Speaker 1: All right, everybody welcome in full court press makeshift setup
for me here, so hopefully you can hear me. Okay,
I know I get the background blurred just in case
someone walks in. That doesn't really feel like being on
on camera. But Rob, we missed you yesterday. But I
am not missing twenty twenty five at all because I
went three and oh yesterday in college. Who It's like
the first kind of one of those days I've had
in a while. So maybe I left all the bad
luck back in last year and we're ready to cook
in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 2: How was your New Year? Would you do anything fun
on New Year's Eve?
Speaker 3: New Year's Eve lasted well into the night. For me,
it was, you know, happened to be inside my home,
so you know, I think about I don't know, ten
to twenty. The last of the people left Am, and
at that point, when you know Oregon and Texas Tech
are kicking off at twelve, it's try to him and
as much rest as you can and get back at it.
But yeah, it was good. Yesterday. Focus was on college football, Adam.
I did not have a CBB play yesterday. College football
went two and one, six and one over the course
of left a couple of days here. So college football
has been really good, but look forward to getting into
now what should be almost predominantly college hoop season. We're
not quite there yet, but it's getting close.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll point out something.
Speaker 1: We had an issue yesterday with some of the comments
coming through. Titan CT says, good morning, and I see
that one. So with this, I don't know why this
was happening. It seemed to to sort of correct itself
as the show went on. But if you are are
trying to get a comment in, I think YouTube is
the place to do that. Slick Dick says the parlay
of the Montana's cash last night, Yeah, I had Montana
as a best bet and Montana's State came through as well.
So yeah, good day and we got a lot to
get into today.
Speaker 3: Rob.
Speaker 1: The clear feature on today's slate is is out in Lincoln,
Nebraska at the at the Bank right the PBA Pinnacle
Bank Arena, where you know, I kind of come on
this show. Brian Power and I got out to East
Lansing earlier this year to see Michigan State play, and
I've talked about how impressed I've been with them since
that game kind of you know, going into that game
thinking that they, you know, maybe came out like better
than I expected them to be, and they really have
not disappointed all year. But what what what can you
say about Nebraska at this point? They've been incredible. They
get as big of a bump for home court as
any place that I've never been.
Speaker 2: I've never I've never been to Lincoln.
Speaker 1: But like all you, if you have two eyes and
volume on your TV, you know that that's an insane atmosphere.
I imagine it will be tonight. Michigan State Nebraska. What
do you think, Rob? How are you looking at this?
Speaker 3: It's an interesting game. I mean, obviously both teams tearing
off wins, both have ripped off a couple of big
ten wins already, one home on a way. There's not
much to decipher from what they've done as far as
conference play goes, because they're kind of mirror image, I
guess the biggest The first thing that's glaring right is
that both of these teams have been almost exclusively at
home or neutral, one true road for each side here,
and it was a big ten game and each came
through in very close, tight fashion. So again we're scheduling
is concerned, where the strength of opponent is concerned, it's
kind of I mean, I guess you would lean towards
Michigan State as having played a better schedule because they
play a few better teams in the MTS. But these
teams right now record based performance based kind of mirror
images Nebraska, as you mentioned, Adam, and it's not something
that just began yesterday. With this home floor advantage, even
when Nebraska wasn't as good as they are this year,
the home floor out there in Lincoln has been incredibly helpful.
I would say this when I dug through it. There's
a couple of key matchups in this game. For sure,
Nebraska doesn't turn the ball over Michigan State, for what
it's worth, they don't force turnovers, so Nebraska's possessions for
the most part, should be possessions where they at least
get an attempt at the rim. Then lies the trouble
for Nebraska, because Michigan State just absolutely destroys the boards
on both ends. Defensive boards they're especially good, and Nebraska
doesn't offensive rebound all that well for a team with
some heights. So one and done maybe for Nebraska However,
when I say that, if you just dig into the
matchups here, Rink Mast the big four at Nebraska has
the ability to drag a big out beyond a three
point circle. He's a really good three point shooter. And
when you have those stretch forwards, stretch fives, whatever you
like to call them, you can create a little bit
better rebounding situation for your team. So Nebraska, while they'll
be in trouble on the glass in this game, I
believe they might not be in as big a trouble.
It is interesting to say and be able to say
factually that in Michigan State's the better three point shooting team,
and Tom Izzo's team has gone all the way to
sixty first nationally in three point percentage. That's really good
for this team off of where they were last year.
You put it all together here, they're a little bit different,
They're a lot similar. Home floor makes a difference. I
kind of think the line movement was correct. I thought
that early, and then as I thought through it, you
start to change your mind a little bit. You think, man,
Michigan State's just gonna defend like crazy, and they're gonna
get on the glass and et cetera, et cetera. But
I kind of trust Nebraska's offense here to get enough done.
So slight lean Nebraska here, adam the game. As far
as point total is concerned, I wouldn't think that it
would reach extreme heights. I think the opener tells us
that one forty four and a half down now to
one forty three. I think people are expecting kind of
the game that I'm describing here, but I think that
Nebraska maybe could win this game by more than a bucket.
It's going to be such a good game, and I
wouldn't be surprised one way or the other. Foul trouble
could dictate this one. I'll say that too. Foul trouble
could be a big thing in this game. Let's see
where the whistles go. No play but a lean on
the Nebraska side.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no play for me either, But I'm actually gonna
lean toward the over. You know, I kind of disagree
with that move for a couple of reasons, one being if, well,
I guess if Nebraska is gonna win, you want to
talk about you know, it's it's been a great atmosphere
for a while. They had New Hampshire and earlier in
the week, and I don't think there was an empty
seat in the house. I think it was pretty much
sold out for New Hampshire, who is a bad team
on the America East. So if you're you kind of
know you've arrived as a program if you're selling out
that arena against an America East school. So that was
pretty impressive for Nebraska to win this game. Like I
see them, I see the Nebraska money. I'm not sure,
I really I don't disagree with it, but it's like
it's not something I would I necessarily follow Michigan. Michigan
State is one of these teams that, like you know,
they're kind of they're not gonna A big game is
not going to put them off, Rightzo's going to have
them prepared. I think you made a lot of good
points as to like their path to victory in this game. Uh,
but you talked about masked him being there as opposed
to not playing in this game last year obviously two
years ago in this building. I believe they upset Michigan State.
It might have been a mild upset. I don't think
Michigan State was quite as good as they were this year.
When that you know at the time of that game
being played, they win the game with mass last year
or two years ago, lose the game without him last year.
I think he obviously really completes their offense. And you
know when Nebraska, feeding off the energy of the crowd,
they hit some threes and suddenly that game is a
little bit more up and down. Then maybe, you know,
one might think the other thing second chance points for
Michigan State and the fact that they've you know, you
talked about last year them not hitting the three.
Speaker 2: How about the Arkansas game.
Speaker 1: I think they were one for fourteen from three and
they still won that game. I believe the next time
out they played San Jose State didn't shoot the ball
particularly well. So they've kind of come a long way,
and I think it's because they're they're generating better looks
and knocking down You know, these guys can all if
you're if you're getting good looks, they're they're gonna make
those right, And I think that's what Michigan State has
done so well this year at the shot selection, kind
of helping that percentage. So again, not something I'm gonna play,
but I'll call this one over.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think real quick we'll just wrap it up
here with a couple of you know, ats record stuff here, Adam,
I think if you're if you're pro Nebraska in this game,
you want to point to Michigan State going on the
road their only road trip this year, only beating Penn
State by four as a twelve and a half point favorite.
You want to point to the fact that Michigan State's
one and four ats in their last five, and then
of course, you know the comeback to that could be
Nebraska zero and two their last two. However, those two
were as favorites in the high high twenties off of
two Big ten victories, so you can almost push that aside,
thinking that maybe they're somewhat disinterested. It's a crazy game
to try and project here, but I don't know in
my mind that arena. And let's just mention Price Standford
for one second here, former Iowa guard who now plays
for Nebraska. I'm pretty sure again I'll go pro Michigan
State here. I'm pretty sure Tom Izzo, after seeing this
kid for so many years, has a pretty good game
plan design because they're not the Nebraska team isn't full
of three point weapons, and if you take one of
them away. That's a pas. The victory for Michigan State
as well. So great coach, Freddie Hoiberg. I don't want
to leave him short. Great coach as well. We'll see
how it goes, Adam. It's gonna be a good game
for Big ten.
Speaker 1: Action, all right, Jose, I see you looking for the
early game. We have an early tip today, and you're
not the only one. I see quite a few folks
looking for some insight into some conference USA Action Ron.
This is going to be New Mexico State Florida International
down at the the Ocean Bank. I went here last year.
There was no one there, literally no one there. There
probably won't be anyone there this afternoon. Forget the name
of it. It's like the Ocean Bank something something center,
pretty cool building. They have a painting of the ocean
on the floor, which is always, you know, kind of
probably probably the biggest thing I remember the most about
that place. But you know, early tip off here to
me like Florida International, So this is this is like
an interesting scenario because they lost all of their best
players from last year. But the team last year was
not very good, right, so like do you know what
I mean? It's like, yeah, they lost guys like Deshaun
Getdins who's now at Sacred Heart. A couple of others
moved on from that team as well. But last year's
team was bad, so coming. You know, if this game
occurred rob maybe four or five weeks ago, I'd be
all over New Mexico State here. But you know, early tip,
it's some travel for New Mexico State. It's going to
be a dead atmosphere. But there's really not many Florida
International games that aren't at you know. I mean, it's
no different than any other home game for them. Man,
I want to like New Mexico State in this spot
because I just think they're like categor or better. I
think they're just a better team. But the early tip
slash traveled to South Florida Miami area has me a
little bit concerned. Anything for you here, Florida International, New
Mexico State.
Speaker 3: Yeah, as you say that again rings the bell of
when I was on with Jim Root a couple of
weeks ago, and he talked about this very setup. Right,
the travel team in the early game, usually at least
for his betting opportunities did not pan out. Whenever I
see Florida International on the board. The first thing I
do is look toward the over. It's always going to
be high as is today. In fact, for an FIU game,
this might not even be considered high. One fifty three
and a half. I think New Mexico State's tempo kind
of settles the number lower than where it normally would be.
That said, for me, Florida International under Ballard Jeremy Ballard
has always been a one trick pony. They're going to
outscore you in high eighties or nineties, or they're not
going to shoot well and you're going to destroy them.
Take your choice. It's not necessarily the same every game,
and so it's very hard to project. What you try
to project is what will the opponent do with the
opponent just get up and go with them, which in
most cases is what happens, Adam, I mean, nobody really
fears when they play FIU. Defensively, kids get caught up
in the pace winds up being fairly high scoring. New
Mexico Jason Houghton has the same blueprint ever since Sam
Houston State. He likes to be methodical. It's been a
New Mexico State thing for a while. But I think
they might get caught up in this pace, especially early,
and they'll be able to score. They just come off
a game against Sam Houston, which is similarly fast, not
as fast as FYU tempo wise or shot you know,
the time of possession on offense is concerned, but fast,
and the game went eighty seven to seventy eight one
and sixty five points, which is twelve above this number.
If you play the FIU over, you have to get
FIU to have at least a mediocre shooting day. The
opportunities are gonna be. There's gonna be such a batch
of opportunities that as long as you can get them
to shoot halfway decent, it'll get over. I think that's
what happens here. One fifty three and a half for
a game involving Florida International just to me seems a
little bit low despite what New Mexico State likes to
do best, which is more mediocre, slow tempo. I think
they'll score it will against this defense, So for me,
this game should be able to get to one fifty four.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Jeremy Balladers do we think him and Mike McDaniel
hang out like they probably do right Like sometimes he'll
roll up to a game with like capri pants and
loafers on. It's it's very McDaniel esque. Just got he's
just a fashionable guy. But you know, as far as
the team is concerned, you know, you talk about FIU's offense.
It's part of the reason I don't really want to
fade them here, right, Like, you know, I know they
lost to Miami, but that was they were more competitive
than I expected them to be. Their ninety eight eighty
one the final. You know that that Long Island team
like to knock off Long Island, drop eighty six points
and win that game. Is is like they're no slouch
like Long Island. We might talk about Long Island today
in a pretty big game for them in the NC,
but like, that's a good basketball team and they handled them.
And then last time out, even in a loss, maybe
one of their most impressive performances of the season, taking
Liberty to the Wired ninety seven to ninety four in
a game that went to overtime.
Speaker 2: So yeah, they're scoring the basketball again.
Speaker 1: It's part of the reason that even though my number
slightly leads New Mexico, I don't really I don't really
want to like go into battle here with the road
team in this early tip, and I can't put I
can't talk you off the over all, Right, I think
it's a time we Rob, we should throw out a
quick promo. The package is live for the two of us,
so we have right now if you want. If you
like this show, you like the info you're getting, you're
gonna get that same information on a lot of other
games that we don't talk about on this show. And
right now you can get three days at a highly
discounted rate, and I think we have that. I believe
that's going to be like standing the rest of the season.
So you know, if you do it on a Friday,
you get the whole weekend and that's a lot of
pick and they don't cost very much per pick. So
if you're liking the show, check that out, Rob, you
know what the I think it's three day all access.
Speaker 2: For both of our college basketball correct.
Speaker 3: That is correct. I thought I saw forty nine dollars
at him. I'm not positive that's the price point. I'm
trying to look it up right now, make sure that,
but as we speak, I'll find it.
Speaker 1: I think it's and yeah, end listen, guys, Yeah, any
three days. So we did away with the weekend special
because we were like, well, why not offer it all
the time, because you know we're grinding this out every day.
We've got plays every day, but you know the weekend
is you know you're gonna find your volume on a
slate like tomorrow's. There is a ton of games, and
once you get into conference play for whatever reason, Rob
they'll put seven games on Friday and then one hundred
and fifty on Saturday. Makes no sense. Can't tell me
that that's you know that there's a reason that they
have to do that, but they do. Clem, thank you
so much, he says, love the show. We really appreciate
you guys.
Speaker 2: I will give.
Speaker 1: You jump in the chat if you want to guess
what game I'm going to tonight. I don't know if
I sat on the show, So I'll let you throw
it out there. We'll see if anyone gets it right
and then maybe we'll talk about it. But yeah, we
we appreciate the support, comments, likes, subscribes. If you buy
the play is great. If not, we just like having
you guys here. So yeah, Trevor, how about how about this?
You know what mac Any see Fridays. I'll tell you
what game it's not. I am not going to see
on I own it tonight. Although if I was in
that part of the country right now, that would be
someplace I would be. That is a big one in
the mac rob This is a I would say.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go out. Yeah, I'm gonna say it.
Speaker 1: This is the outside of the Jalen Picket year, which
was more Jalen Pickett being awesome and as we know,
he's an NBA caliber player. This is Sienna's best team
since the Fran McCaffrey era, since twenty ten, which was
the last time.
Speaker 2: They were in the NCAA tournament.
Speaker 1: This is probably outside of the COVID year that got canceled.
That was a pretty good team too, the best chance
that they've had to sort of win this league and
get back to the NCAA tournament. IONA has kind of
become our rival, if you will, over the year. Not
so much because it's like, you know, the two teams
are close to each other. IONA has bigger geographic rivals,
but these two teams have been good for a long
period of time in this league, and so this this
game is a big deal to both teams. Rob, this
is down in New Rochelle tonight. Iona kind of comes
off of what I would consider a game that they
probably feel like they should have had, not necessarily should
have had, in the respect that, like I thought they
got out played in the second half on Monday against
Mount Saint Mary's. But I think that's a game that
they probably, you know, kind of look at the schedule
and feel like they should win potential look ahead. I
gotta be honest, like Sienna, I think they did kind
of inflate their their standing a little bit beating up
on bad teams a little bit concerned that they got
like punch into malt Fi Vermont, and then Vermont turned
around and lost to Princeton team that I don't think
is very good. So for me, I'll be a fan
in this one. You know who I'm gonna be rooting for.
But Rob, don't take it easy on me. If you
like Iona, you gotta let me know.
Speaker 3: Well, I think there's advantages for the Iona side, And
I'll just start with the schedule maker. The last time
we Sawanna Adam, they were getting that and I remember
texting you at the very end of the game when
we got to stick back to cover against Indiana. You're
talking about ten days off for one side and another
side it's been more active on the court only three
days off for Iona. Both teams come off a loss,
so it's important to each year. I do think that
the length of layoff probably favors Iona. I'd rather have
the team that's been on the court more recently than
the one that hasn't been there since either of the holidays. Right,
holidays have taken place two weeks in a row now
for Sienna. And then the other thing, of course, becomes
the contrast in styles. Iona wants to get up and down.
Jerry McNamara doesn't really want to get up and down.
They'd rather take possessions extremely slow and try to make
the most maximized possessions scoring wise, and then run back
and play d against the other side. I kind of
favor I always say this, and it's just one of
those things that I stick by when I handicap that
the home team, if there's a contrast in styles, if
there's a difference in tempos, the home team has the
advantage controlling it from more than fifty percent of the game.
I'm not saying they control it all forty, but I
will say that more than twenty minutes are going to
go to Iona's style in this game, and in that case,
you need Sienna to be able to not be susceptible
to a quick eight nothing run something like that in
a game where I mean it's totally in the mid
forties at and it's been bet up a couple of points,
but the game probably lands there, which means you're talking
about a game high sixties loser, low seventies winner. You
can't give away possessions. So for for Siena, it's really
really important that in those stretches where the game goes quick,
it doesn't affect them adversely, like I say, they don't
get victimized by an eight to zero tend to run
something like that where margins created and stuff to come back,
they can avoid that. I don't know. I don't see
a lot of matchup you know, physical matchup advantages for
the iwer side. The only thing real true advantage I
see in this matchup is the pace they're both off
of losses. So I can't say once hungrier than the other.
It's a conference matchup. And I also, like I said,
I think this is the length of time off might
hurt Sienna here. If you're looking at one team that
could come out of the gate a little bit slow,
a little bit offshoot wise, and they are on the road,
I think that team would be Siena. You know, there's
a couple of things they have to avoid, but I
think Iona has advantages here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And if there's one place that you don't want
to come out slow, it's on the road. At Iona,
they always get a good crowd. They play well in
that building, they shoot it well in that building. Just
ask Hofstra how that worked out for them earlier this
year when they came out slow and I think they
were down twenty two to three or something like that,
like twenty twenty two to four in the first like
seven eight minutes of that game at Hines. I will
say this, like Sienna typically this is not their best
road trip, like they historically, they don't play well in
this building. But Rob I also think that has something
to do with the fact that Iona has been the
far superior team the last decade or so. You know,
you have to go back, you go back into like
when I was at school and the mid two thousands,
Sienna was better. But like the stretch of Iona basketball
that was like early two thousands getting an at large
bid to the tournament, followed by Rick Patino, followed by
now like they up until this year have been the
better team, So that might be you know, if you're
looking at historical records, that probably.
Speaker 2: Has something to do with it.
Speaker 1: You mentioned Sianna potentially coming out flat and the long layoff.
I think this is the most important part of this handicap.
Sienna has had guys out, but I do think the
Indiana game was more of just like, hey, we've got
a long break. There's no reason to play guys again
in a twenty three point spread game on the road,
Like it just doesn't make sense to do that. They
scratched Tasmin Goodrick late in that game, and they also
held out Riley Mouldy, who was out with a concussion.
I gotta think Cianna will have those guys back here
after the long layoff. And the nice thing I've complimented
Sianna basketball on this route they published their injury report
and post it to Twitter like religiously. They literally It's like,
I really wish all of college basketball would would copy
what they do. If you follow Sianna at MBB Twitter account.
They put out an injury report and they say, like
matter of factly, these people are out and these people
are back, and it'll probably happen ninety minutes to two
hours before the game. So you will know. That's the
nice thing about Sianna. You you will have a ninety
minute to two hour heads up on whether Goodrick is back,
Mulvy is back, someone else was sick for the last game.
But like I said, I think I think they're rolling
in full strength. Doesn't mean that I own is going
to be an easy matchup for them. So yeah, that's uh,
but be one of the better games to watch tonight,
especially if you're in to mid major basketball. I see
by you Byou's back by who says boots on the
ground this weekend for him in Hammond. That's Southeast Louisiana.
That's a that'll be a good one by you. I
think they're playing Steven f Austin tesse Bett says, Dayton
isn't playing.
Speaker 2: Listen, this is for my guy, Sean Ley.
Speaker 1: If you watch the show earlier in the I told
him I bust the date and gear out for him
at some point, and so I did it today. Yes,
they don't have a game, but I did it today.
There's our guy, Garth. You know what, Garth, I actually
really want to talk about this game. So Garth is here.
I appreciate the donation as always, and I want to
go to This is a really interesting sort of you know,
set up here with the respect that like Michigan rob
at this point is a twenty three point home favorite
to like a pretty good USC basketball team. I have
thoughts on that, but I'm going to let you kick
this one off. Garth wants to know team total over
ninety six and a half. Does the Wolverines just keep
running people off the court.
Speaker 3: It's hard to bid against it, all right? I mean this.
You've talked about this a couple of times this year
with different teams other than Michigan. But as somebody who
also has kept power ratings for thirty some odd years,
Michigan's one of those teams were you know, you're probably
the same, Adam, But I don't want to put words
in your mouth. There's a ceiling after every game, no
matter what I've seen that I will either raise or
lower team. In other words, I'm not going to drop
somebody six points because I just saw a bad performance.
There's always a ceiling and a floor to how much
you can raise, how much you can take away. Michigan's
one of those teams where you can't raise them high enough.
At this point in time, the margin of victories are
so huge, the points being scored are so huge that
you can't if you're following a regimented system of how
you do your power ratings, it's impossible to keep pace
with what they're doing right now. But the odds maker
has to do something. He doesn't have to be me.
He's not the guy coming up to win. The odds
maker has to do something to distract attention or deflect
attention to the other side of the game, and so
you wind up with points spreads like this guard. That's
a great question. Interesting wise, because before we came on
the show and I took a second look at this
game and I said to myself, Man, I want to
bet USC's team total. I want to bet USC to
go over what's a very small seventy four and a
half with the offense that they bring to the table.
I mean, Michigan could go off for one hundred again.
But if they do and they cover scoring one hundred,
then USC's gonna be at seventy six, or yeah, seventy
six for a Michigan cover, seventy seven for a USC cover,
it's seventy four and a half. Just seems like it's. Man.
I don't want to say disrespectful to USC, but I
just don't know that you can the way Michigan's playing
right now, once you get separation, the way that they
do defense can at times just be a second thought
in the back of your head. We're rolling, we're scoring,
They're never going to catch us. Who cares if they
get a bucket? Who cares if they make a three?
Et cetera, et cetera. Now that being said, you take
a look at the last I'm trying to go back here,
last ten games that they've played Maryland. It's the only
team that's gotten to this number against them, despite the
fact that they've run people out of the building. So
I know there's a risk in it. But my initial
reaction here is I do want to play USC's team
total over seventy four and a half simply because they're
that good offensively, and this game you may get a
full game total over and last thing I'm not going
to talk you off betting Michigan team total over because
to me with my eyes right now, and I think
I said this back before, you know, after Thanksgiving, they
look like the best team in college basketball. They still do.
But my thoughts are towards USC team total over seventy
four and a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is this is an insane number. I think.
Speaker 1: I think I have to bat USC like this. I'm
seeing twenty three at Caesars. I see some other I
see mostly twenty two and a half, but like there's
a handful of twenty threes out there. So my biggest
numeracle edge of the day I got, I make this
sixteen and a half. Like, I know that I might
be that might be on the lighter side, you know,
I may be like a little too far off market there,
But I don't think I'm wrong to think that there's
like number value on USC at this price.
Speaker 2: Rob.
Speaker 1: I mean, this is not a bad basketball team. They
have athletes, they force turnovers, you know, they're they're gonna
apply defensive pressure. It's like and just to go back
to Garth, Like, I'm not saying his team total doesn't
get there. I'm not saying your team total doesn't get there. Actually,
if both team totals get there, it's gonna be hard
to believe that they would have won by more than
twenty three points, right Like, if usc is is beating
their team total, even if Michigan's is going over, hard
to believe that that would be a twenty three point
or more margin. I just think that, like you know,
at some point, like there is a ceiling, at some point,
you can't just the numbers can't just go up and
up and up forever. I see slick picking. The chat
says you at USC's defense is trash. Yeah, like like
their half court defenses is not great. But like you know,
the key against Michigan is, here's the thing. Michigan is
going to dissect good defense. What you got to do
is force turnovers. You got to pressure them. You got
to force turnovers. That that is how you that that's
ultimately how you're gonna stop Michigan is by taking the
ball from them. And that I think you got usc
can do a little bit because they have the athletes
to do it and they will apply that kind of pressure.
So I'm going to actually make this my leg of
my parlay. I won't lock it until the end of
the show from a number standpoint, because you know how
we can't parlay until you know the other leg. But
like twenty two and a half or twenty three whatever,
we're able to get here, good chance. I bet it
for clients as well. I kind of wanted to see
if it would tick up to twenty three across the board.
But yeah, this is like, even if this game ROB
is not competitive, I still think like there's a chance
USC covers. Like, even if they play poorly and it's
a blowout, it could be a twenty one point blowout, right,
Like to ask Michigan to win this game by thirty
I think is a lot.
Speaker 2: So I like USC.
Speaker 1: I think they do enough to hang around all right.
So I'm I'm looking in the chat so I don't
know if someone guessed it, but I'll get it.
Speaker 2: I'll give it away.
Speaker 1: This will This is a game I'll be at tonight
Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee State, Murphy'sboro, Tennessee. It's where I'm
headed this evening, big game in the Conference USA, the Glasshouse.
It will be my first time ROB at the Glasshouse
in Murphy's Borough. First time I think seeing either of
these teams play in person, I'll have to I have
to like try to think about that. I don't know,
I don't know that I've ever seen Louisiana Tech or
Middle Tennessee State play in person. My initial sort of
gut reaction was that numbers kind of big. But then
I kind of went through and did the math on this,
and it my number comes out right right where this
opened in like that five five and a half range.
What you could see here are some points. Both these
teams like to chuck it up from deep. So is
this is this like a high variance type game to you, Robin?
And how are you seeing this one on the total?
Speaker 3: I just think Louisiana text tempo is way too slow
to go for a bunch of points in this game.
They'd have to make the visitor here would have to
make a high percentage of shots fifty four percent. They
just don't take a lot of shots. Possessions are long
drawn out with them. They's somewhat drawn out with Middle
Tennessee as well for some reason. And I don't know why,
because there's no real proof statistically or analytically, Adam for
me to make this statement that I just think Middle
Tennessee is the better team, and this is coming just
from oyes. Like I watched La Tech struggle offensively so
much and be so turtle paced that maybe I'm just
turned off by that particular style of play. But when
I watch them TSU, I do see flashes at times
of offensive creativity, ability to put the ball in the buckets.
So when I first looked at it, I thought, well,
let me look at MTSU. Maybe I want to play them,
But you hit the brakes real quick when you're forced
to lay six and a half with a team that's
not especially good in any real area. I guess the
best area off the chart here for MTSU is their
three point defense. I don't know that that comes into
play as a huge thing here against the Louisiana Tech
team that can't make a three to save their lives.
They have the eighth worst three point percentage in the
college basketball right now, So I guess MTSU would beg
them to shoot them. Go ahead and shoot them in
our building. We'll take our chances. Very very small, slight
opinion with the home team here. I just don't like
the fact of laying six and a half to be
honest with you, maybe I think in my mind the
way to do this is probably try first half with
the home team. It's a Friday night in front of
a home crowd, it's a conference game, and generally I
give a little bump to home teams on Friday nights
because that tends to be the more ambitious crowd, the
louder venue, the more the better atmosphere for them. So
maybe first half because it shortens the number to the
home team. You asked me to be the odds guy
this morning, so I'm gonna get you this first half
number right now, so I can just give it to
folks here. First half spread in this game lat Tech
happens to be lay three. You can lay it. There's
only a one three out there. One straight three and
a half is the universal number here with MTSU. I
guess that's the way I would look. But I'm not
a big proponent of anything in this game. To tell
you the.
Speaker 1: Truth, Yeah, I'm gonna have to I'm gonna have to
figure out what game I wrote the notes for in
my spot for law Tech Middle Tennessee, because I very
much misspoke. These two teams do not fire shots up
like that, and I am now I got to figure
out what I got that confused with. It just goes
to show I mean, listen, when you're trying to track
this many teams, it's like this is part of the
reason I get out, get to different parts of the country,
different arenas. I don't know much about these two teams,
and that's so I'm not you know, I'm I'm there
more to well because it's it was with all the
delays I had traveling. I'm trying to go visit some
family in Texas. I've been trying to get there for
a week and we had the like worst weather that
we've had in like a long time, so I couldn't
get out. This one just kind of fell into my
lap in terms of like where I am and what
I can make it to tonight. And yeah, I mean,
like I said, my number on the side and I'm
more of a side better anyway, came right out on
this number. My If I were to trust my power
rankings for these two teams, which I really don't, I
don't think I've bet either of these team teams all year,
I would say like there's a slight lean toward the
dog at five and a half and I think that's
what you were kind of alluding to as well. But
again it will be I will be interested to get
to see these teams up close and see if I
can you know, take something going forward.
Speaker 2: But yeah, that is a when.
Speaker 1: You look at this off, it's I'm wondering why people
in the chat weren't like what is he talking about?
Because these two teams are like both pretty on paper,
poor offensively. So again it's, uh, you know, the the
takeaway here for me, I'll be there. If anyone's in
Murphy's Borrow and wants to go to the game, I
can probably get you to the game too, So hit
me up. I don't know, I don't know, uh that
we have many you know people in the chat that
are like, you know, Murphy's Burrow, you know, residents route,
but maybe we do.
Speaker 2: You never know.
Speaker 1: Part part of what I love is is meeting you
guys out on the road. So so let me know,
and yeah we will, uh we will move on. Let's
see a couple of people. Here's here's Steve, but like
five people asked about this. One wants to talk Seattle
Gonzaga and so this is a this is an other
massive number. You know, I've been singing the praises. Sorry,
my screen's going nuts here. I've been singing the praises
of Seattle right like they come out they knock off
Washington I was on them in that game. I used
them for the parlay earlier in the week. They came
out and ended up covering the second, had a pretty
big second half covered against Washington State. Now they're twenty
three and a half, twenty three point dog to Gonzaga,
and it's pretty warranted. I don't know if I'd lay
it with Gonzaga, but I'm certainly not taking Seattle here.
This this could be one that gets ugly.
Speaker 2: What do you think of.
Speaker 3: I think they've played nobody in this weight class all
season long, So we can say whatever we want to
say about Seattle, whether it be positive or negative. I
just this is a major, major step up in class.
And when you walk in, you know, with a twelve
and three record into Kenzaga, I'm pretty sure Mark Fugh
is gonna take them fairly seriously. I know Gonzaga has
a lot of these games that are cake walks, even
inside the conference where maybe the other side doesn't attract
their interest and this this Seattle team in state, gonna
walk in fairly confident, got some nice numbers, but again
it's posted against nobody inside of the top one hundred
as far as analytical ratings are concerned. In fact, you
find very few inside the top one ten. So now
you're gonna march out there and play Gonzaga's side. You're
gonna play Gonzaga's defense, You're gonna play Gonzaga's athleticism, and
I just don't know that Seattle matches up. Again. I
talked about this in the Sienna Iona game. We talk
about it a lot. The one thing you always have
to consider on these home floors that are fairly good
for the home team is you can't be susceptible to
these huge quick runs which Gonzaga is famous for. Gonzaga
is famous for going on a fifteen oh run, you know,
with eight minutes left in the first half or something,
and then you just never get back in the game.
If you're Seattle. I think there's a lot of fight
in the Seattle team. I think there's a lot of
good about Seattle going forward inside conference. I just don't
know that even with this amount of points, I would
trust them against Gonzaga. That being said, Gonzaga has to
be motivated, and I guess my mind is telling me
they'll be focused for this game again. Another Friday night
in the kennel. That's as tough a place to play
as any. Not sure Seattle walks in and gets anything
done here. So if they get behind early, Adam, it's
tough to chase Gonzaga. It's really tough to chase because
you lose the boards. In most instances, they get out
on the break and extend leads and margins. I don't know,
I just wouldn't watch Seattle in this instance.
Speaker 2: Yeah, someone was like, what's the chatter in the background.
Speaker 1: I'm in a lobby right now, But like, you know what,
like I would say, almost every other employee at this
company probably would have just canceled the show. That's not Trigg,
He says, you know what, let's let's fire up the
inner that connection.
Speaker 2: We don't get a ship, so let them talk.
Speaker 1: It's not gonna, not gonna, not gonna deter us from
talking Seattle Gonzaga. My thing here with the Zags or
with Seattle, Like I complimented their bigs and how how
impressive their bigs were against Heinstein Steinback and the Washington bigs.
Gonzaga is tough to be like, you know those the
Gonzaga frontline is so good. It's much better than Washington's right, Like,
and if if Seattle's not able to get some of
those easy points at the rim and now they're starting
to get pushed out behind the arc. It's not that
they don't have a couple of shooters, but man, like,
I'm with you, I feel like there's a knockout punch
here somewhere for the Zags. So this might be a
game because that number is so big and even if
Gonzaga doesn't land the knockout blow it, you know, it
could be twenty four whatever, whatever you might say, this
might be the game where it's like, maybe you play
Gonzaga first half and if it doesn't hit come over
the top with the second half, maybe you go live
and wait and see if you can catch a little
bit of a lull and then jump in on Gonzaga live.
But Rob, I think the most competent thing I have
for this game is that at some point Zags are
going to go on like the run that you speak of,
and if you time it out right you can make
some money doing that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, in game gotta love the guy who invented in
game for us.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, listen, you you catch a little lull
where Seattle goes on a little runner, Gonzaga doesn't score
for a minute, suddenly that that number ticks down, and
then you get the you know, the ten points and
in a minute and a half from Gonzaga, which is
is very very possible. So yeah, no play there for me.
But that's that's another one to be the first time
we're seeing Seattle Gonzaga as a West Coast Conference game,
so so very very interesting game to watch right there.
Another interesting one, I guess for some people the John
dunboll if you will, Saint Peter's Marist. Of course, John
Dunn Saint Peter's coach for a long time, probably one
of the few people ever robbed the lateral move of
lateral moves right moving from Saint Peter's to Marist, although
actually Marist is a much nicer campus and definitely has
more money in the athletic department, so that's probably why
he did that. He's now been at Maris for a
while and he's now playing John Done basketball, which is
just as ugly as as humanly possible and try to
defend your way to a win. But he's done a
good job of that, you know, to this point. So
number was right on the money here for me. But
I like this Marit's team. I think Maris could factor
into the MAC this year. They're really good. I leaned
toward the Red Foxes. Do you have anything on the total?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I can't believe the movement in the total total's
gone from one twenty six, which to me I would
still consider under to one thirty two and a half,
a six and a half point upward move in a
Maret Saint Peter's game, somehow just doesn't correlate with the
way I think about this game being played out, Adam,
So I'm gonna have to investigate it a little bit further.
There's been a lot of Saint Peter's money games going
from four and a half down to two and a
half playing the home team. I do not have a
good grip on whether or not there's an injury situation
in this game that could have led to the pull
towards Saint Pete, or whether it's just folks who think
Saint Pete's gonna come out shooting red hot tonight to
force the game over and they're gonna win. I just
I can't agree with either of those theories here at
this point. I would think that at one thirty two
and a half, you have to I mean, just out
of principle, I think you have to push back at
that total and bet under one thirty two and a
half with the odds maker. What the numbers are telling
us right now, Adam, is this game's gonna end sixty
seven to sixty five mayrist or sixty eight sixty five May.
And I just don't know that either one of these
teams finds their way to the high sixties in this game.
So for me, again, I haven't played it, and I'm
gonna look into it a little deeper here to see
why the the rather substantial line moves have occurred. But
my goodness, one thirty two and a half in this game,
just again, just out of principle, I think i'd have
to push back.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I actually just saw that move to the UH
to the spread. I didn't realize it moved all the
way down to two and a half. Disagree strongly. I'm
even I'm considering playing Maris at two and a half.
I don't know that they have like one guy, two
guys or what like that that would really like the way,
you know, this isn't the Maris teams of a couple
of years ago. I can't remember his name, maybe Gardner,
Patrick Gardner, that the big guy that they pretty much
was a one man show and then everyone else just
played defense. Like it's much more of a team and
that's why they're better than they were a couple of
years back when it was like one guy providing all
the offense and then everyone else just plays defense. But man, like,
this is not the first time the market has faded
Merist and I just think that's wrong. I there's nothing
that Saint Peter's like brings to the tape this year
that justifies that move. I talked to my my buddy
Fairfield Frank, who's great, great account on Twitter, especially if
you're following Fairfield Sports, and you know, they they felt
like they really kind of give gave that game away
to Saint Peter's the other day. It was the game
that Fairfield kind of had until they didn't. Yeah, I
strongly disagree with that, pretty strongly into Marrist at two
and a half. All right, Rob, it is ten forty five.
Do you have an idea of where you want to
go for the parlay?
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's go. And you know what, I'm gonna make
people stay up late tonight. This is if our front
end hits stay up late. Notre Dame and cal acc matchup.
You want to talk about ugly basket Well, trying to
actually watch Stanford Notre Dame the other night, you'd rather
peel your eyelids out. It was horrendous forty seven to
forty final. It's almost as if the shot clock, you know,
the four corners under Dean Smith and Phil Ford had reappeared.
I can't see that happening again here, honestly. Now for
Notre Dame, I can understand. Obviously Shrewsbury plays slow and
you probably want to play even slower without Marcus Burton.
He's not going to be available again as Notre Dame's
leading scorer. But to do it to Stanford is one thing.
I don't think they're going to do it to Mark
Madson and cal. One reason why is because to me,
this is a huge I mean, I'm not going out
on the limb here, but it's a huge step down
in class. They just played Louisville. So when you come
off of playing a Louisville team get buried by twenty
on your home floor, now you're back on your home floor.
You get the complete opposite of Louisville in Notre Dame,
as far as skill level is concerned, as far as
pace is concerned, as far as almost everything is concerned,
and Notre Dame will turn the ball over at him.
For what it's worth, California is a really, really good
shooting basketball team. You know, you put California up profile
wise against Stanford, and while Stanford's got a couple of
nice players, including their point guard, Col's way more well
rounded offensively. They have much more ability to score the basketball.
I think, listen, if you're the Cal coach, if you're
Mark Madson, and you see what just went on in
that Notre Dame game together night, the first thing you're
telling your team is that ain't happening to us. This
game's not going to be forty seven to forty. For
that reason, I like a few things here. I'm gonna
pick one. I kind of like the Cal team total
to get over the number now depends where you shop,
because the number varies. I see anywhere from sixty nine
and a half to seventy one and a half. So
because they're so how much variance, I won't use that
here on the show. But what I will use is
CAL first half here. This number's gone up by the way.
Full game has gone up to where Cal is now
a five point favorite at a lot of venues. But
first half you can still find Cal very readily available
at only minus two. I think Madsin's going to have
the team ready. Notre Dame's offensive output is not good
at this point in time. I think Cal will try
and take charge of pace on their home floor here
and again off the loss to Louisville in this just
being a step down in class, That's kind of my
way to go here. I think Cal comes out early
and often here wins the first half by more than two.
So my leg of the part is going to be
Cal first half minus two points.
Speaker 1: I very much agree, and I'm going to give some
info as to why I agree, but real quick, I
just want to acknowledge Paul Powell. In the chat, he says,
big fan of you and Rob, thank you so much.
We appreciate that. We appreciate the donation. Michigan State Nebraska
was the feature game today, so we already did ten
minutes on Michigan State Nebraska at the beginning of the show.
You can always go to the Wager Talking YouTube channel
check out the replay. But Paul I will let you
pick another game, a different game, and I'll have my
eye on the chat. You don't need to attach another
donation to it. Just drop it in the chat and
we'll close the show or whatever you want to talk about.
But in the meantime, Rob, I agree with you. I
agree with the move. I was very anti Cal and
still kind of am. I still I'm still anti Cal,
like in general, but they have I've come around to
thinking they're like not the worst team in the ACC,
which is kind of where I had them rated coming
into the season. I still think twelve and two is
a little deceiving, you know, kind of a little bit
of an easier non conference schedule.
Speaker 2: But you know this, like Data Aims has been awesome.
Speaker 1: He was someone that I kind of you know, I
got to see Kansas State play a couple of times
the year that he was there, and it was I
guess like for me, like he's always been. He's been
a disappointment for me at this point because I remember
when he got to Kansas State, thought he was going
to be great, didn't pan out.
Speaker 2: Ghost of Virginia was worse.
Speaker 1: Right, So it's almost like, but I guess the third
time is the charm because he has been by like,
he's been their best player, seventeen point two points per game.
And you know there's a Syracuse I guess you'd.
Speaker 2: Call him a cast off.
Speaker 1: Another one of the guys that will will typical Syracuse basketball,
he'll go somewhere else and play better, and that is
Chris Bell.
Speaker 2: And he's been good.
Speaker 1: And I you know, when Cal assembled this roster, I said, man,
they went to they went to losing programs and got
kind of okay players, you know what I mean, Like, no,
none of the players they brought in we're at programs
with like a pedigree of winning. And that was like
a little bit of a concern to me. But you know,
to mad sense credit he is. He's I think he's
doing a pretty good job. And to this game right here,
you know, Notre Dame was able to what was the
forty seven to forty against Stanford just a Cal is
not gonna You're not gonna be able to hold Cal
the forty points, in my opinion, and I think that's
will be the undoing here for a notre game. So
I leaned Col's way before the move. I won't be
betting the full game, but I think you're onto something
with the first half.
Speaker 3: I like that look, and I gotta be fair. I
know you'll you'll record it at the end of the show,
but as we're sitting here and again, lines move. As
we do this show every morning, we probably do it
at a really good time ten to eleven Eastern Time.
But just to be fair to the viewers here, Adam,
this line first half has now gone two and a
half across the board, so no more two is available
that I can see. Don't want to give you a
number that you can't get, so we're gonna for the
parlay leg. We'll call it minus two and a half.
Speaker 1: Right, and again, Paul, Paul, we appreciate the donation, and
again we did hit your game. It's just you're gonna
have to rewind to the beginning of the show, and
we did. We kind of did a probably the most
thorough breakdown of that game. Ten minutes on Michigan State Nebraska.
So just to pull up the replay, Brian said he
wasn't complaining about the chatter thought he and people in
his other room.
Speaker 2: No, it's all good.
Speaker 1: I'm just I'm just saying, we you know, we'll play
a road game if we have to here, we we'll
you know, hostile environment doesn't matter. Rob we're getting we're
getting our shots up. That's that's how this that's how
we roll on this show right here. So we do
have we do have a few minutes left. Let's get
to one more game we have the Harley is locked
in and I'll recap that at the end of the show.
Speaker 3: And I'll know I've been real quick. While you look
up which game we want to talk about here? Speaking
of line moves as we do the show here, we
did talk about New Mexico State FIU first game on
the board today. People want to know about the early game,
and I did give somewhat of a lean toward over
this game. Now, Adam one fifty five and a half
a two and a half point move. This one was
hit simultaneously. So some syndicate group out there likes over
one fifty five and a half Now that number can't
get the one fifty three and a halfs any more.
Speaker 1: I think I found the game people want to talk about.
We'll stay with the always gives me a good chuckle
that we're calling this an ACC game, but it is
Stanford Louisville. You know, the fact that those two Cal
Notre Dame and Stanford Louisville are ACC games will will
never cease to amaze me. But that's what we do
to accommodate football. Apparently rob is just throw a couple
of Pacific Coast teams in the Atlantic Coast Conference. But
this one is not a late game, even though it
isn't Maples Pavilion Louisville on the road.
Speaker 2: They just smashed Cal. Do they smash their rival Stanford
tonight is the question.
Speaker 3: I mean, I think they can definitely. It was ninety
seventy the other night. I said earlier that I think
if I put the profiles of Cal and Stanford up
next to each other, I think Cal is slightly better
and a lot of categories, not majorly better, but slightly
better in a lot of categories. You have to have
a lot of respect for Stanford at a couple of
positions especially at point guard, where they're very, very good. However,
I have written in my notes here Adam as I
just looked at him quickly, Stanford too small defensively. I
don't know that defensively they can stop Louisville especially. You know,
we've talked about Pat Kelcey a lot. He plays one way,
and they play it well up and down the floor.
They're tough to defend, They're tough to for Stanford. They're
going to be tough to out rebound. They're going to
be tough from stopping getting to the rim. All of
these things combined. And my first inclination in this game
off to forty seven to forty was I want to
play this game over over. One fifty seven and a
half is now become one fifty eight. They got the
one sixty against Cal. Cal has a little more offensive
fire privatey. Cal's got three starters who shoot better than
forty one percent from three. Stanford doesn't necessarily have that,
and so seeing Cal only get seventy kind of made
me backtrack off of that total. Don't know that I
like either side the team, although the Louisville team total
would be the one I would lean on for sure,
back to back blowouts inside conference are difficult, but I
think if Louisville was going to have trouble on a
West Coast swing, it would have been in the first game. Here.
They've got rest unless they get cocky at him. I
don't know that. You know, they don't beat Stanford by
ten points here. So my initial lean, like I say,
was to play this full game over. I think Louisville
can definitely get beyond the number here. We'll see how
it goes.
Speaker 1: Andy on total coincidence that so he I saw his comment.
He's like, can you can you get my super chat,
which is I believe the term for attaching the donation.
Speaker 2: I just did you learn something new every day?
Speaker 1: But anyway, he so, thank you for the donation, super chat,
whatever you want to call it. We appreciate it. And
he was asking about this game. So that was total coincidence.
But I'm glad we ended with this one.
Speaker 2: Rob. I'm with you.
Speaker 1: I think that I have real concerns with like Louisville
just going bombs away from three. I know they haven't
shot it like great collectively on the road this season
to this point. But Stanford, you know, they'll go into
his zone, like I had Northridge last week against Stanford,
and it really should have been probably an easier cover
than it was, although it still ended up being like
an easy cover in the end. But they kind of
torched the Stanford zone at one point in that game,
and Louisville very well could do the same thing. I'm
almost all the way in on Pat. I love Pat Kelsey.
He's a top ten coach in college basketball for me.
So yeah, even though this number is big, like you know,
Andy he points out, could be a trap line. I've
also said this a couple of times. I'm not super
high on this Stanford team, this roster. I think they've
kind of been overvalued most of the season. I've actually
had some success playing against them to this point, kicking
myself for not playing Notre Dame, but I just couldn't
justify doing it without Burton. But again, like it's you know,
just Stanford's just not a team I'm dying to back
right now.
Speaker 2: And so I lean Louisville here as well.
Speaker 3: And you talk about getting beaten from outside the arc Adam,
I think one of the things is to note here
is that Louisville marches in with guys six' four or,
better and your perimeter defenders are six two and six.'
one everybody can be shot over top of Here. For
stanford IT'S why i said in the beginning in, MY
notes i Just think stanford's a little too small defensively
to contend With what louisville. Brings to and then you
got to deal with their pace and their. Shooting ability to,
your point they shot thirty seven Threes against cal fourteen of,
thirty seven but that's still forty two points right there
from Beyond.
Speaker 1: The york, all right we've we've. Made it we survived
an hour the road game here if you will got the.
Info out, YOU know i found this whole slate to be.
QUITE challenging a lot of these, numbers were, you know
being primarily. A side we're really only a. SIDE better
a lot of them are falling like very close to
the number. For me one, that didn't which will likely
make the. Client card it's it's it's in the running
with only a couple of other ones that are in
the running for me today is THE leg i used for,
the parley which Was usc we're gonna call it twenty
two and. A half biggest numerical edge on the on
the board for. Me Today and i've had, good luck
believe it, or not like with these these twenty like
big like twenty to thirty, Point dogs i've hit pretty
consistently so far. This Year had dartmouth plus thirty six
and a half. Last week that was an. Easy winner,
SO yeah i like YOU at usc plus twenty two and. A.
Half cal are we calling that first half minus two
and a Half?
Speaker 2: For cal?
Speaker 3: We, DO yeah i think we have to at, this point.
Speaker 1: No problem so there's your two teamer. For today we,
split yesterday so plus four point one six, units season
and that's what we'll go.
Speaker 2: With today pretty standard plus two.
Speaker 1: Sixty odds it's GONNA be usc full game plus twenty
two and a half and then WE'LL go i guess
up the coast Up to Berkeley for cal minus two and.
A half that's a first, half Play so cal first
half minus two and, A half usc plus twenty two and.
A half, all, right guys have a. Good weekend if You're,
in murphysboro hit. Me up my dms, are open but
That's where i'll, be tonight, and yeah we'll see You guys.
Speaker 2: Monday morning, take care