Speaker 1: Alah.
Speaker 2: It is Saturday, which means it's Last Call wager Talk.
Last Call live every Saturday eleven am Eastern here on
wager Talk TV and of course archive twenty four to
seven for your viewing pleasure. Extra excited Saturday here is
we've hit two hundred and ten thousand subscribers here on
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you that made that possible. And if you're one of
the few that hasn't hit subscribe, hey do so right now.
Three hundred thousand is right around the corner. I am
Steve Merril, filling in for Ariel Epstein. She has tied
up with Kelly in Vegas in New York as we speak,
but Ariel will be back next week. But we've got
a great line up. Nonetheless, Johnny the Greek de lead
us off, Ronald Kabang and Ross the Boss Benjamin to
finish it off, and let's get right to the steamer
poor with Ace. Johnny the Greek. He's here every Monday
through Friday at noon Eastern on wager Talk Today, but
we get him in a little bit earlier on Saturdays
at eleven am Eastern. Greek. What you got going on today?
Speaker 3: All right, early early, early action. Here's what we're looking
at w NBA total. We got a WNBA total six
oh seven LA New York over over one seventy four
and a half. And then strictly baseball, here's what we're
looking at their nine to fifty seven Mets at even money,
nine fifty six, Saint Louis minus one thirty five, nine
sixty one A's plus one seventy nine, sixty three under eight,
Cleveland KC nine sixty six, LA Angels plus one thirty nine,
seventy over nine, Tampa Bay Cincinnati nine seventy one, Atlanta
at even money. Multiple groups hit Atlanta, and that's opposite
where I'm seeing public money. And same thing with where
was it nine to eighty Boston minus one thirty five,
Boston minus one thirty five, So plenty of sides and
a couple totals as well. A lot of those got
hit overnight, some follow through this morning, but real quickly
wanted to share five series bets that we placed right
before first pitch. In fact, I think I was only
able to release two of these two subscribers because we
have like a ten minute window, and a few of
these came in with like six seven eight minutes before
first pitch.
Speaker 2: But here's what we took.
Speaker 3: We took the A's at plus one ninety five two
days ago. That series is all but one. They're up
two games to nothing, so the worst we could do
there is push.
Speaker 1: We have Miami in.
Speaker 3: That series plus two sixty. They won game one. We
have the White Sox plus two thirty in that series.
They won game one. I know, I sent that to subscribers.
We have Minnesota minus one eighty five. They also won
game one. And then we took the Yankees right before
first pitch. They bet the Yankees at plus one oh
five and even money, and the Yankees last night in
game one. Usually when they bet a series bet, they
don't unload game one as well, but yesterday they came in,
like I said, on the Yankees and the Yankees Game one,
and more importantly, it was opposite heavy public money. Philadelphia
was one of the most one sided bit games. Philly
and Over was the parlay of the night, so that
that game really rocked the books, really hurt them. If
it wasn't for the sharp money opposite that that would
have really stung. But like I said, the Sharps helped
eliminate some of that risk. But those are five series
that we are looking to cash. Four dogs A's, Miami
White Sox, Yankees, and a favorite Minnesota Again.
Speaker 2: So far, so good.
Speaker 3: Well, they're all up at least one nothing except for
the Yankees.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's interesting because some of those you mentioned, the A's,
especially the White Sox, I think, are six and one
since the All Star break. So some of these ugly
ducklings are playing really good here out of the break.
And we often see, you know, a bye week in
the NFL or a break in college football or baseblay
not can I be a kind of a momentum killer
or yep, an opposite effect. So I think that's been
very interesting to see. And I love how you mentioned
we got a little bit of a sharp square divide
in that Braves Rangers game, and as you know, NFL
right around the corner. Look for that all the time
with my fade the public info, whatever the public is
on once on the sharps on the other it's always
something that catches your attention.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 3: I also you know what I really like it what
has done well for me historically when the public and
I don't just you can't just fade the public and.
Speaker 1: Make it money.
Speaker 3: You know, you're not getting eleven to ten like the
sports books, and long term, you bet someone off the street,
they're gonna go fifty to fifty, you know, more or less.
But there are those times it can tell you a
lot when you add in the market read on it,
the line movement and then the exits and o's line up.
And the most success I've had is when I see
the betting public is confirmed to be on a dog,
heavily on a dog, especially when it's a point spread sport,
and they're taking them on the money line, like they
don't even think they need the points. When I see that,
and I see a lot of those money line parlays
where there's that one dog and it's also the dog
getting bet by the points and the sharps are opposite,
those usually do the best because you know, historically we
tend to see sharps more on dogs and unders. But
when you see them take a strong position on a
favorite and opposite is the public on the dog and
betting the money line, those are usually gold. I like
betting those looking looking for a reason to back that favorite.
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's talk more about that. I mean, the NFL
is only about a month and a half away. They
have Actually ESPN today is running the training camps all
day long. I had that earlier. Every like twenty minutes,
you're going to a different camp so you can follow
your favorite team. I totally agree with you. I've always
said my NFL, fade the public information. Use it as
a filter. Right, It's one of the thirty different aspects
you're using when you're handicapping, And those are the exact
filters I like as well. Greek is that public underdog
ding ding red flag alert? You know you hear me
say it all the time. We're going to fade those
public dogs. They don't happen often. And same thing when
the public is heavy on and under For the same
reasons you just mentioned, I don't look as much with
totals with information for public stuff. But yeah, the public
likes favorites in the over, so when they're on a
dog or an under it catches your attention. And what
I like about that also is that you're getting a
quality team when you're fading the public in that situation.
Speaker 1: Yep.
Speaker 2: And that's another that's another filter we'll talk about is
avoid the crap teams, right. I mean, that's what makes
it fifty to fifty long run is if you just
throw out those twenty percent of the fel teams that
just go oh for O for oh for for weeks
in a row, like the Panthers a couple of years ago,
the Texans a couple of years and ago until they
turned it around. I don't like to play bad teams,
and I'd love to fade the public with good teams
whenever possible.
Speaker 3: Great point, great point, And I want to talk on
a comment real quick. And I love what Robert s wrote.
He said, and it's so true. The public has more
info now than ever before at their fingertips. That's that's
so true that the problem is that the books also do.
They also have access to that information. But more importantly, Robert,
here's what we know. This is factual that prior to
the influx of recreational betters, prior to the legalization of
sports betting in the United States, in pretty much every state,
we know that ninety nine percent of sports betters had
negative lifetime earnings. Like all sports betting accounts that have
ever been opened, ninety nine percent of those had negative results. Okay,
now now with it legal, ten years later, with it legal,
with information in everyone's fingertips, with social media, with all
that access, there's actually less winners. We now know that
it's a half a percent are actually profitable. Dave Mason,
Actually I had them on my podcast and when I said,
is it's still about one percent, he said, no, we're
down to about a half a percent of accounts are profitable.
So we have more betters than ever before, more information
than ever before, and yet the losing has increased, it
hasn't decreased. And a lot of that has to do
with just searching out bad bets, like taking worse money
lines than ever before, where they're laying to lay more
juice me and you talk about that all the time.
They're willing la minus one twelves minus one thirteen's instead
of even minus one ten that takes a toll. They're
willing to do all those parlays and same game parlays
and all that negative ev stuff that they keep promoting
and showing those tickets for five dollars winning one hundred thousand,
And I think that's one of the reasons why the
results have gotten worse, not better. Even though there's more
information and betters are more astute and savvier and sharper
than ever before. It hasn't produced any type of positive results,
and it just goes to show you we are not
very good at practicing what we preach. Most of us
know what the sharp stuff is. Most of us know
not to take bad numbers, not to over bet our edge,
not the chase, not the bet for action. Most are
sharp enough to know these things. Can you follow through?
That's the difference. Do you have the discipline to follow through?
And obviously from the results, it seems like most aren't
following through. We hear it enough, we know what to do,
we know what's sharp and what's square, but for some
reason we continue to place negative v bets and the
numbers don't lie. I wish it were different, but it
just isn't.
Speaker 2: That's fascinating with bet online because that's a sharp book.
They don't discourage sharp action, so for them to have
less than one percent winners, it's pretty remarkable. But I'll
also go to what I was going to say is
that the lines are also sharper and more accurate than
they've ever been in our lifetime, and bet online has
very sharp numbers because they take sharp action, right, so
their number, you know, And I'm sure Johnny Detroit's in
the chat. He always talks about scalping, how he win.
He always loses the pinnacle, beats all the other books
and gets limited. I would guess long term, if you're
scalping with the bet online numbers two, you're gonna probably
end up winning elsewhere more than there. But that's the problem,
you know. I mean, just even twenty years ago, you
and I could get a three point middle in every
college basketball game, or you know, during the day it
was free pickings. You didn't even have to handicap. You
could just play the best number on the board every
day and win. You've talked about this. If you pull
up Odd's logic right now with the free wager talk
Live Odds, you know best, you're gonna see a couple
of cent difference. And then, as Johnny Detroit pointed out, two,
a lot of these books have twenty thirty cent lines
now on baseball, which makes it even more difficult. So
you're right, the information is now available, and you know
this leads under the preseason, which is right around the corner.
When I started in nineteen ninety six, it was about
getting the information. Now it's about what you do with
the information, because within one click of a mouse, you
know the quarterback rotations and everything else that's going to
happen in the game.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and the market has become more efficient, and it's
an efficient market. And that's what the definition is. An
efficient market's one that continues to correct itself. And that's
what we've seen me and you've talked about it with baseball.
When I first came to Las Vegas, I never saw
a total below seven.
Speaker 1: It didn't matter.
Speaker 3: I know, I sound like a broken record, and I
talked about Mattox verse Martinez and it was still seven
under Juice minus one thirty minus one forty. But they
didn't go to six and a half.
Speaker 1: They didn't go to six.
Speaker 3: They didn't go to five and a half.
Speaker 2: Now they do.
Speaker 3: Now you see that that's a market correcting itself, making
it harder to win. You never saw NFL totals about fifty.
In fact, when I first moved here, when I was
a runner on the strip, I was told if I
saw a casino posting above fifty on an NFL total,
to take the under. It was almost never because remember,
like you touched on. They didn't copy each other's lines.
You could get a two to three point middle very
easily by just shopping, by just moving around. You can't
do that anymore. You can't cross the street and get
a two point difference. You could do that back in
the past, and that would happen. And if you saw,
you know, one casino that was getting peld into an
over that they went to fifty one or something fifty
one and a half fifty two, you could bet the
under because you.
Speaker 1: Almost never saw that. You know, now you.
Speaker 3: See fifty six is fifty sevens in the NFL. Like
they've gotten a lot more efficient, that's for sure.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll tell you and here I'll leave it at this.
But here's what's so crazy about all of this is
the lines are more accurate, more efficient than they've ever been,
but the prices are getting worse. It should be the
other way around, right, I mean, Barbary Coast is giving
five cent baseball lines twenty twenty five years ago when
the numbers were softer, and now I'm looking at the
live eye screen right now. I mean it's hard to
find a ten cent baseball line, and a lot of
these are twenty twenty five cent splits. That's what's so
criminal about it.
Speaker 3: Makes it so much harder to beat, and enough recreational
betters don't talk about it again.
Speaker 1: You know, I don't want to go along.
Speaker 3: I know we got a great lineup of guys coming
on to share a lot of information, but we see it.
Speaker 1: Man.
Speaker 3: I walk through the blackjack everything six to five blackjack. Now,
everything's continuous shuffle. Why because they're still playing.
Speaker 1: The tables are still packed.
Speaker 3: I walked through the casino last night.
Speaker 1: You could consider it.
Speaker 3: A blackjack table. Every single one was six to five blackjack.
Every single table on the floor was continuous shuffle. But
with every seat taken. If the market's willing to take
the worst of it, they're going to keep giving us
the worst of it.
Speaker 2: Right, If someone's going to pay more for something, they're
gonna charge you more. Why wouldn't you exactly.
Speaker 3: Why wouldn't you. I don't blame the books. I blame
us the market willing to bet into those books.
Speaker 2: So the takeaway here for all you viewers out there,
and I consider the way you talk viewers sharper than
the average sports better is don't give in find an
account that gives you good odds, find a bet online,
find somebody else that's give you a fair ten set line,
and don't let this misspricing continue. Hopefully, as you know,
we'll get to a betting market at some point and
let me know when you're ready to get that, Johnny,
I'm on board with you. You'll be the first investor. I
think we're still a little ways away, though. Yes, what
do you got going on? Steam room? What else you
got going with?
Speaker 3: Yeah, we knocked that out yesterday because today's early UFC.
It goes off in about forty five minutes.
Speaker 2: Right early UFC card, Yeah, tell us about it starts Yep.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I got a UFC package up. I believe I
got five or six plays in there already. I'm still
handicapping the cards, still getting good information coming in a
lot of the info. Like I said, most of the
biggest betters the betting city gets that do MMA. A
lot of their stuff comes in late because of the limits.
So you should be getting more plays over the next
forty five minutes. But I'll give something out real fast,
real here for you guys for free. First fight of
the night. Uh Cheka and Martin Buddhay sharp money came
in and Buda yesterday at a plus about plus one
two thirty all the way down about plus two ten.
They took the Boodai side made sense. This is a
debut for Bucheka. He's a bjjace, but he's never fought
in the UFC. He's only got I MMA fights. All
of those are wins in the first round except the
one loss that went through a decision. But he's a
Brazilian jiu jitsu ace.
Speaker 1: I mean he's got.
Speaker 3: He's won every kind of title you can on the mat.
With that said, Boudaia's got that UFC experience, so I
can understand why the Sharps took Boodai. I like Boudaie
as well slight lean there at plus money, but I
think the under at plus money also offers some value,
even if the minus one ten under one and a half.
I think either Bucheka gets him out of there quickly
by able to sub Bouda, or boud I shocks him.
Speaker 1: He gets him out.
Speaker 3: Of there quickly, but Bouchecka is not built to really
go past seven and a half minutes. I think this
fight ends quickly. It's heavyweights as well, but Boudin not
being a finisher gives us a little bit added value.
That's why we're getting it at even money. So I
think there's worst case that happens is a split. You
take boudaie plus two hundred to ten or better to
twenty and go under one and a half. Hopefully we
go to and zero. But there's some UFC start the
night action for you guys.
Speaker 2: Going with Boudai and Abu Dubai.
Speaker 1: Here you go and Abu Dhabi there you go.
Speaker 2: Yeah, two to one right now, getting two to one
on that and getting plus one twenty on the under.
So if you there that you're making money. And that
is the first fight in exactly one hour twelve seventeen Eastern,
exactly one hour from now. So this is truly last
call for MMA, and I'll let Johnny run finished handicapping
that card and check out his page right now at
wager talk dot com for more best bets. It's Johnny
the Greek and you can see him every Monday through
Friday as well at noon Eastern here on wager Talk Today.
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The man Alexander at the controls, So if you say
something nice about the Phillies, better chance it'll pop up
on the screen. All right, let's bring in Ronald Kabang,
the Ladies Man, talk some wn B A and Ronald Man.
I don't follow the WNBA too close, but went today's
game three years ago when we were all out there
in Vegas for the Way to Talk get together and
it was one of the better sporting events I've ever
been to. How far they have fallen though? Huh? What
they lose by like forty or something last night? So
what's going on with the ass? So just the loss
of some players, I guess.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I think the whole chemistry issue, that's
something I think that the players, they just don't play
well with each other. They brought in, you know, Juwel Lloyd,
they lost Plumb, they lost you know, they lost a
lot of depth, and their their bench is not that great.
I mean they lost even the young young players that
they brought in during their time when they were pretty good,
like Martin and all that stuff, they all they're all gone.
So they have a bunch of older people and I
don't know, it just it just seems like they're they're
not vibing the way they should be with the names
on the court that they have. So it's tough to
see them struggling. But I think the rest of the
league also, it's not them getting that much worse. I
think the rest of the league is getting a lot better.
So it's credit to the whole league getting better.
Speaker 2: Yeah, thirty one point loss last night in Minnesota is
a ten point dog. Let's look at the two games tonight.
First one goes it's seven Eastern. We've got Los Angeles
at in New York. A little bit of money coming
in on the underdog here. It opened its eyes eleven
and a half. It's now down to ten and a half,
even some nine and a halfs. It's literally dropping as
we're doing the show live here on Saturday morning. Total
has been bumped up a little bit from one seventy
four and a half to one seventy five. Big total
in this game, though, so big points spread with a
lot of points expected.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, this one. I think I can see why
they're going towards the sparks here. They're on a four
game winning streak and then this dates back to right
before the All Star break. This is also their third
straight game on the West Coast, so some travel could
be some travel fatigue there. Liberty, they're on a five
game winning streak. This is actually their eighth straight home game.
They haven't played on the road since last since June,
so all of this month they've been at home so far.
But this is also the second leg of back to
back games for them, so potential issues there. I believe
some of their players hit thirty minutes yesterday. I think
it's Stewey, Sabrina, Phoebish all, you know, key players in
their in their rotation that played heavy minutes. So we
could see them with some some type of minutes restriction
in this one, because I mean, obviously, if you look
at the total, it seems like there's not gonna be
a lot of defense played in a faster pace. So
this might be a situation where you know, you get
the bench going in with Marine Johannes who can run
and play a little bit of faster pace. So I
can see why the total also went up. From a
trend perspective, if you look at the Liberty nine four
one ats at home ten and four to the under
one of the best defensive teams in the league, also
one of the most efficient offenses as well, so you
can see why those trends make sense. The last time
they played on the second lego back to back games,
though they did win and cover eighty five to sixty
three as eight and a half point road favorites, that
total went under as well.
Speaker 1: But if you look at.
Speaker 4: The Sparks side, it's whole opposite, just all offense, no defense,
fast paced on the Sparks side when you know all
their opponents are going over to the team total sixteen and
seven so far this season, so you're profiting a big
chunk if you just faded the Sparks defense so far
this season. But this total here one seventy five and
a half right now, ninety two and a half team
total for the Liberty second game of back to back,
it just seems a little bit high. The last matchup
that they had they had won so far this season
eighty nine to seventy nine, stayed under the total. I
just think that this number is a little bit inflated
based on the current situation for both teams. Right, Sparks
third straight road game on the East Coast, second of
a back to back for Liberty, So I would think
it actually it's I would probably say to the under
that for the total, and I would actually look towards
I agree with the market on the on the Sparks side,
with the plus, I think it opened up at like
plus eleven, but like you said, it has been down,
so I would lean towards Sparks and the under.
Speaker 2: Yeah, LA's got sixteen overs, as you mentioned this year,
no other team in the WNBA is more than thirteen overs.
I mean, just crushing the over under it. But now
the question is know is their value left when the
total is inflated this high. The markets, obviously after twenty
four games, are going to correct. We do have another
game tonight that right after. It's seven thirty Eastern Seattle
at my Washington Mystics Washington three and a half point
dog with this also seeing Somebodey coming on. The Dog
opened its high as five and a half down to
three and a half four in most locations, a little
bit of a dip to the under as well, one
fifty six and a half down to one fifty four
and a half in the Nation's capital tonight.
Speaker 4: Yeah, this one. I mean, I'm a Storm fan, I'm
from Seattle, and I was actually the last I was
at the last game these two met each other. I
had this Storm team total under that one cash. One
thing to make about the Storm they always tend to
play down to their opponent's levels, obviously mistakes. They're playing
a lot better this year than than a lot of
people expected, just because of how young they are, but
it has a lot to do with their defense. For
the most part, their offense has been inefficient, especially recently.
If you look at the Storms games, they've been really
inefficient offensively. But they are coming off a really dominant
ninety five to fifty seven win against the Sky. I
think their offense sees a little bit of a letdown here.
And also I mentioned how I cash that Storm team
total under it was because of how ugly these two
teams played like. They match up so well with their
guards and their bigs defensively that it just created like
this ugly flow to the game. People couldn't get into
a rhythm. Even the bench players couldn't either, So the
matchup wise, it just seems like they really are built
to stop each other's offensive rhythm. If you look at
the Mystics defense, they've actually been a little bit better recently.
The Storm are also playing at the slowest pace in
the league, Mystics not too far off at eighth over
the last ten games Mystics. I think one thing that
the Mystics do have an advantage of is getting to
the free throw line. The Storm are also twelfth in
second highest free throw rate allowed, so they're sending opponents
to the free throw line. And both teams are top
four enforcing turnovers as well, So what I mentioned about
like ugly games between each other, they're just creating turnovers
contesting shots. I think both offenses struggle in this situation here,
slow paced game. I agree with the under the total
going down to the under. I also think that, like
I mentioned earlier, Seattle's gonna get a bit of a
letdown offensively after scoring ninety five they only scored said
they failed to score seventy in three SHAP games prior
to that, So I actually think that the mystics is
the right side as well.
Speaker 2: Ronald knows his WNBA. I know, Ronald, going into last
you're double run, but still on a twenty nine and
six run. I believe on four percent or higher w
NBA plays, which is just remarkable, and number one this
year as well. Tell people about it.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yesterday did not go great one in three, but
we built a lot of cushion so far this season
seventy seven units profit after yesterday's one in three day
in the regular season, so a lot of things going
really well all time. I think all time. I'm number
one in w n B a third going for my
third straight number one season, and you know, I've been
following and watching it before it got really popular, So
I think that's one advantage I have that I have
and I'm also able to adjust as the game changes,
so I think that I don't see me slowing down
in the w NBA. I've really been focusing in on
that over like baseball and all that stuff. But one
thing that I've learned this year is you know, the
lower you know, the lower like one to two percent
plays haven't been that great for me. So I actually
told client set, I'm not doing any I'm not giving
any plays less than three percent. So I won't have
a WNBA play today, but I will have MLB. So
if you guys are interested in that, you could check
out my kaper page wt Dot Buzz backslash RC.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean WNBA records incredible, number one last year,
number one this year even with a one in three nights,
still eight and four is last twelve. So it's a
great way to build that bank roll for the football season.
Ronald's also got a five percent college football play up.
He's number one all time on five percent best bets
at wager Talk. And I want to mention this on
the way out, Ronald, because we're bringing in Ross Benjamin
next and we've got a duo special with you and Ross,
and we'll talk more about it with Ross as well.
But by Ronald get Ross free or by Ross get
Ronald free, doesn't matter how you want to slice it.
It's a two for one special. You get them both
for the next year for the price of one. That's
it's a fantastic offer.
Speaker 4: Yeah, real quick. Someone asked about the box and the Murners.
It's oh, it's a griffy, just a griffy bubble ahead.
Also have a KD KD Rookie a babble ahead as
well in Seattle uniform, so representing.
Speaker 2: Seattle Supersonic back in the day. Yes, sir, people forget
that Ronald college football right around the corner, you got
that big playoff, you got the special two for the
full year with Ross.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I saw that. So I have a five percent
play in college football. It's it's a you know, I
have low volume in college football, but my five percent
plays I think. I don't know if you mentioned it,
but I'm on a forty nine and eleven run and
five percent plays, number one all time profit win percentage
and ROI on five percent plays. So when I throw
those out there, they hit at a high rate. And
this college football play actually checks all the boxes for
what I usually look for. So, yeah, that one's up
been available. It's it's almost a month away, but I
wanted to get ahead of the line just because I
feel like it's going to be shifting a bit.
Speaker 2: It's all available on his page right now. Check them
out Ronald Kabang at wager talk dot com. And as
I'm mentioned you by Ronald, you get Ross, you buy Ross,
you get Ronald. And speaking of Ross, Benjamin, let's bring
him on right now. I've been told he's gonna behave Ross.
I'mnna makeing this very clear. We're running the tight show
here today on Saturday. So I need you on your
A game, all right, man, No pro I got the U.
Speaker 1: I'll never want to let you down.
Speaker 2: Brother. You never let me down. It's impossible. Even when
you try, you can't do it. You're having a nice
run too. We talked about those free play videos. You
probably cooled off a little bit because what we were
like thirty four and eleven or something at one point.
Speaker 1: I don't know, cool off, cooling off compared to what.
Speaker 2: That's what I'm saying. It was impossible.
Speaker 1: I mean you look at you look at my record
right now. I'm on a where are we here? Forty
six and twelve and sixty three and nineteen run, so
something in that area. There, Steve. Don't quote me on that,
but it's right in that neighborhood. So yes, it's cooled
off a bit lately. Uh had another winner last night.
But yeah, WT doc buzz slam Ross TV. If you
want to confirm what I'm claiming I am on these
free picks, go ahead.
Speaker 2: Its you got a buzz code for the videos I
need to do that. You're ahead of me. Man, you're
passing me on the YouTube stuff here.
Speaker 1: It's exhausting chasing you.
Speaker 2: It's such All I know is Ross Pop's a baseball
video and within like five minutes it's got a thousand views.
So that's telling you something, folks, that he is on
a monster free and this is all free. We're talking
about free play, free, we're talking about practice. We're talking
about free, not best bets free. Yeah, and if you
do want Ross's best bets, which you're even better, stronger plays,
you can get them once again for free when you
buy Ronald or get Ronald for free when you buy Ross.
It's a two for one special, no promo code need.
It couldn't be any simpler. It's on both of their
pages right now, a two for one special for the
next three hundred and sixty five days, Ronald and Ross Benjamin.
All right, now we're gonna tease this one a little bit. Ross.
We're getting to a huge, huge, plus ten thousand long
shot to win the college football Championships. So stay tuned
in a couple of minutes. But first, let's talk some baseball.
Is it your New York Mets? Were your Yankee, your
Met guy growing? All right, so it's your New York
Mets against the New York Giants. Are you old enough
to remember the Giants?
Speaker 1: And I am old enough to remember the Giants?
Speaker 2: No?
Speaker 1: Well, letting no, I take that.
Speaker 2: I didn't think you were. That was a complete job.
That was actually dumbfounded that you said yes. To be honest,
it kind of spoiled the whole job.
Speaker 1: I'm not I know you guys like to tease me,
but I'm not that old.
Speaker 2: I didn't think you were Giants Mets. You know, I
talked about the National League West earlier this week on Tuesday,
and I said, out the Padres, if you look at
run differential, were maybe a bit overrated. Well they've since
lost four straight games, so I guess that came back
down to earth fast. But I also mentioned that the
Giants were the one team that were good against winning
the opponents in that division, where the Padres Dodgers all
had losing records, So this could be a good match
up to Now, what's your take on this game, Giants Mets.
Speaker 1: Well, you know, you got to look at this from
a book maker's standpoint. They made San Francisco as a
minus one to the opener, and the Mets are six
games ahead of San Francisco and Stanley's. The Mets have
won five in a row, the Giants have lost seven
of nine. Yet the Giants open his favorite another down
to one fifteen, So to me, a red flag goes
up there right away. And then looking inside the numbers,
David Peterson talk about Jekyl and Hyde as a starter
in his home and away splits eleven and oh, and
his home team starts. That's not decisions, that's games that
he started at home. The Mets have been eleven and oh.
But the last eight starts on the road for Peterson,
the Mets have gone oh to eight, and his numbers
are indicative of such. It's not like there're horrible numbers
on the road, Steve, but they're the disparity between his
ERA and whip on the road compared to at home
is its side catching. Robbie Ray, on the other hand,
eight and three, and his home team starts this year
with an excellent two fifty three RA and one fourteen
whip eight of his eleven home starts this year, we're
of the quality variety meeting six innings or more pitched,
three yearned runs or less allowed. The San Francisco bullpen
at home this year been very good. Three twenty one ERA,
one fifteen whip. I'd like San fran here. I just
think I'm gonna think like a book maker here, and
I think some of that conversation that you and Gianni
were having applies here. You know what I mean. If
it looks too good to be true in sports betting,
more times than not it is. I'm going to take
San Francisco here minus one fifteen against the Mets and Ross.
Speaker 2: I want to ask you, obviously having a great baseball season,
if you had to say, like your two or three
favorite things, like when you're making your short list every day,
what are you looking at in baseball? What are your
two or three favorite things to look at when the
analyzing games, I.
Speaker 1: Always begin with starting pitching, Steve, I think most of
us do. And I look at recent form more so
than how a guy's overall numbers are. So I mean,
you could have a guy who's overall numbers are you know,
his ERA is less than three, but over his last
three starts it's six point two OHO and his whip
is like one sixty, you know, So I look at
recent form. Bullpens you have to take into consideration. And again,
because it's a long season, there's gonna be a lot
of ups and downs with bullpen performances. So I like
to get that down to maybe the last month and
even the last seven games or so, and see how
the bullpens are performing. Because in this day and age, Steve,
you know, it's it's a day and age of specialization
when it comes to pitching a major league baseball So
that's the other thing I look at. And then, you know,
I look at various other topics, but those are the
first two I look at. Of course, I don't like
to ask bad teams to do good things for me.
I think you touched upon that as well. So even
if I get a favorable starting pitching matchup and the
team is lost, well you know, Detroit's a perfect example
with Scooble today, I'm going to stay completely away from
that game with probably the best starting pitcher in baseball
right now because of detroit struggles. I think they're one
and eleven in their last twelve. So those are some
of the things I look at, Steve.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's always goes back to offensive momentum for me,
good or bad when teams are struggling. When the Guardians
lost what was it ten straight a few weeks ago,
they scored like one or two runs almost in every
game during that span. Tigers they've lost eleven out of twelve.
As you mentioned, they've been outscored eighty three to thirty two.
So yeah, they're giving up, you know, like seven runs
a game or whatever. But what jumps out to me
is the thirty two because you can control that that's
the same lineup every day. Thirty two runs over twelve
games is not good. That's less than three runs a games.
So it also amazes me how the offenses go through
ebbs and flows also during the season, so big you're
spot on about current form, and you know, yeah, avoid
bad teams in every sport. That's such a great filter.
And in general. Going to get to that college football
long shot in a moment. But if you all have
any specific games you want to ask Rossvelt, please drop
them in the live chat and we will get to
them before we leave baseball. Ross second half of the
season really was here a few weeks ago, but the
post All Star break second half of the season this
year now, and I mentioned earlier how I always feel
like the bye week in the NFL or baseball it's
a momentum killer, or it can help teams that were struggling. Obviously,
the Tigers are on a slide, and they had a
great first half. White Sox six and one the seven
half after the break, A's fifteen runs. Last night, A
rookie hits four home runs for the first time in
the history of baseball in the twentieth four run home game. Ever,
that's one of the rarest feats in baseball over one
hundred and fifty years. We've only had it twenty times.
Pretty cool. What is your take on the second half? Here?
Your New York Yankees overrated, underrated, neutral, buy, sell, neutral,
a hold at this point maybe Blue Jay sixteen and four.
Speaker 1: I thought, look, here's the thing, it's a tricky question
right now, Steve, because we're approaching the trade deadline right point,
so you know somebody's made your market. Teams that are
still in contention, like the Yankees. I'd like to wait
and see and see what transpires at the trade deadline,
if getting McMahon in a trade as their stop gap
at third base or they think that they got to
steal there. The guy's sitting two seventeen. I know his
prior years he's been very good. But if that's an indication,
I'm selling on the Yankees. I just even with him
in the lineup, there's just too many soft spots in
that batting order as you go from six through nine
in that lineup. So and I'm not convinced on their
starting pitching beyond Max Freed, who do you trust? You
know what I mean? I guess Carlos rodon sure. But
beyond that the depth that are starting pitching, and this
bullpen is a mess.
Speaker 4: Uh.
Speaker 1: This isn't the Yankees bullpen we've seen in the last
five or six years. They're far from dominant. So that
in that aspect, if you were talking specifically about my Yankees,
they're sell to me.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you've touched on something I was going to say.
You know, regular season and postseason are so different, right.
Winning regular season games is about having four or five
decent starters, having a deep offense. You get to the postseas,
you're gonna have one or two superstar pitchers and dominate.
And I don't feel like the Dodgers or the Yankees
necessarily have the best starting staffs in either league. And
if you look at them ross, they're combined down over
fourteen units this year against the money line.
Speaker 1: Dodgers have an excuse, right, Steve. They got guys that
have been out and waiting to come back.
Speaker 2: That's the big X factor. If they come back healthy
and if they're ready to roll. I think that's maybe
what they're doing with O Toddy in my opinion, is
that they're just trying to get them enough work here
for one or two innings a game. If he's in
full throttle for the postseason, that's pretty dangerous. But it's
also so risky, so risky to have him out there
throwing in my opinion.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean, you're never going to lose his bat, but.
Speaker 2: But you will if he hurts his arm. Maybe that's
my point. That's why yeah, I got you out there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, And you know, the Dodgers' bullpen has
just been terrible. They got a lot of guys out.
I get that. But like you just alluded to that
big if question if they come back healthy and how
healthy are they and how will they perform after such
a long layoff, I think you're going to see the
Dodgers make some major moves with their bullpen at the
trade deadline. So again a wait and see approach there
with the Dodgers as well, Steve.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and the trade deadline right around the corner. As
Ross said, it really is a great point. We'll know
a lot more when we hit August as far as
what teams have what in their abilities. In my Washington Nationals,
we'll see if they do another six for one trade,
maybe like they did with Soda. What a steal that was.
I love that you and I could be general managers
for an NFL team or a baseball team, and I
swear I could turn them around in five years if
they just let me do what I wanted to do
the NFL. I would trade my first round picks every
year and load up. You and I saw the Cowboys
do it. Thirty some years ago. You know, it just
it's been proven to work. The problem is every general
manager is on the hot seat and they have to
catch lightning in a bottle. They keep trying to grab
these quarterbacks with these first round pitchers. Hey, speaking of football,
we teased it earlier, ten thousand plus ten thousands. So
what's at one hundred to one? I guess is it?
One hundred to one is what it would be.
Speaker 1: A plus ten thousand, one hundred will win you ten thousand,
So yeah, one hundred to one odds.
Speaker 2: Yeah, but still this is a long shot in college football.
And look, you know, obviously one hundred to one is
probably not going to win it. But if you get
in the playoff system, especially that expanded playoff we have,
now you got hedge opportunities, a lot of other things
you can do. So what's the team you've got kind
of on your radar?
Speaker 1: Arizona State plus ten thousand. You know it's Steve. You know,
it sounds like an absurd bet, but hear me out
on my reasoning here, and I think that you'll see
where I'm going with this. I mean, look, the Big
Twelve is a wide open conference, right and Arizona State
right now is a co favorite at DraftKings at plus
five point fifty, and they have seventeen returning starters from
last year's eleven and three team that won the Big Twelve.
They lost to Texas in the College Football quarter Final
in a double overtime game. They did lose their stars
running back Camp Scataboo, but they they do return a
excellent sophomore quarterback in Sam Levitt, who's second team Big
Twelve last year, and the first team preseason All American
wide receiver in Jordan Tyson. So they have plenty to
bring back even with the loss of Scataboo. Then you
look at the strength to schedule, it's only number thirty nine.
I say only because as a Power five conference team,
that's a pretty low strength to schedule. And this year's
opponents that they're going to face they were number sixty
and win percentage last season. I just need them to
get to the Big Twelve title game, Steve, and you
know what I mean. You look at it's odd they're
plus five point fifty to win the Big Twelve, but
they're only plus three eighty to make it to the
College Football playoffs. And at the same sportsbook DraftKings. So
I need them to get to the college or the
Big twelve Chanceampionship game, and it's a hedging opportunity from
their going forward. At those types of odds, there's no
reason why you can't make a substantial profit on Arizona State,
even if I'll go even one step further, if the
game before and their regular season finale, if they need
that to win to get into college or the Big
twelve Championship game, you may want to start hedging right
at that point. And you know you're in a prime position.
You know. The only way we throw money out the window,
he is if they you know, they have a terrible season,
and that goes with any team in the country. You know,
But at odds of plus ten thousand, I know that
seems absurd, but we're really not betting plus ten thousand.
We're betting on them to get to the Big twelve
Championship game, and we assure ourselves of a substantial profit.
And why couldn't they I mean plus five point fifty
to win the Big twelve plus three eighty to get
into college football playoff. I think there's a lot of
at that number, and it's not such an absurd bet,
as we ordinarily would think when you're seeing a plus
ten thousand.
Speaker 2: Just on the surface. You've got a team, you said,
seventeen returning starters, right, Yeah, yes, they got a bye
last week. Last year there in the top four with
a bye, had to play one last game and lost
in double overtime in that game. They're that close to
being in the semi finals. Last year. They got a
lot of guys back in a very watered down conference.
I think it makes a lot of sense. And the
fact that it's three and a half to one to
make the playoffs ors is one hundred to one to
win the whole thing. Yeah, you're much better off hedging.
And like you said, you could hedge before the Big
twelve title game even if you think only one team
is going to get there. I don't know how much
have you done work with college football with other teams
you still digging in as still.
Speaker 1: Digging in, Steve. You know, I've been going so well
on Major League baseball right now, It's been my focus,
but college football. Last year I was number one in units, earned,
number one and win percentage, and up until July thirty,
first at midnight, folks, early Bird special four nine nine
for my college football season right through the National Championship game.
So you got a few days to take advantage of.
Add it's going to go up to five ninety nine
as of next Wednesday, so jump in there, and well
you know, I'm on an all sports premium picks run
right now of eighty and forty nine Steve sixty two
percent since May thirteenth and the net profit of over
seventy five units during that course at times, So I
wake up every morning thinking I'm in heaven, and then
I get a I feel my pulse and I'm not.
So I gotta stay grounded.
Speaker 2: Clients are in heaven, though, to say the least amazing runs,
And if you haven't been capitalizing on the free play runs,
it's insane because you could to pay for multiple college
football seasons by now and getting Ross's best bets. But
MLB alone thirteen and four thirty and thirteen sixty five
and forty one and the free picks once again, will
Wager Talk TV on forty six and thirteen sixty three
and twenty runs got the official numbers for you, Ross,
I didn't trust you to remember those incredible numbers got
the official numbers for you.
Speaker 1: Yes, thank you very much, Steve. And again, look at
here's the thing, folks. Some of you say, well, why
should I pay because you're so hot with free picks.
Speaker 2: You got a good.
Speaker 1: Point, But at the same time, it shows you capable
of what I'm capable of on the premium pick side.
And you know we have to be real, right, Steve.
I mean to say that I'm going to go sixty
three and twenty every eighty three picks is I would
be the biggest wire in the world. I mean, enjoy
it while at last, but don't have a false sense
of security with the free picks, because like with all
of us, the premium picks are our best picks of
the day.
Speaker 2: Correct, and some of those free picks are probably making
your best back card right Occasionally, I mean some of
those games might end up on it.
Speaker 1: I try not to make that a practice, so it's
even more impressive. And again I don't I have to
toot my own horn here, right, I don't want people
to take it out of context. But you know it's
even more impressive that I'm sixty two percent on a
pick since May thirteenth, and I also have this free
pick run going as well. It just shows you how
good things have been going, especially in baseball steep.
Speaker 2: So basically you're getting more winners by having both. So
that's he had another reason to get the Best Bets
service because those are stronger plays that long term are
going to win at a higher percentage. This is a
small sample. Ross has been doing this for decades as
of high you know, and once again we rate our games.
Ronald talked about his stronger plays doing better. Free plays
are great and get the best bets and once again
Ross's Early Bird College Football special is good until the
end of this month, a few more days remaining, or
if you want his one year all access, you get
him for free with Ronald or Ronald for free with Ross.
It's a two for one special. The original odd couple,
Ross Benjamin and Ronald Kabang. No promo co needed.
Speaker 1: I'm going to start calling him Ronald kaboom Man. I mean,
he's he's killing the sports books, you know.
Speaker 2: So here's the thing too, though, he just talked about
his WNBA the last years number one at wager talk.
How many free picks have you given out in WNBA recently?
Ross does zero? Exactly?
Speaker 1: Hey, I couldn't even tell you other than Caitlin Clark
who's playing in that league. No disrespect grows women. It's
just that, you know, sometimes we're spread a little too
thin and taking on too much. And God bless him, man,
he's killing it.
Speaker 2: It's another reason that's a great value of getting a
WNBA cap for a guy that's doing baseball, football and basketball.
So it's a fantastic caller. Check it out. Wager Talk
dot com. Ross, I'll let you run go make another
free play video for this week. Steve always a pleasure.
Hey you you behaved well. I'm proud of you. We're
gonna let you go, Ladies and gentlemen, Ross Theboss, wager
Talk dot Com. Thank you for joining us, everybody. This
was last call for those of you that were disappointed
that Ariel was not here. She'll be back next week, sure, Kelly,
and Vegas has taken great care of her right now.
Definitely saw some comments I think it was from David
earlier asking if I had any picks. I actually am
going to do two free baseball videos right after this,
a double video for you on two of your national
TV games for Saturday night, So stay tuned. That's coming
up here within about a half hour. And when he
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