Speaker 1: What is up, fellow Siko's I am dant Valley coming
at you with my certified fantabuo as co host, mister Grant,
Who's We are onto the second part of our exercise
of will every NBA team be better or worse? Just
looking at their regular season win total. We pointed this
out with the Western Conference, it's the Eastern. Progress is
in binary in this case we are making it so
so will all of these teams win more games than
last season or fewer games? That's the only question we're
setting out to answer. Russell setting out to answer it
incredibly quickly because we have an ambitious agenda today, but
we always have time for this question. Grant, how the
heck are you doing?
Speaker 2: I'm excited for our ambition, and I'm also prepared to
go much shorter on all these teams because I did
not write these slides up like you did initially, so
my notes are not quite as comprehensive as they were
for the West.
Speaker 1: The other thing is is the existences in the Western Conference.
They are more binary, cut and dry, where it's this
team is this, this team is that. And so there
are a couple teams that I think we'll get into
and it's oh, we can see. But it's just it
all feels relative to the West, where there are as
of right now, fourteen teams that are actively not trying
to lose, and say thirteen if you think the Jazz
are gonna pull some you know, shenanigans and made up
body part injuries with their vets like so, it's just
it feels like this, this conference right now is made
to be quicker. I guess we'll find out.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll see. I do. I am going to resolve
to allow you to talk me out of my position
more often than for the West, because I was looking
back and I feel like I only caved like once
or maybe twice. But I'm going to be a lot
more suggestible this time around.
Speaker 1: Well, the other thing is that I might have defaulted
to you a couple week. We didn't differentiate on that.
We differentiated on the Pelicans, and I'm trying to think
of what other team we might think, The Kings. The Kings. Yeah, so,
but I wanted Kings fans to be mad at you
and rest assured they were, so.
Speaker 2: That happens no matter what. So well, actually it wouldn't
happen if I would ever say a good thing about
the Kings.
Speaker 1: But one of our loyal commenters, who's a Kings fan,
did say that Grant is growing on them, So oh, hey,
there you go. Take the dubs. All right, let's get
into that. I say we keep We did it fine
last time, Grant. I say we alternate and just pick.
We don't have to go in any sort of order
here there on the board if you're watching on screen,
and I will give you the first choice to throw
to me.
Speaker 2: Well, ironically, since we're going out of order, I'm gonna
make this pure chaos and then start in order and
go Atlanta Hawks first, just so nobody knows what to expect.
I guess. So again, thirty six wins last year, I
was kind of like, I guess, I was surprised when
I looked. I just didn't remember the Hawks being quite
that bad. So starting there, that's a fairly low bar,
I guess. I in my notes, and I'm just going
to go along with this, I start with a question
for you, and that is, do you think the de
Jonte Murray trade had anything to do with getting better
in the short term like AKA for this year? Or
was it? Or were there other factors? That's kind of
a loaded question. I feel like I know the answer,
but this is I think where we should start.
Speaker 1: No, I think it was just the fit between him
and Trey Young and the rest of the team really
wasn't working. De Jontaybury was over stretched on defense in Atlanta,
and it didn't seem like even with him being on
the like his contracted to me is a steal. That
four year, basically one twenty million dollar extension didn't seem
like there was a huge market for him. I will
say though, that more it does seem like there was
a little bit more to it that it was about.
To me, it was just about reorientation more than anything else. However,
it does seem and this is probably because their picks
the next three years are controlled by the Spurs that
they did place an emphasis on, like we need rotation
bodies after this, And so I look at that and say, Okay,
Larry Nance Junior might have always been included, but I
look at Dyson Daniels where it's like they probably could
have gotten more first round equity out of New Orleans
or another team, and it seems like they really valued
Dyson Daniels for the skill set of he will go out.
He will guard the other team's best player on most
nights as long as they're playing on the perimeter, and
they're probably gonna give him back up point guard minutes
at this point unless they're really ready to cut Kobe
Buffkin loose. So it feels like not that they were
trying to strout, they were trying to straddle the line
of the two. But to me, this wasn't about getting better.
This was about rectifying a misread that they had. And
I was kind of intout I would make it clear
I didn't. I thought the game up too much for
Dejante Murray, but I was a little bit more optimistic
on his fit with Trey Young. It just never ended
up panning out. And I'll say the two things that
I think are the driving forces of it is Trey
Young still has not adjusted his game nearly enough on
the offensive. And then just Dejontay Murray is not built
to be your best defensive player and your second or
first best offensive player.
Speaker 2: Yeah, whereas Daniels, like Daniels is a guy that should
be your best defensive player and is not going to
be saddled with the scoring obviously because he just doesn't
have that in his game yet the scoring burden that
Murray did. The reason I asked that question is because
I feel like there were iterations of the Murray of
a Murray trade that could have made the answer yes,
Like they could have made a move that was, you know,
not so much for picks, or a young guy and
Daniels and a you know, maybe a backup or I
guess on this team, a third string center in nance
that had they made that hypothetical deal that brought back
someone you know, roughly as valuable as Murray but at
a different position or whatever, it would have been easier
to say, oh, they'll just be better, right because thirty
six is not that many wins and they got somebody
that not only makes more sense, but is like just
a more established, better high impact guy right now. That
isn't how I view the trade. I think we view
it fairly similarly, so that gives me some pause. I
would say though, that like Jalen Johnson should be better.
I think Dyson Daniels the arrow is still going up.
I think a Yaka kong Wu the arrow is probably
still up. It's not like dramatically so as was the
case with like Johnson's breakout last year. But there's there's
enough in terms of projectable growth within this group that
I think I'm leaning better. I do wonder though, like
does a hypothetical Capella trade, Like what does that return?
Is that something they do to get off money? Is
that is it possible to trade him and get better?
You know if because you've got a Kong Wo on
that extension and theoretically Nance is gonna play and probably
should play a little bit at least as a backup.
So maybe there's some upside if you can turn Capella
into something. But ultimately it's like thirty six is not
a lot of wins. They have enough young guys, and
it does feel to me lastly that this is well,
maybe I'll ask you, do you think this is the
last sort of we're gonna take a crack at Trey
Young is the quick as this key guy, this sort
of version of the team. We're gonna go another full
year with Quinn Snyder. We disappointed ourselves last year. We'll
give it a run and then maybe reassess after this season.
So that like suggests they're gonna kind of, you know,
try to win as money games as possible that's kind
of how I look at it. Do you see it
that way?
Speaker 1: Yeah? I would agree, And I think I think we
might even be just overthinking it too, maybe because they're there,
it's a low number to begin with, and they're gonna
care enough to try and beat it, Whereas there might
be teams Washington, Toronto will get to Chicago like Brooklyn,
they'll be pivoting out of trying to win at some point.
And so because there are more teams that aren't actively
invested in winning, they'll be more wins available. But the
Trey Young stuff is interesting because we're getting at a point,
you know, after this season, he will have two years
left on his deal. Before his two years left on
his deal including a player options, like, we're in prime
extension territory with him, and if he's not gonna sign one,
if they don't want to give him one, even with
your two picks or three picks at that point, still
headed out to say, Antonio, if you include that draft
next summer, that's where you're gonna probably have to make
some decisions. But it also wouldn't shock me to see
this team. I don't want to say double down, but
to actually make a trade that comes with like to
get a wing or maybe a different like another type
of forward in there to that probably helps with their defense.
But maybe they also have some ballhand. They have a
bunch of stuff that they need. And by the way,
we have you mentioned Zachary Resiche. Yeah, that's tough here
because I don't know if he he should project to
be fine defensively and offensively. I think he's a good
fit because he just he'll run in transition, he'll play
off the ball. Maybe you can get him some minutes
where he'll be able to handle the ball more. I mean,
like I said, you don't have a true backup point
guard unless you like Kobe Bufkin or Dice and Daniels
there So, but the level of experimentation with him or
investment in him are you either are you gonna start
sitting him or cap his role because you're trying to
win forty two games or are you really gonna see
this through? And also you're not super deep on the
wings anyway, so you might as well play him. But
I just I come back through the numbers low. There
are other teams in the East that are gonna be
less invested in winning, and so I think even if
it's a matter of getting thirty seven wins, I think
they get there.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's right. It really just that thirty
six is an easy number to be if you have
a guy who's been an All Star multiple times in
Trey Young, all right, you're turn to.
Speaker 1: Pick getting us back on a time track. I'm gonna
go to the Brooklyn Nets because I feel like this
should be an easy one. They only won thirty two
games last year, but they've now traded mcal Bridges. But
if we go back and map out the Kevin Durant
trade tree for them, do they end up with like
thirty seven first round picks? And if they haven't traded
Cam Johnson yet, they might get more first round picks
for him.
Speaker 2: Yeah. No, thirty two Actually, I mean thirty two is
I guess a quote unquote low total. But like, if
this team gets out of the teams, I think I
would be surprised. So, yeah, you said it. No Bridges,
And between Cam Johnson and like Finny Smith and whoever else,
they are clearly more likely to be sellers than buyers.
And I think the last thing is in the interest
of kind of blowing through a fairly one to my mind,
this was the twenty third ranked offense in the league,
and I think there's a great chance that they are
significantly worse than that this season.
Speaker 1: They just we're gonna see what's the over under. This
is the conversation to have if we can spend like
a minute or two on them, what's the over under
on the number of shot attempts? Or what's the over
under on Cam Thomas's usage rate? If I said it,
it's thirty one? Are you're taking me over the under?
He might've even been close to there last.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you might need to go higher than that.
You might need to go like James harden twenty eighteen
usage rate to get what he's.
Speaker 1: Okay, his usage rate was thirty point five, So I'm
going over that's like, that's a pretty like I hit
it at least spot on. I'll just take over.
Speaker 2: Then, yeah, just like yeah, no, I mean, like, and
that's it. That's the thing. Like it might be exciting
every fifth game when he like wins them a game
by going for forty eight on you know, thirty two
shots or whatever. You know, he can be more efficient
than that, but like ultimately can't. He's kind of a
perfect like tank commander in that like he's just gonna
get buckets. And if you play him a huge in
a huge role over a large sample of minutes, like
the bottom line will be a negative. You know, even
if he sort of does what we expect him to
do offensively. He's kind of a perfect guy for that.
Speaker 1: I am excited though hopefully they'll try because he made
incremental improvement that might be a little bit generous, But
can you like improve his playmaking like they have the roster,
just experiment with it. Also, just give give Nicholas Claxton
the ball and like let him run inverted picking rolls.
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, give him the Jaron Jackson season where it's
just like dry a bunch of stuff and see if
you can do it, because eventually, if we're good again,
that'll be a bonus.
Speaker 1: I'm kind of just excited from a productive chaos perspective
because Sean Marx is back in his bag of we
don't we well now they have their own picks, but
like he's back in his bag of the team. That
was the most fun in Brooklyn was when him Kenny
Akinson were there. They didn't have any of their own
picks at the time, but they were just rebuilding from
the ground up and they knew how to experiment and
hit there. So I am fascinated by the team. But
this isn't a question. They were going to win fewer
than thirty two games.
Speaker 2: I agree, all right, I would like to select the
Orlando Magic because this was one that I struggled a
lot with, partly because I went through this in my
notes and did it alphabetically, and I got to Orlando,
which is like the fourth to last team, and I
looked back up and I was like, I got almost
everybody getting better. So some somewhere I got it's kind
of like when you're doing over unders and you end
up with like two hundred more total wins than you
should have. I started to feel that way right around here.
So forty seven last year, like i'd say, a mildly
surprising but not shocking level of growth over the year before,
just because of the youth on the roster. You know,
it was foreseeable that Orlando would get a lot better.
I just think maybe I'm getting to the point where
I have too many teams improving, not sold. We love
the KCP acquisition, However, I think we both agree that
it kind of wasn't It was disappointing that it wasn't
enough on its own because what they need and this
is really your take that I'm that I'm hijacking, like
you needed more of a guy who's going to create shots,
like a facilitator, a floor general like that kind of thing.
So maybe maybe we've overvalued the KCP addition to some extent.
And I'm looking too poke holes because I want to say,
I'm gonna say worse. And maybe that's forty six wins,
and I realize how crazy that seems because they made
such a leap and there's so much youth here. I
just you know, maybe Jonathan Isaac's not as healthy. Maybe
I don't know, Jalen Suggs regresses as a shooter. I'm
just looking for ways because I do think sometimes when
a team makes a jump like this, there's a little
bit of pullback, kind of like what people expected from
the Thunder last year. Which that's a terrible example, because
if Orlando goes the Thunder route, they're gonna win four
hundred games. But can I talk you into that at all?
And I'm very much prepared to be talked out of
this because on its face, it's kind of wild to
say a young team's gonna get worse.
Speaker 1: I would frame it this way, shock me if they
won fewer than forty seven games. But I think you
because you're looking at the landscape of the East and
the teams that are in front of them, I would
say all of them are still going to be in
front of them, because like Milwaukee and Cleveland didn't have
the best health and they still finished with more wins
than the Magic. The Knicks got better, and the Boston's
just Boston. So you have Indy, I would say, and
then Philly as the teams below of them. That's like, oh,
we could envisioned both of them winning more games, healthier
Tyres Haliburt and him and Siakam getting to go through
a training camp together. I'm still going to go better,
I think because the stuff that you laid out, it
all makes sense. But like, are we really going to
predict that everything goes wrong, that Jalen Subs regresses as
a shooter, that Ben Caro gets even less efficient or
doesn't improve his efficiency, that KCP doesn't do anything to
help the floor spacing. And I keep coming back to
this is that they had the second best defense in
the league last year, and that defense got better yea
with Kennavis called low Pope. And so even if their
offense is still not up to snuff, I still look
and here's the things that the three things that sell
me on the offensive end is that Pallo evolving and
becoming more efficient, Froanz Wagner not shooting zero percent from
three or whatever it was on jumpers. Really, although he
did play in the Olympics, is he going to be
taught like he's played a lot of basketball lately. And
then Jalen Suggs continuing to get better at least staying
on the same track. So even if you think all
those things aren't gonna happen, at least one or two
of them probably is. Because these are talented players. They're
not no names. And the other thing that I don't
think we can discount here is even if they don't
want to go bigger game hunting, there's just a variable
level of moves they could, Like, if they want to,
I think they can go out right now and trade
for LaMelo Ball. They have a package that could get
them that. But they could also be like, well, you know,
we're more interested in and Frey Simon's or Colin Sexton
or Malcolm Brogden. They can do all of those things
and just get exponentially better to varying degrees, of course,
and I think they will at some point make a
move unless they're way better than expected, in which cases
isn't even a conversation anymore.
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, I think I think you swayed me. I
just as a general practice is probably not a good
idea to start from the premise of I need to
decide how to make say this team will be worse
and then reverse engineer from there. But you are going
to need to talk me out of somebody being better,
because I don't know what your board looks like. But
I got way too many teams getting better right your.
Speaker 1: Time, as they didn't like go that deep into it.
But by the way, I think everything you said is
just perfectly valid and the thing I would worry about,
like Jealen Sugs and Franz Vadner are very good, but
there's still an iffiness for me to them on the
offensive end, and so we'll just we'll see how it
pans out. But the magic one and they got better,
like just objectively on paper, the Isaac health stuff is
good because he wasn't like playing a ton of minutes
last year, and yet it's well, can you count him
to play that much? But if you can roll if
in the minutes that you play, Suggs, Isaac and Kentavious
called bo Pope together, good luck fucking scoring. Yeah. As
the other team, Oh it's my turn, I'm like waiting
for you to like bisc doing anything. I'm actually I
don't know if this team will be quick. But let's
go to the Chicago Bulls Grant.
Speaker 2: They don't know if it will be quick.
Speaker 1: They won last year. They won thirty nine games, which
I just assume was their goal because like, that's that's
what the Bulls do.
Speaker 2: Mission accomplished. We did it.
Speaker 1: DeMar de Rosen and Alex Caruso are gone, and incomes
Josh Giddy, incomes Jalen Smith, Andre Drummond gone. That doesn't
get that, like that's another player they probably should have
gotten some seconds for, and they just you know, decided
to let them leave uh grant better or worse. And honestly,
if I could hijack it, I wouldn't say what they're
doing is competent at the moment, but I do think
it at least suggests they are looking at the bigger picture.
I don't know if they have the right angle, because
literally the two biggest losses that they had they went
about it. I would have prioritized picks rather than Josh Giddy.
I would have done something to my books. Is it
stretched the mellow ball? Involve a third team? Why are
you getting the twenty thirty one Sacramento Kings pick swap
when you're giving up tomar derozen because your books were
structured improperly?
Speaker 2: Fix it right? Because they didn't want to take on
Harrison Barnes, basically right like that was that was they
didn't want that money, which is like insane, like that
month taking on that money would have been worth way
more than worth it to get that pick. So I'm
going worse. This was not that easy for me. I
think the crucial question that you kind of touched on
is is, like, do the losses of Caruso, de Rozen
and Drummond, which are like not like not insignificant, can
those be offset at all by Zach Lavine playing more,
by Patrick Williams playing more by maybe Kobe White getting
a little better by maybe I would assume move getting
a little better by maybe Modus Bizellis being like a
positive impact rookie. Probably probably not like that would be
all those things would have to go right for the
Bulls to like just break even, and then we're still
looking for ways to like, how are they gonna be
better than they were last year? I don't, I don't
really see it. I think that they're sort of embracing
reality and acting a little more sane in the way
that they're building the team, which means that they will
trade Vucevic and Levine if they can. They're not going
to go target someone that's going to try. You know,
they're not going to chase this thirty nine to forty
three win range. I don't think so. I like, I
don't know what the number would have had to been
for me to say better, Like if it was thirty
three thirty four, I could see them accidentally winning more
than that. But just because I think, like White's good,
what's a good player like Patrick Williams might be a
helpful player, Like they have those balls.
Speaker 1: Just healthy and playing for them too, need the driver
of their success. Back in twenty he was at twenty one,
twenty two, so he was a primary driver, there was
obviously other factors involved, So I just think I don't
trust them, But I I like, even if they let
everyone stay on this roster, the pathway to them being
better is just feels too difficult. To thirty nine wins
when you look at this roster is a lot. And also,
I do think having Josh Giddy immediately mitigates the value
of so many like of Kobe White not gonna use
his many on ball looks probably, And if you think
they're gonna figure out a way to make it work
with him, okay, with an Io disson Wu or Zach
Lavine or Patrick Williams is good like or modest buzzellis like,
you're not gonna have the same level freedom and experiment
on offense. I don't trust that they're gonna end up
moving all these guys. But if if we're running this team,
it's not just give Zack Lavine up. By the way,
you know what would completely make me do a one
to eighty on the Lakers offseason, even if this happens
in the middle of the years, that if they just trade
salary filler and no picks for Zach Lavine, I'll end
up being like you know what, they fuck perfectly and
aside though they should be moving Kobe White and Io
dis Soon MoU h and Patrick William should absolutely be
on the block once he's trade eligible, because the value
specifically of White and dis Soon moo, it's never gonna
be higher than it is right now because they're gonna
sign more expensive contracts at some point. Neither of them
are making enough to be extended. Even in sort of
this extension happy market right now, they're gonna win fewer,
and I guess that's a vote like Bulls fans should
be happy about that because, by the way, they have
an incentive if they're not let's say they're not on
a thirty nine like, if they're not on a thirty
nine win pace and able to get in the plane,
they're gonna want to lose because they owe that pick
to San Antonio with top ten protection next year. So
I honestly think I'll frame it this way. I think
they're more likely to be closer to the teams than
they are to thirty five wins.
Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, I could. I mean that should be the goal,
right like that, that should be the hope and the
goal that they're down there like flirting with the bottom three,
bottom four record at the end of the year. All right,
let's go all the way to Yeah, that's too easy,
let's say let's save that for later. I would like
to nominate the Milwaukee Bucks forty nine wins a year ago,
and I would just befo. I'm gonna throw to you
for the leadoff prediction here with a stat that I'm
sure you're aware of. When Milwaukee's best four guys were
on the floor together last year, Lillard, Jannis, Middle and
Lopez plus sixteen point three. That's a stupid net rating.
That's like Jokic, you know, with the starting five net
rating type of thing for Denver. And it was a
huge positive actually in two of the three cases, even
higher than plus sixteen point three per hundred. Whether it
was Malik Beasley as the fifth guy, whether it was
Andre Jackson Junior as the fifth guy, whether it was
Patrick Beverly, all three of those guys when playing with
the other four, like, there's a plus twenty something in there,
there's a plus thirty something in there. I think Gary
Trent Junior can handle that fifth spot as well or
better than all three of those guys. So this comes
down to how often can that unit be on the floor,
and Doc Rivers, going back to the Clipper days, just
loves to play his best guys together all the time
and just tank in those reserve minutes. I think this
is a team that's kind of set up to just
bank huge with like positive margins with those guys out there.
Health questions abound. But are you saying better or worse.
I'm obvious he's gonna say they're gonna be better, But
I would agree.
Speaker 1: With you, and I don't really have anything to add
other than like, I think that they can get to
a point where they're staggering and still being fine too,
like some of the minutes where it's like if you
don't have Brook Lopez on the court, like they had
some lineups that really killed, and so I think they
can get the different situations. I do worry about Chris
Middleton's ankles. It is just on this weird trend where
it's like he gets injured, it takes them a while
to ramp up, and then he's really good just in
time for them going to lose early in the playoffs,
and so that's something to monitor. But the other thing
I don't think you mentioned this, unless I missed it,
maybe a little shot like thirty three percent on catching
shoot threes last year. You don't think he's not getting better.
That is never gonna happen again. And so now you
get to go through another training camp with him and
Giannis and he's more settled than Milwaukee. He's talked a
lot about the mental toll of moving. You can make
fun of him for it if you want, but that's
like a real thing and it shouldn't be as big
of a factor this year. The thing with this team,
by the way, they did slick work on the margins.
Forget even just even before they had Gary trans Junior,
getting Torriy and Prince and Delon Wright absolutely just massive
wins for the organization. I don't know how you feel
about their draft. I wasn't super high on it, but
like getting players who can contribute now, Dlawn Right, Tory,
prison Gary tren Junior all fill rotation spots like they
can play in a playoff rotation, I would argue, so
I think they'll better. They should be in the fifties.
And look, they have the cushion because we saw it
last year for some of their guys to miss time,
and they'll they'll still they're still get there. I do
worry about the lack of overall athleticism on this team
now in point of attack, defense is probably still going
to be an issue even with Gary Trent Junior, because
I assume that like Delon Wright can probably handle it,
but you are conceding a lot offensively at that point,
So they do have some questions to answer. But like
this team, if they're even relatively healthy, I would just
think that they're going to have like fifty two to
fifty three wins.
Speaker 2: Yeah, if you're gonna say they're gonna be worse, it's
got to be based on Middleton is just like this
is finally the injury that Middleton just can't overcome, Like
he can't even be effective in short since and that
Lopez who was kind of approaching the cliff it felt
like at times last year, really like go all the
way over it at his age. I just I'm with you.
I think I think there's enough top end talent and
just like, yeah, the heist of Trent Junior, right, Prince
and Portis are like a pretty narn good six seven
eight in terms of rotation pieces. So I think I
think there's more than enough here to get over fifty.
Speaker 1: It is my turn to pick for you, uh who
don't want to pick? I honestly, this team confuses the
hell out of me. So we're gonna go to the
Miami Heat.
Speaker 2: Oh good. Yeah, this was a really hard one for
me too.
Speaker 1: Forty six wins, right, I forgot.
Speaker 2: It's like it didn't seem like last year was such
a like failure for them, and then you look for they.
Speaker 1: Actually won more games than they did the year that
they made it to the finals. Then look, they had
stuff going on. The Kayla Martin, who's gone not fully healthy,
Jimmy Butler dealt with stuff, Terror's year was injured by
the end of the year, Tyler hero missed time list
continues to go on. I just I don't know how
to square away with what they did. I thought they
hit a home run with keeping Hayward Highsmith at the
money they did, but they did lose Kayleb Martin. Everyone
loves Coyle Way and is very high on him. Hawks.
I just I have no idea what to make of
this team right now.
Speaker 2: I kind of orlandoed this one too, where I was
just looking for teams to get worse, and I am
going to say that the heater gonna get worse if
that happens. I think it's like forty four forty five wins,
which should not feel like an affront because, like you said,
they were down lower than that two years ago when
they made the finals, So that doesn't foreclose on the
possibility that they just you know, go on a run.
But like so you you mentioned Martin, I think that's
a that's a significant loss if you were going to
say they're going to be better, right like because he
was hurt last year, and I think Kyle Lowry's departure
is like not nothing. I think Tyler Hero, how many
games is he going to play? Missed half the season
last year? Jimmy Butler played sixty. Is Jimmy Butler at
the point where you cannot feel confident in saying, oh,
he'll play more than sixty games, Like, I don't know,
I think.
Speaker 1: That contractor or Jimmy Butler maybe.
Speaker 2: Maybe yeah, maybe, But then that cuts the other way too,
of like how pissed off is he gonna be? Like probably,
since it's him, he means he's gonna play really well,
but he's just got the mileage of someone that, like,
I don't know, it's sixty games. If you get over
under sixty games played for Jimmy Butler, are you taking
the over I'll think the over all, right, I'm not
that good.
Speaker 1: I think the bigger issue is will he just be
as good right as No, he's gonna be thirty five
when the season tips off, that is not That is
not young, folks speaking as a thirty five year old
that ain't young. So I like, that's a question. I
do think if Bam is really like into the three
point volume, I'm not saying taking five attempts a game,
but like just comfortable spacing out to the corners, I
think you can get to some insuring lines with him
and coleel Ware, who from what I saw of his
Rookie League film, like that he might end up being
a monster defensively, and like that just might be the
pathway to getting the better units we've seen them experiment
with kind of dual bigs in the past. I'm not
saying that's the only recipe for them to get there,
but I could envision them being better. If you tell
me Tyler heroes healthier Bam is shooting threes. Harry Roziers
lasting the whole season. Okay maybe, and the alb Burk
signing was good at the minimum, but you have to
go worse here. It's just not like they lost a
very valuable rotation piece and they just don't have like, hey, okay,
you have him Hawkis, but is he gonna do enough
for you offensively to just you're not gonna miss Kayla
Martin at all. Or and even if Imy Hawkins was
getting better, it wasn't just like you had depth to
spare or beck to the depth to spare at that point.
So it's a tough number. It wouldn't shock me if
they won forty seven forty eight, but I think too
many things need to break right for them to get there.
And I will say I continue to like even they
have Tyler Tyler Hero, they have Terry Rozier, or they
have Bam, they have Jimmy, I just know so many
questions about.
Speaker 2: Their offense, right, Yeah, pretty high variance, Like they could
win fifty four games and you'd be like, yeah, okay,
well that I guess Yovich popped and I guess Hawkes
actually did continue to get better. Maybe high Smith like
solidify and like proves he's actually that kind of a
three point shooter. But yeah, it really is just like
there's too many like if he like make or break
things that have to go right to get over to
get to forty seven, Like that's not a low total.
So I'm uncomfortable with it, but I'm glad we kind
of got to the same spot there, and I think
it's my turn. Okay, let's we got to start picking
off some of these really low totals. Let's do the
Detroit Pistons a whopping fourteen NBA basketball victories last season,
just quick, Like, overlook here, it is really hard to
be that bad twice in a row unless you're the
process sixers, and Detroit is not taking that kind of approach.
I don't think it doesn't seem that way based on
how they've transacted now new management. You never know, we
talked several times about how like Thistru, this new power
structure is not married to any of these picks except
for the most recent one. So like, you know, if
you are concerned about getting a year from now to
the point where it's like what do we do with
Jalen Duran and Jade and Ivy extension wise, like maybe
you do look to move those guys. I don't know
that that's the right move yet, but that's on the table.
Speaker 1: It also doesn't can if I can interact, moving those
guys doesn't make you worse.
Speaker 2: It might not, it might not. Yeah that's the thing.
Uh so I'm going better. Uh just like I kind
of like the Beasley ad, the Harris ad. I think
Paul Reid helps get a full season of Simoni Fontechio,
Kay Cunningham arrived, I think can continue to get better.
Fourteen is just so low right, like you just they're
gonna be better than that.
Speaker 1: And if they're not, I'm curious as to like what
it's what what are the moves or the nightmare scenarios
in which they're worse. I guess Kay gets injured again
and yeah, like Jay Nivy doesn't develop and you're suddenly
you just don't really have anyone to run the offense.
I think why also think they're gonna be better? Is
they just have I'm not super I don't say I'm
not super high. I guess I'm not super intune like
what this roster is supposed to actually accomplish, but like
you can get to some really interesting defensive line if
you want to play a Star Thompson and Ron Holland
together and hopefully a sar Thompson's healthy after dealing with
those blood clots. And the other thing is okay, we
talk a lot about the redundancies of some of the
main play like a sar Thompson, Ron Holland, even Jay
and Ivy and the ball dominant or the lack of
shooting there. They have spacing on this team. Now they
got Molik Beasley, they brought into Bias Harris, who could
still be a floor spacer. You still have Isaiah Stewart,
Simoni Fontachio you resigned. You have Tim Hardaway junior, who's
gonna take a bunch of shots you don't want him to,
but in theory he will space the floor. So I
think the fact that you can get to lineups more
easily where it's Caid plus at least three shooters, then
I feel like you're just gonna win closer to twenty
something games by virtue of that.
Speaker 2: And not just for Cunningham. But like you know, this
is a very this is very much to me approve
it season for Jay and Ivy and you can I
mean he's he's like less so than Caid, Like he's
someone that you got. You put Beasley out there with
I don't know, Beasley Harris or Beasley Fontechio beef stew
Like there's he needs the shooting because like the only
real NBA skill. He's shown his the ability to get
to the basket quickly, and if you can space the
floor for him, maybe you set him up to succeed
so you can at least although this has kind of
been the theory of the Pistons for a couple of
years now of like let's get veterans of space because
it'll help our non shooting guards and our and our
shooting guards. I think it just makes a little more sense.
It's easier for me to see it like kind of
functioning how they've intended this year. But again, this is
all like they're not gonna win thirteen games, which is
what you'd have to believe for you to go lower.
So this is just better by default.
Speaker 1: This is I mean, yeah, that's an easy one, my
turn for you. I think this one's a well, it's
a more interesting one. I don't know if it's an
easy one. But the Charlotte Hornets are coming off twenty
one victories, mister Grant Hughes, I have them penciled in
as better in part because I think that people forget
that they have competent NBA players on the roster. It's
just they were so injured the past couple of years.
And unless you think that they're also going to trade
lamellow Ball and or Miles Bridges, what is the pathway
aside from if you want to predict a catastrophic or
over significant level of injuries. Okay, fine, go ahead and
do that. Like, they just have a lot of NBA
players if you go into their rotation, and I did.
I recorded something on the hornet specifically a couple of
weeks ago, so I thought about it. They have just
a bunch of NBA players across like ten spots. Probably
I mean LaMelo, Brandon Miller, Josh Green, Miles Bridges, Mark
Williams is probably your starting lineup. I actually think Josh
Green is overrated in the sense that I don't like
his contract and a lot of people don't seem to
care about it. And Charlotte kind of treated them like
not an asset but a flyer. But then off the bench,
Vasili Amicich, Seth Curry, Cody Martin who if he's healthy,
goddamn Grant Williams who played well for them, Nick Richard's
solid backup big and what does t John Salon turn into?
And they also do have Trade Mann, He's always had
some wiggle to him. If they're healthy, I don't know.
I'm gonna definitely say that they're gonna be a team
that contends for the play in, but you also just
don't have the sample size to go off of. They
turned over their roster at the deadline. Even just looking
at players who are on their roster all season, LaMelo Ball,
Brandon Miller, Mark Williams and Miles Bridges played a whopping
seven possessions together without Terry Rozier or Gordon Hayward on
the floor. And so it's just like, we don't have
the sample of this team to go off of, which
I think works in their favor because they weren't terrible
last year while having everyone they were terrible. I'd look,
LaMelo is the thing that ties it all together. And
if you want to read into small samples again, Terry
Rozier minutes and Gordon Hayward minutes are taped into here,
LaMelo ball, Mark Williams, Miles Bridges, and Brandon Miller last
year plus twelve point one points per one hundred possessions
as a net rating, and they only played I think
it was one hundred and twenty or whatever it was.
So like, there's just the baseline of a competent team here,
and I, you know, I tend to be higher on
the mel than consensus. If he's just gonna be healthy
and you get progress from Brandon Miller, I think this
is a team that will probably make the play.
Speaker 2: In Yeah, I think I would have said better even
if you'd told me LaMelo's going to play thirty games,
just because you got Mark Williams played nineteen, Cody Martin
played twenty eight, Josh Green wasn't there, Brandon Miller was
a rookie in a role that was way bigger than
anyone expected him to have to play with that level
of experience, the fact that LaMelo probably will play more
than thirty games, and just it's you know, I don't know,
I don't know how confident I'd be going quite as
high as like, oh, they're a playing team, but it's
more likely to me that they are a playing team
than they're in the twenties. How about like I think
they're getting to thirty in their sleep.
Speaker 1: Here's the thing, there's going to be an accidental playing
team in the sure because Brooklyn, Washington, Detroit, and I'm
gonna throw Chicago in there, like, those are teams that
aren't going to be interested in doing it. And so
if you're Toronto or Charlotte and you want to take
the lot like what he's making the play in right.
Speaker 2: Nothing you can do about it, whether you want to
or not, you're gonna be in there. Yeah, I think
that's right. I think that's right. Okay, that was fairly
easy for me. Well you mentioned him, Let's go Toronto
because that's another team that's projected pretty low. Here. I
so twenty five wins for the Raptors last year. This
is another one that like, I was kind of shocked
that the total was that low. Maybe I shouldn't have been,
but I just didn't remember them being quite that bad.
I I you know, I guess they were very much
like two different teams last year. So that's part of it.
And in fact, UH just filter the basically season performance
to after mid February. So let's just say you know,
basically post trade deadline, kind of post All Star break territory,
worst point differential in the league for Toronto. So H
does and also know Scotty Barnes at that from I
think almost all of that right. I forget exactly when
he went out, but but that was that was a
big deal.
Speaker 1: So between him and Jalen Johnson missing games, I was
a bummer for my most improved player battles.
Speaker 2: Most improved really went through it last year. It really struggled.
So maybe does Barnes Maybe here's the question, does Barnes
being back healthy with this kind of revamped you know
quickly Barrett Grady Dick's gonna play more? Does that make
enough of a difference to take what was the worst
point differential in the league for you know, two months
and get you over twenty five wins? I think so
I And again like their incentivized to not win a
lot of games. I just don't know how you steer
into the skid that hard to get down to twenty
four because I do think there's a fair amount of
talent on this roster, and a lot of it actually
I think should get better. So where are you on them?
Speaker 1: Yeah? I went with better as well, and it actually
when I went into this, I thought they were gonna
be harder, but it was just like I looked at
the minutes they played with Barnes, Quickly, RJ and Yaka
Pertl last year they outscored teams by eleven point five
points per one hundred possessions.
Speaker 2: That's a good lineup.
Speaker 1: That's a good lineup, and I have questions about the
entire rest of their roster. I've come around on Grady
Dick with the clothes that he had to this season.
I don't know how much they're gonna lean under Kobe Walter.
What does Bruce Brown's role look like it feels like,
and how much is Kelly I'd like to see him
get to lineups like even space here lineup for Kelly
Olynyk is playing, but are those gonna hold up defensively?
So I basically have questions about everyone outside of their
top four, but like just having those top four together
and then you know, Scotty Barnes is gonna get better.
I think at least one of Quickly and Barrett will
continue to improve. And if you buy into the shooting
and or finishing improvement of Barrett in Toronto. It's kind
of hard not to go over. My My concern would be,
does this become a team that decides, well, we're not
good enough to do anything special. The only person we're
actually married to on this roster is Scottie Barnes and
so oh look, Emmanuel Quickly's on the trade block in
January or something to see. So I just haven't ruled.
I would bet against it, just because the way they
prioritize Quickly in Barrett in the Ananobi trade. But I'm
also like, I don't think they're bolted down to anyone
except Scotty Barnes on this roster, and that if you're
Yaka Pearl. Of course, if you're Bruce Brown, but if
you're em Manual Quickly, if you're r. J. Barrett, I like,
I think they would move them if they were offers,
like reasonable offers out there there for them.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I think another factor that we kind of touched
on for several other teams is just like if you're
if the Raptor's intention was to be like exceptionally bad,
that has to start at game one because the competition
for being that bad is pretty fierce between like the
Washington's even the Detroits, the Brooklyn's and we have to
include West teams too because we're just talking about lottery odds,
like you know, the Blazers are going to be terrible, Utah,
who knows, but could steer into it. Well, Toronto's a
little bit like that to me, because I mean a
little bit because like there's scenarios where you know, we
get it's like I don't know, it's mid December and
Toronto's like sixth in the east or something like you
know that that would be they'd be like, you know,
way over their heads at that point and no one
would expect that to continue. But but they could find
themselves in a position where it's like, man, we are
like we got to do something and I don't know
what that trade is or what who you shut down
to get a lot worse on purpose? And how much
sort of patients that would there would be for that
from guys like Barns and Quickly and whatever, guys that
think like, hey, I got a real roles now, like
it's my time, Like I want to show out. You're
telling me I gotta shut it down? Like that wouldn't
go over well. But they're they're just too good and
they would have to try to the tank effort would
be like too egregious for this team for them to
get under twenty five. I think so, I think we're
in agreement there on on the over or better let's do.
Speaker 1: I think this will be an easy one. Let's go
to Boston coming off just a monster sixty four win campaign,
and again we're talking binary wins and losses regular season only.
They will probably be my pick to win the title.
They're not winning sixty four games again, and I think
you could point if you actually want to get into
an argument about it, There's two things that I'm going
to rest on. Porzingis probably isn't going to be playing
a bunch before twenty twenty five, and so that has
a trickle down effect on your big man rotation. You're
relying on Luke Cornett for more minutes in the middle
of the season. You're lying on Nimus Cada for more
minutes in the middle of the season. The other thing,
so you just come off this championship run, granted it
wasn't a super fatiguing championship run, but like now you
have Jason Tatum, Derek White, Andrew Halliday are all on
the Olympic roster that is going probably as we record this,
they've not played the game to get to the gold
medal round, but they're probably going there. That's just a
lot of basketball for all these guys. And the other
thing is is, Okay, you won sixty four getting into
sixty fives, that's a lot of victories.
Speaker 2: Well that's just like, yeah, I probably should have looked
this up, but like, what percentage of NBA teams historically
have won sixty five or more games in a season.
It's like vanishingly small. It's really really hard to be
that good over a season, I think, especially after the
strain of the long playoff run and the difficult summer
and stuff. So you kind of get into the non
analytical like maybe a little championship hangover, maybe a little
bit like we and this is a real thing. By
the way, they should know they don't need the number
one seed like that, I think, I think, much more
so than anybody else who might actually want it. In
the East. The Celtics are like they should feel very
confident and this will cause cost them games probably that like,
we'll turn it on when we need to. I think
they are justified and feeling that way about themselves. The
other thing is not only porzingis like he's gonna miss
all that time, and I guarantee you they're going to
be super careful with him when he does come back
and is playing like he will play less minutes per
game and actual like there's no way he's going to
play back to back. Al Horford is a million years old.
He has to be played less, especially coming off that
deep run. So yeah, like there's just no like, what
is the argument for them being better? Maybe flip it
and put it that way, like, how do you how
do you do.
Speaker 1: That that the East is just not as good as
we expected that Let's look at the teams that have
some significant new additions where it's oh, like New York
and Philadelphia are the same or worse. For some reason,
it turns of New York really Mitchell Robinson's injured and
they really miss Isaiahrtstein or Philly Joelle and Be's injured again,
and that kind of goes off the rails from there.
That's really the Celtics are, on paper, the best team,
and the I think the Thunder are the only team
that has a reasonable case to be put over them
in any sort of best team in the league discussion
right now. But and they should honestly, they shouldn't care
about winning that Like it's just.
Speaker 2: You mentioned they don't need it. They don't need it,
so yeah, I just can't.
Speaker 1: I would be what's more likely that Jalen Brown requests
a trade because he's mad that Derek White made the
Olympic roster, or that Boston wins sixty five games.
Speaker 2: Like Jalen Brown trade request for sure because they just
they can't win.
Speaker 1: See head, We could go to the real sports talk
show route and just be like, well, is there discord brewing?
Jalen Brown didn't seem happy, he blamed Nike.
Speaker 2: This team ready to fall apart internally.
Speaker 1: Probably this is all to say they should be your
pick to come out of the Eastern Conference. I'm just
not betting on them to win sixty five plus game.
Speaker 2: Yes, yeah, all right, let's do the Cleveland Cavaliers. I
would start by noting that this team won fifty five
games two years ago, and the roster is arguably better
and perhaps more secure, because just about everybody who really
matters has big new contracts and there's no more who's
gonna be here who's not got a new coach, probably
an upgrade. Their best four guys were plus two point
seven last year but played less than a thousand possessions.
They were plus ten point two and about twice that
many in twenty two twenty three. That's where those fifty
five wins came from. I think they're gonna be better.
I think they could be a lot better. I just
don't know unless you're gonna cite injuries, why you'd say
they're gonna win forty seven games or fewer.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I and look, I think it might be fair
to cite injury at this point. Or if you point
to Darius Garland looking kind of awkward last year, maybe
it wasn't kind of the byproduct of him getting hit
in the face every five seconds. So there are reasons
the dual big stuff are they gonna have to heavily stagger.
They probably will, and Kenny Atkinson will figure it out.
But like, they're not out of move jaredown could be
traded if it's not working out and they want to
go to sort of put mobile as or full time
center type deal. They have so many options. But I
still kind of believe that the top four can just
work out together because of what we saw in year
one when Evan Mobley was a worst version of himself
and like Darius Garland was better, but like Darius Garland
can get back to that point. So I think they'll
pretty easily be better. And I actually look at them
as the team. It feels like them in Milwaukee, but
even more so them because we talked more collectively about
the Calves need to trade one of like so and
so or well, Donovanmage'll ask her out. It just feels
like they're being overlooked more than any could be contender should,
and Milwaukee has some of that. Again, I feel like
people have slept on but they're if Chris Middleton coming
off ankle surgeries and just their guys are getting older.
All of Cleveland's players aren't even in their prime yet
or they're firmly in their prime, and so they're also
just like, have you ever seen the top four of
a really good roster locked down for so long when
there's only one contract as of right now that would
be considered like not the twenty five percent max deal,
and so like that, like they are built to sustain
if they're good too, which is kind of scary here.
Speaker 2: I just think, like, even if you're not convinced that
Atkinson will figure out ways to use all four guys
that are better than Bickerstaff did, like the ill fit
between Alan and Mobley and to some extent Garland and Mitchell,
Like that's a playoff problem. That's not something that I
think kills you against you know, the bulls you know
in January or whoever. Like, it's just it's a problem
down the road, like I think, probably until Atkinson proves
it's not. But I'm not concerned about that stuff at
all in terms of their regular season win total. If anything,
it's a bonus just because we do know that Alan
or Mobiley can be the loan big Garland or Mitchell
can be the lone play maker. Like that it all works.
Speaker 1: And the other thing is, I think because the strides
Mobiley specifically made, I think during his loan big minutes
without looking at the actual numbers, like just off of
remembrance eye testing it, that's like now you could just say, oh, well, well,
just now we know we're gonna have forty eight minutes
of great play in the middle, and so we have
to heavily stagger them then, so be like you might
just be better balanced off for that. And I think
the real if you're trying to look for an issue
with the core four, I think the problems will come
when it comes to crunch time. Yea, And it's are
we going one big like they did a lot of
times last year. If if Garland and Mitchell aren't meshing
and defensively like you're not necessarily holding up and there's
a guy at the point of attack who's really like
killing you, and who knows if Bicycle corrals on this roster,
maybe he'll resign by the time it comes out, or
maybe Danny angelill do one of those late summer offsheets
like he did for Paul Reid last year. So I
like that would be the level of concern, which is this.
This feels like a fifty win team to me, And
you could probably I probably look at four teams in
the East and say, I think they're gonna win fifty games,
and this would be one of them.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And just again, they've they've done it. They've won
fifty with this team, you know, like two years ago.
I just I just don't see how they barring injury obviously,
you know, caveat every time.
Speaker 1: My turn for you, and I'm going to throw you
the New York Knicks because I'm curious. We haven't done
off season grades or anything yet, but I recorded a
pod with Nick's Film School. I've talked a lot on
my own about how I feel about the Knicks offseason.
Where are you at with a team that just finished
with the second best record in the Eastern Conference at
fifty wins on the button.
Speaker 2: So I worry about breakdown fatigue coming off that that
really tough, and not just postseason where they had a
million injuries, but like down the stretch of the year
when Duce McBride's playing forty six minutes a night for
like two weeks straight, that concerns me. That said, the
depth is just improved, Like Josh Hard and Dante DiVincenzo
coming off the bench is like what a luxury? Like,
I mean, what team wouldn't kill to have those be
their first two guys coming off the bench? Like those
are clear starting players that you know so far have
just proved that they can can take on that starting
role when they need to. Having them as reserves against
opposing backups is just like that's ridiculous. You know, the
Randall and og stretch was like, oh my god, how
good is this team gonna be? If with these two
guys and everybody else, you know, relatively healthy, I'm going better.
But the thing that scares me the most more than
the breakdown, more than the fatigue, which I'm sure you'll guess,
it's just like, what's the center, you know, set up
gonna look? Like? Can Mitchell Robinson be healthy? And if
he's not, then like, are we just trusting that Tibbs
will try Randall? There is og gonna be the guy
that guards fives? I you know, maybe, but fifty is
a decently high total. Even though I think this team
on balance is like is quite a bit better and
has a I don't know what we should maybe talk
about their ceiling in terms of regular season wins, but like,
if you got the kind of question marks they do
at center, it does give me a little a little
bit of pause.
Speaker 1: And the other thing, too, is that I've argued I
think Julius Randall is more important to this team because
of who they decided to cash all their trade chips into.
It's that, Okay, could Mikal Bridges be your second best
shot creator? Maybe? But what happened in Brooklyn. I think
kind of proved we know he's not gonna be a
number one, and it did watching him, it was just well,
if you need him to do shoulder a top two
defensive burden, which the Knicks will, he's probably better off
as the third option on your offense. And so if
Julius Randall goes down again, you're in a situation where
there's so much on Jalen Brunson once more, so does
he break down or The other thing is this isn't
an insult to Jalen Brunson. He just finished fifth in
MVP voting. There's no guarantee that he's back there. Like,
it's really hard to be at that level in consecutive seasons.
I probably wouldn't have predicted. Maybe I did predict it
for Shae Gilgers Alexander and maybe Jalen Brunson gets there.
I've seen player rankings, a lot of people have him
in the top seven right now. That feels like a
little bit high for me in terms of value. Yeah,
there's no question he's still that valuable to this roster.
So there's just it feels like there's a bunch of
stuff that could go wrong. Earlier where that stuff went
wrong for them kind of later in the season, but
it even went wrong earlier, like Mitch Robinson will probably
be healthier. And I think I'm more bullish on them
being better because I love the Mchal Bridges fit. Obviously
he fits anywhere. But I do believe that Tibbs is
gonna get I think he's shown some lineup and functional
flexibility over the past couple of seasons or season and
a half, and so my prediction would be that we
do see ample minutes with Julius Randal and ogn and
ob are trading off five responsibilities. Randall's the five on offense,
OG's the five on defense. And look, if you get
to those minutes like that unlocks Julius Randall in a
way offensively that you like. I guess don't need to
because we've seen him play this role for so long
and he's worked alongside Jalen Brunson just fine. But I
actually think that's a pathway to getting a better version
of Julius Randall two. And I think you have the
personnel to look. Just do it during non Brunson minutes
and say Randall, OG, We'll make sure Michel Bridges is
on the floor during those stints too, and then just
filled out like Duce McBride. You want defense, you want
more defense, Put Josh Hard out there. This is a
really good roster, and I think there's still some depth
to them, even though there's natural concern at the five spot.
So I think they should be in the mid fifties.
Speaker 2: I think that's right, and I wouldn't. I wouldn't, for
like talking about ceiling if Brunston's healthy the whole year,
and you know, just factoring like average injury rates across
the rest of the roster, like this is a team
I could have because you know, Thibodeau and all the
guys on this roster like play every game like you
know tomorrow the world's ending sixties. Not like it's a
super high bar. I don't know what the percentage chance
they hit it is, but like it exists for them,
and that's not true for twenty five other teams. I don't.
Speaker 1: That don't make Andrew Claudio of Next Film School very
happy if he's listening to this, because he said he
thinks they could get sixty as well. I would say
I wouldn't use that as my framing, but I do
think They're more likely to finish with the best record
in the East than Milwaukee or Philly, just because those
are teams that are not I mean, look at Philly's
best players. They are a little bit older and Beads
always missed time. And then just Milwaukee kind of the
same difference. And those teams that are not gonna be
as invested in getting it. We're Cleveland, Boston could stumble
into it. That's why I'm not throwing them in the
like say, all the Nicks are definitely gonna be put
Like Cleveland, I could see them just going for it,
but like Milwaukee and Philly, all right, the Knicks will.
Speaker 2: Yep, that's a big factor. All Right, we actually have
I guess Orlando is our only mild disagreement. Let's just
get the Wizards out of the way.
Speaker 1: Rude.
Speaker 2: If fifteen wins last year, I'm going worse. And I
just think this is probably the least talented roster in
the league top to bottom by a decent margin. The
guys you would cite as like, well, they'll kind of,
you know, stabilize things. Valenciunis Brogden, those guys are trade ships.
They are not gonna be there all season, I don't
think and even if they are, like how much are
they gonna play? How much should they play? This is
my pick for the worst defense in the league. I'm
pretty confident in that. I think they are gonna plays
are a lot, and I think he is going to
kill them. Uh and that's okay, just because you gotta
see what you have with him. So it's a super
low total. I just like I don't I don't think
they want to and I don't think they can get
much higher than fifteen wins.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you, and I would say that at
least two of the Malcolm Brogden, Corey Kissbert, Kyle Kuzma,
Jonas Valentiunis cluster of oh players that can help us
will not be on the roster by the trade deadline
and shouldn't be shouldn't well or that, or they won't
be playing. I'm not saying that. Look, if the Wizards
don't want to trade those guys, none of them, with
the exception of maybe Kuzma is gonna get you altering assets,
and that's even he's probably not even getting you that.
So but they won't be I'll tell you, none of
them will be playing a lot of games after the
trade deadline if they're still on the Wizards. So I'm
this is more and I don't think Wizards fans I
will say, I don't like painting fan base is a
broad rush. But they seem to like kind of you
always like there's descent among Raptors fans a lot of
it as to what the team is doing. And that's
probably fair. But like the fans, the organization, the coaching staff,
and the front office, like all those levels of Washington,
Wizards just appear to be in alignment here and Wizards
fan seem to be fully embracing kind of the suck.
They want to know why we're not talking more about
Kaishan George. They want to know why we're not talking
about more about bub Carrington's passing. I will say the
one thing I'll be watching, I don't know what to
make of Bub Carrington yet, but that also in surch
you'll be bad if you decide, well, we're not gonna like,
we're not gonna let like Malcolm Brock didn't run a
ton of the office like this Bub Carrington show. I
hope they give more on ball touches to blackholea Bali,
and I hope even if it's ugly, even if he's
shooting like thirty five percent from two, just make sure
that alex Are doesn't go the DeAndre Ayton way of
finesse on the offensive end. Like, let's make this someone
who gets to the foul line, who's gonna finish with forcet,
who's connecting, for god fucking sakes on his screens, I
think he's gonna end up. I'm I tend not to
read into Summer League good or bad, Like I try
to take way things with the eye test from it,
and sometimes I probably don't place enough stock in it.
I'm not gonna I'm throwing Summer League out the window.
I do it for like, it's just he's so young,
and it's just such an odd situation. But they have
a ton of developmental projects and all of them are
gonna just get a ton.
Speaker 2: Of run, right, and like, so we both love Kolabali,
but like, if he has a bigger role and plays more,
he's not gonna be for a player.
Speaker 1: Let's move on the most importantly, that's the one. And
this might speak to how I rationally high I am
on him. I still view him as their best long
term prospect.
Speaker 2: Uh yeah, I agree.
Speaker 1: Well, I think with Tsar and Bubb, I think there
would be some disagreement, which is fair, have discussion. I
will say, if you're gonna accidentally be better than expected,
it just wouldn't shock me if giving Balah Kolabali a
bigger role is part of the pathway to that, because
that's how much of a believer I am in him.
I don't maybe you don't agree that he has the
vision if they're actually gonna have him run the offense.
I just think in terms of if you just need
him to do some basic deferential things coming around screens,
getting downhill, he'll do it. And so maybe maybe it's
a matter of all other guys aren't going to hit
the shots office passes anyway, so what does it matter?
And is he gonna have connectivity with the bigs. I'm
so high on block cool Bali that I hope they
give him kind of the Deniafvia bump that Deniavia finally
got after like nineteen years in Washington or whatever it was.
Speaker 2: So that's the thing, like I'm as high on I'm
maybe not as high on him as you are, but
I really believe in him as a long term prospect.
It ain't coming next year, Like next year might will
be the year I think where he plays more and
you look at like you don't know, you sort dunksan threes,
EPM or whatever, and he's like the most negatively impactful
player because he's playing a lot and he's pretty bad.
But it's all okay because it's just this is part
of the developmental process and that's true of like I
don't know, same for I mentioned it with sar and
it's just like, I don't know, we haven't even mentioned
like saboteur in chief Jordan Poole, who it just nobody's
better be on.
Speaker 1: The roster if anyone cares post trade deadline, don't worry.
Speaker 2: If he's not what this is a front office of
the year if they figure out how to get off
him them.
Speaker 1: So we only diverge on blah, like I think there's
I came closer to putting better, but they're just we're
running out of teams to call work.
Speaker 2: Well, that's the thing, like I I you know, the
total is so low that you almost you probably should
just say better, right Like with Detroit. Detroit's just so
much more talented.
Speaker 1: But much of a believer in Washington's vision. Though they're
gonna they're gonna finesse this right, get to like thirteen
win territory.
Speaker 2: They very much know what they're doing here.
Speaker 1: Let's go to the Philadelphia seventy six ers. They won
forty seven games last year. But I think it must
be noted. Yeah, okay, they they added what's his name?
Do you know his name? Who's that free agent they signed? Grant?
Speaker 2: I don't know. Are we thinking of Lori Markinen? That
was the other guy we spent all summer talking.
Speaker 1: Yeah, oh okay, that's that's right. So they got Andre Drummond,
So you add Paul George. But the reason that I
have to go better here they won forty seven games
without a third star on the roster, while Joellembi missed
more than half the season. Yep, we don't like. I
don't even know if we need to go into more
deep like Maxine will get better even I think Paul
George is getting older and worse. The pathway to them
being worse, of course, though, is if Joel Emban missing
significant time again. I just think they're probably better set
up at the I mean it's not. I think they're
better set up at the top. Like, if you have
Tyres Maxie and Paul George, the on off splits with
Joel embie should not be as stark as they typically aren't.
And if they are, then the Sixers probably have some
other questions they need to answer. And finally, before I
throw it to you, they have another big ish move
left in them because they can trade four first round
picks and they can still aggregate salary. They just can't
take back more money into trade. They could still do
something meaningful even if the player ends up being I'm
not saying they're gonna go out and get a star,
but like, this is a Tar Easton team. I'm just
gonna throw Tar Easton every team. But like, if they
can make a phrase frame with this way, they can
acquire someone who will be a part of their closing unit.
They have the assets to do that, and that's kind
of scary when you think about, wait, don't they already
have Tyres Maxie, Paul George, Caleb Martin, and Joel Embiid
And yes they do, and they can still get better
from there.
Speaker 2: Now, somebody is gonna actually do this and prove this
contention wrong, But like you know, sometimes we go through
and we rank, like who are the best you know,
big one and two's in the league, and it's like, oh,
Tatum and Brown or what you know, whoever whoever, it
ends up being like if we did that, I think
Paul George and Tyres Maxie would at least be in
the conversation if we were talking like your number one
and two options. And theoretically that is not the role
they will play on this team. So as like two
and three, I don't know who's got a better second
and third best player. Like every team you would think
of mentioning are like first you know, shortlist championship, favorite
type teams. So that that's just another way of saying
what you did, which is like the talent boost leave
all the bench guys. They just rebuilt a bench. Martin Drummond, Gordon,
Reggie Jackson even like it, just like they have guys
now behind them and just as a top top three.
Everybody made a big deal out of it, like you've
got your one, you've got your three, you've got your five.
Like if you're gonna have three, super treat you've spaced
him out perfectly. There's no overlap, everybody works, right, So, yeah,
forty seven wins is way too low.
Speaker 1: And by the way, here's the other thing. The six
years actually won the minutes last year that Tyre's MAXI
played without Joel Embiid. And so now when you like,
now you're just adding Paul George in theory into the
equation for those minutes and instead of playing to Bias
Harris a lot in those situations, you have cayleb Martin.
Like that's like, that's a big difference in terms of
Kayla Martin's a better two way player at this point.
Obias Harris kind of fell off a cliff by the
end of his time in Philly. But like that lineup
Grant So Tyre's Maxy D'Anthony Mountain Kelly who break, Tobias
Harris and Paul Reid were plus fifteen point one points
per one hundred posessions last year. You can very easily
get to a best five man unit without Joel Embiid.
That is better than that on paper.
Speaker 2: Now, yeah, I mean, so you if you're gonna go
lower to you obviously just pin it on. Oh, Embiid's
gonna miss a bunch of time, maybe PG as well,
right sure, and or like, oh they lost to Anthony
Melton and Paul Reed. Well, like, yeah, Reid matters, but Drummond,
I think is the difference between Drummond and Reid as
a backup is pretty negligible. And Melton didn't play like
Melton was hurt all year. So it's not like, you know,
these new guys they are getting aren't replacing you know,
high end rotation guys. They're just they're just improvements on
like what they got from those positions last year. What
do we got left this?
Speaker 1: Oh?
Speaker 2: Is it just indy? Look at our pace? Unbelievable. Yeah,
we'll go let's.
Speaker 1: Get grand nice wordplay. Look at our pace as we
move into the pacers that it was unintentional.
Speaker 2: That's how dialed in we are right now. Okay, they
won forty seven last year. I'm gonna go better. Yeah,
I'm going better. I'm basically because full season of Siakham.
I think nem Hard, Matherin, Jarris Walker, Ben Shephard could
all be better. Tyres Haliburn hopefully will not be like
sixty five percent of his best self for half of
the year. So, whether it's organic growth, whether it's new additions,
playing larger samples, whether it's their best player looking like
the guy who was in the MVP conversation through like
what two months of the season before he had the hamstring.
There's just a lot of ways for them to be better.
So that's a kind of an overview. But like, are
you with me? And if you're not, this is one
I am prepared to be talked out of. But I
just I don't know where you start if you're gonna
say worse other than the East has more good teams
at the top.
Speaker 1: I think if you want to be concerned about their defense,
they didn't do anything to improve on the wings, and
it doesn't I still, I honestly don't know. I can't
wait to ask Kaitln Cooper about this, assuming she indulges it,
what the plan is for Jarvis Walker here. But I
just tyres Haliburton not going to miss as much time
I would assume, or like he's just gonna be better
wired to wire if he doesn't miss as much time
as he came back. He wasn't the same player after
the hamstring injury. Part of that was the mid season
roster turnover. I'd also bet again something like that happening. Now,
maybe they go out and get like a Dorian Finney
Smith or a Jay Shawn Tate. They would be an
interesting Tary Eastan team by the way, Oh my god,
But like that's not someone who's gonna fundamentally change how
you play, like Pascal Siakam is. And then you also
traded someone who was fundamental to your offense in Buddy
Healed and just the role he played away from the ball,
and you had to make Tyre's Haliburton kind of do
some different stuff off the ball. I think the biggest
factor for them is now you get to go through
a training camp with Tyres Haliburt and Siakam and now
you get time to sit down and figure out how
do we use these two together? Because there's a lot
of people like, well, they should have explored the two
man game with them, and I always understand that when
you're talking about stars, but you're also like you're then involving,
in theory the two best defenders on the other team
in those actions, and so I think, you know, looking
at their staggered minutes, some of them were super interesting.
I think the base of the roster remains really good.
Did it get better like just talent wise, where you
could bank on a ton of improvement. I really think
that depends on how you feel about Jars Walker and
Bennan mcmathern. Who for me, if those two guys are
playing substantial roles, I'm probably lower on the Pacers then
I am. I just I'm not a Ben mcmathern guy relative.
I've seen his highs Pacers fans, I promise I've seen
Pacers games, but his fit on this team is just
so cock eyed to me, and I just don't know
if he's gonna be able to become the level of
defender and off ball player that would be the perfect
fit for their top end units. And so just with
the rise of Andrew Nemhard too, I think that complicates
it even further. And then again, I am banking on
a little bit that they will make a move, not
a huge one, to just address like kind of the
wing rotation, where's everyone's like, Oh, it's Ben mcmather and
Jaris Walker are gonna play a ton. It just wouldn't
shock me if one of those guys is not on
the roster by the end of the season.
Speaker 2: I was just gonna say they could and I think
should look to trade both of those guys, certainly Matherin
for all the reasons that you laid out, and so like,
I don't. I imagine most Pacers fans, as is the
case with most fans of specific teams, like believe in
the inevitable growth to artem of the young guys that
they've drafted. The fit just doesn't work. I don't think, certainly,
not so far. I'm not confident will in the future.
And so like, if anybody out their values Matherin or
Walker as the first round like lottery picks that they
were still maybe they do, maybe they don't. Like there's
a there's a deal to be made that could be
like fairly consequentially, you've got to find more money if
you're really big game hunting. But like I do think
the Pacers should be more likely to make a trade
that like, like you say, sometime you know, maybe not
a closer, but somebody that is like a six, you know,
it really in the rotation and does close. Sometimes if
you put you know, Matherin and or Walker together in
some package, you probably can't trade them at this you know,
to the same team, because that's just like a lot
of youth but you know, I mean they're all going
to improve via trade on news covers back why not? Yeah? No,
I don't know, trade them to Washington Kyle Kuzma for
Matherin and Walker.
Speaker 1: I would push back that they like should I just
think that they should be more open to it than
it seem, specifically with Ben mcmatherin, Like if you actually
are married to Andrew Nemhard and Tyres Haliburton long term.
I just don't well, I don't see the theory of
Ben mcmathern on this team.
Speaker 2: Well or Walker really because you just you know, you Max,
you brought Topping back at a number that says we're
gonna play this guy. I guess.
Speaker 1: Is weird. I was just wondering, like, if you don't
think Miles Turner is here, Like I'm not saying they
they'll trade him, but he is going into a contract year.
If they're not going to pay him, it's easier to envision. Okay,
top In, Siakam, Jarris Walker, you cobble together a big
man rotation out of that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, maybe maybe I'm surprised we agreed there. That was
one that was my last one of Like, I don't know,
I could be talking about.
Speaker 1: We had ten teams getting better, But I'll point this out,
there were six teams in the West last year that
won forty nine games compared to three in the East,
And so like there is room here, especially when the
bottom is so bottom right, that like there could be
more wins available. I'm sure we're gonna miss on some
of these, But I just I don't look at any
of this like where's the risk that like the real
I guess maybe some people might think the Hornets and
the Bucks are risks. I guess I just don't.
Speaker 2: Well I would I would frame it as like, if
we're trying to justify why we have teams getting better
by a two to one ratio, I think you could
say between Brooklyn and Washington, those are probably going to
be the worst records in the league. Like Portland might
have something to say about it, but if you just
look at the rosters, like Portland has way more talent
for those teams. So if you say those Brooklyn and
Washington combined for fewer than thirty wins, which we basically
have said they absolutely will, then you're just you know,
you're just put apportioning those out to several teams and
that's how you get so many with improved records.
Speaker 1: Are you ready to take us out of here?
Speaker 2: Sure? Thanks everybody for listening, for watching, for appreciating Dan's
unbelievable graphics, complete with emojis overlaid words. Just really, if
you're not watching, you should have been, is the point
I'm making for these ones, especially.
Speaker 1: Like the stream you're complimenting, you get rid of it
so you can look at us instead.
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Close as always, shouts Frank mila Kina saw him make
an awesome offensive rebound against Germany just before we started recording,
and why a beam of light came down from heaven
and shown on Frank Milikina and he just hoarded this
offensive pord and put it back so he'll be back
in the league soon. Apologies, Chaired owt