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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fantasy Hockey Life, presented by fan Tracks. Here's

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your source of information and analysis to help you win

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your fantasy hockey league.

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Speaker 2: Block off, hop a step hit on, Stay lock.

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Speaker 1: Here's your hosts, Jesse Severe and Victor Nuno leads.

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Speaker 2: Hockey Live back once again to talk fantasy hockey. Jesse

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Severe fantracks. Victor Nounyo is the man from EP ringside.

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How you doing, Victor?

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Speaker 3: I'm stretching over here, Jesse. I'm being very careful in

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my podcasting chair. I don't want to get injured in

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the preseason.

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Speaker 4: That yeah problem.

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Speaker 2: That's a bad thing. You don't want to be injured

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in the preseason. It's just it's just not the way

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to go. Pictor. There've already been injuries in the preseason.

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I understand.

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Speaker 4: I saw.

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Speaker 2: I haven't seen the hit yet, but somebody in one

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of our discords went nuclear last night with Patrick Leone,

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so I don't know what's going on over there. Who

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what happened there? Victor? Did you see it?

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Speaker 4: I did? Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I don't remember the guy's name, but it was some

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no name guy trying to make the leafs and he

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stepped up with the blue line, which could have been okay,

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but he stuck his knee out. In my opinion, there

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are varying opinions out there, but it sure looked like

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he stuck his knee out and Lione's knee went the

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wrong direction and.

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Speaker 4: It looks really bad. It looks like a blowout. We'll

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see what happens.

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Speaker 3: Hoping he's okay, but to me, it looks like he

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probably tore some ligaments and it's going to be out

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most if not the whole season.

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Speaker 2: If he tore ligaments in his leg went the wrong way,

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he's a hockey player. He'll be out two weeks, spray

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some icy hot on it, and be back. That's fine, Victor,

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We've got it's basically very close to the regular season.

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We suspect that people are in draft mode, so we

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are going to give you just a little bit of

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draft content in the next couple of episodes.

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Speaker 4: Victor.

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Speaker 2: Today's episode is something that people can be discussed on

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our discord. It's the place to be if you're looking

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to talk fantasy hockey. Maybe you're coming into those last

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minute drafts. Maybe you are thinking, how am I gonna

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be picking? I know, every once in a while, I

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get a panicked email or message not email, usually like

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a usually an X message from somebody who's on the

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clock saying ooh, who do I take? Here? Who do

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I take? And I'm like, I hope you're in a

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slow draft because I don't have an answer for you

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that quick. But Victor, people could be talking about on

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our discord, which is free. All you have to do

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is hit us up on X. Maybe when people hit

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me up on X with their draft picks, I'll say,

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here's the link to the discord. Dude, just get in

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there or do that and try to figure out your

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draft strategy with a hive mind of like minded people.

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But Victor, the discord, which Fantasy HOCKEYLFE at gmail dot

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com or one of our exo's at Fanhockey Life at

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Victor Nunio twelve can get you into for free, is

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not the only thing we have to offer. We also

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have some other goodness. Tell the people about it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. Usually when people DM me like that, I say

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that kind of advice is reserved for patrons only, So

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I will give them the link to the discord and

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they can ask around. But if they want, if you

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want personalized advice, like that's one of the benefits of

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being a Fantasy Hockey Life patron, so I don't do

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that for just anyone. Unfortunately, it would not be fair

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to the patrons. But as I'm alluding to, that is

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one of the big patron perks. There's all kinds of

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great stuff at patreon dot com slash Fantasy Hockey Life,

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including personalized messaging, attention and getting help with your decisions drafts,

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things like that. You can have a roster doctor one

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on one session where we can look at the whole

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team in context. There's patron casts, there's Patreon Priority Channel.

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There's ability to play in the Tidy the Tier Dynasty,

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which you can get on the waiting list.

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Speaker 4: For, which would be great.

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Speaker 3: I'm sure right now we're looking great, but you never know,

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someone might have to step aside. And yeah, there's lots

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of great content. If you want to support the show,

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that would be the way to do it. Patron com

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Last Fantasy Hockey Life.

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Speaker 2: It's okay, Victor, It's okay. That's a patron perk. And

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I sometimes answered those excees because you know me, I

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usually am slow to get the exes, and I give

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really bad advice to people who reached out for free.

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Now that's not true, but but it's limited and you

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definitely should get in there and talk to Victor. And yeah,

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the Roster Doctor, I've done one of those. That's really cool.

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Just to really stop and talk hockey and break down

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somebody's roster with them is actually fun for me and

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cool for you and Victor. We're gonna take a break,

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come back. It's just do me today. Victor, you did

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some great writing for the EP Ringside Draft Guide this year.

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You participated in that, and we're gonna talk about a

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couple of the areas that you analyze some of the

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players that you touted today and you're gonna talk about

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while you picked them out. I'm gonna give a couple

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of reactions, a little more content and we'll see how

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it goes. We're gonna start out with some bangers, the

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bangers and did they call them bangers in mash actually

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or just bangers? Leaks in in the EP ring Side

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I don't know. That might be copyright Peter Harlane. But

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we're gonna start out with the first banger on the list,

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and that is Jeremy Lazan of the Nashville Predators. What

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makes him one of your picks picker, Yeah, Lazan. Just

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so everyone knows.

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Speaker 3: One of the things that I did to prepare for

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this is they have some great tools over at Dauber

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Prospects Dauber Tools, I'm sorry, Frozen tools, and you can

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look by all sorts of things. So I was looking

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at multi category guys, looking at just hits, just blocks,

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just shots, shots to hits and blocks, pims, hits and blocks, like,

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there's different combinations you can organize, which I thought was

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super helpful. And basically, any way you cut it, Jeremy

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Laizan is amazing. He basically does everything and he's an

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incredible player. And if you've ever had him this, if

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you haven't, this might be news to you. I have

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not ever rostered him, and so I was, huh, I

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hadn't really quite realized how amazing he is.

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Speaker 4: But he is.

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Speaker 3: He stands alone. But no matter which way you cut it,

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except his shots are not amazing, but the hits are ridiculous.

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The blocks are pretty outstanding as well. The shots are

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just over close to one and a half per game,

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and the guy only gets you know, sixteen to seventeen

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to eighteen minutes a night. It's not like he's playing

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a ton of minutes and he plays for Nashville. In

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case you're not sure, but he's a bash master. The

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only thing that makes him not Brady Kichuk on defense

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is that he doesn't really score that much. His career

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high is fourteen points, which he hit this year. He

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also played the one of the most time on ice

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he's ever played, so maybe there's a possibility that he

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could get a little bit more. Nashville is looking a

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little bit better, and that would be cool if he

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could get close to close to twenty eight minutes. He

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might even increase these numbers. But Lazan is the bash

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Master because he does it all. And you know this,

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He's simply incredible for any league that counts these things.

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Speaker 2: Jesse Victory, You, I don't know why I had this

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blind spot, but despite my bashed loving ways, I had

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not appreciated how much of anutler this guy was. You're

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not kidding when you says the mash Master. He led

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the NHL in hits last year by fifty nine hits.

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That was the most that was tied for the most

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hits in the NHL by anyone in the evolving hockey era.

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I ran Evolving Hockey from two thousand and seven eight

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to present. That's the most hits anybody has had in

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a season three hundred and eighty two. That came with

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over one hundred blocks, over one hundred shots, and his

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hits for sixty has more than doubled since his days

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in Boston, which is where I remember him from, back

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when he was a Boston Bruin coming up. Was he

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exactly good as a player, not necessarily. Nearly everybody who's

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paired with had lower expected goals or rate when with

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him than with others, and so the team's defense didn't

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improve with them either. But the man has a role.

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Victor ep Ringside does not rank him in their top

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fifty six. I think that's why he was a particularly

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a good one to call out. I thoroughly approve of

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this recommendation. If you were playing in a banger's cat

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league every week and you pick Lawson in the fifth round,

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I'd say you got a strategy, And while that would

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be insanity in a points league, I'd also have to

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nod and say I get it. This is the Tom

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Wilson theory that in a bangers league where categories are

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all weighted equally. This is a category killer for hits.

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So Victor, I love the las On talk.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, let's move Tom Wilson to shame Jesse shame. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he's a defenseman. He's supposed to but yeah, Tom

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Wilson wishes that he was aggressive as Jeremy Lazan Victor.

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The second of our bangers, who we're going to talk about,

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second of our bash masters is Mackenzie Weaker. What makes

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him your man?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, he's really good too, and no matter which way

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you look at it, he's pretty much top five hits,

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block shots, if you add shots, if you take it out,

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if you put pims in, he's pretty much great no

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matter which way you want to slice it. And the

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thing that's amazing about Wiger that is totally different from

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Lasagn is he scores a lot of points for defenseman too.

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And the other thing that I think is particularly good,

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and some people use this as a negative, but Mackenzie

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Wiger does not need power play time to score points.

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He had fifteen power play points last season, which was

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his career high by more than double So he actually

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did get some power play time last year and he

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made the most of it, but quite Frankly, I'm not

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really sure that he needs it because remember those years

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in Florida.

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Speaker 4: I'm sure a lot of people do.

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Speaker 3: When he was scoring lots of points and he had

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a higher point pace in Florida than he did in

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Calgary even though he had more total points Calgary this

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past season, but he was getting no power play time.

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And those high point years in Florida he was getting

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three power play points. One year he had zero and

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he had thirty three even strength points. That kind of

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production is incredible. So we don't know what's gonna happen

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in Calgary this year and if he loses all that

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power play time, and in some ways, I'm not even

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worried about it because his bash is still going to

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be incredible, and I think that he can still easily

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score forty points without any power play time, or even

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if he regresses all the way down to zero power

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play points, which he's not going to do. But that's

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what makes weger so interesting. And you got this super

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high floor and then you got you know, the cherry

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on top, which is how many points he gets, which

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is he's definitely he gives away a lot of hits

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and blocks to Lazan, but man, those points are going

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to be so much better. So in one of those

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categories leagues, he just stuffs absolutely every category and he

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shoots more than twice what Lazan does, So you get

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more shots. You get definitely fewer hits, but but almost

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a little bit more in the blocks area, and the

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pims are decent too. Yeah, he's just an absolute gem.

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Jesse and I, of course you want defenseman the good

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power play time, but guys like this who aren't going

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to fall off a cliff if they don't have it,

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are also super valuable, don't you think.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely? And you know what you generally don't do on

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the power play victor, you don't hit and block. So

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if you want those categories, the power play is not

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the place to get it. The power play is the

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place to juice those points. Absolutely. But it's interesting. I

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ran his career stats and his points per sixty were

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at the second highest of his career last year. He

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played a ton of minutes. Last year was a career

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high in minutes by a few over his last year

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in Florida. His rates in the bash categories were all

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peak levels for him last year. He's crazy, durable, he's

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gonna get the special team's time on it, He's going

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to get some short handed time on ice. That's good

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to get those things. He's not a sleeper, but he

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feels like he could give me what I hope to

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get from Darnell Nurse every year, which is he looks

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amazing because he can get just enough points and then

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put up the peripherals like Gangbusters. In last year that didn't,

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that kind of started to fell off. E p. Ringside

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rates him as D thirty four. That's way too low

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in my opinion. If and maybe that's because it's points

248
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and not categories or doesn't reward hits and blocks. But

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with no handefin the stats crending up for Wiger across

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the board, I consider him a value for this year.

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I approved this message, Victor, you have recommended well with

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Mackenzie Wiger. Moving on, we got Radco Gudash, Victor, what

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makes him the defenseman for the Anaheim Ducks one of

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your picks.

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Speaker 3: The new captain of the Anaheim Ducks.

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Speaker 4: That was fine.

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Speaker 3: We found that out this week as we're recording. That's

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a good time. I guess I didn't really know. I'm

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not sure who else they would have picked it certainly

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wasn't going to be Travor d. Yeah, Gouddas another one

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of these guys who you know. He absolutely is a

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monster for the hits, blocks and not so much the shots.

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But the penalty minutes are also really up there for Goudas,

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so it gives you just that super high floor. I'm

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looking around too, I was trying to find who's on

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a team that might score a little bit more or

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or who might get a little bit of boost in

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their scoring, and that's what I was trying to figure

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out with Goudas. I'm not sure that it's going to happen,

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but they certainly have a lot of faith in him,

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and it could right now his current he did have

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some decent point totals back in his early Tampa and

273
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Philly days, nearly thirty point pace. This past season he

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was at twenty two. That's not the biggest factor. But

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unlike the other two guys we talked about, the pims

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for Goudas is massive. He's definitely a guy who will fight.

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He will take a fair amount of penalties. I'm not

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usually one who likes that, but I know I just

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agreed to play this content League, Jesse. This Joe's versus pros,

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which is gonna be fun.

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Speaker 4: I hope.

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Speaker 3: I'm embarrassed myself and they have penalty minutes and I

283
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was like, oh God, here we go. I haven't played

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in one of these leagues in a very long time.

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But it's fine. It's one of those things that it

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is reproducible and it is somewhat predictable, so you can

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see what you need to do here. The other thing

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about Goddess that is different from the first three we

289
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talked about is he is actually a really incredible two

290
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way player.

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Speaker 4: You may not have thought this.

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Speaker 3: I didn't always think this, but and I'm not sure

293
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that this was always true, but in the past several

294
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years he has really been an effective two way player.

295
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He drives play the other direction, which is something that

296
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the Ducks are going to really need for him. So

297
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he gives you just a really high perferal floor. In particular,

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it's a little bit more even, I would say, compared

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to the other guys, where a couple of them are

300
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just super big with hits with blocks, his blocks are

301
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actually all of them are. All of the stats are incredible,

302
00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:03,039
except for the shots for Udas and I'm thinking maybe

303
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he can get up to thirty points this year if

304
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the duck starts going more and he's out there for

305
00:15:07,039 --> 00:15:09,240
twenty minutes, because I'm pretty sure they're going to give

306
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him even more ice time as the captain. So that's

307
00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:14,840
my thought process on Gouddas Jesse. What do you think?

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00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:18,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, I love this one too. Gudash spent a year

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in Washington, so I watched him a little bit more

310
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up close there and Victor. I also when I went

311
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to Prague in the Czech Republic a few years ago

312
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or a couple of years ago on vacation, I said, I

313
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need to know who the players are from Prague, Czech Republic,

314
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And would you know the leader in career games played

315
00:15:37,320 --> 00:15:41,480
from Prague is Radko Gudash and next to him Tomas S. Hurtle.

316
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So I love Raiko Gudash. He's long been one of

317
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my favorite Bangerties. I definitely have among some teams. His

318
00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:50,720
hit totals not as Gotdy as Lasan, but keep in

319
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mind he missed eighteen games. I admit I'm not the

320
00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:56,759
encyclopedia of NHL history the way some are, but I

321
00:15:56,799 --> 00:16:00,279
wonder how many players get named captain after one year

322
00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:04,559
on their fifth NHL club. I don't think that happens much,

323
00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:07,240
but that might speak to the Ducks as much as

324
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it does to Gudash. He's not just a thug. He

325
00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:13,480
kind as a roughlican dude. People may results may vary,

326
00:16:13,519 --> 00:16:16,279
but he is a good player. Second on the team

327
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and goals above replacement. I mentioned on our Anaheim Ducks

328
00:16:19,440 --> 00:16:22,080
episode and our guest Derek Lee called him the team's

329
00:16:22,200 --> 00:16:25,399
best right handed option on defense when he was on

330
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with us. He actually I don't even know. I think

331
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I was gonna not talk about Gudash and he brought

332
00:16:31,519 --> 00:16:34,240
him up. I'm pretty sure that's what happened on that one.

333
00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:36,799
That's how I choose to remember it. And if I

334
00:16:36,840 --> 00:16:38,919
were to predict one player in the NHL gets two

335
00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:41,679
hundred blocks and three hundred hits next year, it would

336
00:16:41,679 --> 00:16:45,799
be Ridko Gudash. His paces should get him close to

337
00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:50,279
that if he has a full eighty two games. Victor,

338
00:16:50,840 --> 00:16:55,960
this is definitely the banger to end all bangers, Victor.

339
00:16:56,279 --> 00:16:59,279
Charlie McAvoy is the next one. I don't always think

340
00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:02,080
of him as at and maybe some others don't, So

341
00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:05,039
what is putting him on your Banger's list.

342
00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:08,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, he was definitely one of these things. Is not

343
00:17:08,319 --> 00:17:10,519
like the other kind of an idea, But I was

344
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really wanting someone who I thought could who had a

345
00:17:14,000 --> 00:17:16,799
strong Perferle floor but could take a big step forward.

346
00:17:16,799 --> 00:17:19,279
We talked about Wiger, of all the ones we talked about,

347
00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:22,839
clearly has the most points up side of those, But

348
00:17:23,279 --> 00:17:25,480
McAvoy is on another level because if any of these

349
00:17:25,480 --> 00:17:27,920
guys are going to hit seventy points, it's definitely going

350
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to be McAvoy. It's not going to be Lasn, It's

351
00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:32,240
not going to be I don't even know that Weiger

352
00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:36,960
could get that high. But yeah, McAvoy has a good

353
00:17:37,359 --> 00:17:40,079
Perferle floor. I wouldn't say it's amazing. He definitely hits

354
00:17:40,079 --> 00:17:43,160
a fair amount, he blocks a fairmount. He shoots actually

355
00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:45,599
a little bit less than Weiger. Just get into that

356
00:17:45,640 --> 00:17:48,559
two shots per game, and his pims are pretty good.

357
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He'll get like around a pim per game is his pace.

358
00:17:51,599 --> 00:17:53,680
But the thing that really stuck out to me with

359
00:17:53,799 --> 00:17:57,200
McAvoy is we had flutitionians out on the pie and

360
00:17:57,319 --> 00:17:59,839
he was basically like, they need more from that.

361
00:18:00,559 --> 00:18:03,440
Speaker 4: He's he needs to be the man. He needs to

362
00:18:03,680 --> 00:18:04,759
They're paying him a lot.

363
00:18:05,079 --> 00:18:08,039
Speaker 3: They're going to lean on him, and he's had a

364
00:18:08,079 --> 00:18:12,200
sixty four point pace. He's also had fairly recently forty

365
00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:15,759
eight point paces, and he's had the in the fifties.

366
00:18:16,319 --> 00:18:19,759
I think he can get, you know, above seventy and

367
00:18:20,119 --> 00:18:22,319
he's gonna get all the power play time. I don't

368
00:18:22,359 --> 00:18:24,640
really think it's going to go to Hampus Linholm. Did

369
00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:26,680
you realize that we have two Linholmes on Boston? Now

370
00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:29,200
this is going to be confusing Hampus and alias.

371
00:18:29,119 --> 00:18:30,880
Speaker 4: Why do you do that? Gus?

372
00:18:31,079 --> 00:18:33,359
Speaker 3: So that's gonna be I don't think it's going to

373
00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:35,440
be Hampus though. I think it's gonna be Macavoy. They're

374
00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:39,839
going to lean on him, and I think that his

375
00:18:40,160 --> 00:18:42,920
points could make the big difference here if you're wanting

376
00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:47,079
someone who has a pretty high bash floor, which a

377
00:18:47,079 --> 00:18:50,079
lot of these top power play defensemen don't, because, as

378
00:18:50,079 --> 00:18:52,240
you said, if you're more of an offensive guy, you're

379
00:18:52,279 --> 00:18:55,000
not necessarily hitting in blocking a lot, you have the puck,

380
00:18:55,079 --> 00:18:56,200
you're in the offensive zone.

381
00:18:56,279 --> 00:18:58,039
Speaker 4: So that could be a bit different.

382
00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:02,279
Speaker 3: Looking at the guide, the cam hasn't projected for fifty

383
00:19:02,319 --> 00:19:03,799
seven points in eighty one games.

384
00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:06,599
Speaker 4: I think you can go well over that. That's my thought.

385
00:19:06,599 --> 00:19:10,240
Speaker 2: What do you think, Jessie, Yeah, I he is a

386
00:19:10,279 --> 00:19:14,039
sneaky basher. It's a good catch with this stat set

387
00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:16,960
victor because he's not. I don't think of him that way.

388
00:19:17,039 --> 00:19:19,559
But hundred shots, one hundred and fifty hits, one hundred

389
00:19:19,559 --> 00:19:23,720
and fifty blocks, and forty points. Only four players got

390
00:19:23,799 --> 00:19:27,079
that stat set last year. So again, hundred shots, one

391
00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:29,079
hundred and fifty hits, one hundred and fifty blocks and

392
00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:33,440
forty points. Meritz Cider, Mackenzie Wiger, Charlie McAvoy, and Rasmus

393
00:19:33,559 --> 00:19:35,880
Dollin only four players in the league who did that.

394
00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:39,680
But yeah, I agree. Fluto really caught my attention with this,

395
00:19:39,799 --> 00:19:44,400
saying sixty plus points is the expectation for him. The

396
00:19:44,440 --> 00:19:49,039
only question for me is every year me and several

397
00:19:49,039 --> 00:19:51,839
others predict that the Bruins are finally going to decline,

398
00:19:51,880 --> 00:19:55,119
and if that ever were to happen, maybe there's something

399
00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:58,559
come out. But I'm sick of predicting against him to

400
00:19:58,640 --> 00:20:03,160
this point. EP Preview ranks him D sixteen in a

401
00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:05,319
cats league. I think you push him up just to

402
00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:08,720
touch above that. In the points league. That floor of

403
00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:12,920
periffs would be an awfully tempting thing. Victory. I approve

404
00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:16,759
of this selection. I approve Victor. I approve of you.

405
00:20:17,039 --> 00:20:19,079
I approve of you as a human. I approve of

406
00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:22,400
you as a prognosticator. You're just a pretty smart dude,

407
00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:23,039
if you ask.

408
00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:28,079
Speaker 3: Me, I appreciate that. Just one more thing on McAvoy.

409
00:20:28,599 --> 00:20:30,240
He's the kind of guy I think that if you

410
00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:33,079
have him as your number one d you're not so

411
00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:35,039
happy about that, But if you have him as your

412
00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:37,359
number two d, oh man, things are good. Right, Like,

413
00:20:37,440 --> 00:20:41,599
you got a pretty good secondary defenseman, and if you

414
00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:44,279
pair him with one of those really elite scores and

415
00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:45,799
then things could be pretty good for you.

416
00:20:46,839 --> 00:20:47,200
Speaker 4: Yeah.

417
00:20:47,319 --> 00:20:49,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure, we're gonna take a break. We're gonna

418
00:20:49,839 --> 00:21:05,400
come back and talk a few regression guys. Victor. We

419
00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:07,119
got a we just had a couple of bashers. We

420
00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:11,039
got some more regression guys. First of all, Sam Ryan Hart, Victor,

421
00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:13,400
Why Sam Reinhart.

422
00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:19,400
Speaker 3: Twenty four point five? That's why, end of discussion. I'm kidding.

423
00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:22,359
That was his shooting percentage this year. It doesn't take

424
00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:25,359
a genius to realize that he's And Kolbe guy said

425
00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:28,720
it on the Everyone you talk to knows, and Sam

426
00:21:28,759 --> 00:21:31,920
knows that he cooked hot this year. He shot almost

427
00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:34,799
a quarter of his shots went in. That's incredible. That

428
00:21:34,839 --> 00:21:37,480
has never happened for anyone's career. But these kind of

429
00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:41,000
things can sustain first season. So fifty seven goals when

430
00:21:41,039 --> 00:21:44,720
he had never cracked forty is pretty pretty outrageous. We

431
00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:47,160
were having the discussion of can can he even crack

432
00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:51,000
forty again? That would be a good season. And he's

433
00:21:51,039 --> 00:21:54,440
clearly talented, He clearly can score a lot, and Florida's

434
00:21:54,759 --> 00:21:57,640
gonna be good again. They didn't completely lose their whole team,

435
00:21:57,759 --> 00:22:00,559
So that's the big rub here is how much. And

436
00:22:00,599 --> 00:22:02,720
I wrote and the guy that if you regressed a

437
00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:05,079
bunch of his numbers, he would have lost twenty goals,

438
00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:08,000
thirty seven goals, not fifty seven. And that's where I

439
00:22:08,039 --> 00:22:10,759
think he can end up next year. So he'll be

440
00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:16,319
closer to that seventy to seventy and eighty point player,

441
00:22:16,599 --> 00:22:20,000
and I think that's totally reasonable. So I think regression

442
00:22:20,039 --> 00:22:21,960
is coming. It doesn't mean he's going to be terrible,

443
00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:24,000
but if you're expecting one hundred point Ryan Hart, you're

444
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:26,240
going to be disappointed. If you think he can be

445
00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:29,319
seventy five eighty point. Ryan Hart, Yeah, I think we

446
00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:31,119
can get on board with that. So you just need

447
00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:34,079
to set your expectations correctly. I think, what do you think, Jesse.

448
00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:38,119
Speaker 2: Yeah, you speak sense Victory, you speak. Since he led

449
00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:42,160
the team in power play goals shooting percentage, his goals jumped,

450
00:22:42,319 --> 00:22:44,799
just spiked. Like you said that shooting percentage meant he

451
00:22:44,839 --> 00:22:48,079
went from thirty one goals to fifty seven, almost doubling.

452
00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:51,319
That's just nuts. He did get Selke votes last year,

453
00:22:51,759 --> 00:22:56,759
so that's good. Before we completely right off this improvement, though,

454
00:22:57,079 --> 00:22:59,519
let's remember I went back and looked at who was

455
00:22:59,559 --> 00:23:02,359
playing with fun evolving hockey. He went from a whole

456
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:04,640
lot of Anton Lindell to a whole lot of Sasha

457
00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:08,559
Barkoff as his center, and his numbers have spiked every

458
00:23:08,559 --> 00:23:12,319
time he's gone with Sasha Barkoff over the years. He

459
00:23:12,440 --> 00:23:15,640
had Tarashenko at the end of last year. He loses

460
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:18,680
him this year. But if he continues to get Carter

461
00:23:18,799 --> 00:23:21,599
for Hanky on the other wing, that's a darn good line.

462
00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:25,920
It's not unreasonable to say that the truth is somewhere

463
00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:32,359
in between last year and career. Sam Reinhart, I think

464
00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:37,160
that like forty eight goals could be possible. Because Barkoff

465
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:41,359
ep Ringside has him forward twenty nine. I really don't

466
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:43,799
see him. There might be some guys who just show

467
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:45,960
up to the draft, look at last year's staffed and

468
00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:49,759
stats and say, yeah, we're going to take Reinhart this

469
00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:53,599
hive twenty nine or higher. I don't think that happens.

470
00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:56,359
The sharps, I think, are going to underrate him. The

471
00:23:57,599 --> 00:24:00,480
maybe the more casual are going to overrate him. I

472
00:24:00,519 --> 00:24:03,880
can't see him really going forward twenty nine. If he does,

473
00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:09,119
I agree, that would be a mistake. Victor. Next up,

474
00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:12,359
we have a young man who just got paid in

475
00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:16,119
the Motor City, Lucas Raymond tell us why he is

476
00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:17,759
one of your regression candidates.

477
00:24:18,759 --> 00:24:21,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, there were a couple of things. His shooting percentage

478
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:25,000
being six percent points over his career average. There was

479
00:24:25,519 --> 00:24:28,359
a big difference there, and I think one of the

480
00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:31,400
problems with when you have a high shooting percentage, the

481
00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:33,559
one of the best biggest things you can do to

482
00:24:33,599 --> 00:24:38,160
mitigate that risk is to shoot more. And Raymond doesn't

483
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:40,119
shoot a whole lot. We will find out if he

484
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:44,559
shoots more, because this year he shot point two shots

485
00:24:44,559 --> 00:24:47,440
per game more, which wasn't really a whole lot, and

486
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:49,720
that so that shooting percentage, if he continues to shoot

487
00:24:49,759 --> 00:24:52,680
around two per game, he's gonna regress and he's going

488
00:24:52,759 --> 00:24:56,039
to lose a handful of goals, maybe even up to ten,

489
00:24:56,519 --> 00:24:58,160
and so that's going to bring him back down to

490
00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:01,720
a sixty point player, which is his career. I think,

491
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:04,960
and I've said in my Ketchup and Mustard episode, that

492
00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:08,000
he can do better than that. He does seem like

493
00:25:08,039 --> 00:25:10,640
he's turning the quarter and breaking out, but he's going

494
00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:12,079
to have to shoot I think of a lot more

495
00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:14,920
than that to make to mitigate some of this risks.

496
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:16,440
He's going to have to get over that two hundred

497
00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:20,920
shot hump, which he was closer to in his first season,

498
00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:24,319
and he's been far away from in his last two seasons,

499
00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:28,279
so ideally closer to two fifty. That seems a little

500
00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:29,960
unreasonable for him at this point.

501
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:30,880
Speaker 4: But yeah, I think that.

502
00:25:30,839 --> 00:25:33,000
Speaker 3: There's just a little bit of worry there. That the

503
00:25:33,079 --> 00:25:35,799
team around him, I think has gotten a little bit better.

504
00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:38,160
There is a little bit more scoring depth, which is

505
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:41,440
good than not going to necessarily rely on him. But

506
00:25:42,319 --> 00:25:44,759
I'm a little worried that he regresses a little bit.

507
00:25:44,759 --> 00:25:46,240
I don't think it's going to be a whole lot,

508
00:25:46,799 --> 00:25:49,559
But it's up to him. If he decides that he

509
00:25:49,599 --> 00:25:53,119
can really turn things around and turn up his shot volume,

510
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:56,160
get a little bit more time on ice, then I

511
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:58,720
think he could mitigate that and he could be fine.

512
00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:01,200
But these are things that we don't know. So if

513
00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:04,119
all stays the same, he's definite regression candidate.

514
00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:07,880
Speaker 2: Jesse, Yeah, fair enough. I like this though. It's spicy

515
00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:11,759
because I think so many people are talking about Raymond

516
00:26:11,759 --> 00:26:14,920
as a breakout candidate as the Detroit Red Wings get better.

517
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:18,400
But you're right in nineteen percent shooting that is going

518
00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:22,079
to lead you to a career high in goals. Depending

519
00:26:22,079 --> 00:26:26,200
on whether you think of players' stats going up or

520
00:26:26,279 --> 00:26:29,240
down after they get along contract, that's in play. I

521
00:26:29,319 --> 00:26:32,079
did a Dynasty Sports Life as my other podcast. I

522
00:26:32,079 --> 00:26:34,599
always mentioned it at the end of the show. Last

523
00:26:34,599 --> 00:26:39,240
week I did the first of my city episodes, and

524
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:43,279
what I did was I combined all four major sports

525
00:26:43,319 --> 00:26:46,599
teams from Detroit. I'm doing it city by city and

526
00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:50,319
combined the players over four sports and did rankings for prospects,

527
00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:54,200
did rankings for pros, old men who might contribute and

528
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:58,480
just men of Mystery, and both Dylan Larkin and Lucas

529
00:26:58,559 --> 00:27:02,640
Raymond played high in those highly in those ranks, and

530
00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:06,000
I definitely like Larkin more than Raymond, but the EP

531
00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:09,519
ringside guy does not. If his price is truly forward

532
00:27:09,599 --> 00:27:12,319
thirty four and left wing ten in the NHL, I

533
00:27:12,319 --> 00:27:16,039
think we're off the mark here. I even if Larkin

534
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:19,759
is center only, I definitely like him more. Raymond doesn't

535
00:27:19,799 --> 00:27:23,160
have to necessarily, it's not about him versus Larkin. But

536
00:27:23,839 --> 00:27:26,960
I do think you're absolutely right in the regression monster

537
00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:28,480
is coming for a man here.

538
00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:33,319
Speaker 3: Interesting though, is that Cam, who did all the number

539
00:27:33,319 --> 00:27:36,160
of projections projects him to be point per game.

540
00:27:36,319 --> 00:27:38,000
Speaker 4: Cam was just like, I don't care what you think.

541
00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:41,559
Speaker 3: I love Lucas Raymond and stampo approval.

542
00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:44,519
Speaker 2: All right, Cam gets the final word at EP Ringside

543
00:27:44,519 --> 00:27:48,000
and wisely, But next Victor, we're gonna go to the

544
00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:52,799
Vegas Golden Knights, Shay Theodore defenceman. Victor. What makes him

545
00:27:52,799 --> 00:27:54,279
a regression candidate.

546
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:59,559
Speaker 3: There's this little thing called individual points participation, which we've

547
00:27:59,599 --> 00:28:04,440
talked a lot IPP, and that IPP is what describes

548
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:06,799
your participation in the points that are scored when you're

549
00:28:06,799 --> 00:28:08,880
out there and Shay.

550
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:13,799
Speaker 4: Theodore had an elite AIPP and power Play IPP.

551
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:16,720
Speaker 3: Basically everything was happening when he was out there, and

552
00:28:17,279 --> 00:28:20,759
he is a good player, and top players, elite players

553
00:28:20,839 --> 00:28:27,319
have elite IPPs. His is just in the generational category.

554
00:28:27,519 --> 00:28:30,480
He's in like the McDavid prosby category, and I don't

555
00:28:30,519 --> 00:28:33,279
know that he's that type of player. He never has been.

556
00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:36,039
So his numbers were just way higher than they ever

557
00:28:36,079 --> 00:28:39,119
had his. Both of his numbers upon the power Play

558
00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:42,119
at and even strength were career highs by massive numbers,

559
00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:46,240
which unless he has become a completely different player at

560
00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:49,200
twenty nine, I don't know that it's fair to assume

561
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:51,240
that's going to continue. I'm pretty sure that it's going

562
00:28:51,279 --> 00:28:54,440
to come back down to a more reasonable number, and

563
00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:57,680
if it does, he will be shedding quite a few

564
00:28:57,759 --> 00:29:00,759
number of points. And if that's the case for Theodore,

565
00:29:01,119 --> 00:29:04,839
then you can expect fewer. The other thing that really

566
00:29:04,839 --> 00:29:06,839
worries me about Theodore that no one seems to be

567
00:29:06,839 --> 00:29:09,039
talking about, and I know that we're just immune to

568
00:29:09,279 --> 00:29:11,440
just Vegas being able to throw whoever they want out

569
00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:13,519
there and be good. At some point that's not going

570
00:29:13,559 --> 00:29:16,160
to happen anymore. And I think that they have gotten

571
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:20,119
significantly worse in the past year with losing some of

572
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:23,440
their key players like march Usso being gone. And I

573
00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:25,440
know that they brought in Hannafin and know they have

574
00:29:25,559 --> 00:29:28,960
some different goalie options, but I just don't know that

575
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:31,960
they're as good as that they once were. And I'm

576
00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:34,599
a little worried that's going to affect his point pace.

577
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:37,519
He had a career high by far seventy three point

578
00:29:37,559 --> 00:29:41,240
pace was a twelve point pace higher than he ever has.

579
00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:43,400
And I still think that Shay Theatre is going to

580
00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:44,920
be good, but I don't know that he's going to

581
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:47,440
be career high. I think this might have been his

582
00:29:47,519 --> 00:29:50,720
apex and he might come down a little bit. So

583
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:53,720
that's my concern with Theodore. I still would want him.

584
00:29:53,799 --> 00:29:57,000
And the other reason is there's there he has Alex

585
00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:59,640
Petangelo problem. But Petrangelo is a good all around d

586
00:29:59,759 --> 00:30:04,079
that sometimes eats into his opportunity, So that's another concern

587
00:30:04,119 --> 00:30:04,319
for me.

588
00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:08,680
Speaker 2: Jesse, Yeah, completely fair. I talked about on the Catchup

589
00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:12,480
and Mustard show for the Western Conference. I wanted to

590
00:30:12,519 --> 00:30:15,279
pump up Theodore. More to the point, I wanted to

591
00:30:15,319 --> 00:30:18,640
pump down Noah Hannafin on a hot take of some sort.

592
00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:21,799
But Hannafin's stats are honestly just better than his new

593
00:30:21,839 --> 00:30:25,359
teammates in terms of what I think he's going to

594
00:30:25,359 --> 00:30:29,000
accomplish there. E P. Ringside actually ranks three Vegas defensemen

595
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:32,440
within their top fifty. Shae Theodore comes out as their highest,

596
00:30:32,599 --> 00:30:35,680
which is surprising to me and I think is probably

597
00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:38,839
a mistake. I agree with you about being careful per

598
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:42,720
rating last year's accomplishments, and the peripher floor is just

599
00:30:42,799 --> 00:30:46,079
never great for Shape Theodore, So there is plenty of

600
00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:50,559
reason to worry about Shape Theodore being one of your

601
00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:55,519
top defensemen on your club. Next up, Victor, we're going

602
00:30:55,559 --> 00:30:58,839
to go to Carolina and talk about Sane Gostisper what

603
00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:00,000
makes him one of your picks.

604
00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:02,599
Speaker 3: So there are a few things to be concerned about

605
00:31:02,599 --> 00:31:06,440
with Shane gostis Bear. He did have the best statistical

606
00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:09,039
season he's had since twenty seventeen eighteen when he was

607
00:31:09,079 --> 00:31:12,200
in Philly. That was his peak season with a sixty

608
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:15,480
seven point pace. So last season in Detroit is his

609
00:31:15,559 --> 00:31:19,079
first and only season so far there. He did have

610
00:31:19,279 --> 00:31:22,920
a ton of power play opportunity. He had twenty nine

611
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:25,440
power play points, which was again that high since the

612
00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:29,559
seventeen eighteen season. He made good on all that opportunity

613
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:32,319
and it was great, and he had a fifty seven

614
00:31:32,359 --> 00:31:35,400
point pace. He's going to a new team, and the

615
00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:41,160
Caroline Hurricanes they tend to not prioritize certain players like that.

616
00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:44,079
They tend to not give people tons of opportunity. Brent

617
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:46,640
Burns is the one who had the most power play

618
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:48,640
time by a wide margin. He's going to be forty,

619
00:31:48,839 --> 00:31:50,160
so that could be good, And a lot of people

620
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:52,920
are just assuming that Gostis Bear is going to step

621
00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:55,240
into that role, but I don't know if that's so certain,

622
00:31:55,799 --> 00:31:59,440
and he might share that they might tag team it

623
00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:02,359
and that would be obviously bad for gosta S Bear.

624
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:04,920
So I just think that his role is nowhere near

625
00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:06,960
as certain as it has been in the past. It

626
00:32:07,039 --> 00:32:09,880
was pretty clear that he had that role in Detroit,

627
00:32:10,559 --> 00:32:13,839
and his power play IPP was also really high, and

628
00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:15,559
so I don't know that it's going to be quite

629
00:32:15,559 --> 00:32:18,880
as high in Carolina. They don't have the finishers that

630
00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:23,240
Vegas does, so that I'm comparing that because of Shay

631
00:32:23,319 --> 00:32:27,240
Theodore's high powerplay IPP. So anyways, there's just a lot

632
00:32:27,279 --> 00:32:29,119
of reasons. I know in theory, you look at it

633
00:32:29,119 --> 00:32:31,279
and you say, Okay, he was great in Detroit.

634
00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:33,119
Speaker 4: He's going to Carolina.

635
00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:35,880
Speaker 3: They need someone to run that power play because Burns

636
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:37,759
is really slowing down. And I don't disagree with all

637
00:32:37,799 --> 00:32:40,119
of that, but some of these things aren't always so clear,

638
00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:45,039
and they could share that role, and they could play

639
00:32:45,039 --> 00:32:46,880
with his time on ice a little bit. He is

640
00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:50,039
not the best even strength defender, so there could be

641
00:32:50,119 --> 00:32:53,200
several reasons why he doesn't end up getting as much

642
00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:56,000
opportunity as we all think. So just would make me

643
00:32:56,079 --> 00:32:58,039
a little bit nervous. Jesse, I would be happy to

644
00:32:58,079 --> 00:33:00,599
have Shank gostas Bear as my third or fourth fenceman.

645
00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:04,160
I don't know that I want him much higher than that.

646
00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:08,079
And Cam has them projected for a thirty nine point base,

647
00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:10,359
which would be a huge drop off from what he

648
00:33:10,519 --> 00:33:12,559
previously had, and I think that's reasonable. I think there's

649
00:33:12,599 --> 00:33:14,599
going to be some struggle that. I don't think Rod

650
00:33:14,599 --> 00:33:17,119
Brnnemore is gonna much appreciate his even strength play.

651
00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:20,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that is a worry. I mean that the

652
00:33:20,839 --> 00:33:23,839
power play. It's hard to see the power play getting

653
00:33:23,839 --> 00:33:28,960
pried away except for the except for the possibility Brimper

654
00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:32,880
the other guys they have, they're just not power play types.

655
00:33:33,079 --> 00:33:36,400
I've spent years waiting for Demitri or Loft to break

656
00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:38,279
out on the power play and it's just never happened.

657
00:33:38,279 --> 00:33:42,119
And Jacob Slaven that's not his strong suit. And if

658
00:33:42,119 --> 00:33:45,440
he's D fifty four, like E. P. Ringside says, sandwich

659
00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:50,079
between Brady Shy and Damon Severson, Now I'd say that's

660
00:33:50,759 --> 00:33:55,200
fine in already accounting for some regression in terms of

661
00:33:55,240 --> 00:34:00,880
where their ranks fall. But overall, I do agree he

662
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:03,319
maybe picked more highly in some of your leagus, So

663
00:34:03,440 --> 00:34:08,239
you want to stay away from that. JT. Miller one

664
00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:13,039
of the elite Vancouver Canucks victor and yet a regression candidate.

665
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:19,000
Speaker 3: Yes, sir, Career high shooting percentage, career high PDO, career

666
00:34:19,079 --> 00:34:23,079
high powerplay ipp. Basically, you can look at his season

667
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:26,000
a few different ways, and there's no question it was

668
00:34:26,039 --> 00:34:28,880
his best statistical season, but there are also a few

669
00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:33,440
outliers in the luck metrics that indicate he might be

670
00:34:33,519 --> 00:34:35,800
cooking a little bit hot. And I think this is

671
00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:38,239
what you need to have your best statistical season. Ry.

672
00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:40,280
You need a few bounces to go your way and

673
00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:43,119
that's why. That's how you index for some players anyways,

674
00:34:43,199 --> 00:34:46,000
over one hundred point pace, and that's what he did,

675
00:34:46,039 --> 00:34:47,559
one hundred and four point pace. He had one hundred

676
00:34:47,559 --> 00:34:49,599
and one point pace a couple of years ago. And

677
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:53,079
it's interesting. I looked at his season this past season

678
00:34:53,320 --> 00:34:54,920
twenty three, twenty four, and I looked at twenty one

679
00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:56,760
to twenty two, and he went over one hundred point pace.

680
00:34:56,800 --> 00:34:58,920
And then I looked at the seasons in between where

681
00:34:58,920 --> 00:35:03,440
he didn't, and guess what he cooked hot? On the

682
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:05,719
seasons that he went over one hundred, his luck metrics

683
00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:09,079
were way over and they were under the other seasons.

684
00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:12,440
So that to me just seems pretty clearly like that's

685
00:35:12,480 --> 00:35:15,519
what happened. And that doesn't mean he can't do it again.

686
00:35:15,599 --> 00:35:18,440
He certainly could. He certainly could shoot closer to twenty

687
00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:23,000
percent again. He could have a career high power a pedo, which,

688
00:35:23,039 --> 00:35:25,360
if you're not familiar, is a combination of shooting percentage

689
00:35:25,360 --> 00:35:28,519
and save percentage. But that's a really high number. Ten

690
00:35:28,599 --> 00:35:31,800
fifty five is an insanely high pdo and what's very

691
00:35:31,920 --> 00:35:34,199
unlikely that is going to repeat. So many things would

692
00:35:34,239 --> 00:35:36,719
have to go right for that to happen. So I

693
00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:38,880
don't think that's going to happen. There's no question that

694
00:35:38,920 --> 00:35:43,400
Miller is a great player, and he's great in multi

695
00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:46,159
category leagues, and I think that he can be, you know,

696
00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:49,440
around ninety Again, that's I'm not saying that he's going

697
00:35:49,519 --> 00:35:53,239
to fall back completely. He might be closer to eighty

698
00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:56,679
to eighty five. That's where I think the safe zone is.

699
00:35:56,840 --> 00:35:59,519
Anything above that is gravy. But if you're drafting him

700
00:35:59,559 --> 00:36:01,239
as a hundred point player, then you might be a

701
00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:02,280
little bit disappointed.

702
00:36:03,719 --> 00:36:06,159
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I suspect some people are. I think he's

703
00:36:06,159 --> 00:36:09,440
getting to be in that top couple round conversation, and

704
00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:12,320
if that's the case, yeah, you definitely need to look

705
00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:16,039
at those luck metrics. He and Besser had that shooting

706
00:36:16,239 --> 00:36:19,119
spike when they're on the ice, pretty much like you're saying,

707
00:36:19,199 --> 00:36:22,800
and JT. Miller, like literally every human on the planet Earth,

708
00:36:23,320 --> 00:36:25,519
is not as young as he used to be, and

709
00:36:25,800 --> 00:36:29,719
that's relevant. I think this is a pretty direct reason

710
00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:33,400
for regression on this one. I agree with you Canucks fans.

711
00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:36,760
The plexiglass principle could be coming for you this year,

712
00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:40,000
and if it does, it's going to take JT. Miller

713
00:36:40,519 --> 00:36:47,000
down from insanity to mere incredulity in his points total

714
00:36:48,440 --> 00:36:51,639
and because Victor hates the Vancouver Canucks. Next he picks

715
00:36:51,679 --> 00:36:56,000
Philipperonic as a regression candidate. Victor, defend yourself.

716
00:36:56,599 --> 00:36:58,920
Speaker 3: He I don't know that there's much to defend. It

717
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:02,119
was pretty clear what happened with Thronik. He cooked really

718
00:37:02,159 --> 00:37:04,599
hot in the first half of the year. He had

719
00:37:05,239 --> 00:37:08,159
most people realized they picked him up early on, and

720
00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:10,480
he had nearly a point per game in the first

721
00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:13,920
half of the season twenty nine points in thirty two games,

722
00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:16,400
and then over the past forty nine games he was

723
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:19,440
under a half point per game, just nineteen.

724
00:37:21,079 --> 00:37:22,519
Speaker 4: So it was a tale of two seasons.

725
00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:25,480
Speaker 3: He if you look at the pdo for the first

726
00:37:25,559 --> 00:37:27,840
versus the second half, it was insanely high and then

727
00:37:27,880 --> 00:37:30,840
it was low. Overall, he finished at ten forty one,

728
00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:34,639
which is a really high number for a defenseman in particular,

729
00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:38,199
So there there were definite reasons to see that he

730
00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:41,719
was probably not going to continue that. Overall, his points

731
00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:44,000
participation was relatively even.

732
00:37:44,440 --> 00:37:46,360
Speaker 4: And so that part is good.

733
00:37:46,440 --> 00:37:49,960
Speaker 3: And there's still a high floor here in the sense

734
00:37:49,960 --> 00:37:51,719
that he's going to play with Quinn Hughes and he's

735
00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:56,079
gonna get points and maybe in bunches when he it

736
00:37:56,119 --> 00:37:58,599
plays with Quinn. I don't think that's going to change,

737
00:37:58,679 --> 00:38:01,440
and I think that he's still has a high floor

738
00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:03,519
to be a forty point guy. It's just if you're

739
00:38:03,559 --> 00:38:06,280
thinking that he's going to be what he was in

740
00:38:06,320 --> 00:38:08,119
the first half of that season, where he was like

741
00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:12,000
seventy point guy, I don't think that's so realistic. And

742
00:38:12,039 --> 00:38:13,880
he did have a forty nine point pace, so if

743
00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:15,440
he averaged that out, but it was more like a

744
00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:18,320
thirty and a seventy point pace, put that in the

745
00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:20,320
middle and you get fifty, but it wasn't really a

746
00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:23,480
fifty point pace. I think he's more realistically closer to

747
00:38:23,559 --> 00:38:28,000
forty thirty to forty. That's who he's been, and he

748
00:38:28,119 --> 00:38:31,320
has had a decent number of power Play points and

749
00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:34,199
so if that can continue from the second power Play

750
00:38:34,480 --> 00:38:37,239
and using him more as a shooter, then possibly. But

751
00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:40,480
I just think you're going to get You should be

752
00:38:40,519 --> 00:38:42,639
expecting more of a forty point pace from Frontic, and

753
00:38:42,639 --> 00:38:44,360
if you get more than you should be happy about it.

754
00:38:44,400 --> 00:38:46,679
But you certainly shouldn't be drafting him as a fifty

755
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:47,960
or more point guy or anything.

756
00:38:48,079 --> 00:38:52,320
Speaker 2: Jesse, Yeah, He definitely had good offense last year, more

757
00:38:52,360 --> 00:38:56,039
than I'd expected. He had that nice breakout in Detroit,

758
00:38:56,039 --> 00:38:58,719
he got traded, he pretty much was out shortly after

759
00:38:58,800 --> 00:39:03,000
he was traded, and then last year he definitely is

760
00:39:03,039 --> 00:39:07,039
not contributing greatly at the defensive end for the Canucks,

761
00:39:07,199 --> 00:39:09,079
so they're going to have to use him in offensive

762
00:39:09,079 --> 00:39:11,480
situations where he's going to be competing with Quinn Hughes.

763
00:39:12,559 --> 00:39:15,039
Almost everything gets more exciting with Ronic on the ice.

764
00:39:15,079 --> 00:39:18,000
I don't know if you remember those evolving hockey charts

765
00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:22,960
where it says fun at one corner. That's the corner

766
00:39:23,039 --> 00:39:26,559
that Heronic drags everything to fund more shots for, more

767
00:39:26,599 --> 00:39:29,400
shots against. And of course we talked about the Canuck

768
00:39:29,480 --> 00:39:33,159
general fears that said, if you wanted any optimism for

769
00:39:33,639 --> 00:39:37,719
his point total being higher, remember what Patrick Johnston told

770
00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:39,840
us on the team preview for the Canucks. He was

771
00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:44,039
badly hampered by an elbow injury mid last year and

772
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:48,239
that kind of hobbled him. And if that truly is

773
00:39:48,280 --> 00:39:51,400
what threw him off at that early pace, he may

774
00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:54,039
not be as steep of a fall as we feared.

775
00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:57,039
At D thirty seven, where ep ringside has him, I

776
00:39:57,079 --> 00:40:00,000
think I could buy on him, but let's not gow

777
00:40:00,519 --> 00:40:04,400
Pronic is not going to be a star defenseman by

778
00:40:04,440 --> 00:40:08,519
any means. Victor, I think we've been through some regressions,

779
00:40:08,559 --> 00:40:12,440
We've been through some bashers. Any general thoughts on regressions

780
00:40:12,440 --> 00:40:13,159
for this season.

781
00:40:14,199 --> 00:40:17,960
Speaker 3: I obviously did everyone's did some homework for you, but

782
00:40:18,079 --> 00:40:20,039
I would encourage people that you could do this kind

783
00:40:20,079 --> 00:40:22,280
of stuff yourself. I think it's really helpful to look

784
00:40:22,320 --> 00:40:24,840
at this. You don't have to be an expert at it,

785
00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:27,239
but I think getting used to looking at these numbers

786
00:40:27,679 --> 00:40:29,639
when I first started playing, the first thing that I

787
00:40:29,639 --> 00:40:31,840
would always do, like a lot of people, is get

788
00:40:31,880 --> 00:40:34,280
excited when guys are cooking hot. Now what I do

789
00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:36,519
when I'm cooking hot is I look into their numbers

790
00:40:36,559 --> 00:40:38,559
and think about how long is this going to last?

791
00:40:38,719 --> 00:40:39,440
Speaker 4: What is an.

792
00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:42,159
Speaker 3: Outlier, what is their career average, what is the average

793
00:40:42,199 --> 00:40:44,800
for that position, that number in the league, and start

794
00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:47,400
really thinking about maybe you want to sell this player,

795
00:40:47,519 --> 00:40:49,639
Maybe you need to think about how long this is

796
00:40:49,639 --> 00:40:51,960
going to continue, because it's not just going to keep

797
00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:54,920
going forever. So just to be more aware of some

798
00:40:54,960 --> 00:40:57,440
of these numbers, hopefully that's that's part of it as well.

799
00:40:59,400 --> 00:41:02,719
Speaker 2: Yes, sir, indeed, Victor will be right back after this

800
00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:20,920
to close off the show. Yes, sir, back to talk

801
00:41:20,960 --> 00:41:22,639
about a couple of things before we get out of

802
00:41:22,639 --> 00:41:24,880
here today. One of them is our show's brought to

803
00:41:24,880 --> 00:41:27,880
you byfantracks dot com. You can move leagues over there.

804
00:41:27,920 --> 00:41:30,760
There's still time to set them up. Why not do

805
00:41:30,800 --> 00:41:34,880
it today? Or ten different total sports to play, most

806
00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:39,800
options for scoring, salaries, contracts, rookie eligibility, different settings, there,

807
00:41:40,239 --> 00:41:43,440
different types of stuff. It is all kinds of stuff,

808
00:41:43,440 --> 00:41:46,280
and I would recommend very much if you need to

809
00:41:46,280 --> 00:41:48,719
start another leak to get in there. Fantracks HQ has

810
00:41:48,760 --> 00:41:52,559
got fantasy content. There's position ranks going up, there's all

811
00:41:52,639 --> 00:41:57,280
kinds of fantasy hockey preseason content and content on other

812
00:41:57,360 --> 00:42:02,880
fantasy sports. FHL is a team, our Fahl crew deserves

813
00:42:02,880 --> 00:42:05,119
a shout out right now. And one of them is

814
00:42:05,320 --> 00:42:08,880
the Tidy Leagues. The commission team there has been doing

815
00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:11,920
yeomen's work getting us ready for the season. That's Craftzer,

816
00:42:12,559 --> 00:42:17,239
Ryan Simone and Tim. Ryan also helps a bit with

817
00:42:17,320 --> 00:42:20,400
the show prep, so we thank him for that. Jeremy

818
00:42:20,519 --> 00:42:24,039
V and Tony are our lead scouts as we get

819
00:42:24,039 --> 00:42:28,400
scouting reports all year round. Brandon is our website guru.

820
00:42:28,559 --> 00:42:30,840
He's a scout and he helps with the prospect ranks

821
00:42:30,840 --> 00:42:35,360
and visualizations. If you want to help Victor to get

822
00:42:35,400 --> 00:42:37,760
some more cool things going for I hit him up

823
00:42:37,760 --> 00:42:40,679
in the discord email or on X. Also brought to

824
00:42:40,719 --> 00:42:43,840
you by Dabber Hockey Dabber Prospects. Victor is an editor there.

825
00:42:43,920 --> 00:42:47,039
Follow us work there as well as his other podcast,

826
00:42:47,079 --> 00:42:50,760
Dobber Prospect Report with Peter Harling. You can check out

827
00:42:50,800 --> 00:42:54,159
Victor's articles at hep Ringside. He's part of the fantasy team.

828
00:42:54,199 --> 00:42:58,559
As you heard, Reference Today with Cam Robinson and Mike

829
00:42:58,679 --> 00:43:02,840
Clifford do a solo show, Dynasty Sports Life. I think

830
00:43:02,880 --> 00:43:05,800
I also Reference that today where I talk four different

831
00:43:05,880 --> 00:43:09,599
Dynasty sports sometimes overlapping as I've been doing in these

832
00:43:09,719 --> 00:43:13,360
City Blender editions. Follow us on X at Fan Hockey

833
00:43:13,440 --> 00:43:16,599
Life at Victor Nunno twelve, and rate and review us

834
00:43:16,639 --> 00:43:19,920
on Apple Podcasts, Spotify wherever else you get pods. Thank

835
00:43:19,960 --> 00:43:23,760
you for listening. Once again, you are so close to

836
00:43:24,360 --> 00:43:28,880
real line up setting. I hope you enjoy this fantasy

837
00:43:29,039 --> 00:43:35,639
hockey life