1 00:00:01,840 --> 00:00:05,440 Speaker 1: Check it out. College football on the West Coast. This 2 00:00:05,519 --> 00:00:08,039 is Get Off My Pylon, a look at the PAC 3 00:00:08,160 --> 00:00:11,839 twelve and more, part of the College Gridiron Coast to 4 00:00:11,880 --> 00:00:15,679 Coast podcast network. Here's your host, that Zemon. 5 00:00:16,760 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: Welcome to the latest edition of Get Off My Pilon 6 00:00:19,039 --> 00:00:22,000 college football podcast. This is your host, Matt Zemmit Get 7 00:00:22,039 --> 00:00:24,359 Off My Pilon as part of the College Gridiron Coast 8 00:00:24,359 --> 00:00:28,160 to Coast podcast network. Go to Twitter at Gridiron Coast 9 00:00:28,600 --> 00:00:31,519 to get all your favorite Gridiron College Gridiron Coast to 10 00:00:31,519 --> 00:00:35,479 Coast podcast shows. Pig Skin and Burnt Dens, Yards and 11 00:00:35,520 --> 00:00:40,479 Stripes on the service Academies, Jason Powers Florida Football Insiders, 12 00:00:40,759 --> 00:00:46,640 the all sports discussion podcast covering the ACC. Noah Dury's 13 00:00:46,679 --> 00:00:50,719 Big Ten Paradigm, focusing on the non Western teams in 14 00:00:50,719 --> 00:00:52,560 the Big Ten, and you know, the whole conference, but 15 00:00:52,679 --> 00:00:55,000 especially those outside the West Coast. That's what we do 16 00:00:55,079 --> 00:00:56,320 here at Get Off My Pilon. 17 00:00:57,399 --> 00:01:00,600 Speaker 3: All the college gridroon Coast Coast shows can be found 18 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:05,000 on Apple, Spreaker, Spotify, the other places where you listen 19 00:01:05,280 --> 00:01:07,519 to your podcast. So Get Off My Pylon. We cover 20 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:11,680 western college football in the United States. The roundup's not 21 00:01:11,719 --> 00:01:13,840 going to be too long. They're going to be a 22 00:01:13,879 --> 00:01:16,599 little bit more digging a little bit more into the 23 00:01:16,680 --> 00:01:20,239 previews for the two really big games coming up in 24 00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:22,640 week thirteen. We'll get to those in just a moment. 25 00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:25,680 So the roundup's going to be short because let's just 26 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:28,640 tick things off here one by one. On the list, 27 00:01:28,879 --> 00:01:33,959 Callen Stanford didn't play. They play what's called big game. 28 00:01:34,200 --> 00:01:37,239 You know, there's the big game. There is the game, 29 00:01:38,439 --> 00:01:41,879 but cal Stanford is big game. No, the it's just 30 00:01:42,079 --> 00:01:45,920 big game for the acts in the Bay area. Stanford 31 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:48,799 hosts this coming weekend, so both teams got a break. 32 00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:52,799 They have two weeks to prepare for each other, so 33 00:01:52,879 --> 00:01:56,519 they didn't play this week. The two pack. Washington State 34 00:01:56,560 --> 00:02:01,319 over Louisiana Tech, easy win for the Cougars. Oregon State 35 00:02:01,359 --> 00:02:04,680 gets flattened by Tulsa. The Beavers continue to struggle, So 36 00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:08,840 not a whole lot there. Mountain West San Diego State 37 00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:13,080 smothers Boise State seventeen to seven. It's just been remarkable 38 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:18,599 how Boise State's offense has cratered nothing at quarterback this season. 39 00:02:18,919 --> 00:02:22,120 It's been a disaster. It has been a real mess 40 00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:27,360 for second year coach Spencer Danielson. Priority number one by 41 00:02:27,520 --> 00:02:30,840 far for Boise State this coming off season, get a 42 00:02:30,879 --> 00:02:34,240 big time quarterback in the transfer portal that is the 43 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:37,800 Broncos road to renewed relevance. They just stepped in a 44 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:41,319 pothole this year. They miss Ashton genty kind of like 45 00:02:41,439 --> 00:02:46,319 Colorado without Travis Hunter and also shadur Both those Western 46 00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:50,199 programs just stepped in a ditch this season after losing 47 00:02:50,479 --> 00:02:54,080 really really awesome high end players who are at the 48 00:02:54,120 --> 00:02:57,199 top of the Heisman leader board last season, they did 49 00:02:57,240 --> 00:03:02,479 not find replacements. Very safe to say so, San Diego 50 00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:05,439 State in the Mountain West over Boise State, but of 51 00:03:05,439 --> 00:03:10,080 course the Mountain West not a factor in the playoff picture. 52 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:14,879 Like James Madison is now the one non American conference team, 53 00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:19,879 the Dukes under Bob Chesney. And by the way, Bob 54 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:23,879 Chesney like he's he's a hot item in the coaching 55 00:03:23,919 --> 00:03:29,000 carousel and Ucla. Ucla couldn't get Kurt Signetti, he's over 56 00:03:29,039 --> 00:03:31,639 in Indiana, like UCLA was never gonna get Kurt Signetti. 57 00:03:32,080 --> 00:03:35,199 But maybe UCLA can get the next James Madison coach 58 00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:40,439 as you know, a return to renewed prominence in the 59 00:03:40,439 --> 00:03:42,960 Big Ten. That might be the name at the top 60 00:03:43,000 --> 00:03:46,319 of UCLA's leader board. And by the way, we record 61 00:03:46,360 --> 00:03:50,039 this with James Franklin just having been hired at Virginia Tech. 62 00:03:50,439 --> 00:03:53,639 So one domino falls in the coaching carousel. So the 63 00:03:53,719 --> 00:03:57,360 market's different for UCLA, markets different for Arkansas. Kind of 64 00:03:57,400 --> 00:04:01,960 heard some rumors speculation about Arkansas and maybe what about Auburn. 65 00:04:02,039 --> 00:04:04,919 You know, James Franklin making a relocation to the SEC. 66 00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:07,319 Well he's not going to the SEC, He's going to 67 00:04:07,360 --> 00:04:12,719 the ACC. And so UCLA continues its search for a coach. 68 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:16,079 Bob Chesney of James Madison might be the guy. So 69 00:04:16,759 --> 00:04:19,680 the Mountain West just irrelevant. Been a horrible year, and 70 00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:21,839 of course next year you're gonna have realignment. You're going 71 00:04:21,879 --> 00:04:25,879 to have an actual PAC twelve in a reconstituted form. 72 00:04:26,000 --> 00:04:28,839 Essentially it'll be a Pack eight. The PAC twelve brand 73 00:04:29,279 --> 00:04:32,720 still exists. Older fans will know there was a Pack 74 00:04:32,759 --> 00:04:37,920 eight in the mid nineteen seventies until Arizona and Arizona 75 00:04:37,959 --> 00:04:41,720 State joined in nineteen seventy eight to form the PAC ten, 76 00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:47,040 which lasted just over thirty years, you know, through twenty ten. 77 00:04:47,920 --> 00:04:50,560 And then of course in twenty eleven, Colorad and Utah 78 00:04:50,639 --> 00:04:53,759 joined to form the PAC twelve. So just a rocky 79 00:04:53,839 --> 00:04:56,839 time of it for the Mountain West in its final 80 00:04:56,920 --> 00:05:01,399 season of the familiar iteration. And it's all gonna be 81 00:05:01,439 --> 00:05:06,279 redesigned next season with an actual PAC twelve that's not 82 00:05:06,439 --> 00:05:09,040 just Washington State and Oregon State, but they'll have the 83 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:13,680 minimum eight football schools, Gonzaga going to the PAC twelve 84 00:05:13,759 --> 00:05:17,759 for basketball. So the Mountain West as we have known 85 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:20,959 it going out not with a bang, but with a whimper. 86 00:05:22,480 --> 00:05:25,839 So onto the Big twelfth part of our roundup, the 87 00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:31,680 big story. Arizona goes to Cincinnati and beats the Bearcats 88 00:05:31,680 --> 00:05:34,720 and Brent Brennan a lot of Arizona fans were downing 89 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:36,920 him in the offseason, and it was just curious how 90 00:05:37,720 --> 00:05:41,199 just it seemed like a very uneasy vibe into soon 91 00:05:41,959 --> 00:05:45,240 after one year, you know, and there was a lot 92 00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:48,560 to clean up, and you know, Jedfish didn't take everybody 93 00:05:48,600 --> 00:05:51,439 to Seattle when he went to Washington to coach the Huskies, 94 00:05:51,680 --> 00:05:54,560 but he did take some players, and so that just 95 00:05:54,600 --> 00:05:57,759 didn't seem as though though that was an instant fix. 96 00:05:58,399 --> 00:06:01,120 But Brent Brennan definitely struggle in year one. But like 97 00:06:01,439 --> 00:06:05,879 Arizona fans were really freaked out. And as we see 98 00:06:05,959 --> 00:06:09,439 Arizona continue to win games on the road in the 99 00:06:09,439 --> 00:06:12,800 Big Twelve, Brent Brennan, who I thought was a good hire, 100 00:06:13,879 --> 00:06:19,480 establishing himself. He's solidifying his position at Arizona. The win 101 00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:23,720 over Cincinnati beyond, you know, establishing Arizona as a program 102 00:06:23,759 --> 00:06:27,000 that seems to be back in the mix and regaining relevance. 103 00:06:27,040 --> 00:06:29,800 And we'll see what Brent Brennan does in twenty six 104 00:06:30,360 --> 00:06:33,360 with that program. But the big national story is that 105 00:06:33,560 --> 00:06:36,800 is now a huge blow to Cincinnati as it tries 106 00:06:36,839 --> 00:06:41,279 to make the Big Twelve championship game, and it lets 107 00:06:41,680 --> 00:06:45,959 Utah and Arizona State back in play like they really 108 00:06:45,959 --> 00:06:49,399 needed that to happen. Utah on ASU, so they're still 109 00:06:49,399 --> 00:06:52,319 in the mix, not completely out of it. And it 110 00:06:52,399 --> 00:06:55,759 sets up a BYU Cincinnati game that we'll talk about 111 00:06:55,800 --> 00:06:59,279 just a moment in our Big Game previews for the 112 00:06:59,319 --> 00:07:03,439 next week. So that's the Big Twelve. BYU takes care 113 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:05,959 of TCU. Kind of weird. BYU was just a two 114 00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:09,079 and a half point favorite at home at night. BYU's 115 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:12,040 only loss was at Texas Tech, which many would agree 116 00:07:12,079 --> 00:07:14,959 is the best team in the Big Twelve on paper. 117 00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:17,360 In terms of talent, you know, all the nil investments 118 00:07:17,399 --> 00:07:21,800 made by the Red Raiders, and TCU is a mediocre 119 00:07:21,839 --> 00:07:24,399 team like TCU who lost at home to Iowa State. 120 00:07:26,279 --> 00:07:29,000 The horn Frogs have blown other leads this season, have 121 00:07:29,120 --> 00:07:32,240 not been very impressive. You know, that twenty twenty two 122 00:07:32,319 --> 00:07:35,519 run to the National Championship Game becomes even more of 123 00:07:35,560 --> 00:07:38,560 an outlier, even more of a one hit wonder as 124 00:07:38,600 --> 00:07:40,720 we go along. B YU was just a two and 125 00:07:40,759 --> 00:07:44,319 a half point favorite at home at night versus TCU. 126 00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:47,839 Hope you took the Cougars minus to two and a half. 127 00:07:48,079 --> 00:07:49,720 And on the money line, if you're in a place 128 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:55,519 where sports betting is allowed, you cashed very, very very 129 00:07:55,560 --> 00:08:00,959 easily if you did so. BYU took care of business. 130 00:08:01,000 --> 00:08:03,160 Cincinnati did not. That's going to set up that BYU 131 00:08:03,199 --> 00:08:05,720 Cincinnati game we're going to talk about in just a 132 00:08:05,720 --> 00:08:08,399 little bit. And then in the PAC twelve, excuse me, 133 00:08:08,439 --> 00:08:10,839 the PAC twelve, I'm thinking of the PAC twelve and 134 00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:14,399 three four years ago. In terms of the Western teams 135 00:08:14,399 --> 00:08:16,079 in the Big Ten, you know, not a whole lot 136 00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:20,319 to talk about. UCLA was off Washington, Clobard, Purdue, you know, 137 00:08:20,399 --> 00:08:23,639 as just zero surprises in a game that did not 138 00:08:23,759 --> 00:08:25,839 mean a whole lot for Washington. Now that the Huskies 139 00:08:25,839 --> 00:08:29,759 are out of the College Football Playoff, Oregon crushes Minnesota 140 00:08:29,800 --> 00:08:33,200 on Friday night as expected. Just not a lot there. 141 00:08:33,639 --> 00:08:35,600 You know, with Ucla, we've already talked about the head 142 00:08:35,639 --> 00:08:41,080 coaching search. The Bruins get obliterated by Ohio State. I 143 00:08:41,159 --> 00:08:43,440 might have just inadvertently said the Bruins took the week 144 00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:45,320 off or they were off. Yeah, they might as well 145 00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:49,039 have been, you know, because they didn't have Nico Iomliyava, 146 00:08:49,480 --> 00:08:53,080 So of course they were going to get absolutely hammered 147 00:08:53,720 --> 00:08:56,919 by Ohio State. I'm actually amazed Ucla scored ten points. 148 00:08:57,039 --> 00:08:58,960 I thought Ucla was going to get shut out in 149 00:08:59,000 --> 00:09:02,919 that game with that Nico, So you could even say 150 00:09:02,960 --> 00:09:08,000 that the Bruins overachieved slightly, but we knew that was 151 00:09:08,039 --> 00:09:11,600 a non event. I hope v NBC had fun televising 152 00:09:11,639 --> 00:09:15,120 that game in prime time, like anyone outside the state 153 00:09:15,120 --> 00:09:18,480 of Ohio probably not watching it. I had to watch 154 00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:21,000 it because I cover Ucla, But like, why would you 155 00:09:21,080 --> 00:09:24,080 watch that on your own, you know, on your own 156 00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:27,279 free will. There was Texas, Georgia, there was Florida, Ole, 157 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:30,960 miss some really interesting games. In that window. Uclo House 158 00:09:30,960 --> 00:09:33,879 state not one of them. So the only really really 159 00:09:33,919 --> 00:09:41,039 interesting game to go over from Week twelve in the 160 00:09:41,279 --> 00:09:44,399 Big Ten among the Western teams was USC Iowa. Now 161 00:09:44,519 --> 00:09:49,120 this this was a really interesting one. USC down fourteen 162 00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:52,679 to nothing, down twenty one seven, down twenty one ten 163 00:09:52,720 --> 00:09:56,320 at the half, and you're thinking, yep, typical soft Lincoln 164 00:09:56,399 --> 00:09:59,799 Riley USC team. I was thinking it. I covered that game, 165 00:09:59,840 --> 00:10:03,080 of course, since I covered USC as well as UCLA. 166 00:10:03,639 --> 00:10:06,320 I mean, Iowa punched USC in the mouth and Iowa 167 00:10:06,399 --> 00:10:10,480 threw the ball with success as well, Like USC allowed 168 00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:14,039 Iowa to throw the ball well in the rain, and 169 00:10:14,240 --> 00:10:16,639 that was the other part. In the rain in the coliseum. 170 00:10:17,039 --> 00:10:21,639 How many times is it rainy in the Los Angeles Coliseum. 171 00:10:23,879 --> 00:10:26,440 It doesn't happen very often. Yet Iowa just you know, 172 00:10:26,519 --> 00:10:32,200 looked very comfortable in those conditions. And USC has had 173 00:10:32,200 --> 00:10:37,120 a pattern to start very slowly first twenty minutes of games. 174 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:40,279 This has been happening for weeks, Like the defense was 175 00:10:40,399 --> 00:10:44,000 poor in the first twenty minutes against Northwestern, poor in 176 00:10:44,039 --> 00:10:47,120 the first twenty minutes against Nebraska. So this has been 177 00:10:47,159 --> 00:10:50,360 going on a lot with us C. It's not in 178 00:10:50,399 --> 00:10:53,000 this this Iowa game was not an operation in that regard. 179 00:10:53,039 --> 00:10:56,240 It was part of a trend. So you're thinking, Okay, 180 00:10:56,480 --> 00:11:01,000 you know Iowa with its rugged defense, Kirk Farren, you know, 181 00:11:02,240 --> 00:11:05,720 statistically good pass defense. Although like this is something to 182 00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:10,879 get into with the Big Ten that you know, there 183 00:11:10,919 --> 00:11:13,000 aren't a lot of great quarterbacks in the Big Ten 184 00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:17,000 and for that matter, in college football. So like national 185 00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:20,639 ranking in terms of past defense, you know, I don't 186 00:11:20,639 --> 00:11:22,879 know how much meaning we should assign to that. I 187 00:11:22,919 --> 00:11:28,799 don't know how much value one should have for certain 188 00:11:28,879 --> 00:11:33,399 kinds of defensive rankings, defensive metrics, including against the past. 189 00:11:33,879 --> 00:11:38,559 Here's something now, I have a friend. He's not a 190 00:11:38,679 --> 00:11:41,360 regular college football rider. He used to be a colleague 191 00:11:41,399 --> 00:11:44,480 of mind at Trojan's Wire. But his name is Josh Webb, 192 00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:49,200 and he has helped me with some research. I asked him, 193 00:11:49,919 --> 00:11:51,480 and by the way, I paid him like I pay 194 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:56,120 my researchers. I asked him to do something very specific. 195 00:11:57,320 --> 00:12:01,240 I asked, Josh, hey, can you go through Power four 196 00:12:01,840 --> 00:12:03,919 or you know, when the Pac twelve still existed in 197 00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:10,639 its previous commonly known form with USC, Oregon, Washington, and UCLA. 198 00:12:11,759 --> 00:12:15,000 Give me all the Power four or Power five versus 199 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:18,960 Power four Power five games, So not power four versus 200 00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:22,840 the Group of five or fcs, just power four versus 201 00:12:22,919 --> 00:12:26,159 Power four, Power five versus Power five when the PAC 202 00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:29,639 twelve still existed. Give me all the games in which 203 00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:35,679 both teams both teams scored at least thirty, thirty five, forty, 204 00:12:36,039 --> 00:12:39,480 or forty five points from twenty twenty two through twenty 205 00:12:39,679 --> 00:12:42,080 twenty five. And I know we're not fully done with 206 00:12:42,080 --> 00:12:45,440 twenty twenty five, but you know, I wanted it through 207 00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:51,399 this weekend. So there are some numbers to share, all right, 208 00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:56,440 power four slash five versus Power four slash five, like, 209 00:12:56,720 --> 00:12:59,559 you know, not counting the American Conference, not counting the 210 00:12:59,559 --> 00:13:04,519 Mountains maction, you know, because those are you know, it's 211 00:13:04,559 --> 00:13:07,240 the it's the minor leagues of college football. We can 212 00:13:07,279 --> 00:13:10,720 all generally agree, maybe not the American but certainly like 213 00:13:10,759 --> 00:13:14,519 the MAC that's you know, lower tier football. So I didn't. 214 00:13:14,559 --> 00:13:18,200 I didn't. I wanted this research project to be such that, 215 00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:21,200 you know, people couldn't say, oh, well, the lower conferences 216 00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:23,919 are inflating the totals here. I just wanted to focus 217 00:13:23,960 --> 00:13:27,519 on the power fives, Power fours, the big boys. So 218 00:13:27,600 --> 00:13:32,279 here are the numbers. Games with power Power Conference games 219 00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:36,360 with both teams scoring at least thirty points in the 220 00:13:36,440 --> 00:13:39,039 same game, so, in other words, a shootout. Like I'm 221 00:13:39,039 --> 00:13:42,360 trying to I'm trying to track the number of shootouts 222 00:13:42,600 --> 00:13:48,159 among Power conference teams power conference games only in recent years. 223 00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:51,480 So twenty twenty two there were sixty four of those 224 00:13:51,519 --> 00:13:54,320 games at the Power four level, so not even counting 225 00:13:54,320 --> 00:13:58,039 group of five, and not even counting Power Conference versus 226 00:13:58,039 --> 00:14:02,720 Group of five, just power conferences, sixty four in twenty 227 00:14:02,759 --> 00:14:07,159 twenty two, fifty six in twenty twenty three, fifty four 228 00:14:07,879 --> 00:14:12,720 in twenty twenty four, and through Week twelve of twenty 229 00:14:12,759 --> 00:14:17,679 twenty five only thirty six. And of those thirty six, 230 00:14:18,159 --> 00:14:21,879 there have been only six games six games at the 231 00:14:21,879 --> 00:14:26,559 Power four level this season in which both teams have 232 00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:33,120 scored at least forty in twenty twenty two, fourteen, in 233 00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:38,679 twenty twenty three, thirteen. So do you see where I'm 234 00:14:38,679 --> 00:14:41,320 getting with this? Like I had a hunch, this is 235 00:14:41,360 --> 00:14:44,080 why I asked my friend Josh Webb to do this 236 00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:47,279 research project. It was my hunch, and the hunch was 237 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:51,000 proven right, although maybe not by not in a dramatic way, 238 00:14:51,039 --> 00:14:55,240 Like we're not talking about you know, several dozens of 239 00:14:55,360 --> 00:14:59,279 games difference, but still it's a noticeable difference. Sixty four 240 00:15:00,039 --> 00:15:02,240 games with at least with both teams scoring at least 241 00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:05,440 thirty in twenty twenty two and we are at thirty 242 00:15:05,440 --> 00:15:11,600 six through week twelve in twenty twenty five. That's that's 243 00:15:11,639 --> 00:15:14,600 a notable drop off. Now sixty you know, sixty four 244 00:15:14,639 --> 00:15:17,480 to fifty six and then fifty four last year not 245 00:15:17,519 --> 00:15:20,399 so much. But yeah, this year, this is what I'm 246 00:15:20,399 --> 00:15:24,799 getting at. This year, there have been fewer shootouts in 247 00:15:24,840 --> 00:15:28,559 college football. There have been It's like you just do 248 00:15:28,679 --> 00:15:32,399 not see forty five forty two games anymore. And it's 249 00:15:32,559 --> 00:15:36,960 just kind of notable that the Pac twelve died and 250 00:15:37,200 --> 00:15:40,879 the shootouts are going down. I don't think that's an accident. 251 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:45,320 And Oklahoma and Texas and the SEC instead of the 252 00:15:45,360 --> 00:15:50,360 Big twelve, like, those events seem to have a real 253 00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:56,080 connection to the decrease in the number of true shootouts 254 00:15:56,080 --> 00:15:58,320 defined by games in which at least both teams are 255 00:15:58,360 --> 00:16:01,200 scoring at least thirty a game in the same game. 256 00:16:02,039 --> 00:16:04,360 That that is notable. And so it leads me to 257 00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:07,720 back to what I was saying about Iowa's pass defense. Okay, 258 00:16:07,799 --> 00:16:10,600 Iowa has a high higher rank pass defense. But this 259 00:16:10,720 --> 00:16:13,720 is a sport which and like this is like this 260 00:16:13,799 --> 00:16:19,080 is really worth some investigation here, right, Fewer shootouts, fewer 261 00:16:19,120 --> 00:16:24,559 bonkers games with massive point totals. You know, it occurs 262 00:16:24,600 --> 00:16:27,600 to me that you know, running clock on first downs, Okay, 263 00:16:28,159 --> 00:16:29,679 you know that's going to play a role in this. 264 00:16:29,799 --> 00:16:34,080 So you're having fewer plays, shorter games. So yeah, yards 265 00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:36,559 per play, that would have something to do with it, 266 00:16:37,039 --> 00:16:39,200 number of plays per game, I get it. But but 267 00:16:39,360 --> 00:16:45,320 still is that the whole story? What would really be 268 00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:49,480 interesting to get a feel for that. And of course, 269 00:16:49,559 --> 00:16:56,559 you know, incomplete passes still stop the clock. Touchdowns stop 270 00:16:56,639 --> 00:16:59,879 the clock. You know, if you pass the ball instead 271 00:16:59,879 --> 00:17:02,039 of running the ball, you're going to have short You're 272 00:17:02,039 --> 00:17:04,680 still going to have shorter drives. So not everything is 273 00:17:05,039 --> 00:17:08,400 completely different, but obviously, you know, the running clock rules 274 00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:13,720 have played a role indisputably. Nevertheless, you know, when we 275 00:17:13,759 --> 00:17:21,039 talk about what we expect from teams in games, the 276 00:17:21,119 --> 00:17:25,400 offenses just do not seem as prolific as they used 277 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:28,079 to be, and the numbers, at least to a certain extent, 278 00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:32,960 back that up. So I'm I'm just not taking that 279 00:17:33,119 --> 00:17:41,559 much stock in overall pass defense in pass efficiency ratings. 280 00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:45,839 It's a different sport. This sport is very different from 281 00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:49,240 how it was in twenty twenty two. You know, COVID 282 00:17:49,559 --> 00:17:53,160 the twenty twenty season and then twenty twenty one as well, 283 00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:56,799 those were just aberrational years because COVID messed everything up. 284 00:17:57,160 --> 00:18:00,599 There was so much flux in the sport and ways 285 00:18:00,599 --> 00:18:03,880 that you know don't really translate to a quote unquote 286 00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:08,599 natural or normal season. But let's just say twenty twenty 287 00:18:08,599 --> 00:18:11,839 two when the sport looked and felt more normal, we 288 00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:14,920 kind of got back into a quote unquote regular kind 289 00:18:14,920 --> 00:18:19,359 of season after those two COVID years. This speels like 290 00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:22,119 a different sport compared to twenty twenty two. We're not 291 00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:25,559 talking about the offenses dominating, not as much as we 292 00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:29,599 used to. It just it just was not as wide 293 00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:34,559 open a sport. Recall that, you know, in the twenty 294 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:37,480 twenty two playoff semi finals, we had Ohio State and 295 00:18:37,519 --> 00:18:40,799 Georgia playing a shootout and like those guys had dudes 296 00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:45,359 on defense. Georgia certainly did, uh, But you saw, you 297 00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:47,880 know CJ. Stroud play an elite game for Ohio State 298 00:18:47,920 --> 00:18:51,519 in that game that that Peach Bowl semifinal game, like 299 00:18:51,599 --> 00:18:55,160 the ceiling for quarterbacks was higher, and and that all 300 00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:58,079 that that gets into something else I'm gonna talk about 301 00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:00,640 in a little bit, So let me just wrap up 302 00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:03,680 this USC Iowa game though, But like I wanted to 303 00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:07,440 get on that point about Iowa's pass defense, Like, yes, 304 00:19:07,519 --> 00:19:11,200 it's impressive that Jade and Mayava and McKayle Lemon, and 305 00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:14,480 by the way, mikayle Lemon for USC best game by 306 00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:16,920 our wide receiver in college football all season. I dare 307 00:19:16,960 --> 00:19:19,279 you to find any game better than that. Then that's 308 00:19:19,279 --> 00:19:22,240 not me wearing USC home or glasses either. Like this 309 00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:26,839 dude was making du solet catches, Like this was the 310 00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:30,920 flying circus for McKayle Lemon, and he got locked down 311 00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:34,079 by More Dame and also Nebraska, so like I'm not 312 00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:37,519 denying that he had two mediocre games this season, but 313 00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:39,680 like this was the best of McKayle Lemon and it 314 00:19:39,759 --> 00:19:43,759 was absolutely spectacular, and Mayava was you know, this is 315 00:19:43,799 --> 00:19:46,839 where Jade Miyava gets credit. He was trusting his guy 316 00:19:46,880 --> 00:19:48,680 to make a play. But it's not as though he 317 00:19:48,799 --> 00:19:51,359 was making the perfect throw. It was McKayle Lemon making 318 00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:56,839 these acrobatic catches. To fuel USC's comeback. So that's obviously 319 00:19:56,920 --> 00:19:59,400 one part of the story for USC. The other part is, 320 00:19:59,599 --> 00:20:02,079 and this was the surprise shutting out Iowa in the 321 00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:05,319 second half, and Danton Lynn us He's defensive coordinator, he's 322 00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:08,079 had a tough year. USC's defense has not been as 323 00:20:08,079 --> 00:20:12,400 good this year as it was last year. And Danton 324 00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:15,160 Lynn has spoken recently about you know, having young guys 325 00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:18,079 and how it's hard to bring them along and you know, 326 00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:21,240 like their learning curve is slow, like you can't expect 327 00:20:21,279 --> 00:20:23,680 them to all get it right away. He said that's 328 00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:26,799 been part of the reason for US he struggles. But 329 00:20:27,519 --> 00:20:31,119 Danton Lynn is getting things done at halftime in recent 330 00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:36,519 weeks against Nebraska dominant second half, against Northwestern dominant second half, 331 00:20:36,799 --> 00:20:40,559 and now against Iowa dominant second half. So there is 332 00:20:40,599 --> 00:20:43,640 a sense that us he is beginning to figure things out. 333 00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:47,200 You're beginning to see improvement from the from the underclassmen 334 00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:52,400 on the roster, and so really, this was by far 335 00:20:53,279 --> 00:20:56,319 the most impressive win that Lincoln Riley and his USC 336 00:20:56,359 --> 00:21:00,680 program have had since twenty twenty two. There was nothing 337 00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:03,640 in twenty twenty three or twenty four that rose to 338 00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:07,279 this level like USC really showed some toughness and unlike 339 00:21:07,319 --> 00:21:10,359 the Nebraska game. You know, the Nebraska game was a 340 00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:13,680 situation in which Dylan Roola gets hurt midway through and 341 00:21:13,759 --> 00:21:18,079 Nebraska with Rayola, jumped out to an early lead, looked 342 00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:23,160 really comfortable and then TJ Latif the backup he could 343 00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:25,799 not throw the ball. He could not not on that night. Now, 344 00:21:25,799 --> 00:21:29,119 he did get better against UCLA later this season, but 345 00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:34,599 that was UCLA, right, not the same comparison. So when 346 00:21:34,599 --> 00:21:36,880 Nebraska couldn't throw the ball in the second half, the 347 00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:40,880 Huskers were handcuffed. USC did well to win that game. 348 00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:43,559 That's why the Trojans are still alive in the playoff rays. 349 00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:47,599 It mattered, but kind of an asterisk there because Dylan 350 00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:51,599 Roola got hurt. If Dylanrola doesn't get hurt, I'm thinking 351 00:21:51,799 --> 00:21:56,440 Nebraska probably wins that game. No guarantees, but Huskers probably 352 00:21:56,440 --> 00:21:59,440 would have had the advantage down the stretch. So you 353 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:02,680 can't say that about this Iowa game. This Iowa game, 354 00:22:03,599 --> 00:22:07,799 Iowa didn't have any injuries and USC actually was shorthanded. 355 00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:14,200 No Kamari Ramsey, the excellent safety, possibly USC's best defensive player. 356 00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:17,000 He was out and just to make another comparison. Caamari 357 00:22:17,079 --> 00:22:20,599 Ramsey did not play for USC in its loss at Illinois. 358 00:22:21,079 --> 00:22:23,640 Urlier this season, he came down with food poisoning. So 359 00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:28,599 USC without Ramsey against Illinois terrible. USC without Ramsey against 360 00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:31,359 Iowa a lot better. So that tells you that other 361 00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:35,279 guys are stepping up, other guys are improving. You're getting 362 00:22:35,319 --> 00:22:38,759 more from the full depth chart for danton lyn'z defense 363 00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:43,920 at USC. So obviously some evolution and growth occurring for USC. 364 00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:47,079 And the toughness that the Trojan showed nineteen straight points 365 00:22:47,519 --> 00:22:50,119 after being down twenty one to seven to beat a 366 00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:52,240 good Iowa team, not a great one, but a good 367 00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:55,720 one like Iowa took Oregon to the wire in Kinnick 368 00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:59,920 in Iowa City the previous week. So you know, USC 369 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:02,319 put in some work. And that's why Lincoln Riley was 370 00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:05,359 really fired up, like he knows he's not getting it 371 00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:08,839 done at USC. He knows, he knows he's been falling short. 372 00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:11,599 That's why he was so emotive because there was a 373 00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:14,000 sense that, ah, this is what I've been waiting for. 374 00:23:14,079 --> 00:23:16,759 I've been waiting to see this kind of toughness from 375 00:23:16,759 --> 00:23:20,039 my guys. I'm waiting to see my team really respond 376 00:23:20,559 --> 00:23:24,359 to adversity. Lincoln Riley was really fired up. He usually 377 00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:26,920 doesn't get very fired up, but he was after this 378 00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:30,640 game rightly. So I've been a critic of his well, 379 00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:33,000 you know, I'm not going to sidestep that, been very 380 00:23:33,079 --> 00:23:37,440 critical of his stewardship of the USC program Saturday. Okay, 381 00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:41,640 this was progress, This was a real step forward. But 382 00:23:41,759 --> 00:23:44,200 of course it's not the end of the story. So 383 00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:46,759 that's USC Iowa. And now we just turned to these 384 00:23:46,759 --> 00:23:52,599 two really big games BYU Cincinnati for the Big twelve, 385 00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:56,519 you know, and so Utah and Arizona State they are 386 00:23:56,559 --> 00:23:59,559 praying for Cincinnati to win. Now that Cincinnati had that 387 00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:04,119 second loss to Arizona like that opens the door. It 388 00:24:04,279 --> 00:24:07,799 opens the path for Utah and Arizona States to get 389 00:24:07,839 --> 00:24:10,880 back into this thing and face Texas Tech in the 390 00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:16,759 Big twelve championship game. So with Cincinnati losing again, now 391 00:24:16,799 --> 00:24:20,559 if Cincinnati can take care of BYU, you know, that 392 00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:24,880 opens up a multiple team tie into which Utah and 393 00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:28,519 Arizona State are going to have a chance at this thing. 394 00:24:29,079 --> 00:24:31,759 So so Utah in Salt Lake City and Tempe they're 395 00:24:31,759 --> 00:24:34,680 going to be praying for Cincinnati having just lost to 396 00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:38,880 Arizona to now drag BYU down into a muddle, into 397 00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:43,799 a cluttered group behind Texas Tech. That those are the 398 00:24:43,839 --> 00:24:50,920 stakes involved now for BYU Cincinnati. So BYU, you know, 399 00:24:51,039 --> 00:24:55,400 handled business against TCU got demolished at Texas Tech. And 400 00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:59,079 that was the game where you know, BYU finally paid 401 00:24:59,079 --> 00:25:02,200 the price for slow starts on the road. And BYU 402 00:25:02,319 --> 00:25:05,279 was down at least ten, sometimes fourteen, but at least 403 00:25:05,319 --> 00:25:09,200 ten in every instance on the road at Colorado, at 404 00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:12,400 Iowa State, at Arizona. Came back to win all three. 405 00:25:12,519 --> 00:25:15,960 But like you can't keep playing with fire, and so 406 00:25:16,039 --> 00:25:20,319 BYU gets burned against Texas Tech. Cincinnati's not as good 407 00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:24,920 as Texas Tech. But if you're BYU, like you need 408 00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:28,559 a decent first half, maybe not great, but like be 409 00:25:28,799 --> 00:25:33,799 tied at halftime, be at least even maybe down three. Okay, 410 00:25:33,839 --> 00:25:38,240 But if BYU fall fallows behind ten nothing, fourteen, nothing, 411 00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:41,960 I'm not thinking the Cougar's chances are very good. Like 412 00:25:42,039 --> 00:25:45,559 you just can't keep going down this road. Bear Bachmeier, 413 00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:48,480 the freshman, he's been sensational this season. He looked absolutely 414 00:25:48,519 --> 00:25:53,799 awesome against TCU. Cincinnati's defense looked terrible against Arizona. So 415 00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:57,359 like there is a window here for BYU to win. 416 00:25:57,440 --> 00:25:59,599 And by the way, if you're interested, BYU favored by 417 00:25:59,599 --> 00:26:03,240 two and an half in the early line. But BYU's 418 00:26:03,279 --> 00:26:06,880 offense has to show up the whole way. Can't just 419 00:26:07,079 --> 00:26:09,880 you know, snooze for the first twenty thirty minutes and 420 00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:12,599 then expect to rally in the second half. No, b 421 00:26:12,839 --> 00:26:17,160 YU needs to land some punches, land some haymakers early 422 00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:21,559 in this game, the way Arizona did. Wildcats got off 423 00:26:21,599 --> 00:26:25,240 to a great early start, early burst, and that settled 424 00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:28,720 them down. I think BYU needs to land that first 425 00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:33,599 punch and so at least it gets to halftime relatively even. 426 00:26:34,039 --> 00:26:36,880 And then BYU has been a great second half team 427 00:26:37,319 --> 00:26:42,839 the whole season, you know Texas Tech excluded. So BYU 428 00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:46,319 I think to win needs to score really big. Like 429 00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:49,319 I don't see BYU winning this game twenty four to 430 00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:52,279 twenty with its defense. No, BYU is gonna need to 431 00:26:52,279 --> 00:26:55,640 score in the thirties to win this game because Cincinnati's 432 00:26:55,680 --> 00:26:59,720 defense is not imposing at all. So bear Bachmeyer needs 433 00:26:59,759 --> 00:27:02,160 to put to put it together for sixty minutes at 434 00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:05,799 least like forty five or fifty. Can't wait until halftime 435 00:27:06,839 --> 00:27:11,400 to really pick things up. So BYU needs, if not 436 00:27:11,519 --> 00:27:13,920 a complete sixty minute game, at least a forty five 437 00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:20,119 minute game against Cincinnati. I think if Cincinnati's defense can 438 00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:23,200 just do reasonable damage control not give up the home 439 00:27:23,279 --> 00:27:27,640 run force field goals in the red zone, Cincinnati's offense 440 00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:32,279 certainly has more than enough to trouble BYU's defense. And 441 00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:34,720 of course, if Cincinnati can get that ten oh fourteen 442 00:27:34,759 --> 00:27:39,319 oh lead that other BYU opponents on the road have 443 00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:42,920 gained this season, you know, just the odds of the 444 00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:45,960 Cougars doing it one more time are just pretty remote. 445 00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:50,200 So this is part of what I love about college football. 446 00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:53,279 I think in college football, more than the NFL, what 447 00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:56,480 happens in the first quarter can really determine the whole 448 00:27:56,480 --> 00:27:59,759 flow of the game. NFL is more of you know, 449 00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:02,440 it's about what happens at the end. I mean, just 450 00:28:02,519 --> 00:28:05,559 as the Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears like it seems 451 00:28:05,599 --> 00:28:08,279 to not matter what happens in the first forty five 452 00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:11,799 minutes of a Bronco or Bear game, it goes down 453 00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:15,559 to the final minute and they win absolutely crazy the 454 00:28:15,599 --> 00:28:18,480 way some teams have been just winning games at the 455 00:28:18,559 --> 00:28:20,720 very end, or in the case of the Kansas City 456 00:28:20,759 --> 00:28:24,039 Chiefs losing at the very end. The NFL like has 457 00:28:24,079 --> 00:28:25,599 a way of just you know, it all comes down 458 00:28:25,599 --> 00:28:28,000 to the final few minutes, kind of like the NBA 459 00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:32,079 in many ways as well, like it's just kind of 460 00:28:32,279 --> 00:28:35,480 like Cardio for the first three quarters and then it's 461 00:28:35,519 --> 00:28:38,880 all about what happens in the fourth quarter. B YU 462 00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,640 Cincinnati doesn't feel like that kind of game, doesn't feel 463 00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:44,079 like a game that's just gonna where you can say, 464 00:28:44,119 --> 00:28:46,079 of course it's gonna go down to the end. No, 465 00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:49,599 I think the first quarter, first half are gonna be 466 00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:56,559 highly determinative of the outcome in Cincinnati. So that's gonna 467 00:28:56,559 --> 00:28:58,720 be a great one. It's a night game on Fox, 468 00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:01,480 one of the big show downs on Saturday. But before 469 00:29:01,559 --> 00:29:04,839 that night game, you have the mid afternoon game, the 470 00:29:04,839 --> 00:29:10,039 three thirty window on the CBS USC at Oregon, and 471 00:29:10,079 --> 00:29:14,599 it means everything because USC was able to get past Iowa. 472 00:29:14,599 --> 00:29:18,559 If USC had lost to Iowa, Trojans would be out 473 00:29:18,559 --> 00:29:21,519 of the playoff conversation. But now you have a game 474 00:29:21,559 --> 00:29:25,880 between two teams vying for the playoff, and I know 475 00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:29,759 this part of the national conversation is, you know it's 476 00:29:29,759 --> 00:29:33,319 the SEC gonna get five teams, maybe even six into 477 00:29:33,319 --> 00:29:38,079 the playoff, Like is if USC beats Oregon, are both 478 00:29:38,519 --> 00:29:42,960 teams gonna be out of the playoff. That's a talking point. 479 00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:45,000 Not gonna say whether it's right or wrong. I'm just 480 00:29:45,039 --> 00:29:48,279 gonna say that is a talking point right now. I'm 481 00:29:48,319 --> 00:29:52,079 not gonna wade into that because they're gonna play, all right, 482 00:29:52,119 --> 00:29:53,880 They're gonna play, and then we can see what the 483 00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:56,680 landscape is. You know what else is gonna happen in 484 00:29:56,799 --> 00:29:59,920 the sec these next few weeks, Like if Alabama lo 485 00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:03,799 is to Auburn, what happens? Then you know what happens 486 00:30:03,839 --> 00:30:08,680 if Texas loses to A and M, or off of 487 00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:10,759 that matter, beats A and M. How's that going to 488 00:30:10,839 --> 00:30:14,519 affect everything? Vanderbilt Tennessee is gonna be a huge game. 489 00:30:15,799 --> 00:30:21,240 So so many dominoes, so many variables left on the board. 490 00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:26,440 So I'm not going to resolve the USC Oregon playoff question. 491 00:30:27,119 --> 00:30:30,319 I will just say this, it's a game that both 492 00:30:30,319 --> 00:30:33,799 teams better win, right, don't leave it up to chance 493 00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:36,240 get the win. And of course you know Oregon does 494 00:30:36,319 --> 00:30:40,359 have some wiggle The real question is how much USC 495 00:30:40,440 --> 00:30:43,000 has none. USC absolutely has to win. We all agree 496 00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:46,839 on that, And so as we slice and dice this game, 497 00:30:47,039 --> 00:30:51,720 it's worth going back to the earlier point about shootouts 498 00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:55,279 in college football, quality of offenses, quality of passing games, 499 00:30:55,559 --> 00:30:58,519 and quality of quarterbacks. And this is a quarterback game. 500 00:30:59,279 --> 00:31:04,559 You know, Mayava, Dante Moore, whoever. If one side has 501 00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:09,839 the quarterback who clearly performs better, like, it's a decisive win. 502 00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:14,119 If it's a draw, then we lean Oregon. But if 503 00:31:14,359 --> 00:31:21,759 Jade and Mayava can decisively outplay Dante Moore, USC probably wins. Obviously, 504 00:31:21,839 --> 00:31:25,119 if Moore is able to even slightly play outplay Mayava, 505 00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:29,920 Oregon almost certainly wins. But if USC can score a 506 00:31:30,039 --> 00:31:35,240 knockout at the quarterback spot in Mayava just out playing 507 00:31:35,319 --> 00:31:39,240 Dante Moore by a large, large margin, that's how USC 508 00:31:39,839 --> 00:31:42,839 wins this game. But is Jade and Mayava that good? 509 00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:47,119 And obviously he was good to a certain extent against Iowa. 510 00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:50,920 He didn't throw the third quarter or second half interception 511 00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:52,400 that's really been a part of a lot of his 512 00:31:52,519 --> 00:31:55,680 games over the past six weeks. Like he threw a 513 00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:59,759 third quarter interception against Illinois, he threw a second half 514 00:31:59,759 --> 00:32:03,880 in or sception against Notre Dame. He threw a second 515 00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:10,880 half interception against Nebraska, and he threw an interception not 516 00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:13,640 in the second half, but in the first half against Northwestern, 517 00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:16,119 and he made a tackle short of the goal line 518 00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:19,960 forced a fumble. In forcing that fumbles what saved USC 519 00:32:20,079 --> 00:32:23,519 in that game. So he's been littering the statue with interceptions, 520 00:32:23,519 --> 00:32:26,559 but against Iowa there was no big stumble, no big 521 00:32:26,599 --> 00:32:29,960 mistake in the second half. That's part of why USC won. 522 00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:35,839 But now, like autin Stadium Oregon, Dan Lanning, for all 523 00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:39,920 the toastedos, it's a bigger challenge than Iowa at home. 524 00:32:40,119 --> 00:32:42,240 Not that i was bad. I was a good team, 525 00:32:42,279 --> 00:32:45,880 but i was not a great team. And Oregon having 526 00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:48,880 set a high standard in recent years under Dan Lanning, 527 00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:51,680 like this is the big boy challenge that Jade Mayava 528 00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:54,960 has to answer. It's also the challenge that USC has 529 00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:58,359 to answer on the road. Now. USC won at Nebraska, 530 00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:00,559 but it was not an impressive performance. No one would 531 00:33:00,599 --> 00:33:03,079 say that was impressive. As I mentioned earlier, the Dylan 532 00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:08,000 Roola injury really affected the outcome of that game. USC, 533 00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:12,720 against a good opponent on the road in twenty twenty five, 534 00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:16,640 has not played a complete sixty minute football game US. 535 00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:19,880 He was not spectacular at Purdue, and Purdue isn't even 536 00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:23,359 a good team. USC obviously made a ton of mistakes 537 00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:25,279 at Notre Dame on a night when the Irish didn't 538 00:33:25,279 --> 00:33:28,640 even play their best game. CJ. Carr struggled in that game, 539 00:33:28,640 --> 00:33:31,680 but USC made Notre Dame made a lot of mistakes. 540 00:33:31,759 --> 00:33:37,119 USC made even more mistakes and worse mistakes. It's been 541 00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:41,279 a long long time since a Lincoln Riley USC team 542 00:33:42,079 --> 00:33:45,000 played a complete game on the road. You could even say, 543 00:33:46,279 --> 00:33:50,039 has it ever happened? The win over Oregon State in 544 00:33:50,079 --> 00:33:54,640 twenty twenty two. It was ugly, but like USC really 545 00:33:55,359 --> 00:33:58,160 stiffened up, showed some backbone against a good team on 546 00:33:58,200 --> 00:34:02,119 the road. There was the twenty twenty two Utah game 547 00:34:02,119 --> 00:34:05,720 in which USC's offense was tremendous, scoring forty two, but 548 00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:10,519 that Alex Grinch defense gave up forty three. So really, 549 00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:14,199 against a good team on the road, Lincoln Riley's USC 550 00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:19,000 has never really played the perfect road game. Some good ones, 551 00:34:19,039 --> 00:34:23,159 but not any great ones. Well, from a USC perspective, 552 00:34:23,159 --> 00:34:26,920 it's time for USC to play a complete game now. 553 00:34:27,159 --> 00:34:30,440 As of just in terms of the realm of predictions, 554 00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:34,679 of prognostication and analysis, is us likely to play a 555 00:34:34,719 --> 00:34:39,000 complete game. Very definitely not, because USC has a problem 556 00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:42,280 with the first fifteen to twenty minutes of games. And 557 00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:46,519 so while second half adjustments halftime adjustments are all well 558 00:34:46,519 --> 00:34:49,719 and good, but if USC snows is in the first 559 00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:51,639 twenty minutes in this game the way it has been 560 00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:54,119 the last several weeks, Oregon's going to be up twenty 561 00:34:54,199 --> 00:34:57,039 one nothing and it's game over. Second half adjustments aren't 562 00:34:57,079 --> 00:35:02,519 going to matter. So USC's defense, a young defense, has 563 00:35:02,599 --> 00:35:06,599 to be able to hang together early, has to avoid 564 00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:10,679 an early Oregon surge and then settle into the game. 565 00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:14,239 And and so in many ways, there is a parallel 566 00:35:14,280 --> 00:35:19,880 with BYU Cincinnati. BYU and USC both need to weather 567 00:35:19,960 --> 00:35:22,480 the storm in the first half set up the game 568 00:35:22,519 --> 00:35:25,079 for the second half. They can achieve that on the 569 00:35:25,159 --> 00:35:28,039 road both teams are on the road, then they can win. 570 00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:31,400 But if they get snowed in in the first quarter, 571 00:35:31,880 --> 00:35:36,119 first twenty minutes, very very unlikely they're gonna be able 572 00:35:36,119 --> 00:35:38,920 to get it done. So let's talk a little bit 573 00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:41,559 more about Oregon. Of course I cover USC regularly, but 574 00:35:41,599 --> 00:35:44,800 obviously I'm following Oregon as well. And you know, if 575 00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:46,960 there are questions about Jade and Mayava. There are also 576 00:35:47,119 --> 00:35:53,920 questions about Dante Moore. Now, Dante Moore, He's cool underfires. 577 00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:58,199 That is his number one attribute at Penn State, at Iowa, 578 00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:02,800 huge stuffing, kating pressure. Dante Moore leads his team calmly 579 00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:09,400 down the field, gets the job done in immense pressure situations. 580 00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:14,280 So like you want him in your fox hole. Good teammate, 581 00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:18,599 good leader. There's a lot of good about Dante Moore. 582 00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:22,679 But just in terms of play to play, drive to drive, consistency, 583 00:36:23,199 --> 00:36:27,239 sure he's still out and I've seen the NFL level throws. 584 00:36:28,280 --> 00:36:30,519 He can throw a rope, There's no question about it. 585 00:36:30,559 --> 00:36:33,960 The late pass against Iowa. Also made some crossfield throws 586 00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:36,880 against Penn State. But those are just glimpses, you know, 587 00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:39,480 in terms of the whole body of work, the whole season, 588 00:36:39,920 --> 00:36:43,639 full games, it's been up and down, Like he got 589 00:36:43,679 --> 00:36:47,800 dominated by Indiana at home, and of course Indiana is 590 00:36:47,800 --> 00:36:51,360 in a higher weight class than usc is and Kurt 591 00:36:51,400 --> 00:36:53,800 Signetti is a better coach right now than Lincoln Riley is. 592 00:36:54,039 --> 00:36:56,599 I mean, Signetti is kind of in his ownly really 593 00:36:57,800 --> 00:37:03,360 if you think about it. So you know, Dante Moore 594 00:37:03,519 --> 00:37:06,639 has not had a smooth ride he's come up big 595 00:37:06,679 --> 00:37:09,519 in the clutch, but overall, like he did not throw 596 00:37:09,559 --> 00:37:12,199 the ball that well against Iowa through an interception in 597 00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:17,880 the red zone, struggled against Wisconsin and the Badger's defense. 598 00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:21,239 Like he's been pretty ordinary. You know, He's Oregon scored 599 00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:23,920 sixty nine points early in the season against Oklahoma State, 600 00:37:24,079 --> 00:37:27,360 but then we realized how bad Oklahoma State was, and 601 00:37:27,440 --> 00:37:30,599 so really, Dante Moore and Jade and Myava, there are 602 00:37:30,599 --> 00:37:33,440 a lot of similarities, a lot of parallels, a lot 603 00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:39,360 of common threads. Like they absolutely roasted bad teams. Mayava 604 00:37:39,519 --> 00:37:43,840 roasted Purdue and especially Michigan State, also Missouri State, Georgia, 605 00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:49,039 Southern North Northwestern as well, especially in the second half. 606 00:37:49,440 --> 00:37:53,880 But you know, Maama struggled against Notre Dame, struggled against Nebraska. 607 00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:57,480 That's also why the Iowa game is so intriguing, because 608 00:37:57,639 --> 00:38:00,519 this was actually a good opponent. Mayava elevated his level, 609 00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:03,280 but that's one game and it was at home. Now 610 00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:05,920 can he do it on the road against Oregon? Big test? 611 00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:09,639 And it's similar for Dante Moore. You know, he's been 612 00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:14,280 ordinary generally, you know, the flashes of brilliance, but as 613 00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:17,039 a whole, you know, the Wisconsin game, the Iowa game 614 00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:21,599 far from his best. Is Dante Moore now ready for 615 00:38:21,639 --> 00:38:23,039 the big time? And of course you know he he 616 00:38:23,440 --> 00:38:26,320 fell short against Indiana as well. Is he now going 617 00:38:26,360 --> 00:38:28,079 to be able to put it together? So this is 618 00:38:28,119 --> 00:38:32,079 a quarterback game, uh, you know, and USC will need 619 00:38:32,159 --> 00:38:36,039 McKay lemon to to deliver another master class. But can 620 00:38:36,039 --> 00:38:38,119 he do it on the road? You know, at Notre Dame, 621 00:38:38,159 --> 00:38:41,760 at Nebraska, mkaye Lemmon was small, he got dominated. He 622 00:38:41,880 --> 00:38:45,000 was not the dominator. He got dominated. So can makay 623 00:38:45,280 --> 00:38:47,320 Lemon deliver an elite road game? 624 00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:48,440 Speaker 1: Uh? 625 00:38:48,599 --> 00:38:51,079 Speaker 3: For USC to help out jayde Miaba, that's going to 626 00:38:51,119 --> 00:38:54,159 be one of the plot points there. Oregon's secondary, Uh 627 00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:57,239 you know, statistically the analytics say Oregon's very good. But 628 00:38:58,400 --> 00:39:02,760 again that's why I go back to pass efficiency defense, uh, 629 00:39:03,199 --> 00:39:07,800 overall defensive rankings. You know, I'm just I'm not as 630 00:39:07,800 --> 00:39:10,239 willing to trust that metric as I might have been 631 00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:14,239 or would have been a few years ago. So us 632 00:39:14,320 --> 00:39:18,280 he's passing attack against the Oregon secondary, that takes center stage. 633 00:39:18,639 --> 00:39:21,639 And then US he's young defense and uh, you know, 634 00:39:21,800 --> 00:39:27,199 for this is another plot point related to USC. USC's 635 00:39:27,320 --> 00:39:32,440 linebackers were better last year under Matt Entz, who is 636 00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:35,480 now you know, the head coach at Presno State. USC's 637 00:39:35,519 --> 00:39:38,960 linebackers were better last year under matt Ens than they 638 00:39:38,960 --> 00:39:42,280 have been this year under new linebacker coach Rob Ryan, 639 00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:45,800 longtime NFL veteran. This is a gain, This is a 640 00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:50,280 proving ground game for Rob Ryan. If USC's linebackers get crushed, 641 00:39:51,039 --> 00:39:53,760 USC might need to make a change at the linebacker 642 00:39:53,840 --> 00:39:57,880 coaching position going into next year like they're for all 643 00:39:57,920 --> 00:40:01,480 indications point too rob Ryan being the weak link on 644 00:40:01,519 --> 00:40:05,679 this defensive staff. You know, USC secondary did not have 645 00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:10,039 Kamaria Ramsey against Iowa. I already mentioned that USC also 646 00:40:10,159 --> 00:40:13,800 was lacking Bishop Fitzgerald, probably the second best player behind 647 00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:17,960 Ramsey in this secondary. But USC secondary coach Doug Belk 648 00:40:19,159 --> 00:40:23,079 had the backups ready to play and play well. So 649 00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:26,320 like when I look at US's defensive staff, I'm thinking 650 00:40:27,000 --> 00:40:30,239 Rob Ryan is the weak link. So if I'm Oregon 651 00:40:31,199 --> 00:40:34,920 and I'm offensive coordinator Will Stein, I'm trying to stress 652 00:40:34,920 --> 00:40:39,519 out and target USC's linebackers as much as I can, 653 00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:44,000 you know, balancing running pass, manipulating the field, stretching them 654 00:40:44,039 --> 00:40:49,679 out horizontally and then vertically. Whatever I can do to 655 00:40:49,880 --> 00:40:55,440 try to disguise confuse the USC linebackers. That should be 656 00:40:55,519 --> 00:40:59,639 part of Oregon's offensive game plan. So my thought on 657 00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:05,440 this is, you know, USC on the road under Lincoln 658 00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:10,480 Riley has just been you know, goose eggs. USC has 659 00:41:10,519 --> 00:41:14,960 just been so consistently sub par on the road. It's 660 00:41:15,039 --> 00:41:18,039 really hard to trust USC. And Vegas certainly isn't trusting 661 00:41:18,119 --> 00:41:21,559 USC with Oregon being an early nine and a half 662 00:41:21,559 --> 00:41:23,400 point favorite, and I've seen that line move up to 663 00:41:23,440 --> 00:41:27,039 ten point five. Can't really debate that line. I think 664 00:41:27,119 --> 00:41:32,559 that line is pretty good, pretty accurate. You know this, 665 00:41:32,559 --> 00:41:34,559 This is where you know if and if Oregon is 666 00:41:34,559 --> 00:41:38,239 a playoff team, if Oregon is a playoff caliber team, 667 00:41:38,519 --> 00:41:41,239 you know, Duck fans should not be worried about, oh 668 00:41:41,920 --> 00:41:44,920 will we get in if we lose to USC, because 669 00:41:45,280 --> 00:41:48,159 you shouldn't be losing the USC. You should be winning 670 00:41:48,159 --> 00:41:50,679 this game. You should then take care of Washington to 671 00:41:50,800 --> 00:41:54,960 go eleven and one. I don't want to hear well, yeah, 672 00:41:55,079 --> 00:41:57,519 I don't want to hear any arguments from Oregon fans, 673 00:41:58,079 --> 00:41:59,719 you know, about being left out of the playoff if 674 00:41:59,719 --> 00:42:03,000 they go ten and two because USC at home, you're 675 00:42:03,039 --> 00:42:06,159 supposed to win that game period, end of sentence. So 676 00:42:06,199 --> 00:42:08,960 like it shouldn't even be a conversation, it shouldn't even 677 00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:12,079 be a scenario. Just take care of your business, Oregon, 678 00:42:12,159 --> 00:42:14,400 as I think you will, by the way, So like 679 00:42:14,440 --> 00:42:18,320 I'm not distrusting Oregon, I'm just saying, like there shouldn't 680 00:42:18,360 --> 00:42:21,280 even be a playoff debate. Go out, win this game 681 00:42:21,320 --> 00:42:24,679 handily against USC, take care of business. That's it. You're 682 00:42:24,719 --> 00:42:27,679 in the playoff. No one's gonna argue that if Oregon 683 00:42:27,719 --> 00:42:31,000 beats USC, so Oregon holds the cards, Oregon holds the 684 00:42:31,079 --> 00:42:34,360 upper hand, but us he's gonna hope that Jade and 685 00:42:34,400 --> 00:42:38,800 Mayava can really outplay Dante Moore by a significant margin. 686 00:42:39,039 --> 00:42:41,800 The Trojans have what I would call a puncher's chance, 687 00:42:43,239 --> 00:42:48,079 but not an especially strong one, like i'd say Oregon 688 00:42:48,199 --> 00:42:51,159 with like a seventy five percent chance to win, so 689 00:42:51,280 --> 00:42:56,400 not you know, not ninety ten, not sixty forty, pretty 690 00:42:56,480 --> 00:43:00,639 much in the middle of those two, those two sides 691 00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:05,199 of the spectrum. But it's gonna be fascinating. I will say, 692 00:43:05,239 --> 00:43:07,440 it's an afternoon game, not a night game, so maybe 693 00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:10,000 that's a small added edge for USC not even play 694 00:43:10,000 --> 00:43:12,920 at night. But ultimately it comes down to you can 695 00:43:13,039 --> 00:43:16,440 USC play a complete game on the road. Skepticism is 696 00:43:16,480 --> 00:43:20,280 the appropriate position. That's what's warranted in that game. So 697 00:43:20,480 --> 00:43:24,000 USC Oregon BUYU Cincinnati two games that are gonna be 698 00:43:24,119 --> 00:43:30,159 absolutely enormous in Week thirteen of the college football season. 699 00:43:31,480 --> 00:43:35,440 Can't wait. So that's this week Forget Off My pileline. 700 00:43:35,440 --> 00:43:37,079 We're part of the College grid aeron Coast to Coast 701 00:43:37,079 --> 00:43:40,920 podcast network. Follow a college grideron Coast to Coast on 702 00:43:40,960 --> 00:43:44,760 Twitter at Gridiron Coast and get all your favorite shows. 703 00:43:44,800 --> 00:43:48,679 Also wherever you listen to your podcast Apple, Speaker, Spotify, 704 00:43:49,280 --> 00:43:52,119 you know. We cover the service academies, the state of Florida, 705 00:43:52,280 --> 00:43:57,320 the acc you name it, we cover it. The different 706 00:43:57,400 --> 00:44:01,400 slices of college football from the different corners of the country. 707 00:44:01,519 --> 00:44:03,519 All right here at the College Great and Coast to 708 00:44:03,599 --> 00:44:06,679 Coast podcast Network. This is Matt Zemic. Thanks for listening 709 00:44:06,719 --> 00:44:09,239 to another episode of Get Off My Pylon. We'll see 710 00:44:09,239 --> 00:44:11,159 you and talk to you next week.