1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:03,680 Speaker 1: Happy Saint Patrick's Day here on bet on It. March 2 00:00:03,720 --> 00:00:07,080 madness is upon us less than twenty four hours. I'm 3 00:00:07,080 --> 00:00:10,160 gonna be at the Westgates super Book drinking copious amounts 4 00:00:10,160 --> 00:00:13,119 of green drinks called margaritas, and we're gonna be cheering 5 00:00:13,240 --> 00:00:16,920 our proverbial faces off. We've got a huge show for 6 00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:20,120 you guys today. We're gonna break down those primetime games, 7 00:00:20,120 --> 00:00:22,199 well at least the ones that we think are primetime 8 00:00:22,199 --> 00:00:24,079 that you need to know about. VR is gonna come 9 00:00:24,079 --> 00:00:27,640 in hot with that steam report which dogs are gonna win? 10 00:00:27,679 --> 00:00:28,079 Speaker 2: Outright? 11 00:00:28,359 --> 00:00:31,519 Speaker 1: We've got three double digit ones for you guys this week. 12 00:00:32,000 --> 00:00:35,000 While the Deli may be only on the wager Talk 13 00:00:35,119 --> 00:00:38,479 YouTube channel. For Marco, he's got a trap game for 14 00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:40,320 us here on bet on It. And of course we're 15 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:58,200 gonna wrap it all up with some best bets, all right, 16 00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:02,520 Kelly Stewart, Marco D'Angelo, the Greek, I haven't seen you guys, 17 00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:03,240 Well that's not true. 18 00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:04,560 Speaker 2: Of course I've seen you guys. 19 00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:05,719 Speaker 1: But I've seen you guys here on bet on It 20 00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:10,680 since the Super Bowl show. Now the madness is here, 21 00:01:10,719 --> 00:01:13,120 and there was a lot to dissect. We did a 22 00:01:13,519 --> 00:01:15,680 selection Sunday show. If you guys missed it over on 23 00:01:15,719 --> 00:01:18,599 the Wager Talking YouTube channel, definitely go. 24 00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:20,680 Speaker 2: Check that outre I'm gonna let you go. 25 00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:25,040 Speaker 1: First eleven seed VCU number six North Carolina. 26 00:01:25,359 --> 00:01:28,200 Speaker 2: Talk to me about this matchup. 27 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:30,840 Speaker 1: I don't like that you're gonna be on the other side, 28 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:32,799 and I'm gonna say it's because maybe I spent a 29 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:35,680 little bit too much money in my Calcutta on Virginian 30 00:01:35,760 --> 00:01:37,280 Commonwealth University. 31 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:41,359 Speaker 3: I'm going to keep it simple and the viewers that 32 00:01:41,439 --> 00:01:45,159 follow from bed on it. The college football NFL definitely 33 00:01:45,159 --> 00:01:47,640 know what I'm talking about. I follow my power ratings. 34 00:01:48,079 --> 00:01:52,680 They produced number one in profit for college football NFL, 35 00:01:53,079 --> 00:01:56,359 and I was number one in college basketball going into Saturday. 36 00:01:56,640 --> 00:01:59,040 I got buried this last week, got that out of 37 00:01:59,040 --> 00:02:01,159 our system before the dance, which is a good thing. 38 00:02:01,359 --> 00:02:04,120 But setting at number two up over seventy units, so 39 00:02:04,239 --> 00:02:10,080 obviously the production reflects that power ratings do work. And 40 00:02:10,199 --> 00:02:14,919 what I simply do is I provide accounts for groups 41 00:02:15,319 --> 00:02:19,159 that do extremely well move markets, win long term, and 42 00:02:19,199 --> 00:02:21,560 when they come in on a side that I've already 43 00:02:21,639 --> 00:02:26,840 power rated to have value, then I know to put 44 00:02:26,840 --> 00:02:29,520 a little bit more on top and use that as 45 00:02:29,520 --> 00:02:32,560 a premium. Now, I haven't gotten to the window yet 46 00:02:32,599 --> 00:02:35,759 with North Carolina because I'm thinking I may even get 47 00:02:35,840 --> 00:02:38,080 a better number if I wait. I do think the 48 00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:40,520 betting public is going to be on VCU. And when 49 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:43,800 we're talking March Madness, it's comparable to the Super Bowl. 50 00:02:43,879 --> 00:02:47,199 Thursday and Friday of March Madness especially is comparable to 51 00:02:47,199 --> 00:02:48,960 the Super Bowl. And what I mean by that is 52 00:02:49,159 --> 00:02:52,520 there's so much public money being bet that the sharp 53 00:02:52,560 --> 00:02:55,360 money's being overlooked. Now early in the week, they got 54 00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:57,280 to pay attention to it because the only betters that 55 00:02:57,280 --> 00:03:00,560 are really locking up money five days in advance are 56 00:03:00,919 --> 00:03:04,599 sharp betters, aren't the betting syndicates. So when that's the case, 57 00:03:04,759 --> 00:03:07,840 the market's going to reflect that side. But the biggest 58 00:03:07,879 --> 00:03:12,360 bets form these groups aren't coming in until late Wednesday, 59 00:03:12,719 --> 00:03:16,759 early Thursday, early Friday. That's when the limits are biggest. 60 00:03:17,120 --> 00:03:20,759 That's when the public's knocked somebody's lines out of whack 61 00:03:20,879 --> 00:03:24,199 and added even more value to their side, and they're 62 00:03:24,240 --> 00:03:28,360 able to throw that bet in and not produce problems 63 00:03:28,400 --> 00:03:30,759 for the books because they'll have more than enough tickets 64 00:03:30,759 --> 00:03:33,639 written on the other side. And it's just a beautiful 65 00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:37,280 couple of weeks of opportunities to make money if you're 66 00:03:37,360 --> 00:03:40,719 selective and you pick your spots. With that said, here's 67 00:03:40,719 --> 00:03:45,039 why I like North Carolina. Now they're rated. They're ranked 68 00:03:45,120 --> 00:03:47,840 twenty first in the AP pole. Coaches Poe call it 69 00:03:47,879 --> 00:03:50,000 what you will. I have them as the twenty third 70 00:03:50,080 --> 00:03:53,879 best team in the country. So we're very close as 71 00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:57,560 far as our ratings go. Where the disagreement is in 72 00:03:57,680 --> 00:04:01,599 the VCU side. This is a fight on VCU more 73 00:04:01,639 --> 00:04:04,120 than the bet on North Carolina. Here's what I mean. 74 00:04:04,639 --> 00:04:09,800 VCU is twenty seven and seven overall. All right, they've 75 00:04:09,879 --> 00:04:13,199 had the one hundred and third toughest strength of schedule, 76 00:04:13,280 --> 00:04:18,439 so one hundred and two teams had a tougher schedule 77 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:23,199 than they did. And yet offensively they're not in the 78 00:04:23,240 --> 00:04:27,160 top sixty. Defensively, they're not in the top sixty. They're 79 00:04:27,240 --> 00:04:31,639 exactly their sixtieth defensively, sixty fourth offensively in efficiency, and 80 00:04:31,759 --> 00:04:35,480 that's against the one hundredth and third toughest schedule. Now 81 00:04:35,519 --> 00:04:38,879 you're facing the North Carolina team which had the fiftieth 82 00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:42,160 toughest schedule, again not the toughest, but a lot tougher 83 00:04:42,199 --> 00:04:45,959 than VCU, and they produced an offense that's top twenty five. 84 00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:48,680 They produced a defense that's in the top forty. So 85 00:04:49,600 --> 00:04:52,279 with a tougher strength of schedule, I have the better offense. 86 00:04:52,639 --> 00:04:55,759 I have the better defense going in, so both sides 87 00:04:55,800 --> 00:04:58,759 of the ball, I have the better team, and they've 88 00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:01,800 done so. They're data at least against a better schedule, 89 00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:05,439 and they've even outperformed the betting market going nineteen and 90 00:05:05,519 --> 00:05:08,519 thirteen compared to the VCU, who is five hundred ats. 91 00:05:09,399 --> 00:05:12,399 I think this is an auto bet on North Carolina 92 00:05:12,560 --> 00:05:15,560 at anything less than minus three or better. I think 93 00:05:15,600 --> 00:05:18,519 it's the right side a money line it one fifty 94 00:05:18,639 --> 00:05:20,879 or better. I also think it's a good pet six 95 00:05:20,959 --> 00:05:23,319 out of ten times easily plus TV. I think they 96 00:05:23,399 --> 00:05:28,680 win this game again. I like North Carolina. Haven't made 97 00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:31,319 it a premium play yet, but power rating wise, it 98 00:05:31,439 --> 00:05:34,959 lines up offensively and defensively the way they match up 99 00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:38,439 at least who has the edge statistically, so it all 100 00:05:38,480 --> 00:05:42,680 points to UNC for more. Lay the points, Lay the points. 101 00:05:43,120 --> 00:05:45,800 Speaker 1: Ugh, if my Calcutta team hears that, they're going to 102 00:05:45,839 --> 00:05:48,160 be very mad at me, that's okay. 103 00:05:48,360 --> 00:05:49,639 Speaker 2: We've got some other ones. 104 00:05:49,759 --> 00:05:51,920 Speaker 3: That I've been wrong. I've been wrong before, Kay I've 105 00:05:51,920 --> 00:05:53,240 been wrong a lot. Don't worry about that. 106 00:05:53,519 --> 00:05:53,839 Speaker 4: All right. 107 00:05:53,920 --> 00:05:57,240 Speaker 1: Number nine Saint Louis another team that we drafted yesterday 108 00:05:57,319 --> 00:06:00,720 versus number eight Georgia. Take me home, Marco, tell me, 109 00:06:01,519 --> 00:06:03,600 tell me that Saint Louis is going to win this 110 00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:04,399 basketball game. 111 00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:07,399 Speaker 5: Well, Kelly, when you look at this one, the first 112 00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:10,920 glance is gonna be you see an Atlantic ten school 113 00:06:11,000 --> 00:06:16,000 playing an SEC powerhouse conference team and the lines just 114 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:20,120 two and a half. Isn't that basically picked the money? 115 00:06:20,240 --> 00:06:23,519 And the knee jerk reaction is We're gonna grab Georgia 116 00:06:24,079 --> 00:06:25,519 from the big name conference. 117 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:29,160 Speaker 4: It's, you know, just too easy for me to go 118 00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:29,680 that way. 119 00:06:29,759 --> 00:06:32,199 Speaker 5: But if you look deeper at this Saint Louis team, 120 00:06:32,639 --> 00:06:35,439 they only got five losses all season, and I can 121 00:06:35,480 --> 00:06:38,439 make an excuse for them in all five of those losses. 122 00:06:39,439 --> 00:06:42,879 They first loss of the season was early in the season. 123 00:06:42,959 --> 00:06:45,600 It was in a Thanksgiving tournament, in the second of 124 00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:49,360 back to back games they lost by one point to Stanford. Okay, 125 00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:52,439 that was early in the season. They didn't suffer their 126 00:06:52,519 --> 00:06:56,360 second loss until February seventeen. That was a loss at 127 00:06:56,480 --> 00:06:59,519 Rhode Island. But it's got to be noted that that 128 00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:03,879 game came the game before they had a big TV 129 00:07:04,160 --> 00:07:08,120 game on a Friday night against second place Virginia Commonwealth. 130 00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:09,680 Speaker 4: That was a big game, a. 131 00:07:09,759 --> 00:07:13,360 Speaker 5: Friday night spotlight game on TV. They got caught looking 132 00:07:13,439 --> 00:07:16,839 ahead in my opinion. And when did their third loss 133 00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:21,959 come the game after the VCU showdown when they thumped 134 00:07:22,160 --> 00:07:26,040 VCU on TV, they were filling fat and sassy. Yeah, 135 00:07:26,120 --> 00:07:27,959 we can't have a bet on It show without me 136 00:07:28,079 --> 00:07:30,879 throwing out of fat and sassey there. So I'm looking 137 00:07:30,959 --> 00:07:33,160 at this team. They made it all the way to 138 00:07:33,879 --> 00:07:37,680 the semi finals. They lost by one point to Dayton 139 00:07:37,759 --> 00:07:39,879 in the semi finals, but if you look at the 140 00:07:39,959 --> 00:07:43,000 box score in that game for one point loss, there 141 00:07:43,160 --> 00:07:46,199 was one huge outlier in that game, and it was 142 00:07:46,279 --> 00:07:48,920 the difference in the game. Dayton went to the foul 143 00:07:49,000 --> 00:07:51,959 line twenty nine times where Saint Louis only went to 144 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:54,959 the line seventeen. That was the difference in the game 145 00:07:55,040 --> 00:07:57,639 and they still only lost by one. I think they 146 00:07:57,680 --> 00:08:01,000 can hang around. Yes, Georgia can put up points, but 147 00:08:01,279 --> 00:08:03,360 they also give up points. And I like this Saint 148 00:08:03,439 --> 00:08:07,199 Louis defense twenty seven and five straight up this for 149 00:08:07,319 --> 00:08:08,959 the year, And like I said, I can make an 150 00:08:09,000 --> 00:08:12,160 excuse for all five of their losses. I'm gonna go ahead, 151 00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:16,199 take the better defensive team getting points. You know that's 152 00:08:16,399 --> 00:08:17,000 a mantra. 153 00:08:17,199 --> 00:08:17,639 Speaker 3: I love. 154 00:08:17,920 --> 00:08:20,160 Speaker 5: We're gonna go ahead and take Saint Louis And can 155 00:08:20,199 --> 00:08:22,600 we even really call it an upset? Is just a 156 00:08:22,639 --> 00:08:24,920 two and a half point underdog. I'll go ahead and 157 00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:26,759 take Saint Louis here against Georgia. 158 00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:31,480 Speaker 1: All right, I'm also going to take a small underdog here. 159 00:08:31,959 --> 00:08:34,159 That's kind why I wanted to go over these primetime games. 160 00:08:34,200 --> 00:08:36,960 Some of these coin flip games, if you will, can 161 00:08:37,039 --> 00:08:39,159 be kind of really hard to dissect. So I'm gonna 162 00:08:39,200 --> 00:08:42,559 take ten seed Miszoo one and a half point underdog 163 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:44,600 versus seven seed Miami. 164 00:08:45,039 --> 00:08:46,960 Speaker 2: Did you guys watch the selection Sunday show. 165 00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:49,720 Speaker 1: If you did, then you knew we just absolutely dragged 166 00:08:49,960 --> 00:08:53,039 the ACC And that's because they really had a down 167 00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:56,879 year outside of the Duke Blue Devils. I'm not high 168 00:08:57,000 --> 00:09:00,440 on this Miami basketball program this year. I didn't really 169 00:09:00,440 --> 00:09:03,559 think there was a lot to love about them. Now 170 00:09:03,879 --> 00:09:06,000 I know, Marco just said some nice things about the SEC, 171 00:09:06,159 --> 00:09:09,159 and that's normally what I do, the opposite of I 172 00:09:09,159 --> 00:09:12,440 don't say nice things about them getting ten teams in, 173 00:09:12,759 --> 00:09:17,519 but this is a really solid Missouri team. They are 174 00:09:17,600 --> 00:09:23,360 the third tallest team in college basketball, and they also 175 00:09:23,519 --> 00:09:28,159 have an offensive effective field goal percentage in the top 176 00:09:28,639 --> 00:09:32,360 thirty in the country. I really think Maszoo as a 177 00:09:32,440 --> 00:09:34,600 ten seed was my biggest shock on Sunday. 178 00:09:34,639 --> 00:09:37,360 Speaker 2: We're sitting here watching it and I was like, a 179 00:09:37,559 --> 00:09:38,320 ten seed. 180 00:09:38,960 --> 00:09:40,360 Speaker 1: I knew we're going to see a lot of SEC 181 00:09:40,480 --> 00:09:43,639 teams get in, but that one was rather shocking to me, 182 00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:48,039 to say the least. Now, again, back to this Miami team, 183 00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:51,080 I don't think there's a lot to love about them 184 00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:53,840 as a whole. And I think the reality is is 185 00:09:53,919 --> 00:09:57,600 we're going to see people rush to the window and say, well, 186 00:09:57,600 --> 00:09:58,279 they're twenty. 187 00:09:58,080 --> 00:10:01,799 Speaker 2: Five and eight on the season. They play in the ACC, 188 00:10:02,159 --> 00:10:06,039 and so A plus B equals C and that's not 189 00:10:06,399 --> 00:10:09,480 a team that I just want to back here. This 190 00:10:09,679 --> 00:10:12,159 is a team that looked decent down. 191 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:15,200 Speaker 1: The stretch, covering five of their last seven games, but 192 00:10:15,360 --> 00:10:19,200 they had an early exit there in the ACC tournament, 193 00:10:19,399 --> 00:10:23,200 right they end up losing to Virginia in just awful 194 00:10:23,639 --> 00:10:27,600 fashion after beating Louisville again. This is a team that 195 00:10:27,840 --> 00:10:30,279 on paper looks good but they have a couple of 196 00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:34,399 red flags, one of the worst free throw shooting teams 197 00:10:34,440 --> 00:10:37,320 in the country, and those are not teams that I 198 00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:40,840 want to back here down the stretch in March. So 199 00:10:41,000 --> 00:10:43,799 give me the Missouri Tigers plus one and a half 200 00:10:43,960 --> 00:10:47,600 for my TV game here on bet on It VR. 201 00:10:47,759 --> 00:10:50,879 Steam report has been really great. I have a lot 202 00:10:50,919 --> 00:10:53,639 of friends who have subscribed to a VR. Explain everybody 203 00:10:53,759 --> 00:10:56,519 what they get from your steam sheet every single day 204 00:10:56,600 --> 00:10:58,480 over on wager Talk and kind of give them a 205 00:10:58,480 --> 00:10:59,720 snippet of what you're seeing so. 206 00:10:59,759 --> 00:11:01,240 Speaker 2: Far here in March. 207 00:11:02,039 --> 00:11:06,240 Speaker 3: Yes, I've made it a goal to lower my volume 208 00:11:06,799 --> 00:11:10,840 of premium plays to subscribers so that they're able to 209 00:11:11,759 --> 00:11:14,799 follow exactly what I'm doing a lot easier and their 210 00:11:14,840 --> 00:11:18,480 bank row could handle it. The swings a lot easier 211 00:11:18,759 --> 00:11:21,639 with lower volume. But I have access to so much 212 00:11:21,679 --> 00:11:24,519 information because I provide these accounts that I take a 213 00:11:24,600 --> 00:11:29,000 percentage job, and those are bets that I'm not placing 214 00:11:29,039 --> 00:11:32,159 them personally myself, but I have money on them. So 215 00:11:32,759 --> 00:11:35,600 I'm able to share that information by providing the steam 216 00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:38,440 sheet every day, and I put those plays on there 217 00:11:38,759 --> 00:11:42,320 that I didn't release as premium plays but that are 218 00:11:42,480 --> 00:11:45,320 being bet by these betting syndicates that I work with, 219 00:11:46,120 --> 00:11:49,639 and I have action on it, so obviously I wanted 220 00:11:49,720 --> 00:11:51,399 to win. It's not like I'm just sharing, Okay, this 221 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:53,399 was Steam, that was Steam that was steamed. No, these 222 00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:56,399 are bets that actually have money on That's what I'm 223 00:11:56,440 --> 00:11:59,000 putting in there. They're not opinions, they're not leans, they're 224 00:11:59,039 --> 00:12:02,159 not free picks. These are actually bets that we place. 225 00:12:02,879 --> 00:12:04,759 But again, I can only I'm only going to release 226 00:12:04,879 --> 00:12:08,879 so much as premium selection and as the strongest because 227 00:12:08,919 --> 00:12:11,440 if you've gotten the Steam sheet, then you see the 228 00:12:11,559 --> 00:12:14,759 volume that these guys bet, and if you've provided accounts 229 00:12:14,759 --> 00:12:17,240 and we partner it up, then you know that's exactly 230 00:12:17,320 --> 00:12:20,200 what it looks like, fifty sixty bets on some Saturdays. 231 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:24,159 And I share all of that, even stuff that I 232 00:12:24,279 --> 00:12:27,440 get from other movers who you know, move for groups 233 00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:29,679 that I don't have access to, because then I'm able 234 00:12:29,759 --> 00:12:34,000 to confirm their stuff and perfect example, the Steam sheets 235 00:12:34,080 --> 00:12:37,320 up today, it's for five dollars because it's Tuesday, and 236 00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:41,399 what's in there is college basketball moves for tonight, College Basketball, 237 00:12:41,480 --> 00:12:46,000 Steam for Thursday for Friday, NBA for tonight, HL for 238 00:12:46,159 --> 00:12:49,360 tonight I've put college baseball in there, I put NHL 239 00:12:49,440 --> 00:12:53,480 in there, I put soccer tennis, like all that goal 240 00:12:53,639 --> 00:12:56,120 that I get throughout the day, regardless of what it is. 241 00:12:56,679 --> 00:12:59,600 I put it in there for subscribers to have access to, 242 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:02,840 or anyone that buys the daily Steam sheet. So it's 243 00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:08,679 just a daily I don't even know what to call 244 00:13:08,720 --> 00:13:13,120 it package that provides a ton of actionable. 245 00:13:13,080 --> 00:13:16,240 Speaker 2: How much is it VR? So if somebody wants to nineteen. 246 00:13:15,919 --> 00:13:18,720 Speaker 3: Dollars and comes with a premium play, so I only 247 00:13:18,759 --> 00:13:20,320 put like a four percent in there, so it would 248 00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:22,679 have been twenty five bucks anyway, but we just give 249 00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:25,480 them the premium play and they get all that information. 250 00:13:25,720 --> 00:13:28,039 Speaker 1: Oh okay, so if you're already a premium subscriber, you're 251 00:13:28,039 --> 00:13:29,799 getting it anyway. I was thinking like I would call 252 00:13:29,840 --> 00:13:31,519 it maybe like a newsletter. 253 00:13:31,120 --> 00:13:33,639 Speaker 3: If you will, Yes, that's perfect. And if you're if 254 00:13:33,679 --> 00:13:38,759 you're like, if you're betting this tournament prior to Thursday, 255 00:13:38,840 --> 00:13:43,279 you're gonna want to know what groups are legit Like today, 256 00:13:43,360 --> 00:13:45,600 the sheet has a bunch of moves on there, like 257 00:13:45,919 --> 00:13:48,519 it's gold. If you're handicapping, it's gold. If you're handicapping 258 00:13:48,559 --> 00:13:50,480 your own stuff for sure, you say that on. 259 00:13:50,559 --> 00:13:51,679 Speaker 1: Last call, and I think that makes a lot of 260 00:13:51,720 --> 00:13:53,679 sense if you like to do your own handicapping and 261 00:13:53,799 --> 00:13:57,799 want to qualify what you're already seeing, and or maybe 262 00:13:57,840 --> 00:13:59,559 it's going to keep you off of a couple of things. 263 00:14:00,279 --> 00:14:02,200 You and I've talked about that several times on last 264 00:14:02,279 --> 00:14:05,039 call in regards to the sharp information that I get, 265 00:14:05,279 --> 00:14:08,559 all right, give everybody a little snippet of the steam. 266 00:14:08,639 --> 00:14:11,240 I know it's early in the week. We have forty 267 00:14:11,279 --> 00:14:13,559 eight hours until the game stip off, but I'm genuinely 268 00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:15,360 curious to see what the sharp groups have played so far. 269 00:14:15,679 --> 00:14:18,879 Speaker 3: Yeah, let's talk about first one Wednesday, because I don't 270 00:14:18,879 --> 00:14:21,080 know what times today will be. Oh so Miami, Ohio. 271 00:14:21,159 --> 00:14:23,120 They took the plus eight and a half on Miami 272 00:14:23,320 --> 00:14:27,720 and the eight took that out also against SMU. Then Thursday, 273 00:14:27,879 --> 00:14:32,320 they've already bet three favorites Vandy minus eleven, Illinois minus 274 00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:37,639 twenty two, Gonzaga minus nineteen. Now, be cautious, because I 275 00:14:37,840 --> 00:14:43,159 spoke about this earlier. A lot of the legit biggest 276 00:14:43,200 --> 00:14:48,759 positions come very late. More and more, as the markets 277 00:14:49,120 --> 00:14:53,279 have become more efficient, it seems like more and more 278 00:14:53,519 --> 00:14:56,360 of the biggest moves come in late, so pay attention 279 00:14:56,480 --> 00:14:59,080 to a lot of the later moves. Friday seven fifty six, 280 00:14:59,200 --> 00:15:01,440 Virginia minus evenventeen and a half, seven to sixty one, 281 00:15:01,519 --> 00:15:04,360 Santa Clara plus four and a half, seven seventy one, 282 00:15:04,519 --> 00:15:07,279 Utah State minus one and a half, seven forty nine, 283 00:15:07,399 --> 00:15:11,240 UCF plus the seven and seven sixty Perdue plus minus 284 00:15:11,279 --> 00:15:13,759 twenty three and a half. Now, if someone comes in 285 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:16,480 later two days later and they bet the other side, 286 00:15:16,519 --> 00:15:18,840 whether it's that group or not, I'll go back in 287 00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:21,240 that steamsheet. I'll let it be known and say, hey, 288 00:15:21,320 --> 00:15:23,720 this is a different group they bet the other side, 289 00:15:23,919 --> 00:15:27,080 or this group that actually bet that is now coming 290 00:15:27,120 --> 00:15:28,519 in on the other side, so it looks like they 291 00:15:28,679 --> 00:15:32,159 dummied it up. So I'll always follow through because again, 292 00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:34,720 a lot of this stuff you will see take back later, 293 00:15:35,519 --> 00:15:37,960 especially on these tournament games, once the public moves some 294 00:15:38,039 --> 00:15:41,000 of these lines, like Gonzaga minus nineteen. If Gonzaga gets 295 00:15:41,039 --> 00:15:43,360 to twenty two, let's say twenty two and a half, 296 00:15:43,519 --> 00:15:46,840 rest ashore, they're coming in and taking the dog later 297 00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:49,639 at plus. So uh, There's there'll be a lot of 298 00:15:49,679 --> 00:15:52,039 that going on with the tournament because the public's going 299 00:15:52,120 --> 00:15:54,159 to move so many of these lines once they start firing. 300 00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:57,799 Speaker 1: All right, let's get into some of those barking dogs. 301 00:15:58,000 --> 00:16:02,000 My favorite segment during bookball season. And I'm pretty happy 302 00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:04,320 we have a lot of double digit dogs that I'm 303 00:16:04,559 --> 00:16:05,639 salivating over. 304 00:16:06,159 --> 00:16:08,759 Speaker 2: The problem is Marco. I'm a little discouraged. 305 00:16:08,279 --> 00:16:11,279 Speaker 1: Because last year, if you were betting money line underdogs, 306 00:16:11,320 --> 00:16:16,320 you got absolutely crushed. So we each Doug really deep 307 00:16:16,399 --> 00:16:18,480 to try to find a dog that has a shot 308 00:16:18,559 --> 00:16:20,919 to went out right. Obviously we like them against the spread. 309 00:16:21,720 --> 00:16:24,399 Give me a dog, Marco that you think is worth 310 00:16:24,440 --> 00:16:26,600 a we'll extra on that money line. 311 00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:28,200 Speaker 4: Yeah, Kelly. 312 00:16:28,279 --> 00:16:32,879 Speaker 5: And last year was Chalk City, which wasn't good for 313 00:16:33,000 --> 00:16:37,000 the books, and it had talked with the station sportsbook 314 00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:40,440 director yesterday, Check Esposito, and he alluded to that was 315 00:16:40,559 --> 00:16:44,519 one of the first worst opening rounds the two days 316 00:16:44,720 --> 00:16:46,799 for the books in a long time. We didn't see 317 00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:49,919 those And is that going to be a trend moving 318 00:16:50,039 --> 00:16:53,679 forward now with you know, the rich getting richer, you know, 319 00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:57,279 because of nil money, We'll see. I never like to 320 00:16:57,320 --> 00:17:00,639 overreact to a one year sample size, but what I 321 00:17:00,759 --> 00:17:04,240 am gonna do is stay with what always works, and 322 00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:06,880 I'm looking at this one. We've got a five to 323 00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:10,000 twelve matchup. This is the most popular where we have 324 00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:14,599 seen the underdogs, you know, make some noise. But I've 325 00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:18,440 got more than that than just looking at the seeds. 326 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:23,880 You're looking at a Vanderbilt team that really had a 327 00:17:24,039 --> 00:17:26,559 remarkable end of the season. If you look at the 328 00:17:26,799 --> 00:17:31,240 final four games or the season, what they did really 329 00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:33,880 has their stock at the highest point of the season. 330 00:17:34,839 --> 00:17:37,920 You look at the last game of the regular season, 331 00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:41,079 they went on the road and beat their arch rival 332 00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:45,759 Big Brother Tennessee at Tennessee. That was a huge win. 333 00:17:46,359 --> 00:17:46,920 Speaker 4: What do they do. 334 00:17:47,119 --> 00:17:49,119 Speaker 5: They come right back in the next game. Who do 335 00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:53,279 they get in the first round of the SEC Tournament. Yeah, 336 00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:57,000 they get Tennessee again. This time it's not on their 337 00:17:57,319 --> 00:17:59,519 home floor, but it is in their home city. It 338 00:17:59,680 --> 00:18:03,759 was in Nashville with the Bridgestone Arena, where Nashville is 339 00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:09,079 home to Vanderbilt. They pulled another big victory over Big Brother. 340 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:11,720 So you would think, okay, right there, now, they're fat 341 00:18:11,799 --> 00:18:14,759 and sassy, They're gonna come up flat after that. 342 00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:16,359 Speaker 4: No they didn't. 343 00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:20,559 Speaker 5: They pulled off the biggest shocker I think of the tournament, 344 00:18:20,839 --> 00:18:26,680 just demolishing Florida in the next game. Everybody had Florida. 345 00:18:27,319 --> 00:18:31,480 Any expert you talk to Talking Head had Florida is 346 00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:36,160 playing the best ball in the country right now heading 347 00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:40,039 into the tournament, and they got waxed in that game. Well, 348 00:18:40,160 --> 00:18:42,000 they finally ran out of gas when they got to 349 00:18:42,079 --> 00:18:46,640 the championship game against Arkansas, and that was a spot 350 00:18:46,759 --> 00:18:50,519 where you know, they wanted that game in front of 351 00:18:50,559 --> 00:18:53,519 the home fans. I think there's gonna be a carryover 352 00:18:54,119 --> 00:18:58,480 hangover wise for Vanderbilt, and because of that run, you're 353 00:18:58,839 --> 00:19:02,279 laying a premium. Want Vanderbilt, Well that's just fine. I 354 00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:05,880 want the premium because I'm taking the dog. McNee State 355 00:19:06,039 --> 00:19:09,160 is a team that's won ten in a row, fourteen 356 00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:12,119 of their last fifteen. As they said, you're getting the 357 00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:15,920 benefit of an inflated number because you've got, you know, 358 00:19:16,160 --> 00:19:18,440 a no name you know in McNee State from a 359 00:19:18,519 --> 00:19:25,000 smaller conference, playing powerhouse SEC conference team that's looked very good. 360 00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:29,559 Let's go ahead take McNee State. Let's hope it reverts 361 00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:32,359 back to what we've seen so many years in the 362 00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:35,920 first round where these dogs sneak in under the number. 363 00:19:36,079 --> 00:19:37,880 I think this one's going to be a lot closer 364 00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:41,559 than people think. I'm grabbing the eleven and a half 365 00:19:41,759 --> 00:19:44,559 with McNee state. Kelly, Honestly, I see this kind of 366 00:19:44,559 --> 00:19:48,240 as a three to five point game either way, sprinkle here. 367 00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:51,319 McNee State is capable of pulling the upset. 368 00:19:51,799 --> 00:19:52,519 Speaker 2: I'm here for it. 369 00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:56,400 Speaker 1: I'm here for all of the madness, and it will 370 00:19:56,480 --> 00:19:59,920 be absolute, utter madness if this team wins out right, 371 00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:04,680 VR is one happening, Mark, and I again Mark, when 372 00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:08,079 I come in with nice double digit underdogs and VR 373 00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:11,240 gives us one, that's three touchdown and a field goal 374 00:20:11,319 --> 00:20:12,519 underdog twenty. 375 00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:13,680 Speaker 3: More twenty four. 376 00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:15,920 Speaker 4: Here's why the truth. 377 00:20:16,319 --> 00:20:19,079 Speaker 3: I keep it real because we have the best supporters 378 00:20:19,839 --> 00:20:22,480 for this show by far. I just love going by 379 00:20:22,599 --> 00:20:25,119 just to read the comments afterwards. With that said, I 380 00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:27,079 haven't gotten to the window. I know you guys love 381 00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:30,200 hearing that yet with a dog. In fact, I've only 382 00:20:30,319 --> 00:20:34,160 released a four percent for Thursday and a four percent 383 00:20:34,279 --> 00:20:38,880 for Tuesday nights playing game. I'm staying selective because we're 384 00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:42,480 gonna crush these next few weeks. The dog will pop up. 385 00:20:42,759 --> 00:20:46,920 It just hasn't been clear yet, but there is one 386 00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:48,839 that I'm looking at that's definitely getting more points than 387 00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:51,240 they should based on power ratings and then I think 388 00:20:51,319 --> 00:20:53,799 the matchup lines up nicely as well. And I'm talking 389 00:20:53,799 --> 00:20:58,839 about the Idaho Vandals getting twenty four plus points against Houston. Now, 390 00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:02,119 you guys know, well, I've been high on Houston all season. 391 00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:04,640 I've had them in the top five. I have him 392 00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:07,240 fifth rank now currently I think that's where the AP 393 00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:10,839 finally finished up with them fifth. So we agree there. 394 00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:13,119 It's the Idaho side that I think is being a 395 00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:17,480 little undervalued here. Number one, I get it week conference 396 00:21:17,799 --> 00:21:21,240 week strength of schedule. That's obvious. They've played the two 397 00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:24,400 hundred and thirteenth toughest strength of schedule compared to the 398 00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:26,880 twenty first toughest strength of schedule for Houston. 399 00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:30,359 Speaker 4: With all that said, Houston's. 400 00:21:29,839 --> 00:21:32,079 Speaker 3: Been so impressive on the defensive side of the ball. 401 00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:34,920 With that toughest strength of schedule, you're number one defensively. 402 00:21:35,759 --> 00:21:38,559 So Idaho's probably going to have some trouble putting up 403 00:21:38,559 --> 00:21:41,920 a lot of points. But luckily for Idaho, Houston's not 404 00:21:42,039 --> 00:21:44,920 an offensive jugger, not by any stretch of the imagination. 405 00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:47,000 In fact, that's the reason they're not going to win 406 00:21:47,039 --> 00:21:51,000 the NCAA Championship, probably because their offense isn't going to 407 00:21:51,799 --> 00:21:55,000 be able to get them over that hump, because they're 408 00:21:55,039 --> 00:22:01,599 barely in the top fifty offensively, and even though they're 409 00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:06,359 not jumping off the page, statistically, they are better on 410 00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:07,960 the defensive side of the ball than they are on 411 00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:09,480 the offensive side of the ball, at least that's what 412 00:22:09,599 --> 00:22:14,039 all the data shows. So they have. The strength for 413 00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:17,039 his team is their defense, while the weakness for Houston 414 00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:19,240 is their offense. That bodes well when you have to 415 00:22:19,319 --> 00:22:22,839 cover almost a thirty points spread for the Dog. And 416 00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:24,720 then when I look at Iaho, they just haven't been 417 00:22:24,759 --> 00:22:28,240 blown out. Like I said, their defense is their strength, 418 00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:32,119 and they've kept them in the games where they haven't 419 00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:34,480 lost a single game I believe by more than fifteen 420 00:22:34,519 --> 00:22:37,759 points or maybe one, and that was it. So they 421 00:22:37,839 --> 00:22:39,839 have been able to keep them close. I think they're 422 00:22:39,839 --> 00:22:42,720 able to do that here. I think Houston is thinking 423 00:22:42,839 --> 00:22:46,079 Final four or bust. I don't think they really care 424 00:22:46,279 --> 00:22:49,119 about how badly they beat Idaho. I think all they 425 00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:51,920 got to do is get past Idaho. And the key 426 00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:54,599 once you're ahead by fifteen to twenty twenty five points 427 00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:57,960 is health. Get your guys, keep your guys healthy, don't 428 00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:00,559 give them too much minutes and I get it Houston's 429 00:23:00,559 --> 00:23:04,359 backups would be starting at Idaho. I understand that, but 430 00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:07,759 still I still think Idaho starters will have a better 431 00:23:07,759 --> 00:23:10,920 shot at covering against the backups of Houston late than 432 00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:14,000 Houston pulling away and winning by thirty. So take Idaho 433 00:23:14,079 --> 00:23:16,839 to keep another game close. They won't be able to win, 434 00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:18,759 but they will put a scare in Houston, at least 435 00:23:18,759 --> 00:23:20,599 in the first half before the cream rises to the 436 00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:23,960 top and the size and speed and athleticism starts to 437 00:23:24,039 --> 00:23:26,480 take over. But they'll keep it within twenty four. So 438 00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:27,880 I like Idaho as the dog. 439 00:23:28,599 --> 00:23:31,519 Speaker 2: All right? Do you think they're worth a little money line? Sprinkle? 440 00:23:31,559 --> 00:23:34,400 Speaker 3: I did take them in the count to spring. I 441 00:23:34,559 --> 00:23:36,599 love the question, thank you, because I forgot to say 442 00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:39,880 that there won't be a dog that I bet in 443 00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:42,319 this tournament that I don't have some risk on the 444 00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:42,960 money line? 445 00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:44,920 Speaker 2: Can you can you give me like a percentage? 446 00:23:46,319 --> 00:23:46,480 Speaker 3: Yes? 447 00:23:46,839 --> 00:23:49,799 Speaker 2: Yes, So let's just face math. 448 00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:52,200 Speaker 1: Let's say you have one hundred and ten dollars plus 449 00:23:52,839 --> 00:23:55,319 to win one hundred and plus twenty four. How much 450 00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:58,640 would you have five bucks on the money line on. 451 00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:04,240 Speaker 3: A twenty a twenty plus point line. I'd probably put 452 00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:07,000 Kelly maybe like two percent at the most on the 453 00:24:07,039 --> 00:24:11,839 money line. If I'm getting between that ten points and 454 00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:15,119 twenty points, I'll put up to five percent on the 455 00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:17,759 money line. But if I'm getting ten points or less 456 00:24:18,079 --> 00:24:20,079 I'm put in the tournament, I'm putting ten percent of 457 00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:22,359 my money on the on the money line. So meaning 458 00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:24,680 if I take a plus eight and a half and 459 00:24:25,279 --> 00:24:28,000 i have one hundred and ten to win, I'm gonna 460 00:24:28,039 --> 00:24:31,599 bet ninety nine to win ninety on plus eight and 461 00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:33,559 a half, and I'm gonna put that other ten on 462 00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:37,680 the money line at plus two whatever. Absolutely, it's tournament 463 00:24:37,759 --> 00:24:40,359 time and this is where you do see those live 464 00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:42,799 dogs get the ws and not just keep it close. 465 00:24:43,480 --> 00:24:46,400 So in those spreads under ten, I'm not afraid to 466 00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:49,400 put ten percent of my bet size on the money line, 467 00:24:49,799 --> 00:24:52,440 knowing that when the dust settles, I'll cash enough of 468 00:24:52,519 --> 00:24:55,799 those where it'll be the ROI will be higher because 469 00:24:55,839 --> 00:24:57,440 I did that than not doing it. 470 00:24:57,920 --> 00:24:59,799 Speaker 2: Okay, thank you for that answer. 471 00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:03,240 Speaker 1: If you guys are new to the Sports Memo marketplace, 472 00:25:03,319 --> 00:25:05,559 We've got a special treat just for you guys. 473 00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:08,880 Speaker 2: Coupon code bet on It. You're gonna get a. 474 00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:11,759 Speaker 1: Free package over at sports Memo until the tournament tips off, 475 00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:16,680 which is twelve to fifteen pm Eastern on Thursday, TCU 476 00:25:16,839 --> 00:25:19,359 Ohio State. So head over to the sports Memo marketplace 477 00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:20,920 sportsmemo dot Com. 478 00:25:21,119 --> 00:25:23,039 Speaker 2: Coupon code bet on it. 479 00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:23,400 Speaker 4: Now. 480 00:25:23,519 --> 00:25:26,880 Speaker 1: If you guys are thinking I'm only giving out this 481 00:25:27,039 --> 00:25:30,720 game because Aiden Holloway got arrested the other day, you're 482 00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:34,559 dead wrong. We talked about this game on Sunday where 483 00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:38,359 I said, Hey, don't be surprised this clash of styles 484 00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:44,880 between Hofstra and Alabama couldn't result in a first round upset. 485 00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:46,079 Speaker 2: YEP, that's right. 486 00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:50,200 Speaker 1: Hofstro one of the slowest adjusted tempo teams, one of 487 00:25:50,279 --> 00:25:54,480 the slowest average possession link teams. Versus Bama that is 488 00:25:54,799 --> 00:25:57,799 absolutely one of the fastest rings in the top five 489 00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:01,440 in adjusted tempo rings in the top ten and possession link. 490 00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:04,079 Here's a couple of things Alabama doesn't do. They don't 491 00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:09,559 turn the ball over, but they don't get blocks, they 492 00:26:09,599 --> 00:26:10,759 don't get boards. 493 00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:15,319 Speaker 2: Look for this hops hawkster team to beat them down low. 494 00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:19,240 Speaker 1: They have one of the best two point percentage defenses 495 00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:23,680 in the country top three over there on Ken Pomp 496 00:26:24,279 --> 00:26:27,119 and I will say this as well. You want to 497 00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:31,079 keep an eye on teams such as Hofstra that, like 498 00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:33,640 Marco said, versus the big Bad SEC. 499 00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:36,599 Speaker 2: When you have a team that a. 500 00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:39,480 Speaker 1: Lot of people haven't heard of from the Coastal Athletic Conference, 501 00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:41,200 I believe that used to be the Colonial but they 502 00:26:41,359 --> 00:26:43,480 changed it on me, so I got to keep up 503 00:26:43,519 --> 00:26:44,240 on things like that. 504 00:26:44,839 --> 00:26:47,279 Speaker 2: Hafstra has been a solid team. Now. 505 00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:50,359 Speaker 1: They have one Quad loss this year, but it was 506 00:26:50,519 --> 00:26:52,920 to UCF and it was only by four, and there 507 00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:56,440 are two and two against Quad two opponents. They're currently 508 00:26:56,519 --> 00:26:59,440 on a seven game win streak, eleven and two in 509 00:26:59,519 --> 00:27:03,160 their last twelve games. So keep an eye here on 510 00:27:03,319 --> 00:27:06,039 this team that was a twelve and a half point underdog, 511 00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:09,400 now down to eleven and a half due to no 512 00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:12,279 Aiden Holloway. I think they have a real shot to 513 00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:14,960 win this out right. Like VR said, don't forget to 514 00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:19,920 sprinkle just a little bit on that money line. Marco di'angelo, 515 00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:23,599 your Deli just absolutely crushed it during basketball season. But 516 00:27:23,759 --> 00:27:28,079 unfortunately we don't really have a Deli spot during March Madness. 517 00:27:28,119 --> 00:27:31,079 It doesn't really work that way. There's not a sandwich 518 00:27:31,319 --> 00:27:33,720 of sorts. So you have a trap game for us 519 00:27:33,799 --> 00:27:34,200 this week? 520 00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:37,640 Speaker 4: We do, and Kelly one thing here before we leave 521 00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:38,720 the dogs segment. 522 00:27:38,799 --> 00:27:41,240 Speaker 5: You know, all three of us had double digit dogs, 523 00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:46,359 and I think I don't know if Ace has him nearby, 524 00:27:47,039 --> 00:27:51,839 but I think we should show the size of the dogs. 525 00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:54,960 Speaker 4: You know, you always say you like the big dogs. Kelly, 526 00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:56,200 look at this guy. 527 00:27:57,319 --> 00:27:59,880 Speaker 5: I love I love that. 528 00:28:03,559 --> 00:28:03,759 Speaker 4: Dog. 529 00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:09,759 Speaker 2: Oh good grief. Listen, I just adopted a like me. 530 00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:12,240 Speaker 3: I got a dog. 531 00:28:12,559 --> 00:28:13,480 Speaker 2: He doesn't even like me. 532 00:28:13,599 --> 00:28:16,400 Speaker 3: He likes Brett, so he loves me. This guy loves 533 00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:17,039 me to death. 534 00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:21,559 Speaker 2: That has made my day. Great call by Marco. Uh, 535 00:28:21,839 --> 00:28:25,799 Marco di'angelo, before you get into your trap game, UH, 536 00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:29,039 let me know what you've got going on over at 537 00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:30,200 wager talk dot com. 538 00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:33,400 Speaker 5: Well, it's a sight wide special going on, and you 539 00:28:33,519 --> 00:28:35,440 got to take advantage of the day you sign up. 540 00:28:35,799 --> 00:28:39,240 Speaker 4: That's the day you start. March Madness Bonanza. 541 00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:44,240 Speaker 5: Get every play through college basketball, all the tournaments, n 542 00:28:44,279 --> 00:28:48,480 it the Big Dance, Get everything, including five percent plays 543 00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:50,880 and remember those five percent play sell for thirty five 544 00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:55,119 dollars by themselves. You'll get everything through the championship game 545 00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:57,759 for just one hundred and forty nine dollars. Pick your 546 00:28:57,799 --> 00:29:00,839 favorite kapper, pick a couple of them. Have a couple 547 00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:05,880 guys in your arsenal to attack the march madness that 548 00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:06,720 we're about to. 549 00:29:06,839 --> 00:29:10,119 Speaker 4: Begin, and we'll have some plays up for you. 550 00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:14,480 Speaker 5: I'll have a five percent somewhere in here, probably in 551 00:29:14,559 --> 00:29:17,799 the first or second round this week as we move on. 552 00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:19,599 Speaker 4: And those have been very good to us. 553 00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:23,240 Speaker 5: You know, the record on those five percent place forty 554 00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:27,839 three in twenty three over the last two plus years 555 00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:31,759 with those plays, So check it out, get your favorite capper. 556 00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:35,880 Highly recommend picking up myself in Ace. That's a great 557 00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:38,680 one two punch. You watch us every week here on 558 00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:42,240 bed on It, and as Kelly said, the Deli will 559 00:29:42,319 --> 00:29:42,920 be open. 560 00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:44,720 Speaker 4: What we're gonna do this. 561 00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:48,039 Speaker 5: Week is obviously because we can cover the Thursday and 562 00:29:48,119 --> 00:29:50,279 Friday games for you here on bed on It. 563 00:29:51,039 --> 00:29:52,119 Speaker 4: We can't cover the. 564 00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:55,279 Speaker 5: Saturday games yet because we don't know who's gonna be playing. Well, 565 00:29:55,799 --> 00:29:59,440 that result will be after Thursday we'll know who's playing Saturday. 566 00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:02,440 I'll open the Delhi up and preview a few games 567 00:30:02,519 --> 00:30:06,039 for you on the Saturday card, so look for that 568 00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:10,640 late Friday afternoon. Covering the Saturday card, I'll have a 569 00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:12,799 few plays for you in the Delhi and the Delhi 570 00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:16,839 has hit sixty percent this year Deli. And now, speaking 571 00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:20,799 of that trap game that I was talking about, this one, boy, 572 00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:23,279 I tell you what you talk about a foul smell 573 00:30:23,519 --> 00:30:25,759 coming out of the Delhi. 574 00:30:26,599 --> 00:30:29,240 Speaker 4: When I saw this line, I had to go, what 575 00:30:29,559 --> 00:30:29,799 is that? 576 00:30:30,519 --> 00:30:33,519 Speaker 5: You got a Mountain West Conference team as a favorite 577 00:30:34,079 --> 00:30:37,400 over a Big East team and they're the worst seed. 578 00:30:38,119 --> 00:30:43,279 Villanova's the number eight seed, Utah States the number nine seed. Well, 579 00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:47,799 I'll tell you, Kelly. We know the history of the 580 00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:51,519 Mountain West Conference in the Big Dance. It's not been good. 581 00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:54,480 Other than the fact that San Diego State a few 582 00:30:54,599 --> 00:30:57,960 years ago had that magical run to the championship game, 583 00:30:58,319 --> 00:31:01,440 it has been a night for teams out of the 584 00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:04,640 Mountain West Conference. But why do I think that's gonna 585 00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:07,559 be different this year? Well, there's only one team that 586 00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:10,119 made it out of the Mountain West Conference to the 587 00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:13,079 Big Dance this year. Usually you'll see you two or 588 00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:16,559 three teams, sometimes even sneak four in and then they 589 00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:19,759 just got blasted because they were just mediocre. There was 590 00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:23,000 one team that was on top of this conference all 591 00:31:23,119 --> 00:31:26,160 year and that was Utah State. They were the best 592 00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:28,960 team during the regular season, they were the best team 593 00:31:29,519 --> 00:31:33,359 during the tournament. They rolled through the tournament to get 594 00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:38,960 the conference championship, and I am going to ride them here. Villanova, Yeah, 595 00:31:39,119 --> 00:31:43,079 they're the name, they're the conference, but I gotta be 596 00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:47,279 honest with you, the big East outside of Connecticut in 597 00:31:47,400 --> 00:31:52,119 Saint John's really didn't impress me. And the fact that 598 00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:57,480 this line is Villanova an underdog screams to me that 599 00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:01,599 the right side is Utah State. And when you look 600 00:32:01,640 --> 00:32:05,440 at this, there's a reason we've got big, shiny casinos 601 00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:09,519 here in Las Vegas. Okay, it's not because they make 602 00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:12,880 mistakes and the Republic is winning. 603 00:32:13,119 --> 00:32:13,799 Speaker 4: It's not that. 604 00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:18,039 Speaker 5: Okay, the books win and they'll tell you that. You 605 00:32:18,119 --> 00:32:21,319 can ask Case. He says all the time, over ninety 606 00:32:21,359 --> 00:32:25,079 percent of sports betters lose, and I'm talking well over 607 00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:30,559 ninety percent. Here is a situation where you look at this. 608 00:32:31,039 --> 00:32:35,039 You look at the people that set the seatings. They 609 00:32:35,119 --> 00:32:39,160 sit in a room, they're watching games, they're making the rankings, 610 00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:42,319 they're making the seatings. Do you want to back them 611 00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:44,599 or do you want to back the people that sit 612 00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:48,480 in Las Vegas behind the counters and take real bets 613 00:32:49,359 --> 00:32:52,000 and set the numbers. I'm always going to side with 614 00:32:52,079 --> 00:32:55,720 the book makers over somebody setting a poll or seating, 615 00:32:56,200 --> 00:32:58,319 and they're telling me who the better team is, and 616 00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:01,119 I agree with them, it's Utah State. I'm not gonna 617 00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:06,359 fall for the trap of betting a good looking underdog 618 00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:07,799 from a big conference. 619 00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:08,799 Speaker 4: Not doing it. 620 00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:11,920 Speaker 5: We're going with Utah State. We're going to back the 621 00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:16,160 Mountain West Conference. And you'll hear the stat a gazillion 622 00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:18,599 times over the next two days of how bad the 623 00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:21,200 Mountain West Conference has been in the big dance. There's 624 00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:23,240 only one team that's going to be a sample size 625 00:33:23,279 --> 00:33:25,759 of one this year. UTA State advances. 626 00:33:26,319 --> 00:33:28,039 Speaker 2: All right, Well, Marco took the words right out of 627 00:33:28,079 --> 00:33:29,960 my mouth because he probably saw the script and knew 628 00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:30,759 I was going to come in. 629 00:33:30,839 --> 00:33:33,480 Speaker 4: Hot with how I didn't give the number. I left 630 00:33:33,519 --> 00:33:35,440 it for you, Kelly. I knew that, and now I. 631 00:33:35,519 --> 00:33:37,519 Speaker 2: Closed out acts. Way to go, Kelly, Let's see if 632 00:33:37,519 --> 00:33:41,400 I still have it open. Nope, it's Hubert too. Then 633 00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:44,279 I got Hubert Davis going nine and two against Vco. 634 00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:46,519 Of course, that's what pops up right now. All right, 635 00:33:46,559 --> 00:33:47,960 let's hear what your stat is, Marco. 636 00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:52,319 Speaker 4: Uh, the stat is that you put in the script 637 00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:54,759 and didn't read. So say, I got your back, Kelly, 638 00:33:54,839 --> 00:33:55,480 it's all good. 639 00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:58,400 Speaker 2: You got thrown off like Marco already touched on it. 640 00:33:59,079 --> 00:34:02,799 Speaker 5: Yeah, last twenty years man. Since two thousand and five, 641 00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:05,720 the Mountain West Conference is just fifteen and thirty four 642 00:34:05,759 --> 00:34:10,880 against the spread and as a nine seed or better, 643 00:34:11,559 --> 00:34:14,199 just three and fourteen against the spread. So we're bucking 644 00:34:14,280 --> 00:34:17,760 some history there. But you know what, Utah State wasn't 645 00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:20,239 in any of those numbers. 646 00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:22,480 Speaker 4: Let's go ahead. This is a sample size this year. 647 00:34:22,559 --> 00:34:25,480 Speaker 5: You got to treat each game on its own basis 648 00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:28,480 and what you have this year, and Villanova is down, 649 00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:30,320 Utah State is up. 650 00:34:30,599 --> 00:34:32,280 Speaker 4: I'm taking them all right. 651 00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:34,840 Speaker 2: If you guys are enjoying the show, I need you 652 00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:38,119 to take a pause, make sure you hit that thumbs 653 00:34:38,159 --> 00:34:40,760 up button, give us a like. If you're not already subscribed, 654 00:34:41,159 --> 00:34:41,920 you are behind. 655 00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:44,719 Speaker 1: There are almost two hundred and forty two thousand other 656 00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:47,840 people that are, so take a moment to subscribe. Check 657 00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:50,440 out Becoming It Wager Talking Insider two dollars and ninety 658 00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:54,559 nine cents per month, wt Dot buzz Backslash Insider, and yes, 659 00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:57,119 the Insider's gonna watch this show a few hours before 660 00:34:57,360 --> 00:34:58,280 the rest of you. 661 00:34:58,920 --> 00:35:01,000 Speaker 2: And if you don't like us, or you do throw 662 00:35:01,159 --> 00:35:03,719 a comment or two into the comment section. That's my 663 00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:04,400 new favorite thing. 664 00:35:04,840 --> 00:35:06,920 Speaker 1: Marco doesn't know that, but that's like what I've been 665 00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:09,880 doing in my side time between shows is being in 666 00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:12,039 the comments section. And I'm sure you guys can tell 667 00:35:12,199 --> 00:35:14,559 by the comments that it's no longer the person who 668 00:35:14,679 --> 00:35:16,480 was doing it. There's a lot of smart assiness in 669 00:35:16,559 --> 00:35:19,199 there now and that would be coming from me. So 670 00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:22,440 let's get into these best bets for you guys for 671 00:35:22,559 --> 00:35:26,559 the first round here Thursday and Friday. 672 00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:29,280 Speaker 2: VR. You and I are an agreement on this one. 673 00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:34,880 Speaker 1: I do not understand the love for the akron Zips 674 00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:36,679 at this point in time. When it came out nine 675 00:35:36,719 --> 00:35:39,599 and a half, I was like, all right, talk to 676 00:35:39,719 --> 00:35:43,519 me here. I know Obi Toppin got hurt about a. 677 00:35:43,519 --> 00:35:45,679 Speaker 2: Month and a half ago. I know Texas Tech has 678 00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:49,159 kind of been floundering here into March, but boy, does 679 00:35:49,199 --> 00:35:51,119 this seem cheap to take the Red Raiders. 680 00:35:51,719 --> 00:35:57,719 Speaker 3: Indeed, and you're getting a bet that I did get 681 00:35:57,800 --> 00:36:00,920 to the window with already. This was the four percent 682 00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:05,360 I sent out for the tournament, and I'm going to 683 00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:08,559 give you the reasoning why. Again. I've power rated every 684 00:36:08,719 --> 00:36:12,000 side in total, so I have a prediction for the 685 00:36:12,639 --> 00:36:16,880 point spread and the total in every single matchup. And again, 686 00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:21,599 I'm gonna repeat it because it matters. Production matters. And 687 00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:25,480 right now, sitting at number two in college basketball profit 688 00:36:25,559 --> 00:36:28,960 overall over seventy units after finishing number one in college 689 00:36:28,960 --> 00:36:33,800 football using the same approach, NFL always this same exact approach. 690 00:36:34,039 --> 00:36:36,480 And here's what stuck out to me. I wasn't surprised 691 00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:39,360 to see the actor money come in immediately at minus nine. 692 00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:42,079 Here's why, because of the top in situation that you 693 00:36:42,159 --> 00:36:45,960 touched on. Having to replace that production obviously was going 694 00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:49,079 to be difficult because it happened in February and March 695 00:36:49,159 --> 00:36:51,239 Madness was just around the corner, so they didn't have 696 00:36:51,400 --> 00:36:55,440 much time to recover. Twenty one point eight points per game, 697 00:36:55,840 --> 00:36:58,760 ten point eight rebounds, and he shot fifty five percent 698 00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:01,960 from the floor. Okay, you're not going to replace that instantly, 699 00:37:02,199 --> 00:37:06,960 but value of replacement players one of the highest correlations 700 00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:11,679 to pick and winners. And they have that replacement players, 701 00:37:12,119 --> 00:37:16,360 not that to someone's going to step in and produce that, 702 00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:22,280 but the team to produce that, they have the players 703 00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:26,239 intact to do so. So here's the bottom line with 704 00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:29,840 this matchup, power rating wise, Texas Tech should be about 705 00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:32,920 a ten ten and a half point favorite. When I 706 00:37:32,960 --> 00:37:36,480 saw the line come out nine or so, it wasn't touchable. 707 00:37:36,519 --> 00:37:38,159 At that point. I had about, you know, a point 708 00:37:38,199 --> 00:37:40,559 point and a half edge at the most. But it 709 00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:46,480 was that move down because of the injury when the 710 00:37:46,559 --> 00:37:49,280 limits were low that brought it down to minus seven 711 00:37:49,639 --> 00:37:53,760 that gave me a big enough edge line wise, about 712 00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:55,760 a three and a half point based on my number 713 00:37:56,039 --> 00:37:57,760 to fire. And that's why I sent out a four 714 00:37:57,800 --> 00:38:00,480 percent to subscribers. Now when I look at the screen, 715 00:38:00,920 --> 00:38:03,119 it's at minus eight. So we did our job. We 716 00:38:03,199 --> 00:38:05,320 got in, we got a little bit of closing line value. 717 00:38:05,679 --> 00:38:09,119 The market respected that minus seven bet. It's now sitting 718 00:38:09,159 --> 00:38:11,599 at minus eight. Why am I still using it for 719 00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:13,880 this show? Because it still qualifies as the best bet 720 00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:16,920 at eight. Again, I have this one, and I'm being generous. 721 00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:20,920 That's after shading for the top end injury, and I 722 00:38:21,079 --> 00:38:25,639 still have them closer to eleven than ten. Texas Tech 723 00:38:25,679 --> 00:38:28,760 winning this game, so even at eight still qualifies for 724 00:38:29,039 --> 00:38:32,320 a best bet. It's just not even closed real quickly. 725 00:38:32,519 --> 00:38:35,719 Texas Tech had the eighth toughest schedule in off college basketball, 726 00:38:35,760 --> 00:38:39,360 so a top ten tough schedule and their top twenty 727 00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:42,239 five in offense and top twenty five in defense. So 728 00:38:42,360 --> 00:38:47,800 there's balanced as it comes heading into this tournament. Flip 729 00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:51,599 side of that coin, anchoring one hundred and ninety third 730 00:38:51,960 --> 00:38:55,079 toughest strength of schedule, so almost two hundred all right, 731 00:38:55,559 --> 00:38:58,840 And with that tough strength of schedule, that easy strength 732 00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:01,719 of schedule, they had the one hundred and seventy fifth 733 00:39:02,559 --> 00:39:06,320 best defense. This offensive Texas Tech, They're not gonna have 734 00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:10,280 problems scoring on Acron at all. And offensively, Akron just 735 00:39:10,400 --> 00:39:13,599 cracked the top fifty in efficiency and now going up 736 00:39:13,599 --> 00:39:16,760 against the top twenty five defense, they're gonna have trouble scoring. 737 00:39:17,039 --> 00:39:19,320 So Texas Tech will do the scoring. They won't have 738 00:39:19,400 --> 00:39:22,719 trouble stopping Acron. This seven to eight, ten point lead'll 739 00:39:22,719 --> 00:39:24,920 turn in the seventeen to twenty in the second half, 740 00:39:25,599 --> 00:39:29,039 and they easily pull away. Texas Tech wins this game 741 00:39:29,079 --> 00:39:31,840 by double digits. It's a gift. It's a gift at 742 00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:36,920 minus eight. So yeah, I'm laying the chalk here, Keil, all. 743 00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:42,119 Speaker 2: Right, laying the chalk. Marco. I don't know what to 744 00:39:42,280 --> 00:39:44,760 make of this next game. I know that Louisville has 745 00:39:44,840 --> 00:39:46,239 not been great against the spread. 746 00:39:46,760 --> 00:39:49,719 Speaker 1: But boy, on Sunday when we were doing the live show, 747 00:39:50,119 --> 00:39:52,320 immediately as soon as that side of the bracket came out, 748 00:39:52,440 --> 00:39:55,559 USF USF, USF, USF, and I'm like, I just watched 749 00:39:55,679 --> 00:39:58,519 USF and they just cash for me against Wichita State. 750 00:39:59,519 --> 00:40:01,440 I thought, maybe they're getting a little bit too much love. 751 00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:04,039 But maybe our wager Talk audience is sharper than I 752 00:40:04,119 --> 00:40:06,360 give them credit for. Tell me why you like the 753 00:40:06,480 --> 00:40:09,239 USF Bulls and do you think they are worth a 754 00:40:09,440 --> 00:40:09,920 money line? 755 00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:13,960 Speaker 5: Sprinkle absolutely, Kelly. This is a team's playing the best 756 00:40:14,039 --> 00:40:16,239 ball of the season right now. They've won eleven in 757 00:40:16,320 --> 00:40:19,400 a row. They've gone eight and three against the spread 758 00:40:19,519 --> 00:40:23,800 during that eleven game winning streak, signaling that the market 759 00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:26,800 hasn't caught up to them yet. And this is another 760 00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:30,320 matchup where we're going to talk about the public's gonna 761 00:40:30,360 --> 00:40:34,280 dismiss South Florida's run because they play in, you know, 762 00:40:34,719 --> 00:40:38,199 a lesser conference. They play in the American Conference, which 763 00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:42,400 obviously is not considered a powerhouse compared to Louisville coming 764 00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:45,360 out of the Mighty ACC. But the fact is, and 765 00:40:45,480 --> 00:40:49,159 you already alluded to it, the ACC in my opinion 766 00:40:49,239 --> 00:40:53,159 this year as a whole was down. You know, yes, 767 00:40:53,440 --> 00:40:56,119 Duke one of the best teams in the country, there's 768 00:40:56,159 --> 00:40:58,239 no question about that. But I think there was a 769 00:40:58,280 --> 00:41:01,400 big drop off after due and especially when you got 770 00:41:01,440 --> 00:41:03,920 to the bottom half of the conference. So I'm not 771 00:41:04,079 --> 00:41:07,760 that impressed with Louisville. They've been inconsistent most of the year. 772 00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:11,480 And when you look at this, you also have another 773 00:41:11,599 --> 00:41:15,599 angle that I like, You've got a ranked team Louisville, 774 00:41:15,719 --> 00:41:17,719 you know, it's just barely in the top twenty five 775 00:41:18,400 --> 00:41:20,239 against you know, an unranked team. 776 00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:21,320 Speaker 4: You know, that's an angle. 777 00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:23,199 Speaker 5: You know, we talk about it in football when you 778 00:41:23,280 --> 00:41:26,519 can get you know, a team under you know, under 779 00:41:26,559 --> 00:41:30,519 a touchdown underdog and their unranked playing a ranked team, 780 00:41:30,559 --> 00:41:32,719 that's always something that I'm going to look at. Well, 781 00:41:32,960 --> 00:41:35,480 same thing here. You're looking at a point spread of 782 00:41:35,559 --> 00:41:38,639 only five and a half. Looks a little bit easy 783 00:41:38,679 --> 00:41:41,960 maybe to take that powerhouse team. And if you've watched 784 00:41:42,039 --> 00:41:44,760 bet on It for any amount of time, you've heard 785 00:41:44,840 --> 00:41:48,760 me say gazillion times, if I can get the better 786 00:41:48,920 --> 00:41:52,920 defensive team getting points, I'm generally going to be lining 787 00:41:53,039 --> 00:41:56,960 up on that side. And South Florida plays defense. They 788 00:41:57,039 --> 00:42:00,280 play a tenacious defense. They've held eight of their last 789 00:42:00,360 --> 00:42:03,599 ten opponents to under forty percent shooting from the field. 790 00:42:04,039 --> 00:42:07,440 They've held six of the last seven opponents to sixty 791 00:42:07,599 --> 00:42:11,480 six or fewer points. This one, I think is gonna 792 00:42:11,480 --> 00:42:13,400 go right down to the wire. I think South Flora 793 00:42:13,480 --> 00:42:16,880 can dictate the tempo in this game, and we get 794 00:42:17,159 --> 00:42:20,159 a game in the sixties and I'm getting five and 795 00:42:20,199 --> 00:42:23,199 a half. Yeah, that's where I'm gonna line up. Give 796 00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:27,320 me South Florida plus the points, and let's call it 797 00:42:27,679 --> 00:42:30,440 first upset of the tournament. Because this one starts early 798 00:42:30,519 --> 00:42:31,199 on Thursday. 799 00:42:31,559 --> 00:42:33,559 Speaker 4: Let's get it. Let's get it into books and start 800 00:42:33,599 --> 00:42:34,840 things off on the right foot. 801 00:42:35,679 --> 00:42:40,199 Speaker 2: All right, I do agree with you, Marco on USF. 802 00:42:40,320 --> 00:42:42,960 Speaker 1: I do not trust this Louisville team. And you know 803 00:42:43,039 --> 00:42:46,159 what other team I don't trust the University of Kansas. 804 00:42:46,400 --> 00:42:51,280 They have had a myriad of issues throughout this basketball 805 00:42:51,360 --> 00:42:53,159 season and it all stems from. 806 00:42:53,079 --> 00:42:55,840 Speaker 2: One guy named Darren Peterson and. 807 00:42:56,199 --> 00:43:01,639 Speaker 1: Not allowing Bill Bill self coach, to have any power 808 00:43:01,719 --> 00:43:04,960 over his locker room. And after he checked himself out 809 00:43:05,000 --> 00:43:08,880 of that game there in mid January, things started to unravel. 810 00:43:09,400 --> 00:43:12,960 Loss at Iowa State, loss at home and ugly loss 811 00:43:13,000 --> 00:43:16,960 at home to Cincinnati, Arizona Arizona State road trip out west, 812 00:43:17,000 --> 00:43:18,559 and then fine, they got to beat up on my 813 00:43:18,679 --> 00:43:23,199 Wildcats there on that last Saturday home game. But what 814 00:43:23,360 --> 00:43:25,960 did they do that was impressive in the Big twelve tournament. 815 00:43:26,280 --> 00:43:29,400 Not a damn thing. They get past TCU, no cover, 816 00:43:29,840 --> 00:43:32,760 and then just get absolutely throttled by Houston. They look 817 00:43:32,880 --> 00:43:34,039 like they didn't even. 818 00:43:33,920 --> 00:43:35,440 Speaker 2: Want to be there. 819 00:43:36,000 --> 00:43:38,920 Speaker 1: Now, I will say this, defensively, KU is a pretty 820 00:43:39,000 --> 00:43:44,559 solid team outside of capitalizing off those defensive turnovers. But 821 00:43:45,519 --> 00:43:48,039 this cal Baptist team has kind of been a we'll 822 00:43:48,079 --> 00:43:52,000 call it surprising if you will. I know, I'm not 823 00:43:52,000 --> 00:43:54,280 supposed to know anything about cal Baptist, but I've got 824 00:43:54,280 --> 00:43:56,639 a couple cheat sheets and I had to dig a 825 00:43:56,719 --> 00:43:58,880 little deep on this one because fourteen and a half 826 00:43:58,880 --> 00:44:03,000 points seems pretty steep. Cal Baptists one of the best 827 00:44:03,320 --> 00:44:09,000 three point field goal percentages. Defensively, the only team that's 828 00:44:09,039 --> 00:44:10,440 better Northern Iowa. 829 00:44:10,800 --> 00:44:11,840 Speaker 2: So look at their. 830 00:44:11,760 --> 00:44:14,360 Speaker 1: Rebounding percentage and I think that that is going to 831 00:44:14,400 --> 00:44:17,280 be an advantage against the University of Kansas as well. 832 00:44:17,440 --> 00:44:19,639 Now you're gonna say, oh, Kelly, they only have one 833 00:44:19,719 --> 00:44:23,360 quad one opponent and they got their asses kicked by 834 00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:24,800 BYU by thirty one. 835 00:44:25,119 --> 00:44:26,079 Speaker 2: Okay, that's fair. 836 00:44:26,599 --> 00:44:30,039 Speaker 1: I get that that's really the only game we have 837 00:44:30,239 --> 00:44:33,280 to go off of, and that was way back in December. 838 00:44:33,920 --> 00:44:36,920 Speaker 2: But they held it close against two other Big twelve 839 00:44:37,000 --> 00:44:42,360 schools in that same timeframe Colorado, Utah. 840 00:44:43,400 --> 00:44:43,800 Speaker 4: I don't know. 841 00:44:44,079 --> 00:44:46,719 Speaker 1: This Kansas team is kind of limping into March and 842 00:44:47,119 --> 00:44:49,880 fourteen and a half for a team who acts like 843 00:44:49,960 --> 00:44:52,280 they don't want to be there. Darren Peterson's got one 844 00:44:52,320 --> 00:44:55,079 foot out the door for the last six months to 845 00:44:55,199 --> 00:44:58,280 the NBA. One might argue he wants to show off 846 00:44:59,039 --> 00:45:01,599 in this tournament, so be it if he is able 847 00:45:01,679 --> 00:45:03,639 to do so. But I'm going to take the two 848 00:45:03,800 --> 00:45:08,559 touchdowns with Cal Baptists and see if this team can't 849 00:45:08,719 --> 00:45:13,400 keep it just a little bit closer than everyone is expecting. 850 00:45:14,880 --> 00:45:17,639 All right, guys, March Madness edition of bet On It 851 00:45:17,960 --> 00:45:21,960 is under wraps. Thank you guys for hanging out with 852 00:45:22,079 --> 00:45:24,760 us here. Make sure you guys come back for the 853 00:45:24,840 --> 00:45:28,440 next two weeks. We'll be back on Tuesdays, probably have 854 00:45:28,559 --> 00:45:32,440 the show up mid evening for those non insiders. 855 00:45:32,519 --> 00:45:35,920 Speaker 2: Earlier for those who hang out with us as extra 856 00:45:36,119 --> 00:45:40,920 special community friends Kelly Stewart, Here for Yanni, the Greek 857 00:45:41,039 --> 00:45:44,039 Marco DiAngelo until next week. Let's bet on it.