1 00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:04,120 Speaker 1: You're listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, where you 2 00:00:04,120 --> 00:00:08,080 get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else to 3 00:00:08,240 --> 00:00:12,279 thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival 4 00:00:12,320 --> 00:00:17,039 Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot 5 00:00:17,039 --> 00:00:21,399 com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival 6 00:00:21,440 --> 00:00:24,120 Network now more than ever. 7 00:00:27,559 --> 00:00:31,199 Speaker 2: And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial 8 00:00:31,239 --> 00:00:34,840 Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Letz. Well with us 9 00:00:34,840 --> 00:00:40,719 today is Adam Taggart. Your reputation, Adam precedes you huge, 10 00:00:41,079 --> 00:00:45,840 huge presence out there in the thoughtful money business, and 11 00:00:45,960 --> 00:00:50,920 that's your website, thoughtful Money dot com. And hey, we've 12 00:00:50,920 --> 00:00:54,039 had this huge run up in metals. Now we're getting 13 00:00:54,079 --> 00:01:00,039 the inevitable party hangover, if you will. Amazing at it 14 00:01:00,079 --> 00:01:05,840 looks like silver will retrace almost exactly fifty percent a 15 00:01:05,879 --> 00:01:10,599 little what do you call that contrati if number or whatever, 16 00:01:11,359 --> 00:01:13,920 and then we're. 17 00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:17,480 Speaker 3: Back to the races right well, from your lips to 18 00:01:17,519 --> 00:01:22,159 God's ears. Look, there's a lot of reasons to still 19 00:01:22,200 --> 00:01:25,959 be really bullish on silver's price in the long term, 20 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:30,760 and it has certainly been club like a turkey BLT. 21 00:01:31,040 --> 00:01:37,480 I said an X last night. Now, you know, we 22 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:40,599 are hopefully seeing some pretty good entry points here for 23 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:42,680 folks that want to add to their exposure. Or if 24 00:01:42,680 --> 00:01:44,680 you missed the run up the first time and we're 25 00:01:44,760 --> 00:01:47,359 kicking yourself, you know, this may be a great gift 26 00:01:47,359 --> 00:01:50,200 from the universe to get in. That said, you know, 27 00:01:50,239 --> 00:01:51,040 could it go lower? 28 00:01:51,239 --> 00:01:51,519 Speaker 4: Sure? 29 00:01:52,159 --> 00:01:54,879 Speaker 3: And you know, I think anything is possible. 30 00:01:55,719 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 4: I think. 31 00:01:56,040 --> 00:01:57,560 Speaker 3: Let me put this way, I think I think as 32 00:01:57,599 --> 00:02:00,959 long as the war situation continues to sus stain, and 33 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:04,120 if it becomes even more kinnectic. More concerning, if oil 34 00:02:04,159 --> 00:02:06,640 prices go even higher, or at least even just stay 35 00:02:06,719 --> 00:02:09,840 high at these prices for longer than folks are currently expecting, 36 00:02:10,400 --> 00:02:13,840 that may still have some negative knock on effects on 37 00:02:13,879 --> 00:02:16,439 the precious metals. So I don't want to sell the 38 00:02:17,479 --> 00:02:19,400 story that I think. You know, solber is going to 39 00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:22,400 take off to the moon tomorrow necessarily. And you were 40 00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:25,520 asking me before we turned the camera on, Kerrie, if 41 00:02:25,520 --> 00:02:30,479 I expected the medals to follow this much, And I 42 00:02:30,719 --> 00:02:33,840 think the answer, honest answer is is I was totally 43 00:02:33,879 --> 00:02:37,400 open to it. And the reason for that was I've 44 00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:40,599 been a long term precious metal investor like you I 45 00:02:41,599 --> 00:02:45,080 nineteen eighty I was nine years old, so I wasn't 46 00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:49,039 following that one super closely, but certainly it was pretty 47 00:02:49,159 --> 00:02:52,879 heavily in the precious metals when twenty eleven came along 48 00:02:54,039 --> 00:02:57,400 and so saw that, you know, bull off spike and 49 00:02:57,439 --> 00:03:01,439 then what happened after that, and so when we were 50 00:03:02,360 --> 00:03:03,639 try to remember when I did this, I think it 51 00:03:03,680 --> 00:03:06,560 was June of twenty twenty five, June of last year. 52 00:03:07,479 --> 00:03:11,080 There were a preponderance of events happening that made me 53 00:03:11,280 --> 00:03:15,080 exceptionally bullish on you know, the prices of the precious metals, 54 00:03:15,199 --> 00:03:18,520 but in particular sober and you know, Carrie, I'm not 55 00:03:18,680 --> 00:03:21,840 a financial guru. I don't put myself out there as one. 56 00:03:22,879 --> 00:03:25,400 If anything, I'm sort of a guru of gurus. 57 00:03:26,319 --> 00:03:27,080 Speaker 4: I do what you do for. 58 00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:29,080 Speaker 3: A living, which is I talked to a lot of 59 00:03:29,120 --> 00:03:30,719 the best minds of money in the markets. And if 60 00:03:30,759 --> 00:03:33,800 I have any value from that, it's the fact that 61 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:36,000 I get to talk to so many people and I 62 00:03:36,039 --> 00:03:39,319 get to synthesize, you know, what they say. And one 63 00:03:39,360 --> 00:03:41,759 of the things that I look for and what I 64 00:03:41,800 --> 00:03:46,319 do is when I hear the same conclusion coming up 65 00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:50,960 in conversation after conversation with experts who use different methodologies, 66 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:53,400 so they're all taking different paths, but their paths are 67 00:03:53,479 --> 00:03:56,960 leading to the same destination. And when I hear that happen, 68 00:03:57,400 --> 00:03:59,800 I start to think, Okay, the probability of that can 69 00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:03,599 illusion is probably higher than normal because so many people 70 00:04:03,680 --> 00:04:06,639 are getting there with different methodologies. And I was hearing 71 00:04:06,639 --> 00:04:09,800 that around silver so much to the point that, like 72 00:04:09,840 --> 00:04:11,840 I said, I don't put myself out there as a 73 00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:17,199 as a financial guru, but I remember when bitcoin was 74 00:04:17,240 --> 00:04:21,120 really taking off and everybody in social media was giving 75 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:24,199 themselves laser eyes as a way to indicate that I'm 76 00:04:24,199 --> 00:04:28,319 on the bitcoin train. So June of last year, I 77 00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:32,120 gave myself silver eyes. So I just put these two 78 00:04:33,439 --> 00:04:35,720 Solber eagles, you know, coins over the eye of my 79 00:04:35,839 --> 00:04:38,759 profile avatar and said, hey, folks, I'm getting really bullish 80 00:04:38,800 --> 00:04:42,000 on silver. And then fortunately one of my followers very 81 00:04:42,079 --> 00:04:45,399 quickly added like silber laser beams coming out of the eyes, right, 82 00:04:45,439 --> 00:04:49,279 So I had silver laser eyes, and I you know, 83 00:04:49,399 --> 00:04:51,199 there's probably a lot of luck in this, folks. But 84 00:04:52,040 --> 00:04:54,879 that was basically when sober you know, basically went from 85 00:04:54,959 --> 00:04:58,480 I don't know that twenty eight, you know, from then 86 00:04:58,519 --> 00:05:02,319 on it went off to the ra and early this year, 87 00:05:02,720 --> 00:05:05,839 when it got to one hundred dollars an ounce, I 88 00:05:05,879 --> 00:05:08,680 took the silver eyes off and I told folks, look, 89 00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:12,839 I hope this thing continues to go higher. I'll cheer 90 00:05:12,920 --> 00:05:15,560 it if it does. But I'm getting really nervous that 91 00:05:15,600 --> 00:05:20,160 silver is just getting incredibly over sold, sorry, overbought, just 92 00:05:20,199 --> 00:05:22,439 because it's price action. I mean, Carrie, you know that 93 00:05:22,920 --> 00:05:26,720 no asset goes vertical forever, and the more vertical the 94 00:05:26,720 --> 00:05:29,439 price action becomes, the more likely not only that it's 95 00:05:29,439 --> 00:05:31,439 going to pull back sometime soon, but the pullback is 96 00:05:31,439 --> 00:05:34,240 going to be probably pretty violent. And I got a 97 00:05:34,279 --> 00:05:36,920 lot of flak initially from this, you know, the Silver bros. 98 00:05:37,439 --> 00:05:39,879 Because they didn't want me to send a signal that 99 00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:43,079 the party was ending. And of course, Silver, you know, 100 00:05:43,120 --> 00:05:45,160 over the next week and a half, you know, went 101 00:05:45,199 --> 00:05:47,560 to one hundred and twenty an ounce, and so for 102 00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:49,879 a very brief moment, a lot of people were saying, Adam, 103 00:05:49,920 --> 00:05:52,920 you're totally missing the boat here. But then, of course 104 00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:56,240 we had this correction, and if you look at the 105 00:05:56,279 --> 00:05:59,519 price action the last two times Silver did this two 106 00:05:59,560 --> 00:06:05,959 thousand in nineteen eighty, the replacements were just brutal. By 107 00:06:06,000 --> 00:06:08,519 the time they were done, not only had they given 108 00:06:08,600 --> 00:06:11,079 up pretty much all the gains that Sover had made 109 00:06:11,199 --> 00:06:13,920 over the run, but then Sober was like dead money 110 00:06:13,959 --> 00:06:18,720 for like a decade or more. And so I don't 111 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:21,920 think that's going to be the case this time. But 112 00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:24,480 I think you have to respect the price action and 113 00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:27,639 just know that there's a non zero probability that the 114 00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:32,720 price could continue following the shape of the previous two corrections. 115 00:06:33,199 --> 00:06:37,800 Now that being said, Sober is many many different things 116 00:06:37,800 --> 00:06:41,839 going on this time. You know, nineteen eighty essentially was 117 00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:45,560 a response to the Hunt Brothers trying to corner the market. 118 00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:47,800 It was, you know, one actor that then just got 119 00:06:47,800 --> 00:06:50,879 beaten in the submission. This time, it's the whole world 120 00:06:51,399 --> 00:06:55,160 that is going after physical very different story. I interview 121 00:06:55,839 --> 00:06:57,959 precious metals experts. 122 00:06:58,319 --> 00:06:58,920 Speaker 4: I like to. 123 00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:01,560 Speaker 3: Interview dealers, you know, the guys that are actually there 124 00:07:02,600 --> 00:07:04,639 with their hands on the pulse of what's going on 125 00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:07,000 in the physical world. And I interview any Scheckment a 126 00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:11,000 lot Andy. But Andy is saying that, you know, over 127 00:07:11,040 --> 00:07:14,160 the course of his like, you know, thirty plus year 128 00:07:14,240 --> 00:07:17,199 career in this industry, the volumes we're seeing right now 129 00:07:17,199 --> 00:07:22,839 in terms of the demand for physical silver unprecedented, and 130 00:07:22,839 --> 00:07:26,240 and the volumes that are being taken for delivery out 131 00:07:26,240 --> 00:07:30,560 of the comes totally unprecedented. And they're at such levels that, 132 00:07:30,879 --> 00:07:35,199 I mean, tens of millions of ounces a month that 133 00:07:35,360 --> 00:07:41,920 it's hard to imagine anybody other than a sovereign player taking, 134 00:07:42,040 --> 00:07:43,959 you know, being able to take delivery of those volumes. 135 00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:45,600 You get to remember, you to take delivery of it. 136 00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:48,240 You you get stored somewhere, you got to ship it, 137 00:07:48,600 --> 00:07:51,199 you know, ship it and shi securely. 138 00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:52,319 Speaker 4: Yeah. 139 00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:56,399 Speaker 3: So so that's very different obviously with the central banks 140 00:07:56,399 --> 00:07:58,800 that have turned into the very big net buyers of 141 00:07:58,800 --> 00:08:04,120 the precious metals in recent years. It's now been declared 142 00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:07,959 an essential mineral by the US government and has a 143 00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:11,000 similar status and an increasing number of governments out there. 144 00:08:11,839 --> 00:08:15,480 As you know, Andy likes to say, you know, a 145 00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:19,639 US missile, you know, takes I don't know how many 146 00:08:19,720 --> 00:08:22,720 hundreds of bounces of sober, but but several hundred ounces 147 00:08:22,839 --> 00:08:25,879 a sober per missile. We're vaporizing on a sober right 148 00:08:25,879 --> 00:08:27,519 now over in the Middle East. That all needs to 149 00:08:27,519 --> 00:08:30,959 get restocked. If you just look at the commercial demand 150 00:08:31,120 --> 00:08:37,159 for everything from UH electronics to you know, the data 151 00:08:37,159 --> 00:08:38,559 centers that we're building. 152 00:08:38,240 --> 00:08:39,320 Speaker 4: In an AI world. 153 00:08:39,480 --> 00:08:41,480 Speaker 3: You know you're going to need the world's most conductive 154 00:08:41,480 --> 00:08:44,120 element for all that. So there's all sorts of reasons 155 00:08:44,399 --> 00:08:46,600 to be really quite bullish this time and say, yes, 156 00:08:46,639 --> 00:08:48,960 it is different than it was in the previous two 157 00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:53,759 price bikes that that that then disappated away. So you know, 158 00:08:53,840 --> 00:08:56,399 long story short, I think you can make some pretty 159 00:08:56,399 --> 00:08:59,639 good technical conclusions here in the near term that sober 160 00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:02,799 is pretty short term over sold, and that at the 161 00:09:02,919 --> 00:09:06,440 minute we get some relief in the world's fears about 162 00:09:06,440 --> 00:09:10,600 the war, that silver could have a really violent reaction 163 00:09:10,679 --> 00:09:12,240 to the upside. And one of the big things that's 164 00:09:12,279 --> 00:09:16,519 going on right now, Kerrie, is you know there is 165 00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:20,200 forced selling going on in the world right now because 166 00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:23,919 of the I oil pricess liquidation in a couple of ways, 167 00:09:24,039 --> 00:09:26,600 a couple of ways. You know, big players countries even 168 00:09:26,879 --> 00:09:29,159 right they're having to spend a lot more in oil 169 00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:32,120 suddenly than they were before. So to fund that, they're 170 00:09:32,120 --> 00:09:35,399 selling their assets that have value, and precious metals have 171 00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:36,879 been in a great run, so there's a lot of 172 00:09:36,879 --> 00:09:41,960 profit and old There also one one question for you 173 00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:45,159 which everybody's been reading about it. 174 00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:47,799 Speaker 2: I know it's out there. I don't really like to 175 00:09:47,840 --> 00:09:51,480 follow the trend because that's how they get you the narrative. 176 00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:56,320 But we do have this private credit crack up. Now 177 00:09:56,399 --> 00:09:59,159 my feeling is it already happened six months to a 178 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:02,960 year ago. It's just like when a star explodes and 179 00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:06,720 turns into a black hole and twenty light years later 180 00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:10,440 we see it happen. That's what happens in the markets. 181 00:10:11,960 --> 00:10:16,039 How real is is the private credit crackup? Is that 182 00:10:16,159 --> 00:10:19,519 leading to liquidation in the markets? What's your work say 183 00:10:19,559 --> 00:10:20,559 on that? And sorry for. 184 00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:23,360 Speaker 3: Cap do you I think it works as we're still 185 00:10:23,360 --> 00:10:26,519 we're still finding out. But that's it's a great segue 186 00:10:26,519 --> 00:10:28,320 to the point out was I was making, which is 187 00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:32,240 not only is oil just forcing you know, large players 188 00:10:32,279 --> 00:10:35,240 to sell assets to fund the higher oil, but it's 189 00:10:35,279 --> 00:10:38,080 also you know, weight on the markets we've had We've 190 00:10:38,120 --> 00:10:41,679 had a lot of market weakness because of the knock 191 00:10:41,720 --> 00:10:44,240 kind of effects of the war here and there. You 192 00:10:44,279 --> 00:10:46,600 get forced margin calls right where you get investors who 193 00:10:46,639 --> 00:10:49,159 are leving me or whatnot. You're literally just hey, you know, 194 00:10:49,279 --> 00:10:50,919 either either you get to put more money in today 195 00:10:50,960 --> 00:10:52,759 or we are selling your positions. Whether you like it 196 00:10:52,840 --> 00:10:55,080 or not, right, So I think that's pushing this down 197 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:57,519 to now, how much of that is due to potentially 198 00:10:57,519 --> 00:11:01,200 private credit? I don't know is the real answer. And 199 00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:04,440 I just telled my Spring conference this past week and 200 00:11:04,559 --> 00:11:08,799 carry so I had I don't know. You know, fifteen 201 00:11:08,919 --> 00:11:12,320 presenters talk a lot about private credit throughout the day, 202 00:11:12,919 --> 00:11:16,000 and you know what I took from that is is 203 00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:21,159 there's definitely real there there, just FYI. I don't think 204 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:25,639 any of them thinks that this is as existential a 205 00:11:25,679 --> 00:11:28,399 threat to kind of the financial system the way that 206 00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:31,559 subprime was. But they're all saying, but I could be wrong. 207 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:38,519 I think a big hedge, yeah, but a really interesting ques. 208 00:11:38,600 --> 00:11:40,000 So one of the reasons why we don't know how 209 00:11:40,039 --> 00:11:42,519 big it is is because private credits willpaque. Right, So, 210 00:11:42,639 --> 00:11:46,559 unlike the public banking system, we don't have visibility into 211 00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:47,120 these loans. 212 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:48,799 Speaker 4: We don't know what. 213 00:11:48,840 --> 00:11:50,679 Speaker 3: Loans weren't made, we don't know whether they were good 214 00:11:50,720 --> 00:11:52,559 loans or not. We're just not going to find out 215 00:11:53,240 --> 00:11:55,519 until the bodies start floating to the surface, which they 216 00:11:55,559 --> 00:11:57,120 are starting to do now. So I kind of like 217 00:11:57,159 --> 00:12:00,600 your analogy about the supernovas. We you know, we only 218 00:12:00,639 --> 00:12:02,879 see it long after. We only see the damage long 219 00:12:02,879 --> 00:12:08,480 after it was actually inflicted. But one really interesting point 220 00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:12,360 that was raised during this conference was, you know a 221 00:12:12,399 --> 00:12:15,159 lot of these private equity funds are gating the funds 222 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:18,159 right So, I'm a private equity investor, I'm stressed, I'm 223 00:12:18,200 --> 00:12:20,759 now worried about this. I'm reading the headlines, I'm worried, 224 00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:24,799 and i want to take my money out of these funds. Well, 225 00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:26,559 the funds that we can't do that, and as a 226 00:12:26,600 --> 00:12:29,159 matter of fact, we're going to totally gate all withdrawals 227 00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:31,559 right now. So you know, we'll tell you when at 228 00:12:31,559 --> 00:12:32,960 some point in the future you might be able to 229 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:35,600 get access to this again. So if you're that investor 230 00:12:35,679 --> 00:12:40,519 in your A you know, freaked out, and b perhaps 231 00:12:40,559 --> 00:12:42,840 you've got some stress now in your portfolio so you 232 00:12:42,919 --> 00:12:45,480 need you want to or need to liquidate things, Well, 233 00:12:45,519 --> 00:12:48,039 you can't liquidate it from the private market right now, 234 00:12:48,120 --> 00:12:50,480 So where can you liquid it from the public market? 235 00:12:50,519 --> 00:12:52,360 So you have to go over and sell, which you 236 00:12:52,399 --> 00:12:54,879 can on the public side. So, in addition to the 237 00:12:54,879 --> 00:12:56,759 margin call issue we were talking about, I think there 238 00:12:56,799 --> 00:12:59,480 also is this knock on effect of private credit where 239 00:12:59,519 --> 00:13:02,799 private credit investors who are stressed are having to sell 240 00:13:02,879 --> 00:13:06,919 their private sorry, their public assets, you know to Surbien. 241 00:13:07,759 --> 00:13:13,759 Speaker 2: Yep, Well, we call this the Hunter the liquidator, Hunter 242 00:13:13,919 --> 00:13:18,399 the securitizer, who then becomes Hunter the liquidator. And you 243 00:13:18,519 --> 00:13:23,440 know Hunter, he's a twenty something wall streeter and he 244 00:13:23,559 --> 00:13:29,200 drives around it a neon green Lamborghini. That's Hunter the securitizer. 245 00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:33,759 And Hunter is always looking for the next greatest cash flow. 246 00:13:34,480 --> 00:13:39,519 Secure cash flow, uninterruptable, gets better in bad times. And 247 00:13:40,000 --> 00:13:42,879 the last I heard he was throwing coins over his 248 00:13:42,960 --> 00:13:47,360 shoulder at the Trevy Fountain in Rome, looking for the 249 00:13:47,399 --> 00:13:55,679 next great payment stream, everything securitized. Haven't we learned anything here? Well, 250 00:13:55,759 --> 00:13:57,919 I know I know the answer to the question of 251 00:13:57,960 --> 00:14:00,879 that question. It's redundant. But haven't we weren't learned anything 252 00:14:01,039 --> 00:14:06,440 since eight nine and the Great financial Crash? I mean, really, 253 00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:08,840 aren't we doing exactly the same things? 254 00:14:09,320 --> 00:14:11,279 Speaker 4: Well? So, uh I. 255 00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:14,759 Speaker 3: My answer is not going to surprise you at all, 256 00:14:14,799 --> 00:14:17,879 but it's probably under depression even more. No, I don't 257 00:14:17,879 --> 00:14:20,879 think we have and in private credit. I think many 258 00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:25,919 of us watched this sort of train wreck happening in 259 00:14:26,000 --> 00:14:29,600 disbelief saying, hey, didn't don't we know how this ends? 260 00:14:29,720 --> 00:14:31,679 And and uh, you know a number of these companies. 261 00:14:31,679 --> 00:14:35,919 I remember I was probably about six months ago calling 262 00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:38,120 out Blue Owl, which at the time was was. 263 00:14:38,480 --> 00:14:41,639 Speaker 4: You know, riding high. Yeah. 264 00:14:41,679 --> 00:14:44,240 Speaker 3: And they what they were doing is they were buying 265 00:14:44,279 --> 00:14:46,679 the books of a lot of the buy now, pay 266 00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:50,159 later lenders, which Carrie to me, buy now, pay later 267 00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:52,919 is like the epitome of the we didn't learn our 268 00:14:53,000 --> 00:14:58,039 lesson you know, yeah, I love it. Basically loading to 269 00:14:58,159 --> 00:15:00,399 people who were who were taking out an inst alment 270 00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:03,600 plan to buy, you know, burritos from Chipotle. 271 00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:06,279 Speaker 4: We could go wrong, what could go wrong? Right? 272 00:15:06,360 --> 00:15:08,639 Speaker 3: But just to depress you. So, one of the guests 273 00:15:08,679 --> 00:15:11,960 at my conference was Matt tabe oh Sud, the journalist, 274 00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:14,440 the fellow who who you know, was sort of our 275 00:15:14,440 --> 00:15:18,320 generation's chronicler of the two thousand and eight crash, right, 276 00:15:18,360 --> 00:15:20,639 the guy that really made it understandable over the masses. 277 00:15:20,840 --> 00:15:23,240 So I asked him that exact same question and he 278 00:15:23,399 --> 00:15:25,440 just said no. And it's like, I can't believe it. 279 00:15:25,519 --> 00:15:29,519 I mean, for as much time as we spent forensically 280 00:15:29,639 --> 00:15:33,679 picking apart what went wrong last time, the little amount 281 00:15:33,759 --> 00:15:35,519 that we learned from it and the little amount of 282 00:15:35,600 --> 00:15:37,240 change of behavior is just staggering. 283 00:15:37,919 --> 00:15:43,279 Speaker 2: Yeah, they're securitizing everything and in giving it a triple 284 00:15:43,399 --> 00:15:47,399 A bond rating. And you know, I was thinking that 285 00:15:47,519 --> 00:15:51,600 Hunter should go to a new field called the aa 286 00:15:51,840 --> 00:15:57,279 NS allowance anticipation notes, where it allows kids to sell 287 00:15:57,320 --> 00:16:01,039 off up to ten years of their allows so they 288 00:16:01,039 --> 00:16:04,679 can buy an Xbox or a e bike or whatever 289 00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:07,759 it is they want. Because that's when you get down 290 00:16:07,799 --> 00:16:09,960 to it, I don't that's how absurd this thing is. 291 00:16:10,080 --> 00:16:12,799 Speaker 3: Right, we joke about that, but you know, carry that 292 00:16:12,879 --> 00:16:14,840 might happen. As you're saying that, I'm thinking like, oh 293 00:16:14,840 --> 00:16:18,279 my god, maybe they'll securitize people's inheritances, right, like, hey, 294 00:16:18,320 --> 00:16:20,240 we'll give you a loan today, you know, for a 295 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:24,159 claim on your inheritance once your parents die, right yeah. 296 00:16:24,440 --> 00:16:27,000 Speaker 2: Or or we'll give it to you on your life 297 00:16:27,000 --> 00:16:29,759 insurance so you can collect your policy before you die. 298 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:31,399 Isn't that the ultimate? 299 00:16:32,159 --> 00:16:35,399 Speaker 3: I mean, it's it's it's so I'm sure we're just 300 00:16:35,799 --> 00:16:39,679 enraging the viewers here, but yeah, we learned so very 301 00:16:39,679 --> 00:16:42,360 little from this, and of course, to a certain extent, 302 00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:45,879 it's not their fault, Carrie, right, I mean, like, what 303 00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:49,559 did we teach Wall Street and y'uring the GFC you'll 304 00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:52,200 get bailed out, you know, and the losses will get socialized. 305 00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:55,480 I mean, some people forget the big Wall Street banks. 306 00:16:55,480 --> 00:16:58,440 They pay themselves record bonuses in two thousand and nine, 307 00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:02,440 right in the depths of the despair of the GFC. 308 00:17:04,039 --> 00:17:06,480 They were just completely toned after this, and they didn't 309 00:17:06,519 --> 00:17:07,279 pay a price. 310 00:17:07,079 --> 00:17:12,279 Speaker 2: For it, really totally, And yeah, it's no better this time. 311 00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:15,359 What's worse in a way is when you got like 312 00:17:15,960 --> 00:17:19,880 eight million foreclosures taking place or whatever the actual number was. 313 00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:27,839 You can't hide that stuff with this besides the funds gating, 314 00:17:28,720 --> 00:17:32,759 you actually can hide it, just like we hid during 315 00:17:32,799 --> 00:17:36,759 the Great Financial Crisis, sixteen trillion that went out the 316 00:17:36,799 --> 00:17:40,039 door to bail out European banks, right right, it's the 317 00:17:40,079 --> 00:17:43,880 same thing because now under dot Frank, it's supposed to 318 00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:45,880 be a bill and well, you know that's never going 319 00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:48,160 to happen because nobody's going to put up with that. 320 00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:49,160 Speaker 4: We'll have a revolution. 321 00:17:49,599 --> 00:17:54,960 Speaker 2: So instead you just stealthily write some checks behind the scenes. 322 00:17:55,759 --> 00:17:58,799 Problem gone, and then onto the next disaster. 323 00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:01,200 Speaker 4: Right, I think that's likely true. 324 00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:03,720 Speaker 3: And then you know, I was complaining about the opacity 325 00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:07,799 of the private credit space, but I think that that 326 00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:13,079 was probably very intentional one because it helps them on 327 00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:16,799 in the good days because they just have less requirements, 328 00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:19,160 less constraints. But I think to your point, it helps 329 00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:21,480 them on the bad days where it lets these backdoor 330 00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:24,680 bailouts happen in the darkness so that the public can't 331 00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:25,640 get enraged about it. 332 00:18:26,279 --> 00:18:29,119 Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's exactly what's going to happen here. I 333 00:18:29,119 --> 00:18:31,599 don't know, they're not in the US government is not 334 00:18:31,759 --> 00:18:34,960 letting Black Rock take a hit. And this is the 335 00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:41,000 same exact thing as seven eight nine, where initially it's 336 00:18:41,079 --> 00:18:45,079 the sub subprime, then it goes to the subprime, then 337 00:18:45,119 --> 00:18:47,519 it goes to the alta, and then it goes to 338 00:18:47,799 --> 00:18:52,519 prime and to a lesser degree. But it was a contagion. 339 00:18:52,799 --> 00:18:56,799 It's a contagion, yep. And all this private financing, and 340 00:18:56,839 --> 00:18:59,359 then the people who are taking advantage of it, the 341 00:18:59,440 --> 00:19:04,680 mid size companies that are basically zombie companies, they can't 342 00:19:04,720 --> 00:19:10,119 go on anymore if this private credit market seizes up, right. 343 00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:11,960 Speaker 3: And so I think that's totally true. Now, let me 344 00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:14,400 make a statement that might not be popular here. 345 00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:16,240 Speaker 4: So you know, I. 346 00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:24,799 Speaker 3: I interview lots of professional investors. I was interviewing Jan Vneck, 347 00:19:25,039 --> 00:19:29,119 you know, the CEO of X Funds a quarter ago, 348 00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:31,519 and he was basically, you know, pointing out some of 349 00:19:31,519 --> 00:19:34,119 the troubles in private equity and said, hey, you know, 350 00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:36,680 you should you should maybe be a little bit cautious here. 351 00:19:37,559 --> 00:19:40,920 He said, I like these business development corporations, but I 352 00:19:40,960 --> 00:19:43,799 don't think they're I don't think they're going to fare 353 00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:44,880 very well here. 354 00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:45,559 Speaker 4: For a while. 355 00:19:46,039 --> 00:19:48,160 Speaker 3: And he, you know, was proven to be very true. 356 00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:51,559 You know, he and others I talked to are now saying, hey, 357 00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:53,759 you know a lot of these things are being priced 358 00:19:53,799 --> 00:19:56,640 as if they're going out of business, and for a 359 00:19:56,680 --> 00:19:58,599 lot of these a lot of these funds that they're 360 00:19:58,680 --> 00:20:03,799 highly likely not going to just from a management and 361 00:20:03,839 --> 00:20:08,200 diversification standpoint. And remember with credit, you know, you you 362 00:20:08,240 --> 00:20:11,119 the only risk you have is the existential credit of 363 00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:14,960 the company dying. As long as it can survive and 364 00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:17,000 make its payments, you know, you're going to get paid 365 00:20:17,039 --> 00:20:19,920 on your on the debt that you're holding. So the 366 00:20:20,319 --> 00:20:22,960 his point in others is, hey, we may actually be 367 00:20:23,079 --> 00:20:26,240 starting to see some pretty good valuations in some of 368 00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:28,240 these private credit funds that are kind of getting left 369 00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:32,400 for dead right now. And so while I am standing 370 00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:34,559 hip to hip with you and railing against you know, 371 00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:38,200 kind of the pernicious effect I think they have on 372 00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:41,359 the system. Overall, some of them may actually be proved, 373 00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:43,680 may prove to be some pretty good investments right now, 374 00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:45,799 if we're looking forward, you know, if. 375 00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:47,480 Speaker 4: We want to check in again in three to six months, 376 00:20:48,039 --> 00:20:48,599 I agree. 377 00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:52,519 Speaker 2: But I remember at the start of the financial collapse, 378 00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:56,480 I went to a talk in the ninety second Street 379 00:20:56,480 --> 00:21:00,160 Why in New York City, this guy Ralph Winter, who 380 00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:02,200 ran the Winter Fund. I don't even know if it's 381 00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:05,559 still around or dot. And at that point, like the 382 00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:08,759 banks had been clobbered, City Bank was trading it like 383 00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:13,759 single digits. And one of the people asked Ralph, said, 384 00:21:14,079 --> 00:21:18,559 is City Bank a goodbye now? And he said, look, 385 00:21:19,319 --> 00:21:22,480 if you look at their financial statements, there could be 386 00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:29,119 footnote number one eighty seven, which you have no idea 387 00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:34,039 what it means because they're so opaque, and that one 388 00:21:34,079 --> 00:21:37,519 footnote could blow up the entire bank. So is it 389 00:21:37,559 --> 00:21:39,920 a good deal? Well, yeah, it's a good deal from 390 00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:43,240 the standpoint you know that the government isn't going to 391 00:21:43,359 --> 00:21:46,119 let City Bank go bust. They might let the layman, 392 00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:50,640 but not City Bank because that touches too many individual 393 00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:54,160 and savers, not just investors, but savers. 394 00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:56,039 Speaker 4: We could very. 395 00:21:55,839 --> 00:21:58,279 Speaker 2: Well be in the same situation now where those funds 396 00:21:58,319 --> 00:22:01,640 look attractive now, in six more months, they could look 397 00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:03,240 way more attractive, couldn't they. 398 00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:04,000 Speaker 4: They could. 399 00:22:04,079 --> 00:22:07,559 Speaker 3: And honestly, Kerrie, I mean, this is a multifactorial world 400 00:22:07,559 --> 00:22:09,519 we live in, but I think kind of the big 401 00:22:09,559 --> 00:22:13,640 factor right now is what happens with the war here. 402 00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:18,759 You know, at my conference, the keynote speaker was the 403 00:22:18,759 --> 00:22:22,000 great Lacy Hunt, great economist Lacy Hunt, and you know, 404 00:22:22,079 --> 00:22:25,640 Lacy sort of you know, hit a number of slides 405 00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:31,359 that showed how the economy was challenged, we'll say, heading 406 00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:34,519 into this year anyways, you know, looking at things like 407 00:22:34,519 --> 00:22:36,559 the decline of the savings rate, looking at weakness in 408 00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:40,720 the labor market, looking at contraction in the flows of 409 00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:44,960 actual shipped goods, factory capacity Utilization's got a whole bunch 410 00:22:45,039 --> 00:22:49,119 of factors here that basically show an economy that is stumbling. 411 00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:52,279 We'll put it that way. Then he said, okay, and 412 00:22:52,279 --> 00:22:54,640 then you put on top of that the stresses of 413 00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:57,279 an oil price shock is like, you know, that's like 414 00:22:57,400 --> 00:22:59,960 taking you know, a drunk house stumbling home and take 415 00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:03,079 a baseball bat to his knees. Right, So what he 416 00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:06,880 did is he compared the previous major oil price shocks 417 00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:09,599 over the past fifty years and then what happened afterwards, 418 00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:15,119 And in most cases, the economy was similarly challenged before 419 00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:18,279 those oil price shocks hit. And the Crib notes is 420 00:23:18,279 --> 00:23:21,480 is that nothing good happens when you add an oil 421 00:23:21,519 --> 00:23:25,960 price shock onto an economy that is not robust. So 422 00:23:26,319 --> 00:23:29,680 you know, you get guys like Lacey ed Doud a 423 00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:34,359 few others who are like, oh my god, like definitely 424 00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:37,440 I'm making my forecast even more pessimistic given what's going 425 00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:39,880 on right now. But of course the big factor there 426 00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:41,839 is is okay, but is this a price shock that 427 00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:44,160 lasts for, you know, a couple of weeks a month, 428 00:23:44,599 --> 00:23:47,319 or is this a price shock that gets extended at 429 00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:51,440 another six, nine, twelve months? Right, We don't know yet, 430 00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:53,319 And it's going to totally depend on how long the 431 00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:55,839 war goes on, and it's going to depend on how 432 00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:59,559 much damage is done long term damage has done infrastructure 433 00:23:59,559 --> 00:24:05,000 in the Gulf right now, So so first and foremost, 434 00:24:05,079 --> 00:24:07,160 I think that's really what's going to depend and the 435 00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:09,799 longer that goes on, not just private credit, Kerry, I 436 00:24:09,799 --> 00:24:12,680 mean everything is going to get tracked, and that that 437 00:24:12,759 --> 00:24:15,119 could be we could be looking back in a year 438 00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:18,279 and saying, well, that was the clear catalyst that brought 439 00:24:18,319 --> 00:24:21,079 on the next recession and the next big market correction, 440 00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:22,960 all that stuff, and if it lasts for long enough, 441 00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:23,720 it will. 442 00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:27,599 Speaker 4: I think you can have a I'm not. 443 00:24:27,559 --> 00:24:29,920 Speaker 3: A geopolitical strategist, so take everything with a big grain 444 00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:30,319 of salt. 445 00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:30,640 Speaker 4: I do. 446 00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:34,519 Speaker 3: I have interviewed a couple for the show. I would 447 00:24:34,559 --> 00:24:40,720 just say, don't put a negative probability on the war 448 00:24:40,799 --> 00:24:44,759 being over sooner rather than later. And the reason for 449 00:24:44,839 --> 00:24:46,880 that is, and I know a lot of people don't 450 00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:49,519 like this is you know, this isn't a popular opinion 451 00:24:49,559 --> 00:24:52,480 with everybody. But if you look at President Trump's track 452 00:24:52,519 --> 00:24:57,680 record in any way, he's willing to gamble, but in 453 00:24:57,720 --> 00:25:01,279 many ways what he is playing for is better than 454 00:25:01,319 --> 00:25:03,720 what I had before. Right, So he might put out 455 00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:06,000 these grandiose statements of what he's trying to accomplish, but 456 00:25:06,039 --> 00:25:07,839 really I think always looking for is just a better 457 00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:10,319 situation than I had before. And so, for example, when 458 00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:12,799 he went in to take out Maduro, I think his 459 00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:14,680 thinking was, all right, I'm going to try the strike. 460 00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:17,640 If it fails, I'm no worse often I was before 461 00:25:17,799 --> 00:25:20,119 Sam Guy's in office, and that was there the day before. 462 00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:24,519 Didn't get worse. If I take him out and the 463 00:25:25,039 --> 00:25:26,960 new regime plays ball with me a little bit better, 464 00:25:27,039 --> 00:25:28,680 well that's better than what we had before. 465 00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:30,559 Speaker 4: Everybody, you know, I got what I needed. 466 00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:35,200 Speaker 2: I've been following Trump since his first real estate deal 467 00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:37,640 in New York City the common way. 468 00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:39,799 Speaker 4: You're super familiar with this, Yeah. 469 00:25:39,519 --> 00:25:44,480 Speaker 2: So, and I've actually called every single thing that happened. 470 00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:47,279 The only thing I thought was going to happen was 471 00:25:47,319 --> 00:25:51,880 a cessation of the Russia Ukraine War. And it's kind 472 00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:54,680 of like yesterday's news. You just don't hear much about 473 00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:58,319 it anymore. It's like, imagine if they had a war 474 00:25:58,680 --> 00:25:59,519 and nobody came. 475 00:25:59,799 --> 00:26:01,960 Speaker 4: But I knew. 476 00:26:02,759 --> 00:26:04,400 Speaker 2: I knew that he was going to take out Maduro 477 00:26:04,519 --> 00:26:08,559 because he really summed up his philosophy in the art 478 00:26:08,599 --> 00:26:09,160 of the deal. 479 00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:11,440 Speaker 4: And that is when I. 480 00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:15,480 Speaker 2: Look at a deal, I don't look at what can 481 00:26:15,519 --> 00:26:18,160 go right. I look at what can go wrong. I 482 00:26:18,279 --> 00:26:22,000 always look at my downside first, because I know that 483 00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:24,720 the upside of the deal will take care of itself, 484 00:26:25,559 --> 00:26:28,920 and the downside deal of pulling out Maduro. If it 485 00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:33,759 didn't work, Eh, wasn't so bad. The downside of blowing 486 00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:36,960 up narco terrorist boats, if that's what they really are, 487 00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:39,440 and I assume they are, but we don't really know, 488 00:26:41,039 --> 00:26:47,400 you know, downside, not so bad. Downside going into Iran. Yeah, well, 489 00:26:47,519 --> 00:26:51,119 maybe I won't be able to get regime change, but 490 00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:53,960 I will so cripple them that they'll wish that they 491 00:26:54,039 --> 00:26:59,559 had regime change. So each move that he's made has 492 00:26:59,599 --> 00:27:02,319 always been with an eye to the downside, not to 493 00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:05,880 the upside. Necessarily, Yes, if it worked out, the upside 494 00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:09,000 would be great. And I go back to the first 495 00:27:09,079 --> 00:27:15,319 triumph of his second term, which was re retaking or 496 00:27:16,039 --> 00:27:20,039 reimposing US influence over the Panama Canal. Now, yeah, that 497 00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:23,160 was the first thing that happened. I knew exactly what 498 00:27:23,319 --> 00:27:27,640 the path was the second I saw that, because you know, 499 00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:32,960 from this geopolitical standpoint, strategic standpoint, you have to have 500 00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:36,640 the canal, right, because that's the gateway and that protects 501 00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:41,799 the entire hemisphere. But it also made clear that Venezuela 502 00:27:41,839 --> 00:27:44,440 was going And then he had a meeting with G 503 00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:49,359 and G actually did cut back somewhat on fentanyl trafficking, 504 00:27:50,039 --> 00:27:53,799 and I knew there was a deal that basically Russia 505 00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:57,839 and China, but particularly China, we're basically going to look 506 00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:03,440 the other way when we hit Venezuela and Iran. Now 507 00:28:04,559 --> 00:28:07,640 China will rue the day they ever let us go 508 00:28:07,759 --> 00:28:08,759 back into Iran. 509 00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:10,400 Speaker 4: But you know. 510 00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:15,319 Speaker 2: It's gone exactly. I wrote an article about it. Eight 511 00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:20,039 calls I made since May of last year that all 512 00:28:20,079 --> 00:28:22,240 came to pass. The only one I was wrong about 513 00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:27,200 was ending the Ukraine War, but it actually worked to 514 00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:32,680 the benefit of Trump's strategy not ending it because it'll 515 00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:36,039 mobilized them and they couldn't do anything about Iran or Cuba. 516 00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:39,519 I also called Cuba almost to the day. There was 517 00:28:39,599 --> 00:28:41,960 no question it was going to happen. So I will 518 00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:44,720 take the call and say that Silver we're going to 519 00:28:44,799 --> 00:28:48,759 be through this thing probably the next eight weeks, mid June, 520 00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:52,440 and not that we'll live happily ever after. Because one 521 00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:54,599 thing I wanted to talk to you about, and this 522 00:28:54,759 --> 00:28:56,640 was ahead of all this stuff kind of got away 523 00:28:56,640 --> 00:29:00,680 with it. What about AI All right, I know you 524 00:29:00,799 --> 00:29:03,359 use it, I know you're into it. What do you 525 00:29:03,559 --> 00:29:08,440 see it's potential impact, especially on the white collar economy. 526 00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:11,759 Speaker 3: Yeah, So I so want to talk about that with you, 527 00:29:11,839 --> 00:29:14,039 and I have very strong opinions. If I can, let 528 00:29:14,079 --> 00:29:16,319 me just sure bow and what we were talking about, 529 00:29:16,319 --> 00:29:19,839 and then we'll jump topics. So it sounds like you 530 00:29:19,839 --> 00:29:24,640 see through the lens that I'm looking through. Absolutely. And again, look, folks, 531 00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:27,680 this could totally go south. It could totally go a 532 00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:29,839 different way than I'm predicting. So I'm not saying I've 533 00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:32,799 got it. I'm just saying, don't discount this. I think Carrie, 534 00:29:33,039 --> 00:29:34,839 who is a greater student of Trump than I am, 535 00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:38,319 is saying, hey, this is this is probably the likely probability. 536 00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:44,440 But two things, so, uh, you know, first off, when 537 00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:52,000 you when you tile these things together that you mentioned, right, Panama, Panama, Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, 538 00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:56,680 you know, yes, there's immediate benefits we get from each 539 00:29:56,720 --> 00:30:00,640 one of those. But also they help us in securing 540 00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:03,799 America's interests versus China. I think it's a big part 541 00:30:03,799 --> 00:30:08,200 of the sure I have spoken to a Chinese analyst. 542 00:30:08,279 --> 00:30:11,440 That's another interview I did last week, which, folks, if 543 00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:12,759 you don't know a lot about China, ad how do 544 00:30:12,799 --> 00:30:13,839 they recommend you go listen to that? 545 00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:16,839 Speaker 4: I learned a ton we'll put that link up in 546 00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:17,920 the show notes. 547 00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:21,440 Speaker 3: Oh great, thanks that analyst, a guy named Peter Alexander 548 00:30:21,519 --> 00:30:26,279 is a westernerbody's lived in China for the years. He 549 00:30:26,039 --> 00:30:29,240 he is a high belief that basically China and the 550 00:30:29,319 --> 00:30:32,960 US have had this backdoor agreement where they've basically said, 551 00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:35,720 you know what, we're going to kind of carve up 552 00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:37,960 the world a bit. You know, America will will let 553 00:30:38,079 --> 00:30:39,799 you kind of do them in a row doctrine two 554 00:30:39,880 --> 00:30:43,640 do oh thing if you let us achieve you know, 555 00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:48,119 our aspirations more on our side of the world. So obviously, 556 00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:50,599 you know, a lot of this sort of plays to that. 557 00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:52,160 A lot of it's going on place to that, and 558 00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:56,400 also somewhat increases the US's bargaining power in those discussions 559 00:30:56,799 --> 00:30:59,720 because remember, we don't really we don't. Is the US 560 00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:02,279 don't depend on an oil coming out of the golf. 561 00:31:03,000 --> 00:31:05,519 We care about it because the oil price is a 562 00:31:05,519 --> 00:31:09,400 global commodity, but we don't necessarily care so much about 563 00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:12,480 the barrels that go out of there. China absolutely does, right, 564 00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:16,359 So it's all part of that, It's all part of 565 00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:18,680 that big grand game. Also, one other thing too, is 566 00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:22,240 carry one of the upsides of this is. I mean, 567 00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:25,200 some people think, look, Trump wants to just you know, 568 00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:29,200 his goal is to get rid of the regime, take 569 00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:31,880 over carg Island and have the US can you know, 570 00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:34,279 start to play a role and controlling a flow of 571 00:31:34,319 --> 00:31:36,640 oil out of there. I don't know if that's the case. 572 00:31:36,759 --> 00:31:39,079 I don't necessarily think that's the case. But we'll see 573 00:31:39,079 --> 00:31:44,119 what happens. But even if this war ends tomorrow, there's 574 00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:47,119 going to be a premium, a risk premium now put 575 00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:49,599 on oil coming out of the Golf, oil and gas 576 00:31:49,599 --> 00:31:52,000 coming out of the Golf that wasn't there before. And 577 00:31:52,079 --> 00:31:54,799 so you're already starting to see a bunch of countries say, 578 00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:57,319 you know what, I was buying the cheap oil out 579 00:31:57,319 --> 00:31:58,880 of the golf and the cheap gas out of the Golf. 580 00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:01,400 I think I want to buy it from a safer 581 00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:03,640 country now, a country that I'm not going to have 582 00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:07,839 to worry about it going into you know, getting into 583 00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:10,720 kinetic quagmire. I'm not going to worry about my tankers 584 00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:13,720 getting shot at or whatever. And so just last week, 585 00:32:13,759 --> 00:32:16,640 the administration announced that it signed I like fifty six 586 00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:21,480 billion in oil and gas contracts with Indo Pacific countries. 587 00:32:21,759 --> 00:32:23,480 So they're already starting to do that. You know, if 588 00:32:23,519 --> 00:32:26,759 you're Japan, it takes you twenty five days to get 589 00:32:26,799 --> 00:32:30,079 a tanker from the Persian Gulf, it only takes you 590 00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:32,519 eight to get it from Alaska. And you can be 591 00:32:32,559 --> 00:32:35,119 pretty sure that Alaska is not going to be embroiled 592 00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:38,319 in some you know, multinational, you. 593 00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:38,920 Speaker 4: Know war zone. 594 00:32:39,319 --> 00:32:43,039 Speaker 3: So there are additional long term benefits that could come 595 00:32:43,039 --> 00:32:46,079 to America and some of its allies from what's going 596 00:32:46,119 --> 00:32:47,720 on in the golf right now that are second or 597 00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:49,400 third orders. That are effects that I don't think a 598 00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:50,680 lot of people are thinking about right now. 599 00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:55,160 Speaker 2: And as long as you mentioned Alaska, let's talk about Canada. 600 00:32:55,960 --> 00:32:57,039 Speaker 4: It's fracturing now. 601 00:32:57,160 --> 00:32:59,920 Speaker 2: I don't think we're actually going to march into Alberta 602 00:33:00,119 --> 00:33:02,880 in Saskatchewan, right yeah. I don't think we're really going 603 00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:06,240 to annex them as states. I think they will become 604 00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:12,319 semi autonomous regions of Canada and they will adopt the 605 00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:15,400 US dollar. And think about what that does. It gives 606 00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:20,720 us a corridor from Alaska down to the Upper Midwest, 607 00:33:20,759 --> 00:33:24,680 the oil, everything else. And then when we follow that 608 00:33:24,839 --> 00:33:28,559 down and we think about what could potentially happen in Mexico, 609 00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:32,279 we have what I call the North American Resource Corridor 610 00:33:32,759 --> 00:33:35,000 goes straight down the US into Mexico. 611 00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:36,640 Speaker 4: That's the gate. 612 00:33:36,759 --> 00:33:39,359 Speaker 2: That's the thing, And we don't have to talk about 613 00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:40,799 AI and everything it's going to do. 614 00:33:41,039 --> 00:33:42,559 Speaker 4: I'm happy to go there because I've got. 615 00:33:43,119 --> 00:33:47,519 Speaker 2: But what is happening now that nobody out there sees 616 00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:53,400 is AI is responsible for large amounts of decisions that 617 00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:55,119 are taking place in the government. 618 00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:55,440 Speaker 4: Now. 619 00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:58,400 Speaker 2: It's not that it's making the decision that Trump just 620 00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:03,000 says AI, what I call a Trump GPT, what should 621 00:34:03,039 --> 00:34:05,400 I do? And it gives him an answer and he says, okay, 622 00:34:05,440 --> 00:34:09,559 do that. No, it's like you use it, you know, 623 00:34:09,639 --> 00:34:11,360 you have to. It has to get to know you, 624 00:34:11,360 --> 00:34:14,880 your decision making style, your language. Although I can't imagine 625 00:34:15,599 --> 00:34:18,480 a Trump GPT with language, but that's got to be 626 00:34:18,519 --> 00:34:23,199 a trip in itself. So the point is AI. The 627 00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:29,800 US is at the forefront of AI governance, meaning using 628 00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:34,440 AI to adjust the governance model. Bring it, because we 629 00:34:34,559 --> 00:34:40,519 basically got like twenty first century technology infrastructure, and we 630 00:34:40,599 --> 00:34:44,719 got an eighteen sixties government right it. You know, they 631 00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:49,360 got some iPads and some workstations, but they basically do 632 00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:50,599 everything the same way. 633 00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:51,840 Speaker 4: That's changing. 634 00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:56,679 Speaker 2: And I don't think really anybody understands this, that it's 635 00:34:56,719 --> 00:34:58,119 actually happening this way. 636 00:34:58,639 --> 00:35:01,199 Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think, like all things with AI, it's 637 00:35:01,239 --> 00:35:05,239 going to happen way faster than people expect, and probably 638 00:35:05,280 --> 00:35:10,559 already is. Just read an article this morning about how pallenteers, 639 00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:18,360 you know, AI contributions to the strike decisions that have 640 00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:21,119 been made in US around war sort of started off 641 00:35:21,119 --> 00:35:25,320 as a beta project and very quickly became just the 642 00:35:25,360 --> 00:35:27,840 general operating policy. It was like, oh my gosh, this 643 00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:31,079 thing is so much more accurate than we've been in 644 00:35:31,159 --> 00:35:33,960 previous conflicts that they're now saying, we get to scale 645 00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:35,760 this to everything, right, And I think that's kind of 646 00:35:35,760 --> 00:35:37,719 just one example of what you're talking about. 647 00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:41,199 Speaker 2: Hey, I can tell you in the law like the 648 00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:44,159 Billable hour is going to be a thing of the past. 649 00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:47,400 I'm involved in a lawsuit right now, kind of like 650 00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:50,679 a little hobby. But we call the book. I should 651 00:35:50,719 --> 00:35:52,960 show you the book. I think you'll get a kick 652 00:35:52,960 --> 00:35:58,360 out of it. It's called America America's Great Parking Scam. 653 00:35:58,559 --> 00:36:01,880 You've been robbed and you can actually scan that QR code. 654 00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:04,639 It will take you to parkscam dot com. You can 655 00:36:04,679 --> 00:36:09,639 buy the book, whatever. But I'm up against six municipalities 656 00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:16,159 and three app companies parking app companies because I just 657 00:36:16,199 --> 00:36:18,119 got fed up with the Grift, And I said, you know, 658 00:36:18,559 --> 00:36:21,719 I've been bitching about the Grift my whole life at them, 659 00:36:21,920 --> 00:36:25,199 my whole life. And if I don't do anything now 660 00:36:25,199 --> 00:36:27,480 that I actually can do it and I have the time, 661 00:36:28,159 --> 00:36:32,000 then I'm full of it. You know, everything I said 662 00:36:32,039 --> 00:36:35,239 is bull if I don't actually take the chance when 663 00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:38,840 I see the opening of a system that is completely corrupt, 664 00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:46,039 it's gone way way past the bounds of governmental propriety. 665 00:36:46,639 --> 00:36:51,000 So you know, in the meantime, I've gone asymmetric warfare 666 00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:55,119 with these guys. I have six or seven regulatory complaints 667 00:36:55,159 --> 00:36:59,320 and they're real, and I've got a lawsuit and one 668 00:36:59,400 --> 00:37:03,679 hundred paid complaint and I can move so quick and 669 00:37:03,719 --> 00:37:08,239 the billable hour people then even the regular lawyers who 670 00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:11,639 don't use it, they're like trying to catch up, trying 671 00:37:11,679 --> 00:37:14,320 to think of what is his next move going to be? 672 00:37:14,719 --> 00:37:19,280 Speaker 3: Okay, because you're using AI on your end, Yeah, yeah, 673 00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:23,119 you know, And it's interesting. So first off, kudos to 674 00:37:23,159 --> 00:37:25,960 you for for standing on your integrity there, Carrie and 675 00:37:26,440 --> 00:37:27,239 fighting the system. 676 00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:28,079 Speaker 4: You see is corrupt. 677 00:37:29,079 --> 00:37:31,480 Speaker 3: You know, there's one of the things I really appreciate 678 00:37:31,559 --> 00:37:34,400 about what's happened in the past year and a half 679 00:37:34,599 --> 00:37:41,840 has been the we've tipped into common knowledge that there 680 00:37:41,920 --> 00:37:45,079 is a ton of waste, fraud and abuse in government spending. 681 00:37:45,159 --> 00:37:45,239 Speaker 2: Right. 682 00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:48,119 Speaker 3: I mean, we all kind of generally knew it. You 683 00:37:48,159 --> 00:37:51,119 think it didn't really we couldn't really scope at or 684 00:37:51,159 --> 00:37:53,840 size it. There was no target to go after the 685 00:37:53,880 --> 00:37:56,400 whole doze thing. What folks, whether you liked it or not, 686 00:37:57,079 --> 00:37:59,480 I think it did a really good service to our 687 00:37:59,599 --> 00:38:02,079 right side by putting this conversation front and center and 688 00:38:02,159 --> 00:38:04,880 your point about AI. I actually have a lot of 689 00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:08,719 optimism that it's going to be a lot harder to 690 00:38:08,800 --> 00:38:11,440 conduct this type of waste fraud and abuse in a 691 00:38:11,480 --> 00:38:17,239 world where the government income statement is audited by AI. Now, 692 00:38:17,280 --> 00:38:19,400 it may take us, you know, more years than I'd 693 00:38:19,440 --> 00:38:21,559 like for us to get there, but my guess is 694 00:38:21,559 --> 00:38:23,639 we're going to get there sooner than most people probably 695 00:38:23,639 --> 00:38:25,920 expect we could, and it's going to be just really 696 00:38:25,960 --> 00:38:28,800 hard for the type of abuses that we're hearing about, 697 00:38:28,840 --> 00:38:33,440 whether it's the daycare said that the leaders's in Minnesota, 698 00:38:33,559 --> 00:38:37,840 or whether it's the hospice in LA And those are 699 00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:40,119 just you know, two examples of stuff I'm sure doing 700 00:38:40,360 --> 00:38:41,559 across all over the country. 701 00:38:41,639 --> 00:38:42,639 Speaker 4: Yeah, so it. 702 00:38:42,880 --> 00:38:47,159 Speaker 2: Is an epicenter of Medicare medicaid fraud here. I mean, forget, 703 00:38:47,199 --> 00:38:48,760 I got so many old people. 704 00:38:48,920 --> 00:38:53,000 Speaker 3: Well exactly, And look, the government is always going to 705 00:38:53,039 --> 00:38:55,519 spend more money than it should. But I finger to 706 00:38:55,559 --> 00:38:58,840 the wind. My kind of guesstimate is if we could 707 00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:02,639 magically get rid of the fraud, we probably wouldn't have 708 00:39:02,679 --> 00:39:03,199 a deficit. 709 00:39:03,679 --> 00:39:04,599 Speaker 4: Like it's it's that. 710 00:39:04,840 --> 00:39:08,920 Speaker 2: Large, all right, no question, I've always said. And the 711 00:39:08,960 --> 00:39:12,599 government wastes a third to fifty percent of the money 712 00:39:12,599 --> 00:39:16,559 that we send it, and no greater target than the 713 00:39:16,599 --> 00:39:22,800 Pentagon you know, the Pentagon Lake is Lalla Land. But 714 00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:27,239 it's every it's every program because like the New Deal 715 00:39:27,559 --> 00:39:32,280 wasn't built on fraud, the Great Society was built upon fraud. 716 00:39:32,800 --> 00:39:37,679 It was designed to be fraudulent from its very inception. Anyways, 717 00:39:37,880 --> 00:39:39,440 we've been at it so long. I could go on 718 00:39:39,519 --> 00:39:42,360 another hour, but I don't have the time. Just tell 719 00:39:42,440 --> 00:39:44,800 us again where we find you these days? How we 720 00:39:44,840 --> 00:39:46,039 connect with you on the web. 721 00:39:46,559 --> 00:39:49,440 Speaker 3: Sure, so you can go to thoughtful money dot com 722 00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:51,599 and you know what you'll find there is you'll find 723 00:39:51,639 --> 00:39:53,920 my interviews, which is I do, like what Carrie does, 724 00:39:53,920 --> 00:39:56,440 I interview. I get you five interviews a week of 725 00:39:56,519 --> 00:40:00,519 interviewing the top minds and investing. But one of the 726 00:40:00,519 --> 00:40:02,039 things that I do is I try to make that 727 00:40:02,119 --> 00:40:05,480 information actionable and connect people with ways to take that 728 00:40:05,559 --> 00:40:08,440 information and then actually apply it to their imply it 729 00:40:08,559 --> 00:40:11,760 intelligently to their investing decisions. And so if you're a 730 00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:15,320 DOI investor, we've got DIY solutions to refer you to. 731 00:40:15,519 --> 00:40:16,320 Speaker 4: If you'd rather. 732 00:40:16,199 --> 00:40:20,360 Speaker 3: Have a live financial professional advisor, you can, you can 733 00:40:20,840 --> 00:40:23,360 talk with them, meet with them for free. We've got 734 00:40:23,360 --> 00:40:25,440 solutions for buying precious metals. There's just a whole bunch 735 00:40:25,480 --> 00:40:28,440 of other solutions you'll find there at that same site. Carrie, 736 00:40:28,480 --> 00:40:30,519 Can I talk for sixty seconds about that AI thing? 737 00:40:30,719 --> 00:40:31,159 Speaker 4: But sure? 738 00:40:31,239 --> 00:40:31,400 Speaker 2: Sure? 739 00:40:31,480 --> 00:40:34,400 Speaker 3: So this is for when we have more time in 740 00:40:34,400 --> 00:40:38,599 the future. But as optimistic as I am about what 741 00:40:38,679 --> 00:40:42,840 AI may hopefully be able to do for us, I 742 00:40:42,920 --> 00:40:46,960 have huge concerns for it in the practicality of its rollout. 743 00:40:47,199 --> 00:40:49,280 I think the rollout is going to happen way faster 744 00:40:49,400 --> 00:40:53,559 than we're ready for, and the job's displacement is going 745 00:40:53,599 --> 00:40:57,119 to that job's displacement rate. I fear is going to 746 00:40:57,119 --> 00:41:01,000 totally overwhelm our ability to repurpose that placed labor into 747 00:41:01,079 --> 00:41:05,320 additional constructive, productive use. And so I don't see how 748 00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:09,519 we avoid a massive underemployment or unemployment problem that could 749 00:41:09,639 --> 00:41:15,000 last for years, and the cost of that societal injury 750 00:41:15,360 --> 00:41:17,800 may actually be higher than the immediate benefits we get 751 00:41:17,800 --> 00:41:19,960 from the AI. But that's something we can talk about 752 00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:21,400 in the future. I just didn't want folks to think 753 00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:23,199 I was a total AI fanboy. 754 00:41:24,039 --> 00:41:27,159 Speaker 2: No, No, I see the same dangers as do you, 755 00:41:28,599 --> 00:41:31,760 but I don't really see any way around it. That's 756 00:41:31,960 --> 00:41:35,519 like the scary part. Anyway, we'll pick up next time. 757 00:41:35,760 --> 00:41:38,760 Let's do this in a few weeks. Be well, thanks 758 00:41:38,800 --> 00:41:40,920 for coming on Real Pleasure, Thanks for having me. 759 00:41:40,960 --> 00:41:45,280 Speaker 1: On, Garry, Thanks for listening to carry Letz's Financial Survival Network, 760 00:41:45,440 --> 00:41:49,360 your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go 761 00:41:49,440 --> 00:41:55,360 to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more 762 00:41:55,440 --> 00:41:56,079 than ever