Speaker 1: Hey, it's Alex with the Token Metrics Daily Pulse for
Speaker 1: April fifteenth, twenty twenty six. Bitcoin touched seventy five thousand
Speaker 1: dollars yesterday and couldn't hold it. The IMF dropped a
Speaker 1: global debt warning this morning, and meme coins are somehow
Speaker 1: up twelve percent on the week. Let's get into it,
Speaker 1: but first, a quick word from our sponsor. Okay, so
Speaker 1: here's what's happening. Bitcoin hit seventy five k yesterday. Today
Speaker 1: it's back at seventy four. That's the third time this
Speaker 1: level has acted as a ceiling, not a launch pad.
Speaker 1: A ceiling. Four hundred and eleven million dollars in ETF
Speaker 1: inflows showed up right after the touch. That sounds bullish,
Speaker 1: but think about what it actually means. Money chased the
Speaker 1: number and the price still couldn't hold. The sellers were ready,
Speaker 1: the buyers weren't. There is one encouraging sign. A research
Speaker 1: firm called K thirty three notes the current funding pattern
Speaker 1: looks similar to periods just before bitcoin bought up in
Speaker 1: the past, so it's not all bad news. But when
Speaker 1: a level becomes a ceiling three times in a row,
Speaker 1: the fourth attempt needs a different kind of catalyst. Quick
Speaker 1: look at where things stand. Ethereum and Salona are both
Speaker 1: down a little more than Bitcoin this week, pretty normal
Speaker 1: when the market goes into weight and ce mode. The
Speaker 1: total value locked in DeFi apps is sitting just under
Speaker 1: one hundred billion dollars and has been basically stable, which
Speaker 1: is a decent sign given all the macro noise. Meme
Speaker 1: coins are up twelve percent this week, liquid staking tokens
Speaker 1: are up fifteen percent. Everything else is flat or slightly down.
Speaker 1: Capital is still moving, it's just moving toward the most
Speaker 1: speculative corners of the market. And then there's this prediction.
Speaker 1: Markets are pricing a sixty five percent chance Bitcoin hits
Speaker 1: ninety five thousand dollars in April. Meanwhile, the odds of
Speaker 1: four FED rate cuts this year are under four percent.
Speaker 1: Those two things don't fit together neatly. Either Bitcoin has
Speaker 1: fully broken free from the broader economy or one of
Speaker 1: those markets is badly mispriced. All right, let's go through
Speaker 1: the stories that matter today. First, the IMF issued a
Speaker 1: global debt warning this morning. The obvious read is bearish.
Speaker 1: Tighter financial conditions, risk assets sell off. Bitcoin goes with them,
Speaker 1: probably right in the short term. But here's the second
Speaker 1: order take. If global debt really is unsustainable long term,
Speaker 1: the case for owning something scarce that no government controls
Speaker 1: get stronger, not weaker. The catch is that being right
Speaker 1: and being right soon are two very different things. Watch
Speaker 1: treasury yields this week. If yields keep rising and bitcoin
Speaker 1: holds above seventy two K, that's a sign bitcoin is
Speaker 1: starting to act more like gold. If yield spike in
Speaker 1: bitcoin drops below seventy two K, it's still just a
Speaker 1: risk as set next. Goldman Sachs filed paperwork for a
Speaker 1: Bitcoin Premium Income ETF. Here's why it matters. Pension funds
Speaker 1: and endowments have rules requiring them to earn income from
Speaker 1: their investments. A standard spot bitcoin ETF doesn't generate any yield,
Speaker 1: so those institutions can't use it. A covered call bitcoin
Speaker 1: ETF does generate yield by selling options on bitcoin's upside,
Speaker 1: which means it speaks the language those allocators need. That
Speaker 1: opens the door to a whole category of institutional money
Speaker 1: that currently can't touch Bitcoin at all. Now, World Liberty Financial,
Speaker 1: the Trump backed crypto project, is proposing to unlock six
Speaker 1: point two billion dollars in tokens. This same project borrowed
Speaker 1: seventy five million dollars against its own token just earlier
Speaker 1: this month, now wants to release billions more into a
Speaker 1: market that's already skeptical. That's either smart treasury management or
Speaker 1: aggressive self dealing, and in crypto governance, the line between
Speaker 1: those two is uncomfortably thin. When a project's biggest vulnerability
Speaker 1: is also its biggest shield, normal market signals stop working.
Speaker 1: Quick security note. Cowswap got hit by a DNS hijacked
Speaker 1: today in plain English. Someone redirected their website to a fake,
Speaker 1: malicious version. The team caught it fast and warned user's
Speaker 1: best case outcome for a bad situation. But this attack
Speaker 1: isn't sophisticated. It keeps working because most crypto apps rely
Speaker 1: on the same website infrastructure as any regular company. Your
Speaker 1: code can be perfectly secure, and users can still get
Speaker 1: hurt because someone tricked a domain registrar. Watch for cowswap's
Speaker 1: post mortem detailed and within forty eight hours means they
Speaker 1: handled it right. Vague or delayed is a red flag.
Speaker 1: A few quick hits, Virginia's governor signed a law giving
Speaker 1: crypto holders up to a year before dormant assets can
Speaker 1: be seized, meaningful protection for cold storage users. Tether launched
Speaker 1: a consumer's self custody wallet called People's Wallet, and the
Speaker 1: Frankfurt Stock Exchange Operator announced a two hundred million dollars
Speaker 1: investment in Kraken, one of Europe's oldest financial institutions, putting
Speaker 1: serious money into crypto, the kind of story that gets
Speaker 1: buried under price headlines but actually matters all right, before
Speaker 1: we get into the risks, quick word from our sponsor. Okay,
Speaker 1: we're back. Let's talk about what to watch for. Three
Speaker 1: things on my radar. First, sentiment is stretched for a
Speaker 1: market that just failed to break out. Sixty five percent
Speaker 1: odds on bitcoin hitting ninety five k in April is
Speaker 1: a lot of optimism. When everyone's already leaning toward the upside,
Speaker 1: there's less buying power left to actually drive it there. Second,
Speaker 1: the World Liberty financial token unlock is a massive liquidity
Speaker 1: event wrapped in political complexity. This one is harder to
Speaker 1: read than a normal unlock, which means you could see
Speaker 1: either a big overreaction or a suspicious non reaction, and
Speaker 1: either creates risk for anyone holding similar projects. Third, the
Speaker 1: Cowswap attack is a reminder that nearly one hundred billion
Speaker 1: dollars in deffy sits behind website security that most regular
Speaker 1: companies would consider inadequate. A coordinated attack on multiple high
Speaker 1: value crypto sites at once could cause damage well beyond
Speaker 1: any single project. That risk is real and largely unpriced.
Speaker 1: Three things to watch this week. The World Liberty Financial
Speaker 1: Governance vote on that six point two billion dollar unlock
Speaker 1: approval creates sell pressure, rejection creates drama, and either outcome
Speaker 1: makes headlines. The Goldman sacks Bitcoin income ETF filing. How
Speaker 1: fast the SEC responds will tell you whether yield generating
Speaker 1: bitcoin products are on a regulatory fast track or not.
Speaker 1: And Bernstein put out a call that prediction market volumes
Speaker 1: could hit one trillion dollars by twenty thirty, with Robinhood
Speaker 1: and coinbase as the key players. That's a structural bet
Speaker 1: on where every day investors are heading next, and it
Speaker 1: has real implications for which platforms win the next wave
Speaker 1: of users. That's the pulse for April fifteenth. If you
Speaker 1: found this useful, share it with someone who's trying to
Speaker 1: make sense of crypto right now. That's honestly the best
Speaker 1: way to help the show grow and if you want
Speaker 1: daily market signals plus weekly breakdowns, head over to tokenmetrics
Speaker 1: dot com. This is educational content, not investment advice. Always
Speaker 1: do your own research before making any financial decisions. I'm Alex,
Speaker 1: See you next time.