Speaker 1: It's the last Call Sunday, and it's the last last
call of the NFL regular season. I'm the prop Queen
Ariel Epstein. Today on the show, we're gonna be joined
by Yanni, the Greek lad from Las Vegas also known
as Vegas Rutter, and he's gonna tell us where all
the sharp groups are going. Then Carmel Bianco's gonna talk
NFL props here in week eighteen, and also going with last,
but not least, Marco, who's gonna be telling us all
his sharp sides of the day. I know that by
bet on it, he's got a play that he really likes.
We all know that my Baltimore Ravens are in action tonight.
I'm wearing my favorite Raven sweatshirt because it might be
the last time that I can. And guess what, I
saw a great tweet today. The tweet was it was
spot on with how Ravens and Steelers fans are going
to feel about the day. It said, the funniest part
of Raven Steelers is no matter who wins, the winning
fan base will victory lap and talk crap, and the
losing fan base will cope by saying they're glad it happened,
so the head coach can get fired. Thought it was
a great tweet. I have no clue what to think
of this Ravens Steelers game, because my heart says I
don't want them to win, but they probably will to
put me and keep me in misery for another week.
And I also this week have a shot at winning
my pick'm contest, so I need some winning action today.
And that's why Yanni the Greek is joining the show
right now telling us where all the sharp groups are going.
I need to start with the important game of the day,
and oh forty nine Ers hat that's an interesting choice
for today, Yanni. But I'm really interested to hear your
thoughts on this Ravens Steelers game because the line went
from minus two and a half to minus three and
a half Ravens on the road in Pittsburgh. Public is
loving Pittsburgh, so many people said to me, Ariel, I'm
so sorry, I love Pittsburgh today. Fine, I don't care, Yanni,
Then why the heck is this line with what minus
three and half minus four and a half Ravens on
the road.
Speaker 2: Because most people might like the Ravens, but are they
betting the Ravens. I mean, or miss Steelers or what
have you, because here's what I can tell you looking
at the back end right now, it's all Ravens action.
It's not Steelers action. The ticket count is higher Ravens,
the money is higher Ravens. Everybody's maybe saying, like the
Steelers look like the side, but they're playing looking at.
Speaker 1: The DK splits, the DK splits had it favored the Steelers,
so you probably obviously you're looking Vegas splits, right, That's.
Speaker 2: What I'm saying. See, that's what I mean. It's different.
That's the problem. I don't understand why recreational betters are
so into what do the books have? What do they need? Dude?
You could talk to two different book makers and they
need the exact opposite. It's what you're booking. The market's
going to tell you what you need to know. And
when you look at the line, it's obvious it's a
primetime game. It's Sunday night football. It's going to have
the most risk out of any game today, and the
lines reflecting what the action is. And if it was
all Steeler action, rest assured, this line wouldn't be three
and a half, it would be sitting at three, so
there is Baltimore action coming in. But I think by
the time this game kicks off, like most you're gonna
get decent two way action. I don't think they're gonna
have a ton of risk on that game. The under
is where they're gonna have the risk so far, because
it's sharps and recreational betters. But the difference is ariel
that the sharps got down it under forty two and
a half. The recreational betters are betting it under forty
forty and a half. And that's what you got to
remember today, because everybody was I've been asked like five
times already, what are the sharp sides? What are the
sharp sides? There's no sharp sides. The sharp sides are gone.
The sharp sides were a team minus five that's now
minus thirteen. Like so knowing that becomes irrelevant. It's where
are we today? Where it stands right now? The sharp's
already got out ahead of the market. The only thing
they're waiting for now is if the public money moves
somebody's lines further away than where they should be. Because
I could tell you now all the groups that I
work with, they've already gotten down. The only thing they're
looking at right now are like player props, some team totals,
and then, like I said, if any of these games, Yeah, the.
Speaker 1: Hard thing about this week, So normally every week, aside
for some standout injuries, you can say, okay, for the
most part, this line might be moving because of the
action coming in, or it could be moving because of
an injury this week. How do you decipher which is
which because we do have a ton of players that
are going to sit out. In fact, the four pm
Eastern time games, barely any props are posted because they
don't know who's in and out exactly.
Speaker 2: And that's not only are are we in a tough
position and that puts the book makers in a tough
position as well. And I always tell betters, look at
the movement in the market. That's going to tell you
how beatable market is. Meaning on a Sunday NFL, they're
barely moving the line no matter what they're booking. Like
you said, there has to be an injured player, There
has to be weather related suspension, something major has to
happen to move a line significantly in the NFL. Even
sharp money is maybe going to move it a point
and a half if it's not on a key number.
But this is showing you that this type of week
is almost like the preseason because it's hard to quantify motivation.
Does any team that has nothing to play for even
care about winning, especially when it's a team that doesn't
have anything to play for against a team that has
nothing to play for? How do you quantify motivation? How
do you quantify replacement player? What are they worth? There's
a lot of factors to consider, and that's why I've
been telling betters to stay as selective as possible today.
That's the key. You're still laying the same eleven to
win ten as you did last week, and you're gonna
next week. But if you don't feel you have those edges,
there's no reason to gam again. If on this channel,
we're doing this as an investment vehicle, using sports betting
to profit, and if you're really using sports betting a profit,
then some of these lines have already gotten away from
us and you just got to call it a day.
And if you don't like the other side, like real
quickly a perfect example Minnesota Green Bay. We know the
look ahead was six and a half right now, it's
twelve and a half. There's only one side you can
take in this game. If you like green Bay, great,
good for you. You got a better number. If you
like Minnesota, you have to pass because you didn't get
down at six and a half, you didn't get down
to seven and a half. You didn't get down at
eight and a half, at nine and a half, at
ten and a half, at eleven and a half, Like,
what were you waiting for? What do you think the
line should have been seventeen? So this morning you decided
I'm going to lay the twelve and a half because
it should be fourteen and a half fifteen. Why weren't
you getting down at eight and a half, nine and
a half, ten and a half in place an even
bigger bet since your edge is so great. And again
that's why I always try to tell most betters are sharp,
they're smart, that they're they're reasonable, But when you put
them in an environment of gambling, I'll tell you take
the smartest guy on the planet, but you stick them
in the casino setting, and they lose all reason, Like
they'll do the stupidest shit. And that's exactly what the
sportsbooks are counting on today for betters to bet these
games after they've already had enough time to adjust the
betting line. So again, where we stand now, you got
to be cautious. And I'm not trying to discourage anybody.
All I'm saying is tomorrow morning, no one's gonna give
a shit about what happened today. We're all gonna be
talking about next week's wild card. And you don't want
to be that guy that lost their bank roll over
nonsense this week. That's all I'm saying.
Speaker 1: Johnny, Which games did stand out to you that people
could still bet today?
Speaker 2: There you go. Take the New York Giants. Take the
New York Giants because that number three is still available.
We got down at three and a half. I let
my subscribers know they could get down at three. It's
still good. I think they win that game out right.
We like the Giants. Another game that we're on that
the entire public's on as well, we're on the La
Rams and that's one that we actually.
Speaker 1: What are you laying in that game?
Speaker 3: Late?
Speaker 2: We actually bet laid thirteen and a half and fourteen,
so that's why it's fourteen juice. Yeah, that was a
little bit surprising to me because again. They didn't get
down at twelve and a half, they didn't get down
at thirteen, but then they hit that thirteen and a half.
They actually did that this morning with that New York
Giants that I sent out to subscribers. Another game that's
sticking out to me, I kind of missed it. I
don't know what I'm going to do with it. Is
Atlanta over New Orleans. You saw that this team still playing,
and for some reason, the recreational betters are loving New
Orleans this week. And this is what I like to
pay attention to as far as what the book makers
are booking, like don't want I don't care about I
want to fade the public. I'm not getting eleven to ten,
so that's not going to help me. But what is
going to help me is when I start seeing that
instead of them taking the or, they're taking the money line,
so they think that this Nororland teams doesn't even need
these points. That to me is what sticks out a lot.
When you have the higher ticket count on the underdog
and the majority of the bets are bypassing the spread
and they're taking the money line, that to me is
a telling sign, especially when the lines move in opposite that.
So the betters think they don't even need the points.
And this is the key number. You went through the
key number of three in that game at Lanta. Opens
is a two two and a half point favorite. You
went through the key number and they still don't think
they need the points. That's a telling.
Speaker 1: Sign people are betting. So people are betting Saints' money line.
Speaker 2: St Yeah, they're loving the Saints like they don't even
need the four points.
Speaker 1: Well, you know what, Atlanta. If the Falcons win, Atlanta
gets the third place schedule next year, likely facing Kansas City,
the Rams, and the Cowboys. If the Falcons lose, they
get the last place schedule, so they would face the Raiders,
the Cardinals, and the Giants. So it kind of makes
sense for Atlanta to want to lose to help themselves
next year.
Speaker 2: True, but are you like, how do you do that?
What do you do? You huddle up as a team
and say, well.
Speaker 1: It's the wide receiver. If Drake London doesn't play the
full game off Kyle Pitts, it's like, yeah, players could
start the hardest part of Week eighteen. Who's not making
it to the fourth quarter?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 2: What the coach is going to do what the coach
is going to do. But yeah, I just think that's it.
It's like all everybody looking to take advantage of those
players that are on the bonus, like they need three
catches and they're going to get an extra six hundred
thousand rest is short. The sports books are well aware
of this information as well, and they're juicing those those prompts.
Speaker 1: Well, I was shocked. Tony Pollard is right there. He
needs sixty six rushing yards. They put it at sixty
six and a half minus one ten something. Fish there's something.
I mean, it's one yard up, but I feel like
that's kind of fishy.
Speaker 2: In all the words, you know what that that probably
should have been probably should have been about fifty five
fifty four. But they know everyone knows that situation that
he needs sixty six yep, So they're teasing you with that.
I know it's probably should be in the fifties, right,
and yet they know they could make it sixty six
because that's what he needs. Those are what you take
advantage of. You go under ariel, you go under blindly.
You know you placed the good bet regardless of outcome. Honestly,
those are the kind of bets. I love placing because
you could be confident you're getting the best of it
because everybody's betting that sign for that exact reason.
Speaker 1: They they're welcoming it. So do you do you would
bet the under then, or do you stay away from
those incentives?
Speaker 2: No, I would bet the under. I would bet the under. Yeah, yeah,
I would fade the narrative. I would And I get it.
Speaker 1: And just where you need to win the game, they
need to win and they have the best run d
in football.
Speaker 2: We've all seen the clip of Bronk telling Brady I
need one more to get that million, and Brady drawing
up a play real quick and say let's get grink
the ball. That happens. I get it, course, but in
every game and every opportunity, that's not going to be
the case.
Speaker 1: And that's anytime touchdown score is like a Hollywood Brown today.
And I've been telling everyone this, I said, you have
to just bet it, hoping that at some point in
the next few weeks you win it. I've been betting
it for the last two weeks. I had to bet
it last week even though I didn't like the matchup,
because they booked it at nine to one when he
really is a three four to one anytime touchdown score,
the value at nine to one for a player that
needs one more touchdown to seven fifty k. Now he
gets the Raiders who are one of the worst defenses
against wide receivers. You saw they were trying to get
Hollywood the ball last week. So this week at three
to one is where I got it. Whatever, I was like,
I just I want to hit this for him seven
b That makes sense?
Speaker 2: Did those bets are fine to play? Sean?
Speaker 1: I got it at three to one at FanDuel. Check
my pick and account. It's literally bet at three to one.
Don't tell me bet at three to one. Anyway.
Speaker 2: Someone asked about under in New Orleans in Atlanta, Yeah,
I agree with that. I think it's a it'll be
lower scoring game, and even the markets reflecting that. It
started going towards the over midweek. But then you started
seeing that sharper money come.
Speaker 1: In totals today.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, definitely because the signs they are on
the sides. But they got out ahead. They got out ahead.
That's the key. Totals, So those numbers are are mostly gone.
That's the key with that, all right, Some of the
totals to take a look at Under in the rams,
and that's moved a little bit, but the public's blasting
that one over and that got steamed under multiple times.
That one sticks out. The Atlanta New Orleans under that
we talked about, that's down the forty three that was
sitting at forty four to forty four and a half
mid week even though it opened forty three. So that
also under really sharp, Philly Washington under also really as
you can tell, same narrative. It's mostly all the same things.
It's unders, Dallas Giants under. So they played a lot
of unders. The only over that stuck out is Cincinnati
and Cleveland. They started betting that one over at forty four,
and that's why you're looking at like forty six right now.
So yeah, the totals is where they've gotten by Detroit, Chicago,
that one also got over money. But seeing this is
the key. Once it got the fifty one fifty one
and a half, then you saw under come in because
again these guys are betting numbers over forty seven, great bet,
under fifty one, great bet. That's what it comes down to,
a good question.
Speaker 1: By Arius five twenty six, what lines do you think
have over adjusted, Yanny.
Speaker 2: Oh, I think Buffalo's over adjusted against the Jets. I
think you're paying too high of a premium there. I
think Jacksonville has been over adjusted. I don't think that's
warranted even against Tennessee. Who else was sticking out to me?
I thought Dallas, but we talked about that that was
a little bit too high. Oh and I think Kansas City,
Kansas City against Vegas, Kansas City showed us the week
after they had nothing to play for that they're not
showing up. And to expect them to show up on
the road meaningless game against the Raiders, I just don't
see it. Now, we know the Raiders are the worst
team in the NFL, so I don't have confidence betting
the Raiders. But I do think that line's a little
bit too high considering where Kansas City is mentally. And
then New England, New England now up to two touchdowns
against Miami. Did Miami's always played them tough, whether Miami
has a good year not a bad year. For whatever reason,
they always tend to play New England tough. I get it.
Weather cold, they're from Florida. No, it doesn't look good,
but still you're looking at two touchdowns, and I know
what betters are going to say, like, Okay, when a
team finds himself behind, is thetor going to stay open today?
You have no motivation to actually show up, you know,
and get in through that back door. It doesn't really matter.
Like again, every week a team like that has been
out of it. Like it's not just this week. It's
not as if a team like the Raiders have been
playing for anything since Week five. They haven't been playing
for anything. So you kind of kind of like, can't
overthink it. I think, Ariel, you just got to realize
some of these lines have moved just so significantly that
you want to look the other way or leave it
alone and wait for the playoffs.
Speaker 1: People were asking in the chat, I know that we're
very NFL heavy today, but they were asking for any
college basketball team.
Speaker 2: No, a little early. I do that in the steam room.
Not the only thing I did see. What was I
saw Louisiana Tech, Louisiana Tech plus ten and who else? Yeah,
the other ones are just litill too early, a little
too early. Louisiana Tech.
Speaker 1: So NFL and good question. That kind of sparked my
brain here in the chat when players potentially could get
moved or pulled at halftime or at some point in
the game. How much of a live betting opportunity is there.
Speaker 2: Today, It's how fast you are on the trigger and
what books are you're working with, because again the books
understand this as well, like they're on top of things.
That's what you got to remember. And a lot of
those live bets also are heavier juiced, so you have
to have an even higher winning percentage to cash those
like you. They're not giving out free money just because
it's the last week. Unfortunately, there's not no go to
that we could all just grind the day. I wish
there was. I wish there was, but there just isn't.
Man Again, if you see some spots in live, go ahead,
take advantage of it, especially if you think you know
they're going to sit a player or something along those lines.
But I just this is so hard to do. Trying
to be a psychic makes it even harder. I'm just
not good at that.
Speaker 1: Gables said, what NFL underdogs would you take today?
Speaker 2: The giants? The giants. I like the giants. I do.
The market disagrees with me, But like I said, I
thought Buffalo was given a little too many to the Jets,
but now that ten's even juiced so sharp, so they're
really blasting Buffalo for whatever reason. So I'll stick with
my Giants. I'll take the Giants as a top dog today.
Speaker 1: Johanni, what are you promoting today?
Speaker 2: I got my NFL package up. It has all the
early games in the four pm Eastern time games, so
the early in the afternoon games. So far four four
percent plays in there. Number one in NFL regular season,
number one over the last seven days in the NFL
twelve six and one. We're going to close out strong,
stay selected, and if I'm able to confirm tonight's honestly
not talenting Sunday night, I have a really strong lean.
I want to fire five percent on it, but I
got to get that confirmation. Those primetime games have been
so good, but I don't want to pull the trigger
unless and if it doesn't happen, then we just move
on to the playoffs. But over the next like after
those one o'clock four pm games kick off, if you
see that package up for Sunday Night football, we got
a good strong bet in there.
Speaker 4: So yeah, and.
Speaker 2: In the college football playoffs, the only one Bowl five
percent this season. That's one to know. Now our playoff
five percent already fired. That that's sitting in the package
for you. It's in Friday's bowl game.
Speaker 1: So, uh, say what you're waiting for for that primetime
game tonight? Huh what are you waiting for in the
primetime game?
Speaker 2: I want to see based on the early results, what
how the adjustment? How they adjust that betting line, because again,
all the risk ends up being on the primetime game
on Sunday night and Monday night, and if they they
either adjust or they don't adjust based off that risk.
So I look at how those early results happen, and
then I try to determine what is the money line risk,
what is the teaser risk, and then they should do a.
If they don't do a, then we fire b It's
been so simple, it really has.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be messaging you. I'm going to message you
later today. Please do please do four o'clock, four o'clock
ask you.
Speaker 2: Yeah, if by four fifteen, I know, I know if
I'm firing, I don't need any longer than that.
Speaker 1: Okay, I'm gonna be messaging you for fifteen Yanni's Greek
find him over at Greek underscore gambler. He's also got
the steam room very excited to see what his five
percent is at four to fifteen pm Eastern time as
well if he fires it off. Yanni, good luck today.
Speaker 2: Thank you, good luck to everybody. And remember we got
playoffs next week, so hopefully do some damage today. But
we got college football and the NFL seriousness ahead. Good
luck today, Ariel.
Speaker 1: It gets real heated in the next week, that's for
sure coming on now. Someoney's always heated. Someone ready to go,
someone I saw in the chat at a questions, so
I'm sure that could get answered as well. But he
said he wants to talk props with me. Let's talk props,
Carma and Bianco. From here, I waiter talk joining the show.
What's up?
Speaker 3: Car?
Speaker 5: All's good. If I'm gonna talk props, has to be
with the best prop person I know.
Speaker 1: Thank you. You want to talk props today?
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's just because of this slate, and let's call
it what it is. It's it's a garbage week eighteen
in the NFL, and I have like three games for
clients and they're the only three games, and I waited
until last night to post to them because I knew
that there's so many line movements going on that I'm
not going to give people a stale line. It is.
There's nothing more frustrating in the in the business is
giving someone a line and then that you posted on
Thursday and then they go to bed on Sunday and
they're like, it's moved four points dude.
Speaker 1: Ye.
Speaker 5: So so I just I avoided about what a sandwich
spot for me? After Johnny and before Mark. This is
what you call us.
Speaker 1: We're actually filling big shoes. This is the John Murray slot.
But John Murray's on vacation, yes, and.
Speaker 5: His Liverpool team is also losing, so he will in
a very angry mood right now.
Speaker 1: He's not going to be happy before we get to
NFL prop. Someone in the chat did have a hockey question.
They said, where is it? I think it was about
the Dallas Oh Canadian Stars. Any thoughts on Canadians plus
one seventy four.
Speaker 5: Montrell's playing extremely well, but Dallas is off a couple
of bad losses, and I just think the goaltending matchup
probably favors favors Dallas. I have to believe Dallas is
to play, but I can't play that one seventy four
people know that only that that much choose. I would
probably play him in regulation in this spot here. Montreal
played last night. They basically didn't show up in Saint Louis.
Lost that game to nothing, second of a back to
back with travel, I wouldn't want to take them.
Speaker 1: Let's got NFL, We've got kteen. You want to talk props.
What props stood out to you the most today?
Speaker 5: So this one is third on my list, but I'm
gonna put I'm gonna discuss it first, just because Gianni
was talking about it. Ariel, I want to be part
of the narrative today. With the Ballard rushing yards, the
over sixty six, over sixty six and a half like
minus one point fifteen, I get it. I get the
rush defense for the Jags, but there could be a
lot of good. It's the second half of this game
that I'm more interested than the first half because you
can live bet these props in game, and if the
Jags are up big, you have to. You have to
believe at some point, if they're up multiple scores, that
they're gonna they're gonna take some of the guys off.
They can still get that number one seed, but they're
gonna need obviously Denver to lose, They're gonna need New
England to lose. In New England may be up multiple
points at that at that point, because the Denver game
doesn't start till four thirty. You look at Pollard and
his last four games, he's just they've just handed him
the rock one hundred and sixty one and four hundred
and eighty five. It is the garbage yards in the
second half that I'm looking at. If they know they again,
it's the narrative he needs sixty six and a half
on a losing team. They're just going to give him
the ball and try and get them that number. So
it's more about the second half garbage yards than it
is about what he does in the first half.
Speaker 1: Are you only going to betting incentives today, karm Or
Do you like props for other reasons? Uh?
Speaker 5: Probably, perhaps for other reasons. You look at the cam
Ward won in the same game. You know cam Woard.
You look at him the first twelve games of the season,
one TD pass was the most he threw in any
of those games. His last four games against Cleveland, San
frank Casey and New Orleans, he's had two tds in
each game. Two tds in this game and again garbage
tds in the second half against prevent defense. Is when
you're up late, two tds is plus two tds or
more is plus two to eight. So you're not laying
any vague. You're getting some good money and that's over
at DK. That's one that I would I would probably
take that.
Speaker 2: I like.
Speaker 5: So it's one of those ones where Ward's going to
be in there the whole game. You get them as
much experience as you can, and you get them as
much as experience against a number one defense or one
of the top defenses. So that's that's another one.
Speaker 2: I like.
Speaker 5: Taking props two players on a team that is a
huge underdog is normally not a same thing to do.
But this week is, like I said, this week's a
little different. I think the narratives are different. I think
resting players in the second half some of these for
some of these teams, like Johnny talked about, just to
go off on a quick side note about the Bills
line at ten, you know, Josh Allen has that huge
street going of consecutive games played. He's gonna come in.
What's he gonna play? One series, hand ball off three times,
keeps that streak going, and then it's Mitch Drubisky coming right.
Speaker 1: That's why laying all these large spreads just isn't for
me today.
Speaker 5: Yeah, no, it's not. It's it's absolutely insane. Another prop
I like, and this is the Dan Campbell prop. I
like the Detroit Lions team total, oh twenty three and
a half. They've gone over this number twelve or sixteen times.
You know, Dan Campbell does not want to lose too
divisional foe. He would love nothing better than to play spoiler.
Speaker 1: The problem is is that do they care like the Bears.
I know that it's a difference in seeding, of course, Yeah,
and it makes your path a little bit easier if
you have the better seed, But is it really playing spoiler?
Speaker 5: Well, it's for maybe for k.
Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't have an answer. I don't
know in my head. I can't figure out if the
Bears really are going to feel like it's spoiler, if
the Lions really care, I don't know, like Dan Campbell
might care. Did his players care?
Speaker 5: Yeah? Well that's that's the things he's still said. He's
going to keep them in there, and he's going to
play them, so you have to believe the problem is
is which side of Dan Campbell's gambling Do you end
up on the fourth down gambles that at the thirty
yard line that they don't they don't score and now
you've gone a possession without another score, or are you
on the side of the Dan Campbell who gambles and
gets the first down that gets the TD. So you know,
it's kind of like Riverboat Run when he was with
Washington that you just did not know. Are you happy
with the gambling coach? I'm not do you want to coach?
Speaker 2: No? No, But I was like to.
Speaker 5: Yes, a gambling coach? Yeah? Yeah.
Speaker 1: I was like, is there something new way to talk
that we've got a gambling coach? No, but I understand
what you're saying that we all were gambling already and
do we want to be on the wrong side of
a gambling coach? You're spot on, But yeah, I have
been going back and forth on that game, thinking that
I don't know what the incentive is for caring for
all these players that are going to be on the field,
but it seems like Lions fans still want to beat
the Bears. So I understand. Someone asked to Karen, what
do you think about the Blue Jackets money line?
Speaker 5: The Blue jack I actually released. If you go to
my uh if you go to my my Twitter or
x page at Karma and biancle w t, I've got
to kick ass graphic there. I do a pod plate
showing that single game bets instead of parlays is the
way to build a bankroll. And we started with a
five thousand dollars bankroll. It is now up to a
little over seventy six hundred, I believe, with just flat
two hundred dollars bets. And Columbus is today's play at
minus one thirty over Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh's third game and four nights.
They played last night, and Columbus is playing extremely well,
good analytic numbers on them, and they just snapped the
Sabers ten game, winning the Sabers ten game a winning run.
So I'm going to take them at home. The goaltending
matchup isn't the greatest for either team. She loves Versus
murzilickans likely, but Columbus is a play minus one third.
I think there's.
Speaker 1: Another question on the Hockey world someone else.
Speaker 2: There.
Speaker 1: It is Carl what do you think of the Avalanche
at short price?
Speaker 5: The Avalanche they're going into Florida. Obviously, these are two
teams that could very well meet in the Stanley Cup
this year. Uh, Colorado's just playing insane hockey. They've only lost.
Speaker 1: Two games, lost to the Rangers and went to Classic.
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's first of all, that was a horrible game.
It was a horrible location to put a hockey arena.
The site lines were terrible. Maybe you know, the Winter
Classic doesn't belong in Florida. I'm sorry Florida fans, but
it just it just didn't look right, It didn't feel right.
It belongs in places like Detroit or I don't even
want to say Toronto, like Minnesota. These places were are
nice and cold, like they did it in Vegas. If
you remember Colorado a while back where they played somewhere
out in the west, but no, that was as far
as it'd be. Colorado or nothing for me, just just
the way that they're playing right now. One more prop
for you, Ariel, and I want your thoughts on this one.
Drake May his rushing yards are only nineteen and a half,
but I like the under despite the fact that I
think he's only had like five games this year where
he's gone under twenty yards rushing. How much does Vrabel
gamble with Drake May today in this game against Miami
where they if they get out to a big first
half lead, does he sit the second half?
Speaker 2: Like?
Speaker 5: How how does he take the RPOs out of the
playbook and not put him at risk of rolling out
and getting hit and getting injured. Imagine losing your star
qv in what amounts to essentially a meaningless game unless
New England believes that Denver is going to lose to
Trey Lance today.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and also against Miami already, Drake May went over
in September on their matchup with rushing yards and I'm
a big believer in the zigzag theory when it comes
to facing divisional opponents. Drake May also is running less
at home, just getting the numbers he's gone over. His
rushing yard prop on the road is seventy five percent
at the time, but only fifty percent at home. And
he's listen, he can run for it, but nineteen and
a half at least takes a couple of first down runs.
I understand your thought, but I do think there's a
world that Drake May would be playing through at least
the third quarter, and then you see in the fourth
if it gets out of hand. But yeah, I don't know.
I think your point. You're right that it's not worth
risking your quarterback on the ground when you're already in
the playoffs. You just need to hopefully win the one.
Speaker 5: They're they're competitive, right, and he's competitive. So you know
if he was the roll out and all of a
sudden he sees a lane, he could bust one for
twenty yards and there goes your and there goes your
your rushing prop under right, But I just think that
they should at the very least.
Speaker 1: I think playing an over in any game with the
double digit spread for a team that's already in or
out of the playoffs is is like it's like the NBA,
I don't bet props in games with double digit spreads,
and in the NFL, in this situation where there is
a chance you could come out in the fourth quarter,
I am nervous of any props for those players. So
I actually have not been betting props for anybody unless
there's a contract incentive at play.
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's weird because we were all expecting them to
roll the Dolphins. But the Dolphins play them tough. The
Dolphins are like, what eight and two straight up their
last ten games, and nine and one against the spread
the last ten games against the New England Patriots. So
it's not as if they're coming to and their QB
that they I can never pronounce his last name? Is
it yours?
Speaker 1: Miami?
Speaker 5: Yeah, he didn't look bad last week, So I'm not
saying they're going to go in there and upset them.
But when you're laying like almost two touchdowns, to me,
always the Gambers' mentality or the is that, oh my god,
that back door is always open if it's like twenty
points and they just play prevent defense at.
Speaker 1: The end's point, some of these lines have already over
adjusted to a point that you can only vet one
side and that side. And Yanni's mind is sometimes the
dog if it adjusts too much. But Carmine, thank you
as always for coming on giving us some winners, giving
us props. I love talking props with you, love talking
hockey with you. Catcham at Carmen bianco WT. What are
you promoting today?
Speaker 5: Yeah, just a three pack of NFL plays for today.
Two oh yesterday we had the Panthers by the hook,
I'll take it. And in Seattle, I really liked Seattle
in yesterday's game, So running good. Overall, we have a
lot of very good cappers in football over at wager Talk,
be it college, be it NFL, but combined college and NFL.
I think I'm number five at wager Talk, or i
am number five I'm seeing up on the screen right. No,
so I'm pretty happy with that. As long as I'm
making money for my clients, it's all that matters.
Speaker 1: Yes, we love the winners. Carmen Bianco, thank you as always.
Speaker 5: Good luck today, Hey, good luck to your ravens.
Speaker 1: Thanks last year on the show, it's a Marco D'Angelo.
He's been an absolute heater and I'm so sad that
the sandwich spots might be coming to an end. But
maybe he feels there are some today. Oh my gosh,
I know we're enemies today.
Speaker 3: I know.
Speaker 1: Wow, this is like a that's an epic picture right
there of us ending the show this way. You know,
I don't know if you were listening at the beginning
of the show, and for anyone that's just tuning in,
there was a tweet that I thought was spot on
and you could tell me if you feel the same.
The funniest part of Raven Steelers is that no matter
who wins, the winning fan base will victory lap and
talk crap, and the losing fan base will cope by
saying they're glad it happened so the head coach could
get fired. Do you feel the same?
Speaker 3: I actually said on a show this week to make
this game interesting that I think I think what they
should do is the immediately when the game is over,
the losing coach should be fired at midfield, right on
the spot. That would make the game much more because
I think both fan bases would be happy with that outcome.
Speaker 1: I'm cracking up. You know. It is hard for me
because I love John Harbaugh and I'm really not sure
if there is a right coach for Lamar Jackson because
Lamar is crazy and the same for the Steelers. It's
until you guys get a good draft pick, which, unfortunately,
because you're always around five hundred, your draft pick's never
good enough to get you a good quarterback. So, like
my good friend Alex Bassano, he said he hopes that
the Steelers are so bad next year that they get
a top pick in the draft.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: And the thing one thing about you know, Tomlin, and
you talk about the draft pick with the quarterback, there
really hasn't been a quarterback available to the Steelers to
take a reach on until last this year.
Speaker 4: You know, they passed on Jackson Dart.
Speaker 3: A lot of people thought the Steelers were gonna take him,
and they passed on him. And with what we've seen
so far out of Dart, you know, people are a
little upset that that they didn't reach in and you know,
and take him. But you know, time will tell. He's
played well enough. But you know, again, I don't think
he's a franchise quarterback. That's you know, one of those
generational talents that everybody wants the Steelers to get.
Speaker 4: And like you said, finishing.
Speaker 3: Over five hundred, never having that losing season, Mike Todlin,
You're never going to get that generational quarterback.
Speaker 1: Do you have an unbiased to feel or opinion for
the game tonight?
Speaker 3: I am gonna be totally honest with you, Ariel. This
is where I'm sitting. I have a four percent play
ticket in my pocket from two months ago when I
took the Ravens to win the division when they were
coming out of their bye week, and my plan, we're
looking at this game because the injuries to the Steelers
ar huge. We know that Baltimore should have won the
first game. And that's my biased opinion because I had
the Steelers in that game and I'm a Steeler fan.
I did not deserve to win that game. I think
they still would have covered either way, but Baltimore should
have won the game. This is a spot with dk
metcalf out really hurt the Steelers because the Steelers don't
have anybody else to go to. The other guy that
they were using a lot was the big tight end Washington. Well,
he breaks his arm last week and Aaron Rodgers really
had nobody that he was confident with going. I don't
know why Friarmuth has gotten lost in the playbook this year. Okay,
I think he's a tremendous tight end and I think he.
Speaker 1: Went a lot of money off Friar Pops.
Speaker 3: I think that if you are betting props today and
you want to do anything with Pittsburgh, the two players
that I think are going to be key for the
steel to have an opportunity. So these are the props
I would look at. And I'm not a big prop player,
full disclosure on that, but I would look to Friarmouth
and I would also look to gain.
Speaker 1: Well.
Speaker 4: I think you're going to see.
Speaker 3: A lot of passes out of the backfield, yeah, trying
to get things, you know, moving in the open field
when this line was starting to move. And I did
catch the segment at the beginning with VR talking about
the way this line is going in the public and
so forth. The sharp books that I respect in Vegas,
and you know, we've got books up and down the strip.
We have books that are locals that cater and you know,
I always I won't call those particular books out, but
you know, some of the local books I like to
refer to them go to the old days of Bodog. Okay,
it's the recreational players.
Speaker 4: The sharp books are taking money on the Steelers. Okay.
Speaker 3: We have seen some threes pop up at a couple
of the books here in town. I was hoping to
see this when it was sitting at four. Go one
more tick to four and a half, and my plan
would have been to hedge two percent of that play
on the Steelers plus the four and a half.
Speaker 4: Because the history of this.
Speaker 3: Series Ariel is there are one score games, and more
of them than.
Speaker 1: Been wild card last year, and except the last game
a few weeks ago.
Speaker 3: Exactly, Yes, but well the game, the last one was
still a one score game. It was a five point game.
But yeah, last year's playoff game was an absolute nightmare.
Speaker 4: For the Steelers. So this is a big game.
Speaker 3: You've got the mistique of it being the Sunday night game.
We know the history of Mike Tomlin on Monday night
football at in Pittsburgh. He's, you know, unbeatable. But it's
Sunday night. It's not Monday Night, and the Ravens are
gonna have something to do with it. I don't know
about you, but the fact that mar Jackson's back, I
don't know that that makes me warm and fuzzy.
Speaker 4: If I'm a Baltimore fan, I really you.
Speaker 1: Never know him, you never know.
Speaker 4: I really believe they try harder.
Speaker 1: Huntley played a non divisional and a non conference opponent,
which makes it a lot tougher when it's a backup
quarterback for its defense to essentially handicap when you're going
up against Mike Tomlin. Who knows you who has seen
Tyler Huntley play multiple times who has coached against him
multiple times. When it's your division, it's another beast. And
if I'm going up against the divisional opponent for a
shot at the playoffs, despite everyone else on social media
saying the same thing you said, I still want Lamar
Jackson as my quarterback.
Speaker 2: Okay, I just give.
Speaker 1: The MVP a better shot at being Listen, no one
can predict Lamar, which means Mike Tomlin can't predict Lamar.
John Harball can't even predict Lamar. So I'm gonna go
with the wild card to try to get into the
wild card. But let's get to the other AFC North game,
because I know from bet on It that's the game
that you actually were really looking at Cincinnati Cleveland. It's
a touchdown, touchdown and a half right now that the
Bengals are laying and on bet on It, that was
your best bet.
Speaker 3: Is it still it still is? And I like the
over in the game as well. This is a simple scenario.
I know that this is a division rivalry, but Cleveland
their super Bowl was last week. Dariel, Okay, they hate
the Steelers. That is their biggest rival. Don't give me
that it's an in state rivalry between Cincinnati. The pecking
order of rivalry for the Browns, it's Pittsburgh first, then
it's Baltimore second, because that was actually them back in
the day, all right, and then it's Cincinnati third. The
fact that they denied the Steelers clinching the division last week,
and that's what everybody assumed was gonna happen. And I
warned anybody that would listen to me, Cleveland is coming
to play last week and they're gonna play spoiler the Steelers.
That was their super Bowl. I don't see how they
get excited about this game. And if you look at
what the Bengals have done, they've played well down the stretch,
except you know the game in Buffalo where Joe Burrow had,
you know, the two brain farts back to back with
the interceptions for touchdowns that lost them that game. They're
playing hard and the fact that Burrow came back on
a team that was pure trash Thanksgiving night to play.
Speaker 4: You know, it would have been.
Speaker 3: Easy for him just to sit the rest of the
season out and not get hurt. He wanted to be
with his team, and his team's playing hard for it.
I don't see the Bengals stopping or excuse me, Cleveland's
stopping the Bengals this week, and just as we said earlier,
the Steelers were handcuffed offensively last week. Cincinnati's got all
hands on deck and that offense is clicking. I like Cincy.
You know, if you want to get greedy, you know
it's Cincinnati. It's the game over, or it's the team total.
Cincinnati over. If you worry that Cleveland can't get you
enough points to get to the team the whole game total.
Speaker 4: I do like them. I'm still on them.
Speaker 1: I'm trusting you. You've been on absolute fire this year.
I put it in my pick them contest. I need
to win this week and pick them to win the
contest like for the whole season. So your Cincinnati play
is one of my plays of the day. Likes seven
seven and a half. Another game that shockingly I feel
like everyone's talking about is this Saints Falcons game. There
is a big schedule implication for the Falcons, because the
Falcons could either be a tough schedule in twenty twenty
six or play the losing schedule in twenty twenty six
depending on the outcome of this game. How much are
you going to take that into consideration. Do you even
look at this game? What are your thoughts on Falcon Saints?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 3: I actually this is one of the games that I
did use on Marco's Delhi and I'm taking the Saints
in this one. And everybody's telling me all Atlanta's playing
so well right just what I say said about last
the last game in Cleveland played their super Bowl last week.
The Atlanta Falcons played their super Bowl on Monday Night
Football last week when they.
Speaker 4: Beat the Rams.
Speaker 3: Okay, both teams are playing well right now. But the
Saints are a young team that is excited right now.
They feel they found their quarterback of the future in
Tyler Shuck and the team's on a winning streak, just
like Atlanta's on a winning streak. But to me, I
don't see Atlanta playing with the same intensity that they
played last week. And I know, oh, they can control
the destiny of Tampa Bay. What do they care about,
you know, Tampa Bay? To help Tampa Bay out? You know,
that's your fault that you're in this situation that you
need our help, you know.
Speaker 4: I think the.
Speaker 3: Saints want the game more and everybody's telling me about
you know how Atlanta wants to finish the season on
a roll. The only part that does scare me a
little bit about going against Atlanta is there is one
person it does have something to play for.
Speaker 4: And to me that is Kirk Cousins.
Speaker 3: Okay, he's the one guy that you know, got cast
to the you know, to the bench last year and
at the end of the season for Michael Pennix Junior,
who is you know, the future of the franchise. Is
he playing these final games of the season for maybe,
you know, getting the job back? I don't think so.
I think more so if somebody else wants, you know,
a quality quarterback and comes and makes you know, an offer,
you know, one of those one or two year fixes,
you know, whatever he's got left in the tank. That's
the only thing that sees me with any motivation for Atlanta.
But I like the way the Saints are playing. They've
been non relevant for how many seasons now since Sean
Payton's been gone and Drew Brees has been gone. There
is excitement with the Saints and I think they're gonna
play hard. And my other thing, if you want to
look at that game, I'm I have to look at
the over two teams that don't have anything play for
if you're both out of the playoffs. I always looked
at the over.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's like an All Star game where defense is nonexistent.
David Tookarski said, Marco, do you take ten?
Speaker 5: Uh?
Speaker 1: Oh, it's a I don't understand. Do you take gets
with the I think you meant Jets with the ten?
How does like Buffalo and by so much?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 4: This game?
Speaker 3: You know, betting the Jets at any number is scary.
But I can't play Buffalo today. I just can't with
what happened last week and the way they lost. You know,
Josh Allen, you know how much does he play. You
don't want to get him hurt. You saw that he
wasn't one hundred percent last week. But this guy is
such a warrior. He always wants to be out there.
I just don't trust it. I think the back door
is going to be open for the Jets. You know,
and the Jets have the distinction of might of making
NFL history today if they don't get an interception on
the final week of the season, and they will be
the first NFL team to go through an entire season
without a single interception. Do you know how hard is
he So that doesn't mean they're gonna go out and
get one today. But I think the Jets are gonna
you know, I think the Jets are the team that's
gonna play harder. I just Buffalo after the way they
lost last week? How do you pick yourself up off
the mat. I know there's a chance of things for
them to play for, but what has to happen in
front of them to change their positions is not going
to happen.
Speaker 1: There are a lot of large spreads today. Did any
stand out to you, Marco?
Speaker 3: The the numbers, the way they have gone crazy is ridiculous.
Speaker 4: The two games.
Speaker 3: You saw the line on Minnesota. Okay, as soon as
they said JJ McCarthy's gonna play, which I don't understand.
Why in the world he's been hurt how many times
this year? You saw what happened with Washington, you know,
bringing Jayden Daniels back. Why if JJ McCarthy is really
your future, why are you going to risk bringing him back,
you know, when he's been injured two different times already
this year, and risk him getting hurt in a meaningless game.
But they're starting him and the public has just gone crazy.
Speaker 2: With it.
Speaker 3: I like the Minnesota side, but I don't like him
at the current number. And what Green Bay is going
to be putting on the field, I can't trust them either.
Just remember you don't have to bet every game, especially
on week eighteen. I think this is one that maybe
moved too much. Another one and I think maybe moved
too much. And I know VR talked about that they
still hit them at these numbers, and that's the Rams game.
You know, this is so unlike Sean McVay in the
final week of the season to be playing everybody. But
he is upset at the way the team has played
the last few weeks and he wants to get that
bad taste out of his mouth. But laying fourteen and
if this gets to fourteen and a half, Arizona the
can score points. Problem is they give up a lot
of points. Does he have the people in there in
the second half? You know, this is to me.
Speaker 4: I could see this.
Speaker 1: Ass so hard to handicap, and I was asking Yanni this,
I was asking calmness, I'll ask you the same thing.
We don't know if certain players are going to be
making it to the fourth quarter, So are you just
gonna stay away from those games.
Speaker 3: Yeah, if I played this game, honestly, I probably with
the inflated line would look if I was looking full game,
I would be looking for Arizona on the back door. Yeah,
if I was playing first half, I would be playing
the Rams, because I think the Rams are gonna come
out and if they come out first two or three
drives and put up fourteen or seventeen points, I could
see him yanking everybody because you know, it's like a
preseason game. You want your starters to get a little
bit of work, but you want to see results, and
if they put up some quick points, he's gonna be
happy with that, I think, And at some point I
would see substitutions in the game.
Speaker 4: That's my thought on that one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with you for sure. I've been also
staying away from some of these games that I just
have no clue if these players are playing the full
game or not, especially when it comes to props, which
I'll get to in a second. Marco D'Angelo, what are
you promoting today?
Speaker 3: Well, you know, I've got one play that we really like,
and yesterday we had one football play and it was
a big one. We had a five percent on Seattle,
and I absolutely loved the Seahawks and that was a game.
Speaker 2: Areo.
Speaker 4: You watched a game yesterday, the.
Speaker 3: Most dominant ten point victory I've ever witnessed in my life.
And if we don't get that interception, it's a three
point game and I'm gonna I kept seeing nightmares of
the Chicago Green Bay game from a couple Saturday nights ago,
when I, unfortunately was on the Green Bay Packers. I
was on the side of the team that dominated the
whole game and then had.
Speaker 4: To puke at the end of it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I could see the rerun of that, but
that was a five percent. We're now forty one and
eighteen going back to February of twenty twenty four. With
those plays, I've got a four percent play today. It
is my one NFL underdog upset shocker, and no it
is not the Pittsburgh Steelers. Okay, it is a different
game today. So you can check that out over at
wager Talk. Jump on board for that one. And we
have been running good for the last two seasons combined,
College and NFL were number two and money one at
a wager Talk. So we're proud of that and we
want to finish out, get through this landmine that's called
Week eighteen, and get into the playoffs when you know,
everything is good. And that's one of the reasons why
the big play came in at San Francisco Seattle game,
because it was a pure handicap. All hands were going
to be on deck and everybody had the same thing
to play for, and it was just the better team.
Speaker 4: The better team won that game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it was a great fait the public move
as well, because everybody thought there was no chance the
Niners were gonna lose for the number one seed to
run through Zimbrancisco at home. Oh no, yeah, Okay, I
need to take a picture of us because so let
me hold on, I have to stand up a little
bit so I could get it better. I'm going to
take a picture of us to explait hold on, I
have to try to take a picture at the same
time as holding up my shirt. Okay, ready, three two one,
I probably that's a key for Oh my gosh, Margot,
thank you so much. Made the best team win and
losing the wild card, that's probably what's gonna happen for
both these losers absolutely today.
Speaker 4: All right, thanks Ariel for.
Speaker 1: Anyone that wants to know some contract incentives that are
available right now if you are interested. I think no
one's talking about the Jaguars defensive tackle Eric Armstead, who
needs one and a half sacks to earn a million
dollars is over half a sack. I'mlike Myles Gay right,
whos minus three fifty Eric Armstead his over a half
a sack is plus two sixty. So you could still
get some decent value there for a sack from Armstead.
We mentioned the Tony Pollard props. I don't think that
people are talking about the touchdowns either. Tony Pollard, of
course needs the sixty six rushing yards to earn two
fifty K. It's at sixty six and a half the prop.
Or Tony Pollard needs two rushing touchdowns to earn two
hundred K. You could get him anytime touchdown at close
to two to one Tony Pollard. If you do want
to go for two, it's fifteen to one Tony Pollard
over one and a half rushing touchdowns and Leslie, you know,
Hollywood Brown three to one to score a touchdown, it's
seven to fifty K. If he does it, he's up
against the Raiders who absolutely stink. There were some other
props that I'm waiting for. Jets kicker Nick Folk also
needs two field goals to make one twenty five k
His over one and a half field goals is plus
one ten, so you could look there. That game is
at four twenty five pm Eastern time. I also on
the prop queen dot com have all the other props
that you could look for. You can subscribe to the
newsletter and there is a free guide for all the incentives.
A lot of them just aren't posted yet, so I'm waiting,
but I'm gonna be posting. I sent the newsletter out
for the one o'clock games that are posted, and then
for the four o'clock games. Once those get posted, I
will send another newsletter out to the prop queen dot
com subscribers. Good luck to all of your bets today.
Thanks for watching here on wager Talk class call. Oh wait,
I forgot the needs. Sorry, one more thing. I know
that we're on very long so from art to Caezar,
he said from over at the West Gates and sewn
Murray's away today. Colts, Dolphins, Ravens, Cowboys, Titans. Those are
the needs of the day. Over at the Westgates Superbook.
So go to the propqueen dot com hit newsletter and subscribe.
And that's the way to get to the newsletter. Good
luck to all the bets today. Happy week eighteen. Regular
seasons almost over. It's insane. Go Ravens, I guess us
see you next week. Care on Wajer talks last cor