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Speaker 1: And Hello, Welcome one and all to the Big Podcast

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on this Friday today, it's the twentieth day of February,

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year of our Ward, twenty twenty six. My name is

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Tom Sullivan. And lo and behold, we finally have a

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tariff decision from the Supreme Court. We've been waiting and

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waiting and waiting for this, and this has been this

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has been a huge issue for the president long before

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he was president. You go back forty years and find

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him talking to Oprah Winfrey about his complete that other

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countries are charging us tariffs and we're not charging them

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and it's not equal. And I mean, he's been doing

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it for a long time. Beck, let's you want to

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do a little bit of go back into see what

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he what he used to say. Here's a little bit

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of Donald Trump from many years ago.

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Speaker 2: Without tariffs, this country would be in such trouble right now,

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we're taking in so much money with the tariffs now

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that it's such a pleasure. The word tariff. It's more

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beautiful than love, It's more beautiful than anything. It's the

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most beautiful word. To me, the most beautiful word in

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the dictionary is tariff. And it's my favorite word.

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Speaker 1: He's made it very clear over the years, and he's

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there's a lot he's got a lot of support. But

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conservatives have in general never been in favor of tariffs.

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I have not because history show that it leads to

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all kinds of other economic problems. But rather than do

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an economic class about tariffs here today, we'll get plenty

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of economists and lawyers to talk about that. The president

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was lost in the Supreme Court. I don't want to

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bury the lead. Supreme Court came out and said in

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a vote of six to three that the president cannot

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impose tariffs the way that he's been doing it. The

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decision was one hundred and seventy pages long. The minute

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it was announced, a stock market rallied it's proceeded by

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people like me who don't like tariffs, that it's a

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free market ruling. I am a big free market guy,

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and the president is not. He wants to manipulate, using government,

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the big boot of government to manipulate things like tariffs.

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Not because of of Japan charging US five percent for pencils,

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we will charge them five percent for inc It's he

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gets it causes uncertainty the way he does this, because

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he would wake up one morning and say that country

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may be mad, so I'm going to impose one hundred

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percent tariffs some of them. Then two weeks later, kissing makeup,

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he would take fifty percent of the teriff away. It

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became crazy. So this decision was the fact that the

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president used something called IEPA. AEPA is the acronym for

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the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. It was put together

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in nineteen seventy seven. It was to try to rein

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in presidents on the way that they deal economically with

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foreign countries. This is after Richard Nixon and all the

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business that he went through, so this had been struck down.

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I think it's great for the economy. We have the well,

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the government has collected one hundred and fifty billion. I

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thought it was two hundred and so it's one hundred

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and fifty to two hundred billion dollars that they have collected.

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And now the question is how's that refund going to work?

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Because you have been paying part of what you have

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been purchasing since Liberation Day back on April first. Part

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of what you have been purchasing has been tariffs built

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into the price of whatever it was you bought. So

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are you going to be able to put in a

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refund request. I doubt it. But the importers and the

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large companies that bring products in, they're going to be

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putting in. And there's eight hundred small businesses that have

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already said they are going to claw back because it's

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been killing small businesses. The big the Walmarts of the

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world can can make things happen a lot easier to

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be able to handle the higher tariffs, but small businesses

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they've been they've been getting killed by this. There are

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three hundred and thirty eight court challenges by small businesses

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that have been going after these tariffs, saying this is

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putting me out of business. So the president really, well

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we know this about him. He doesn't he doesn't like

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people to tell him you can't do that.

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Speaker 3: No.

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Speaker 1: He doesn't like the word no. He lashed out at

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the Supreme Court. I mean, I've never seen him this angry.

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It was a written It was in the in the

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press office, press room of the of the White House,

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and they dimmed the lights. It was weird. They dimmed

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the lights and he came out and there was Howard

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Lutnick and some others standing behind him. But he did

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not give his comments. He read from a piece of paper,

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and it sounded to me it was very angry, very angry.

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It sounded to me like the guy who writes most

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of his stuff is Steven Miller. It's very Stephen Miller

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about the fact that he doesn't need Congress, he can

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do this on his own. He went about this to

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do it simple. He's now going. In fact, he announced

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that he's going to lay a ten percent tariff on

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top of all the other tariffs that he's laid out

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there using Section one twenty two, and then he's got

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Section two one, Section three oh one, Section three thirty eight.

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That's all true. There's a number of other federal statutes

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that allow the president, this president or any other president

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the ability to lay tariffs, but they have rules and

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restrictions attached to them, and you have to, in many

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of the cases, either go through Congress or go through

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a court. So it's not like he's he's trying to

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brush it off, like I got all these other things

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I can do and we'll see how that works out.

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But it was he was mad, I mean he was that.

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That speech was full of anger. So it leads again

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to the question for businesses about the uncertainty, and well,

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Neil Gorsich, you find his statement, uh in his he

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was one of the of the six that said, yeah, this,

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you can't do this the way you're doing it. Let

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me just the justices that that dissented were Alito and

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Clarence Thomas and Brett Kavanaugh. They're the one the the

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three that said we're fine with this. This is a

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Neil Gorsich part of his concurring opinion. He said, yes,

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legislating can be hard and take time, and yes it

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can be tempting to bypass Congress when some pressing problem arises,

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but the deliberative nature of the legislative process was the

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whole point of its design. Through that process, the nation

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can tap the combined wisdom of the people's elected representatives,

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not just that of one faction or man. So he

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was basically big slapped to Donald Trump about you're just

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one guy, and you don't get to determine on your

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own what the tariff will be. So let's let's play

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for you some of the some of the reactions that

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came in today. We'll start with Ari Fleischer. Find out

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what his view was.

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Speaker 4: Well, you know, for a year We've heard this argument

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that somehow Americans don't bear the burden of the tariffs

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foreigners are paying them. It's never been true. Terraffs are

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taxes on imports paid for by the importer, a household

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or a firm. In the United States, they write checks

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to Customs and Immigration. There's a narrow, highly improbable world

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in which every foreign producer cuts their price by enough

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to offset the tariff and taxes are prices plus tariffs

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don't go up in the US. That's never been plausible,

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and those studies have ever found anything close to that.

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Americans have paid those tariffs for a year and it's

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been a substantial headwind to the economy, There's no question

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about it. And so to have that tariff relief I

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think is legally appropriate and economically beneficial.

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Speaker 1: Right now, they have been a headwind because of the

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fact that prices are up. And that's why the Feds

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having a hard time getting inflation down to two percent.

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Is you've got prices plus tariffs, and that raises the

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prices of things and it slows down the economy. And

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aris is not alone. Let me pull up this article

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from the Wall Street Journal. This was February thirteenth is

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from the Editorial Board. The headline is your pain. Ninety

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percent of Trump's tariffs, so says the Federal Reserve Board.

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New York Federal Reserve Board is said in their latest

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look at import prices, they do. They've got a whole

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bunch of economists that are studying everything. And the article

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in the Wall Street Journal says, no matter how often

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President Trump insists his tariffs are taxing foreigners to enrich

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the US, economic studies show that Americans are actually paying

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the bill. New York Federal Reserve in an analysis on

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the bank's website for researchers right, nearly ninety percent of

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the tariff's economic burden falls on US firms and consumers.

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And it goes on talking about the first eight months

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of twenty twenty five, ninety four percent of the tariffs

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born by the US. So they are an economic headwin.

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They are a tax. And that is why, more than

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anything else, why the Supreme Court said presidents cannot raise taxes,

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and that's what this is. It is a tax. Congress

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is the only one that can raise taxes. And speaking

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of the Wall Street, General Kimberly Strassel is one of

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the op ed people at the Wall Street Journal, and

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she weighs in with a longer term, a bigger view.

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This is the other thing. Donald Trump gets so mad

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because he thinks it's a personal upfront to him. No,

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it's about him and future presidents. It's about can a

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president that does a president have the power to raise

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taxes all by themselves or in this case, raise tex

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p Here's Kimberly Strassel.

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Speaker 3: Well, look, I mean there's going to be a lot

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of people that are disappointed by this, John no less

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the folks in the White House. But I'm kind of

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looking at this as a big picture perspective, and I

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think some really important things were said here today that

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people can take some consolation in beyond the immediate tariff question.

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I mean, one of this this was a good decision

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on questions of separation of powers, something that this court

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has been very, very focused on. You know, the power

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of the purse is one of Congress's main checks and balances,

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especially against an executive. And I remember when the president

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announces tariff's being very worried about what kind of president

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that might set. We know democratic presidents are even more

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keen to use presidential power I had visions of future

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Democratic presidents saying, Okay, well, I'm going to decline, declare

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an international climate emergency and tariff the heck out of

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people who don't fall in line with climate objectives or

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other such ideas like this. The other thing, just again

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from a big picture perspective, is this destroys I think

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democrats arguments that the court is in the pocket of

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this administration. You know, you had at least two of

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the justices that the President himself appointed to the Supreme

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Court who were in the majority of opinion on this.

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The debates between the justices were all in very good faith,

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I think, on some very important issues of major questions doctrine,

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the extent of a president's foreign powers, statutory readings, and

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non delegation doctrine. There's a lot of heady legal dispute

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going on here, but it goes to show that this

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court is very focused on the law, not on politics.

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Speaker 1: I really liked your point about the fact that that

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could you imagine Joe Biden doing tariffs based upon climate

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policy or wherever it might be. He tried to go there.

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But that's why presidents haven't been doing this is because

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it hasn't. It hasn't been kosher. Let me put it

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that way. Don Bacon, retired Air Force General, Congressman from Nebraska.

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This is his thought.

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Speaker 5: Well, he didn't read Neil Gorsuch's position on this, and

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that was the majority position in the ruling, and that

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is what is now law, unless it gets you changed

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later down the road. I think if he goes ahead

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with his ten percent global tariff, they will be brought

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up for a vote in Congress and it will be defeated.

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It may not have a veto proof majority, but it

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will have a majority that will go against that that

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ten percent global tariff. So I think the President is

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making a mistake here. Again, he's quoting a lot to

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support this from the dissenting position, but that is not law.

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And so I think the ten percent global tariff also

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undermines his argument about these tariff's being reciprocal. Right, This

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is what he was trying to defund the tariffs on,

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and I think a lot of folks like me never

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really believed it. I think he's been a tariff support

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since the nineteen eighties, and I just want to come

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back and tell my fellow Republicans we have opposed tariff

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since World War Two. It's been the conservative position. The

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last president to support tariffs that was a Republican was

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Herbert Hoover, and it exacerbated the depression, the worst depression

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that we ever had. So the conservative position here is

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that tariffs are bad economics, it's bad politics, and we

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should defend that.

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Speaker 1: I have not changed. Well. The lawsuit that started this

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whole thing about tariffs, it's a number of attorney generals

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around the country and mostly Democrats. All of them Democrats

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because no Republican attorney general. They were too afraid to

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go up against Donald Trump's tariffs. But there were over

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one hundred companies, including Costco a lot and they import

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a lot of products. The individuals that brought the case

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Vos Selections versus Trump, supported by the Liberty Justice Center.

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That's a toy store, a toy a toy story. He said,

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I've getting killed because the toys that I sell or

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made some other part of the world. In May of

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twenty twenty five, the Court of International Trade ruled these

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tariffs were unlawful and blocked them. But nobody paid any

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attention to them. So I'm not surprised that they ruled

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the way they did. I thought they were actually going

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to say, all right, you can do reciprocal tariffs. Somebody

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charges us three percent, we can charge them three percent,

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But you can't do these. I'm mad at them, or

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I want to change their behavior. I want to use

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these for foreign policy reasons. Uh huh. You can do

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other things, but you can't use tariffs to create your

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foreign policy. Jonathan Turley, Constitutional law professor George Washington, Well,

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let's get Thury in here.

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Speaker 6: It is indeed, and this is what some of us predicted.

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This was a case where the administration was at a disadvantage.

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AJIPA does not refer to tariffs, and tariffs are a

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big deal under the Constitution. It's a critical form of

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revenue that is left to Congress. And I thought that

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the administration did a terrific job in front of the

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Supreme Court. They could not have argued this case better,

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in my view. But you can't really escape that language.

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And right out of the bat when that oral argument began,

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the Chief Justice John Roberts said, this is a tax,

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and you could almost hear the administration gulping because that's

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not what they wanted the justices to take from their argument,

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but and others clearly view this as a tax that

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rests with Congress. Now there's a lot of runway still

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for the administration. We have to really get into this opinion,

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into some of the weeds to see if it is

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perspective only. But also the administration is other tools in

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its toolbox. It can actually impose tariffs under other statutes.

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So this night is hardly over for the administration when

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it comes to tariffs.

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Speaker 1: Here another constitutional law professor, John You used to be

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a deputy Attorney General. Here's John Yu.

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Speaker 7: This is a major restriction on a president's ability to

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act during times of emergency. There are two questions, is

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there an emergency at all post by the trade deficits,

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and then did Congress give the president the power to

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impose tariffs under the EPI Statute when it said when

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Congress said the president can regulate quote unquote regulate economic

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relations with another country. Notice here in the opinion, the

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Court does not touch the question whether in the national emergency,

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so that part of the president's power is still preserved.

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The part that's been narrowed, of course, as the others

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have said, is the word regulate does not include the

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power to impose a tariff. That doesn't mean the president

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can't do this in the future. There are other trade

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laws which explicitly delegate from Congress to the president the

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ability to post tariffs. The thing that President Trump has

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to do, which he didn't do in these tariffs. Remember

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he did these worldwide at once for all products YEP. Essentially,

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Court is saying you have to go back to the

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driving board, and you have to do it country by country.

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Individual countries have to be shown to be engaged in

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unfair trade practices or have to be shown to be

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a national security threat, and has to be a report

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and it will take President Trump roughly a year if

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he really wants to go forward with the tariffs. Now,

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I'd like Shannon's point a great deal. This might be

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a blessing in disguise because we just had GDP report

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numbers from last year that show the economy significantly slowed.

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Speaker 6: If all the tariffs.

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Speaker 7: That President announced are immediately eliminated and he has to

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take about a year, if he really chooses to do

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it again, has take about a year or to impose

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these tariffs again, they might actually have a positive boost

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on the economy, which could have a very positive effect

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on President Trump and Republicans by the midterm elections.

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Speaker 1: You hear what he just said. He said, if it

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takes the president a year to get this next round

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of tariffs that he wants to do actually up and going,

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that it might actually help the economy and help the

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president in the midterm elections because the tariffs have suppressed

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the economy, and the John used reference. We got our

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numbers out this morning for fourth quarter gross domestic product,

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a shocker one point four percent growth that is much

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slower than had been expected. There's fourth quarter. There was

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a slowdown in consumer spending fourth quarter Christmas shopping. Still,

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there was a slow down in consumer spending growth of

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one point four percent in GDP for the quarter. So

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spending clearly being done by those at the top of

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the income brackets, not by the rest of them. So

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go back to Joe Biden twenty twenty three, GDP two

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point nine, twenty twenty four, Joe Biden two point eight,

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twenty twenty five. When you put all four quarters together,

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two point two, so the economy is slowing. Then you

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look at the tariffs have been in effect since April first,

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and how have the how has the trade deficit gone

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not well. We had a surprise a seventy billion dollars

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trade deficit last week month of December, and that was

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up from fifty five billion that was expected. So the

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trade deficit has gotten worse. The growth in the economy

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has slowed down. The government, you can take the government

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shut down damaged some of that fourth quarter number by

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about one percent. But I'm telling you this. I think

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John You, who's a lawyer but he also knows his economics, obviously,

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is that you get these tariffs out of there, and

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the economy should do better, not worse. And that's why

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the market took off triple digits when the news came

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out that the court shot down the way that the

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president was doing these tariffs. John You referred to something

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about Shannon what she said. Let's play here's Shannon Boreen

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with some of her comments. She's also a lawyer.

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Speaker 8: Well, I think that we just need to think about

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some of the political impact, which you guys have been

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unpacking with our fantastic guests the last few minutes. But

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think about a couple of things here. First of all,

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Democrats have told us incessantly that this court is corrupt,

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that it is in the pocket of President Donald J. Trump,

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that it cannot be trusted, that it needs to be

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term limited, that it needs to be expanded. Today we're

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getting all of these pressers, the press releases, the statements

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on the you know in Washington, of people saying Democrats

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saying the Court got this right. So does it quiet

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at all any of this political language that has been

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about modifying the Court, these efforts that Democrats say, you know,

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if they retake the House and Senate, that they may

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make moves to modify the Court as we now know it.

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So if that happens, we should remember today where they

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are in full praise of the Court and very happy

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about what it's done. There's also the political impact on

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the GOP side. This has been mentioned a little bit

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that we all know members that we've talked to on

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the GOP side of the aisle who are silently, quietly

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breathing a sigh of relief. There have been Republicans on

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Capitol Hill who have voted against some of the president's tariffs.

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They think it's actually hurt the economy and hurts their

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ability to go out and make the argument that this

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president is working to make things more affordable. So some

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of them quietly happy that this will maybe reset the

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markets and some of what we're seeing in our economic data.

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And listen, the President can now say, you know, it's

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a Supreme Court's fault. I tried, these terroriffs were working.

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It's about the justices. And then pivot to these other

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options we know he has for other tariffs.

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Speaker 1: Happen with all that, I like, Shannon, But so if

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you take away the tariffs, do you think the companies

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are going to lower their prices by the amount of

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the terriffs they were paying. I don't think so. I

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think they'll keep the prices where they were. They'll just

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make more money. They're thrilled, but I don't see how

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this is going to actually make things more affordable. The

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tariffs do not make things more affordable. They make things

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more expensive. But once you get rid of the tariff,

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you think companies are going to lower the price. I

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don't think so. All right. The other big item that

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we're watching as we head into this weekend is about

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Iran and are we going to go to war with

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Iran or not. Here is Iran's foreign minister talking about

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the fact that they promise they double triple promise that

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they if they get a nuclear vision nuclear power, that

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they'll only use it for peaceful reasons.

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Speaker 4: The US side has not asked for zero investments. What

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you are now talking about is how to make sure

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that Iran's nuclear program, including enrichment, is peaceful and will

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remain peaceful forever.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, if it was hard to hear, he said, yeah,

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we want to enrich the uranium, but only for power,

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and we'll keep they will always be peaceful. Never ever, ever,

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will we do anything it's not peaceful. That's Iran, the

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number one terrorist sponsor in the world. So you can't

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believe a word they say. They asked the President on

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Air Force one last night about this, Is he okay

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with Iran doing a little bit of enrichment.

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Speaker 6: Well, do you accept anything less than zero nuclear in Richmond?

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Speaker 3: I don't.

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Speaker 1: We don't want any enrichment. We don't want Richmond. So

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Brett mcgerg who a former National Security Council guy for

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the Mideast, he knows that area like the back of

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his hand, and he has some concerns that he wants

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to pass along.

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Speaker 9: I think I think President Trump that there could be

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a diplomatic off ramp I think he would take it,

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and he seems to think that maybe Iran is going

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to come in with something that he can defend. I'm

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just not seeing that in the cards because the Supreme leader, Haminade,

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despite what Iron's foremister might say, Hominae a supreme leader,

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the only decider in Tehran, has really doubled down on

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we're not going to talk about missiles, we're not going

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to talk about nuclear and Richmond and very DeFi in tone,

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and he's the guy that matters. So I think this

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is heading now. And given the scope of this military deployment,

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it's really massive. It is an operational deployment. I think

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this is heading for a military operation. Absence some breakthrough,

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we all hope diplomacy can succeed. But as Kevin said

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and done, these talks with Iron on nuclear issues and

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other issues, they're very complex and very technical. They take

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a lot of time. I'm just very skeptical that in

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the course of ten days or so you can have

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a breakthrough.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the President basically said, you'll give Iran ten to

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fifteen days. He said that should be enough time. But

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remember the last time before we attacked, he said, I'll

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make a decision within two weeks, where he's kind of

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doing the two week thing again, and he says, I'll

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make it. You know, we'll give them ten to fifteen

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days to decide what they want to do. So to

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wrap this up, we'll see what the Trump administration comes

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up with regarding these tariffs. He said he's imposing a

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ten percent across the board pariff on everything immediately, but

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we'll see if that has to get some sort of

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congressional blessing. It's under Section one twenty two, but it's

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only good for one hundred and fifty days before the

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president is required to go back before Congress. So we'll

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see what the massinations are to make that take place.

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But it just leads everybody that's doing any sort of

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business internationally up in the air about what are the rules,

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what will be the rules to keep changing? Awfully hard

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for businesses to plan their financials. Wall Street, like I said,

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with the news from the Supreme Court, the stock market rallied, strongly,

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settled down, but still finished with a very nice day.

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The Dow up two hundred and thirty at forty nine

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six twenty five s and P up forty seven. Nasdaq

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up two hundred and three gold. Nice day, up one

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hundred and twelve dollars to five thousand and one oh

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nine oil. Surprising, not much change up just six cents

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to sixty six dollars and some change for a barrel

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of oil. So that's it for today. Thank you for

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coming by.

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Speaker 5: We will be.

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Speaker 1: Back on Monday. Have a great weekend. We'll see you

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here then