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<v Speaker 1>Joel Larsguard How to Money his show Sunday twelve pm

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<v Speaker 1>to two pm. His social address is at how to

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<v Speaker 1>Money Joel Joel.

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<v Speaker 2>Good morning, morning Bill.

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<v Speaker 1>I have not seen this happen for a while, homeowners

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<v Speaker 1>finding themselves underwater. Now, I have not heard that phrase

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<v Speaker 1>for a while. Let's explain what's going on, only you

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<v Speaker 1>explain what's going on and how the market has changed.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so this is you're right.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, this is one of those things where in

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<v Speaker 3>the Great Recession, the aftermath of the Great Recession, the

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<v Speaker 3>amount of homeowners that were underwater was kind of astronomical, right,

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<v Speaker 3>And so we saw a lot of foreclosures, a lot

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<v Speaker 3>of short sales, and it was I mean, it led

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<v Speaker 3>to just a tanking of the housing market across the

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<v Speaker 3>United States, and right now, like we've had this essentially

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<v Speaker 3>since two thousand and nine, and just you know, prices

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<v Speaker 3>being so stink and low, it wasn't even funny people

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<v Speaker 3>slowly buying into the housing market. And then you know,

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<v Speaker 3>just gradually prices increased over time. And then with the

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<v Speaker 3>during the pandemic, with what people wanted and desired out

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<v Speaker 3>of housing, the housing market just continued to take off

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<v Speaker 3>rates were still low, but then rates crept up and

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<v Speaker 3>prices were at an all time high. And so now

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<v Speaker 3>what we've started to see is the market become a

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<v Speaker 3>lot more stagnant. And then now the market has softened,

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<v Speaker 3>in particular in some of those cities and locations where

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<v Speaker 3>the price run ups were the highest, and that's leading

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<v Speaker 3>to not just the softening, but really to reduced asking

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<v Speaker 3>prices and fewer homeowners being able to sell. And if

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<v Speaker 3>you bought a home, it's in particular in the last

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<v Speaker 3>couple of years, you might find if you list it

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<v Speaker 3>you're getting less than what you paid for it, which

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<v Speaker 3>is a problem for a lot of people having to

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<v Speaker 3>bring money to the table when you sell it.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and perfect example is me, and that is because

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<v Speaker 1>I bought my home. I closed in December, literally last

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<v Speaker 1>week of December twenty twenty three. There were no properties

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<v Speaker 1>out there. I paid effectively top dollar, top of market,

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<v Speaker 1>didn't ask goodness, it wasn't a bidding war, and now

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<v Speaker 1>I could get my house.

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<v Speaker 4>For a whole lot less.

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<v Speaker 1>But it checked all the boxes that I wanted and

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<v Speaker 1>it was and I've never paid market, never paid.

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<v Speaker 4>Asking price in my life, and there it was.

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<v Speaker 3>And that's where a lot of people found themselves and

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<v Speaker 3>you mentioned even you know, the fact that a bunch

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<v Speaker 3>of people trying to buy the same property led to

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<v Speaker 3>bidding wars. Some people were paying fifty sixty, one hundred

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<v Speaker 3>plus thousand dollars more than the asking price because there

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<v Speaker 3>were dozens of people lined up to be the exact

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<v Speaker 3>same thing. That was kind of an anomaly, a rarity,

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<v Speaker 3>and it's I think it's good that we're starting to

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<v Speaker 3>see kind of the housing market peter out a little

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<v Speaker 3>bit because it was insane, right, anybody knows who wanted

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<v Speaker 3>to buy a house that it was truly ridiculous. And

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<v Speaker 3>I was just talking to some of the other day,

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<v Speaker 3>like about when I bought my first house, and I

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<v Speaker 3>feel for youngsters who want to buy their first house now,

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<v Speaker 3>who they're in their early twenties and they're saying it's time,

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<v Speaker 3>but wow, it's completely unaffordable. We're starting to see that change,

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<v Speaker 3>like what's going to happen with interest rates? As anybody's guess,

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<v Speaker 3>but I will say too, man, I.

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<v Speaker 2>Was proved right.

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<v Speaker 3>There was so much talk, especially from the real estate community,

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<v Speaker 3>well go ahead and buy the house, because real estate

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<v Speaker 3>only goes up in value and you know what rates.

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<v Speaker 3>Interest rates are going to go down, you'll be able

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<v Speaker 3>to refinance. You'll be in the best of both worlds

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<v Speaker 3>by having a lower interest rate and having that locked

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<v Speaker 3>in low price that you paid for the home. But

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<v Speaker 3>in some of these markets we're seeing, you know, three

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<v Speaker 3>four seven percent drops in home prices, especially in places

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<v Speaker 3>like Texas and Florida where prices just went insane and

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<v Speaker 3>if you had to have to get out and quick

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<v Speaker 3>in short order. This is just another another reason when

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<v Speaker 3>I talk about buying a home, you want to buy

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<v Speaker 3>that home for a minimum of seven years, likely ten,

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<v Speaker 3>because even if you over paid, time can heal that

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<v Speaker 3>wound a little bit. But yeah, if you if you

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<v Speaker 3>bought just a couple of years ago and you find

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<v Speaker 3>yourself having to sell, especially with real estate transaction.

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<v Speaker 2>Costs, it really could cost you a pretty penny.

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<v Speaker 1>And if you're going to stay in the house, which

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<v Speaker 1>I'm going to, it becomes academic.

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<v Speaker 4>It really doesn't matter.

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<v Speaker 1>But still, you know, the house across the street is

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<v Speaker 1>going for less money and it's effectively the same house.

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<v Speaker 4>I want to blow my brains out.

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<v Speaker 1>The other thing it really is, and the other thing

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<v Speaker 1>I want to point or ask about is when do

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<v Speaker 1>you think we forget about two and a half three

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<v Speaker 1>percent money? Because of course that made home buying the

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<v Speaker 1>easiest thing in the world. And right now at five

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<v Speaker 1>five and a half percent, that's normal, that's sort of the.

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<v Speaker 4>Way it should be.

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<v Speaker 1>And at some point we you know, the two percent,

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<v Speaker 1>the three percent money disappears in the far reaches of

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<v Speaker 1>history and now we're in a normal market. Is that

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<v Speaker 1>affecting sales and buying home homes that people are still

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<v Speaker 1>thinking about three percent money?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean, I think the further we get away

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<v Speaker 3>from that reality that used to exist, the less people

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<v Speaker 3>are going to bank on.

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<v Speaker 2>That coming back.

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<v Speaker 3>And we've kind of have to pull out the binoculars

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<v Speaker 3>now to remember right that existing. And yeah, I do

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<v Speaker 3>think that that with every single month, every year that passes,

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<v Speaker 3>people are less just less thinking along those lines, and

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<v Speaker 3>these you know, six plus percent interest rates have become normal.

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<v Speaker 3>The only caveat to that is if you are one

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<v Speaker 3>of those people who has who did buy in the

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<v Speaker 3>twenty seventeens, twenty nineteens, twenty twenty ones even and you've

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<v Speaker 3>got that locked in low interest rate, I mean, I

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<v Speaker 3>think it just behooves those people to stay in that

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<v Speaker 3>property longer. So it will if rates tick down a

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<v Speaker 3>little bit, I think it will grease the wheels.

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<v Speaker 2>Of the housing market some.

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<v Speaker 3>But because I just think people are reticent, but they're

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<v Speaker 3>becoming more reticent or less reticent, I think, to sell

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<v Speaker 3>their homes the further along we get into this era

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<v Speaker 3>of higher rates, Joel.

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<v Speaker 1>Student loans, I mean, that is a whole world on

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<v Speaker 1>to itself.

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<v Speaker 4>If I'm not mistaken.

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<v Speaker 1>Student loans now are at one point two to one

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<v Speaker 1>point three trillion dollars. I mean, just astronomical amounts of money,

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<v Speaker 1>and paying them back has been a huge problem, to

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<v Speaker 1>the point where they're almost impossible to get out of

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<v Speaker 1>with bankruptcy.

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<v Speaker 4>The federal laws have changed. But what's going on with that?

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<v Speaker 4>What's the latest?

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<v Speaker 3>Oh man, it's I mean, it's a complete, complete mess.

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<v Speaker 3>And I think partly we set ourselves up for this

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<v Speaker 3>with just administrations having completely different takes on student loans.

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<v Speaker 3>The Biden administration was basically like, hey, let's make sure

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<v Speaker 3>that you guys don't have a payment. Understandably so in

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<v Speaker 3>those first days of COVID, but then for many, many

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<v Speaker 3>years there were just no student loan payments it's kind

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<v Speaker 3>of like an out of sight, out of mind thing.

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<v Speaker 3>And those promises of forgiveness or substantial forgiveness for a

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<v Speaker 3>bulk of student loan borrowers.

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<v Speaker 2>That didn't come to pass.

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<v Speaker 3>And so now we're in this era where payments are restarting,

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<v Speaker 3>and it's a much harsher the administration current administration is

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<v Speaker 3>taking much harsher action towards student loan borrowers, and they're saying, hey, actually,

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<v Speaker 3>you actually owe this money, and we're gonna restart payments.

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<v Speaker 2>And even the safe plan that the Biden.

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<v Speaker 3>Administration attempted to create to put into practice was declared

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<v Speaker 3>unconstitutional by the courts, and so this was going to

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<v Speaker 3>at least make repayments gentler. The payments, the monthly payments

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<v Speaker 3>for borrowers are going to be smaller, and so borrowers

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<v Speaker 3>are getting bills and what's happening is they're saying, wait

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<v Speaker 3>a second, I can't pay this. I'm not used to

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<v Speaker 3>paying this. I didn't know I was going to have

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<v Speaker 3>to pay this, And their credit scores are being docked,

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<v Speaker 3>and pretty soon we're going to start to see I

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<v Speaker 3>think a lot of student loan borrows not just have

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<v Speaker 3>their credit scores go down, but their wages garnished. I think,

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<v Speaker 3>in particular, come the beginning of next year, when it

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<v Speaker 3>comes tax refund time, we're going to see those artist

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<v Speaker 3>from a lot of student loan borrowers. So it's I

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<v Speaker 3>think things could get dire for a decent chunk of

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<v Speaker 3>student loan borrowers.

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<v Speaker 1>And here's the question. The Trump administration is effectively saying, Hey, guys,

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<v Speaker 1>you borrow the money, and the deal was you were

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<v Speaker 1>going to repay the money like everybody else does who

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<v Speaker 1>borrows money. Where did we get to the point where

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<v Speaker 1>somehow in people's mind student loans became grants.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean that's a good question too.

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<v Speaker 3>I think part of what happened, if you want to

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<v Speaker 3>get like even just a little more macro with this,

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<v Speaker 3>is we have incentivized. We have told people that college

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<v Speaker 3>is the only way forward, and then we have said,

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<v Speaker 3>and we're going to give seventeen year olds giant loans

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<v Speaker 3>to go get whatever degree they want, whether or not

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<v Speaker 3>that degree.

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<v Speaker 2>Is going to pay off or not.

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<v Speaker 3>And so what we've done is seen just this ballooning

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<v Speaker 3>student loan debt for higher and these colleges are saying,

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<v Speaker 3>you know what, Hey, if they can take out loans

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<v Speaker 3>for it. We're going to build fancy new buildings, We're

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<v Speaker 3>going to hire more administrators. The cost of college is

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<v Speaker 3>going to go up too, which means that the amount

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<v Speaker 3>of debt people have to take on to get that

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<v Speaker 3>degree has gone up. Think about what it costs to

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<v Speaker 3>go get a degree back in the seventies, eighties, and

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<v Speaker 3>nineties and what it costs to go get a degree now,

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<v Speaker 3>and it's we're talking a completely different world that we're

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<v Speaker 3>living in as people who want to go get a

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<v Speaker 3>college degree. So I mean, my advice as always to

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<v Speaker 3>young people who are planning on going to college is

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<v Speaker 3>to think long and hard about what you're going to major,

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<v Speaker 3>and think long and hard about where you're going in

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<v Speaker 3>the financial aid you're going to get, Because if you're

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<v Speaker 3>taking on more debt than what you're likely to earn

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<v Speaker 3>in your first year out of school, you could be

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<v Speaker 3>in for a long, hard slog trying to repay that debt.

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<v Speaker 3>And it might be Yeah, it might set you up

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<v Speaker 3>for misery for many decades.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>When people ask me, when kids ask me about college,

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<v Speaker 1>I go, don't go. Don't go find someplace else to

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<v Speaker 1>make a living. I mean when you look at the

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<v Speaker 1>benefits versus the cost. Matter of fact, I'm moving in

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<v Speaker 1>that direction with high school.

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<v Speaker 3>Don't know, yeah, don't go well, I mean, I will

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<v Speaker 3>say this, the facts still remained when you when you

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<v Speaker 3>look at the average person with a college degree makes

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<v Speaker 3>something like a million dollars more over the course of

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<v Speaker 3>their life than just the typical high school graduate.

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<v Speaker 2>So there is still a college premium.

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<v Speaker 4>Which wait, just down the line.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah yeah, I mean you have to be really really

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<v Speaker 3>careful about how much debt you take on and what

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<v Speaker 3>you get your degree in, because if you are, you

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<v Speaker 3>are likely to be one of those people who benefits

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<v Speaker 3>from going to college. But you're right, there's the other

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<v Speaker 3>side of the equation, where there is we have a

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<v Speaker 3>dearth of blue collar workers, and you can start your

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<v Speaker 3>own business. You can make big bucks working kind of

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<v Speaker 3>what a lot of people would consider an unsexy job.

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<v Speaker 3>You're not in the laptop class, but you're out there

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<v Speaker 3>pounded the pavement creating your own business, and you can

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<v Speaker 3>do incredibly well for yourself. Especially since we've said, hey,

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<v Speaker 3>we've pointed everybody in the direction of college. A lot

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<v Speaker 3>of people could benefit from wisely avoiding college. But starting

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<v Speaker 3>something on their own. And yeah, over the years, think

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<v Speaker 3>about even just the four years you spend to college

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<v Speaker 3>building your business instead, you know, ramping something up that

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<v Speaker 3>creates income versus taking on all that debth that you're

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<v Speaker 3>going to have to pay back in the future.

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<v Speaker 1>Now building your own business, you have to be fair.

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<v Speaker 1>It takes a lot of motivation, It takes a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of focus to be success. Not everybody and not everybody

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<v Speaker 1>has that, but still, I mean, if you look at

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<v Speaker 1>the amount of money you make immediately, it's yeah, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>you're absolutely right. I mean, you know, I tell my kids.

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<v Speaker 1>One is going for her master's degree and I say,

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<v Speaker 1>what are you doing? What in God's name ors are

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<v Speaker 1>you doing? And her answer is perfect.

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<v Speaker 4>She looks at me and goes, dad, you're paying for it.

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<v Speaker 4>Oh yeah, yeah, I forgot. Yeah, Okay, we're done.

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<v Speaker 2>It makes tons of sense, you know.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, no, it doesn't hurt case. Yeah, for sure.

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<v Speaker 1>I was one of those people that started a five

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<v Speaker 1>twenty nine plan the day the kids were born, so

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<v Speaker 1>that helped a whole bunch. All right, guys, we're done, Joel,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you. We'll catch you this weekend twelve to two

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<v Speaker 1>pm on Sunday and then again next Thursday.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, sounds good. Thanks Bill,