WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.080 --> 00:00:03.520 This is Dan Kaples and welcome to today's online podcast 2 00:00:03.640 --> 00:00:05.719 edition of The Dan Caplis Show. Please be sure to 3 00:00:05.759 --> 00:00:08.240 give us a five star rating if you'd be so kind, 4 00:00:08.320 --> 00:00:11.599 and to subscribe, download and listen to the show every 5 00:00:11.679 --> 00:00:14.439 single day on your favorite podcast platform. 6 00:00:14.839 --> 00:00:15.039 Yeah. 7 00:00:15.039 --> 00:00:17.000 I don't think there's any question the American Way is 8 00:00:17.000 --> 00:00:19.640 in jeopardy. But how do we preserve it? How do 9 00:00:19.760 --> 00:00:22.120 we strengthen at different points of view on that? You 10 00:00:22.239 --> 00:00:24.679 know mine, but really happy to have our friend Ross 11 00:00:24.760 --> 00:00:27.839 Kaminski join us now from a fifty k a way 12 00:00:27.920 --> 00:00:30.960 where he does a great show each and every day. 13 00:00:31.079 --> 00:00:33.679 And Ross, I think it would be an understatement to 14 00:00:33.719 --> 00:00:38.240 say you are ferociously opposed to the Trump tariffs. So 15 00:00:38.439 --> 00:00:41.039 thank you for being with us to talk about all that, 16 00:00:41.200 --> 00:00:42.880 and welcome back to the show. 17 00:00:43.560 --> 00:00:45.920 Well, thank you, And I just would like to start 18 00:00:45.960 --> 00:00:47.640 by saying how much I love your opening. 19 00:00:48.359 --> 00:00:49.159 Oh thank you? 20 00:00:49.280 --> 00:00:50.920 Yeah, no, it's so fabulous. 21 00:00:51.000 --> 00:00:53.799 It gets me fired up every day. Yeah sure, but 22 00:00:53.880 --> 00:00:54.240 thank you. 23 00:00:54.320 --> 00:00:56.359 I feel like, you know, like getting ready to run 24 00:00:56.399 --> 00:00:57.960 up the steps like Rocky or you. 25 00:00:58.079 --> 00:01:00.640 Can just to chat with you. 26 00:01:01.119 --> 00:01:03.320 Well that's the whole idea. Now, your station was just 27 00:01:03.399 --> 00:01:05.879 named Station of the Year. On Saturday nights. So we're 28 00:01:05.879 --> 00:01:08.319 going to light some candles and send some flowers because 29 00:01:08.519 --> 00:01:10.599 when Craig and I were named Show of the Year, 30 00:01:10.640 --> 00:01:12.560 I think that was the year they ended the show, 31 00:01:12.599 --> 00:01:14.760 but my memory may be tricking me. 32 00:01:14.920 --> 00:01:19.920 But yeah, yeah, so I know what's that. 33 00:01:20.439 --> 00:01:21.680 It's a fickle industry. 34 00:01:21.920 --> 00:01:25.200 Oh yeah, no, listen, come on. None of us is 35 00:01:25.359 --> 00:01:28.159 entitled to a single minute on air. So grateful for 36 00:01:28.359 --> 00:01:30.959 every day that we get. Absolutely But my friend, I 37 00:01:31.000 --> 00:01:33.040 know you to be a very smart guy and a 38 00:01:33.159 --> 00:01:36.840 very smart financial guy. So tell folks why you are 39 00:01:37.040 --> 00:01:38.840 so opposed to the Trump tariffs. 40 00:01:39.920 --> 00:01:43.599 Okay, let me first start for those who maybe don't 41 00:01:43.640 --> 00:01:48.120 hear me very much by saying that I probably agree 42 00:01:48.239 --> 00:01:52.040 with eighty or ninety percent of Donald Trump's policies, and 43 00:01:52.319 --> 00:01:54.760 part of what frustrates me so much right now is 44 00:01:54.799 --> 00:01:57.480 I think he's risking all of that with this trade 45 00:01:57.480 --> 00:02:01.079 war stuff. The other thing I I'd say is Donald 46 00:02:01.120 --> 00:02:06.879 Trump has identified an actual problem in that other markets, 47 00:02:06.920 --> 00:02:10.759 other countries do things to prevent American products from getting 48 00:02:10.800 --> 00:02:16.120 in and it's a legit issue, and I'm grateful that 49 00:02:16.159 --> 00:02:22.000 he's paying attention to it. The problem comes because I 50 00:02:22.199 --> 00:02:25.960 deeply believe, and because Trump has been saying this for 51 00:02:25.960 --> 00:02:30.080 forty years, that his primary goal with tariffs is not 52 00:02:30.560 --> 00:02:33.840 as negotiating leverage to get other countries to do that, 53 00:02:33.919 --> 00:02:36.199 although he would be happy with that, it would he 54 00:02:36.479 --> 00:02:38.319 would be pleased if other countries said we're going to 55 00:02:38.319 --> 00:02:39.960 lower our trade barriers. 56 00:02:40.199 --> 00:02:41.840 He would take that as something of a win. 57 00:02:42.439 --> 00:02:45.919 But he really believes that the use of tariffs can 58 00:02:45.960 --> 00:02:49.680 help reindustrialize America, make America richer. 59 00:02:50.199 --> 00:02:53.560 And that is just a weird kind. 60 00:02:53.520 --> 00:02:58.400 Of economic alchemy that has been disproven for two hundred years, 61 00:02:58.680 --> 00:03:02.080 every place that's been tried, every time it's tried, and 62 00:03:02.199 --> 00:03:06.719 people seem to forget that the primary victims of tariffs 63 00:03:07.319 --> 00:03:10.439 are not the producers in the other. 64 00:03:10.400 --> 00:03:12.120 Countries that are trying to sell us this stuff. It 65 00:03:12.159 --> 00:03:12.800 is bad for them. 66 00:03:13.000 --> 00:03:16.919 But the primary victims of tariffs are American consumers who 67 00:03:17.360 --> 00:03:21.840 face higher prices and fewer choices and probably a recession. 68 00:03:22.719 --> 00:03:25.639 And I know a lot of smart people share your concerns. 69 00:03:25.639 --> 00:03:27.960 If President Trump was with us, as you know, his 70 00:03:28.479 --> 00:03:30.919 counter to that would be, well, wait a second, ross, 71 00:03:30.960 --> 00:03:33.000 I'm trying to accomplish a lot of different things with that. 72 00:03:33.039 --> 00:03:35.400 But part of it, yeah, is I want this to 73 00:03:35.439 --> 00:03:38.199 be a big source of revenue for the US, so 74 00:03:38.680 --> 00:03:42.360 we can then do things like no tax on tips 75 00:03:42.400 --> 00:03:46.439 and other tax relief to the working class, and we 76 00:03:46.520 --> 00:03:49.840 can have other big tax cuts across the board. So 77 00:03:50.479 --> 00:03:52.080 where do you think that's all flawed? 78 00:03:53.039 --> 00:03:58.919 I think that is an insane, ridiculous, mathematically impossible argument 79 00:03:59.240 --> 00:04:02.560 because the tariffs are paid by Americans. 80 00:04:02.759 --> 00:04:04.000 They're not paid by foreigners. 81 00:04:04.000 --> 00:04:06.400 Even if if the foreigners did pay did pay them, 82 00:04:06.599 --> 00:04:08.639 then the prices of our stuff would go up. But 83 00:04:08.719 --> 00:04:11.840 the bottom line is the tariffs are paid by Americans, 84 00:04:12.240 --> 00:04:16.319 so it's just taxation in one form or another. 85 00:04:16.639 --> 00:04:18.800 So since there's not going to be more money. 86 00:04:18.560 --> 00:04:21.319 There's not going to be sort of Biden style money printing, 87 00:04:21.319 --> 00:04:24.040 and thank goodness, there won't be. What will happen is 88 00:04:24.600 --> 00:04:29.560 if Americans are still buying foreign stuff and paying the tariffs, 89 00:04:29.920 --> 00:04:32.160 and then all that stuff is more expensive than it 90 00:04:32.240 --> 00:04:34.800 used to be, then we will have less money to 91 00:04:34.920 --> 00:04:37.800 buy other things that could be made in America. There 92 00:04:37.839 --> 00:04:41.040 will then be less demand for other things. Then sales 93 00:04:41.040 --> 00:04:46.000 taxes will drop, businesses will fire employees, income tax revenue 94 00:04:46.079 --> 00:04:47.959 will drop, the deficit will. 95 00:04:47.839 --> 00:04:49.360 Get worse, and there won't be any. 96 00:04:49.279 --> 00:04:54.279 Room for cutting any any taxes, none of that stuff 97 00:04:54.319 --> 00:04:57.519 that his minions are out there saying is going to work. 98 00:04:57.600 --> 00:05:00.560 Dan now Ross, I think the if is the key 99 00:05:00.600 --> 00:05:03.079 words you use there, right, because, as you know, President 100 00:05:03.120 --> 00:05:06.560 Trump would say, yeah, if our people are then still 101 00:05:06.560 --> 00:05:08.680 buying as much from these foreign countries. 102 00:05:08.720 --> 00:05:10.160 But but of course, as. 103 00:05:10.000 --> 00:05:12.240 You know, a big part of his rationale is that no, 104 00:05:12.360 --> 00:05:16.199 these these terroriffs, these taxes on incoming goods will then 105 00:05:16.360 --> 00:05:21.040 cause manufacturing to grow again in America, make more at home, 106 00:05:21.639 --> 00:05:24.240 and then people will be able to get you know, 107 00:05:24.319 --> 00:05:30.439 those affordable products while strengthening America, strengthening American employment, strengthening 108 00:05:30.480 --> 00:05:32.160 the American tax base, et cetera. 109 00:05:32.639 --> 00:05:34.240 So right, where is he wrong on that? 110 00:05:34.839 --> 00:05:36.800 So where he's wrong is he's trying to have it 111 00:05:36.839 --> 00:05:39.040 both ways. He and Peter Navarro and other people like 112 00:05:39.079 --> 00:05:41.800 that say two things at the same time. They say, 113 00:05:42.160 --> 00:05:44.519 terifts are going to push people to buy American and 114 00:05:44.600 --> 00:05:48.079 tariff's are going to raise six or seven hundred billion 115 00:05:48.120 --> 00:05:48.720 dollars a year. 116 00:05:48.759 --> 00:05:49.800 Well, which is it. 117 00:05:50.199 --> 00:05:51.680 They're only going to raise a lot of money if 118 00:05:51.720 --> 00:05:54.480 they're not buying American and which case, you haven't achieved 119 00:05:54.519 --> 00:05:56.800 that goal. And if they are buying American, then they 120 00:05:56.800 --> 00:05:59.279 won't raise the money, and then you won't have achieved 121 00:05:59.439 --> 00:06:02.639 that goal. So you can't try to do both at 122 00:06:02.639 --> 00:06:04.560 the same time. You can do one or the other. 123 00:06:04.600 --> 00:06:07.160 And the fact that they keep saying that they're going 124 00:06:07.199 --> 00:06:10.759 to try to do both shows either that they're pretty 125 00:06:10.800 --> 00:06:13.839 dumb when it comes to economics, or they assume we're 126 00:06:13.839 --> 00:06:16.680 pretty dumb when it comes to economics. The other thing 127 00:06:16.720 --> 00:06:18.360 i'd say, Dan, in response to the last part of 128 00:06:18.360 --> 00:06:21.319 what you said, there's absolutely no reason to think that 129 00:06:21.439 --> 00:06:24.399 anything that starts being made here that is currently being 130 00:06:24.439 --> 00:06:26.920 made somewhere else will be less expensive. When it's being 131 00:06:26.920 --> 00:06:28.560 made here, It's going to be anywhere from a little 132 00:06:28.560 --> 00:06:31.519 bit more expensive to a lot more expensive, and we 133 00:06:31.560 --> 00:06:33.879 are all going to be poorer because we won't be 134 00:06:33.879 --> 00:06:36.560 able to afford to buy what we used to buy. 135 00:06:36.759 --> 00:06:39.920 Well, let me challenge that assumption first, and that is, 136 00:06:40.360 --> 00:06:42.800 if that assumes at this point just a lack of 137 00:06:42.839 --> 00:06:48.279 American ingenuity, innovation, etc. That would then reduce costs. I understand, 138 00:06:48.319 --> 00:06:50.360 our labor costs are always going to be higher, right, 139 00:06:51.319 --> 00:06:54.279 which is another reason I think to be very concerned 140 00:06:54.279 --> 00:06:57.319 about that the current status quo, because in a lot 141 00:06:57.319 --> 00:07:00.360 of ways we're just you know, fueling at this point, 142 00:07:00.439 --> 00:07:02.519 kind of this slave labor around the rest of the world. 143 00:07:02.519 --> 00:07:05.920 But coming back to domestic purchases because it hits most 144 00:07:05.959 --> 00:07:09.240 people right who are just understandably very sensitive to those 145 00:07:09.279 --> 00:07:12.399 price points. But I think your view and I understand 146 00:07:12.439 --> 00:07:14.839 the logic behind it, but I don't think it takes 147 00:07:14.839 --> 00:07:19.360 into account American innovation and true free market competition, which 148 00:07:19.360 --> 00:07:21.519 I know you'd be a great champion of, you know, 149 00:07:21.600 --> 00:07:23.920 and in America then okay, you know, if we want 150 00:07:23.959 --> 00:07:25.839 people to buy American, we're going to have to to 151 00:07:25.920 --> 00:07:29.439 compete price wise, quality wise, et cetera. And then I 152 00:07:29.439 --> 00:07:32.079 think historically Americans have shown that they do a pretty 153 00:07:32.160 --> 00:07:35.279 darn good job of innovating to accomplish that. 154 00:07:36.879 --> 00:07:41.160 So I think it could play out the way that 155 00:07:41.199 --> 00:07:43.800 you say we and in fact I will I will 156 00:07:43.800 --> 00:07:47.040 agree with you in a certain sense here. I frequently 157 00:07:47.319 --> 00:07:53.680 remind listeners that when you're buying stocks, most of the time, 158 00:07:54.480 --> 00:07:57.439 you're not really betting on the politicians. You are betting 159 00:07:57.519 --> 00:08:01.720 on the incredible entrepreneurial spirit and creativity of. 160 00:08:02.720 --> 00:08:05.399 American business owners and creators. 161 00:08:05.399 --> 00:08:07.399 And I think of that in the sense that I 162 00:08:07.439 --> 00:08:10.240 had a lot of friends, conservative friends who refused to 163 00:08:10.240 --> 00:08:13.279 buy stocks when Obama was present because they thought nothing 164 00:08:13.319 --> 00:08:15.839 good could possibly happen while that guy was president. And 165 00:08:15.879 --> 00:08:18.199 it turned out there was a massive stock market rally 166 00:08:18.199 --> 00:08:21.399 and they all missed it, and it was because they 167 00:08:21.439 --> 00:08:23.360 didn't think that a good thing could happen when someone 168 00:08:23.439 --> 00:08:24.319 like that was present. 169 00:08:24.560 --> 00:08:26.079 So we got to separate those things. 170 00:08:26.480 --> 00:08:30.439 So I will grant you that it is that I'm 171 00:08:30.480 --> 00:08:33.879 always willing to bet on American ingenuity. The issue is 172 00:08:34.639 --> 00:08:37.399 that the timeframes don't match. So I had a guest 173 00:08:37.399 --> 00:08:40.080 on my show today who is VP of the biggest 174 00:08:40.080 --> 00:08:44.639 technology trade association in the world, and what he said 175 00:08:44.799 --> 00:08:51.879 was Trump is trying to push manufacturing technology. Manufacturing to 176 00:08:52.240 --> 00:08:56.960 change in a year or two in a way that 177 00:08:57.039 --> 00:09:00.360 will require, if you were lucky, five years, but probably 178 00:09:00.440 --> 00:09:05.399 more like ten. And so that's the problem, right, So 179 00:09:05.600 --> 00:09:07.759 let's say we could get to what you're talking about 180 00:09:08.039 --> 00:09:10.440 with Americans making the stuff instead of it being made 181 00:09:10.480 --> 00:09:11.679 in China in ten years. 182 00:09:11.720 --> 00:09:11.879 Now. 183 00:09:11.879 --> 00:09:15.519 I still don't actually buy your argument that we could make. 184 00:09:15.440 --> 00:09:17.480 It cheaper, but let's just say you could. 185 00:09:18.039 --> 00:09:22.759 What about for the next five years when the iPhone 186 00:09:22.759 --> 00:09:24.440 that you would like to buy instead of being one 187 00:09:24.440 --> 00:09:27.480 thousand dollars, because if tariffs's fifteen hundred dollars, you're either 188 00:09:27.480 --> 00:09:29.519 not going to buy it or you will buy it 189 00:09:29.519 --> 00:09:31.440 and you'll have five hundred dollars less for other things. 190 00:09:32.080 --> 00:09:36.480 It's all economically bad and my take is that the 191 00:09:36.600 --> 00:09:39.200 risk and the cost is not worth the gain. Also, 192 00:09:39.279 --> 00:09:41.799 we only have what four point two percent on employment? 193 00:09:42.159 --> 00:09:44.720 Where are all these workers going to come from? 194 00:09:44.960 --> 00:09:46.799 Hey, can you do another segment? Because there are two 195 00:09:46.840 --> 00:09:49.480 or three points there. I have some respectful disagreement on it, 196 00:09:49.480 --> 00:09:51.360 and i'd like to follow up with you on. But 197 00:09:51.399 --> 00:09:54.240 then i'd also like your take on the bigger question, 198 00:09:54.320 --> 00:09:56.159 which is and I don't mean this in the pejorative, 199 00:09:56.600 --> 00:09:59.600 but you know you've mentioned minions, and I think I 200 00:09:59.679 --> 00:10:02.440 detect a certain tone. I think you're truly very upset 201 00:10:02.480 --> 00:10:05.519 about this. And so the question that i'd ask you 202 00:10:05.600 --> 00:10:07.840 to come back and answer is do you really think 203 00:10:07.879 --> 00:10:10.120 these guys and gals are idiots? Do you think Trump 204 00:10:10.159 --> 00:10:14.200 and his team are just really dumb? And because if 205 00:10:14.200 --> 00:10:17.120 you're right, then that's the way they're acting and I 206 00:10:17.159 --> 00:10:20.320 don't think they're that at all. Rosskominski kind enough to 207 00:10:20.399 --> 00:10:22.000 join us, we'll come back get his take on that. 208 00:10:22.039 --> 00:10:23.600 You're on the Dan Kapla Show. 209 00:10:25.000 --> 00:10:27.399 And now back to the Dan Kaplas Show podcast. 210 00:10:29.879 --> 00:10:32.120 I'm really happy to have Ross Komensky with us. Does 211 00:10:32.120 --> 00:10:35.720 a great show over on our sister station eight fifty KOA. 212 00:10:35.840 --> 00:10:39.159 And we have a much different approach to President Trump's 213 00:10:39.840 --> 00:10:42.799 current tariff plan. And I use that broadly because the 214 00:10:42.799 --> 00:10:47.879 plan includes more than that, obviously, but Ross very opposed, 215 00:10:47.919 --> 00:10:50.039 and we've done a segment together already you can pick 216 00:10:50.039 --> 00:10:52.200 off the pod on that, and we've gone into some 217 00:10:52.240 --> 00:10:55.320 of the specifics. I, on the other hand, I think 218 00:10:55.360 --> 00:10:58.440 that right now the status quo is unacceptable. I think 219 00:10:58.480 --> 00:11:01.039 that we're on a path that's on SoC sustainable and 220 00:11:01.080 --> 00:11:03.480 I do trust Trump. I think he's earned that trust 221 00:11:03.559 --> 00:11:06.440 on economic matters, and I respect the fact he's willing 222 00:11:06.480 --> 00:11:09.799 to endure some pain politically to try to write the ship. 223 00:11:09.879 --> 00:11:13.200 So that's where we resume our conversation and Ross, as 224 00:11:13.240 --> 00:11:16.120 we set the table for those who just joined us, 225 00:11:16.360 --> 00:11:20.120 I think I understand you correctly that if this was 226 00:11:20.960 --> 00:11:23.919 a relatively short term play to get leverage to cut 227 00:11:23.960 --> 00:11:27.120 some deals, etc. You wouldn't have the same level of concern. 228 00:11:27.639 --> 00:11:29.600 You believe though, that this is not that. 229 00:11:29.799 --> 00:11:33.279 It's instead the president looking to put in place Tariff's 230 00:11:33.519 --> 00:11:36.360 long term as a source of revenue and for the 231 00:11:36.399 --> 00:11:39.360 other purposes, he stated, And you believe that that's going 232 00:11:39.440 --> 00:11:41.759 to be disastrous. Is that a fair summary? 233 00:11:43.200 --> 00:11:46.159 That is a fair summary. And just one other really 234 00:11:46.320 --> 00:11:49.120 random thing. I will buy you a beer if you 235 00:11:49.159 --> 00:11:51.840 can tell me the name of the band or musician 236 00:11:52.559 --> 00:11:55.440 for the bumper music that the song coming into the 237 00:11:55.480 --> 00:11:56.799 segment that Ryan just played. 238 00:11:56.879 --> 00:11:57.600 I'm going to have to. 239 00:11:57.519 --> 00:11:59.840 Buy my own beer, my friend. I don't recognize most 240 00:12:00.080 --> 00:12:00.759 what he plays, but. 241 00:12:00.720 --> 00:12:01.440 It sounds good. 242 00:12:02.279 --> 00:12:02.840 Yeah, it was. 243 00:12:02.960 --> 00:12:07.159 It's h Dave Davis of the Kinks, the less famous 244 00:12:07.240 --> 00:12:07.840 Kink's brother. 245 00:12:08.120 --> 00:12:10.799 It's a Kinks song, but it was Dave's song. Sorry, 246 00:12:10.840 --> 00:12:11.840 and it's my favorite band. 247 00:12:11.879 --> 00:12:14.360 And I've never heard that played a bumper music, so 248 00:12:14.480 --> 00:12:15.240 I just loved it. 249 00:12:15.399 --> 00:12:17.759 Yeah, I didn't know any of those brothers are famous. 250 00:12:17.759 --> 00:12:20.720 But no, I'll tell you, thirty or so years on air, 251 00:12:20.759 --> 00:12:23.759 I don't know. I've never seen anybody a fraction as 252 00:12:23.759 --> 00:12:26.960 good as Ryan when it comes to music. But hey, 253 00:12:27.240 --> 00:12:29.480 let me ask you, my friend, and you know, I 254 00:12:29.519 --> 00:12:31.879 know we disagree on some specific points. I want to 255 00:12:31.879 --> 00:12:33.360 follow up with you on, and I want to start 256 00:12:33.399 --> 00:12:34.879 with one of them, but then I really want to 257 00:12:34.919 --> 00:12:38.639 get to what your fix would be, because if you're 258 00:12:38.639 --> 00:12:40.799 new to the show or the area, Ross isn't one 259 00:12:40.840 --> 00:12:43.559 of these guys who criticizes Trump on everything. As he 260 00:12:43.600 --> 00:12:46.320 started the show with, you probably support what percent of 261 00:12:46.320 --> 00:12:51.279 Trump's policies eighty to ninety okay, And so I do 262 00:12:51.360 --> 00:12:54.919 want to get to what your fix would be. But 263 00:12:55.240 --> 00:12:57.600 let me ask you the there are so many reasons 264 00:12:57.639 --> 00:13:00.960 why in concept I like what in Trump's doing. And 265 00:13:01.039 --> 00:13:03.960 one of those is something I know you care deeply about, 266 00:13:04.279 --> 00:13:09.039 which is national security. And you know, whether it's a 267 00:13:09.080 --> 00:13:12.000 prescription drugs, which right now we import. I think it's 268 00:13:12.039 --> 00:13:15.440 almost eighty or ninety percent of into this country, whether 269 00:13:15.480 --> 00:13:18.360 it's Ammo, whether it's steel, whether it's lots of other things. 270 00:13:18.399 --> 00:13:22.279 We're depending on other nations, including to a disturbing extent, China. 271 00:13:22.399 --> 00:13:26.440 For what about the national security benefit of what he's doing. 272 00:13:27.639 --> 00:13:31.919 So I think that China is a special case, and 273 00:13:32.320 --> 00:13:36.720 I think it deserves its own conversation that we can 274 00:13:36.759 --> 00:13:41.360 have or or not. But I would separate China from 275 00:13:42.399 --> 00:13:45.919 all of our other major trading partners. I would not 276 00:13:46.120 --> 00:13:49.480 and do not want to be reliant on China for 277 00:13:49.559 --> 00:13:54.120 anything really important. I think it's dumb how reliant we 278 00:13:54.159 --> 00:13:59.279 are on China for pharmaceutical precursors, for rare earth minerals 279 00:13:59.759 --> 00:14:04.559 and and some other things. I would not be upset 280 00:14:04.639 --> 00:14:09.000 with being pretty reliant for those things on our allies, 281 00:14:09.200 --> 00:14:11.960 on Japan, on Korea, on Canada and Mexico and so on, 282 00:14:12.399 --> 00:14:15.919 all this stuff. And there's just a very fundamental concept 283 00:14:15.919 --> 00:14:20.679 in economics of comparative advantage that we shouldn't try to 284 00:14:20.720 --> 00:14:23.720 make everything ourselves, even things that are very important. There 285 00:14:23.720 --> 00:14:25.360 are some of them that we should not try to 286 00:14:25.399 --> 00:14:28.919 make ourselves. But I wouldn't be reliant on a country 287 00:14:28.919 --> 00:14:32.799 that is sort of drifting from competitor to enemy for 288 00:14:32.919 --> 00:14:33.960 things we have to have. 289 00:14:35.720 --> 00:14:38.159 And then obviously it gets more complex from there, and 290 00:14:38.159 --> 00:14:40.679 there's obviously an area of common ground when it comes 291 00:14:40.720 --> 00:14:43.279 to China. So to a certain extent, you know you 292 00:14:43.279 --> 00:14:46.600 would support aggressive tariffs on China. I assume I know 293 00:14:46.679 --> 00:14:49.039 that you're aware that President Trump, I think it was 294 00:14:49.080 --> 00:14:52.919 an eighteen levied some pretty significant tariffs on China that 295 00:14:52.960 --> 00:14:56.279 have been very effective to a point, and Biden even 296 00:14:56.440 --> 00:14:59.000 I think, continued most of those. But what do you 297 00:14:59.039 --> 00:15:03.399 do then about because obviously communists cheat and China cheating 298 00:15:03.440 --> 00:15:05.799 and learning a lot of stuff now through Vietnam and 299 00:15:06.000 --> 00:15:08.879 maybe some other countries as well. So if you're in 300 00:15:08.919 --> 00:15:11.879 Trump shoes, how do you address all that without doing 301 00:15:11.960 --> 00:15:14.799 something broader than just China. 302 00:15:15.519 --> 00:15:20.559 Well, this is why these people get elected and have 303 00:15:20.639 --> 00:15:21.639 these very difficult jobs. 304 00:15:21.679 --> 00:15:23.039 These are the hardest questions. 305 00:15:23.440 --> 00:15:25.519 And you said, you know, I, you know, you assume 306 00:15:25.559 --> 00:15:28.639 I'd be in favor of very aggressive tariffs on China. 307 00:15:28.720 --> 00:15:30.360 I don't know that that's true. 308 00:15:31.480 --> 00:15:34.360 We have to be very surgical about this, and we 309 00:15:34.399 --> 00:15:38.559 have to remember that Americans, Americans buy an immense amount 310 00:15:38.559 --> 00:15:39.559 of stuff from China. 311 00:15:39.600 --> 00:15:40.600 But normally, when. 312 00:15:40.480 --> 00:15:43.840 You have the conversation in an environment like this where 313 00:15:43.919 --> 00:15:45.639 you know, we're on the radio, when we're and we 314 00:15:45.720 --> 00:15:48.600 talk about lots of things, it's not a nerdy Econ 315 00:15:48.799 --> 00:15:51.440 show that you and I do every day, although I'm 316 00:15:51.519 --> 00:15:55.559 nerdier than you are on Econ sometimes. But Americans think 317 00:15:55.639 --> 00:15:59.840 of the stuff that's coming from China. They think about tennis, 318 00:15:59.840 --> 00:16:03.519 se use, tupperware, you know, final goods, cheap stuff that 319 00:16:03.559 --> 00:16:06.639 you're buying and using yourself. But an enormous percent I 320 00:16:06.679 --> 00:16:09.519 think Somewhere around half of stuff that we buy from 321 00:16:09.600 --> 00:16:14.480 China is stuff that American companies use to make other things. 322 00:16:14.960 --> 00:16:18.480 And if you start tariffing that stuff, then you make 323 00:16:18.559 --> 00:16:23.919 the inputs to American companies more expensive. And that's very 324 00:16:23.960 --> 00:16:27.600 bad for the American companies and for American consumers. 325 00:16:28.039 --> 00:16:31.320 And that's why this is so difficult. 326 00:16:31.519 --> 00:16:35.679 But why couldn't that stuff also be made here? Well? 327 00:16:35.879 --> 00:16:38.759 It could, but the question is could it be made? Okay, 328 00:16:38.759 --> 00:16:41.039 So give you an example. I was listening to a 329 00:16:41.039 --> 00:16:43.440 guy this morning on one of the financial news networks 330 00:16:43.480 --> 00:16:46.279 I forget which one, and a very very well respected 331 00:16:46.320 --> 00:16:50.600 technology analyst tech stock analyst, and he said, based on 332 00:16:50.639 --> 00:16:56.039 his own homework, he said, iPhone that is largely assembled 333 00:16:56.039 --> 00:16:58.720 in China that you buy for one thousand dollars, if 334 00:16:58.759 --> 00:17:00.320 it were to be made in America. 335 00:17:00.159 --> 00:17:01.720 Would cost you three thousand dollars. 336 00:17:02.279 --> 00:17:04.960 Now, I don't know about you, Dan, and there's not 337 00:17:05.039 --> 00:17:09.640 a sarcastic comment. I absolutely would not pay three thousand 338 00:17:09.680 --> 00:17:12.880 dollars for an iPhone, which would mean I'd just keep 339 00:17:12.880 --> 00:17:15.079 my old phone for a long time until it's useless, 340 00:17:15.119 --> 00:17:18.200 and then I'd find something else. For the people who 341 00:17:18.279 --> 00:17:21.279 do pay three thousand then they have two thousand dollars 342 00:17:21.359 --> 00:17:22.720 less to buy other things? 343 00:17:23.079 --> 00:17:26.759 Right, But doesn't that ignore the secret sauce of America? Right? 344 00:17:26.799 --> 00:17:29.279 And this isn't cheerleading. We've seen it in Natch, the 345 00:17:29.319 --> 00:17:33.319 secret sauce, which is free market competition in a market 346 00:17:33.319 --> 00:17:36.799 this big, a population this big and well educated where yeah, 347 00:17:36.799 --> 00:17:39.359 that's what it might be today. But then you turn 348 00:17:39.440 --> 00:17:42.920 free market competition loose on that ingenuity, et cetera, and 349 00:17:43.000 --> 00:17:44.880 you'll never be able to make it as cheaply as 350 00:17:44.960 --> 00:17:48.359 China right where they're probably using slave labor to make it, 351 00:17:48.400 --> 00:17:51.319 which is another big concern, But you're going to make 352 00:17:51.359 --> 00:17:53.480 in roads there, which leads to another question, Rouss, can 353 00:17:53.519 --> 00:17:54.359 you do another segment? 354 00:17:55.079 --> 00:17:55.359 Sure? 355 00:17:55.759 --> 00:17:58.960 Because I'd love to know is the status quo acceptable? 356 00:17:59.000 --> 00:17:59.880 And what would your fix be? 357 00:18:00.119 --> 00:18:02.359 Us, as a smart guy thinks a lot about this stuff, 358 00:18:02.400 --> 00:18:06.359 we obviously disagree, but really interesting what his solution would 359 00:18:06.400 --> 00:18:07.799 be Around the Dan Capitlis Show. 360 00:18:13.799 --> 00:18:17.400 You're listening to the Dan Kapliss Show podcast, what is. 361 00:18:17.359 --> 00:18:20.640 Your reaction and what is the impact on your cans? 362 00:18:20.720 --> 00:18:23.319 You work them to spending more on defense, which they 363 00:18:23.319 --> 00:18:26.319 are agreeing to finally, but how can they do that 364 00:18:26.359 --> 00:18:29.559 when their economies are crashing, and they are now No. 365 00:18:30.279 --> 00:18:32.279 No, no, no, no no, Their economies are not crashing. The 366 00:18:32.400 --> 00:18:35.039 markets are reacting. No, their economies are not crashing. Their 367 00:18:35.079 --> 00:18:38.599 markets are reacting to a dramatic change in the global 368 00:18:38.720 --> 00:18:41.000 order in terms of trade. And so what happens is 369 00:18:41.000 --> 00:18:43.680 pretty straightforward. If you're a company and you make a 370 00:18:43.680 --> 00:18:46.200 bunch of your products in China and all of a sudden, 371 00:18:46.839 --> 00:18:49.960 shareholders are people that play the stock market realize that 372 00:18:50.000 --> 00:18:51.920 it's going to cost a lot more to produce. 373 00:18:51.640 --> 00:18:53.599 In China, your stock is going to go down. 374 00:18:54.000 --> 00:18:56.279 But ultimately, the markets as long as as long as 375 00:18:56.319 --> 00:18:58.319 they know what the rules are going to be moving forward, 376 00:18:58.359 --> 00:19:00.359 and as long as that sentence and you can staying 377 00:19:00.559 --> 00:19:03.599 where you're going to be, the markets will adjust businesses 378 00:19:03.640 --> 00:19:06.079 around the world, including in trade and global trade. 379 00:19:06.240 --> 00:19:07.559 They just need to know what the rules are. 380 00:19:07.680 --> 00:19:09.440 Once they know what the rules are, they will adjust 381 00:19:09.480 --> 00:19:10.440 to those rules. 382 00:19:11.240 --> 00:19:13.920 Hey, Rosskominsky, our guest right now, does a great show 383 00:19:13.960 --> 00:19:16.440 over an eight to fifty ka nine to new iconic 384 00:19:16.519 --> 00:19:19.720 time slot held for many years by Mike Rosen kind 385 00:19:19.799 --> 00:19:23.920 enough to join us. We disagree about the let's call 386 00:19:23.960 --> 00:19:25.920 it the Trump tariff plan at this point. I think 387 00:19:25.960 --> 00:19:28.960 there's much more involved in that. We've had a very 388 00:19:29.000 --> 00:19:32.799 detailed conversation over the last three segments. We won't rehash here, 389 00:19:33.240 --> 00:19:36.200 but Ross really appreciates you staying around because I want 390 00:19:36.240 --> 00:19:41.039 to get to kind of this seminal question of Okay, 391 00:19:41.359 --> 00:19:44.279 we disagree, but what would your solution be? Because I 392 00:19:44.400 --> 00:19:46.960 know that we both want the same thing in the end, 393 00:19:47.000 --> 00:19:52.640 We want a healthy, thriving, secure, prospering America, and we 394 00:19:52.759 --> 00:19:55.799 disagree right now about whether Trump's approach is more likely 395 00:19:55.839 --> 00:19:56.960 to get us there than others. 396 00:19:57.000 --> 00:19:58.480 But what would your fix be? 397 00:20:00.119 --> 00:20:02.039 That's a great question, I think. 398 00:20:03.640 --> 00:20:07.880 I think what's so difficult about this conversation about tariffs 399 00:20:07.920 --> 00:20:13.559 in particular is that people tend to focus only on 400 00:20:14.720 --> 00:20:18.920 the barriers that a tariff imposed by the US would 401 00:20:18.960 --> 00:20:22.599