Speaker 1: This year has been a year of heat waves, wildfires,
Speaker 1: and extreme weather across the globe. It's not the hottest
Speaker 1: year on record so far. That was twenty twenty four,
Speaker 1: but climate scientists say twenty twenty six could still take
Speaker 1: that ominous title. That's because it's an al Nino year.
Speaker 1: Some have even called it a super al Nina year.
Speaker 1: We'll get into that in a second. First, we asked
Speaker 1: Zach lab a researcher at Climate Central, what climate forecasters
Speaker 1: mean by el nino.
Speaker 2: So what that refers to is it's this oscillation of
Speaker 2: ocean waters, the temperature of ocean waters in the central
Speaker 2: tropical Pacific Ocean.
Speaker 1: Okay, that sounds a bit dry, but an el Nino
Speaker 1: is anything. But he's talking about an irregular warming of
Speaker 1: the waters here in the Pacific Ocean. That's extra heat
Speaker 1: that can turbocharge global weather, making the extremes even more extreme.
Speaker 2: And so what al Nina does is it can add
Speaker 2: a temporary boost to those temperatures to make them even
Speaker 2: warmer than they would be.
Speaker 1: Warmer waters doesn't sound too bad at for his glance,
Speaker 1: but the data shows this is the longest stretch of
Speaker 1: consistently high ocean temperatures since records began, and that's threatening
Speaker 1: to kip the delicate climate balance we depend on.
Speaker 2: These extreme temperatures in the ocean are affecting many basins
Speaker 2: in terms of maride heat waves. We're seeing across parts
Speaker 2: of off the coast of western Europe, stretching across much
Speaker 2: of the Pacific Ocean, across parts of the other parts
Speaker 2: of the Atlantic. So this year, in particular, I think
Speaker 2: the ocean warmth is a really key story. And as
Speaker 2: al Nino starts to unfold more and more and we're
Speaker 2: already seeing it quite impressive, I think the story about
Speaker 2: the ocean's impacts will continue to be a top climate
Speaker 2: story for the rest of the year.
Speaker 1: But what does that mean in concrete terms? What's the
Speaker 1: connection between ocean temperatures and extreme weather.
Speaker 2: There's a couple different ways that the ocean temperatures affect
Speaker 2: extreme weather. One can actually be a local effect, and
Speaker 2: what that means is for coastal communities, so you can
Speaker 2: have really warm ocean temperatures right off the coast, and
Speaker 2: for areas along the shore that can actually boost humidity levels,
Speaker 2: so that can increase heat stress during the day, and
Speaker 2: that can also lead to warmer nights, So when you
Speaker 2: have these higher humidity conditions associated with those warmer ocean waters,
Speaker 2: the temperature doesn't drop as much at night and during
Speaker 2: potential areas of extreme heat. That can be really dangerous
Speaker 2: because our body often relies on temperatures to cool down
Speaker 2: at night so we can rest and there can be
Speaker 2: reduced heat stress. So this tendency for warmer nights is
Speaker 2: very much a heat health hazard.
Speaker 1: But it's not just the physical stress of hot nights
Speaker 1: and hotter days that has observers worried. The excess heat
Speaker 1: is creating so called heat domes, and if you've seen
Speaker 1: the horrendous fires that have been lashing southern Europe this year,
Speaker 1: you know the damage of heat dome is capable of inflicting.
Speaker 2: Warmer ocean waters can also affect changes in extreme weather patterns,
Speaker 2: so it can reinforce certain types of weather patterns to occur,
Speaker 2: like those heat domes. This is more of a new
Speaker 2: area of research that we're trying to understand the linkages
Speaker 2: between these warmer ocean waters and how that might affect
Speaker 2: these types of really persistent weather patterns like we've been
Speaker 2: seen during the summer, and that can be particularly dangerous
Speaker 2: if you have a hurricane that's approaching land, it goes
Speaker 2: over these warmer ocean waters, and when the conditions and
Speaker 2: the environment are favorable, then it can really intensify even
Speaker 2: faster right before landfall, giving communities less time to prepare.
Speaker 1: The already record breaking warm waters of the world's oceans
Speaker 1: are likely to get supercharged by this year's al Nino,
Speaker 1: which only really kicks in in the winter. But the
Speaker 1: strange thing about this climate event is that it brings
Speaker 1: different extreme weather to different parts of the globe.
Speaker 2: Some of these linkages that are a bit more clear
Speaker 2: between Almino and regional climate are One of those is
Speaker 2: across the Western United States, where there's a tendency during
Speaker 2: Almino years for wetter than average conditions and sometimes in
Speaker 2: years that can actually lead to flooding in parts of
Speaker 2: Lake California up into Oregon due to atmospheric rivers. Other
Speaker 2: connections we'll be keeping an eye on is over the
Speaker 2: Amazon and in potentially more drought conditions that are favorable
Speaker 2: during certain Amino years. Other areas include Southeast Asia. That's
Speaker 2: a region that has a tendency for more heat extremes
Speaker 2: and especially drier than average conditions, so that can lead
Speaker 2: to areas of drought when more potential for wildfires to grow.
Speaker 2: So these are just a few of the linkages that
Speaker 2: El Nino has the tendency to more affect those regions.
Speaker 2: But again, every al Nino is different, and every al
Speaker 2: nino has its own sort of character and intensity associate
Speaker 2: associated with it. So we will have to wait and
Speaker 2: see what this year has to unfold.
Speaker 1: And of course there's the most extreme consequence of the
Speaker 1: climate crisis, the wildfires that are raging from Canada to France, Spain,
Speaker 1: Greece and even Siberia.
Speaker 2: We're definitely seeing conditions become more prevalent for wildfire growth
Speaker 2: when those wildfires ignite. That means that the environmental conditions
Speaker 2: they are even more favorable for it to become more intense,
Speaker 2: more and more spread into larger areas. And it's really
Speaker 2: part of this idea that with a warming world, the
Speaker 2: planet can the atmosphere can hold more moisture, and so
Speaker 2: what that does to this land surface is that tries
Speaker 2: to cool all of that moisture out of like the
Speaker 2: soils and vegetation and crops into the atmosphere. So that
Speaker 2: leads to an enhanced drying of the vegetation of the
Speaker 2: soils that combined with some of these extreme heat conditions,
Speaker 2: The dryness, the hot temperatures all make those wildfire conditions,
Speaker 2: the fire weather as we call it, more favorable for growth.
Speaker 2: And it's really part of this long term trend. One
Speaker 2: of these factors, especially in areas that have this long
Speaker 2: term trend towards less precipitation or more likely to see
Speaker 2: the conditions be favorable for wildfires going forward into the
Speaker 2: future in a warmer world.
Speaker 1: So is twenty twenty six going to break the record
Speaker 1: for the hottest year ever?
Speaker 2: Twenty twenty six is going to be and I can't
Speaker 2: give an answer today whether it's going to break the
Speaker 2: new global temperature record, but it's certainly get a rank
Speaker 2: within the top five and maybe top three warmest years
Speaker 2: on record. And for me as a climate scientist, I'm
Speaker 2: really interested in that long term trend, which is due
Speaker 2: to again human cause climate change, and so this year
Speaker 2: will rank very high and very consistent with that trend.
Speaker 2: I think what's a bit more clear is actually looking
Speaker 2: into twenty twenty seven. So there's a tendency for Almino's
Speaker 2: connection to global temperature to be even stronger and more
Speaker 2: clear sort of several months later. So especially getting into
Speaker 2: late twenty twenty six into early twenty twenty seven is
Speaker 2: where we're really going to likely see global temperatures rise
Speaker 2: even more due to that extra boost from Elmino. So
Speaker 2: I think twenty twenty seven has a higher chance of
Speaker 2: breaking the new all time warmest year on record.
Speaker 1: What's clear is the world is growing warmer year by year,
Speaker 1: and science points the finger at man made climate change,
Speaker 1: but with humans pumping and estimated one hundred million metric
Speaker 1: tons of CO two into the atmosphere every day, I
Speaker 1: asked zach Laib if he has any hope we can
Speaker 1: avert catastrophe.
Speaker 2: I think we're definitely seeing signs for optimism that already
Speaker 2: that there have been steps taken place to reduce overall
Speaker 2: global carbon emissions are lower than we might have expected
Speaker 2: otherwise had we not taken these steps to renewable energy,
Speaker 2: and I think looking at just the prevalence growing prevalence
Speaker 2: of solutions from wind, from solar and other solutions are
Speaker 2: really showing strong steps that there are some actions being
Speaker 2: taken place around the world, and especially at the local level.
Speaker 2: I really encourage people to look at all the steps
Speaker 2: that are going on in their community, how can they
Speaker 2: get involved, how can they learn more about local community
Speaker 2: action towards climate resilience and climate solutions. And I think
Speaker 2: there's many optimistic and really wonderful stories happening at that.
Speaker 1: Local Some activists have put it this way, twenty twenty
Speaker 1: six might be the hottest year on record, but it
Speaker 1: might also be the coolest year we'll experience for the
Speaker 1: rest of our lives. That is, unless we finally do
Speaker 1: something to reverse climate change for good. I'm Amy and
Speaker 1: Isaf in Berlin. Thanks for watching.