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Speaker 1: What's going on. Thank you so much for listening to

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your support.

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Speaker 2: And it's all suffused with this image of armageddon and violence,

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meaning that if the wrong side wins, it's all over

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for America. And I think there's a lot of worry

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in America about the increasing imagery of violence and dead ends,

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you know, for our democracy.

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Speaker 1: That is Neil Howe. He, along with William Strauss, wrote

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a book in nineteen ninety seven nineteen ninety seven called

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The Fourth Turning, What the Cycles of History tell Us

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about America's next rendezvous with Destiny. It is a work

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of nonfiction. It combines elements of history, political science, sociology,

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and philosophy. It deals with the link between the generational

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theory that was popularized by these two authors and their

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previous research into a thing called seculums saecu lums saculum,

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which is a unit of time, roughly the equivalent of

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a long human life. So it's eighty to one hundred years,

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that eighty to one hundred year chunk, and it's not

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exactly eighty to one hundred, but it's somewhere in that range.

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That chunk is then divided into four parts, and each

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of those parts they call a turning. The first turning

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is the High, the second turning they dubbed the Awakening,

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the third turning is the unraveling, and the fourth turning

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is crisis and the analogy that they have given. And

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William Strauss one of the authors, he passed away years ago,

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but Neil Howe is still alive, and if you are

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interested in going down this rabbit hole and learning more

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about his work and such, and I'll maybe try to

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get him on the show at some point. He has

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his own podcast. He's got a new book out pretty recently,

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I want to say, I think it's called The Fourth

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Turning is here, and so he does a lot of podcasts,

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interviews and stuff, So he's all over the place, so

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you can find out a lot of stuff. He's got

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a website called demography. Sorry, democraphy, Yeah, demography, demography, there

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you go. Demography Unplugged. Demography Unplugged is his website. You

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can find him on Twitter, formerly known as x how

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generation all one word at how generation Howe. And so

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these four seasons they have analogized to are the four turnings. Rather,

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they've analogized to the four seasons, not the band. So

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the high is spring, the awakening is summer, and the

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unraveling is full and the crisis is winter. And by

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the way, this is also a similar theory in economics.

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Have you ever heard of like the green shoots? Or

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how about this one creative destruction in capitalism?

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Speaker 2: Right?

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Speaker 1: What do you look up? What Doge is doing? Right,

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trying to clear out the bureaucracy, the underbrush of government

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that has grown up over the years because it has

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not been removed. Right, So the tending to these man

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made institutions. But also this occurs in nature as well,

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and he talks about this, you know, in the terms

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of just as fire or wildfires restore the forest after

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it destroys it, rivers have to flood every now and again, right,

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and from an ecosystem perspective, these things are necessary and

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if you take a step back. As I was going

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through this over the last week, I was reading through

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a lot of the stuff on the fourth turning, It's

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hard for me not to see the imprint of the

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Divine on this kind of a cycle because it is

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replicated in all of these various places. You see it

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all the time. It's the same thing with the generations

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the human race that it. You know, the whole planet

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is repopulated after about one hundred years, right, because everybody

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who was born has now died and you have a

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whole new population. And by the way, these four turnings

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are impacted by but also impact the people who are

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born in that time. And so the High correlates in

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American history to the World War II generation. The awakening

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is that's the summer, The awakening is the Baby Boomers,

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The unraveling is Generation X, and crisis is now so

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the Millennials and the Gen Zers, and they break off

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into these periods of about twenty twenty five years, these

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four dramatic shifts in the mood of the nation. The

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High is marked by an upbeat mood, conformity, trust in institutions,

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and awakening is marked by increased spirituality and rebellion. There's

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more of a focus there than on individuals. And that's

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the boomers, right. They rejected what was the movie where

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it was like all black and white and it was

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like this perfect little town was that it wasn't Smallville?

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Pleasantville I think was the name of the movie, right,

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And it's all in black and white. And then people

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like break free of the institutions that govern, and they

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like reject, Oh, it's the squares, the mom and dad's

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institutions and whatever, like, I want individual freedom, I want

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to set my own course. I reject these institutions, the

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patriarchy and whatever. Right, And so there's this awakening and

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then the unraveling in which the institutions become distrusted and

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individualism is strong. And that's the generation I grew up

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in the unraveling, where we were like almost literally thrown

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out to left to our own devices, latch key kids

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and such. Right, And there became this hyper focus on

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the individual versus the institutions, which then leads to the

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crisis in which a revolution of some type occurs and

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the old order is destroyed. A new order emerges. During

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the High era that follows again so springtime follows, and

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then the four turnings repeat in that same order. The

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premise of the generational theory from Strauss and how is

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that history, just like nature, and just like human life,

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is cyclical and seasonal. Think about the human life childhood,

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that's you're high, awakening, young, adulthood. I need to find myself, midlife,

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midlife crisis, the unraveling, and then elderhood when your body

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starts breaking down. Each new generation is born during one

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of the four turnings of the seculum, this one hundred

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year period eighty to one hundred year period, and that

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causes that generation to have a specific archetype or a

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specific persona that is shaped by the mood of the

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nation at that time and what they identify in broad

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terms for generational archetypes. And these occur, I think in

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each of the in each of the periods, each of

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the turnings, the profits they call them profits born during

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a high, the nomads born during the awakening, the heroes

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born during the unraveling, and the artists born during the crisis,

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the American high. And by the way they track this

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cycle all the way back through our founders, it repeats

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every eighty to one hundred years, we have the crisis period,

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and in American history that has meant war every time.

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And the crisis is punctuated by some type of conflict,

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whether it's internal, external, or a combination of both. And

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there is no guarantee that we emerge successfully. There's no

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guarantee that the high afterwards is going to be America

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as we know it. All right, So spring is here

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a time of renewal and celebrations. You've got graduations, weddings,

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anniversaries and the special days for mom and dad. Your

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family's making memories that are going to last a lifetime.

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But let me ask you, all of those treasured moments

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from days gone by? Are they hidden away on old

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VCR tapes, eight millimeter films, photos slides? Are they preserved?

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losing the magic of yesterday. At Creative Video, they help

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all the details that create a video. Dot com are

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going over this theory called the Fourth Turning. It's actually

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part of a larger second. The name of the book, yeah,

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The Fourth Turning What the Cycles of History tell us

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about America's next rendezvous with Destiny. Written in nineteen ninety

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seven by William Strauss and Neil Howe. It explores how

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history moves in cycles. It shows how each generation responds

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to the challenges of its time, and that creates patterns

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that these two authors say repeat over decades, and they

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chart all of this out through American history. They also

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apply it over in British history and in other countries

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as well, and they are confident that this is observable

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in virtually all societies. The Fourth Turning, which is what

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Neil Howe says we are in right now. The Fourth

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Turning is the quote crisis or the winter season. Each

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of these last eighty or each of these are twenty

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to twenty five years apiece each of the four seasons,

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and so they basically layer on sort of like the

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human life span, and each phase has its own mood,

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its own challenges that affects how generations interact with their government,

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with their fellow citizens, with other countries, and how they

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respond to crises, because it is the crisis that brings

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the people together in a more cohesive, longer lasting way

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than they were during the last two cycles, the last

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two turnings, the Unraveling and the Awakening. So Neil Howe

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appeared recently about six months ago on a podcast hosted

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by David Lynn, and he was asked by David Lynn,

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what are some of the that the fourth turning the

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crisis is here.

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Speaker 2: We see a growing pessimism about in most high income countries,

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and in fact in a lot of emerging market countries,

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about the long term future well people in their own

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lives and people thinking about their kids' lives, and that

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this is a striking decline. It's a greater pessimism than

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and I've looked back at polls going all the way

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back to the late nineteen seventies, which in America was

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a time of create pessimism, and yet this exceeds that.

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And there were reasons why people were very pessimistic in

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the late seventies. This exceeds that, and particularly the sense

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of long term wrong track. Right. You just all the

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polls indicate that. And along with that, you see this

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growing trend toward populism around the world in politics, often

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combined with a certain sort of ethnocentric authoritarian leadership model.

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I'm thinking particularly in East Asia, South Asia, but you know,

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look at Europe, look at South America, look at the

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United States, right, And these are both facets of the

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same generational trend. We've seen it again and again. This

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is this long eighty year cycle we're talking about, right,

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And what comes at the end of that is this

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time of crisis where we reinvent the system, a system

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which have become very sclerotic and unresponsive because of all

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the time this passed since the last crisis. Right.

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Speaker 1: So he argues that when you look at the historical records,

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violence and populism often rise in tandem, they rise together,

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and they say, you know, he says, you go past

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a certain point and then there is no going back.

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In the crisis phase, globalism starts declining. In the third turning,

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which is the unraveling, which is gen X, globalism starts

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to decline. Populism rises in the fourth a greater focus internally,

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a greater like make America great, for example, we don't

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need all of these other countries. We got to focus

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on ourselves and stuff. I'm not saying any of this

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to disparage I'm pointing out this is his theory, and

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the events around us seem to be lining up with

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what their theory predicts. And in case you are interested,

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they did make a series of predictions right. The biggest

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ones that there would be a major financial crisis that

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occurred sometime in the two thousands or twenty tens, there

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would be a pandemic, a tea party movement that they

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literally called a tea party movement aimed at limiting the

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federal debt would arise, and Russia would invade a former

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Soviet state. They predicted all of that ninety seven. And then,

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of course, the fifth prediction is war in the crisis.

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William Strauss Neil Howe generational theory or the SHGT. I'm

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not going to use that as an acronym, but anyway,

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it labels the third turning as the unraveling. This is

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the period that follows an era of high civic order,

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which is the second turning. So you have a lot

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of civic order and it precedes the crisis. They say

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that the fourth turning, the crisis phase that we are

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in now, began in about two thousand and eight with

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the global financial crisis. The unraveling began in the mid

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to late eighties. And the unraveling is punctuated by characteristics

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like individualism over collectivism. Yeah that's me. Society emphasizes personal

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autonomy and self expression over collective unity. Weak institutions. Public

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trust in large institutions erodes, and these institutions often failed

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to inspire confidence or seem capable of addressing major societal issues.

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Cultural fragmentation. The unraveling is marked by cultural division, political polarization,

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a general sense of disunity. The unraveling the third turning

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is also punctuated by or characterized by decadence and excess.

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The society may focus more on material wealth, entertainment, and consumption,

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sometimes leading to excess and neglect of deeper values or

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community bonds, and decreasing social order. Unlike the cooperative spirit

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of the second turning, the unraveling tends to see increased

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skepticism and division among different segments of society. That's the

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third turning. The author of the book, Neil Howe, the demographer,

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He says, we are in the fourth turning. The crisis

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that begin in two thousand and eight. He says it

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will last till about twenty thirty. The fourth turning is

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a cycle that tracks with the aging, he says, of populations.

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Speaker 2: The bottom line is is that you eventually reach a

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time where absolutely no one, alie remembers how institutions actually

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dealt with crisis. Right. It's at that time where the

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crisis is again most likely. And that is that is

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absolutely a pattern of history, and that was part of

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the whole point of the book is to see how

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that works. And this is why I talk about different

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types of generations. You know, why we have boomer like

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generations born right after a crisis. You know, usually coming

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of age, you know, storming against the strong institutions built

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by their parents, you know, often their war winning fathers.

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And how after that the system disintegrates, right, we call

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this the unraveling. We become a much more individualistic society.

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We have a we have it find it very difficult

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to respond cohesively and collectively to collective problems. And ultimately

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that leads us into the fourth turning, which is where

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we have to reinvent ourselves under an urgent threat. And

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usually that threat involves organized conflict.

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Speaker 1: Right, And again, the types of organized conflict can be

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internal or external, and it can be both at the

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same time. So I mentioned the five predictions, four of

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which came true. The fifth is a nullification crisis that

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they predicted, and he actually cited immigration as one of

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these as one of the areas where this might occur.

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And at the time, this was a couple of years ago.

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He talked about Biden versus the state of Texas in

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trying remember when Texas put up the barricades along the

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Rio grand to try to stop the flow of illegal immigration.

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So that wasn't quite an nullification argument, but it was

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symptomatic of the larger point, which is that you eventually

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have local or state jurisdictions that refuse to comply with

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the federal laws. This is what I see occurring with

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Gary not my fault, McFadden, This kind of mentality that

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we're not going to follow your law because we disagree

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with it. The same thing happened. This is the mayor

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of Boston, Michelle Wu in her State of the City address.

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Speaker 2: We stand with immigrants, you belong here, So almost want

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to see that. Then MiG Boston doesn't back down.

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Speaker 1: All right, So what is she arguing for nullification? We

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are not backing down and how cited like the Texas example.

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But there are other ways that this manifests. But the

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nullification crisis is the fifth prediction that they made.

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Speaker 2: Nullification is an old theory which really dates back to

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the original Constitution. And it was there by the way,

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with the anti federalists who were arguing against Hamilton Madison

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and Jay Right the federalist papers. They were arguing that

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the states should have more autonomy, they should preserve more autonomy.

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If there was a law or an edict by the

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federal government that an individual state really did not want,

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it should be able to excuse itself from it, right.

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I mean, this is the idea that we are a

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truly a federal republic and that states should have their

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own maneuvering room. You know, we came together as separate nations,

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so to speak, to form the United States. And this

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was actually promulgated by both Jefferson and Madison Jane in

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Kentucky Resolutions in response to what John Adams did with

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the alien sedition loss. This is in the late seventeen nineties,

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and it came back again and again in the ante

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Bella Marea, with Calhoun and the tariff crisis, and ultimately

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with the Civil War, which led us into I mean

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that was the ultimate and not just nullification, but secession. Right,

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this is when the states decided to secede. But it

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has come up since then. In other words, at what

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point can a state decide to opt out of certain

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federal arrangements?

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Speaker 1: Does any of that anything that he said in there

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sound familiar to our time right now? I heard alien

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and sedition acts, I heard tariffs. I heard states not

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wanting to comply. It can be immigration, it could be

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educational issues, right, men playing on women's teams, and states

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not wanting to go along with that taxes regulation, right,

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one of the things you know, policy has expressed, you know,

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through ordnance and such. I mentioned this at the last hour,

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at the end of the last hour, that three uptown

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Charlotte parks and a section of the Little Sugar Creek

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Greenway in midtown will have armed security guards starting this

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summer to address safety concerns over increased crime at urban

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parks in greenways. Ramer Beard and Park, First Ward Park,

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fourth Ward Park, and King's Drive section of the Little

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Sugar Creek Greenway will have dedicated armed security personnel starting

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July first. According to Greg Klemmer of County Parks and Wreck,

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it's the latest move to increase safety for park and

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greenway goers in areas where there have been widely publicized

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crimes in recent years. The Charlotte Mecklenburg Police Department announced

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that it was increasing its patrols of urban parks last year,

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and park officials installed signs to help walkers and runners

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and bikers better understand where they are in case they

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need to report an emergency. And here's the quote from

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Klemmer from County Parks and rec In our urban parks,

358
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what we have seen is we need more on the ground,

359
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people physically sitting there to manage all the concerns and

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issues that we have with our unhoused population and youth violence. Right,

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the systems that were built decades ago are not functioning

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correctly anymore, and people have no sense of unity. And

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this gets also to the concept of anarcho tyranny, anarchy

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and tyranny. Basically, it was a term coined by Sam

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Francis and then sort of I don't know, conceptualized further

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by Patrick moynihan and Charles Krauthammer. And in nineteen ninety three,

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Sam Francis introduced the concept in an article Anarcho Tyranny USA,

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published in Chronicles, a magazine of American culture, and he

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criticized the government's tendency to neglect enforcement of fundamental protective laws,

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leading to societal disorder or anarchy, while simultaneously imposing oppressive

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regulations on law abiding citizens aka tyranny.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: He illustrated the paradox by highlighting instances where authorities focus

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on minor infractions like seat belt violations while failing to

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address more serious criminal activities, and that undermines both public

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safety as well as individual freedoms. And so when do

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people say, you know what, we're out the social contract

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is null and void. That's the nullification, all right. If

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you're listening to this show, you know I try to

380
00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:58,720
keep up with all sorts of current events, and I

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00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:00,920
know you do too. And you probably heard me say

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get your news from multiple sources. Why well, because it's

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00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:07,839
how you detect media bias, which is why I've been

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00:28:07,839 --> 00:28:11,440
so impressed with ground News. It's an app, and it's

385
00:28:11,519 --> 00:28:14,319
a website, and it combines news from around the world

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00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:17,839
in one place so you can compare coverage and verify information.

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00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:21,799
You can check it out at check dot ground, dot news,

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00:28:22,279 --> 00:28:25,400
slash pete. I put the link in the podcast description too.

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00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:28,079
I started using ground News a few months ago and

390
00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:30,799
more recently chose to work with them as an affiliate

391
00:28:30,839 --> 00:28:34,160
because it lets me see clearly how stories get covered

392
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:37,160
and by whom. The blind spot feature shows you which

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00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:40,039
stories get ignored by the left and the right. See

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00:28:40,079 --> 00:28:45,119
for yourself check dot ground, dot news, slash pete. Subscribe

395
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:48,039
through that link and you'll get fifteen percent off any subscription.

396
00:28:48,359 --> 00:28:51,079
I use the Vantage plan to get unlimited access to

397
00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:54,640
every feature. Your subscription then not only helps my podcast

398
00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:57,000
but it also supports ground news as they make the

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00:28:57,079 --> 00:29:03,960
media landscape more transparentcussing the Fourth Turning theory by Strauss

400
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:07,480
and how Strauss has passed away, how still alive. He's

401
00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:10,240
all over the place on podcasts, so you can definitely

402
00:29:10,279 --> 00:29:14,759
find more about him if you go looking on the YouTube.

403
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:17,119
One of the things he talks about is that you

404
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:22,559
never know what's going to be the conflict in the

405
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:26,119
crisis phase in the fourth Turning. As I mentioned, it

406
00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:31,079
could be immigration, education issues, taxes, regulations, whatever, could be war, right,

407
00:29:31,119 --> 00:29:35,279
but that's the conflict in American history usually is war,

408
00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:40,319
either civil war or world war. But it's every eighty

409
00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:42,279
years or so. It's a war.

410
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Speaker 2: But what will happen is they will not enforce it.

411
00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:49,119
Speaker 1: Oh, hang on a second. The administ he's talking about

412
00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:52,839
the nullification crisis being the fifth prediction that has not

413
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:56,319
come true yet, but that is what they predicted in

414
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their nineteen ninety seven book. All of their other predictions

415
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:02,920
basically came true. This is the last one, and there

416
00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:05,599
would be some sort of some sort of a nullification

417
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:08,039
crisis in this phase.

418
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Speaker 2: But what will happen is they will not enforce it.

419
00:30:12,759 --> 00:30:16,400
The administration will say well, you must enforce it, and

420
00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:18,319
the states will kind of you know, a number of

421
00:30:18,319 --> 00:30:21,319
states will ban together and they say, well, we actually don't.

422
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:24,920
And ultimately, you see where this leads, David, is the

423
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:27,880
states saying effect, we're not going to enforce it. We're

424
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:29,920
here on the ground, we're not going to collect this

425
00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:33,599
revenue or enforce these regulations. And in fact that the

426
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communication of the federal government. What are you going to

427
00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:41,279
do about it? You know, And that then becomes a

428
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standoff of authority. And then if the if the federal

429
00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:48,279
government does not enforce its will, well, then of course

430
00:30:49,119 --> 00:30:52,799
the gate is open. Then states can start doing other things,

431
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:54,839
you know what I mean. And by the way, this

432
00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:59,880
came up historically, David, in the Civil War when the

433
00:31:00,079 --> 00:31:02,920
states seceded, and this is you know, they all succeeded.

434
00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:06,519
They actually formed a confederacy even before Abraham Lincoln even

435
00:31:06,599 --> 00:31:10,039
got into office. We swore in presidents later then we

436
00:31:10,079 --> 00:31:15,079
swore them in in March, right, so that five months

437
00:31:15,559 --> 00:31:18,319
everything had already happened before he even came into office.

438
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And many people came to him and said, let the

439
00:31:23,559 --> 00:31:29,200
South go. Many abolitionists. David said to Abraham Lincoln, let

440
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:32,680
the South Go. I mean they're gone. Now we can

441
00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:35,000
actually do all the reforms that we wanted in the

442
00:31:35,079 --> 00:31:38,480
United States. And I think this is going to be

443
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what causes the issue to escalate because it will be

444
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very clear that the president and his or her party

445
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:51,240
will not be allowed to back down. They can't back down.

446
00:31:51,279 --> 00:31:53,400
They will lose all credibility if they back down. So

447
00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:55,880
they got to step it up. The other side will

448
00:31:55,880 --> 00:31:59,240
step it up. You see how this works. These things

449
00:31:59,319 --> 00:32:05,920
never art intending to be a conflict, but they end

450
00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:08,599
up as a conflict because both sides can't back down.

451
00:32:09,519 --> 00:32:12,079
Speaker 1: He also added that throughout history he has not seen

452
00:32:12,160 --> 00:32:18,039
an example of a peaceful secession anywhere. So if this

453
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is the crisis, then this is how an internal conflict

454
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would arise. The fourth Turning brings significant challenges, outlined as

455
00:32:27,359 --> 00:32:34,599
economic instability, political division, and social unrest. However, there also

456
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:40,519
are opportunities, unique opportunities rebuilding trust. Because the old system fails,

457
00:32:41,039 --> 00:32:44,119
there is a chance to create a new, more trustworthy institution,

458
00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:49,119
innovative solutions. It can spark creativity because you're trying to

459
00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:52,960
combat some sort of a crisis, and so you innovate

460
00:32:54,359 --> 00:32:58,119
community engagement. People are more likely to come together to

461
00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:02,599
solve problems that are at a very large scale, and

462
00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:05,559
so it could lead to a new era of cooperation,

463
00:33:06,599 --> 00:33:10,599
a collapse of existing structures, which could create chaos and uncertainty.

464
00:33:10,599 --> 00:33:13,960
But it also could lead to a rebirth of civic engagement.

465
00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:21,960
There are some positives. The fourth Turning can deeply affect

466
00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:27,440
society and culture, and you could have increas civic engagement, right,

467
00:33:27,599 --> 00:33:29,920
a shift in values. He says, every time the fourth

468
00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:35,599
Turning occurs, conventional norms take hold again. So there's a

469
00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:40,599
reversion back to what historically would be a conventional norm

470
00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:45,119
and potential for conflict as different groups vie for power

471
00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:51,400
and influence. So that's the fourth Turning in a nutshell.

472
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:53,759
All right, that'll do it for this episode. Thank you

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so much for listening. I could not do the show

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without your support and the support of the businesses that

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advertise on the podcast, so if you'd like, please support

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00:34:01,559 --> 00:34:03,240
them too and tell them you heard it here. You

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can also become a patron at my Patreon page or

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go to dpetealanarshow dot com. Again, thank you so much

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for listening, and don't break anything while I'm gone.