Speaker 1: Happy Saint Patrick's Day here on bet on It. March
madness is upon us less than twenty four hours. I'm
gonna be at the Westgates super Book drinking copious amounts
of green drinks called margaritas, and we're gonna be cheering
our proverbial faces off. We've got a huge show for
you guys today. We're gonna break down those primetime games,
well at least the ones that we think are primetime
that you need to know about. VR is gonna come
in hot with that steam report which dogs are gonna win?
Speaker 2: Outright?
Speaker 1: We've got three double digit ones for you guys this week.
While the Deli may be only on the wager Talk
YouTube channel. For Marco, he's got a trap game for
us here on bet on It. And of course we're
gonna wrap it all up with some best bets, all right,
Kelly Stewart, Marco D'Angelo, the Greek, I haven't seen you guys,
Well that's not true.
Speaker 2: Of course I've seen you guys.
Speaker 1: But I've seen you guys here on bet on It
since the Super Bowl show. Now the madness is here,
and there was a lot to dissect. We did a
selection Sunday show. If you guys missed it over on
the Wager Talking YouTube channel, definitely go.
Speaker 2: Check that outre I'm gonna let you go.
Speaker 1: First eleven seed VCU number six North Carolina.
Speaker 2: Talk to me about this matchup.
Speaker 1: I don't like that you're gonna be on the other side,
and I'm gonna say it's because maybe I spent a
little bit too much money in my Calcutta on Virginian
Commonwealth University.
Speaker 3: I'm going to keep it simple and the viewers that
follow from bed on it. The college football NFL definitely
know what I'm talking about. I follow my power ratings.
They produced number one in profit for college football NFL,
and I was number one in college basketball going into Saturday.
I got buried this last week, got that out of
our system before the dance, which is a good thing.
But setting at number two up over seventy units, so
obviously the production reflects that power ratings do work. And
what I simply do is I provide accounts for groups
that do extremely well move markets, win long term, and
when they come in on a side that I've already
power rated to have value, then I know to put
a little bit more on top and use that as
a premium. Now, I haven't gotten to the window yet
with North Carolina because I'm thinking I may even get
a better number if I wait. I do think the
betting public is going to be on VCU. And when
we're talking March Madness, it's comparable to the Super Bowl.
Thursday and Friday of March Madness especially is comparable to
the Super Bowl. And what I mean by that is
there's so much public money being bet that the sharp
money's being overlooked. Now early in the week, they got
to pay attention to it because the only betters that
are really locking up money five days in advance are
sharp betters, aren't the betting syndicates. So when that's the case,
the market's going to reflect that side. But the biggest
bets form these groups aren't coming in until late Wednesday,
early Thursday, early Friday. That's when the limits are biggest.
That's when the public's knocked somebody's lines out of whack
and added even more value to their side, and they're
able to throw that bet in and not produce problems
for the books because they'll have more than enough tickets
written on the other side. And it's just a beautiful
couple of weeks of opportunities to make money if you're
selective and you pick your spots. With that said, here's
why I like North Carolina. Now they're rated. They're ranked
twenty first in the AP pole. Coaches Poe call it
what you will. I have them as the twenty third
best team in the country. So we're very close as
far as our ratings go. Where the disagreement is in
the VCU side. This is a fight on VCU more
than the bet on North Carolina. Here's what I mean.
VCU is twenty seven and seven overall. All right, they've
had the one hundred and third toughest strength of schedule,
so one hundred and two teams had a tougher schedule
than they did. And yet offensively they're not in the
top sixty. Defensively, they're not in the top sixty. They're
exactly their sixtieth defensively, sixty fourth offensively in efficiency, and
that's against the one hundredth and third toughest schedule. Now
you're facing the North Carolina team which had the fiftieth
toughest schedule, again not the toughest, but a lot tougher
than VCU, and they produced an offense that's top twenty five.
They produced a defense that's in the top forty. So
with a tougher strength of schedule, I have the better offense.
I have the better defense going in, so both sides
of the ball, I have the better team, and they've
done so. They're data at least against a better schedule,
and they've even outperformed the betting market going nineteen and
thirteen compared to the VCU, who is five hundred ats.
I think this is an auto bet on North Carolina
at anything less than minus three or better. I think
it's the right side a money line it one fifty
or better. I also think it's a good pet six
out of ten times easily plus TV. I think they
win this game again. I like North Carolina. Haven't made
it a premium play yet, but power rating wise, it
lines up offensively and defensively the way they match up
at least who has the edge statistically, so it all
points to UNC for more. Lay the points, Lay the points.
Speaker 1: Ugh, if my Calcutta team hears that, they're going to
be very mad at me, that's okay.
Speaker 2: We've got some other ones.
Speaker 3: That I've been wrong. I've been wrong before, Kay I've
been wrong a lot. Don't worry about that.
Speaker 4: All right.
Speaker 1: Number nine Saint Louis another team that we drafted yesterday
versus number eight Georgia. Take me home, Marco, tell me,
tell me that Saint Louis is going to win this
basketball game.
Speaker 5: Well, Kelly, when you look at this one, the first
glance is gonna be you see an Atlantic ten school
playing an SEC powerhouse conference team and the lines just
two and a half. Isn't that basically picked the money?
And the knee jerk reaction is We're gonna grab Georgia
from the big name conference.
Speaker 4: It's, you know, just too easy for me to go
that way.
Speaker 5: But if you look deeper at this Saint Louis team,
they only got five losses all season, and I can
make an excuse for them in all five of those losses.
They first loss of the season was early in the season.
It was in a Thanksgiving tournament, in the second of
back to back games they lost by one point to Stanford. Okay,
that was early in the season. They didn't suffer their
second loss until February seventeen. That was a loss at
Rhode Island. But it's got to be noted that that
game came the game before they had a big TV
game on a Friday night against second place Virginia Commonwealth.
Speaker 4: That was a big game, a.
Speaker 5: Friday night spotlight game on TV. They got caught looking
ahead in my opinion. And when did their third loss
come the game after the VCU showdown when they thumped
VCU on TV, they were filling fat and sassy. Yeah,
we can't have a bet on It show without me
throwing out of fat and sassey there. So I'm looking
at this team. They made it all the way to
the semi finals. They lost by one point to Dayton
in the semi finals, but if you look at the
box score in that game for one point loss, there
was one huge outlier in that game, and it was
the difference in the game. Dayton went to the foul
line twenty nine times where Saint Louis only went to
the line seventeen. That was the difference in the game
and they still only lost by one. I think they
can hang around. Yes, Georgia can put up points, but
they also give up points. And I like this Saint
Louis defense twenty seven and five straight up this for
the year, And like I said, I can make an
excuse for all five of their losses. I'm gonna go ahead,
take the better defensive team getting points. You know that's
a mantra.
Speaker 3: I love.
Speaker 5: We're gonna go ahead and take Saint Louis And can
we even really call it an upset? Is just a
two and a half point underdog. I'll go ahead and
take Saint Louis here against Georgia.
Speaker 1: All right, I'm also going to take a small underdog here.
That's kind why I wanted to go over these primetime games.
Some of these coin flip games, if you will, can
be kind of really hard to dissect. So I'm gonna
take ten seed Miszoo one and a half point underdog
versus seven seed Miami.
Speaker 2: Did you guys watch the selection Sunday show.
Speaker 1: If you did, then you knew we just absolutely dragged
the ACC And that's because they really had a down
year outside of the Duke Blue Devils. I'm not high
on this Miami basketball program this year. I didn't really
think there was a lot to love about them. Now
I know, Marco just said some nice things about the SEC,
and that's normally what I do, the opposite of I
don't say nice things about them getting ten teams in,
but this is a really solid Missouri team. They are
the third tallest team in college basketball, and they also
have an offensive effective field goal percentage in the top
thirty in the country. I really think Maszoo as a
ten seed was my biggest shock on Sunday.
Speaker 2: We're sitting here watching it and I was like, a
ten seed.
Speaker 1: I knew we're going to see a lot of SEC
teams get in, but that one was rather shocking to me,
to say the least. Now, again, back to this Miami team,
I don't think there's a lot to love about them
as a whole. And I think the reality is is
we're going to see people rush to the window and say, well,
they're twenty.
Speaker 2: Five and eight on the season. They play in the ACC,
and so A plus B equals C and that's not
a team that I just want to back here. This
is a team that looked decent down.
Speaker 1: The stretch, covering five of their last seven games, but
they had an early exit there in the ACC tournament,
right they end up losing to Virginia in just awful
fashion after beating Louisville again. This is a team that
on paper looks good but they have a couple of
red flags, one of the worst free throw shooting teams
in the country, and those are not teams that I
want to back here down the stretch in March. So
give me the Missouri Tigers plus one and a half
for my TV game here on bet on It VR.
Steam report has been really great. I have a lot
of friends who have subscribed to a VR. Explain everybody
what they get from your steam sheet every single day
over on wager Talk and kind of give them a
snippet of what you're seeing so.
Speaker 2: Far here in March.
Speaker 3: Yes, I've made it a goal to lower my volume
of premium plays to subscribers so that they're able to
follow exactly what I'm doing a lot easier and their
bank row could handle it. The swings a lot easier
with lower volume. But I have access to so much
information because I provide these accounts that I take a
percentage job, and those are bets that I'm not placing
them personally myself, but I have money on them. So
I'm able to share that information by providing the steam
sheet every day, and I put those plays on there
that I didn't release as premium plays but that are
being bet by these betting syndicates that I work with,
and I have action on it, so obviously I wanted
to win. It's not like I'm just sharing, Okay, this
was Steam, that was Steam that was steamed. No, these
are bets that actually have money on That's what I'm
putting in there. They're not opinions, they're not leans, they're
not free picks. These are actually bets that we place.
But again, I can only I'm only going to release
so much as premium selection and as the strongest because
if you've gotten the Steam sheet, then you see the
volume that these guys bet, and if you've provided accounts
and we partner it up, then you know that's exactly
what it looks like, fifty sixty bets on some Saturdays.
And I share all of that, even stuff that I
get from other movers who you know, move for groups
that I don't have access to, because then I'm able
to confirm their stuff and perfect example, the Steam sheets
up today, it's for five dollars because it's Tuesday, and
what's in there is college basketball moves for tonight, College Basketball,
Steam for Thursday for Friday, NBA for tonight, HL for
tonight I've put college baseball in there, I put NHL
in there, I put soccer tennis, like all that goal
that I get throughout the day, regardless of what it is.
I put it in there for subscribers to have access to,
or anyone that buys the daily Steam sheet. So it's
just a daily I don't even know what to call
it package that provides a ton of actionable.
Speaker 2: How much is it VR? So if somebody wants to nineteen.
Speaker 3: Dollars and comes with a premium play, so I only
put like a four percent in there, so it would
have been twenty five bucks anyway, but we just give
them the premium play and they get all that information.
Speaker 1: Oh okay, so if you're already a premium subscriber, you're
getting it anyway. I was thinking like I would call
it maybe like a newsletter.
Speaker 3: If you will, Yes, that's perfect. And if you're if
you're like, if you're betting this tournament prior to Thursday,
you're gonna want to know what groups are legit Like today,
the sheet has a bunch of moves on there, like
it's gold. If you're handicapping, it's gold. If you're handicapping
your own stuff for sure, you say that on.
Speaker 1: Last call, and I think that makes a lot of
sense if you like to do your own handicapping and
want to qualify what you're already seeing, and or maybe
it's going to keep you off of a couple of things.
You and I've talked about that several times on last
call in regards to the sharp information that I get,
all right, give everybody a little snippet of the steam.
I know it's early in the week. We have forty
eight hours until the game stip off, but I'm genuinely
curious to see what the sharp groups have played so far.
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's talk about first one Wednesday, because I don't
know what times today will be. Oh so Miami, Ohio.
They took the plus eight and a half on Miami
and the eight took that out also against SMU. Then Thursday,
they've already bet three favorites Vandy minus eleven, Illinois minus
twenty two, Gonzaga minus nineteen. Now, be cautious, because I
spoke about this earlier. A lot of the legit biggest
positions come very late. More and more, as the markets
have become more efficient, it seems like more and more
of the biggest moves come in late, so pay attention
to a lot of the later moves. Friday seven fifty six,
Virginia minus evenventeen and a half, seven to sixty one,
Santa Clara plus four and a half, seven seventy one,
Utah State minus one and a half, seven forty nine,
UCF plus the seven and seven sixty Perdue plus minus
twenty three and a half. Now, if someone comes in
later two days later and they bet the other side,
whether it's that group or not, I'll go back in
that steamsheet. I'll let it be known and say, hey,
this is a different group they bet the other side,
or this group that actually bet that is now coming
in on the other side, so it looks like they
dummied it up. So I'll always follow through because again,
a lot of this stuff you will see take back later,
especially on these tournament games, once the public moves some
of these lines, like Gonzaga minus nineteen. If Gonzaga gets
to twenty two, let's say twenty two and a half,
rest ashore, they're coming in and taking the dog later
at plus. So uh, There's there'll be a lot of
that going on with the tournament because the public's going
to move so many of these lines once they start firing.
Speaker 1: All right, let's get into some of those barking dogs.
My favorite segment during bookball season. And I'm pretty happy
we have a lot of double digit dogs that I'm
salivating over.
Speaker 2: The problem is Marco. I'm a little discouraged.
Speaker 1: Because last year, if you were betting money line underdogs,
you got absolutely crushed. So we each Doug really deep
to try to find a dog that has a shot
to went out right. Obviously we like them against the spread.
Give me a dog, Marco that you think is worth
a we'll extra on that money line.
Speaker 4: Yeah, Kelly.
Speaker 5: And last year was Chalk City, which wasn't good for
the books, and it had talked with the station sportsbook
director yesterday, Check Esposito, and he alluded to that was
one of the first worst opening rounds the two days
for the books in a long time. We didn't see
those And is that going to be a trend moving
forward now with you know, the rich getting richer, you know,
because of nil money, We'll see. I never like to
overreact to a one year sample size, but what I
am gonna do is stay with what always works, and
I'm looking at this one. We've got a five to
twelve matchup. This is the most popular where we have
seen the underdogs, you know, make some noise. But I've
got more than that than just looking at the seeds.
You're looking at a Vanderbilt team that really had a
remarkable end of the season. If you look at the
final four games or the season, what they did really
has their stock at the highest point of the season.
You look at the last game of the regular season,
they went on the road and beat their arch rival
Big Brother Tennessee at Tennessee. That was a huge win.
Speaker 4: What do they do.
Speaker 5: They come right back in the next game. Who do
they get in the first round of the SEC Tournament. Yeah,
they get Tennessee again. This time it's not on their
home floor, but it is in their home city. It
was in Nashville with the Bridgestone Arena, where Nashville is
home to Vanderbilt. They pulled another big victory over Big Brother.
So you would think, okay, right there, now, they're fat
and sassy, They're gonna come up flat after that.
Speaker 4: No they didn't.
Speaker 5: They pulled off the biggest shocker I think of the tournament,
just demolishing Florida in the next game. Everybody had Florida.
Any expert you talk to Talking Head had Florida is
playing the best ball in the country right now heading
into the tournament, and they got waxed in that game. Well,
they finally ran out of gas when they got to
the championship game against Arkansas, and that was a spot
where you know, they wanted that game in front of
the home fans. I think there's gonna be a carryover
hangover wise for Vanderbilt, and because of that run, you're
laying a premium. Want Vanderbilt, Well that's just fine. I
want the premium because I'm taking the dog. McNee State
is a team that's won ten in a row, fourteen
of their last fifteen. As they said, you're getting the
benefit of an inflated number because you've got, you know,
a no name you know in McNee State from a
smaller conference, playing powerhouse SEC conference team that's looked very good.
Let's go ahead take McNee State. Let's hope it reverts
back to what we've seen so many years in the
first round where these dogs sneak in under the number.
I think this one's going to be a lot closer
than people think. I'm grabbing the eleven and a half
with McNee state. Kelly, Honestly, I see this kind of
as a three to five point game either way, sprinkle here.
McNee State is capable of pulling the upset.
Speaker 2: I'm here for it.
Speaker 1: I'm here for all of the madness, and it will
be absolute, utter madness if this team wins out right,
VR is one happening, Mark, and I again Mark, when
I come in with nice double digit underdogs and VR
gives us one, that's three touchdown and a field goal
underdog twenty.
Speaker 3: More twenty four.
Speaker 4: Here's why the truth.
Speaker 3: I keep it real because we have the best supporters
for this show by far. I just love going by
just to read the comments afterwards. With that said, I
haven't gotten to the window. I know you guys love
hearing that yet with a dog. In fact, I've only
released a four percent for Thursday and a four percent
for Tuesday nights playing game. I'm staying selective because we're
gonna crush these next few weeks. The dog will pop up.
It just hasn't been clear yet, but there is one
that I'm looking at that's definitely getting more points than
they should based on power ratings and then I think
the matchup lines up nicely as well. And I'm talking
about the Idaho Vandals getting twenty four plus points against Houston. Now,
you guys know, well, I've been high on Houston all season.
I've had them in the top five. I have him
fifth rank now currently I think that's where the AP
finally finished up with them fifth. So we agree there.
It's the Idaho side that I think is being a
little undervalued here. Number one, I get it week conference
week strength of schedule. That's obvious. They've played the two
hundred and thirteenth toughest strength of schedule compared to the
twenty first toughest strength of schedule for Houston.
Speaker 4: With all that said, Houston's.
Speaker 3: Been so impressive on the defensive side of the ball.
With that toughest strength of schedule, you're number one defensively.
So Idaho's probably going to have some trouble putting up
a lot of points. But luckily for Idaho, Houston's not
an offensive jugger, not by any stretch of the imagination.
In fact, that's the reason they're not going to win
the NCAA Championship, probably because their offense isn't going to
be able to get them over that hump, because they're
barely in the top fifty offensively, and even though they're
not jumping off the page, statistically, they are better on
the defensive side of the ball than they are on
the offensive side of the ball, at least that's what
all the data shows. So they have. The strength for
his team is their defense, while the weakness for Houston
is their offense. That bodes well when you have to
cover almost a thirty points spread for the Dog. And
then when I look at Iaho, they just haven't been
blown out. Like I said, their defense is their strength,
and they've kept them in the games where they haven't
lost a single game I believe by more than fifteen
points or maybe one, and that was it. So they
have been able to keep them close. I think they're
able to do that here. I think Houston is thinking
Final four or bust. I don't think they really care
about how badly they beat Idaho. I think all they
got to do is get past Idaho. And the key
once you're ahead by fifteen to twenty twenty five points
is health. Get your guys, keep your guys healthy, don't
give them too much minutes and I get it Houston's
backups would be starting at Idaho. I understand that, but
still I still think Idaho starters will have a better
shot at covering against the backups of Houston late than
Houston pulling away and winning by thirty. So take Idaho
to keep another game close. They won't be able to win,
but they will put a scare in Houston, at least
in the first half before the cream rises to the
top and the size and speed and athleticism starts to
take over. But they'll keep it within twenty four. So
I like Idaho as the dog.
Speaker 2: All right? Do you think they're worth a little money line? Sprinkle?
Speaker 3: I did take them in the count to spring. I
love the question, thank you, because I forgot to say
that there won't be a dog that I bet in
this tournament that I don't have some risk on the
money line?
Speaker 2: Can you can you give me like a percentage?
Speaker 3: Yes?
Speaker 2: Yes, So let's just face math.
Speaker 1: Let's say you have one hundred and ten dollars plus
to win one hundred and plus twenty four. How much
would you have five bucks on the money line on.
Speaker 3: A twenty a twenty plus point line. I'd probably put
Kelly maybe like two percent at the most on the
money line. If I'm getting between that ten points and
twenty points, I'll put up to five percent on the
money line. But if I'm getting ten points or less
I'm put in the tournament, I'm putting ten percent of
my money on the on the money line. So meaning
if I take a plus eight and a half and
i have one hundred and ten to win, I'm gonna
bet ninety nine to win ninety on plus eight and
a half, and I'm gonna put that other ten on
the money line at plus two whatever. Absolutely, it's tournament
time and this is where you do see those live
dogs get the ws and not just keep it close.
So in those spreads under ten, I'm not afraid to
put ten percent of my bet size on the money line,
knowing that when the dust settles, I'll cash enough of
those where it'll be the ROI will be higher because
I did that than not doing it.
Speaker 2: Okay, thank you for that answer.
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We've got a special treat just for you guys.
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Speaker 4: Now.
Speaker 1: If you guys are thinking I'm only giving out this
game because Aiden Holloway got arrested the other day, you're
dead wrong. We talked about this game on Sunday where
I said, Hey, don't be surprised this clash of styles
between Hofstra and Alabama couldn't result in a first round upset.
Speaker 2: YEP, that's right.
Speaker 1: Hofstro one of the slowest adjusted tempo teams, one of
the slowest average possession link teams. Versus Bama that is
absolutely one of the fastest rings in the top five
in adjusted tempo rings in the top ten and possession link.
Here's a couple of things Alabama doesn't do. They don't
turn the ball over, but they don't get blocks, they
don't get boards.
Speaker 2: Look for this hops hawkster team to beat them down low.
Speaker 1: They have one of the best two point percentage defenses
in the country top three over there on Ken Pomp
and I will say this as well. You want to
keep an eye on teams such as Hofstra that, like
Marco said, versus the big Bad SEC.
Speaker 2: When you have a team that a.
Speaker 1: Lot of people haven't heard of from the Coastal Athletic Conference,
I believe that used to be the Colonial but they
changed it on me, so I got to keep up
on things like that.
Speaker 2: Hafstra has been a solid team. Now.
Speaker 1: They have one Quad loss this year, but it was
to UCF and it was only by four, and there
are two and two against Quad two opponents. They're currently
on a seven game win streak, eleven and two in
their last twelve games. So keep an eye here on
this team that was a twelve and a half point underdog,
now down to eleven and a half due to no
Aiden Holloway. I think they have a real shot to
win this out right. Like VR said, don't forget to
sprinkle just a little bit on that money line. Marco di'angelo,
your Deli just absolutely crushed it during basketball season. But
unfortunately we don't really have a Deli spot during March Madness.
It doesn't really work that way. There's not a sandwich
of sorts. So you have a trap game for us
this week?
Speaker 4: We do, and Kelly one thing here before we leave
the dogs segment.
Speaker 5: You know, all three of us had double digit dogs,
and I think I don't know if Ace has him nearby,
but I think we should show the size of the dogs.
Speaker 4: You know, you always say you like the big dogs. Kelly,
look at this guy.
Speaker 5: I love I love that.
Speaker 4: Dog.
Speaker 2: Oh good grief. Listen, I just adopted a like me.
Speaker 3: I got a dog.
Speaker 2: He doesn't even like me.
Speaker 3: He likes Brett, so he loves me. This guy loves
me to death.
Speaker 2: That has made my day. Great call by Marco. Uh,
Marco di'angelo, before you get into your trap game, UH,
let me know what you've got going on over at
wager talk dot com.
Speaker 5: Well, it's a sight wide special going on, and you
got to take advantage of the day you sign up.
Speaker 4: That's the day you start. March Madness Bonanza.
Speaker 5: Get every play through college basketball, all the tournaments, n
it the Big Dance, Get everything, including five percent plays
and remember those five percent play sell for thirty five
dollars by themselves. You'll get everything through the championship game
for just one hundred and forty nine dollars. Pick your
favorite kapper, pick a couple of them. Have a couple
guys in your arsenal to attack the march madness that
we're about to.
Speaker 4: Begin, and we'll have some plays up for you.
Speaker 5: I'll have a five percent somewhere in here, probably in
the first or second round this week as we move on.
Speaker 4: And those have been very good to us.
Speaker 5: You know, the record on those five percent place forty
three in twenty three over the last two plus years
with those plays, So check it out, get your favorite capper.
Highly recommend picking up myself in Ace. That's a great
one two punch. You watch us every week here on
bed on It, and as Kelly said, the Deli will
be open.
Speaker 4: What we're gonna do this.
Speaker 5: Week is obviously because we can cover the Thursday and
Friday games for you here on bed on It.
Speaker 4: We can't cover the.
Speaker 5: Saturday games yet because we don't know who's gonna be playing. Well,
that result will be after Thursday we'll know who's playing Saturday.
I'll open the Delhi up and preview a few games
for you on the Saturday card, so look for that
late Friday afternoon. Covering the Saturday card, I'll have a
few plays for you in the Delhi and the Delhi
has hit sixty percent this year Deli. And now, speaking
of that trap game that I was talking about, this one, boy,
I tell you what you talk about a foul smell
coming out of the Delhi.
Speaker 4: When I saw this line, I had to go, what
is that?
Speaker 5: You got a Mountain West Conference team as a favorite
over a Big East team and they're the worst seed.
Villanova's the number eight seed, Utah States the number nine seed. Well,
I'll tell you, Kelly. We know the history of the
Mountain West Conference in the Big Dance. It's not been good.
Other than the fact that San Diego State a few
years ago had that magical run to the championship game,
it has been a night for teams out of the
Mountain West Conference. But why do I think that's gonna
be different this year? Well, there's only one team that
made it out of the Mountain West Conference to the
Big Dance this year. Usually you'll see you two or
three teams, sometimes even sneak four in and then they
just got blasted because they were just mediocre. There was
one team that was on top of this conference all
year and that was Utah State. They were the best
team during the regular season, they were the best team
during the tournament. They rolled through the tournament to get
the conference championship, and I am going to ride them here. Villanova, Yeah,
they're the name, they're the conference, but I gotta be
honest with you, the big East outside of Connecticut in
Saint John's really didn't impress me. And the fact that
this line is Villanova an underdog screams to me that
the right side is Utah State. And when you look
at this, there's a reason we've got big, shiny casinos
here in Las Vegas. Okay, it's not because they make
mistakes and the Republic is winning.
Speaker 4: It's not that.
Speaker 5: Okay, the books win and they'll tell you that. You
can ask Case. He says all the time, over ninety
percent of sports betters lose, and I'm talking well over
ninety percent. Here is a situation where you look at this.
You look at the people that set the seatings. They
sit in a room, they're watching games, they're making the rankings,
they're making the seatings. Do you want to back them
or do you want to back the people that sit
in Las Vegas behind the counters and take real bets
and set the numbers. I'm always going to side with
the book makers over somebody setting a poll or seating,
and they're telling me who the better team is, and
I agree with them, it's Utah State. I'm not gonna
fall for the trap of betting a good looking underdog
from a big conference.
Speaker 4: Not doing it.
Speaker 5: We're going with Utah State. We're going to back the
Mountain West Conference. And you'll hear the stat a gazillion
times over the next two days of how bad the
Mountain West Conference has been in the big dance. There's
only one team that's going to be a sample size
of one this year. UTA State advances.
Speaker 2: All right, Well, Marco took the words right out of
my mouth because he probably saw the script and knew
I was going to come in.
Speaker 4: Hot with how I didn't give the number. I left
it for you, Kelly. I knew that, and now I.
Speaker 2: Closed out acts. Way to go, Kelly, Let's see if
I still have it open. Nope, it's Hubert too. Then
I got Hubert Davis going nine and two against Vco.
Of course, that's what pops up right now. All right,
let's hear what your stat is, Marco.
Speaker 4: Uh, the stat is that you put in the script
and didn't read. So say, I got your back, Kelly,
it's all good.
Speaker 2: You got thrown off like Marco already touched on it.
Speaker 5: Yeah, last twenty years man. Since two thousand and five,
the Mountain West Conference is just fifteen and thirty four
against the spread and as a nine seed or better,
just three and fourteen against the spread. So we're bucking
some history there. But you know what, Utah State wasn't
in any of those numbers.
Speaker 4: Let's go ahead. This is a sample size this year.
Speaker 5: You got to treat each game on its own basis
and what you have this year, and Villanova is down,
Utah State is up.
Speaker 4: I'm taking them all right.
Speaker 2: If you guys are enjoying the show, I need you
to take a pause, make sure you hit that thumbs
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Speaker 1: There are almost two hundred and forty two thousand other
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Speaker 2: And if you don't like us, or you do throw
a comment or two into the comment section. That's my
new favorite thing.
Speaker 1: Marco doesn't know that, but that's like what I've been
doing in my side time between shows is being in
the comments section. And I'm sure you guys can tell
by the comments that it's no longer the person who
was doing it. There's a lot of smart assiness in
there now and that would be coming from me. So
let's get into these best bets for you guys for
the first round here Thursday and Friday.
Speaker 2: VR. You and I are an agreement on this one.
Speaker 1: I do not understand the love for the akron Zips
at this point in time. When it came out nine
and a half, I was like, all right, talk to
me here. I know Obi Toppin got hurt about a.
Speaker 2: Month and a half ago. I know Texas Tech has
kind of been floundering here into March, but boy, does
this seem cheap to take the Red Raiders.
Speaker 3: Indeed, and you're getting a bet that I did get
to the window with already. This was the four percent
I sent out for the tournament, and I'm going to
give you the reasoning why. Again. I've power rated every
side in total, so I have a prediction for the
point spread and the total in every single matchup. And again,
I'm gonna repeat it because it matters. Production matters. And
right now, sitting at number two in college basketball profit
overall over seventy units after finishing number one in college
football using the same approach, NFL always this same exact approach.
And here's what stuck out to me. I wasn't surprised
to see the actor money come in immediately at minus nine.
Here's why, because of the top in situation that you
touched on. Having to replace that production obviously was going
to be difficult because it happened in February and March
Madness was just around the corner, so they didn't have
much time to recover. Twenty one point eight points per game,
ten point eight rebounds, and he shot fifty five percent
from the floor. Okay, you're not going to replace that instantly,
but value of replacement players one of the highest correlations
to pick and winners. And they have that replacement players,
not that to someone's going to step in and produce that,
but the team to produce that, they have the players
intact to do so. So here's the bottom line with
this matchup, power rating wise, Texas Tech should be about
a ten ten and a half point favorite. When I
saw the line come out nine or so, it wasn't touchable.
At that point. I had about, you know, a point
point and a half edge at the most. But it
was that move down because of the injury when the
limits were low that brought it down to minus seven
that gave me a big enough edge line wise, about
a three and a half point based on my number
to fire. And that's why I sent out a four
percent to subscribers. Now when I look at the screen,
it's at minus eight. So we did our job. We
got in, we got a little bit of closing line value.
The market respected that minus seven bet. It's now sitting
at minus eight. Why am I still using it for
this show? Because it still qualifies as the best bet
at eight. Again, I have this one, and I'm being generous.
That's after shading for the top end injury, and I
still have them closer to eleven than ten. Texas Tech
winning this game, so even at eight still qualifies for
a best bet. It's just not even closed real quickly.
Texas Tech had the eighth toughest schedule in off college basketball,
so a top ten tough schedule and their top twenty
five in offense and top twenty five in defense. So
there's balanced as it comes heading into this tournament. Flip
side of that coin, anchoring one hundred and ninety third
toughest strength of schedule, so almost two hundred all right,
And with that tough strength of schedule, that easy strength
of schedule, they had the one hundred and seventy fifth
best defense. This offensive Texas Tech, They're not gonna have
problems scoring on Acron at all. And offensively, Akron just
cracked the top fifty in efficiency and now going up
against the top twenty five defense, they're gonna have trouble scoring.
So Texas Tech will do the scoring. They won't have
trouble stopping Acron. This seven to eight, ten point lead'll
turn in the seventeen to twenty in the second half,
and they easily pull away. Texas Tech wins this game
by double digits. It's a gift. It's a gift at
minus eight. So yeah, I'm laying the chalk here, Keil, all.
Speaker 2: Right, laying the chalk. Marco. I don't know what to
make of this next game. I know that Louisville has
not been great against the spread.
Speaker 1: But boy, on Sunday when we were doing the live show,
immediately as soon as that side of the bracket came out,
USF USF, USF, USF, and I'm like, I just watched
USF and they just cash for me against Wichita State.
I thought, maybe they're getting a little bit too much love.
But maybe our wager Talk audience is sharper than I
give them credit for. Tell me why you like the
USF Bulls and do you think they are worth a
money line?
Speaker 5: Sprinkle absolutely, Kelly. This is a team's playing the best
ball of the season right now. They've won eleven in
a row. They've gone eight and three against the spread
during that eleven game winning streak, signaling that the market
hasn't caught up to them yet. And this is another
matchup where we're going to talk about the public's gonna
dismiss South Florida's run because they play in, you know,
a lesser conference. They play in the American Conference, which
obviously is not considered a powerhouse compared to Louisville coming
out of the Mighty ACC. But the fact is, and
you already alluded to it, the ACC in my opinion
this year as a whole was down. You know, yes,
Duke one of the best teams in the country, there's
no question about that. But I think there was a
big drop off after due and especially when you got
to the bottom half of the conference. So I'm not
that impressed with Louisville. They've been inconsistent most of the year.
And when you look at this, you also have another
angle that I like, You've got a ranked team Louisville,
you know, it's just barely in the top twenty five
against you know, an unranked team.
Speaker 4: You know, that's an angle.
Speaker 5: You know, we talk about it in football when you
can get you know, a team under you know, under
a touchdown underdog and their unranked playing a ranked team,
that's always something that I'm going to look at. Well,
same thing here. You're looking at a point spread of
only five and a half. Looks a little bit easy
maybe to take that powerhouse team. And if you've watched
bet on It for any amount of time, you've heard
me say gazillion times, if I can get the better
defensive team getting points, I'm generally going to be lining
up on that side. And South Florida plays defense. They
play a tenacious defense. They've held eight of their last
ten opponents to under forty percent shooting from the field.
They've held six of the last seven opponents to sixty
six or fewer points. This one, I think is gonna
go right down to the wire. I think South Flora
can dictate the tempo in this game, and we get
a game in the sixties and I'm getting five and
a half. Yeah, that's where I'm gonna line up. Give
me South Florida plus the points, and let's call it
first upset of the tournament. Because this one starts early
on Thursday.
Speaker 4: Let's get it. Let's get it into books and start
things off on the right foot.
Speaker 2: All right, I do agree with you, Marco on USF.
Speaker 1: I do not trust this Louisville team. And you know
what other team I don't trust the University of Kansas.
They have had a myriad of issues throughout this basketball
season and it all stems from.
Speaker 2: One guy named Darren Peterson and.
Speaker 1: Not allowing Bill Bill self coach, to have any power
over his locker room. And after he checked himself out
of that game there in mid January, things started to unravel.
Loss at Iowa State, loss at home and ugly loss
at home to Cincinnati, Arizona Arizona State road trip out west,
and then fine, they got to beat up on my
Wildcats there on that last Saturday home game. But what
did they do that was impressive in the Big twelve tournament.
Not a damn thing. They get past TCU, no cover,
and then just get absolutely throttled by Houston. They look
like they didn't even.
Speaker 2: Want to be there.
Speaker 1: Now, I will say this, defensively, KU is a pretty
solid team outside of capitalizing off those defensive turnovers. But
this cal Baptist team has kind of been a we'll
call it surprising if you will. I know, I'm not
supposed to know anything about cal Baptist, but I've got
a couple cheat sheets and I had to dig a
little deep on this one because fourteen and a half
points seems pretty steep. Cal Baptists one of the best
three point field goal percentages. Defensively, the only team that's
better Northern Iowa.
Speaker 2: So look at their.
Speaker 1: Rebounding percentage and I think that that is going to
be an advantage against the University of Kansas as well.
Now you're gonna say, oh, Kelly, they only have one
quad one opponent and they got their asses kicked by
BYU by thirty one.
Speaker 2: Okay, that's fair.
Speaker 1: I get that that's really the only game we have
to go off of, and that was way back in December.
Speaker 2: But they held it close against two other Big twelve
schools in that same timeframe Colorado, Utah.
Speaker 4: I don't know.
Speaker 1: This Kansas team is kind of limping into March and
fourteen and a half for a team who acts like
they don't want to be there. Darren Peterson's got one
foot out the door for the last six months to
the NBA. One might argue he wants to show off
in this tournament, so be it if he is able
to do so. But I'm going to take the two
touchdowns with Cal Baptists and see if this team can't
keep it just a little bit closer than everyone is expecting.
All right, guys, March Madness edition of bet On It
is under wraps. Thank you guys for hanging out with
us here. Make sure you guys come back for the
next two weeks. We'll be back on Tuesdays, probably have
the show up mid evening for those non insiders.
Speaker 2: Earlier for those who hang out with us as extra
special community friends Kelly Stewart, Here for Yanni, the Greek
Marco DiAngelo until next week. Let's bet on it.