Speaker 1: Welcome everyone to props and Parlays today. I am Andy Lang,
being joined as always by my fellow prop betting expert
Andrew McGinnis. It's the first Monday night football show of
the year. Andrew, welcome. Let's get into it. We're just
gonna be breaking down bears and vikings. We're gonna go
through all the different categories. Then Andrew and I are
gonna build a same game parlay. We each get to
pick two legs. Look We'll go over anytime touchdowns, and
then we'll do look ahead. So Andrew takeaways from week
one real.
Speaker 2: Quick takeaways from week one variance? How about that?
Speaker 3: I mean everyone talks about it, Everyone talks about going
into the year. Hey, be careful with this team, Be
careful with that. We saw a lot of turnovers. We
saw a lot of missed field goals, missed extra points.
We saw some guys get heavily targeted, some guys not
get it much. I think we talked about it in
the against the spread world and in the totals world,
but we might not mention it as much in the
prop betting world. But I would say that it's definitely
a take a step back and breathe, as a lot
of handicappers would say, because you know what, it's just
one week. So looking at some teams that struggled offensively,
er some teams that did really well offensively, doesn't mean
you shouldn't go back to that guy from a prop perspective.
Or this one player that went off for one hundred
yards in the air doesn't mean you need to go
back to them either. So I would just say, overall, Andy,
week one is still week one for prop betters, and
doesn't mean these players are going to replicate that in
week two.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, look at teams like the Bengals. They
were a stats disaster. The Lions were stats disasters. So yeah,
don't panic. And maybe this is hopefully the books overreact.
You know, we always talk about the public overreacting, Andrew,
hopefully the books overreact to week one and we get
some really good lines. So all right, let's break down
Monday and Night football. While we're doing this, guys, please
hit the like button. It really really helps us out.
Post in the comment section below your favorite prop for tonight.
Give us the same game, parlay, Just give us something
actually did that give us the same game? Parlay? Go crazy?
Give me ten to one same game, parlay in the coup.
Let's let's let's let's en a banger tonight. So all right, angel,
let's start with passing props. We got Caleb Williams and
we got JJ McCarthy. I'll go first here and just
tell you I'm gonna take under two hundred and twenty
three and a half from JJ McCarthy. This seems like
a dangerous spot for a guy making his first start
Monday night football. I would expect them to try and
run the ball and try and keep this guy out
of harm's way. This is a Bears and Vikings both
are ranked in the top ten in offensive line from PFF.
The Vikings secondary ranks twenty seventh. So if I'm the Vikings,
I'm given a heavy dose of Jordan Mason and Aaron
Jones tonight. So I'm taking unders on JJ McCarthy. Not
because I'm going all in on saying I don't think
he's very good, but I'm not sure the opportunities are
going to be there. And we saw we saw some
bad quarterback play yesterday. So what do you think about
passing props?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's I'm right there. With you on
that one.
Speaker 3: Probably look towards some unders with McCarthy as well, and
again looking at the unders for him, it's not just
for him being young, it's also what you just mentioned
Andy playing to their strengths. You know, I think they're
going to protect him well. I think it's gonna be
a lot of tight end play, a lot of running
backs potentially catching balls, and a lot of short passes. So,
you know, sometimes we talk about, you know, do we
look at receptions or yards for receivers. We look at
completions or attempts for quarterbacks. From where I'm sitting, I
think if we were looking towards an under and we
were picking completions or attempts tonight, I'd probably be looking
more towards the completions former cards, because I do think
the attempts numbers are Sorry. I was looking for the
attempts because I do think that there's gonna be just
so much running going on that he could complete his
passes because it's going to be a lot more safer
passes and short passes and connect to that. So probably
look towards the under there. I agree with you on
that one, but I my main one that I like
as far as the passing today here, and this has
a lot to do with Ben Johnson, new guy in
town for Chicago here, and a lot of pressure aro
on Caleb Williams coming into this second season. I liked
what I saw in the preseason. I know we're not
allowed to say that because it's the preseason, but all
the quotes, everything I'm seeing, I feel like they're gonna
open things up a bit.
Speaker 2: They're not gonna be sha here.
Speaker 3: So what I like is over thirty five and a
half for the longest pass completion for Caleb Williams.
Speaker 2: There's going to be a time they're gonna.
Speaker 3: Air it out, whether it's a play that gives them
the lead, whether they're down in the game and they
need to make up for it. He's going to air
it out a little bit here. And last year his
farthest was forty seven yards. But I think we're gonna
see a lot more excitement, a lot more kind of
plays on maybe third and long they catch us off
guard a little bit, don't just go for that first down,
but they go deep. So Caleb Williams' longest pass completion over.
Speaker 1: I'm with you that I think this offense is going
to be much much better. I think Caleb is gonna
play with a lot more confidence. I actually have him
noted for over twenty and a half completions. I went
back and look at Jared Goff last year because that's
you know, that's where Ben Johnson was, and boy, the
last eight games of the season, he flew over this
completion and he had Uh. Caleb Williams had eighteen and
thirty two completions in two games against Minnesota last year.
So if I think Caleb Williams is gonna take a
step up, if I think, and also this running game
of the Bears, which we'll get to in rushing props.
I like swift, but it's not the Lions. You know,
last year, Jared Goff had these two amazing running backs
that could and the ball too, and he was still
completing a lot of passes. So I'm going with Caleb
Williams over his completions. And I'll just spoiler. I'm gonna
throw Kayleb Williams to not throw an interception in our
same game parlay because it's minus one oh six. We
hit two props this weekend on not to throw interceptions,
and these are your rints and repeat every week. We're
gonna play Jordan Love to not throw an interception, and
we're gonna play Justin Herbert to not throw an interception.
Caleb Williams he only threw an inner perception like four
games last year. He doesn't he throws it away or
he takes a sack. He just doesn't really force the
ball in a whole lot. And I don't think he
had any against Minnesota. So I think we're in agreement here.
We like Caleb a little bit and we're a little
bit nervous for JJ McCarthy.
Speaker 3: Yes, I'm curious to see Andy how fast they do
kind of let him loose a little bit, Like we're
pretty we're essentially saying that we expect one guy to
be handheld tonight and one guy we expect to absolutely
come flying out of the gates.
Speaker 2: We'll see how true that ends up being.
Speaker 3: But I'm curious to see how exactly loose they let
him get right away.
Speaker 1: Well, it could be a situation where like if the
vikings are down, it could get fun because then McCarthy
has to you know, we see him in a hurry
up offense, We have to see him open it up
so that would be Uh, this could turn out to
be a very entertaining game. Let's move to the rushing props.
Andrew Jordan Mason's rushing total is thirty nine and a half. Boy,
that doesn't sound like a backup. That sounds like a
time share. What's your take on these rushing prop numbers?
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I agree with that one as well.
Speaker 3: I think I would probably look towards Aaron Jones rushing
attempts under so I guess that kind of correlates a
little bit as well. I think we're going to see
a little bit of everything, so I would look towards
Jordan Mason of course if I'm looking towards the under
there on Aaron Jones. But one thing I wanted to
mention is the fact that you know, looking at looking
at a guy that I just said is not going
to pass the ball a time, or when he is passing,
he's going to be a little bit more safe. I
love looking at quarterback rushing props. And I know this
is a young man here, but I think the number
is just way too low. It was sixteen and a
half now it's eighteen and a half with JJ McCarthy Andy,
But I'm still interested in it. You know, I think
he's still going to face some pressure. I think that
he's going to be smart hold onto the ball, and
he's more athletic than you might think. You know, you
look at some of his tape. This guy can move,
he'll escape the pocket, and he's not going to blast
out for twenty five five yard run. But if he
gives me a few rushing attempts, I get bet you
he gets over this number here and again, if we're
thinking it's gonna be a lot of dink and dunk
or over the top to tight ends, who's to say
he's not gonna get over there a little bit? To me,
this number should be more around twenty five and a half.
So I'm happy to take JJ McCarthy over. But yeah,
I think that Mason under on rushing attempts, or excuse me,
that Aaron Jones under rushing attempts is good just because
I do expect it to be a pretty shared load.
Speaker 2: And that's gonna be one of those ones. I'll tell you.
Speaker 3: I watched the game with somebody that was a fantasy
owner of Kenneth Walker yesterday and I have a feeling
this this type of situation might end up being the same.
Speaker 2: As what you saw there yesterday.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Like it's on the goal line and you're wondering
who's going to be the guy that ends up going
in there to punch it in. That might be a
problem if you have a fantasy running backs on this team.
Speaker 1: I think more teams should do it from an NFL perspective,
but god, from fantasy and props, it makes it an
absolute nightmare to figure it out. I mean, but like
you watched Seattle and it was like, hey, they were
both good and healthy, and you know, none of them
was neither of them were beaten down by the end
of the game. So it works NFL wise.
Speaker 3: But oh yeah, he was plus one Kenneth Walker first first.
Speaker 2: Drive of the game, they're on the one yard line.
He's not even out there.
Speaker 1: I think this rushing prop on Caleb Williams is interesting.
I'm looking at his attempts four and a half. This
is a guy that rushed ten times against Minnesota last year,
and when you look at his stat line, I mean,
it is a lot of fours and fives and sixes.
It's a little bit juiced. It's minus one forty. But again,
Niel's kneel downs count. So if they're up and he
happens to be out there and grabs a couple kneel downs,
he is mobile. We've seen him run. I mean, this
is a guy that's had long rushes of eleven, twenty four,
twenty three, sixteen, so you know he can get out
there and move. I expected this to be five and
a half, not four and a half. So I'm gonna
look at Kayleb Williams to go over that, and I
I think DeAndre Swift could be really really utilized like
the Jamir Gibbs type. Rowle is he Jamiir Gibbs? No,
but could he be used like that? So I'm looking
at this seventy five and a half rushing and receiving.
He averaged nine point two yards per reception last year,
so anytime he caught the ball bang, there's just nine
yards for you. So there's not much depth in the
Chicago back thought. Rosa On Johnson is the backup. He's questionable,
but he went over this nine times last year, So
I think I think Swift could get a lot of work.
He was a guy I wanted in fantasy drafts and
he was a guy I was interested in week one,
and I don't know. I don't know how to dip
my toe in the water because if he has a
big game and it's like, oh yeah, he's gonna get
eighteen carries and six catches every week, it's just like, uh,
the cat's out of the bag here. But what do
you think about DeAndre Swift here?
Speaker 3: I like idea behind you know, guys that can can
catch out and receive. I think when you and I
have talked about it over the years in the show,
like looking at look at Brece Hall this weekend, look
at Travis Etn this weekend, I mean, if you can
bring that to your team, I mean all kinds of guys,
I mean even Derrick Henry like yesterday, I mean you
and I feel like Derek Kenry's been the all star
of the show since we started doing.
Speaker 2: This, but he's hit.
Speaker 3: He also hit his receiving yard prop Andy yesterday. Like
imagine if you took his receiving prop and you're like,
oh no, he's got like one hundred and fifty rushing yards.
Oh no, he's got you. Like, he also hit the
receiving So I think I would look towards that as well.
I think he's gonna be utilized both ways. So I
wouldn't talk anybody out of that rushing and receiving prop.
I'm right there with you on that one. Do you
think that when you look at at him though, if
you look at the Caleb Williams rushing and just how
mobile he can be, does that make us like the
reception and receiving side of him more or if he's
sitting there, you know, thinking about what the game plan is,
do you think that that makes him think, all right, well,
I'm probably gonna be catching short passes a lot more
than a running because like, even look at I'm not
saying like Josh Allen didn't run that much last night,
but look at James Cook like he's like if you
bet his rushing yards over like going back to last
year as well, and you watch him catch a two
yard pass and then run forty yards, like, how pissed
are you? Because you're not getting any rushing yards out
of that?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 1: He's one. He's one guy in the league where you
can't just bet one. He's a guy you have to
bet bet both. And you bring up a great point
with with it, because yeah, last night You're like, oh,
how many yards did he have a ton? And it
was like, but yeah, but hardly any rushing because you know,
had that big screen bat. So yeah, he's He's one
you and I talked about we really don't like the
category of rushing plus receiving. It can be really hard.
But he's one that that checks the box that I
just have a feeling. Swift is going to be that guy,
I guess. Jamiir Gibbs is probably another one that you're
you're looking at taking the combo of.
Speaker 2: So yeah, you know you can't take one of them,
really you shouldn't.
Speaker 1: No, no, no, So there's probably the only three guys
that I would even say is an option at that point. So, Andrew,
what do you have up for everyone to wait your
talk today? On this Monday?
Speaker 3: I'm excited I got a five percent play. I actually
wasn't planning on it, didn't have it up for a while.
The more I broke down this game, the more I
found a prop that I just really really like. So
eighty three percent run on NFL four percent and five
percent bets combined, So best bets you can get that
up right now? When I have a special going up
this afternoon. So if you want to wait to buy
that instead of the play, we're gonna do buy one
month of NFL and we're gonna give the rest of
the CFL season for free. So you're buy one full
month of my team totals, sides, totals props in the NFL.
We're throwing in CFL plus the playoffs at no additional cost.
So super excited. Five percent play going tonight. I was
researching the card super super high and found one. I
really liked those five percent worthy so can't wait for that.
How about yourself, Andy, what's going on with you?
Speaker 1: I'm gonna sit out tonight's game. We went six and
four yesterday. I'm extremely happy with that. If I can
walk away with a six and four week every week,
that's sixty percent For all you math nerds out there,
I'm gonna be really happy. So there was a bunch
I liked. I put that Caleb Williams over completions as
a free play. But I'm just gonna take the winnings
from this week and move on and just be happy
to say, hey, we were profitable in week one. But
if you want all sports, we're still running that special
promo code Andy thirty a n D Y three zero.
It gets you fifty percent off thirty days with a play,
So you're getting all of our plays, MMA, you're getting
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and fifty percent off doesn't get much better than that,
It really doesn't. Were number one last three years in profits.
So just been a great run. And we always say, hey,
you haven't tried for the first time. Give us seven days,
give us a month. If you give me a month,
I think you're gonna be happy with the results. And
that way you can see get thirty days of what
we do and how we approach this. These are plays
that we bet with our own money. Every play that
we put out we have our money on. So take
advantage of that. Promo code Andy three zero gets fifty
percent off thirty days. Let's move to let's take a
look at receiving here, Andrew, I'll go first. I'm going
under Justin Jefferson, but I'm looking at his receptions. If
I don't trust JJ McCarthy here tonight, I don't think
I'm gonna trust Jefferson right away. But I want his
under receptions because I don't I don't want the yards
in case he catches a long one. But to say
McCarthy and Jefferson get on the same page seven times,
I mean, isn't. I mean he's the one they're gonna
put all of their all of their attention to in
the secondary. So I'm going justin Jefferson under his receptions here.
Seven is a lot in JJ McCarthy's first game. Could
they get there? They're behind, yeah, but man, I just
that seems like a lot. We saw Jamar Chase disappoint
so not all. They're not all going to have great games.
So Jefferson under six and a half is one thing
that I'm looking at. What about you?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like that, Andy.
Speaker 3: And you know what's funny is like there's a lot
of teams out there that head success, but that main
guy didn't have success, right, So it's not like you're
saying that they can't win the game without him going
over this number, right, And that's the thing is And
we're looking at low volume potentially for the passing attempts
overall with them. So I like that one quite a bit.
I'll tell you one that I'm looking at here and
this is an under is Adam feeling. And I was
debating do I look at the receptions or do I
look at the yards? And you know, two and a
half receptions under plus money, And then I started to
think more and more about it, and I was like,
updated number thirty two and a half for the receiving yards.
He very well could catch a couple of short balls,
like shorter ish ball that keep him still under that
thirty two and a half number.
Speaker 2: So I'm going to look towards the under on him.
You know, with the running game.
Speaker 3: Expected with a couple guys, it's being expected to being
utilized in the running game, with tight ends utilized, with
running backs pass catching as well, There's only so much
room for receivers. So I mean, justin Jefferson is still
going to get a handful himself. I think I'll look
towards the under on receiving guards for feeling. You know,
he could very well surprise me and be that guy
that slots right in and has himself a kind of
a sleeper type of a day. But as of right now,
I got to see it before I believe it. I'll
take his under there and one guy that I like
is t J. Hawkinson over. I think he's gonna be
that safety blanket. He's going to be the second favorite
target of the team. I think he's going to be
someone that JJ McCarty's gonna find quite frequently, and it's
gonna be one of those guys that he's not gonna
find to make that big play. He's gonna find to
move the chains, kind of get that flow going, and
he'll make him feel very comfortable and be a guy
that he can rely upon.
Speaker 2: So his number is forty two and a half yards.
T J. Hawkinson to the over.
Speaker 1: So I'm with you on this, Adam. The feeling I
think you could get really really cute with this. So
I'm messing around with this. So what if you did
what if you did Adam Thielen under thirty two and
a half but over two and a half, you can
get four to one on that. So what if he
catches three short passes and you know, just does as
a safety blank it just doesn't get hardly any yards.
His longest catch is sixteen and a half. That seems
ambitious to say the least. So I don't know. I
kind of like Adam feeling over receptions. I'm not betting it,
but I like where you're going that the yards seems
a little inflated. Here here's another guy I'm going under.
I just I don't what if Roma Doonsay just never happens.
What if he's just never a thing? So I'm going
under fifty and a half receiving. This guy went under
this in thirteen games. Whenever I watched him, it just
didn't seem like him and Cambleb Williams were on the
same page like ever. So I just maybe I'm wrong,
maybe new offense, but I this is Roma Duneesay, and
if he's not good again tonight, this number is just
gonna keep getting lower and lower and lower, and then
he's gonna have one game where he catches a long
one and then they'll they'll put it up. But I'm
kind of out on the Roman Dunsay thing he didn't impress.
Speaker 3: The only thing is with the new coach, it kind
of he seems like a guy and just based on
some of the stuff I've read, like he seems like
a guy that could just out of nowhere be a
lot better and be more involved. So he's kind of
like the ten foot poll prop for me, like, I
don't even want to go near anything he's involved in
because he very well could have himself a game, or
he could just minimally be involved. So curious, Like that number, Andy,
that number is kind of weird to me as well,
Like it's it's kind of setting a number where the
expectations are like, Okay, he could do something. But then
it's also like, based on what I've seen before, I
don't really want to play anything with him. So, you know,
we've got one new coach angle, and we've got a
new quarterback angle. Obviously we know about Ben Johnson, but
at the end of the day, it's still the Bears.
You know, we can't forget who it is right now,
We can't forget the team.
Speaker 1: It's true, It's true. Yeah, that rooman dune say number,
how vanilla can you get? Fifty and a half? That
just screams the books don't know that. The books don't
have an opinion on this one. So let's move to
any time touchdown scores, And man, is it fun when
you have a game where everybody is plus money? Every
person is plus money. I'm kicking myself. The James Cook
touchdown prop was amazing last year and that was one
that we completely forgot to stay away from. But we
hit the James Connor one on. I've thought that they'd
score a lot more points against the Saints, but he
does get in there. So I mean, we're looking at
Justin Jefferson plus one thirty five, DeAndre Swift plus one fifty,
Aaron Jones plus one seventy five. Which one sticks out
to you?
Speaker 3: I think DeAndre Swift is probably want to look at.
I know it's not the biggest and most juicy odds,
but hey, it's still pretty good. And I think if
we're going to talk about him being used as a
pass catcher as well as running the ball, it just
opens up more opportunities. You know, if they're on the
goal line, We're not just talking about him punching it
in from you know, two or three yards that they
get close. We're talking about, you know, maybe them being
ten yards out and him catching a couple of yard
pass and being able to run into the end zone
that way or break through. To me, there's just kind
of the more opportunities and the more different ways he
can score, the more I'm interested in. So I do
think that He's somebody I want to look at. And hey,
if I'm going to talk about a guy that I
like for receiving yards, a guy that's going to be
super comfortable for JJ McCarthy to throw to, then I
got to look at my tight end. I love the
tight ends. I love betting these on primetime games. I'm
looking at Hawkinson over or sorry to get his touchdown.
Speaker 2: And when you look at the number.
Speaker 3: Here twelve to one for first touchdown score and anytimes
plus two fifty, I'll do a little sprinkle on that
first touchdown.
Speaker 1: You kind of took the words right out of my mouth.
I like. I like Loveland as well. I think if
you played both of those tight ends, I think I
think one of them hits. Obviously there's no history with Loveland.
I just know that Bears like we're really really excited
to draft him. They drafted him over Tyler, you know,
over Warren, and Warren falls to my colts, Holly, Louisah,
thank you very much and take it. And he was
good yesterday. But yeah, if you're the Bears, don't you
want to roll out your new your new toy, like, okay, yeah,
we drafted him over More and watch what this guy
can do. So, like, we have no numbers, I have
no trends to really back this one up.
Speaker 3: But I was looking at that one plus two fifty
and plus three ninety Andy, Yeah, yeah.
Speaker 1: One of them catches the touchdown. You're very, very happy.
Can I interest you in a Bear's defensive touchdown? JJ
McCarthy little behind on an out route that gets taken
to the house five to one. That one cut five
to ones. Not too I mean that's a complete ripoff.
Like for a price, defensive touchdowns need to be ten
to one, Like having only five to one is criminal
at that point. But I'm just saying, defensive touchdown might
not be the worst the worst thing in the world here,
So yeah, I'm not. I don't know. Maybe we're overthinking
it and it's just Justin Jefferson at plus one thirty five.
How many games are gonna get Justin Jefferson at plus
one thirty five to catch it, to catch a touchdown?
But I think we've settled on on. We like DeAndre Swift,
we like the two tight ends there.
Speaker 3: I think, similarly to talking about DeAndre Swift cut pass
catching and rushing, I think Aaron Jones could be an option.
I mean, like, hey, look, we're not getting a plus
three hundred here, but plus one seventy five is what
I'm seeing in my book here. I mean, that's worth
it to me.
Speaker 1: He's the starter, you know. I mean, you know, he
was here last year, so he's probably gonna get first
crack they get down to the goal line. So all right, Andrew,
you're ready to build a same game parlay, let's do it?
All right? All right, Well, I'll go first because I
already told you one of my legs, and that's gonna
be Caleb Williams to not throw an interception. I went
over this before. This guy is a rinse and repeat
just he doesn't throw these interceptions. And for some reason,
the books just keep giving us really really good numbers
on the This is only minus one oh six, and
like I said, he only had I think it was
four games last year where he threw an interception. So
my very first piece is gonna be under half an
interception for Caleb Williams. What's your next leg?
Speaker 2: Man?
Speaker 3: I love that one, And honestly, I think it's because
he's so good at just throwing the ball away, even
like when he sees trouble.
Speaker 2: He just like tosses it away. So I like that
one quite a bit.
Speaker 3: I'll uh, I'll go back to the one I mentioned
at the start of the show with that longest completion
for Caleb Williams. So we're starting things up with the
same guy twice over thirty five and a half for
the longest completion for Caleb Williams. I feel like he's
gonna be set free. I'm looking forward to the game.
You know, last night on social media, Andy, all you
see are these tweets from people being like, hey, guys, like,
hate to break it to you, but Vikings Bears isn't
gonna be as good as Bill's Ravens. Yeah, we all
know that, but I feel like this game is gonna
be fun. This game has potential to have some fun here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we get it, we get it. That was that
was an all time game. We get it. Not every
not every gaming is going to be that fun. Thank you.
Speaker 2: Let's go to.
Speaker 1: Let's you know, we've been talking about DeAndre Swift, so
I feel like we need to do something with DeAndre Swift.
So I'm gonna take Swift to have a pretty good
night receiving here. So I'm gonna take a look at
his rushing and receiving. Give me eighty plus yards rushing
and receiving at plus one thirteen. We get to throw
throw a plus money leg in there to really up
the price here. So I'll go Dean, I'll go, yeah,
DeAndre Swift. There we go to have eighty plus rushing
and receiving. All right, finish us off.
Speaker 3: All right, Andy, we're doing two each year, and I
think we talk about there could be a shared workload here,
but this guy is still the guy we just talked
about touchdowns. I was had a few hours debating, let's
get a touchdown one here, plus one seventy five Aaron Jones,
Senior to get in the end zone.
Speaker 1: Aaron Jones of the senior. Al right, Aaron Jones, you
go in there. Oh that that really helped us out.
This is now a fourteen to one. Alright, same game,
parlat Yeah, yeah, you throw a plus one seventy five
in there to score a touchdown. Yeah, that that automatically
jumps it up. So all right, there we go. It's
Kayleb Williams to not throw an interception. Kayla Williams over
his longest eighty plus rushing and receiving for DeAndre Swift
and Aaron Jones time touchdown score. That's your fourteen to
one banger there. All right, we're going to do a
look ahead here. This is where this is to me,
the most important part of the show, where Andrew and
I go about, Hey, what are we looking for in
week two? So that way when the prop numbers come out,
we know what we're looking for, and there's an expectation
of teams and defensive units we want to fade or support.
So let's take a look at NFL Week two look
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Eastern time where we break down all the sports and
it's a football season, so we're very heavy NFL in
college football. So Andrew, let's do a week two look aheads.
This is kind of a commination of what do we
see in week one and how does it apply to
Week two? So what games are you looking for?
Speaker 2: Look? Let me start with this.
Speaker 3: I mean I was venting quite a bit, pretty much
to everybody I know, because I in fact drafted not one,
but two Philadelphia Eagle receivers in a couple of different
leagues that I'm in. And then I remember that you
don't even need to have receivers on the Eagles because
the running back and quarterback are so good at moving
the ball. But this matchup is going to be a
bit different. And I think in this game against the Chiefs,
which is going to be unbelievable, they're going to have
to throw the ball a bit more.
Speaker 2: So.
Speaker 3: I think we're going to see Aj Brown not just
reading books on the sideline, but actually getting balls thrown
in his direction. So there's gonna be a lot of
people overreacting similarly to how I was overreacting on my couch,
and we could look towards some receiver props here for
the Philadelphia Eagles.
Speaker 2: It's gonna be a good one. I think that the Chiefs.
Speaker 3: I'm not really taking a shot at their defense, but
I do think that they're going to be involved in
a lot more back and forced and shootouts this year.
Very interested to see how this Chiefs team actually starts
out like their first four or five games. But I'll
be looking towards some of those receivers for the Eagles, which.
Speaker 2: Also wasn't What else did I want to mention here?
There was one?
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, when I look at Okay for the for
the Jags, I'm not impressed by some of the stuff
I saw from the Jags yesterday. Like I want to
look towards Tee law I know this might be a
little bit shocking here because it's the Bengals. I want
to look towards Tee Law Under. I'll be looking towards
a couple of receivers under for the Jags. They're playing
the Bengals, I get it, but they just played the Panthers,
and I think that we did see a lot of
long drives from this Bengals team yesterday. I feel like
that's going to be a new thing that they want
to do, is established possession, hold onto the ball a
little bit, not be involved in these shootings. The fact is,
I know it was against the Browns, don't get me wrong,
but I think that I hear people talking about the
Jags yesterday like they played a really good team. I'm
sorry it was the Panthers, so I might look at
face eating some of the player props there for the Jags,
And overall, I want to ask you, like, did you
notice there were more fumbles and picks yesterday than usual?
Or it was that just something that maybe the games
that I happened to be watching, because it's kind of
making me want to look at a lot more interceptions
props than I ever have in the pass.
Speaker 1: Well, I was betting quarterbacks and not throw interceptions, So
I don't think I necessarily, but I think some of
the fumbles and turnovers were so exaggerated, Like the Derrick
Henry fumble was just like out of nowhere and it
literally cost them the game. That was just it. Well,
the Bravens had that game, By the way, the live
lines on Derrick Henry like at some points were like
one like seventy five and he got up to one
seventy seven rushing and then they dinged him nine yards
on that fumble. So you were winning your rushing bet,
and then all of a sudden you weren't. I noticed
kickoffs with these new rules, they're not blasting the ball
out of the end zone, so you're getting some better
starting field position. I don't know how that affects the props,
but I noticed whenever there's, you know whatever, there's a score,
you can always be like, oh, I can go grab
a snack or a drink or something, because they're just
gonna do a kickoff and blast it out of the
end zone. And now that's not really the case. I
was watching to see, you know, where the where the
ball is gonna end up after the kickoff. So I'll
have to go look at the stats and see if
there were. There were more interceptions and fumbles this week,
a couple of takeaways. The Bill's secondary is completely banged up.
They have basically no depth at this point. And I
should have done more with the Baltimore game with points
and we had a Lamar Jackson prop that cashed, but
I I drafted justin Fields in both of my fantasy leagues,
and he did exactly what I thought he was gonna do.
Ran for forty eight yards, scored a touchdown, only completed
sixteen passes, but super efficient. I think he's gonna have
another big game against this Bills team. This Bill's secondary,
they are lacking weapons, They're not healthy right now. So
I will absolutely take uh take some justin field props.
I'm just going down these. I'm taking unders on this
commander's team on Thursday night. That Packers defense look great. Andrew,
your team is really good, man. You guys had it
very You guys are very good this year.
Speaker 2: Do you see the.
Speaker 3: Rushing guards for the ti the Tigers for the Lions
when when Michael Parsons was out there negative four, negative.
Speaker 1: Four wild man wild, that's gonna be an overreaction game, like, oh,
the Lions are done. They don't have their coordinators. I'm
going back to the Lions props. I think I think
your team's just that good. Uh, calm down on my Colts.
They're not this good. They just happen to be playing
the Dolphins. Uh So if we get an inflated number
on my boy d Jones, Uh, Daniel Jones, I'm taking
the under on that one. Uh. Giants and Cowboys. I
expect a little bit more from Pickens. But by the way,
the Giants. Yeah, I would expect him to get the
ball a little bit more. The Giants were great. What
the coach say was like, this loss is absolutely not
on Russell Wilson, and they were like, well, is he
gonna be the starter next week? Is like, I don't know.
Speaker 2: I feel like what happened for a few years now.
Speaker 1: So okay, Bears and Lions. We'll see what the Bears
defense looks like. To know, I'm not gonna be scared
of the Lions offense. They're gonna get back on track.
Rams and Titans, I got nothing. Patriots and Dolphins. Wolf,
that's a bad game.
Speaker 3: Drake May, Like, you know, I used to always bet
the mac Jones over on completions on our show, and
then Drake May, I didn't really do much with you know,
they had thirteen points. Andy, he had forty six passing attempts,
thirty completions, two hundred and eighty seven yards like he
was slinging it. He doesn't really sling it that far.
But like I, unfortunately I was forced to watch this
game because I had a teaser with the Raiders plus
eight and a half, like Hunter Henry and some of these.
Speaker 2: Guys being wall forced to watch the game.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I had a gun to my head to watch
the Patriots game yesterday. But yeah, I feel like this
is I think. I feel like the Patriots are going
to be a team where you could bet player props
to the over and they could hit their over and
they still have a garbage game on the scoreboard, like
if you go through. Some guys did pretty well props
wise for the for the Patriots yesterday, but they scored
thirteen points.
Speaker 1: There. They can't have Drake May throw it forty six times.
I mean Travan Henderson had five carries. Romande I had seven.
I mean Drake May had four. They have to run
the ball a little bit more. And this wasn't like
a game where they were getting blown out. They were
they were in the lead at one point, and they
just refused to run the ball. There's going to be
an adjustment there. Yeah, forty nine Ers and Saints. My
biggest regret was not not putting anything with pearsall in.
And that's a guy that's gonna catch his longest reception
a lot. He is not a guy that just comes
over the middle. They look for him deep and even
though he only had four catches, he could have had
six seven long ones, but one hundred and eight yards.
So I'm looking over longest reception on piercel for sure. Seahawks, Steelers,
I don't have much their Browns. Ravens Flacco over his
attempts just keeps obliterating this number. Andrew, they cannot run
the ball. They didn't even try to run the ball.
They've thrown in the towel on running the ball, and
they're gonna be down. So if he starts again next week,
it was thirty six and a half, it was an
easy cash for clients. I don't know what they're gonna
put this at nice if it's below forty, I think
I'm probably playing playing the over on his attempts, he
just chucks it all over the place.
Speaker 3: I had a loser in that game yesterday and Djoku
over on receiving yards and man, he had the targets though.
That's the thing, And you know how we always talk
about and you did a good job over the years
making me be like this, Like you lose on a
player once, don't be scared to go back to them.
I actually won't be shy to go back to Endjoku again. Man,
I think that he's a guy that It's not like
I watched that game, like there were actually I think
two receptions that he had and then it was called back.
They were like, oh, the flag is back at the
offensive line' the scrimmage.
Speaker 2: I'm like, are you kidding me? Like he would have
gotten closer.
Speaker 3: So he's a guy that, if they're going to continue
to throw the ball, I think, in joke, was a
guy we could look to.
Speaker 2: And it seemed like it was a popular play too.
Speaker 3: I was like scrolling Twitter, I'm like, oh man, I'm
not the only one on this guy, and I end
up going too well.
Speaker 1: Eagles and Chiefs just rinse and repeat. Jalen Hurts score
a touchdown that was an easy cash just playing in
every game. These are Baker Mayfield over one and a
half touchdown passes, Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown, Herbert not to
throw an interception. These are players you just you just
play every single week. Boring is profitable, I promise you
in the betting world, boring is profitable. So Falcons and Vikings,
We'll see the Vikings night. Buccaneers and Texans. Whoa talk
about a team that did not address their offensive line issues?
The Texans. Yikes, that was a team I walked away
from Week one a little bit horrified of going, what
props are you taking on this Houston Texans team with
any confidence? I mean, like they're good offensive skill position players,
but their offensive line can't protect. I don't know what
to do on that team. And then Chargers and Raiders.
What you think of the Chargers game plan? That was
a lot of throwing. You think this continues? You think
this is the twenty twenty five Chargers or was that
just game plan?
Speaker 2: You know?
Speaker 3: Just trying to think back to the game, like what
I thought about it, Like this is the first time
I watched like justin Herbert though, and I said, like, man,
this guy's actually making good decisions. I actually I was
impressed by the decision making. Like I didn't see him
like look downfield, see a guy in like triple coverage
and try and make that play. Like even the run
he had to like solidify the game.
Speaker 2: Did he used to do that? I don't know if he's.
Speaker 1: Been but he got hurt there was he was hurt
last year, I remember, So he didn't run a lot.
That's another guy that doesn't throw interceptions hardly, but I
thought it was the best he's looked by far. That
was I thought. I thought easily that was the best
game eye test that he's looked. And everyone remembers how
bad he well protected.
Speaker 2: I have to say, actually he was pretty protected.
Speaker 1: It's a hardball coach team. They're going to have a
good offensive line, Like they lose one of their best
players on the offensive line and they just happened to
have him. Like, meanwhile, the Texans can't find any Chargers,
are just rough busting in starters from from other parts
of the team and other parts of life.
Speaker 3: So I had to say, I saw a clip of
Joe Burrow my friend sent me, and he was like
it was like an angle of like not like an
outside view we watched on TV.
Speaker 2: It was like.
Speaker 3: Behind him from one of those cameras they have like
on the field, and it was just like imagine being
a pro quarterback, and it was like he had like
zero point eight seconds to like snap for the ball
to be snapped, get the ball off, and then he
just got obliterated. So one thing I feel like I'm
gonna take away more this year is not being as
hard on quarterbacks and being harder on the offensive line.
Speaker 2: Yes, yes, man, he's not getting the ball out of
there fast enough.
Speaker 3: It's like, dude, he literally couldn't even think for a
second before he got smashed. So yeah, sometimes it's not
quarterbacks fault, actually, even though we always think it is.
Speaker 1: Last guy, I want to mention I didn't get to
draft him in any fantasy league, and I'm mad that
I didn't. But Jacoby Myers is just going to be
a real thing this year. Eight catches, ninety seven yards.
That entire team has been upgraded this year. And brock
Bauers may be the number one pass catcher, he's a
number one wide receiver like he had. He had three
more catches than brock Bauers did, so Jacoby Meyers over receptions,
over yards is going to be something. I mean, eight
for ninety seven that is a that's that's that's that's
a line. I think we're gonna see a lot of
in a game where Gino Smith only threw the ball
thirty four times, So I'm not too worried.
Speaker 2: I might look at it.
Speaker 3: I mean, they played the Patriots, so I might be
looking at some Chargers props just because hey, the Raiders
didn't look that good. They still just played the Patriots,
so I wasn't hot high on the Patriots at all.
Speaker 1: So truth truth. So all right, guys, that's gonna do
it for us. Go get Andrew's five percent best bet
for tonight, and Andrew, good luck on that one will
be We'll be pulling for you, so don't forget hit
the like button on our way out, don't forget to
leave a comment in the comment section. Thanks so much
for joining us. First episode of Props and Parlay today.
We will be here every Monday to get you ready
for Monday night football Props, Same Game Parlay, and then
we'll do the week to look ahead for props. Thanks
for joining us. Good look on your best tonight. Take
care