Speaker 1: Welcome to Fantasy Hockey Life, presented by fan Tracks. Here
shit Cuss, your source of information and analysis to help
you win your fantasy hockey league.
Speaker 2: Block off hot a step hit on, stay lock. Here's
your hosts, Jesse Sovie and Victor Noun. You Fantasy Hockey
Live once again. Jesse Severe, Victor Nuno ready to talk
a little bit of fantasy hockey. Victor Nonio, my friend,
how you doing today?
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are recording in my new home. This is move number
two in for a month. It's been crazy. So yeah,
it's been It's been a busy few months. I'm happy
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where I can just my wife peek her head and said, yep,
that's a man cave mission accomplist. I can do all
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Speaker 2: Is man cavish. It's a decent room, it's got laundry,
it's got the TV. Well, if you can get a
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I would be set, But you shouldn't do that. I'd
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Speaker 2: All right, we'll be back in one minute to talk
to the Buffalo Sabers. Here to talk today about the
Buffalo Sabers, we have our friend Michael Agello of the
Hockey News of Hockey Hot Stove. Michael, how are you
doing today?
Speaker 4: Very well, getting ready for the NHL Draft, getting ready
for the Stanley Cup Final, and getting ready for free
agency and all that good stuff.
Speaker 2: Oh, you gotta love this time of year in hockey
because everything happens so quickly. The Cup, the Draft, all
the free agency had just right there in a row.
So summer is not time off for us hockey guys.
It is usually time off for the Sabers. However, at
least the months of April and may have traditionally been
for the last couple of years. Unfortunately, it was another
rough season, but hey, it was not a total loss,
to be honest. So we're going to talk about the
good and the bad here today. They scored the tenth
most goals in the NHL. Did the Sabers. I bet
a lot of people didn't expect to hear that they
had the sixth best shooting percentage. Unfortunately, they also gave
up a lot of goals. I suppose if you went
to a Sabers game, you at least got to see
some offense because both teams were scoring every time they
were out there. They still haven't been able to make
the jump to the playoffs, have the Sabers. But we're
going to talk about several players today that are really
taking a leap better than anybody basically who are on
the Sabers in the real foulol period a few years
ago that we really associate with the tanking Sabers. Just
before US Thanksgiving, the team was eleven nine to one
before enduring an ten and three period that really knocked
him out of the picture for good. This season, I'd
say they moved Dylan Cousins at the deadline team ownership, which,
by the way, the Pagoulas rule in the NFL they
do great over there, but it just doesn't seem to
be working so far. In hockey. They've not managed to
get together, although I understand there are more there's more talk.
There's more talk going on this offseason, whether we can
believe it or whether this change is coming or not.
What do you think of the Sabers season and their direction, Michael?
Speaker 4: Their direction is all over the place, and that's the
reason why I think they brought in Yarmo Keckline and
as a senior advisor to help Lindy Rough and to
help Kevin Adams. Now, a lot of people, I think
almost every other NHL organization would fired Kevin Adams by now,
but there's a loyalty there on the part of Terry Pecoula.
Regarding Adams, He's this is his sixth NHL draft that
he will be embarking on and I would hazard to
guess that if he doesn't make the playoffs this year,
that he probably will be out of a job. But
they kept him, they brought in Yarmo, and I think
this is going to be an off season of great change.
There were some positives this year, but I think the
thirteen game losing skid that you referenced was a killer,
was a season killer. And it's funny because you said
at Thanksgiving they had that record that you mentioned, they
were in a playoff spot, and I think the odds
are if you're in a playoff spot at thanks and
American Thanksgiving, the odds are I think like eighty percent
that you're going to make the playoffs. They lost the
game before Thanksgiving and they fell one point out of
a playoff spot. I'm sure that wasn't on their radar,
but I know it was on my radar. And as
soon as I saw them dip out and like they're
not going to make it, and they didn't.
Speaker 3: One of the guys who did all he could to
help get them into the playoffs was Tage Thompson. We're
going to start with him. He rebounded this past season
after a down twenty twenty three to twenty four. He
went from sixty five point pace up to seventy eight
point pace this season, not as high as that ninety
nine point pace twenty two to twenty three, but he
nearly matched his goal high from that season of forty
seven with forty four. He did it in two fewer games.
Although he did spike a career high shooting percentage five
percentage points over his career high, all the other numbers
looked pretty good high power play time on ice, a
good average time on ice. He had some pretty good
face offs, and some of his advanced numbers showed that
maybe he was a bit lucky, but actually it was
all pretty much in line. So it seems like this
point per game ish range is where he should live.
Do you think that's what we should expect from Tage
moving forward a round point per game or do you
think he can get up to that hundred point pace? Again?
Speaker 4: We had ninety four points three season. Three seasons ago
his career high forty seven goals, and I thought he
topped out at that, and then he had an injury
plagued year two years ago, but still managed to score
pretty decently. This year, he started off with some injury issues,
was slow at the beginning, and then really in the
second half was on fire. And it coincided because the
injury I think was a wrist injury, he couldn't play center,
so they had moved him to the wing, and they
had promoted Yuriku Leach up to the top line as
the center, and he was scoring like crazy playing on
the right side, so that might be something he could
play center next year. He could stay at the wing
but he seemed to have a lot of success in
the second half, scoring playing as a winger rather than
playing up the middle. So do I think he can
maintain a point per game pace. I think it's all
dependent on injuries. But if he is healthy, yes he can.
Speaker 2: JJ Peterca his third full NHL season was his statistical breakout.
Ciscount nearly doubled from his prior to campaigns. He was
death on the Atlantic Division with twenty seven points in
twenty three games, pretty amazing. On the downside, his shot
rate was down from ten point h nine to seven
point four to one per sixty minutes, so half a
shot per game, a little more than half a shot
per game, and a fifteen point six percent shooting helped
preserve his goal scoring. Despite that drop in shooting totals,
he was second on the team in power play tom
on I's tops among forwards. But now all the talk
seems to be that maybe JJ Paterca will leave the Sabers.
He's been in the trade rumors. Oh yet Friedman's out
there talking about it. There's some thought maybe it's coming
actually from Peterka's camp and he's dissatisfied. I always hate
this stuff. When the big outlets start talking about, oh,
maybe this player needs to be maybe stop thinking you're
going to trade for every good player from markets that
are just smaller than yours. You deserve to have them.
That's a Yankees type of thing to do. Michael. I'm kidding, Michael.
Michael's a Yankees fan. All right, what did you see
with Paturka? Because he had an amazing season. I don't
want to ruin it by talking about all that stuff,
but tell me about Turka's year and what you could
see for next year.
Speaker 4: Well, there's been remarkable growth on the part of Paturka.
He had twelve goals as a rookie. He was playing
mostly third line minutes. He's moved up each year. He
was playing mostly second line last year, scored twenty eight goals.
This year he was top line. He was playing with
Thompson and Tuck, and then they reshuffled the top line
and Kole each moved into the middle and Thompson moved
to the wing, and Paterca put up a career high
sixty eight points. His issue is defensive. He is really
not fully formed defensively. He's a really good offensive player,
and I think he could grow to potentially a forty
goal scorer, but he's got to improve on the other
end of the ice. I think there were some issues
that in terms of Lindy Rough trusting him to play
those big minutes and to be able to be good
at both ends of the ice, But in terms of
his offense, I don't think that's in question. In terms
of all the contract stuff, I personally believe this is
a ploy on the part of Alan Walsh because Peterka
probably is looking to get paid. This is the end
of his ELC. Maybe he wants an eight year deal.
If there's truth to the fact that he wants out
of Buffalo the offer sheet which has been out there
and a lot of talk about offer sheets, I don't
think that option is open to him because the Sabers
have so much cap space they'll just match it. They
don't want to trade him, they don't want to get
rid of them. But if he's unhappy in Buffalo, then
they might have to trade him. But I don't know
if I buy it. I'm not sold on the fact
that he's not going to be a Saber next year,
but he's gonna get paid wherever he is.
Speaker 2: Let's hope there's not just to site another NHL rivalry
like Canadians versus Hurricanes, where petty offer sheets could exchanged.
That was my favorite a couple years ago. Anyway, Yeah,
Paterka amazing year. Alex Tuck also an excellent year. He
tied a career high thirty five goals, led the NHL
with six shorties and nine short handed points, both of
them led the Leak. Played his first eighty two game season.
That's a big accomplishment for Tuck, who's had injury issues
throughout his career. He received Selki votes this year, although
the expected goals of our replacement had him as an
offensive superstar and pretty much just neutral on even strength defense,
so that was a little strange, but you have the
eye test on what you might have seen. He had
a big jump in black shots this year with one thirteen.
There was also a lot of talk about whether the
Sabers should sign Tuck to a big extension. The kid
likes being in Buffalo. That's one of the reasons he
got traded there. It seems it could kick in after
next year if he did sign an extension, presumably for
the bulk of his active career, since he's already his
late twenties. That would be a contract for his thirties.
I gather he's very well liked in Buffalo too. Tuck,
what is your take on his season this year and
what are you expecting next for Alex Tuck.
Speaker 4: I think it's a situation where they're either going to
sign him or they're going to trade him, because he's
got the year left. If you look in past history,
players like Graspins, Rus de Lane, and Sam Reinhardt, they
traded him with a year left in their contract because
if they let him walk to free agency, then they
get nothing and they either have to decide whether they
want to sign him or trade him. Now. I personally
think they should sign him because he is a not
Western New York, but Central New York. If he's from Syracuse,
he's from me. He's a lifelong Saber fan, He's a
leader in the room. I think he wants to stay,
but I think he also wants to get paid. He
was on an eight year deal that he originally signed
with Vegas where he was making less than five million dollars,
so I think he wants to get paid, and that's
always been a question with the Saber. Will they pay
their players, They pay their star players, they pay ay goal,
they paid Rasmus Daleen. But will they pay that sort
of middle management on their roster. He scored thirty four
goals last year. As you said, he blocked a lot
of shots. He penalty killed. He fulfills all those aspects
that I think Lindy Roff wants on this roster. So
I would expect that they would sign him. But there's
always the possibility to move him.
Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure. Maybe that he sure did kill penalties.
He killed a lot of them by scoring goals, So
that was a pretty good deal. Next up, Jason Zucker.
I keep I was given Buffalo a hard time at
the beginning, but so many guys had amazing years and
Zucker was one of them. Maybe a little under the radar.
Fifty three points in seventy three games, Maybe that doesn't
jump out, but would you believe that was the second
highest scoring season of Jason Zucker's fourteen year career and
his career high assist total with thirty two assists last year.
He is on his fifth franchise. He enjoyed good deployment
at five on five, although it did vary a lot.
His most common line mate was Tuck, but he played
less than forty percent of the time with Tuck, so
he was all over the board in terms of who
he's playing with. This sort of thing happens on a
team that's struggling to figure out what's going to click
for them. Was Zucker's season as good as it looked
on the stat sheet? And do you expect that he
could be like a solid middle six type guy again
next year or what do you see going forward for
Jason Zucker.
Speaker 4: The funny thing with Zucker is that he was originally
signed and a lot of people thought that the five
million dollars one year contract was an overpayment and that
he was signed for that much because it was a
one year deal and because it was Buffalo, and the
Buffalo has had trouble attracting free agents, and that was
the reason for the overpay. But it was a success
because he played now. He started off as a third
line guy and he worked his way up the lineup,
and the reason is that other players like Jack Quinn
or Peturca at times, or Zach Benson, who's a young player,
they just didn't fit the role. And he moved up
in the lineup and he did very well in the
power play. He was a leader in the locker room, again,
a veteran guy that they was brought in for that reason,
and they didn't trade him at the deadline because I
think they wanted him and his attitude and his work
ethic in the locker room. Now he's thirty three. He
got a two year deal at less money than he
was paid on this one year deal, but I think
they paid him in the sense they gave him the
extra year and they expect him. I think he's going
to be a top six forward for them. I think
he probably will be the winger on this on their
second line, and I think they're going to expect him
to score around the same amount of points as he
did last year.
Speaker 2: Well, that would be amazing for him to do that.
That was a savvy move. And talk about getting a
value veteran leader, that is something they've talked about for
a while, trying to get more of in Buffalo to
go with so much young talent that's coming up. Another
one of those young talents is Jack Quinn. And this
is a team where a lot of the young guys
that they took in this last Generation Project prospects have
slowly broken through. Quinn was drafted actually the same year
as JJ Paterca, And if you look at all these
guys who were drafted since two thousand and nineteen, there
have been several There's cousins in Paterca and Quinn and
Power and Benson and Coolich. So many guys are cool
lock as you said it. And Jack Quinn actually has
two of the top ten performing seasons of the guys
who've been drafted in that era, but still is around
middle of the road in terms of about half a
point per game. He is still being used outside that
top tier of Buffalo forwards, and I guess I don't
know if there are more movements in that top six,
is he going to be able to ascend into a
bigger role or are we starting to see what Jack
Quinn's going to be and it's going to be third line,
middle six type player.
Speaker 4: They're hoping that there's more. But the killer was the
achilles injury that happened in June of twenty twenty three
that really wrecked the first half of last of the
twenty twenty three to twenty four season. He didn't come
back until December. Then he had another injury and he
only played twenty seven games. He had nineteen points, so
he actually when he did play, he played fairly well.
This year. It was almost as if the sort of
slump or hayes from that injury was still hanging over him.
He had a healthy summer and he worked out, and
I think they were depending on him to be the
guy to pick up the slack for Jeff Skinner, who
they b It just simply didn't happen. He struggled, I
would say, the first forty five to fifty games, and
then played pretty well at the end of the season.
But again, this is when the Sabers were already out
of it and all the pressure was off, and that
that's when he did the majority of his scoring. And
they need players that will show up when they're in
the race rather than when they're not in the race.
Speaker 3: Yeah, makes sense, good stuff. We're gonna move on to
a couple of pickum's here, and so the first one.
This may seem surprising to some that we're gonna put
Josh Norris and Ryan McLeod together, may seem like a
little disrespectful to Josh Norris. The guy has had some
injury issues. He was traded to Buffalo this past season.
He's only played one season where he's had more than
fifty six games played, and that was his second full
season in Ottawa, where he ended up playing sixty six
games and had a sixty eight point pace. But below that,
he's basically Beyond that, he's basically been a fifty is
point pace player and he's been in fifty ish games
a year, so that's been an issue for him staying
healthy and having consistent production. You look at Ryan McLeod
and he had a bit of a breakout in terms
of his effectiveness in Edmonton during their Cup round last season.
Buffalo acquires him and all of a sudden, he's so
good and really has improved his point totals. He went
up to a fifty five point pace, so just based
on last season, he had a higher point. He had
to have more production than Josh Norris. I'm running between
these two. Who do you think is going to have
a bigger role and possibly might score more points.
Speaker 4: It's funny because McLeod was the direct beneficiary of Norris's
injury prone situation, because Norris was traded acquired at the
deadline for Dylan Cousins and he played three games and
then he was out for the rest of the year.
And now with Cousins gone and nor Us out for
the year, McLeod moved up into the second center spot
and benefited with the best offensive year of his career.
He's a restricted free agent this year, so that's it.
Behooves him because he's gonna hit. He's gonna hit the
jackpotter at least, either an arbitration or on a year
on a new deal. Norris there's a ton of talent there,
but he's got to prove to me that he can
stay healthy. So in the end, and if you're asking
me to choose between the two, I would choose McLeod
because I know McLeod is going to be there. I
don't know if Norris is going to be there.
Speaker 3: That's where I would land on that too. You know
what you're getting at least with mclar a least.
Speaker 5: I think I know what i'm getting.
Speaker 3: And I'm not even sure Norris will play that many games,
so that's a concern. Let's do another sort of interesting one,
and this is gonna be with a couple of the
younger players, and that's Zach Benson and Juri Kulik, and
we don't know exactly what these players are going to
be yet. But for Benson, he was getting just under
fifteen minutes time and ice. In fact, both of these
guys had similar time on ice, similar point pass both
were in the low thirties. I think that there's some
pretty significant offensive talent between the two. One of the
big differences I see is that Benson is an exceptional
defensive player. You look at his ranks and it's just
off the charts. He's already one of the best defensive
forwards that he might win Selki trophies one day, depending
on how the rest of his narrative goes. But the
offensive has in terms of the NHL has been just
a little bit above average, not exceptional, and so that
has been part of it. For Koolik, always known as
a high motor, good two way guy, but some of
his defensive metrics haven't looked great in the NHL, and
some of his finishing has looked pretty good. So just
hard to know where you think these guys are going
to end up. I'd like to know if you think
both of them can get well past thirty point paces,
because that seemed to be where they are right now.
They're still young in their careers. But and then between
the two, who would you pick to have a better
season at least next season based on the.
Speaker 4: Way things ended at the last I'd say six weeks
of the regular season. I expect Kulich to be their
number one or number two center. I expect him to
play up the middle. Lindy Ruff had a lot of
confidence in him winning faceoffs and being decent defensively, and
he seemed to gel with Peterka and Thompson on that
top line. Benson, I completely agree with your assessment that
he's a good defensive player. He's been a good defensive
player as an eighteen year old coming into the NHL
a couple of years ago. And he continued that, I
think Lindy Ruff appreciates his work ethic. The thing I
think that's sort of hurt him is he played in
the NHL as an eighteen year old. He may have
benefited from going back to the WHL and honing his
offensive skills. He is concentrated on being that energizer Bunny,
being that antagonistic, sort of smaller Brad Marshan type of
player without the cheap shots, And I think he's grown
into that role. But the last two seasons he scored
I think thirty nine or twenty nine and thirty points.
I think he can be a little better than that.
He can probably get to the forty point range if
he plays in on the top three lines, which I
expect him to do. But if you're asking me who's
going to be better offensively, I would say Kool each
is going to probably play in their top six, so
he's going to probably be in the fifty to fifty
five point range at least.
Speaker 2: Let's move ourselves over to the blue line because Rasmus
Doalin needs to be covered. And I love Rasmus Stalin.
I absolutely love him, and I bet Buffalo Sabers fans
love him more than I do. He was nineteenth in
the NHL Unexpected Goals above Replacement last year, one spot
behind Nikita Kucharov. To give everybody some perspective, he is
absolutely a star defenseman in the NHL. Since he arrived
his rookie year twenty eighteen nineteen, he's seventh defenseman points,
He's eighth in total time on ice for anybody. He's
eighth in shots. All this on the team which has
been nineteenth in goals over that span. Not bad to
be that high in points when your team will respectable
in goals has not been necessarily at the top of
the NHL. At this point, Dollan is twenty five, he's
the captain. He's locked in for a very long time
to come with this team. Nonetheless, again there's rumors or
at least those like to get entertained, and in this case,
it's not for a contract that if the team isn't
able to get competitive maybe in the near future, whether
he would want to be there in the long term.
Believe me, I'm in Milwaukee and I'm a Yannis fan,
so I know how that feels. Maybe we should just
focus on how awesome Dollan is and what you expect
next from him for the next year. In the Buffalo Sabers.
Speaker 4: He dealt with those rumors at the end of the year.
Paul Bisonette came out and said that you know what
you just said, and he shot it down. Did he
even joked he didn't even know who Paul Bisonett was.
But he's a premier offensive defenseman. He's one of the
that's say, top five offensive defenseman in the NHL. He
played great in the Four Nations for Sweden. He's going
to be on Sweden's Olympic team next February. But he
had I think it was his second best offensive year.
He scored twenty goals last year. He scored seventy four
points the year before. I expect him to score in
that range next year. I think the frustration is that
he's doing well, and Tge Thompson is doing well, and
Alex Tuck is doing well, and it doesn't seem to
go anywhere. There's just not enough there with the rest
of the roster or their goaltending for them to be competitive.
So I can understand the frustration of Dolleyan if that's
what the root of some of the rumors were. But
I don't think he's going anywhere. And I think he
will probably lead them in ice time and lead them
in points on the blue line. But whether that'll be
enough to get them into the playoffs, we'll see.
Speaker 2: Well.
Speaker 3: One factor that might have a lot to do with
that is Owen power and power. Completing his third full season,
he was able to increase his point pace from two
back to back thirty six point paced seasons up to
forty two. His power play time has remained about the
same as total time on ice decreased, actually a little bit.
All in all, he just looks like a really solid,
minute munching defenseman both sides. Offense defense looks good. I
think really what it comes down to is some people
believe or feel like he might have another offensive gear,
and I'm just not sure about that. I feel like
this is probably who he is. He's probably a forty
to fifty ish point guy, maybe on the lower end
of that, but maybe there's upside for more. So you
tell us what do you think. Do you think he
can Is this kind of what we should expect from
him moving forward, or do you think there's a whole
other gear that he hasn't.
Speaker 5: Quite gotten to yet.
Speaker 4: I think he can be a little better offensively. Dollen
is the top the quarterback on the top power play,
so he's always going to get that ice time a
minute thirty on the power play, and power is usually
going to pick up the remaining seconds. I think he
can be a fifty point defenseman, but that's not the
issue in Buffalo regarding Power, it's the fact that he's
a big defenceman and he doesn't play like a big
defenceman and defensively like some of their forwards, like Paterca,
he's not fully formed. Defensively, he's decent, he's good positionally,
he gets pushed around in front of the net. He
doesn't clear to the front of the net that those
are issues that you know everybody who watches the Sabers
has with power. Now he's I think he's a very
talented kid. There's a lot of room for growth there.
He's never going to be on the top pairing on
this team because him and Dollen are both left shot defenseman,
and unless Dollan flips over to the right side and
they play him together, which is putting all your eggs
in one basket. I don't expect them to do that.
But I think there's room for growth, but I'm not
sure how much growth.
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's totally fair.
Speaker 3: And as you said, Dellen is going to gobble up
all those minutes. No one's going to surpass him anytime soon.
Let's talk about the other more offensively inclined of defenseman.
That's Bowen Byron. I've been such a fan of Byron
for a long time, but you see the highs and
what he did in junior and what he at times
did in Colorado, and this was his first full season
with Buffalo, and he did have I would say overall
a successful season. He had a thirty eight point pace.
He's playing almost twenty three minutes a night, he's playing
in different situations, and nothing super unsustainable in that forty
point pace. I just think some people might want a
little bit more, think that there could be room for more.
You look at some of his underlying zone and one
thing that I think is interesting is that he rates
out pretty awfully defensively. He's in the twenty fifth percentile
for defense offense, is pretty high. But also it shows
that he's one of these guys who's a defenseman who
gets a lot of his points from the finishing aspect,
and that's just really hard to sustain year to year.
That's probably one of the most volatile stats is defenseman
goal scoring, and so that might make it hard for
him to push his numbers up even more. In addition
to the fact that, as we said, no one's taking
Dollen's pot So what do you think we can expect
from Byron or do you think he might have to
go somewhere else to realize his potential?
Speaker 5: Or would they even consider that.
Speaker 4: Yeah, the expectation is he's not going to be a
Saber next year. There's a lot of talk he's a
restricted free agent. He wants to be a top pairing defenseman,
and at times he was. This year, he played the
left side when Dollen flipped over to the right, and
they were pretty good together. But with two years left
before unrestricted free agency, he either wants a long term deal,
which I don't think the Sabers are prepared to do
because they're already paying Dollen in power big money on
the blue line, or a short term deal, or he
gets paid and he's allowed to go unrestricted free agent
in two years, and that doesn't benefit the Sabers because
they don't want to a player walking away from nothing.
And he's also another lefty, so you have Byrom, you
have Dolleen, and you have power all on the left
side ideally, and they really don't have a lot of
strength on the right side. So I think there's a
room for growth there. I think he could be a
power play quarterback. He has the offensive chops, he can
rush the puck. I think he has a pretty decent shot,
but I don't think it's going to be in Buffalo.
He'll never get power play time with Dollen being the
top power play QB and then you got power as
the second guy. So I don't think he's going to
get enough power play time, and I don't think he's
going to sign here long term with the current situation,
so I expect him to be someplace else.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that makes sense, and it could be a good
by low for born Byron if he's going to go
somewhere else and be the number one guy, which we
don't know for sure, but it seems pretty likely at
this point. Let's move on to the goalies. Yes, we
do need to talk about them. They were ranked twenty
seventh and expected goals against per sixty, but conceded the
thirtieth ranked actual goals, So I bet you can imagine
what that means. The goalies did not perform as well
as expected, and we had upl Ukopeca Lucan in play
fifty five games. Rhymer filled in for twenty two of those,
and then Devin Levi, who mostly was in the AHL,
played nine games for the Sabers and none of them
have a positive goals save above expected or culsive above
average Rymer actually did have a positive goal save above expected,
and UPL and Levi were both negative single digits negative
five and seven respectively, but neither was able to They
weren't not for great protection and they weren't able to
outperform it, which is basically the bottom line. What do
you think we can expect moving forward in this Tanem?
I know that Levi is an RFA. Rymer doesn't seem
like Kobe Back. He's thirty seven in the UFA and
they have committed to UPL for four more seasons, so
it seems like he probably will get the majority of
the starts, or you tell me, what do you think
the breakdown is going to be there?
Speaker 4: They went into the season. It's funny because Lindy rough
said at the press conference when he took the job
because he had situations in New Jersey where he didn't
have a goaltender and he was asked about the Sabers
goaltending and he said three letters EPL. So going into
the season he was expected to be the starter. And
they didn't do the same thing that they did the
previous year where they kept Levi around till January and
then sent him to the American Hockey League. He was
in the American Hockey League for most of the season,
which was smart because he needed to develop and he
had a really good year in the American Hockey League.
But what the Sabers may have found out is that
they didn't have a number one goaltender in Lukenan because
he did not match what he did the previous year.
When he was given the number one job, I think
it was the end of December or early January, and
he had I think it was a nine to eleven
say percentage was he had a really good second half,
and again the pressure was off, there was not a
lot of expectation. There was a lot of expectation this
year starting out the season and he did not play well.
And I remember one reporter saying, I don't remember a
game that Ukapeca Lucnan stole for the Buffalo Sabers. So
at the end of the year when they were hot,
Lindy Roff went to James Rymer. He played him most
of the time in the mid March to the end
of the year. As for where their goaltending tandem is
going to be next year, it's probably going to be
Levi and Lucanan, and I could see Lindy Roff basically
making it an open competition and seeing what Lucanan does.
And if Lucanan continues to play well, then he'll go
with him, and if he doesn't, then he goes to Levi.
But I don't know if that's the way to go
because they went that way a couple of years ago
and it didn't really turn out well. But they have
to be better defensively to help either one of these
goaltenders out, and that's a big question as well.
Speaker 2: All right, hey, Michael, this is some great talk on
the Buffalo Sabers. If people want to check out your work,
where should they go.
Speaker 4: If you're interested in Sabers. I'm covering the Sabers for
the Hockey News. I'm also co managing editor with Bill
Meltzer of a website called Hockey Hot Stove. I cover
the Maple Leafs and the NHL for Hockey Hot Stove,
so you can see me in a number of different places.
Speaker 2: Awesome, and the stove is never hotter than it is
right about now, as you can't wait for the draft
and the Regency. Thank you so much for coming on today,
Michael and talking to us about the Sabers.
Speaker 4: My pleasure, guys will.
Speaker 2: Be that's good fired, pats my goodness. Well, long with
a cat grabs. Now it's your weekly goalie talk. But
Kat Silverman, Kat's Instincts.
Speaker 3: Time once again for Cat's Instincts. With Kat Silverman and
Bengold mag we're talking a buffalo Hello, Saber goalies, and
we're going to start with Scott Ratslaugh six to one,
one hundred and seventy nine pounds, fifth round pick back
in twenty twenty three. He is twenty and had a
strong WTL season with the Seattle Thunderbirds. He was previously
with them the last several seasons, and he's trended a
little bit up and down. He had a good second season,
a little bit down last season, and then improved those
numbers again this season and got some playoff time.
Speaker 5: Was pretty good there as well. He joined the.
Speaker 3: Rochester Americans last season in this season, but hasn't gotten
into a game yet. Overall, looking at his equivalent season,
a little bit on the lower side. He's got some
comps of guys like Jake Allen. But Kat, what are
his things to tell us about?
Speaker 5: Ratslaugh?
Speaker 6: I think he looks good There's nothing about his game
that I found to be overly spectacular. I thow that
he looked like his skating is fine, his track is fine,
his hands are fine. I thought his positioning could use
a little bit of work, and I thought that his
decision making, which he was still playing in the juniors,
so that's fine, but I think his decision making still
needs a little bit of work. He still seems pretty
reliant on the defense in front of him, communicating with
him well enough to protect him, which I think it's
a good sign. And he was one of the alternate
captains for his team this past year. That's usually a
good sign that the goaltender is going to be a
good bit when it comes to the communication and strategy
for the defense. But there was just something when I
was watching his game with his decision making on some
of the positioning, some of his angles, some of his
reaction timing that I couldn't quite put my finger on.
It looked like it was just a little bit of
a oh, just a little bit off. And I couldn't
tell if that was just the way he plays, or
if it was something that once he is playing at
the AHL level that we'll see exposed to pretty quickly.
But I think he looks fine. I think Buffalo needs
their goaltenders to be able to make those decisions pretty
quickly because I'm still waiting for them to really take
a huge step forward.
Speaker 2: But that's okay.
Speaker 6: He doesn't look like he's They've had a few goaltenders
in the past where I've watched them plan. I'm like,
this guy needs work, and you guys are not the
team to have a guy who's a big project. I
think Ratzloff looks just fine, which is probably a good
thing for their system.
Speaker 3: About the other guy, and that's the pious Lannan in
six thirty four pounds, twenty twenty two to forty first
overall pick. He's now twenty one. Last year, when we
talked about him, we discussed the fact that he might
not even be a top prospect anymore.
Speaker 5: It looked pretty bad.
Speaker 3: He had a couple of down seasons and it was
trending all in the wrong direction for him. His play
was a little concerning, and we'll put him back on
the list because he did have a pretty strong season,
albeit it was in the Hockey else Fen skin, not
in where he was previously. He'd been up and down
between the Liga and the Mestis and the U twenty
League over in Finland. So he made a change and
nine ten save percentage in hockey. Eel s fen skin
for more ik pretty good. His hockey prospecting rembound in
a little bit. He's still in the mid twenty percent
chance of being in NHLer. Probably his best comp is
Carter Hutton, which isn't amazing, but at least he's back
in this conversation, Cat, So what are instincts tell us
about to Pius.
Speaker 6: Lennon in, I do think that he I don't know.
He looked fine, but he also had some issues with
just some timing, some rebound control. I thought his tracking
was probably the weakest part of his game. I thought
his foot speed looked good. I thought his skating looked
pretty good. Has pretty active hands, but it was hard
to tell if his tracking or if his timing was off.
I don't know. I feel like Buffalo Oh doesn't need
him immediately, but I don't love his game so far,
so we'll see. I think he's probably still a ways
off on being someone that we would really want to
consider as a top tier prospect, but it's going to
be fun watching Rochester next year. I think they're going
to have a lot too. I think they're going to
have a lot to see in terms of shaping their
team moving forward. So that's okay. They went through a
phase where they had no clear cut prospects, and I
think that right now they have mostly B T C
plus and then an A at the NHL level, but
mostly B prospect which is fine with goaltending.
Speaker 5: But at least they have some, so that's good.
Speaker 6: Yes, that's a win for them, all.
Speaker 3: Right, Thanks for giving us your instincts on the Buffalo
Sabers goalies.
Speaker 2: Will be back right after this.
Speaker 1: Dig the.
Speaker 2: Dynasty Dig Buffalo Sabers Edition, Victor, this is your number
seventeen prospect system. Of course, been a lot of graduations here.
They've got the number nine pick coming up and their
first their no brainer was a favorite of mine in
last year's draft, Victor, who is it?
Speaker 3: Well, that would be consta Helinius of course, twenty twenty four,
fourteenth overall pick five or eleven one hundred and ninety pounds.
He was someone who played in a lot of different leagues.
Last year bounced around a little bit, and this year
he was in the AHL the whole time, and that
was good for him. Thirty five points and sixty five
games in the AHL for a teenager is pretty darn good,
and so that was really nice to see.
Speaker 5: He was actually.
Speaker 3: Eighteen most of this season and then he just turned
nineteen on May eleventh, so really young for the AHL,
and that's really strong production there, So you like to
see that. He was also good for filling at the
U twenty World Junior Championships and was good for them
in the playoffs, So good for the art Rochester Americans
in the AHL in the playoffs as well. So all
in all, I would say a super strong season for Lennius.
Looking at his FHL player card, I have him at
a six point five to five to fifty five percent
chance of being just above average on your roster. I'm
a little worried about some of that scoring translating. He's
also a bit of a jack of all trades kind
of player, so he'll probably be above average NHL ROR,
but maybe not a whole lot above and may not
have a lot of scoring to say for it. And
it took ing at his bash it's actually pretty bad.
He doesn't He shoots just a little bit more than
average for the AHL. His hits and blocks are below average,
so he's averaging out to a thirtieth percentile for bash.
So that's part of the problem too, is if you
don't have the potential to have huge scoring upside and
your bash is weak, it's like, what are you doing
for me here? That's part of the concern. So that
is part of the reason to have him a little
bit lower Jesse. But let's find out a little bit
about what makes Constant Helenious that interesting. From OURFHL Scout.
Speaker 2: FHL Scout Tim has this to say about Constant Hellnius.
He has excellent edgework ability to help in tide areas,
top speed, needs work to be able to transition with
his puck on the stick at the NHL level for
passing excellent real highlight of his game. Handles the puck
quite well. Shooting shot is solid but not spectacular, aided
by a deceptive release IQ. Very smart player. Skates impeccable
routes both offensively defined space and defensively to beat his
check to pucks. Sees everything on the ice, allowing him
to find teammates in the slot often for checking. Very active,
not afraid to engage with larger opponents to fight for pucks. Defense,
very good back checker, sticks to his checks, shoulder checks
relentlessly to make sure he knows where his opponents are,
will engage large players. So the best asset was the IQ.
He sees ice very well and anticipates plays. Biggest concern
the north south foot speed may limit him at higher levels.
Top tier potential would be a two C with power play.
That would be because of the elite Hockey IQ and
the versatility that could see him getting the two C roll.
The bottom outcome or the median outcome I should say
for Helenius would be a bottom six centerman. That's because
while he's a very well rounded player, he lacks one
element to his game that will have him stand out
from his peers. Style is to comparable here Elias Lindholm
and our friend Mason Black, the NHL Rankking, the Tidy
Ultimate Champion. Put out the poll, put out the call
to the people. Consta Helenius versus col Richie and Richie
in a ROMP sixty five to thirty five percent. Boo
Victor's this how you sea?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 5: I think so, I I think it's a lot closer
than this.
Speaker 3: Actually, I think that Richie we talked about him on
an Islanders dig, and I think he's one of these
jack of all trades kind of guy. But I think
he's got a little bit more scoring pop and he's
been he had a little taste of NHL action and
looked pretty good overall.
Speaker 5: I really like what I've seen from him.
Speaker 3: But I do think that Helenius is strong ahl year
as a teenager really commands a lot more respect than
maybe what he's gotten.
Speaker 5: So I do think this is quite a bit closer
than it seems here.
Speaker 3: I think that the issue with Helenius, unless he gets
traded to a different team, might be the problem we
talked about him when he was drafted is that Buffalo
has a lot of these guys he's undersided, undersized.
Speaker 5: Skilled but not overly skilled, two way forwards.
Speaker 3: Who don't really need to move the needle in any
of the one direction too much, and he might just
fall into that trap of being good but not great,
and so then that's not a whole lot in fantasy. Richie,
on the other hand, eventually, as we talked about on
that episode, probably will be the second line center, and
that could eventually lead to a decent amount of points.
So I do think that I would take Richie, but
I think it's pretty close between the two, and probably
more of a toss up or a pick. I'm looking
at the FHL player card for Richie. Six point seventy
five is what I have him had. It's a little
bit higher percentage of being a six and I might
consider even bumping that up. We'll have to see based
on next season. But his bash looks like eightieighth percent
hel and good shots, good hits, good blocks, But that's
based on Ohl time, and that Ohl time might is
a little bit more generous to some of those stats,
and when you're in the AHL, you expected to look
a little bit worse.
Speaker 5: Looking at the hockey.
Speaker 3: Prospecting between these two, Hellenius dropped down from sixty seven
to forty two percent chance of being a star, and
Richie has trended down from twenty two to fourteen to
eight percent chance of being a star. So it still
looks like Collennius by a landslide in this model, but
I'm not sure that's entirely accurate. I think Richie has
a little bit more to say about that. Looking at
the some other comps for Lennius, I think one that
I mentioned during his draft season, and it's funny because
the percentages align even better now than they have a
draft plus one season. But Arterry Luckinin is someone who
he reminds me of someone who's really good defensively good
two way, doesn't have the most offensive pop, but in
the right situation, Artery Luckinon can be a really interesting player.
And I think that's pretty solid. So I'm liking that
comp more and more.
Speaker 5: Jesse.
Speaker 3: Sometimes past self doesn't agree with future self, but this
time it did align, So I like that.
Speaker 2: Good Victor. You are one man now, all united across
time and space. Who is the need to know prospect?
Speaker 3: The need to know is Jake Richard. He is from Jacksonville, Florida,
so it's not Richard, it's Jake Richard, even though he
is a dual citizen. Maybe at one point in his
family lineage they pronounced it differently, but we're going with
Jake Richard.
Speaker 5: As far as I can tell.
Speaker 3: He is a twenty twenty two hundred and seventieth overall
pick six rounder, six one and ninety four pounds. I
don't think I mentioned yet. He's a right winger, a
right shot right wing. Really late birthday, so he was
August fifteenth birthday, so just like literally a month from
being eligible for the following draft. And he was in
the USHL that draft season, and he had a pretty
good season, but it wasn't remarkable. Then he had a
little bit better D plus one in the USAHL. But
now what really has set him up to be noticed
is his most recent season, his second season at Yukon
of the NCAA forty three points in thirty four games.
That's going to get you noticed. I haven't quite adjusted
or calibrated my FHL player card for him yet. I
still have him at a four. And anytime you see
my cards and there's a zero zero after it, you
know that I haven't manually adjusted it because I always
do that for the players, even changing the percent just
a little bit. So I might need to do that
for Richard. I think that he probably is closer to
being an average NHL. I probably have him had a
five point four or five or something like that. But
I think that he's someone in a deep league that
he might be really interested in. And let's find out why.
Jesse from our FHL.
Speaker 2: Scout FHL lead scout Tony comes in for Jake Richard skating,
good skater. His game really isn't about speed, though, says Tony.
Passing and handling Jake quite good at passing the puck
and handling it in close to get his body to
get off a shot. Jake has many good shots slapper,
wrist snap. He can also get his own shot while
processing the puck. He has a high hockey IQ, good
vision to see passing lanes and word to shoot. Seems
very poised with his peers. For checking, there was some
poor checking in what Tony watched, at least not remarkable.
According to Tony, a defense did play some defense one
particular shift against Maine, he made a really good poke
check during overtime. But the best ass set overall per
Tony is that shot and the biggest concern he needs
to work on acceleration for his game. He needs to
increase his bash for fantasy. The top tier outcome Tier
one wing Top six wing power play one. That's because
his shot will allow him to play top six minutes
and plenty of power play one time. The median outcome
Tier three spot duty on the third lines, body power
play time that's because of the lack of speed, not
a lot of bash and the comp that Tony gives.
Perhaps a Patrick line was slightly more mobility Mason Black.
The NHL ranking put out the poll Jake Richard versus
Aiden Fink. Never trust somebody with two first names, Vicker
and the people definitely didn't because Fink is not a
first name. So Aiden Fink wins sixty seven to thirty
three percent over Jake Richard. Is this inaccurate assessment of
the future of these two men?
Speaker 3: Both of these guys are depth forwards and so hard
to say that they're similar in the sense that they
both were relatively unheralded in their first couple of seasons
after being drafted. Fink was a seventh round pick by
Nashville in twenty twenty three. He was drafted the AJHL,
which we know the equivalency can be tricky coming from there.
But he just spent two seasons at Penn State, did
Fink and was really awesome. His first season last season
was a point per game. This season fifty three points
in forty games. So both of these guys popping off
in their second college year, and I think that they're
fairly similar, and so that's something to keep in mind.
I will say that Richard has three inches on Fink,
and sometimes I can make a big deal so Fink
five to ten. But he is someone who is pretty
intelligent and I think can translate some of this some
of this scoring to the NHL. He is someone who
gets inside a bit and has a pretty good tenacity
for checking. So I think that might bode well for
Faint and probably would take him. I think that there's
been a little bit more of a track record. He
has a couple of seasons of strong NCAA production, not
that Richard doesn't, but I think I would go Faink
as well. I don't know that it should be quite
the landslide. I think more people need to give a
little respect to Jake Richard. That's just my feeling on that,
but I think they are a little bit closer looking
at the hockey prospecting between the two. Richard graduated the
model this year. I had just two percent chance of
being a star, pretty pessimistic. Most of his comps are
replacement level guys or bus. There are a couple of
guys who beat the odds to be stars, like Tony A.
Monte Steve Sullivan, So of course it can happen, but
it seems unlikely. Aiden Fink, on the other hand, is
in his de plus two season and he's covered in
that ten percent chance of being a star, which is
where he is now. Some guys like Shane Pinto probably
a reasonable comp there, and I think that would be
a really good outcome for him. Looking at some other
commps for Jake Richard, he's looking at just guys like
maybe Sammy Blay is probably a little bit more realistic,
someone who is a little bit more of a replacement producer.
But there's always a chance that he defies that. Looking
at the Jfresh model one percent chance of being a star,
ten percent chance of being an NHL or of course
a little bit more pessimistic there from our j Fresh friends, Jesse.
Speaker 2: Yes, sir Victor, I don't remember mister Richard from the
twenty twenty two draft. The guy I remember from the
Buffalo draft is the keep your eye on prospect.
Speaker 4: Who is it?
Speaker 3: Let's be Noah Ousland twenty twenty two to sixteenth overall
pick five eleven, one hundred and seventy four pounds. He
is someone who's been interesting to track. He was mostly
in Sweden, then had had two games last season in
the AHL after a pretty decent SHL season, and this
past season he was exclusively in North America. He did
get eight games with the Sabers no points, minus six,
and then in the AHL he was really strong thirty
six points in forty five games, including a couple apples
in the playoffs, so.
Speaker 5: Overall not bad.
Speaker 3: You look at some of his numbers in the NHL
and only seventy eight game any seventy eight total minutes,
and it was pretty average. Some of his numbers were
actually pretty good, like his cours he against, but overall
nothing to write home again about in that small sample size.
Looking at his FHL player card, five point sixty five
sixty five percent chance of being a star or six
percent chance of being a five out of ten an
average roster player, and his bash his seven out of
ten for shots, and the blocks and hits are pretty low,
almost non existent for hits.
Speaker 5: So he's someone whose.
Speaker 3: Bash is probably going to be well below average. So
that might make it hard because you're counting on a
center who's undersized to eventually be able to translate that scoring,
and I just don't know that it's going to work.
If he stays at center, he's probably going to be
a third liner, bottom six center. If he does move
over to the wing, I'm not sure that he's going
to feel as comfortable or be able to increase his scoring.
Speaker 5: You never know, so we'll see.
Speaker 3: Well, let's find out a little bit more about Uslin
though from our FHL scout Jesse.
Speaker 2: Noah. Osland is brought to you today by Austin Kelly,
one of our FHL scouts. Skating Osland solid skater with
good footwork, lot of speed, intensity, mobility, something in which
he's always had as a strength. The passing and handling,
always an oppressive playmaker. Strong transition forward with positive skating
allows him to easily carry the puck. The distance of
the ice allows him to control and dictate play Oasland
has improved his puck control, although he can still still
has some work to do with past accuracy, but he's
a mature playmaker with an NHL puck creation game. Shooting
Ousland has grown but more of a shooter, using his
shot a bit more than he did back in Sweden,
taking a lot more shots, Analyzing his shooting opportunities better
good slap shot with accuracy as well as being scrapped
in scrambles at the net. The IQ smart player who
has shown more control in his game, less panicky than
when he first came to North America, and as he
matures he gets more comfortable in his decision making. He
does well analyzing the ice and figuring out the right
plays for checking. Decent, not overly physical, but he has
a good active stick and can apply pressure to win
the puck. The efforts there to be a bit pesky
against opponents for Austin Osland doesn't have the most physical
game on defense, not poor enough to keep him from
a potential NHL career, but he needs to add some
more defensive intensity to his game. His lack of size
was notable in the NHL, where he struggled to win
physical battles due to his lighter frame, average defender who
positions himself well, but the lack of size could hinder
his potential long term. So the best asset Osland is
a highly mobile player who can create a lot of offense.
There is a very projectable motor play driving ability that
could be a strong point producer in the NHL. He's flashy,
competitive player who has talent to make the league. The
biggest concern Oceland isn't so weak that it'll keep him
from the NHL, but if he doesn't add more muscle
to his frame, it could end up hurting him down
the road. He needs to get stronger to ensure his
projectability is there and win a roster spot in the NHL.
The top tier outcome that Austin sees for Oceland first
line winger or a second line center. That is because
he is a strong offensive game and he's got quickness.
He'd have to get stronger, but the upside is there
to potentially get in that top six, although it's more
likely on the wing. More likely is going to be
the second line role. Probable to be on the wing,
but he's a capable center and the median outcome well
a third line center or a winger. He could have
more of that third line role and what's a strong
and young saber step chart with a good amount of
talent with more upside perhaps than Oceland has. He could
move to the wing of players like Colinias and Kulik
keep him out of the top six, but most likely
he's going to be middle six for a team stylistic
comparable a bit similar to Vancouver's p Suitor as a versatile,
smaller center wing with two way offense and good intensity.
Oasland's less of a natural center and has slightly higher
upside than Suitters current NHL status, but the two have
similar traits in the NHL rank King Mason black Wood,
this is a little bit more exciting No Usland up
against Riley Height of the Minnesota Wild Heights star is
oaned just a little bit this year, but nonetheless he's
able to nose out of victory fifty point six percent
to forty nine point four percent. I guess that's probably
a one vote margin in an eighty seven vote poll.
Victor Riley Height, No Usland, who you got?
Speaker 3: What's interesting because those other two poles were landslides, and
I thought they should be closer. This one's basically a
toss up, and I think this isn't close at all.
I would take Riley Height easily. I don't understand what
people are hedging here or wanting Osland for. He doesn't
really have a huge upside, and he's got a lot
of question marks in terms of translatability, even though he's
been in the HL maybe that's part of it, is
you just see the AHL production and I think that
you have to really still be excited about Height. I
know that Bill Garran has talked pretty glowingly about him,
and the Wild are still excited. And yeah, he was
back in the WHL for another season, but that wasn't
his fault. He's in March twenty fifth birthday. He could
not be in the AHL, so he was either NHL
or back to the dub for him, and that was
part of it. I think he did join the Iowa
Wild at the end of this season for the playoff run,
but I don't think he got into any games. So
it's going to be turning pro next season, which canna
be a big test for Height. But ninety points in
sixty games, including a few at nine and six games
for the playoffs he captain the Prince George Cougar's. Of course,
things could have gone a little better for them, but overall,
I still think it was pretty successful and I definitely
would rather have Height, even though there's maybe some question
marks about his translatability to the NHL, there's just the same,
if not more for Osland and in these types of situations,
Jesse I'm always taking the winger in fantasy. In real
life you tend to want the center because it's a
little bit more value to your team. But we're not
building an NHL roster here. We're just trying to find
the best fantasy assets, and it's a lot easier to
translate you're scoring as a winger than it.
Speaker 5: Is as a center.
Speaker 3: So I'm taking Riley height all day, every day and
looking at the hockey prospecting between the two, it reinforces
this point. Height did turn down a little bit to
twenty eight percent chance of being a star, but Uslan
has trended down to nine, so that easily gives the
nod to Height and Riley height in my FHL player
card six point seven eight, so seventy eight percent chance
of being at six a little bit above average, and
the Bash is a little bit average. His shots are
pretty good, his blocks are actually pretty good for four,
but he ends up being just an average for bash.
But one thing that is true about Height, which is
counted negatively in our status, is that he is a pimmer.
Speaker 5: He likes to get some penalty.
Speaker 3: Minutes, so if you like that, then you might be
rewarded by him some other comps for Oasland that might
be a little bit more reasonable. Brandon Sad as someone
I think he might look a little bit like average
producer Mike Yorke as someone else who could look like him.
And I think that you're looking at more of an
average slash replacement level producer quite frankly for no Oasland.
But you never know, maybe he can turn things around
and be more more positive looking at the j fresh
card six percent chance of being a star, fifty three
percent chance of being an NHL or so, a bit
more pessimistic as usual, Jesse.
Speaker 5: And if you are a.
Speaker 3: Patreon you can listen to my top ten points recap
on Patreon. And if you're instant doing any scouting with
us or helping with the show, shoot me a DM
on Twitter, Discord, or email us.
Speaker 2: You're right back to Quis on the show. Before I leave,
yet a couple of things for you to keep in mind.
One of them is our shows brought to you by
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all his work there. I do a solo show called
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If all goes well, this Tuesday, you'll be hearing about
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Jesse Severe on Blue Sky, Rate and review us, Apple Pod, Spotify,
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next time, keep living that fantasy hockey life.