Speaker 1: Good morning everybody. It's time for full Court Press. You
look at your video screen and you don't see Adam
Trigger hosting the show today. It's simply because Adam is
out doing Adam Trigger things. He's at the Drexel game
this morning, eleven am start. It happens to be a
high school invitation special, so Trigg will be there amongst
three thousand screaming high school kids. He'll be a courtside
for this game, so he'll have a good bird's eye
view of what goes on in that early game with Drexel.
I want to first introduce our special guest here today,
Jim Root from basket underreview dot com. If you guys
want to see his work, go to basket under Review,
a site that you hear Adam recommending constantly on this show.
Very informative, formerly of Three Man Weave. Maybe some of
you know him from Three Man Weave. But let me
welcome ame in. Jim. Glad to have you here today,
Glad to go over some college hoop with you for
the next sixty minute.
Speaker 2: Yeah, happy to be here tagging in for Trig. I
definitely appreciate you guys letting me jump on. As you
mentioned you have Basket on a Review, do a lot
of work there. There's the discord and the site with
that three man weave is still the podcast functions, so
if you're looking at your podcast apps, we can we
come out with episodes every Friday, but.
Speaker 3: All our writing is Basket on Review or Action Network.
Speaker 2: So just various places where you can locate us and
see us talking about gambling or just college basketball in
general because we're addicted, and we'll.
Speaker 1: Review all those spots where you can find jams work
for you at the end of the show for those
who are trying to write that down real quick, but
we'll get to it. I will say that you've instantly
made friends with me by having the Missouri Tiger background there.
My youngest son graduated Miszoo about five years ago, so
familiar with campus Como, etc. Actually still do a live
spot there each and every Friday in Como on their
big show on Fridays about five twenty. So yeah, glad
to see the Missoo flag hanging in the back. Let's
get to business here though, because that's what we're here for.
And yesterday Jim, we covered the Louisville Tennessee game, which
goes tonight Thompson Bowling Arena. But before we get into
today's card, we're interested in any thoughts you might have
on this Louisville Tennessee game side total, whatever you see.
I'll really quick tell everybody that this game opened Louisville
minus one has been moved three and a half point
moved toward Tennessee now two and a half one fifty
seven and a half year total that is kind of
stayed steady, only a one point upward movement in that regard.
But Jim, go ahead, tell us what you feel about
this Louisville Tennessee game.
Speaker 2: I am very conflicted between what my gut thinks when
I look at the game and what my numbers made
when I when I actually handicapped it. So just at
first glance, I was like, oh, Tennessee ten days off,
coming off three losses against a team that seemed to
give an all out effort against Memphis over the weekend.
I like the spot a lot for Tennessee. I made
it right around where it's at now, so I probably
would have been on the move with the early openers
and bet the home team as a dog. But where
it's sitting right now, I don't see a lot of
actual value even though, man just looking at the spot,
it does set up well for Tennessee. I think they
can kind of assert some of that physicality that they've
gotten the paint, really deep front court rotation, even with
Cade Phillips out for the season, that's going to be
a problem I think for Louisville.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 2: Can Tennessee disrupt that incredible perimeter offense that the Cardinals have.
I think that comes down to the MIKEL. Brown junior
matchup and keeping him out of the paint. That's where
Bishop Boswell hopefully comes in. He's kind of the Jimi
Mayshak of the new era for Tennessee. Not quite as
refined yet, but he is a physical defender that I
think should be the one that gets that assignment. I'd
let Gillespie be off the ball a little bit and
just let him use his physicality to keep Brown in front,
and that could short circuit level opportunities to get those
open three that's where they thrive. A total, wise, I
made this a little higher than what it is, but man,
if you made me bet the total, I would go
with the under. I think it because I sort of
like Tennessee. I think the game flow slows down. Their
defensive possession length is indicative of how they can kind
of stretch you out and make you play in the
half court versus louvill wanting to run. So I would
definitely lean towards the under, despite having it a hair
higher than where it's at right now. I just think
the way it plays out and with what I think
the game flow will be, Tennessee forces level to play
a game they don't want to play, and that's in
the half court.
Speaker 1: That seems to be the consensus that we had yesterday.
I know Adam's numbers came out very close to what
we have here, and the situation will speak loudly for
Tennessee real quick. Before we move on, I just want
to ask your opinion of a particular player I kind
of put the burden in this game, and you mentioned
his name on Jacoby Gillespie for Tennessee, a guy who
began his career at Belmont, moved on to Maryland now
here at Tennessee playing point, and when we broke down
his numbers so far this year, you see really nice
performances first five games of the year in lesser competition
and then the games that people have paid attention to,
mostly the games against higher echelon teams. Gillespie's shooting just
hasn't been there, and I just wonder he wasn't a
standout on Maryland last year. Jacoby Gillespie is turning out
to be more of a serviceable power five or sporadic
power five shooting point guard than he was at Bellmont.
At Belmont he was a star mid major level. Here,
not as much. I kind of put a lot of
emphasis on him being able to get buckets for Tennessee.
Your opinions on Jacoby Gillespie and his production here at
a higher level the last year plus.
Speaker 2: Yeah, coming back home to Tennessee, I think that was
like the big story. And when they got him, you know,
a really highly regarded transfer from the team that didn't
use its bench much. He played almost every minute at Maryland,
but was really important as part of that crab five.
But yeah, last year, over forty percent from three in
the Big Ten that that really showed up. And this
year the shooting has not quite been there. It seems
like it's because he's got a bigger offensive burden. You know,
it's him and Nate Amant really the only two guys
that produce shots for them, and so he's taken more
difficult ones, a little bit more off the bounce. Nobody's
there to set him up, and I think that's a problem,
especially when you watch his shot. It's not like a
true gunner. It's a little bit of a lower release,
it's a really high arc. I think that kind of
shot is harder to create off the bounce, and he's
having a little bit of issues with his efficiency Because
of that, Teams are able to focus on him a
little bit. We'll see how Louiville defends him, if they
rotate guys or what they do with him. But yeah,
I think he's still trying to find his way as
a top one or two offensive option, whereas at Tennis
or at Maryland they had more scorers around him and
that really helped him really quick.
Speaker 1: Guys, we're going to move on to today's games. If
you'd like to see what Adam and I had for
a breakdown and analysis of this game, go to yesterday's
Full Court Press show on YouTube TV the Wager twelve channel.
There may be a separate video cut just for that
game in particular, but if not, you can find it
at the top of the show from yesterday. Let's go
ahead and get some Big East action here. Butler at
Connecticut tonight. Interesting. Obviously, I'm a Connecticut native, pretty close
with that program as far as information and stuff go.
This is a matchup here. Butler a team under Thad
Mata that has played really well this year, Connecticut, a
team obviously one through nine that I would argue is
one of the three best one through nine rotations in
the nation right now. Dan Hurley kind of echoed that
the other day. I'm not gonna say that Dan Hurley
copies my thoughts, but Dan Hurley believes his team is
that deep and that talented at all five position. They
come in here, though, Jim really quick here. Bad against
the point spread this year. Yukon right now just two
and five against the number last seven games in my estimation.
Some of that is built on the way that they play.
They don't really play a nineties point style of basketball,
and they're generally overpriced in the market, so dogs have
been able to cover against them. Butler could be a
live dog here. As I mentioned, they've been good to
start the year. I got a couple of thoughts on
the matchups here fundamentally, but go ahead thoughts on Connecticut
and Butler here tonight in Biggie's play.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Yukon is interesting with as you mentioned, not being
as sharp against the number, you know, the like those
dominant teams that ended up winning the national title. They
were a juggernaut against the number in the non conference,
like covering every single game, blowing every bad team out.
And I think part of that maybe this year is
the injuries. You know, terroris Reed not being up to
full health, in them having to play a lot of
Riva at center, and then also you know, integrating Mullins
figuring him out. But yeah, they have not blasted bad
competition in the same way you typically saw with hurly teams.
And He's got that killer instinct, so you think he
wants to run it up when possible, but teams have
been able to hang around with them. You know, Colombia
had a strong second half. They didn't take care of
East Texas A and M the way I thought they would,
but they do have five incredible wins right now, Like
at the top of you know, wins above bubble metrics
and stuff. Yukon has some really, really good wins against
top competition. I think that shows up and continues. You know,
maybe Butler keeps it a little closer a La Texas.
Texas I think really saw the advantage of getting to
the free throw line against Yukon, a team that will
foul quite a bit in Butler's top fifteen free throw rate. Offensively,
I think they're going to have to do that on
the road, find a way to keep the crowd out
of it by slowing the game down and knocking down
some throws and not letting it get into a nice flow,
a nice rhythm, because that's to me, where Yukon thrives
is when they can execute their half court offense.
Speaker 3: Now they've got more.
Speaker 2: Back and read back, they can really score at will
in a half court and I don't think Butler's defense
is gonna be able to stand up against that. So
I think Butler's got to, you know, make the game choppy,
get to the foul line, maybe get read in foul trouble,
and to me, that's the key for how they hang
around here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it is interesting with Connecticut. The two true home
games against solid opponents, Arizona and Texas won a straight
up loss one and non cover strength of schedule. Wise,
the numbers will tell you Yukon has played a much
more difficult schedule than Butler. I think you know, Danny
Hurley probably has taken a little bit of time to
figure out his exact rotations here. How the minutes are
going to be dispersed with this team, but they may
get into a group. A couple of things here to
know contrasting styles. Obviously, Butler would love to go quickly.
They're twenty eighth in the country and average length of possession,
and Yukon would rather clamp down on the defensive end.
We'll see if Butler can get at easy offense before
Yukon can set up Butler a great three point shooting
team at this point in time. Yu kond a great
three point defense at this time, so you have that
as well. And Butler's got that great combination jim of
three point shooting and offensive rebounding. Yukon is capable of
negating both, which would make it real difficult for Butler's
So you know, to get inside on Yukon is a
difficult task. For sure. They have good rim protection. We'll
see what Butler can do here. The number open sixteen
and a half total one fifty one and a half
totals come way down four point surge toward the under
one forty seven and a half. Now, I think that
makes a little bit of sense. Yukon at home should
be able to dictate their style of play, and the
game has come down from sixteen and a half to
fifteen and a half. Some fifteen's out there. If you
like the Yukon side, you obviously want to shop for that.
If you like the Butler's side, you want the extra hook.
But Yukon's gonna have a opportunity to prove that they
can cover a sizeable number here against the Butler Bulldogs.
How about Saint John's and De Paul. Let's move over
there for me really quickly. I feel like this is
just a bad matchup for De Paul Saint John's. What
they do best harass the ball, play kind of helter
skelter basketball. I know it's it's with a purpose, but
just to you know, describe this style. They are a
swarming defense, a defense that wants to get after you
pretty much from the three quarters court. On Rick Patino
certainly demands that out of his team. Not the best
shooting team, last year, but certainly increased shooting this year.
Last year they couldn't put the ball in the bucket
for anything, and it came to bite them in the
rear end come tournament time when they got ousted from
the tourney. It was simply due to poor shooting and
poor shooting from the free throw line. Chris Holton has
done a good job with this team, but I just wonder, Jim,
if you feel like they're simply overmatched in this contest
against Saint John's. This game, let me just go to
the current numbers here. Saint John's opened eighteen, ben bumped
up to nineteen and a half. Total's gone from one
forty eight to one fifty one. One fifty one and
a half kind of makes sense to me. Saint John's
loves to play one way. Let's get out and score
and let's defend. And DePaul, for what it's worth, is
a fairly decent scoring team as well, better than most.
So your thoughts on Saint John's DePaul side.
Speaker 2: Or total, Yeah, the number where it's at is a
little high for me to lay it. It's it's right
around kind of what I would make my threshold. But
I do think Saint John's can fully dictate the style
of the game here. They're twenty eighth in defensive turnover
rate nationally, and De Paul, against a very bad schedule,
has not seen a team in the top one hundred
of that statistic, and I think.
Speaker 3: That's helped make their own turnover numbers look okay.
Speaker 2: But they don't have a ton of ball handling outside
of Blocker, and the freshman McClure has been solid but
hasn't seen this kind of pressure. I just think that
fact in that aspect of not seeing any true athleticism
like this, even playing LSU, a team that absolutely destroyed
to Paul like not seeing this kind of pressure will
show up and going on the road to start their
Big East campaign, and they've got Yukon on deck on Sunday,
So good luck to poor Blue Demons with that start
to Big East play. But yeah, with Saint John's wanting
to play fast, they've extended late in games quite a bit,
even against like Quinnipiac and recently some of their more
inferior competition against Iona, they extended that game late. So
even if they're only up twelve with five minutes left,
they've got a chance to cover this game because Patino
wants to keep the foot on the gas. He's got
a rotation that he's still figuring out. So you know,
guys are playing for minutes down the final edge of
the stretch here, So if they're not completely bowling out
all right away, I think there's a chance they can
still extend with the pressure, with the style, with the pace,
with the total going up. I think that helps the
favorite because we'll see a little bit more possessions and
see that talent and athleticism got play out.
Speaker 1: And it's possible through that analysis and through the way
that I feel about this game, it's possible, guys that
we could look towards team total in this game where
Saint John's is concerned, you might want to look toward
them over their number. Eighty five and a half looks
like a number that they could climb over in this
game against DePaul, As Jim mentioned, strength of schedule just
hasn't been there for De Paul, and more specifically, style
of opponent hasn't been there for De Paul so far
this year. Not that Chris Holtman can't have them prepared.
We'll see I figure Rick Patino will have his team prepared.
Interesting that they have Kentucky on deck, and from a
handicapping perspective, a lot of times you would think that
maybe this is a look ahead game, but being that
it's inside the conference, there's no way Patino's looking ahead
in this particular instance, especially against a team he's a
nineteen and a half point favorite against. You got to
have wins in the Big East where you're supposed to
get him. We'll see if he gets this one here.
Anybody again out there viewing right now with questions on games,
go ahead and drop your questions. Jim and I will
move on and do one of our own here, and
we'll take questions from anybody who's got a game that
they want us to look at. Here, let's go to
something else that it's a rivalry game, obviously somewhat high
profile here, South Carolina not as high profile this season.
Clemson has been through the riggers early on. But South
Carolina is going to go in state rival We're gonna
play Clemson here. Clemson opens thirteen one point thirty nine.
Game has been bet down to twelve and a half
totals moved up to one forty and a half. This
Clemson it has been impressive at times so far this year.
And South Carolina, which kind of opened up the season
in my eyes as a work in progress, slowly developing
a little bit here, and in this business, the one
of the main things to try and be is proactive,
try and see something before the market establishes that it's real.
And maybe South Carolina is starting to become a more
solid basketball team here thoughts on South Carolina Clemson number
moved down a little bit to twelve and a half.
As good as I've you know, I could say Clemson
has been in higher profile games. Is South Carolina plus
this many points with motivation? Obviously they always had motivation
against Clemson. Maybe the twelve and a half is too large.
Go ahead and give us your thoughts on South Carolina Clemson.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I love the dog here and I made it nine.
I would have taken anything double digit. So they get
to get up around twelve and a half. I'm surprised
it's it's wider than Ken got it eleven. I figured
it'd be right around there. To me, Clemson's style translates
best as the road or neutral site kind of underdog
pick them type games where they slow you down. They
force you to play against their size, with Godfrey and
Welling and Davidson, guys that can really control the paint.
As a big home favorite, they're a little less appealing
to me because they're not going to let you play fast.
They're not going to try to play all that fast themselves.
They're slow tempo team under Brownel and that just sets
up well for a competitive, low possession game. I know
that total has gone up, like you said, and perhaps
some of that is South Carolina hasn't made threes and
neither has their opponent, so if people are looking at
some potential regression, Clemson also top fifteen and three point
percentage of defense statistically, we could see some made shots there,
but I just think two teams that vastly prefer to
play in the half court.
Speaker 3: The rivalry aspect to it. Clemson doesn't overwhelm you with athleticism.
Speaker 2: They're just kind of big and physical and in that's so,
I think South Carolina has enough bodies to compete, and
Michie Johnson coming back after boomeranging from Ohio State to
South Carolina, to Ohio State back to South Carolina, he's
given them that steady force at lead guard. That I
think they need, and they look a little bit more
like the version from twenty twenty four that made the tournament,
whereas last year, you know, they only won a couple
sec games against a really tough slate. Their top three
games this year Virginia Tech, Northwestern Butler, they were right
there in all of them. And I think they can
be within single digits with Clemson in our trivalry game
as well.
Speaker 1: And I think a couple of things that bode well
for South Carolina here in an underdog world. They don't
turn the ball over. They rank very high in lowest
turnover percentage in the country, somewhere around the top twenty five,
so that's good for them. And you know, for what
it's worth, they rebound on defense very well. So if
you can pull Clemson to one and outs walk it
up the floor there three hundred and eighth in average
possession in length and not turn the ball over, you
definitely get the picture here. We kind of see this
game being, I think we both agree here, kind of
a slow paced, defensive style battle here, everybody getting the
setup in the half court, in which case twelve and
a half becomes extremely large. Let's go to our Guy Garth.
Thank you again, Garth for the donation the Louisville Tennessee game.
He's saying he took the lessbie under seventeen and a
half points. Seems that he doesn't play well versus good
competition so far this season. I would agree with that,
but like Jim said, it could be he's trying to
get his feet underneath him as the Tennessee lead guard
this year. It's hard to be in three different programs
in three years and adjust to all three. But I'd
like to get your take on the Arkansas Little Rock.
Morehead total is lean over one thirty eight and a half. Okay,
I'll go first here, Jim, simply because side perspective, I
cannot play Arkansas Little Rocket in any way, shape or
for him anymore. We started the season and I had
my opinions on this particular team, and mainly they're shooting ability,
which is so in even if I date back to
last year, is so inconsistent, miserable one game, pretty good,
the next, miserable the next team. I could never get
a feel on what UALR was gonna do offensively this season.
Their shooting has gotten even worse. They're just not a
good offensive team, and to make matters worse as I
dig into my notes on this game here real quick,
they don't take care of the basketball is another thing.
If you don't shoot well and you don't handle the
basketball well, it makes for a very difficult offensive night
for you. Morehead State not the greatest defensive team to
ever take the hardwood, for sure, and they're in you know,
Adam likes to use the phrase weight class. Morehead States
certainly in their weight class, and maybe they could punch
back and fight a little bit better here. They don't
necessarily take care of the basketball either in Arkansas State
or excuse me, Arkansas Little Rock is a team that
you know fairly acted defensively. So maybe they can turn
some turnovers into quick points. As we've mentioned on the
show numerous times, turnovers don't necessarily mean two points. The
other way. It could just be throwing the ball out
of bounds and then you inbounds and you know, walk
it up the floor, et cetera, et cetera. But for me,
I'm kind of done garth with ualr overs at this
point in time, just because I don't know what I'm
going to get out of them offensively. That being said,
this is a defensive opponent and an opponent that doesn't
handle the ball well where maybe they can succeed on
the offensive end. For me, I'd probably play it under
the truth. Like I say, I'm just I'm probably more
negative than most And Arkansas Little Rock at this point
in time from an offensive perspective, We'll see how it goes.
But that would be my two cents. Jim, go ahead,
Arkansas Little Rock, Morehead State.
Speaker 2: Yeah, these are two teams that are kind of messes
for different reasons right now. You know, Little Rock is
just racked with injuries. Their potential best perimeter player, KK
Robinson got hurt in the preseason, so he's gonna miss
his second straight year. One of his brothers, there's two
on the team is also out for the season. And
then last year's obc like arguably the best defensive player
in the league, Getech. I can't pronounce his first name, apologies,
but he has been out for a few games now,
big time shot blocker. They'll throw him at the top
of their zone, sometimes so much length. A guy that
used to be at Florida take him out and it
seems like they're just deflated and they haven't played well
at all this season after entering the year is the
preseason OBC favorite, So yeah, I'm not sure what to
expect from them. On the other side, like Morehead, great
team for years under Preston Spradland, but again under Maddox,
they've been bad the last two seasons. They look a
little sloppy, they look a little lost. They also have
some injury concerns here, with Davian Cunningham missing their last game,
highest usage offensive player, I'm not sure if you know if.
Speaker 3: He's going to be back.
Speaker 2: Sometimes he's reporting on the low major teams and their
injury status is shaky. So I think a Tech being
out helps the over to Garth's point, because he's such
a good defensive player, But if Cunningham's out, that almost
offsets it because then Morehead loses their best creator and
best scorer, so you've.
Speaker 3: Got to kind of balance those out.
Speaker 2: Overall, I think it's probably going to be sloppy, as
you mentioned, rob two teams that'll turn it over, and
neither team defensive rebounds, so if they can actually get
shots up, they can get offensive rebound looks and get
on the glass.
Speaker 3: But if they're coughing it up too much.
Speaker 2: Then, I just think this game is going to be
a little sloppy and I'm not sure what the pace
will actually be, so unfortunately, don't have a real strong take.
I'm just trying to give all the factors, make sure
he considered before he locks that bet in.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's what we're here for, guys, try and
give you our handicapping process on these games. Garth. Again,
we appreciate the DONA. Hopefully we've helped you long a
little bit there, Garth. By the way, Jim has been
pretty much on target with every single thing he sent
us this season, so I wouldn't be betting against Garth.
I'll reserve my bet on that game for a different
game real quick. Here to the Little Rock side here,
last couple of games have gone over this particular number
that's being offered tonight. However, Arkansas State a pretty good
offensive team to combat that. This Arkansas Little Rock team
gave up ninety to West Virginia, who wants to play
in molasses. So that's not good defensively from Little Rock.
Each side, let's the other side get their shots off
rather quickly, but goes or neither team goes quick enough
on offense to maybe take advantage of that. In particular,
we're gonna move on. We have Okay, it looks like
mad Max eight x five X. Thank you very much,
mad Max for the donation. DePaul horrible in conference play,
have played three hundred and sixty first strength of schedule
depol two hundred and three adjusted tempo, Saint John's forty
third team total Saint John's eighty five and a half
juice to underspread or team total. Okay, real quick, we'll
just repeat we did go over this game a few
minutes ago. I will just reiterate that I would be
on Saint John's team total over in this particular instance,
because to Jim's point, DePaul has not played a team
of this magnitude and style as of yet. Saint John's
is an opponent that's a step up in class for
De Paul. They're also a completely different style the way
they pressure the basketball. I could see Saint John's scoring
point soft turnovers in this particular game. Chris Holtman, we
respect him as a head coach. Obviously he'll have his
team game planned and ready for this one, so will
Rick Patino. Again, as noted early, DePaul has Yukon on deck.
Saint John's has Kentucky on deck, but we don't put
a lot of stock into that because this is a
conference game, and so Saint John's gonna want to win
every conference game. That's wina Well, so for me, it
probably would have been that team total of Saint John's
under Okay, Now, since I've talked a little more than
Jim has and he's our guest here, we gotta let
him have his thoughts. Here. We get a comment from
Darryl Benton here, Darryl, welcome to the show, faithful follower.
I see him everywhere on shows for wager Talk TV,
so we appreciate you dropping in. Rob any thoughts on
Wright State versus Miami of Ohio. I'm gonna let Jim
share his first and I'll back it up once he's done. Jim,
go ahead, right State Miami of Ohio.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: I like the home team here. I like Wright State.
We mentioned strength to schedule with the Paul. There's five
teams that have played a worse schedule than them, and
one of them is Miami Ohio. They have not played
a single Top two hundred team this year. They played
two teams that aren't even Division One. Now they go
on the road to a top one hundred and fifty team,
it's a little more battle tested, has some young impressive talent.
Michael Cooper, the freshman guard for Wright State, is like
one of the better players miam Ohio has seen all season.
I just think this is kind of one where it
catches up to Miami Ohio.
Speaker 3: A little bit.
Speaker 2: The fact that they haven't tested themselves yet. They played
a little bit on the road, Like this isn't their
first true road game. They played at air Force, went
to Asheville, went to Eastern Kentucky.
Speaker 3: But this is again the first like actually decent to
good team that they have played. And I think that
that kind of shows up and Right State's able to
get the win. Obviously.
Speaker 2: You see an undefeated team come to town, and I
think Right State's going to be pretty locked in, so
even in a strange non conference spot before both teams
start league play, I like the Raiders at.
Speaker 1: Home, and I'll take it a step further. Darryl real
quick here, because generally speaking, I am a totals handicapper. Darryl,
You've been around long enough, you know where I come from.
On most of these games, I look total first in
side second. But to Jim's point, I see an advantage
here with the Right State team total over seventy six
and a half here at home. A good scoring team.
Right State is in Miami of Ohio, as Jim pointed out,
not necessarily tested in this category so far this season,
and Miami of Ohio they've taken on sort of a
different persona here as far as pace of play is concerned.
They're a little quicker, they're a little more offensive oriented.
We always talk about when you're trying to play these
overs that possessions and number of possessions are meaningful. You
want as many chances as you can to score points.
If this game in fact comes down to as the
line would indicate, a near pick them game, you'll get
free throws in the end. Sometimes the last minute drags
on and on and on due to free throw shooting.
For Wright State, they're not a good free throw shooting team,
So it's not going to help us in that regard
where team total is concerned, especially if these free throws
are one in ones where you're missing the front end.
But I do think they're good enough offensively here to
get the job done as a good shooting team as
far as effective field goal percentage is concerned, a nice
three point shooting team as well. So maybe for me
and I will preface this by saying it's not a
game I bet, but just as far as where I
would lean, I would probably lean on Wright State team
total to get the seventy seven points in that particular game.
Back to Mad Max here, who continues to want to
have some advice on games, and Max again, thanks for
the contribution there. Northern Northern Colorado. Excuse me nine to
one getting less points due to record, but strength of
schedule three hundred and thirteen Texas techoff loss to Arkansas
spread minus twenty five and a half Texas Tech team
total ninety and a half but juiced under bounce back spot.
I will go ahead and tackle this one first here. Jim, Yeah,
I mean Max, you found a team that's basically in
my you know, little heart shaped wheelhouse. I have an
affection for the Texas Tech team JT Top and anytime
he's on the floor, he's arguably the best player on
the floor. It's a unit that works real well together.
This is a team that they can score against in
all sports. As far as my handicapping process goes. I
am a big bounce back guys, A big bounce back
guy for those who have ever subscribed or in my
analysis a lot of times you'll see in my analysis
it's a bounce back spot. And I just for Texas Tech.
That was a hard fought game against John Calipari's Arkansas team.
Arkansas is a good team here. It's a step down
in class, which we like. When we're going to try
and play these team totals over, Texas Tech has shown
the ability to get near or above this price tag
depending upon opponent. Nineteen and a half is a large number. However,
in this case it might be able to be done. Again.
I'm going to preface it by saying I have not
bet this game, but if I were going to, you
know the old proverb gun to head, what would you do?
I would probably lean towards Texas Tech over. I do
think that it's a really good bounce back spot for them.
Minus twenty five and a half gets difficult in these games, guys,
because you don't know if you have a twenty eight
point lead with you five six minutes left, the bench
is gonna get cleared. It's holiday time. Coach gonna let
kids play and the margin could decrease at that point
in time. I would say this, Northern Colorado, for what
it's worth, is not a team that's gonna give up
in the last five or six minutes. They'll play. They'll
give you the whole forty. So the number spread where
it becomes a little more difficult. I would say this,
if you like Texas Tech, you might want to just
slice it in half, isolate the first half of this game.
As I say this, I'm going to try and get
you the current first half number on this one, because
it's probably if I were going to play Texas Tech,
I would probably lean that way. They're a fourteen Well
shop it out between thirteen and a half and fourteen
and a half point favorite here, so try and get
the lowest number available if you're on the Texas Tech side.
But I would probably look towards Texas Tech coming out
from the opening tip with a little bit of fire
and maybe covering first half. Jim go ahead thoughts on
this one.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was kind of thinking about the first half too,
because Texas Tech has no depth. They've really got six
guys that they trust playing. They only played six against
Arkansas this weekend, and part of that was because Luke Bamguoy,
their big shot blocking center, was out with a concussion
and Josiah Mosley, the transfer from Villanova, hasn't played yet
this year. So they've got eight guys they want to
play and only six are healthy right now. So that
I think helps the first half in a little bit
that you know, if they're playing their backups late, you
worry about that backdoor cover you mentioned with Northern Colorado
wanting to get back in the game. Also, Northern Colorado
hasn't played a team anywhere near this caliber, so I
think that sort of helps the first half angle two,
where there could be a little bit of shell shock
of playing a high major power five team with athleticism.
I mean, the best team that they've played is Saint Thomas.
That's the only top two hundred team that Northern Colorado
has played, and I love Saint Thomas. They're super well coached,
but that is not a team that brings a lot
of athleticism. They are a skill based, execution based type team.
Texas Tech could really overwhelm Northern Colorado in the paint. Now,
the two caveats I'll get one. Texas Tech has not
been a great first half team so far this year,
Like even when they blew out New Orleans didn't take
care of business there. They're only up five on Milwaukee
after a loss. Those are their two post loss performances,
and they really were better in the second half, so
keep that in mind. And then also there's some weird
scheme familiarity here because of the staffs. Steve Smile used
to work for Jeff Linder at Northern Colorado.
Speaker 3: He's not head coach.
Speaker 2: Jeff Linder is now on the Texas Tech staff, hired
away from Wyoming last year by Grant McCaslin, so the
coaches really know each other. That maybe is a little
less conducive to a blot if there's familiarity, So lean
towards that first half. I did not bet anything here,
but I think the angle makes sense given to lack
of debt and Northern Colorado just taking a huge step
up in class.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take this time right here real quick, guys,
just to promo at wager talk dot com. It is
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want to talk for all thirty plus members of the
wager Talk analyst staff, but most times, every single one
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in five dollars Tuesday today on the road. As we mentioned,
he's got to catch two games today. So for those
who know Adam, he's he's gonna make use of all
his trips to Arenas and he's going to turn one
into two, maybe even one into three. But back to
the wager talk website, all handicappers five dollars Tuesday. I
will have my play up here as soon as this
show concludes. Also, there are special packages all over the
place at wage talk dot com for these holiday seasons.
If you're a college football guy, there is a bowl
season package. Tonight begins just an incredible amount of college
football bowl games in succession each and every night we're
going to be staring at college football. There are football
packages that reduced rates right now, right through the Super Bowl.
As I mentioned, a Bowl package goes through the National Championship.
You can also get daily offers. I think there there's
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talk dot com, especially on Tuesdays four five dollars Tuesday.
As I conclude that, Jim, we have a thing here
where each and every day we release a parlay the analyst.
We started out with three of us, myself, Adam Trigger
and Brian Power. We would each release one play, make
a three team parlay and give it to the viewership
and see how we do as it sits. We did
win last night, by the way, for those watching your
well aware, I myself had the Wyoming team total up
and over seventy eight and a half. They got the
rather easily, and that game was bet down by tip
off it was seventy six and a half, but Wyoming
did the job, and Adam was on Houston Christian plus
the points which did get there against McNeice, the underdog
used the points to get the cash, and so that
parlay brought us back to I was texting with Adam
this morning. He does the math for us right around
the even mark. I think, a very very slight plus
on the season. So we're gonna take that into today.
I won't ask you for yours, now, give you an
opportunity to keep looking if you haven't got it already.
But I'm gonna give mine, and I'm gonna go out
west in a game where style contrast is going to
be huge. Montana State at cal Poly slow cal Poly
right now guys the second fastest tempo team in the nation,
ninth fastest in average length of possession, and not only
are they quick to release their shots, they're quick to
give them up on the other end, fifty fifth in
the nation. You come right back down, now, Montana's is
not a team that generally plays that style, but I
often say that in college basketball especially, it does happen
in the NBA too, Although in the NBA seems to
be every game now just up and down, But in
college basketball teams that are favored kind of will fall
into an underdog's pace of play if it's quick, because
they feel like, you know, we can get buckets against
these guys in what college basketball player doesn't want to
pad their stats. I think that's where Montana State will
fall tonight. They're not necessarily a fast paced team, but
Polly at Home is going to push the pace incredibly.
Here we're staring at a total that has been bet
up a little bit from fifty six and a half
one fifty six and a half all the way to
one fifty nine and a half. We need one sixty
to cash this ticket. You go through the cal Poly
results so far this season, you see that one sixty
has been a common occurrence. Breaking that barrier has been
a common occurrence for this team. They're a good three
point shooting team as well. We'll see if Montana State
can defend in an open floor type contest. Always tough
to find your man when the game is going fast.
When you can set up in the half court, you
can find your guy and lock him down a little bit,
follow him around. But in open floor basketball, it's very
difficult to find all the three point shooters cal Poly again,
very fast offensive team, very good three point shooting team
on their home floor, probably dictate pace. I think Montana
State might be good for eighty in this instance as well.
I can see this thing hitting low one sixties right now.
There's still wiggle room. Obviously we've lost the opening number
at one fifty six and a half, but even at
one fifty nine and a half, like I say, I
can see this one getting to the one sixty three marks.
So for me, my first leg of the parlay here
and we'll get gyms as the show goes on, will
be the Montana State cal Poly game. Stay up late
tonight if you're on the East coast, up and over
one fifty nine and a half. Art is back with us,
Okay and Garth. As I mentioned earlier, generally a wealth
of information as far as producing winners for us here
on the show. I will just shout out to the
chat room here on this show, Jim, we have a
chat room that's extremely knowledgeable in this sport, college basketball.
They bring good info each and every day, have good
thoughts and opinions. It's nice to have to speak with
an audience that does have a love for the sport.
And does follow the sport closely. Here we got East
Tennessee State UNC under one forty nine and a half
is the way Garth is looking. Seems like the Tar
Heels have been an underwagon. I won't disagree with that.
I'm gonna pass it off to Jim here. Let him
talk a little bit about this etsu North Carolina game,
and you know, if you have a play on the side, Jim,
go ahead and let it go as well. But Garth
is interested in the total here, so your thoughts.
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's absolutely spot on. They've been an underwagon. The
total has gone under an eight of their ten games.
It's going under by over ten points a game so
far this year. So definitely a wagon on that side
of the ball. And Garth, I will own that I
have been on a couple of UNC overs that have
not gone very well. So you're sharper than me on
UNC totals, I'll say that much. But yeah, East Tennessee
State has some general interest in running their coach, Brooks
Savage as a Steve Forbes guy. He coached under him
both at East Tennessee State and at Wake Forest, But
that team hasn't played very fast this year and UNC
has done a great job defensively of slowing teams down,
you know, outside the top three hundred defensive possession length.
I think it's because they're huge and you just have
a hard time producing shots against that interior. They're number
one in the country in average height. UNC is so
like all across the positional spectrum, they've got size, and
for a mid major team that's really hard to compete with.
I do lean towards the dog because I don't think
UNC has been overly convincing as a favorite, like laying
the number only beat up State by eighteen, Bonaventure by fifteen,
Navy by twelve, like these are not runaway performances Radford
by fifteen, So I think East Tennessee State has the
talent to stick around. But I do like your under
angle because of the way UNC has controlled the pace
and East Tennessee State's not the kind of team that's
gonna crazy push the ball, and with UNC leading into
a very drop coverage heavy type style, like they're not
extending pressure, they're staying back by the hoop and forcing
you to work on the perimeter that that works well
for an under. So I like the angle there on the.
Speaker 1: Under yeah, and real quick here, Jim, I'll just get
into a little bit of betting philosophy with you for
the moment. Obviously, UNC, this is a much different style
team that Hubert Davis is putting on the floor. As
you said, three six ten a plus across their front line,
all three positions. Generally we expect UNC to be a
push to tempo, score quickly, good decent shooting to good
shooting team, point production type team, and this year it
has been different and underwagon. Eventually, odds makers do catch
up to this type of stuff. But again, perception of
a team's history and recent history factors into how they
rate these teams to start the season. Maybe they're slow
on the trigger, UNC totals are concerned. And then on
the East Tennessee state side, you mentioned Brooks Savage Steve
Forbes disciple in your opinion, how much of their kind
of different pace you know you would expect the Forbes
guy to play faster? How much of that not as
fast tempo would you say is dedicated to him getting
used to and evaluating his current personnel. In other words,
would you expect them to climb the ladder pace wise
as the season goes on and maybe he's just experimenting
evaluating right now, or do you think this is after
seeing Etsu over eleven games. Do you think this is
the fashion that they're going to play all season long?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think this is kind of who they are,
you know, looking back to the tenure with Forbes and Savage,
at Etsu when they were dominant, the thirty and fourteen
was the slowest team that Forbes had there, and so
I think maybe that's representative and has probably stuck with Savage.
Of all right, when we slowed it down, we were
really good. And that hasn't quite been the case from
at Etsu. But he did go twelve and six in
the league last year, and it's a shaky conference this year.
I don't think Chattanooga or Furman or any of those
preseason favorites have looked that good. So Etsu's got a
chance to sit atop the league, and with what they
have right now, they're the highest rated team in ken
Pom in the SoCon. Playing the way they're playing, I
would expect them to kind of sit in this and
lean into this identity and just real quick to your
point on UNC, I know this number is right around
what Ken Palm makes it total wise, but this is
by far the slowest UNC team in the last like
twenty years, between the way Hubert had played early in
his tenure and just what Roy Williams always did. For
them to be outside the top one fifty in tempo
is like unprecedented. And it's because they're slowing teams down.
It's because of that size you mentioned Rob's three six
ten guys. Teams just don't know what to do in
the half court to produce a quality shot against them.
They're sitting back, they're conservative, and they're just saying good
luck figuring out a shot in the mid range when
you have to shoot over a six to ten guy
or a six to six wing. So I do think
the way I talk through this, I probably wasn't strong
on the under before we got on the show, but
just having to look at it and dig into it
and talk through it, I think it makes a ton
of sense.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and the show absolutely is always looking to accomplish
that gym. Sometimes you talk it out, you get a
better view. We get different opinions here on the show
that clarify things for un C. I think it's interesting.
I will say this as we look ahead, as we
project ahead to North Carolina hitting the ACC schedule. When
they do, I think we're going to find that teams
are not going to allow them to set up in
that half court offense, not allow them to funnel things
to these six to ten rim protectors. On defense, I
think anybody that plays with pace is going to look
to get fast, easy offense against this team because it's
much easier to score when they're not set up than
it is when they are set up. And again to
your point, unless they have, you know, three Cooper flags
that can run the floor, it's going to be a
slower paced team when you have this type of size.
So obviously North Carolina taking on a different identity here,
but I think as in the upcoming weeks here we
can specify situations here against faster paced ACC teams that
might say, you know what, we're not standing for this
setting up against the letting them set up that half
court offense. Florida State comes to mind as a quicker
ACC team where maybe an overplay would be maybe by
that time the odds makers have adjusted toward the under
them catch value with the over we will see that's.
Speaker 3: Rob guess who un C play is in their first
ACC game.
Speaker 1: Florida Florida State. Yeah, and I'll say, you know what,
we may come back to this tape, Jim. We may
have to roll this back in fact, when we see
the number on that game, and if that game does
get over all right, it looks like fixer time. Okay,
fixer time. Excellent spelling there. Welcome to the show. Glad
to have you here. Glad you dropped in with a
comment here thoughts on the early game between Drexel and Howard. Obviously,
as we stated at the beginning of the show, you
don't see Adam Trigger in the host chair today simply
because he's at that game. Oh wait a minute, by
he wants to drop in. Good morning, Keith. I can't
wait to see Trigg on ESPN today hitting the six
seven handwaves with the kids at Trexel. And there's no question,
you know, Trigg seats today because of lack of ticket availability,
our court side. Him and his dad are court side.
So there's a real good shot that the one ESPN
camera that's sent to this game or whatever network it's
being broadcast on, that one camera may catch the front road.
We may see Trigg doing high school. I don't think
we'll see him doing high school thing. He's gonna be
amongst a lot of youngsters here today. Drexel Howard Jim
I often talk. In fact, I had this discussion Sunday
on Wager Talks End Zone Live show where somebody had
a comment in the comments section and they asked, how
do you stop yourself from just spraying the board and
playing a zillion games? What's your process? And you know,
when it came my turn to kind of give my
opinion or my handicapping style, I simply said, you know
what I do right off the bat as I go
through the card, and I immediately cross off games that
I don't think I'll have any interest, and whether it
be because at the think that the number is too
close and there's not enough wiggle room to have a
decent play, you have no value in other words, or
whether it be there's an injury that I don't have
a real good read on how to decipher the way
the game will be played, whatever the reason being, I
go through and in my process generally what I'll do
is I'll cross off all games that I don't think
can go over the total. That's the way I handicap.
And then I'm left with the rest of the board.
I bring that up because today Drexel Howard was a
game I put the complete red mark through. Don't want
to play it, don't have a good feel for it, obviously,
don't want to lead the audience watching us in a
bad direction because I don't have a feel. But if
you have any thoughts at all on this early game
where our good friend Adam Trigger will be doing the
six to seven chance, go ahead and let us know
what you feel on this one.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've got a policy with these day games where
I have to have a really good reason if I'm
going to back the road to because I think it's
just the weekday tip with the young crowd, and in
my anecdotal experience, I don't have the data to back
this up, but I probably love to do the research
on it. But like Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday pre noon tips
have felt so tilted towards home teams over my betting
history over the last seven years or so that I've
been doing this, and I end up on road teams
all the time and I lose, and I'm like, why
do I keep doing this to myself?
Speaker 3: So this one I did.
Speaker 2: Make it slightly higher than the spread here, Like I
make Drexel just a notch above the six and a half.
Speaker 3: I do lean their way.
Speaker 2: Howard's basically got one good offensive player, that's Bryce Harris,
and if you're able to shut him down, and what
he is is a six to four post player, so
he's dominant against bad competition. But if you're playing a
team with an actual power forward sized player or a
center that can guard him around the rim, he struggles
to score. That's generally what Drexel has. The concern is
it's probably not gonna be very high paced. Drexel wants
to play in the half court, but I think they
can slow down Harris, and I think they've got enough
pieces offensively. It's not a great offensive team. They didn't
go into the transfer portal much of the offseason, but
I think they've got enough to extend. Just in this weird,
strange early tip spot where it stollily seems to tilt
towards the home team in my experience.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a definitely an interesting look there with these
early games. Obviously, when the Saturday card comes, you'll be
seeing a bunch of noontime starts. Sometimes they're in time
zones where it becomes eleven am start, ten am start
and the road team up against it a little bit.
Let's go ahead to as we try and get a
few in before we have to close here slick, Vic,
and with us glad to have you here today, Vic.
Do we lay it with Texas at home tonight in
a bounce back spot? Texas had a lot of bounced
back spots, haven't they. It's a team this year that,
now granted, played a pretty solid schedule. For sure, when
they get into Big twelve, it's going to be a
little bit different for them. I don't know that they
have the defensive capability, but as far as tonight's game
is concerned, again, I didn't play here, guys, and I
am a bounce back guy. I looked at the total here.
I will say that much real quick this morning with
an anticipation that maybe I could play over Lemoyne just
drags so slowly that I couldn't. But I, you know what,
here's the bottom line to what I handicapped here. I
could see Texas going out and routing Lemoyne. I could
also see Texas not paying much attention to this game,
even though it is a bounced back spot. They've got
a couple in a row here, guys, Maryland Eastern Shore
is on deck. These are either games that and let's
backtrack to Sean Miller here for it a second, because
the last time we spoke about Texas, it was against Yukon,
and Sean Miller basically was throwing his team defense under
the bus and said, if we don't do something about
this defense, there's no way we're going to be any good.
I'm paraphrasing, but that was the gist of the comment
that he made about this team. The defense did show
up fairly well, I would say against Yukon the seventy one,
somewhat a product of the way Yukon likes to play.
But Texas hung in and played very very well in
that game. So you could see a bounce back here.
But I could see a little disinterest as well. So
for that reason, I'm off of it side in total wise, Jim,
if you have a better feel for this game, something
you may or may not bet on this one, go
ahead and let him know.
Speaker 2: No, not much on the side here. Texas is a
team I've generally not trusted since the preseason. I predicted
them to miss the tournament after making it last year,
and you know, they haven't gotten much of a big
win at all this year. The NC State won and
Maui is the only thing that looks good. I think
their defensive numbers are skewed by playing in Maui, Like
that is just an offensive paradise with those Rims in
the small gym. I think that is conducive to a
lot of efficient scoring. And then they come back and
Virginia wipes them out by shooting fifty percent from three.
But I think it's a solid defensive team and I
think Sean Miller has their attention there. And Yukon obviously
didn't score at will, and Yukon's a really good offensive team.
So I actually have a little bit of a lean
towards the under in this game, even though it's well
below the ken Pom projected total. Both teams have seen
some unlucky three point shooting. Texas has given up over
thirty six percent from three, Lamoyne over forty one percent
from three. I think that comes down a little bit.
I think the disinterest shows up. The disinterest you mentioned
shows up a little bit in pace, and this game
is kind of slower ugly, especially in the second half.
Just kind of let's just get to the end and
I think it stays under the total.
Speaker 1: All right, So here we go. We have about four
minutes till we have to close, and we have a
hard out here on full press as we give way
to our Chyle League, Andrew McGuinness and the Wager Talk
Hockey Show. But Jim, we're gonna put you on the
spot now to convert a leg of the parlay for us.
Mine is in go ahead and give a short leg
of the parlay for today.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a game we already discussed.
Speaker 2: I hope that's all right, But I'm gonna go with
South Carolina plus twelve and a half. I just I
like the number there, I like the spot. I like
to match up with the way. I don't think it
gets up and down in a rival that's not going
to go away, even if they get down ten early.
I think South Carolina is the type of team that
can battle back there. I saw a couple of people
in the chat that were interested in the game. Cock,
so hey, let's get it done.
Speaker 3: Let's do it.
Speaker 2: South Carolina is also covered three straight against Clemson. That
matters a little bit to me, since it's the same
coach on both sides, I think Paris maybe has not solved,
but he at least knows how to prepare for Clemson
and the size and the rebounding that they bring to
the table. So with that number up in the double
figures and the historical trends on that matchup, I think
South Carolina is a really good look as a road
dog there getting twelve and a half.
Speaker 1: And for those who are interested, you can dial back.
I know time stamps will be attached to the show today.
You can dial back to the beginning of the show
where we both discuss this game, provided our analysis of it,
and you just have Jim's added analysis there. Why he's
on South Carolina plus twelve and a half. Let me
go ahead and take this time real quick just to
recap what will be a two team parlay tonight. We
don't have a leg from Trigg today simply because in.
Speaker 4: Trigg said he likes Maris seven and a half. Let
me just throw it in there. He texted me separately
and he said, if we're doing a parlay Maris plus
seven and a half, no analysis. I'm sure he's sent
it while driving, but Maris seven and a half for
treg There you go.
Speaker 1: There you go, guys. Our producer Dan Alexander jumps in
to give us the latest info. Adam trigger on Maris
plus seven and a half. So let's go ahead and
do the recap here. Trigg will have to do without
his analysis today, but I can tell you if it's
coming from that conference, he's got something in depth reasons
why he likes Merit plus seven and a half. That's
the first leg. Go to Jim who provided us with
South Carolina against Clemson here plus to twelve and a
half in that in state rivalry, and then close it out.
I myself am on Montana State at cal Poly slow
over one fifty nine and a half, three team, or
I'll let Adam do the math. I won't do it
now because I want to take the final ninety seconds
or whatever. We have to thank Jim Root for filling
in today so admirably giving us coverage on this show.
Jim once again, go ahead and tell the folks where
they can find your work. And guys, you do want
to go ahead and visit and see what Jim has
to offer.
Speaker 3: Yeah, please do.
Speaker 2: I've got the three man We've podcast I do with
Matt and Kai. We've been doing that for a decade.
Typically comes out on Friday mornings because of our schedules,
but we talk about, you know, the week. It was
a little bit of previous section. We've got a Saturday
betting show that I know Adam I think probably plugged
on the show before. He's always been really kind about
talking us up. We talk about the Saturday slate and
then also Basket under Review. It's ten dollars a month
for all kinds of written content. There's the Discord where
we talk about betting every single day. There's really really
good resource for college basketball fans, betters alike. I think
it's a great place to be, a great place to
discuss within that discord. There's good channels in there for teams.
You got Jordan Majeski dropping in with injury news every
once in a while, and that really helps because he's
so well sourced. So I highly encourage people doing that.
I think it's a bargain and that's a big one. Oh,
I've got another podcast over there too. That's what I
was doing before we recorded this. Stats by Will and Jim.
Will Warren and I go back and forth talking about
stats from the week that was in college hoops. So
check that out as well. That's free for everybody on
wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 1: Guys, go ahead and give Jim a look. As I
close out here, I just want to remind everybody it
is five dollars Tuesday over at wager Talk all handycappers
a five dollars release. Go ahead and visit if you
haven't before. Great time to get involved. Like to say
thank you everybody for joining us here today. That'll do
it for Full Court Press. We'll see you tomorrow for
Wednesday's college basketball card.