WEBVTT 1 00:00:04.639 --> 00:00:08.199 With Laurent's segole and from London and Gerard read from Berlin. 2 00:00:08.720 --> 00:00:10.839 This is redefining energy. 3 00:00:11.080 --> 00:00:14.000 Today on Reefin Energy. This is our last episode of 4 00:00:14.039 --> 00:00:17.760 Arsona series. We're going to restart very strong early September 5 00:00:17.920 --> 00:00:21.440 with extraordinary guests that we have the privilege of having 6 00:00:21.480 --> 00:00:25.679 conversations with. But for this episode, job you was so 7 00:00:25.839 --> 00:00:29.960 good that it really deserved an episode, and you were 8 00:00:30.039 --> 00:00:32.000 on stage explain what it was. 9 00:00:32.520 --> 00:00:32.759 Yeah. 10 00:00:32.840 --> 00:00:35.719 So I was invited a few months back to present 11 00:00:35.960 --> 00:00:40.280 at the customer event of Ecovadas and Ecovadas is one 12 00:00:40.320 --> 00:00:45.240 of the biggest consultants in the whole area of sustainability 13 00:00:45.280 --> 00:00:47.719 across the world. So what they do is they will 14 00:00:48.119 --> 00:00:51.600 look at the whole value chain and do everything from 15 00:00:51.840 --> 00:00:55.320 measuring carbon emissions to whatever. But that's what they do. 16 00:00:55.840 --> 00:00:58.679 Really interesting for me just it was a different type 17 00:00:58.679 --> 00:01:00.640 of people in the room that I'm used to speaking to. 18 00:01:01.320 --> 00:01:05.120 So you're talking to people who are sustainability officers and 19 00:01:05.319 --> 00:01:09.680 procurement officers and stuff like that in industrial companies across 20 00:01:09.719 --> 00:01:12.280 the world. So yeah, that was what I was doing. 21 00:01:12.599 --> 00:01:14.719 The fan took and place in Paris some months back. 22 00:01:14.760 --> 00:01:17.640 Because the business is French, very nice and. 23 00:01:17.719 --> 00:01:19.319 You had good feedback afterwards. 24 00:01:19.599 --> 00:01:21.760 Great feedback, Yeah, absolutely, great feedback. 25 00:01:22.120 --> 00:01:24.760 Well, look, the guys don't give us a good feedback, 26 00:01:25.640 --> 00:01:26.599 they can't go to hell. 27 00:01:29.480 --> 00:01:29.959 Which are that? 28 00:01:30.599 --> 00:01:36.159 Okay, let's listen to the conversation. He's welcome, Energy transition 29 00:01:36.400 --> 00:01:45.040 expert and sustainability leader, Gerard read. 30 00:01:44.480 --> 00:01:47.680 Well, thank you very much for actually having me. I 31 00:01:47.719 --> 00:01:50.319 come from the finance world, and I've probably spent the 32 00:01:50.359 --> 00:01:53.959 last twenty years of my life really advising people what 33 00:01:54.359 --> 00:01:56.439 to do with their money in this whole technology area 34 00:01:56.480 --> 00:01:59.280 and energy area, and I'm very convinced that actually we're 35 00:01:59.280 --> 00:02:00.879 in a revolution, and I'm going to talk a little 36 00:02:00.920 --> 00:02:03.040 bit about that and what it means. Right if I 37 00:02:03.040 --> 00:02:06.159 look back in time, which you realize is the biggest 38 00:02:06.280 --> 00:02:10.879 revolutions in terms of progression of mankind, in terms of GDP, etc. 39 00:02:11.639 --> 00:02:14.479 Happen when you have an industrial revolution, and industrial evolution 40 00:02:14.599 --> 00:02:17.840 happens when you have a technology innovation and you have 41 00:02:18.000 --> 00:02:20.960 some new use of energy. So the first one was 42 00:02:21.039 --> 00:02:23.680 there by Britain and that was the steam engine and coal, 43 00:02:24.159 --> 00:02:26.240 and then we had the second one, which was led 44 00:02:26.240 --> 00:02:29.800 by the United States Europe, and what we had was 45 00:02:29.840 --> 00:02:32.800 internal combustion engine and automobile. Now, if you compare it 46 00:02:32.800 --> 00:02:35.680 to China, what you realize is that China actually hasn't 47 00:02:35.680 --> 00:02:38.719 developed over that period whatsoever. So the Western world went 48 00:02:38.800 --> 00:02:42.280 like this, right, and again, huge impact when we go 49 00:02:42.360 --> 00:02:44.280 through this period. I'll make a point now that we're 50 00:02:44.319 --> 00:02:47.520 in the exact same situation today and we're in the 51 00:02:47.520 --> 00:02:51.479 industrial evolution, that every industrial evolution is all about digitalization 52 00:02:52.039 --> 00:02:55.879 and it's about electricity. I really don't care tomorrow if 53 00:02:55.960 --> 00:02:58.759 I don't have oil. This city here, if it doesn't 54 00:02:58.759 --> 00:03:02.319 have electricity for three days falls apart. Okay, you can't 55 00:03:02.360 --> 00:03:05.280 do anything without electricity. Now you can imagine. I'm just 56 00:03:05.319 --> 00:03:07.240 saying we're only the beginnings of this. The reason I'm 57 00:03:07.280 --> 00:03:11.400 saying this is because AI is an enormous change, and 58 00:03:11.439 --> 00:03:14.639 I make a point that it is the biggest technology 59 00:03:15.039 --> 00:03:18.000 revolution we've seen in the history of mankind. That's how 60 00:03:18.000 --> 00:03:19.319 big it is. So I'm going to talk a little 61 00:03:19.319 --> 00:03:22.560 bit about what that means. So the first question you 62 00:03:22.599 --> 00:03:24.759 asked is, how do you know where they're in a revolution? 63 00:03:25.120 --> 00:03:26.960 In other words, Jared, you're talking about the future. 64 00:03:27.039 --> 00:03:30.120 How do we know you know what when experts gets 65 00:03:30.199 --> 00:03:31.080 things wrong? 66 00:03:31.599 --> 00:03:34.280 Okay, I'm just going to talk about those of you 67 00:03:34.319 --> 00:03:36.879 probably have heard a deep seek and stuff like this. 68 00:03:37.719 --> 00:03:41.479 Ali Baba is the Amazon of China. They just announced 69 00:03:41.560 --> 00:03:43.400 a program the other day and I have program called 70 00:03:43.439 --> 00:03:47.319 q when and QWN has better math scores and basically 71 00:03:47.360 --> 00:03:50.400 everything we have done in the West, in the AI world, 72 00:03:50.759 --> 00:03:53.039 and they're doing this at one six of the energy costs. 73 00:03:53.800 --> 00:03:57.439 Now again, I had conversations before Christmas with experts in 74 00:03:57.479 --> 00:04:00.240 the area, and they say the Chinese are way behind. Okay, 75 00:04:00.520 --> 00:04:03.240 They're not way behind, right. The second thing, though, I 76 00:04:03.280 --> 00:04:05.680 would go on and say, is it's not just in 77 00:04:05.719 --> 00:04:09.039 the AI space, this is in the solar space. This 78 00:04:09.199 --> 00:04:13.639 is the IA International Energy Agency twenty nineteen predictions where 79 00:04:13.919 --> 00:04:18.839 twenty twenty four we'd have cottal renewable installations of. 80 00:04:19.120 --> 00:04:20.519 Two hundred and fifty gigawatts. 81 00:04:20.879 --> 00:04:22.920 So just to give you an idea, China last year 82 00:04:23.079 --> 00:04:25.600 just in solar was three hundred and the global was 83 00:04:25.680 --> 00:04:28.680 six hundreds. So completely wrong, not just a little bit, 84 00:04:28.720 --> 00:04:31.839 but can completely wrong. I come from the investment banking world. 85 00:04:31.959 --> 00:04:34.040 Didn't work for Goldman. Sachs are going to smack them. 86 00:04:34.439 --> 00:04:38.759 Goldman smacks basically said twenty nineteen, forget about the electrification 87 00:04:38.839 --> 00:04:41.800 of the automobile. It isn't going to happen. We basically 88 00:04:41.839 --> 00:04:45.399 believe by twenty thirty we'll have ten million evs. Okay, 89 00:04:45.519 --> 00:04:48.240 China is at that level today, all right, Just just 90 00:04:48.399 --> 00:04:51.920 China is at that level today. But it's not just that. 91 00:04:52.720 --> 00:04:55.319 If any of you are Dutch and you're living there 92 00:04:55.360 --> 00:04:57.240 and you want to go and get a new house connected, 93 00:04:57.519 --> 00:04:59.639 you want to get a new business connected. In terms 94 00:04:59.680 --> 00:05:03.839 of power connection, you cannot get power all right, that's 95 00:05:03.879 --> 00:05:06.000 not normal because you sort of go, well, you've been 96 00:05:06.000 --> 00:05:08.480 predicting power flows for the last one hundred years, why 97 00:05:08.480 --> 00:05:11.160 can't you certainly not do it now. But again I'm 98 00:05:11.160 --> 00:05:14.120 making a point is that there's so much change going 99 00:05:14.120 --> 00:05:16.800 on that the established leaders can't do it. And it's 100 00:05:16.800 --> 00:05:19.639 not just that if we decide today we want to 101 00:05:19.759 --> 00:05:23.560 order a transformer, you know, a standard piece of electrical equipment, 102 00:05:24.000 --> 00:05:27.439 or a gas turbine, you could be waiting until twenty thirty. 103 00:05:27.160 --> 00:05:27.639 To get one. 104 00:05:28.319 --> 00:05:32.720 They're sold out across the whole world. Then my last 105 00:05:32.720 --> 00:05:34.680 point I would make in this is if you go 106 00:05:34.720 --> 00:05:36.639 and look and we'll complare the old world to the 107 00:05:36.680 --> 00:05:37.120 new world. 108 00:05:37.199 --> 00:05:38.839 For me, Germany is the old world. 109 00:05:39.040 --> 00:05:42.800 It's full of industrial companies that were built at the 110 00:05:42.800 --> 00:05:45.720 beginning of the twentieth century. And the value of the 111 00:05:45.759 --> 00:05:49.399 top forty companies in Germany is two trillion, and you've 112 00:05:49.439 --> 00:05:52.600 got three US companies that have valuations higher than that. 113 00:05:53.480 --> 00:05:56.680 Just one company. I'm not talking three companies. I'm talking 114 00:05:56.800 --> 00:06:00.600 one company. That only happens when the stock market, the 115 00:06:00.600 --> 00:06:04.639 financial investors, is saying, well, the futures with those companies, right, 116 00:06:04.680 --> 00:06:08.560 that's what it's telling you. Okay, So what does this mean? 117 00:06:09.079 --> 00:06:11.079 Let me just talk a little bit about this. The 118 00:06:11.120 --> 00:06:12.959 one thing I'm going to start with is AI. The 119 00:06:13.160 --> 00:06:16.800 speed of change in AI is unbelievable. I started using 120 00:06:16.879 --> 00:06:18.920 chat GBT two and a half years ago and I 121 00:06:19.040 --> 00:06:22.560 tried doing basic mathematics with it, and it was making 122 00:06:22.600 --> 00:06:25.519 mistakes and I would ask, why are you making mistakes? 123 00:06:25.560 --> 00:06:28.800 And it would say, nobody's perfect. Okay, That's what it 124 00:06:28.879 --> 00:06:32.360 was saying to me. Now, what's really interesting is we're 125 00:06:32.439 --> 00:06:36.800 now at PhD level in all of the sciences. We 126 00:06:36.879 --> 00:06:39.600 haven't bypassed the top ones yet, but we're not far off. 127 00:06:39.680 --> 00:06:43.000 So just the speed of change is genormous. I want 128 00:06:43.000 --> 00:06:44.639 to talk a little bit about what's going to happen 129 00:06:44.680 --> 00:06:48.319 going forward. We are definitely going to integrate this into 130 00:06:48.319 --> 00:06:51.519 our workplaces, and the first place that's going to happen 131 00:06:51.639 --> 00:06:55.199 is in and around customer support. I take a very 132 00:06:55.199 --> 00:06:58.399 simple example. If I want to go to a doctor today, 133 00:06:58.480 --> 00:07:00.959 what does the doctor do? He asked me a series 134 00:07:01.000 --> 00:07:04.439 of questions. He might measure my blood pressure. That's what 135 00:07:04.480 --> 00:07:06.279 he does, and then he gives a diagnosis. 136 00:07:06.360 --> 00:07:06.879 I'm sorry. 137 00:07:07.839 --> 00:07:10.319 I have a blood pressure monitor today that I can use. 138 00:07:10.439 --> 00:07:12.439 You can see where I'm coming from. I go on 139 00:07:12.560 --> 00:07:16.040 to an internet program and basically AI is giving me 140 00:07:16.120 --> 00:07:18.600 that first step in terms of what's wrong with me, 141 00:07:18.680 --> 00:07:21.399 what's not and I can take that through every area 142 00:07:21.480 --> 00:07:24.720 of customer service. Okay, So that's the first point that. 143 00:07:25.240 --> 00:07:26.680 I would say. 144 00:07:26.800 --> 00:07:30.879 The second point is Robot taxis are coming now. Robot 145 00:07:30.920 --> 00:07:34.079 taxis are autonomous cards, and I just want to give 146 00:07:34.079 --> 00:07:36.519 an eye on the left. There is the amount of 147 00:07:36.759 --> 00:07:40.160 autonomous rides that are taking place, and way more, which 148 00:07:40.199 --> 00:07:45.759 is Google nine million annualized autom autonomous drives are taking 149 00:07:45.759 --> 00:07:46.279 place now. 150 00:07:46.279 --> 00:07:46.720 In Europe. 151 00:07:46.800 --> 00:07:50.319 It's not allowed, okay, but this is happening already in 152 00:07:50.360 --> 00:07:52.600 the United States. And you've got a whole pile of 153 00:07:52.639 --> 00:07:54.839 Chinese companies pick packing up on this, et. 154 00:07:54.759 --> 00:07:55.399 Cetera, et cetera. 155 00:07:55.839 --> 00:07:59.639 Now, why this wins is because of cost. Because if 156 00:07:59.639 --> 00:08:02.600 I've got autonomous car that drives around twenty four hours 157 00:08:02.639 --> 00:08:05.800 a day, guess what the cost of driving that kilometer 158 00:08:05.839 --> 00:08:09.240 collapses down. And that's where we're going. You cannot stop 159 00:08:09.279 --> 00:08:12.240 it because it's technology and its economics. And if you 160 00:08:12.399 --> 00:08:14.800 decide to tech blow blocket, guess what happens. You just 161 00:08:14.839 --> 00:08:17.639 lose a competitive advantage. That's what happens because somebody else 162 00:08:17.680 --> 00:08:20.199 will do it instead of you. The next point I 163 00:08:20.199 --> 00:08:23.199 would say is AI will have a massive impact on 164 00:08:23.279 --> 00:08:26.879 health and longevity. So for those of you realize we've 165 00:08:26.879 --> 00:08:28.800 obviously been through a COVID crisis. 166 00:08:29.279 --> 00:08:30.120 Boats of the. 167 00:08:30.160 --> 00:08:33.480 Leading drugs that were produced during this period were done 168 00:08:33.559 --> 00:08:36.759 with the aid of AI. Okay, realize that these two 169 00:08:36.840 --> 00:08:39.480 drugs came onto the market and they were on the 170 00:08:39.519 --> 00:08:42.639 market within six months. This has never happened before in 171 00:08:42.679 --> 00:08:46.039 the history of pharmaceutical development. And by the way, boats 172 00:08:46.240 --> 00:08:48.919 the companies that developed these drugs were in the cancer area, 173 00:08:48.919 --> 00:08:51.120 and then we're shifted to go and develop something in 174 00:08:51.120 --> 00:08:53.320 the area of the flues, which is they're not in. 175 00:08:53.679 --> 00:08:53.840 Now. 176 00:08:53.840 --> 00:08:56.600 I say this because this is only the start of this. 177 00:08:57.000 --> 00:08:59.799 We're going to test everything. What this means when you 178 00:09:00.039 --> 00:09:03.600 test everything is you can prevent diseases or catch them early. 179 00:09:04.399 --> 00:09:07.240 I heard one recent and I won't mention who he is, 180 00:09:07.279 --> 00:09:10.440 but CEO one of the pharmaceutical business said by twenty 181 00:09:10.679 --> 00:09:13.399 thirty there will be no cancer in the western world. 182 00:09:14.000 --> 00:09:16.320 I mean, that's a big statement that he made, and 183 00:09:16.360 --> 00:09:19.879 again this is because of AI. Next point I would 184 00:09:19.919 --> 00:09:24.759 make is we are moving to humanoid robots. We already 185 00:09:24.840 --> 00:09:29.080 have them in factories. Go into a Chinese automobile factory today, 186 00:09:29.080 --> 00:09:31.759 it's full of them, right, But we will use them 187 00:09:32.039 --> 00:09:32.840 in our homes. 188 00:09:33.200 --> 00:09:33.600 Okay. 189 00:09:34.360 --> 00:09:36.840 My brother the other day sent me from Barcelona a 190 00:09:36.879 --> 00:09:39.960 picture of a robot dog that walked in front of him, 191 00:09:39.960 --> 00:09:42.639 and he called the dog over him and the dog 192 00:09:42.720 --> 00:09:44.120 went chup, chup and looked at him like this. 193 00:09:44.279 --> 00:09:44.440 Right. 194 00:09:44.519 --> 00:09:47.919 I'm just saying that's where we're going. People are going 195 00:09:47.919 --> 00:09:50.879 to integrate them again because of economics and because I 196 00:09:50.879 --> 00:09:52.799 don't like washing the dishes, so if I can get 197 00:09:52.799 --> 00:09:54.039 a robot to do it, great. 198 00:09:54.200 --> 00:09:55.600 Okay. 199 00:09:55.919 --> 00:09:57.519 What I would say about all this, though, is if 200 00:09:57.559 --> 00:10:01.480 you've got AI, you need electricity. It's as simple as that. 201 00:10:01.600 --> 00:10:04.879 You need electricity. If your robot runs out of batteries 202 00:10:05.000 --> 00:10:07.919 or whatever it is, electricity, it doesn't work. Okay, So 203 00:10:08.000 --> 00:10:12.200 electricity really incredible. And when we digitalize things again, you 204 00:10:12.279 --> 00:10:14.559 need more and more electricity. The future going forward is 205 00:10:14.559 --> 00:10:17.679 you electrified. What this means, though, is power demand will 206 00:10:17.720 --> 00:10:21.240 go up across the world. Now, power demand will go up, 207 00:10:21.320 --> 00:10:24.080 not just because we're electrifying what I'm talking about. Did 208 00:10:24.080 --> 00:10:26.279 you like, you're going to electrify industry, You're going to 209 00:10:26.320 --> 00:10:29.879 electrify heating, you're going to electrify transport, and you're going 210 00:10:29.919 --> 00:10:32.919 to do data centers, etcetera, etc. So again I'm looking 211 00:10:32.960 --> 00:10:35.080 at the world where I don't care about oil or 212 00:10:35.080 --> 00:10:35.759 gas anymore. 213 00:10:35.799 --> 00:10:36.480 I really don't. 214 00:10:36.600 --> 00:10:38.879 I care about electricity, and all of us in the 215 00:10:38.919 --> 00:10:41.399 room care about it because if your mobile phone runs 216 00:10:41.440 --> 00:10:44.080 out of batteries, it's a complete ain in the backside. 217 00:10:44.759 --> 00:10:46.840 Let me make another statement is that the future system 218 00:10:46.879 --> 00:10:49.240 will be based around solar. And you might go, oh 219 00:10:49.320 --> 00:10:52.080 my god, what's he talking about. So just to give 220 00:10:52.080 --> 00:10:55.039 you an idea, today, we're moving to a situation of 221 00:10:55.120 --> 00:10:58.039 what i'd call plug and play solar. Plug and play 222 00:10:58.120 --> 00:11:00.080 solar is where I put a solar panel there, the 223 00:11:00.720 --> 00:11:02.879 sun is there, and I plug it in the wall. 224 00:11:03.679 --> 00:11:07.840 There is no electrician needed, no engineering, nothing in Germany today. 225 00:11:07.840 --> 00:11:11.080 If I do this, it's called balcony solar. I'm generating 226 00:11:11.080 --> 00:11:14.840 electricity of four cents killer whatever I pay in Germany 227 00:11:14.960 --> 00:11:18.360 thirty five cents. Do you really think that people are 228 00:11:18.360 --> 00:11:20.159 not going to do this? And do you really think 229 00:11:20.200 --> 00:11:23.960 you're the're gonna stop it? You're not because it's so economic. 230 00:11:24.039 --> 00:11:26.960 It's about economics. It's not about anything else about economics 231 00:11:27.159 --> 00:11:31.039 and ease of actually going and installing something. The next 232 00:11:31.039 --> 00:11:32.960 point I would say around this is that we will 233 00:11:33.000 --> 00:11:35.879 also have lots of batteries. Now why do I say batteries, Well, 234 00:11:35.960 --> 00:11:38.600 guess what. Of course, what happens when the sun goes out, 235 00:11:39.200 --> 00:11:41.879 sun's not there. You need to store it. When you 236 00:11:41.879 --> 00:11:43.799 store it in batteries. And you might say, oh, we 237 00:11:43.840 --> 00:11:46.639 can't do this. Every single person in the room here 238 00:11:46.639 --> 00:11:49.240 has a battery in their pocket. I count to my 239 00:11:49.360 --> 00:11:51.919 own home as it is, there's probably two hundred batteries 240 00:11:51.919 --> 00:11:54.320 in my home. So what's the problem. I put another 241 00:11:54.320 --> 00:11:56.879 bigger battery in. It's called an electric car. I connect 242 00:11:56.879 --> 00:11:59.440 it into a power system. I put another battery in 243 00:11:59.480 --> 00:11:59.919 my garret. 244 00:12:00.080 --> 00:12:02.759 What's the issue. The batteries will be everywhere. 245 00:12:03.320 --> 00:12:06.039 Okay, And again it becomes back to economics. 246 00:12:06.519 --> 00:12:08.360 If we decide today that. 247 00:12:08.279 --> 00:12:10.559 We're going to build a nuclear power station, it'll take 248 00:12:10.639 --> 00:12:13.600 us ten years. If we decide today we're going to 249 00:12:13.600 --> 00:12:16.200 build a gigawater solar and put batteries around it, I 250 00:12:16.240 --> 00:12:19.080 can do it a year. Remember, if it's about speed, 251 00:12:19.120 --> 00:12:21.519 that's what I'm talking about. Speed in economics is really 252 00:12:21.559 --> 00:12:25.080 critical to this. Okay, let's talk a little bit about evs. 253 00:12:25.600 --> 00:12:28.120 What we've got in the EV area is we've got 254 00:12:28.159 --> 00:12:32.799 cost party. In terms of production of automobiles internal combustion engine, 255 00:12:32.879 --> 00:12:37.799 it peaked in twenty seventeen. That means Renald BMW, etc. 256 00:12:38.039 --> 00:12:40.440 Et cetera, we're producing less and less in them every year. 257 00:12:40.480 --> 00:12:41.039 That's a fact. 258 00:12:41.720 --> 00:12:44.360 Young generation don't want to drive as much as we do. 259 00:12:44.639 --> 00:12:47.360 For a start, it's not a status syllable. And again, 260 00:12:47.399 --> 00:12:50.919 if you're Chinese, forty percent of all young people buy 261 00:12:51.000 --> 00:12:54.679 electric cars straight away. We also have reached cost party 262 00:12:54.759 --> 00:12:58.240 in China that this is very very very important. Cost 263 00:12:58.279 --> 00:13:02.120 parity means that once you've got a car that performs better, 264 00:13:02.440 --> 00:13:05.679 it's cheaper to run and cheaper to buy. Are you 265 00:13:05.720 --> 00:13:08.159 really going to buy that more expensive thing? Now, Don't 266 00:13:08.200 --> 00:13:10.360 get me wrong, there's people out there still by Harley 267 00:13:10.480 --> 00:13:12.720 Davison's so I'm sure there's going to be people out 268 00:13:12.720 --> 00:13:15.159 there in the future who will buy Renolds and diamoners 269 00:13:15.200 --> 00:13:18.200 and stuff like that. But it's a tiny niche market. Okay, 270 00:13:18.600 --> 00:13:22.600 the mass will not do this because it's just too expensive. Now, 271 00:13:22.799 --> 00:13:25.879 what does AI mean for the world of electricity? Well, 272 00:13:25.879 --> 00:13:28.600 the electricity system that we have in place is a 273 00:13:28.600 --> 00:13:31.399 pretty stupid system. It was invented like one hundred and 274 00:13:31.399 --> 00:13:33.720 twenty five years ago and we still manage it in 275 00:13:33.759 --> 00:13:37.039 the same way. And what that means is the grid 276 00:13:37.080 --> 00:13:40.840 operator constantly tries to predict demand and then he turns 277 00:13:40.879 --> 00:13:44.799 on and off turbines to make sure they match. That's great, 278 00:13:45.000 --> 00:13:47.360 but we're now in a really complex world where we've 279 00:13:47.360 --> 00:13:50.799 got so many devices connected into this power system that 280 00:13:50.879 --> 00:13:52.320 actually that doesn't work anymore. 281 00:13:52.559 --> 00:13:53.159 So we have to. 282 00:13:53.200 --> 00:13:55.399 Change the way we think about this. That means we 283 00:13:55.480 --> 00:13:59.799 need to have the boat sides demand dynamically matching some 284 00:14:00.080 --> 00:14:03.320 fly and have storage in between. That's where we're going, 285 00:14:03.320 --> 00:14:07.759 and it requires real innovation and I would say, release 286 00:14:07.840 --> 00:14:11.320 of technology into this world. What I will say all 287 00:14:11.360 --> 00:14:13.679 of this means is this is the good news. The 288 00:14:13.720 --> 00:14:16.440 world is very close to peak carbon emissions. Now why 289 00:14:16.440 --> 00:14:18.879 do I say that, I say that very simple is 290 00:14:19.240 --> 00:14:22.519 because if China peaks, the world peaks, and China is 291 00:14:22.559 --> 00:14:25.679 really close to peaking. Now I give you the numbers. 292 00:14:25.679 --> 00:14:28.519 For example, in terms of China last year, China would 293 00:14:28.519 --> 00:14:32.559 have installed three hundred and fifty gigawatts of renewables last year. 294 00:14:33.080 --> 00:14:37.879 To put that into perspective, that's the power needs of France, Germany, 295 00:14:38.120 --> 00:14:41.120 Italy put together. That's what they've done in one year. 296 00:14:41.799 --> 00:14:44.960 All right, So just the scale of transformation is enormous. 297 00:14:45.399 --> 00:14:49.720 They do are basically installing fifty percent of everything across 298 00:14:49.759 --> 00:14:53.000 the electricity and renewable space. And again they're not doing 299 00:14:53.039 --> 00:14:55.360 this because it's expensive. They're doing it because it's cheap 300 00:14:55.399 --> 00:14:57.960 and because it makes economic sense, and it definitely makes 301 00:14:58.000 --> 00:15:02.080 geopalytical sense. You really believe that Africa is going to 302 00:15:02.080 --> 00:15:04.960 follow us? Why would they follow us? Why would you 303 00:15:05.000 --> 00:15:07.519 follow something from the twentieth century? And by the way, 304 00:15:07.559 --> 00:15:09.639 they didn't do this in the mobile world. What did 305 00:15:09.639 --> 00:15:14.279 they do? They didn't build fixed line telecommunication cables like 306 00:15:14.320 --> 00:15:18.559 we did. They went straight into satellite and mobile and 307 00:15:18.600 --> 00:15:21.039 they'll do the exact same thing in the electricity space, 308 00:15:21.480 --> 00:15:24.279 the exact same thing. You will move into a system 309 00:15:24.320 --> 00:15:27.720 that is based on solar whip batteries with other form storage, 310 00:15:28.039 --> 00:15:31.559 very clever power electronics in there, and guess what you 311 00:15:31.600 --> 00:15:35.039 add into that AI and the ability to learn in 312 00:15:35.080 --> 00:15:37.240 a completely different way than all of us in the 313 00:15:37.320 --> 00:15:40.080 room here have learned. That's how they leap frog, and 314 00:15:40.120 --> 00:15:42.840 they will leap frog it. Let me give you an example. 315 00:15:42.840 --> 00:15:47.120 What's going on in Pakistan. So Pakistan has very expensive 316 00:15:47.159 --> 00:15:50.759 power and the Pakistan Industry and Commerce Association about a 317 00:15:50.799 --> 00:15:53.240 year and a half complained to the government and said, 318 00:15:53.840 --> 00:15:56.840 you need to release the power of the market and 319 00:15:56.960 --> 00:16:00.320 let us bring in Chinese solar and batteries. And they said, 320 00:16:00.360 --> 00:16:02.279 the reason we do this is we can't compete with India. 321 00:16:03.120 --> 00:16:05.399 So what they did was they released got rid of 322 00:16:05.440 --> 00:16:08.360 all tariffs and then suddenly what ended up happening is 323 00:16:08.360 --> 00:16:11.639 they've had a boomer solar so much so that they 324 00:16:11.919 --> 00:16:14.919 think there's fifteen gigawa's a solar and this is in 325 00:16:14.960 --> 00:16:17.039 a market where there's thirty giga. What's the solar there 326 00:16:17.080 --> 00:16:21.080 is no subsidies in place, there was no financing in place. 327 00:16:21.519 --> 00:16:23.919 This is just businesses going we have to do this 328 00:16:24.000 --> 00:16:26.600 because it's how we stay in business. And again that 329 00:16:26.759 --> 00:16:28.559 just use that as an example. You will see this 330 00:16:28.799 --> 00:16:33.279 all across Africa. The exact same thing will happen South Africa, Nigeria, 331 00:16:33.360 --> 00:16:36.399 Tanzan eight. They will all go this route again because 332 00:16:36.399 --> 00:16:39.720 of economics. What I will say in this revolution is 333 00:16:39.759 --> 00:16:42.480 many global leaders will not survive. I'm sorry to saying 334 00:16:42.679 --> 00:16:45.679 as European, I put my hand up. I look at Volkswagen, 335 00:16:45.720 --> 00:16:47.840 I go sorry. You were the number one producer in 336 00:16:47.960 --> 00:16:51.519 China for the last fifteen years and you still have 337 00:16:51.639 --> 00:16:53.799 not been able to produce an electric cards as good 338 00:16:53.799 --> 00:16:56.320 as the Chinese. And by the way, you're slow at 339 00:16:56.320 --> 00:16:58.639 it and you're really expensive and you haven't actually gone 340 00:16:58.679 --> 00:16:59.759 restructured your business. 341 00:17:00.159 --> 00:17:00.799 Good luck to you. 342 00:17:01.320 --> 00:17:03.799 So the BYD here, if you prepare the two of them, 343 00:17:04.119 --> 00:17:07.799 Volkswagen software as systems, pretty dour go in the BYD 344 00:17:07.960 --> 00:17:11.200 everything works and it's cheaper, okay, And I mean it's 345 00:17:11.240 --> 00:17:13.559 cheaper in terms of their cost production. They're selling at 346 00:17:13.599 --> 00:17:16.160 the same price as Volkswagen, because prices of cars in 347 00:17:16.200 --> 00:17:18.519 Europe are more expensive. But the point I'm making all 348 00:17:18.519 --> 00:17:20.559 of it is you can see who's going to win 349 00:17:20.640 --> 00:17:23.359 going forward. Now, what I will also say is that 350 00:17:23.400 --> 00:17:26.359 they're going to be really positive surprises going forward. The 351 00:17:26.519 --> 00:17:30.000 really positive surprises should not be surprised to anyone in 352 00:17:30.039 --> 00:17:32.440 the room. If you realize that China has three point 353 00:17:32.559 --> 00:17:35.960 five million STEM graduates that come out every year, Germany 354 00:17:36.000 --> 00:17:39.039 has two hundred thousand, how can you compete with that? 355 00:17:39.079 --> 00:17:39.559 You can't. 356 00:17:40.039 --> 00:17:43.359 And they're really really well educated, they're really hard working, 357 00:17:43.680 --> 00:17:45.960 and they're eager to actually have the living standards that 358 00:17:46.000 --> 00:17:46.599 we want to have. 359 00:17:47.240 --> 00:17:49.160 What this is is great because what. 360 00:17:49.079 --> 00:17:51.960 This means is innovation speeds up, and there are things 361 00:17:52.039 --> 00:17:54.799 out there that we think about now that might happen 362 00:17:55.039 --> 00:17:58.079 or might not happen. I give you a very simple example. 363 00:17:58.079 --> 00:18:01.240 It's just super intelligence in terms of where you have 364 00:18:01.400 --> 00:18:05.720 literally human level intelligence from computers. That's a possibility. I'll 365 00:18:05.759 --> 00:18:08.319 say that to you now and again the reason is 366 00:18:08.319 --> 00:18:11.319 is because you've got so many great minds competing with 367 00:18:11.400 --> 00:18:11.880 each other. 368 00:18:11.759 --> 00:18:13.039 Across the world. 369 00:18:13.400 --> 00:18:15.799 What I want to say, though, is that this AI 370 00:18:15.880 --> 00:18:19.119 revolution is an opportunity and a threat. It's a threat 371 00:18:19.119 --> 00:18:21.880 if you do nothing and ignore it. And it's an 372 00:18:21.920 --> 00:18:25.799 opportunity if you jump on and actually understand and deal 373 00:18:25.880 --> 00:18:29.720 with it. So I talked to myself. Then what the 374 00:18:29.839 --> 00:18:32.200 issue in all of it though, makes it really complex 375 00:18:32.559 --> 00:18:34.960 is the geopolitical situation. I'm not going to win stop, 376 00:18:34.960 --> 00:18:38.440 but we know this, it's complex. Europe is, without a doubt, 377 00:18:38.559 --> 00:18:42.319 stuck in the middle between Russia China US. Not easy 378 00:18:42.599 --> 00:18:45.839 and again complicates everything. What I'm sort of leaving you 379 00:18:45.880 --> 00:18:48.960 with the message is what should you do? Right You're 380 00:18:49.000 --> 00:18:51.920 all executives companies across the world. 381 00:18:52.000 --> 00:18:52.799 What should you do? 382 00:18:53.599 --> 00:18:55.200 The first thing I'm going to say to is shift 383 00:18:55.240 --> 00:18:58.839 the mindset and see AI as an enabler, not a threat. 384 00:18:59.319 --> 00:19:01.799 If you see AI is a threat to your job, 385 00:19:02.039 --> 00:19:03.839 it is a threat to your job because it means 386 00:19:03.839 --> 00:19:06.279 you're not enabling it and you're not actually on top 387 00:19:06.319 --> 00:19:09.279 of it. And I do make this point about ais 388 00:19:09.640 --> 00:19:12.119 AI will not take your job, but a human being 389 00:19:12.119 --> 00:19:15.160 with AI will. So if you're not engaging with it, 390 00:19:15.200 --> 00:19:18.400 you've got a problem. And I will say, as a 391 00:19:18.440 --> 00:19:23.359 middle age white man, it enables my generation because it's 392 00:19:23.359 --> 00:19:27.119 the first technology that's really easy to use that actually 393 00:19:27.200 --> 00:19:29.319 enables me to compete with the twenty five year old 394 00:19:29.480 --> 00:19:31.039 is coming out of a skill set that I don't 395 00:19:31.039 --> 00:19:33.200 have now say that to everyone in the room. Very 396 00:19:33.319 --> 00:19:36.960 very important to realize that it's that simple to use. Okay, 397 00:19:37.160 --> 00:19:39.440 but we have to have it in our daily work. 398 00:19:40.119 --> 00:19:41.680 And I also want to make a point. It does 399 00:19:41.799 --> 00:19:44.680 mean that as our organizations have to have a growth mindset. 400 00:19:45.119 --> 00:19:48.000 A growth mindset is about learning, which is okay, you 401 00:19:48.000 --> 00:19:50.400