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Speaker 1: And they made commitment after commitment out commitment to engage

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in fair trade practices, to give American companies intellectual property

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rights in China, and of course to lift to not

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impose all of these non monetary barriers to entry to

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the Chinese market. And the question is is in the

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last twenty years have American companies being able to penetrate

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the Chinese market? And I think the answer is a

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resounding no.

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Speaker 2: You are listening to Carrie Lutz's Financial Survival Network, where

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00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:30,239
you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else

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00:00:30,800 --> 00:00:34,399
to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial

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00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:39,560
Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork

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00:00:39,600 --> 00:00:43,320
dot com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial

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Survival Network now more than ever.

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Speaker 3: And welcome. You are listening to and watching the Financial

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Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lutz. Well, we're talking

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about tarrists. We're talking about trade deals with China. Is

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there a deal? Is it imaginary? Is it all fluff?

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Are there two deals? Is there the public deal and

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then the real deal? Well, noted attorney and scholar Spencer

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Morrison author with us now to discuss Spencer great having

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you on the show. So is there a deal or

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is there a deal to make a deal, or is

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there really a deal that took place that we don't

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know anything about.

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Speaker 1: Hey, Carry, it's my pleasure to be on the program.

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I think it's an interesting question that you post. Is

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that the tariffs have been paused, of course in bulk for.

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Speaker 4: Ninety days, except for on certain goods I think.

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Speaker 1: Steele and automobiles for example, the tariffs are still on

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the table, and allegedly this is to give more time

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to negotiate. Now, I'm not particularly optimistic that negotiating with

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China is really going to get us anywhere. China join

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the Worldwide Organization in two thousand and one, and they

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made commitment after commitment out commitment to engage in fair

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trade practices, to give American companies intellectual property rights in China,

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and of course to lift to not impose all of

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these non monetary barriers to entry to the Chinese market.

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And the question is is in the last twenty years

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have American companies being able to penetrate the Chinese market?

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And I think the answer is a resounding no. So

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China agreed to lift all of these barriers in two

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thousand and one they didn't. So I'm a skeptical that

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we're going to make any headway here in the next

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ninety days. I mean, they've had twenty four years to

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do it, they haven't done it. In another ninety days

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is probably not going to make that big a difference.

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Speaker 3: There is a difference now, though, and that is this

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situation in China is pretty dire. Basically, you got factories

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closing down by the thousands, unemployment rampant. It kind of

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reminds me of the pictures I'm watching coming out of there,

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the real ones, not the fake shill accounts. But it

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reminds me of the of the crash in the US

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and the you know, twenty nine crash, where like all

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these guys just leave a factory en mass and it's

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empty and that's the end of it. And that's what's

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happening there. So one thing about Trump is we know

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he's a master of leverage, and you know he knows

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that this could be the exact right point where he

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applies maximum leverage to get maximum results.

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Speaker 4: Right, Yeah, I agree with that.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Chinese economy is uniquely vulnerable to these sort

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of shocks to trade because they have a very dedicated

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they have a very bifurcated economy, so a significant portion

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of their manufacturing industry is geared only towards exports. It's

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very different than an economy like America or even frankly,

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most development economies in Europe, where most businesses have some

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exposure exports and significant domestic exposure.

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Speaker 4: In China, it's very different.

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Speaker 1: Most of their businesses, up to ninety five percent of

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their businesses do not deal with other countries. They just

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service the Chinese market. But that five to ten percent

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ish of Chinese companies, they're ninety ninety five percent export oriented.

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So China is uniquely positioned to suffer from these sort

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of trade shocks.

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Speaker 4: And of course America's got all the leverage, just like

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you said.

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Speaker 1: And the reason for that is because we're the country

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that's running the trade deficit, right and we export to them,

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you know, about a third of what we buy from them,

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so we have you know, every dollar of these tariffs

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and trade that's shifting around hits them three times as

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hard as it hits us.

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Speaker 2: Hey.

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Speaker 3: And and let's also a big real is that what

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we export to China they really need. What we import.

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Like if you don't get another iPhone charging cable, USBC

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cable or a charger, your life will still go on.

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Outside of rareth meta metals, which really aren't rare at all.

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They're just we've just had a policy of not mining them.

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There's plenty of them all over the place. It's such

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a misnamed commodity because they're not rare, but they do

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come from the earth, you.

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Speaker 4: Know, Yeah, that's actually very true.

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Speaker 1: They're rare because we didn't want to mind them because

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of the environmental and sometimes human consequences of doing so.

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But you know, we've scaled up the production pretty significantly

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in the last twenty years, and of course there's lots

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of other places we can get the same material. And

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to your point, China is exporting, you know, it's the

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exporting manufactured goods. That's stuff that we can build here.

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America's exports to China are overwhelmingly shifting towards raw materials,

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which of course an economy can't function.

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Speaker 4: Without raw materials.

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Speaker 1: They can build its own polypocket toys and you know,

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shean skirts.

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Speaker 4: Or whatever we're getting from China these days.

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Speaker 3: Hey, and you know, like tabu is like dead dead

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in the water here. Hey, your book, though, resure how

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tariffs will bring our jobs home. And you know, there's

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a whole thing about tara They go back to Smoot

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Hawley in the thirties that that was the final nail

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in the coffin of the Great Depression. But this is

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a completely different case here. I mean, I'm a free

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trader by nature, all right, I'm a libertarian. I believe

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in free trade, except when it's weaponized against us and

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used to basically drive us into the ground and send

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us into a decline and pretty much enable them to

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achieve the world hegemony. That's what's happening here. This is

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weaponized free trade. It's not good for us, but it's

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really not good for the Chinese either. The Chinese people

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for the most part. Yeah, there it's been a lot

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of progress. They got iPhones or androids or Chinese knockoffs,

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whatever it is. But still the vast majority of China,

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and I've been there a couple of times, live in

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unimaginable poverty that few people in this country could really

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comprehend the scale of it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And to your point, I think it's really important

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to remember that. I think we're all on the same

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side in terms of being free market guys. We want

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to functioning free market and we want functioning international free trade.

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But what we have right now and what we've had

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for the last fifty years, is anything but free trade.

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There is no free trade with a country like China.

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China is it's run by the CCP, and the Chinese

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government supports and subsidizes all of these industries in order

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to change the trade volumes and the types of goods

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that are being traded in a way that asymmetrically benefits

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China's domestic policies and whatever it is that they want

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to do. So, for example, one of the things that

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China has been doing is they say, look, we want

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to industrialize, we want to have a cut of the

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high tech industry.

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Speaker 4: So what do they do.

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Speaker 1: They subsidize the cost of raw materials, They subsidize the

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cost of power, They give referential land use policies to

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Chinese companies. They force American companies to do joint ventures

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with Chinese companies, and part of those joint ventures is

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the American company has to give all the technology to

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the Chinese company. So they're engaged in massive intellectual property theft.

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Speaker 4: Let's call it what it is, it's theft.

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Speaker 1: Right, So China's trading with China is not free. We're

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paying for it with their technology and ultimately, and I've

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been talking to small businesses, you know, local manufacturers all

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throughout the country and they're telling me how am I

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supposed to compete with China when the price of Chinese

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goods is subsidized by the government to the point where

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they're driving me out of business?

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Speaker 4: Right, this is you know what Peter Navarro talks about

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all the time. It's dumping.

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Speaker 1: China's selling below cost goods to kill American businesses and

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once they take over that market, they jack up the

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price anyways.

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Speaker 3: And you know, we had this impression that Chinese could

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do no wrong. Obviously it was like Japan, same thing.

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But what we're seeing like, I don't know about you,

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but I would not fly on the Comac Seed nine

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to one nine jet. It looks like an airbus, kind

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of a cross between an airbus and a Boeing, But

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every test they don't bother doing like private testing like

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Boeing an airbus where they test the hell out of

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the thing and find every flaw. They do real time

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passenger testing. You know, the passengers are part of the

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product development, and I would not go on that thing

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and look, Spencer, Everything in the place is collapsing tofu

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dreg construction, you know, buildings, just a bridge, a major

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bridge in Beijing. It was twenty five years old and

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it just collapsed the other day, and that's emblematic. So

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this is what they're exporting to the world, is tofu dreg.

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And perhaps Trump will get the better of them. He

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couldn't be in a better position to do it now

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because their economy is definitely on the skids debt crisis.

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You know, they might have the largest horde of gold

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in the world, but in the end that's not going

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to save them.

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Speaker 1: Well, I think it goes back to the age old

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maxim you get what you pay for it, don't you

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You get what you pay for it. If you're getting

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cheap Chinese goods, they're going to be cheaply made as well, right,

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And I think that's something that people don't understand. I

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did some research into this in the book actually, So

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in the book, we look at the cost of appliances,

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household appliances.

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Speaker 4: And everybody thinks they're getting a good deal on.

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Speaker 1: These household appliances. Because we're getting the parts from China,

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the parts are cheaper. They can take the sticker price

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of the product down right.

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Speaker 4: The problem.

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Speaker 1: The problem is is that these machines are all failing

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way earlier than they used to be. Failing manufacturers are

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not sticking behind, you know, big ticket warranties. They're not

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even willing to give you a ten year warranty on

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most products because they know it's going to fail before that.

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Speaker 4: One in five refrigerators fail within four years.

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Speaker 1: So when they say it's cheap goods, what they actually

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mean is it's cheaply made and you're going to buy

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it two or three times in the same lifespan of

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a product that was made thirty or forty years ago.

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So is it cheaper, No, it's not. It's more expensive

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because you're buying it two or three times.

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Speaker 4: And I think that's what consumers really need to understand.

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The sticker price is not the cost of the good.

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Speaker 1: The price is the price, but it's not the cost.

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The cost is if I'm using this product for fifty

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years and I got to buy it three or four times,

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that's the cost of the product.

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Speaker 3: That's it. Pennywise, and pound foolish, as my mother used

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to say, and wise lady, yeah you know, and like

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you said, you get what you pay for. And well,

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it's going to be interesting to see what happens. I

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don't think Trump is one to give up an advantage

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and negotiating advantage that he actually has. Maybe there's things

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we don't know about. Maybe the agreement's already been reached.

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One thing I would like to mention Spencer and again,

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a book is highly recommended. It's called Resure, How Trists

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will bring our jobs home and revive the America and dream.

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You know, all these countries that Trump has called upon

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to negotiate agreements. All you hear in the media is

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these agreements take years in years to negotiate. Look happened

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with the UK right away. With AI, basically, all you

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do is you train an AI and international law in

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tariffs and shipping, and then you feed in the agreement

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and you say the existing one, you say, how are

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we getting screwed? And then it gives you a list

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and then you say what agreements should we have to

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not get screwed? Done in five minutes. What people don't

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understand is diplomacy is a grift. It's just another grift.

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You negotiate these agreements, the incentive is drag it out

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as long as you can. So you get to go

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stay in five star resorts and you know you're drinking

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a Chateau Lafitte Rothschild by the case eighty two by mission,

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and you know you travel around from five store Hotel

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Michelin star dining only, and that's the way these diplomats

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have gone. But I think those days are over. There

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is no way that the UK Agreement could have been

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negotiated without Aire.

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Speaker 4: You're killing me here.

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Speaker 1: I'm a lawyer.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you're you're exposing that. You're exposing us here. No,

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it's it's definitely true.

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Speaker 1: These agreements and principle do not take long to negotiate

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because I think everybody understands ultimately what the problems they

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want to address are and the problems they're usually you know,

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one to five things that really need to be tackled,

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and the rest sort of falls into place.

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Speaker 4: And of course you're right, there's there's great.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I use legal I software in my own practice.

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Of course, there's great software out there that can help

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you know, parse these deals and review them and I mean, ultimately,

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what we really want is we don't want complicated trade deals.

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We want simple trade deals. I mean this goes back to, like,

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you know, the tax code. The tax code is a

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huge tome.

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Speaker 4: Why is a tax code of home.

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Speaker 1: Let's just say it's ten percent of you know, your

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income and call it a day. You can do it

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on the It's a one sheet of paper.

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Speaker 4: That's what it should be. And that's the way these

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trade deals should be as well.

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Speaker 1: If we want more fair trade, how hard is it

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to say, you know that the terrorists will be level

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or whatever whatever it is that we're going to do.

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What makes what makes it complicated and what makes it

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makes it dangerous is the devil's hide in the details.

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Speaker 4: Right.

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Speaker 1: So the reason these trade agreements are so long is

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because people are, you know, protecting special interests. They're getting

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goodies for one industry over the other. And really, when

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they say we've signed a free trade agreement, what they're

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actually saying is I've given all of my crooked buddies perks.

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And the people who are really going to hurt.

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Speaker 4: Are the American people, the American consumer.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I think that day is coming to an end.

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I think there's a lot more deals being made as

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we speak. It's a lot of deals and you only

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got always many qualified people who you can trust in

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commerce and in state, right because they're purging out the

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other ones who are untrust trustworthy, like Usaid, you know,

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just totally going against the country's interests. And uh, you know,

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it's going to be an interesting time here. But I'm,

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as someone once said, nauseously optimistic.

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Speaker 4: I like that.

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Speaker 1: I like that Nat is optimistic. I'm a you know what,

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I'm optimistic as well. I think the administration is moving

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on the right issues and it's doing it's making.

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Speaker 4: Headway in a way that hasn't been made in at.

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Speaker 1: Least fifty years. And you've got to give credit where

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credit is due. Nobody's even addressed or acknowledged these problems.

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The current administration has acknowledged the problems and they're taking

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some steps to resolving them.

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Speaker 4: So, you know, kudos to them, and let's keep the

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momentum going.

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Speaker 3: It's totally been rugswept for fifty years. And so we're

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going to bring China in and they're going to act

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like human beings, and you know they're going to stop

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forcibly harvesting organs and sending people off to re education

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camps because they're going to be making so much money.

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Everything's going to be great. And that premise appears to

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have failed. And at least somebody is willing to bury

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it now because we know what they're about, and you know,

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if they want to trade, I think there's a block

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that's forming against them, not the least of which was

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for the virus, where it occurred and where it was created.

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Forget about the fact that we the United States, helped

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underwrite it. That's a story for another day. But the

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end of the discussion is it happened there. So Spencer,

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just tell us where do we find you? How do

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we get your book?

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Speaker 1: Yes, Sarah, you can find me on x and on substack.

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The handles are both at Real SB Morrison. The book's

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available right now on Amazon and it's also directly available

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from the publisher at kalamopress dot com. You know, we

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sold out of the first print edition. We're coming out

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with a second edition here, so we're really happy. Thanks

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a lot. Yeah, we're really happy, but it's going to

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be more of a collector. We got a paperback coming out.

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You know, the book is you got to read the book.

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Speaker 4: The book. The book is great.

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Speaker 1: It's a practical it's a practical guide on how to

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reindustrialize America, and it gives everybody the tools they need

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to understand what's going on and understand how we have

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to fix it.

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Speaker 3: Oh, I got it right here in front of me

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on Amazon. I assume it's on Amazon and wherever fine

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books used to be sold. And I just released a

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book myself called The World according to Martin Armstrong and

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the links in the show notes, and it can be bought.

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A fascinating story about a fascinating person who's made literally

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dozens of economic calls that have all come true or

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mostly Crash of eighty seven, unpegging of the Swiss franc

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crash of the of the pound, and so many more,

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two thousand and eight crash, just call after call, World

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according Tomorrow Normstrong, links in the show notes. Spencer, appreciate

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you coming on the show. We'll talk to you again.

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Speaker 4: Thanks a lot, my friend. It's a pleasure.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening. To carry Letz's Financial Survival Network your

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solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to

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00:18:14,839 --> 00:18:20,720
Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival network now more than

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ever