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Speaker 1: Happy Tuesday. I always look forward to this hour of
Speaker 1: the week because it's time to get the Daniel Davis
Speaker 1: Deep Die with former retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis doing
Speaker 1: war analysis and perfect timing on this Welcome back, Daniel Davis.
Speaker 1: It's all as a pleasure having you on the fifty
Speaker 1: five Case Morning Show. Always a pleasure to be here.
Speaker 1: Brian Well continuing a theme that we've been talking about
Speaker 1: with Russia and Ukraine. Every week we talk, we talk
Speaker 1: about how the Russia has a much stronger position going
Speaker 1: into any discussions about a ceasefire or resolution of the
Speaker 1: war whatever to stop the bloodshed. They have said repeatedly
Speaker 1: over the course of the last week as we fast
Speaker 1: approached this meeting to try to resolve the conflict with
Speaker 1: Donald Trump in several days, that we're not giving up
Speaker 1: the land that we've got. We demand some concessions on land.
Speaker 1: We demand that Ukraine be precluded from entering NATO. I mean,
Speaker 1: it's the same line in the sand that Putin's been
Speaker 1: drawing from the day one, only to get in response
Speaker 1: from Zelensky and apparently the European UN. No, we're not
Speaker 1: going to concede Land, and we're not going to give
Speaker 1: up the possibility of Ukraine entering NATO. So we're at
Speaker 1: this stalemate. Well, things have just gotten better for the
Speaker 1: Russians as we move forward to this meeting this weekend.
Speaker 1: Let my listeners know what's going on in the Eastern region.
Speaker 1: Daniel Davis.
Speaker 4: Yeah, there has been a continued stalemate in the political realm,
Speaker 4: but in the military realm it is far from that,
Speaker 4: and in fact, there has been some pretty major developments
Speaker 4: in about the last forty eight hours where there has
Speaker 4: been a major penetration of the Ukraine lines by the
Speaker 4: Russian forces north of a city called Pokrovsk.
Speaker 2: They've been going after this for quite some time.
Speaker 4: We've been mentioned in I think several of our conversations
Speaker 4: we've had in recent months that this is something Russia
Speaker 4: has been moving closer and closer towards. But now then
Speaker 4: it appears that they have a major breakthrough where they
Speaker 4: have moved in twenty four I'm sorry, in the thirty
Speaker 4: six hours about twenty kilometers deep and now about seven
Speaker 4: kilometers wide. They're expanding their bridgehead and the reason is
Speaker 4: because Ukraine simply doesn't have enough men.
Speaker 2: That's been a theme you and I've talked about for
Speaker 2: a long time. Now it's actually manifesting in.
Speaker 4: A really powerful way because Russia many of the trench
Speaker 4: lines that they went up to, and they've got video
Speaker 4: showing this, there simply weren't any Ukrainians manning them. Defensive
Speaker 4: lines were good, they were certainly capable of doing the job,
Speaker 4: but there weren't enough troops demand them. So now Russia
Speaker 4: has penetrated through those lines, gotten behind some of them,
Speaker 4: and now then they're extending deep and wide into to
Speaker 4: the last major line.
Speaker 2: Of ukraine defense.
Speaker 4: This is similar to what Ukraine was trying to do
Speaker 4: in twenty twenty three when they wanted to penetrate the
Speaker 4: Russian lines of defense, make a breach and then put
Speaker 4: troops in to get all the way down to the
Speaker 4: Azov coast. They never made it past the first one
Speaker 4: because Russian's defensives and their manpower were sufficient to repel that.
Speaker 4: Now then the situation in reverse. Ukraine doesn't have the
Speaker 4: number of troops and if Russia continues to exploit this
Speaker 4: right here, there are no defensive belts in the remainder
Speaker 4: of the interior of the country, and if Russia has
Speaker 4: the forces and crucially the logistics to be able to
Speaker 4: back this up, they could continue to roll as far
Speaker 4: as they can drive, because Ukraine simply doesn't have the
Speaker 4: manpower to stop them. Now, Ukraine does recognize, you know
Speaker 4: how critical this is, and according to all the sources
Speaker 4: I can ascertain this morning, they're literally throwing in the
Speaker 4: kitchen sink. They're using all their strategic reserves, the Azole Brigade,
Speaker 4: they're pulling folks from other portions of the front to
Speaker 4: try and stop it. But here's the problem, Brian they
Speaker 4: don't have fortifications in this area, so they're going to
Speaker 4: be fighting in the open, which means that's going to
Speaker 4: give the advantage to Russia. Russia accomplished this by a
Speaker 4: combination of drones, of course, troops on the ground mainly infantry,
Speaker 4: not armored so far, but the glide bombs have been
Speaker 4: a huge issue. The artillery. They have just been saturating
Speaker 4: these areas, making the thin lines even more brittle. And
Speaker 4: now then we've seen a major break and it's unclear
Speaker 4: if Ukraine can stop and you know, coming literally days
Speaker 4: before this, Trump putin meeting here. I mean, if anybody
Speaker 4: was ever looking for political leverage, you know, at the
Speaker 4: highest levels, this is certainly providing it. And it just
Speaker 4: almost shreds any kind of hope that Trump can go
Speaker 4: in there and deal with the Europeans are going to
Speaker 4: ask him to do. Tomorrow, there's a big meeting between
Speaker 4: the heads of state and Trump on a phone call
Speaker 4: to try to convince him not to quote give away
Speaker 4: the store, but there may be nothing to quote give
Speaker 4: away because the Russians are simply taking it. This is
Speaker 4: the most the deepest penetration Russia has had in two
Speaker 4: years of fighting, and could come at a time when
Speaker 4: it signals this war could be coming to an end.
Speaker 4: It's not gonna happen overnight, but this could prove to
Speaker 4: be the pivot point that sees this war come to
Speaker 4: an end, either negotiations or through a Ukraine loss.
Speaker 1: Well, in terms of conceding land, obviously, Russian now is
Speaker 1: controlling a bigger chunk of land. Is this Pakrovsk region?
Speaker 1: Is this one of those areas that's predominant Russian leaning,
Speaker 1: like we had with Crimea, where they could make a
Speaker 1: legitimate claim because hey, these are Russian people. They would
Speaker 1: rather be affiliated and under the leadership of Russia as
Speaker 1: opposed to Ukraine. We're taking that area. Other areas of
Speaker 1: Ukraine are more independent. Folks don't perceive themselves as to
Speaker 1: be Russian. So how about this particular region and this
Speaker 1: new area that they've taken over.
Speaker 4: It's a mix, but it's there is still a significant
Speaker 4: portion that's ethnic Russian. And there is all the way
Speaker 4: to the Daneppe River and what the Russians concerned called
Speaker 4: Novo Russia, which is I think eight oblost the first eight.
Speaker 4: Instead of the four that have currently been annexed, there's
Speaker 4: eight about eight up to the river. That importantly includes
Speaker 4: some of the area where Odessa is in the south,
Speaker 4: which is beyond the Danepper River. So there's a lot
Speaker 4: of area there that includes a lot of ethnic Russians,
Speaker 4: and certainly they would welcome this, but there's lots of
Speaker 4: others who are not ethnic Russians who are fearing it.
Speaker 1: Well, what do you expect to happen this weekkend Daniel Davis,
Speaker 1: I mean, a moment of clarity for everybody in the
Speaker 1: European Union. I mean, interestingly enough, Jad Vansh just said
Speaker 1: the other dav was yesterday, we're done funding the Ukraine
Speaker 1: war business. We want to bring about a peaceful settlement
Speaker 1: to this thing. He said, We're not gonna pay for
Speaker 1: these arms anymore. European Union wants to do it. Fine,
Speaker 1: but you painted a scenario that even if the European
Speaker 1: Union showed up today with a whole bunch of arms,
Speaker 1: there aren't enough men to use the arms to fight
Speaker 1: back the Russians. So are we gonna have a moment
Speaker 1: of clarity this weekend when they're all gonna wake up
Speaker 1: and say, you know what, Vladimir Putin's hand is a
Speaker 1: lot stronger than ours. We don't have anything to bargain with.
Speaker 1: We're gonna have to start cutting up Ukraine.
Speaker 4: You know, Brian, if there was going to be a
Speaker 4: moment of clarity, that it would have already come. These information,
Speaker 4: this fundamentals have been there almost from the beginning, and
Speaker 4: I've been, you know, beating my head against the wall.
Speaker 4: So if there was a moment of clarity, they would
Speaker 4: have already gotten it. So I doubt I honestly, I've
Speaker 4: out even now they'll have it. And in fact, some
Speaker 4: of the statements I've seen in just the last twenty
Speaker 4: four hours. This shows that a lot of the European
Speaker 4: leaders are still oblivious.
Speaker 2: To this and just no, no, no, no, we just
Speaker 2: need more stuff.
Speaker 4: We just need the US to give us more interceptor
Speaker 4: missiles or artillery pieces.
Speaker 2: Whatever fill in the blank. They just want.
Speaker 4: They just aren't willing to So I don't think even
Speaker 4: this will provide clarity. I think the only thing that
Speaker 4: could provide clarity is if you see Russian mechanized formations
Speaker 4: exploiting this penetration, and instead of just infantrymen who are
Speaker 4: limited by how fast you can you move to walk
Speaker 4: to portions of the front, they could then, once they
Speaker 4: have it broad enough, they can drive in and now
Speaker 4: then you could see not tens of kilometers falling per day,
Speaker 4: but hundreds of kilometers falling per day. Then you might
Speaker 4: get a moment of clarity where they realize, oh, snap,
Speaker 4: we either end this now or we could lose everything
Speaker 4: to the Dneppa River and possibly beyond, which is very
Speaker 4: much a real conces.
Speaker 1: Well, and let's assume that's gonna happen, because that's what
Speaker 1: seems to be going on every week we talk about it.
Speaker 1: Russia improves its hand. They seem to be in a
Speaker 1: collective state of denial obviously. So if Russia does go
Speaker 1: out away to the river and they get all the
Speaker 1: land that they're hoping to get, and they accomplish that,
Speaker 1: they bring the tanks in, they roll forward quicker, I
Speaker 1: suppose will Russia be able to hold it? You and
Speaker 1: I have talked about the concept of an ongoing, long term,
Speaker 1: protracted like guerrilla warfare. The Ukrainians will take to the
Speaker 1: hills whoever's left and constantly pester and shoot and attack
Speaker 1: the Russians in a piecemeal fashion, never giving them any
Speaker 1: peace whatsoever. Can the Russians maintain control over that region
Speaker 1: once they have control of it?
Speaker 4: They seem to think they can. And that's still I mean,
Speaker 4: the answer is really unanswerable right now. We can only project.
Speaker 4: But the Russians apparently are aware of that, have considered that,
Speaker 4: and are prepared for that, and they apparently will want
Speaker 4: to hold onto areas where it is mostly ethnic Russian.
Speaker 4: And look, I'm not going to defend this, but I'm
Speaker 4: just and say that I would guess, and no one's
Speaker 4: told me this, but known history, I would suggest that
Speaker 4: if they take this area to the Dipper, they'll probably
Speaker 4: expel any population that is not pro Russian, that doesn't
Speaker 4: want them, you'll see a version of ethnic cleansing, just
Speaker 4: like we did in World War Two in several places
Speaker 4: in the ugly aftermath of that fat You know, it
Speaker 4: happened when the Germans were moving forward, they ethnically cleansed areas,
Speaker 4: and when the Soviets came through, especially in Eastern Europe,
Speaker 4: they did the same things. And so I unfortunately would
Speaker 4: expect something like that to happen because Russia doesn't want
Speaker 4: to get into a situation like you described, so that
Speaker 4: they will try to clear it out. And they still
Speaker 4: expect tho that there would be some for they said.
Speaker 4: One source I've talked to you said, there's a five
Speaker 4: year plan post the end of this conflict where they
Speaker 4: expect to have to find that and then over time
Speaker 4: it'll peter out, which matches what we also saw in
Speaker 4: the post World War II area where the Soviets had
Speaker 4: a lot of that, especially in Hungary and Yugoslavia and
Speaker 4: some other areas. We saw that and it took four
Speaker 4: or five years to peter out before it finally did.
Speaker 2: And looks like the Russians are prepared for that. Well.
Speaker 1: We can have a long term discussion on it. But
Speaker 1: that sounds to me if I can draw a parallel
Speaker 1: and link its sover Because we haven't talked about Israel Gaza,
Speaker 1: it looks like Israel's going in and just going to
Speaker 1: completely try to like not say ethnically cleans, but basically
Speaker 1: try to throw everybody out of Gaza as a strategy.
Speaker 2: Now, well, I.
Speaker 4: Mean it is, and you can use whatever term you
Speaker 4: want to, but the net on the ground is it
Speaker 4: appears the same that they're trying to physically force everybody
Speaker 4: all the two point whatever is millionaire still left and
Speaker 4: move them into the southern part of the script, which
Speaker 4: is just like putting sardines in a can. And I
Speaker 4: don't know if you've seen any these pictures recently, but
Speaker 4: it's nothing but fields of tents and just lean tos
Speaker 4: and just i mean not even official tents, just tarps
Speaker 4: and whatever else that can get all in the rubble
Speaker 4: because there's nowhere to live, and that's not sustainable that
Speaker 4: you can't do that.
Speaker 2: It's not even at this point of matters.
Speaker 4: So much of making sure you get enough food aid
Speaker 4: you although that's obviously required to keep people from starving
Speaker 4: to death, but you can't sustain that can live that way.
Speaker 4: So either Israel's gonna have to relent and allow people
Speaker 4: back into other areas and spread them out and then rebuild,
Speaker 4: or somebody else is gonna have to take them to
Speaker 4: go out. Otherwise you'll probably literally start getting large scale
Speaker 4: die offs. And I just it's a horrible, horrible humanitarian situation.
Speaker 4: I don't see a good military outcome or a political
Speaker 4: outcome for Israel. I think they kind of box themselves
Speaker 4: into a position, even if people are very much pro Israel,
Speaker 4: I mean, militarily speaking, this is not sustainable and it's
Speaker 4: not going to bring peace to Israel. And I don't
Speaker 4: know what in it Yaho government's gonna do.
Speaker 1: Wow, boy, I wish we had better news. But you
Speaker 1: got to tell call him like you see him. Daniel
Speaker 1: Davis appreciate the time you spend my listeners to me
Speaker 1: every week. We'll do it again next Tuesday. Every Tuesday
Speaker 1: Daniel Davis Deep Dive and search for his podcast online.
Speaker 1: He's talking. He has some interesting and wonderful guests on
Speaker 1: his show. Daniel Davis Deep Dive. Great talking with my
Speaker 1: brother always a pleasure, Always my pleasure. Br Ryan see
Speaker 1: you next week, next Tuesday, eight forty Right now, five
Speaker 1: KRC the talk station. This is fifty five KRC and
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