Speaker 1: Hey, twenty nine here fifty five KRSE detalk station. It
Speaker 1: is that alliterative segment of the fifty five KRSE Morning Show.
Speaker 1: Can't take credit for the name. It is Daniel Davis
Speaker 1: Deep Dive. You can search form online the podcast Daniel
Speaker 1: Davis Deep Dive. Good to have you back on this show.
Speaker 1: Daniel retired Lieutenant colonel and analyst of things conflicts mostly related.
Speaker 1: Lately we're gonna talk about the Middle East, shocking no one.
Speaker 1: Good to see you. Good to have you back on
Speaker 1: the show, My friend always great to be here. I'm
Speaker 1: actually looking forward to this as much as my own show. Now.
Speaker 1: I'm glad. I really have fun talking with you, and
Speaker 1: you know, you offer a very it's a unique insight.
Speaker 1: I think that's where the value comes from. You just
Speaker 1: have a different way of looking things, and of course,
Speaker 1: you know the horrors and the fog of war. Difficult
Speaker 1: to come up with solutions, but it always helps when
Speaker 1: you have some sort of strategy or a plan if
Speaker 1: you're getting into a conflict, which I don't know that
Speaker 1: we have here going to Ukraine, and you know, I
Speaker 1: just can I before we talk about the Ukrainian president
Speaker 1: offering this sort of piece, the piece through strength, solution
Speaker 1: and real quick. I just wanted to get your reaction
Speaker 1: on what I thought. My immediate reaction was to laugh.
Speaker 1: But the genius of being able to plant bombs inside
Speaker 1: pagers and walkie talkies that the Hesbala people had, I
Speaker 1: mean they the Hesbala guys are the ones that got
Speaker 1: blown up, is it not. I mean a master work
Speaker 1: of intelligence community to get those things in the hands
Speaker 1: of those guys and simultaneously blow them up, which I thought,
Speaker 1: knocking them back on their heels, which would open an
Speaker 1: opportunity for Israel to yes, go in militarily and go
Speaker 1: after the terrorists in Lebanon, which apparently has happened.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's in terms of just state craft and of
Speaker 2: the intelligence ability to do that, it's it's truly an
Speaker 2: unprecedented event. Yeah, it's never been done to that extent
Speaker 2: because there was so much complexity and so much time
Speaker 2: necessary to set up shell companies and to make the
Speaker 2: recipients think that it was a trust agent and all
Speaker 2: that kind of stuff. There are some issues around the
Speaker 2: edge because it was not very discriminated. Some you know,
Speaker 2: children were killed who happened to have the pagers, so
Speaker 2: you know, it's not a clean operation, but it's it
Speaker 2: definitely operationally significantly damaged his blows ability to communicate. And if,
Speaker 2: as I suspect is the case, Israel's getting ready to
Speaker 2: go in on the ground and push back. They've signaled
Speaker 2: everything to that degree, this will significantly complicate his Bill's
Speaker 2: ability to coordinate a reaction on the ground.
Speaker 1: And you can't deny the psychological benefit it had to
Speaker 1: have had. I mean, can you imagine that Hisbolla commanders
Speaker 1: when that happened, and what their reaction might have been.
Speaker 1: So score one for the psyops I suppose to, but
Speaker 1: I just I couldn't believe my eyes when I was
Speaker 1: reading what I was reading about what happened. Both, let's
Speaker 1: move away from Israel and Lebanon and Gaza and get
Speaker 1: over to Ukraine, where President valk Zelensky, I guess has
Speaker 1: presented some sort of East proposal to Biden. I'm calling
Speaker 1: it peace through strength, because that's what he's saying, strengthening
Speaker 1: us and we can negotiate some peace. What's your take
Speaker 1: on this one, Daniel, What are the details of this
Speaker 1: proposal of the extent we've eate anybody knows him yet?
Speaker 2: Listen. It's bizarre, is the only word that I can
Speaker 2: come up with, because everywhere you look, and I'm talking
Speaker 2: about in the last twenty four hours, actually the last
Speaker 2: twelve hours, there are continuing extensive losses by the Ukraine side,
Speaker 2: especially on the Eastern Front. They have taken one small
Speaker 2: village in the course carry up in the north, but
Speaker 2: then they are continuing to lose more ground kind of
Speaker 2: in the neck of that penetration ip up into Russia,
Speaker 2: which now puts their whole battle force at risk of
Speaker 2: being cut off if they don't withdraw pretty soon. And
Speaker 2: so when he comes in now and says, and he
Speaker 2: was asked specifically on ABC News last night, does your
Speaker 2: plans envision negotiation, because that's kind of what he has implied,
Speaker 2: And he said, no, does it imply in negoti we
Speaker 2: just want to, through diplomatic means, make Putin think that
Speaker 2: he can't win, so that he gives us what we want.
Speaker 2: And I'm sorry, that's not how war works, that's not
Speaker 2: how human nature works. When you're on the commanding side
Speaker 2: and you have all of the advantages and your side
Speaker 2: is physically winning on the battlefield, you're not going to
Speaker 2: negotiate a bad position, and so I don't really understand
Speaker 2: what he's thinking. The only thing that I'll say is
Speaker 2: that maybe he's gonna ask Biden to say, hey, put
Speaker 2: us in NATO, give us more long range weapons, so
Speaker 2: that'll change the actual calculation.
Speaker 1: But that is never going to happen now. And we
Speaker 1: are talking about Vladimir Putin here, right. I mean, he's
Speaker 1: got an ego the size of the continent. I mean,
Speaker 1: he is not going to back off on something like that.
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know the guy personally, but I
Speaker 1: have observed his behavior and his conduct over the years.
Speaker 1: If he's not happy about something, somebody dies or he
Speaker 1: gets his way, and he is not going to to
Speaker 1: put his tail between his legs. That's my analysis of
Speaker 1: the guy. No psychologists, and I don't play one on radio.
Speaker 1: But going back to the long range missiles I heard
Speaker 1: the other day, and I'm sorry I camera call the
Speaker 1: source of my apologies, but I'll just gauge your reaction
Speaker 1: on this because it sounds logical coming from Vladimir Putin.
Speaker 1: He told us, do not sell those long range missiles
Speaker 1: to Ukraine, and do not let them hit in the
Speaker 1: interior of our country, or you my friend, United States
Speaker 1: have started World War three in essence, they have nuclear
Speaker 1: capabilities and they will be willing to use them. Any
Speaker 1: truth to that is that anything you heard this minus
Speaker 1: thinking this was kind of like back channel communications, Yeah, yeah.
Speaker 2: There have been I actually have heard some sources who
Speaker 2: claim to have knowledge of about some of those back channels,
Speaker 2: And the claim is that Russia's was very very emphatic
Speaker 2: about what they would be willing to do. They certainly
Speaker 2: wouldn't go to nuclear weapons immediately, like if we authorize
Speaker 2: long range missiles and they were used. And the reason,
Speaker 2: by the way that he says this is because those
Speaker 2: missiles are so sophisticated, both in their operation and in
Speaker 2: the targeting mechanism that requires satellite guidance and satellite target identification,
Speaker 2: which Ukraine doesn't have. So if it will only be
Speaker 2: at our direct engagement, which many people in the ways
Speaker 2: have admitted to ironically, But the bigger issue is that
Speaker 2: the missiles are not going to change the course of
Speaker 2: the war, even if it didn't escalate, it's not going
Speaker 2: to change anything because there's not enough of them.
Speaker 1: We don't even have enough, as our.
Speaker 2: Secretary of Defense openly admitted, We don't have enough. But
Speaker 2: what Russia has claimed is that if that happens, even
Speaker 2: on the tactical you know, in conventional format with missiles,
Speaker 2: then they will respond in kind. And we don't know
Speaker 2: for sure what they mean, but so I think that
Speaker 2: they would possibly strike like AMO depots in Natal countries
Speaker 2: if that happens, And of course, now then you've got
Speaker 2: Article five implications. And then I think that's the other
Speaker 2: reason why they didn't mention the nuclear capacity, because if
Speaker 2: NATO things are going to end the war, then you Russia,
Speaker 2: in their view, will have no choice because they can't
Speaker 2: handle conventionally NATO. Then they would use, They're willing to
Speaker 2: use tactical nuclear weapons, and man, I'm saying, why even
Speaker 2: toy with that possibility when there's nothing to gain even conventionally.
Speaker 1: Don't do it. Yeah, I share your concerns along those lines,
Speaker 1: but a pivoting over the broader concerns you just pointed out,
Speaker 1: we don't even have enough of these missiles, and I'm
Speaker 1: thinking along the lines for our own protection benefit or
Speaker 1: any conflicts we might be involved with. Something I hear
Speaker 1: and read repeatedly over and over again. It was back
Speaker 1: when we were talking about one hundred and fifty five
Speaker 1: millimeters shells. We're running out of those. Well, it's only
Speaker 1: old equipment and we aren't got to yet. Fine, whatever,
Speaker 1: we're trying to build up Japan's army, we're trying to
Speaker 1: build up Israel, supplying them with weapons. We're supplying Ukraine
Speaker 1: with weapons. What about are the exhaustion of our own
Speaker 1: defense capabilities, our own ability defend ourselves or wage war?
Speaker 1: That is a serious concern, isn't it. It's an even
Speaker 1: bigger than that. To me.
Speaker 2: You had Jake Sullivan about a week or so ago
Speaker 2: in a public forum admit that we had to get
Speaker 2: all the interceptor missiles we had offered everywhere else in
Speaker 2: the world, everywhere else, to give them all to Ukraine. Now,
Speaker 2: you mentioned at the early part of this show here
Speaker 2: the era Israel war. If they go in on the
Speaker 2: ground against Hezbolah, they have hundreds of thousands of rockets
Speaker 2: and weapons, they will need even more interceptor missiles than
Speaker 2: we have. So if we are already exhaust given them
Speaker 2: to Ukraine, and then now here Israe's about to need
Speaker 2: even more? Where are they coming from? And then God
Speaker 2: help us if we get into a warning where which
Speaker 2: is what we're supposed to have our military for to
Speaker 2: defend our interests if we then get into a war, Brian,
Speaker 2: we don't have any interceptors, and that makes us strategically vulnerable.
Speaker 1: It's a bad move. Well, and knowing that Chinese are involved,
Speaker 1: the Iranians are involved, and the Russians are all involved
Speaker 1: in these multiple conflicts, they're all helping each other, supporting
Speaker 1: each other with supplies of weapons. It makes me want
Speaker 1: to suspect, given the demands of our US military manufacturing capabilities,
Speaker 1: that part of them is really engaged in a battle
Speaker 1: of attrition to see us use up all of our
Speaker 1: military hardware, giving them an opportunity to do all I
Speaker 1: don't know, maybe invade Taiwan, or maybe invade some other
Speaker 1: country or who knows.
Speaker 2: But we're in jeopardy. We don't even end this strategic
Speaker 2: and we're sucking ourselves into that track. Yes, they may
Speaker 2: have that intention, but only because we're enabling it. That's
Speaker 2: the maddening part to me, is that we're facilitating ourselves
Speaker 2: getting sucked into a trap.
Speaker 1: Daniel Davis always refreshing and enlightening conversation, maybe not always uplifting,
Speaker 1: but gotta call it like it is. Man, gotta call
Speaker 1: like it is Next Tuesday. We're trying to avoid the
Speaker 1: worst outcome. I know you are, and I'm with you
Speaker 1: on that. I had enough award. Tune in next Tuesday
Speaker 1: for another Daniel Davis deep dive. In the meantime, search
Speaker 1: for them online. You'll find them. Take care of my friend.
Speaker 1: Best of health you next time. All right, brother, coming
Speaker 1: up at eight forty. If you have KCD talk station
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