Speaker 1: You are alive, my friend.
Speaker 2: Welcome to Wager Talk Day, to the gold standard of
sports betting shows where we talked to talk would definitely
walk the walk. It is Wednesday, mid week, board is loaded.
Ralph Michaels has got two college football games. Are gonna
break down, get you an edge there. Teddy Covers is
gonna join in and break down some baseball games. We
got Blue Jays, Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers, and then we're gonna
do this line makes no sense. I'm gonna try and
convince Teddy that there's a line that is way off
in the NFL. It's It was a great five dollars
Tuesday for myself and for clients. If you guys joined
it on that play. First off, thank you very much.
In second, I hope you're enjoying the money. It was
a wild, wild night on Contender series, biggest bet of
my entire life last night. It was great. It was
a great, great night. So but we're gonna get started
with Ralph Michaels. We're gonna bring in Ralph here and
talk about some teams that Ralph. I'll just be honest,
I have not watched one second of some of these
teams here, but doesn't mean there's not an edge here.
So we're gonna get your started with Missouri State and
Middle Tennessee. How do you break this game down? It's
a two point spread for Missouri State over under fifty.
Tell me something about these teams, because I know nothing
about these guys, Andy.
Speaker 3: What's really exciting is from now to Thanksgiving, we basically
almost have football every day. Match can starts next Tuesday
and Wednesday. CUSA schedule these zerarly season games. So I
love October for football because, as you said, you know,
if there's an injury in Alabama Missouri, we all know
about it. If there's an injury in this game, and
we're gonna talk about it. Keeping me off Tonight's game
is something that you have to dig a little deeper for.
First off, it is Missouri State their first year in
the FBS heading to Middle Tennessee State. Oh yeah, By
the way, Middle Tennessee State has not won an FBS
game at home.
Speaker 4: Since November eighteenth, twenty twenty three.
Speaker 3: That's almost that's almost two seasons they have not won
an FBS game at home. You look at their stat profile,
Missouri is number one twelve in yards per play diff.
And I like looking at yards per play diff the
offensive minus the defense. Yes, minus one twelve is not good.
Number one twelve is not good. But they've played the
number sixty three schedule. Middle Tennessee State is actually number
one hundred and twenty four minus one point two to
three yards per play. Not only is that twelve spots
worse than Missouri State, but they've played a schedule that
is fifty eight spots lower. They've played one of the
weakest schedules. That's a big edge for me. When you
look at Middle Tennessee State on offense, they're number one
hundred and twenty one, averaging only three hundred and sixteen
yards per game, and they get sacked very often, allowing
eighteen sacks this season. I look at Middle and they
are coming off a home loss to Marshall where they
out gained as a favor by seventy six yards. They
went to Keenness State minus one turnover, had a yard
a jedge, but lost to a pitiful Knnessas State team
twenty four to sixteen, their only.
Speaker 4: Win on the season.
Speaker 3: They went out to Nevada beat the wolf Pack, but
they were outgained by seventeen yards. The only reason they
won that game by one point was because of a
wolf Pack turnover. Now Missouri State, this game likely would
have been a four percent play for me.
Speaker 5: Guys.
Speaker 4: That's how much I do like this.
Speaker 3: Going to USC and losing by sixty in the season opener,
no concern at all for me. In your first FBS
game that you're transitioning in. Going to Marshall in game
number two, pulling the upset was impressive. They lost by
eighteen against SMU at home, but they were only out
gained by one hundred and twenty yards.
Speaker 4: Not a bad loss. They blow out U. T.
Speaker 3: Martin like they should, forty two to ten, and then
last week against Western.
Speaker 4: Kentucky only fail to they failed.
Speaker 3: They lost that game by only five points, so statistical
profiles better. The situation is better because they've been home
for three straight games, but again, the only thing keeping
this from being a best bet is the quarterback injury. Now,
Jacob Clark is a stud. You look at his percentages
sixty seven percent this year.
Speaker 4: He looked like what was a horrible.
Speaker 3: Knee injury last week against Western Kentucky. That's part of
the reason they lost that game. He had his leg
in a brace. He was using crutches. He sat out
the second half. They said he was likely going to
be out, and they switched to day to day midweek.
But the problem is this, if Clark does not go,
then it's true freshman Deuce Bailey who played his first
game yesterday and then really struggled in that first game,
only seven to sixteen for forty four percent completions. With
that situation, it's a pass for me. But since I
can't load it as a play, I will tell you this.
If you tune in the TV tonight and you see
J Bob Clark is playing and starting the game, I
would jump on Missouri State. If not, it's a pass.
Speaker 2: All right. A great breakdown there, Ralph. And we're gonna
go to couple teams again I don't know that much about.
That's why we bring you in East Carolina versus Tulane.
And then after that we're gonna go over some trends
and some angles in the NFL. And this week's NFL
trended angles is gonna blow your guys' mind, because it
blew my mind here.
Speaker 1: All right.
Speaker 2: We got Tulane minus six and a half over under
fifty three and a half. How do you break this
game down?
Speaker 3: You know, I am an East Carolina fan this year,
and I look at what they've done. You know, beating
Army last week was impressive to me, one hundred and
forty one yard per game edge, And actually it wasn't
last week. They are coming off a bye. In fact,
they haven't played since two thursdays to go when they
beat Army. You look at the Pirates their losses this
year to BYU, there are minus two turnovers, only out
game by fourteen yards per game. At NC State they
lost by seven. They were only eight out game by
ten yards per game. This is a team I like.
The problem is Tulane has won twenty three of their
last twenty five conference games. They have a coach who
knows how to win, in John summer All in his
second season here. They're only loss a good loss at
Mississippi where they.
Speaker 4: Lost by thirty fo eve points.
Speaker 3: But I say a good loss because they've beaten those
teams they care about.
Speaker 4: They do have a strong home field.
Speaker 3: I do like the small stadium they playing out, and
we saw it against Duke when.
Speaker 4: They did allow four hundred and fifty two yards to
the Blue Devils, but.
Speaker 3: They won that game thirty four to twenty seven, and
Duke did have several penalties because of the noise in
that situation.
Speaker 4: Statistically, when I break it down, East.
Speaker 3: Carolina much better yards per play diff number forty two
versus eighty eight, but Toulane a much better schedule thirty
one versus eighty five. So when that occurs, you've got
to take a look at which you feel is stronger
based on the strength of schedule.
Speaker 4: But I like East Caroline in the situation.
Speaker 3: You have three wide receivers that all have between twenty
two and twenty eight catches. All three of those receivers
have between three hundred and three hundred and fifty two yards.
Speaker 4: They're all averaging over twelve and a half yards per carry.
I make this line three. This play may still make
it to my car tomorrow.
Speaker 3: I'm a Pirates fan Thursday night with East Carolina and
perhaps even an out right upset.
Speaker 2: All right, Ralph, now we're gonna go to the NFL
trends and listen. What's what what? What's one of the
biggest narratives now that we're in the week five and said, well,
team coming off a bye, they've got that extra rest,
extra week to prepare. Let's talk about buys because this
is gonna surprise everybody, so so watch out if you're
using oh, they're they're off of a buye on on
your on your NFL handicapping. Let's pull up this chart
and walk us through how many how many every reading
newsletters this week?
Speaker 3: Again, this is why it's so important to know the facts,
because it makes sense that they're going to benefit off
a bye because the NFL you start getting beat up
during the season.
Speaker 4: But take a look down that left hand column.
Speaker 3: If you blindly bet every NFL team off of bye
since twenty fifteen.
Speaker 4: You have gone forty nine percent. Wow, if they are
a home favorite the next.
Speaker 3: Week forty five percent, a home dog forty nine, and
away favorite forty eight point five. So the only situations
are if the team is an away dog off a bye,
and then I have on the right hand andy and
I will post this on my Twitter. This is what
they did the week before. So if you want to
look at how a team wanted home the week before bye,
lost at home a week four four or bye, won
away before they're by or lost away before a bye.
Speaker 4: But take a look at the away dogs. It doesn't matter.
Now these aren't wow.
Speaker 3: Numbers, but it's fifty five percent, so it needs to
be part of your handicappinger. And it doesn't matter the
previous game. If they won at home, lost at home,
won away, or lost away. It's basically consistent across the
board if they are off of if they are off
a home loss, that category, I do have a type
when they're my apologies. See the first category says home win.
The next one should be home loss, and I have
win loss in there. I'll correct that when I posted
chart to Twitter. But those are strong away favorites off
a home loss sixty four, away dogs off of home
loss sixty three. So I'm not telling you you cannot
play teams off a bye, but just make sure you
have a small negative check mark in there so you
are handicapping the game properly.
Speaker 1: All right?
Speaker 3: Uh?
Speaker 2: Do we know are there any teams in particularly off
the top of your heads that this really affects this week?
I'm trying to think.
Speaker 3: There were four teams off a bye, and let's see
if I could pull.
Speaker 2: Those up because dealers, bears, falcons, help me out, chat
which one am I missing, Steelers, Bears, Falcons, and there
was there was one other team, Teddy's. Teddy's in the
back room just just just screaming at us. Teddy's just screaming.
Speaker 1: Bay, thank you.
Speaker 4: I'm looking at Andy and I had a brave fart.
Andy had a bread fart. So thank you for finally jumping.
Speaker 5: In, Teddy.
Speaker 4: What the hell are you waiting for so long?
Speaker 2: Teddy? Teddy was like, you idiots, it's cream Bay. Okay.
So those are the four teams that were that we're
looking at for this week. The Steelers, the Path Okay,
all right, thank you very much, Teddy. Ralph, uh, It's
it's Wednesday. What do you have for clients?
Speaker 4: Well again, it's weekend Warrior week, guys.
Speaker 3: And I'll say this, I had a losing Saturday college football,
only my second of the week. I went one and
one Sunday lost my big play. I did have a
college football five percent loser last Friday. We always want
to mention the winners and the losers, but number two
in college football since the start of twenty twenty four,
college football run twenty seven and fourteen sixty six percent
college football and NFL best bets. Those are four percent
and five percent plays thirty seven and sixteen seventy percent.
I will have an NFL five percent, they are six
and one eighty six percent, and Andy my NFL teasers
rated four percent or five percent, sixteen and three eighty
four percent. The Weekend Warrior forty nine dollars. Get it now.
As soon as I load any college football plays for Saturday,
NFL plays for Sunday, and if I have a Monday
NFL play, you'll get that as well. You get him
immediately and get the lines that I bet the game's
at and want you to bet him at as well.
Speaker 2: Ralph Michaels, take advantage of the week and Warrior forty
nine dollars get you all those plays. Great run on
those teasers, Ralph, that's a that's a really strong run.
So make sure you're grabbing the Weekend Warrior for Ralph
Michael's over wager. Just talk. Thank you, Ralph, great stuff,
great breakdowns, great thanks.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 3: Teddy's like one of those guys that at the end
of the show we have to go through the blips
and errors that Teddy should be on each show, catching
everything and pointing those out to everyone. So let him
know that he should be on the show five days
a week, and just to be able to do that
for us, that would be we'd be very appreciative.
Speaker 4: Thanks, guys, have a great weekend.
Speaker 2: Thanks Ralph. Let's us bring in Teddy covers right now
and then we'll do All around the World Teddy. That
would Teddy, that would be amazing. If you had you
had to come on every day and correct all the mistakes,
it'd be like a fifteen minute segment. Well, Andy said this,
Ralphie's said this.
Speaker 1: They used to have the guy on Cornhyder and Wilbon
used to do that back in the.
Speaker 5: Day, right, Yeah, yeah, but then you'd have to listen
to the show. And I love being on the show.
But when I'm not on, I'm not you know, it's
a busy time. Once you get in October, you know, October, November, December,
it's a sports better.
Speaker 1: This is the busiest time of the year.
Speaker 5: So all the periphery stuff just kind of floats away
and then it's it's sports and sports betting pretty much
twenty four to seven, at least in my world this time.
Speaker 2: Yeah, my world too. We're starting to look at NBA
futures over unders props don't forget that is right around
the corner. So I know I've forgotten me either, me either.
I can't wait, can't wait to start talking NBA. So
we're gonna talk a little bit about the Blue Jays, Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers,
and then I'm gonna give you a an NFL line
that I think makes no sense. But let's start with
this Blue Jays Yankees. Yankees with the big comeback last
night and a R minus one forty five favorite. I
saw our friend Ariel Epstein had to do three shots
of tequila right in a row if the Yankees completed
the comeback, and she did it. She did it. Shout
out to her. She posted on social media three straight
shots of tequila. Well, what are we looking at for
this game today? Here we got Schlitler for New York,
Marlin for Toronto as the listed starters. How do you
break came down?
Speaker 5: Yeah, maybe the Blue Jay should have closed this one
out when they had the chance.
Speaker 1: You gave the Yankees.
Speaker 5: Life, and that's not always a good thing. Yankees have
done this before, you know, uh, they've overcome it to nothing.
Speaker 1: The deficit in.
Speaker 5: The best of five division series back in two thousand
and one. They made the World Series that year in
twenty seventeen as well, so the franchise has that history.
And you know, when you're trailing six to one early
and then you score eight unanswered run, you know, that's
their largest comeback ever in elimination game, tied to the
second biggest comeback in any game. And Toronto hadn't lost
all season after trailing after I stayed leading by four
runs or more, so, all of a sudden, it's uncharted
territory for the Blue days, the folks coming out of
the Yankees locker room or exactly.
Speaker 1: What you want.
Speaker 5: I've celebration there. Aaron Biom quote, another one tomorrow. I'll
enjoyed this for about ten minutes. I get ready for that.
Aaron Goud quote. Tonight was special And for Judge, it
really was a special game, you know, with the home
run that somehow or other state fair with a diving
catch in right field, with you know it was it
was a big game for Aaron Judge, who went now
seven for eleven in the series. For our yesterday quote,
tonight was special, but there's still more work to be done.
Hopefully we have some more cool moments like this the
rest of the postseason. We had another big game tomorrow night.
So certainly we've seen the Yankees bats. We've seen all
the bats in this series come alive. You know, the
series three and zero to the over so far, the
second round of the postseason seven and three to the
over in ten games. After the first round in the
wildcard matches, didn't get any runs, it was one under
after the next.
Speaker 1: It's been the.
Speaker 5: Opposite of that over the last of four days, and
I wouldn't be surprised we see more run scored tonight.
Speaker 1: You talked about and I really always Shoultay in his name.
You like him, I gonna say it right or not.
Speaker 5: Schlittler, you know who is coming off. You know I
backed him last time against Boston. I thought the Yankees
were going to win that game and win the series.
I did not expect what I got for Slipper though.
He was unbelievable in that ball game. Twelve strikeouts, no walks,
eight innings of shutout ball, but he also threw a
season high in pitches in that contest. Is definitely a
concern for me here. Toronto hit him hard. You know,
he lasted one to two thirds in a home game
against the Blue Jays, and this was in September.
Speaker 1: Four runs, five hit, seven month loss.
Speaker 5: They filed off the Blue Jays twenty four of Shitler's
sixty six pitches in that ball game quote it was
impressive how many foul balls that were. But I think
of a different pisuer now than I was when I
faced my month ago, and that even from two weeks ago.
That's a lot of confidence off the one start.
Speaker 1: The Blue Jays have been hitting. You know, they scored.
Speaker 5: They hit three ninety two, scored twenty three runs in
the first two game in Toronto. They scored here yesterday.
I know they only scored. He had two hits in
the final five innings. But this is a lineup that
is clicking right now. The wind blowing from left to
right out towards right field.
Speaker 1: That makes that short work in right very tempting.
Speaker 5: Slittler, I'm not expecting a start as good as his
last start. On the other side of the equation, we
got viralind who got hit yesterday by the Yankees. Lour
coming in as the backups the the bulk inting starter.
I'm expecting runs. It's been high scoring in the series.
It's been high scoring first five, it has been high scoring.
Full game, first five over four and a half, full
game over eight and a half. That's the way I
would look for this, and I think the first five
might be the.
Speaker 1: Stronger of the two. But no argument with anyone who's.
Speaker 5: Expecting runs in the Bronx in evening Action on Wednesday.
Speaker 2: Real quick, justin, I know, justin awesome, awesome guy, where's
near one forty five? Yeah, that line is no longer available.
That was the opening line. That's when we made the graphic.
Tons of money have come in on the Yankees, So yes,
you are correct. When we made the graphic, that's what
it was. But now, I mean, I'm seeing minus one
sixty five, minus one seventy five, So yes, justin minus
one forty five open. It's not there anymore. But we
like the over so we're not even gonna mess with
the money line on that one.
Speaker 5: And just to jump in real quick, because I don't
even know where it opened minus one forty five.
Speaker 1: I didn't. I didn't see that number.
Speaker 5: Okay, it may have been out there somewhere, but right now,
look at the os logic live on screen, it's minus
one sixty five anywhere up to minus one eighty depending
on where you shop. Total pretty much across the board,
sitting at eight and a half right now that Osologic
live on screen.
Speaker 1: Get your free trial, guys.
Speaker 5: It's free seven day free all access for a live
odds service.
Speaker 1: If you've never used one, it's cool, do it today again.
Speaker 5: Dot combats by Petty gets a free seven day all
after check.
Speaker 2: That's seven and a half totally. I talked with Brian
Power yesterday about that seven and a half total and
Yanks and Blue Jedals like, what are we doing here?
Speaker 1: Why?
Speaker 2: Why did ever never mind Phillies Dodgers. Here we got
Nola going for Philly, Yamamoto going for the Dodgers. The
Dodgers is a big favorite here. How do you break
this game down?
Speaker 5: So again, looking at the odds logic live on screen
right now, I'm seeing the Dodgers in the minus one
seventy five range total seven and a half juice to
the over. And you know in a second round we've
seen a bunch of overs. You know, well, we didn't
get there with these two teams last time a four
to three final. The Dodgers bullpen tried to blow it
in the ninth inning but didn't quite get there. They'll
probably try again tonight, you know. Rob Thompson, Phillies manager quote,
I love the fight in the eighth and ninth inning.
They fought like hell and hopefully that carries over in
a Wednesday. This is a resilient group. Our backs are
against the wall. We've just got to come out fighting
and I think Philadelphia will be able to do that. Look,
teams that are up to nothing in the best of
five postseason series are eighty and ten, So ten times
he'ms a comeback. There have been fifty four sweeps out
of those ninety tries, so we've seen, you know, a
five and a half to one ratio of sweeps versus comebacks.
That being said, Philadelphia is certainly you know going into
the series. At least in my mind, the winner of
this series is the team to back to win it
all and that hasn't changed through the first two games.
And if Philadelphia does come back against LA I think
they will be the team to beat moving forward. So
we got Nola going for Philadelphia. I don't trust Nola.
You don't trust Nola. He's pitched better of late. He
does not have a great tracker against the Dodgers. He's
not got a great track record down the stretch, but
they have a ranger.
Speaker 1: Suarez to back them up.
Speaker 5: So if Nola gets into trouble, I would expect to
see Suarez fairly early four of Philadelphia. And of course,
if Nola pitches a gem, which you know he's a veteran,
he's more than cable dowing. He's done in the postseason
many times before. Even if it looks like Max Monts,
He's going to get his first start of the series.
We could see Will Smith in this ball game as
well for La. Not sure about that yet, but even
against the Dodgers, if Nola's dealing, they'll be dealing. That
being said, you know, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, ice cold.
What a fourteen with eight strikeout so far in this series.
You know Harper's quote, it's kind of weird and crazy
to see there's only been one homer hitting the first
two games. Pitching has been good on both sides. I
think there's maybe two guys that have kind of played
well on both sides. So Philadelphia knows they have a
better game in them. They certainly, you know, we talk
about Yamamoto has been ACE level, you know, all year long.
That being said, ace level all year long, and then
ace level against Philadelphia in the postseason with the pressure
and the bullpen issues behind him, That to me.
Speaker 1: Is something con sir for La in the pitching tonight.
Speaker 5: I like thee the Phillies team total over in this ballgain.
Three and a half is the number of the prevailing number,
and you get that even at a plus price plus
one oh five I'm seeing available right now. I'm Philadelphia
team total over. I understand that they haven't hit as
well as expected so far in this series, but I
think the change of location the day off can only
help a very potent lineup against a pitching staff that
has seen a few cracks. So we like over in
both games. Full game for Yankees, Blue Jays, the Dodgers,
and Phillies. We like Phillies team total over three and
a half.
Speaker 2: I love it. I was so jealous that Tokyo Brandon
came up with taking the Reds team total over against
the Dodgers in those guy, I was so jealous that
he came up with that one, And now you're doing
the same thing Phillies Dodgers makes all the sense in
the world. And yes, it's generous saying they have a
few cracks in their pitching staff.
Speaker 1: Teddy, Well, it's worth noting that.
Speaker 5: You know, we've seen Dave Roberts avoid the bullpen entirely
and just go back to his you know, because they
have so many starters.
Speaker 1: You know, could we see Glass Noow again in this ballgame? Wait?
Speaker 5: You know, I don't think we'll see Sasaki tonight. They've
been really doing their best to keep so Soccer from
pitching him back to back games. He's a guy that
they've got a lot of money tied into and a
lot of hopes for the future tied into. So there's
definitely a possibility in this game for late game shenanigans
with the doctors going without likely going without their Erstwhile closer.
Speaker 2: Shout out to Rob, he says, sorry, I'm late. Could
we start the show over? I love Rob? I love Rob.
Go back and watch from the very beginning, Rob. Oh,
that's great, that's great, Teddy, I'm gonna do this line
makes no sense. But before do that, tell everyone what
you have up for clients that we did you're talking so.
Speaker 5: Right now you have a single best bet available in
MLB for today early start game, so if you want
some aster new in action, the MLB has been really good.
Fifteen and four are dating back to last year seventy
nine percent plus thirty point four units this season an
MLB players some five and one eighty three percent making
money and sometimes the games are jumping at me. And
that's real nice to see in October you don't always expected.
So the baseball has been good. Get it right now
nine bucks on my page WT Buzz Backslash TC. I'm
writing a twenty five and thirteen All sports run sixty
five percent over the last two and a half weeks,
and I'm writing a fifteen and eight football heater that's
NFL and college combined College ten and three seventy seven
percent over the last I think it's three Saturdays. So
making money in football, making money in baseball. I cannot
complain too much, but you know, Andy, we'll find a way.
Speaker 2: I had my very first ever prop bet that was
voided because of an injury on Monday night. We had
Breton Strange, the tight end. He catches one pass in
the first quarter, gets hurt and they avoid the bet.
Was the first time it's ever happened to me. This
is the DraftKings and ESPN, Bet and Bett where they
decide to randomly void player prop bets if there's an
injury in the first half of the first quarter. What
a world? What an age we live in? Teddy Sportsbook's
randomly voiding bets because of injuries.
Speaker 1: Note that that's happening in a scenario where they don't
have a lot of liability.
Speaker 2: You know, yes, absolutely, it's.
Speaker 5: Gonna be a scenario where they get a nice pr
move and it doesn't cost them a lot of money,
and that's what they'll do.
Speaker 2: This was that, yes, Brenton strange props. Sure they didn't
have a whole lot on that one, So all right,
we're gonna do This line makes no sense that I
got a lifestyle question here for you, Teddy. All right,
this line makes no sense. Rams minus seven and a
half against the Ravens. My opinion, the Ravens are absolutely
punting on these games before the bye week. Lamar Jackson's
not playing. Seven defenders are out, so what are they
gonna do. They're gonna rest their guys this week, then
they have the bye. They come out of the buy
one and five. They think their season's over. Not so fast,
my friend. They have Bears, Dolphins, Vikings, Brown Jets, Bengals, Steelers, Bengals,
Patriots after their bye week. That's where they make their run.
Rams get extra rest from the Thursday game. They're coming
off an embarrassing loss to a rival, and the Ravens
have allowed six point one yards per play and a
league worst thirty nine point seven points per game the
last three games. Teddy, they don't have a defense. The
Ravens have lost their last two games by seventeen and
thirty four. This line makes no sense. The Rams should
be ten and a half point favorites. I think the
Rams blow out the Ravens in a game. I think
they're throwing away.
Speaker 5: You agree or disagree, so well, I'm supposed to disagree
with you, right, I can make an argue.
Speaker 2: You can do whatever. I'm just saying. This line makes
no sense. I will be using Rams and Survivor Rams everything.
I use Texans and Survivor Rams crush the Ravens.
Speaker 5: So there are a couple of key factors to consider
before you load up all your bankroll on the Rams
in this bogain, all right, you had off Michael's on
talking about the teams coming out of the buy and
the team's coming out of the buy.
Speaker 1: There's nothing there, all right.
Speaker 5: Everyone goes, oh, they're coming off a buy, they're coming
off of BUYE and obviously coming bye from a points
rap perspective is actually a slight negative, you know, going
into the buy that's where the positives are. And if
you follow Ralph on Twitter as you if you don't, don't,
you got to follow Ralph on Twitter at cal Sports
LB on Twitter. He's just a great follow and he,
you know, tweets out all these charts, even stuff you
don't see on the shows. But if you know that,
he put out a chart with the teams before the
BUYE and the teams before in all the different categories,
teams before the buy positive expectation sixty percent sixty plus percent.
That's your spot is not after the BUYE. It's before
the BUYE. Factor number two, all right, So you want
teams like Baltimore going into the bye week. Plus you know,
as a dog in general factor number two, how confident
are you? And you're Baltimore Raven's power rating right now,
this team is still favored to win the AFC North. Okay,
they're still the favorites in the division. Okay, how confident
are you that you're powerting on Baltimore is spot on?
Speaker 1: Because I'm not.
Speaker 5: You know, my number for the game came five and
a half, and I'm like, I guess I'm not downgrading
the Ring now, you know, I guess I'm not. You know,
the markets have downgraded them, what ten, twelve, fourteen points
since the start of the season, and I've only downgraded
them eight or ten points. It's, you know, from where
they were. I think maybe nine nine and a half
points from where they were. But I'm not confident in
my number. You're not confident in your number. Anyone that says, oh,
I know I got the Ravens pegged, I know exactly
what the you know?
Speaker 1: You know so?
Speaker 5: And then factor number three, We're gonna keep making paid
cases for the for the dog here. How good are
the Rams exactly? You know, not like they're killing teams.
I like the Rams are blowing everybody out of the
water every week. That's not how they play. That's not
how this season's gone for them. It's not you got
a West Coast team traveling the East for an early
Star game. You know, uh, they win this game by
a touchdown. They're just plenty happy. So there's case in
many for Baltimore here, maybe some good ones. Line's not
high or not, line's too high?
Speaker 1: You know?
Speaker 2: Oh man you Oh I watched. I watched what the
Texans did to this Baltimore team, and I don't think
Houston's that good.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 2: They just laid a whooping on Baltimore. So all right,
we shall see, we shall see. I did pretty decent
on this segment last week with with with with my
Broncos pick. So all right, so we were talking before the show.
Do not do this, guys, but do not recommend this, Teddy.
Have you ever gone all in on a bet? I
talked about this, Okay, one time.
Speaker 4: I did it.
Speaker 2: Last night. We got tired. We got a lot of time.
Tell the story of about your all in bed. I
think I've heard you tell this story before. I don't
remember what happened.
Speaker 1: So it was the year I cashed in the Hilton Con.
Speaker 5: I was a top ten finisher in the super contest
in I think it was nineteen ninety nine and two
thousand comes and I freaking can't pick a winner, you
know how it is? Oh, last year was great this year,
isn't you know? And I had back to back terrible weeks.
I wasn't an established capper then, I was just starting out.
I didn't have a bank roll that could withstand a
whole lot, and.
Speaker 1: I got clobbered back to back week.
Speaker 5: It was a Monday night game with it's got to
be Cordell Stewart against Chris Chandler with the Steelers and
the Falcons, right, yeah, yeah, And this is Atlanta coming
off a Super Bowl appearance the previous year, and.
Speaker 1: They had an awful start to the season.
Speaker 5: Pittsburgh was laying the four and a half, five and
a half, six and a half, and I took every
dollar I had time and I played Atlanta plus the points.
Speaker 1: I had Atlanta on the money line, and I.
Speaker 5: Played more Atlanta plus the point because I found a
plus seven and I literally that was my all end moments.
Speaker 1: And the Falcon trailed fine margin the whole game and
the fourth quarter of the rally back. I actually had
first and goal from the three to win the game.
Speaker 5: They didn't win the game straight up, they weren't able
to convert, but they covered the number. Uh So I
won the majority of my bets and that kept me
alive and then the rest of it.
Speaker 1: But yeah, that was early on in my career. Where
if I lose that game, I don't know what happened,
probably never heard it.
Speaker 2: Do Do you remember what you felt like like leading
up to the game, Like.
Speaker 5: I remember what I felt like when they were down
fourteen to nothing in the first and you know, or early.
Speaker 1: And I was pretty you know, but.
Speaker 5: You know that feeling when it's bad, but it's just
so bad you can't really process it, you know what
I'm talking about. I'm sure you guys out there, no
one I'm talking about. It was that, you know, that
was It was like all right, you know, let's yeah,
it was pretty bad.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, that was that was me. Last night there
was a fight on Contender series. I don't know if
you heard me tell there was a fighter. I've never
done tape study on a fighter this bad in my
entire career. I've never seen a fighter this awful. And
we just we went all in on everything. Fight doesn't
go the distance under one and a half, fight ends
in round one, it's loop Fernandez by knockout. Every possible
play you could possibly think of, we would I had
my entire bankroll, and then I added more money on
top of the bank right. I told people, I was like,
I literally had like five hundred percent of my bank
roll on there. And it was it was incredibly terrifying.
It was nerve wracking. But and then the fight lasted
one punch our guy, our guy hit our guy, hit
the guy one time, and the fight was over. It
lasted twelve seconds, but it could have been eight because
the ref was late to stop it. But I do
not recommend that it was great for one night. I
don't ever want to do that ever, ever again.
Speaker 5: So I remember making a really as big a bet
as I've ever made. I bet against Mark Mulder. I
think it might have been his last career start. He
was starting for the Cardinals who were playing the Rays.
The Rays were red hot and the Cardinals were favored,
and I'm like, this is this is the dumbest line
I've ever seen, you know, and I, you know, bad,
that's one of these dude games of the years and
this is my game of the year. And I loaded
up and that was you know, it was like eight
to one Tampa in the second inning.
Speaker 1: It was that kind of a scenario.
Speaker 5: It was easy, you know, you like it when here
you're the handicap is right, molded, was you know what
he was done? I think it was moulder, but yeah,
that was Those are nice when they come when when
you handicap it right and it comes through.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 5: There was another early one that I had when it
was Steve Spurrier with the Washington Redskins at the time.
He was going to Tokyo for a preseason opener against
Mariucci in the forty nine. It's a preseason game and
Spurrier is like, we're going to win and mary Ucci's like, uh, yeah,
we got a tour of Osaka, you know. And San
Franz was laying three at the open all right, you know,
and I'm like, this is the dumbest line I've ever seen.
It closed Washington plus minus three, and they won the game.
I think it was thirty eight to seven. I mean
it wasn't it was. It was over well before halftime.
And that was another one that was like I loaded
up and it felt great and it worked right, and
you know, so it's nice when they come through like that.
Any nice call, good handicap, easy cash, well done.
Speaker 1: Those are the best.
Speaker 2: There are there are. It was a great feeling, and
Rob asked, how many times did you throw up watching
your all in bet? I didn't over under two and
a half cash the under on throwing up. But it's
it's it's a nerve wracking feeling, and I do not recommend.
Speaker 1: It for Tessie best just thirteen to nine or something
like that. Yeah, it was an ugly only game.
Speaker 2: Tessie went and pulled up the game.
Speaker 5: Yeah at nine matter, Yeah, because it was it was
like stick and a half. Uh, it was closing number
around town. Uh and seven I found I found a
seven or something. But yeah, yes, that was what a
fun day.
Speaker 2: What amazing day. Teddy covers, Teddy, first, thank you for.
Speaker 1: Those are all the last thing I'm gonna say.
Speaker 5: Sorry, I don't mean to cut you off any but
the key is those are all at least both the
early career stuff when your bank roll is not where
it needs to be, you know, ends and you haven't
learned some of.
Speaker 1: The lessons that you learned later on.
Speaker 5: But that being said, when your bank roll is what
it's supposed to be so you can step up and
have a big size wager, you know, you're just not betting.
Speaker 1: All of it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, absolutely, Teddy Covers love the story. Thank you
very much. Can't wait to see you on Friday for
Football Friday. Cheers uh Teddy Covers everyone. So yeah, yeah,
it was. It was a wild night. We cashed our
five dollars Tuesday play said we were going to and
now we move on to our five percent play in
UFC on Saturday. It's not an all in play. This
is a very confident play that we've already bet. We
hit our five percent play on Saturday. We hit our
five dollars Tuesday play and Contender series last night. We're
gonna hit our five percent play in UFC. If you
haven't gotten that, go grab that play. Absolutely love it.
The line is moving a little bit, but it's still
available and still still a five percent worthy play. So
that is over at wt dot Buzz slash Ah. That's
our big play for the weekend. Justin what would you
have done if if you've lost, you just start over?
That was that was the mindset. I talked to jim
you guys know jim My one of my betting partners.
He's on my team, and we were just like, if
it loses, we start over from scratch. That's it. So
that was the mindset. But again, I don't ever want
to be in that position ever again. But boy, if
they put a fighter like that up, we may we
may be in there. All right, big, let's pull up
all around the world. Let's get some free plays. And yes,
the ring girl yesterday that if you watch yesterday, the
ring goal yesterday was the ring goal for the guy
that loss. So all right, here we go. Warren Fogel
over one and a half shots on goal and the
Kings and the Golden Knights. He didn't have any shots
on goal last night, but he had two shots that
just missed. He's hit this in sixty nine percent of
his games last year, and he's gone over this in
the last four games that he's played against Golden Knights.
We'll take warm Fogel over one and a half shots
on goal. I'm saying a lot of people on UTEP
on the money line, Liberty are won in four ats
and straight up, Liberty lost all their games against FBS
teams by double digits and they've only scored fifty seven
points total. UTEP pretty good defense, especially on third and
fourth down. Liberty defense is bad, allowing five point five
yards per carry. I believe I read Brian Power say
that no team has been lowered in his power rankings
more than Liberty, So Liberty is a fate at this point.
And the Cubs and Brewers Tokyo brand. He's got a
team total. He's been fantastic on these team totals, Cubs
over one and a half in the first five. The
Cubs hitters have had success against Priest. He's given up
over one and a half runs in his last four starts.
Cubs have put up ten earned runs against him in
the season in three starts. So those are your free
plays for tonight. We made a really nice I'm so
excited Hockey's back this war, and Fog is going to
be a client play. We hit Carter for Hagy to
have a point. Yesterday, I think I hit over sixty
one percent of NHL props. So we're gonna start talking
a lot about NHL props on this show. If you're
not betting NHL props, you're doing yourself a disservice. You
can hit an incredibly high percentage on NHL props. These
lines are soft and the books do not adjust, so
we'll start talking a lot about NHL props. That's going
to do it for us today. Thank you so much
for joining us. Hit the like button, leave us a comment,
tell us if you had an all in moment that
you're not that proud of in the comment section below,
and I wanted to shout out somebody in the chat,
who oh hey, Chris, can we pull up that comment?
We have a sorry, we have a bet with Jesse
Jesse Schule, do you have that? We know we'll save
it for tomorrow. Okay, somebody posted a fantastic comment that
me and Jesse can have a bet on the game
on the Georgia Tech game this weekend. We'll show that tomorrow,
but Jesse has agreed to it where each of us
has a punishment if the other one loses. So we'll
pull that up tomorrow. So fantastic in the comment section,
and somebody gave me sent me a very very nice
message asking about the Dion Sanders poster that I had
in the background. It's right over there. It's you can
kind of see the corner of it. But I just
wanted to say thank you. That was such a cool
moment and a really really nice conversation that I had
with that gentleman. So I appreciate that and that is
in the comment section, so leave us a comment below.
Thanks very much for joining us. We're going to do
it again tomorrow. And don't forget football Fridays, guys. Friday
our biggest show of the week. We break down NFL
NC double A, Marco's Wings, Sauce, Teddy and I do
Sell Me, we talk Survivor, we talk about the Super Contest.
It's a huge, huge Friday, so make sure you're watching
on Fridays. It's the best football show of the week
by far, outside of Opening Line Report, which Teddy does
on Monday. All right, thanks for joining us, good luck
and all your plays. Well, see everyone tomorrow. Take care.