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Speaker 1: All right, everybody welcome in full court press makeshift setup

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for me here, so hopefully you can hear me. Okay,

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I know I get the background blurred just in case

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someone walks in. That doesn't really feel like being on

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on camera. But Rob, we missed you yesterday. But I

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am not missing twenty twenty five at all because I

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went three and oh yesterday in college. Who It's like

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the first kind of one of those days I've had

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in a while. So maybe I left all the bad

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luck back in last year and we're ready to cook

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in twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 2: How was your New Year? Would you do anything fun

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on New Year's Eve?

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Speaker 3: New Year's Eve lasted well into the night. For me,

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it was, you know, happened to be inside my home,

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so you know, I think about I don't know, ten

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to twenty. The last of the people left Am, and

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at that point, when you know Oregon and Texas Tech

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are kicking off at twelve, it's try to him and

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as much rest as you can and get back at it.

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But yeah, it was good. Yesterday. Focus was on college football, Adam.

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I did not have a CBB play yesterday. College football

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went two and one, six and one over the course

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of left a couple of days here. So college football

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has been really good, but look forward to getting into

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now what should be almost predominantly college hoop season. We're

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not quite there yet, but it's getting close.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll point out something.

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Speaker 1: We had an issue yesterday with some of the comments

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coming through. Titan CT says, good morning, and I see

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that one. So with this, I don't know why this

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was happening. It seemed to to sort of correct itself

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as the show went on. But if you are are

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trying to get a comment in, I think YouTube is

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the place to do that. Slick Dick says the parlay

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of the Montana's cash last night, Yeah, I had Montana

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as a best bet and Montana's State came through as well.

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So yeah, good day and we got a lot to

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get into today.

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Speaker 3: Rob.

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Speaker 1: The clear feature on today's slate is is out in Lincoln,

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Nebraska at the at the Bank right the PBA Pinnacle

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Bank Arena, where you know, I kind of come on

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this show. Brian Power and I got out to East

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Lansing earlier this year to see Michigan State play, and

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I've talked about how impressed I've been with them since

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that game kind of you know, going into that game

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thinking that they, you know, maybe came out like better

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than I expected them to be, and they really have

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not disappointed all year. But what what what can you

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say about Nebraska at this point? They've been incredible. They

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get as big of a bump for home court as

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any place that I've never been.

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Speaker 2: I've never I've never been to Lincoln.

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Speaker 1: But like all you, if you have two eyes and

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volume on your TV, you know that that's an insane atmosphere.

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I imagine it will be tonight. Michigan State Nebraska. What

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do you think, Rob? How are you looking at this?

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Speaker 3: It's an interesting game. I mean, obviously both teams tearing

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off wins, both have ripped off a couple of big

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ten wins already, one home on a way. There's not

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much to decipher from what they've done as far as

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conference play goes, because they're kind of mirror image, I

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guess the biggest The first thing that's glaring right is

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that both of these teams have been almost exclusively at

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home or neutral, one true road for each side here,

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and it was a big ten game and each came

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through in very close, tight fashion. So again we're scheduling

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is concerned, where the strength of opponent is concerned, it's

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kind of I mean, I guess you would lean towards

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Michigan State as having played a better schedule because they

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play a few better teams in the MTS. But these

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teams right now record based performance based kind of mirror

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images Nebraska, as you mentioned, Adam, and it's not something

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that just began yesterday. With this home floor advantage, even

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when Nebraska wasn't as good as they are this year,

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the home floor out there in Lincoln has been incredibly helpful.

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I would say this when I dug through it. There's

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a couple of key matchups in this game. For sure,

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Nebraska doesn't turn the ball over Michigan State, for what

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it's worth, they don't force turnovers, so Nebraska's possessions for

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the most part, should be possessions where they at least

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get an attempt at the rim. Then lies the trouble

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for Nebraska, because Michigan State just absolutely destroys the boards

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on both ends. Defensive boards they're especially good, and Nebraska

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doesn't offensive rebound all that well for a team with

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some heights. So one and done maybe for Nebraska However,

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when I say that, if you just dig into the

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matchups here, Rink Mast the big four at Nebraska has

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the ability to drag a big out beyond a three

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point circle. He's a really good three point shooter. And

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when you have those stretch forwards, stretch fives, whatever you

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like to call them, you can create a little bit

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better rebounding situation for your team. So Nebraska, while they'll

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be in trouble on the glass in this game, I

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believe they might not be in as big a trouble.

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It is interesting to say and be able to say

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factually that in Michigan State's the better three point shooting team,

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and Tom Izzo's team has gone all the way to

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sixty first nationally in three point percentage. That's really good

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for this team off of where they were last year.

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You put it all together here, they're a little bit different,

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They're a lot similar. Home floor makes a difference. I

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kind of think the line movement was correct. I thought

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that early, and then as I thought through it, you

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start to change your mind a little bit. You think, man,

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Michigan State's just gonna defend like crazy, and they're gonna

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get on the glass and et cetera, et cetera. But

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I kind of trust Nebraska's offense here to get enough done.

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So slight lean Nebraska here, adam the game. As far

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as point total is concerned, I wouldn't think that it

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would reach extreme heights. I think the opener tells us

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that one forty four and a half down now to

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one forty three. I think people are expecting kind of

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the game that I'm describing here, but I think that

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Nebraska maybe could win this game by more than a bucket.

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It's going to be such a good game, and I

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wouldn't be surprised one way or the other. Foul trouble

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could dictate this one. I'll say that too. Foul trouble

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could be a big thing in this game. Let's see

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where the whistles go. No play but a lean on

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the Nebraska side.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, no play for me either, But I'm actually gonna

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lean toward the over. You know, I kind of disagree

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with that move for a couple of reasons, one being if, well,

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I guess if Nebraska is gonna win, you want to

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talk about you know, it's it's been a great atmosphere

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for a while. They had New Hampshire and earlier in

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the week, and I don't think there was an empty

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seat in the house. I think it was pretty much

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sold out for New Hampshire, who is a bad team

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on the America East. So if you're you kind of

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know you've arrived as a program if you're selling out

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that arena against an America East school. So that was

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pretty impressive for Nebraska to win this game. Like I

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see them, I see the Nebraska money. I'm not sure,

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I really I don't disagree with it, but it's like

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it's not something I would I necessarily follow Michigan. Michigan

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State is one of these teams that, like you know,

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they're kind of they're not gonna A big game is

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not going to put them off, Rightzo's going to have

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them prepared. I think you made a lot of good

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points as to like their path to victory in this game. Uh,

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but you talked about masked him being there as opposed

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to not playing in this game last year obviously two

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years ago in this building. I believe they upset Michigan State.

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It might have been a mild upset. I don't think

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Michigan State was quite as good as they were this year.

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When that you know at the time of that game

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being played, they win the game with mass last year

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or two years ago, lose the game without him last year.

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I think he obviously really completes their offense. And you

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know when Nebraska, feeding off the energy of the crowd,

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they hit some threes and suddenly that game is a

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little bit more up and down. Then maybe, you know,

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one might think the other thing second chance points for

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Michigan State and the fact that they've you know, you

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talked about last year them not hitting the three.

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Speaker 2: How about the Arkansas game.

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Speaker 1: I think they were one for fourteen from three and

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they still won that game. I believe the next time

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out they played San Jose State didn't shoot the ball

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particularly well. So they've kind of come a long way,

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and I think it's because they're they're generating better looks

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and knocking down You know, these guys can all if

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you're if you're getting good looks, they're they're gonna make

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those right, And I think that's what Michigan State has

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done so well this year at the shot selection, kind

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of helping that percentage. So again, not something I'm gonna play,

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but I'll call this one over.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think real quick we'll just wrap it up

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here with a couple of you know, ats record stuff here, Adam,

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I think if you're if you're pro Nebraska in this game,

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you want to point to Michigan State going on the

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road their only road trip this year, only beating Penn

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State by four as a twelve and a half point favorite.

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You want to point to the fact that Michigan State's

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one and four ats in their last five, and then

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of course, you know the comeback to that could be

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Nebraska zero and two their last two. However, those two

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were as favorites in the high high twenties off of

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two Big ten victories, so you can almost push that aside,

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thinking that maybe they're somewhat disinterested. It's a crazy game

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to try and project here, but I don't know in

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my mind that arena. And let's just mention Price Standford

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for one second here, former Iowa guard who now plays

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for Nebraska. I'm pretty sure again I'll go pro Michigan

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State here. I'm pretty sure Tom Izzo, after seeing this

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kid for so many years, has a pretty good game

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plan design because they're not the Nebraska team isn't full

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of three point weapons, and if you take one of

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them away. That's a pas. The victory for Michigan State

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as well. So great coach, Freddie Hoiberg. I don't want

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to leave him short. Great coach as well. We'll see

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how it goes, Adam. It's gonna be a good game

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for Big ten.

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Speaker 1: Action, all right, Jose, I see you looking for the

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early game. We have an early tip today, and you're

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not the only one. I see quite a few folks

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looking for some insight into some conference USA Action Ron.

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This is going to be New Mexico State Florida International

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down at the the Ocean Bank. I went here last year.

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There was no one there, literally no one there. There

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probably won't be anyone there this afternoon. Forget the name

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of it. It's like the Ocean Bank something something center,

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pretty cool building. They have a painting of the ocean

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on the floor, which is always, you know, kind of

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probably probably the biggest thing I remember the most about

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that place. But you know, early tip off here to

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me like Florida International, So this is this is like

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an interesting scenario because they lost all of their best

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players from last year. But the team last year was

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not very good, right, so like do you know what

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I mean? It's like, yeah, they lost guys like Deshaun

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Getdins who's now at Sacred Heart. A couple of others

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moved on from that team as well. But last year's

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team was bad, so coming. You know, if this game

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occurred rob maybe four or five weeks ago, I'd be

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all over New Mexico State here. But you know, early tip,

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it's some travel for New Mexico State. It's going to

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be a dead atmosphere. But there's really not many Florida

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International games that aren't at you know. I mean, it's

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no different than any other home game for them. Man,

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I want to like New Mexico State in this spot

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because I just think they're like categor or better. I

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think they're just a better team. But the early tip

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slash traveled to South Florida Miami area has me a

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little bit concerned. Anything for you here, Florida International, New

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Mexico State.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, as you say that again rings the bell of

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when I was on with Jim Root a couple of

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weeks ago, and he talked about this very setup. Right,

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the travel team in the early game, usually at least

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for his betting opportunities did not pan out. Whenever I

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see Florida International on the board. The first thing I

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do is look toward the over. It's always going to

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be high as is today. In fact, for an FIU game,

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this might not even be considered high. One fifty three

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and a half. I think New Mexico State's tempo kind

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of settles the number lower than where it normally would be.

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That said, for me, Florida International under Ballard Jeremy Ballard

242
00:12:33,440 --> 00:12:36,240
has always been a one trick pony. They're going to

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00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:38,679
outscore you in high eighties or nineties, or they're not

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going to shoot well and you're going to destroy them.

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Take your choice. It's not necessarily the same every game,

246
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and so it's very hard to project. What you try

247
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to project is what will the opponent do with the

248
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opponent just get up and go with them, which in

249
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most cases is what happens, Adam, I mean, nobody really

250
00:12:55,600 --> 00:13:00,440
fears when they play FIU. Defensively, kids get caught up

251
00:13:00,440 --> 00:13:03,639
in the pace winds up being fairly high scoring. New

252
00:13:03,679 --> 00:13:07,320
Mexico Jason Houghton has the same blueprint ever since Sam

253
00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:09,960
Houston State. He likes to be methodical. It's been a

254
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New Mexico State thing for a while. But I think

255
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they might get caught up in this pace, especially early,

256
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and they'll be able to score. They just come off

257
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a game against Sam Houston, which is similarly fast, not

258
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as fast as FYU tempo wise or shot you know,

259
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the time of possession on offense is concerned, but fast,

260
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and the game went eighty seven to seventy eight one

261
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and sixty five points, which is twelve above this number.

262
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If you play the FIU over, you have to get

263
00:13:40,799 --> 00:13:43,279
FIU to have at least a mediocre shooting day. The

264
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opportunities are gonna be. There's gonna be such a batch

265
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of opportunities that as long as you can get them

266
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to shoot halfway decent, it'll get over. I think that's

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what happens here. One fifty three and a half for

268
00:13:53,799 --> 00:13:57,120
a game involving Florida International just to me seems a

269
00:13:57,159 --> 00:14:00,440
little bit low despite what New Mexico State likes to

270
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do best, which is more mediocre, slow tempo. I think

271
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they'll score it will against this defense, So for me,

272
00:14:08,159 --> 00:14:10,279
this game should be able to get to one fifty four.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Jeremy Balladers do we think him and Mike McDaniel

274
00:14:16,080 --> 00:14:18,919
hang out like they probably do right Like sometimes he'll

275
00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:22,080
roll up to a game with like capri pants and

276
00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:26,559
loafers on. It's it's very McDaniel esque. Just got he's

277
00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:28,879
just a fashionable guy. But you know, as far as

278
00:14:28,879 --> 00:14:32,720
the team is concerned, you know, you talk about FIU's offense.

279
00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:34,480
It's part of the reason I don't really want to

280
00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:36,720
fade them here, right, Like, you know, I know they

281
00:14:36,799 --> 00:14:39,799
lost to Miami, but that was they were more competitive

282
00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:41,879
than I expected them to be. Their ninety eight eighty

283
00:14:41,919 --> 00:14:46,200
one the final. You know that that Long Island team

284
00:14:46,639 --> 00:14:49,759
like to knock off Long Island, drop eighty six points

285
00:14:49,799 --> 00:14:52,799
and win that game. Is is like they're no slouch

286
00:14:52,919 --> 00:14:55,279
like Long Island. We might talk about Long Island today

287
00:14:55,639 --> 00:14:57,320
in a pretty big game for them in the NC,

288
00:14:57,519 --> 00:15:00,600
but like, that's a good basketball team and they handled them.

289
00:15:00,879 --> 00:15:03,840
And then last time out, even in a loss, maybe

290
00:15:03,840 --> 00:15:06,320
one of their most impressive performances of the season, taking

291
00:15:06,399 --> 00:15:09,840
Liberty to the Wired ninety seven to ninety four in

292
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a game that went to overtime.

293
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Speaker 2: So yeah, they're scoring the basketball again.

294
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Speaker 1: It's part of the reason that even though my number

295
00:15:16,159 --> 00:15:19,960
slightly leads New Mexico, I don't really I don't really

296
00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:21,919
want to like go into battle here with the road

297
00:15:21,919 --> 00:15:23,679
team in this early tip, and I can't put I

298
00:15:23,679 --> 00:15:28,279
can't talk you off the over all, Right, I think

299
00:15:28,320 --> 00:15:30,919
it's a time we Rob, we should throw out a

300
00:15:30,960 --> 00:15:34,600
quick promo. The package is live for the two of us,

301
00:15:34,639 --> 00:15:38,000
so we have right now if you want. If you

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like this show, you like the info you're getting, you're

303
00:15:39,840 --> 00:15:42,919
gonna get that same information on a lot of other

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games that we don't talk about on this show. And

305
00:15:45,519 --> 00:15:49,159
right now you can get three days at a highly

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00:15:49,200 --> 00:15:52,600
discounted rate, and I think we have that. I believe

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that's going to be like standing the rest of the season.

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00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:56,840
So you know, if you do it on a Friday,

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00:15:57,840 --> 00:15:59,759
you get the whole weekend and that's a lot of

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00:15:59,759 --> 00:16:02,679
pick and they don't cost very much per pick. So

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if you're liking the show, check that out, Rob, you

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00:16:05,519 --> 00:16:08,919
know what the I think it's three day all access.

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00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:10,720
Speaker 2: For both of our college basketball correct.

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Speaker 3: That is correct. I thought I saw forty nine dollars

315
00:16:14,080 --> 00:16:16,440
at him. I'm not positive that's the price point. I'm

316
00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:19,799
trying to look it up right now, make sure that,

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but as we speak, I'll find it.

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Speaker 1: I think it's and yeah, end listen, guys, Yeah, any

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00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:33,799
three days. So we did away with the weekend special

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00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:36,240
because we were like, well, why not offer it all

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00:16:36,279 --> 00:16:39,919
the time, because you know we're grinding this out every day.

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00:16:39,919 --> 00:16:42,919
We've got plays every day, but you know the weekend

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00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:45,240
is you know you're gonna find your volume on a

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slate like tomorrow's. There is a ton of games, and

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once you get into conference play for whatever reason, Rob

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00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:55,639
they'll put seven games on Friday and then one hundred

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and fifty on Saturday. Makes no sense. Can't tell me

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that that's you know that there's a reason that they

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have to do that, but they do. Clem, thank you

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00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:07,079
so much, he says, love the show. We really appreciate

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you guys.

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Speaker 2: I will give.

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00:17:08,440 --> 00:17:10,759
Speaker 1: You jump in the chat if you want to guess

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00:17:10,799 --> 00:17:12,279
what game I'm going to tonight. I don't know if

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I sat on the show, So I'll let you throw

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it out there. We'll see if anyone gets it right

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and then maybe we'll talk about it. But yeah, we

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00:17:21,240 --> 00:17:25,680
we appreciate the support, comments, likes, subscribes. If you buy

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00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:27,480
the play is great. If not, we just like having

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00:17:27,519 --> 00:17:30,440
you guys here. So yeah, Trevor, how about how about this?

341
00:17:30,599 --> 00:17:33,359
You know what mac Any see Fridays. I'll tell you

342
00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:35,799
what game it's not. I am not going to see

343
00:17:35,839 --> 00:17:38,480
on I own it tonight. Although if I was in

344
00:17:38,519 --> 00:17:41,440
that part of the country right now, that would be

345
00:17:41,599 --> 00:17:44,559
someplace I would be. That is a big one in

346
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the mac rob This is a I would say.

347
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Speaker 2: I'm gonna go out. Yeah, I'm gonna say it.

348
00:17:50,559 --> 00:17:53,480
Speaker 1: This is the outside of the Jalen Picket year, which

349
00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:57,279
was more Jalen Pickett being awesome and as we know,

350
00:17:57,400 --> 00:18:01,880
he's an NBA caliber player. This is Sienna's best team

351
00:18:02,279 --> 00:18:06,119
since the Fran McCaffrey era, since twenty ten, which was

352
00:18:06,119 --> 00:18:06,720
the last time.

353
00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:07,799
Speaker 2: They were in the NCAA tournament.

354
00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:12,440
Speaker 1: This is probably outside of the COVID year that got canceled.

355
00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:15,559
That was a pretty good team too, the best chance

356
00:18:15,599 --> 00:18:17,359
that they've had to sort of win this league and

357
00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:20,880
get back to the NCAA tournament. IONA has kind of

358
00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:24,200
become our rival, if you will, over the year. Not

359
00:18:24,279 --> 00:18:27,359
so much because it's like, you know, the two teams

360
00:18:27,359 --> 00:18:30,599
are close to each other. IONA has bigger geographic rivals,

361
00:18:30,720 --> 00:18:33,599
but these two teams have been good for a long

362
00:18:33,599 --> 00:18:35,720
period of time in this league, and so this this

363
00:18:35,799 --> 00:18:38,240
game is a big deal to both teams. Rob, this

364
00:18:38,319 --> 00:18:41,160
is down in New Rochelle tonight. Iona kind of comes

365
00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:43,559
off of what I would consider a game that they

366
00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:48,799
probably feel like they should have had, not necessarily should

367
00:18:48,799 --> 00:18:50,240
have had, in the respect that, like I thought they

368
00:18:50,279 --> 00:18:52,200
got out played in the second half on Monday against

369
00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:54,240
Mount Saint Mary's. But I think that's a game that

370
00:18:54,279 --> 00:18:56,680
they probably, you know, kind of look at the schedule

371
00:18:56,720 --> 00:19:01,000
and feel like they should win potential look ahead. I

372
00:19:01,079 --> 00:19:03,720
gotta be honest, like Sienna, I think they did kind

373
00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:07,440
of inflate their their standing a little bit beating up

374
00:19:07,480 --> 00:19:10,240
on bad teams a little bit concerned that they got

375
00:19:10,279 --> 00:19:12,799
like punch into malt Fi Vermont, and then Vermont turned

376
00:19:12,839 --> 00:19:14,759
around and lost to Princeton team that I don't think

377
00:19:14,839 --> 00:19:18,279
is very good. So for me, I'll be a fan

378
00:19:18,319 --> 00:19:20,160
in this one. You know who I'm gonna be rooting for.

379
00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:22,319
But Rob, don't take it easy on me. If you

380
00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:23,839
like Iona, you gotta let me know.

381
00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:27,720
Speaker 3: Well, I think there's advantages for the Iona side, And

382
00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:29,680
I'll just start with the schedule maker. The last time

383
00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:33,079
we Sawanna Adam, they were getting that and I remember

384
00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:34,759
texting you at the very end of the game when

385
00:19:34,759 --> 00:19:38,240
we got to stick back to cover against Indiana. You're

386
00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:41,160
talking about ten days off for one side and another

387
00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:43,079
side it's been more active on the court only three

388
00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:45,440
days off for Iona. Both teams come off a loss,

389
00:19:45,440 --> 00:19:48,680
so it's important to each year. I do think that

390
00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:54,599
the length of layoff probably favors Iona. I'd rather have

391
00:19:54,759 --> 00:19:56,880
the team that's been on the court more recently than

392
00:19:56,920 --> 00:19:59,920
the one that hasn't been there since either of the holidays. Right,

393
00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:03,240
holidays have taken place two weeks in a row now

394
00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:06,880
for Sienna. And then the other thing, of course, becomes

395
00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:10,160
the contrast in styles. Iona wants to get up and down.

396
00:20:10,319 --> 00:20:12,400
Jerry McNamara doesn't really want to get up and down.

397
00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:19,720
They'd rather take possessions extremely slow and try to make

398
00:20:19,759 --> 00:20:23,680
the most maximized possessions scoring wise, and then run back

399
00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:26,480
and play d against the other side. I kind of

400
00:20:26,559 --> 00:20:28,839
favor I always say this, and it's just one of

401
00:20:28,839 --> 00:20:31,880
those things that I stick by when I handicap that

402
00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:34,920
the home team, if there's a contrast in styles, if

403
00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:37,880
there's a difference in tempos, the home team has the

404
00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:40,799
advantage controlling it from more than fifty percent of the game.

405
00:20:40,839 --> 00:20:43,279
I'm not saying they control it all forty, but I

406
00:20:43,319 --> 00:20:45,160
will say that more than twenty minutes are going to

407
00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:49,599
go to Iona's style in this game, and in that case,

408
00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:54,480
you need Sienna to be able to not be susceptible

409
00:20:54,559 --> 00:20:57,079
to a quick eight nothing run something like that in

410
00:20:57,119 --> 00:20:59,440
a game where I mean it's totally in the mid

411
00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:02,160
forties at and it's been bet up a couple of points,

412
00:21:02,559 --> 00:21:05,680
but the game probably lands there, which means you're talking

413
00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:11,640
about a game high sixties loser, low seventies winner. You

414
00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:14,839
can't give away possessions. So for for Siena, it's really

415
00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:18,680
really important that in those stretches where the game goes quick,

416
00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:23,279
it doesn't affect them adversely, like I say, they don't

417
00:21:23,279 --> 00:21:26,079
get victimized by an eight to zero tend to run

418
00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:28,880
something like that where margins created and stuff to come back,

419
00:21:29,759 --> 00:21:32,599
they can avoid that. I don't know. I don't see

420
00:21:32,599 --> 00:21:37,039
a lot of matchup you know, physical matchup advantages for

421
00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:40,319
the iwer side. The only thing real true advantage I

422
00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:43,880
see in this matchup is the pace they're both off

423
00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:46,559
of losses. So I can't say once hungrier than the other.

424
00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:50,119
It's a conference matchup. And I also, like I said,

425
00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:52,960
I think this is the length of time off might

426
00:21:53,039 --> 00:21:55,960
hurt Sienna here. If you're looking at one team that

427
00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:58,640
could come out of the gate a little bit slow,

428
00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:01,599
a little bit offshoot wise, and they are on the road,

429
00:22:02,319 --> 00:22:05,599
I think that team would be Siena. You know, there's

430
00:22:05,599 --> 00:22:07,920
a couple of things they have to avoid, but I

431
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:09,519
think Iona has advantages here.

432
00:22:10,759 --> 00:22:13,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, And if there's one place that you don't want

433
00:22:13,279 --> 00:22:16,599
to come out slow, it's on the road. At Iona,

434
00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:19,240
they always get a good crowd. They play well in

435
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:21,160
that building, they shoot it well in that building. Just

436
00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:24,119
ask Hofstra how that worked out for them earlier this

437
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:25,880
year when they came out slow and I think they

438
00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:28,480
were down twenty two to three or something like that,

439
00:22:28,519 --> 00:22:31,160
like twenty twenty two to four in the first like

440
00:22:31,559 --> 00:22:35,200
seven eight minutes of that game at Hines. I will

441
00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:40,400
say this, like Sienna typically this is not their best

442
00:22:40,799 --> 00:22:44,200
road trip, like they historically, they don't play well in

443
00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:46,039
this building. But Rob I also think that has something

444
00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:48,079
to do with the fact that Iona has been the

445
00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:50,599
far superior team the last decade or so. You know,

446
00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:52,400
you have to go back, you go back into like

447
00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:55,319
when I was at school and the mid two thousands,

448
00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:59,319
Sienna was better. But like the stretch of Iona basketball

449
00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:02,160
that was like early two thousands getting an at large

450
00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:04,480
bid to the tournament, followed by Rick Patino, followed by

451
00:23:04,519 --> 00:23:07,319
now like they up until this year have been the

452
00:23:07,319 --> 00:23:09,279
better team, So that might be you know, if you're

453
00:23:09,279 --> 00:23:11,359
looking at historical records, that probably.

454
00:23:11,079 --> 00:23:11,960
Speaker 2: Has something to do with it.

455
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:16,200
Speaker 1: You mentioned Sianna potentially coming out flat and the long layoff.

456
00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:19,000
I think this is the most important part of this handicap.

457
00:23:19,599 --> 00:23:23,200
Sienna has had guys out, but I do think the

458
00:23:23,279 --> 00:23:27,440
Indiana game was more of just like, hey, we've got

459
00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:30,680
a long break. There's no reason to play guys again

460
00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:35,680
in a twenty three point spread game on the road,

461
00:23:35,839 --> 00:23:38,599
Like it just doesn't make sense to do that. They

462
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:41,359
scratched Tasmin Goodrick late in that game, and they also

463
00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:43,680
held out Riley Mouldy, who was out with a concussion.

464
00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:47,640
I gotta think Cianna will have those guys back here

465
00:23:47,759 --> 00:23:50,480
after the long layoff. And the nice thing I've complimented

466
00:23:50,759 --> 00:23:54,200
Sianna basketball on this route they published their injury report

467
00:23:54,319 --> 00:23:58,119
and post it to Twitter like religiously. They literally It's like,

468
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:02,079
I really wish all of college basketball would would copy

469
00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:05,599
what they do. If you follow Sianna at MBB Twitter account.

470
00:24:05,839 --> 00:24:08,279
They put out an injury report and they say, like

471
00:24:08,519 --> 00:24:12,400
matter of factly, these people are out and these people

472
00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:15,720
are back, and it'll probably happen ninety minutes to two

473
00:24:15,799 --> 00:24:18,680
hours before the game. So you will know. That's the

474
00:24:18,759 --> 00:24:21,039
nice thing about Sianna. You you will have a ninety

475
00:24:21,079 --> 00:24:24,039
minute to two hour heads up on whether Goodrick is back,

476
00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:27,960
Mulvy is back, someone else was sick for the last game.

477
00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:30,200
But like I said, I think I think they're rolling

478
00:24:30,279 --> 00:24:32,920
in full strength. Doesn't mean that I own is going

479
00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:35,920
to be an easy matchup for them. So yeah, that's uh,

480
00:24:36,079 --> 00:24:38,119
but be one of the better games to watch tonight,

481
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:43,440
especially if you're in to mid major basketball. I see

482
00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:45,559
by you Byou's back by who says boots on the

483
00:24:45,599 --> 00:24:49,480
ground this weekend for him in Hammond. That's Southeast Louisiana.

484
00:24:50,839 --> 00:24:52,480
That's a that'll be a good one by you. I

485
00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:55,720
think they're playing Steven f Austin tesse Bett says, Dayton

486
00:24:55,759 --> 00:24:56,279
isn't playing.

487
00:24:56,319 --> 00:24:57,960
Speaker 2: Listen, this is for my guy, Sean Ley.

488
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:00,720
Speaker 1: If you watch the show earlier in the I told

489
00:25:00,799 --> 00:25:02,960
him I bust the date and gear out for him

490
00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:05,960
at some point, and so I did it today. Yes,

491
00:25:06,039 --> 00:25:08,000
they don't have a game, but I did it today.

492
00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:10,960
There's our guy, Garth. You know what, Garth, I actually

493
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:13,519
really want to talk about this game. So Garth is here.

494
00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:16,839
I appreciate the donation as always, and I want to

495
00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:21,880
go to This is a really interesting sort of you know,

496
00:25:22,079 --> 00:25:26,079
set up here with the respect that like Michigan rob

497
00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:29,839
at this point is a twenty three point home favorite

498
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:34,119
to like a pretty good USC basketball team. I have

499
00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:35,880
thoughts on that, but I'm going to let you kick

500
00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:38,200
this one off. Garth wants to know team total over

501
00:25:38,279 --> 00:25:40,680
ninety six and a half. Does the Wolverines just keep

502
00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:41,759
running people off the court.

503
00:25:43,319 --> 00:25:46,440
Speaker 3: It's hard to bid against it, all right? I mean this.

504
00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:49,400
You've talked about this a couple of times this year

505
00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:52,279
with different teams other than Michigan. But as somebody who

506
00:25:52,319 --> 00:25:56,119
also has kept power ratings for thirty some odd years,

507
00:25:56,519 --> 00:26:00,839
Michigan's one of those teams were you know, you're probably

508
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:02,480
the same, Adam, But I don't want to put words

509
00:26:02,519 --> 00:26:06,440
in your mouth. There's a ceiling after every game, no

510
00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:09,440
matter what I've seen that I will either raise or

511
00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:11,319
lower team. In other words, I'm not going to drop

512
00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:13,519
somebody six points because I just saw a bad performance.

513
00:26:13,519 --> 00:26:15,880
There's always a ceiling and a floor to how much

514
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:19,839
you can raise, how much you can take away. Michigan's

515
00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:22,720
one of those teams where you can't raise them high enough.

516
00:26:22,759 --> 00:26:25,799
At this point in time, the margin of victories are

517
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:29,400
so huge, the points being scored are so huge that

518
00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:34,680
you can't if you're following a regimented system of how

519
00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:38,359
you do your power ratings, it's impossible to keep pace

520
00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:41,119
with what they're doing right now. But the odds maker

521
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:42,920
has to do something. He doesn't have to be me.

522
00:26:43,079 --> 00:26:44,640
He's not the guy coming up to win. The odds

523
00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:47,559
maker has to do something to distract attention or deflect

524
00:26:47,599 --> 00:26:49,960
attention to the other side of the game, and so

525
00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:52,720
you wind up with points spreads like this guard. That's

526
00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:56,279
a great question. Interesting wise, because before we came on

527
00:26:56,359 --> 00:26:59,000
the show and I took a second look at this

528
00:26:59,039 --> 00:27:00,519
game and I said to myself, Man, I want to

529
00:27:00,559 --> 00:27:03,640
bet USC's team total. I want to bet USC to

530
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:07,440
go over what's a very small seventy four and a

531
00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:10,240
half with the offense that they bring to the table.

532
00:27:10,279 --> 00:27:13,960
I mean, Michigan could go off for one hundred again.

533
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:19,319
But if they do and they cover scoring one hundred,

534
00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:22,039
then USC's gonna be at seventy six, or yeah, seventy

535
00:27:22,079 --> 00:27:24,839
six for a Michigan cover, seventy seven for a USC cover,

536
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:29,279
it's seventy four and a half. Just seems like it's. Man.

537
00:27:29,319 --> 00:27:31,960
I don't want to say disrespectful to USC, but I

538
00:27:32,039 --> 00:27:35,440
just don't know that you can the way Michigan's playing

539
00:27:35,519 --> 00:27:38,720
right now, once you get separation, the way that they

540
00:27:38,839 --> 00:27:42,440
do defense can at times just be a second thought

541
00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:44,480
in the back of your head. We're rolling, we're scoring,

542
00:27:44,519 --> 00:27:46,319
They're never going to catch us. Who cares if they

543
00:27:46,319 --> 00:27:47,960
get a bucket? Who cares if they make a three?

544
00:27:48,279 --> 00:27:53,000
Et cetera, et cetera. Now that being said, you take

545
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:57,000
a look at the last I'm trying to go back here,

546
00:27:57,119 --> 00:28:00,400
last ten games that they've played Maryland. It's the only

547
00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:03,640
team that's gotten to this number against them, despite the

548
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:05,400
fact that they've run people out of the building. So

549
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:09,480
I know there's a risk in it. But my initial

550
00:28:09,519 --> 00:28:12,279
reaction here is I do want to play USC's team

551
00:28:12,319 --> 00:28:14,920
total over seventy four and a half simply because they're

552
00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:17,920
that good offensively, and this game you may get a

553
00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:21,440
full game total over and last thing I'm not going

554
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:24,079
to talk you off betting Michigan team total over because

555
00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:27,680
to me with my eyes right now, and I think

556
00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:30,599
I said this back before, you know, after Thanksgiving, they

557
00:28:30,599 --> 00:28:33,119
look like the best team in college basketball. They still do.

558
00:28:33,799 --> 00:28:36,160
But my thoughts are towards USC team total over seventy

559
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:36,720
four and a half.

560
00:28:38,839 --> 00:28:42,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is this is an insane number. I think.

561
00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:45,799
Speaker 1: I think I have to bat USC like this. I'm

562
00:28:45,799 --> 00:28:48,480
seeing twenty three at Caesars. I see some other I

563
00:28:48,519 --> 00:28:50,799
see mostly twenty two and a half, but like there's

564
00:28:50,839 --> 00:28:53,240
a handful of twenty threes out there. So my biggest

565
00:28:53,279 --> 00:28:55,000
numeracle edge of the day I got, I make this

566
00:28:55,039 --> 00:28:57,799
sixteen and a half. Like, I know that I might

567
00:28:57,839 --> 00:29:00,559
be that might be on the lighter side, you know,

568
00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:04,000
I may be like a little too far off market there,

569
00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:06,640
But I don't think I'm wrong to think that there's

570
00:29:06,799 --> 00:29:10,039
like number value on USC at this price.

571
00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:10,680
Speaker 2: Rob.

572
00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:13,440
Speaker 1: I mean, this is not a bad basketball team. They

573
00:29:13,519 --> 00:29:17,279
have athletes, they force turnovers, you know, they're they're gonna

574
00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:21,000
apply defensive pressure. It's like and just to go back

575
00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:22,960
to Garth, Like, I'm not saying his team total doesn't

576
00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:25,480
get there. I'm not saying your team total doesn't get there. Actually,

577
00:29:25,759 --> 00:29:28,599
if both team totals get there, it's gonna be hard

578
00:29:28,599 --> 00:29:31,200
to believe that they would have won by more than

579
00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:35,319
twenty three points, right Like, if usc is is beating

580
00:29:35,359 --> 00:29:38,640
their team total, even if Michigan's is going over, hard

581
00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:41,720
to believe that that would be a twenty three point

582
00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:45,079
or more margin. I just think that, like you know,

583
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:47,720
at some point, like there is a ceiling, at some point,

584
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:50,839
you can't just the numbers can't just go up and

585
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:54,519
up and up forever. I see slick picking. The chat

586
00:29:54,559 --> 00:29:57,720
says you at USC's defense is trash. Yeah, like like

587
00:29:57,799 --> 00:30:01,319
their half court defenses is not great. But like you know,

588
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:04,119
the key against Michigan is, here's the thing. Michigan is

589
00:30:04,119 --> 00:30:07,519
going to dissect good defense. What you got to do

590
00:30:07,599 --> 00:30:09,920
is force turnovers. You got to pressure them. You got

591
00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:12,759
to force turnovers. That that is how you that that's

592
00:30:12,839 --> 00:30:15,039
ultimately how you're gonna stop Michigan is by taking the

593
00:30:15,079 --> 00:30:17,279
ball from them. And that I think you got usc

594
00:30:17,319 --> 00:30:19,400
can do a little bit because they have the athletes

595
00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:21,759
to do it and they will apply that kind of pressure.

596
00:30:21,839 --> 00:30:24,160
So I'm going to actually make this my leg of

597
00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:26,279
my parlay. I won't lock it until the end of

598
00:30:26,319 --> 00:30:28,599
the show from a number standpoint, because you know how

599
00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:31,000
we can't parlay until you know the other leg. But

600
00:30:31,119 --> 00:30:33,039
like twenty two and a half or twenty three whatever,

601
00:30:33,039 --> 00:30:35,599
we're able to get here, good chance. I bet it

602
00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:37,400
for clients as well. I kind of wanted to see

603
00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:39,920
if it would tick up to twenty three across the board.

604
00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:43,200
But yeah, this is like, even if this game ROB

605
00:30:43,279 --> 00:30:46,720
is not competitive, I still think like there's a chance

606
00:30:46,799 --> 00:30:50,240
USC covers. Like, even if they play poorly and it's

607
00:30:50,279 --> 00:30:53,559
a blowout, it could be a twenty one point blowout, right,

608
00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:56,759
Like to ask Michigan to win this game by thirty

609
00:30:57,559 --> 00:30:58,880
I think is a lot.

610
00:30:59,000 --> 00:30:59,839
Speaker 2: So I like USC.

611
00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:05,920
Speaker 1: I think they do enough to hang around all right.

612
00:31:06,079 --> 00:31:08,799
So I'm I'm looking in the chat so I don't

613
00:31:08,839 --> 00:31:10,119
know if someone guessed it, but I'll get it.

614
00:31:10,119 --> 00:31:10,759
Speaker 2: I'll give it away.

615
00:31:10,799 --> 00:31:12,480
Speaker 1: This will This is a game I'll be at tonight

616
00:31:13,079 --> 00:31:18,440
Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee State, Murphy'sboro, Tennessee. It's where I'm

617
00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:22,519
headed this evening, big game in the Conference USA, the Glasshouse.

618
00:31:22,559 --> 00:31:25,079
It will be my first time ROB at the Glasshouse

619
00:31:25,079 --> 00:31:28,559
in Murphy's Borough. First time I think seeing either of

620
00:31:28,599 --> 00:31:31,039
these teams play in person, I'll have to I have

621
00:31:31,079 --> 00:31:32,920
to like try to think about that. I don't know,

622
00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:35,319
I don't know that I've ever seen Louisiana Tech or

623
00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:41,000
Middle Tennessee State play in person. My initial sort of

624
00:31:41,279 --> 00:31:45,240
gut reaction was that numbers kind of big. But then

625
00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:47,720
I kind of went through and did the math on this,

626
00:31:47,759 --> 00:31:50,359
and it my number comes out right right where this

627
00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:53,519
opened in like that five five and a half range.

628
00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:56,279
What you could see here are some points. Both these

629
00:31:56,319 --> 00:31:58,000
teams like to chuck it up from deep. So is

630
00:31:58,079 --> 00:32:01,559
this is this like a high variance type game to you, Robin?

631
00:32:01,640 --> 00:32:03,279
And how are you seeing this one on the total?

632
00:32:04,519 --> 00:32:07,400
Speaker 3: I just think Louisiana text tempo is way too slow

633
00:32:07,559 --> 00:32:10,599
to go for a bunch of points in this game.

634
00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:13,720
They'd have to make the visitor here would have to

635
00:32:13,759 --> 00:32:17,960
make a high percentage of shots fifty four percent. They

636
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:20,240
just don't take a lot of shots. Possessions are long

637
00:32:20,400 --> 00:32:24,640
drawn out with them. They's somewhat drawn out with Middle

638
00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:29,319
Tennessee as well for some reason. And I don't know why,

639
00:32:29,359 --> 00:32:33,960
because there's no real proof statistically or analytically, Adam for

640
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:36,279
me to make this statement that I just think Middle

641
00:32:36,319 --> 00:32:40,160
Tennessee is the better team, and this is coming just

642
00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:45,519
from oyes. Like I watched La Tech struggle offensively so

643
00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:49,319
much and be so turtle paced that maybe I'm just

644
00:32:49,359 --> 00:32:53,880
turned off by that particular style of play. But when

645
00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:56,359
I watch them TSU, I do see flashes at times

646
00:32:56,359 --> 00:33:01,079
of offensive creativity, ability to put the ball in the buckets.

647
00:33:01,119 --> 00:33:02,759
So when I first looked at it, I thought, well,

648
00:33:02,839 --> 00:33:05,119
let me look at MTSU. Maybe I want to play them,

649
00:33:05,799 --> 00:33:09,519
But you hit the brakes real quick when you're forced

650
00:33:09,559 --> 00:33:11,960
to lay six and a half with a team that's

651
00:33:12,799 --> 00:33:16,240
not especially good in any real area. I guess the

652
00:33:16,279 --> 00:33:22,160
best area off the chart here for MTSU is their

653
00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:25,079
three point defense. I don't know that that comes into

654
00:33:25,079 --> 00:33:28,319
play as a huge thing here against the Louisiana Tech

655
00:33:28,359 --> 00:33:30,599
team that can't make a three to save their lives.

656
00:33:30,599 --> 00:33:34,359
They have the eighth worst three point percentage in the

657
00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:38,000
college basketball right now, So I guess MTSU would beg

658
00:33:38,039 --> 00:33:40,000
them to shoot them. Go ahead and shoot them in

659
00:33:40,039 --> 00:33:46,119
our building. We'll take our chances. Very very small, slight

660
00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:49,039
opinion with the home team here. I just don't like

661
00:33:49,079 --> 00:33:50,680
the fact of laying six and a half to be

662
00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:54,920
honest with you, maybe I think in my mind the

663
00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:57,119
way to do this is probably try first half with

664
00:33:57,200 --> 00:33:59,039
the home team. It's a Friday night in front of

665
00:33:59,039 --> 00:34:02,319
a home crowd, it's a conference game, and generally I

666
00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:04,759
give a little bump to home teams on Friday nights

667
00:34:04,799 --> 00:34:08,440
because that tends to be the more ambitious crowd, the

668
00:34:08,519 --> 00:34:12,840
louder venue, the more the better atmosphere for them. So

669
00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:16,119
maybe first half because it shortens the number to the

670
00:34:16,159 --> 00:34:19,400
home team. You asked me to be the odds guy

671
00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:21,800
this morning, so I'm gonna get you this first half

672
00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:23,840
number right now, so I can just give it to

673
00:34:25,079 --> 00:34:28,840
folks here. First half spread in this game lat Tech

674
00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:33,239
happens to be lay three. You can lay it. There's

675
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:35,679
only a one three out there. One straight three and

676
00:34:35,679 --> 00:34:38,480
a half is the universal number here with MTSU. I

677
00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:41,039
guess that's the way I would look. But I'm not

678
00:34:41,119 --> 00:34:45,039
a big proponent of anything in this game. To tell

679
00:34:45,039 --> 00:34:45,280
you the.

680
00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:48,800
Speaker 1: Truth, Yeah, I'm gonna have to I'm gonna have to

681
00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:52,400
figure out what game I wrote the notes for in

682
00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:55,880
my spot for law Tech Middle Tennessee, because I very

683
00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:59,280
much misspoke. These two teams do not fire shots up

684
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:01,440
like that, and I am now I got to figure

685
00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:03,440
out what I got that confused with. It just goes

686
00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:05,760
to show I mean, listen, when you're trying to track

687
00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:07,800
this many teams, it's like this is part of the

688
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:09,840
reason I get out, get to different parts of the country,

689
00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:12,679
different arenas. I don't know much about these two teams,

690
00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:14,679
and that's so I'm not you know, I'm I'm there

691
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:19,199
more to well because it's it was with all the

692
00:35:19,239 --> 00:35:22,519
delays I had traveling. I'm trying to go visit some

693
00:35:22,559 --> 00:35:24,360
family in Texas. I've been trying to get there for

694
00:35:24,519 --> 00:35:27,800
a week and we had the like worst weather that

695
00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:30,039
we've had in like a long time, so I couldn't

696
00:35:30,039 --> 00:35:31,519
get out. This one just kind of fell into my

697
00:35:31,599 --> 00:35:33,880
lap in terms of like where I am and what

698
00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:37,119
I can make it to tonight. And yeah, I mean,

699
00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:39,719
like I said, my number on the side and I'm

700
00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:41,880
more of a side better anyway, came right out on

701
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:45,320
this number. My If I were to trust my power

702
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:47,760
rankings for these two teams, which I really don't, I

703
00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:50,119
don't think I've bet either of these team teams all year,

704
00:35:50,519 --> 00:35:53,840
I would say like there's a slight lean toward the

705
00:35:53,880 --> 00:35:55,920
dog at five and a half and I think that's

706
00:35:55,960 --> 00:35:58,280
what you were kind of alluding to as well. But

707
00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:02,280
again it will be I will be interested to get

708
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:04,760
to see these teams up close and see if I

709
00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:07,199
can you know, take something going forward.

710
00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:10,199
Speaker 2: But yeah, that is a when.

711
00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:12,639
Speaker 1: You look at this off, it's I'm wondering why people

712
00:36:12,639 --> 00:36:14,360
in the chat weren't like what is he talking about?

713
00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:17,000
Because these two teams are like both pretty on paper,

714
00:36:17,079 --> 00:36:22,360
poor offensively. So again it's, uh, you know, the the

715
00:36:22,519 --> 00:36:25,800
takeaway here for me, I'll be there. If anyone's in

716
00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:27,360
Murphy's Borrow and wants to go to the game, I

717
00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:29,480
can probably get you to the game too, So hit

718
00:36:29,519 --> 00:36:31,960
me up. I don't know, I don't know, uh that

719
00:36:32,039 --> 00:36:34,119
we have many you know people in the chat that

720
00:36:34,199 --> 00:36:38,000
are like, you know, Murphy's Burrow, you know, residents route,

721
00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:38,559
but maybe we do.

722
00:36:38,639 --> 00:36:39,119
Speaker 2: You never know.

723
00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:42,079
Speaker 1: Part part of what I love is is meeting you

724
00:36:42,119 --> 00:36:44,000
guys out on the road. So so let me know,

725
00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:49,320
and yeah we will, uh we will move on. Let's

726
00:36:49,320 --> 00:36:52,000
see a couple of people. Here's here's Steve, but like

727
00:36:52,119 --> 00:36:56,119
five people asked about this. One wants to talk Seattle

728
00:36:56,159 --> 00:37:00,239
Gonzaga and so this is a this is an other

729
00:37:00,480 --> 00:37:05,519
massive number. You know, I've been singing the praises. Sorry,

730
00:37:05,559 --> 00:37:07,559
my screen's going nuts here. I've been singing the praises

731
00:37:07,559 --> 00:37:10,320
of Seattle right like they come out they knock off

732
00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:13,880
Washington I was on them in that game. I used

733
00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:16,400
them for the parlay earlier in the week. They came

734
00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:19,159
out and ended up covering the second, had a pretty

735
00:37:19,159 --> 00:37:24,079
big second half covered against Washington State. Now they're twenty

736
00:37:24,079 --> 00:37:27,199
three and a half, twenty three point dog to Gonzaga,

737
00:37:27,199 --> 00:37:31,119
and it's pretty warranted. I don't know if I'd lay

738
00:37:31,119 --> 00:37:33,719
it with Gonzaga, but I'm certainly not taking Seattle here.

739
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:36,000
This this could be one that gets ugly.

740
00:37:36,039 --> 00:37:36,719
Speaker 2: What do you think of.

741
00:37:38,679 --> 00:37:41,880
Speaker 3: I think they've played nobody in this weight class all

742
00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:44,360
season long, So we can say whatever we want to

743
00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:47,599
say about Seattle, whether it be positive or negative. I

744
00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:51,639
just this is a major, major step up in class.

745
00:37:52,239 --> 00:37:55,400
And when you walk in, you know, with a twelve

746
00:37:55,480 --> 00:37:59,039
and three record into Kenzaga, I'm pretty sure Mark Fugh

747
00:37:59,119 --> 00:38:02,519
is gonna take them fairly seriously. I know Gonzaga has

748
00:38:02,559 --> 00:38:04,760
a lot of these games that are cake walks, even

749
00:38:04,800 --> 00:38:08,480
inside the conference where maybe the other side doesn't attract

750
00:38:08,519 --> 00:38:13,199
their interest and this this Seattle team in state, gonna

751
00:38:13,199 --> 00:38:17,280
walk in fairly confident, got some nice numbers, but again

752
00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:22,159
it's posted against nobody inside of the top one hundred

753
00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:25,000
as far as analytical ratings are concerned. In fact, you

754
00:38:25,079 --> 00:38:30,079
find very few inside the top one ten. So now

755
00:38:30,079 --> 00:38:32,239
you're gonna march out there and play Gonzaga's side. You're

756
00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:36,360
gonna play Gonzaga's defense, You're gonna play Gonzaga's athleticism, and

757
00:38:36,639 --> 00:38:39,079
I just don't know that Seattle matches up. Again. I

758
00:38:39,119 --> 00:38:41,639
talked about this in the Sienna Iona game. We talk

759
00:38:41,679 --> 00:38:43,920
about it a lot. The one thing you always have

760
00:38:44,039 --> 00:38:48,159
to consider on these home floors that are fairly good

761
00:38:48,199 --> 00:38:52,159
for the home team is you can't be susceptible to

762
00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:56,559
these huge quick runs which Gonzaga is famous for. Gonzaga

763
00:38:56,599 --> 00:38:59,440
is famous for going on a fifteen oh run, you know,

764
00:38:59,519 --> 00:39:02,880
with eight minutes left in the first half or something,

765
00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:04,960
and then you just never get back in the game.

766
00:39:05,519 --> 00:39:07,360
If you're Seattle. I think there's a lot of fight

767
00:39:07,400 --> 00:39:08,920
in the Seattle team. I think there's a lot of

768
00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:12,159
good about Seattle going forward inside conference. I just don't

769
00:39:12,159 --> 00:39:14,119
know that even with this amount of points, I would

770
00:39:14,119 --> 00:39:17,480
trust them against Gonzaga. That being said, Gonzaga has to

771
00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:19,679
be motivated, and I guess my mind is telling me

772
00:39:19,679 --> 00:39:22,679
they'll be focused for this game again. Another Friday night

773
00:39:23,199 --> 00:39:26,079
in the kennel. That's as tough a place to play

774
00:39:26,079 --> 00:39:29,039
as any. Not sure Seattle walks in and gets anything

775
00:39:29,079 --> 00:39:33,280
done here. So if they get behind early, Adam, it's

776
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:36,679
tough to chase Gonzaga. It's really tough to chase because

777
00:39:36,679 --> 00:39:41,239
you lose the boards. In most instances, they get out

778
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:44,480
on the break and extend leads and margins. I don't know,

779
00:39:44,599 --> 00:39:46,400
I just wouldn't watch Seattle in this instance.

780
00:39:48,119 --> 00:39:50,199
Speaker 2: Yeah, someone was like, what's the chatter in the background.

781
00:39:50,199 --> 00:39:52,280
Speaker 1: I'm in a lobby right now, But like, you know what,

782
00:39:52,400 --> 00:39:54,920
like I would say, almost every other employee at this

783
00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:57,639
company probably would have just canceled the show. That's not Trigg,

784
00:39:57,760 --> 00:39:59,760
He says, you know what, let's let's fire up the

785
00:39:59,800 --> 00:40:00,639
inner that connection.

786
00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:03,320
Speaker 2: We don't get a ship, so let them talk.

787
00:40:03,360 --> 00:40:05,920
Speaker 1: It's not gonna, not gonna, not gonna deter us from

788
00:40:05,960 --> 00:40:09,519
talking Seattle Gonzaga. My thing here with the Zags or

789
00:40:09,519 --> 00:40:13,679
with Seattle, Like I complimented their bigs and how how

790
00:40:14,280 --> 00:40:19,119
impressive their bigs were against Heinstein Steinback and the Washington bigs.

791
00:40:20,119 --> 00:40:22,800
Gonzaga is tough to be like, you know those the

792
00:40:23,039 --> 00:40:28,920
Gonzaga frontline is so good. It's much better than Washington's right, Like,

793
00:40:29,480 --> 00:40:31,559
and if if Seattle's not able to get some of

794
00:40:31,559 --> 00:40:33,920
those easy points at the rim and now they're starting

795
00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:35,840
to get pushed out behind the arc. It's not that

796
00:40:35,880 --> 00:40:38,039
they don't have a couple of shooters, but man, like,

797
00:40:38,199 --> 00:40:40,519
I'm with you, I feel like there's a knockout punch

798
00:40:40,559 --> 00:40:43,440
here somewhere for the Zags. So this might be a

799
00:40:43,480 --> 00:40:46,599
game because that number is so big and even if

800
00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:49,400
Gonzaga doesn't land the knockout blow it, you know, it

801
00:40:49,400 --> 00:40:52,039
could be twenty four whatever, whatever you might say, this

802
00:40:52,119 --> 00:40:55,000
might be the game where it's like, maybe you play

803
00:40:55,000 --> 00:40:57,159
Gonzaga first half and if it doesn't hit come over

804
00:40:57,199 --> 00:40:59,920
the top with the second half, maybe you go live

805
00:41:00,079 --> 00:41:01,840
and wait and see if you can catch a little

806
00:41:01,840 --> 00:41:04,440
bit of a lull and then jump in on Gonzaga live.

807
00:41:04,519 --> 00:41:07,119
But Rob, I think the most competent thing I have

808
00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:10,679
for this game is that at some point Zags are

809
00:41:10,679 --> 00:41:13,199
going to go on like the run that you speak of,

810
00:41:13,639 --> 00:41:15,599
and if you time it out right you can make

811
00:41:15,639 --> 00:41:16,440
some money doing that.

812
00:41:18,480 --> 00:41:20,639
Speaker 3: Yeah, in game gotta love the guy who invented in

813
00:41:20,719 --> 00:41:21,519
game for us.

814
00:41:24,199 --> 00:41:26,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, listen, you you catch a little lull

815
00:41:26,840 --> 00:41:29,639
where Seattle goes on a little runner, Gonzaga doesn't score

816
00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:32,719
for a minute, suddenly that that number ticks down, and

817
00:41:32,760 --> 00:41:35,760
then you get the you know, the ten points and

818
00:41:35,800 --> 00:41:38,079
in a minute and a half from Gonzaga, which is

819
00:41:38,079 --> 00:41:41,280
is very very possible. So yeah, no play there for me.

820
00:41:41,360 --> 00:41:43,400
But that's that's another one to be the first time

821
00:41:43,840 --> 00:41:47,679
we're seeing Seattle Gonzaga as a West Coast Conference game,

822
00:41:47,719 --> 00:41:51,960
so so very very interesting game to watch right there.

823
00:41:53,039 --> 00:41:57,440
Another interesting one, I guess for some people the John

824
00:41:57,519 --> 00:42:01,239
dunboll if you will, Saint Peter's Marist. Of course, John

825
00:42:01,320 --> 00:42:06,880
Dunn Saint Peter's coach for a long time, probably one

826
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:10,400
of the few people ever robbed the lateral move of

827
00:42:10,519 --> 00:42:14,000
lateral moves right moving from Saint Peter's to Marist, although

828
00:42:14,039 --> 00:42:17,280
actually Marist is a much nicer campus and definitely has

829
00:42:17,280 --> 00:42:19,920
more money in the athletic department, so that's probably why

830
00:42:19,960 --> 00:42:22,159
he did that. He's now been at Maris for a

831
00:42:22,199 --> 00:42:26,199
while and he's now playing John Done basketball, which is

832
00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:31,159
just as ugly as as humanly possible and try to

833
00:42:31,159 --> 00:42:33,360
defend your way to a win. But he's done a

834
00:42:33,400 --> 00:42:35,639
good job of that, you know, to this point. So

835
00:42:37,599 --> 00:42:39,559
number was right on the money here for me. But

836
00:42:39,639 --> 00:42:41,960
I like this Marit's team. I think Maris could factor

837
00:42:42,000 --> 00:42:45,679
into the MAC this year. They're really good. I leaned

838
00:42:45,719 --> 00:42:47,960
toward the Red Foxes. Do you have anything on the total?

839
00:42:49,599 --> 00:42:52,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, I can't believe the movement in the total total's

840
00:42:52,280 --> 00:42:55,280
gone from one twenty six, which to me I would

841
00:42:55,320 --> 00:42:58,119
still consider under to one thirty two and a half,

842
00:42:58,679 --> 00:43:01,519
a six and a half point upward move in a

843
00:43:01,639 --> 00:43:07,239
Maret Saint Peter's game, somehow just doesn't correlate with the

844
00:43:07,239 --> 00:43:09,760
way I think about this game being played out, Adam,

845
00:43:09,800 --> 00:43:13,559
So I'm gonna have to investigate it a little bit further.

846
00:43:13,639 --> 00:43:16,039
There's been a lot of Saint Peter's money games going

847
00:43:16,119 --> 00:43:17,960
from four and a half down to two and a

848
00:43:18,000 --> 00:43:21,599
half playing the home team. I do not have a

849
00:43:21,760 --> 00:43:24,800
good grip on whether or not there's an injury situation

850
00:43:25,039 --> 00:43:29,039
in this game that could have led to the pull

851
00:43:29,119 --> 00:43:31,480
towards Saint Pete, or whether it's just folks who think

852
00:43:32,119 --> 00:43:35,119
Saint Pete's gonna come out shooting red hot tonight to

853
00:43:35,159 --> 00:43:37,199
force the game over and they're gonna win. I just

854
00:43:37,840 --> 00:43:40,239
I can't agree with either of those theories here at

855
00:43:40,239 --> 00:43:42,360
this point. I would think that at one thirty two

856
00:43:42,400 --> 00:43:45,440
and a half, you have to I mean, just out

857
00:43:45,480 --> 00:43:48,079
of principle, I think you have to push back at

858
00:43:48,079 --> 00:43:50,760
that total and bet under one thirty two and a

859
00:43:50,800 --> 00:43:53,159
half with the odds maker. What the numbers are telling

860
00:43:53,199 --> 00:43:56,320
us right now, Adam, is this game's gonna end sixty

861
00:43:56,360 --> 00:43:59,840
seven to sixty five mayrist or sixty eight sixty five May.

862
00:44:00,920 --> 00:44:02,880
And I just don't know that either one of these

863
00:44:02,880 --> 00:44:05,519
teams finds their way to the high sixties in this game.

864
00:44:05,599 --> 00:44:08,559
So for me, again, I haven't played it, and I'm

865
00:44:08,559 --> 00:44:10,480
gonna look into it a little deeper here to see

866
00:44:10,480 --> 00:44:15,440
why the the rather substantial line moves have occurred. But

867
00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:18,840
my goodness, one thirty two and a half in this game,

868
00:44:19,000 --> 00:44:21,480
just again, just out of principle, I think i'd have

869
00:44:21,519 --> 00:44:22,119
to push back.

870
00:44:23,360 --> 00:44:25,559
Speaker 1: Yeah, I actually just saw that move to the UH

871
00:44:25,880 --> 00:44:27,599
to the spread. I didn't realize it moved all the

872
00:44:27,639 --> 00:44:31,280
way down to two and a half. Disagree strongly. I'm

873
00:44:31,679 --> 00:44:34,559
even I'm considering playing Maris at two and a half.

874
00:44:34,599 --> 00:44:37,400
I don't know that they have like one guy, two

875
00:44:37,559 --> 00:44:41,000
guys or what like that that would really like the way,

876
00:44:41,719 --> 00:44:43,880
you know, this isn't the Maris teams of a couple

877
00:44:43,920 --> 00:44:46,400
of years ago. I can't remember his name, maybe Gardner,

878
00:44:46,400 --> 00:44:49,800
Patrick Gardner, that the big guy that they pretty much

879
00:44:50,199 --> 00:44:52,119
was a one man show and then everyone else just

880
00:44:52,119 --> 00:44:54,679
played defense. Like it's much more of a team and

881
00:44:54,719 --> 00:44:57,039
that's why they're better than they were a couple of

882
00:44:57,079 --> 00:44:59,800
years back when it was like one guy providing all

883
00:44:59,840 --> 00:45:03,960
the offense and then everyone else just plays defense. But man, like,

884
00:45:04,039 --> 00:45:07,239
this is not the first time the market has faded

885
00:45:07,480 --> 00:45:11,199
Merist and I just think that's wrong. I there's nothing

886
00:45:11,360 --> 00:45:14,840
that Saint Peter's like brings to the tape this year

887
00:45:15,280 --> 00:45:18,639
that justifies that move. I talked to my my buddy

888
00:45:18,639 --> 00:45:21,559
Fairfield Frank, who's great, great account on Twitter, especially if

889
00:45:21,559 --> 00:45:24,920
you're following Fairfield Sports, and you know, they they felt

890
00:45:24,920 --> 00:45:26,960
like they really kind of give gave that game away

891
00:45:27,039 --> 00:45:29,880
to Saint Peter's the other day. It was the game

892
00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:33,679
that Fairfield kind of had until they didn't. Yeah, I

893
00:45:34,519 --> 00:45:37,719
strongly disagree with that, pretty strongly into Marrist at two

894
00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:42,679
and a half. All right, Rob, it is ten forty five.

895
00:45:42,760 --> 00:45:43,960
Do you have an idea of where you want to

896
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:44,719
go for the parlay?

897
00:45:45,239 --> 00:45:48,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's go. And you know what, I'm gonna make

898
00:45:48,320 --> 00:45:51,559
people stay up late tonight. This is if our front

899
00:45:51,679 --> 00:45:57,199
end hits stay up late. Notre Dame and cal acc matchup.

900
00:45:58,199 --> 00:46:00,719
You want to talk about ugly basket Well, trying to

901
00:46:00,800 --> 00:46:03,679
actually watch Stanford Notre Dame the other night, you'd rather

902
00:46:03,760 --> 00:46:06,840
peel your eyelids out. It was horrendous forty seven to

903
00:46:06,960 --> 00:46:09,719
forty final. It's almost as if the shot clock, you know,

904
00:46:09,840 --> 00:46:14,199
the four corners under Dean Smith and Phil Ford had reappeared.

905
00:46:15,280 --> 00:46:18,199
I can't see that happening again here, honestly. Now for

906
00:46:18,440 --> 00:46:23,239
Notre Dame, I can understand. Obviously Shrewsbury plays slow and

907
00:46:23,280 --> 00:46:25,800
you probably want to play even slower without Marcus Burton.

908
00:46:25,840 --> 00:46:28,400
He's not going to be available again as Notre Dame's

909
00:46:28,480 --> 00:46:32,840
leading scorer. But to do it to Stanford is one thing.

910
00:46:32,880 --> 00:46:34,239
I don't think they're going to do it to Mark

911
00:46:34,239 --> 00:46:38,000
Madson and cal. One reason why is because to me,

912
00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:41,400
this is a huge I mean, I'm not going out

913
00:46:41,440 --> 00:46:42,880
on the limb here, but it's a huge step down

914
00:46:42,920 --> 00:46:46,719
in class. They just played Louisville. So when you come

915
00:46:46,800 --> 00:46:51,440
off of playing a Louisville team get buried by twenty

916
00:46:51,960 --> 00:46:54,639
on your home floor, now you're back on your home floor.

917
00:46:54,679 --> 00:46:57,760
You get the complete opposite of Louisville in Notre Dame,

918
00:46:58,480 --> 00:47:02,519
as far as skill level is concerned, as far as

919
00:47:02,559 --> 00:47:05,000
pace is concerned, as far as almost everything is concerned,

920
00:47:05,159 --> 00:47:07,480
and Notre Dame will turn the ball over at him.

921
00:47:07,559 --> 00:47:11,800
For what it's worth, California is a really, really good

922
00:47:11,800 --> 00:47:16,320
shooting basketball team. You know, you put California up profile

923
00:47:16,440 --> 00:47:20,320
wise against Stanford, and while Stanford's got a couple of

924
00:47:20,400 --> 00:47:23,840
nice players, including their point guard, Col's way more well

925
00:47:23,960 --> 00:47:27,320
rounded offensively. They have much more ability to score the basketball.

926
00:47:27,360 --> 00:47:31,679
I think, listen, if you're the Cal coach, if you're

927
00:47:31,760 --> 00:47:34,079
Mark Madson, and you see what just went on in

928
00:47:34,119 --> 00:47:36,119
that Notre Dame game together night, the first thing you're

929
00:47:36,119 --> 00:47:38,280
telling your team is that ain't happening to us. This

930
00:47:38,360 --> 00:47:40,920
game's not going to be forty seven to forty. For

931
00:47:40,960 --> 00:47:44,679
that reason, I like a few things here. I'm gonna

932
00:47:44,719 --> 00:47:47,559
pick one. I kind of like the Cal team total

933
00:47:48,199 --> 00:47:51,360
to get over the number now depends where you shop,

934
00:47:51,480 --> 00:47:56,760
because the number varies. I see anywhere from sixty nine

935
00:47:56,800 --> 00:47:59,119
and a half to seventy one and a half. So

936
00:47:59,320 --> 00:48:01,880
because they're so how much variance, I won't use that

937
00:48:02,000 --> 00:48:04,519
here on the show. But what I will use is

938
00:48:04,599 --> 00:48:07,360
CAL first half here. This number's gone up by the way.

939
00:48:07,400 --> 00:48:10,440
Full game has gone up to where Cal is now

940
00:48:10,480 --> 00:48:13,760
a five point favorite at a lot of venues. But

941
00:48:13,880 --> 00:48:17,079
first half you can still find Cal very readily available

942
00:48:17,079 --> 00:48:20,000
at only minus two. I think Madsin's going to have

943
00:48:20,039 --> 00:48:24,239
the team ready. Notre Dame's offensive output is not good

944
00:48:24,239 --> 00:48:26,719
at this point in time. I think Cal will try

945
00:48:26,760 --> 00:48:28,840
and take charge of pace on their home floor here

946
00:48:28,880 --> 00:48:31,719
and again off the loss to Louisville in this just

947
00:48:31,760 --> 00:48:33,559
being a step down in class, That's kind of my

948
00:48:33,639 --> 00:48:35,360
way to go here. I think Cal comes out early

949
00:48:35,440 --> 00:48:37,920
and often here wins the first half by more than two.

950
00:48:37,960 --> 00:48:39,239
So my leg of the part is going to be

951
00:48:39,280 --> 00:48:41,079
Cal first half minus two points.

952
00:48:42,800 --> 00:48:44,920
Speaker 1: I very much agree, and I'm going to give some

953
00:48:45,320 --> 00:48:47,599
info as to why I agree, but real quick, I

954
00:48:47,639 --> 00:48:50,519
just want to acknowledge Paul Powell. In the chat, he says,

955
00:48:50,519 --> 00:48:52,719
big fan of you and Rob, thank you so much.

956
00:48:52,719 --> 00:48:56,280
We appreciate that. We appreciate the donation. Michigan State Nebraska

957
00:48:56,360 --> 00:48:58,079
was the feature game today, so we already did ten

958
00:48:58,119 --> 00:49:01,199
minutes on Michigan State Nebraska at the beginning of the show.

959
00:49:01,239 --> 00:49:03,119
You can always go to the Wager Talking YouTube channel

960
00:49:03,199 --> 00:49:07,199
check out the replay. But Paul I will let you

961
00:49:07,239 --> 00:49:10,079
pick another game, a different game, and I'll have my

962
00:49:10,159 --> 00:49:12,440
eye on the chat. You don't need to attach another

963
00:49:12,480 --> 00:49:14,599
donation to it. Just drop it in the chat and

964
00:49:15,039 --> 00:49:17,320
we'll close the show or whatever you want to talk about.

965
00:49:17,320 --> 00:49:19,960
But in the meantime, Rob, I agree with you. I

966
00:49:19,960 --> 00:49:24,360
agree with the move. I was very anti Cal and

967
00:49:24,480 --> 00:49:27,159
still kind of am. I still I'm still anti Cal,

968
00:49:27,280 --> 00:49:31,039
like in general, but they have I've come around to

969
00:49:31,119 --> 00:49:34,000
thinking they're like not the worst team in the ACC,

970
00:49:34,239 --> 00:49:35,960
which is kind of where I had them rated coming

971
00:49:35,960 --> 00:49:38,800
into the season. I still think twelve and two is

972
00:49:38,800 --> 00:49:41,039
a little deceiving, you know, kind of a little bit

973
00:49:41,079 --> 00:49:42,519
of an easier non conference schedule.

974
00:49:42,559 --> 00:49:45,440
Speaker 2: But you know this, like Data Aims has been awesome.

975
00:49:45,800 --> 00:49:47,599
Speaker 1: He was someone that I kind of you know, I

976
00:49:47,639 --> 00:49:50,280
got to see Kansas State play a couple of times

977
00:49:50,519 --> 00:49:54,599
the year that he was there, and it was I

978
00:49:54,599 --> 00:49:56,559
guess like for me, like he's always been. He's been

979
00:49:56,559 --> 00:49:59,159
a disappointment for me at this point because I remember

980
00:49:59,159 --> 00:50:01,239
when he got to Kansas State, thought he was going

981
00:50:01,320 --> 00:50:02,880
to be great, didn't pan out.

982
00:50:03,159 --> 00:50:04,679
Speaker 2: Ghost of Virginia was worse.

983
00:50:04,800 --> 00:50:06,840
Speaker 1: Right, So it's almost like, but I guess the third

984
00:50:06,840 --> 00:50:09,519
time is the charm because he has been by like,

985
00:50:09,639 --> 00:50:12,000
he's been their best player, seventeen point two points per game.

986
00:50:12,360 --> 00:50:16,880
And you know there's a Syracuse I guess you'd.

987
00:50:16,679 --> 00:50:17,920
Speaker 2: Call him a cast off.

988
00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:22,000
Speaker 1: Another one of the guys that will will typical Syracuse basketball,

989
00:50:22,039 --> 00:50:24,159
he'll go somewhere else and play better, and that is

990
00:50:24,239 --> 00:50:24,719
Chris Bell.

991
00:50:25,559 --> 00:50:26,280
Speaker 2: And he's been good.

992
00:50:26,320 --> 00:50:29,199
Speaker 1: And I you know, when Cal assembled this roster, I said, man,

993
00:50:29,239 --> 00:50:33,039
they went to they went to losing programs and got

994
00:50:33,679 --> 00:50:36,159
kind of okay players, you know what I mean, Like, no,

995
00:50:36,159 --> 00:50:39,079
none of the players they brought in we're at programs

996
00:50:39,119 --> 00:50:42,079
with like a pedigree of winning. And that was like

997
00:50:42,119 --> 00:50:44,079
a little bit of a concern to me. But you know,

998
00:50:44,119 --> 00:50:47,639
to mad sense credit he is. He's I think he's

999
00:50:47,679 --> 00:50:50,400
doing a pretty good job. And to this game right here,

1000
00:50:50,840 --> 00:50:53,360
you know, Notre Dame was able to what was the

1001
00:50:53,639 --> 00:50:58,360
forty seven to forty against Stanford just a Cal is

1002
00:50:58,400 --> 00:50:59,920
not gonna You're not gonna be able to hold Cal

1003
00:51:00,079 --> 00:51:03,559
the forty points, in my opinion, and I think that's

1004
00:51:03,800 --> 00:51:05,840
will be the undoing here for a notre game. So

1005
00:51:06,239 --> 00:51:08,760
I leaned Col's way before the move. I won't be

1006
00:51:08,800 --> 00:51:11,039
betting the full game, but I think you're onto something

1007
00:51:11,039 --> 00:51:11,719
with the first half.

1008
00:51:11,840 --> 00:51:14,920
Speaker 3: I like that look, and I gotta be fair. I

1009
00:51:14,960 --> 00:51:17,159
know you'll you'll record it at the end of the show,

1010
00:51:17,159 --> 00:51:19,719
but as we're sitting here and again, lines move. As

1011
00:51:19,760 --> 00:51:21,639
we do this show every morning, we probably do it

1012
00:51:21,679 --> 00:51:24,400
at a really good time ten to eleven Eastern Time.

1013
00:51:24,880 --> 00:51:28,480
But just to be fair to the viewers here, Adam,

1014
00:51:29,079 --> 00:51:31,400
this line first half has now gone two and a

1015
00:51:31,480 --> 00:51:35,000
half across the board, so no more two is available

1016
00:51:35,039 --> 00:51:37,360
that I can see. Don't want to give you a

1017
00:51:37,440 --> 00:51:39,360
number that you can't get, so we're gonna for the

1018
00:51:39,360 --> 00:51:41,280
parlay leg. We'll call it minus two and a half.

1019
00:51:44,199 --> 00:51:47,320
Speaker 1: Right, and again, Paul, Paul, we appreciate the donation, and

1020
00:51:47,320 --> 00:51:49,800
again we did hit your game. It's just you're gonna

1021
00:51:49,800 --> 00:51:52,719
have to rewind to the beginning of the show, and

1022
00:51:52,760 --> 00:51:54,679
we did. We kind of did a probably the most

1023
00:51:54,760 --> 00:51:57,800
thorough breakdown of that game. Ten minutes on Michigan State Nebraska.

1024
00:51:57,920 --> 00:52:00,760
So just to pull up the replay, Brian said he

1025
00:52:00,760 --> 00:52:02,679
wasn't complaining about the chatter thought he and people in

1026
00:52:02,719 --> 00:52:03,400
his other room.

1027
00:52:03,599 --> 00:52:04,360
Speaker 2: No, it's all good.

1028
00:52:04,480 --> 00:52:07,199
Speaker 1: I'm just I'm just saying, we you know, we'll play

1029
00:52:07,239 --> 00:52:09,079
a road game if we have to here, we we'll

1030
00:52:09,199 --> 00:52:12,440
you know, hostile environment doesn't matter. Rob we're getting we're

1031
00:52:12,480 --> 00:52:15,039
getting our shots up. That's that's how this that's how

1032
00:52:15,039 --> 00:52:19,320
we roll on this show right here. So we do

1033
00:52:19,400 --> 00:52:21,599
have we do have a few minutes left. Let's get

1034
00:52:21,599 --> 00:52:24,440
to one more game we have the Harley is locked

1035
00:52:24,440 --> 00:52:26,920
in and I'll recap that at the end of the show.

1036
00:52:28,480 --> 00:52:30,559
Speaker 3: And I'll know I've been real quick. While you look

1037
00:52:30,599 --> 00:52:33,559
up which game we want to talk about here? Speaking

1038
00:52:33,599 --> 00:52:35,119
of line moves as we do the show here, we

1039
00:52:35,159 --> 00:52:37,880
did talk about New Mexico State FIU first game on

1040
00:52:37,920 --> 00:52:40,239
the board today. People want to know about the early game,

1041
00:52:40,920 --> 00:52:43,960
and I did give somewhat of a lean toward over

1042
00:52:44,039 --> 00:52:47,000
this game. Now, Adam one fifty five and a half

1043
00:52:47,039 --> 00:52:49,519
a two and a half point move. This one was

1044
00:52:49,599 --> 00:52:55,679
hit simultaneously. So some syndicate group out there likes over

1045
00:52:55,760 --> 00:52:58,199
one fifty five and a half Now that number can't

1046
00:52:58,199 --> 00:53:00,239
get the one fifty three and a halfs any more.

1047
00:53:03,400 --> 00:53:05,519
Speaker 1: I think I found the game people want to talk about.

1048
00:53:05,559 --> 00:53:09,880
We'll stay with the always gives me a good chuckle

1049
00:53:09,880 --> 00:53:11,920
that we're calling this an ACC game, but it is

1050
00:53:12,239 --> 00:53:17,079
Stanford Louisville. You know, the fact that those two Cal

1051
00:53:17,159 --> 00:53:20,400
Notre Dame and Stanford Louisville are ACC games will will

1052
00:53:20,440 --> 00:53:22,199
never cease to amaze me. But that's what we do

1053
00:53:22,320 --> 00:53:26,199
to accommodate football. Apparently rob is just throw a couple

1054
00:53:26,239 --> 00:53:29,880
of Pacific Coast teams in the Atlantic Coast Conference. But

1055
00:53:30,920 --> 00:53:32,760
this one is not a late game, even though it

1056
00:53:32,800 --> 00:53:36,000
isn't Maples Pavilion Louisville on the road.

1057
00:53:36,119 --> 00:53:39,360
Speaker 2: They just smashed Cal. Do they smash their rival Stanford

1058
00:53:39,400 --> 00:53:40,280
tonight is the question.

1059
00:53:41,960 --> 00:53:44,599
Speaker 3: I mean, I think they can definitely. It was ninety

1060
00:53:44,639 --> 00:53:47,360
seventy the other night. I said earlier that I think

1061
00:53:47,400 --> 00:53:49,679
if I put the profiles of Cal and Stanford up

1062
00:53:49,679 --> 00:53:51,760
next to each other, I think Cal is slightly better

1063
00:53:51,800 --> 00:53:54,960
and a lot of categories, not majorly better, but slightly

1064
00:53:54,960 --> 00:53:56,400
better in a lot of categories. You have to have

1065
00:53:56,440 --> 00:53:59,559
a lot of respect for Stanford at a couple of

1066
00:53:59,559 --> 00:54:03,400
positions especially at point guard, where they're very, very good. However,

1067
00:54:05,920 --> 00:54:07,880
I have written in my notes here Adam as I

1068
00:54:07,960 --> 00:54:12,079
just looked at him quickly, Stanford too small defensively. I

1069
00:54:12,079 --> 00:54:17,679
don't know that defensively they can stop Louisville especially. You know,

1070
00:54:17,719 --> 00:54:21,320
we've talked about Pat Kelcey a lot. He plays one way,

1071
00:54:21,480 --> 00:54:23,880
and they play it well up and down the floor.

1072
00:54:24,679 --> 00:54:27,760
They're tough to defend, They're tough to for Stanford. They're

1073
00:54:27,800 --> 00:54:29,480
going to be tough to out rebound. They're going to

1074
00:54:29,559 --> 00:54:33,000
be tough from stopping getting to the rim. All of

1075
00:54:33,039 --> 00:54:37,800
these things combined. And my first inclination in this game

1076
00:54:37,840 --> 00:54:40,119
off to forty seven to forty was I want to

1077
00:54:40,159 --> 00:54:43,159
play this game over over. One fifty seven and a

1078
00:54:43,159 --> 00:54:45,519
half is now become one fifty eight. They got the

1079
00:54:45,599 --> 00:54:49,920
one sixty against Cal. Cal has a little more offensive

1080
00:54:49,920 --> 00:54:52,800
fire privatey. Cal's got three starters who shoot better than

1081
00:54:52,800 --> 00:54:57,079
forty one percent from three. Stanford doesn't necessarily have that,

1082
00:54:57,920 --> 00:55:01,559
and so seeing Cal only get seventy kind of made

1083
00:55:01,599 --> 00:55:04,400
me backtrack off of that total. Don't know that I

1084
00:55:04,559 --> 00:55:08,119
like either side the team, although the Louisville team total

1085
00:55:08,159 --> 00:55:10,159
would be the one I would lean on for sure,

1086
00:55:12,400 --> 00:55:15,119
back to back blowouts inside conference are difficult, but I

1087
00:55:15,159 --> 00:55:18,280
think if Louisville was going to have trouble on a

1088
00:55:18,280 --> 00:55:22,159
West Coast swing, it would have been in the first game. Here.

1089
00:55:22,199 --> 00:55:25,440
They've got rest unless they get cocky at him. I

1090
00:55:25,480 --> 00:55:28,599
don't know that. You know, they don't beat Stanford by

1091
00:55:28,639 --> 00:55:31,159
ten points here. So my initial lean, like I say,

1092
00:55:31,280 --> 00:55:33,719
was to play this full game over. I think Louisville

1093
00:55:33,760 --> 00:55:36,559
can definitely get beyond the number here. We'll see how

1094
00:55:36,559 --> 00:55:36,960
it goes.

1095
00:55:38,920 --> 00:55:42,400
Speaker 1: Andy on total coincidence that so he I saw his comment.

1096
00:55:42,480 --> 00:55:44,639
He's like, can you can you get my super chat,

1097
00:55:44,679 --> 00:55:48,000
which is I believe the term for attaching the donation.

1098
00:55:48,119 --> 00:55:49,880
Speaker 2: I just did you learn something new every day?

1099
00:55:50,480 --> 00:55:53,800
Speaker 1: But anyway, he so, thank you for the donation, super chat,

1100
00:55:53,800 --> 00:55:55,599
whatever you want to call it. We appreciate it. And

1101
00:55:56,079 --> 00:55:58,519
he was asking about this game. So that was total coincidence.

1102
00:55:58,880 --> 00:56:01,079
But I'm glad we ended with this one.

1103
00:56:01,480 --> 00:56:02,159
Speaker 2: Rob. I'm with you.

1104
00:56:02,199 --> 00:56:05,840
Speaker 1: I think that I have real concerns with like Louisville

1105
00:56:05,880 --> 00:56:07,840
just going bombs away from three. I know they haven't

1106
00:56:07,880 --> 00:56:11,400
shot it like great collectively on the road this season

1107
00:56:11,800 --> 00:56:17,679
to this point. But Stanford, you know, they'll go into

1108
00:56:17,719 --> 00:56:20,559
his zone, like I had Northridge last week against Stanford,

1109
00:56:20,920 --> 00:56:23,800
and it really should have been probably an easier cover

1110
00:56:24,800 --> 00:56:26,559
than it was, although it still ended up being like

1111
00:56:26,599 --> 00:56:30,079
an easy cover in the end. But they kind of

1112
00:56:30,119 --> 00:56:33,000
torched the Stanford zone at one point in that game,

1113
00:56:33,480 --> 00:56:36,760
and Louisville very well could do the same thing. I'm

1114
00:56:37,519 --> 00:56:40,119
almost all the way in on Pat. I love Pat Kelsey.

1115
00:56:40,360 --> 00:56:42,559
He's a top ten coach in college basketball for me.

1116
00:56:43,000 --> 00:56:45,559
So yeah, even though this number is big, like you know,

1117
00:56:45,639 --> 00:56:48,480
Andy he points out, could be a trap line. I've

1118
00:56:48,519 --> 00:56:50,840
also said this a couple of times. I'm not super

1119
00:56:50,920 --> 00:56:53,840
high on this Stanford team, this roster. I think they've

1120
00:56:53,920 --> 00:56:56,519
kind of been overvalued most of the season. I've actually

1121
00:56:56,559 --> 00:57:00,440
had some success playing against them to this point, kicking

1122
00:57:00,440 --> 00:57:03,280
myself for not playing Notre Dame, but I just couldn't

1123
00:57:03,320 --> 00:57:06,800
justify doing it without Burton. But again, like it's you know,

1124
00:57:07,039 --> 00:57:09,519
just Stanford's just not a team I'm dying to back

1125
00:57:09,599 --> 00:57:10,000
right now.

1126
00:57:10,079 --> 00:57:11,679
Speaker 2: And so I lean Louisville here as well.

1127
00:57:13,199 --> 00:57:18,639
Speaker 3: And you talk about getting beaten from outside the arc Adam,

1128
00:57:18,679 --> 00:57:20,239
I think one of the things is to note here

1129
00:57:20,320 --> 00:57:23,599
is that Louisville marches in with guys six' four or,

1130
00:57:23,679 --> 00:57:26,719
better and your perimeter defenders are six two and six.'

1131
00:57:26,800 --> 00:57:29,239
one everybody can be shot over top of Here. For

1132
00:57:29,360 --> 00:57:31,760
stanford IT'S why i said in the beginning in, MY

1133
00:57:31,880 --> 00:57:34,840
notes i Just think stanford's a little too small defensively

1134
00:57:34,920 --> 00:57:36,960
to contend With what louisville. Brings to and then you

1135
00:57:37,039 --> 00:57:39,360
got to deal with their pace and their. Shooting ability to,

1136
00:57:39,440 --> 00:57:43,400
your point they shot thirty seven Threes against cal fourteen of,

1137
00:57:43,519 --> 00:57:45,719
thirty seven but that's still forty two points right there

1138
00:57:45,760 --> 00:57:46,159
from Beyond.

1139
00:57:46,159 --> 00:57:52,800
Speaker 1: The york, all right we've we've. Made it we survived

1140
00:57:52,840 --> 00:57:57,039
an hour the road game here if you will got the.

1141
00:57:57,079 --> 00:58:02,599
Info out, YOU know i found this whole slate to be.

1142
00:58:02,679 --> 00:58:06,079
QUITE challenging a lot of these, numbers were, you know

1143
00:58:06,280 --> 00:58:08,960
being primarily. A side we're really only a. SIDE better

1144
00:58:09,360 --> 00:58:11,360
a lot of them are falling like very close to

1145
00:58:11,400 --> 00:58:15,119
the number. For me one, that didn't which will likely

1146
00:58:15,119 --> 00:58:17,039
make the. Client card it's it's it's in the running

1147
00:58:17,079 --> 00:58:19,639
with only a couple of other ones that are in

1148
00:58:19,639 --> 00:58:22,079
the running for me today is THE leg i used for,

1149
00:58:22,079 --> 00:58:24,320
the parley which Was usc we're gonna call it twenty

1150
00:58:24,400 --> 00:58:27,159
two and. A half biggest numerical edge on the on

1151
00:58:27,199 --> 00:58:29,960
the board for. Me Today and i've had, good luck

1152
00:58:30,000 --> 00:58:32,199
believe it, or not like with these these twenty like

1153
00:58:32,360 --> 00:58:36,719
big like twenty to thirty, Point dogs i've hit pretty

1154
00:58:36,760 --> 00:58:39,760
consistently so far. This Year had dartmouth plus thirty six

1155
00:58:39,840 --> 00:58:41,559
and a half. Last week that was an. Easy winner,

1156
00:58:41,639 --> 00:58:44,400
SO yeah i like YOU at usc plus twenty two and. A.

1157
00:58:44,440 --> 00:58:47,719
Half cal are we calling that first half minus two

1158
00:58:47,760 --> 00:58:48,239
and a Half?

1159
00:58:48,599 --> 00:58:49,039
Speaker 2: For cal?

1160
00:58:49,119 --> 00:58:51,559
Speaker 3: We, DO yeah i think we have to at, this point.

1161
00:58:53,440 --> 00:58:55,639
Speaker 1: No problem so there's your two teamer. For today we,

1162
00:58:55,920 --> 00:58:59,599
split yesterday so plus four point one six, units season

1163
00:59:00,039 --> 00:59:00,760
and that's what we'll go.

1164
00:59:00,800 --> 00:59:02,239
Speaker 2: With today pretty standard plus two.

1165
00:59:02,360 --> 00:59:05,880
Speaker 1: Sixty odds it's GONNA be usc full game plus twenty

1166
00:59:05,880 --> 00:59:09,119
two and a half and then WE'LL go i guess

1167
00:59:09,199 --> 00:59:13,519
up the coast Up to Berkeley for cal minus two and.

1168
00:59:13,559 --> 00:59:15,639
A half that's a first, half Play so cal first

1169
00:59:15,679 --> 00:59:19,320
half minus two and, A half usc plus twenty two and.

1170
00:59:19,360 --> 00:59:23,280
A half, all, right guys have a. Good weekend if You're,

1171
00:59:23,360 --> 00:59:27,719
in murphysboro hit. Me up my dms, are open but

1172
00:59:27,719 --> 00:59:30,039
That's where i'll, be tonight, and yeah we'll see You guys.

1173
00:59:30,079 --> 00:59:31,119
Speaker 2: Monday morning, take care