00:20:25.240 --> 00:20:25.920
<v Speaker 5>we both know.

380
00:20:27.480 --> 00:20:30.680
<v Speaker 1>So it sounds like that has a potential of you

381
00:20:30.759 --> 00:20:31.440
<v Speaker 1>getting burned.

382
00:20:32.279 --> 00:20:36.039
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, there is. There is absolutely the potential of us

383
00:20:36.200 --> 00:20:38.240
<v Speaker 5>having one of our guys. But we could go up

384
00:20:38.279 --> 00:20:41.880
<v Speaker 5>really large and then they could run off with that. Luckily,

385
00:20:41.920 --> 00:20:44.680
<v Speaker 5>at this point in time, we've never had that happen.

386
00:20:45.160 --> 00:20:48.880
<v Speaker 5>How do we evaluate it? It's a good question, you know, like,

387
00:20:49.000 --> 00:20:50.920
<v Speaker 5>and it's an interesting one in the gay listen because

388
00:20:50.920 --> 00:20:53.559
<v Speaker 5>there's there's you know, oh, he knows this guy or

389
00:20:53.839 --> 00:20:55.720
<v Speaker 5>he's friends with this person. It's like, well, have you

390
00:20:55.720 --> 00:20:58.039
<v Speaker 5>guys done real business? Like not really, you know, but

391
00:20:58.079 --> 00:21:01.279
<v Speaker 5>he seems like a that A lot some of it

392
00:21:01.400 --> 00:21:03.519
<v Speaker 5>is just taking a chance, ap do you get to

393
00:21:03.559 --> 00:21:06.039
<v Speaker 5>talk to somebody for a little bit. And a big

394
00:21:06.079 --> 00:21:08.160
<v Speaker 5>part of it is that they're taking the chance on

395
00:21:08.319 --> 00:21:10.519
<v Speaker 5>us more so than we are on them. They have

396
00:21:10.599 --> 00:21:13.559
<v Speaker 5>to put up the money. If we lose and then

397
00:21:13.640 --> 00:21:15.799
<v Speaker 5>don't pay them, then they would be out whatever that

398
00:21:15.880 --> 00:21:19.359
<v Speaker 5>figure was, and so we're both taking on that little

399
00:21:19.359 --> 00:21:23.359
<v Speaker 5>bit of risk there. And if they want to make money,

400
00:21:23.400 --> 00:21:25.720
<v Speaker 5>long term, they're going to pay us when we win,

401
00:21:26.279 --> 00:21:30.240
<v Speaker 5>and we're not typically betting into what I would say

402
00:21:30.279 --> 00:21:33.519
<v Speaker 5>is a soft book maker in the PPH world that

403
00:21:33.720 --> 00:21:36.559
<v Speaker 5>is not going to pay us. And most of the movers,

404
00:21:37.200 --> 00:21:40.960
<v Speaker 5>the expectation is that they guarantee the accounts. So if

405
00:21:40.960 --> 00:21:44.039
<v Speaker 5>they have a reputation as a mover, they're known, then

406
00:21:44.160 --> 00:21:47.200
<v Speaker 5>they're guaranteeing it. So even if they get stiffed, the

407
00:21:47.720 --> 00:21:51.200
<v Speaker 5>originators are typically not going to be the ones getting stiffed.

408
00:21:51.279 --> 00:21:53.400
<v Speaker 5>And most of the major groups that I've talked to

409
00:21:53.480 --> 00:21:55.480
<v Speaker 5>have that kind of set up one hundred percent at

410
00:21:55.519 --> 00:21:55.960
<v Speaker 5>this point.

411
00:21:56.880 --> 00:22:01.119
<v Speaker 2>So you mentioned betting at the key asks, but how

412
00:22:01.160 --> 00:22:03.359
<v Speaker 2>do you go out and run around and bet at

413
00:22:03.440 --> 00:22:07.319
<v Speaker 2>kiosks and you can't be watching the board at the

414
00:22:07.359 --> 00:22:12.000
<v Speaker 2>same time, and betting at kiosks, I mean is really

415
00:22:12.079 --> 00:22:15.599
<v Speaker 2>time consuming just in terms of driving to the different

416
00:22:15.640 --> 00:22:21.240
<v Speaker 2>places and having to make multiple bets because they because

417
00:22:21.240 --> 00:22:23.319
<v Speaker 2>you can only bet three hundred dollars at a time

418
00:22:23.519 --> 00:22:23.960
<v Speaker 2>or whatever.

419
00:22:24.759 --> 00:22:28.039
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, yeah, it can take some time. So typically what

420
00:22:28.200 --> 00:22:32.759
<v Speaker 5>we are pumping the kiosks full of just where there's

421
00:22:33.359 --> 00:22:36.559
<v Speaker 5>a large amount of volume is FCS football, and so

422
00:22:36.680 --> 00:22:39.359
<v Speaker 5>I don't have to be on screen for that. I'm

423
00:22:39.559 --> 00:22:43.079
<v Speaker 5>my partner around the screen during that time period, and

424
00:22:43.440 --> 00:22:46.319
<v Speaker 5>we have the numbers beforehand as well before I show

425
00:22:46.400 --> 00:22:50.279
<v Speaker 5>up as well. So typically I know that these twenty

426
00:22:50.359 --> 00:22:53.400
<v Speaker 5>games at this price, between this price and this price

427
00:22:53.440 --> 00:22:56.160
<v Speaker 5>are good, so fill them as much as you pan

428
00:22:56.319 --> 00:22:57.240
<v Speaker 5>up to this number.

429
00:22:57.680 --> 00:22:57.960
<v Speaker 1>Right.

430
00:22:58.759 --> 00:23:01.359
<v Speaker 5>So during football, it does take a lot of time,

431
00:23:01.440 --> 00:23:05.079
<v Speaker 5>but there's so many people there that it's it's it's

432
00:23:05.119 --> 00:23:08.839
<v Speaker 5>a beautiful time just rotating kiosk to kiosk, walking around.

433
00:23:08.880 --> 00:23:12.079
<v Speaker 5>And then I'm not moving proper. I don't want to

434
00:23:12.119 --> 00:23:14.799
<v Speaker 5>say property. I do move properties, but I'm not typically

435
00:23:15.440 --> 00:23:20.039
<v Speaker 5>betting different sports books. We're typically targeting one sports book

436
00:23:20.039 --> 00:23:24.240
<v Speaker 5>and that in Nevada, and so there is some walk

437
00:23:24.279 --> 00:23:26.480
<v Speaker 5>in there. Is that the main thing is cashing that

438
00:23:26.559 --> 00:23:28.839
<v Speaker 5>the tickets. Is that the heart is part more so

439
00:23:28.920 --> 00:23:32.279
<v Speaker 5>than even getting those bets down in the time, because

440
00:23:32.640 --> 00:23:35.720
<v Speaker 5>we have to cash them without providing an ID or

441
00:23:35.920 --> 00:23:40.400
<v Speaker 5>a player's card, otherwise we'll get flagged. They'll connect all

442
00:23:40.440 --> 00:23:43.759
<v Speaker 5>those bets and it could be a major issue. So

443
00:23:43.799 --> 00:23:46.559
<v Speaker 5>the main thing is keeping those low enough and then

444
00:23:47.400 --> 00:23:50.759
<v Speaker 5>just going from different place to different place and taking

445
00:23:50.799 --> 00:23:52.359
<v Speaker 5>care of it and spreading it out and of course

446
00:23:52.480 --> 00:23:54.680
<v Speaker 5>we do use other people and have them hop in

447
00:23:54.759 --> 00:23:59.599
<v Speaker 5>on that. But when it's top when we're doing top down,

448
00:23:59.720 --> 00:24:02.119
<v Speaker 5>So that's an example of the football. But when it's

449
00:24:02.160 --> 00:24:05.319
<v Speaker 5>top dom, the stuff, as I mentioned, I'm betting is

450
00:24:05.359 --> 00:24:09.000
<v Speaker 5>not red screen, so I have I can send bet

451
00:24:09.039 --> 00:24:10.559
<v Speaker 5>to some people and I'll be like, no, you have

452
00:24:10.599 --> 00:24:13.279
<v Speaker 5>about an hour to bet that, right, like, and it

453
00:24:13.440 --> 00:24:17.599
<v Speaker 5>is a top down play. And as an example golf,

454
00:24:17.799 --> 00:24:21.440
<v Speaker 5>we can bet golf on Wednesday nights and have hours

455
00:24:21.480 --> 00:24:24.559
<v Speaker 5>to fill those positions and we won't move the market.

456
00:24:25.559 --> 00:24:28.759
<v Speaker 5>And so it's not a ton of time consuming, I

457
00:24:28.759 --> 00:24:30.599
<v Speaker 5>should say, because I'll go in like a two hour

458
00:24:30.680 --> 00:24:33.640
<v Speaker 5>window and fill all those positions, right, and then go

459
00:24:33.799 --> 00:24:37.759
<v Speaker 5>take an hour walk around, cash the tickets from previously,

460
00:24:38.079 --> 00:24:41.119
<v Speaker 5>and so about three hours in that that total fashion,

461
00:24:41.440 --> 00:24:46.079
<v Speaker 5>except on college football Saturdays which at seventy and to

462
00:24:46.519 --> 00:24:48.319
<v Speaker 5>whenever I drop or run out of money.

463
00:24:50.039 --> 00:24:53.119
<v Speaker 2>So when you're talking about golf, you're not originating that.

464
00:24:53.440 --> 00:24:57.759
<v Speaker 2>So your your source of truth must be something that

465
00:24:57.839 --> 00:25:01.119
<v Speaker 2>other people have not realized is there for the taking

466
00:25:01.200 --> 00:25:03.000
<v Speaker 2>if you have two hours to fill it.

467
00:25:03.680 --> 00:25:06.559
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, this is something I'm willing to provide. Is I

468
00:25:06.640 --> 00:25:09.480
<v Speaker 5>hate the idea of a source of truth. I am

469
00:25:09.720 --> 00:25:13.359
<v Speaker 5>absolutely anti source of the truth top down betting. And

470
00:25:13.640 --> 00:25:16.680
<v Speaker 5>you see that in the mainstream all the time. Odds

471
00:25:16.759 --> 00:25:20.880
<v Speaker 5>Jam's got calculators to Pinnacle. People follow Chris blindly, even

472
00:25:20.880 --> 00:25:22.640
<v Speaker 5>if they have one hundred and twenty five dollars limit

473
00:25:23.119 --> 00:25:27.160
<v Speaker 5>and circa who limited. People let some of them back in,

474
00:25:27.240 --> 00:25:30.240
<v Speaker 5>but still these are supposed to be considered the sharpest books,

475
00:25:30.319 --> 00:25:32.759
<v Speaker 5>and people were using them as the sole source of truth.

476
00:25:32.799 --> 00:25:36.559
<v Speaker 5>This book moves, I'm going to follow it right, But.

477
00:25:38.200 --> 00:25:41.759
<v Speaker 2>What I'm saying is that if the golf is a

478
00:25:41.880 --> 00:25:47.319
<v Speaker 2>top down bet, then you had to read the market somewhere.

479
00:25:47.759 --> 00:25:49.039
<v Speaker 2>That's that's all I read.

480
00:25:48.960 --> 00:25:52.240
<v Speaker 5>Right, And so that's what I was just prefacing, like

481
00:25:52.359 --> 00:25:56.440
<v Speaker 5>just kind of that tradition. And then we're taking a blend.

482
00:25:56.759 --> 00:25:59.799
<v Speaker 5>There's a lot of different books out there that we're

483
00:25:59.799 --> 00:26:03.160
<v Speaker 5>going to. It's not necessarily find a source of truth,

484
00:26:03.240 --> 00:26:05.880
<v Speaker 5>but I'm looking for the fills and how those patterns

485
00:26:05.920 --> 00:26:10.160
<v Speaker 5>are coming in, and then I'm marking which price which side,

486
00:26:10.400 --> 00:26:12.839
<v Speaker 5>and then watching it develop, and then by the time

487
00:26:13.400 --> 00:26:16.000
<v Speaker 5>Wednesday night is there, I have a good idea of

488
00:26:16.160 --> 00:26:19.400
<v Speaker 5>what side is being filled the most, and what side

489
00:26:19.480 --> 00:26:22.839
<v Speaker 5>is being filled as quietly as possible, and then we'll

490
00:26:22.920 --> 00:26:25.960
<v Speaker 5>look for the numbers that are off market still right

491
00:26:26.359 --> 00:26:29.519
<v Speaker 5>prices that we've thing like, I don't want to give

492
00:26:29.519 --> 00:26:32.119
<v Speaker 5>an illusion that price doesn't matter. It is everything in

493
00:26:32.240 --> 00:26:36.720
<v Speaker 5>every sports betting piece, right, but we're going to take

494
00:26:36.759 --> 00:26:38.759
<v Speaker 5>those off markets that are there. Then they're at a

495
00:26:38.759 --> 00:26:42.279
<v Speaker 5>book that we can fill quietly and get the volume

496
00:26:42.319 --> 00:26:43.480
<v Speaker 5>that we want to from there.

497
00:26:44.559 --> 00:26:51.559
<v Speaker 1>When you make partnerships temporary with other sports betters, is

498
00:26:51.599 --> 00:26:56.640
<v Speaker 1>this a handshake partnership? Is this signed contracts? How is

499
00:26:56.680 --> 00:26:57.079
<v Speaker 1>this done?

500
00:26:57.880 --> 00:27:00.640
<v Speaker 5>I have a lot of handshake deals we have. We

501
00:27:00.720 --> 00:27:04.759
<v Speaker 5>have done some contracts. The way the lawyer explained it

502
00:27:04.799 --> 00:27:06.880
<v Speaker 5>to us is the main thing is having some sort

503
00:27:06.880 --> 00:27:09.920
<v Speaker 5>of documentation that is where you guys outlined the dell.

504
00:27:10.240 --> 00:27:14.480
<v Speaker 5>So typically after I've met somebody and I've chatted him

505
00:27:14.559 --> 00:27:17.240
<v Speaker 5>with him for a while, then when we decided to

506
00:27:17.279 --> 00:27:19.359
<v Speaker 5>work together, I will send a message saying, hey, just

507
00:27:19.400 --> 00:27:21.759
<v Speaker 5>wanted to confirm you're you're ready to work with us,

508
00:27:21.839 --> 00:27:23.480
<v Speaker 5>and they'll say yes, and I'll be all right.

509
00:27:23.480 --> 00:27:23.839
<v Speaker 1>Perfect.

510
00:27:23.880 --> 00:27:26.039
<v Speaker 5>So it's a fifty to fifty split on money risk

511
00:27:26.160 --> 00:27:30.160
<v Speaker 5>money one, but we're both invested equally and we'll settle

512
00:27:30.200 --> 00:27:33.160
<v Speaker 5>up every Monday, depending on where the figure the figure is.

513
00:27:33.359 --> 00:27:37.640
<v Speaker 5>So technically that's a legally binding contract. Hopefully we never

514
00:27:37.720 --> 00:27:39.920
<v Speaker 5>have to use that in court. And if it's somebody

515
00:27:39.960 --> 00:27:42.960
<v Speaker 5>that we were maybe a little bit more worried about,

516
00:27:43.200 --> 00:27:46.440
<v Speaker 5>we do have a contract we have had people sign before.

517
00:27:47.720 --> 00:27:50.079
<v Speaker 5>We brought in a partner for a short period of

518
00:27:50.079 --> 00:27:53.400
<v Speaker 5>time and he was getting accounts to us from people

519
00:27:53.440 --> 00:27:56.640
<v Speaker 5>that he worked with. So these are what I consider

520
00:27:56.680 --> 00:28:00.279
<v Speaker 5>to be T three and Tier four accounts. They are

521
00:28:00.599 --> 00:28:04.160
<v Speaker 5>pretty far down your social ladder, and the stiff risk

522
00:28:04.279 --> 00:28:06.960
<v Speaker 5>is very high. Your grandma is likely not going to

523
00:28:07.079 --> 00:28:09.640
<v Speaker 5>rob us, your mother is likely not going to rob us.

524
00:28:09.759 --> 00:28:12.759
<v Speaker 5>Your coworker that you've worked with for six months and

525
00:28:12.839 --> 00:28:16.759
<v Speaker 5>bonded over drinks has a high likelihood of running out

526
00:28:17.279 --> 00:28:20.839
<v Speaker 5>once I transfer the twenty k into their account or whatever.

527
00:28:20.599 --> 00:28:21.160
<v Speaker 4>It may be.

528
00:28:22.240 --> 00:28:28.960
<v Speaker 1>Do you ever find it useful to make camouflage bets

529
00:28:28.960 --> 00:28:32.599
<v Speaker 1>that are less profitable than usual or even unprofitable, in

530
00:28:32.680 --> 00:28:34.039
<v Speaker 1>order to keep an account open.

531
00:28:34.759 --> 00:28:36.039
<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

532
00:28:36.119 --> 00:28:39.119
<v Speaker 5>The term most commonly is for this is priming an account,

533
00:28:39.400 --> 00:28:43.640
<v Speaker 5>and we've had a love hate relationship with this over

534
00:28:43.680 --> 00:28:48.480
<v Speaker 5>the years. Early on, we lost some DKs and fandles

535
00:28:48.480 --> 00:28:51.160
<v Speaker 5>and like ten bets, and that's why I was like,

536
00:28:51.240 --> 00:28:53.759
<v Speaker 5>we have to figure out some other way to do this,

537
00:28:53.960 --> 00:28:57.400
<v Speaker 5>because this is not working. We cannot pay or make

538
00:28:57.440 --> 00:29:01.519
<v Speaker 5>a deal with somebody for an account and lose them

539
00:29:01.559 --> 00:29:05.079
<v Speaker 5>in this fashion. So on the priming of the accounts,

540
00:29:05.279 --> 00:29:08.640
<v Speaker 5>we will put in some things that are considered to

541
00:29:08.720 --> 00:29:12.480
<v Speaker 5>be not as positive as we would like. So I

542
00:29:12.799 --> 00:29:15.599
<v Speaker 5>may have two positive bets in the parlay and then

543
00:29:15.640 --> 00:29:18.200
<v Speaker 5>the third bet isn't. But just an example, like we

544
00:29:18.799 --> 00:29:21.799
<v Speaker 5>put a five legue World Cup parlay into hard Rock.

545
00:29:21.880 --> 00:29:24.960
<v Speaker 5>It was given to us by a friend and he

546
00:29:25.079 --> 00:29:28.680
<v Speaker 5>was like, I love this five leggers, it's awesome. That

547
00:29:28.839 --> 00:29:31.079
<v Speaker 5>was supposed to prime the account. It was put in

548
00:29:31.079 --> 00:29:35.000
<v Speaker 5>there too primary account. It won, so it was five

549
00:29:35.079 --> 00:29:37.559
<v Speaker 5>more bucks to win one hundred and ten thousand dollars

550
00:29:37.680 --> 00:29:41.200
<v Speaker 5>and it wins on the account. We have lost accounts

551
00:29:41.279 --> 00:29:44.839
<v Speaker 5>just for winning. This account doesn't lose, it doesn't get

552
00:29:44.839 --> 00:29:48.319
<v Speaker 5>limited immediately. So now we're trying to prime it, right,

553
00:29:48.400 --> 00:29:51.240
<v Speaker 5>We're trying to continue to prime it, and so we

554
00:29:51.799 --> 00:29:56.759
<v Speaker 5>are trying to act like we are escalating our interest

555
00:29:56.880 --> 00:29:59.880
<v Speaker 5>in gambling. Right, So we placed that five hundred dollars

556
00:29:59.880 --> 00:30:02.319
<v Speaker 5>one and so once we saw the account wasn't limited.

557
00:30:02.359 --> 00:30:05.680
<v Speaker 5>We immediately went and put a thousand dollars parlay right,

558
00:30:05.720 --> 00:30:06.839
<v Speaker 5>and then put another.

559
00:30:06.599 --> 00:30:08.680
<v Speaker 4>One thousand dollars paraday. After that one loss, put another

560
00:30:08.759 --> 00:30:10.759
<v Speaker 4>thousand dollars parlays. So this.

561
00:30:12.319 --> 00:30:14.880
<v Speaker 5>There is a form of priming that has to go on,

562
00:30:14.960 --> 00:30:17.119
<v Speaker 5>and there is a form of the game that has

563
00:30:17.200 --> 00:30:19.039
<v Speaker 5>to go on. But we're still going to try and

564
00:30:19.119 --> 00:30:21.400
<v Speaker 5>put stuff that we believe is going to win long

565
00:30:21.519 --> 00:30:24.960
<v Speaker 5>term based off of the patterns we're finding, based off

566
00:30:24.960 --> 00:30:28.680
<v Speaker 5>of information somebody else is providing us. The number one

567
00:30:28.759 --> 00:30:31.200
<v Speaker 5>thing is you can't bet when the screen is read,

568
00:30:31.599 --> 00:30:36.160
<v Speaker 5>and you gotta avoid CLV if at all possible, regardless

569
00:30:36.200 --> 00:30:39.680
<v Speaker 5>of how big the market is, whether it's Major League Baseball,

570
00:30:40.000 --> 00:30:43.880
<v Speaker 5>UFC on Saturday, if you're getting CLV, the account's going

571
00:30:43.920 --> 00:30:44.680
<v Speaker 5>to get limited.

572
00:30:45.559 --> 00:30:49.720
<v Speaker 2>Back to the idea of faking or fainting. Somebody said

573
00:30:49.720 --> 00:30:53.039
<v Speaker 2>to me that the it might have been used milkshake.

574
00:30:53.519 --> 00:31:00.000
<v Speaker 2>Somebody said to me that the line forty five minutes

575
00:31:00.079 --> 00:31:04.440
<v Speaker 2>it's before the game is actually a better indicator of

576
00:31:04.480 --> 00:31:06.279
<v Speaker 2>the truth than the closing line.

577
00:31:07.000 --> 00:31:07.359
<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

578
00:31:07.559 --> 00:31:09.759
<v Speaker 5>So there was a guy I bet Batch that was

579
00:31:09.799 --> 00:31:12.400
<v Speaker 5>talking about that this last week, where I think you

580
00:31:12.440 --> 00:31:14.759
<v Speaker 5>worked for s four one one, and so he was

581
00:31:14.839 --> 00:31:18.359
<v Speaker 5>talking about that primarily for Major League Baseball. And that's

582
00:31:18.400 --> 00:31:20.799
<v Speaker 5>a perfect example of the type of stuff that is

583
00:31:21.079 --> 00:31:24.799
<v Speaker 5>top down right that type of tracking. If you watch

584
00:31:24.920 --> 00:31:27.960
<v Speaker 5>the Major League Baseball market, any professional that it does,

585
00:31:28.000 --> 00:31:31.200
<v Speaker 5>there's the early morning betters. There's large groups that are

586
00:31:31.240 --> 00:31:34.799
<v Speaker 5>moving from six am to ten am. They're filling positions,

587
00:31:34.839 --> 00:31:37.599
<v Speaker 5>and typically they're blowing up the market because the limits

588
00:31:37.640 --> 00:31:41.440
<v Speaker 5>are as big. But forty five minutes before start, two

589
00:31:41.480 --> 00:31:44.839
<v Speaker 5>hours before start, there are other groups filling much bigger pills.

590
00:31:44.880 --> 00:31:47.839
<v Speaker 5>They're still moving the market, but maybe not as drastically

591
00:31:48.160 --> 00:31:51.920
<v Speaker 5>as blowing it up. And then right before start, way

592
00:31:51.960 --> 00:31:54.240
<v Speaker 5>more games than should be based off the logic of

593
00:31:54.319 --> 00:31:57.559
<v Speaker 5>nobody can beat Major League Baseball without clv are moving

594
00:31:57.839 --> 00:32:01.440
<v Speaker 5>in massive ways. So there's some theories that that's just

595
00:32:01.519 --> 00:32:05.279
<v Speaker 5>the REX coming in. The Dodgers is an example. Dodgers

596
00:32:05.319 --> 00:32:07.839
<v Speaker 5>move in twenty five to thirty cents or whatever right

597
00:32:07.880 --> 00:32:10.759
<v Speaker 5>before post. Maybe that's the time to come back. On

598
00:32:10.799 --> 00:32:13.680
<v Speaker 5>the other side, the one thing that I would say

599
00:32:13.680 --> 00:32:16.920
<v Speaker 5>is there's just there's no absolutes. There are just no absolutes.

600
00:32:16.960 --> 00:32:20.319
<v Speaker 5>Everybody says NFL MLB can't be beat right before post.

601
00:32:21.119 --> 00:32:24.559
<v Speaker 5>They are arbable right before post, So that's beatable in

602
00:32:24.640 --> 00:32:27.680
<v Speaker 5>any way, shape or fashion. That would be considered beatable

603
00:32:27.960 --> 00:32:28.480
<v Speaker 5>to mean.

604
00:32:29.119 --> 00:32:32.440
<v Speaker 1>One of your accounts in the past month or so

605
00:32:32.759 --> 00:32:37.519
<v Speaker 1>is up up, up, and you haven't been restricted yet.

606
00:32:38.160 --> 00:32:40.599
<v Speaker 1>Will you put that account aside for three months or

607
00:32:40.640 --> 00:32:42.799
<v Speaker 1>six months or something like that.

608
00:32:43.359 --> 00:32:47.079
<v Speaker 5>It's an interesting question. There are accounts that we do

609
00:32:47.200 --> 00:32:50.440
<v Speaker 5>let go dormant depending on where the idea is from

610
00:32:50.680 --> 00:32:54.119
<v Speaker 5>that got the account. So if we have somebody with

611
00:32:54.160 --> 00:32:56.880
<v Speaker 5>the Michigan ID betting on a Nevada account and they're

612
00:32:56.920 --> 00:32:59.920
<v Speaker 5>betting every single day of baseball season, either they do

613
00:33:00.240 --> 00:33:03.680
<v Speaker 5>moved to and never updated their ID, or somebody else

614
00:33:03.759 --> 00:33:07.599
<v Speaker 5>has that account, so I not necessarily do it the

615
00:33:07.640 --> 00:33:11.680
<v Speaker 5>win though, if we take an account for a lot

616
00:33:11.720 --> 00:33:14.400
<v Speaker 5>of money, we want to make sure that we're giving

617
00:33:14.519 --> 00:33:19.119
<v Speaker 5>some back in expected value. Depending on the account, I

618
00:33:19.400 --> 00:33:20.799
<v Speaker 5>should say like this.

619
00:33:20.799 --> 00:33:21.160
<v Speaker 4>This.

620
00:33:21.160 --> 00:33:24.880
<v Speaker 5>This is mainly for legals that we're talking about with

621
00:33:25.359 --> 00:33:28.160
<v Speaker 5>a person's name detached or a VIP, because those are

622
00:33:28.160 --> 00:33:32.319
<v Speaker 5>the only accounts we particularly care about disguising the action

623
00:33:32.400 --> 00:33:34.079
<v Speaker 5>because they have they have a ton of value. If

624
00:33:34.119 --> 00:33:36.279
<v Speaker 5>you can get into the VIP program, if you can

625
00:33:36.920 --> 00:33:39.519
<v Speaker 5>just keep them alive and be able to bet into

626
00:33:39.839 --> 00:33:43.039
<v Speaker 5>a rec book. They're they're extremely valuable in that fashion.

627
00:33:44.160 --> 00:33:48.640
<v Speaker 2>Just going back to the CLV question, my understanding is

628
00:33:48.720 --> 00:33:53.640
<v Speaker 2>that you can shift the closing line if you're betting

629
00:33:53.680 --> 00:33:57.079
<v Speaker 2>a lot of money, you can shift the closing line

630
00:33:57.200 --> 00:34:02.359
<v Speaker 2>right before the off just so that you do intentionally

631
00:34:02.440 --> 00:34:07.799
<v Speaker 2>do not get CLV, like pay the price to to

632
00:34:07.799 --> 00:34:09.239
<v Speaker 2>to not have CLV in that.

633
00:34:10.039 --> 00:34:13.000
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, that's that's not us. We're we're not that size

634
00:34:13.000 --> 00:34:15.199
<v Speaker 5>of a group. But there are definitely groups out there

635
00:34:15.280 --> 00:34:19.599
<v Speaker 5>that are concerned with that type of manipulation and are

636
00:34:19.679 --> 00:34:23.119
<v Speaker 5>doing so to be able to keep accounts longer. That's

637
00:34:23.199 --> 00:34:26.239
<v Speaker 5>that's why I said, there's just there's no absolutes, right, Like,

638
00:34:26.320 --> 00:34:28.800
<v Speaker 5>somebody might be moving that line right out close and

639
00:34:29.360 --> 00:34:32.039
<v Speaker 5>as a top down better you might think, Wow, they

640
00:34:32.039 --> 00:34:34.199
<v Speaker 5>have the most money, I should follow them, and then

641
00:34:34.239 --> 00:34:36.920
<v Speaker 5>you're just losing your shirt. And it's because they just

642
00:34:37.079 --> 00:34:40.360
<v Speaker 5>they're hitting a limited as four one one account and

643
00:34:40.440 --> 00:34:42.719
<v Speaker 5>just moving the market right and you don't even know

644
00:34:42.760 --> 00:34:44.559
<v Speaker 5>how much it costs them to move it. You would

645
00:34:44.599 --> 00:34:47.599
<v Speaker 5>assume based on the limit on the spank Gods that

646
00:34:47.679 --> 00:34:50.239
<v Speaker 5>it was fifty dimes or whatever it may be, but

647
00:34:50.320 --> 00:34:52.960
<v Speaker 5>that's just not always the case for.

648
00:34:52.920 --> 00:34:56.840
<v Speaker 1>Our listeners wanting to get into sports betting. Do you

649
00:34:56.840 --> 00:34:59.480
<v Speaker 1>have any recommended books or podcasts?

650
00:35:00.039 --> 00:35:03.920
<v Speaker 5>Well, Gambling with an Edge for sure, there are three

651
00:35:04.199 --> 00:35:07.559
<v Speaker 5>that I really like, Your Guys is a Risk of

652
00:35:07.679 --> 00:35:09.840
<v Speaker 5>Ruin and I think John does a great job on

653
00:35:09.880 --> 00:35:12.280
<v Speaker 5>that one. And the guests he brings on, I've met

654
00:35:12.280 --> 00:35:15.760
<v Speaker 5>a ton of them. They're all very legit, very interesting stories.

655
00:35:16.159 --> 00:35:19.599
<v Speaker 5>And then Be Better Better Spanky doesn't, you know, really

656
00:35:19.639 --> 00:35:23.079
<v Speaker 5>do it much anymore, but his podcast changed my life

657
00:35:23.159 --> 00:35:28.079
<v Speaker 5>and then the logic of sports betting. So everybody says

658
00:35:28.119 --> 00:35:30.559
<v Speaker 5>that one for suspisient. I didn't read any other book.

659
00:35:30.800 --> 00:35:33.880
<v Speaker 5>It was the only sports betting book I ever read

660
00:35:34.159 --> 00:35:37.679
<v Speaker 5>that wasn't entertaining. I should say only the textbook one.

661
00:35:37.719 --> 00:35:40.760
<v Speaker 5>There are plenty of entertaining gambling ones I've enjoyed, but

662
00:35:41.119 --> 00:35:44.920
<v Speaker 5>that was the one just because it helps break down

663
00:35:44.920 --> 00:35:47.679
<v Speaker 5>the math in a way that's understandable, that changes sports

664
00:35:47.679 --> 00:35:54.719
<v Speaker 5>from a handicapping to a mathematical equation that's beatable and

665
00:35:54.880 --> 00:36:00.920
<v Speaker 5>trackable and just logical, like the title says, unlike I know,

666
00:36:01.159 --> 00:36:04.239
<v Speaker 5>the whole gambling industry is rife with a lot of

667
00:36:04.280 --> 00:36:06.519
<v Speaker 5>people that say they can win off of all sorts

668
00:36:06.559 --> 00:36:08.840
<v Speaker 5>of different things. But this one really breaks it down

669
00:36:08.840 --> 00:36:10.400
<v Speaker 5>into an understandable one.

670
00:36:11.159 --> 00:36:14.920
<v Speaker 2>What about you don't really have this in Nevada. But

671
00:36:15.000 --> 00:36:18.480
<v Speaker 2>what about dealing with bonuses? I mean a lot of

672
00:36:18.480 --> 00:36:21.880
<v Speaker 2>people are original bank rolls with the sports book bonuses.

673
00:36:22.079 --> 00:36:25.079
<v Speaker 2>But how do you guys handle that? Do you think

674
00:36:25.119 --> 00:36:28.719
<v Speaker 2>there are tails in using them? To avoid?

675
00:36:29.360 --> 00:36:29.559
<v Speaker 4>Yeah?

676
00:36:29.599 --> 00:36:33.599
<v Speaker 5>Absolutely, do not follow the math that everybody has agreed

677
00:36:33.679 --> 00:36:36.679
<v Speaker 5>upon and says is what you should do, right, like

678
00:36:36.840 --> 00:36:39.440
<v Speaker 5>go better down a plus four hundred to plus five

679
00:36:39.480 --> 00:36:43.119
<v Speaker 5>and a bank real size dependent. Don't do that opt

680
00:36:43.159 --> 00:36:47.599
<v Speaker 5>to just just don't follow the exact optimal path we

681
00:36:47.719 --> 00:36:50.679
<v Speaker 5>have that. We're still doing tests on this stuff. It's

682
00:36:50.719 --> 00:36:53.960
<v Speaker 5>a it's a never ending battle because the books will

683
00:36:54.039 --> 00:36:57.199
<v Speaker 5>change as well. They'll change those in charge, they'll change

684
00:36:57.280 --> 00:37:00.880
<v Speaker 5>the way their trackings, they'll upgrade their AI, they'll figure

685
00:37:00.880 --> 00:37:06.440
<v Speaker 5>out different ways to lock in a player. So one

686
00:37:06.480 --> 00:37:09.400
<v Speaker 5>of the accounts we have that is doing really well,

687
00:37:09.519 --> 00:37:11.119
<v Speaker 5>been doing well for a little while now at a

688
00:37:11.239 --> 00:37:15.079
<v Speaker 5>very recreational sports book. I have never touched a single

689
00:37:15.119 --> 00:37:18.360
<v Speaker 5>bonus that they have offered. I do not puch any

690
00:37:18.360 --> 00:37:20.159
<v Speaker 5>of the free bets. I don't touch any of the

691
00:37:20.159 --> 00:37:23.559
<v Speaker 5>profit boots, nothing that they offer. I don't text back

692
00:37:23.599 --> 00:37:26.239
<v Speaker 5>the VIP host that's been reaching out like we're just

693
00:37:26.360 --> 00:37:28.760
<v Speaker 5>kind of ignoring everything on that one. They just keep

694
00:37:28.840 --> 00:37:31.840
<v Speaker 5>letting us go. So until that one gets shut down,

695
00:37:31.840 --> 00:37:33.280
<v Speaker 5>we're going to keep doing that, and then we're going

696
00:37:33.360 --> 00:37:36.480
<v Speaker 5>to try it with another one. Because up until that time,

697
00:37:37.119 --> 00:37:39.400
<v Speaker 5>or I guess I should say, we had one sports

698
00:37:39.400 --> 00:37:41.920
<v Speaker 5>book at that same or we had one account at

699
00:37:41.920 --> 00:37:45.320
<v Speaker 5>that same sports book. We were priming it in a fashion,

700
00:37:45.880 --> 00:37:47.960
<v Speaker 5>but we were using all the free bets, we're using

701
00:37:48.000 --> 00:37:50.199
<v Speaker 5>all the profit is. We were doing ten legs and

702
00:37:50.280 --> 00:37:53.719
<v Speaker 5>game parlays, table tennis, just all sorts of chaos into

703
00:37:53.719 --> 00:37:56.440
<v Speaker 5>that account, and it went up about thirty eight thousand,

704
00:37:56.519 --> 00:37:58.679
<v Speaker 5>and they shut it down. There was not CLD in

705
00:37:58.679 --> 00:38:02.480
<v Speaker 5>that account. We don't know what it was. But one

706
00:38:02.559 --> 00:38:05.960
<v Speaker 5>of the differences is the playing of the promos. And

707
00:38:06.159 --> 00:38:08.400
<v Speaker 5>even if you're playing them like so plus four hundred

708
00:38:08.400 --> 00:38:10.360
<v Speaker 5>plus five hundred, let's say that's the agreed upon off,

709
00:38:10.760 --> 00:38:13.280
<v Speaker 5>even if you're putting them on a plus twenty two thousand,

710
00:38:13.960 --> 00:38:17.519
<v Speaker 5>I still think that may raise a flag. Right, this

711
00:38:17.639 --> 00:38:20.280
<v Speaker 5>guy might not be playing it perfectly optimally, but he

712
00:38:20.480 --> 00:38:22.800
<v Speaker 5>is still putting it on a large dog. Now, if

713
00:38:22.840 --> 00:38:24.679
<v Speaker 5>I'm betting two thousand a game, and I go and

714
00:38:24.719 --> 00:38:26.400
<v Speaker 5>I put a two hundred dollars free bet on a

715
00:38:26.400 --> 00:38:29.119
<v Speaker 5>minus two hundred or a minus one ten, what does

716
00:38:29.119 --> 00:38:31.800
<v Speaker 5>that look like? So I feel like I'm in a

717
00:38:32.840 --> 00:38:35.599
<v Speaker 5>rock and a hard place in that situation where the

718
00:38:35.639 --> 00:38:38.960
<v Speaker 5>best option is just to ignore them completely. But we

719
00:38:39.000 --> 00:38:40.760
<v Speaker 5>don't have a ton of data on that yet. But

720
00:38:40.800 --> 00:38:42.519
<v Speaker 5>it's where we're moving right now.

721
00:38:43.440 --> 00:38:48.199
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, sometimes it can just speak too much to ignore,

722
00:38:48.440 --> 00:38:49.000
<v Speaker 2>you know, I.

723
00:38:48.920 --> 00:38:52.440
<v Speaker 5>Mean right, Yeah, some of the VIP counts. If you

724
00:38:52.480 --> 00:38:55.639
<v Speaker 5>can get a deposit bonus, we'll take that. We'll take

725
00:38:55.679 --> 00:38:59.239
<v Speaker 5>a deposit monosa. I should say on once the account

726
00:38:59.239 --> 00:39:03.760
<v Speaker 5>becomes VI, we've always accepted what they provide, right, you

727
00:39:03.800 --> 00:39:07.440
<v Speaker 5>want to provide us thousand dolly bets, et cetera. My

728
00:39:07.559 --> 00:39:10.280
<v Speaker 5>biggest concern with betting the small stuff that they're just

729
00:39:10.320 --> 00:39:14.239
<v Speaker 5>automatically providing the accounts right now is just that doesn't

730
00:39:14.280 --> 00:39:18.159
<v Speaker 5>match my bet sizing at all as right, So once

731
00:39:18.199 --> 00:39:21.480
<v Speaker 5>they provide something that does match with what we're doing,

732
00:39:21.599 --> 00:39:23.639
<v Speaker 5>will will take them up on that. To we have

733
00:39:23.719 --> 00:39:25.559
<v Speaker 5>in the past, this account we're not yet, We're going

734
00:39:25.639 --> 00:39:26.400
<v Speaker 5>to see what happens.

735
00:39:28.960 --> 00:39:32.480
<v Speaker 1>How do you see what you're doing changing over the

736
00:39:32.519 --> 00:39:34.559
<v Speaker 1>next few years.

737
00:39:34.960 --> 00:39:37.559
<v Speaker 5>As long as as long as they allow the prediction

738
00:39:37.679 --> 00:39:42.320
<v Speaker 5>markets to offer sports books. There's sports odds to almost

739
00:39:42.400 --> 00:39:44.400
<v Speaker 5>every state in the United States. We're going to be

740
00:39:44.880 --> 00:39:48.199
<v Speaker 5>heavily moving towards those as most people in a lot

741
00:39:48.199 --> 00:39:51.960
<v Speaker 5>of ways. But we are in the camp where we

742
00:39:52.159 --> 00:39:57.559
<v Speaker 5>love high ROI and small edges. So I don't see

743
00:39:57.719 --> 00:39:59.960
<v Speaker 5>what we're doing changing that much in the next couple

744
00:40:00.119 --> 00:40:02.480
<v Speaker 5>of years as far as how we're tackling and what

745
00:40:02.639 --> 00:40:07.199
<v Speaker 5>markets we're tackling. I would rather work expanding the amount

746
00:40:07.280 --> 00:40:11.119
<v Speaker 5>we can get down on a high edge than moving

747
00:40:11.159 --> 00:40:14.519
<v Speaker 5>into the tougher markets and trying to get more down

748
00:40:14.559 --> 00:40:17.079
<v Speaker 5>on the on the smaller edge at this point in time,

749
00:40:17.199 --> 00:40:19.760
<v Speaker 5>So prediction markets, I.

750
00:40:19.719 --> 00:40:23.119
<v Speaker 2>Think you're that that makes sense. You said the high

751
00:40:23.679 --> 00:40:30.440
<v Speaker 2>ROI and small edge and those are smaller bets.

752
00:40:30.760 --> 00:40:32.159
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, So I want to I want to work on

753
00:40:32.159 --> 00:40:36.679
<v Speaker 5>getting bigger bets on the higher ROI rather than moving

754
00:40:36.719 --> 00:40:39.440
<v Speaker 5>into an industry or moving into a market that already

755
00:40:39.480 --> 00:40:44.119
<v Speaker 5>allows bigger bets but with a lower ry. Got it right, So,

756
00:40:44.840 --> 00:40:48.119
<v Speaker 5>and uh, there are a ton of legal sports books

757
00:40:48.159 --> 00:40:51.960
<v Speaker 5>all throughout America and a ton of illegal ones too,

758
00:40:52.639 --> 00:40:56.440
<v Speaker 5>and so those aren't going away anytime soon. There are

759
00:40:56.559 --> 00:41:00.320
<v Speaker 5>some like obviously things move and change. We lost Super Book,

760
00:41:00.519 --> 00:41:05.719
<v Speaker 5>we lost we're losing stations, both unique numbers, but new

761
00:41:05.760 --> 00:41:09.360
<v Speaker 5>competitors come in right and they're going to be offering

762
00:41:09.639 --> 00:41:13.480
<v Speaker 5>and unique opportunities. Like with the Caesars kind of takeover.

763
00:41:13.559 --> 00:41:16.079
<v Speaker 5>I was extremely worried about it at first, as like, no,

764
00:41:16.199 --> 00:41:18.760
<v Speaker 5>that's the worst one. They'd absolutely don't have in play.

765
00:41:18.800 --> 00:41:22.159
<v Speaker 5>We have a very hateful relationship with each other, but

766
00:41:23.039 --> 00:41:26.639
<v Speaker 5>with the way they've kind of structured their relationships with

767
00:41:26.679 --> 00:41:29.039
<v Speaker 5>some of these other sportsbooks, it just opened up opportunities

768
00:41:29.079 --> 00:41:31.480
<v Speaker 5>for us. And that was just recent and there are

769
00:41:31.960 --> 00:41:35.000
<v Speaker 5>there's an ever changing marketplace, so I don't see it

770
00:41:35.079 --> 00:41:37.440
<v Speaker 5>changing too much. We're gonna get as much of the

771
00:41:37.480 --> 00:41:40.159
<v Speaker 5>wreck money as we can in the prediction markets, but

772
00:41:40.280 --> 00:41:42.880
<v Speaker 5>we're not looking to go toe to toe with against

773
00:41:43.079 --> 00:41:46.800
<v Speaker 5>the other groups out there. That's hard money and we're

774
00:41:46.840 --> 00:41:48.880
<v Speaker 5>not at a stage yet where we need to do that.

775
00:41:48.960 --> 00:41:51.360
<v Speaker 5>There is plenty of money just ready to be taken

776
00:41:51.679 --> 00:41:53.480
<v Speaker 5>all across the United States.

777
00:41:53.960 --> 00:41:57.400
<v Speaker 1>With top down betting, you don't really have to be

778
00:41:57.960 --> 00:42:02.440
<v Speaker 1>all that knowledgeable about the games as to whether the

779
00:42:03.360 --> 00:42:09.719
<v Speaker 1>Cowboys should be a two point favorite, a four point favorite,

780
00:42:09.760 --> 00:42:12.840
<v Speaker 1>a six point favorite, and all you have to do

781
00:42:13.000 --> 00:42:16.639
<v Speaker 1>is look for the differences and moves. Is that correct?

782
00:42:17.199 --> 00:42:19.480
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, in a fashion, we're trying to figure out what

783
00:42:19.599 --> 00:42:23.039
<v Speaker 5>we believe the fair price to be through the bets

784
00:42:23.079 --> 00:42:25.360
<v Speaker 5>that are coming in so that we can fill it

785
00:42:25.400 --> 00:42:28.440
<v Speaker 5>when it's a little bit more quiet. But as far

786
00:42:28.519 --> 00:42:32.360
<v Speaker 5>as having to have knowledge about the sports zero. I

787
00:42:32.400 --> 00:42:36.800
<v Speaker 5>care very little about any of the actual sports that

788
00:42:36.880 --> 00:42:39.760
<v Speaker 5>are going on, and like watching them like who's the thing,

789
00:42:39.920 --> 00:42:43.519
<v Speaker 5>Like who's the big player? Who's the good team? That

790
00:42:43.639 --> 00:42:46.920
<v Speaker 5>isn't completely relevant, but what is relevant is the important

791
00:42:46.920 --> 00:42:50.000
<v Speaker 5>players' names. So I need to know the names of

792
00:42:50.079 --> 00:42:53.400
<v Speaker 5>certain players. Have to be able to track that because

793
00:42:53.440 --> 00:42:56.880
<v Speaker 5>injury information is key. You need even if you're not

794
00:42:56.960 --> 00:43:00.400
<v Speaker 5>betting it because the market's blowing up because underdog released

795
00:43:00.440 --> 00:43:04.119
<v Speaker 5>to Lebron James injury news, you still want to know

796
00:43:04.159 --> 00:43:08.880
<v Speaker 5>why it moved right and understand that that piece of it.

797
00:43:10.000 --> 00:43:12.760
<v Speaker 2>You don't do any in game betting, do.

798
00:43:12.760 --> 00:43:15.400
<v Speaker 4>You very very little.

799
00:43:15.719 --> 00:43:17.920
<v Speaker 5>I know there are a lot of guys that do that,

800
00:43:18.239 --> 00:43:21.880
<v Speaker 5>but my issue, my issue with doing top down on

801
00:43:21.920 --> 00:43:24.159
<v Speaker 5>the live side is you'd have to use an odd

802
00:43:24.239 --> 00:43:27.360
<v Speaker 5>screen that is going to market and it's going to say, hey,

803
00:43:27.360 --> 00:43:29.320
<v Speaker 5>this is this is a good play at this point

804
00:43:29.360 --> 00:43:31.559
<v Speaker 5>in time, and then you would have to bet it

805
00:43:31.639 --> 00:43:34.320
<v Speaker 5>when it says that on the screen. And so whenever

806
00:43:34.360 --> 00:43:36.440
<v Speaker 5>it says it's arpa ball on the screen, whenever it

807
00:43:36.440 --> 00:43:38.679
<v Speaker 5>says it's something that's nature that's going to be marked

808
00:43:38.679 --> 00:43:41.440
<v Speaker 5>by the sports book. And we don't want to lose

809
00:43:41.480 --> 00:43:45.920
<v Speaker 5>our accounts betting these live edges that are pretty obvious

810
00:43:45.960 --> 00:43:48.559
<v Speaker 5>at this point in time. If there's a way they

811
00:43:48.639 --> 00:43:52.039
<v Speaker 5>can that, we could feel for somebody that had an

812
00:43:52.199 --> 00:43:54.639
<v Speaker 5>edge that they felt would be disguised in the live

813
00:43:54.679 --> 00:43:57.840
<v Speaker 5>market would be a little bit more interested. And if

814
00:43:58.360 --> 00:44:01.239
<v Speaker 5>you can bet big on NBA Live or something of

815
00:44:01.239 --> 00:44:03.960
<v Speaker 5>that nature right at the beginning, I think that would

816
00:44:03.960 --> 00:44:07.039
<v Speaker 5>be where the edge would come in, would be right

817
00:44:07.079 --> 00:44:09.920
<v Speaker 5>at the beginning of the game. And if you have

818
00:44:10.000 --> 00:44:12.280
<v Speaker 5>unlimited accounts, A lot of these a lot of these

819
00:44:12.280 --> 00:44:15.360
<v Speaker 5>groups you hear that are betting live very successfully. They

820
00:44:15.400 --> 00:44:16.519
<v Speaker 5>have a lot of accounts.

821
00:44:18.639 --> 00:44:22.320
<v Speaker 1>As we post this, the Dodgers have lost i don't know,

822
00:44:22.880 --> 00:44:25.719
<v Speaker 1>seven out of eight games something like that, and so

823
00:44:25.920 --> 00:44:30.480
<v Speaker 1>a lot of recreational better will use that information to

824
00:44:30.639 --> 00:44:35.400
<v Speaker 1>determine whether they should bet the Dodgers today. So any

825
00:44:35.440 --> 00:44:38.679
<v Speaker 1>way that you can ride that way and get value out.

826
00:44:38.519 --> 00:44:41.719
<v Speaker 5>Of that, I don't want to give a blanket, yes,

827
00:44:42.119 --> 00:44:44.199
<v Speaker 5>because I think that would be an incorrect way to

828
00:44:44.280 --> 00:44:53.320
<v Speaker 5>do things. But sometimes the models favor specific teams for

829
00:44:53.400 --> 00:44:58.079
<v Speaker 5>an extended period of time, and sometimes it can be

830
00:44:58.360 --> 00:45:01.239
<v Speaker 5>just betting on the exact same team over and over

831
00:45:01.280 --> 00:45:05.159
<v Speaker 5>and over again, almost blindly. For just an example, we

832
00:45:05.199 --> 00:45:08.360
<v Speaker 5>bet on the Rockies run line one hundred games in.

833
00:45:08.320 --> 00:45:09.360
<v Speaker 4>A row last year.

834
00:45:10.199 --> 00:45:13.199
<v Speaker 6>It just it was the play and it was great

835
00:45:13.199 --> 00:45:15.679
<v Speaker 6>and it was very profitable, and I didn't need after

836
00:45:15.719 --> 00:45:17.599
<v Speaker 6>we figured it out, we didn't really need to do

837
00:45:17.639 --> 00:45:20.000
<v Speaker 6>anything except see what the best prices in the market

838
00:45:20.000 --> 00:45:22.199
<v Speaker 6>in the morning that the Rockies run line.

839
00:45:22.960 --> 00:45:26.840
<v Speaker 5>So yes, in a way, Bob. But also I don't

840
00:45:26.880 --> 00:45:31.239
<v Speaker 5>recommend blindly like following a seven game losing streak, because

841
00:45:31.280 --> 00:45:33.440
<v Speaker 5>that's not predictive in any fashion.

842
00:45:34.320 --> 00:45:36.320
<v Speaker 2>Well, you wouldn't know which way to bet it, right

843
00:45:36.440 --> 00:45:39.320
<v Speaker 2>because they lost seven in a row, they're due to

844
00:45:39.400 --> 00:45:43.880
<v Speaker 2>win or they I guess they're good.

845
00:45:45.000 --> 00:45:46.760
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, absolutely, just.

846
00:45:46.760 --> 00:45:49.400
<v Speaker 2>Like Makara players.

847
00:45:49.760 --> 00:45:52.440
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, they just Paul paull in those streaks, and baseball

848
00:45:52.480 --> 00:45:55.119
<v Speaker 5>would be one that you could use all of those

849
00:45:55.199 --> 00:45:58.519
<v Speaker 5>methods from the casino games.

850
00:45:56.960 --> 00:46:02.039
<v Speaker 1>And thank you very much, Milkshake. This was very informative.

851
00:46:02.599 --> 00:46:06.119
<v Speaker 1>Thank you, Richard. Go out and hit Royal Flush everybody,

852
00:46:06.800 --> 00:46:08.239
<v Speaker 1>good day.

853
00:46:09.119 --> 00:46:13.960
<v Speaker 4>Free audio post production byophonic dot Com