WEBVTT 1 00:00:10.679 --> 00:00:13.640 Everybody, Welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics. I'm 2 00:00:13.640 --> 00:00:17.120 here with the full crew, Andy Milburn, Mick Molroy, Jason Lyons, 3 00:00:17.120 --> 00:00:21.839 and myself Dmitrika Takos. Uh live happening per usual, never 4 00:00:21.960 --> 00:00:25.559 not never not something happening. I want to kick off 5 00:00:25.559 --> 00:00:29.199 today with well, happy Memorial Day to everybody out there, 6 00:00:31.079 --> 00:00:36.159 first and foremost and uh yeah, back to the news. Uh, 7 00:00:36.280 --> 00:00:40.159 Russia yesterday launched a pretty massive, one of the biggest 8 00:00:40.159 --> 00:00:45.240 attacks of the war on Kiev and other places across Ukraine. 9 00:00:45.719 --> 00:00:50.079 A ton of Shahi edrones, ton of ballistic missiles. It 10 00:00:50.159 --> 00:00:52.479 looked pretty bad from like what I saw on Twitter 11 00:00:52.520 --> 00:00:57.479 and stuff like that. Doesn't really seem, as we've talked 12 00:00:57.479 --> 00:00:59.799 about multiple times, that Russia really wants to make a 13 00:01:00.320 --> 00:01:02.679 make a deal for a ceasefire or lasting piece of 14 00:01:02.719 --> 00:01:07.480 any sort. I mean, let's kick it off there. Andy, 15 00:01:07.799 --> 00:01:10.280 you go first. You tell me what you're tracking, what 16 00:01:10.319 --> 00:01:11.159 you're thinking about that. 17 00:01:12.079 --> 00:01:14.719 Yeah, so friends in friends of mine in Kiev says 18 00:01:15.040 --> 00:01:18.000 say that from the perspective being on the ground, it 19 00:01:18.159 --> 00:01:22.680 was one of the worst, one of the worst raids. 20 00:01:22.799 --> 00:01:24.959 It's an old fashioned term, and one of the worst 21 00:01:25.000 --> 00:01:30.120 series of strikes in Kiev since the war started, certainly 22 00:01:30.840 --> 00:01:36.000 signaling that Russia has no intention really of of doing 23 00:01:36.040 --> 00:01:39.120 anything but continue what they're doing, targeting civilian areas. And 24 00:01:39.319 --> 00:01:42.840 you know, again this is not this isn't propaganda. That's 25 00:01:42.879 --> 00:01:45.879 exactly what they are doing. I think, you know, there's 26 00:01:45.920 --> 00:01:50.159 nothing particularly shocking here. What is shocking is United States 27 00:01:50.280 --> 00:01:51.879 lack of response. 28 00:01:51.560 --> 00:01:51.719 You know. 29 00:01:51.799 --> 00:01:56.959 I mean, we simply refuse to call Putin on doing 30 00:01:56.959 --> 00:01:58.760 what he's doing, which is escalating the war. 31 00:01:59.560 --> 00:02:01.680 So this of course happened at a time when they 32 00:02:01.680 --> 00:02:04.599 were doing this. I think it was the largest prisoner 33 00:02:04.640 --> 00:02:07.560 exchange they've done. It's like the sixty fourth time they've 34 00:02:07.560 --> 00:02:10.599 done prisoner exchanges. So although it's a good thing, of 35 00:02:10.639 --> 00:02:14.439 course to get your prisoners back, from Ukraine's perspective, I 36 00:02:14.439 --> 00:02:16.960 don't think it indicates that they're getting anywhere closer to 37 00:02:18.360 --> 00:02:21.879 some kind of ceasefire. I think it's in their interest, 38 00:02:21.919 --> 00:02:23.840 so they do it. They also ask for all these 39 00:02:23.879 --> 00:02:28.199 buffer zones, which are obviously self serving as well. It's 40 00:02:28.280 --> 00:02:32.960 time for the United States, I believe, to first pass 41 00:02:33.039 --> 00:02:37.879 the Sanctioning Russia Act. That's the act that's being sponsored 42 00:02:37.960 --> 00:02:44.039 by Lindsey Graham and Senator Blumenthal, so Senator Graham and 43 00:02:44.120 --> 00:02:48.759 Senator Blumenthal. It apparently has eighty senators already signed on 44 00:02:48.840 --> 00:02:51.360 to it, which in this day and time is almost 45 00:02:51.439 --> 00:02:55.680 unheard of as far as bipartisan support. What it would 46 00:02:55.680 --> 00:03:00.319 do any country that purchases Russian oil and gas would 47 00:03:00.360 --> 00:03:03.759 then immediately have a five hundred percent tariff put on 48 00:03:03.800 --> 00:03:08.159 their goods coming into the United States. So even if 49 00:03:08.199 --> 00:03:11.840 this trade work were to go away, basically a five 50 00:03:11.960 --> 00:03:14.120 hundred percent tariff basically is an embargo. 51 00:03:14.280 --> 00:03:17.680 You might as just call it an embargo. 52 00:03:17.039 --> 00:03:21.400 That would have consequences to India, for example, China, who 53 00:03:21.479 --> 00:03:26.280 all not only purchase Russian energy but keep Russian the 54 00:03:26.360 --> 00:03:31.439 Russian war machine going. So and there's apparently a parallel 55 00:03:31.439 --> 00:03:33.919 bill in the House of Representatives. 56 00:03:34.120 --> 00:03:35.759 So all good things. 57 00:03:36.240 --> 00:03:38.560 If they if they if they push it, and I 58 00:03:38.680 --> 00:03:42.319 and these are veto proofs, so not that they would 59 00:03:42.360 --> 00:03:44.599 that I know of, But if they can't, the White 60 00:03:44.599 --> 00:03:47.120 House can't even veto it, it'll it'll pass and it'll 61 00:03:47.120 --> 00:03:51.360 be signed into law. Actually, the way tariffs should be 62 00:03:52.000 --> 00:03:56.759 done is congressional, so that that could happen right now. 63 00:03:57.560 --> 00:04:00.560 Other areas that I think people are going to start 64 00:04:00.560 --> 00:04:05.840 focusing on is. I've only seen a few outlets talk 65 00:04:05.879 --> 00:04:08.520 about it, but if they're correct, it looks like there's 66 00:04:08.759 --> 00:04:12.599 going to be a substantial Russian push into Kharkiv. It's 67 00:04:12.639 --> 00:04:16.879 around fifty thousand troops massing on the border, to include 68 00:04:16.879 --> 00:04:22.839 some of their more elite forces. Kharkiev and Andy can 69 00:04:22.879 --> 00:04:26.079 tell you even more details about the significance, but it's 70 00:04:26.120 --> 00:04:31.519 the second largest city. This be something that should trigger 71 00:04:31.680 --> 00:04:33.879 all the things that we've been talking about to happen, 72 00:04:35.600 --> 00:04:40.279 which includes substantial increase in security, absistence assistance from Europe, 73 00:04:40.399 --> 00:04:43.639 the United States, the releasing of troches of funds of 74 00:04:43.720 --> 00:04:48.120 Russian frozen assets, This sectioning of Russia acts should be passed, 75 00:04:48.600 --> 00:04:54.000 and we should start preparing for an even further involvement 76 00:04:54.040 --> 00:04:57.199 of NATO countries into the conflict. But that's something I 77 00:04:57.240 --> 00:05:00.319 think everybody's going to start looking at because it, at 78 00:05:00.399 --> 00:05:02.199 least from the reporting, appears to. 79 00:05:02.160 --> 00:05:08.839 Be somewhat Yeah, the the fighting in Dombas has intensified, 80 00:05:09.240 --> 00:05:13.199 and you know, I haven't had first an experience there 81 00:05:13.199 --> 00:05:16.560 for a period of time, but just hearing that term 82 00:05:17.040 --> 00:05:21.120 that it intensified has intensified there is you know, conjures 83 00:05:21.199 --> 00:05:25.839 up some some unimaginable images. Put it that way, I 84 00:05:25.879 --> 00:05:27.800 mean from the first from the beginning of the war, 85 00:05:27.839 --> 00:05:30.240 at least from mid twenty twenty two, it looked like 86 00:05:30.879 --> 00:05:33.800 scenes from the First World War. And the towns have 87 00:05:33.879 --> 00:05:37.040 been absolutely well, even back then, absolutely annihilated. And now 88 00:05:38.079 --> 00:05:40.639 the threat of drones, some of the use of drones 89 00:05:40.680 --> 00:05:44.600 on both sides, has become so ubiquitous that there's a 90 00:05:44.800 --> 00:05:49.519 personal aspect to these bombardaments, with drones actually seeking out people, 91 00:05:49.720 --> 00:05:54.839 locking onto them and killing them. Just a I don't think. 92 00:05:56.000 --> 00:06:00.199 I don't think many people can just imagine what to 93 00:06:00.439 --> 00:06:04.279 what the environment there is like and people here, you know, 94 00:06:04.319 --> 00:06:07.360 as we approach Memorial Day and we get the usual 95 00:06:07.879 --> 00:06:12.800 tranch of retirees who want to post pictures themselves in 96 00:06:12.920 --> 00:06:17.360 uniform and on social media, and you know, the ubiquitous 97 00:06:17.360 --> 00:06:20.319 of the term use of the term here combat veteran. 98 00:06:20.319 --> 00:06:23.079 I don't think really anyone can understand what modern warfare 99 00:06:23.120 --> 00:06:26.959 looks like as it's been waged in Ukraine, and not 100 00:06:27.040 --> 00:06:28.720 just on the front line but against some of the 101 00:06:28.759 --> 00:06:35.000 major cities there. But there are there are, you know, 102 00:06:35.120 --> 00:06:42.040 mentioned Kharkiv. The thing about it, though, is that although 103 00:06:42.040 --> 00:06:46.199 the Ukrainians have are certainly having manpower problems. They are 104 00:06:46.240 --> 00:06:48.600 they are more than holding their own on the front line. 105 00:06:48.800 --> 00:06:52.639 And you know, we've talked here about the offset. The 106 00:06:53.279 --> 00:06:56.399 disproportionate number of casualties have been inflected on both sides. 107 00:06:56.439 --> 00:06:59.000 The Russians are taking way more casualties, yes they can 108 00:06:59.040 --> 00:07:03.839 afford to. But on the other hand, the you know, 109 00:07:03.879 --> 00:07:07.279 there has to there's going to be. There's going to 110 00:07:07.319 --> 00:07:10.560 be at some point, I think, a point of pain 111 00:07:10.639 --> 00:07:14.720 beyond which, you know, the Russian population just says no mass. 112 00:07:14.800 --> 00:07:18.360 You know, I've said that before that it's hard to 113 00:07:18.360 --> 00:07:22.560 tell when that's going to happen, and it's but it 114 00:07:22.800 --> 00:07:24.920 sooner or later. It is likely to happen after what 115 00:07:25.079 --> 00:07:30.519 happened in Afghanistan with far fewer casualties, only fifteen thousand dead. 116 00:07:30.680 --> 00:07:34.519 I say, only fifteen thousand in Afghanistan. And I think 117 00:07:34.920 --> 00:07:38.480 numbers vary in this war, but as high as one 118 00:07:38.519 --> 00:07:43.199 hundred thousand Russian soldiers dead. They're losing a thousand every day. 119 00:07:43.639 --> 00:07:46.160 And now whether you look at the Ministry of Defense 120 00:07:46.199 --> 00:07:49.800 British Ministry of Defense figures, which are probably the most reliable, 121 00:07:51.959 --> 00:07:54.839 or other figures that go even higher. You know that 122 00:07:55.000 --> 00:07:58.399 subwords to a thousand killed every day. That's just unimaginable, 123 00:07:58.439 --> 00:08:02.040 isn't it. I mean, sorry, hundred casualties, one hundred thousand 124 00:08:02.120 --> 00:08:05.639 casualties every day, it's almost unimaginable. And the Ukrainians have 125 00:08:05.720 --> 00:08:09.920 some advantages. They're using fiber optic drones now, which means 126 00:08:10.199 --> 00:08:12.600 a couple of things that they're much I mean, they're 127 00:08:12.639 --> 00:08:16.560 impossible to jam using EW by fiber optic means they 128 00:08:16.560 --> 00:08:20.839 are literally drones literally attached to the controller by a 129 00:08:20.879 --> 00:08:23.879 fiber optic keyboard. It's like a fishing line. And so 130 00:08:24.120 --> 00:08:27.759 you've got the Yeah, you've got the fact that they 131 00:08:27.759 --> 00:08:29.839 can't be jammed, which is one of the biggest problems 132 00:08:29.839 --> 00:08:31.879 on the front. The Russians are very good with EW. 133 00:08:32.240 --> 00:08:34.919 But the other thing is you're getting crystal clear imagery 134 00:08:35.320 --> 00:08:39.440 on these things, and the Ukrainians are churning these out, 135 00:08:40.519 --> 00:08:43.919 you know, the rate of hundreds to one thousand every day. 136 00:08:44.480 --> 00:08:48.120 And so it's again the kind of the face of warfare. 137 00:08:48.879 --> 00:08:52.759 And I'm always bouncing around between whether the character on 138 00:08:52.799 --> 00:08:56.799 the nature of warfare has changed, and you know, people 139 00:08:56.799 --> 00:08:59.240 who teach at war colleges get very offended if you 140 00:08:59.320 --> 00:09:01.720 use the wrong term. But certainly the face of war 141 00:09:01.759 --> 00:09:05.840 has changed hugely there, and it is changing generally in 142 00:09:05.840 --> 00:09:13.759 the Ukrainians favor. So this feeling that Ukraine is on 143 00:09:13.840 --> 00:09:16.679 the ropes and we'll give in soon, I think it's mistaken. 144 00:09:17.000 --> 00:09:21.080 On the other hand, on the other hand, the problem 145 00:09:21.120 --> 00:09:24.200 is that it's hard to envision right now either side 146 00:09:24.320 --> 00:09:28.240 making a major breakthrough. I did. The Russians just don't 147 00:09:28.279 --> 00:09:30.759 have enough. They don't have enough gas in the tank, 148 00:09:30.919 --> 00:09:34.399 I think to seize the rest of Donbass. I mean 149 00:09:34.440 --> 00:09:37.919 they've been trying to capture pock rossk now for I 150 00:09:37.960 --> 00:09:41.159 mean for about a year. And shithole of a town 151 00:09:41.200 --> 00:09:43.279 that it is. I just say that because there's one 152 00:09:43.320 --> 00:09:46.279 particular viewer who gets outraged when I say that, because 153 00:09:46.279 --> 00:09:48.360 he lives now or used to live there. But it's 154 00:09:49.440 --> 00:09:52.240 we all hope pop Ross does not fall. But it 155 00:09:52.279 --> 00:09:54.200 is a shithole of a town. But I mean, my 156 00:09:54.240 --> 00:09:58.600 point is the Russians are not They They are in places, 157 00:09:58.679 --> 00:10:02.000 making very very slow, incremental moves on the front line, 158 00:10:02.360 --> 00:10:06.960 but at great, great cost. And it's certainly not you know, 159 00:10:07.000 --> 00:10:09.039 at Dundale to say that they're going to own all 160 00:10:09.039 --> 00:10:15.440 of Donbass. So and and if I guess what I'm 161 00:10:15.440 --> 00:10:19.879 heading on. This is the US. The US really can 162 00:10:19.960 --> 00:10:23.240 put its thumb on the scale and I you know, 163 00:10:23.279 --> 00:10:25.919 on on either side and make a big difference in 164 00:10:25.960 --> 00:10:28.799 this conflict. If we went all in, all in on 165 00:10:28.919 --> 00:10:34.559 absolutely enforcing sanctions on Russia, on flooding the battlefield with 166 00:10:34.559 --> 00:10:40.480 with with long range precision strike weapons, for instance, then 167 00:10:40.799 --> 00:10:44.080 I think we could raise the pain level against Russia. 168 00:10:44.120 --> 00:10:47.279 And who knows. I mean, the war is already considered 169 00:10:47.279 --> 00:10:52.559 Putin's war. He's already already facing considerable opposition. This is 170 00:10:52.600 --> 00:10:56.159 an interesting point when he talks about freezing the front line. 171 00:10:56.240 --> 00:10:59.320 So when the US talks about freezing the front lines 172 00:10:59.399 --> 00:11:02.159 as they are now, which is Russia holding two thirds 173 00:11:02.159 --> 00:11:08.039 of Donbas, surprisingly there is considerable opposition to that within 174 00:11:08.080 --> 00:11:11.919 the Russian army. And the reason is because they have 175 00:11:12.080 --> 00:11:15.919 seen these horrendous casualties over the course of three years, 176 00:11:15.960 --> 00:11:19.120 and they're saying, what, we've lost all of this just 177 00:11:19.159 --> 00:11:21.840 to take two thirds of don Bass, you know, not 178 00:11:22.840 --> 00:11:25.200 even a fifth of the country of Ukraine. Come on, 179 00:11:25.240 --> 00:11:28.840 you must beginning. So the point is that Putince can 180 00:11:28.840 --> 00:11:33.639 be holding on by his fingernails if he agrees even 181 00:11:33.720 --> 00:11:36.559 you know, as far as being able to betray the 182 00:11:36.559 --> 00:11:39.600 war as a victory to his own people, even if 183 00:11:39.600 --> 00:11:41.720 the front lights were frozen the way they are. If 184 00:11:41.759 --> 00:11:46.559 the war continues and the Russian casualties ramp up, as 185 00:11:46.559 --> 00:11:50.639 they certainly will, if the US throats its way behind Ukraine, 186 00:11:51.000 --> 00:11:53.080 then I think you're going to see that he's on 187 00:11:53.159 --> 00:11:56.519 the ropes and agreeing to far more agreeable terms. But 188 00:11:56.679 --> 00:11:59.519 right now, my point is, right now, we the US 189 00:12:00.600 --> 00:12:05.799 are playing to him, and he is sidestepping, and he 190 00:12:05.919 --> 00:12:10.759 talk of a ceasefire, and so again it gets back 191 00:12:10.799 --> 00:12:13.240 to the fact the only thing he understands, sadly, is pain, 192 00:12:13.840 --> 00:12:16.279 and that we can certainly bring that to him, but 193 00:12:16.360 --> 00:12:19.600 we seem reluctant to do so. On mixed point about 194 00:12:20.080 --> 00:12:24.600 prisoner exchanges. Very interestingly, we've seen this throughout the war 195 00:12:24.759 --> 00:12:27.279 between the Ukrainians and the Russians. There is a tremendous 196 00:12:27.320 --> 00:12:29.720 amount of hatred and bitterness because it is, in a 197 00:12:29.840 --> 00:12:35.600 sense a civil war. And when you talk about ethnically culturally, 198 00:12:37.799 --> 00:12:42.120 Russians and Ukrainians of course have been closely affiliated, to 199 00:12:42.120 --> 00:12:47.759 say the least throughout the centuries, and many Ukrainians have 200 00:12:47.879 --> 00:12:54.039 relatives in Russia vice versa. But there is also at 201 00:12:54.080 --> 00:12:57.159 the same time I've seen that brigade level, battalion level, 202 00:12:57.200 --> 00:13:02.799 and element of humanity And just one quick anecdote from 203 00:13:02.840 --> 00:13:06.440 my own experience, and we are in a place called 204 00:13:07.200 --> 00:13:10.480 solid Or, We're in the Mozart group. We're trying to 205 00:13:10.480 --> 00:13:16.080 get through to evacuate civilians and take out some the 206 00:13:16.200 --> 00:13:20.080 Ukrainian military casualties. And we were contacted by the commander. 207 00:13:20.840 --> 00:13:24.519 Ukrainian brigade commander said, don't even try. We are you know, 208 00:13:24.519 --> 00:13:29.799 we're cut off, and the the intensity of the fire 209 00:13:29.919 --> 00:13:31.960 is such that I don't think anything's going to get through. 210 00:13:32.320 --> 00:13:35.360 Certainly we weren't going to win soft skinned vehicles. Well, 211 00:13:35.399 --> 00:13:37.679 the very next day we got a call and we're told, hey, 212 00:13:37.879 --> 00:13:40.759 the road is clear, just drive in, all right, you 213 00:13:40.799 --> 00:13:44.440 can come in and evacuate civilians. And the first thing 214 00:13:44.480 --> 00:13:48.039 we noticed was the silence. Never you never hear things 215 00:13:48.120 --> 00:13:50.200 as quiet at that in Dombas, at least you happened 216 00:13:50.159 --> 00:13:53.279 in the last three years. And what had happened is overnight. 217 00:13:54.000 --> 00:13:56.240 I don't know who initiated, but either Russian or the 218 00:13:56.279 --> 00:13:58.919 Ukrainian brigade commander had called the other on a cell 219 00:13:58.919 --> 00:14:04.240 phone and said, you know, hey, Ivan greg Or Igor, 220 00:14:05.080 --> 00:14:07.120 let's do this, all right. You've got a bunch of 221 00:14:07.159 --> 00:14:09.879 casualties that you need to be evacuated, you can't get 222 00:14:09.879 --> 00:14:12.639 them out, But you've also got a ton of our prisoners. 223 00:14:13.039 --> 00:14:15.480 Why don't we do this. You turn our prisoners over 224 00:14:15.600 --> 00:14:17.960 and we'll let you evacuate your casualties. And that's what 225 00:14:18.000 --> 00:14:20.679 the Russians and Ukrainians agreed to, And there was a 226 00:14:20.759 --> 00:14:23.240 twenty four hour ceasefire. Not only that, but the two 227 00:14:23.240 --> 00:14:28.200 brigade commanders met and everyone has forbidden from taking photographs 228 00:14:28.200 --> 00:14:31.039 of this because it wasn't something that was I think, 229 00:14:31.200 --> 00:14:33.679 I don't know, but it wasn't something that was advertised 230 00:14:33.759 --> 00:14:38.360 up either side's chain of command. So these events have 231 00:14:38.480 --> 00:14:43.840 been taking place at tactical level, it's unusual to see 232 00:14:43.840 --> 00:14:49.080 them take place higher, but it doesn't necessarily auger the 233 00:14:49.080 --> 00:14:51.519 imminence of a longer term ceasefire. 234 00:14:53.360 --> 00:14:54.519 I mean, Andy's crushing it. 235 00:14:54.639 --> 00:14:57.159 Yeah, yeah, So I guess I'm gonna go back to you. 236 00:14:57.200 --> 00:14:57.480 Andy. 237 00:14:58.679 --> 00:15:02.120 You mentioned the verbial thumb on the scale on the 238 00:15:02.200 --> 00:15:05.279 Russian side of it. How much do you think that 239 00:15:05.559 --> 00:15:09.600 us putting our thumb firm more firmly on the scale, 240 00:15:09.639 --> 00:15:14.279 as in calling them out and and making good on 241 00:15:14.559 --> 00:15:17.679 any repercussions that we you know, of the few that 242 00:15:17.720 --> 00:15:20.519 we've presented to them, would that make a difference, because 243 00:15:20.519 --> 00:15:24.879 it seems like right now our lack of any kind 244 00:15:24.919 --> 00:15:29.720 of consistency is emboldening them. So do you think that 245 00:15:30.240 --> 00:15:33.799 us enacting those things, calling them out, you know, as 246 00:15:33.840 --> 00:15:37.759 in the President calling out Putin, could have a huge 247 00:15:37.759 --> 00:15:39.679 effect or you know? 248 00:15:40.120 --> 00:15:40.360 Or not? 249 00:15:41.039 --> 00:15:43.480 I you know, I it's a great question. I can't 250 00:15:43.519 --> 00:15:45.799 answer it. I can't say whether it will have an effect. 251 00:15:45.840 --> 00:15:47.639 But I'll tell you what won't have an effect what 252 00:15:47.679 --> 00:15:51.799 we're doing now, which is just ignoring what Putin's doing again. 253 00:15:51.879 --> 00:15:55.720 I mean, I think recent history has shown that Putin 254 00:15:56.000 --> 00:16:01.519 reacts to fear he you know, go back to the example, 255 00:16:01.879 --> 00:16:09.399 or he reacts to painting inflicted on the Russian military 256 00:16:09.600 --> 00:16:14.919 and possible repercussions towards him. If you go back to 257 00:16:15.120 --> 00:16:18.639 twenty fifteen and when there was a lot of saber 258 00:16:18.720 --> 00:16:23.279 rattling between Russia and Turkey over the front line in Syria, 259 00:16:23.559 --> 00:16:26.600 and the Russians were flying planes of Turkish lines and 260 00:16:27.240 --> 00:16:29.519 Erdawan said, hey, if you do that again, we're going 261 00:16:29.559 --> 00:16:33.639 to shoot your planes down. And sure enough, the Turks 262 00:16:33.639 --> 00:16:36.440 did well. The Russians didn't escalate to go to war. 263 00:16:37.000 --> 00:16:39.720 They'd learned that lesson and they backed off the same 264 00:16:39.759 --> 00:16:43.399 thing when the US killed a bunch of Russian contractors, 265 00:16:43.759 --> 00:16:48.039 when was that twenty seventeen or twenty eighteen in the 266 00:16:48.080 --> 00:16:51.320 Middle Euphrates Valley, the same thing. I mean, the Russians 267 00:16:51.320 --> 00:16:55.360 didn't threaten us with war. They backed off and they 268 00:16:55.360 --> 00:17:00.080 pulled back down lions. Again, we don't seem to we 269 00:17:00.240 --> 00:17:04.079 learned from this. We went through this whole period of escalaitis. 270 00:17:04.759 --> 00:17:07.400 We were just terrified that he was going to do something, 271 00:17:09.000 --> 00:17:13.839 but history shown that he doesn't. He reacts to things 272 00:17:13.839 --> 00:17:16.960 being done against him that inflict pain. Oh and you 273 00:17:17.000 --> 00:17:19.319 know the other example you could use. I know progosion 274 00:17:19.480 --> 00:17:23.079 came to a sticky end in the end, but remember 275 00:17:23.119 --> 00:17:27.400 when almost said the Mozart group, Remember when the Partner 276 00:17:27.480 --> 00:17:31.720 group was rebelling and advancing on Moscow, I mean Putin. 277 00:17:32.680 --> 00:17:35.799 Putin went quiet right, and there was very little done, 278 00:17:36.480 --> 00:17:39.480 and in fact, the army looked as though it was 279 00:17:39.519 --> 00:17:43.799 collaborating with pregosion. I think that must have terrified Putin. 280 00:17:44.720 --> 00:17:49.960 And and yes he got he got revenge, but he 281 00:17:50.039 --> 00:17:53.759 didn't he didn't reach out and try and crush and 282 00:17:54.119 --> 00:17:55.799 I don't know if he was even able to do that. 283 00:17:55.880 --> 00:17:58.359 He didn't try and crush the rebellion while it was happening. 284 00:17:59.559 --> 00:18:05.799 That was amos quote from Lettin. I'll paraphrase when probing 285 00:18:05.960 --> 00:18:09.720 with Baydets. If you find mush push, if you find 286 00:18:09.799 --> 00:18:11.079 steel withdraw, right. 287 00:18:11.640 --> 00:18:14.599 So we need to be more of a front that 288 00:18:15.400 --> 00:18:19.839 promotes the idea of steel right because right now, until 289 00:18:19.839 --> 00:18:23.200 he sees consequences, he doesn't care about compliments or any 290 00:18:23.200 --> 00:18:25.160 of that stuff. It's not going to He's not going 291 00:18:25.240 --> 00:18:28.960 to be talked into doing something that he doesn't think 292 00:18:29.559 --> 00:18:32.039 is in his interest at all. He doesn't care what 293 00:18:32.160 --> 00:18:34.359 the world thinks about him. So he has to see 294 00:18:34.400 --> 00:18:37.079 the consequences on the battlefield and he has to see 295 00:18:37.079 --> 00:18:42.440 that his Uh, he's I think it's already a strategic failure, clearly. 296 00:18:43.039 --> 00:18:44.480 But if he doesn't see it's going to be a 297 00:18:44.519 --> 00:18:45.519 strategic disaster. 298 00:18:46.359 --> 00:18:48.880 He's not going to react. So we have to. 299 00:18:49.240 --> 00:18:53.519 We have to support them every way we can, or 300 00:18:53.759 --> 00:18:56.880 if he does somehow pull this off, he's not going 301 00:18:56.920 --> 00:19:01.400 to stop there. Right, He's already he he has found 302 00:19:01.440 --> 00:19:06.160 a mush push. So that's something we need to change 303 00:19:06.559 --> 00:19:08.319 when it comes to his perspective on this. 304 00:19:08.480 --> 00:19:09.519 Hey guys, it's Jack. 305 00:19:09.599 --> 00:19:10.960 I just want to talk to you for a moment 306 00:19:11.000 --> 00:19:13.160 about how you can support the show. 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We really appreciate it, guys. 335 00:20:42.599 --> 00:20:42.960 Thank you. 336 00:20:43.640 --> 00:20:47.000 So it's really it's really, you know, just a I know, 337 00:20:47.240 --> 00:20:49.160 I keep returning to the tacticle, but I find it 338 00:20:49.240 --> 00:20:53.200 fascinating the tact extent are evolving into beast. 339 00:20:53.319 --> 00:20:53.519 Now. 340 00:20:53.960 --> 00:20:55.799 You know when I always had that the Russians were 341 00:20:56.519 --> 00:21:01.960 starting to use quad bikes and motive cycles to probe 342 00:21:02.079 --> 00:21:07.880 Ukrainian lines. Well, now in the fighting around constant Constantinivka, 343 00:21:08.119 --> 00:21:10.119 I'm going to get criticized in the way to pronounced 344 00:21:10.160 --> 00:21:18.200 that Constantinivka, which is a it's a town south southwest 345 00:21:18.279 --> 00:21:25.519 of Barmud, which and northeast of my favorite place, Pokrovsk, 346 00:21:25.720 --> 00:21:28.279 so it's kind of like midway between the two towns. 347 00:21:28.359 --> 00:21:31.119 Very I'm very familiar with the place. But the Russians 348 00:21:31.119 --> 00:21:36.319 apparently launched an attack this last week using with about 349 00:21:36.599 --> 00:21:41.079 an estimated who knows about a company sized attack entirely 350 00:21:41.079 --> 00:21:45.200 on motorcycles, just just riding at the Ukrainian lines, and 351 00:21:45.359 --> 00:21:51.240 Ukrainians mowed them down and drove them back. But it's 352 00:21:50.759 --> 00:21:55.799 it's not easy, you know. It's it's no longer these 353 00:21:55.839 --> 00:21:59.759 attacks and lumbering armored vehicles with infantry fighting vehicles or 354 00:21:59.759 --> 00:22:03.400 EPs covered by a few tanks, because with drones and 355 00:22:03.559 --> 00:22:07.720 at gms that the Ukrainians were having an easy task 356 00:22:07.799 --> 00:22:09.960 of just carving them up. But when you have like 357 00:22:10.000 --> 00:22:12.920 a hundred motorcycles riding at you, you know, on your 358 00:22:12.960 --> 00:22:16.839 flanks and everywhere, there's a chance that a good bunch 359 00:22:16.880 --> 00:22:18.920 of them are going to be able to outflank you. 360 00:22:18.920 --> 00:22:22.440 You know, it's a very interesting change in tactics. And 361 00:22:22.480 --> 00:22:25.079 if and even if you it doesn't matter, I mean, 362 00:22:25.119 --> 00:22:26.960 you just don't aren't going to have enough drones to 363 00:22:27.000 --> 00:22:30.920 be able to stop them all. So you know, what's 364 00:22:31.039 --> 00:22:35.000 what's evolved here is rather than combining a bunch of 365 00:22:35.079 --> 00:22:38.960 guys in an infantry finding vehicle an APC where they 366 00:22:38.960 --> 00:22:42.440 can be incinerated with one shot. The Russians have learned 367 00:22:42.440 --> 00:22:48.720 to spread them in you know, across across smaller platforms, 368 00:22:49.039 --> 00:22:54.599 faster moving and it's kind of the same lesson that 369 00:22:54.880 --> 00:22:57.519 for instance, US Marine Corps has been learning in twenty 370 00:22:57.599 --> 00:23:00.400 nine Palms and their peer on peer exercise is called 371 00:23:00.559 --> 00:23:05.119 Magtif war fighting exercises. Not so much in the attack, 372 00:23:05.240 --> 00:23:07.599 although they should have learned these lessons in the attack, 373 00:23:08.720 --> 00:23:11.400 but the Marine Corps just didn't have that many motorcycles. 374 00:23:11.599 --> 00:23:14.359 But they've learned it. As far as in logistics resupply 375 00:23:14.759 --> 00:23:19.480 that it's no longer it's it's suicidal now to to 376 00:23:19.480 --> 00:23:22.960 try and resupply forces using the traditional way that we 377 00:23:23.039 --> 00:23:25.839 used to in Iraq in Afghanistan with these big convoys, 378 00:23:26.000 --> 00:23:28.079 and the best way to do it is on razors 379 00:23:28.559 --> 00:23:33.279 or quad bikes with little petty packets of logistics resupply. 380 00:23:34.319 --> 00:23:38.519 So, how does the fiber optic drone? Does it actually 381 00:23:39.359 --> 00:23:41.400 drag the fiber optic with it or how does it 382 00:23:41.480 --> 00:23:43.279 keep from. 383 00:23:42.799 --> 00:23:46.119 Yeah, that's you know, that's a that's a really good question. 384 00:23:47.000 --> 00:23:49.279 I'm not I'm not sure. And the other thing is, 385 00:23:50.200 --> 00:23:53.279 and the Ukraine have been using this for this method 386 00:23:53.359 --> 00:23:55.759 for about a year. The other thing I'm not sure 387 00:23:56.359 --> 00:23:59.279 how this works is now what I had. What I 388 00:23:59.319 --> 00:24:01.920 do know is that there's a fail sate, so the 389 00:24:01.960 --> 00:24:06.079 fiber optic cable gets separated. The drone can still operate 390 00:24:06.200 --> 00:24:08.359 using other means, so you can still pick up using 391 00:24:08.440 --> 00:24:11.519 you know, the ground control system. So the fiber optic 392 00:24:11.640 --> 00:24:17.920 cable just enables it to fly. It's primary means of 393 00:24:18.680 --> 00:24:21.880 connection with the ground control station. Uh. But the but 394 00:24:22.000 --> 00:24:24.839 I don't know how they avoid snagging. And I don't 395 00:24:24.880 --> 00:24:27.200 know what the range is on these things. 396 00:24:27.400 --> 00:24:31.119 And those are you know, those are good good questions. 397 00:24:31.519 --> 00:24:33.680 Yeah, I'm sure there are. You know, we've got a 398 00:24:33.759 --> 00:24:35.240 very highly educated audience. 399 00:24:36.519 --> 00:24:38.839 Well, I understand it's kind of like the uh, I 400 00:24:38.839 --> 00:24:40.559 don't even know if they use them anymore, the toe 401 00:24:40.799 --> 00:24:44.759