WEBVTT 1 00:00:01.399 --> 00:00:11.480 I'm all right. 2 00:00:11.800 --> 00:00:14.919 Hey guys, welcome to another episode of Eyes On geopolvis 3 00:00:14.960 --> 00:00:18.280 I'm here. What a very special one. Louis Rita, Jack 4 00:00:18.399 --> 00:00:22.160 Murphy Lewis of course past guest of Eyes On, past 5 00:00:22.199 --> 00:00:25.039 guest of the Teamhouse, So if you haven't checked out 6 00:00:25.039 --> 00:00:26.800 his Team House episode, it's a great one, one of 7 00:00:26.879 --> 00:00:30.399 my favorite ones in the last couple of years. Check 8 00:00:30.440 --> 00:00:34.719 it out there. Lewis, of course, was a former CIA officer, 9 00:00:36.520 --> 00:00:39.200 Chief of Station of New Delhi, so he's got a 10 00:00:39.240 --> 00:00:44.079 really interesting and interesting perspective of what's going on today 11 00:00:44.119 --> 00:00:49.200 with Indian Pakistan. Last week, of course attacking Kashmir. I 12 00:00:49.200 --> 00:00:54.479 think twenty six people died and things are things are 13 00:00:54.520 --> 00:01:00.359 popping off all over, so temperatures are being risen everywhere. Lewis, 14 00:01:00.359 --> 00:01:02.600 thanks for joining us today. Really appreciate it. 15 00:01:02.960 --> 00:01:06.200 Hey, my pleasure. I've taken time out for my campaigning 16 00:01:06.239 --> 00:01:09.040 to be Pope and came back here. 17 00:01:09.480 --> 00:01:09.640 Hey. 18 00:01:09.680 --> 00:01:12.799 Look, I've got thirteen votes lined up, so I pray 19 00:01:12.879 --> 00:01:13.959 for bad not bad. 20 00:01:14.480 --> 00:01:15.920 Yeah. 21 00:01:16.239 --> 00:01:19.480 I just finished watching that movie Conclave D that you recommend. 22 00:01:19.599 --> 00:01:21.959 Yeah, what did you think? I liked it? It was good. 23 00:01:22.079 --> 00:01:25.159 Yeah, Yeah, that's a good movie. I'm bringing back the 24 00:01:25.200 --> 00:01:26.239 Renaissance papacy. 25 00:01:26.680 --> 00:01:35.280 Oh you're going hardcore. Huh hardcore army, start invading, start 26 00:01:35.359 --> 00:01:36.040 evading like. 27 00:01:36.439 --> 00:01:40.799 The Ottoman Empire. Yeah, I'm starting small. Florence is first. 28 00:01:40.599 --> 00:01:41.079 On the list. 29 00:01:41.280 --> 00:01:46.920 Okay, build up some momentum. Yeah, So lewis, what the 30 00:01:46.920 --> 00:01:50.680 hell is going on in Indian Pakistan? It seems like Pakistan 31 00:01:50.719 --> 00:01:52.680 and India are both gearing up for a bit of 32 00:01:52.719 --> 00:01:56.159 a conflict, and when that happens, people seem to get 33 00:01:56.280 --> 00:01:59.200 pretty worried because they're both nuclear powers. 34 00:01:59.680 --> 00:02:04.040 Yeah, it's you know, Uh, this this, this sort of 35 00:02:04.159 --> 00:02:10.360 tension and cross border activity flares every every few years 36 00:02:10.479 --> 00:02:10.759 or so. 37 00:02:11.439 --> 00:02:11.639 Uh. 38 00:02:11.680 --> 00:02:13.319 And I guess for the for the audience that just 39 00:02:13.479 --> 00:02:19.280 understand the obvious and and the really overt reason for 40 00:02:19.319 --> 00:02:23.319 this is the territorial dispute over Kashmir, most of which 41 00:02:23.360 --> 00:02:28.280 India occupies. Pakistan occupies a small strip, but India occupies 42 00:02:28.319 --> 00:02:28.719 the most. 43 00:02:29.240 --> 00:02:29.360 Uh. 44 00:02:29.439 --> 00:02:33.039 It's got a heavily Muslim population. So Pakistan claims that 45 00:02:33.080 --> 00:02:33.759 it's their own. 46 00:02:34.560 --> 00:02:34.840 Uh. 47 00:02:34.879 --> 00:02:40.680 But the problem I think lies in internal Pakistani politics. 48 00:02:41.360 --> 00:02:41.479 Uh. 49 00:02:41.919 --> 00:02:47.000 The Pakistani military has built up India to be a 50 00:02:47.039 --> 00:02:50.400 major threat and that justifies the size of the Pakistani 51 00:02:50.520 --> 00:02:54.199 army it justifies the money that a relatively poor country 52 00:02:54.240 --> 00:02:59.360 like Pakistan pours into the military. It justifies the military's 53 00:02:59.360 --> 00:03:03.639 political and economic power. And for them to sort of 54 00:03:03.960 --> 00:03:07.879 back away from pack from India as a threat, we'll 55 00:03:07.960 --> 00:03:09.800 raise a question on the part of the Pakistanis and 56 00:03:09.919 --> 00:03:12.280 why the hell do we have this military Let's let's 57 00:03:12.360 --> 00:03:16.319 let's back down. And now Pakistan is in pretty severe 58 00:03:16.479 --> 00:03:21.159 economic straits. They're having trouble importing, paying bills. Things are 59 00:03:21.159 --> 00:03:24.639 going bad, and it tends to be a tried and 60 00:03:24.680 --> 00:03:32.960 true method to provoke a border tensions, uh low level 61 00:03:32.599 --> 00:03:37.639 conflict with India, to unite the Pakistani people behind the 62 00:03:37.719 --> 00:03:40.360 military and and and look at the India threat. And 63 00:03:40.400 --> 00:03:43.360 that's possibly one of the reasons why this is this 64 00:03:43.439 --> 00:03:48.360 is sparking. But the concern that most people have is 65 00:03:48.400 --> 00:03:52.599 that there is always a possibility of this escalating to 66 00:03:52.680 --> 00:03:56.039 something more. India and Pakistan have had three wars, pretty 67 00:03:56.080 --> 00:04:01.120 sizable wars and pretty sizable border clashes without being an 68 00:04:01.159 --> 00:04:01.840 actual war. 69 00:04:02.800 --> 00:04:04.120 And the concern now. 70 00:04:04.000 --> 00:04:08.319 Is that India is faced with the situation that they 71 00:04:08.439 --> 00:04:11.879 feel they have to respond. Remember this is not an 72 00:04:11.960 --> 00:04:16.079 isolated incidence. This has been going on for I don't know, 73 00:04:16.240 --> 00:04:20.319 nine on fifty years or so, and Pakistan has had 74 00:04:20.480 --> 00:04:24.360 a I don't know, I wouldn't call it a tradition, 75 00:04:24.480 --> 00:04:27.560 but it has had a habit of using terrorist attacks 76 00:04:27.600 --> 00:04:32.079 as a policy tool. The fact that they allow these 77 00:04:32.199 --> 00:04:38.839 organizations to abide inside Pakistan and launch attacks, and the 78 00:04:38.879 --> 00:04:43.759 Indians have sufficient in their view evidence and intelligence that 79 00:04:44.199 --> 00:04:47.920 Pakistanis are behind most of these attacks. Though you have 80 00:04:48.000 --> 00:04:49.839 to allow that every now and then some of these 81 00:04:49.839 --> 00:04:53.399 groups will exceed their authority, but they provide support and 82 00:04:53.399 --> 00:04:56.800 the stuff, and domestically, the Indian government feels it has 83 00:04:56.839 --> 00:05:00.879 to do something. I can't just let multiple people be 84 00:05:01.040 --> 00:05:05.560 killed and not take action. The question becomes what action 85 00:05:05.680 --> 00:05:07.279 are they going to take and what will they be 86 00:05:07.399 --> 00:05:08.160 satisfied with? 87 00:05:10.360 --> 00:05:12.920 You know, it's interesting to see some of the responses 88 00:05:12.920 --> 00:05:15.759 in the Indian media, and I mean, of course some 89 00:05:15.800 --> 00:05:18.279 of it is rhetoric, but you also get the impression, 90 00:05:18.879 --> 00:05:21.800 much like America after nine to eleven or the Israelis 91 00:05:21.879 --> 00:05:27.879 after the recent October seven attack, very emotional views being 92 00:05:28.319 --> 00:05:30.160 represented in public. 93 00:05:31.920 --> 00:05:35.879 Yeah, and and frankly that that's that's the danger when 94 00:05:35.920 --> 00:05:42.759 emotion takes over from logic. Indians are they're they're fed up, 95 00:05:43.680 --> 00:05:47.639 you know, there's been thousands of people killed in India 96 00:05:47.680 --> 00:05:52.399 over the years through terrorist attacks, Mumbai some time ago 97 00:05:52.480 --> 00:05:55.680 being one of the biggest ones. But it is constant. 98 00:05:55.800 --> 00:05:58.360 It is it is like a drip, and you know, 99 00:05:58.439 --> 00:06:00.879 some days it's it's two or three, some days it's 100 00:06:00.879 --> 00:06:04.839 ten or twelve. And so there is a significant amount 101 00:06:04.879 --> 00:06:07.439 of motion involved in it. You know, in this case, 102 00:06:08.319 --> 00:06:12.839 Indians were mostly the ones killed, and Indians now expect 103 00:06:12.920 --> 00:06:19.040 some kind of action. In the past, the Indian government, 104 00:06:19.079 --> 00:06:25.360 the Indian people have been satisfied with Indian military strikes 105 00:06:25.399 --> 00:06:29.040 against terrorist training camps. They pretty much know where they are, 106 00:06:29.120 --> 00:06:35.319 they take them out. There's no direct action against Pakistani forces. 107 00:06:35.360 --> 00:06:40.000 Sometimes the Pakistanis will respond with something moderate, you know, 108 00:06:40.120 --> 00:06:44.160 shelling across the line of control, or try to intercept 109 00:06:44.439 --> 00:06:47.600 Indian Indian jets and this sort of stuff, and then 110 00:06:47.639 --> 00:06:51.439 they step back and call it quits. The concern always 111 00:06:51.560 --> 00:06:55.040 is will they call it quits? Is that enough? If 112 00:06:55.079 --> 00:07:00.600 the emotions are running high and domestically, it becomes a 113 00:07:00.600 --> 00:07:02.360 problem for the government. Are they going to want to 114 00:07:02.399 --> 00:07:07.319 do more? Is it enough to hit terrorist camps or 115 00:07:07.399 --> 00:07:14.439 do they hit Pakistani military? Do they indeed go after 116 00:07:14.480 --> 00:07:16.759 the water supply, because that's one of the big things 117 00:07:16.759 --> 00:07:21.720 that they suspended the water treaty. A significant amount of 118 00:07:21.720 --> 00:07:26.639 Pakistan's water flows out of India, and it's debatable whether 119 00:07:26.639 --> 00:07:29.639 the Indians can actually stop the flow of water, but 120 00:07:29.680 --> 00:07:31.959 they they can affect it. They can affect it through 121 00:07:32.800 --> 00:07:35.720 a whole bunch of different mechanisms. And the Pakistanis has 122 00:07:35.720 --> 00:07:38.800 said this is this is war. So how will they respond? 123 00:07:39.519 --> 00:07:42.720 Will they respond with a military incursion into Cashmir or 124 00:07:42.759 --> 00:07:45.680 into parts of India? 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And additionally, they got t shirts 149 00:09:07.399 --> 00:09:12.120 up there, water bottles, a tote bag, coffee mugs, all 150 00:09:12.120 --> 00:09:14.879 that good stuff. So please go and check them out 151 00:09:14.919 --> 00:09:17.679 and support the show. We really appreciate it, guys. 152 00:09:17.720 --> 00:09:18.039 Thank you. 153 00:09:18.799 --> 00:09:22.519 I'm also reading that they shut down like that, they 154 00:09:22.519 --> 00:09:28.279 shut clearly shut down the border to India for Pakistani people, 155 00:09:29.759 --> 00:09:34.120 and also they cut off announced that we were suspending 156 00:09:34.120 --> 00:09:37.559 the Indus Waters treat Waters Treaty, a nineteen sixty agreement 157 00:09:37.559 --> 00:09:40.559 which of Pakistan's irrigated agriculture. 158 00:09:41.080 --> 00:09:43.799 Yeah, that's what I was talking about. With the water treaty. 159 00:09:44.679 --> 00:09:48.799 Again, India doesn't have the physical ability to shut it 160 00:09:48.840 --> 00:09:51.600 all down, but it does have the ability to impact 161 00:09:52.559 --> 00:09:55.279 the water flow, and that would come at a time 162 00:09:55.440 --> 00:10:00.519 when the dry season is coming and Pakistani ready faces 163 00:10:00.600 --> 00:10:06.159 economic problems and impacting negatively impacting the waterflow is going 164 00:10:06.240 --> 00:10:09.159 to be a disaster for them. There's a lot of 165 00:10:09.240 --> 00:10:12.600 economic things. I just read an article today that airlines 166 00:10:12.639 --> 00:10:16.639 flying out of India have added four hours of flight 167 00:10:16.720 --> 00:10:21.320 time if they're going west because they're circumventing Pakistan, so 168 00:10:21.320 --> 00:10:27.639 they're flying down into the Indian Ocean and then going 169 00:10:27.799 --> 00:10:32.279 up the Persian Gulf, and it's adding time, et cetera. 170 00:10:33.039 --> 00:10:36.240 Because they're trying to avoid crossing Pakistani airspace, which is 171 00:10:36.240 --> 00:10:39.320 the shortest rude. There's a whole lot of economic impacts 172 00:10:39.759 --> 00:10:45.200 that this is having. But unless India impacts the water, 173 00:10:45.799 --> 00:10:49.480 this is economic impact that both countries can absorb without 174 00:10:49.559 --> 00:10:55.399 much problem. I think the question is who, in this case, 175 00:10:55.480 --> 00:10:59.679 probably India, who wants to ratchet up the pressure. There's 176 00:10:59.720 --> 00:11:03.559 a red border skirmishing fighting across the line of control. 177 00:11:03.559 --> 00:11:07.039 They're shooting each other, which is not uncommon even in 178 00:11:07.159 --> 00:11:11.360 times of relative peace. Without any attack there's always a 179 00:11:11.360 --> 00:11:15.840 little skirmishing and firing across the border. The question becomes 180 00:11:16.039 --> 00:11:19.320 does this blowout into something more? And the Indian plan, 181 00:11:20.039 --> 00:11:22.600 which the Indians have advertised over and over again, is 182 00:11:22.639 --> 00:11:27.399 this cold start where they do not require a military 183 00:11:27.440 --> 00:11:31.320 build up to take military action against Pakistan for years, 184 00:11:32.240 --> 00:11:35.919 they have developed this capability to launch from right now, 185 00:11:36.039 --> 00:11:39.480 immediately with the set number of divisions that are already 186 00:11:39.480 --> 00:11:42.960 prepositioned and can launch, So it wouldn't give the pakistanis 187 00:11:43.039 --> 00:11:46.720 much warning or much time. And as everybody knows, the 188 00:11:47.679 --> 00:11:49.840 I think the elephant in the room, what's hanging behind 189 00:11:49.879 --> 00:11:55.519 them is the nuclear problem. Both countries are are nuclear states. 190 00:11:56.840 --> 00:12:00.919 Nobody's one hundred percent sure, but they probably range in 191 00:12:01.039 --> 00:12:06.039 sixty to one hundred nuclear weapons each side, mostly air 192 00:12:06.120 --> 00:12:11.759 delivered and missiles. And there is the significant problem, and 193 00:12:12.399 --> 00:12:15.879 there is where everybody should be concerned. 194 00:12:17.840 --> 00:12:19.200 Let's get into that a little bit. 195 00:12:19.240 --> 00:12:21.200 I mean, I think you did a good job outlining, 196 00:12:22.120 --> 00:12:25.399 you know, the the underlying conflict and where it comes from. 197 00:12:26.960 --> 00:12:29.679 You mentioned that it's already kind of like a in 198 00:12:29.720 --> 00:12:32.759 a sort of low boil because of these border skirmishes. 199 00:12:33.200 --> 00:12:36.679 How do you see this conflict potentially becoming a large 200 00:12:36.720 --> 00:12:39.480 scale conventional conflict, and then how would it make the 201 00:12:39.600 --> 00:12:42.039 jump from conventional to nuclear. How do you see that 202 00:12:42.120 --> 00:12:43.200 taking place if it does? 203 00:12:43.720 --> 00:12:44.519 Hopefully not right? 204 00:12:44.639 --> 00:12:49.919 Yeah, I mean it's one of multiple scenarios and both sides. 205 00:12:50.360 --> 00:12:52.840 I don't think either of them wants a major conflict 206 00:12:52.879 --> 00:12:58.039 or a nuclear war. It's not good for anybody, But 207 00:12:58.159 --> 00:13:06.399 a lot depends on on reaction and emotion. Best case scenarios, 208 00:13:06.480 --> 00:13:09.120 like they've done in the past, a few strikes on 209 00:13:10.000 --> 00:13:14.039 terrorist training camps, both sides flex a little bit of 210 00:13:14.080 --> 00:13:17.039 muscle and they all back away and feel good. Worst 211 00:13:17.039 --> 00:13:22.559 case scenario is an Indian strike intentionally or by accident 212 00:13:23.080 --> 00:13:28.720 against Pakistani military facilities, personnels or whatever, and the Pakistanis 213 00:13:29.639 --> 00:13:33.559 feel they have to respond. At that stage, if you've 214 00:13:33.600 --> 00:13:37.279 got a full blown war one side or the other, 215 00:13:37.519 --> 00:13:43.879 if they start to feel they are losing, and in 216 00:13:43.919 --> 00:13:48.159 this case, I would look at Pakistan as being the 217 00:13:48.159 --> 00:13:50.240 one who feels losing because you know, there's not a 218 00:13:50.279 --> 00:13:53.960 lot of physical strategic depth to Pakistan as compared to India, 219 00:13:55.000 --> 00:14:00.399 and an Indian incursion could pretty much go in into, 220 00:14:00.679 --> 00:14:03.559 you know, pretty deep. Did the Pakistanis field threatened and 221 00:14:03.600 --> 00:14:08.679 then they allow the launch of nuclear weapons. India will 222 00:14:08.720 --> 00:14:13.080 have to retaliate, of course, and that on one scale 223 00:14:13.240 --> 00:14:17.360 is a disaster for the subcontinent. You're talking assuming a 224 00:14:17.480 --> 00:14:20.960 say a twenty five percent use, use of twenty five 225 00:14:20.960 --> 00:14:26.000 percent of their nuclear warheads, You're talking twenty thirty million 226 00:14:26.159 --> 00:14:29.480 dead initially on both sides. Because you know, we're talking 227 00:14:29.600 --> 00:14:33.960 heavily populated countries, very congest I mean, New Deli is 228 00:14:34.080 --> 00:14:38.679 over twenty five million people, and that's well within striking 229 00:14:38.759 --> 00:14:43.639 distance of Pakistan's abilities. So you're gonna have a lot 230 00:14:43.679 --> 00:14:47.240 of dead. But what a lot of people are concerned about, 231 00:14:47.279 --> 00:14:50.519 and what Americans should be concerned about, is the modeling 232 00:14:50.559 --> 00:14:54.559 that's been done in various places on what would happen 233 00:14:54.639 --> 00:14:58.720 with say a nuclear exchange using twenty five percent of 234 00:14:58.720 --> 00:15:05.039 each side's warheads. Radiation is a significant byproduct of a 235 00:15:05.120 --> 00:15:08.399 nuclear exchange, and it's going to form in the atmosphere, 236 00:15:08.919 --> 00:15:13.000 and depending on the time of year, the season, and 237 00:15:13.039 --> 00:15:16.480 the wind pattern, there is a significant better than fifty 238 00:15:16.519 --> 00:15:21.000 percent chance that that nuclear cloud, that contamination is going 239 00:15:21.039 --> 00:15:24.559 to be whisked across the Pacific, and at that point 240 00:15:24.600 --> 00:15:27.720 it becomes a matter of wind pattern whether it goes 241 00:15:27.759 --> 00:15:34.080 on a southerly route through Australia into Central American and 242 00:15:34.240 --> 00:15:37.639 swing back up into the southern US or across the 243 00:15:37.720 --> 00:15:45.159 Central Pacific, hitting Hawaii, California, and then moving into the 244 00:15:45.240 --> 00:15:52.519 American heartland. Our food basically contaminating grain production, fruit and 245 00:15:52.600 --> 00:15:57.159 vegetable productions, and a nuclear cloud of that nature is 246 00:15:57.200 --> 00:16:02.120 going to lead into millions of Americans developing illnesses from 247 00:16:02.240 --> 00:16:07.279 radiation poisoning long term, not necessarily dying in days, but 248 00:16:07.399 --> 00:16:10.399 maybe depending on how bign exchange, how much of it 249 00:16:10.440 --> 00:16:14.120 is carried by the winds, but over time developing cancers 250 00:16:14.159 --> 00:16:18.080 and things, and our food supply poisoned. So you know 251 00:16:18.120 --> 00:16:22.200 we're concerned about tariffs raising food prices, you imagine what 252 00:16:22.240 --> 00:16:24.960 happens when a significant part of the US food supply 253 00:16:25.080 --> 00:16:29.759 is contaminated with radiation. And that has always been in 254 00:16:29.840 --> 00:16:34.600 the back of the US government's mind. If an Indian 255 00:16:34.720 --> 00:16:39.279 Pakistani war turned nuclear, and that's why you see many 256 00:16:39.360 --> 00:16:45.320 times American diplomats shuttling back and forth trying to calm 257 00:16:45.440 --> 00:16:49.679 both sides down and push towards some kind of measured response. Again, 258 00:16:49.759 --> 00:16:53.600 remember they've done war, serious war three times at least now, 259 00:16:54.519 --> 00:16:57.120 with lots of casualties and a lot of shooting. And 260 00:16:57.200 --> 00:17:02.240 this was before they were nuclear powers. Now it's not 261 00:17:02.320 --> 00:17:02.840 so easy. 262 00:17:06.039 --> 00:17:10.880 What steps is the US government taking State Department whatever 263 00:17:11.519 --> 00:17:14.599 to kind of ease tensions and kind of bring this 264 00:17:14.799 --> 00:17:18.480 back to you know, neutral. 265 00:17:18.160 --> 00:17:20.960 That is a damn good question, and I don't have 266 00:17:21.039 --> 00:17:26.200 an answer. I don't know. In the past, we have 267 00:17:26.319 --> 00:17:30.559 seen senior State Department officers, National Security Council, you know, 268 00:17:30.799 --> 00:17:32.799 people in that Security Advisor and that sort of thing, 269 00:17:33.519 --> 00:17:37.319 flying out and doing shittle diplomacy between New Delhi and 270 00:17:37.440 --> 00:17:43.000 Islamabad and trying to negotiate a settlement. I don't get 271 00:17:43.000 --> 00:17:47.519 a sense that this administration is doing that. I do 272 00:17:47.559 --> 00:17:51.240 get a sense that they've cut back on diplomatic activity, 273 00:17:52.200 --> 00:17:58.799 diplomatic representation, pulled back from a lot of what we 274 00:17:58.960 --> 00:18:04.279 used to view as our foreign national security interests. So 275 00:18:04.519 --> 00:18:06.880 I don't know what they're doing. Frankly, I would I 276 00:18:06.920 --> 00:18:08.960 would feel a little bit more comfortable if we can 277 00:18:09.039 --> 00:18:13.119 see it. And you know, part of this negotiation has 278 00:18:13.200 --> 00:18:17.200 to be done in the open, because you've got to 279 00:18:17.240 --> 00:18:20.240 allay people's fears and say look, we're on this, we're 280 00:18:20.279 --> 00:18:24.079 working this. You have to put political international pressure on 281 00:18:24.119 --> 00:18:28.799 both sides. And if we're not doing that, if we're 282 00:18:28.799 --> 00:18:31.599 not out there, I don't know how much this is 283 00:18:31.640 --> 00:18:35.359 this is going to have an impact. The US used 284 00:18:35.400 --> 00:18:41.480 to be viewed as a fairly honest, neutral broker. We 285 00:18:41.519 --> 00:18:43.400 were a little less so neutral when we're doing that 286 00:18:43.440 --> 00:18:46.680 whole g WAT global war and terror because we were 287 00:18:47.599 --> 00:18:49.759 coosing up to the Pakistani because we needed them to 288 00:18:49.799 --> 00:18:53.400 support operations in Afghanistan. And you know, the Indians always 289 00:18:53.440 --> 00:18:56.400 looked at that a skance and you know, you guys 290 00:18:56.519 --> 00:18:59.920 can't be trusted. But in general, we were viewed as 291 00:19:01.359 --> 00:19:03.480 we're sincere that we don't want this to happen, and 292 00:19:03.839 --> 00:19:07.720 we're gonna help both sides resolve the problem. I don't 293 00:19:07.759 --> 00:19:11.559 think we're there now. I don't think we're viewed as 294 00:19:11.599 --> 00:19:18.359 a fairly neutral arbiter in this problem. I have images 295 00:19:18.359 --> 00:19:20.440 of somebody showing up in New Delhi and say, hey, 296 00:19:20.599 --> 00:19:22.680 we'll solve this problem for you for you know, three 297 00:19:22.680 --> 00:19:25.359 billion dollars if you buy this, we'll do this. 298 00:19:25.440 --> 00:19:26.039 You know, very. 299 00:19:25.880 --> 00:19:29.680 Transactional, which is is not going to work in this case. 300 00:19:30.000 --> 00:19:33.559 We have to we have to appeal to the logic, 301 00:19:34.160 --> 00:19:36.880 to the interests on both sides and get them to 302 00:19:36.920 --> 00:19:38.839 see that this is not going to be a good 303 00:19:38.880 --> 00:19:42.240 thing if they both went to war. So you know, my, my, 304 00:19:42.240 --> 00:19:45.319 my less than satisfying answer is I don't know, uh, 305 00:19:45.440 --> 00:19:47.680 and I am worried that we're not there. 306 00:19:50.279 --> 00:19:52.160 Yeah, I mean you're not really seeing it in the press. 307 00:19:52.240 --> 00:19:56.039 Anything I've seen is like the US is urging restraint. 308 00:19:56.359 --> 00:19:57.720 It's like cool, no ship. 309 00:19:57.960 --> 00:19:59.920 I mean, yeah, everybody's urging restraint. 310 00:20:00.119 --> 00:20:00.759 Yeah. 311 00:20:00.920 --> 00:20:03.400 Yeah, you got to do more than urge. You just 312 00:20:03.440 --> 00:20:06.039 can't sit there and say, oh, we want peace. You 313 00:20:06.119 --> 00:20:08.319 got to get your ass out there and work for it. 314 00:20:08.480 --> 00:20:11.920 And you've got to send people and you've got to 315 00:20:11.960 --> 00:20:15.920 convince them, and you may have to offer up some 316 00:20:16.079 --> 00:20:18.160 benny some benefits out there. And look, you know, well 317 00:20:18.200 --> 00:20:19.799 this trade deal will do this. You guys got to 318 00:20:19.839 --> 00:20:23.079 stop here. Here's what's going to happen. It's not happening. 319 00:20:23.119 --> 00:20:26.799 You see the Chinese trying to but you know, China 320 00:20:27.480 --> 00:20:31.759 is not viewed as a helpful partner in India, and 321 00:20:31.799 --> 00:20:35.400 it is viewed as very heavily aligned with Pakistan, and 322 00:20:35.440 --> 00:20:40.039 it is right now. It's pretty much the US that 323 00:20:40.079 --> 00:20:43.160 could sort of straddle both sides, or used to be. 324 00:20:43.279 --> 00:20:45.200 I don't know what it's like, now. 325 00:20:47.000 --> 00:20:49.519 I got a question whenever, like because you know, we 326 00:20:49.640 --> 00:20:52.720 cozied up to Pakistan during the GUOT and whenever we 327 00:20:52.720 --> 00:20:56.400 would hear about like the ISI doing like doing fuckery 328 00:20:56.559 --> 00:21:00.400 and working with the Taliban, and yes, with India be 329 00:21:00.480 --> 00:21:02.799 like I told you guys. 330 00:21:02.839 --> 00:21:06.680 Oh yes, when I was there, I used to get 331 00:21:07.000 --> 00:21:09.839 slapped around all the time by like, what the hell 332 00:21:09.839 --> 00:21:13.200 are you guys doing? These people are supporting people who 333 00:21:13.200 --> 00:21:14.279 are killing your troops. 334 00:21:14.920 --> 00:21:15.160 Uh. 335 00:21:15.200 --> 00:21:17.960 And and you know you don't have a good response 336 00:21:18.039 --> 00:21:19.920 that at least that they will be happy with. You 337 00:21:20.200 --> 00:21:23.119 can kind of not say understand, But there are bigger 338 00:21:24.200 --> 00:21:27.119 geopolitical strategic issues we got to deal with, Like you know, 339 00:21:27.160 --> 00:21:30.160 if they cut off the roots into Afghanistan, we can't 340 00:21:30.160 --> 00:21:31.119 supply our people. 341 00:21:31.839 --> 00:21:32.359 Uh. 342 00:21:32.559 --> 00:21:35.920 But yeah, the Indians the time and time again were 343 00:21:36.000 --> 00:21:41.200 dumbfounded by how cozy we got with the Pakistanis, who 344 00:21:41.240 --> 00:21:45.200 they view, rightly or wrongly, as a personification of evil 345 00:21:45.279 --> 00:21:46.400 evil in the subcontinent. 346 00:21:47.039 --> 00:21:47.480 Uh. 347 00:21:48.000 --> 00:21:49.880 You know, but at the same time, the Indians were 348 00:21:49.880 --> 00:21:53.279 so cozy with the Russians that we viewed them very suspiciously. 349 00:21:53.920 --> 00:21:58.519 Uh. So yeah, it's it's and I would argue that probably. 350 00:21:58.200 --> 00:22:02.799 Still all our image is tainted by how close we 351 00:22:02.799 --> 00:22:07.000 were to Pakistan during the g WAT. 352 00:22:08.839 --> 00:22:11.920 Yeah, the Indians sure don't trust us, the two sides. 353 00:22:11.960 --> 00:22:15.480 I mean, the paranoia is also I sense a bit 354 00:22:15.559 --> 00:22:19.839 through the roof, like the conspiracy theories and like if something, 355 00:22:19.920 --> 00:22:22.400 you know, if it rains out that day, they're like, oh, well, 356 00:22:22.440 --> 00:22:23.480 the Pakistanis did that. 357 00:22:25.519 --> 00:22:28.759 Yeah, you know, it's actually it's we're very much like 358 00:22:28.839 --> 00:22:32.240 that now too. Yeah, but yeah, there is you know, 359 00:22:34.440 --> 00:22:37.839 there are a lot of regions throughout the world where 360 00:22:37.880 --> 00:22:46.640 conspiracy theories override truth logic policy, and there is a 361 00:22:47.119 --> 00:22:50.000 there is a tendency for both sides to blame the 362 00:22:50.039 --> 00:22:53.559 other for a significant amount of evil that goes on 363 00:22:53.599 --> 00:22:54.359 in their countries. 364 00:22:56.079 --> 00:22:56.279 You know. 365 00:22:56.759 --> 00:23:02.119 It's it's like one of the big things remember during 366 00:23:02.119 --> 00:23:06.000 our involvement in Afghanistan is as we are trying to 367 00:23:07.359 --> 00:23:11.279 cozy with the Pakistanis and. 368 00:23:12.759 --> 00:23:14.000 You know, because we needed. 369 00:23:13.799 --> 00:23:19.079 Them for the support diplomatically, we were urging the Indians 370 00:23:19.079 --> 00:23:22.480 to get economically involved in Afghanistan to help rebuild the country. 371 00:23:22.519 --> 00:23:25.079 We didn't want to do it all by ourselves, and 372 00:23:25.119 --> 00:23:28.039 the Indians like, okay, we'll see, and they upped their 373 00:23:28.119 --> 00:23:30.960 presence in kabble and sent aid and stuff. 374 00:23:30.960 --> 00:23:33.319 The Pakistanis hit the roof. 375 00:23:33.960 --> 00:23:37.079 They went high paranoid and said, look, that's the Indians 376 00:23:37.359 --> 00:23:41.279 trying to surround us and get behind us. And what 377 00:23:41.319 --> 00:23:44.519 they're doing is building influence inside Afghanistan so that the 378 00:23:44.559 --> 00:23:48.160 next war they invade us from both sides. And they 379 00:23:48.200 --> 00:23:51.759 started taking, you know, all different kinds of actions against India, 380 00:23:51.839 --> 00:23:54.359 especially in Afghanistan because they thought here they come here, 381 00:23:54.359 --> 00:23:56.039 the Indians are going to try to overthrow us and 382 00:23:56.039 --> 00:23:59.039 do this kind of stuff. So it's one of those 383 00:23:59.559 --> 00:24:01.519 you know, if you do, damned if you don't. 384 00:24:02.079 --> 00:24:02.359 Uh. 385 00:24:02.400 --> 00:24:06.559 And it makes trying to bridge the gap between India 386 00:24:06.559 --> 00:24:10.839 and Pakistan very difficult because as soon as you come 387 00:24:10.880 --> 00:24:14.960 in with anything that looks like as part of a 388 00:24:15.000 --> 00:24:17.799 deal there's a slight benefit to the other side, they're 389 00:24:17.839 --> 00:24:18.799 starting to point the finger. 390 00:24:18.839 --> 00:24:20.359 Aha, you're working them. 391 00:24:20.559 --> 00:24:22.599 You're in cahoots with these guys, and you're gonna try 392 00:24:22.599 --> 00:24:24.640 to overthrow our governments. You're like, oh shit, no, we're 393 00:24:24.680 --> 00:24:26.720 just trying to prevent nuclear holocaust. 394 00:24:27.480 --> 00:24:30.359 So yeah, paranoia is it. It goes. 395 00:24:30.359 --> 00:24:33.079 It's it doesn't take much to get them over the top. 396 00:24:34.039 --> 00:24:37.359 It doesn't even take putting the match to the to 397 00:24:37.400 --> 00:24:39.160 the fuse, so you can do strike the match and 398 00:24:39.160 --> 00:24:41.319 they're gone. It's that's there. There, it is there, it 399 00:24:41.359 --> 00:24:42.079 is that's what you're gonna do. 400 00:24:44.880 --> 00:24:45.160 Wow. 401 00:24:45.759 --> 00:24:47.920