Speaker 1: What is up, Fellasicho's I am dam Balley coming at
you with my certified, fantabulous, one and only, irreplaceable, indispensable
manager of the Year for you baseball co hosting mister
Grant Hughes, We're here to talk today about some later
season NBA breakouts that we think deserve more attention. One
of them is glaringly obvious, but the rest maybe not
so much. So we have like ten or eleven players
here that we will go through just sort of like
putting a pin in it buying. Are we buying or
selling this? Do we think it sustains? What are the
long term implications? We'll get into it all. But first, Grant,
how the heck are you?
Speaker 3: I'm doing well.
Speaker 2: I'm glad we're doing this too, because, uh, I was thinking,
as I was thinking about this beforehand, I find myself
at the first of all, the very first person I
think of for this type of exercise, like if you
go back over the last several years, do you want
to guess who it is?
Speaker 3: Like, oh, the late season surge? How much does it mean?
Speaker 1: Okay, so the first so specific player, it wasn't like
a sort of jailing green.
Speaker 2: That's really it's an even better answer that should be
the right answer. Mine was Anthony Simons because it felt
like it happened twice. He had like two separate late
surges where the Blazers had quit, and it's like, oh
my god, you ever was like twenty seven and seven
over in March?
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 1: Uh, But if you want to read about NBA basketball,
it's that March absolutely is telltale of what well.
Speaker 2: So that's that's thank you for that. That ties exactly
back to what I was thinking, is that, like I
skew towards skepticism, Like that's my default position on almost
all these guys because or at least coming into it,
maybe after some research something.
Speaker 3: My opinion did change on a couple. But as far
as like buy or.
Speaker 2: Sell, But like do you approach this with uh okay,
I like, I'll remember this, but there's no way I'm
going to get suckered into thinking player X is actually
this good and will be this good all next year
because March or post All Star Break, they've they've looked
like a different guy. Do you are you skeptical by
nature on this type of thing?
Speaker 1: Yeah? I think I approach everything with a measure of
skepticism or even devil's advocacy, or if it's something where
I approach it with, okay, I'm wrong, not that I
necessarily think that I'm wrong, but let me try and
disprove why this wouldn't be real. And I also think
some of the players that I at least selected are
reflective of that in the way of I'm not buying
into just like maybe there's bigger name players that have
made these sort of like Steph Castle is a good example.
We've talked about him a lot on this podcast. He's
not on this list just because we've given him a
ton of shine when it comes to we did rookie
stock reports, we've done Rookie of the Year and all
rookie talks. But it's like the scoring efficiency is up,
and so yeah, that might be telltale, but it's like,
I'm not just going to buy when it's a bit
like more of a bigger name prospect or player, and
then the assumption is, well, this proves that he's going
to be a star. I will always go into this
saying that's not the case, even though might be because
you want to see what holes you could poke into it.
Speaker 3: It's like for Castle, He's a good example.
Speaker 2: Like I think I will go into next season, like
if forced to answer the question of like, so what's
the biggest like swing factor for Castle or like what
what are you worried, It'll be like the shooting, you know,
I'll I'll like forget that he's been like more efficient
during this stretch because like basically this this stretch won't
answer like the lingering you know, career trajectory question. It's
just like a data point that's kind of interesting, and
you can if in fact, like these guys do sustain
what they're doing now, you'll be able to point back
to this and say like, oh, it actually started at
the end of twenty four to twenty five, but we
discounted it. So yeah, I just I just wanted to
like anchor there, which is I think I'm going to
talk up a lot of these players and like kind
of be sold by some of them. But I do
think that is the right approach, which is just to say,
like listen, if we go on and on about how
like oh, the playoffs are the games that matter, Like
that's where you really learn who can do what and
who can't do what, then this is the exact opposite
of that, where it's like march games, especially for certain
teams that are not fielding real lineups, for example, it's like, Okay,
this is nice, but we gotta be like really critical
of it.
Speaker 1: And I think for all of these players, it's at
least an acknowledgement they are currently headed in the right direction,
and I think it gets more interesting to talk about
rather than, oh, is this the new normal for everyone?
I think it's for some of the players who are
more established, because we have a lot of the younger
guys on here, but someone like Quentin Gron' would be
a good example, or the first player that we're going
to get to in just one second, it's okay, like
they've been in the league a little bit, especially the
first player, and so that's when I think it matters
more to ask the question of, oh, is this exactly
like how they're going to play moving forward, rather than
is this more an indication of where their stock is headed?
Or what would like us finding out more good information
about what they could do.
Speaker 3: Let's get to it.
Speaker 1: We begin with Denny avia Grant. What's he been doing.
Speaker 3: He's been doing a lot.
Speaker 2: He's got like a trio of games here in the
last I don't know a handful of weeks that if
you had checked out on the Blazers, which why because
they're still one of the most exciting, like kind of
out of it teams.
Speaker 1: Can I interject?
Speaker 3: Please?
Speaker 1: Can I interject before you get started? I had to
do who's gonna make the play in? Like who's in
and who's out? Recently I put the Blazers in over
the Suns, did you. I mean, it's just like, what
is I The whole thing is that the Sun's been
playing better in March. Congratulations, you're still five hundred and
we have a whole season's worth a sample, Plus you
have the toughest remaining schedule. The Blazers defense, I still
their offense gives me. Some of their lineups are killing it,
but their offense can get very choppy. The defense it
lines up with the personnalities like Donovan Click can play
more minutes. It's I have them. I want them to
make the play in at this point. I know fans
care more about the lottery odds in some cases, but
at this point you're not falling any lower than like
eighth in the order, So just get in the play
in and get that experience as would be would be
my preference.
Speaker 2: Well, and and Ovdi no, that's a great say, Like
Ovdia's defense is I think if you're we may have
some harbor some doubts about some of the other stuff
he's done, whether he can hold up under this level
of usage, so on and so forth, but like the
defense is real, Like this guy is a legitimate like
big forward, versatile, plays super hard, is extremely strong, Like
I keep seeing reports about like how much stronger he's got,
and he's always seemed like really like played with a
lot of force and is like a powerful player, Like
he's a legit defender.
Speaker 3: It's still Timani Kamara.
Speaker 2: Is where it starts and stops, like that guy's like
the guy defensively for Portland.
Speaker 3: But Avdia is like not.
Speaker 2: That far off from being close to that level. So
but we're not talking about the defense. So just against
the Grizzlies the other night, thirty one, sixteen and eight,
he had thirty four, sixteen and six against the Warriors,
twenty seven to fifteen and five against the Knicks. After
the All Star break, he's averaging basically twenty nine and five,
twenty points, nine rebounds, five assists almost sixty five percent
true shooting. His usage is up to around twenty five percent,
So like he's just an on ball weapon now at
a higher usage rate than he's played, you know, really
at any point in his career. But like he's an
interesting guy to be here because you and I have
been in the bag for him since like his rookie
season in Washington.
Speaker 3: I think like we've been looking.
Speaker 2: For excuses to talk about him, and now it's kind
of undeniable because he is just a legitimate offensive threat.
Like the three point accuracy is up on higher volume,
it's thirty six percent now shot thirty seven point four
percent last year on lower volume.
Speaker 3: He's driving more.
Speaker 2: He's not shooting better on drives, but he's getting the
line like over twice as often per game on drives.
So just like the whole offensive package. He's not a
first option, like that's that's not where we're going here,
but as like a really good second slash, third option,
who can create, who's gonna draw fouls, who can make
open threes. Like I mean, he's just a high end
starter to me, And this is one of the quote
unquote breakouts like that I do legitimately buy I think.
Speaker 3: He is this good.
Speaker 2: The only question is, you know, on the next year's
iteration of the Blazers or like, I don't know, whatever
might change for them going forward. Is he gonna get
like quite this much opportunity to like be on the
ball and to have this high usage and shoot the
ball this much. I don't know, but I do think
if he if he does get those opportunities, this feels
like pretty real to me.
Speaker 1: I yeah, I would agree. I definitely buy it. And
I'm why would he have less of an opportunity next year?
Is it?
Speaker 2: You might see like scoot and shade and scale up
a little bit. But yeah, no, it's it's not like
you're giving more touches to cling In or Camara. You
wouldn't think so. But I could see both guards getting
a little more time on the ball.
Speaker 1: Also, what if they do end up with a hot
like they get lucky in the lottery and they draft
someone who's supposed to be on ball, It probably help
a little bit. I know he's not soaking up like
a metric ton of touches, but if you trade Jeremy
Grant like you could inoculate yourself against some scaling down
I would buy it too. The thing that I think
reinforces this is more about the Blazers though, because we
seen it when it comes to Scoots finishing at some
other players as well, Denny. After you shooting like fifty
two percent on layups since the start of February, just
forty two percent on two point jumpers. I want that
team to get better. Spacing so bad. It's I love
a lot of the personnel and some of the lineups
are really working, but if you could just add or
infuse this rotation with another really dangerous shooter. Yeah, And
I think at this point you almost have to wonder
because I know Kamara and Ovia have been shooting the
ball well from three. Grant is what he is. But
it's like, if it could come at the three or
the four, because you do have Simons, assuming he's still
going to be there next year, I think that would
open up like a ton of space for the two
players that I think actually would benefit most from it,
or Scoot and Denny.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think.
Speaker 2: I mean that's that's like a tension point though, right
because if Klingon is a core piece, which it seems
like he pretty much is, like you're just you're only
gonna have so much spacing going forward. You know, he's
gonna be barring like a I mean he's behind Edie
as like a spacing shooting center, and like Edie's like
very speculative on that front anyway, But yeah, I agree,
better space, and like he's not Avdiya is not like
a on top of the rim finisher by any stretch,
Like he does use the slow step and he's uses
his strength and stuff like finishing craft. I think is
really a point you'd want him to develop. And that's
gonna be even more important because I think Donovan Klingon's
just gonna be in there, you know, like there's only
gonna be so much space.
Speaker 1: Which he's really good. It's just it's not necessarily the
center's job to space the floor. He'll have that, you know,
if you can run picking rolls between those two. Having
just more shooting and will help there as well. We
move on to our next player, and it is Josh Giddy.
Did you think that he would be appearing on such
a list this season?
Speaker 2: Grant, No, well no, but but like haven't we sort
of been down? I should have looked this up more closely,
But like I feel like we've been down the road
of like, oh my god, the three is falling. That
changes everything for Josh Giddy and and the three is falling.
I mean he missed time. I think he went like
nine days off. He's got an ankle injury right now,
has missed probably three or four games I guess in
that stretch of March. But like he is making his threes,
so that's that's like a legitimate thing. He's twenty one
of forty from from deep in his first nine games
after the break, and like it's.
Speaker 3: Not like he was broke all year. Like he's been in.
Speaker 2: The thirty four thirty five percent before the All Star
Break on catch and shoot threes, but he's up to
like the high forties on catch.
Speaker 3: And shoot threes since the All Star break.
Speaker 2: Has even made pull ups, Like I think I count
there's a few days ago, so there might be one
or two extra, but it's like six of eight on
pull up threes, which is really dragging the average up
after the All Star Break.
Speaker 1: Were they the slowest most methodical pull up threes in
the history.
Speaker 3: I should have looked at the tape because it's like,
how does he even do that? Like how is that possibly?
How does he create the space?
Speaker 2: I think much like he's a good foil for Avdia
because I think we've both been pretty out.
Speaker 3: On Giddy in general.
Speaker 2: So like the skepticism is high here because even if
the three point shooting is anywhere close to this, it
doesn't mitigate the like, well who does he guard question,
which is like such a central issue for him, and
if and the follow up is like, well, if he's
on the ball all the time, which he still probably
should be, because I don't know the defenses are ever
going to be concerned about him because of the slow
release and because of you know, then like what's that
mean for the rest of your offense?
Speaker 3: I think all the.
Speaker 2: Biggest Giddy questions persist, like even with better shooting, just more.
I mean, he's got like twenty three and ten and eight.
You know, he's got a crazy post all star break
like counting stat average. I don't think we should be
swayed by that or by the like spike in three
point shooting, because I just don't, like, do you ever
see him being someone that it's like, oh my god,
we left giddy open as a defense, like someone's getting
pulled out of the game for that mistake.
Speaker 1: I don't think so, no, because even his former teammate
Lou Dort would be a great exercise. And this players
now dangerous from three. He takes a bunch of them,
He makes a bunch of them, and defense is still
don't care.
Speaker 3: Right, they're like least of the evils will let him.
Speaker 1: Right shoot it. So and also to your point, like
this is just we've been here seeing that before. So
post all so, pre pre All Star break, for his
career Grant he's shooting thirty one point two percent from three.
His career post All Star Break, he's shooting thirty eight
point two percent. For his true shooting percentage, it increases
by five and a half points from pre All Star
to post All Star. His post All Star sample size
for his entire career Grant is sixty two games. And
so it's just this is encouraging, and you look at
just the other stuff he could do. I think the
big thing for him is that can you get him
to where he's hitting either pull up twos or his
floaters at a really good rate, because then that will
at least open up his game and everyone else's game,
because he's never gonna be at least sustainably a top
notch finisher. To me, like he doesn't have that that
speed or it doesn't even seem like he has that
feel around the basket, and when he gets so deep
it almost feels like he's looking to pass more. Anyway,
He's at forty seven point two percent on his floaters
since February first, Like that's probably like that's a pretty
good number to be yet I don't think it's life
changing or anything around there. But if you like, if
he's going to take those shots and make them and
he's going to hit his wide open threes, like he
does become way more of a valuable player to Chicago
and it does make Does this influence anything that you've
seen over the past, you know, months, two months, whatever,
how much you would pay him in restricted free agency?
Speaker 2: I mean the thirty million dollar figure per year is
what's been out there. I think Brian Windhors it was
one of those things where like Windhorse was talking about
like the going rate. It was in context of discussing Giddy.
The going rates thirty million a year for a starting
point guard kind of seems like Giddy's a starting point guard.
I think it's it would be a huge mistake to
pay him that much just because like, of all the
of all the defensive issues, of all the like fit issues,
all that stuff is just still there. So I think
I don't think the broader market is going to look
at this and say, okay, like, let's get an offer.
Sheheet ready, like I or you know, I just I don't.
Let's look what do we got for Giddy? The bulls though,
I do think the Bulls now because you know, the
pop committed nature of it all, like, hey, we gave
up Caruso. Like I do think this makes it more
likely that they pay him more than they should. I
really do, because they're they're sitting there watching it. And
maybe it's harder to like cause if you're the Bulls,
you really want this, like you're much more apt to
be like taken in by this this hotter stretch than
you are if you're like kind of added remove and
trying to be objective about Giddy.
Speaker 1: What's tough for me is that so thirty million will
be about twenty percent of the salary cap if we assume,
like moving forward, if we assume he gets the maximum raises,
that's really not the end of the world. If he
is your starting point guard, my issue would become I
think that there is real downside there that you might
not have with a lot of other starting level point guards.
And also, and go check out our episode with Keith
Smith from this previous week where I asked this question.
I'm not in favor of players having to accept less
money than teams are willing to give. But I don't
understand when restricted free agency specifically has unspooled the way
that it has the past few years, where no one
I know there's not a ton of cap space out there.
That's one part of the point, but also too even
when there's been cap space, it's not being used to
give out offer sheets. And so make go find me
offer sheet that is going to get him thirty million
dollars a year. And if he finds it, if Brooklyn decides, hey,
we need someone to leave the offense, we think it's
this guy, he won't ruin our tank next year. Okay, great,
then decide whether you want to match it or not.
Speaker 3: Yeah, No, I feel like I don't know.
Speaker 2: It does feel like you're rooting for management, which is
always like kind of uncomfortable. But I do think I
totally agree, especially in a case like this, but almost
more broadly, just make that's what is restricted free agency for,
if not for a team to just exercise leverage and
be like, prove you're worth this.
Speaker 3: Before we go give you something.
Speaker 1: I am rooting more for Bulls fans here because even
I think there will be some that disagree that Josh
Giddy has a like not even a cult following, Like
there's just Josh Giddy supporters, which ye, the numbers he
puts up, you read them like they're they can be
video game esque. It's just I don't think if if
that's the deal, I think that'll be a better deal
than what they have Patrick Williams on right now, and
he's worth like eight percent of the salary cap. However,
I don't like, you don't look at it through the
lens of like it could have been worse, Like that
is the worst measuring stick possible. So I'm rooting for
Bulls fans to see management act capably. And I think
a number I'd be comfortable with. I'm lower on Giddy
than most, so I'm looking at like, okay, would I
pay him more than the mid level which is fifteen? Sure,
I'm gonna get a little uneasy if my goal is
to perform in the playoffs and I'm paying him twenty
plus million a year, even though that's fifteen percent of
the salary cap or whatever it is.
Speaker 3: I think that's right.
Speaker 2: I think, like, yeah, it if you just look at
it and it's like, is he gonna average twenty three
to ten and eight? Like is that can and then
like a lot of fans, a lot of teams will
look at that and say, that's a thirty million dollar player.
It's just like you have to think, like, well, just
just one not like ten level, like one level deeper,
and ask yourself, like, what does investing this level of
money in Josh Giddy mean for the rest of our roster?
Like it's a finite resource game, and if you have
Giddy in this prominent of a position, you just have
to figure out a lot of trickier stuff with the
other guys on the floor than you do with Like
if it's Kobe White, that's gonna make thirty million, it's
like cool, Like nothing's coming off the table.
Speaker 3: He's a lead guard. He's gonna score. Yeah, we maybe
need a better.
Speaker 2: Defender next to him, But it's like, well, that's priced
into normal sized point guards. But half the time anyway,
Giddy's just like just the complicating factors are just like
and so many they're just more.
Speaker 1: It's not like, and let's use Cody White as an example,
it's not like we're waiting to see how this scales
to the playoffs. Like we know what happens when Josh
Giddy gets to the play Granted it's only been twice now,
but it's not like was it twice? Was it only
just once? No, they've been there twice. Right.
Speaker 2: The point is we know because like smart teams guard
him a certain way, and like, I gyeah, okay, if
if the Bulls like win their playing games, because Josh
Giddy is like nine for fourteen from three in both
of them because he's getting ignored and he just beats
that strategy, all right, great, I'm just like, I don't
think that's the way you're gonna win series. I don't
think that's the way you're gonna build like a great offense.
Speaker 3: It doesn't.
Speaker 2: It's just yeah, that's probably enough on Giddy. We're pretty
negative on him.
Speaker 1: Well, and it was just once because they made the
playoffs this year, as they lost in the play in
the previous year and sub twenty minutes per game. Next
up on the board, Quentin Grimes. Grant, who I know
you have questions for me. I'm just gonna open this
with a question for you. Yeah, should he be well? Okay, One,
he basically has to play the rest of the way
to qualify for awards because you can only have a
certain amount of games as part of your sixty five
under twenty minutes, and he had a bunch of under
twenty minute The rules need to change, by.
Speaker 3: The way, they're so stupid.
Speaker 2: Every second I learn more about them, that's they're increasingly stupid.
Speaker 1: So I think he needs to basically play because I
was thinking in my head, if the Sixers really want
to juice their tank, let him get to sixty five
games and then you shut him down because he'll still
have qualified for Most Improved Player. But it's one his
case is predominantly made the second half of the season,
so like to shut him down? Does it at the service?
But also he just has too many games if you
leave it like that under twenty minutes. So if he's eligible,
do you think that he's a viable Most Improved Player candidate?
Or did he not do enough in Dallas because it
is encompassing the whole season, or do you look at
it and say, well, shit, the stuff he's doing in
Philly for this half year, like that matters more than
any other leaps that we've seen.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's weird for a couple reasons.
Speaker 2: One is like, most improved is usually not like we've
talked about how hazy the criteria.
Speaker 3: For that are.
Speaker 2: It's usually not like within the course of the season,
like who's improved the most, it's like versus last year.
So it's like we're really talking about, like you said,
the post All Star break sixers port of his season.
Just yeah, like the improvement over the first half is nuts,
which is so I don't know what to do with
that with like an in season improvement. And two, this
is the core question for him, is like is this.
Speaker 3: Is this actually just.
Speaker 2: Him playing more and playing in environments where there are
no stakes, like you know what I mean. That's what
we're here to talk about, is like how much stock
do we put in this? Because you would say, if
you're making the most improved case for him, which I
think you could, you'd say, like what he's doing.
Speaker 3: Is very different.
Speaker 2: It's not like he's just shooting more of the same
kinds of shots or just like playing forty minutes in
this role that he used to play twenty five. It's
just like the self creation. This is where I was
gonna ask you, the self creation feels pretty new to me.
Like the amount of on ball stuff he's doing was
was certainly not happening like say in Dallas or Detroit,
Like was was there any hint at this, like say
with the Knicks, because you've watched the Knicks more than me,
but like, are like, are you as surprise by the
Quentin Grimes on the ball stuff as I am?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean yes, because there were hints of it
in New York where he would dribble like going downhill
or out of threes and it would actually be infuriating,
and it was. He also had that one complaint where
it's you know, it's tough not to work on the
ball basically, so you could always sense there was that
part of his game, but it was never anywhere near
this level. And I actually have a stat on that.
And this is, by the way, this is for the
ent So if you break it down to pre deadline
post deadline, or let's say I broke it down pre
being traded to the Sixers, twenty eight point seven percent
of his made baskets went unassisted. That number on the
Sixers is up to fifty one point four percent of
his makes have gone unassisted. However, when you start to
look at the entire season, this is the thing that
made me wonder if he should be featuring more prominently
in that discussion, Over three hundred and forty five players
have played at least five hundred minutes this year. Nobody
has increed preased their self created shot making efficiency in
the aggregate a larger share than Quinton Grimes. That's the
entire year.
Speaker 2: Well, I have a related when we kind of went
about this the same way, Like I was looking at
assisted twos because I just keep seeing him like get
bucket like inside the arc buckets on his own. So
he was always like a sixty to seventy for five
percent guy, like, which is to say, you know, two
to three out of every four two point shots he
made were assisted, were set up. So that's like for
a guard that's not great, like that's that's a pretty
dependent score. Thirty eight and a half percent of his
twos have been assisted with the Sixers, So it's like
he's just doubled the number of like get your own
buckets that he that he was generally averaging for his career.
So yeah, like same different way to the same point,
Like this is a real thing that he's actually been
good at, and I like, then we're just talking about
sustainability and like really one of the core questions related
to that is like the team dynamic on the Sixers,
Like is there room for this because you're gonna be
built around Maxi and McCain, two smallish guards that you
have to make defensive sort of cover ups for, and
like Grimes is I mean among what he's undersized, Like
it don't scaling up?
Speaker 1: Yeah, Like defensively he might be fine at his position,
I think, but you don't want him scaling up too much.
So what is it?
Speaker 2: Let's let's grant that this is real. I guess that
he he or he's close to this in terms of
like a self sufficient creator, Like do you think there's
actually bandwidth on a healthy I mean there's the if
the healthy Sixers team that we see next year.
Speaker 1: So interestingly enough, I do, because so the Jared McCain
of it all, I guess could complicate it because between
him and Grimes, I haven't seen enough of. Like, Okay,
Quentin Grimes is averaging eight point eight potential assist per
game with the Sixers. That's way up above what he
was a Dallas, but I haven't seen I've seen some
nice passes from him, and like coming out of the
pick and roll, he's gotten less efficient in Philly because
I think when he really needs to break down and
try to set up everybody else, he's probably overtaxed. But
if you look at what the Sixers are dealing with
Paul George injured and getting older, Joel Embiid, like, you
have to figure out a way to conserve him, not
just by load managing his appearances, but load managing him
during games. If you have someone else who can generate
his own shot and at least make the simple passes.
That actually I think helps because Joel Embiid and Paul George,
I would say, are two stars where they can scale down.
With Embiid if he's fully healthy, no, you don't want
him to scale down, but if you want him to
move on defense and you just want him to be healthy,
like him doing more pick and pop stuff or pick
and roll stuff with Quenton Grimes, rather than having him
create a ton of his own looks or bring the
ball up or attack like from the outside in. And
then we know that Paul George because I think Paul
George probably wants to scale.
Speaker 3: Down, like I think everybody wants that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I think there is room for it. I
just don't know. I would wonder how you figure it
out defensively then, because if embiid is embiid, okay, fine,
But like you traded away Cayleb Martin, you do have
Justin Edwards here, like you need another wing defender. I
think if you want to play two of McCain, Grimes
and Maxi basically at all times.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think too, Like the financial component of it,
he's going to be a restricted free agent. What are
you willing to pay for a guy that like Grimes?
I guess maybe he starts over McCain, but like, certainly
there's going to be a stagger there between. It's two
of those three guys can be on the floor. I
don't think all three can unless you're really playing against
a small opponent, Like what.
Speaker 3: Is what is that worth?
Speaker 2: And then like, if not the Sixers, does he just
go take the money with another team, go to Brooklyn
and be like, now, hey guys, now I average like
twenty seven, five and five, it's the new Quentin Grime.
Speaker 1: Well, if so, if you're here's it, well, two questions.
Do you think, whether it's the Sixers or another team, like,
he will get at least the non tax Pawerman level,
which is fourteen and change right.
Speaker 3: I would be very surprised if he got less than that.
Speaker 1: Now, if you're the Nets or just a team in
a vacuum, would you rather pay him or cam Thomas? Oh?
Speaker 2: Great question, because yeah, oh man, is it wrong to
say Grimes?
Speaker 3: I think I might pick Grimes.
Speaker 1: I would pick Grimes. I will say I think where
Cam Thomas really has the edges, like we now have
a larger sample size of him just making ridiculous shots.
Grimes is the better shooter, like like off the ball,
and he's the better defender. I think cam Thomas what's
interesting is he's at this point to me, the better passer.
So I think that's why it becomes more of a debate.
I think I'd rather just have the Like it feels
like Cam Thomas. If he isn't essential part of your offense,
there's a chance that he's just not useful, where with
Grimes there's still he could in theory. I guess progress
down to being a three and D guy.
Speaker 2: One other thing I wanted to talk about, which is
like there's no right answer, I don't think, but like
do you make anything? And maybe we could go through
the reasons he's changed teams, Like do you make anything
of four teams in four years for a guy that's
obviously talented?
Speaker 3: Like does that?
Speaker 2: Like when like leaving the Knicks was just like it
was a money thing. Same thing with Detroit to Dallas.
You know, we all let's let's take we think Hardaway
is better talking from Detroit's perspective, Like.
Speaker 1: So I actually asked someone about the Detroit thing and
the belief there was that his knee apparently was just cooked. Okay,
with New York I think that they I this is
unpopular to say, I think they botched it. They've proven
One of Tom Tibodau's flaws is that he doesn't know
how to develop young talent for the most part, while
trying to pursue wins like Deuce McBride is kind of
an outlier. We even dating back, this is the example.
I always go to, think, we have Jimmy Butler in Chicago,
how long it kind of took him to enter the
main part of the fold. He eventually got there, but
it wasn't so the Knicks botched that on my end,
like he had a doubt he was in he was injured,
had a down shooting year, but good teams figure it out,
and like Dallas had kind of figured it out, and
then he apparently wanted no part of Dallas, which I
don't blame him, and so I think it is a
little bit And if you start to hear things about
he actively looked to leave Philly because he didn't want
to be with Paul George and Beiden Matt, that's when
you start to okay, the but we he hasn't been
in a situation where I don't think there's at least
some type of an explanation as to why from him.
Speaker 3: I think I lean that way too.
Speaker 2: It is just it's pretty unusual for a guy to
have this many teams before he gets to restricted free agency,
and then we're still talking about like, oh my god,
he might clean up and restricted free agency, So that's
like a rare set of circumstances.
Speaker 1: I will say too, the other thing that I this
just supports your kind of point about his two pointers
he's shooting, I like, because you're watching him inside the
arc and these aren't always just open paths to the
basket fifty seven percent on nearly ten drives per game
in Philly. Among everyone who's had as many drives during
this span, only Deroz and his Zion are also shooting
fifty six percent or better from the floor. So I
think what's also interesting is that he's scoring in all
these kind of different ways that it doesn't that make
him in theory, even though a lot of it's happening
on the ball, sholdn't make him more adaptable to a
larger ecosystem, because it's not just oh, he's doing all
these like you know, daring do handles into pointers. No,
like he's getting downhill, or he's blowing pass guys whor
we've seen him break down set defenses. So I think
that's why I'm optimistic that if I'm a team that
wants to tie up my non like if that's even
a question, but like even if it's like if you're
a team that wants to talk sign and trade or something.
I really believe that Grinds can be a functioning part
of a better team within a larger ecosystem.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think, I think.
Speaker 2: And by the way, because we again looked up similar things,
he was averaging four drives a game in twenty three
minutes before the break over ten and thirty two after
the So it's like it's not just always added a
third more minutes and a third more so, he's like
more than double his drives in like a third more minute.
Speaker 3: So I think it comes down to fit for him.
Speaker 2: I don't, so I have fewer questions about like, so
I think realistically he's gonna settle in somewhere between what
he's doing now and what he did for most of
his career, like maybe come closer closer to this, Yeah,
hot take, He's he's not that good, and he's wasn't that.
Speaker 3: He was never bad.
Speaker 2: But it's just like, I don't think he's gonna be
a guy that's regularly getting you four plus on a
decent team. But I do think he can be a
major contributor just in the right right spot.
Speaker 3: And the right spot is.
Speaker 2: Like there is a big wing or two that make
it so he doesn't have to guard you know, Jason
Tatum or Jalen Brown like that, that kind of that
kind of thing. I feel fine with him on twos
and some ones right like, but I don't know about sizing.
Speaker 1: Up uh final question on him? So what is the
the average annual value or percentage of the cap every
you want to frame it? That would make you? Because
part of this is we're saying that this is not
just Quentin Grimes Quitmark is playing at an all star
level right now. We're saying that that's probably not going
to be his new normal. So what's the number that
gets you? I don't want to say queezy, but okay,
now I have to think whether I want to pay
Quentin Grimes that?
Speaker 2: Yeah, well I would would Could we agree? More questions
answered with questions? Can we agree that, like in a vacuum,
he's probably a solid to above average starting shooting guard, right.
Speaker 1: I would say, like he's no worse than like a
really good first guy off the bench. Okay, feels like
his floor.
Speaker 2: So I think by that logic, I start to get
uncomfortable at like anything like twenty five a year I'm like,
I don't know about that, but like he's played better
than that lately, so so like even a twenty five
million a year would be like probably acceptable. I think
anywhere from like the eighteen to twenty two twenty three
million a year with the normal raises I would would
not be If he got that, I'd be like, yeah,
I get it, Like that might actually be a bargain.
But you go much beyond that, then I start to
get more nervous about the fit and the just the
size of the sample, Like, we can't just discount that,
so I don't know what about you.
Speaker 1: So I fifteen percent of the salary cap with a
number like that, so that's twenty three and a half
million next year.
Speaker 3: We're in the same neighborhood.
Speaker 1: So it's I think once you get there, if you're
going to pay him more, you have to believe that
this is like one of the two or three best
players on your like can be elevate develop into one
of the two or three best players on you, Like
you have to believe that there's more upside to plumb
than what we've seen right now. I think if you
want to go above that number, yeah, that or it's
a wildly short term deal and the nets were like hey,
two for sixty or like two for seventy whatever. Our
next player, Grant might be familiar to you. His name
is mos this Moody.
Speaker 2: I will note that you suggested Moody for me. I
think so because there's gonna be another Warriors player here too. Uh,
We're going like this is a little smaller scale because
Moody is has developed into I think over the I mean,
he's been pretty close to this all year, but now
that he's finally playing pretty regularly getting some starts, looks
to me like a legitimate three and D wing that
I think he's averaging under just barely under ten points
a game on the season, like after the break, it's twelve,
you know, three boards, couple assists sixty three percent true shooting,
super low usage fifteen percent. So like, he's not someone
that is creating his own shots. He's not someone that is,
you know, drawing a bunch of fouls. He is very
much a dependent scorer and shooter, but is a good
three point shooter. I think like he really is someone
I think could settle in for his career and like
the fort right around forty percent. He's he's under that now,
you know, thirty eight thirty nine has been kind of
where he's hovered for the year.
Speaker 3: I think that's real.
Speaker 2: He's not someone that's creating his own threes. He's gonna
make the open ones, good cutter, good defender, good length,
just like has become what everybody sort of thought he was.
I think, just maybe everybody at Steve Kerr was the
last to really finally accept it. It's just like a
good three and D wing that you can start on
like a playoff team. So it really has just been
about the volume, I think because his impact on winning
I think has been pretty though inconsistent, and maybe that's
not his fault that it was inconsistent because his playing
time was inconsistent. I think he's just a reliable, like
good starter now that there's not a lot of upside.
I don't think like this is about what he's gonna be,
but it's pretty good, So I do.
Speaker 3: I do buy.
Speaker 2: Him as like a plus starter that fits in on
a lot, Like he might be someone that like, when
you start, who's the three and D guy that everyone
should trade for? Who's the three and D free agent
in a couple of years. Well, we'll talk about.
Speaker 1: His extension three and thirty nine. Doesn't that look like gold?
Speaker 2: It's a heist, Yeah, it's a heist. Do you can
pay that guy twenty five for that player type?
Speaker 1: And he's making less than Patrick Williams, Like, let's just.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, and honestly, like Andrew Wiggins, moving on now,
Jimmy Butler came aboard, But like Andrew, he's doing a
lot of what Andrew Wiggins did more efficiently. Not he's
not the volume score Wiggins was. He's not gonna go
get you the like pull up two with two seconds
on the shot clock that Wiggins could occasionally. I don't
know how valuable that shot is, honestly, but like he's
stepped into that role and certainly, like value wise, he's
more valuable dollar for dollars to production than Wiggins was,
which is like Wiggins was an All Star one time.
Speaker 3: That's like a big step.
Speaker 1: I've been most impressed where it feels like they haven't
missed a beat defensively with him, because that was always
kind of my bigger question for Moses Moody was can
he's like if he's gonna handle the assignments that he's
now been handling, even with Jimmy Butler there because Andrew
Wiggins is gone. What does that look like? Defensively? I
think he's looked really really good. Yeah, like there's just
like he looks just gritty and kind of locked in.
Doesn't really feel like he's ever getting burned, whether it's
on or off the ball. And they look they have Draymond.
They have a good infrastructure around him right now. But
now if you can throw that in with like some
level of offensive consistency that we've seen from him, I
will also say this might be smaller scale, but it's
it's important because it's on a team that all of
a sudden has championship aspirations. And it's just it's an
interesting situation because what you and I have said this
is repeating ourselves. Whatever he's played or strung together minutes,
even when they're not the best, you never came away thinking, oh,
he doesn't belong in an NBA rotation. It just so
see for some reason in Golden State, he's never had
that opportunity. And the final thing, just because I don't
have a ton to add to what you did, the
three point volume I think has been really big for
their offense too. Where he's at like over this stretch
since February first, think he's at like seven plus attempts
per thirty six minutes or whatever, at least close to that.
You might even want that to be higher. But there
does seem to be more decision like quicker decision making
from him, where it's even when he's not shooting, he's
getting rid of the ball quicker.
Speaker 3: That's absolutely right.
Speaker 2: And you can look point at the touch time before
the All Star break two point two seconds per touch
and one and a half dribbles. It's down in a
bigger role now to two point oh seven just you know,
not a huge change and one point three four dribbles
per touch. So he's making decisions more quickly to your point,
and I one hundred percent agree that as a shooter,
like one of the hardest things to do on the
Curry Draymond Warriors is to like come in and feel
like it's okay to shoot like that.
Speaker 3: You see guys constantly. Moody really fell victim to this.
Speaker 2: The next Warriors guy we're going to talk about did
not have an issue with this, but like you can
see guys thinking like should I shoot this because if
we wait three more seconds and make one more pass,
steph might spring open, and like everyone knows, that's a
better shot. Moody really was hesitant pretty frequently, and he
is letting it fly more aggressively without like with less hesitation.
Now I think he could even scale that up. Like,
no one's mad at Moses Moody taking a like semi
contested three because he has demonstrated he's like a high
thirties three point guy. And and the alternative of him
like upfaking and putting it on the floor, that's a
worse alternative, Like that is a hole still where he
just like he's not someone you want dribbling unless it's
like really really like constrained.
Speaker 3: So yeah, I.
Speaker 2: Think I think there's room for improvement, and I think
like mostly it's just three point aggression really from him.
Speaker 1: Uh So, And by the way, that's big, because do
you think we still cut Like is there a I
guess ideally, is there a possibility that he becomes like
the most important player in what we would consider either
the best or finishing line up in a postseason setting.
Speaker 3: Well, I would say that there's not because there's three.
Speaker 1: Locks for that right, there's Draymond, Jimmy and Steph.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 2: I think what's changed with Moody is and you made
me remember this. What I used to say was, well,
the reason he gets jerked around so much is because like,
well they need quality X and it's like, oh, it's
shooting well, like, well, buddy Heal's on the team, so
he's gonna go in. Or they need like, you know,
versatile defense, like well Kyle Anderson's good at that and like.
Speaker 3: He's gone now.
Speaker 2: Or they need someone to I don't know, guard a
point guard, and it's like, well they got Gary Payton,
Like that guy's as good as it gets on the back.
So like there was always someone that could do the
thing the Warriors needed better than Moody. But now he's
gotten so capable at all those things where it's like,
well he's just totally a balanced two way guy and
so we'll play him over all of those players. So
from that perspective, he gives them like a completeness at
the position that you don't get with Healed, with Peyton,
with like whoever else you want to throw out there.
So so yeah, I mean he's never gonna matter more
than the three guys you mentioned, but like he does
provide them with sort of a like just the full
two way profile that they really you know, teams kill
for players like this, where it's just he's not taking
anything off the table on either end. So so yeah,
I think he is becoming hugely important, also.
Speaker 1: Hugely important, maybe the most important player on the Warriors.
Speaker 2: And huge So the thing I said about like hesitanting
three point shooting has never applied to quit like he.
So I'm convinced that he got called up from Santa
Cruz and was told, if you don't shoot it every
time you touch it, you're getting pulled out of the game,
because like that's.
Speaker 3: Why you're here.
Speaker 2: You're not here for anything else. Just be a seven
footer that shoots threes. And he's shooting forty three percent
on nine point three three point attempts per thirty six
if you filter out guys who played less than one
hundred minutes, so just like some you know, someone that
came in, played one game, got up like four to
threes in twenty minutes or whatever, like filter those guys out.
He has the highest three point percentage of anyone in
the league, averaging over nine attempts per thirty six, Like
he is a legitimate, really really good three point shooter
that does not hesitate and understands the assignment. So like
Quentin Post has legitimate NBA offensive value and you see it,
like against Toronto he comes in and hits six threes
and like unlocks the offense. Like he just really is
a true weapon. He is not good at really anything else,
or has not proved to be good at anything else.
So talking from like a buy sell perspective, I buy
that Quinton Post is one of the best three point
shooting bigs in the league and will just be that
for as long as he's in the league. He's he
does get attacked defensively. He's not strong, he moves okay,
like he does look comfortable and like semi agile, and
like he knows what he wants to do on both ends.
It's just like he's a single He's a single skill
guy right now that's extremely.
Speaker 3: Valuable in small doses. I don't know if I'd go
much beyond that.
Speaker 2: And I think the playoffs are going to be really
interesting because like a guy like that with such a
demonstrated strength and so many demonstrated like weaknesses or like
things to potentially exploit.
Speaker 3: Is like, I don't know what happens in a playoff
rotation with him.
Speaker 1: How do you go about using him defensively? Because his
actual his RIM protection numbers since February first are pretty
good fifty five point one percent he's allowing is that
about which, by the way, I think is okay. If
this is the case, If you play him next to Draymond,
it streamlines what he's going to be responsible for defensively,
So it comes a lot more about positioning rather than
like anticipation and having to think through all these complicated possessions.
Especially you're not gonna have to worry about being the
primary backline communicator if Draymond is on the floor.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think he's been set up to succeed pretty well.
But for those reasons I think I do. Look, if
you're an opposing playoff team, you're just gonna involve him
in as many actions as you possibly can. Like, that's
that's gonna be the the mo you could. I forget
what game it was a couple of games ago. I
think Anthony Slater reported that Steph Curry was talking to
him during a timeout, saying like this has been my
whole career. You're gonna be targeted every time you're out there.
You just have to like stay in the fight because
there are stretches where it's it's tough for him and
the rim protection numbers. Like he does have stretches where
he'll block two or three shots and it's like, oh, okay,
that's a thing, like he might. I mean he's seven
feet tall, but like I think his rookie status, his size,
his like lack of heft, He's gonna be tested constantly.
I don't think he's up for it, like at a
high volume kind of kind of clip. So then the
question is just is he bringing enough value on the
other end to like, you know, net out as a
positive so far, he has the most interesting thing to
me about him is it despite him being just like
lights out, almost eighty percent of his threes have been uncontested,
which is like, how, like how is he not being guarded.
I think it's fascinating to imagine what the offense looks
like when he does get that level of respect if
that happens, Because I don't think it's a successful game
plan to say, let's make Quentin Post beat us from deep,
cause it's like he's going to be eight for twelve
from three, Like that's just he's going to be that
good if you leave him open. So what happens when
you assign a defender to him that has to stay tight?
Like what kind of space does that open up for
Jimmy Butler in the lane or for Steph and Draymond
to play pick and roll? Like there really could be
gains if Post does eventually get guarded, which like it's
nuts to me that he hasn't been so far.
Speaker 1: Well we didn't. You kind of just describe the reason
why he hasn't been though, is because look at what
that would then open up. Maybe when you have Jimmy
Butler now too on this team, where okay, think about
the rim pressure and the foul drawing, just live with
or maybe it is a reputation thing or lack thereof
of or he's shooting this from three, but it at
the end of the day, it's Quenton Post, it's not Yeah,
so they're just will live with him going that. We
kind of just talked about this with Josh Getty, except
there's a difference between going, oh, he's four of seven
versus eight of twelve, so like the volume will and
he's also it's at a position where it's more nominalists
where hitting threes.
Speaker 3: Ooh, right, is he supposed to think?
Speaker 2: I think, one hang up, we've probably spent too much
time on him, but he's just he's an interesting player.
One hang up is like, I'm not sure he's proved
outside of a few isolated instances that a defense needs
to put a big on him. I think, you you know,
it's the kind of thing where it's like, let's put
a guard on him and then dare the warriors to like, well,
they switched, so let's let's see if he can post
up this like six or five guy, because that's a
win for the defense if you're suddenly running your offense
through a Quinton post like low block touch, like that's
that's what you want as a defense. So I think,
like there are gonna be some give and takes and
some like you know, strategy and then counter strategy, assuming
he sees any playoff minutes of like, okay, we put
our shooting guard on him, what are you gonna do?
You know, maybe it's just shoot over him. But it's
also like it's goading, like suboptimal offense out of the Warriors.
Speaker 1: I think potentially this last part of here analysis really
got the juices in one of my dog's blood flowing.
He's like in that. You started like going into like
the minutia of the Quinton post effect and Wade is
he's loving it in the back. I just took a
picture of him. He gave a big stretch.
Speaker 3: He's ready and he understands it.
Speaker 1: Our next player is Zeke Naji, who this is? It's
not playing ya, what's that?
Speaker 3: He's a pariah?
Speaker 1: He's a Yeah, has not played so much the past
two games, and we've entered like more of the like
we were talking about, you know, smaller scale type of breakouts.
We've entered that portion of the podcast. The fact that
he's playing it all though, I think it's been a
big deal. The way they've used him defensively feels a
lot more versatile than a year's past, where like, okay,
we've seen him dig into some big guys. He's actually
done pretty well as a rim protector this year, but
a lot of stuff he's doing is a helper and
we've seen him more on the perimeter and I think
that's where he probably gives them their most value right now.
He's because I do believe he can be an excellent
help defender and he's gone up against Yeah, like Zion
kind of ate him up at points, but he when
they were playing the Magic, he spent a lot of
time on Palo Bancaro. Orlando was a team average point
six to four points per possession. I know it's the Magic,
but like on possessions where he was guarding ben Caro,
so I think that that's like really good. We've also
seen him give good spot possessions against if he switched
on to an SGA or winds up on SGA or
even a J dub. That defensive value I think is
really big for a Nuggets team, Like you don't really
know how to feel about their defense just yet. Like, Okay,
Aaron Gordon's missed a bunch of time this year, but
if you have Zeke Nauji defending the way that we've
seen him at least like over the past month and
a half or so for the most part, and then
with an Aaron Gordon and then being able to like
move the like Christian Brown on this team and Peyton Watson,
I think it does some of the problem you do
run into it offensively. With him, I don't view him
as like a great screener. He will give some second
efforts on the glass, it's the three point shooting. He's
over forty percent on catch and shoot threes during this stretch.
He just doesn't take a ton of them, and he's
shooting under forty nine percent on layups. And so when
you're not gonna be like kind of the best finisher
all the time and then you're not the best screener,
that utility gets like can be awkward. And I don't
know how his value is going to hold to them
in the playoffs, because I do think they could still
use some secondary front. Even if you think Aaron Gorn
is going to soak up all the backup center minutes
like okay, great, there could still be like a little
bit of a vacuum there for Zeke Naji to soak
up important minutes. I think he's still going to have
to continue to show more offensively for the most like,
at least, I think you could say this about a
lot of players in the Nuggets. I'd probably want him
getting up more threes, like on a permanent basis, would
be because the way that again, that he's buying large defended.
I think you can argue that there will be certain
matchups where it's all right, like he might make more sense.
He definitely could make more sense for them than Peyton
Watson in certain matchups, just if Peyton Watson's going to
be all over the place offensively at points. So I
just I haven't it's a pin in what he's doing
because we everyone had him written off as one of
the worst contracts in the league. What are the Nuggets doing?
And now he's provided some utility? But is it are
the Nuggets viewing it through the lens of oh, it's
already fading.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's the thing. I was just looking up as
you're talking.
Speaker 2: It's like I was gonna frame my take on like
how old is he like, because if he's twenty two,
he's twenty four, so it's like at twenty four, you're
pretty close to what you're gonna be. So, but the
issue I want to ask you, like, is it possible
that I know, I mean, the numbers have been what
they are, so like you can't say that he's always
never been given a chance, Like his production just hasn't
been like worthy of a bigger role.
Speaker 3: But do you think there's any like, is there.
Speaker 2: A possibility that, like, man, you're playing behind Jokic essentially,
and it's just like the Nuggets are never gonna like
really give you like a lot of rope, you know,
in that roles because it's like, well, we want him
out there, we want you'll catch out there as much
as possible, and Yoku just been super durable. Is there
any part of his like disappointing play to this point
because he is like shooting forty seven percent from three,
he's getting to the line more after the break. All
this stuff looks encouraging. Could it just be like something
about like there's just never been like like a sustained,
extended opportunity for him, or do you feel like what
he's doing now is like, oh no, he's only just
now playing well enough to justify like, you know, more opportunities.
Speaker 1: I think I think it's more so the latter I've
seen a lot of people blame Michael Malone that he
hasn't gotten here sooner. Maybe that maybe that comes down
to the mode of deployment, because he's not like when
you kind of he's still contesting like a pretty fair
weather percentage shots at the rim when he's on the court,
but they're not asking him to be the traditional big
man all the time. And I think that's where the
approach was more so odd defensively for him, because he's
always been I'm trying to think of, like what's a
good analog, but where we look at them and it's
like Grant Williams, for example, has always been better as
like this switch big man or someone who might defend
like the small and even he doesn't move his feet
like znag So it's a bad example. But it's like
you look at guys and you think, oh, they can
immediately play the pure five, and I just don't think
that was ever supposed to be his role. But what
were the Nuggets supposed to do? They just lean more
on DeAndre Jordan, like.
Speaker 2: It probably wouldn't be on a team if not for
like he's just a good locker room guy for this team.
Speaker 1: So I I there's probably like z Ignogi I don't
think is shown enough. But like in the minutes that
you watched him, it was like he wasn't hitting threes
like we've seen those percentages be all over the place,
So that would have been a way for him to
provide value as well. So I think I think what
is happening now is important because it provides a road
map to what he can be. I just don't know.
And now there's almost a there's proof of concept, and
I wonder, now is that more value to the Nuggets
rotation or is it more valuable for when they're looking
to move him over the offseason.
Speaker 3: Yeah, hard to say.
Speaker 2: I do think, like, I don't know how well he
would have to play to take backup center minutes from
Aaron Gordon in the playoffs, Like we may just not
see a whole lot of nause once once we get
to you know, elimination time, but really we will. I
think him and Gordon together is not like the worst idea.
Speaker 1: I actually like I like that in theory, like space
the hell out of your offense during those non yokic minutes.
And we're also talking about how many minutes per game
in the playoffs Grant eight at most? Maybe Yeah, So
would you buy or sell this though? Uh?
Speaker 2: I mean I'm buying, Like I'm buying that somewhere in
there there's like this version of nause or it's like
a slightly better one, which I didn't think before.
Speaker 3: I thought I was kind of sold on, like that
was just it's not gonna happen for him.
Speaker 1: We maybe it's a better frame it whose quote unquote
many breakout is more important his or just gentent pickets
who injuries kind of paved the way for him to
get at some run And I think, look, he's an
assistant turnover ratio of four since February first, he has
contrary to what like he's done in the past, he's
shooting over thirty nine percent from three during this stretch.
I think the things the two things that have impressed
me the most with him, though he is like if
you get screened by Jalen Pickett, like you're there's gonna
be a mark left, and he's he does look strong,
but like you don't see it, but like it's increasingly
becoming clear if you get screened by Jailen Pickett, oh shit,
that's gonna hurt. And like he's been and I think
this is probably an extension of that. He's just grittier
on defense than I ever thought that he was gonna be.
And so I don't look at him and think that
he could be like a capslock game manager for them,
but sort of is a nice change of pace option
if you don't want to operate at full throttle with
the Russell Westbrook and maybe you're looking for someone who
can like cause Russ is gonna be better with the
off ball movement, but if you want someone as kind
of like, oh, if he's gonna screen or maybe do
you trust him at points to hit the wide open
threes more than Russell Westbrook. I don't know. This is
just another thing I've a pinion to where, Okay, like
when it matters, I don't know how much these two
would play in the playoffs. I do think if I
had to pick that the stuff Nausey has shown, and
maybe again I'm overstating, like a couple of weeks ago,
I think the stuff that Nausey is shown is gonna
end up being of more use to the Nuggets than
having Jaye and pick it.
Speaker 2: I think I agree, even though like just kind of
made the case of like Nausey's minutes potentially shrinking for me,
like the two point shooting is not good enough for
even after the break really for a I guess he's
like he's a two mainly right, Like I don't know
how much time has he spent on the ball if
you break it down play by play, I mean he
gets some Well, no, he's been mostly a point.
Speaker 3: Guard this year. Is where they listened to.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was gonna say, so, it's just like and
he's pretty good at maintaining his dribble. Yeah, so I
think I don't look at him and say, oh, that's
a great passer, but it's someone who I think has
protected the ball and like will at least maintain his
dribble until maybe something opens up.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I wonder how vaud he's So, he's an interesting player.
I haven't really thought about Gleen pick it that much.
Like how much does the shooting matter? Cause the three
point shooting is you know, he was solid last year,
he's over forty percent this year?
Speaker 1: Is that?
Speaker 2: Is that the carrying skill or at least as far
as the Nuggets are concerned, And like, will we play
this guy?
Speaker 1: Is it? Is it that? Or is it?
Speaker 3: Like?
Speaker 2: No, he needs to actually be on the ball, like
doing stuff with backups, Like what cause if you're playing
with Jokic, you're not on the ball. Like again, certainly
if Murray's out there too, so you're really just reduced
to being a spot shooter that you need to defend
and set screens and stuff like.
Speaker 1: I think if you want him to be a part
of quote unquote some core lineups, it would be the shooting,
just because I think, I don't think you're ever gonna
rep because Russell Westbrook is more explosive. You're not gonna
replicate what he can do away from the ball. And
then if the shoot, and what's the way to earn
minutes on this team would be if the Nuggets don't
feel great about because teams are just leaving Russell Westbrook
open from three and they're the Nuggets of Like, you're
gonna have to live with that and hope he makes them.
If JA don't pick at a shooting thirty nine plus
percent on five plus attempts per thirty six minutes or something,
maybe that gets you thinking and then he gives you
like if you're looking to break down a defense with
your half court offense, Russell Westbrook is definitely the better
individual score. But I wonder if it's part of like
you're looking to table set the rest of the unit,
you might prefer Jael and Pickets like patience there or
I don't know, it's that that's why it's so tough
to like kind of figure out, well, okay, what does
this mean if you're trying to expand upon his role?
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's a victim of like it's you know, there
are costs to playing with like a great, a truly
great like on ball guy like Jokic, which is that like,
I guess you better get good at cutting and spot
like non on ball stuff because you're just never gonna
have it.
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think he's been. He's been. So does
does Julian Strawther like have a place going for?
Speaker 2: Like?
Speaker 3: I mean, clearly he does. He's played like a fair amount,
but like, I don't know how many of this type
of guy do you need?
Speaker 1: I honestly, but it's kind of just like trying to
figure out who I guess, like are there eighth or
ninth guys in the rotation at this point is where
it gets weird. And also a lot of this stuff
is it could be the byproduct of who's like playing
and not playing. So like you see Jalen Pickets minutes,
like when you have Jamal Murray and Russell Westbrook available,
they're not gonna he's not playing as many minutes we
saw Peyton Watson come back and like thee Nausey's minutes,
like those are gonna be more up debates. So I
think Julian Strowther in theory is the guy who could
actually still play because of the three point volume. He's
he's not like forward size like Nausey, but he's not
like he's he's bigger than Jalen Pickett. But I think
both of these guys are are better. I guess their
peaks have impressed me more than Julian Strother's peaks this season,
if that makes any sense. I don't know how good
you feel about that.
Speaker 2: So what you're saying is the Nuggets were smart to
just let CACP and Bruce Brown go and just get
cheaper even though they're a contender, because they knew, they
knew they had the talent pipeline to replace them.
Speaker 1: In their defense, they couldn't keep Bruce Brown. I know
the stuff is still, I maintained. I went on a
Nuggets podcast a couple of weeks ago, and a lot
of the listeners were looking for mea culpa for me
about things I said about Calvin Booth. I was like, well,
it's not coming. I think case, people have just had
a better season when you're looking at the quality of
shots he's getting in Orlando, in Denver, and he's still
really good defensively. That being said, Calvin Booth has been
vindicated to some extent because as a picket is gotten
by the way, I don't think Pickett was ever supposed
to be like a real factor. So that guy was that, Yeah,
it was Zeke naj was the one. And that's like,
that's not a Calvin Booth draft pick So like that's fair.
But they've been like the Nuggets waiting or holding on
to these guys and you wouldn't have been able to
they were trying to move Nase. So that was that say,
but like giving these guys minutes, I think is that
we've shown, oh there's pathways to utilities. And I think,
if anything, if I had to guess, I don't really
know how to feel about you olen picket because he
makes no money. Zeke Naji's development is bigger because I
think it makes him easier to move if nothing else,
if the Nuggets decide that hey, he's most valuable to
us as cutting our tax bill or using his matching
salary for someone else.
Speaker 3: All right, Do you have anybody else or was that
the end of the list.
Speaker 1: We have a couple more players, So we have Isaiah
Collier and you know what, let's spoil it here. We
have three jazz players coming up Grant, so we should
ask about which one is kind of impress you the most.
I know you have some strong feelings about Collier. I
will say before I throw it to you, his swing
skill is going to just be his efficiency from the floor.
It is all over the place. He's not there defensively yet,
but I think you look at him and you can
kind of see like the tenacity in the level. Oh
you could see him being at least for his position.
That's not going to be like he'll be a quality defender.
I will say, it would not shock me. This is
what I want to drive home. With Isaiah Collier. We
fast forward like three years. If you told me he
was one of like the three to eight best passers
in the NBA, I'd look at you and say, yeah, okay,
I go. He has thrown some just like ridiculous when
he gets going downhill, and just like the things he
can see with his live dribble, he is he is
a heart.
Speaker 2: Attack he's a I was gonna say, like, if you
told me Isaiah Collier led the league in assists in
three years, be like, yeah, all right, I.
Speaker 1: Guess Like was it like the line enough? I guess that.
Speaker 2: No, It's just he is such an unusual player though,
right Like I was trying to think of comps for him,
Like one, the shooting is like, well, I don't know,
like what you do with that, so just just to
put a finer point on it. Since the All Star Break,
which has been like he's been better twenty nine percent
from three forty three percent overall. That's up from forty
one percent and twenty three percent before the break, Like
it's it's a giant like blinking be like, you can't
be a good NBA guard if that's how you shoot,
Like just we're done, So like that has to get better.
But the combination with what's set that aside, Like who's
the comp for this guy? Like if it's just if
he's an average shooter, I still don't know because like
the the frame is so unusual for a point, like
he's just like.
Speaker 3: A fire hydrant. And then Kyle Lowry is he seems
bigger than Lowry is. Do I have that wrong, Like
he just what is Collier? He's definitely I don't know.
Speaker 2: Maybe that's well, but Lowry was well, he wasn't always
a great shooter. And I don't know that Lowry was
this good a passer either, to be.
Speaker 1: Honest, like no, he was, he never he's Yeah, a
Collier is substantially six three.
Speaker 2: That's a and it's and his game is like downhill
like bull into the lane, make the right pass, like
that's I don't know who that is.
Speaker 1: That's a weird Julius Randall and Russell Westbrook.
Speaker 3: Smaller Julius Randall. That's interesting.
Speaker 1: I like that.
Speaker 2: So that's where I I hesitate to like buy into
all the positives of which he's got some because it's
like I don't know what the precedent is for a
player like this having like real success, but like sometimes
that's a good thing. Sometimes it's like, well that means
there's no answer for this guy because he's like a
unique combination of skills. But he I don't know what
to project for him other than to say, like you
led with like if he can't shoot it better, then
I don't know like what this is.
Speaker 3: But if he can shoot it like Okay, then then
the downhill.
Speaker 2: Stuff gets even nastier because if as it is, he's
getting into the lane with guys like just daring him
to drive and he still makes it happen.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think, look, we've seen there's probably been
like at least small like he's shooting seventy point five
percent in the restricted area since February. First. I think
that's so if he can be like a consistently strong finisher,
he's going to get to the basket. And so I
might be higher on his floor. Then it seems like
you are might it might be more dependent on the
personnel around him at that point, but as you said,
like with defense is keying in on him or like
he's just like bowling a China shot, like busting through
these barriers on the defensive end. And there's also I
think what's in string. There's like there's directionality to his
handle too, like it doesn't have straight b lines all
the time. So I think what they've discovered with him
as a playmaker, and I think the flashes he has
shown as a finisher at least give but it's going
to be like can he score from another level because
if he can't I to again, I don't know what
who would be the comp then at.
Speaker 3: That point, Yeah, I don't know that. I just looking
at the shot profile too, like.
Speaker 2: Over a third of his shots are from the in
that three to ten foot range engine he's like at
forty forty four percent, which is actually like I'm surprised
it's that high.
Speaker 3: I haven't watch's.
Speaker 1: Actually I would not have guessed it was that high.
Speaker 3: So yeah, I know I would have said lower.
Speaker 2: But that's way too many shots from that, like not
quite all the way to the rim range for someone
That's just like I don't think you want to live
that way.
Speaker 3: That's that you can't have.
Speaker 2: The three to ten footers be your your bread and butter.
So but then it's like, well, i'd like him to
shoot more replace those with threes that he's shooting under
thirty percent, And I don't know, like it Yeah, I'm not,
I'm not. I don't know out or pessimistic by any stretch.
It's just like there's just a threshold factor of like
can he be remotely decent as a shooter outside the
restricted area? And I have I don't know, like I
don't know yet.
Speaker 1: Next up from the Jazz is Kyle phil Powski. We
talked a little bit about him because he made both
of us had him on second team All Rookie right
at the three quarter mark. Uh. I can't say enough
good things about him offensively. I know the shooting numbers
were kind of if he coming out of college, but
I think you always I looked at from more. I
did the minimal scouting of him. It's felt like, okay,
like he will become a good shooter. He's still ironically
shooting sixty five percent from the foul lines in February first,
which is weird. Weird because he's shooting a trillion percent
from three during that span. It's actually forty seven point
one percent. I think what's impressed me the most and
like the scalability of a shooting for sure. This dude
runs the floor. He is like an effective field goal
rate of sixty eight in transition and so he's taking
like threes in transition. It's not just but he's good
at leaking out or just running the floor in general,
getting end to end. So like being able to open
up those opportunities at the rim, the passing, the live
dribble passing, Like no, this is not Nikola Jokic esque,
but it's like, oh no, he's finding like he's working
on kickouts. He doesn't have this one track mine and
it's oh wait, he's putting the ball on the floor.
There's some I don't think you should ever feature him
this way, And because I think pretty clearly the Jazz
view him as a four, the center numbers are not good.
They've tried it, I think you don't have to worry
about him like kind of feeding him in the post
as much like he has some Oh he can hit
a turn around Jay. There's like a bunch of different
layers to this guy's offensive game. And I look at
him and I'm wondering, is this a starting caliber front
court player? I think a lot's just gonna come down
to the defensive end. I don't he's not laterally quick enough.
He can't hold up at the center position, so that
would be that's a very easy way to say, no,
he's gonna have to come off the bench. But I've
been the scope of his offensive game is a lot wider,
especially this early on, than I ever thought it was
gonna be.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think he is a starting caliber big, not
a center. So a four that's part of it. It's like, well,
threes and fours are like kind of the same now
in most lineups. But like, offensively, I think he's there.
Speaker 3: Just the shooting is what it is.
Speaker 2: Like, it's he's gotten all the way up to just
under forty percent on the year from three makes half
the shots overall.
Speaker 3: Like the free throw percentage is weird. He doesn't get
there enough. But like it's almost four assists per thirty
six for like a front court player.
Speaker 1: That's five driple stuff too.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's real. The offense is real.
Speaker 2: Like I was looking the other day, I think he's
in like the third percentile in defensive estimated plus minus,
which is as I consult my proprietary metrics, it's spitting
out like that's not good.
Speaker 1: So it is just like a huge heuristic.
Speaker 3: Yeah, no, that's what it is.
Speaker 2: It's it's uh, there's a subscription service that you can
you can message me on the side for to learn
the third percent of of something is not good. He
like you would so let's say, oh, boy, that well,
because you've got Walker Kessler there, so like, yeah, I
have opinions on him, very but I do think it's
reasonable to conclude like eventually that guy with decent talent
around him is the anchor of a good defense. Like
it's not like Walker Kesler's not at like the go
bear level where it's like, oh, you have him, so
you're a top seven defense, but like he's fairly close
to that if you put reasonable personnel. So does that
does the fit like favor Philipowski potentially, because like you
need that offense on this team, especially when your guards
can't shoot?
Speaker 1: Do you know what I think? Do you know what
I think? Sorry I'm laughing at the guard thing, because
it's true. I think what actually my favorite was, So
Walker Kesler, Yes, that fit favors him. But if you
kind of look at the team moving forward, the size
that you could have at the one through at excuse me,
the two through four when you're fully healthy, where if
you could play Philipowski with Kessler, Hendrix, and Lowry Market
and that is a lineup you could try, or at
the very least you could certainly play him with two
of those guys, Kessler and then one of those other guys.
Not that Larry Markin's gonna insulate you then, So I
prefer to see it with Hendrix. I just think they
have other ways to insulate him, and in fury, I
still think Cody Williams can kind of be that player.
But you know he's not on this list for a
recent folks.
Speaker 2: I mean, you could argue his leap has been as
big as anyone's because he was literally invisible for most
of the year and now I think I've actually seen him.
Speaker 1: So I think he might be trying to do too
much at the movie that really.
Speaker 3: Did he take a shot this week? Do you think
that's too much?
Speaker 1: So? Yeah, but I think the fit, at least having
Kesler there could favor him. I think it still matters.
Then if you don't think that Taylor HENDRICKX one healthy
is gonna work out and that you can't okay, because
Philipowski could be a three on offense, I don't think
that's the way to maximize him, and that's maybe where
you run into a problem. So if you don't buy that,
then you need to find like you need an upgrade
as a wing defender on this team. Maybe that is
Taylor Hendrix, but beyond that you don't really have an option.
Speaker 2: I mean, the other interesting thing is, like the best
version of Philipowski sort of resembles Larry Markinen offensively, like
not the movement shooting. But it's like you when you said, like,
well he can be a three on offense, like, well,
that's true. That's like Hendricks. Hendricks is like indispensable if
you're gonna be playing Philipowski or marketing defensively. So it's like,
I don't know that there's a pathway un less than
until they do trade market In. But and then it's
just like great, you slot in there, Hendricks is there?
You got Williams and then George and Collier your ones.
Speaker 1: Like great is the word I'd use for this team
after trading market In for sure?
Speaker 3: Yeah? Great for Philipowski.
Speaker 1: You a lot of shots, Bryce sensibare you shooting forty
two point seven percent from three since February first? Also,
of note, he's done a lot more stuff in transition
for them. He's also shooting seventy point six percent in
the restricted area. I don't know what to make like
he doesn't always play a shit ton, And then I
just don't know how do we how do we forecast
forward for him? Is this just what he is? Or
have you seen anything? And I'm gonna preface it with this,
I have not that would make you think that there's
more feel there as a passer or someone who could
be an even better defender if you're looking at like
the way that he could move, cause he's like his
strength is okay, but like he just doesn't move great
for someone his size on the defensive end either. So
I don't I'm I've noted it because he's actually fun
to watch, and I think if you just want someone
who could come in and oh, sometimes they'll generate his
own shot. But I think what he's impressed with me
the most when I talked about him coming out of
school was I worried if he It was kind of
the jail and Tyson concern for me, where it was, oh,
what is he gonna fit, like if he just can't
have the ball, or like I had the same concern
which a Kobe Walter. He's that he doesn't need it,
and I think that's a really big deal.
Speaker 2: So I think I do believe in the shooting. He's
a ninety percent free throw shooter this year, so like
there is there has been a spike, I want to
get it right. So he's like, no one's a forty
seven percent three point shooter, which is what he's been
since the break, but he's thirty seven before it, and
the free throw shooting legitimizes it. Like I don't think
there's more uh like creation, at least for others. Like
he's got more turnovers than assists on the year, and
that's still true in the sample after the All Star break.
So like he is someone that I would I would
trust as like a catch and shooter, catching attack kind
of guy that doesn't really even have like the ideal
size you want at that position. I mean, he's got
decent size, but I just don't know what. I don't
know that I see him as more than like a
fifteen minute a game guy. But he's still I mean,
he hasn't turned twenty two yet, so like maybe there's more.
It's just like I think the assist of turnover stuff
feels like it forecloses a fair mount of like, oh,
there's this kind of upside for him, but as like
a as a as a guy who's gonna make shots
and they just give you a decent size, Like that's
that's something I think I probably more apt to be
buying the Philipowski hype and then and the call even
the Collier upside than I would with sense of a.
Speaker 1: Uh, I would agree. I think that him being a
little bit more plug and playoffensively, you'll at least opens
up a pathway to him having a role. But I
would argue, if he's ever a starter, steady starter in
this league, it feels like he's just eating innings for
a bad team.
Speaker 3: Maybe. So yeah, which is right now?
Speaker 1: Fair enough? I'm a final player to shout out, this
will be our last one. He was going to replace
Jail and Picket until we couldn't figure out who I
had instead of Jail Picket, so they both made it.
Keyshawn George. Look, there's we'rena either have a talk about
the finishing or like he's shot like one percent from
mid range since February first or something. One of eleven's
not one percent? Uh, he is just the more I
watch him, Grant, we talked about him like like kind
of a couple of points this year, like the above,
the break three point shooting is really coming along. He's
had over forty percent since February first. The defensive matchups
he has to shoulder, I do think that very clearly
we've seen him be overmatched at times when you're looking
at like we've seen him go up against you know,
Ky Cunningham or even a Devin Booker, Like there have
been points where it's all right, Like he held his
own on Scottie Barnes and he was fine going up
against McHale Bridges and he did alright, Like defending like
a motion shooter type like going to a Cam Johnson.
Someone's gonna move around the floor and he's still a
body that you could throw on a Pascal Siakam or
even a Devin Booker. So we've seen him moved about
the positional spectrum on defense. I don't think I've come
away thinking, oh, he's making all defensive teams. But I've
come away thinking he doesn't have to be your best
perimeter defender. You all of a sudden have like a
really hell of a second option as your second best
perimeter defender. And then there is and I do think
we mentioned this when we were talking about him. I
think it was like very early on in the year,
the feel for his game as a playmaker. He's gonna
have to figure out a shot making on Drodge, the finishing,
whether he should go up for the mid range, like
making decisions even sometimes after he's picked up his dribble,
finding guys who are moving. His own movement off the
ball I think has gotten better this year and the
own I would have to look into the touch time
for this, but like he's making quicker swing passes or
just if he's catching it on the move, like he'll
find someone coming in from the forty five angle on
a cut. This is someone who I think is going
to be a really valuable connector type wing on a
good team, and I would be very hesitant to say
him in the same name as like a Derek White
or McHale Bridges, and McHale Bridges has kind of come
up from there and we've seen his limitations, but just
like I don't know who would be then a better
example of just like a connector wing who's maybe on
a little bit lower end than there, because I don't
see that defensive ceiling for him there for sure with
a Derek White as a shooter and a passer, though
I absolutely wouldn't rule that out.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think early this year he really stood out
for like his defensive feel and like activity and then
kind of similar stuff on the other end, Like I
don't know it's he. I guarantee you scouts have written
or said the phrase like just knows how to play
like several times in reference to him, which has its
which has its value, And like again I feel like
this is a broken record thing, like the ball's just
got to go in for him. Like I think, like
I'll get this wrong, but I swear so he's made
like just over one hundred threes on the year, and
I swear like ten percent of that happened in like
two games. You know, like he's if you if you
early this season where he was, it must have been
like a four of seven or something in there somewhere.
Speaker 3: I distinctly remember him having like maybe even more than that.
Speaker 2: There might have been like a seven to three game
where so like, really the rest of the year he's
been terrible, and it's the two.
Speaker 3: Point shooting that's even the bigger problem.
Speaker 2: So like I don't connector sounds right almost by default,
because it's like this guy's got nothing when he's trying
to like finish or create shots, so that has to
get there, and then if it does, he's kind of
got all the rest of the stuff like that you'd want.
It is just another question of can he make enough
shots to sort of allow all of his other like
positive attributes, of which there are several, to like play up,
you know, because other because if the ball is not
gonna go in, then I don't know what we're doing here.
Speaker 3: Again that that is a broken record.
Speaker 2: I think I've said that exact phrase before, But you
know what I mean, Like, I don't I'm gonna need
to see for him, I because I believe in all
the other stuff. I'm gonna need to see the ball
go in like pretty consistently before I'm like, Okay.
Speaker 3: He's a he's a positive player on here.
Speaker 1: You don't believe in the three point shooting over the
past like two months.
Speaker 3: I'm uh, not not fully yet, not fully yet.
Speaker 1: I think I'm probably more of a I don't know
if he's gonna be forty two percent above the breakthreees forever.
I think that he'll be in above average here. I
think what you mentioned about can he score in other ways?
Because even when he's moving without the ball, like there
needs to be less ball out before he gets to
the basket. But if you're gonna put the ball in
his hands and want him to drive, cause like I said,
I think he's like, he's pretty good at making reads
and table setting for others in those instances, but you
need to become more of a threat of Okay, at
least get all the way to the basket. Maybe generate
more free throw opportunities would be a part of his
game that I don't need him to. I don't need
him to shoot forty two percent from three and then
like hit these pull up mid range like that to me,
doesn't need to be like his final form.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you're not asking him to be like Cam Johnson
on offense or something like that.
Speaker 1: That was fun. Did you want to take us out
of here?
Speaker 2: Yep, thanks everybody for listening, for watching. Let us know
who we forgot because I told Dan before we started
this that, like I thought of someone and I couldn't
think of him, and I'm not gonna think of it.
Speaker 3: It might have been Zion, Like let's do Zion just
for funzies.
Speaker 1: Yeah, like no, no, super main. That wasn't the We
tried to make that clear thought like, oh man, look
at what freaking like just like you said, Zion's been doing.
Speaker 2: As a guide, Dan chose Bryce Sensiba. So the level
of deep cut and Jalen Pickett.
Speaker 1: So who did you say no to when I named
them too? You're like, absolutely not. I can't even remember.
Speaker 2: I don't know, So let us give us your own
deep cuts and buy oursells post FYI.
Speaker 3: So just yeah, yeah, I did, I did. I did
have the best big man shooter since Karl Anthony Towns.
Who's the best ever? So, I mean, I don't know.
Speaker 2: I'm not sorry, not sorry, nine point three per thirty six,
three point attempts, just making all of them. Let's see
a rate review, subscribe, do the whole things. Make sure
you're checking if you're checking us out on YouTube, and make.
Speaker 3: Sure you're subscribed there. I don't know how you're seeing that,
why you'd be.
Speaker 2: Seeing this if you weren't, but in that unlikely instance,
please subscribe there, leave us a comment, let us know.
Speaker 3: Who we forgot, who who? Whether you buy yourself or
guys we thought so, join our discord links for that.
Speaker 2: For YouTube and podcast description shouts. Frank Mila Kina apologies,
chaired out