Speaker 1: I hope you survived while I was gone.
Speaker 2: Yeah, there were many tears, but we didn't make you.
Speaker 3: Ask not what your country can do for you, ask
what you can do for your country. Mister gorbachaw tear
down this wall.
Speaker 1: It's the Ricochet Podcast with General C. W. Cook and
Stephen Hayward James Lylyx. Today we talked to Eli Lake
about what else the Mideast? So let's have ourselves a
PODCASTA Yakobar.
Speaker 4: INSTI I, Ram's got a lot of trouble and they
want to negotiate. And I said, why didn't you negotiate
with me before all this death and destruction? Why didn't
you nego I said to the paper, why didn't you
negotiate with me two weeks ago?
Speaker 1: Welcome everybody. This is the Ricochet Podcast, number say one
hundred and forty six or seven hundred and forty three
for me, James lilas your sort of host, because I've
been gone for a couple of weeks, swanning about Europe
and guess what, here's the good news. I'm not going
to tell you a single thing about it, because who cares.
What we do care is that we have Stephen Hayward
with us who might be in some exciting locale he
could drop a few words about, and Charles C. Cook
will be around in a bit. We don't know what's
holding him up. The possible speculation was that he's checked
himself into the er because he's having yet another embolism
and or aneurism about the TikTok law. But we'll get
to that when we get to that. Eli Lake will
could be coming on a little bit later. This could
actually be called perhaps the Overtaken by Events podcast, because
you never know what's going to happen in the next
twenty four forty eight seventy two is a fluid world
more than ever. But Steven, hello, where are you?
Speaker 3: I am still, as you might put it, flouncing around
Ireland for a few more days. Then I'll be back
and I'll be quiet about it.
Speaker 1: How are you fight? Well, I'm just going to ask
this because I know the travelogs and can sometimes just
bore the absolute living pith out of everybody. But how
are you Are you finding Ireland to be congruent with
some of the reports that we get over here, because
you know, I was just in Italy and England and
if you listen sometimes to people fulminating on the internet,
you would find that both of these civilizations were incomplete
and utter collapse. And of course that's not what you see.
Is Ireland going through the sort of the social convulsions
that we see from time to time popping up in
the tweets?
Speaker 3: Well, I don't think so. But it's hard as a
tourist to really know what's going on. I'll just give
you two data points. One the Irish Examiner newspaper which
I picked up. They actually have old fashioned tabloids and
broadsheet newspapers, the old fashion kind, right.
Speaker 1: Don't you love them? Yeah?
Speaker 5: I know.
Speaker 3: But there's a lead story in the Irish Examiner yesterday
that said far right interests are organizing online, which is
strange since they don't have a political party, you know,
so they're just as clueless as our reporters about how
these things work. And then there will be tomorrow in
Dublin a major protest. It sounds like it's populous inflected
complaints against current policies. I don't know, it's a little vague.
I'm going to try and turn up for it because
I'll be back in Dublin and I'll let you know
if it's interesting as it might be, But I'm out
in the countryside, and the countryside, of course, is glorious
and green and fun. And the driving on the left
side is a challenge, except when the road is so
narrow that there is no left.
Speaker 5: Or right side.
Speaker 1: So there's that, don't you love that? The one lane
with a curve and the bushes that are high and
you can't see anybody coming, And you wonder, how does
this country survive without at least at four hundred and
seventy six head on collisions per day? I do, yeah, No.
I had a similar disconnected experience from the news in
which you go over there expecting the country in turmoil,
and then find yourself gavating around the maze in a
baronial estate somewhere. It's just don't you love it? But
back here America scur metty scurmetti, which actually sounds like
it should be an odds indie metal band or something
like that. Six' three, victory which are summer, saying is
a victory for ten and as these children others are, saying,
well you can. EXPECT a majority opinion wrote that The
Laws committee is subject to rational basis. Review what's that
it seems like these are three things that are absent
in our world. Today But, steven why don't you walk
people through?
Speaker 3: This well you want me, To, WELL i tend to
Let charles do it because he's probably read more of
it THAN i. Have i'll just say this about rational basis.
Review you could say a. LOT i don't want, to
but the rational basis, said essentially for decades, now if
there's some reason the legislature thinks a law will end
harm to some group or some person or provide a,
benefit then we the judiciary will defer to. It Justice
scalia used to call it the babbling idiots, tests because he,
said any legislature that can't come up with some rationale
for why what they're doing is good for the, world
it's clearly. Incompetent so and the courts have been way
too deferential and rational.
Speaker 5: Basis BUT i.
Speaker 3: Do think the concurring opinions from other conservative justice as
are in this case more important and more. Significant but
Here i'll kick it over To. Trump, charles by the,
way glad to see, you and we were going to
do a welfare check on. You worry that you might
be you, know in the emergency room because Of trump's
las TikTok postponeman no.
Speaker 2: NO i was dealing with a severe crisis at my,
house which was that there was a dead wasp in
the pool and children horrified by. This apparently only a
grown up could pick up the pool scoop and get
rid of the dead. Wasps that's Why i'm one minute. Late,
well if you've won dead, WASP i suggest there are
more wasps. ABOUT i saw a drone taking out a
wasp nest the other day on the. Internet was, very
very ingenious because it's you, know what can't they? DO
i love killing. Wasps i'm an absolute saciopath when it
comes to killing.
Speaker 1: Wasps, well they deserve. Killing as they used to, say
the bad guys in The Old, west your. Honor he deserved,
it he earned. It so we have been talking about
screwmty and we presume that you've read the, law that
you've read the, decision and you have thoughts upon. IT
a hungry nation shurns its ears to.
Speaker 2: You, well the, reason As stephen, plied that rational basis
review matters is that it is in essence the idea
that a legislature gets to, legislate which is to say
that any law that can't pass rational basis review must be.
Preposterous it must say something, like all of the people
In florida's where purple socks on A thursday because the
governor's name Is. Steve at that point a legislature might,
say but beyond, that as long as it represents the
will of the people and it can be coherently, explained it. Passes,
now that is of course how most laws are. Judged
but in this, case THE aclu wanted The Supreme court
to rule That tennessee's law was not subject to rational basis,
review but required a higher standard that could not be
med and was therefore liable to be struck down on
the grounds that in this case it violated The Equal
protection clause of The Fourteenth. Amendment past in eighteen sixty,
eight The Supreme court, said, no it doesn't violate The
Equal protection clause of The Fourteenth. Amendment and there were
really two reasons given for this across the majority. Opinions
one is quite complicated because it revolves around the question
of what a trans person is and whether or not
a transperson is going to in the equal protection clauses
protections of people who are of a particular type being
treated differently than people of another, type and that was
The roberts opinion, saying, no this doesn't. Count and then
you had a separate opinion from our concurrence From Amy Cony,
barrett who, said you know, what trans people actually aren't
a protective group in the first, place so it doesn't
matter whether or not the pretzel logic that was used
by THE acou, obtains because even if it, did trans
people cannot by definition be part of the sort of
groups that we traditionally considered having mutable characteristics and therefore
be protected by the Fourteenth. Amendment and then you Had
kagan's opinion in The, descent WHICH i think is an
odd one for the purposes of this, discussion because Although kagan,
dissented she implicitly acknowledged That tennessee's law would have survived
the standard of review that she.
Speaker 1: Wanted she just.
Speaker 2: Thought that it was liable to be looked at by
the court in a different way than rational basis. Reviewer
but she basically, said, look this lord, stands so it
was really seven too in the law's. Favor and then
you have the dissents From sotomayo And jackson that to
sum it up in legal terms just sort of went.
Speaker 6: And left it.
Speaker 2: There so it's.
Speaker 1: Hard, yeah it is hard to argue the immutable characteristics
aspect in this, case is it?
Speaker 6: Not when they're.
Speaker 1: Talking when they're talking about the definition seems to be
the very mutability of them and the subjective view of
what these attributes.
Speaker 2: Are, yeah but the important thing to say here conclusion
is that the case that was brought by The score
was really really weak and frivolous even and that this
is set back this legal argument for quite a long.
Time all the, press of, course has focused on it
will set back the political agenda of the, transmittent but
that's not what the court was being asked to. Consider
the legal precedent that was set here is really bad
for those who want to argue preposterously that The Fourteenth
amendment prevents states from passing laws that have anything to
do with trans. People AND i don't know What steve
thinks of, this but the COMPARISON i saw some drawers With.
Gluxburg gluxburg was A Supreme court decision in which the
plaintiffs argued that The Fourteenth amendment prohibited states from banning assisted,
suicide and The Supreme court, Said i'm not even SURE
i agree with this, opinion BECAUSE i think the whole
edifice on which it is built. Nonsense but The Supreme court, said, no,
no the only exceptions to the substantive due process doctrine
of those that were really built into our nation's history and.
Speaker 1: Tradition and.
Speaker 2: As a, result they lost that. Case but they've also
lost a lot of subsequent cases because of that. Standard
and so the, argument SO i understand it, here is
the acou blew this because they allowed The Supreme court
to set a rule in motion that is going to
halt them for decades to.
Speaker 3: Come, well there's a lot of recriminations happening right now
on the. Left and maybe you picked up on This
charles that long article a couple of days ago in
The New York times By Nick, confessatore who's a pretty
left leaning but very good.
Speaker 5: Journalist in the ordinary sense of doing real.
Speaker 3: Reporting and what his article reveals indirectly in place it
has been more directly in, others is that a lot
of people thought this was a comic caze mission by THE,
aclu and why did they bring this? Case what a
terrible idea it was to bring this. Case we knew
we were going to lose and set back the. Cause
and one of the, Sentences i'll share it with. You
one of the sentences in the article was THE lgbt
MOVEMENT lbgtq movement drove itself toward a cliff and took
The Democratic party with. It AND i think by the
Way professtoi's words left out where some believe this to be, true,
well that's a euphemism for but there's a lot of
people who really ad right now at THE. Aclu and
there's another great quote in, it very, short quoting a law. Professor,
quote this case exposes a lot of ethical problems in
the practice of. Medicine end. QUOTE a law professor with
expertise in sex discrimination law told, me speaking on the
condition of anonymity for fear of blowback from students and. Colleagues,
well that's pretty good confirmation that this whole movement is
inside a bubble that will.
Speaker 5: Brook no dissent and no.
Speaker 3: Criticism another surprised that a right Leaning Supreme court, says,
no we're done doing the suspect class or protected class.
Classifications we're done using the equal protection clause for any
preferred liberal clause or client or victim group that we
want to. Enshrine and, Finally thomas's concurrence just puts a
little ball on, it, saying and by the, way we're
not going to refer to experts who disgraced themselves in
the last few, years and that that's a nice also.
Rejection The Supreme court's no longer than a nod when
the experts say something that we know is.
Speaker 5: Nonsense you.
Speaker 2: Know the other reason this is so, Important, james is
usually when these cases have brought the claimers of substantive due,
process which is in my view completely nonsense reading of
the Fourteenth amendment that has been used for seventy years
by progressives to get the courts to strike down laws
that they just don't. LIKE i Know steve will agree with,
me but he, said you, know conservative, court conservative, opinion conservative,
Justices but really this case was. Crazy, yes it wasn't
even a question of conservative or, progressive or originalist or non,
originalist or the normal ideological cleavages that we. Observe it
was just. Crazy it was just about and the fact
that he got two. Votes i've still depressing as somebody
who believes that the law is a thing rather than
just an expression of.
Speaker 1: Power, well it may have gotten two, votes because that's
what right, people right thinking people would. Do the people
who are on the wrong side of, history who do
not want to be, kind who have old fashioned ideas
of sex and, agenda are the ones who are going to,
say of, course this is an easy. Decision but the
enlightened people who see a new world out there and
seek to burn it into, existence of, Course i'm going to, say,
no a lot doesn't. Matter what matters, is as our
lieutenant governor here In minnesota, said is to protect trans.
Kids and she had that on A t shirt which
was festooned with pictures of. KNIVES i never could figure
out what lieutenant was trying to tell. Us we should
actually get stabby if somebody says that a fourteen year
old should be chemically. Castrated but that just shows how
old TIME i. Am it's time to turn away from
this particular matter to something of international import given that you,
KNOW i don't know if you guys know this, meme
but there's something on the on the. INTERNET X it's
a glowering figure, frowning poorly drawn in the. Phrases nothing, ever.
Happens and that, is whenever we get close to what
seems to be the definitive thing that's going to do that,
thing it doesn't. Happen whenever we get about ready to
seemingly solve this long, standing festering, problem to pull out the,
splinters set the, bone nothing ever. Happens, well something's happening,
now and something continues to, Happen and who better to
spoke speak about it then old Friend Eli Lake, eli, Welcome.
Speaker 6: Hey thanks for having.
Speaker 1: Me so something's. Happening we don't know quite what it is,
yet SO i think we're all up to speed on
what has Happened that The iranian missile defense has BEEN
i wouldn't say completely, neutralized but given that THE idf
has control of the sky's over you're on it for protracted.
Period it sounds like vidrialization might be the. Word missile
launchers galore being taken out oftentimes by, drones oftentimes by
drones that are coming from basis Inside iran that was
set up by the MASSADE i think in nineteen eighty
one or. SOMETHING i, mean it's just the complexity of this,
organization of this, attempt of this fight of this war is.
Astonishing so where do we. Start do we start with
exactly how astonishing it, was and or do we start
with what is happening now and seems likely to be happening,
Soon because we would hate at the end of all
this to say nothing really.
Speaker 6: Happened oh something's. HAPPENED i would say this is the
fo phase of the. Faffo you could, see you. KNOW i,
MEAN i don't think The israelis would Leave iran without
taking care of The fodoho facility and what they consider
they have a. Right, remember they have a, blueprint they
have a road map to the Entire iranian nuclear program
because they stole the archives in twenty eighteen, now and
they have quite obviously the regime wired for. Sound so
at this POINT i just think they HAVE i think
it's more than just air. SUPERIORITY i think they have
a kind OF i don't no one's omnipotent except For,
god but they have a kind of. Level they have
a degree of specific. INTELLIGENCE i think with the, regime
particularly the nuclear, stuff that they know where things. Are
AND i think the most important thing that we have
to be watching. Now i'm not worried that they're not
going to take care of. IT i think that we
have to worry about if there's a sudden regime collapse
and there's, anarchy who's going to secure nuclear materials that
they haven't secured. Yet that's my number one. Worry and
THEN i, MEAN i think we have to look at
this as the beginning of the end of the regime
and WHAT i would like to. See and unfortunately The
United states really blinded ourselves in the beginning of The
trump administration when we cut all THESE anid. PROGRAMS i
think we talked about last, time The National dawmage for.
DEMOCRACY i would like to see sort of there is
a real opportunity to have a transition to. Democracy it's
not going to happen. Overnight it's not like the end
of a movie where everybody rises up because and tears
down the statues Of, Comani but there is an. Opportunity
The iranian people hate their, regime but they're battered and
beaten because of the lethal violence that The intelligence, ministry
The basiegi militias has basically like identified anyone who was
the leader of the last, one The Women Life, freedom
and either tortured them in, jail murdered, them exiled. Them
but there is still a network In, iran AND i
just think that you have to be able to give
that a little bit of. Time i'm not talking about a.
YEAR i think they could probably get it together in
a few, months and then that's The The iranians have
to be the authors of their own transition to. Democracy
BUT i think it could be. Close it just takes
a little bit of. Time and that's the, alternative by the,
way to a really, unstable potential subl, war Replacing commina
with you, know an even, worse more extreme kind of.
Tyrant if you want to avoid those, scenarios you have
to work with The iranian. People and the good news
is The iranian people have shown that they're, ready but
they're not going to rise up in the middle of
a bombing.
Speaker 1: Campaign we'll get to the democracy question in just a,
second but YET i want to start go back to
photo which you at this. Point at this, POINT i
expect The israelis to announce THAT aid a tunneling land
submarine has actually taken it.
Speaker 6: Out, yeah, exactly something we haven't even turned up.
Speaker 1: Yet but if The United states does get, involved because
it takes SOME us sized planes to drop the ordinance
that is. Needed we hear the bunker, Busters i'm not
sure exactly what when they talk about moabs and some
of the days cutters and the rest of those that
seem like fuel air explosives that don't really get down
and penetrate to the scalp as you're hit and shoulder
shampoo would. Do if THE us does get, involved then
there seems to be preparation that suggests that evacuating some
exposed aircraft that air at, bases tightening of, this we've got,
more we've got more assets of you, know sailing into the.
Region do you think that our involvement would be limited to,
saying all, right we'll get one of the you, know
we'll we'll send A b. Two we'll send a, big
big big thing over and drop a big big.
Speaker 6: Thing, well there would be ports On israeli television that
THE b twos have landed In.
Speaker 1: Israel, YEAH i saw, That and that doesn't make. Sense you.
Don't you don't have to land them. There they can
fly a long way.
Speaker 6: Unless The israelis will fly. Them and maybe it's possible
that is there has been a secret program for The
israelis to train on, them and they know how there's
a lot of surprises and things that we don't know right,
now so maybe it'll uh.
Speaker 1: Yeah i'm not sure that qualifies as plausible. Deniability you,
know we gave to.
Speaker 6: The, mark BUT i mean the plausible deniability, listen in
The United states is going to be. Blamed the reason
that The iranians haven't hit An iranian An american position
at this point is BECAUSE i think they you, know
the warnings have been pretty clear From trump and everybody
else that if they did, that that's you're, finished that's
it for. You you. Know this is by the, WAY i,
mean this is a this is a real opportunity to
reset what was a kind of you, know the feckless
non proliferation diplomacy when we're dealing with potentially other. Rogues
this is finally a consequence for The iranians after twenty five,
years and you, know it's not just going to mean
more and more. Sanctions it's it's there there at some,
point it's going to be a kinetic. CONSEQUENCE i think
that's a good thing for you, know future dirtbagtators who
might want to go nuclear To.
Speaker 1: Mae, yeah you got twenty five on board years twenty
five years of shouting death To america before you, know, yeah,
all DO i have to come back there and turn
the car?
Speaker 3: AROUND i, mean, right, Yeah, eli It's Steve hayward actually
over In ireland at the, moment trying to keep up with.
Things it does seem to me THERE'S i don't. KNOW
i think maybe there's a possibility that there's some good
strategy underway at the, Moment and it seems to me
there are three possibilities. Here one Is trump, Says, okay
we're Gonna i'm going to wait two. Weeks that's the
latest News i've seen before making a.
Speaker 5: Decision. Now in the, Meantime israel continues.
Speaker 3: To Degrade, iran attack its leaders as complete command of
the skies and leaving four to Doh Fordaw, however you
say it alone because they lack the, capability they lack
the bumper, busters or they lacked the delivery. VEHICLES i
kind of think Maybe israel's got some big bombs of their,
own but they don't have the big planes to deliver.
Speaker 1: Them.
Speaker 3: Okay so so if there were at a collapse of the,
regime set aside from the moment your point that there
could be chaos and what happens to the, Material, well
maybe don't put.
Speaker 6: That that's a big that's a big thing we want
to not.
Speaker 5: See, yeah.
Speaker 3: Exactly on the other, hand you know what we might
see is you don't have to take OUT fordao because
the regime will collapse and they'll agree to allow WHO
i don't, know the an international body to come in
and take command of the site and move everything out or.
Speaker 5: Whatever that's one, possibility or.
Speaker 6: Another possibility is that they allow for international inspectors to Dismantle. Foordah,
yeah exactly, Right, yes they end it, all and then
you have a, weakened humiliated. Regime that is almost even
THOUGH i have to tell YOU i have been covering
The Iranian democratic opposition now for twenty five, years AND
i loathe this regime AND i you, KNOW i just
feel they're so close to collapse and it's and that's
a that's a good. Thing, HOWEVER i think it's almost
a better scenario if they agree to this kind of
humiliating deal for, them which is no, enrichment no, program
you lose, it, nothing and THAT i think will leave
in place a kind of WEAKENED i, mean at that,
Point kameny's got threats on all. Sides you know What i'm,
Saying there's gonna be. Hardliners, also keep in, mind this
is a religious fanatic regime and it is based on
the kind of assumption That god is with. Them well guess.
What it doesn't look Like allah loves you right. Now in,
fact looks Like he doesn't like you very much at.
All and THAT i think has a profound kind of
effect among for a regime that is based on this
kind of almost like divine, prophecy and that that that that's.
All That's it's similar to you, know when The communists
face a setback and their whole and their whole ideology
is like this is the direction of history and so,
Forth maybe it, isn't and that you, know introduces all
kinds of. Problems and you add to that the idea
that they are really, HATED i mean hated by Most.
Iranians and that so even if you're like A kerlonel
in the you, know revolutionary guardcore ride control forces or
something like, that you probably you sew a family and
your kids probably are hearing in school about other people
who've been. Tortured that's a tough position to be. In
are you going to. Fire are you going to follow
the orders and fire on those. Demonstrators that's what we've
got to be looking. At and, unfortunately you, know in
a kind of spasm of you, know reckless and heedless
actions in the beginning of this, administration we've kind of
blinded ourselves in that, regard and that we cut all these.
Programs now some of them are still going. On The
National damage For democracy has figured out a way to
kind of keep some of them, going and they move
money here and. There but we would have been a
much better position had The doge knife not come for those.
Speaker 3: Things, WELL i, MEAN i agree with you that a
potential downside of the SCENARIO i started layout is uh.
Is in other, words if you had a week in
regime that did agree to give up their, nukes they
would still be very, dangerous and they would reconstruct and
they would do you, know other forms.
Speaker 5: They would try to.
Speaker 6: RECONSTRUCT i actually think that would be a great. Scenario
they would be, WEAKLY i think THEY i think it
would be a great scenario because they would be weakened,
well AND i think it would BE i think at
that point if that you would be buying a little
bit of time for The democratic opposition to get their act.
Speaker 3: Together BUT i think you can see why that scenario
would appeal To, trump who is, WILLING i think is
willing to do, it but really would prefer not.
Speaker 7: To.
Speaker 3: Uh and so that's WHY i think this sort of
two week. Play and, Meanwhile israel will do what it can,
do which is a. Lot AND i think you can
see what that scenario makes some sense in the that's
what they're, thinking that's their. Strategy and, yeah And i'm,
well we talked about this last time you're.
Speaker 5: On I'M i, MEAN i Remember.
Speaker 3: Penn campbell and all all the origins of ANY d
back in the early in mid eighties Under. Reagan I'M i,
think like some my, opinion and we talked about this,
before so we don't have to redo this is THAT
i think it has not been as good as it
was back in those days and has decayed some for various.
Speaker 5: Reasons AND i don't.
Speaker 6: Know even if you grant all that there were programs
In iran for things like internet to fight internet, censorship
to get alternative to getting on the, internet, right there
were things In iran that were you, know, again these
were small bore programs that The iranians themselves took great
risk to sort of be part, of but that would
at least provide a channel to policy bakers right now
who could, Say, okay this is where the state of
The iranian opposition, is this is you, know what they
need at this. Point and to, me it's like it's.
Situational it's, like, yeah you're you're placing a ton of
bets all over the you, know all over a bunch
of authoritarian, regimes but now is the time when you
really need. It and my point is, that, like all, right,
FINE i, mean AND i agree with, you some of
it got caught up with a lot of kind of
ngo woo woo and everything like, that but there was
a way to use a scalpel and spend instead of a.
Speaker 3: Sledgehammer, yeah all, right let me switch gears real quick
with one last question for, you and then on a
handoff To. CHARLIE i have been encouraged by seeing some
reaction from people in the sort of THE maga, world
in The maga. Orbit, Sure and so you, Know Tucker
carlson has been so. Marginalized Even trunk talked about Nutty Tucker, Carlson,
Right kookie whatever said Cookie. Nutty you may not have seen,
it but you, Know Paul, gottfried who's an old certified
neo con, hater, said AND i think a very important
article In chronicles, magazine which is very much you, Know
i'm maybe not, isolationists but very non interventionist and so.
Forth he, said you, know sometimes the neocons are, right
AND i, think, uh this is.
Speaker 5: This is one of those.
Speaker 3: Times, YEAH i thought that was QUITE i, mean you,
know he's a controversial, guy BUT i think he's carry some.
Weight Brian kennedy in The Clarmont institute Of orbit has
said something even, stronger.
Speaker 5: And SO i, MEAN i think that the liberal, media.
Speaker 3: ESPECIALLY i, think is trying to, say, OH maga is,
divided and it's true That trump has his own peculiar,
curiosities BUT i think that's not.
Speaker 5: TRUE i think, that.
Speaker 3: You, know friends Of israel ought to be encouraged by
the fact that so many people in THE maga base
are declaring themselves on the side Of israel and the
side Of america getting involved On israel's.
Speaker 6: Side i'm not. Surprised. GOOD i, mean it's, like you,
KNOW i, mean The iyatolas have been an enemy of
The United states since nineteen seventy, nine Most americans have
some memory of them either blowing up our soldiers In
iraq or taking our diplomat's, hostage or screaming death To
america or doing any number of. Things and it's, like you,
know don't overthink, it. Guys, also IF i was In maga, world,
OKAY i would be a little worried IF i was,
saying like if my allies included like you, know Ilhan,
omar LIKE i don't, Know like you, know it's Like Matt,
Gates Marjorie Taylor. Green there's a theory IN nba called
The ewing, theory which is That Patrick ewing at the
end of his, career who was obviously a great center
for The New York, knicks but at the end of
his career was kind of a. Liability and when he
left The, knicks The knicks got. Better SO i look at,
it Like TUCKER. Mtg you, Know Matt, gates That's ewing
theory to, Me, LIKE i think the team just got,
stronger you. KNOW i, mean So i'm agreeing with. You
i'm encouraged by all.
Speaker 7: That.
Speaker 6: Charlie, hello all, right let's talk About Yoko Ono.
Speaker 1: No i'd have to do my, impersonation and, REALLY i
don't want to shatter the glass in this little Room i'm.
Speaker 2: IN i THINK i did an impascination WHEN i represented
the descents In scramatti earlier Of. Yoko and so forget
the intramural fight WITHIN. Maga just from An american citizen,
perspective here's a devil's advocate position THAT i want you to.
Speaker 6: Address, Yeah.
Speaker 2: Iran is, bad but we have a terrible recent memory
of interfering in The Middle. East we got involved In
iraq and the aims. Metastasized you. YOURSELF i just talked
about maybe the end of the. Regime, yeah it didn't
work out so well last. Time israel has been in
charge of this process from the. Beginning why would we get?
Involved why does it matter To? America, yeah we Like,
israel but they seem to be doing fine without. Us
what would possibly convince us at this point to get
in Another Middle eastern? War BECAUSE i know there is
THE maga, argument but a lot of that's quite silly
in that it is inextricably linked To trump and people
maneuvering Around. Trump but a lot of people don't do.
That the vast majority Of americans don't do. That but
the view THAT i just adam rated is Something i've
heard from other people who aren't conservative or progressive or particularly.
Political they're just baffled by what is in it For?
America Qua.
Speaker 6: America, Okay, well it's a good, question AND i would
answer it in a few. Ways first of, all we
already are. Involved we are sharing, intelligence Although israel has
far better intelligence than we, do but we are helping
in the, regard and we're also helping shoot down. Missiles
we're Arming israel with the interceptors they, need which we're
running out. OF i would say that's a pretty big.
Deal the second point here is that you, know regime,
change nation building wars are quagmires and they're no. Good
but being on the winning side of a war is.
Good and this doesn't look like it's going to become
a regime change quagmire war starting primarily because the president
Is Donald. Trump so this is a situation where you
have a president who will be getting briefings at some.
Point perhaps let's just play. Out maybe it's a bad.
Scenario common a, topples there's anarchy in the, streets he's getting, briefings,
like oh my, god you, Know iranians are going to
run out of fuel in six. Days we have to do.
Something AND i think he's going to, say don't, care
not my. Problem and that's just sort of built in With.
Trump he's not going to do any nation building and
and THAT i think you don't even, like you, know
it's not, like, oh take my word for, it but
LIKE i think it's. True he's just not going to do,
it especially now in his second term when he's really
feeling himself and he kind of understands the powers of the.
Presidency but the second thing is, this it is in
our interest in the following, sense The United states since
the dawn of the atomic, era really after The soviets
stole our secrets and then tested so we had two nuclear,
powers The United states has been Interested republican democratic presidents
in limiting the number of countries that have nuclear. Weapons
If iran goes, nuclear and if for some Reason israel
can't fully take out the full program and it needs
The United states to drop these bunker buster massive ordinance penetrator,
bombs well if that's the, case then it's so much
better if you really eliminate the prospect Of iran getting
a nuke for the simple reason that it means The,
Turkey Saudi, Arabia egypt won't get a nuke and you
won't have the kind of proliferation cascade nightmare that was
very possible before under the old, world under the old
reality of just a week, ago When iran was right
up to the precipice of going nuclear because it had
built up this huge industrial nuclear industry that Sadly obama's
a very bad deal allowed The iranians to. Keep and
so now you have you can reset the. Clock and
it also sends this great message to all of the
other rogues that are watching that if you try to
go the route Of North, korea it's not gonna work
out for. You that's not the best. Scenario so up
UNTIL i Guess, thursday Last, thursday up until a week,
ago the logic of a tyrant, WAS i better get,
nukes because you know. What kadafi didn't have nukes and
he got in he lost his. Regime saddam didn't have
nukes and he got. INVADED i better have nukes BECAUSE i.
Better that's my insurance. Policy that's why the way my
regime survives now you've introduced another. Scenario if you push
for nukes and you decide that you're going to be
the leading state sponsor of terrorism and you're going to
fund the group that Does october, seventh well then maybe
the fact that you're going after your nukes it's going
to be a reason why you your regime will not.
Survive and that's a good lesson for. Everybody and nobody
wants more nuclear. Powers so that's the other thing as. Well,
SO i, MEAN i think you raise a really good.
Point why should we get involved in another war in
The Middle? East not as important to, us but if
you want to, know, like what's the main reason we
keep getting drawn back into The Middle, east It's. Iran
SO i JUST i just did a conversation slash debate
With Dan, caldwell who has recently left the, administration and
he made this whole point, about, well what about the,
Stability And i'm, like the driver of instability in The
Middle east Is. Iran if you either Defang iran and
get enforced that regime to rethink its, behavior or you
cause a change in that, regime then you're removing the
primary kind of driver of. Instability so that's the other, thing.
Speaker 3: Well you, know it seems to IF i could jump
In charlie for a, minute it does seemed to me
that if you take a, long like fifty year story arc,
here there's one THING i haven't heard people talk. About
so you, know When iran fell in nineteen seventy, nine
it removed a strategic bastion for The west against The
Soviet union and The Soviet union that kind. OF i,
mean they were quietly trying to foment revolution, there but
they didn't directly, intervene Unlike afghanistan a year. Later and
it seems to me that if that were now, reversed
if you had An iranian regime that was at least
neutral or maybe even Pro western in some, ways it
changes the equation With. China that's WHY i think this
is beyond just The Middle, east which you laid out very.
Speaker 5: WELL i think this is as global geopolitical.
Speaker 6: Significance oh, YEAH i, MEAN i just all of. That
and the thing, IS i think it was the statement
Of Chancellor mertz Of. Germany israel's doing that has done
the dirty, work the hardest, part which you, know the
riskiest part of this is what was taking care Of
they're taking out the air defense. Systems they're going after
the launchers and the ballistic. Missiles at this, POINT i would,
say you, KNOW i, Mean iran is in a it's
such a precarious position for them that if The United
states kind of added on in the last, minute it
might it would send a great message and they would
be on the winning.
Speaker 1: Side what About, china though we just brought that. In
Tucker carlson told us That iran had the fearsome bricks
at its. Back there hasn't seemed to be any general
mobilization there so. Far But iran sells a lot of
its petroleum products To, china and we were Just china
come out at the end of. It let's presume that
the Ir indian government falls and that's something inimicable To
chinese interest is, installed or at least indifferent to, them more.
Neutral how Does china look after all of? This china
looks sort of as if The west has more vitality
and nerve and backbone and fire than may have been.
Speaker 6: Thought, ALSO i think if You're china and you're looking
at it, like, well this source of. Instability by the,
way a Nuclear iran isn't good For china is, gone
and they're still gonna have, oil and whatever comes, next
they'll sell it to, us and it'll probably be much
easier because it won't be under all these sanctions From china's,
perspective if they're just interested in the, oil which clearly they.
Are by the, way what's fascinating to me is the
axis of dirt, bags or this axis of Resistance North, Korea,
Russia iran And. China they all hate each. Other they're
just in it because they're you, know aggressive authoritarians that
kind of menace the democratic, world and that's what they
have in. Common so you, KNOW i would say that's
one of the most humiliating. Things by the, way the
most humiliating thing is that the battered remnant Of hesbelah
put out a statement, saying we wish you the best of,
luck but we can't Be now's not the right, time you,
Know like that's amazing to. Me hesbelah would not exist
had it not been for The Islamic republic Of. Iran
they're not even getting. Involved they're totally isolated. Alone the
only allies they see to have are the tent cos
players On Western european And american, campuses and you, KNOW
i don't Know Darryl cooper and a few of the alt,
right you, Know World war two revisionist style or. Historians
nobody else is coming to their. Aid The, russians which
you know we're Using iranian, drones they're not doing. Anything
THE Un Security council is not like stopping and having
a serious talk about. Anything everybody just seems like they're
all good with, it you know WHAT i. Mean it's,
LIKE i, mean it's.
Speaker 1: Amazing it is interesting that we haven't had the usual
shots in the television of THE un building with some
sonorous talk about how they're meeting in an emergency session
and declaring, THIS i.
Speaker 6: Mean people time for de. Escalation nobody's doing anything about.
It it's just.
Speaker 2: INCREDIBLE i have a, Second, Yeah Devil's advocate. Questions so
you said that the regime is. Awful OBVIOUSLY i, agree
and the people In iran don't like, it WHICH i
assume to be, true although it's always difficult to.
Speaker 6: Tell, well CAN i stop you right, There. Charlie five
times since twenty seventeen we have seen national, uprisings So
i'm basing it on that pattern every few, years and
by the way against horrific. REPRESSION i mean some of
the things that were done against The. Maskima the latest
one called the Women Life freedom after this Poor kurdish
woman was, murdered you, know for not wearing her. Hijab,
correctly there were girls' schools In iran that were under
poison gas attack literally in the, school and they came.
Home they didn't, die but they were very. Sick and
that was what they, well that's what this regime was
willing to do to stop those. Demonstrations and yet my
view is that as bad as it, is and they you,
know they the torture and everything, else nonetheless they managed
to get these demonstrations, going you, know every couple of. Years,
so but that's WHAT i. Say they hate.
Speaker 2: THAT i, Agree i'm with you on, this but The
Devil's advocate position is, yes and despite all of those,
uprisings they're still.
Speaker 1: There.
Speaker 2: Yeah so the QUESTION i have is The israelis have
taken out a good number of the leaders Of, iran
AND i think the rumor That kamone is dead is probably,
false but it's not beyond the realm of possibility that
that would. Happen, yeah why are we so sure that
this would lead to a Better. Iran isn't there a
fear that it would lead to a more Extreme? Iran
those positions get filled with people who are even more
crazy than the ones who are in.
Speaker 6: Them, now, well, okay so let me address it in two.
Parts there is no guarantee you roll the iron dice of.
War there's no guarantee it, could of course go very.
BADLY i would argue that the risks of Allowing iran
to inch ever closer to a nuke were less tolerable
than the risks involved in this military. Action and THAT'S
i think that's the honest, position because we have to be.
Realistic we can't, say, oh, no, no, no, no it'll be. Great,
okay SO i agree with, You, yes there there it
could in some. WAYS i suppose it could get. Worse
but you have to look at this, like AS i
sort of, said this factor of, like this is a
regime that's built on the idea that they're all of
their momentum is based on the fact that they're favored By. Allah,
yeah and when you know, so, yeah it's possible that
there's going to be more. Fanatics and they say this
is just another even greater, test but most rational people
will look at things and, saying you, know maybe maybe
we got this one. Wrong and then you add to,
that which Is i'm saying that there we can't know,
this but the dynamic even like all the regime elites
still live In, iran and all of the regime elites
are going to be touched by the enmity that Most
iranians feel for the. Regime and then you add to
this this massive. Humiliation and it's a regime that is
based on the sense of like that they're, omnipotent that they're,
invincible That god is behind, them that has been, that
that is that that myth has been. Punctured so, YEAH
i don't think that's going to be very good in
terms of the. Stability AND i don't see how that's
going to favor someone who's even more. Extreme of course it's,
possible BUT i don't see how that extremist is going
to be able to sort of have it is going
to be able to get themselves out of the legitimation
crisis that they have right now already that was.
Speaker 1: Before only time will, tell he, said, Sonorously BUT eli
will leave.
Speaker 6: You before we. Go CAN i make a, Request.
Speaker 1: WELL i was going to make a request of you,
first you go, first, ENOUGH i will usually you're wearing
a BAND t. Shirt you're not wearing a band t.
Shirt why have you foresworn rock? Music force it for?
Speaker 6: This, no, no, NO i Just i'm going on other
shows AND's SO i decided to classify with a little
little cost polo here for.
Speaker 1: You what is your? Request it can be absolutely anything of,
us unless, you of course you.
Speaker 6: Wont. Okay so my Podcast Breaking, history we've been doing
some going to, stuff but my latest one is On WILLIAM.
F buckley AND i do THESE ai, songs and So
i've Given i've Given perry a link to the one On,
buckley WHICH i think you guys are. Like it's a
little outwalk country called a Thwart history yelling.
Speaker 1: Stock well we when we go, back we will we
will put, like well we will not right?
Speaker 6: Now, okay, okay fair, enough fair.
Speaker 1: Enough the guy who shows up at the wedding.
Speaker 6: Dance started at the thirty two. Mark there's a there's
a there's an there's a there's a there's an instrumental,
introduction and then you get into the lyrics AND i
THINK i think i've kind of Captured buckley if he
was you, know like Uh Waylon jennings in like nineteen seventy. One,
well it will.
Speaker 1: Be it will be our outro. Music we promise you. That,
okay you'll love, it and we we we thank you
for Reviving WILLIAM. F buckley In Humane CLONE ai.
Speaker 6: Form but the podcast is, ITSELF i, mean like you,
know it's it's a tribute To, buckley although you, KNOW
i deal with some of the some of the flaws as,
well BUT i think overall you can Tell i'm a.
Speaker 1: Fan, okay we'll hop On. Vo three and start to
do the video for that so we can actually HAVE
wfb you, know getting down with his own too and
putting on a ten gallon hat and Strong. Eli thank
you so. Much it's been as. Usual it was a,
pleasure and we hope to talk to you soon when
something else. Happens because the phase of nothing well having.
Speaker 6: And, STEVE i found out you And Michael anton our,
pals which is.
Speaker 3: Cool oh, yeah, yeah oh, yeah you're wrote terrific article about,
him by the, Way yes that was, important, RIGHT i forgot, right?
Speaker 5: Thanks, yeah all, right.
Speaker 1: All, right now we've backscratched enough, happily so and we see,
you and we advise everybody to go read everything and
listen to it that he. Does we'll have a links
in the podcast in the page At. Ricochet have a great.
Day and now before we, leave one more, topic we've
n screed. Ready we've Got. Israel the other thing that
seems to be going on nowadays is a very peculiar
contest In New York city where a gentleman who came
to buy attention first when he was doing these wonderful
little fist pumping videos for rent control because that works
just so, great is a mayoral. Candidate and they're going
to have to, decide aren't, they between the wise stewardship
of A, cuomo moderate and steady and this fellow who wants,
to you, know globalize the. Indefada but of course the
indofad is just one of those. Words it doesn't mean
what you says it, does and you know it means
kind of basically struggle or do the right thing or
the rest of. IT i expect that there will be
a lot of people who show their good progressive bona
fides by voting for him because he says all the right,
things and they will be insulated utterly and completely from
the consequences of his. Policies BUT i Think cuomo is
going to pull this. Out AND i know nothing About
New york, politics but it would seem to me that
a lot of people are going to look at this
guy and, say M. No twenty, twenty we would have
been all over. That but five years have passed and
things have, changed or have they have?
Speaker 2: They Steve, well, YEAH i Mean i'm having it.
Speaker 5: Right, Well i'm having flashbacks here to thirty years. AGO i,
mean here's the.
Speaker 3: Theme the blue cities and blue states are so far
gone that there's the.
Speaker 5: One you're saying That Andrew cuomo is your quote unquote moderate.
Hope they literally no. Hope it's just going to get.
Speaker 3: Worse cuoma might, win BUT i think the future Of
New york is clearly sliding to the. LEFT i said
it having. Flashbacks you go back thirty years To San.
Francisco they had an incumbent mayor by the name Of Frank,
jordan who's everyone's. Forgotten he'd been a former police, chief
so he sounded kind of Like juliani a little, bit
AND i don't remember now how he ran a, city
but certainly better than it is, now and he was
challenged for in reelection By Willy, brown the former speaker
by the, way one of the smartest politicians In, america
but very left and you, know very much a Machine,
democrat but a realistic. LEFTY i, mean even he has said,
that starting ten years, ago The progressives are going way
too far In San francisco and. Elsewhere BUT i will
tell people back east that the election contest Featured Frank
jordan stripping naked in the shower with two hosts of
a morning gay radio, Show it's try and curry with
the gay, vote which is obviously important In San. Francisco
AND i tell, people, oh and he was the conservative, candidate,
right And Willy brown was the other. Candidate and at
the same, Time Jerry brown was the mayor Of. Oakland
so The Bay area had a complete brown, out AS
i like to put, it Because Willy brown, won of,
course and, BOY i would Take Willy brown back in
a second In San francisco over the mayors we've had,
lately or even the governor for that, matter which you,
KNOW i grew up with Despising Willy. Brown he was
the epitome of all, evil and now he looks like
the mature elder statesman of The Democratic party In. California
and so here we are In New york and we
have this crazy left winger and we're, saying, oh, please,
Please Andrew, cuomo you've got to beat this. Guy now
there is the element of the rank choice, voting which
is one of the worst ideas, ever and who knows
how that might screw things up. Here even The New
York times finds, this Ma'am donnie that's his, name to
be too far beyond the. Pale SO i don't. Know
part of me wants to See mount Dommy, wynn just
because you, know they richly deserve the pain and. Punishment
what's that old line Of mankans democracy is the theory
that the common people know what they want and deserve
to get it good and. Hard they're going to get
it good and hard no matter who, wins Because cuomo is,
experienced but he'll still be pretty.
Speaker 1: Bad, yes but those of us who Love New york
and want the city to prosper don't want to wish.
ILL i, mean in part, yes because there's always that
idea that we get, well, well they voted for the
worst possible personnel who will put these awful policies into,
place then they'll realize the error of their. Ways but
the error of their ways never, come never consists of
a massive overhaul and re examination of their ideological. Precepts
it's always, just, well we have to find somebody who's
better at doing these ruinous. Things so that's where you're
that's where your sympathy tends to. End it's not rent
control of the. Problem we have to nationalize property and
execute the. Billionaires that'll be the thing that we. DO i, mean, so,
yeah they deserve to live with with their. Consequences but,
unfortunately the people who on whom this falls are the
people generally who can least afford it and whose lives
will not be made better for. It charles And, florida
this almost must seem like laughter fodder to, you living
in that, wild, open, mad crazy libertarian state that you.
Do but, you when it comes to the fate of
The Blue cities Of, america do you think that it's
just going to be an unending grinding cycle of one
progressive after the, other trying things that don't, work placating
the people who contribute, little and just driving the sensible
folk out of town or or is there anything that
we can point to that says, no it's not going
to be endlessly. Polarized we will bring back our cities
it is possible to.
Speaker 2: Do With juliani, here, WELL i should stop by SAYING
i do. Care i'm glad THAT i don't have to
live in those. PLACES i like the federal, system BUT
i like all Of. AMERICA i Love. CALIFORNIA i Think
california's the most beautiful. STATE i wish it would properly.
Run AND i Love New. York my wife's From New.
YORK i lived In New york for. Years it's a great.
Place WHAT i find depressing about, This james AND i
have made this speech many times on various, podcasts is
that this is a case in which the people who
are making bad decisions have in front of them all
the evidence they need to prevent them from making the bad.
DECISIONS i am actually quite tolerant of people making bad
decisions when they don't have that information or when something
new is happening in the. World we have different ways
of processing information depending on our ideological. Assumptions conservatives are
more likely to, say, OH i don't make that. Change
but in this. Case we've been through this, before and
yet it seems that nothing is now sufficient to push
the voters Of New, york but Also, chicago which is,
worse And california to fix. It and that's the bit
THAT i think is, alarming because to, me many of
the questions that are up for debate In New york
at the moment are pre political crime. Budgets it's not
that we don't have different views on, them and they're legitimate.
Views it's that they're the sort of questions that, historically
whatever other disputes we were, having voters would, say fix,
that or you don't get to make the secondary. Case
and that's what Put juliani, in and that's what Put boomberg.
In three times In New york was voted, saying, LOOK
i don't Like republicans OR i don't like independence on,
this this and, this but he does make sure that
the streets are. Safe and you saw it In california
as well When reagan was. Elected AND i just wonder
watching the example Of, chicago where they just keep voting
for the same lunacy over and over, again whether that's true,
anymore and if it isn't, TRUE i don't really not
to make of it as somebody who thinks that people
are fundamentally, rational BECAUSE.
Speaker 6: I know it's.
Speaker 1: Not it's. Not it's like the Groundhoud day movie where
every day you wake up and tear down chesters And.
SVINCE i share the confusion with. You but LIKE i,
say people are so hesitant to vote for the Awful
party because the Awful party is full of, racists, transphobes
and other people who wish ill on everybody else and
want to just simply sit, in you, know the backwoods,
somewhere pick on a banjo and maybe listen to AN
ai generated song About william Ath. Buckley that was going
to be my outro there and my queue into. It,
steven if you'd been the sort of segue observer That
rob used to. Be But i'll allow this before we,
go for you to make the point that you want to.
Speaker 3: Make, well, sorry BUT i, MEAN i think you all
have seen The some of the graphics are really. Telling
but some of the places Where trump made the largest
games were in the blue, cities in The chicago, Area New,
York Los, Angeles. California. Uh and what it suggests to
me is that there is a lot there are a
lot of people out there who are disgusted with things
who aren't. Conservative maybe they're, not they're probably in many
cases Traditional. Democrats they're often, Minorities, hispanics. Black and the
point is is that there IS i, think sentiment for something,
different and, unfortunately you, know conservatives Or republican candidates on
the urban level are just. Absent there's one thing to
Have trump as an alternative on the national or bad they're, bad,
right or there's that bad candidates and the collapse of
competition at the urban level By republicans IS i, think
really showing itself here because you don't see many.
Speaker 1: ALTERNATIVES a lot of them are bad because a lot
of people go into politics for self aggrandizement and self.
Enrichment and the way you do that is to attach
yourself to whatever institutional Ramorra Tammany hall like has attached
itself to your. City so there's, that, Right.
Speaker 2: But also you've got to blame the voters in a.
Democracy AND i Had Lannie chan on my podcast a
couple of years, ago and he told me about the
time he ran for controller In. California people said that
he would go into these public meetings debates with his,
opponent and he would, Say california has big problems with
its budget in the way that it allocates, money and
if you look at the medicaid budget relative to, this
and i'll tax revenues and, movement and people would, say,
yeah that's a great. Point i'm really worried about. This
and then his opponent would come in and say. Abortion
and there's opponent won by ten, points AND i remember
thinking that's the public's, fault like that they literally had
the choice. Right controller is not. GOVERNOR i. UNDERSTAND i
don't think it's rational in the grand scheme of, things
given where these states are. Going BUT i totally understand
somebody who has absolutely different politics THAN i do who, says,
LOOK i just don't Like republicans and their, policies and,
yeah the state's a, mess But i'm very worried that
they will pass pro life laws or loosen the gun,
restrictions or do school tour whatever it is that they care,
about and So i'm just willing to suck it. Up
but when you're talking about the role of, controller a
role that has literally nothing to do with abortion or
gun control or gay, marriage is actually just the thing
that people say they're worried about and you have an
opportunity to pick somebody who's more sensible on, it and you.
Don't that's the point of WHICH i just think you
have to take responsibility for, it. Right you can't say
all while it's because of the two party, system or you, Know.
Speaker 1: I'm abortion for some Small american flags for others and always,
twirling twirling into the. Future King codos twenty. Six, gentlemen
there's been a, pleasure and we'll convene again next week
when something will have, happened or not because there's two
weeks to, talk or, yes because something. Happened in any,
case we want everybody to go to ricochet dot com sign,
up because, yeah, yeah, yeah you can read the front,
page but the member feed is where all of the
interesting conversations begin and where you will meet a, sane generally,
civil mostly center right pretty much conversation and cohort the
links of what you've been looking for on the internet
since you plug that thing. In I'm James lilax And Stephen.
Heyward thank, you, GENERALS. C. W, cook thank you as,
well and thank everybody for, listening and we'll see you
all in the comments At ricochet for the point zero b.
Speaker 2: By get your hand out my.
Speaker 7: Pocket the money is better spend on. Groceries the dodger
ben off Rend i'd like to help my. Neighbor for
those with less than, Me i'll set aside some.
Speaker 2: Extra and call a charity that is not the comass.
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Speaker 7: There you, install keep comings out of, college regard To
god and. Listen Nick nixon did his. Homework dis asshoed.
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Speaker 1: Text what happened to the?
Speaker 7: Church what happened to our school?
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From bob to the. Dark, yes this is Tore we standing.
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YE i am for. Them universities a wallow in incign
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