Speaker 1: All right, guys, welcome in. It is time for another
edition of Full Court Press. As always, we have to
recap the night before. I had a good night for
clients and I ended up playing one play. It was Binghamton.
They found a way to win that game out right,
So that was a nice winner for me. But Rob Bino,
I ruined the parlay, And of course I was at
the game that I used for the parlay, Floida Golf
Coast in North Florida, and so I want to come
on and acknowledge that, but also give a couple takeaways
from that game that you might be able to use
in the a Sun tournament next week. So Floda Golf
Coast at a nine point lead at halftime, I kind
of was like, all right, we're just you know, it
kind of felt like one of those games where we
would sort of just maintain that and win by nine
or ten points. They got Not only did they lose
the second half, they lost the game after being up
nine and a half. And my takeaways were North Florida
did not look like a six and twenty three team
played much better than like even just watching them play
did not look like a six and twenty three team,
and that Florida Gulf Coast team is very average. In hindsight,
I wish I didn't lay points with them, because that's
just we've kind of talked about it at times. Not
the best basketball team, and I think they had a
little bit of a fraudulent win streak, so I would
be willing to fade.
Speaker 2: Then.
Speaker 1: The other thing you guys need to know is this
is the first year that the Atlantic Sun is not
going to play campus site tournament venues. However, two of
the campus sites from the Atlantic Sun are hosting portions
of the tournament. So what I found out last night
is Jacksonville is hosting the tournament at I believe it's
Swisher Gym and Jacksonville UNF Arena and North Florida, and
then I think the final they may use like Veterans Memorial,
like the Big Arena downtown. So it'll be interesting to
see how that conference tournament plays out. Being a neutral site.
I don't think they're gonna let like JU and UNF
are not going to be allowed to play at their
home venue. So you know, we learned something last night. Stan,
who's always in the chat. Great to meet you, came
out for the game. We had a great time, So yeah,
it was it was a good night in North Florida
or in Jacksonville at North Florida. I wish we had
a better result in the parlay, but shout out to you,
rob being no great call on Montana State. Hopefully some
people just played that straight because of course the FGCU
game was over before Montana State tipped off, and what else,
how did your Thursday night go outside of the Montana
State winner?
Speaker 2: So Montana State was part of a three and one
Thursday night and it missed four and O was missed
by one point. The loser was the Idaho team total
over seventy eight and a half. They got the seventy eight.
So we got stuck right on the edge of the
cliff with that one. But otherwise Montana State got home
Jacksonville Jacksonville State. Excuse me, you got a little lucky there, Adam,
because the overtime is the place where underdogs go to die.
And sure enough, Delaware. The reason why I made the
play was basically, it's a six man rotation where everybody's
got to go forty and boy, Delaware played terrific basketball,
gritty basketball for forty minutes and then when overtime took hold,
you found out that they're a little bit fatigued at
this point. Another long trip to Jacksonville State, which is
in Alabama. We've talked about CUSA trips. A lot of
credit to Delaware last night, but I benefited from the
extra five minutes because Jacksonville had a lot. Jacksonville State,
excuse me, had a lot left in the tank and
Delaware did not. And any other play you know, why
not go back to one of your favorites, cal Poly
team total over eighty one and a half, they get
to one hundred and two. Probably should have played it
a little stronger than I did, but recap here with
Binghamton the double. The CBB Firepower Package goes four and
one again last night after a seven and zero the
previous night, So eleven won the last two nights. Those
of you who just picked up and joined or purchased
a package either three day or full season remainder of season,
we're off to a seven and excuse me, an eleven
and one start here, So good news on the package front, Adam.
Hopefully we continue that or we'll try to continue that
here tonight.
Speaker 1: Great day to a never a better day than right
now to sign up, because I've already locked in a
five percenter tonight and it's Friday, so it's essentially the
weekend package. You'll get all Saturday and Sunday, and Rob
this is we got to get into it. Oh before
we get into it, shout out to our chat because
Garth had the team total under in Missouri Kansas City,
which hit and our pal that played cal Poly, we
talked about it on the show on the show yesterday,
no reason to not think cal Poly would would win
that game comfortably, and they won the game comfortably, dropped
one hundred on Long Beach State, so you win with
the team total and I forget who that was in
the chat, but someone had Polly minus five and a
half for a winner as well. So we are going
to get into it today. Garth, I see you in there,
and he already wants to talk about the sun Belt,
which we could do the whole show. I honestly, we
can do the whole hour on the sun Belt today,
but we've got to start with one of the biggest
games of the weekend. So let's head out to Champagne, Illinois.
First feature game, Michigan Illinois feature game Robino and arguably
one of the best games of the entire Big Ten season.
Right here, you got Michigan as a short road favorite,
Illinois obviously gonna be tough on their home court. What
do you do with Michigan and Illinois. We know it's
going to be a great game.
Speaker 2: You know, I want in the worst way to be
on the home team here Illinois because I just feel
as if Michigan is and rightfully so. Listen, in Michigan's
done what they've done this year, they deserve everybody's utmost respect.
But I feel like this separation of respect heading into
this game between media, written material, et cetera, et cetera,
all the way to the networks, right.
Speaker 3: They just seem to be all over the Michigan side.
Speaker 2: And for me, when you go through this, Adam, and
of course when you respond, you could look at it
and tell me what you think of this. But personnel wise,
to me, Illinois is a team with two you know,
I don't know if I can call Boswell an NBA
point guard, but let's say this, they have two elite
point guards at this point in time. I think they
discovered Wagler along the way when Boswell got hurt. You
come back with the two Ivasich guys who can both
drag Mara away from the rim because Illinois two seven
footer shoot threes. I know Mara likes to plant himself
under the rim and use the seven three, seven to four,
whatever it is. But maybe somebody else is going to
have to try and deter the seven footers from shooting
threes here. If a couple of them go, it makes
life difficult for Michigan. Yes, Lindeborg is a tremendous player
NBA lottery pick. However, on the other side, playing the
same position as him, basically as Mirkovich for Illinois, who's
been dominant at times offensively, andres Stoyakovich, who's been dominant
at times offensively, I mean ben Himarcus comes off the
bench and basically can light it up from three hummerkous
excuse me? So when I go through this, I just
think Illinois's got as many options for scoring here a Michigan.
Does they match up? Well, They've got the same type
of length, et cetera, et cetera. The problem I run
into in this game is the difference in tempo. Bothers
me a little bit Michigan's the fastest tempo team in
a Big Ten. Illinois very very slow, moderate deliberate. I mean,
their possession numbers are way down there as far as
pace of play is concerned. Now, can they go ultra
slow and take on the Michigan half court defense all
game long without going through some sort of a scoring drought,
we'll see. It seems like nobody really puts Illinois into
a scoring drug or very rarely does that occur. Michigan's
got the defensive ability to do so. So you'd rather
have Illinois at least be a mid type tempo team
where you know we're going to see some outlets, some breaks,
maybe some opportunity. Brad Underwood maybe he'll coach it into
them tonight. I'm not in on their meetings, but let's
run when we get the chance, because we don't want
to set up against these guys where Michigan's gonna go
up and down the floor, get some easy buckets, et cetera,
et cetera. Home floor means a lot in Champagne to me.
But Michigan's been in tough venues before and might as
well say it now, Adam, because we've talked about it
since the Michigan State game.
Speaker 3: When you get Michigan in this price range, it's.
Speaker 2: Hard to ignore, so for me the side became more difficult.
Speaker 3: Then the total Illinois is so efficient.
Speaker 2: That maybe you know, the pace doesn't drag this total
down and it gets up and over fifty one point
fifty eight. There's been a push towards that over since
the overnight opened at two and excuse me, one fifty
five and a half two and a half point moved
towards the total. I still think it might get over.
You know, Illinois, even with their pace, finds their way
to eighty in most instances, or at least high seventies,
And honestly, I don't know that Illinois stop.
Speaker 3: Michigan from doing so.
Speaker 2: So for me, I think my strongest lean here is
going to be toward over one fifty eight. If you're
shopping really really well, there's four or five six, one
fifty seven and a half's out there that you can
still pick off. So I think for intent of this
analysis and time of day we're doing this, I would
use one fifty seven and a half as my stance
here on this game. Michigan Illinois up and over one
fifty seven and a half. Great game, just a little
bit of difference in tempo style. Otherwise, I think Illinois
personnel wise matches up.
Speaker 3: Really really well with Michigan.
Speaker 1: Rob we joined forces for a eleven am over yesterday
that that soared over in the Charleston Hampton games. So
I think we're going to do it again for the
future game here. That's that's the way I look as well,
would be toward the over now. Listen, Illinois is not
a bad defensive team when you look at the when
you look at the overall rankings, I don't think anyone
looks at Illinois's as well, this is a bad defensive team,
or they're not like they're you know, they they're on
the kind of the fringe of the top thirty. I
think most would say that's pretty good. But I don't
think they defend the way that you need to defend
to keep Michigan from scoring. If you look, it's very interesting.
But to me, like the teams that Michigan has struggled
to score on have not necessarily been the best defensive
teams that they face. It's like TCU comes to mind
that small you know, we've talked about them on the
show a couple of times where they've got the really
aggressive guards that are gonna just make life miserable, fear
ball handlers like those. That's the type of team that
tends to give Michigan trouble and that's not really what
Illinois is gonna do. Illinois will play some zone. Michigan
has no problem with zone. So for me, like I
do think Michigan scores their sheriff points. I think, like
again going back to what we you know, going back
to our breakdown of Michigan Michigan state that you reference
from a few weeks back, you know, you get Michigan
in this price range, it's it's tough to pass up,
like because I still think you look at Michigan and
they're they're a cut above like almost anyone else in
the country. And I still think I still think they're
even a cut above Illinois, even with how good Illinois
is offensively. But there's certainly like paths to victory for
Illinois in this game as well. To the point where
you know you talked about obviously the hype, home spot,
tremendous crowd, definitely need to factor that in the fact
that Illinois, if they could shoot it and and they're
hot shooting the ball, like they could win a high
scoring game. But for me, like I don't really want to,
I don't really want to have to rely on Illinois
sort of like playing out of their minds to cast
your ticket because again, there's no wiggle room here, very
little at least, Like you basically need Illinois to win
to win the bet, and I'm not just not really
comfortable doing that against Michigan, especially when you know how
many times are you gonna be able to do that
against Michigan, this Michigan team in a season, and you
basically were able to do it last Saturday with Duke
right taking Duke is the very very short dog and
they and they won the game. But I'll argue that
Duke was a much tougher matchup for Michigan than Illinois
is in terms of being able to put the ball
in the basket and play the game that they want
to play. So Robino, I'm with you. Points in this
game is if I was gonna bet this one, which
I'm not, it would it would have to just be
points in the over because it's just too it's too
coin flip for me on the side, and I just
did again, I feel like if you, if you play
an under here, you're kind of praying on Illinois having
a rough shooting night, and I wouldn't want to bet
against that because they're home and it's a big spot
for them. So I'll call it over with you as well.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Illinois has so many scoring options at him. If
it's not Waggler, it can be Stoyakovic, it could be Murkovich.
I mean, they've got plenty of options that Michigan's going
to have to defend here. And to be honest with you,
they didn't do a superior job defending Dukes guys the
one intangible here And again, Elliott Caddou did just recently
have an off night. And Elliot Caddou has been a
real spark plug for this team. He helps that interior
play because he stretches the defense out with the three
point shooting that he's had this year. And Boswell may
be one of the best hounds. I guess you would
call him because when you said TCU guards bothered Michigan,
and that triggered this thought that Boswell is that guy. Defensively,
Caddo's going to have a somewhat tough time here unless
Illinois is forced to pack it in against you know,
Michigan's base because they can't handle him. But if that's
not the case here, Elliot caddo is going to know
he's being guarded tonight by Boswell. Now, of course, Michigan,
just like I said about Illinois, has so many other
options it may not matter, but I still think Elliot
caddou has to be a factor in this game for
Michigan to win, at least somewhat of a factor. So
I'm gonna stick to total here because I just like
the massive amount of offensive options that are on the
floor here. And I do think I know I said
earlier Illinois and of course statistically proven out that Illinois
is a slower tempo team, but I do think they'll
take their opportunities. I mean, having watched them play six, seven,
eight times this year, they're not necessarily a snails pace
maybe overall, you know, majority of the game they prefer
half courts. Kind of the brat underwood Way since he
was at Steven F. Austin years ago. But I think
they're gonna take their opportunities to get out and go,
especially on their own home floor.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that should be a it's gonna be a great watch.
Obviously the feature game of tonight, but there's a lot
of other games, so let's move on. Well, like I said,
I joked about it, but what a night for the
Sun Belt Conference. I love that they do this. They've
been doing this for years where they play everyone plays
the final The final slate of Sun Belt games is
always this Friday, and rob it is. It is arguably
as impactful of any final slate of games because of
the way they organize their conference tournament. I mean you're
talking about you're talking about like potentially having to play
two extra games. Some people would even have to, like
their scenarios tonight, where a team with a loss might
have to play like two additional games than they would
have played had they won. Like that. That is how
crazy the scenarios are in the Sunbelt. For two reasons.
One it's a gauntlet format in the conference tournament, and
two there's like six or seven teams with very similar records,
so it's like there's a lot of different spots up
for grabs. These are two teams. So let's go to
Garth here, he says he got back on track last
night with UMKC. Yes, that was a great call. He said,
he's looking at the sun Belt tonight with Coastal and
James Madison, and he likes the over one thirty nine
and a half. So I'll let you talk about the total.
I guess what I'll say real quick about Coastal Carolina
overs is like so me personally, I found them to
be kind of stagnant offensively at times where they will
they will sort of stand around and like wait for
someone to do something. I've noticed that with them at
different points during the season. However, they do have some
shot makers on this team. That's one thing if you're
talking about you know, they've got guards that can can
fill it up. Aj Dantler came over from Lemoyne. Guy
plays no defense. He's just I mean, he would you know.
The part of the reason Leamoyn had a hard time
last years because they had a bunch of these scorers
that just didn't do anything on the defensive end, and
he was one of them. But I see he's caught
on nicely at Coastal fifteen point seven points per game.
He got another local guy, well not not really local,
but I got confused it was Josh Beto was at BC.
He's leading the team with seventeen points per game. And
then Rashid Jones, who was my favorite from last year's
team when I went down to Conway and I got
to see this team play and pretty much knew they
would be better this year than last year. He's the
one that is just a big time shot maker. Could
have two guys on him, he's gonna pull up and
be able to put the ball in the basket. So
talk to me about this game, about this total, because
again I haven't loved the Coastal's floor spacing at times,
and I don't think they run great offense, but they've
got a trio of guards that can put the ball
in the basket. And you know, if you can put
the ball in the hoop, that is the name still
the name of this game, Rob Above all out. So
do you have any interest in the Side and Coastal
James man Madison, and do you agree with Garth that
there's going to be points in this one?
Speaker 2: You know, just to start real quick here, Adam, this
Sunbelt Final night is so crazy that it I don't
know whatever time it was two thirty this morning, two
thirty five am this morning, whatever, I had to take
the X and just comment on how crazy this last
night is going to be and how many things could
change with the results in the Sunbelt tonight. And to
your point, the Sun Belt is such a weird tournament
that the number one through number four seeds, they'll get
four days off before they even.
Speaker 3: Have to play a game.
Speaker 2: The tournament starts, they don't go until we have to
make it through eight and nine and five and six
and whatever, until the one through four even have to place.
What's a huge advantage. I would guess if you're one
through four and there's seven teams that could end up
in that one through four tonight. So just a crazy,
crazy frenzy night the sun Belt. It'll be fun to
watch Madison and Coastal. I'm gonna guess that Garth is
playing over because he's just playing the number one thirty
nine and a half, because I find it hard myself
to support a case for these two teams and the
way that they play just getting to one forty. Fundamentally,
they played once over Ady sixty seven to sixty five.
James Madison wins. There's a little revenge on the Coastal
Carolina side. If you're looking to play side, you might
want to look at Coastal here they lost at home,
or you could look at it the other way and say,
James Madison beat them at home. They're certainly gonna beat
them on their home floor. But over the course of
the last eight nine games, Coastal Carolina is only four
and four to the over where this total is concerned.
In other words, four games over one thirty nine and
a half, four games under one thirty nine and a half.
James Madison four games over one thirty nine and a half,
five games under in the last nine. So when you
talked about Coastal being stagnant somewhat, they're just erratic as
far as game.
Speaker 3: Final scores are concerned.
Speaker 2: Could be way up, there could be way down there.
And both of these teams, in my estimation, are better
defensive teams than they are offensive teams. And if you
have the added element of scratching and cloying to move
up in these standings. For Coastal they are one of
those teams that could slide right into the top four
they win tonight. It's possible for JMU they could slide
into that five through eight category. Which earns, you know,
five to six earns three days off, not four, but
three or however many. So they both benefit from a
win here. So I think when you have that in play,
you get a little extra defensive effort. And they're already.
To me, they're already the best units on the floor
are going to be the defenses. So my guess is
gonna be And I don't know this to be true,
but I would say this to Gartha. I think that
one thirty nine and a half is the reason why
you're playing over to ask these two just to get
to one forty from a fundamental standpoint in this particular situation,
I'm not sure. I'm not going to talk you off,
believe me. Just trying to play counter side here, I
probably won't get. Of all the Sunbelt Games tonight, Adam,
I would say that this is the one I didn't
have marked as one to play.
Speaker 3: Just too difficult to handicap.
Speaker 2: So let's root for Garth. Let's get this thing up
and over.
Speaker 3: And see where the chips land.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would agree with that this was of all
the Sunbelt Games, this was the one I was closest
to on the number. I think it was at like
six point one.
Speaker 2: It was.
Speaker 1: It was very close to either. I want to say
this has been in the five and a half to
six and a half range, and you know, I guess
I'll just close it out by going back to the
first meeting. There was one hundred and thirty two points.
You know, you could you could do. Another reason that may,
you know, kind of helped Garth make his case is
the first meeting one thirty two. Yet neither team shot
the lights out like they Neither team shot like considerably
well in that game. Both of these teams rebound the
ball pretty good, So you got a couple of top
one hundred rebounding teams. I think Coastal is like a
top ten rebounding team. But they also I think they
take I think they miss a good amount of shots too.
Like that. That's been my issue with Coastal Carolina offensively
at times, is like they take difficult shots and they
don't really move the ball at all. So when you
watch Coastal Carolina play, it is there is more standing
around than any team I've seen, Like for in the
context of rob good teams, good basketball team teams, I
think we can both agree that Coastal Carolina should be
in the mix when you're talking Sun Belt. They're a
good team. They are one game off the lead in
the league. They're in that group of seven teams that's
either eleven and six or ten and seven in the
sum about Conference this year, this team rarely they don't
pass like they or it's like a pass is out
of necessity, so there's zero ball movement and they take
like every shot as a contested three or mid range shot.
That's what makes it difficult to play the over in
my opinion, because it is there are so many tough shots.
But then you go back to last game and you're
sitting there and you're like, well, you know, Coastal in
that game shot thirty nine percent from the field, went
seven for twenty nine from three, and it was only
seven points off of this number. Right, Like a couple
threes go in. I haven't looked, but it was a
two point final. You get a little extension that would
have gone over easily. So you know, maybe maybe the
accumulation of second chance points and the frequency at which
the shots go up the math might like math out
to getting you over that number. But that's I guess
my thing with Coastal, which is why I kind of
have shied away from playing them, because they've got tough
shot makers and I I like the way they defend
and they're gritty. But to me, they are the type
of team that can go six minutes without scoring the
way they play, and that's what's gotten me out on
Coastal in recent weeks. So I guess we'll just leave
it at that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, another thing just to add real quick, Adam. Offensively,
both of these teams are in the three hundreds as
far as offensive possession length is concerned, so they both
drag it out. And I'll say this having followed Belmont
for you know, as long as my son entered there
fourteen years ago. Preston Spradland was a head coach against
Belmont when he was with Morehead I think. And Preston
Spradland is just a guy that likes to take the
air out of the ball.
Speaker 3: I mean, his career is the same.
Speaker 2: Everywhere he goes. Offensively, they will drain shot clock and
if that happens tonight, you may not get the possession.
Is necessarly an interesting game. And you know what, I
wouldn't put this. The first game was a two point game,
I would not put overtime out of the realm of
possibility in that one, which helped me out with the
side last night. I could always help with a total
play it over.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a good point. It's that that to me
from a from a just a intriguing game standpoint, is
way up there. I just I just with you, Rob,
I didn't have like a great way to get into
that from a side perspective, and I don't do much
with total, So good luck. It will be rooting for
you either way. So good luck if you do decide
to play that. Someone in the chat said, looked like
you had fun last night. Yeah, North North Florida was awesome.
What a great little arena that a building was built
in nineteen ninety three. You would have never guessed it though.
They they amazing branding. They have that osprey a unf
or North Florida on every inch of that building. Like
if you were ever to look at a course like
branding your arena like the way it probably should be.
Like I go way too many places, Rob, where there's
like very little briand like I'm like, who plays here?
Who plays in this building? You know what I mean?
You're in that building, you had you you know who
plays there very clearly. But anyway, yeah, little six thousand seedter,
I really enjoyed that. But I'm gonna I'm gonna segue
into the next game. Here we have a donation because
Arci Colo wants to talk Akron Kent State. And I've
now been to ninety three venues, hundreds of games over
the years, over one hundred games in the last four
years since I've started sort of documenting this journey, and
and still to this date, the the the hottest crowd
of any game and the hottest, like one of one
of the craziest atmospheres I've ever been in was with
Brian Power and Jeff Michaels at the Jar like three
four years ago when act in Kent State. We're both
really good that these two fan bases hate each other.
There's almost always a fight of some sort, whether it
be between fans, whether it be between players. Earlier this
year in Akron, I believe there was a scuffle of
some sort with the players before for the game, which
Rob you know, I think has happened probably six years
in a row. At this point. These two fan bases
can't stand each other, They're twenty minutes away. The two
teams don't like each other. And to me again, they
that night in Akron, they probably sold four hundred too
many tickets. I literally think they oversold, like ga by
like four hundred. There was people standing on the running
track that's around that the upper ring, just trying to
get a look at the game. Yeah, as crazy of
an atmosphere as I've been in. And I don't think
it'll be any different at Kent State. Kent State a
little bit nicer, building, a little bigger. But I fully
ex Kent State to that game sold out at Akron.
I think this will probably be a sellout. I think
typically Akron Kent State is almost always like a sellout,
the best crowd you're gonna get all year, and these
are and Kent State's a team rob amazingly, this team
has not been a home underdog in like seven years,
which is crazy, Like that's crazy to me. I mean
Kent State has been you know, year and year out
in this they're good, like they're always up up toward
towards the top of the MAC. But that was shocking
to me that it's been like I think it's seven years.
It has been since Kent State has been an underdog
at home, and that is what they are here today
for this game with Akron. So I guess we go
back to the first meeting between these two teams again,
that was an Akron home game, and Akron won that
game sixty nine to fifty two. It was a not
the best effort for Kent State. I believe I'm going
off memory here. I think they just straight up could
not hit a shot. Like it was one of those
games where it's almost like they couldn't shoot the ball
as bad as they did if they attempted to shoot
it worse. It was that kind of game for Kent State.
Couldn't blindfolded, they probably make more shots than they did
in that first meeting with Akron. But you know the
argument here, Rob that I think is I think we've
brought it up. I've heard it pretty much the last
couple of weeks is that if Miami, Ohio had a loss,
no one would be talking about Miami of Ohio. They'd
be talking about Akron being the best team in this league.
So my question to you is, do you think Akron
is a little bit underrated because of Miami Ohio, and
does Kent State have any shot in the rematch here
after just getting bludgeoned in the first meeting. You're muted.
I'm muted in you're but you're definitely we're both muted.
Speaker 2: I'll kill you, you know, Akron. And it could have just
been because the way it was positioned inside the schedule,
a game where they didn't play all out. But I
was thoroughly disappointed in Akron in that trip to Troy
on MAC sun Belt Saturday. If ever there was a
spot to just you know, flex a little bit, Akron
should have done it that day and they couldn't against
Troy offensively, they were tied up by that team. Now,
since they got back to MAC playing again, it could
have just been one of those where they're like, we
don't care, we're in the MAC, we'll go play this
thing in Troy, Alabama, and you know, whatever happens happened.
But since they came back to the MAC, I mean
ninety nine against hu Mass, ninety against Western, seventy eight
against ball State. If at ball State was last Friday
night when I laid thirteen and a half and they
won by thirteen, and they were up by like sixteen
with a minute and a half left, So that was
a tough loss. Buffalo they scored ninety nine. Again, Listen,
you're absolut right about Kent not being able to make
a shot in that first game. One of twenty three
from three point range is almost Saint John's esque from
the Connecticut game the other night when Saint John's missed
their final twenty four shots of the game. I think
it was, so one of twenty three just doesn't happen
when you're Kent state. It's not gonna happen again. I would,
you know, I don't know what the odds on that
would be, but I'd be willing to play it. Kent
won't go one for twenty three tonight.
Speaker 3: In this game.
Speaker 2: They also played without Rob Whaley, their third leading scorer
in that one, which does make a difference because Kent
disperses points pretty well. It's not a top heavy scoring team,
so Whaley's importance to the team is that much. He's
played almost every game, I think every game since then.
So back in the lineup here tonight. What's interesting about
Kent is they had two ten minute frames in that
game where they scored six and seven points. First ten
minutes of the game only scored six. You can see
that you're in the opposing arena. You might have to
take an opening punch in such a hated rivalry. They did,
But then this are the second half the same way.
Seven points again, two things I don't think are gonna
happen here tonight. My initial look was gonna be toward
the over in this game until I saw where they
put the number. And I'm not saying that they shouldn't
have put it there. You're supposed to put it at
one sixty five to discourage some people who want to
run to the window with over money like I do.
It's up to one sixty six. I don't know you're
asking for eighty three. Aside, it's not out of the question,
but it's out of my league, so I can't play it.
I would think, you know, Akron is let's put it.
The difference between the talent level of these two teams
is probably more than the opener of four and a half.
It's been bent down to three and a half four now.
I think based on rivalry, home floor, revenge, et cetera,
et cetera, and Kent is no pushover. But I do
think Akron's the cream of the crop inside that league.
I can't get there with either side here. This is
more of those one of those in game type bets
for me, Adam. For like, if Kent gets out of
the shoot really really fast here, I would play Acron
immediately to get back into the game. So that's the
way I'll probably look. They they priced me out of
total and sidewise, even though I think Akron is more
than four points better on most given days. This one
second time around with revenge, with your third leading scorer
back if your Kent, I don't know, it keeps me away.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you said it as that I could. I really
can't say it better. I'll apply that to the side
as well. I couldn't believe this open Achron minus four.
I love, I mean my handicap loves Achron here, but
I am shocked that I'm being forced to lay two
possessions on the road in this rivalry. Like I just
I just the way that these the way that this
game has been priced in years past, I did not think.
I thought it was going to be more like a pick.
I felt like this was going to be closer to
pick and Akron would have been instantly on my card
if that was the case, because they didn't see that's
the thing. Akron didn't even play a great They didn't
even play a great game in the first one, and
they they won the game easily. And you just don't
see Akron play poorly very often, right, Like that's just
just you know, go go back through the years of
the last you know, sort of this run where Akron
has been really good. They just they don't play that.
There's not many nights where this team sort of no shows.
And you know that's the thing. That first meeting, I
don't even think they played close to their best game,
but Kent State could not buy a bucket. So you know,
you talk about the Troy game, and I think, again,
I've been willing to throw out the h The mac
Sunbelt rematch is a little bit tough because it's like
some of these teams like a right, like you kind
of have your site set on winning the league. You know,
they're fourteen and one in league play, they're one game
behind Miami of Ohio was on a generational run. But
most people, at least back then, thought that they had
a loss coming to them at some point. So like
I look at that, and I'm like, I almost am
willing to throw out the Troy loss because of course
all of the MAX schools went on the road in
the second leg of that of that of the the
of the Max Sunbelt thing. So at the time you
were basically you were basically asking Akron to go on
the road to Eastern Michigan, go down to Troy to
play a non conference game, and then they had to
come back and play like what was a pretty you know,
kind of like higher profile home game with UMass a
couple days later. So since the Troy loss, they dropped
ninety nine on U mass in a win, they dropped
ninety on Western Michigan won by seventeen blowouts of Ball
State and Buffalo, And of course the ball State game
we talked about on this show ball State backdoor at
a fourteen point spread at the like right at the end,
that was a twenty point game for most of the time.
So to me, like, I'll go back to your point,
Acron's just a better team by like a wide margin.
Here in my opinion, if you put these two teams
on a neutral I think I'd have Akron somewhere in
like the seven and I think i'd make Akron probably
seven and a half on a neutral six and a half,
seven and a half Akron kent state. Let's say that game.
Let's say this game occurs when Brian powers at the
Rocket Arena in a couple of weeks in the in
the Mac tournament. I think Akron's like a six and
a half point favorite, seven and a half point favorite.
So to me, Cat like much better. I just didn't
want to lay four. I still think they're the right side.
I even even win the four. Something tells me that
this is like a nine to eleven point Achron win.
They pull away, hit some free throws, probably finish the
job right around double digits. So do what you will
with that. All right, let's continue on here. We've got
another donation, much appreciated.
Speaker 2: Here.
Speaker 1: Mad Max is in the building, and I'm glad he
brought this one up because this is a game I
absolutely wanted to talk about. Very interesting game. Here, he says,
Dayton is coming off a big upset. Yeah, and Dayton
is starting to play really good ball. All of a sudden,
I think me, you rob the entire country, maybe left
Dayton for dead a few weeks back, and they have
bounced back in a big way. They're playing their best
ball of the season, and now they're hitting the road
to take on a George Washington team that just got
their best player back in Rafael Castro. Mad Max likes
GW here. I was very impressed with GW and the
crowd and how loud that building got a couple Fridays
ago when I was there for a Friday night game
against George Mason. I can only imagine the crowd will
be that and then some tonight for National TV two
against the Dayton team that's a perennial power in this league.
So are you riding with the home GW revs Tonight? Robert?
Do you think Dayton continues their run?
Speaker 2: I'll say this, I was very surprised by the day
and you know what, money wasn't surprised, Adam, because there
was a flood of money on Dayton against Saint Louis
on Tuesday night.
Speaker 3: I mean that game got.
Speaker 2: Three point move yeah, like three and a half point more,
and it turned out to be true. Somehow, some way,
Dayton found a way to reverse that massacre that you
were present for it. Chafitz in Saint Louis seventy seven
sixty two that that game was never even closed, so
maybe it was just a revenge thing. They have started
to put up points the last three games. It's not
the easiest thing to do on the road to put
up eighty two against George Mason in what's really a
slow footed game. So Dayton shot really really well there,
came back with seventy eight against Duquane, come back with
seventy seven against Saint Louis, and all of a sudden,
the offense is what's clicking. These teams did play the
one time already though, and it was a GW seven
point winning Castro was present in that game, not necessarily
a dominant force when we go back through the box,
only eight points in that game, but he was present there.
Speaker 3: It'll be interesting.
Speaker 2: I'm almost of the same opinion as mad Max that
there could be a potential let down here for Dayton
after beating Saint Louis.
Speaker 3: I have to believe that.
Speaker 2: Just in seeing that game for about twenty five minutes
of it, the amount of energy that UD had in
that game from the outset was incredible. It's like Saint
Louis was never really in that one complete reversal of
the first time round. So I don't know if you
can take that same energy now and bring it on
the road or not. Anthony Grant's team did have a
bad stretch, a six game stretch where they lost five
of the six. Seem to have righted this ship now,
but I think GW can write the ship here too.
A couple of things where this one is concerned. I
feel like I don't really want to lay three and
a half, to be honest with you, because I don't
want to take the stance that I think Dayton's win
streak is kind of bogus and maybe they're just in
a letdown spot here, because if it's not bogus, and
if that wasn't just a letdown, if they have turned
the corner, then GW might not win this game at home.
Dayton certainly comes with a little bit of revenge. We'll
see how Castro works himself back into the lineup. A
lot of reasons that would keep me off of GW.
Money has pointed that direction. Early three up to three
and a half totals come down one fifty four and
a half to one fifty two and a half. The
chat is picking an awful lot of I didn't even
say they're picking a lot of difficult games to handicap today,
but I would say that the entire board is kind
of full of games where I can go. You know,
if I put up a wall and had arguments from
the left and arguments from the right and they both
went back and forth. There's a lot of legit arguments,
two way legit arguments for these games, and this is
one of those. So I probably passed my way through
this one.
Speaker 1: No, I'm with you, Rob, That's that is you know
where I'm at with this one too, because you know Castro,
there's no there's no discounting his importance to the GW team.
He is their best room defender. He's the best player.
You know, last last game, like I feel like he
was kind of just out there at times, sort of
getting his feet wet still goes for sixteen and seven.
GW drops one oh four on Leasal. I mean, like,
there's no question George Washington is better team when he
is on the court, like there is, it's not in
my opinion like that, it's not close. Like I know,
Hunger played well in his absence, but he is just
not the force on both ends that Castro is. So
my whole thing is this, though the Castro is properly
priced into this number. In my opinion, three three and
a half. That's where it should be. And I guess
I'm with you, Rob, I'm not. I don't know that
I want to play against Dayton right now with just
sort of their tenacity on both ends of the floor.
And I my gut says Dayton's a little bit more
battle tested, a little bit more tough than GW. And
you know, going back to the earlier meeting, Dayton won
that game by seven a in a stretch where they
were not playing their best basketball. They had lost, they
had lost a home game to Liberty, they kind of
barely beat Ford and barely beat Loyola Chicago, which it
was almost they won the game by two and got
treated like it was a loss because that just beating
Loyola Chicago only by two was almost like an embarrassment.
And they still turned around and beat GW. But now
for Dayton, I mean, you've had wins at George Mason,
who is a team that's been in the top half
of this league this year. The win over Saint Louis
so yeah, there's are you going to play the letdown
spot on the road, which is very possible, and that
that building is like I couldn't believe how loud it
got in there. And I bet tonight's crowd is better
than the crowd that I that was there for the
GW George Mason game. And again George Washington just got
their best player back, so you have to bump them
up in your in your ratings. It is a yeah,
I again, we're we're here, listen, We're here to give
out picks and we're going to do our share of that,
and Rob and I are each going to give one
out in a minute. But we're also here to break
down the games that you guys ask about, and sometimes
it's you know, that's another one that's that's quite difficult
to really land on something for me that I would
be confident on. So let's go ahead. Oh this is
so Mansy shout out to you. I couldn't remember who
gave us the cal Poly game yesterday, but Mansey hit
that with cal Poly and he wanted to talk about
the game to day in game, which we just did,
so we just hit his game, and yeah, I was
gonna say a lot of people wanted that one in
the chat, and it's tough one. It's gonna be a
great watch national TV. Okay, this one's very interesting to me.
Let's go back to the sun Belt, the fun Belt
as some people call it, Rob Vino, and it's gonna
be a fun Friday night because these games are crazy.
So Garth says, Louisiana Monroe plus nineteen and a half
against Troy. Now Troy, it has the easiest road because
if they win, and they're a massive favorite to do so,
I believe they pretty much locked them itselves into the
two seed. But they did almost get clipped by Louisiana
Monroe a couple of weeks ago, ten days ago in
a game they won by one. And so Rob, I
have Louisiana Monroe has shown value on my numbers every
single game, pretty much every game. I've been higher than
the market on four and twenty six Anna Monroe since
the beginning of the season. But the interesting thing about
that is they cover a lot like they're always a
huge favorite or huge underdog. My number pretty much always
shows value and a lot of times they lose but
cover big numbers. And that was the case in the
first meeting where they covered easily against Troy, and my
number love Louisiana Monroe in that game. So my number, Garth,
I'm with you. My number loves Louisiana Monroe. Here. But
do you think Rob, this is the spot a spot
where Troy could run it up or would want to
run it up. And if you don't have anything on
the side, can you talk about talk to us about
the total yet?
Speaker 2: This one's a little bit difficult, but I think it
probably the number probably leans or lends itself, I'll put
it that way, lends itself to a play on ul
Monroe for one exterior reason, and that would be if
Troy's out in front three minutes to go by twenty
twenty one points, they're gonna pull their guys and preserve
them for the conference tournament. There's no sense in a
game like that to leave them out on the floor,
which immediately lends itself to a back door Ul Monroe cover.
So you have that on your side if you're taking
the points. The seventy seven to seventy six game was
a complete surprise Monroe. If there's one thing they can do,
it's at times score score enough to cover nineteen and
a half or to get under that number for sure.
But they don't play any defense whatsoever. And Troy is
so good defensively, and maybe Monroe got their attention with
that seventy seven to seventy six game, and now Troy
is here. I thought Troy was playing for the number
one seed. Maybe they are playing for days.
Speaker 1: They might no, they might be you might be right.
I think they I think there's a scenarios where they
could win the one I think there is.
Speaker 2: And so regardless though they're one of those teams that
will get the four days off, right, you just got
to win this game. You're at home, You're against a
team that maybe has got your tension the last time
you played. Because these, you know, all of these Sun
Belt rematches that will occur tonight, they've all been in
with like the last fourteen days. These are not games
that were played back on January one, back in you know,
middle of January, second week whatever. They've all been played recently,
so it's got to be a little bit fresh in
Troy's mind. I have no doubt they're going to win
this game, and probably Garth either. But of course the
number is a great equalizer. Here in the nineteen and
a half does loom large. I would be very fearful
of playing Troy in this instance, just because of the
back door. However, they're way better than you, well, Monroe
on both ends, and if that seventy seven to seventy
six awoke them a little bit or woke them up
a little bit, then I could see them, you know,
I could see I don't know. I'm trying to think
of a score at the top of my head. Eighty
eighty three sixty two, I guess is where you'd have
to be, and maybe Monroe.
Speaker 3: Can get more than sixty two.
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna leave my thoughts, you know, on Garth's
side here, just because I don't trust the very end
of the game. But I do think Troy can get
away with a double digit win here. You know, total
one p fifty three the first time around, this time
we're looking let's get the current. This time we're looking
at the same exact number, one fifty three, and it's
been bent down from one fifty six. And I think
that's solely because money, and I would include myself on
this bandwagon. I would expect Troy to play way better
defense tonight. With a number one seed at stake, and
maybe Monroe doesn't come near that seventy six number again.
So I can understand the move towards the under here.
Speaker 1: This is gonna be my parlay leg I cannot I
cannot ignore a a this big of a variance my
number to the market number. And I see that. Noah
says U. L. Monroe is horrendous, but I'm gonna gonna
quantify that real quick. This is they're getting nineteen and
a half points. I'm at fifteen point eight. Okay. They
they got destroyed by South Alabama because South Alabama just
plays a nasty zone and that's gonna be tough for
a team that, like U. EL Monroe, it doesn't really
have shooters. But Troy does not set up like that.
Troy is gonna play man. It's gonna be you know,
up and down and Rob. You made such a tremendous
point about there's there's no style points here. This is
gonna be like if they've got a fifteen point leader
or a twenty point lead, they're not going to risk
a single person getting hurt before that conference tournament. It's
gonna be unload the bench the second they get up twenty.
It's unload the bench, get the get the student manager
in on senior night or whatever. Right, like, let's just
get anyone and everyone. All the walk Ons are gonna
come in, you know. And ul Monroe they've played hard
right to the end of these games. They covered fifteen
and a half against Arkansas State, they covered seventeen and
a half against Troy. These are all recent covered fourteen
and a half against Texas State, they cover the ball
State game was a little bit more competitive. They beat
Old Dominion. They got to win in that game fourteen
and a half point underdog. Those are all within the
last month. So Louisiana Moreau has been extremely profitable as
this size of an underdog in these games. And now
you're talking about a massive, massive premium to back Troy
because there's this thought that like, well, they've got to
win for the one seed, it's a must win. Yeah,
no one said they had to win by twenty though,
and embarrass Monroe and put their starters out there and
leave them out there to risk injury. So I think
you're gonna have a if you don't get it just
from the game being competitive, which we just saw these
teams played to a one point game. You might get
it from just straight up. Hey, let's get the reserves in,
let's get the walk ons in, and then all of
a sudden Monroe comes clips it. It's an eighteen point
Finally cash easily. This one happened. I'm gonna think about
this at nineteen and a half, this is this might
make my client card, but yeah, this will be my
leg of the parlay. Monroe plus nineteen and a half.
I love that angle. Someone said, Adam, stop it. I'm sorry.
Nineteen and a half is an insane number for that game,
and that is my leg of the parlay. What about you, Robino,
what's your leg of the parlay?
Speaker 2: Yeah, well two choices here, Adam. One of them would
involve your cno sense against Fairfield tonight. But I'll go
the other route just because it's been really, really kind
to me so far this season, and I'm going to
play the Sacred Heart Mount Saint Mary's game over one
and a half here in a league where tempo doesn't exist.
I mean, this is the one of the slowest leagues
in the country, and for Mount Saint Mary's around a
pretty good role right now. I just want to put
some context into this play here. We've talked enough about
Sacred Heart this year. We know their style, we know
they shoot it well from three, we know they lack defense.
They're gonna play with pace, et cetera, et cetera. But
Mount Saint Mary's a team that probably is happy to
find a team that's going to play pace with them.
It'll be the second time they played this year. But
right now, currently Mount Saint Mary's on a four game
win streak, playing really good basketball. But what got me
the most when I was doing this handicap early this
morning was the fact that how do you get if
you're Mount Saint Marys. This is driving me towards extreme
tempo in this game here tonight. How do you get
Merrimack play a seventy one possession game with you? That
doesn't happen with that Merrimack's not going to play seven.
But yet they did, and they scored seventy points, gave
up eighty seven, but they got Merrimack to go up
and down. How do you get Niagara and Jerry mcnameric
to play a seventy possession game. It doesn't have Niagara
sixty three, sixty two, fifty nine, just don't play that fast.
So I've got a team here that wants to go.
Sacred Heart's going to go. They want to go. We
should get more than enough or an ample amount of
scoring opportunities here, which is always what you're looking for
when you're playing over and then I just think the
price range is good here, one forty nine and a
half for a game that I feel can get to
one fifty four or better. And in fact, first time
around they got to one sixty seven against one another
and Kwan Hill was present in that game. All guys
were on deck for the Sacred Heart side. So to me,
I've got Mount Saint Mary's playing really good offensive basketball
right now, playing fast tempo against teams that don't want
to move whatsoever. Going to get a team that does
want to move tonight. Both teams can fill it up.
I thought one and a half this play is fifty
sixty percent against the number, and they've moved it up
a little. One forty eight. Opener was even better priced,
but here we're still under one fifty. I like it.
And on top of that, Sacred Heart is off of
a very poor offensive game the prior game here, So
I'm always a guy who's looking at bounce back If
you do something really well and you didn't do it
well the prior game. I looked for that bounce back.
I think you get it out of Sacred Heart here.
That's going to be my leg of the parlay here,
Adam a little Northeast Conference basketball tonight. I'll go back
to what you know. I've kind of got twin Alma
maters u NH. Sacred Heart. Gonna go to Sacred Heart tonight.
They've been good to me that team that game total
mount Saint Mary's Sacred Heart over one forty nine and
a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is you know, Sacred Heart for me. Rob
kind of a disappointing season. I thought that this team
talent wise would have been sort of in the mix
for that like top four, top five in the MAC.
They're going to finish probably closer to tenth, ninth or
tenth regardless of depending on what happens in this next
these next couple of games. But the reason that they've
been so disappointing to me is is not that it
hasn't been the offensive end that that is that is
like cause them to disappoint. They still make a lot
of threes. They still play esthetically pleasing offense. Most of
the time they do. I mean, they will force up.
There's no shot that Sacred Heart does not like to take.
But the nice part about if you like an over
is they get them up quick. They will get them
up quick, and it's like they they're they're they're typically
not running a ton of shot clock. What I've noticed
that that makes sense for your handicap with Mount Saint
Mary's is this is not nearly the Mount Saint Mary's team,
in my opinion that made the run of the NCAA
tournament last year, and they don't have as much of
an identity. So I've I've found that Mount Saint Mary's
is a little bit more inclined to play the game
that their opponent wants to play. And I think if
they play the game like if you look at like
you know, Canisius Niagara, they've played like Rider all teams
like the last three games for Mount Saint Mary's, they've
played bad offensive teams that play slower games, and of
course the scores were lower scoring. But when they've played
some of the faster paced teams in this league. We'll
just use the first meeting between these two teams way
back on December third, eighty seven to eighty right, Like,
I feel like you know, Sianna was a team that
I remember Jerry wanting to slow down Mount Saint Mary's
in that game, and Sianna beat them sixty seven to fifty.
So I found that Mount Saint Mary's can be you
can coax them into playing your game, and if they
play Sacred Hearts game here, there's probably one hundred and
seventy points in the game like that, because that is
the type of game that Sacred Heart will will push for.
So yeah, what is what did you say your number was?
Certainly wasn't one seventy one forty nine and a half? Yeah,
that makes a lot of sense, Rob, If Sacred Heart
dictates this game, you're gonna get you. You will easily
get to one fifty, even if even if neither team
is having a great shooting night, just by the sheer
volume of shots that are likely to be attempted.
Speaker 2: And real quick as you were talking, I realized you
pointed out another mistake. As I was rattling off a
thousand thoughts out of my head. How come I get
Greg Paulus and Jerry McNamara mixed up, but they're like
the same person. Rob.
Speaker 1: You know, they're both they're both Syracuse legends. They are
both legends in the three one five area code. Greg
Paul is former mister Basketball CBA Sarah Couse and of
course you know Greg Paul is an incredible high school
career in the Syracuse area area. And then Jerry McNamara
maybe the greatest career of anyone to ever step foot
in the three one five area code. So you know,
it's an honest mistake.
Speaker 2: No my apology because they just they're the same person
to me, the point guards, it's crazy, but yes, one
forty nine and a half. But I think Sacred Heart
in Mount Saint Mary's get that thing up and over.
So let's knock down this parlay tonight.
Speaker 1: Two teamer tonight for us over in Sacred Heart, Mount
Saint Mary's over one forty nine and a half. I'm
gonna go with Louisiana Monroe plus nineteen and a half.
That's your two teamer for today. We will be back
on last call tomorrow with a three teamer. We'll throw
Kelly and Vegas into the mix. So let's try to
get this one and set ourselves up, you know for
a nice three team or tomorrow I've got a five
percent play Tonight, Rob and I have the joint package
up three day all access, a much more cost effective
way to get that five percenter. Hope everyone has a
great weekend. Cash all your tickets, said Rob, and I
will see you as part of Last Call in the
morning right here on wager Talk TV.