Speaker 1: With Laurent's segele end from London and Gerard read from Berlin.
Speaker 1: This is redefining.
Speaker 2: Energy Today on Redefining erg Jah, we're going to talk
Speaker 2: about evs and.
Speaker 1: Batteries absolutely and an incredible progress we're seeing in terms
Speaker 1: of technology development and also cost reductions.
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Speaker 2: Back to the show and the volumes. This year, the
Speaker 2: best market is going at forty percent on her and
Speaker 2: the EV market is going to expand by twenty six percent,
Speaker 2: which is at the latest number from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence
Speaker 2: for the first nine months of the year global fourteen
Speaker 2: point seven million including so China nine million plus twenty
Speaker 2: four percent, You of three million plus thirty two percent
Speaker 2: North American only plus eleven percent, and listen to this
Speaker 2: rest of the world plus forty eight percent. Insane.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And as we are gat to the point now
Speaker 1: where these cars are now cheaper to actually buy than
Speaker 1: the internal composition engine equivalence. And that's why in the
Speaker 1: rest of the world is growing because at the end
Speaker 1: of the day, the Chinese are now coming out with
Speaker 1: low course cars that are cheaper to buy and cheaper
Speaker 1: to run. So those numbers come from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.
Speaker 1: We thought it was a good idea to bring in
Speaker 1: the brilliant yola Us, who's head of research at Benchmark
Speaker 1: Mineral Intelligence.
Speaker 2: Let's bring around the shell. I own it.
Speaker 3: It's great to have you on the shell.
Speaker 4: Thanks very much for having me.
Speaker 2: Well, especially it's great to have somebody something because we
Speaker 2: have something the expelled to know nothing. And what we
Speaker 2: really like with you is that you are keeping track
Speaker 2: of all the data around batteries, eveess and so on.
Speaker 2: So we brought you in to discuss the state of
Speaker 2: play at the end of tour twenty five. Maybe we're
Speaker 2: going to start with the batteries, so I would say,
Speaker 2: the cells, what do you see there?
Speaker 4: Last unpack, It's been a busy year for sure. I
Speaker 4: guess first place to start is just in terms of
Speaker 4: headline battery demand growth, we're expecting that to come out
Speaker 4: at about twenty three percent growth compared to twenty four
Speaker 4: levels year to date. When we look at the different markets,
Speaker 4: generally we're at twenty eight percent growth. EV market is
Speaker 4: up just over thirty percent year to date, and then
Speaker 4: the energy storage market is up over forty percent year
Speaker 4: to date. So that's certainly well with seeing the strongest
Speaker 4: go throup from from the battery perspective. I think the
Speaker 4: other thing just to kind of highlight before we get
Speaker 4: into the kind of detail of the different markets, is
Speaker 4: in terms of the chemistry spits that we're seeing. We're
Speaker 4: now seeing LFP chemistry share in the EV market over
Speaker 4: fifty percent, and that's really on the back of strong
Speaker 4: sales in China and dominant in LFP in Chinese eds.
Speaker 4: And then of course in the storage market we're seeing
Speaker 4: well over ninety percent LFP share. So when you bring
Speaker 4: those two markets together, and because the storage market is
Speaker 4: growing a lot faster than the EV market, we do
Speaker 4: see this LFP market show really kind of growing its dominance.
Speaker 3: Explain a little bit about LFP and the different chemistries
Speaker 3: just because like a lot of all our listeners are
Speaker 3: experts in that area and just talk about really the
Speaker 3: changes that have taken place and in the last few years,
Speaker 3: so you can give context to people.
Speaker 4: Yeah for sure.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 4: So LFP is a lithian iron phosphate battery that is
Speaker 4: the cathode chemistry, so it makes up half of the
Speaker 4: ATHMI and battery on the energy have graphiede. That chemistry
Speaker 4: historically was seen as maybe not as a good option
Speaker 4: for evs for high power could of applications because it
Speaker 4: had a lower energy density. However, there've been significant improvements
Speaker 4: over the last few years that has enabled that chemistry
Speaker 4: to now be used more widespread. The alternative chemistry is NCM,
Speaker 4: which is nickel colbot manganese. That chemistry does have intrinsically
Speaker 4: higher energy density behind it. But we've seen this big
Speaker 4: advancement in how good LFP is and what that means
Speaker 4: is we're now seeing it really deployed across all vehicles,
Speaker 4: depending on if your small segment A class cheapest vehicles
Speaker 4: all the way through to the premium end in the
Speaker 4: Chinese market, and in China, you know, we see over
Speaker 4: eighty percent lfp SHA in evs outside of China is
Speaker 4: a bit of a different story, and maybe we can
Speaker 4: get into some details on that and a bit later.
Speaker 2: Those cells which are like a big book bo and
Speaker 2: of course now I don't know if it's the state
Speaker 2: of the art, but you know, we see it pretty
Speaker 2: much everywhere. It's what we call the three fourteen and
Speaker 2: power cell from COTL. Is it exactly the same blog
Speaker 2: who goes into a car and an ESS system? Or
Speaker 2: you see a divergence, you know, even if the chemistry
Speaker 2: says the same, how the form factor diverging.
Speaker 4: Yes, a big divergent. Historically, the energy storage market was
Speaker 4: really using the same cells you're using EV. It was
Speaker 4: almost acting as a bit of a surplus market whatever
Speaker 4: was leftover with fun of that towards storage. However, over
Speaker 4: the last few years, the storage market has become very
Speaker 4: dedicated in its cell design. So those three one, four
Speaker 4: and power cells you referred to are specific energy storage cells.
Speaker 4: In the EV market would see pretty different four factors
Speaker 4: being used, things like the BYD blade battery, which is
Speaker 4: the really kind of long thin battery pack which allows
Speaker 4: you to get high and density in a vehicle. Those three,
Speaker 4: one four empower cells and storage and now being pushed
Speaker 4: to the next level. We see five hundred and power
Speaker 4: plus cells entering production, and actually just a couple of
Speaker 4: weeks ago we saw byd announcer twenty seven hundred and
Speaker 4: ten and power cell. It's fun to see some huge,
Speaker 4: huge cells come through. How kind of practical that is
Speaker 4: in the real world is still a bit of a
Speaker 4: question mark, but that's definitely a big trend of scene
Speaker 4: is these cells are getting bigger and bigger dedicated to
Speaker 4: the storage market. And really the reason behind that is
Speaker 4: because one of the key ones is driving down cost
Speaker 4: because when you then put that into a containerized solution,
Speaker 4: you get much more energensity within your twenty foot container
Speaker 4: for example, but are less components, less other parts of
Speaker 4: the cell and starts to have big implications all cost.
Speaker 1: That's probably a good segue into talking about costs. So
Speaker 1: maybe could talk a little bit about what's happened at
Speaker 1: the cell level and also the pack level, which is
Speaker 1: over the last whatever eighteen months.
Speaker 4: Ultimately, let's if we talk about say the storage market
Speaker 4: and the eed market slightly individually. For we were to talk
Speaker 4: about cell prices. Essentially, cell prices have fallen significantly over
Speaker 4: the last few years. End of three twenty two was
Speaker 4: when we saw the highs. Really that's timed with when
Speaker 4: the liftium carbon lilyting hydroxyen price reached its highs. Since then,
Speaker 4: the raw material prices have declined significantly, reaching their current
Speaker 4: kind of floor. However, at the same time, we've also
Speaker 4: seen innovation happening at the cell at the system level,
Speaker 4: which is also driving down that cost decline that we've seen.
Speaker 4: So you have two huge drivers for cost decline coming
Speaker 4: through when we look at the system level costs. For example,
Speaker 4: for energy storage in the Chinese market, now we see
Speaker 4: projects which are going through seventy dollars killer what hour
Speaker 4: system costs. That price could have easily been three four
Speaker 4: times that a couple of years ago.
Speaker 1: And when you say seventy you're just talking about the
Speaker 1: battery practice, not.
Speaker 4: Including containerized AC solution plus installation in China. In the
Speaker 4: Middle East walls seen prices similar level to that. If
Speaker 4: we were to then compare that to say the US market,
Speaker 4: if you were to use say Tesla Megapak AC solution,
Speaker 4: you'd be looking over two hundred dollars.
Speaker 2: Because even you in your Motion Benchmark and Bloomberg everybody.
Speaker 2: We were making those predictions even three four years ago
Speaker 2: that would see those curves going down and going towards
Speaker 2: one hundred dollars tokilo when I were at eleven and
Speaker 2: five years earlier, we're at seventy At system level.
Speaker 4: Absolutely at that milestone, you've really just blew past it.
Speaker 4: At the cell level now, for an LFP cell in China,
Speaker 4: you know we hear prices from thirty to forty dollars
Speaker 4: kill a hour. So yeah, incredible strides that have been made.
Speaker 1: Can I twitch down to evs and talk a little
Speaker 1: bit about that, because what for me is interesting is
Speaker 1: just I'm obviously looking at two things. I'm looking at
Speaker 1: range of the cars. Does the range of the cars
Speaker 1: are getting better? And what you're also seeing is the
Speaker 1: costs of them are coming down. But when I listen
Speaker 1: to the prices you talk about, I cannot imagine that
Speaker 1: those prices are in the EV that I'm buying right now,
Speaker 1: or are they.
Speaker 4: We see some cheaper batteries going through to vehicles. I'd
Speaker 4: say the Chinese market more so than elsewhere. Those sort
Speaker 4: of low, really low prices that we are seeing would
Speaker 4: be typical of more storage cells. We see maybe some
Speaker 4: lower quality cells going in storage compared to the EV
Speaker 4: market in terms of how that translates to actual evs.
Speaker 4: One thing we do is we track, for say, the
Speaker 4: top fifteen vehicles for BEV and ICE in each market.
Speaker 4: What's the price differential that we're currently seeing. And in
Speaker 4: China we now see a four percent price of differential,
Speaker 4: So it's four percent cheaper to buy an EV in
Speaker 4: China compared to an ICE vehicle. If we then compare
Speaker 4: that to the US and the European market, in the
Speaker 4: US is forty four percent more expensive to buy an EV,
Speaker 4: and then in Europe it's eighty three percent more expensive
Speaker 4: to buy an EV right now.
Speaker 1: Eighty three percent more expensive? And is that still just
Speaker 1: because the automobile manufacturers have gone at the upper end
Speaker 1: of the market when they're bringing electric cars?
Speaker 2: Is that the reason?
Speaker 4: That's definitely a big cause of it. We asked some
Speaker 4: to see the entry of some smallest segment vehicles in
Speaker 4: the European market, but they still make up a pretty
Speaker 4: small market share and they still come in at the
Speaker 4: high price point.
Speaker 1: Can I ask then, what we saw on twenty twenty
Speaker 1: five towards the end of the year was we saw
Speaker 1: Volkswagen beginning to sort of shutter its production. I'm talking
Speaker 1: about EV production, and then I look at it and
Speaker 1: I sort of say, is this a Volkswagen problem or
Speaker 1: is this a problem with EV's In general? My own
Speaker 1: gut reaction would be, this is a problem with Volkswagen
Speaker 1: and they just don't have that costs in order, because
Speaker 1: I see, if I look what Buid is producing and
Speaker 1: I compare it to Volkswagen, I go, I'm not going
Speaker 1: to buy the Volkswagen, but I'd love to hear.
Speaker 2: Your view on it.
Speaker 4: When we look at European sales this year, broadly, they've
Speaker 4: been good. We're seen so last year penetration rate in
Speaker 4: Europe was twenty percent and this year we're expecting to
Speaker 4: finish the year at twenty six percent. And WIST noticing
Speaker 4: as well that last year we actually saw a decline
Speaker 4: in penetration rates. So really you're you're kind of comparing
Speaker 4: it to two years ago, and yeah, twenty six percent. Caution,
Speaker 4: vehicles being sold in the European market are electric right now,
Speaker 4: so progress is good. Compare that to the US, it's
Speaker 4: about ten percent. A lot more is really kind of happening.
Speaker 4: The key reason behind that is the EU policy. So
Speaker 4: this year was a step change year in CEO two
Speaker 4: emission policy. What that means is OEMs were required to
Speaker 4: sell a great number of evs in order to avoid fines.
Speaker 4: When we then put down the context of how different
Speaker 4: European OEMs are doing, we have certainly seen an uptick
Speaker 4: from vehicles coming from elsewhere. In the first half of
Speaker 4: the year, for example, just over a million evs were
Speaker 4: sold in Europe and twenty percent that was coming from China. Interestingly,
Speaker 4: that's actually a decline in market share compared to last year,
Speaker 4: and we saw about twenty five percent coming from China
Speaker 4: last year. You know, the volumes have been pretty strong.
Speaker 4: One thing to know, and I think that's one of
Speaker 4: the key things is Europe did introduce tariffs on Chinese
Speaker 4: vehicles last year, but those tariffs only imply to bebs.
Speaker 4: So we've seen a big uptick in plug and hybrids
Speaker 4: coming from Chinese players into the European market, and BYD's
Speaker 4: plug and hybrid's being one of the key ones there.
Speaker 2: That's a lot of information. Let me process it. So
Speaker 2: twenty five percent penetration in Europe, of which how many
Speaker 2: of those cars are producing Europe, how many of those
Speaker 2: cars are produced by European OEM but in China, and
Speaker 2: how much are pure Chinese? Do you have that split
Speaker 2: just in terms.
Speaker 4: Of once produced within Europe? A seventy percent in first
Speaker 4: half of.
Speaker 2: The year, So that's good. That's good.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and that was up from it averaged around sixty
Speaker 4: five percent over the last five years. That is a
Speaker 4: clear indicator that things like those tariffs are having an
Speaker 4: impact on that.
Speaker 2: Which brand are the best?
Speaker 4: So in terms of the top players in the EU,
Speaker 4: you've got VW leading the way year to date and
Speaker 4: they've actually sold basically the same amount in the first
Speaker 4: eight months of the year as what they've sold in
Speaker 4: the full year twenty twenty four. Next up you have
Speaker 4: BMW and there's a big differential. Bw's sold about three
Speaker 4: times more than BMW has year to date. And then
Speaker 4: next behind that you have Stilantus with just over two
Speaker 4: hundred thousand units in the first eight months of the year.
Speaker 4: Worth noting as well that Tesla in the first eight
Speaker 4: months of the year is currently coming in in eighth position,
Speaker 4: whereas last year for the full year, they were in
Speaker 4: second place, so big big draph hole there for Tesla sales.
Speaker 1: Can I ask you and how about bid on that list?
Speaker 4: P ID is coming in on tenth with just under
Speaker 4: one hundred thousand sales, which you know is quite a big
Speaker 4: step up because last year for the full year they
Speaker 4: did about half that. They have doubled in just the
Speaker 4: first eight months of the year.
Speaker 2: I see all the those new ships they have. In fact,
Speaker 2: they can export much more now because they own their
Speaker 2: own fleet. Okay, so that's Europe. Can we switch to
Speaker 2: the rest of the world. You know, before we look
Speaker 2: back into China, we hear that in the rest of
Speaker 2: the world is very strong and it's mostly Chinese. Would
Speaker 2: you see the same way, Yeah.
Speaker 4: For sure, definitely seeing the expansion of Chinese OEMs elsewhere
Speaker 4: in the world. If we look at South American markets,
Speaker 4: the Australian market, the rest of Asia, really start to
Speaker 4: see the dominance of Chinese players coming through there at
Speaker 4: the loss of other key players historically, particularly players at
Speaker 4: the Japanese and the Koreans, if historically had good market
Speaker 4: share in the ice market and places like Australia, they're
Speaker 4: really losing out to China. The EU manufacturers and you know,
Speaker 4: it's reflective as well in the chemistry split that we
Speaker 4: see coming through in the rest of the world, whereas
Speaker 4: Europe and the US we aren't seeing that much LFP
Speaker 4: come through yet because the Chinese influence is smaller in
Speaker 4: those rest of the world regions, we do see strong
Speaker 4: dominance of Chinese cells in there as well.
Speaker 1: I own it earlier in the year. What I did
Speaker 1: was I just went and had a look at the
Speaker 1: costs of production of say a bid against a Volkswagen.
Speaker 1: And what I've said I realized was just the cost
Speaker 1: advantage that BYD had. Where I'm coming from that is
Speaker 1: that surely means going forward that BYD is just going
Speaker 1: to continue in a market share going forward. Would you
Speaker 1: have a similar view with that or how would you
Speaker 1: think about this?
Speaker 4: It's something that we ran quite a lot of analysis on
Speaker 4: when the tarists were introduced, really to kind of see
Speaker 4: how much potential do these Chinese players have to absorb
Speaker 4: tarak cops essentially and still offer their products at a
Speaker 4: similar parts to what they may get from a traditional
Speaker 4: um The production costs come in a lot lower in
Speaker 4: terms of current price to the market. They are applying
Speaker 4: pretty big margins with within Europe, so the price differential
Speaker 4: that consumer sees isn't as significant as what you would
Speaker 4: see from the production side. I think the other thing
Speaker 4: to consider as well is just how things play out
Speaker 4: with tariff's strategy. Right now, there is this loopholeer of
Speaker 4: plug in hybrids. Whether that gets shots is a question mark.
Speaker 4: At the same time, you potentially there's talk now of
Speaker 4: Trump suggesting that Europe needs to impose one hundred percent
Speaker 4: tariff on China, on India or on other countries. If
Speaker 4: anything like that comes through, that could obviously then change
Speaker 4: the dynamic quite significantly, and given the tariff world that
Speaker 4: we live in these days, and nothing is really asked
Speaker 4: the question when it comes to potential variations.
Speaker 2: I read a lot about to go in the press,
Speaker 2: and the great thing is sources always well motion, so
Speaker 2: you can go back to the source. When it's come
Speaker 2: to China, the situation seems absolutely absurd. I read that
Speaker 2: they sell more IV in China than the old US market,
Speaker 2: So that's number one. But number two is the factory
Speaker 2: capacity that they have put together. Because we always talk
Speaker 2: about DYD and a few others, but you know, there
Speaker 2: are hundreds of brands and there's a price war, and
Speaker 2: of course byd say I'm going to survive, but the
Speaker 2: others are going to go down, especially the one who
Speaker 2: can't export. So I hear the capacity of fifty million
Speaker 2: cars in China or something like this, which is like
Speaker 2: three quarters of the world market every engine combined. So
Speaker 2: what's your take on what's going on in China because
Speaker 2: they clearly overbuilt.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, definitely things in China I think are accelerating.
Speaker 4: Furse don't really any analyst expectations. One thing I just
Speaker 4: did I look at for this cool because I was
Speaker 4: curious to see how it's changed in the last year
Speaker 4: or so. So currently this year, China penetration sits at
Speaker 4: about fifty percent twenty thirty. We're forecasting that to reach
Speaker 4: just under eighty percent. If we compare that to our
Speaker 4: forecast from Q one of last year, we were only
Speaker 4: expecting it to reach sixty five percent. So basically, over
Speaker 4: the last year and a half, our view of that
Speaker 4: Chinese market has accelerated so much because of how quickly
Speaker 4: things are moving and how commitments continue to be made
Speaker 4: on the policy side from the OEMs themselves, and also
Speaker 4: the cost advantages too. So there's really no stopping Chinese
Speaker 4: market growth at this point. There is definitely an element
Speaker 4: of oversupply, price wars, a lot of competition. We're going
Speaker 4: to see a lot of consolidation in the market for sure,
Speaker 4: But in terms of market growth, it seems to be
Speaker 4: a key pillar of China's next five year plan and
Speaker 4: they see it as a key industry for supporting that.
Speaker 4: So yeah, expecting strong growth to continue.
Speaker 1: Can I ask what's your view and the rest of
Speaker 1: the world then, are you upping your numbers there or
Speaker 1: downing them or how do you see that?
Speaker 4: The US one is the one which is probably the
Speaker 4: most shocking and understand not surprisingly so given the changing
Speaker 4: policy landscape that we've seen this year. We're comry sas
Speaker 4: about ten percent market share for bvs and plug and hybrids.
Speaker 4: By twenty thirty, we're now expecting eighteen percent market share,
Speaker 4: whereas comparing to that same T one twenty twenty four
Speaker 4: data point, we were expecting forty percent market share. So
Speaker 4: really in the US you've got two major things which
Speaker 4: are impacting that forecast, with the removal of the EV
Speaker 4: tax credit that's seven and a half thousand dollars tax
Speaker 4: credit and then also the changes for the EPA's standards,
Speaker 4: so the emission standards, that policy was historically quite strict
Speaker 4: in terms of what are required for people to sell.
Speaker 4: The removal lot can strip back of those is going
Speaker 4: to be a big one, along with CAFE standards, that
Speaker 4: CARB standards, various different emission related standards that the exist
Speaker 4: in the US that are already going to going away
Speaker 4: under the current administration.
Speaker 2: Seconds have decided to ncap the ev industry because their
Speaker 2: OEMs are struggling to convert and b they've got a
Speaker 2: lot of cheap oil. But there is clearly a divergence.
Speaker 2: You see China going on one side, and then some
Speaker 2: parts of Europe following quite fast, and as you said,
Speaker 2: some part of the rest of the world following because
Speaker 2: probably more at the expense of the Japanese than the
Speaker 2: German because there's a lot of segments that the Chinese
Speaker 2: are in and used to be taken over by the
Speaker 2: Japanese and the coins. Do you see those trends well
Speaker 2: established and going on like this till the end of
Speaker 2: the decade.
Speaker 4: Yeah, there's a lot of uncertainty in the market and
Speaker 4: we are increasingly seeing OEMs announced that they're going to
Speaker 4: where they had committed switching lines or building facilities dedicated
Speaker 4: to evs, calling back on those plans, pushing out the
Speaker 4: launch dates of various EV models. So the momentum has
Speaker 4: definitely been kind of switched off on the TV side.
Speaker 4: One thing that that's kind of a silver lining for
Speaker 4: the battery and where we're seeing a lot of activity
Speaker 4: is the storage market in the US market. Now, we've
Speaker 4: seen whole range of the Korean cell manufacturers who had
Speaker 4: EV capacity that have taken those lines and converted it
Speaker 4: and making energy storage cells, and they see it as
Speaker 4: a more stable demand market that will continue over the
Speaker 4: next five to ten years despite the policy environment, and
Speaker 4: they want to tap into the tax credits. So if
Speaker 4: that's what they need to do and they need to
Speaker 4: produce lfpe venergy storage, that's really where they're looking now.
Speaker 2: Allah. Thank you so much for the analysis of demand.
Speaker 2: Is there anything from the supply a goal that you
Speaker 2: want to share with us? Yeah?
Speaker 4: Yeah, just worth putting some context of Chinese dominance and
Speaker 4: supply chain is pretty useful. You know, we've spoken today
Speaker 4: a bit about the cell side, So when we think
Speaker 4: about cell production right now, but eighty percent of that
Speaker 4: in the Chinese market. When we think about LFP specifically
Speaker 4: that chemistry being use for energy storage and increasingly in evs,
Speaker 4: you're looking at kind of ninety eight ninety nine percent
Speaker 4: current market share that is going to start to change
Speaker 4: with some of those Korean players switching lines. When we
Speaker 4: then go a step even further kind of into the
Speaker 4: cathode and anode. For the cathode, you're looking at eighty
Speaker 4: seven percent Chinese dominance, and for LFP again ninety nine
Speaker 4: close to one hundred percent, and then for the anode
Speaker 4: as well, you're looking at ninety five percent Chinese dominant.
Speaker 4: So the key thing just from that is there's so
Speaker 4: much opportunity in this market, particularly in that midstream and
Speaker 4: kind of cell production area, and a lot of world
Speaker 4: that needs to be done still to really make that
Speaker 4: a much more global picture.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Look, with kind of wary of all the startups
Speaker 2: which have emerged the past five years to cut a
Speaker 2: lot of investment public money. Of course, every really saw
Speaker 2: loss world. In your opinion, does any of those startup
Speaker 2: as a chance considering the rate of technological advancement and
Speaker 2: price decline Not just this, but you know, we can
Speaker 2: conclude on sodia mayan or whatever you want, but it
Speaker 2: seemed that this LFP is a total jugger note and
Speaker 2: only a few people can honest it. Let's conclude with that.
Speaker 4: I hope, so I have very hope that there'll be
Speaker 4: some Western startup that will succeed. The real pathway that
Speaker 4: we're going to see more of going forwards is more partnerships,
Speaker 4: so people relying on Chinese or Korean Japanese know how
Speaker 4: working together and bring that technology across to your the
Speaker 4: North American market. And sodium mayan to sodiumn This is
Speaker 4: a chemistry which caught a lot of attention back in
Speaker 4: twenty twenty two when liftium price was very high. I
Speaker 4: would say now we still do see announcements trickling through,
Speaker 4: but at the current price of LFP cell, it's pretty
Speaker 4: hard for sodium mind to compete. There will be some
Speaker 4: use cases where you may see a good benefit, for
Speaker 4: example hybrid projects in China that are using sodium mine
Speaker 4: for their cold temperature benefit, but in terms of mass market,
Speaker 4: we're not really expecting that to come through anytime soon.
Speaker 2: Well, a Yerra, thank you so much for coming on
Speaker 2: the show. It looks like will us Jerad Look, it's
Speaker 2: always great and I want to tell our listeners Romotion
Speaker 2: and Benchmark and Chanelle, these are the best that are
Speaker 2: on this planet when it comes to what's happening in
Speaker 2: the battery sector and the EV sector. So really rely
Speaker 2: on those extraordinary research that you are conducting. Thank you
Speaker 2: so much earlier for coming on the shows. Job. That
Speaker 2: young lady is brilliant. I mean, she's really great.
Speaker 1: Absolutely. What I conclude from all of this is that
Speaker 1: evs are unstoppable, simplest that it's just a performance improvements.
Speaker 1: Cost reductions came over for internal combustion engine you know.
Speaker 1: And don't forget me wrong. Different regions are going to
Speaker 1: go at different rates. So the Chinese obviously are electrifying
Speaker 1: quicker than anybody. The Americans are probably doing it slower
Speaker 1: than everybody. But the reality is the rest of the
Speaker 1: world is going to follow you, I know.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, Look, I'm very worried about the US because
Speaker 2: there's been a decision by the current administration to knick
Speaker 2: up the industry, rolling back incentive tax credits, holding back
Speaker 2: any regulation, you know, like emission standards, and if you
Speaker 2: look at what's happening in the US. Okay, yes, There
Speaker 2: was a pop in the market in September, but it
Speaker 2: was because the end of the tax credit, and GM
Speaker 2: last month took a one point six billion charge due
Speaker 2: to a strategic pullback from its TV. We have the
Speaker 2: Nissan stopping living production in the US, going back to hybrids.
Speaker 2: There is a real divergence between the US and the
Speaker 2: rest of the world.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you are totally right around and by the way,
Speaker 1: it reminds me of let's imagine we are the turn
Speaker 1: of the twentieth century and eachurn a round and starts
Speaker 1: subsidizing the horse and cart. Got locked your app. That's
Speaker 1: a really great industrial strategy.
Speaker 2: It's a short term sugar high. But I don't really
Speaker 2: know what Europe is doing as usual that kind of
Speaker 2: in the soft middle. But what we've seen also recently
Speaker 2: is VW has announced fifty thou job losses and the
Speaker 2: market share of evs in the UK and Germany now
Speaker 2: is above thirty five percent. How much do we need
Speaker 2: to protect our industry versus editing chip Chinese cheap but
Speaker 2: good product through That's the big question and the answer
Speaker 2: is not simple.
Speaker 1: No, the answer is not simple, But I think the
Speaker 1: bottom line is the industry does need to restructure. There's
Speaker 1: no way around it. I mean, you're seeing peak internal
Speaker 1: combostion engine demand, you know that type of area. What
Speaker 1: happens is you consolidate, you focus on reducing costs.
Speaker 2: Et cetera, et cetera, and that's.
Speaker 1: You know, Europe is a huge industry within Europe, so
Speaker 1: no choice but to go that the next few years.
Speaker 1: And at the same time, if you want to compete
Speaker 1: globally in these new electric technologies, then you need to
Speaker 1: innovate as well. So not easy for your opinion industry.
Speaker 2: Well, in a certain way. The good news these batteries
Speaker 2: are becoming pretty cheap, so in fact, your hope is
Speaker 2: going to benefit from those cheap batteries. And even a
Speaker 2: lot of power chronics are becoming very ubiquitous. So whatever
Speaker 2: advanced China has, I think it's going to be relatively
Speaker 2: easier and easier between their quotes to catch. And at
Speaker 2: the same time in China, I mean, the story of
Speaker 2: over capacity is mind blowing. Of course, they're going to
Speaker 2: be consolidation and you just start to see cracks in
Speaker 2: the system. Last month, there is a Neo which is
Speaker 2: one of the company which has been really promoted as
Speaker 2: one of the new leaders, and they have been sued
Speaker 2: by BIC, which is the single post of Ring Fund
Speaker 2: for inflating revenues by six uld million dollars. So, I
Speaker 2: mean China, it's great, but also there are a lot
Speaker 2: of shenanigans.
Speaker 1: Yeah, where you tend to have poems are on, you
Speaker 1: also tend to have buss That's sort of a little
Speaker 1: bout what we're saying as well. Right, the Chinese approach
Speaker 1: is to actually have lots of competitors going out of markets,
Speaker 1: basically set animal spurts free and then best guys win, right,
Speaker 1: so you know what your left foot is the bids
Speaker 1: this world.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So look, it was a very interesting conversation. We
Speaker 2: thank Ayola for coming on the show. We really appreciate
Speaker 2: everything she does and moderately benchmarking their intelligence. The future
Speaker 2: is bright, but a lot of work needs to be
Speaker 2: done exactly. So thanks, it's great having you. Look forward
Speaker 2: to speaking to you soon. Thanks Ron speak next week. Cheers.
Speaker 3: Thank you for listening to Redefining Energy.
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