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<v Speaker 1>If you want to get the show early and ad free,

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<v Speaker 1>head on over to the peak Kinyonas show dot com.

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<v Speaker 1>There you can choose from where you wish to support me.

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<v Speaker 1>Now listen very carefully. I've had some people ask me

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<v Speaker 1>about this, even though I think on the last ad

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<v Speaker 1>I stated it pretty clearly. If you want an RSS feed,

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<v Speaker 1>dot com. You'll see all the ways that you can

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<v Speaker 1>support me there. And I just want to thank everyone.

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<v Speaker 1>It's because of you that I can put out the

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<v Speaker 1>amount of material that I do. I can do what

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<v Speaker 1>I'm doing with doctor Johnson on two hundred Years Together

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<v Speaker 1>and everything else, the things that Thomas and I are

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<v Speaker 1>doing together on kindinal philosophy, it's all because of you.

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<v Speaker 1>And yeah, I mean, I'll never be able to thank

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<v Speaker 1>you enough. So thank you. The pekan Yonashow dot com.

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<v Speaker 1>Everything's there. I want to welcome everyone back to the

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<v Speaker 1>Peaking Yona's show. This is going to be part two

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<v Speaker 1>of Thomas talking about Victor Suveroff and Huckin Hoffman's work.

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<v Speaker 1>So Thomas, I hand it over to you.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, thanks for hosting me. I think I remember where

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<v Speaker 2>we left off, but forgive me if this is redundant.

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<v Speaker 2>Is something that's fundamentally important as of the date of

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<v Speaker 2>Barbarosa's commencement June twenty second, nineteen forty one, it's important

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<v Speaker 2>to understand the strategic situated and as of Stalin and

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<v Speaker 2>the Soviet Union. Key was the waging of aggressive war

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<v Speaker 2>against Poland and Finland. Obviously, Stalin's plan and this was

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<v Speaker 2>confirmed by Khrushchev, was, you know, in the immediate aftermath

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<v Speaker 2>of the assault and the Japanese at Chalkin Goal, which

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<v Speaker 2>in the opinion of Hoffman and I agree with this,

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<v Speaker 2>that's what started World War two and suvar ofw of

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<v Speaker 2>without saying it abides that perspective. The Molotov Ribbentrop packed

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<v Speaker 2>which Stalin confided to the Pullet Burrow as well as

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<v Speaker 2>the Kruz chief, was that that would embolden the Hitler

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<v Speaker 2>to sue for war with Poland, which he wouldn't have

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<v Speaker 2>done had there been the risk of a two front war,

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<v Speaker 2>yet Germany's position was precarious, overextended. Stalin didn't think that,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, Germany could truly stand up to the UK

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<v Speaker 2>and France. He grossly underestimated the Wehrmacht's offensive power. But

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<v Speaker 2>even in the event of a German victory, his reasoning

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<v Speaker 2>was that, you know, the French army would have its

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<v Speaker 2>back broken, Germany would be on this footing a permanent

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<v Speaker 2>hostility caught for the United Kingdom and Europe would be

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<v Speaker 2>the Communists for the taking. You know that this was,

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<v Speaker 2>in Stalin's words, to cruise chieft. Hitler was now wrapped

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<v Speaker 2>around our little finger. And one of the reasons for

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<v Speaker 2>this confidence or over confidence, you know, and I think

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<v Speaker 2>I mentioned before as of Barbarossa, Stalin had increased expanded

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<v Speaker 2>the territory of the Soviet Union by four hundred and

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<v Speaker 2>twenty six thousand square kilometers. Does a quill went to

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<v Speaker 2>the service area of the German right because it stood

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<v Speaker 2>in nineteen nineteen and especially a petular significance the aggressive

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<v Speaker 2>war of the Soviets waged against Poland and Finland and

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<v Speaker 2>what amounted to the extortionate annexation of the Baltics, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>with waiting Estonia pressuring Romania into further territorial concessions. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>the Soviet Union really on September third, nineteen thirty nine,

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<v Speaker 2>it was in the strongest position out of all major powers,

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<v Speaker 2>and the Soviet Union became a combatant, you know, on

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<v Speaker 2>September seventeenth, when the Soviets also assaulted Poland, and of

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<v Speaker 2>course there was a deafening silence eminent from emanating from

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<v Speaker 2>London in the way of that deployment, which is telling

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<v Speaker 2>in and of itself. But you know, this myth that

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<v Speaker 2>Stalin was somehow afraid of Hitler's posterous for the reasons

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<v Speaker 2>just enumerated, and it's essential to understand, I mean demonster

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<v Speaker 2>of this is the posture of the Soviet Union diplomatically

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<v Speaker 2>and militarily towards the German Reich. And secondly the pattern

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<v Speaker 2>of military deployment. And I'll get into that in a moment,

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<v Speaker 2>But in terms of the former November twelfth and thirteenth,

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<v Speaker 2>nineteen forty, you know, the view from Moscow was that

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<v Speaker 2>the war was going very badly for Germany. Italy was

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<v Speaker 2>not performing well in the relevant battle theaters, which was

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<v Speaker 2>compromising Germany's position in the Mediterranean, which Hitler had counted

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<v Speaker 2>on as a hedge, you know, against the British Empire.

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<v Speaker 2>There was no indication of a resolution of the war

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<v Speaker 2>with the United Kingdom. You know, Jeremy's fear of influence

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<v Speaker 2>was totally static. You know, Operations Sea Lion was a

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<v Speaker 2>strategic ruse and even were it not, it would have

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<v Speaker 2>been a bloodbath. You know. So November twelfth and thirteenth,

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<v Speaker 2>Stalin directed Molotov in Berlin to transmit to Hitler through

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<v Speaker 2>ribentraup a demand for the expansion of the Soviets fear

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<v Speaker 2>of influence. Basically, Stalin said that he demanded freedom to

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<v Speaker 2>deploy in Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Yugoslavia and Greece, as well

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<v Speaker 2>as Finland. And he also said that, you know, the

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<v Speaker 2>Soviet Union had a right to deploy on the Swedish frontier.

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<v Speaker 2>This is incredibly belligerent. Essentially all of southeastern Europe plus

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<v Speaker 2>Finland and a piece of Scandinavia proper. Stalin just declared

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<v Speaker 2>that this is now my sphere of influence. And if

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<v Speaker 2>you meet this challenge with the hostile deployment, its war.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean that sound like a man who's afraid of

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<v Speaker 2>Eadolf Hitler and the German Reich. You know, in Stalin's mind,

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<v Speaker 2>there was absolutely no possibility of the Wehrmacht assaulting the

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<v Speaker 2>Soviet Union, even in terms of parody, let alone from

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<v Speaker 2>a position of strategic superiority. Which is somewhat fascinating because

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<v Speaker 2>this idea that oh, the Germans underestimated the Soviet Union,

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<v Speaker 2>they didn't at all, and stowfully gets into that Holder's

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<v Speaker 2>report on the eve of Barbarossa. And Holder had actually

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<v Speaker 2>written he'd written an assessment in nineteen thirty seven of

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<v Speaker 2>Soviet forces and being and capabilities. It was remarkably accurate,

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<v Speaker 2>and von Mannstein and good Darien their assessments quite literally

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<v Speaker 2>in the month before Barbarossa. The Soviet forces and being

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<v Speaker 2>were exactly what they estimated them to be. In reality,

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<v Speaker 2>it was Stalin who was looking west and saying that,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, Germany has no meaningful offensive capability and the

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<v Speaker 2>mighty Soviet Union has nothing to fear, and this is

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<v Speaker 2>the key to why the Soviets took such horrific attrition

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<v Speaker 2>during barbaross Further relevant to context here, I can't remember

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<v Speaker 2>if I got into this or not. There was a

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<v Speaker 2>discrete mobilization phase throughout the Soviet Union between November nineteen forty,

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<v Speaker 2>when this demand that I just enumerated was issued to

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<v Speaker 2>Ribbon traup to deliver to Hitler by way of Molotov

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<v Speaker 2>on order of Stalin. Between November ninety forty and the

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<v Speaker 2>day of Barbarosa, a massive and unprecedented arms build up

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<v Speaker 2>took place in the Soviet Union. This included, as of

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<v Speaker 2>the onset of hostilities, the rhetoric of possess no less

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<v Speaker 2>than twenty four thousand tanks, including close to two thousand

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<v Speaker 2>T thirty fours, which were technically a medium tank, but

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<v Speaker 2>they were the all around best tank of the Second

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<v Speaker 2>World War. I don't think that's arguable. You know, the

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<v Speaker 2>air forces of the Red Army had over twenty three

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<v Speaker 2>thousand aircraft, or thirty seven hundred of which were considered

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<v Speaker 2>to be cutting edge fighters. The Red Army had close

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<v Speaker 2>to one hundred and fifty thousand artillery pieces. The Red Navy,

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<v Speaker 2>including a substantial fleet of surface ships of varying types.

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<v Speaker 2>They had close to three hundred submarines, and submarines are

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<v Speaker 2>expressly offensive. There are no defensive submarines, and this man

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<v Speaker 2>as Hoffman raises in his book, the Soviets not only

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<v Speaker 2>a larger fleet of submarines than any other country in

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<v Speaker 2>the world, but they outnumbered the Royal Navy more than

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<v Speaker 2>fourfold in terms of their number of subs. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>this is the most powerful offensive military element the world

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<v Speaker 2>has ever seen, you know. So Stalin was essentially fearless

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<v Speaker 2>and viewed himself as the imminent master of this planet

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<v Speaker 2>in geostrategic terms, as of barbaros as well as an

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<v Speaker 2>ideological ones. And we're going to get into that too.

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<v Speaker 2>Something essential to understand about the Soviet culture. Stalin was

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<v Speaker 2>keenly aware of what had befallen the Jacobin Revolution. He

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<v Speaker 2>was also keenly aware of the changing dynamics of of

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<v Speaker 2>ideological cultures within great powers. You know. He realized that,

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<v Speaker 2>for example, Japan was on the ascendency. He realized that

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<v Speaker 2>the German Raich had intense energies that it was drawing from,

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<v Speaker 2>even though he viewed them as geostrategically weak and compromised.

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<v Speaker 2>He understood that the United Kingdom was undergoing a terrible

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<v Speaker 2>existential crisis and that their empire is structured was essentially obsolescent.

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<v Speaker 2>And this is one of the reasons why there's been

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<v Speaker 2>a series of revolts you know, nascent as well as

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<v Speaker 2>well developed and realized, you know, in the years before

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<v Speaker 2>the Great War and then in the Inner War years

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<v Speaker 2>up to the then president, you know, and socialism in

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<v Speaker 2>one country that that was something of that was something

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<v Speaker 2>of a propaganda cliche. Donan invoked the sort of give

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<v Speaker 2>a branding to you know, the kind of punctuated disturbances

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<v Speaker 2>of this mass and megacital restructuring of Russian society and

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<v Speaker 2>the Soviet state which was becoming a superpower, as well

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<v Speaker 2>as to you know, assuage the Western Powers which were

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<v Speaker 2>very much doing his bidding at that moment. Stalin was

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<v Speaker 2>very much engaged with the Common tern that had not

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<v Speaker 2>changed and in the planning for what was to be

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<v Speaker 2>the assault on Europe. In the aftermath of the Icebreaker conflict,

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<v Speaker 2>Stalin he called back the Russian delegation to the Common

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<v Speaker 2>Turn and he called the common Terns representatives to Moscow

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<v Speaker 2>to advise them of what was imminently going to happen.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, the Soviet Union needed to realize the World Revolution,

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<v Speaker 2>to survive as well as to consolidate its superpower status,

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<v Speaker 2>which was not just burgaining, but was being actively realized also,

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<v Speaker 2>And I realized I've probably got a bias for testimonial evidence,

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<v Speaker 2>especially they're not exclusively in discerning the motives of men

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<v Speaker 2>in command roles. But there's not there's not. The direct

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<v Speaker 2>testimony is more reliable than circumstantial evidence unless it contradicts

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<v Speaker 2>the manifest weight of extrinsic material facts outside the parameters

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<v Speaker 2>those declarations and what Stalin said his biographer, Colonel General Bokaganov,

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<v Speaker 2>he word for word by Lakov reproduced the speech that

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<v Speaker 2>Stalin issued fourth on May fifth, nineteen forty one, and

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<v Speaker 2>according to Bolkoganov, the Leader made it quote. The Leader

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<v Speaker 2>made it unmistakably clear. War is inevitable in the future.

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<v Speaker 2>We must be ready for the unconditional destruction of German fascism.

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<v Speaker 2>The world be fought on enemy terror ratory, and victory

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<v Speaker 2>will be achieved with a few casualties. And as we

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<v Speaker 2>got into last week, and as I think we've raised

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<v Speaker 2>before in discussion of World War Two, it was a

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<v Speaker 2>matter of formal doctrine that the Red Army was an

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<v Speaker 2>offensive purposed element. Its primary mission orientation was as the

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<v Speaker 2>standard bearer of the revolution. And it never struck a

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<v Speaker 2>defensive posture as a matter of doctrine by choice, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>And I've made the point before. I believe Stalin is

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<v Speaker 2>probably the single most powerful man who ever lived. And

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<v Speaker 2>the momentum that the Communist International had at this moment

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<v Speaker 2>was ed Zenith. I'd argue Stalin had to abide that

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<v Speaker 2>role or he would have been replaced by a man

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<v Speaker 2>who would have you know. It was a convergence of

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<v Speaker 2>ideological imperatives and geostrategic realities in a way that is

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<v Speaker 2>very rare but was sort of inextricably and splendidly bound

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<v Speaker 2>up at this juncture. And I think we talked before

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<v Speaker 2>about the secret real I'm jumping around a bit, but

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<v Speaker 2>I'm trying to corral the evidence in categorical capacities. The

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<v Speaker 2>secret meeting with the polic Bureau, and this is when

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<v Speaker 2>the Common Turn delegation was also present in August nineteenth,

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<v Speaker 2>nineteen thirty nine, you know, in the concominant with the

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<v Speaker 2>assault on the Japanese Imperial Army at calcm Goal. This

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<v Speaker 2>meeting that Stalin called the polit Burow and the Russian

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<v Speaker 2>section of the Common Tern. Stalin declared that the time

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<v Speaker 2>had come to quote apply the torch of war to

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<v Speaker 2>the European powder keg. This is when Stalin declared, if

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<v Speaker 2>we accept the German proposal for the non aggression picked,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, Hitler will naturally attack Poland the intervention of

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<v Speaker 2>France and England will be inevitable. The resulting, in Shalin's words,

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<v Speaker 2>serious and arrest and disorder would lead to a punctuated

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<v Speaker 2>destabilization of Western Europe, yet without the Soviet Union being

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<v Speaker 2>drawn into the conflict until they permissively opted do and

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<v Speaker 2>Stalin referred to what he declared in nineteen twenty five

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<v Speaker 2>with respect to the international strategy. You know, the moment

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<v Speaker 2>is nigh that we we can pursue the bultimization of

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<v Speaker 2>Europe by way of an advantageous entry into the war

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<v Speaker 2>through a broad spectrum field of activity which had now

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<v Speaker 2>the potential of which had now opened up for their

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<v Speaker 2>realization of the world Revolution. And of course, when minutes

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<v Speaker 2>from this meeting and the speech were smuggled out and

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<v Speaker 2>were obtained by the French news agency Havas by way

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<v Speaker 2>of Geneva, you know, and it went, it was, it

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<v Speaker 2>was published, and then the Moscow immediately when in damage

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<v Speaker 2>control and stalin apologists and propagandas, particularly in London but

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<v Speaker 2>also in the United States. You know, they they started

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<v Speaker 2>immediately claiming that this is fascist propaganda and this, this

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<v Speaker 2>isn't this isn't true, you know. So, I mean this

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<v Speaker 2>is important also like when you read books by guys

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<v Speaker 2>Chris Bellamy comes to mind. But they're legion these historians

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<v Speaker 2>who claim, oh Stuvarov is a liar, there's no evidence

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<v Speaker 2>for these things. They're redacting a huge amount of evidence,

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<v Speaker 2>or they're just not including it and would question they say, oh,

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<v Speaker 2>that that's just propaganda. They're just not addressing it. And

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<v Speaker 2>that's incredible, you know. I mean, it'd be like, like

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<v Speaker 2>imagine somewhat more approximately, like let's say I was writing

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<v Speaker 2>a history of of the American War in Iraq from

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<v Speaker 2>two thousand and three eleven, and it'd be like if

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<v Speaker 2>I was categorically redacting things that President Bush and Rumsfeld

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<v Speaker 2>said in conversations they had and just declaring that, well,

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<v Speaker 2>it's not important, or that that's just something liberals say

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<v Speaker 2>or allege. I mean, people would laugh at me or

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<v Speaker 2>they'd say that's ridiculous. But in the case of you know,

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<v Speaker 2>Barbarossa and you know, the icebreaker hypothesis. That's exactly what

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<v Speaker 2>they do, you know, and you're just supposed to accept it.

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<v Speaker 2>This is this is very abnormal, even accounting for the

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<v Speaker 2>fact that research standards and things are often compromised for

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<v Speaker 2>ideological and political reasons. But this seems tangential, but it's

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00:22:49.000 --> 00:22:58.960
<v Speaker 2>essential to understanding Suvarov's and Hoffmann's points. We've got to

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<v Speaker 2>ask why Barbara was soutanctically successful for the Rmont and

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<v Speaker 2>what that means, because this is sort of the key

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<v Speaker 2>in my opinion. The Soviets were planning an assault on

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<v Speaker 2>Romania in the autumn of nineteen forty one, and if

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<v Speaker 2>you know how to interpret military deployments, this should be clear.

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<v Speaker 2>But also if you're going to assault Germany from then

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<v Speaker 2>extant frontiers, you're gonna do so from the Baltic and

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<v Speaker 2>you're gonna do so through Romania. And of course Germany

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<v Speaker 2>was totally dependent on Romanian petroleum. That's one of the

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<v Speaker 2>reasons Hitler cultivated the French shup events in so closely

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<v Speaker 2>Antonescu held the Knight's Cross. There was very good offices

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<v Speaker 2>between him and Germany. Anyway, for cultural reasons, for ideological

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<v Speaker 2>reasons and other things. But he and Hitler, despite the

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00:24:13.240 --> 00:24:17.720
<v Speaker 2>linguistic barrier, they were very close friends too, and Antonescu

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<v Speaker 2>was Hitler's strongest allah, I believe, you know, and a

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<v Speaker 2>close to a quarter million Romanians fought, you know, for

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<v Speaker 2>the Axis cause in the east, which for a country

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<v Speaker 2>the size of Romania, that's remarkable. But army groups South

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<v Speaker 2>deployed from Romania, and this, if this was a very

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<v Speaker 2>delicate issue because Soviet intelligence, which was actually very good,

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<v Speaker 2>this the deployment to Romania. The way Hitler, the ruse

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<v Speaker 2>Hitler was able to pull off was that the unstable

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<v Speaker 2>situation in yugoslav was what was drawing German forces at

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<v Speaker 2>scale to be deployed there. But also obviously, through Ledgered

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<v Speaker 2>Maine and other things, OKW was effectively able to hide

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<v Speaker 2>the scale at which forces were being a mass there.

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<v Speaker 2>But you know, not only was it a staging ground

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<v Speaker 2>for Barbarosa, but Hitler was react with anxiety that the

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<v Speaker 2>Soviets were in with salt Romania because they were so

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<v Speaker 2>these forces down there at a dual role. They were

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00:25:31.359 --> 00:25:35.359
<v Speaker 2>purposed for an offensive mission, but they were also there

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<v Speaker 2>to as a bulwark against a army assault, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>at least so that they, you know, that there'd be

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<v Speaker 2>enough time to reinforce and and not just you know,

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<v Speaker 2>endure a collapse of a critical front, which on top

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<v Speaker 2>of the geostrategic menace that also of deprived Germany really

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<v Speaker 2>of it, it's only source of petroleum and represent quantities

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<v Speaker 2>to feel the war machine. But what this led to

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<v Speaker 2>was there was massive Soviet deployments in the Baltic and

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<v Speaker 2>in Ukraine through the Romanian frontier. So when the Wehrmacht assaulted,

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00:26:24.559 --> 00:26:30.160
<v Speaker 2>the road to Moscow was basically undefended. Okay, that's one

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<v Speaker 2>of the reasons why Holder and Manstein they were beside

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<v Speaker 2>themselves because they were telling Hitler, we need to move

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<v Speaker 2>on Moscow now. We can't wait, you know, we can't

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<v Speaker 2>wait for the weather to turn, and we can't wait

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<v Speaker 2>for the Soviets to reconstitute and affect a deployment in

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<v Speaker 2>depth on the path to Moscow, you know. And as

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<v Speaker 2>the deployment schema in Ukraine, the Army Group South was

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<v Speaker 2>exponentially outnumbered, but the Red Army elements there they were

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<v Speaker 2>deployed in an offensive pattern. And if you know anything

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<v Speaker 2>about the way the Soviet Union fought and the way

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00:27:24.400 --> 00:27:27.559
<v Speaker 2>the Armforce of the Russian Federation fights, and they very

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00:27:27.599 --> 00:27:30.079
<v Speaker 2>much scaled down way to they obviously and with very

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00:27:30.119 --> 00:27:41.880
<v Speaker 2>different localized combined arms platforms. Deep battle is it's it's

303
00:27:41.920 --> 00:27:46.440
<v Speaker 2>it's dependent upon a fixed deployment schema for it to work, okay,

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00:27:47.079 --> 00:27:49.599
<v Speaker 2>And the way the Red Army deployed offensively, and this

305
00:27:49.720 --> 00:27:53.200
<v Speaker 2>is what they did when the tide turned and after Kursk,

306
00:27:53.799 --> 00:27:59.039
<v Speaker 2>this is how they assaulted Berlin. The offensive deployment schema

307
00:27:59.160 --> 00:28:04.359
<v Speaker 2>is by heavy use of shock armies, a Soviet shock army.

308
00:28:04.640 --> 00:28:09.200
<v Speaker 2>They were larded with firepower and totally front loaded. Okay.

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<v Speaker 2>So when Army Group South engaged the Red Army through

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<v Speaker 2>the ky Of Corridor, they were engaging this forward element

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00:28:21.400 --> 00:28:24.319
<v Speaker 2>that was loaded down with firepower that was supposed to

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00:28:24.440 --> 00:28:27.960
<v Speaker 2>break through the mainline of resistance, but that had a

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00:28:27.960 --> 00:28:32.279
<v Speaker 2>limited operational capacity, often of only a few days. Then

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00:28:33.039 --> 00:28:36.400
<v Speaker 2>they were to be rapidly reinforced by fresh elements who

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00:28:36.440 --> 00:28:39.759
<v Speaker 2>would continually assault in waves, and then when that shock

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00:28:39.799 --> 00:28:45.000
<v Speaker 2>element was was re equipped and refitted, they would smash

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<v Speaker 2>through again. But obviously, if the Wehrmacht assaults with mass

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<v Speaker 2>armored columns, when you're deployed offensively, with your floaded shock

319
00:29:00.960 --> 00:29:06.279
<v Speaker 2>army as the sharp punk They're gonna smash that shock army,

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00:29:06.400 --> 00:29:09.480
<v Speaker 2>and then they're gonna cut through your reinforcement elements like butter,

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00:29:10.720 --> 00:29:14.160
<v Speaker 2>you know. And as they break through wave after wave,

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00:29:17.720 --> 00:29:20.680
<v Speaker 2>that frontloaded element is gonna be fighting on reversed fronts

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00:29:21.799 --> 00:29:26.000
<v Speaker 2>and they're gonna get cut to pieces, which is exactly

324
00:29:26.039 --> 00:29:33.400
<v Speaker 2>what happened. Okay, So the Soviet for taking catastrophic casualties

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00:29:33.960 --> 00:29:38.279
<v Speaker 2>in the North and in the South. Meanwhile, Army Group

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<v Speaker 2>Center was racing to Moscow quite literally, and Hitler didn't

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<v Speaker 2>know quite what to make of this because there were

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00:29:51.279 --> 00:29:55.440
<v Speaker 2>sort of two Hitlers, and slowly makes this point. When

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00:29:55.480 --> 00:30:00.440
<v Speaker 2>Hitler felt confident politically and when he had had a

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00:30:00.799 --> 00:30:04.359
<v Speaker 2>what he believed was a firm conceptual grasp of the

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00:30:04.400 --> 00:30:09.839
<v Speaker 2>battle space, Hitler was hyper aggressive. When fog of war

332
00:30:10.000 --> 00:30:17.480
<v Speaker 2>questions or political uncertainty clouded that perspective, Hitler developed a

333
00:30:17.559 --> 00:30:26.400
<v Speaker 2>siege mentality, and that's exactly what happened. And Hitler viewed

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00:30:26.400 --> 00:30:33.799
<v Speaker 2>Stalin as incredibly dangerous as he should have. So Hitler

335
00:30:33.920 --> 00:30:41.359
<v Speaker 2>essentially halted Army Group Center well Army Group South surrounded

336
00:30:41.400 --> 00:30:48.119
<v Speaker 2>this massive element plus the reserves that the Kremlin had

337
00:30:48.200 --> 00:30:54.400
<v Speaker 2>ordered like rushed to the front immediately, and Hitler was

338
00:30:54.440 --> 00:30:58.519
<v Speaker 2>afraid to push the attack for a decisive victory at

339
00:30:58.559 --> 00:31:02.519
<v Speaker 2>Moscow until this element was neutralized. And it was neutralized.

340
00:31:03.640 --> 00:31:07.440
<v Speaker 2>The ont of casualties the Soviets endured is utterly catastrophic

341
00:31:07.640 --> 00:31:12.920
<v Speaker 2>and unprecedented. And the Germans took something like three three

342
00:31:13.000 --> 00:31:18.400
<v Speaker 2>quarters of a million prisoners alone. Okay, but by the time,

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<v Speaker 2>by the time the fear order the attack to be

344
00:31:22.359 --> 00:31:26.119
<v Speaker 2>pushed on Moscow was too late. Okay, that's what happened.

345
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<v Speaker 2>People misunderstand that. It says, you know, oh, the Germans

346
00:31:33.039 --> 00:31:36.119
<v Speaker 2>were plotting to attack all along because the Soviets were

347
00:31:36.160 --> 00:31:40.079
<v Speaker 2>weak in some ways. But then Stalin got it together,

348
00:31:40.920 --> 00:31:45.680
<v Speaker 2>and you know, because the Germans underestimated Soviet capabilities. You know,

349
00:31:45.759 --> 00:31:48.480
<v Speaker 2>Hitler lost the war. That's not true at all. That

350
00:31:48.519 --> 00:31:53.279
<v Speaker 2>doesn't make any sense. And you know, if Stalin was like,

351
00:31:53.279 --> 00:31:58.000
<v Speaker 2>look at it like this. Okay, the Germans were halted

352
00:31:58.039 --> 00:32:01.839
<v Speaker 2>at Moscow, but they reached the Gate of Moscow, they

353
00:32:01.960 --> 00:32:05.680
<v Speaker 2>reached Leningrad and laid it to siege. They reached Stalingrad.

354
00:32:06.359 --> 00:32:08.920
<v Speaker 2>The German the very mug reached all of its objectives

355
00:32:08.920 --> 00:32:13.440
<v Speaker 2>in months. How long did it take the Red Army

356
00:32:15.240 --> 00:32:18.079
<v Speaker 2>to march on Berlin. It took them almost four years.

357
00:32:19.240 --> 00:32:22.240
<v Speaker 2>So why was there this plotting, grinding blood bath if

358
00:32:22.240 --> 00:32:26.319
<v Speaker 2>the Soviets were this grossly underestimated force, you know, and

359
00:32:26.359 --> 00:32:29.400
<v Speaker 2>the Germans didn't know what they were doing like this,

360
00:32:29.559 --> 00:32:36.960
<v Speaker 2>the Germans killed the Red Army, you know, Obviously the

361
00:32:37.039 --> 00:32:41.079
<v Speaker 2>Russians still had enough to hold Moscow and they did

362
00:32:41.119 --> 00:32:44.440
<v Speaker 2>and that was incredibly valiant. And Russians are incredibly tough,

363
00:32:45.440 --> 00:32:49.319
<v Speaker 2>and there's a simplicity to the way the Ivans fight,

364
00:32:49.480 --> 00:32:52.839
<v Speaker 2>but it's a simplicity that works, you know. I think

365
00:32:52.839 --> 00:33:00.079
<v Speaker 2>it's as guided when people suggest otherwise, and especially today

366
00:33:00.759 --> 00:33:05.359
<v Speaker 2>because people are you know, they've adopted prejudices and stuff

367
00:33:05.359 --> 00:33:08.559
<v Speaker 2>in this regard. There's really really stupid things that come

368
00:33:08.559 --> 00:33:10.559
<v Speaker 2>out of the Pentagon in terms of their assessment of

369
00:33:12.200 --> 00:33:21.440
<v Speaker 2>Russian capabilities and things. And incidentally, Eric von Mannstein's the

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<v Speaker 2>book it's called Lost Victories. It's for I think it's fascinating,

371
00:33:25.279 --> 00:33:27.839
<v Speaker 2>but it's kind of for military hounds only. It's you know,

372
00:33:27.920 --> 00:33:33.400
<v Speaker 2>not like late Sunday reading. But what that book was

373
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<v Speaker 2>the US War Department, back when there was a war department.

374
00:33:37.720 --> 00:33:42.119
<v Speaker 2>There's not anymore, no matter what like special needs, Higgs

375
00:33:42.119 --> 00:33:47.640
<v Speaker 2>Seth says. But in the last months of the Department

376
00:33:47.680 --> 00:33:53.640
<v Speaker 2>of War, they debriefed Manstein on basically on you know,

377
00:33:53.839 --> 00:33:56.880
<v Speaker 2>his experience over four years of fighting the Soviet Union

378
00:33:56.880 --> 00:34:05.799
<v Speaker 2>and a general officers role, and the War Department soon

379
00:34:05.880 --> 00:34:08.920
<v Speaker 2>to be the Defense Department, they took this very seriously.

380
00:34:09.360 --> 00:34:15.159
<v Speaker 2>An early NATO force structure wasn't a substantial on the

381
00:34:15.199 --> 00:34:19.079
<v Speaker 2>infantry side, ground on the imagery and armor side. It

382
00:34:19.119 --> 00:34:27.400
<v Speaker 2>was substantially based around what von Manstein had. It's said, Okay,

383
00:34:27.440 --> 00:34:30.760
<v Speaker 2>so this book was sometime in the fifties, the first edition,

384
00:34:31.920 --> 00:34:34.559
<v Speaker 2>it was edited to make them more readable, and it's

385
00:34:34.840 --> 00:34:39.280
<v Speaker 2>it's literally Managelin is debriefing with some added stuff, you know.

386
00:34:39.519 --> 00:34:44.320
<v Speaker 2>So and that that was one of his core premises

387
00:34:44.480 --> 00:34:48.440
<v Speaker 2>is that fighting the Russians on Russian territory, they're they're

388
00:34:48.480 --> 00:34:53.280
<v Speaker 2>they're they're unbelievably and savagely tough, you know, and that

389
00:34:53.280 --> 00:34:55.880
<v Speaker 2>that's a force multiplier and also makes up for some

390
00:34:55.920 --> 00:35:02.239
<v Speaker 2>of their shortcomings. And the Russians also they they know

391
00:35:02.519 --> 00:35:07.239
<v Speaker 2>what they know the limits of their capabilities, you know.

392
00:35:07.480 --> 00:35:10.199
<v Speaker 2>And on the one hand, and super ofw of his

393
00:35:10.280 --> 00:35:13.679
<v Speaker 2>book inside the Red Army, which is very much worth

394
00:35:13.719 --> 00:35:15.440
<v Speaker 2>reading too, especially if you got an interest in the

395
00:35:15.480 --> 00:35:18.960
<v Speaker 2>late Cold War stuff, because it's very much a breakdown

396
00:35:19.000 --> 00:35:24.360
<v Speaker 2>of you know, the the brisn of era the Soviet Army.

397
00:35:24.840 --> 00:35:27.519
<v Speaker 2>You know. He makes the point and Harold Coyle made

398
00:35:27.519 --> 00:35:32.440
<v Speaker 2>this point too, that doctrine in the Soviet Army was

399
00:35:32.480 --> 00:35:36.360
<v Speaker 2>almost like regulation. There was there were no mission oriented

400
00:35:36.440 --> 00:35:44.679
<v Speaker 2>tactics and the whole ethos of the Soviet Army's general

401
00:35:44.760 --> 00:35:49.679
<v Speaker 2>staff was to eliminate uncertainty wherever and whatever however possible,

402
00:35:50.360 --> 00:35:55.880
<v Speaker 2>so they didn't tolerate deviation from the battle plan as

403
00:35:55.920 --> 00:36:04.599
<v Speaker 2>emerged from you know, superior orders. But nevertheless, the Russian,

404
00:36:04.719 --> 00:36:07.400
<v Speaker 2>the Soviets and the Russians do very well with what

405
00:36:07.480 --> 00:36:10.920
<v Speaker 2>they're good at, you know, and deep battle is what

406
00:36:10.960 --> 00:36:18.559
<v Speaker 2>they were good at. Heavy reliance on combined arms and

407
00:36:18.599 --> 00:36:26.000
<v Speaker 2>a shock element capacity went on the offensive that tended

408
00:36:26.039 --> 00:36:28.880
<v Speaker 2>towards the kind of inflexibility which I think they later

409
00:36:28.960 --> 00:36:33.159
<v Speaker 2>remedied somewhat during the Cold War. But the ability to

410
00:36:33.320 --> 00:36:37.880
<v Speaker 2>rapidly shift from an offensive posture to defending the Hrmont

411
00:36:38.039 --> 00:36:40.599
<v Speaker 2>was very very good at that, and the British are

412
00:36:40.599 --> 00:36:45.840
<v Speaker 2>pretty good at that too. The Soviets were catastrophically bad

413
00:36:45.880 --> 00:36:50.079
<v Speaker 2>at it and the French were bad at it. But

414
00:36:50.360 --> 00:36:54.440
<v Speaker 2>part of it too, though, is that Stalin had every

415
00:36:54.480 --> 00:36:57.519
<v Speaker 2>reason to believe that the Vermont wasn't capable of what

416
00:36:57.559 --> 00:37:00.320
<v Speaker 2>it was capable of as of June nineteen four. Won

417
00:37:01.239 --> 00:37:02.800
<v Speaker 2>I mean, that was a blind spot. But at the

418
00:37:02.800 --> 00:37:08.400
<v Speaker 2>same time, you know, the Germans tend to surprise people

419
00:37:08.480 --> 00:37:14.960
<v Speaker 2>on uh matters of military affairs. But that's key because

420
00:37:15.880 --> 00:37:18.599
<v Speaker 2>it's not it's not as internet guys and an armchair

421
00:37:20.000 --> 00:37:23.679
<v Speaker 2>goofballs who claimed, well, Subra was an idiot who's a

422
00:37:23.679 --> 00:37:26.079
<v Speaker 2>liar like looking out bad the Soviets got mald That's

423
00:37:26.079 --> 00:37:28.320
<v Speaker 2>the whole, the whole point, Like that makes his point

424
00:37:28.960 --> 00:37:32.480
<v Speaker 2>not the opposite. So that's that's key. You know, I

425
00:37:32.480 --> 00:37:37.519
<v Speaker 2>I'm not I'm not just dwelling on Minutia to play

426
00:37:37.559 --> 00:37:43.559
<v Speaker 2>cake the the you know, the the military hounds among

427
00:37:43.639 --> 00:37:55.280
<v Speaker 2>us or something. But you know it's also you know,

428
00:37:55.320 --> 00:38:00.599
<v Speaker 2>it was you know the point too that I think

429
00:38:00.639 --> 00:38:04.119
<v Speaker 2>a lot of lay people don't understand these days. You know,

430
00:38:04.199 --> 00:38:10.039
<v Speaker 2>modern war resolves rapidly. You know, you don't know, you

431
00:38:10.039 --> 00:38:13.280
<v Speaker 2>don't plan for quagmires because then you're planning to lose

432
00:38:13.280 --> 00:38:20.199
<v Speaker 2>a war, so you know, within ideally in about ten

433
00:38:20.280 --> 00:38:28.039
<v Speaker 2>weeks in the outer temporal limits six months, you know,

434
00:38:28.159 --> 00:38:35.639
<v Speaker 2>Moscow had to fall to the Hrmoncht and Stalin was

435
00:38:35.679 --> 00:38:43.079
<v Speaker 2>over confident, absolutely, But it stands the reason his kind

436
00:38:43.079 --> 00:38:45.360
<v Speaker 2>of poor view of the Wehrmacht, not in terms of

437
00:38:45.400 --> 00:38:49.920
<v Speaker 2>its quality of men or firepower, but the geo strategic

438
00:38:49.960 --> 00:38:52.760
<v Speaker 2>situation and what he viewed as it's over extended commitments

439
00:38:52.760 --> 00:38:57.840
<v Speaker 2>and things. You know, he reasoned that, you know, even

440
00:38:57.840 --> 00:39:01.119
<v Speaker 2>in the very unlikely event of an assault, you know,

441
00:39:03.079 --> 00:39:06.719
<v Speaker 2>we can hold him at bay long enough to reinforce

442
00:39:06.800 --> 00:39:11.519
<v Speaker 2>and by then, you know, victory conditions will no longer

443
00:39:11.559 --> 00:39:15.000
<v Speaker 2>be realizable. You know, this all kind of falls into

444
00:39:15.039 --> 00:39:20.199
<v Speaker 2>place is the totality of circumstances. You've got to look

445
00:39:20.239 --> 00:39:23.840
<v Speaker 2>at the sudeological culture. You gotta take Stalin's own statements,

446
00:39:23.880 --> 00:39:28.920
<v Speaker 2>you gotta look at the statements of his underlings, including Khrushchev.

447
00:39:29.519 --> 00:39:32.559
<v Speaker 2>You've got to look at the pattern of deployment. You've

448
00:39:32.599 --> 00:39:35.599
<v Speaker 2>got to taken if you know what to look for.

449
00:39:35.800 --> 00:39:40.239
<v Speaker 2>But even I mean it's even more persuasive, or are

450
00:39:40.280 --> 00:39:45.559
<v Speaker 2>more obvious or other, But you know, taking in totality,

451
00:39:47.199 --> 00:39:49.400
<v Speaker 2>i mean, it's clear that super off was telling the truth,

452
00:39:50.519 --> 00:39:52.079
<v Speaker 2>you know, but all of a Suddan, Well, it's not

453
00:39:52.440 --> 00:39:55.239
<v Speaker 2>it's not clear what what the alternative was. I mean

454
00:39:55.280 --> 00:40:05.880
<v Speaker 2>it this unprecedented million he build up coupled with the transformative,

455
00:40:06.239 --> 00:40:14.880
<v Speaker 2>globally transformative aspects of the Bolshek Revolution, the heart and

456
00:40:16.440 --> 00:40:20.599
<v Speaker 2>lungs of which proverbially were in the Soviet Union. I mean,

457
00:40:20.599 --> 00:40:24.599
<v Speaker 2>what's the alternative Stalin was he ordered this build up

458
00:40:24.639 --> 00:40:29.079
<v Speaker 2>for purely defensive purposes, to which would inevitably at some

459
00:40:29.159 --> 00:40:33.159
<v Speaker 2>point provoke the West into attacking him. I mean, that

460
00:40:33.280 --> 00:40:40.679
<v Speaker 2>doesn't that that doesn't make any sense. And generally, when

461
00:40:40.719 --> 00:40:46.559
<v Speaker 2>you're talking about conditions of approximate parody with conventional combined

462
00:40:46.679 --> 00:40:51.360
<v Speaker 2>arms at scale, or when you're talking about near peer

463
00:40:54.119 --> 00:40:59.119
<v Speaker 2>strategic planning, you don't wait to be attacked. You always

464
00:40:59.119 --> 00:41:08.239
<v Speaker 2>push the assault, you know. Then that's I mean, this,

465
00:41:08.239 --> 00:41:10.599
<v Speaker 2>this this is very basic stuff.

466
00:41:11.760 --> 00:41:15.840
<v Speaker 1>Well it also also it doesn't make sense to say

467
00:41:15.960 --> 00:41:22.599
<v Speaker 1>Stalin was this interested in this social national version of

468
00:41:22.639 --> 00:41:27.239
<v Speaker 1>socialism that that would emerge out of the Bolsheviks When

469
00:41:27.280 --> 00:41:31.559
<v Speaker 1>you send troops and you send advisors and you send

470
00:41:31.719 --> 00:41:36.599
<v Speaker 1>tanks to Spain. Yeah, no, I mean you don't, you

471
00:41:36.599 --> 00:41:39.519
<v Speaker 1>don't care about Spain. You don't care what's happening in Spain.

472
00:41:40.280 --> 00:41:43.119
<v Speaker 1>If if this is supposed to be for Russia only.

473
00:41:43.519 --> 00:41:46.679
<v Speaker 2>Well it's also the Soviet Union. Like, don't get me wrong.

474
00:41:47.960 --> 00:41:51.000
<v Speaker 2>You know, one of the one of the one of

475
00:41:51.079 --> 00:41:56.480
<v Speaker 2>the living few living people who I I really find

476
00:41:56.480 --> 00:41:59.719
<v Speaker 2>common ground with and in terms of political theory, is

477
00:42:00.440 --> 00:42:04.079
<v Speaker 2>an historical subject matter is a Kerrie Bolton. Like he's

478
00:42:04.119 --> 00:42:06.679
<v Speaker 2>just great. I don't know the guy. Unfortunately, he doesn't

479
00:42:06.719 --> 00:42:09.280
<v Speaker 2>leave New Zealand much of these days because he's elderly,

480
00:42:09.320 --> 00:42:12.320
<v Speaker 2>you know, and I think most people know of him

481
00:42:12.320 --> 00:42:15.800
<v Speaker 2>because he wrote this really great exhaustive biography of Francis Yacky.

482
00:42:16.599 --> 00:42:19.480
<v Speaker 2>But he wrote a book on Stalin called Stalin the

483
00:42:19.599 --> 00:42:24.719
<v Speaker 2>Enduring Legacy, and people who haven't read the book, they

484
00:42:24.519 --> 00:42:29.000
<v Speaker 2>they they panted at some sort of oh he's some Eurasianist.

485
00:42:29.039 --> 00:42:31.440
<v Speaker 2>That's like, that's not what he's saying at all. He's

486
00:42:31.440 --> 00:42:35.960
<v Speaker 2>saying Stalin's legacy was complicated. He basically abides the same

487
00:42:37.719 --> 00:42:40.280
<v Speaker 2>viewpoint that Paul Godfrey does, although for some of different

488
00:42:40.280 --> 00:42:45.079
<v Speaker 2>reasons about a substantial aspect of the Cold War deriving

489
00:42:45.119 --> 00:42:51.119
<v Speaker 2>from the Stalin versus Trotsky paradigm. You know, but that

490
00:42:51.400 --> 00:42:54.760
<v Speaker 2>doesn't mean that Stalin was somehow not an internationalist. And

491
00:42:54.840 --> 00:42:59.280
<v Speaker 2>even you know, the Soviet Union can name dozens of ethnicities.

492
00:42:59.719 --> 00:43:04.239
<v Speaker 2>You know, a huge Moslim population, you know, a huge

493
00:43:04.280 --> 00:43:10.559
<v Speaker 2>Asiatic population, you know, a huge number of Near Eastern people.

494
00:43:11.400 --> 00:43:15.599
<v Speaker 2>You know, it spanned one fifth or one six of

495
00:43:15.639 --> 00:43:20.480
<v Speaker 2>this planets, like the Soviet Union was the ultimate international superpower,

496
00:43:21.400 --> 00:43:27.000
<v Speaker 2>you know, and the only way the Soviet Union survives.

497
00:43:27.079 --> 00:43:31.320
<v Speaker 2>And one of the reasons why the later Cold War

498
00:43:31.480 --> 00:43:35.679
<v Speaker 2>was so dangerous as human you know, for technological reasons

499
00:43:36.079 --> 00:43:39.400
<v Speaker 2>in historical ones and the sidelining of human decision makers

500
00:43:39.440 --> 00:43:43.159
<v Speaker 2>and misconditions of strategic nucleator parodying things. But the reason

501
00:43:43.159 --> 00:43:46.400
<v Speaker 2>why I drop off who was a fascinating guy. And

502
00:43:46.440 --> 00:43:49.159
<v Speaker 2>I mean, like I've said, I believe I'm not a

503
00:43:49.159 --> 00:43:55.639
<v Speaker 2>sovietologist and I'm not a Russia expert at all, but

504
00:43:57.480 --> 00:44:01.000
<v Speaker 2>I do know something and it's clear to me that

505
00:44:01.960 --> 00:44:08.639
<v Speaker 2>post Khrush Jeff, there was a shadow trifecta of and

506
00:44:08.760 --> 00:44:12.719
<v Speaker 2>drop of Ustanov and Gramigo with a real Soviet executive.

507
00:44:12.800 --> 00:44:17.320
<v Speaker 2>Breshnev was a frontman, which made sense because before he

508
00:44:17.360 --> 00:44:21.840
<v Speaker 2>became kind of elderly and compromised people liked Brezhnev, and

509
00:44:21.880 --> 00:44:25.599
<v Speaker 2>he resonated with with the people even today, like he's

510
00:44:25.599 --> 00:44:31.440
<v Speaker 2>fondly remembered, you know, like uh as as as you know, uh,

511
00:44:32.199 --> 00:44:34.519
<v Speaker 2>it's like a man who was like a like a

512
00:44:34.559 --> 00:44:39.239
<v Speaker 2>great steward of other Russian people and the nationalities. But

513
00:44:40.280 --> 00:44:43.199
<v Speaker 2>you know, and drop of I mean Brensnev was very

514
00:44:43.280 --> 00:44:46.719
<v Speaker 2>much a Stalinist, you know, and as was in drop

515
00:44:46.760 --> 00:44:53.159
<v Speaker 2>of but a drop of seminal speech right in eighty two,

516
00:44:53.519 --> 00:44:59.880
<v Speaker 2>right after he became a general secretary, you know, he

517
00:45:00.599 --> 00:45:05.519
<v Speaker 2>this is when uh project Rion, which a lot of

518
00:45:05.519 --> 00:45:10.199
<v Speaker 2>people attribute as contributing substantially to the war Scare of

519
00:45:10.239 --> 00:45:12.760
<v Speaker 2>eighty three in the Able Archer era. I think people

520
00:45:12.800 --> 00:45:16.960
<v Speaker 2>still misunderstand that aspect of it, but because it may

521
00:45:17.519 --> 00:45:20.519
<v Speaker 2>the reason why the subject of the speech to the

522
00:45:20.639 --> 00:45:24.679
<v Speaker 2>Presidium he said, we're going to lose the Cold War

523
00:45:24.960 --> 00:45:32.280
<v Speaker 2>if we don't take drastic measures to countermeasures against Rima,

524
00:45:32.559 --> 00:45:34.719
<v Speaker 2>you know, the revolution military affairs. I think it's being

525
00:45:34.800 --> 00:45:39.880
<v Speaker 2>specifically of computing power and command and control aspects, which

526
00:45:39.960 --> 00:45:42.599
<v Speaker 2>was true. There's there's something, there's something insane. There's only

527
00:45:42.679 --> 00:45:46.000
<v Speaker 2>like five thousand computers in the entire Soviet Union. In

528
00:45:46.079 --> 00:45:48.000
<v Speaker 2>nine eighty two. It was something that it was some

529
00:45:48.079 --> 00:45:52.880
<v Speaker 2>insanely primitive state of affairs or regards high tech, you know,

530
00:45:53.239 --> 00:45:59.679
<v Speaker 2>And you know, it's whole point was basically the risk

531
00:45:59.760 --> 00:46:04.280
<v Speaker 2>of war based on the strategic paradigm as it's evolving,

532
00:46:04.400 --> 00:46:09.000
<v Speaker 2>is well as these command and control aspects and the

533
00:46:09.039 --> 00:46:12.199
<v Speaker 2>sideline of human decision makers, that the risk of war

534
00:46:12.360 --> 00:46:15.840
<v Speaker 2>is probably greater than it's ever been since you know,

535
00:46:15.880 --> 00:46:20.000
<v Speaker 2>the forties. But also we're going to lose that war

536
00:46:20.960 --> 00:46:27.960
<v Speaker 2>if we don't find a way to develop meaningful countermeasures

537
00:46:28.000 --> 00:46:35.159
<v Speaker 2>that you know, are our technologies of parody, or unless

538
00:46:35.159 --> 00:46:37.880
<v Speaker 2>we find a way out of the Cold War, you know.

539
00:46:37.920 --> 00:46:40.559
<v Speaker 2>And that was Gorbachev's whole notion, because Gorbachev wasn't a

540
00:46:40.719 --> 00:46:44.480
<v Speaker 2>drop off protege. He wasn't some big liberal chevid Narsee

541
00:46:44.599 --> 00:46:52.679
<v Speaker 2>I think was subverting things. But point being, you know,

542
00:46:52.760 --> 00:46:56.320
<v Speaker 2>Gorbachev was very much the anti Yeltsin quite literally, and

543
00:46:56.440 --> 00:47:04.000
<v Speaker 2>Yelson was the neocon's guy. You know. Gorbachev's notion was,

544
00:47:06.079 --> 00:47:10.280
<v Speaker 2>you know, to reform the command economy with certain qualifications,

545
00:47:10.960 --> 00:47:14.199
<v Speaker 2>you know, and and and basically do ay with God's

546
00:47:14.320 --> 00:47:18.760
<v Speaker 2>plan in favor of something else that could abide innovation

547
00:47:18.960 --> 00:47:23.119
<v Speaker 2>in the high tech sector and to bring about peace

548
00:47:23.119 --> 00:47:27.320
<v Speaker 2>with the United States. But surrendering to the United States

549
00:47:27.400 --> 00:47:30.239
<v Speaker 2>or dismantling the Soviet Union that was not at all

550
00:47:30.320 --> 00:47:35.599
<v Speaker 2>within the cards. And one of the reasons why Gorbachev

551
00:47:37.679 --> 00:47:43.199
<v Speaker 2>was had rapport with Bush and Baker. Bush and Baker

552
00:47:43.960 --> 00:47:47.079
<v Speaker 2>assured him, we're not gonna try and dismantle the Soviet Union,

553
00:47:47.119 --> 00:47:50.559
<v Speaker 2>and they weren't for a very specific reason. Bush said,

554
00:47:51.440 --> 00:47:55.800
<v Speaker 2>where you know, until there's full nuclear disarmament, we're not

555
00:47:55.800 --> 00:47:59.079
<v Speaker 2>even gonna talk about, you know, a post Soviet future,

556
00:48:00.280 --> 00:48:05.800
<v Speaker 2>you know. And obviously the Neo con perspective and their

557
00:48:05.880 --> 00:48:11.719
<v Speaker 2>shoehorning of Yelsen was, you know, break the Soviet Union

558
00:48:11.800 --> 00:48:14.639
<v Speaker 2>to pieces. Now. Their notion was, and one of the

559
00:48:14.639 --> 00:48:18.400
<v Speaker 2>reasons for the why this crusading against Moscow is proceeding

560
00:48:18.440 --> 00:48:21.440
<v Speaker 2>from Ukraine. Their notion was to break the Soviet Union

561
00:48:21.480 --> 00:48:26.000
<v Speaker 2>into essentially three discrete like client regimes, you know, like

562
00:48:26.599 --> 00:48:30.719
<v Speaker 2>the former Soviet Far East. And in those days especially too,

563
00:48:30.920 --> 00:48:35.199
<v Speaker 2>because the Pentagon was still looking at China as essentially

564
00:48:35.239 --> 00:48:38.880
<v Speaker 2>friendly and obviously like you know, seed some of that

565
00:48:39.039 --> 00:48:42.199
<v Speaker 2>territory to the to pick king, but you know, base

566
00:48:42.280 --> 00:48:45.679
<v Speaker 2>they'll be like a Ukraine like commissariat. They'll be like,

567
00:48:45.719 --> 00:48:48.360
<v Speaker 2>you know, the Moscow kind of central Commissariat, and then

568
00:48:48.360 --> 00:48:53.159
<v Speaker 2>they'll be this like former like Russian Far East that

569
00:48:53.280 --> 00:48:55.800
<v Speaker 2>can you know, just that's just kind of like, uh,

570
00:48:56.719 --> 00:49:04.800
<v Speaker 2>this sort of like hyper exploited, you know, hinterland for

571
00:49:06.119 --> 00:49:09.760
<v Speaker 2>the United States and and adjacent finance capital and stuff.

572
00:49:10.519 --> 00:49:15.519
<v Speaker 2>And you know, butch and Baker realize like, no, we're

573
00:49:15.519 --> 00:49:18.800
<v Speaker 2>not We're not gonna grind these people's faces into the concrete,

574
00:49:19.360 --> 00:49:22.760
<v Speaker 2>and we're not gonna destabilize the whole region. And you know,

575
00:49:22.800 --> 00:49:27.360
<v Speaker 2>we're certainly not gonna do anything until there's full nuclear disarmament.

576
00:49:28.480 --> 00:49:32.760
<v Speaker 2>You know that that was a tangential discussion. Should give

577
00:49:32.800 --> 00:49:36.079
<v Speaker 2>me what. Baker was a great man, and I've got

578
00:49:36.280 --> 00:49:38.880
<v Speaker 2>a lot of respect for him and push forty one.

579
00:49:41.239 --> 00:49:43.119
<v Speaker 2>It was not a particularly likable guy, I leave it

580
00:49:43.199 --> 00:49:46.920
<v Speaker 2>to Dad, but he had a very serious and sophisticated

581
00:49:47.000 --> 00:49:53.840
<v Speaker 2>view of geopolitics and political affairs. So that administration looks

582
00:49:53.880 --> 00:49:57.119
<v Speaker 2>better and better in my opinion, And I mean I

583
00:49:57.119 --> 00:50:01.800
<v Speaker 2>felt that way at the time. As a teenager, I

584
00:50:01.880 --> 00:50:04.800
<v Speaker 2>realized this country. I realized something really, really really bad

585
00:50:04.880 --> 00:50:10.239
<v Speaker 2>was underway. When when when when Clinton was elected I mean,

586
00:50:10.559 --> 00:50:11.639
<v Speaker 2>it would have been one thing if it was like

587
00:50:11.639 --> 00:50:15.320
<v Speaker 2>a twenty twenty steel but the body political was excited

588
00:50:15.360 --> 00:50:18.079
<v Speaker 2>about this pig and that was insane, you know. And

589
00:50:18.159 --> 00:50:21.920
<v Speaker 2>it's not just because he was crushing our people. I mean,

590
00:50:21.920 --> 00:50:24.920
<v Speaker 2>I knew guys who got indicted and with the prison

591
00:50:25.440 --> 00:50:31.639
<v Speaker 2>under Clinton reno for when they hadn't done anything. You know,

592
00:50:34.400 --> 00:50:36.480
<v Speaker 2>I'm not just speaking, I mean as a matter of

593
00:50:36.519 --> 00:50:39.000
<v Speaker 2>law as well as a matter of fact or ethics

594
00:50:39.079 --> 00:50:45.280
<v Speaker 2>or whatever. But as it may the to bring it

595
00:50:45.360 --> 00:50:49.320
<v Speaker 2>back a bit, you know, there there's a brief moment

596
00:50:51.599 --> 00:50:55.159
<v Speaker 2>really from about ninety two to ninety six, and that's

597
00:50:55.199 --> 00:50:58.440
<v Speaker 2>when that's when these these historians first mother David Irving,

598
00:50:58.760 --> 00:51:01.119
<v Speaker 2>you know, he got access to the as B archives

599
00:51:01.880 --> 00:51:03.960
<v Speaker 2>and there was all this incredible stuff that came to

600
00:51:04.159 --> 00:51:07.199
<v Speaker 2>like that, you know, the old Soviet system had suppressed

601
00:51:07.599 --> 00:51:13.519
<v Speaker 2>and kept from probably eyes. But then, I mean very

602
00:51:13.559 --> 00:51:18.559
<v Speaker 2>quickly things became even more opaque than in some ways

603
00:51:18.559 --> 00:51:20.960
<v Speaker 2>than they had during the Soviet era because the regime

604
00:51:21.000 --> 00:51:23.119
<v Speaker 2>will never tell the truth about what's going on with Russia,

605
00:51:23.199 --> 00:51:26.480
<v Speaker 2>I mean, or with Europe. But this is an issue

606
00:51:26.480 --> 00:51:30.400
<v Speaker 2>with peculiar sensitivity for reasons that I don't think need

607
00:51:30.480 --> 00:51:34.280
<v Speaker 2>to be elaborately explicated. But I realized I talked more

608
00:51:34.280 --> 00:51:41.760
<v Speaker 2>about Hoffmann as well as the nulange of barbaras that

609
00:51:41.800 --> 00:51:43.880
<v Speaker 2>I did specifically suber of. If you want to a

610
00:51:43.920 --> 00:51:46.599
<v Speaker 2>part three, I'll remedy that and i'll speak specifically to

611
00:51:46.639 --> 00:51:52.000
<v Speaker 2>subro OFV and I'll include some aspects of inside the

612
00:51:52.039 --> 00:51:54.280
<v Speaker 2>Red Army. I've got a paperback of that, and I

613
00:51:54.360 --> 00:51:55.239
<v Speaker 2>take it on the road with me.

614
00:51:57.199 --> 00:52:00.360
<v Speaker 1>Now that sounds good to me, getting into the Yeah,

615
00:52:00.800 --> 00:52:03.239
<v Speaker 1>the thing about reading subar Off is it's just this

616
00:52:04.159 --> 00:52:10.400
<v Speaker 1>fire hose of just this date, that what was dismantled

617
00:52:10.440 --> 00:52:12.960
<v Speaker 1>on this date, what was put in this place on

618
00:52:13.000 --> 00:52:15.599
<v Speaker 1>this date, And it's just like just running down this

619
00:52:15.719 --> 00:52:19.559
<v Speaker 1>whole list of things, just chapter after chapter, where it's

620
00:52:19.760 --> 00:52:24.719
<v Speaker 1>it's mind boggling. The the mountain of circumstantial evidence he

621
00:52:25.719 --> 00:52:29.880
<v Speaker 1>is able to provide for his for his thesis, which

622
00:52:30.079 --> 00:52:30.400
<v Speaker 1>he took.

623
00:52:31.199 --> 00:52:34.599
<v Speaker 2>He took like a lot of Russians, the particularly guys

624
00:52:34.599 --> 00:52:39.679
<v Speaker 2>who were in intelligence roles or military roles. He was

625
00:52:39.719 --> 00:52:42.440
<v Speaker 2>a prolific documentary and he wrote down a huge amount

626
00:52:42.480 --> 00:52:45.320
<v Speaker 2>of things. But also you know, obviously English wasn't his

627
00:52:45.320 --> 00:52:50.119
<v Speaker 2>first language, and it's written kind of like a debriefing,

628
00:52:50.599 --> 00:52:54.239
<v Speaker 2>but with like added extensic comedy, I mean, which makes sense.

629
00:52:54.280 --> 00:52:57.480
<v Speaker 2>I mean, he was a defector and he he he

630
00:52:57.519 --> 00:53:02.519
<v Speaker 2>spent literally years being debriefed by the American and NATO

631
00:53:04.000 --> 00:53:06.760
<v Speaker 2>military people, you know, I mean, I get it. It's

632
00:53:06.800 --> 00:53:11.760
<v Speaker 2>not that it's not a fun life, like the defector

633
00:53:11.800 --> 00:53:13.440
<v Speaker 2>actually sucks.

634
00:53:13.679 --> 00:53:17.960
<v Speaker 1>What's your take on defectors. I interviewed one once, and

635
00:53:18.639 --> 00:53:22.360
<v Speaker 1>he was a defector from Soviet Union, like in early

636
00:53:22.480 --> 00:53:28.760
<v Speaker 1>nineteen eighty nine, and I mean I just caught him

637
00:53:29.920 --> 00:53:35.920
<v Speaker 1>not exactly lying, just I caught him in not being

638
00:53:35.960 --> 00:53:40.639
<v Speaker 1>willing to have certain conversations that would just seem like,

639
00:53:40.840 --> 00:53:42.639
<v Speaker 1>you know, it's like, oh, you know, well, tell me

640
00:53:42.679 --> 00:53:44.599
<v Speaker 1>what Carl Marx got right. It's one of the things

641
00:53:44.719 --> 00:53:46.440
<v Speaker 1>I asked him. I said, tell me what Carl Marks

642
00:53:46.480 --> 00:53:52.320
<v Speaker 1>got right. He's like nothing, absolutely nothing. And I'm like, yeah,

643
00:53:52.519 --> 00:53:55.400
<v Speaker 1>I see these defectors come out of like North Korea,

644
00:53:55.960 --> 00:53:59.000
<v Speaker 1>and like immediately they get debriefed by the State Department,

645
00:53:59.000 --> 00:54:01.039
<v Speaker 1>and then they get boob job and they're driving brand

646
00:54:01.079 --> 00:54:06.679
<v Speaker 1>new cars and they're in freaking condos, and I'm like, yeah,

647
00:54:06.920 --> 00:54:09.800
<v Speaker 1>I think I think defectors were a lot different back

648
00:54:09.840 --> 00:54:10.519
<v Speaker 1>then than they are.

649
00:54:11.039 --> 00:54:14.719
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I have to say, Okay, some guy, some some

650
00:54:14.920 --> 00:54:21.159
<v Speaker 2>DDR guy or some Soviet Union like GRU officer who

651
00:54:21.239 --> 00:54:25.239
<v Speaker 2>defected in like May nineteen eighty nine, totally different than

652
00:54:25.239 --> 00:54:27.719
<v Speaker 2>a guy who defected in nineteen seventy nine or nineteen

653
00:54:27.760 --> 00:54:31.599
<v Speaker 2>sixty nine, night and day, because the former is just

654
00:54:31.760 --> 00:54:34.639
<v Speaker 2>like some dickhead like looking to get paid and like

655
00:54:34.679 --> 00:54:36.159
<v Speaker 2>looking for a way out of his life in a

656
00:54:36.199 --> 00:54:42.400
<v Speaker 2>failing system. Guys like super off first of all, they're

657
00:54:42.400 --> 00:54:50.039
<v Speaker 2>taking a huge risk, you know. And secondly, for regular

658
00:54:50.119 --> 00:54:56.840
<v Speaker 2>people man like it it pete Cold War, you know. Uh,

659
00:54:56.920 --> 00:55:00.639
<v Speaker 2>life wasn't that different than the Soviet Union or America.

660
00:55:01.599 --> 00:55:02.360
<v Speaker 2>It really wasn't.

661
00:55:02.440 --> 00:55:02.519
<v Speaker 1>So.

662
00:55:02.519 --> 00:55:06.079
<v Speaker 2>I mean it's not like you's some GRU big shot.

663
00:55:06.320 --> 00:55:08.599
<v Speaker 2>It's not like you're gonna get great stuff in America.

664
00:55:08.760 --> 00:55:11.000
<v Speaker 2>You can't back home. I mean, yeah you can. You

665
00:55:11.079 --> 00:55:12.760
<v Speaker 2>might be able to get like blue jeans for your

666
00:55:12.800 --> 00:55:17.360
<v Speaker 2>mistress and like good Scotch, But there's not some like,

667
00:55:17.719 --> 00:55:20.039
<v Speaker 2>there wasn't some like huge difference in quality of life

668
00:55:20.119 --> 00:55:25.079
<v Speaker 2>or something. Guys like stuber Of defected because they they

669
00:55:25.079 --> 00:55:29.599
<v Speaker 2>had ethical reasons for it, and they developed a moral

670
00:55:29.679 --> 00:55:32.320
<v Speaker 2>contempt for the system. I really liked the book The

671
00:55:32.360 --> 00:55:34.639
<v Speaker 2>Hunt for at October. It's just like an awesome book,

672
00:55:34.639 --> 00:55:39.159
<v Speaker 2>and I reread it lately because I I'd forgotten how

673
00:55:39.159 --> 00:55:44.760
<v Speaker 2>good it was. But you know, the uh, the Captain

674
00:55:46.760 --> 00:55:50.559
<v Speaker 2>of the Red October, the whole deal. I mean it's

675
00:55:50.760 --> 00:55:52.800
<v Speaker 2>in parts of character. I mean it's not it's a

676
00:55:52.800 --> 00:56:00.159
<v Speaker 2>brilliant meditation on on late Cold War strategic nucles your

677
00:56:00.199 --> 00:56:02.960
<v Speaker 2>platforms and the deep parodies they're in, but it's under

678
00:56:02.960 --> 00:56:08.559
<v Speaker 2>my character study. Like the Soviet naval officer, you know, he's, uh,

679
00:56:08.639 --> 00:56:10.800
<v Speaker 2>he's this guy from the He's this Lithuanian guy. He

680
00:56:10.840 --> 00:56:15.039
<v Speaker 2>doesn't really relate to the Russian culture. His wife, uh

681
00:56:15.920 --> 00:56:20.679
<v Speaker 2>need an operation and uh the doctor who operated on

682
00:56:20.800 --> 00:56:23.119
<v Speaker 2>or was drunk when he put in the surgery, so

683
00:56:23.199 --> 00:56:25.760
<v Speaker 2>he boxed it and she died. But the doctor was

684
00:56:25.800 --> 00:56:28.159
<v Speaker 2>the son of some polit baro big shots. They're like,

685
00:56:28.199 --> 00:56:32.639
<v Speaker 2>you know, you can't stop demanding like vengeance against this man.

686
00:56:33.400 --> 00:56:35.880
<v Speaker 2>So the so the this naval officeries just like what

687
00:56:35.920 --> 00:56:38.519
<v Speaker 2>the hell am I doing? You know, like I and

688
00:56:38.599 --> 00:56:40.840
<v Speaker 2>also too in it. He's like deeply religious. He's like,

689
00:56:40.840 --> 00:56:46.519
<v Speaker 2>so there's like this atheist, uh chauvinistic Russian government that

690
00:56:46.679 --> 00:56:50.639
<v Speaker 2>killed my wife and I am I'm supposed to. I

691
00:56:50.679 --> 00:56:52.880
<v Speaker 2>was supposed to kill fifty million people and event a

692
00:56:52.920 --> 00:56:55.360
<v Speaker 2>wharl like on behalf of it. Like, no, I'm not

693
00:56:55.400 --> 00:56:58.639
<v Speaker 2>doing that. I mean there there's a there's a deeper

694
00:56:58.719 --> 00:57:02.039
<v Speaker 2>moral quag mari too, because the Red October it's a

695
00:57:02.079 --> 00:57:05.280
<v Speaker 2>Typhoon class sub but it's got what's called a caterpillar drive,

696
00:57:06.159 --> 00:57:09.559
<v Speaker 2>so it's invisible to SOSIS and passive sonar. So basically

697
00:57:09.599 --> 00:57:15.000
<v Speaker 2>it's a splendid first strike weapon. So he realizes, like

698
00:57:15.039 --> 00:57:19.320
<v Speaker 2>the Soviet Union can alter the strategic balance and basically, uh,

699
00:57:19.679 --> 00:57:23.639
<v Speaker 2>bring America to terms through the thread of through the

700
00:57:23.679 --> 00:57:25.840
<v Speaker 2>threat at nuclear assault, and like, I mean, he've used

701
00:57:25.880 --> 00:57:28.280
<v Speaker 2>that as morally fucked. Also, you know, like if we're

702
00:57:28.320 --> 00:57:31.239
<v Speaker 2>gonna win, like let's win the Cold War clean, you know,

703
00:57:31.320 --> 00:57:34.880
<v Speaker 2>not not do it basically by like holding America hostage

704
00:57:34.920 --> 00:57:37.480
<v Speaker 2>with the nuclear trigger. I mean that's kind of moralistic.

705
00:57:37.559 --> 00:57:40.639
<v Speaker 2>But at the same time, I mean, I I don't know, man,

706
00:57:40.760 --> 00:57:47.239
<v Speaker 2>like if it's no being uh being the captain of

707
00:57:47.320 --> 00:57:52.800
<v Speaker 2>a of a Typhoon class sub that that there was

708
00:57:52.840 --> 00:57:57.079
<v Speaker 2>a counter value like mega death machine, you know, it's

709
00:57:56.880 --> 00:58:00.719
<v Speaker 2>it's its role is to assault counter value targets. And

710
00:58:01.360 --> 00:58:04.440
<v Speaker 2>kill millions of people if you don't believe in the

711
00:58:04.519 --> 00:58:08.320
<v Speaker 2>system you serve. That's a pretty horrible role to be in.

712
00:58:09.440 --> 00:58:11.960
<v Speaker 2>You know, You've got to be a true believer to

713
00:58:12.039 --> 00:58:15.119
<v Speaker 2>do that job. It's not like any other job in

714
00:58:15.159 --> 00:58:17.679
<v Speaker 2>the military, and it's not like any other role in

715
00:58:17.719 --> 00:58:26.840
<v Speaker 2>any other era. You know, I commanding a commanding a

716
00:58:26.880 --> 00:58:31.119
<v Speaker 2>first strike platform that that can that can kill millions

717
00:58:31.159 --> 00:58:35.280
<v Speaker 2>of people, you know. So I obviously that's like a

718
00:58:35.320 --> 00:58:39.360
<v Speaker 2>fictional example, but what Clancy was drawing upon was the

719
00:58:39.679 --> 00:58:42.320
<v Speaker 2>real ethos a defectors in the Cold War. And on

720
00:58:42.360 --> 00:58:45.400
<v Speaker 2>the other side you had guys like the Cambridge five.

721
00:58:45.440 --> 00:58:49.800
<v Speaker 2>But I think we're pretty disturbed guys, but they were

722
00:58:49.840 --> 00:58:53.239
<v Speaker 2>true believers. That's totally different than these days. Like some

723
00:58:53.920 --> 00:58:56.320
<v Speaker 2>I think snout In is a is a sincere guy.

724
00:58:56.360 --> 00:59:01.119
<v Speaker 2>Whatever problems he might have, you know, he's basically yeah,

725
00:59:01.119 --> 00:59:02.960
<v Speaker 2>I mean, he could never leave Russia now, Like it's

726
00:59:02.960 --> 00:59:08.559
<v Speaker 2>not a happy life, you know. I I think, uh,

727
00:59:08.639 --> 00:59:10.480
<v Speaker 2>you can argue, I mean snowed and I don't want

728
00:59:10.480 --> 00:59:13.719
<v Speaker 2>to get into a deep meditation on the ethics of

729
00:59:13.719 --> 00:59:17.079
<v Speaker 2>what snowed and did. But I my point is, like

730
00:59:17.119 --> 00:59:19.280
<v Speaker 2>I whatever his motives, I don't think if we can

731
00:59:19.320 --> 00:59:21.320
<v Speaker 2>say he did that for clout. But you know, these

732
00:59:21.360 --> 00:59:23.039
<v Speaker 2>people who come the other way, like some of these

733
00:59:23.119 --> 00:59:26.599
<v Speaker 2>Chinese or North Koreans, they're they're just not going to

734
00:59:26.599 --> 00:59:29.960
<v Speaker 2>get paid, it's obvious, but they think they're not being

735
00:59:30.000 --> 00:59:33.599
<v Speaker 2>respected like they should be in, you know, whatever role

736
00:59:33.599 --> 00:59:35.360
<v Speaker 2>they're in. You know, but the Cold War was a

737
00:59:35.880 --> 00:59:38.800
<v Speaker 2>Cold War is a different world, I mean literally, you know.

738
00:59:40.320 --> 00:59:44.360
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, all right, Well we'll pick this up on episode

739
00:59:44.360 --> 00:59:47.360
<v Speaker 1>three when you, uh, when you get back from the

740
00:59:47.400 --> 00:59:50.199
<v Speaker 1>travels of Thomas on the Road and everything.

741
00:59:50.639 --> 00:59:54.320
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, yeah, everybody about thirty six hours ago.

742
00:59:54.639 --> 00:59:56.920
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, remind everybody where they can find your work.

743
00:59:57.719 --> 01:00:02.360
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, he said, check out my subst it's real Thomas

744
01:00:02.400 --> 01:00:06.039
<v Speaker 2>seven seven seven dots substack dot com. Alternatively, go to

745
01:00:06.079 --> 01:00:09.360
<v Speaker 2>the website. It's number seven h on mes seven seven

746
01:00:09.440 --> 01:00:12.039
<v Speaker 2>seven dot com. But that stuff in the show notes

747
01:00:12.079 --> 01:00:16.159
<v Speaker 2>so people can find it easy. But uh, my website

748
01:00:18.039 --> 01:00:21.760
<v Speaker 2>is a good one stop, and uh my substick is

749
01:00:22.239 --> 01:00:24.559
<v Speaker 2>where the podcast and other good stuff is at. And

750
01:00:25.599 --> 01:00:29.639
<v Speaker 2>I've I just got off the road from DC. Then

751
01:00:29.679 --> 01:00:32.559
<v Speaker 2>we had the Halloween all says say Cemetery Walk. I'm

752
01:00:32.559 --> 01:00:35.239
<v Speaker 2>trying to make progress. I gotta make substantial progress on

753
01:00:35.239 --> 01:00:38.760
<v Speaker 2>this manuscript. By December, things have been very hectic, so

754
01:00:39.239 --> 01:00:41.760
<v Speaker 2>in good ways, and then I injured myself like a

755
01:00:41.840 --> 01:00:47.559
<v Speaker 2>fucking idiot. But it's uh, the mind Phaser Pod. Uh,

756
01:00:48.039 --> 01:00:50.320
<v Speaker 2>It's gonna be another couple of weeks before a fresh

757
01:00:50.360 --> 01:00:53.199
<v Speaker 2>episode drops, so forgive me for this, but Jay Burden

758
01:00:53.199 --> 01:00:56.079
<v Speaker 2>and I will continue to drop fresh stuff on his

759
01:00:56.199 --> 01:00:59.840
<v Speaker 2>platforms and on radio for Chicago, So just bear with me.

760
01:01:00.079 --> 01:01:06.360
<v Speaker 2>I promise we'll be back to regular uploads when I

761
01:01:06.360 --> 01:01:07.480
<v Speaker 2>get back from the road.

762
01:01:09.480 --> 01:01:13.320
<v Speaker 1>All right until episode three? Thank you Thomas, Yeah, thank

763
01:01:13.360 --> 01:01:13.639
<v Speaker 1>you man.