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Speaker 1: You know, because of the fact that they were behind

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the eight ball. Well now, they started lowering interest rates

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sooner than a lot of people thought that they might

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need to. But the reality is that they're trying to

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get in front of the eight ball, and I think

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they've done a great job. I think at this point

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wait and see as the right approach. It hasn't affected

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the stock market. We're still only a few hundred points

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on the Dow off of the all time highs. Consumer

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confidence is over one hundred, well in expansion territory. So

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I think they're navigating everything well and I don't see

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any red flags for the economy or stock market.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network, where you

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get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else to

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thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival

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Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot

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com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival

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Network now more.

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Speaker 3: Than ever, And welcome you are listening to and watching

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the Financial Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lutz. Hey,

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we're at the second to last day of January. This

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month has flown by so much has happened and so

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much hasn't. Anthony Sakara is with US now, financial expert, Anthony.

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Great to have you back on So the Fed says no,

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Trump said they're going to cut rates. Powell said, we're pausing.

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Who's going to win this fight? Yeah, well, Kerrie, thank

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you for having me back. Great to be here as always.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, of course Trump wants interest rates to go down

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because that is going to spur on the economy, and

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Jerome and Powell basically said that we're gonna wait and

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see pattern. The reason is because GDP has sloan, but

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it's still above the level that they want to see

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it at. And inflation has ticked up over you know,

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twenty twenty four as well too, but still in the

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high twos. I think the CPI was two point nine.

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If I'm correct, then the PCE was lower than that.

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But the reality is is the Fed Reserve has this

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balancing act between the labor market and unemployment and inflation.

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Unemployment's been under control for a while. It's currently sitting

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in the four point one percent, but for the last

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year it's been in the high three is low fours.

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That's certainly under control. So their target then has been inflation.

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Their target for inflation is two percent. Now I don't

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believe and a lot of economists don't even believe that

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that's necessarily realistic. It doesn't mean that they have to

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get the two percent before they start cutting though. As

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a matter of fact, that would be a huge mistake

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to do that, because inflation is a lagging indicator. It's

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something that occurs after policy. So once you put policy

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into place, then six months later is when that's going

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to start showing up in inflation. So you have to

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be ahead of the curve. And if you're too far

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ahead of the curve, then six months later it's the

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economy is going to overreact, and not in front of

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the curve enough, then six months later the policies the

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economy is going to underreact. And that's what happened back

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when COVID started. You might remember when they started talking

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about inflation as being transitory and they got that wrong.

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That wasn't But they didn't make any moves and so

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then inflation went out of the you know, went through

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the roof, you know, because of the fact that they

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were behind the eight ball. Well, now they started lowering

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interest rates sooner than a lot of people thought that

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they might need to. But the reality is that they're

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trying to get in front of the eight ball, and

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I think they've done a great job. I think at

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this point, wait and see is the right approach. It

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hasn't affected the stock market. We're still only a few

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hundred points on the Dow off of the all time highs.

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Consumer confidence is over one hundred, well in expansion territory.

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So I think they're navigating everything well. And I don't

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see any red flags for the economy or stock market

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for about six months, and that at any point in time,

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that's really about how far you can look out.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, well, but realistically, the inflation rate is much higher

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than they're admitting, right, So that means that the so

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called economic growth that we're experiencing maybe doesn't really exist.

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Speaker 1: Well, you definitely can argue that, and I don't I

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believe that for sure. When I talked to clients, even yesterday,

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I spoke with a client and throughout that two point

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nine percent CPI number, and his eyes kind of rolled

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in the back of his head because that number doesn't

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include food, it doesn't include energy, and so there are

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some things that are left out and real inflation certainly

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is arguable that is higher than that number, So there's

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no doubt that there's a lot of truth in that statement.

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The reality, though, is that it's the measure that we've

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used for years, and if it's going to be higher

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by some degree, then it's going to be higher year

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over year as well too. The CPI is just the

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measuring stick. So if CPI is a two point nine

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and real inflation is one percent above that, you know,

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three point nine, well, then when CPI goes up, the

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real inflation goes up as well too. So yes, the

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real inflation rate is really going to be higher than

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what the CPI indicates, but it's still relative to being

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able to measure it. It's almost like you know, when

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I get on a scale. If I get on one scale,

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you know I might weigh a certain weight. If I

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get on a different scale, I might weigh a different weight.

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So which one is correct? Well, over time, they're both

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going to go up and down the same regardless of

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the scale, And that's what we're measuring. It is what's

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the increase and what's the decrease, And the fact is

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that inflation has ticked up just a little bit, but

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not so much to where the Federal Reserve needs to raise,

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but certainly enough to where they need to pause. And

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I think pausing was probably a good decision.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, well, so what about the Trump administration's efforts to

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rein in the federal budget, because that's always what the

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Fed's bumping up against, Right, they can't. Monetary policy can

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only go so far. Eventually, fiscal policy has to join

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the Act if you want to bring inflation under control,

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because the deficit is going to get financed by the

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FED no matter what.

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Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, for sure. You know, our GDP has gone

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from watch twenty to one trillion to twenty seven trillion

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just in the recent years. And you know, I believe

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that I like the idea of doge. You know, where

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Trump is about getting rid of all the government waste.

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I think there are so many my own personal beliefs.

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I think there are so many agencies out there that

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were commissioned to start doing something and then really veered

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away from what they were supposed to be doing, and

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now they're not even on task to do anything that

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they were initially set up to do, and it's just

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gotten out of control. And I think when you rain

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that in, then I think the budget's going to get

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in the more in the more realistic territory. But the

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reality is is that is that you know, the the

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Fed do finance it, and it's the budgetary constraints and

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controls that are set by the President and Congress that

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you'll really impact fiscal policy. But I do love the

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pro growth stance that Trump has and the fact that

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he wants the rain and expenses. And you know, we'll

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see how that actually plays out over the next four

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years because it's not all him, right.

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Speaker 3: Right, that's for sure. Well though right now it's all

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him because everything he's doing can be done by executive order.

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One thing I think it's the hugest wild card out

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there that we will We're going to find out about

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soon enough.

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Speaker 1: AI. What's your So the reality is that we get

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a lot of questions about AI. It's it's increased productivity

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for companies in a dramatic way. I use AI virtually

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to send all my emails. At this point, you can't

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craft an email as fast as AI can. It won't

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be as good, it won't be as thorough. It is

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just you know, caused me to be very, very efficient

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with my time, and from a productivity standpoint, when companies

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start to grasp the use of AI, it's going to

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cause their employees to be very, very efficient. The fear

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that I have are are couple fears. The first fear

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is the fact that if you have broken English and

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you can, you know, halfway say a sentence in the AI,

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you can essentially create a resume, and this resume is

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going to be the best resume that anyone on the

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face of this planet has ever seen because it was

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automatically generated. And when we get that resume to our office,

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we don't really know anything about you. Same thing with

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an email. You send an email to us that wasn't

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drafted by you, we don't really know anything about you.

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We're not sure who we're dealing with. There are AI

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platforms now that could take my face and make me

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say what it is, and this whole entire interview could

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actually be done by AI, and you wouldn't know whether

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it was me or AI doing it. Now. I have

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to tell you, Carrie, it's me, but you wouldn't know,

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and so it's scary from that standpoint. But from an

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investor standpoint, the fear that I would have is We've

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had calls from people trying to jump on the bandwagon

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to try to find that. You know, how do I

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invest in chat ept open Ai And that's a mistake.

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You know, people are looking for the next apple where

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they can put ten thousand dollars into and then you know,

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in fifteen or twenty years have millions of dollars. And

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you have to remember, for every apple, there were probably

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ten thousand failed apples, and so you don't want to

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chase it. And that's the fear that I have is

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a lot of people are trying to get get rich quick,

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and you still need to have a balance averts by portfolio,

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but not trying to find the one thing, you know,

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the the n video that you think is going to

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be great over the next ten years.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, But the other thing is the impact on the

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overall economy. It's just progressing way faster than anybody out

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there except for the real insiders understand like Elon must

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have been warning about.

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Speaker 1: It for years.

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Speaker 3: But now it's going to hit critical mass. It's going

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to change everything.

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Speaker 1: One hundred You know, the reality is that it already

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has changed a lot of things. It's changed things in

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the pharmaceutical world, that can analyze medical conditions faster than

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any human can and much more accurate and you know,

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do analysis. The reality though, is that as it does this,

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not only is it going to be more efficient, the

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question I should say is whether it's going to cost jobs?

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Is it going to actually take place of workers? And

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there's arguments that say, because it's so efficient you need less, we're.

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Speaker 3: Going to it is, there's no question, But.

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Speaker 1: There is the other side that says, well, we're going

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to need.

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Speaker 3: More workers for the end. No, but no, and I

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agree with you.

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Speaker 1: The reality is that it's it is going to take

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job in my opinion as far as that's concerned. But

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now look at what's happened. China came out the other

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day with this Sikh and Ali Baba has a program

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where now they're starting to be even more efficient, and

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the stock market didn't necessarily like that, The NAZAC didn't

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like that, you know, but all of a sudden, realizing

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that our own AI system can be much more efficient

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than it is. And whereas open ai was pretty much

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the only one out there, and all of a sudden,

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there's a couple of competitors in there.

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Speaker 3: So there's Grock three is the one to watch which

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is hooked into X point is it's going to take jobs.

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There's no question in my mind, because for me, using

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AI could be about ten to twenty times more effective

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then i'd be. Otherwise, if you're a lawyer and you're

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not using AI, you don't know what you're doing, well,

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that's lost. I might because somebody sent me a couple

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of contracts. I don't even practice anywhere, Anthony. You know

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that I'm America's top recovering attorney, and they wanted me

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to look them both through. And it's like, I'm not

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getting paid for this, and I got the genius idea.

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Just load both of them into chat GPT, I said,

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compare each section of these agreements and in a third

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put one in one column revision A, and one revision

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B and two and put the meaning of each clause

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in column three. And it took all of about a

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minute and a half to do it. It was slow

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that day. And then I looked through it. You know,

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obviously the parts of the agreement that you know that

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was the easy part. Interpreting it is the difficult part.

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I'd say I'd give it a ninety five on the

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interpretation all I did was change around a couple of

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things because I didn't like it, but it gave me

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a starting point. I replaced a couple and it took

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me all of fifteen minutes what would have taken me

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hours in the past. So even lawyers aren't safe. This

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is a white collar of threat. And you know, I

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think the impact is unimaginable, and we'll see it very quickly.

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In the next six months, six to eighteen months, you

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won't recognize the world. And then five years, who the

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heck knows?

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Speaker 1: Oh, I fully, fully agree.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely.

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Speaker 1: I heard someone say I don't know a year year

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and a half ago. As soon as really open, AI

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kind of came out whenever that was, and he said,

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if you don't, if you're not scared to death of

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artificial intelligence, or you're not excited out of your mind,

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you just don't understand it. I think there's truth on

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both of those things. Scared to death for the reasons

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that I talked about earlier is that you can impersonate

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someone and you know, at some point you don't really

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know who you're dealing with. And I'm worried about our kids.

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You know, if you tell this thing to write a

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paper about you know, the Great Depression of nineteen twenty nine.

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It will come out and that's all you need to

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tell it. Literally, it will write the best paper you've

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ever seen. And the plagiarism that can go on and

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the cheating that can go on, you know, all of

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a sudden, you have kids that are not intelligent at all,

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because they don't need to be. They just need to

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tell something what to do, and it thinks for you.

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And it does take the place of thinking, which is

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what scares me to death about it. The exciting part

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is the efficiency of the efficiency, the calculations, the analysis.

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If you want to do a study of the stock

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market history, you can go into chat GPT and say,

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you know, give me a one page report on the

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history of the stock market. It will do all that.

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It's just absolutely amazing. It will write your emails, like

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you said, it will analyze your documents. You know, as

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an attorney. Every now and then, I'll have it right

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legal documents for me. You you know, you know, got practicing,

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so you might not even be aware. I can go

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in there and have it write a legal document for

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me and just tell what to do and it will

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come up with the perfect legal document hits it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you just got to not pull a Michael Cohne.

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You got to check those sites because that and make

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stuff up. So check them, because you just feed the

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sites into the inter chat GP pulls up the case

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and you're there. You know, it's interesting. Elon Musk said,

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they've run out of data to feed the thing. It's

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gotten all the data it possibly can, and now it's

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got to like make up its own data and figure

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out stuff from there. It's pretty wild, and yeah, you can't.

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It's like to me, it's like when you have the

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Tesla autopilot. You could theoretically just let the car drive,

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but you've got to be supervising it and checking its work.

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But we're going to get to the point where you

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won't have to. There's no question the Chinese one has

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its limitations. I already hit it. It looks very good on

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the surface. It wouldn't surprise me if it's just a

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front end to some other you know, it's just a

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front end to some other a that's already out there working.

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I mean, you know, I think they found a slicker

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way to figure that stuff out. And don't ask it

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about Teman Square or Taiwan, because you're not going to

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get a straight answer, Anthony. So investing, where are we

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going to be at the end of the year when

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we have our end of the year call mark it up, down, sideways,

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rates higher, lower, economy booming or busting.

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Speaker 1: So I don't see anything in the near future, including

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this year, that is going to cause a bust in

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the economy. I think we'll be higher in a year

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than we are from now because of the pro growth

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policies that Trump is put into play, because the tax

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policies are most likely going to get extended you know

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as well too, So I think you're at the end

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of the year, we're higher. The reality though, is that

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we're not out of the recession possibility yet and that

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I think that's important to understand. You know, you're gonna

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get a lot of opinion on all these different news

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networks in media. Some people think higher, some people think lower,

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and you know, you almost get that, at least for

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me when people I've talked to from my radio show

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or you know, otherwise, you almost get that fomal feeling.

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I've talked to a lot of people that feel, you

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know that that maybe got conservative last year or before Trump.

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A lot of people, especially in California, you got more

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conservative before Trump because they thought everything was going to crash.

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If it's the same thing that happened last time, right,

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and the same result happened last time too. Nothing happened,

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nothing crashed, And so there is this fear missing out.

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And my fear is that if this fomo takes over

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and you start to act emotionally and not necessarily intelligently,

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then you can let your emotions take over and you

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can go all in. And if we have a recession

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or a crash, and that's not out of the possibility.

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If we have a recession or crash and you're on

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the bringer retirement, it could cost you your retirement if

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you if you're younger, keep dollar cost averaging in and

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whether the market's up or down, dollar cost averaging is

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the best way to go. It drives the average purchase

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price down. But if you're older, meaning within five years

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of retirement, you probably want to take this opportunity to

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take some chips off the table and start shoring up

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your portfolio. Our yield curve is none inverted now. It

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was inverted for years, and that's a sign of recession. Yes,

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but many recessions have occurred after the yield curve uninverted,

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and so just because it uninverted, a lot of people

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think that r out of the woods. That's not the case.

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So the answer a question is, I think we're going

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to be up for the next six months. I think

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even the year. I have strong feeling that it's going

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to be a good year. But it's not. Nothing's for

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certain when it comes to the market.

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Speaker 3: You just have to be careful, all right, the trump bump.

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You know, like they said in that movie Full Metal Jacket,

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men will live and die, but the core is forever.

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Men will live and die, but the markets forever, Yes, sir,

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all right, Hey tell us how do we connect with you?

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How do we find you on the web?

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Speaker 1: Sure? Absolutely, Probably the best place is just go to

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Anthony Scaro dot com. That'll lead you to my law firm.

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00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:11,279
It'll lead you to my financial firm. Or you can

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00:19:11,279 --> 00:19:15,680
search Anthony Sikar anywhere on Google Providence Financial and Insurance

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00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:18,079
Services the name of my company. You can search that

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on the website or go to Providence Financial Inc. Dot com.

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Speaker 3: All right, excellent. Hey, Well, if you've got a question

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for Anthony myself, shoot me an email kl atcarrielts dot

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com and you'll find a link to Anthony's site in

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00:19:31,079 --> 00:19:35,960
the show notes This interview on Financial Survival Network dot com.

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Speaker 1: Oh esks.

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Speaker 3: While you're there, please sign up for your free newsletter.

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Like over sixty seven thousand other FSN community members have

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appreciate you coming on, Anthony, we'll talk to you again

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real soon.

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Speaker 1: Thank you, Kerry.

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00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:52,039
Speaker 2: Great to be here, Thanks for listening to Carrie Let's's

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00:19:52,039 --> 00:19:57,119
Financial Survival Network your solution to today's trying times. For

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00:19:57,200 --> 00:20:02,480
the latest, go to Financial Survival Network. Financial Survival Network

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00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:04,400
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