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<v Speaker 1>This year has been a year of heat waves, wildfires,

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<v Speaker 1>and extreme weather across the globe. It's not the hottest

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<v Speaker 1>year on record so far. That was twenty twenty four,

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<v Speaker 1>but climate scientists say twenty twenty six could still take

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<v Speaker 1>that ominous title. That's because it's an al Nino year.

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<v Speaker 1>Some have even called it a super al Nina year.

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<v Speaker 1>We'll get into that in a second. First, we asked

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<v Speaker 1>Zach lab a researcher at Climate Central, what climate forecasters

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<v Speaker 1>mean by el nino.

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<v Speaker 2>So what that refers to is it's this oscillation of

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<v Speaker 2>ocean waters, the temperature of ocean waters in the central

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<v Speaker 2>tropical Pacific Ocean.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, that sounds a bit dry, but an el Nino

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<v Speaker 1>is anything. But he's talking about an irregular warming of

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<v Speaker 1>the waters here in the Pacific Ocean. That's extra heat

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<v Speaker 1>that can turbocharge global weather, making the extremes even more extreme.

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<v Speaker 2>And so what al Nina does is it can add

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<v Speaker 2>a temporary boost to those temperatures to make them even

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<v Speaker 2>warmer than they would be.

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<v Speaker 1>Warmer waters doesn't sound too bad at for his glance,

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<v Speaker 1>but the data shows this is the longest stretch of

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<v Speaker 1>consistently high ocean temperatures since records began, and that's threatening

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<v Speaker 1>to kip the delicate climate balance we depend on.

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<v Speaker 2>These extreme temperatures in the ocean are affecting many basins

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<v Speaker 2>in terms of maride heat waves. We're seeing across parts

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<v Speaker 2>of off the coast of western Europe, stretching across much

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<v Speaker 2>of the Pacific Ocean, across parts of the other parts

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<v Speaker 2>of the Atlantic. So this year, in particular, I think

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<v Speaker 2>the ocean warmth is a really key story. And as

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<v Speaker 2>al Nino starts to unfold more and more and we're

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<v Speaker 2>already seeing it quite impressive, I think the story about

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<v Speaker 2>the ocean's impacts will continue to be a top climate

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<v Speaker 2>story for the rest of the year.

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<v Speaker 1>But what does that mean in concrete terms? What's the

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<v Speaker 1>connection between ocean temperatures and extreme weather.

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<v Speaker 2>There's a couple different ways that the ocean temperatures affect

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<v Speaker 2>extreme weather. One can actually be a local effect, and

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<v Speaker 2>what that means is for coastal communities, so you can

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<v Speaker 2>have really warm ocean temperatures right off the coast, and

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<v Speaker 2>for areas along the shore that can actually boost humidity levels,

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<v Speaker 2>so that can increase heat stress during the day, and

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<v Speaker 2>that can also lead to warmer nights, So when you

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<v Speaker 2>have these higher humidity conditions associated with those warmer ocean waters,

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<v Speaker 2>the temperature doesn't drop as much at night and during

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<v Speaker 2>potential areas of extreme heat. That can be really dangerous

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<v Speaker 2>because our body often relies on temperatures to cool down

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<v Speaker 2>at night so we can rest and there can be

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<v Speaker 2>reduced heat stress. So this tendency for warmer nights is

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<v Speaker 2>very much a heat health hazard.

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<v Speaker 1>But it's not just the physical stress of hot nights

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<v Speaker 1>and hotter days that has observers worried. The excess heat

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<v Speaker 1>is creating so called heat domes, and if you've seen

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<v Speaker 1>the horrendous fires that have been lashing southern Europe this year,

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<v Speaker 1>you know the damage of heat dome is capable of inflicting.

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<v Speaker 2>Warmer ocean waters can also affect changes in extreme weather patterns,

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<v Speaker 2>so it can reinforce certain types of weather patterns to occur,

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<v Speaker 2>like those heat domes. This is more of a new

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<v Speaker 2>area of research that we're trying to understand the linkages

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<v Speaker 2>between these warmer ocean waters and how that might affect

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<v Speaker 2>these types of really persistent weather patterns like we've been

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<v Speaker 2>seen during the summer, and that can be particularly dangerous

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<v Speaker 2>if you have a hurricane that's approaching land, it goes

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<v Speaker 2>over these warmer ocean waters, and when the conditions and

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<v Speaker 2>the environment are favorable, then it can really intensify even

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<v Speaker 2>faster right before landfall, giving communities less time to prepare.

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<v Speaker 1>The already record breaking warm waters of the world's oceans

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<v Speaker 1>are likely to get supercharged by this year's al Nino,

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<v Speaker 1>which only really kicks in in the winter. But the

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<v Speaker 1>strange thing about this climate event is that it brings

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<v Speaker 1>different extreme weather to different parts of the globe.

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<v Speaker 2>Some of these linkages that are a bit more clear

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<v Speaker 2>between Almino and regional climate are One of those is

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<v Speaker 2>across the Western United States, where there's a tendency during

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<v Speaker 2>Almino years for wetter than average conditions and sometimes in

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<v Speaker 2>years that can actually lead to flooding in parts of

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<v Speaker 2>Lake California up into Oregon due to atmospheric rivers. Other

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<v Speaker 2>connections we'll be keeping an eye on is over the

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<v Speaker 2>Amazon and in potentially more drought conditions that are favorable

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<v Speaker 2>during certain Amino years. Other areas include Southeast Asia. That's

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<v Speaker 2>a region that has a tendency for more heat extremes

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<v Speaker 2>and especially drier than average conditions, so that can lead

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<v Speaker 2>to areas of drought when more potential for wildfires to grow.

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<v Speaker 2>So these are just a few of the linkages that

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<v Speaker 2>El Nino has the tendency to more affect those regions.

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<v Speaker 2>But again, every al Nino is different, and every al

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<v Speaker 2>nino has its own sort of character and intensity associate

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<v Speaker 2>associated with it. So we will have to wait and

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<v Speaker 2>see what this year has to unfold.

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<v Speaker 1>And of course there's the most extreme consequence of the

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<v Speaker 1>climate crisis, the wildfires that are raging from Canada to France, Spain,

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<v Speaker 1>Greece and even Siberia.

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<v Speaker 2>We're definitely seeing conditions become more prevalent for wildfire growth

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<v Speaker 2>when those wildfires ignite. That means that the environmental conditions

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<v Speaker 2>they are even more favorable for it to become more intense,

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<v Speaker 2>more and more spread into larger areas. And it's really

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<v Speaker 2>part of this idea that with a warming world, the

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<v Speaker 2>planet can the atmosphere can hold more moisture, and so

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<v Speaker 2>what that does to this land surface is that tries

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<v Speaker 2>to cool all of that moisture out of like the

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<v Speaker 2>soils and vegetation and crops into the atmosphere. So that

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<v Speaker 2>leads to an enhanced drying of the vegetation of the

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<v Speaker 2>soils that combined with some of these extreme heat conditions,

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<v Speaker 2>The dryness, the hot temperatures all make those wildfire conditions,

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<v Speaker 2>the fire weather as we call it, more favorable for growth.

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<v Speaker 2>And it's really part of this long term trend. One

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<v Speaker 2>of these factors, especially in areas that have this long

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<v Speaker 2>term trend towards less precipitation or more likely to see

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<v Speaker 2>the conditions be favorable for wildfires going forward into the

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<v Speaker 2>future in a warmer world.

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<v Speaker 1>So is twenty twenty six going to break the record

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<v Speaker 1>for the hottest year ever?

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<v Speaker 2>Twenty twenty six is going to be and I can't

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<v Speaker 2>give an answer today whether it's going to break the

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<v Speaker 2>new global temperature record, but it's certainly get a rank

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<v Speaker 2>within the top five and maybe top three warmest years

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<v Speaker 2>on record. And for me as a climate scientist, I'm

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<v Speaker 2>really interested in that long term trend, which is due

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<v Speaker 2>to again human cause climate change, and so this year

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<v Speaker 2>will rank very high and very consistent with that trend.

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<v Speaker 2>I think what's a bit more clear is actually looking

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<v Speaker 2>into twenty twenty seven. So there's a tendency for Almino's

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<v Speaker 2>connection to global temperature to be even stronger and more

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<v Speaker 2>clear sort of several months later. So especially getting into

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<v Speaker 2>late twenty twenty six into early twenty twenty seven is

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<v Speaker 2>where we're really going to likely see global temperatures rise

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<v Speaker 2>even more due to that extra boost from Elmino. So

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<v Speaker 2>I think twenty twenty seven has a higher chance of

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<v Speaker 2>breaking the new all time warmest year on record.

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<v Speaker 1>What's clear is the world is growing warmer year by year,

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<v Speaker 1>and science points the finger at man made climate change,

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<v Speaker 1>but with humans pumping and estimated one hundred million metric

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<v Speaker 1>tons of CO two into the atmosphere every day, I

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<v Speaker 1>asked zach Laib if he has any hope we can

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<v Speaker 1>avert catastrophe.

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<v Speaker 2>I think we're definitely seeing signs for optimism that already

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<v Speaker 2>that there have been steps taken place to reduce overall

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<v Speaker 2>global carbon emissions are lower than we might have expected

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<v Speaker 2>otherwise had we not taken these steps to renewable energy,

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<v Speaker 2>and I think looking at just the prevalence growing prevalence

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<v Speaker 2>of solutions from wind, from solar and other solutions are

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<v Speaker 2>really showing strong steps that there are some actions being

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<v Speaker 2>taken place around the world, and especially at the local level.

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<v Speaker 2>I really encourage people to look at all the steps

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<v Speaker 2>that are going on in their community, how can they

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<v Speaker 2>get involved, how can they learn more about local community

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<v Speaker 2>action towards climate resilience and climate solutions. And I think

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<v Speaker 2>there's many optimistic and really wonderful stories happening at that.

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<v Speaker 1>Local Some activists have put it this way, twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 1>six might be the hottest year on record, but it

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<v Speaker 1>might also be the coolest year we'll experience for the

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<v Speaker 1>rest of our lives. That is, unless we finally do

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<v Speaker 1>something to reverse climate change for good. I'm Amy and

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<v Speaker 1>Isaf in Berlin. Thanks for watching.