Speaker 1: Welcome to Fantasy Hockey Life, presented by fan Tracks.
Speaker 2: Here shit us here.
Speaker 1: Your source of information and analysis to help you win
your fantasy hockey league.
Speaker 2: Block Off has a step hit on staylock.
Speaker 1: Here's your hosts, Jesse Severe and Victor Nuno.
Speaker 2: Fantasy Hockey Live back once again. Jesse Severe Fan Tracks.
That is Victor new Yo of ep Rinkside. Victor, how
you doing.
Speaker 3: I'm doing great, Jesse. It's been a long time since
you and I have actually been able to record together,
so it's nice to be back in the co pilot's
seat here with you.
Speaker 1: How you doing, my friend, I'm doing good.
Speaker 2: Yeah. If you were listening People of Earth last week
to our episode, that was an entirely AI generated intro,
and I copped to it, I referenced it. But I'm
telling you we have the technology now. I literally typed
those words and Victor and I said them, even my
part was not me recording live. So these things can
be done people, And I don't know why I keep
talking about it. From now on, you won't even know
if this is us on the episode. We could we
could disappear entirely. People could still keep putting these things
out with just our voices.
Speaker 3: Victor, Yeah, and it was really funny because I was
traveling when you did that, and you said that you
were going to do it, and I was like, oh,
hah okay, and then I listened to it and it
was even funnier than I could have ever imagined.
Speaker 2: Ah, thank you. We had a good time. Oh shoot,
the mirth runneth over. And you can experience it yourself
in the discord. In fact, don't just experience bring it yourself,
come be a part of it. There are people talking
fantasy hockey in there, and we want to make that
a space that everybody can come on in and chat
fantasy hockey. It's free. We just that's how discords work.
They can be free. You just set them up and
tell people they can come in and as long as
they behave themselves, they can stay. So all you need
to do to get in is hit Victor and myself
up Fantasy Hockeylife at gmail dot com, or hit either
of us up on x at fanhockey Life at Victor,
New Yo twelve. And that's where you can just get
the link, the little link we'll connect you into the Discord.
But Victor, there are other things of which you wish
two of which I did that poorly grammatically, Victor. There
are things you want to talk about, go ahead.
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's some great stuff over on the Patreon if
you want some extra content. One of the coolest things.
You can play in our Tier Dynasty, our Tidy League,
which could use some gms. So there are a couple
I think there's one, maybe two spots open, So if
you want to get in on that, you can join that.
You need to be a patron. It's a patron perk
we talk about on the show. There's also we're going
to do a big update to my prospect ranks and
tiers and player cards that Brandon and I are working on,
going to come out at the end of November, so
you can get in on that and see all the
cool stuff that goes along with that, and so that's
one thing you can do. You can also get patroon
casts which are going to be recording soon here, and
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do that over at patreon dot com slash fantasy hockey life.
Speaker 1: Very good.
Speaker 2: All right, we're taking a break. We're going to come
back and talk some fantasy hockey. Today's episode we are
going to be doing some more X gamers. Victory has
been writing like a fiend over there at EP ring
Side and looking deeply, diving deeply into some players who
are hitting certain levels in their NHL careers, and today
we're going to discuss a few of them on the show,
starting with Jonathan Bergren of the Detroit Red Wings. Victor,
I will introduce a couple background things on Old Johnny.
He's gonna be the oldest of the four players we
touch on today. Last year he played mostly in the AHL.
He had a point per game. He was drafted back
in twenty eighteen. This year he's been in the NHL
all season, not scoring all that much. He's about to
pass one hundred career NHL games played, and he skates
more than thirteen minutes a night, so it's not like
he doesn't get a chance at all out there, and
he has minimal bash. But his defense is rated reasonably
by advanced metrics. But you did the deep die, Victor,
can you summarize what your perceptions are of Bergran's game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, for sure.
Speaker 3: And a lot of the local people call him Johnny
Bergers since his name sounds similar to that, and Bergren
might be a little harder to say, but yeah, he's
I think he's a little bit of a miss cast player.
He's an offensive winger that I think initially in his
career there were certainly a lot more questions about his
defensive game, and I think it was a bit weaker.
But I think now he's really come a long way
and I don't really think that's a weakness so much
at all. And I think if you look at his
underlying metrics, which I do have in the article from
Evolving Hockey in some other places, he's actually quite good defensively,
not even as some of the metrics show him as average,
some of them show him as as actually quite good.
And right now in Evolving Hockey, as expectacles against for
sixty is actually quite quite good, up in the sixtieth percentile,
sixty seventy percentile, So that's really good.
Speaker 1: And there's a really.
Speaker 3: Cool chart on here from Hockey Viz which I really love,
which is which Micah Blake mccurty calls a synthetic goal,
and he blends a lot of different metrics into that,
even strength, power play shorthanded, all these different aspects that
are taken into account and show whether all of those
things together grate this player as positive or negative or neutral.
And he's actually above average in that synthetic goals metric,
and I think that says a lot. I think maybe
one of the issues is that for an offensive winger
whose defense is pretty average or a little bit above average,
you'd want maybe a little bit more offense for him,
and the expected goals in offensive production and creation hasn't
quite been there. You referenced his opportunity, which I would
definitely say that is still not ideal for someone that
you want to get more out of. Yeah, thirteen minutes
with one on the power play most of that second
unit time. And I think overall this whole year, the
Red Wings have been underperforming. I believe they just lost
to all three California teams, which back in the day
that used to be a somewhat regular occurrence when they
were all good, but they are not right now. At
least the Kings are decent, but the other two or not.
And I think they're just struggling to their game in general,
and I think he's a bit of a victim to that.
But sometimes you can scapegoat the guys that aren't the
top end producers a little bit easier. And it is
I think, really important to know that he's an RFA
this summer, and I think he signed that proved year,
that proved deal last summer eight hundred and twenty five thousand,
just above the minimum, and it hasn't really gone super
well for him. But I don't think that all of
it is his shot. I think that he's someone who
could really benefit.
Speaker 1: From a change in scenery.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 3: Sometimes it's just hard when you grow up in a
certain system and there's some expectations or potentially hurt feelings,
missed opportunities. Who knows all of those things. But I
do think that he can produce. I'm just not sure
that he's going to have the opportunity in Detroit, and
a couple of the people I talked to regarding him
on this article were skeptical of that. What kind of
points upside he could be. It seems pretty clear he
could be a bottom six guy, but he has the
talent to be a middle six or more if he
has the right opportunity, which I'm just not sure he's
going to get in Detroit, Jesse.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's interesting that SG metric of Michael Blake mccurties
is showing him with positive offense. As of the time
we're recording this, he's got three points in eighteen games.
So if you're looking at the service numbers, they're rough.
There's certainly not something that's going to stand out. So
if indeed there are these really nice underlying metrics, this
could present a wonderful buying opportunity. I don't see why
these numbers make him look like he should almost be
free in a lot of fantasy leagues, So if there's
underlying value here, it might be the chance to get
in on that while the dipping is low. He's been
playing primarily with Marco Casper and vlad Tarashenko this year,
who are not No, they're not slouches. Tarashenko's not what
he used to be, certainly, and Casper's also not all
that established, but at least there's some positives to be said.
I will say that his two goals came in his
just his last few games, so he's warming up a
little bit over a fairly slow start. Mason Black, the
NHL ranking who we like to engage to find out
what the masses think comparing different players, put out a
poll of Isaac Howard versus Jonathan Bergran. And Isaac Howard,
of course, was the first round pick in twenty twenty
two by the Tampa Bay Lightning. He's been playing at
Michigan State at about a point per game pace. As
we said, Bergran has been in the NHL a bit more,
but also was about a point per game in the
AHL last year when he was there and it was
dead even at last check. Victor Howard and Bergeran is
a Dane coin flip? Is that how you would rank
these two?
Speaker 3: I think it's a really interesting comparing these two right
because Bergran has had quite a few NHL games already,
as you referenced, so he's about the eclipse one hundred
by the time you're hearing this. He might have done
that already because they're playing tonight as we're recording this.
Speaker 1: So he's there.
Speaker 3: Doesn't mean that he's done or cooked or anything, but
sometimes that's when you need to make a decision on
these players. I really like Bergeran. You reference to Bilo.
I think in a deep enough league, I would do
that because I think there's a pretty good chance he's
not a red wing next season, and I think he
could go to a different team and flourish. But at
the same time, if it's a relatively shallow league without
too many prospects, or you need to make a decision
like a twelve or fourteen team, or he's probably not
going to be able to return that much on investment,
But in a thirty two team, I think he's definitely
worth buying low. On the other hand, Isaac Coward, he
is someone that we're still waiting for, so we have
no NHL data on him, and I think that's always
interesting when you're we talk about the funnel and you're
farther away from being able to show what you can do.
And so I would rather have Howard at this point
because he at least hasn't shown that he has struggled
to adapt to the NHL, whereas I think you could
probably say that about Bergeran at least, whether it's his
fault or whether it's the opportunity he's been geting, and
whatever the case may be, it hasn't quite gone smoothly.
For him, and we don't know with Howard and with
the Lightning. We've seen a couple guys Geeky is fitting
in Okay, We've seen Hagel come in and fit into
that group. Holo he was a little bit more established.
But we've seen some players get good opportunity and produce,
and I think that Howard could do that. He's in
his third season of college right now. Last season he
was a point per game at Michigan State after transferring
from University of Minnesota Duluth, which was seemed like a
good idea for him, and this season he's over a
point per game at Michigan State. I think that he's
someone that I would rather have. The trend is more
upward for him, and I think that his opportunity, which
is what Bergran really needs, is already there with Tampa,
though you never know, he could get traded. If he
gets traded to Carolina or something, then he'll be like
the twelfth best prospect on that pool. Probably not but exaggerating.
So yeah, I think I would rather have Howard because
just he's not as far down the funnel and there's
still some pretty significant upside there. In fact, I think
the upside is even still higher with Howard, so I
would take him.
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's four years younger, and at this point Berger
in his twenty four presumably there is not a through
the roof type outcome coming for this guy. He's already
got one hundred games, and we probably have a sense
that he could kick it up to another level. I
was looking, I'm throwing this off the dome here, Victor,
trying to figure out the type of fantasy player that
you see. Because the one thing is, like I said,
right now, at thirteen minutes a game, he's getting about it.
He's got about a shot in half for his career,
but well under about half a hit a little over
half a block in that timeframe. So he's not going
to stack up your peripheral stats, even though he's got
some kind of defensive reputation. I look at the guy
who jumped into my mind as having kind of the
slow start to his career. Is maybe the best case
scenario was Frank Vitronto except that Buttronto has got bashed
like crazy. But in terms of that scoring profile, partial
seasons with under half point per game for a few
years and then finally I don't know seven years into
his career, eight years into his career, he turned it
on and had that career year last year in Anaheim.
That's to me like that would be the that would
be almost a miraculous outcome for Bergrand. He hangs around
a long time and then he has one or two
big years where he gets over half a point per
game from I just am I hallucinating Victor. What do
you think? What kind of fantasy player is this guy
going to be? I guess is the point.
Speaker 3: I think he's actually a really creative and smart player.
His IQ is really there. He can make a lot
of plays. I think one of the problems that Detroit
has in general is they have a lot of guys
like him, some that are even a little bit better,
Like I think he's actually like a just slightly worse
version of Lucas Raymond to some extent, I think Raymond
has a better shot, but they have a few guys
that can do that. What they don't have is some
really elite finishers. You don't have the Kawfield or an
Ovechkin or a Koutrov or guys like the Chris Kreider
that can really hammer those chances home. And I think
that's hurting everyone, and they have a little bit too
much of duplication of a similar product, and so I
think that's another reason him going somewhere else could really
be good for everyone. And I do think that he
might be the kind of guy that just fledges around
for a little bit until he gets more of an opportunity,
and then maybe he could spike up a little bit.
But I still don't think his spike is going to
be too high. Maybe he hit seventy points one day,
but I doubt it. I think he's probably more of
a fifty to sixty point guy unless he gets the
perfect opportunity.
Speaker 2: Yeah, fifty to sixty not a ton of bash that
that seems seems that's especially in a thirty two team
league like you're talking about that that's very much worthwhile,
but probably not a guy who you are anticipating is
going to blow up your team and leads you to
a championship. He's part of this complete breakfast. He's not
that he of the centerpiecet. Next, let's talk about Joshuah
Dog Gone a victory. He'd better be Wah, don't tell
me this is another roy because he's from Quebec. This
is a wah as far as I'm concerned. He's a
defensive forward who came from the queue. What kind of
world am I living? This place is upside down, topsy turvy,
cats and dogs living together. You pulled a great pro
wowie chart in your article. Basically every player he plays
with in the NHL he was better without them than
they were without him, both in offense and defense. He
came out higher than them in terms of the Montreal
Canadiens who was with last year. That's good. He already
shows that he's got some positive characteristics that he's shown
in the pros. He had nine points in twenty three
games last season, with quite nice bash in that time.
But he's back in Laval where he is up to
a point per game. Earlier this month, he notched a
hat trick against Brandon Boozy of the Providence Bruins, so
he's got that going for him. Victor Joshua of the
Montreal Canadians, right winger, if I didn't mention former fifth
round pick in twenty twenty one, what is your perception
of this guy?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 3: I think very few players have had the sort of
meteoric rise that he has had from a fifth round pick.
I think that it's been really it's been really fun
to watch because he was so drafted so late, and
a big part of that is because of his foot speed.
Speaker 1: That's a big issue.
Speaker 3: In fact, if you look at the tracking data all
along in Mitch Brown's data set, his transition game has
been pretty rough downright awful in a lot of sense.
But as you mentioned, pretty good. He's a smart player,
a good hockey iq offensively and defensively, knows who where
to be in the right spots, can generate turnovers, can
pick the puck off players. It's just the movement part
that's been really tough. And I mentioned in the article
this whole idea that he was a stealer or like
an up and comer that wasn't really well thought of,
only really started after his NHL draft because he was
drafted first overall into the queue back in twenty nineteen.
He actually had some massive pedigree and then he kind
of kind of rolled back a little bit with his
time in the queue, even though he had some pretty
good production, but there was some concerns with the footspeed
as noted, and some of the transition games, so that
kind of turned a lot of scouts off. But I
think this is one of those cases where when you're
just so smart and you know where everyone's going to
be and where you need to be, even if you're
not so quick, it does. None of that really matters
with Joshua. He's just and when you watch some of
the like the World Junior Games that he was in,
he was such a big factor. And it's because he
knows how to play with best players in the world.
He knows how to open up seams, he knows how
to pass into space, he knows how to generate offense
in really tight situations where teams are trying to lock
you down.
Speaker 1: He's really good at all of that.
Speaker 3: And Yeah, that while we chart absolutely blew me away
when I looked at that, because I just couldn't believe
that he was like literally one of the best forwards
on that team, or at least making that all the
other players were worse without him, which was hard to believe.
In his rampam chart from Evolving Hockey looked great in
all situations. I think one of the other surprising things too.
And talking with Ryan Schporr, who had on this show
and had calakesh there was a maybe he had such
a pretty decent showing last year, and I think maybe
there was some expectation that he was going to walk
into camp and be guaranteed a job in the NHL,
and he really did not perform well in camp, which
is why he's win with Laval right now. Although I
think he deserves a shot in the NHL. The Canadians
are also having a little bit of a rough time
right now, but he's thirteen points in fifteen AHL Games.
He definitely looks like he's ready for a promotion. But
dominating down there is never really a bad thing. And
I think the vibes are a little bit better in
the ball right now than they are for the Canadian
so maybe it's not a bad thing to keep him there.
But yeah, josh Wah is just a guy who just
continues to prove everyone wrong and any doubters that he
had just have to keep it. And Crow and I
definitely have been at points skeptical of his ability to produce,
and it just none of the things about his ability
to get around the ice have limited him in ways
that a lot of us thought it would. So he's
a great player for sure.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Joshua we have the NHL ranking. Mason Black given
us a poll josh on josh violence with Joshua Wah
versus josh Done of the Utah Hockey Club who was
about a year older was drafted the same year in
about three rounds sooner and Joshua whoops up on josh
Done sixty six to thirty four victor. Is that how
you rank them?
Speaker 1: Yeah? I think so.
Speaker 3: I think for points upside, it's no question you want Joshua.
He's going to get more offensive opportunities. He's someone who
should definitely be on a top power play in the NHL.
I think he's a very creative player who kind of
demands that role, so to speak. And I'm not sure
that's true for josh Done, although he's someone that I've
also written about and he is more than a sum
of his parts as well. But yeah, I think I
think that you definitely want Joshuah for the scoring.
Speaker 1: But for the priffs.
Speaker 3: It's actually interesting because you would think that josh Don,
who's build is more of a physical guy, it would
have more in the way of some priffs for that,
and he's pretty decent in his bash. His hits are
actually a little bit better than Was. But Wah has
a ton of blocks and he's a really big shooter,
and neither of those are true for Josh Don. Although
Doan does shoot a fair amount, Was shoots even more so.
I think even in a Bangers league, I'd still want
Wah because the scoring is better and the priffs would
be similar, if not slightly better.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 3: I think the voting on this one was bang on.
Even if there is a big Habs bias there, I'm
not sure if there is, but there often is.
Speaker 2: It seems like, yeah, all those Canadians fans and how
they react on social media, we've got a good one here.
The pro team is not necessarily cooking it this year,
but yeah, it's certainly looking forward to seeing the fully
formed and operational version.
Speaker 1: Of Josh Wah.
Speaker 2: What kind of fantasy player could this guy be at
his peak, Victor.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a good question.
Speaker 3: I think that he's someone who I would expect to
be like a seventy ish point player. I think that
he can. I think that he can reach those highs.
I think that depending on how well the power play
is cooking and how entrenched he is on that unit,
maybe he is a little bit lower than that, maybe
it's fifty to sixty. I certainly think the upside for
seventy is there. I don't know that he touches point
per game, but if the whole team comes around and
they start scoring like gangbusters, then I think maybe he
can get there on outlier seasons. But yeah, I would
say probably in that sixty to seventy point range. I
really think that that Wah is going to be one
of those staple first or second line players. He certainly
has the talent to play with top liners. I don't
know that he himself is a no doubt top liner.
It's one of those guys. In some ways, he reminds
me of Tyler to Foley, right, just a guy who's
he's never really like to fully fut Speed is also
an issue, but the guy is just so smart and
he knows how to score. You watch him play and
he just he makes these subtle moves to the open spot,
like right before he gets his shot off or right
before the player thinks he's got him, and then he
just slips away. And was a lot like that, except
less of a goal scorer and more of a playmaker
to some extent, but he can finish as well, and
so I think he's probably.
Speaker 1: Got that kind of upside.
Speaker 3: And if you look Ato Foley's season production, it isn't
always it isn't always so great, but he certainly can
touch those highs.
Speaker 1: Depends on the context.
Speaker 3: Right, he had the sixty nine seventy three point season,
but mostly he was in the fifties and he was
on those low scoring Kings teams for a while. I
think if he was on some higher scoring teams during
that during his prime, I think he probably could have
touched sixty five seventy a little bit more often.
Speaker 2: Yeah, maybe one of those situations where Joshua is a
first line winger for your team probably doesn't mean you're
taking home the Stanley Cup this year, but on some
teams he can hold down that role for you. Yeah, Victor,
this is good stuff. Those were a couple of forwards.
We're going to take a break. We're going to talk
about a couple of the defensemen you've had in mind.
Speaker 3: Christian Ashakah, you did an apologie, wasn't really familiar with
your game, and you know how casual.
Speaker 2: We're back and we're flipping to the blue line and
starting now with Kevin Korchinski of the Chicago Blackhawks. Korchinsky's
stock with scorching after the surprise shift right from WHL
dominance to the NHL last season. His nineteen year old
season in the NHL was not sparkling, but keep in mind,
the Hawks had to choose whether to either give him
the trial by fire on a completely hapless NHL team
where there was plenty of opportunity. There's plenty of minutes
to go around, so he could get that opportunity or
go for a fourth level or a fourth year at
a level that he'd already been crushing in the WHL.
Maybe not a whole lot left to prove because he
couldn't go to the AHL because of the age rules
that eliminated Rockford from the equation. Now after a year
in the NHL, now he can go to Rockford because
he's old enough and he is playing down there this year.
After three points in his first nine games, he has
put up four in his last four, so he seems
to be heating up just a little bit. Small samples, so,
Kevin Korchinski, after being the surprise top ten pick in
the draft, had some ups and downs. At this point
seems like this was the plan by the Blackhawks. Anyway,
maybe last year's suppressed performance will lead to a buying opportunity.
Unsure Victor guide us through the morass, the maze, the
puzzle that is Kevin Korchinski.
Speaker 3: I'll do my best. I think, in short, I probably
would be buying on this player right now. And I
agree with you as you were alluding to. I think
that the Blackhawks wanted to have control over his development
and the only way to do that was to bring
him up last year and throw him to the Wolves.
That's essentially what happened to him, because he it was
really rough. He if you look at there's a there's
a there's a couple of charts in the article, and
he was quite literally I'm not sure that there was
anyone worse defensively than Kevin Koorchyinsky by some of these metrics,
by at Evolving Hockey. He was in the birth the
one percentile. It was really bad, and I think a
lot of that was the team and you're just struggling
to keep your head above water. But also I think
that it is a bit emblematic that is something that
was never really his strong suit. When you look at
the tracking data from Mitch Brown, Kortchinsky all along was
really not great, and I think a lot of these
deficiencies were masked by he played on just one of
the most stacked WHL teams. I can remember seeing that
Seattle Thunderbird team that twenty one, twenty two, twenty two,
twenty three was just insane, and they were even pretty
good in his Draft minus one season, although those deficiencies
showed a little bit more because it wasn't quite a
stacked and I think they also just wanted him to
go do his offensive thing and not worry so much
about that because they were so good defensively.
Speaker 1: But that was really a.
Speaker 3: Problem for him. And you had a great interview last
week with Corey Schneider of all three zones, and I
put one of his charts in here, and it's really
interesting looking at his charts because you can see some
of the things he did really well even in the NHL,
despite all those metrics being so poor, Like he was
really good at being able to deny entry to a
lot of players, showing some of that range and some
of that mobility. Some of the exits per sixty were fantastic.
Some of the defensive zone touches, some of the controlled entries.
Some of the things were just elite despite a lot
of them being bad or poor, And as he mentioned
on that show, some of those things you just had
to take into context and realize, Yeah, there was just
chaos going on around him. So I think you take
some of that good with the bad, and I think
you have to realize that wheneveryone comes along, he's gonna
be He's going to be great. And I've watched a
couple of his game highlights on in the AHL and
he his confidence is back. He's trying lots of things.
He's got excellent mobility and offense, and I think that's
gonna come along. But we I think it doesn't really
make sense for them to bring him up right now
when the team is clearly not taking the step that
they thought that they could this year. And who knows,
maybe there'll be a coaching change, maybe some of the
other guys will come along. We'll have to wait and see,
but I think it's pretty telling that they want him
down there, and they have a couple of the other
guys on the NHL squad that they're clearly not as
worried about spoiling or having an issue in terms of
I guess what I meant. What I'm saying is that
they're not as invested as they are with Korchinski, and
they don't want him to develop poorly or learn bad
habits or anything. And a guy like Waya Kaiser, who's
someone else who is playing a lot right now, and
I think that he could be a fine depth defense
but I don't think I think correctly the Hawks aren't
as worried about what happens to him because I don't
think they see him as a future top pairing guy.
Whereas Korchinsky, you want to protect that. You want to
give him those top minutes in the HL without losing confidence,
without struggling, losing night to night. It becomes a thing.
You know, you start losing and then you get used
to it, and I don't think you ever really get
okay with it. But he gets complacent about it, and
they don't want that to happen to him. Yeah, I
definitely think this is a Bilo window. Some people could
look at it and say, oh, he did terrible in
his first NHL season and then they went back to
the AHL and he's been stuck there ever, since get
rid of this guy, that could be the perception, and
I think that would be a mistake because even though
I'm not sure that he's the for sure top offensive
defenseman in Chicago now, especially after they drafted ar Tumlupshunov,
who seems to be much more dynamic and have a
lot more of that skill, I certainly think it could
end up being like a Minshakoff in Zelweger's situation in
Chicago or in LA And I think that either one
of those guys could get the opportunity. It could go
back and forth, and either way, I think Kortzensky's going
to get a ton of offensive minutes an opportunity, and
if the rebuild does finally work out, eventually there should
be some offensive talent on this team to score goals
even if it's at even strength. So I'm buying Kortynsky,
if I can, Jesse.
Speaker 2: Yes, for sure. Yes, the Blackhawks went all in to
get this guy, and they certainly are going to be
doing everything they can to develop him to ultimate success.
Mason Black the NHL ranking put out the word that
we want to know who was better of Kevin Korchinsky
or Shimon Nimisch of the New Jersey Devils, who's also
been taking his lumps up in the NHL. Of course,
Nemisch was drafted number two overall in the draft, where
Korchinsky went number seven. What a defenseman draft that was.
And Nemech is out ahead of Korzhinsky right now. As
we said, Korchinsky's value maybe at a little bit of
a low EBB with the lack of performance that he
had in the NHL last year. Fifteen points in seventy
six games, and so Simonemach comes out ahead fifty five
to forty five victor. Is that how you would rank
these two?
Speaker 3: I think a lot of people know that I'm a
big skeptical of Simonemach, which is really funny because early
on this season he got a couple of goals and
people were not shy to message me and tell me
how wrong I was about doubting semo Imach, which I
always find funny, and I'm like, okay, let's check back
in a little bit. Right He had that one assist
right away, and man, he has one point nine games now,
So yeah, I think that that some of the I
think what this shows me and what I've always thought
is that his offensive generation I think is a bit exaggerated,
and I think he's an excellent semon image is going
to be a good defenseman, But I'm not sure he's
going to produce a lot of points. He's someone who
could get a lot of minutes and not necessarily score
a lot. He reminds me actually a little bit of Devontave's,
who's just so good, really good transition player, really good
to have on your team, really makes your team better.
But is he a great fantasy asset. He certainly is
now like valuable, But if you drafted and held him
that whole time, you were frustrated for a lot of
that time and might have dropped him or traded him.
And that might be the case with Nemich. It depends
on the depth of the league. If you're in a
really deep league, you're probably fine drafting and holding him,
But if you're in like a twelve or fourteen team league,
I don't know, you might get a little frustrated having
him on your roster and not scoring a whole lot,
but helping his team a lot and getting a lot
of minutes. So maybe the priffs come up enough. But
he really isn't someone who's ever done that very much
at all at any level. With enough minutes, he might
get there his bash and armat what we've in the
Fantasy Hockic Life player card that you can see he's
rated at forty percentile, so he's not ever going to
do that a lot. But if he plays enough minutes,
he could get the average. But then is that really
what you want to invest a top asset in. So
I think Kortynski he's going to get some pretty big
minutes eventually when he comes back up, and I have
a little bit more faith in his offensive creation, partially
because he's not.
Speaker 1: As good defensively as Nemtch is.
Speaker 3: So I think Nemech is going to be able to
fill that role a little bit better and the team
will be happy having him on the ice, pairing him
with a more offensive guy or potentially driving his own pair,
whereas Kortyinski, he's going to give you a little bit
more offense and he's going to demand a little bit
more of that opportunity. I still don't know if it's
him or elektchenoff long term. I probably would leave lean
lichtienoff at this point, but it remains to be seen
which one is going to be a little bit more valuable.
Speaker 2: Certainly Livschunoff as he was drafted, I think even he
was drafted higher than Korzchyinsky, right. Korchiski, by the way,
was the return for Alex to brink It effectively the
draft pick that they used to trade, all right, they
got back with the to brink It deal was what
got them Korczyinsky. But yeah, we've got two defenseman matriculating
the system. We know Simonemach, I think we know Simonemach
is never going to be the most offensively talented player
on the New Jersey Devils so long as Luke Hughes
roams the earth. But Kevin Korchynski and Lepschhinov they could
battle it out for a little while. Koorchinsky feels to
me like either he's going to be able to take
that kind of a rule or he's just going to
drop off the face of the earth. The floor seems lower.
But is that an accurate take on what kind of
fantasy player we could have here, that if Korchinsky can't
get enough defense together, that he's simply going to be
completely out of the picture, or what is the fantasy
profile we're looking forward to your victor.
Speaker 3: I'm not sure that the flora is so low. He's
not going to be like out of the NHL. He
would be like he's an NHL defenseman. I think I
can't imagine him being anything worse than a third pair
guy that's pretty good, you know, in transition, like Eric
Gustafson comes to mind. I think he's better than Eric
Gustafson by a lot, so I don't think he is there.
So maybe he's like a second if he's not on
your top pair, maybe he's your second pairing guy, and
maybe you have to, you know, a number one and
number two defenseman, one on each pair, and maybe he's
on the second pair. Kind of thing. To me, that's
where I think he ends up. He just does so
many things well, and he's got that good size and
mobility that even if the offense doesn't fully translate, he's
still going to be good enough to drive that line.
Speaker 1: And I think that he may be.
Speaker 3: Frustrating in the sense that he's not scoring a ton
of points, but I think a thirty to forty point
floor with pretty decent priffs is someone that you're looking
at So in the right context, in a deep enough league,
that's really interesting. In a shallow league that's not interesting
at all. So it really depends on or maybe not
that interesting. So it depends on your league and what
you're expecting from him. I think if you drafted him
expecting him to be like a sixty plus point guy
with tons of bash, yeah, that's where I would agree
with you and say, I'm not sure that's going to happen.
I'd be a little bit worried about that. But if
the cost of acquisition is so low, then I would
take a flyer and hope that he gets close to that.
Speaker 2: Okay, maybe fifty Is that what I should be kid?
Do I hear fifty? Victor? Do I hear fifty one?
I need an auctioneer fifty point pace? Yeah? Yeah, As
what you're hoping to see out of this guy at his.
Speaker 3: Peak, I think he can. I think he can get
to sixty if it all comes down to that power play, right,
if he's if the Hawks I see, I think it
really depends on what the team does, because this team,
I think has really struggled to emerge from this rebuild,
and they might get mired in this for many years
to come, like the Ducks have struggled to emerge, and
so if they continue to be like that, then he
might not score more than thirty to forty points. But
if they do emerge and they become a high scoring
team and he's running the power play or at least
maybe try to trading off with lipsoonof But if he's
running the top power play and the team is scoring,
I think he can easily hit sixty plus. If the
team doesn't score as much, or if he's splitting the
power play or on power play two, then yeah, maybe
he hits fifty. So Unfortunately, I think in this situation,
I'm not sure that he's one of these guys that's
so good he's gonna make it happen. I think a
lot of it depends on what happens around him.
Speaker 2: All Right, it makes sense. And the fourth and final
player we're going to discuss today again another defenseman, Olin
Zelweger of the Anaheim Ducks. This has traditionally been a
Zelwegger positive podcast. There were good times for him and
we loved him for every minute of it. He has
now passed forty career NHL games. Jamie Drysdale is out
of the way that was originally supposed to be the competition.
But olin Zelweger under half a point per game. But
he's hanging in there. His advanced stats are actually above
average for his team, which is not a well performing team.
He has been the defenseman on powerplay one. It's been
a bad power play, but he has got the most
minutes of any defenseman on the Ducks at the power play.
He has jumped from video game numbers in the WHL
that really broke out, really caught everybody's a ten at
a different level to the following year near point per
game numbers in the AHL, to then half a point
per game in the NHL. You know, on the succession
of three straight years, he really has put up very
good performances and as a twenty one year old five
to seven defenseman, I gotta like that. But I get
the sense now that there's not the same optimism that
he's going to take a leap to a top fifteen
type fantasy d man, which is what I felt like
we were saying in his late WHL days. Victor, what
do you make of olin Zelweger today and what's your
perceptions there?
Speaker 3: Such a roller coaster, right I think that's the biggest
thing said. It has been a massive roller coaster from
he didn't get drafted in the first round because of
his size, and then he's tearing up the WHL and
leading Team Canada to gold medals and Okay, this guy's amazing.
And then oh, but he's still too small. I'm not
sure he can do it in the HL, in the NHL,
or even in the HL. And then he does produce
solidly in the AHL, and it's okay, maybe again, and
then some of his NHL time is underwhelming. And then
you're up and down between Yah Drysdale and then Minchikov
like Scorches passed him for the opportunity and it's whoa.
And then Minchikov has slowed down and regressed a little bit.
The whole defenceman and offensive defenseman prospect pool there in
Anaheim has been really up and down and confusing. So
I think that's one of the biggest things that's been
difficult to parse out. But I think one thing that's
been true about Zellwegger that all those other things are irrelevant,
is that he's pretty much produced everywhere he's been, with
the exception of those first twenty six NHL games where
the whole team was not doing great, but he still
had nine points in twenty six games in a very
limited role. And then he went to the HL and
absolutely killed it and killed it at the World A
World Cup with or did well with the World Cup
with Canada and was really impressive there. And yeah, so
far this season, it's been really interesting to me to
see Minchikov round out his game and to some extent
struggle a little bit. And zel Weger has been given
that opportunity to run the power play and done it
quite well. I do think he's the more natural fit
there because he is more of an offensive defenseman, and
I think ze I think Minchikov is more of an
all around defenseman. I think Minchikov is your prototypical number
one defenseman who can play in any situation.
Speaker 1: He's got more size and physicality.
Speaker 3: And I think he can handle some of those all
around minutes a little bit better. But I'm not sure
that he's so offensive. Although on the other hand, when
you look at his data at Evolving Hockey, Minchikov has
incredible expected goals four for sixty and has just the
team around him has not converted hardly anything when he's
been on the ice, and Zellweger has been the opposite.
Zel Wegger hasn't generated that much and the team has
overperformed their conversion when he's on the ice. So the
whole picture might still be a little bit misleading because
it sure seems like ze is punching back and sliding
back into that top top role now.
Speaker 1: But we'll just have to see.
Speaker 3: There's also Tristan Lenau who is in the mix as
someone who may be coming around behind him, and then
there's some other guys like Jackson Lacombe, who I think
is just more of a stay at home kind of guy.
Speaker 1: And then with the idea.
Speaker 3: With Cam Fowler, maybe moving on, this whole thing might
even get turned around even more because if he leaves,
there'll be more opportunities. It's all kind of confusing, but
I really believe in Zellweger.
Speaker 1: I always have.
Speaker 3: I just didn't know how much he could pull his
own weight at even strength. Some of the people I
talk to about Zellweger, though, really feel like the floor
for him is that of a top four defenceman. The floor,
and I think that there's even the potential that he
certainly could be their their top defenceman, or maybe if
he's paired with a more stay at home guy like
a Quinn Hughes who really is great on his own,
fantastic on his own, but is even more unleashed with
playing with someone like Philip Pronik right or back in
the day that I think about Brent Burns and how
he was unleashed by playing with palm and a really
stay at home defenceman. So maybe they just need to
find that for Zellweger and he'll be even better. Whereas Minchikov,
I don't think he needs that, he doesn't need a
really solid partner. I think he's going to be fine
on his own, but he may not get those offensive minutes.
I was a little troubled though, by looking at the
synthetic goals, which we referenced earlier with Zelweger. His data
from last year was pretty awful. He was a minus
four point six synthetic goal taking an account all his situations.
But again, he was twenty one and he was not
given the best opportunity and it really was rough for him.
But this season it's been much much better. So yeah,
I definitely am a big fan of Zellweger, and it's
starting to look more and more like he is going
to be the offensive defenseman quarterback for that power play
that should, in theory be really good one day in
Anaheim again, Jesse.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that would be tremendous. So Mason Black put it
out there, David, you to check, You to check? Victor.
Speaker 1: I'm a check.
Speaker 2: Everybody's a check. David Erachek versus Olin Zelweger. The poll
has been put out, the people have answered, and Olin
Zelweger krushus the competition. David Eurachek was drafted almost thirty
picks earlier than him in the following year, eighty two
twenty percent. Olin Zelweger over David Echek. Is that how
you rank these two?
Speaker 1: Victor? Yeah, I don't know about that.
Speaker 3: I love David Yerchek, as everyone knows, and I also
love Zellweger. But these are two very different defensemen, I
would say. And right now, there we just heard word,
and maybe by the time you hear this there'll be
something to announce. But it sounds like they might be
considering moving year Check to a different team. There's been
no secret that he's been frustrated with not playing In fact,
there was a really funny thing that he did where
they were asking him about he was asked about the
different arenas and he was talking about the press boxes
and the different arena and how he has such intimate
knowledge of where the best places are to watch a game,
because that's what he's been doing, is watching and not playing,
and that's been really hard for him. He definitely feels
like he should be in there, and yeah, there have
been some issues with him maybe not being the best,
but it definitely feels like he's earned the opportunity to
learn on the job like a lot of the other
young players in Columbus are doing, and he's not getting
that opportunity.
Speaker 1: So it's been frustrating.
Speaker 3: Just six games this year when he probably should be
should be played eighteen or something like that. And he's
been great in the HL since playing there. And he's
a bash master, right. That's one of the big deals
with him is that he should have a little bit
more bash than zel Weeger, although Zelweger should have more scoring.
So if you're in a points only league, I think
it's definitely Zelweger. If you're in a league that counts
bash and other criteria, then I think I might stick
to your check, And just on that note, I do
think that there's a huge, by low window right now
for David year Check. I think that a lot of
people have soured on him, given up hope, and I
would not if you can, or I would try to
buy if you can, because I think that it's very
possible he goes another team, instantly gets put in the
lineup and starts putting up big numbers, at least big
Bash numbers. But I think for the more offense and
the more security right now, I think I probably would
go with the voters and lean Zellweger. But this is
just mean by Mason, because I like both of these.
Speaker 1: Guys a lot.
Speaker 2: I just checked who rosters your check in my leagues,
and it's a bunch of stupid Simon. Simon's got him everywhere.
There's no Waympion forget it. Samo, you got him, you
got You're a check. I can't get him from you.
I get it, I get it, all right. But this
is clearly people being biased against David. You're a Check
for being in Columbus. People are always going to choose
the prospects in the big Glory franchises over somebody from Columbus.
Oh wait, Zellwegger's from Anaheim. That doesn't check out anyway, Yeah, Victory,
So how high? What's the top you can see you
for Zelwiger? The cut to the chase here? What are
we going to get out of him?
Speaker 3: I do think he's He's in the same vein as
Quinn Hughes. I think he can be like a sixty
seventy point defenseman, plus depending on how good the team
around him is. If he's got some elite finishers at
the top of the lineup, which in theory Anaheim should,
but it isn't really looking like that right now. But yeah,
if the team around him can push him up towards
point per game, I think he could hit that.
Speaker 1: Wow.
Speaker 2: All right, let's see what happens with Olin Zoewegger. But
certainly he is a man who should not be out
of mind for you, Victor. I think that's going to
do it today. People should definitely be reading your articles
at EP ringside. These are just some of the players
who you've looked into deeply. But these analyses are really
cool because you've got charts and grafts in there, but
you're also talking to people who are watching the players
very closely, some of the scouts in other smart minds
in the industry, and it's just some good stuff. So
I'm glad we're able to share some of this with
the peeps out there today. We'll be right back to
close the show. Well, what else can you say to
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You can follow Victor and myself on x at Fan
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