Speaker 1: Check it out. College football on the West Coast. This
is Get Off My Pylon, a look at the PAC
twelve and more, part of the College Gridiron Coast to
Coast podcast network. Here's your host, that Zemon.
Speaker 2: Welcome to the latest edition of Get Off My Pilon
college football podcast. This is your host, Matt Zemmit Get
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on Apple, Spreaker, Spotify, the other places where you listen
to your podcast. So Get Off My Pylon. We cover
western college football in the United States. The roundup's not
going to be too long. They're going to be a
little bit more digging a little bit more into the
previews for the two really big games coming up in
week thirteen. We'll get to those in just a moment.
So the roundup's going to be short because let's just
tick things off here one by one. On the list,
Callen Stanford didn't play. They play what's called big game.
You know, there's the big game. There is the game,
but cal Stanford is big game. No, the it's just
big game for the acts in the Bay area. Stanford
hosts this coming weekend, so both teams got a break.
They have two weeks to prepare for each other, so
they didn't play this week. The two pack. Washington State
over Louisiana Tech, easy win for the Cougars. Oregon State
gets flattened by Tulsa. The Beavers continue to struggle, So
not a whole lot there. Mountain West San Diego State
smothers Boise State seventeen to seven. It's just been remarkable
how Boise State's offense has cratered nothing at quarterback this season.
It's been a disaster. It has been a real mess
for second year coach Spencer Danielson. Priority number one by
far for Boise State this coming off season, get a
big time quarterback in the transfer portal that is the
Broncos road to renewed relevance. They just stepped in a
pothole this year. They miss Ashton genty kind of like
Colorado without Travis Hunter and also shadur Both those Western
programs just stepped in a ditch this season after losing
really really awesome high end players who are at the
top of the Heisman leader board last season, they did
not find replacements. Very safe to say so, San Diego
State in the Mountain West over Boise State, but of
course the Mountain West not a factor in the playoff picture.
Like James Madison is now the one non American conference team,
the Dukes under Bob Chesney. And by the way, Bob
Chesney like he's he's a hot item in the coaching
carousel and Ucla. Ucla couldn't get Kurt Signetti, he's over
in Indiana, like UCLA was never gonna get Kurt Signetti.
But maybe UCLA can get the next James Madison coach
as you know, a return to renewed prominence in the
Big Ten. That might be the name at the top
of UCLA's leader board. And by the way, we record
this with James Franklin just having been hired at Virginia Tech.
So one domino falls in the coaching carousel. So the
market's different for UCLA, markets different for Arkansas. Kind of
heard some rumors speculation about Arkansas and maybe what about Auburn.
You know, James Franklin making a relocation to the SEC.
Well he's not going to the SEC, He's going to
the ACC. And so UCLA continues its search for a coach.
Bob Chesney of James Madison might be the guy. So
the Mountain West just irrelevant. Been a horrible year, and
of course next year you're gonna have realignment. You're going
to have an actual PAC twelve in a reconstituted form.
Essentially it'll be a Pack eight. The PAC twelve brand
still exists. Older fans will know there was a Pack
eight in the mid nineteen seventies until Arizona and Arizona
State joined in nineteen seventy eight to form the PAC ten,
which lasted just over thirty years, you know, through twenty ten.
And then of course in twenty eleven, Colorad and Utah
joined to form the PAC twelve. So just a rocky
time of it for the Mountain West in its final
season of the familiar iteration. And it's all gonna be
redesigned next season with an actual PAC twelve that's not
just Washington State and Oregon State, but they'll have the
minimum eight football schools, Gonzaga going to the PAC twelve
for basketball. So the Mountain West as we have known
it going out not with a bang, but with a whimper.
So onto the Big twelfth part of our roundup, the
big story. Arizona goes to Cincinnati and beats the Bearcats
and Brent Brennan a lot of Arizona fans were downing
him in the offseason, and it was just curious how
just it seemed like a very uneasy vibe into soon
after one year, you know, and there was a lot
to clean up, and you know, Jedfish didn't take everybody
to Seattle when he went to Washington to coach the Huskies,
but he did take some players, and so that just
didn't seem as though though that was an instant fix.
But Brent Brennan definitely struggle in year one. But like
Arizona fans were really freaked out. And as we see
Arizona continue to win games on the road in the
Big Twelve, Brent Brennan, who I thought was a good hire,
establishing himself. He's solidifying his position at Arizona. The win
over Cincinnati beyond, you know, establishing Arizona as a program
that seems to be back in the mix and regaining relevance.
And we'll see what Brent Brennan does in twenty six
with that program. But the big national story is that
is now a huge blow to Cincinnati as it tries
to make the Big Twelve championship game, and it lets
Utah and Arizona State back in play like they really
needed that to happen. Utah on ASU, so they're still
in the mix, not completely out of it. And it
sets up a BYU Cincinnati game that we'll talk about
just a moment in our Big Game previews for the
next week. So that's the Big Twelve. BYU takes care
of TCU. Kind of weird. BYU was just a two
and a half point favorite at home at night. BYU's
only loss was at Texas Tech, which many would agree
is the best team in the Big Twelve on paper.
In terms of talent, you know, all the nil investments
made by the Red Raiders, and TCU is a mediocre
team like TCU who lost at home to Iowa State.
The horn Frogs have blown other leads this season, have
not been very impressive. You know, that twenty twenty two
run to the National Championship Game becomes even more of
an outlier, even more of a one hit wonder as
we go along. B YU was just a two and
a half point favorite at home at night versus TCU.
Hope you took the Cougars minus to two and a half.
And on the money line, if you're in a place
where sports betting is allowed, you cashed very, very very
easily if you did so. BYU took care of business.
Cincinnati did not. That's going to set up that BYU
Cincinnati game we're going to talk about in just a
little bit. And then in the PAC twelve, excuse me,
the PAC twelve, I'm thinking of the PAC twelve and
three four years ago. In terms of the Western teams
in the Big Ten, you know, not a whole lot
to talk about. UCLA was off Washington, Clobard, Purdue, you know,
as just zero surprises in a game that did not
mean a whole lot for Washington. Now that the Huskies
are out of the College Football Playoff, Oregon crushes Minnesota
on Friday night as expected. Just not a lot there.
You know, with Ucla, we've already talked about the head
coaching search. The Bruins get obliterated by Ohio State. I
might have just inadvertently said the Bruins took the week
off or they were off. Yeah, they might as well
have been, you know, because they didn't have Nico Iomliyava,
So of course they were going to get absolutely hammered
by Ohio State. I'm actually amazed Ucla scored ten points.
I thought Ucla was going to get shut out in
that game with that Nico, So you could even say
that the Bruins overachieved slightly, but we knew that was
a non event. I hope v NBC had fun televising
that game in prime time, like anyone outside the state
of Ohio probably not watching it. I had to watch
it because I cover Ucla, But like, why would you
watch that on your own, you know, on your own
free will. There was Texas, Georgia, there was Florida, Ole,
miss some really interesting games. In that window. Uclo House
state not one of them. So the only really really
interesting game to go over from Week twelve in the
Big Ten among the Western teams was USC Iowa. Now
this this was a really interesting one. USC down fourteen
to nothing, down twenty one seven, down twenty one ten
at the half, and you're thinking, yep, typical soft Lincoln
Riley USC team. I was thinking it. I covered that game,
of course, since I covered USC as well as UCLA.
I mean, Iowa punched USC in the mouth and Iowa
threw the ball with success as well, Like USC allowed
Iowa to throw the ball well in the rain, and
that was the other part. In the rain in the coliseum.
How many times is it rainy in the Los Angeles Coliseum.
It doesn't happen very often. Yet Iowa just you know,
looked very comfortable in those conditions. And USC has had
a pattern to start very slowly first twenty minutes of games.
This has been happening for weeks, Like the defense was
poor in the first twenty minutes against Northwestern, poor in
the first twenty minutes against Nebraska. So this has been
going on a lot with us C. It's not in
this this Iowa game was not an operation in that regard.
It was part of a trend. So you're thinking, Okay,
you know Iowa with its rugged defense, Kirk Farren, you know,
statistically good pass defense. Although like this is something to
get into with the Big Ten that you know, there
aren't a lot of great quarterbacks in the Big Ten
and for that matter, in college football. So like national
ranking in terms of past defense, you know, I don't
know how much meaning we should assign to that. I
don't know how much value one should have for certain
kinds of defensive rankings, defensive metrics, including against the past.
Here's something now, I have a friend. He's not a
regular college football rider. He used to be a colleague
of mind at Trojan's Wire. But his name is Josh Webb,
and he has helped me with some research. I asked him,
and by the way, I paid him like I pay
my researchers. I asked him to do something very specific.
I asked, Josh, hey, can you go through Power four
or you know, when the Pac twelve still existed in
its previous commonly known form with USC, Oregon, Washington, and UCLA.
Give me all the Power four or Power five versus
Power four Power five games, So not power four versus
the Group of five or fcs, just power four versus
Power four, Power five versus Power five when the PAC
twelve still existed. Give me all the games in which
both teams both teams scored at least thirty, thirty five, forty,
or forty five points from twenty twenty two through twenty
twenty five. And I know we're not fully done with
twenty twenty five, but you know, I wanted it through
this weekend. So there are some numbers to share, all right,
power four slash five versus Power four slash five, like,
you know, not counting the American Conference, not counting the
Mountains maction, you know, because those are you know, it's
the it's the minor leagues of college football. We can
all generally agree, maybe not the American but certainly like
the MAC that's you know, lower tier football. So I didn't.
I didn't. I wanted this research project to be such that,
you know, people couldn't say, oh, well, the lower conferences
are inflating the totals here. I just wanted to focus
on the power fives, Power fours, the big boys. So
here are the numbers. Games with power Power Conference games
with both teams scoring at least thirty points in the
same game, so, in other words, a shootout. Like I'm
trying to I'm trying to track the number of shootouts
among Power conference teams power conference games only in recent years.
So twenty twenty two there were sixty four of those
games at the Power four level, so not even counting
group of five, and not even counting Power Conference versus
Group of five, just power conferences, sixty four in twenty
twenty two, fifty six in twenty twenty three, fifty four
in twenty twenty four, and through Week twelve of twenty
twenty five only thirty six. And of those thirty six,
there have been only six games six games at the
Power four level this season in which both teams have
scored at least forty in twenty twenty two, fourteen, in
twenty twenty three, thirteen. So do you see where I'm
getting with this? Like I had a hunch, this is
why I asked my friend Josh Webb to do this
research project. It was my hunch, and the hunch was
proven right, although maybe not by not in a dramatic way,
Like we're not talking about you know, several dozens of
games difference, but still it's a noticeable difference. Sixty four
games with at least with both teams scoring at least
thirty in twenty twenty two and we are at thirty
six through week twelve in twenty twenty five. That's that's
a notable drop off. Now sixty you know, sixty four
to fifty six and then fifty four last year not
so much. But yeah, this year, this is what I'm
getting at. This year, there have been fewer shootouts in
college football. There have been It's like you just do
not see forty five forty two games anymore. And it's
just kind of notable that the Pac twelve died and
the shootouts are going down. I don't think that's an accident.
And Oklahoma and Texas and the SEC instead of the
Big twelve, like, those events seem to have a real
connection to the decrease in the number of true shootouts
defined by games in which at least both teams are
scoring at least thirty a game in the same game.
That that is notable. And so it leads me to
back to what I was saying about Iowa's pass defense. Okay,
Iowa has a high higher rank pass defense. But this
is a sport which and like this is like this
is really worth some investigation here, right, Fewer shootouts, fewer
bonkers games with massive point totals. You know, it occurs
to me that you know, running clock on first downs, Okay,
you know that's going to play a role in this.
So you're having fewer plays, shorter games. So yeah, yards
per play, that would have something to do with it,
number of plays per game, I get it. But but
still is that the whole story? What would really be
interesting to get a feel for that. And of course,
you know, incomplete passes still stop the clock. Touchdowns stop
the clock. You know, if you pass the ball instead
of running the ball, you're going to have short You're
still going to have shorter drives. So not everything is
completely different, but obviously, you know, the running clock rules
have played a role indisputably. Nevertheless, you know, when we
talk about what we expect from teams in games, the
offenses just do not seem as prolific as they used
to be, and the numbers, at least to a certain extent,
back that up. So I'm I'm just not taking that
much stock in overall pass defense in pass efficiency ratings.
It's a different sport. This sport is very different from
how it was in twenty twenty two. You know, COVID
the twenty twenty season and then twenty twenty one as well,
those were just aberrational years because COVID messed everything up.
There was so much flux in the sport and ways
that you know don't really translate to a quote unquote
natural or normal season. But let's just say twenty twenty
two when the sport looked and felt more normal, we
kind of got back into a quote unquote regular kind
of season after those two COVID years. This speels like
a different sport compared to twenty twenty two. We're not
talking about the offenses dominating, not as much as we
used to. It just it just was not as wide
open a sport. Recall that, you know, in the twenty
twenty two playoff semi finals, we had Ohio State and
Georgia playing a shootout and like those guys had dudes
on defense. Georgia certainly did, uh, But you saw, you
know CJ. Stroud play an elite game for Ohio State
in that game that that Peach Bowl semifinal game, like
the ceiling for quarterbacks was higher, and and that all
that that gets into something else I'm gonna talk about
in a little bit, So let me just wrap up
this USC Iowa game though, But like I wanted to
get on that point about Iowa's pass defense, Like, yes,
it's impressive that Jade and Mayava and McKayle Lemon, and
by the way, mikayle Lemon for USC best game by
our wide receiver in college football all season. I dare
you to find any game better than that. Then that's
not me wearing USC home or glasses either. Like this
dude was making du solet catches, Like this was the
flying circus for McKayle Lemon, and he got locked down
by More Dame and also Nebraska, so like I'm not
denying that he had two mediocre games this season, but
like this was the best of McKayle Lemon and it
was absolutely spectacular, and Mayava was you know, this is
where Jade Miyava gets credit. He was trusting his guy
to make a play. But it's not as though he
was making the perfect throw. It was McKayle Lemon making
these acrobatic catches. To fuel USC's comeback. So that's obviously
one part of the story for USC. The other part is,
and this was the surprise shutting out Iowa in the
second half, and Danton Lynn us He's defensive coordinator, he's
had a tough year. USC's defense has not been as
good this year as it was last year. And Danton
Lynn has spoken recently about you know, having young guys
and how it's hard to bring them along and you know,
like their learning curve is slow, like you can't expect
them to all get it right away. He said that's
been part of the reason for US he struggles. But
Danton Lynn is getting things done at halftime in recent
weeks against Nebraska dominant second half, against Northwestern dominant second half,
and now against Iowa dominant second half. So there is
a sense that us he is beginning to figure things out.
You're beginning to see improvement from the from the underclassmen
on the roster, and so really, this was by far
the most impressive win that Lincoln Riley and his USC
program have had since twenty twenty two. There was nothing
in twenty twenty three or twenty four that rose to
this level like USC really showed some toughness and unlike
the Nebraska game. You know, the Nebraska game was a
situation in which Dylan Roola gets hurt midway through and
Nebraska with Rayola, jumped out to an early lead, looked
really comfortable and then TJ Latif the backup he could
not throw the ball. He could not not on that night. Now,
he did get better against UCLA later this season, but
that was UCLA, right, not the same comparison. So when
Nebraska couldn't throw the ball in the second half, the
Huskers were handcuffed. USC did well to win that game.
That's why the Trojans are still alive in the playoff rays.
It mattered, but kind of an asterisk there because Dylan
Roola got hurt. If Dylanrola doesn't get hurt, I'm thinking
Nebraska probably wins that game. No guarantees, but Huskers probably
would have had the advantage down the stretch. So you
can't say that about this Iowa game. This Iowa game,
Iowa didn't have any injuries and USC actually was shorthanded.
No Kamari Ramsey, the excellent safety, possibly USC's best defensive player.
He was out and just to make another comparison. Caamari
Ramsey did not play for USC in its loss at Illinois.
Urlier this season, he came down with food poisoning. So
USC without Ramsey against Illinois terrible. USC without Ramsey against
Iowa a lot better. So that tells you that other
guys are stepping up, other guys are improving. You're getting
more from the full depth chart for danton lyn'z defense
at USC. So obviously some evolution and growth occurring for USC.
And the toughness that the Trojan showed nineteen straight points
after being down twenty one to seven to beat a
good Iowa team, not a great one, but a good
one like Iowa took Oregon to the wire in Kinnick
in Iowa City the previous week. So you know, USC
put in some work. And that's why Lincoln Riley was
really fired up, like he knows he's not getting it
done at USC. He knows, he knows he's been falling short.
That's why he was so emotive because there was a
sense that, ah, this is what I've been waiting for.
I've been waiting to see this kind of toughness from
my guys. I'm waiting to see my team really respond
to adversity. Lincoln Riley was really fired up. He usually
doesn't get very fired up, but he was after this
game rightly. So I've been a critic of his well,
you know, I'm not going to sidestep that, been very
critical of his stewardship of the USC program Saturday. Okay,
this was progress, This was a real step forward. But
of course it's not the end of the story. So
that's USC Iowa. And now we just turned to these
two really big games BYU Cincinnati for the Big twelve,
you know, and so Utah and Arizona State they are
praying for Cincinnati to win. Now that Cincinnati had that
second loss to Arizona like that opens the door. It
opens the path for Utah and Arizona States to get
back into this thing and face Texas Tech in the
Big twelve championship game. So with Cincinnati losing again, now
if Cincinnati can take care of BYU, you know, that
opens up a multiple team tie into which Utah and
Arizona State are going to have a chance at this thing.
So so Utah in Salt Lake City and Tempe they're
going to be praying for Cincinnati having just lost to
Arizona to now drag BYU down into a muddle, into
a cluttered group behind Texas Tech. That those are the
stakes involved now for BYU Cincinnati. So BYU, you know,
handled business against TCU got demolished at Texas Tech. And
that was the game where you know, BYU finally paid
the price for slow starts on the road. And BYU
was down at least ten, sometimes fourteen, but at least
ten in every instance on the road at Colorado, at
Iowa State, at Arizona. Came back to win all three.
But like you can't keep playing with fire, and so
BYU gets burned against Texas Tech. Cincinnati's not as good
as Texas Tech. But if you're BYU, like you need
a decent first half, maybe not great, but like be
tied at halftime, be at least even maybe down three. Okay,
But if BYU fall fallows behind ten nothing, fourteen, nothing,
I'm not thinking the Cougar's chances are very good. Like
you just can't keep going down this road. Bear Bachmeier,
the freshman, he's been sensational this season. He looked absolutely
awesome against TCU. Cincinnati's defense looked terrible against Arizona. So
like there is a window here for BYU to win.
And by the way, if you're interested, BYU favored by
two and an half in the early line. But BYU's
offense has to show up the whole way. Can't just
you know, snooze for the first twenty thirty minutes and
then expect to rally in the second half. No, b
YU needs to land some punches, land some haymakers early
in this game, the way Arizona did. Wildcats got off
to a great early start, early burst, and that settled
them down. I think BYU needs to land that first
punch and so at least it gets to halftime relatively even.
And then BYU has been a great second half team
the whole season, you know Texas Tech excluded. So BYU
I think to win needs to score really big. Like
I don't see BYU winning this game twenty four to
twenty with its defense. No, BYU is gonna need to
score in the thirties to win this game because Cincinnati's
defense is not imposing at all. So bear Bachmeyer needs
to put to put it together for sixty minutes at
least like forty five or fifty. Can't wait until halftime
to really pick things up. So BYU needs, if not
a complete sixty minute game, at least a forty five
minute game against Cincinnati. I think if Cincinnati's defense can
just do reasonable damage control not give up the home
run force field goals in the red zone, Cincinnati's offense
certainly has more than enough to trouble BYU's defense. And
of course, if Cincinnati can get that ten oh fourteen
oh lead that other BYU opponents on the road have
gained this season, you know, just the odds of the
Cougars doing it one more time are just pretty remote.
So this is part of what I love about college football.
I think in college football, more than the NFL, what
happens in the first quarter can really determine the whole
flow of the game. NFL is more of you know,
it's about what happens at the end. I mean, just
as the Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears like it seems
to not matter what happens in the first forty five
minutes of a Bronco or Bear game, it goes down
to the final minute and they win absolutely crazy the
way some teams have been just winning games at the
very end, or in the case of the Kansas City
Chiefs losing at the very end. The NFL like has
a way of just you know, it all comes down
to the final few minutes, kind of like the NBA
in many ways as well, like it's just kind of
like Cardio for the first three quarters and then it's
all about what happens in the fourth quarter. B YU
Cincinnati doesn't feel like that kind of game, doesn't feel
like a game that's just gonna where you can say,
of course it's gonna go down to the end. No,
I think the first quarter, first half are gonna be
highly determinative of the outcome in Cincinnati. So that's gonna
be a great one. It's a night game on Fox,
one of the big show downs on Saturday. But before
that night game, you have the mid afternoon game, the
three thirty window on the CBS USC at Oregon, and
it means everything because USC was able to get past Iowa.
If USC had lost to Iowa, Trojans would be out
of the playoff conversation. But now you have a game
between two teams vying for the playoff, and I know
this part of the national conversation is, you know it's
the SEC gonna get five teams, maybe even six into
the playoff, Like is if USC beats Oregon, are both
teams gonna be out of the playoff. That's a talking point.
Not gonna say whether it's right or wrong. I'm just
gonna say that is a talking point right now. I'm
not gonna wade into that because they're gonna play, all right,
They're gonna play, and then we can see what the
landscape is. You know what else is gonna happen in
the sec these next few weeks, Like if Alabama lo
is to Auburn, what happens? Then you know what happens
if Texas loses to A and M, or off of
that matter, beats A and M. How's that going to
affect everything? Vanderbilt Tennessee is gonna be a huge game.
So so many dominoes, so many variables left on the board.
So I'm not going to resolve the USC Oregon playoff question.
I will just say this, it's a game that both
teams better win, right, don't leave it up to chance
get the win. And of course you know Oregon does
have some wiggle The real question is how much USC
has none. USC absolutely has to win. We all agree
on that, And so as we slice and dice this game,
it's worth going back to the earlier point about shootouts
in college football, quality of offenses, quality of passing games,
and quality of quarterbacks. And this is a quarterback game.
You know, Mayava, Dante Moore, whoever. If one side has
the quarterback who clearly performs better, like, it's a decisive win.
If it's a draw, then we lean Oregon. But if
Jade and Mayava can decisively outplay Dante Moore, USC probably wins. Obviously,
if Moore is able to even slightly play outplay Mayava,
Oregon almost certainly wins. But if USC can score a
knockout at the quarterback spot in Mayava just out playing
Dante Moore by a large, large margin, that's how USC
wins this game. But is Jade and Mayava that good?
And obviously he was good to a certain extent against Iowa.
He didn't throw the third quarter or second half interception
that's really been a part of a lot of his
games over the past six weeks. Like he threw a
third quarter interception against Illinois, he threw a second half
in or sception against Notre Dame. He threw a second
half interception against Nebraska, and he threw an interception not
in the second half, but in the first half against Northwestern,
and he made a tackle short of the goal line
forced a fumble. In forcing that fumbles what saved USC
in that game. So he's been littering the statue with interceptions,
but against Iowa there was no big stumble, no big
mistake in the second half. That's part of why USC won.
But now, like autin Stadium Oregon, Dan Lanning, for all
the toastedos, it's a bigger challenge than Iowa at home.
Not that i was bad. I was a good team,
but i was not a great team. And Oregon having
set a high standard in recent years under Dan Lanning,
like this is the big boy challenge that Jade Mayava
has to answer. It's also the challenge that USC has
to answer on the road. Now. USC won at Nebraska,
but it was not an impressive performance. No one would
say that was impressive. As I mentioned earlier, the Dylan
Roola injury really affected the outcome of that game. USC,
against a good opponent on the road in twenty twenty five,
has not played a complete sixty minute football game US.
He was not spectacular at Purdue, and Purdue isn't even
a good team. USC obviously made a ton of mistakes
at Notre Dame on a night when the Irish didn't
even play their best game. CJ. Carr struggled in that game,
but USC made Notre Dame made a lot of mistakes.
USC made even more mistakes and worse mistakes. It's been
a long long time since a Lincoln Riley USC team
played a complete game on the road. You could even say,
has it ever happened? The win over Oregon State in
twenty twenty two. It was ugly, but like USC really
stiffened up, showed some backbone against a good team on
the road. There was the twenty twenty two Utah game
in which USC's offense was tremendous, scoring forty two, but
that Alex Grinch defense gave up forty three. So really,
against a good team on the road, Lincoln Riley's USC
has never really played the perfect road game. Some good ones,
but not any great ones. Well, from a USC perspective,
it's time for USC to play a complete game now.
As of just in terms of the realm of predictions,
of prognostication and analysis, is us likely to play a
complete game. Very definitely not, because USC has a problem
with the first fifteen to twenty minutes of games. And
so while second half adjustments halftime adjustments are all well
and good, but if USC snows is in the first
twenty minutes in this game the way it has been
the last several weeks, Oregon's going to be up twenty
one nothing and it's game over. Second half adjustments aren't
going to matter. So USC's defense, a young defense, has
to be able to hang together early, has to avoid
an early Oregon surge and then settle into the game.
And and so in many ways, there is a parallel
with BYU Cincinnati. BYU and USC both need to weather
the storm in the first half set up the game
for the second half. They can achieve that on the
road both teams are on the road, then they can win.
But if they get snowed in in the first quarter,
first twenty minutes, very very unlikely they're gonna be able
to get it done. So let's talk a little bit
more about Oregon. Of course I cover USC regularly, but
obviously I'm following Oregon as well. And you know, if
there are questions about Jade and Mayava. There are also
questions about Dante Moore. Now, Dante Moore, He's cool underfires.
That is his number one attribute at Penn State, at Iowa,
huge stuffing, kating pressure. Dante Moore leads his team calmly
down the field, gets the job done in immense pressure situations.
So like you want him in your fox hole. Good teammate,
good leader. There's a lot of good about Dante Moore.
But just in terms of play to play, drive to drive, consistency,
sure he's still out and I've seen the NFL level throws.
He can throw a rope, There's no question about it.
The late pass against Iowa. Also made some crossfield throws
against Penn State. But those are just glimpses, you know,
in terms of the whole body of work, the whole season,
full games, it's been up and down, Like he got
dominated by Indiana at home, and of course Indiana is
in a higher weight class than usc is and Kurt
Signetti is a better coach right now than Lincoln Riley is.
I mean, Signetti is kind of in his ownly really
if you think about it. So you know, Dante Moore
has not had a smooth ride he's come up big
in the clutch, but overall, like he did not throw
the ball that well against Iowa through an interception in
the red zone, struggled against Wisconsin and the Badger's defense.
Like he's been pretty ordinary. You know, He's Oregon scored
sixty nine points early in the season against Oklahoma State,
but then we realized how bad Oklahoma State was, and
so really, Dante Moore and Jade and Myava, there are
a lot of similarities, a lot of parallels, a lot
of common threads. Like they absolutely roasted bad teams. Mayava
roasted Purdue and especially Michigan State, also Missouri State, Georgia,
Southern North Northwestern as well, especially in the second half.
But you know, Maama struggled against Notre Dame, struggled against Nebraska.
That's also why the Iowa game is so intriguing, because
this was actually a good opponent. Mayava elevated his level,
but that's one game and it was at home. Now
can he do it on the road against Oregon? Big test?
And it's similar for Dante Moore. You know, he's been
ordinary generally, you know, the flashes of brilliance, but as
a whole, you know, the Wisconsin game, the Iowa game
far from his best. Is Dante Moore now ready for
the big time? And of course you know he he
fell short against Indiana as well. Is he now going
to be able to put it together? So this is
a quarterback game, uh, you know, and USC will need
McKay lemon to to deliver another master class. But can
he do it on the road? You know, at Notre Dame,
at Nebraska, mkaye Lemmon was small, he got dominated. He
was not the dominator. He got dominated. So can makay
Lemon deliver an elite road game?
Speaker 1: Uh?
Speaker 3: For USC to help out jayde Miaba, that's going to
be one of the plot points there. Oregon's secondary, Uh
you know, statistically the analytics say Oregon's very good. But
again that's why I go back to pass efficiency defense, uh,
overall defensive rankings. You know, I'm just I'm not as
willing to trust that metric as I might have been
or would have been a few years ago. So us
he's passing attack against the Oregon secondary, that takes center stage.
And then US he's young defense and uh, you know,
for this is another plot point related to USC. USC's
linebackers were better last year under Matt Entz, who is
now you know, the head coach at Presno State. USC's
linebackers were better last year under matt Ens than they
have been this year under new linebacker coach Rob Ryan,
longtime NFL veteran. This is a gain, This is a
proving ground game for Rob Ryan. If USC's linebackers get crushed,
USC might need to make a change at the linebacker
coaching position going into next year like they're for all
indications point too rob Ryan being the weak link on
this defensive staff. You know, USC secondary did not have
Kamaria Ramsey against Iowa. I already mentioned that USC also
was lacking Bishop Fitzgerald, probably the second best player behind
Ramsey in this secondary. But USC secondary coach Doug Belk
had the backups ready to play and play well. So
like when I look at US's defensive staff, I'm thinking
Rob Ryan is the weak link. So if I'm Oregon
and I'm offensive coordinator Will Stein, I'm trying to stress
out and target USC's linebackers as much as I can,
you know, balancing running pass, manipulating the field, stretching them
out horizontally and then vertically. Whatever I can do to
try to disguise confuse the USC linebackers. That should be
part of Oregon's offensive game plan. So my thought on
this is, you know, USC on the road under Lincoln
Riley has just been you know, goose eggs. USC has
just been so consistently sub par on the road. It's
really hard to trust USC. And Vegas certainly isn't trusting
USC with Oregon being an early nine and a half
point favorite, and I've seen that line move up to
ten point five. Can't really debate that line. I think
that line is pretty good, pretty accurate. You know this,
This is where you know if and if Oregon is
a playoff team, if Oregon is a playoff caliber team,
you know, Duck fans should not be worried about, oh
will we get in if we lose to USC, because
you shouldn't be losing the USC. You should be winning
this game. You should then take care of Washington to
go eleven and one. I don't want to hear well, yeah,
I don't want to hear any arguments from Oregon fans,
you know, about being left out of the playoff if
they go ten and two because USC at home, you're
supposed to win that game period, end of sentence. So
like it shouldn't even be a conversation, it shouldn't even
be a scenario. Just take care of your business, Oregon,
as I think you will, by the way, So like
I'm not distrusting Oregon, I'm just saying, like there shouldn't
even be a playoff debate. Go out, win this game
handily against USC, take care of business. That's it. You're
in the playoff. No one's gonna argue that if Oregon
beats USC, so Oregon holds the cards, Oregon holds the
upper hand, but us he's gonna hope that Jade and
Mayava can really outplay Dante Moore by a significant margin.
The Trojans have what I would call a puncher's chance,
but not an especially strong one, like i'd say Oregon
with like a seventy five percent chance to win, so
not you know, not ninety ten, not sixty forty, pretty
much in the middle of those two, those two sides
of the spectrum. But it's gonna be fascinating. I will say,
it's an afternoon game, not a night game, so maybe
that's a small added edge for USC not even play
at night. But ultimately it comes down to you can
USC play a complete game on the road. Skepticism is
the appropriate position. That's what's warranted in that game. So
USC Oregon BUYU Cincinnati two games that are gonna be
absolutely enormous in Week thirteen of the college football season.
Can't wait. So that's this week Forget Off My pileline.
We're part of the College grid aeron Coast to Coast
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All right here at the College Great and Coast to
Coast podcast Network. This is Matt Zemic. Thanks for listening
to another episode of Get Off My Pylon. We'll see
you and talk to you next week.