WEBVTT

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<v Speaker 1>Here's a Channel nine first one in weatherboar caask. It'll

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<v Speaker 1>be mostly sunny day to day. There's a chance of storms,

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<v Speaker 1>very isolated. Ninety degrees will be our high today overnight

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<v Speaker 1>a muggy night low of seventy two, part with body skies.

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<v Speaker 2>Mostly cloudy Tomorrow.

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<v Speaker 1>With the best chance of rain all week eighty eight

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<v Speaker 1>to high overnight low of seventy again muggy, and on Thursday,

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<v Speaker 1>a part with thotty with a high of eighty six

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<v Speaker 1>seventy one. Right now, time for traffic chuck ingram from the.

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<v Speaker 3>Traffic backing up pasts the Parkway southbound seventy one of

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<v Speaker 3>There is an accident on eastbound two seventy five near

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<v Speaker 3>Mosteller chucking Ram N fifty five Krooz the Talk Station.

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<v Speaker 2>A twenty eight fifty five KRCD talk station.

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<v Speaker 1>Happy Tuesday. I always look forward to this hour of

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<v Speaker 1>the week because it's time to get the Daniel Davis

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<v Speaker 1>Deep Die with former retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis doing

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<v Speaker 1>war analysis and perfect timing on this Welcome back, Daniel Davis.

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<v Speaker 1>It's all as a pleasure having you on the fifty

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<v Speaker 1>five Case Morning Show. Always a pleasure to be here.

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<v Speaker 1>Brian Well continuing a theme that we've been talking about

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<v Speaker 1>with Russia and Ukraine. Every week we talk, we talk

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<v Speaker 1>about how the Russia has a much stronger position going

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<v Speaker 1>into any discussions about a ceasefire or resolution of the

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<v Speaker 1>war whatever to stop the bloodshed. They have said repeatedly

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<v Speaker 1>over the course of the last week as we fast

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<v Speaker 1>approached this meeting to try to resolve the conflict with

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump in several days, that we're not giving up

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<v Speaker 1>the land that we've got. We demand some concessions on land.

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<v Speaker 1>We demand that Ukraine be precluded from entering NATO. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>it's the same line in the sand that Putin's been

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<v Speaker 1>drawing from the day one, only to get in response

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<v Speaker 1>from Zelensky and apparently the European UN. No, we're not

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<v Speaker 1>going to concede Land, and we're not going to give

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<v Speaker 1>up the possibility of Ukraine entering NATO. So we're at

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<v Speaker 1>this stalemate. Well, things have just gotten better for the

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<v Speaker 1>Russians as we move forward to this meeting this weekend.

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<v Speaker 1>Let my listeners know what's going on in the Eastern region.

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<v Speaker 1>Daniel Davis.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, there has been a continued stalemate in the political realm,

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<v Speaker 4>but in the military realm it is far from that,

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<v Speaker 4>and in fact, there has been some pretty major developments

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<v Speaker 4>in about the last forty eight hours where there has

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<v Speaker 4>been a major penetration of the Ukraine lines by the

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<v Speaker 4>Russian forces north of a city called Pokrovsk.

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<v Speaker 2>They've been going after this for quite some time.

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<v Speaker 4>We've been mentioned in I think several of our conversations

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<v Speaker 4>we've had in recent months that this is something Russia

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<v Speaker 4>has been moving closer and closer towards. But now then

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<v Speaker 4>it appears that they have a major breakthrough where they

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<v Speaker 4>have moved in twenty four I'm sorry, in the thirty

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<v Speaker 4>six hours about twenty kilometers deep and now about seven

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<v Speaker 4>kilometers wide. They're expanding their bridgehead and the reason is

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<v Speaker 4>because Ukraine simply doesn't have enough men.

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<v Speaker 2>That's been a theme you and I've talked about for

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<v Speaker 2>a long time. Now it's actually manifesting in.

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<v Speaker 4>A really powerful way because Russia many of the trench

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<v Speaker 4>lines that they went up to, and they've got video

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<v Speaker 4>showing this, there simply weren't any Ukrainians manning them. Defensive

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<v Speaker 4>lines were good, they were certainly capable of doing the job,

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<v Speaker 4>but there weren't enough troops demand them. So now Russia

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<v Speaker 4>has penetrated through those lines, gotten behind some of them,

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<v Speaker 4>and now then they're extending deep and wide into to

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<v Speaker 4>the last major line.

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<v Speaker 2>Of ukraine defense.

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<v Speaker 4>This is similar to what Ukraine was trying to do

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<v Speaker 4>in twenty twenty three when they wanted to penetrate the

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<v Speaker 4>Russian lines of defense, make a breach and then put

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<v Speaker 4>troops in to get all the way down to the

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<v Speaker 4>Azov coast. They never made it past the first one

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<v Speaker 4>because Russian's defensives and their manpower were sufficient to repel that.

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<v Speaker 4>Now then the situation in reverse. Ukraine doesn't have the

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<v Speaker 4>number of troops and if Russia continues to exploit this

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<v Speaker 4>right here, there are no defensive belts in the remainder

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<v Speaker 4>of the interior of the country, and if Russia has

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<v Speaker 4>the forces and crucially the logistics to be able to

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<v Speaker 4>back this up, they could continue to roll as far

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<v Speaker 4>as they can drive, because Ukraine simply doesn't have the

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<v Speaker 4>manpower to stop them. Now, Ukraine does recognize, you know

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<v Speaker 4>how critical this is, and according to all the sources

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<v Speaker 4>I can ascertain this morning, they're literally throwing in the

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<v Speaker 4>kitchen sink. They're using all their strategic reserves, the Azole Brigade,

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<v Speaker 4>they're pulling folks from other portions of the front to

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<v Speaker 4>try and stop it. But here's the problem, Brian they

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<v Speaker 4>don't have fortifications in this area, so they're going to

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<v Speaker 4>be fighting in the open, which means that's going to

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<v Speaker 4>give the advantage to Russia. Russia accomplished this by a

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<v Speaker 4>combination of drones, of course, troops on the ground mainly infantry,

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<v Speaker 4>not armored so far, but the glide bombs have been

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<v Speaker 4>a huge issue. The artillery. They have just been saturating

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<v Speaker 4>these areas, making the thin lines even more brittle. And

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<v Speaker 4>now then we've seen a major break and it's unclear

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<v Speaker 4>if Ukraine can stop and you know, coming literally days

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<v Speaker 4>before this, Trump putin meeting here. I mean, if anybody

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<v Speaker 4>was ever looking for political leverage, you know, at the

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<v Speaker 4>highest levels, this is certainly providing it. And it just

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<v Speaker 4>almost shreds any kind of hope that Trump can go

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<v Speaker 4>in there and deal with the Europeans are going to

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<v Speaker 4>ask him to do. Tomorrow, there's a big meeting between

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<v Speaker 4>the heads of state and Trump on a phone call

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<v Speaker 4>to try to convince him not to quote give away

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<v Speaker 4>the store, but there may be nothing to quote give

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<v Speaker 4>away because the Russians are simply taking it. This is

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<v Speaker 4>the most the deepest penetration Russia has had in two

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<v Speaker 4>years of fighting, and could come at a time when

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<v Speaker 4>it signals this war could be coming to an end.

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<v Speaker 4>It's not gonna happen overnight, but this could prove to

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<v Speaker 4>be the pivot point that sees this war come to

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<v Speaker 4>an end, either negotiations or through a Ukraine loss.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, in terms of conceding land, obviously, Russian now is

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<v Speaker 1>controlling a bigger chunk of land. Is this Pakrovsk region?

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<v Speaker 1>Is this one of those areas that's predominant Russian leaning,

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<v Speaker 1>like we had with Crimea, where they could make a

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<v Speaker 1>legitimate claim because hey, these are Russian people. They would

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<v Speaker 1>rather be affiliated and under the leadership of Russia as

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<v Speaker 1>opposed to Ukraine. We're taking that area. Other areas of

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine are more independent. Folks don't perceive themselves as to

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<v Speaker 1>be Russian. So how about this particular region and this

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<v Speaker 1>new area that they've taken over.

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<v Speaker 4>It's a mix, but it's there is still a significant

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<v Speaker 4>portion that's ethnic Russian. And there is all the way

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<v Speaker 4>to the Daneppe River and what the Russians concerned called

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<v Speaker 4>Novo Russia, which is I think eight oblost the first eight.

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<v Speaker 4>Instead of the four that have currently been annexed, there's

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<v Speaker 4>eight about eight up to the river. That importantly includes

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<v Speaker 4>some of the area where Odessa is in the south,

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<v Speaker 4>which is beyond the Danepper River. So there's a lot

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<v Speaker 4>of area there that includes a lot of ethnic Russians,

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<v Speaker 4>and certainly they would welcome this, but there's lots of

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<v Speaker 4>others who are not ethnic Russians who are fearing it.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, what do you expect to happen this weekkend Daniel Davis,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, a moment of clarity for everybody in the

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<v Speaker 1>European Union. I mean, interestingly enough, Jad Vansh just said

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<v Speaker 1>the other dav was yesterday, we're done funding the Ukraine

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<v Speaker 1>war business. We want to bring about a peaceful settlement

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<v Speaker 1>to this thing. He said, We're not gonna pay for

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<v Speaker 1>these arms anymore. European Union wants to do it. Fine,

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<v Speaker 1>but you painted a scenario that even if the European

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<v Speaker 1>Union showed up today with a whole bunch of arms,

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<v Speaker 1>there aren't enough men to use the arms to fight

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<v Speaker 1>back the Russians. So are we gonna have a moment

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<v Speaker 1>of clarity this weekend when they're all gonna wake up

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<v Speaker 1>and say, you know what, Vladimir Putin's hand is a

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<v Speaker 1>lot stronger than ours. We don't have anything to bargain with.

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<v Speaker 1>We're gonna have to start cutting up Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, Brian, if there was going to be a

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<v Speaker 4>moment of clarity, that it would have already come. These information,

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<v Speaker 4>this fundamentals have been there almost from the beginning, and

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<v Speaker 4>I've been, you know, beating my head against the wall.

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<v Speaker 4>So if there was a moment of clarity, they would

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<v Speaker 4>have already gotten it. So I doubt I honestly, I've

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<v Speaker 4>out even now they'll have it. And in fact, some

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<v Speaker 4>of the statements I've seen in just the last twenty

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<v Speaker 4>four hours. This shows that a lot of the European

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<v Speaker 4>leaders are still oblivious.

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<v Speaker 2>To this and just no, no, no, no, we just

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<v Speaker 2>need more stuff.

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<v Speaker 4>We just need the US to give us more interceptor

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<v Speaker 4>missiles or artillery pieces.

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<v Speaker 2>Whatever fill in the blank. They just want.

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<v Speaker 4>They just aren't willing to So I don't think even

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<v Speaker 4>this will provide clarity. I think the only thing that

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<v Speaker 4>could provide clarity is if you see Russian mechanized formations

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<v Speaker 4>exploiting this penetration, and instead of just infantrymen who are

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<v Speaker 4>limited by how fast you can you move to walk

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<v Speaker 4>to portions of the front, they could then, once they

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<v Speaker 4>have it broad enough, they can drive in and now

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<v Speaker 4>then you could see not tens of kilometers falling per day,

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<v Speaker 4>but hundreds of kilometers falling per day. Then you might

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<v Speaker 4>get a moment of clarity where they realize, oh, snap,

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<v Speaker 4>we either end this now or we could lose everything

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<v Speaker 4>to the Dneppa River and possibly beyond, which is very

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<v Speaker 4>much a real conces.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, and let's assume that's gonna happen, because that's what

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<v Speaker 1>seems to be going on every week we talk about it.

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<v Speaker 1>Russia improves its hand. They seem to be in a

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<v Speaker 1>collective state of denial obviously. So if Russia does go

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<v Speaker 1>out away to the river and they get all the

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<v Speaker 1>land that they're hoping to get, and they accomplish that,

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<v Speaker 1>they bring the tanks in, they roll forward quicker, I

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<v Speaker 1>suppose will Russia be able to hold it? You and

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<v Speaker 1>I have talked about the concept of an ongoing, long term,

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<v Speaker 1>protracted like guerrilla warfare. The Ukrainians will take to the

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<v Speaker 1>hills whoever's left and constantly pester and shoot and attack

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<v Speaker 1>the Russians in a piecemeal fashion, never giving them any

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<v Speaker 1>peace whatsoever. Can the Russians maintain control over that region

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<v Speaker 1>once they have control of it?

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<v Speaker 4>They seem to think they can. And that's still I mean,

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<v Speaker 4>the answer is really unanswerable right now. We can only project.

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<v Speaker 4>But the Russians apparently are aware of that, have considered that,

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<v Speaker 4>and are prepared for that, and they apparently will want

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<v Speaker 4>to hold onto areas where it is mostly ethnic Russian.

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<v Speaker 4>And look, I'm not going to defend this, but I'm

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<v Speaker 4>just and say that I would guess, and no one's

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<v Speaker 4>told me this, but known history, I would suggest that

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<v Speaker 4>if they take this area to the Dipper, they'll probably

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<v Speaker 4>expel any population that is not pro Russian, that doesn't

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<v Speaker 4>want them, you'll see a version of ethnic cleansing, just

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<v Speaker 4>like we did in World War Two in several places

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<v Speaker 4>in the ugly aftermath of that fat You know, it

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<v Speaker 4>happened when the Germans were moving forward, they ethnically cleansed areas,

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<v Speaker 4>and when the Soviets came through, especially in Eastern Europe,

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<v Speaker 4>they did the same things. And so I unfortunately would

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<v Speaker 4>expect something like that to happen because Russia doesn't want

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<v Speaker 4>to get into a situation like you described, so that

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<v Speaker 4>they will try to clear it out. And they still

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<v Speaker 4>expect tho that there would be some for they said.

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<v Speaker 4>One source I've talked to you said, there's a five

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<v Speaker 4>year plan post the end of this conflict where they

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<v Speaker 4>expect to have to find that and then over time

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<v Speaker 4>it'll peter out, which matches what we also saw in

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<v Speaker 4>the post World War II area where the Soviets had

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<v Speaker 4>a lot of that, especially in Hungary and Yugoslavia and

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<v Speaker 4>some other areas. We saw that and it took four

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<v Speaker 4>or five years to peter out before it finally did.

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<v Speaker 2>And looks like the Russians are prepared for that. Well.

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<v Speaker 1>We can have a long term discussion on it. But

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<v Speaker 1>that sounds to me if I can draw a parallel

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<v Speaker 1>and link its sover Because we haven't talked about Israel Gaza,

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<v Speaker 1>it looks like Israel's going in and just going to

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<v Speaker 1>completely try to like not say ethnically cleans, but basically

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<v Speaker 1>try to throw everybody out of Gaza as a strategy.

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<v Speaker 2>Now, well, I.

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<v Speaker 4>Mean it is, and you can use whatever term you

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<v Speaker 4>want to, but the net on the ground is it

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<v Speaker 4>appears the same that they're trying to physically force everybody

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<v Speaker 4>all the two point whatever is millionaire still left and

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<v Speaker 4>move them into the southern part of the script, which

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<v Speaker 4>is just like putting sardines in a can. And I

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<v Speaker 4>don't know if you've seen any these pictures recently, but

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<v Speaker 4>it's nothing but fields of tents and just lean tos

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<v Speaker 4>and just i mean not even official tents, just tarps

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<v Speaker 4>and whatever else that can get all in the rubble

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<v Speaker 4>because there's nowhere to live, and that's not sustainable that

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<v Speaker 4>you can't do that.

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<v Speaker 2>It's not even at this point of matters.

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<v Speaker 4>So much of making sure you get enough food aid

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<v Speaker 4>you although that's obviously required to keep people from starving

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<v Speaker 4>to death, but you can't sustain that can live that way.

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<v Speaker 4>So either Israel's gonna have to relent and allow people

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<v Speaker 4>back into other areas and spread them out and then rebuild,

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<v Speaker 4>or somebody else is gonna have to take them to

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<v Speaker 4>go out. Otherwise you'll probably literally start getting large scale

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<v Speaker 4>die offs. And I just it's a horrible, horrible humanitarian situation.

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<v Speaker 4>I don't see a good military outcome or a political

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<v Speaker 4>outcome for Israel. I think they kind of box themselves

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<v Speaker 4>into a position, even if people are very much pro Israel,

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, militarily speaking, this is not sustainable and it's

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<v Speaker 4>not going to bring peace to Israel. And I don't

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<v Speaker 4>know what in it Yaho government's gonna do.

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<v Speaker 1>Wow, boy, I wish we had better news. But you

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<v Speaker 1>got to tell call him like you see him. Daniel

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<v Speaker 1>Davis appreciate the time you spend my listeners to me

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<v Speaker 1>every week. We'll do it again next Tuesday. Every Tuesday

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<v Speaker 1>Daniel Davis Deep Dive and search for his podcast online.

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<v Speaker 1>He's talking. He has some interesting and wonderful guests on

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<v Speaker 1>his show. Daniel Davis Deep Dive. Great talking with my

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<v Speaker 1>brother always a pleasure, Always my pleasure. Br Ryan see

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<v Speaker 1>you next week, next Tuesday, eight forty Right now, five

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<v Speaker 1>KRC the talk station. This is fifty five KRC and

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<v Speaker 1>iHeartRadio station Wood and let
