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Speaker 1: M h.

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Speaker 2: And readings. Hello, how are you welcome to the big

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podcast we have. We have a lot to go over today.

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I mean, it's it's it's an ongoing story. I know

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we've been doing the war, the war, the war, but

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it's a it's an ongoing story, and there's new chapters

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to it. And the new chapter for today is essentially this.

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This podcast is brought to you by the word blockade.

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I mean, that's that's the has changed an awful lot.

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So we get into the war with Iran, we bomb them,

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Israel bombs them, We bomb them the smithereens, as the

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President said. But that's all changed now we're not bombing.

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We're in a ceasefire. The ceasefire expires on the twenty first,

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which is next Tuesday. Oh. Meantime, another ceasefire has well,

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it will begin at five o'clock Eastern time tonight, and

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that's between Israel and Lebanon, which I still scratch my

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head on because the problem with Lebanon isn't Lebanon. The

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problem with Lebanon is the people that are has belaw

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that are in Lebanon, and they need to get has

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Bela to stop sending missiles into Israel. But I digress

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back to bomb bomb bomb bomb bomb Iran, as that

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old song goes, and then you get too in the ceasefire,

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a blockade. And I saw Senator Warner from Virginia the

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other day. Do you know he is, I believe, the

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wealthiest person in Congress. He was very successful in business.

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He had some sort of technology company. He's a Briniac guy.

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He's a very smart guy. And I was very surprised

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because he is a smart guy, and yet he could

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not figure out what the strategic purpose was behind a blockade,

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and it was obvious to me. And it's it's coming

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to fruition that that's all around has. They don't have gold,

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they don't have silver, they don't have anything other than oil,

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and that's where they make their money. To the tune

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of a couple of three. I've seen different quotes two three,

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four hundred million dollars a day. That pays a lot

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of bills. I don't know how much of that they've saved.

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But they're not getting any new money coming in. The

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blockade is working. They had a briefing at the Pentagon

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this morning and a General Kine went through the numbers

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and basically said they've turned around a number of ships

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today that just simply there wasn't they didn't know, They

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did not need to board any of them. They did

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not need to do anything other than the fact that

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they there have been no ships that have transited the

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blockade in the Persian Gulf. This, by the way, this

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is the message which I I don't know. It's the government.

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I love that, I loved the military, but this is

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so government. Here's the message that the Navy is broadcasting

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on some channel that all ships are supposed to be

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listening to.

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Speaker 1: He wants to.

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Speaker 3: Account of blah blah blah, Iranian courts at postal erratives.

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Piece is a legal action. All vessels are advised so

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immediately returned to board. I just continue to training it

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to Iran at bat is her next court call.

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Speaker 2: You don't attempt to.

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Speaker 3: Breach the blockade. Vessels will be boarded for introducing and

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seizear trains it tour prong Iranian court, turn.

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Speaker 2: Around and prepare to be boarded.

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Speaker 3: You did not complying with these block and we will

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use sports the whole of the und see sabe. He's

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reading course with plants.

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Speaker 2: I don't know about you. I don't think I understood

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three words, and it was too long, and it was English.

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Why why didn't they have a version in Farsi so

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that the Iranian ship people could understand what they were saying.

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But I mean, I would boil that down to turn around,

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or will blow you out of the water. But it's

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so it's a government thing. Somebody thought that was The

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captain said, oh, well, let's put out of this long

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statement here and make sure that they know. I did

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not understand what they were saying, but maybe you did,

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so I would be blown out of the water. In

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any case, it's working. They don't have to they've turned

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ships around, they don't have to board any of the ships.

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According to General Kane, thirteen ships were forced to turn around,

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and again none have gotten through. But there were a

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dozen that did pass that were carrying bulk things, not oil,

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and they did not come from an Iranian port, so

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they let them through. So they've got some commercial transit going.

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About a dozen ships. That's not much. Thirteen turned around,

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none of them were boarded, None of them with oil

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got through. Also, General Keane was talking about the blocked

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let's start with him.

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Speaker 1: Well, listen, what's happening here. You really cannot overstate the

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implications of what this blockade means to Iran and the

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incredible amount of leverage we hold now. I mean, President

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Trump was doubled down here on the Iranians, and we

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hold the entire economy and future of Iran literally in

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the hands of this blockade. We can absolutely cripple the

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economic viability of this country at this blockade holds, and

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the negotiations that we've seen earlier in the week and

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last weekend compared to where we are now are very

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very different. I would expect the Iranians at some point

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here are going to come forward and surrender much of

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what we want, and we should get everything. Certainly we

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take away the enriched uranium, there's no enrichment whatsoever. They

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dismantle all the rest of their nuclear enterprise. There is

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no moratorium even take that off the table completely. Moratorium

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of when they can get a nuclear weapon makes no sense.

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If you don't want a nuclear state now, why would

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you want one and permit one that have us in

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a subsequent presidency makes no sense. And obviously restriction on

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ballistic missiles, no support foruxies, and the list goes on

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and should add it to that list. They understand how

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far back on their heels they are. We don't unfreeze

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their assets. At a minimum, it's twenty seven billion. I

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think it's much more than that. Remember Obama did this

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over the nuclear deal in twenty fifteen, close to one

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hundred billion dollars. Why don't we do that. We don't

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want to give them a lifeline. This isn't about face saving.

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The only thing we're not asking to do is sign

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a surrender document.

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Speaker 2: That is the.

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Speaker 1: Leverage that we have here, and if we're going to

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do sanctioned relief, we don't even think about doing sanctioned

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relief until they prove to us over time that their

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behavior has fundamentally changed. That really is the issue, because

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we have to hold them to that. What they say

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and what they are wanting to sign is one thing.

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What they actually do is quite something else, because they

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lie and they cheat. President Trump gets all of this,

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He knows the leverage. He has negotiations back channel going

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on right now as we speak, maybe more formal negotiations coming.

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The leverage is significant on our side, and I think

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we're going to see a completely different outcome, and we

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have the threat of returning to combat operations. I don't

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think we extend the deadline. That's something they wanted from

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the outset, because the ceasefire is enabling them to reconstruct

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their leadership, to be able to communicate effectively again and

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certainly do whatever they can, and recovering the military to

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try to be more effective and protect themselves better than

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what they've been able to do. Let's just get on

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with forcing ideal. That's everything that we want and nothing less.

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You've heard the term about history repeats itself. That's why

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we need to learn history. So last night I'm going

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off on a different tangent here kind of but last

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night I was going down a rabbit hole on YouTube

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and I ran across this, this story about when Germany

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surrendered in World War II. Where they surrendered, who surrendered,

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where they were, who they surrendered.

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Speaker 2: To, and all that. It was at a schoolhouse, an

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empty schoolhouse in Reims, France, was on May fifth of

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nineteen forty five, and General Eisenhower, the Supreme Allied commander,

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was there, but would not he stayed out of the

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room where they were going to have this ceremony where

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the German general was going to sign the surrender documents,

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and Eisenhower said, I'm not going to talk to him.

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I'm not going to shake his hand. I'm going to

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stay back in my office. You guys take care of it.

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Just make sure that he understands he's here to sign

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the surrender documents. Well, this General Yodel or Admiral Yodel,

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I should say, thought that he was a pretty big

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deal and he wanted to negotiate, and he wanted to

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drag it out. And he said, well, we don't want

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to We'll surrender the western forces of the German Army,

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but not the eastern forces because if they do, the

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Russians will get them, and the Russians are brutal. And

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so they kept running back to Eisenhower s and that

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he wants to do that, he wants to that. He said, no,

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total surrender, have him sign the document. And it finally

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came down to the German soldier with the admiral was delaying, obfuscating,

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doing everything he could to avoid surrendering. And I thought, man,

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that's exactly what's going on with Iran right now. Those

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leaders do not want to surrender. I guess that's normal,

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but you've got like General Keing says, you've got to

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just bring them. They should have a surrender document, have

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them sign the thing, go through a whole ceremony about it.

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And guess what happened to Admiral Yodel After he signed

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the surrender document. They arrested him and within a few

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months he was hanging on the end of a rope

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a war criminal. So history repeats itself. So General Keane

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was asked about, well, what about why why can't we

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do this? No nuclear work on Iran's part for twenty years,

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And keyinges is, well, let's listen.

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Speaker 1: Well to say that the Iranian leadership is fragmented, you know,

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it is something of an understatement. And certainly the negotiation

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team that we were dealing with in Pakistan was checking

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constantly with leadership back in Tehran. And I don't think

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we have a good feel for exactly who all the

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players are, or more maybe more accurately, who actually is

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calling the shots. I think we know who the players are.

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There's two or three others back in Tehran in addition

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to the negotiating team. So yes, but there are tract

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channels going on, and I think our senior people involved

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are likely the President himself is involved in some of this.

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So there's a lot going behind the scenes, and that's

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where it should be. It shouldn't be out here in

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the public domain. And I think there's some very serious

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negotiations that will likely take place because of this leverage

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that we have.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: The Iranians did not anticipate that the President was going

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to double down on them and take everything that they

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value away from them. We are talking about most of

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their entire revenue source is now in the United States control.

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Think about the fundamental implications of what that means. And yes,

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the leverage here is significant. I would like to see

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it end because we have all this leverage, as soon

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as possible, and in other words, with a preliminary agreement,

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because the pressure is on them, and I think we

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should keep that pressure on them as much as possible.

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Of course, negotiations are complicated, they always are. Why would

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we want to have a moratorium. We had a fifteen

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year moratorium under Obama that meant that twenty thirty restrictions

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are removed and they can have a nuclear weapon. Did

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that make any sense? It didn't make any sense. Then,

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Why would that make any sense? Now? Why woulden President

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the president bush have to deal with something like that.

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After all, with the country, they're saying, you're not going

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to become a nuclear state. Why would we underwrite them

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becoming a nuclear state twenty years from now? Did that

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make sense to anybody? I don't think it does, and

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just take it off the list. I think the President

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has already scratched it off the list.

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Speaker 2: Well, I hope so. And again, using history, Admiral Jodel

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did the surrender of Germany for World War Two, and

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they turned right around and arrested him, and then the

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United States and the Soviet Union split up Germany to

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manage it for four more years. They didn't give it

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back to the Nazis. Why are we giving this back?

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I don't understand how why we would give Iran back

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to the regime that has been the leading war funder

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of terrorism in the world and how many Americans that

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they have killed. So that's I'm right with General Keen

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on all of that. The question, though, is popping back

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up again about who is really You heard the general

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who was really running the country. And there's a professor

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at Columbia University, Kean taj Bakish. He had also been

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held as a prisoner in Iran. He knows Iran. He's

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a Runnian American scholar, and he's bringing up the question

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about wait a minute, is jd Vance getting snookered by

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these people are that showed up in Pakistan to negotiate well?

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Speaker 4: When I was very surprised to hear the Vice President

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relate that he felt that he was sitting opposite the

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person in his own words, that he is running Iran.

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And I found that disturbing or concerning, because it either

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because we know it's not true. The people who are

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running Iran, we know are the four or five people

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we can name that are part of the old Guard.

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Speaker 2: They're not.

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Speaker 4: A lower layer, They're actually part of the original layer.

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And so I think at a time when there are

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so many questions in the American public and in the

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world about this war and what its strategy is and

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what the next steps are, I was surprised to hear

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this from the Vice President because either it means that he.

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Speaker 2: In a sense his naive and.

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Speaker 4: Was on you know, it was unaware of what the

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power structure inside Iran is, or it was misleading and

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I think that we have questions about that. I mean,

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I think that we should not underestimate the fact that

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the regime is made up of a number of organizations.

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We hear a lot about the IRGC being you know,

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obviously more upfront now, but the fact is it's important

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to understand that the regime is also the judiciary and

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also the Supreme Leader's office and his key foreign policy advisors,

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who we know who they are. They've been around for

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many years. So the regime is not just simply the military.

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It is this multi organizational kind of oligarchy. I mean,

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I think the issue about the negotiations, First of all,

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I was a little surprised that the vice president, the

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United States vice president, would you know that the American

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delegation would send a rank of so high to meet

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with someone who is really a kind of third or

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fourth level politician in that's who they're meaning with, That's

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who they were meeting with, third or fourth level politicians.

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Speaker 2: Yes, he is the speaker.

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Speaker 4: He is the speaker of a Madelist, which is just

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a rubber stamp parliament, and so he really has no

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official position, you know, in that respect. Obviously he's connected

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to the IRGC. He himself is is a former IRGC officer,

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but the reality is that I think that it was

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a mistake or you know, he was probably misguided to

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have this very high delegation of the US Vice President

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meet with someone who is way below their rank, and

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his claim that I think, I mean, I think what

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worries me is that when he claimed that I was

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sitting opposite the person who was running Iran, I wonder

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whether that reflects just signaling for the American public or

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where it reflects a what I would say is a

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kind of poor understanding of the power structure inside Iran.

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We've gone through these negotiations for decades in which people

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have been sent on the Iranian side who are not,

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you know, equipped to make decisions, and so I think

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that it just throws more ambiguity at a time when

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we need more clarity.

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Speaker 2: Okay, so we've got the negotiations going on with people

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that are this professor says that they're low they're low

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level people. Are we doing? And yet JD. Manns thinks

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he's dealing with the person who is running the country,

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and this guy says he's not not at all. And

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so the negotiations are important. But the other part that

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I think is becoming much more important is the blockade,

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and the blockade if it continues for another week or two,

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it will bring Ran to their knees and we will

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be able to get them to come in and not negotiate,

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but sit down and sign a surrender agreement. That's what

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I'm looking for. Captain Carl Schuster, retired Navy Captain, talks

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about the blockade is not only right there at the

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Strait of hor Moves, but it's anywhere in any ocean,

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any place.

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Speaker 5: Well, I think, first of all, just because the ship

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has escaped the Persian Gulf doesn't mean it can't be

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intercepted later. One of the things about the declaration of

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the blockade is there's a global aspect to it. All

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our combatant commands are acting in support of Central Command,

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so the ship could be intercepted in the Indo Pacific

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Command area of operations and so forth. Now, what Iran

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is planning to do is the threat against the Red

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Sea comes in one of two forms. Iran has long

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range ballistic missiles that supposedly have an anti ship capability

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that they can launch against shipping in the Red Sea.

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The probability of a hits pretty small. As you notice

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with the Hootis, who are firing at a much closer range.

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They only got three hits out of and sixty seven launches.

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Second half of it is they may try to get

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the Hootis to join the war. The Hooties are a

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pragmatic harbor organization. They may join it. They're certainly happy

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to strike Israel, but the Houtis' primary focus has always

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been on what's best for their community within northern Yemen.

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So they've cooperated with Israel in the past against Egypt

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and anyone else that threatened their interests. They've cooperated with

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Saudi Arabia in the past, and of course most of

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the last fifteen years they've cooperate with Iran. So they'll

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do the minimum that they need to do to continue

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to receive Iranian support. They have a ceasefire with the

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United States. They've agreed not to attack our shipping, so

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that is an open question. It'll be interesting to see.

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I personally believe the Iranians will launch a missile themselves

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into the Red Sea. Well on the surface, yes, but

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remember you have the missile's accuracy as well, and when

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you're walking against a moving target, you've got to pick

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an aim point that's ten to twelve minutes ahead, and

335
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that distance could be twelve fifteen hundred yards. And so

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if the missile warhead is only accurate within thirty meters

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or ten meters, then you have a shot. Plus a warship,

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particularly an Agis class ship, has the ability to intercept

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the missile. So it's a threat. I don't want to

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detegrate it, but it's not as serious as for a

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fixed target like an airfield. Iran's strategy is inflick damage.

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Every critical form they hit or even near miss delivers

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a political message. Back in the United States, we no

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longer produce RC one thirty fives, we no longer produce

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E threes, So everyone they take out is years away

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from being replaced. So it's a political message. We'll give

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it that way.

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Speaker 2: He was talking about the fact that there was some

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reporting that Iran might try and not only keep the

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Persian Gulf closed but also the Red Sea. They just

351
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shoot the missiles over and hit ships in the Red Sea.

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But like the captain said, uh, they're not very accurate,

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and the chances of them hitting somebody are slim. Possible,

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but slim. But the blockade is definitely definitely working. Brian

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Hook he comes from the diplomatic core, and he thinks

356
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this blockade thing is very smart.

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Speaker 6: I think there is a reason for hope, and that's

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largely because the diplomats have been supported by first military pressure.

359
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With the military campaign that ran over a month. Now

360
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this conflict has entered an entirely new phase, which is

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now being described as economic fury, and that's really the

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successor to the maximum pressure campaign that was in President

363
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Trump's first term. I think this is tactically very smart,

364
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and that's because it comes at a time when the

365
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Iranian economy is on the precipice of economic collapse. Just

366
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consider some of these stats. Inflation in Iran is some

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of the highest in the world. It's running it around

368
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fifty percent, the currency has lost almost all of its value,

369
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and growth is it zero. The Iranian regime relies entirely

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on oil revenue to pay its military and to pay

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its government and to subsidize its people. Those oil sales

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generate one hundred and forty million dollars in revenue per day.

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Speaker 2: That's over.

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Speaker 6: This economic blockade of Iran is creating a massive cash

375
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crunch for a government that relies entirely on cash. So

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when their diplomats go to the negotiating table, they're coming

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to it from a position of weakness, and our diplomats

378
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are coming to it from a position of strength. Well,

379
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I think it's only worth going to Pakistan if it's

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very clear that the Iranians are willing to come to

381
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Islamabad to get serious about our red lines, which General

382
00:23:30,839 --> 00:23:34,119
Kine earlier talked about. I completely agree with his analysis

383
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on this.

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Speaker 2: We now have the.

385
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Speaker 6: Leverage to get the deal that we've always wanted, the

386
00:23:38,799 --> 00:23:43,759
deal that Alius has eluded Presidents Obama and Biden. This

387
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is a historic opportunity, and I think President Trump has

388
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the leverage to get the deal around no enrichment, no centrifuges,

389
00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:55,240
no more of these long range missiles. You have to

390
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stop funding proxies like Hesbo, lah In, Lebanon and Hamas

391
00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:02,119
and all of these proxies that have killed so many

392
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Americans over so many decades. So I think the Iranian

393
00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:10,240
regime is likely to make some concessions. They just need

394
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to be the concessions that honor our red lines. And

395
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I think it's a very good sign that during the ceasefire,

396
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while we have been opening the Strait of Hormuz, that

397
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the Iranian regime has not attacked any of our ships,

398
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:25,720
and that seems to me like they are trying to

399
00:24:25,799 --> 00:24:30,599
create good conditions to negotiate something with the United States.

400
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Speaker 2: So count me down as a positive news from all

401
00:24:34,519 --> 00:24:38,680
these experts that are basically saying this blockade is making

402
00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:44,319
all the difference in the world. It has it like this,

403
00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:50,480
mister Hook said, it's economic fury, not Yeah, this is

404
00:24:50,519 --> 00:24:54,000
what this is. They don't have any money, and if

405
00:24:54,039 --> 00:24:57,559
we can keep this going for two more weeks, the

406
00:24:57,599 --> 00:25:02,200
predictions are that they're going to be trying uncle, They're

407
00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:04,200
going to be out of money, they won't be able

408
00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:06,920
to pay their soldiers, they won't be able to pay

409
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:12,720
the IRGC. It's going to collapse on them. And I'm thinking,

410
00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:17,720
what a perfect way to end this war economically, rather

411
00:25:17,759 --> 00:25:21,079
than worth more bombs. However, with all this good news

412
00:25:21,079 --> 00:25:23,799
and the experts talking about how this is the way

413
00:25:23,839 --> 00:25:27,039
to go and it's meaningful and will have an impact

414
00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:31,599
and can maybe bring this war to an end, one

415
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:35,079
person is not happy with this blockade. He doesn't think

416
00:25:35,119 --> 00:25:40,240
it's a good idea. It's none other than Chuck Schumer.

417
00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:45,559
Speaker 7: Pree metric indicates that Donald Trump's handling of Operation Epic

418
00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:50,559
Fury has been an epic failure. Donald Trump promised this

419
00:25:50,599 --> 00:25:53,759
war would be won in a matter of days or weeks.

420
00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:57,680
It's now day forty seven. This trade Cornus is not

421
00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:02,640
only closed, it's becoming Aian cash cow, and Iran controls

422
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:06,279
the Strait is greater today than before Trump's than before

423
00:26:06,599 --> 00:26:07,839
when Trump started the war.

424
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Speaker 2: I don't know who's feeding him his information, but it's

425
00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:13,240
not a cash cow for Ron at all. Is cut

426
00:26:13,279 --> 00:26:17,680
off their cash and they don't control the Spader Parmus

427
00:26:17,839 --> 00:26:22,599
at all. The United States Navy does. Tom Cotton, who's

428
00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:24,240
a veteran, had.

429
00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:28,599
Speaker 8: This to say, regrettable that Democratic senators like Chuck Schumer,

430
00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:32,559
as most Democrats in Congress, and the liberal media would

431
00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:35,079
root against American troops to succeed if it meant that

432
00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:37,799
Donald Trump and Benjamin Netnil who failed. But that's basically

433
00:26:37,839 --> 00:26:40,039
where we hear from the Democrats is they don't want

434
00:26:40,039 --> 00:26:42,319
to see Donald Trump succeed and therefore they're rooting for

435
00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:45,480
an American failure. But almost everything Chuck Schumer said there

436
00:26:45,799 --> 00:26:48,799
is false. As you heard from Admiral Cooper, our military

437
00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:51,200
is either on time or head of schedule on every

438
00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:55,039
single line of effort, missiles, missile launchers, drones, their navy,

439
00:26:55,079 --> 00:26:58,200
their air force, and now Iran is on the economic

440
00:26:58,319 --> 00:27:00,400
ropes as well. They tried to close it's the straight

441
00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:02,920
up her moves. We've always known they could temporarily do that,

442
00:27:03,319 --> 00:27:06,200
but we have the power to either permanently close it

443
00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:08,880
either everything comes out or nothing comes out at all,

444
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:11,440
or to permanently open it. So the ball really is

445
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:13,319
back in Iran's court, but time is not on their

446
00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:16,240
side because they are losing hundreds of millions of dollars

447
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:19,279
of badly needed revenue every single day this blockade's in place.

448
00:27:20,039 --> 00:27:24,119
Speaker 2: Well, Cotton is right, Schumer. I don't know where he

449
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:26,920
got the idea that it was a cash cow for Iran.

450
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:30,279
It's just the opposite. It was a cash cow for them.

451
00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:34,000
It's the only time in war where the country that

452
00:27:34,039 --> 00:27:37,440
we're fighting is actually making money off the war. Up

453
00:27:37,599 --> 00:27:43,279
until the blockade, that has changed everything one hundred and

454
00:27:43,319 --> 00:27:47,799
eighty degrees. Azilla Favi she was the bureau chief for

455
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:51,160
the Wall Street Journal in Tehran. Not only longer she fled,

456
00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:54,599
she still has friends and family there, and this is

457
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:56,079
what her reaction is.

458
00:27:56,400 --> 00:28:00,160
Speaker 9: Karin, I take it seriously, and that is because the blockade,

459
00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:03,880
the blockade of the blockade is targeting Iran's economy, and

460
00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:08,119
Iran's economy was already fragile. So the Iranian regime might

461
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:12,200
be able to withstand this blockade for a couple of days,

462
00:28:12,519 --> 00:28:15,559
but if it's extended, it's going to hurt them, and

463
00:28:15,599 --> 00:28:19,680
so I do take the threat seriously. It appeared yesterday

464
00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:23,880
they were complying with the with the blockade, and they

465
00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:25,960
said some of the ships had turned around. But the

466
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:30,720
threats that came today with serious and igr IRGC commander

467
00:28:30,799 --> 00:28:33,799
talked about it and Iranian official talked about it. So

468
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:36,759
I think if they want to cause disruption, they can,

469
00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:41,359
and they have already created quite disruption in the Persian Gulf.

470
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:42,279
Speaker 1: Uh.

471
00:28:42,519 --> 00:28:47,400
Speaker 9: The perception widely is that the United States is targeting

472
00:28:47,559 --> 00:28:50,400
Iran's economy. You know, the economy was not in a

473
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:54,279
good shape before the war. Since the ceasefire, the only

474
00:28:54,359 --> 00:28:58,319
thing people are telling me about is crazy prices, like

475
00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:02,880
even the price of potato quadrupled in a day. People

476
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:07,160
are very worried that the blockade is going to worsen

477
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:10,480
the economy. The inflation and it's going to lead to

478
00:29:10,519 --> 00:29:15,200
the collapse of the Iranian economy. And these are not

479
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:17,960
middle class Iranians I talk to. A lot of them

480
00:29:18,119 --> 00:29:23,319
are wealthy, well off Iranians who are really concerned about inflation.

481
00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:27,000
Speaker 2: So if the economy collapses, so should the government. And

482
00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:31,480
again I keep I'm rooting for a World War two

483
00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:37,599
type of surrendered document and arrest the people that are

484
00:29:37,839 --> 00:29:41,720
signing the document, take over the country, and then turn

485
00:29:41,759 --> 00:29:44,319
it over to the people after you get everything set

486
00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:47,440
back up for the people to vote for their own leaders.

487
00:29:47,839 --> 00:29:50,640
If I was running the world, that that would be

488
00:29:50,759 --> 00:29:55,880
the solution. I ran across. Some good news for President Trump.

489
00:29:56,240 --> 00:30:00,839
He's been It's an interesting when it comes to politics.

490
00:30:01,519 --> 00:30:04,000
There's been a lot the media has been about the

491
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:08,279
fact that Donald Trump's not popular. His popularity, his approval

492
00:30:08,319 --> 00:30:11,720
readings have taken a dive. They're down in forty percent,

493
00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:15,400
high thirty percent, somewhere in there. Nobody likes him. He's

494
00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:19,640
everything he does is wrong. That's the reporting that you hear.

495
00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:25,359
But Harry Anton, who take a look at all of this, says,

496
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:28,519
you know what, there's a group of people in this

497
00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:33,880
country that are very positive about what Donald Trump is doing.

498
00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:37,240
And that group of people, as I've been taught many,

499
00:30:37,279 --> 00:30:40,680
many years ago, the people that are the most important

500
00:30:40,680 --> 00:30:45,519
to politicians are senior citizens because they vote.

501
00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:49,799
Speaker 10: Here's Harry, because President Trump is more than holding his

502
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:53,119
own amongst a very large portion in the electorate, a

503
00:30:53,279 --> 00:30:56,559
very reliable voting block, and that is senior citizens. Take

504
00:30:56,559 --> 00:30:58,880
a look here, Okay, Trump's approval rating age sixty five

505
00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:02,160
plus in March of twenty twenty five, forty six percent.

506
00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:05,559
Look at where it is now. It's basically the same.

507
00:31:05,759 --> 00:31:08,839
Seniors have not moved. He's at forty four percent now.

508
00:31:09,039 --> 00:31:11,759
And the key nugget here is for all this, it

509
00:31:11,839 --> 00:31:15,599
turns out that older voters, senior citizens vote in far

510
00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:20,079
larger numbers. So Republicans look at this number and they say, hey,

511
00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:23,039
you know what, we can actually potentially do some real

512
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:25,160
damage or at least hold her own in the midterms

513
00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:27,759
because President Trump is holding his own with this very

514
00:31:27,799 --> 00:31:31,039
important voting block. It turns out, if you'll look at

515
00:31:31,079 --> 00:31:34,400
all the twenty first century second term presidents and you'll

516
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:37,279
look at senior citizens, Trump actually is the best approval

517
00:31:37,359 --> 00:31:39,680
rating at this point the second term of all of them.

518
00:31:39,880 --> 00:31:42,759
Donald Trump at forty four percent. Obama was under forty

519
00:31:42,799 --> 00:31:45,480
percent at third nine percent. George W. Bush was way

520
00:31:45,519 --> 00:31:48,119
down there at thirty four percent. So Donald Trump is

521
00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:51,599
beating other presidents this century at this point their second term,

522
00:31:51,720 --> 00:31:54,960
beating all of them. And therefore, as I said, holding

523
00:31:55,039 --> 00:31:58,119
his own amongst a very key voting block, the president

524
00:31:58,119 --> 00:32:00,000
of United States in the White House should like this now,

525
00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:02,680
especially compared to Obama, who Trump, of course always likes.

526
00:32:02,599 --> 00:32:04,000
Speaker 2: To be And this was okay.

527
00:32:04,039 --> 00:32:06,079
Speaker 10: So, you know, we spoke about the mid term elections,

528
00:32:06,119 --> 00:32:08,680
so you know, oftentimes I asked myself, Okay, you know,

529
00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:12,119
the President isn't obviously up for election this November, but

530
00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:14,680
Republicans in the House are, and so I think just

531
00:32:14,759 --> 00:32:17,480
making this comparison, right, you know, we've seen a lot

532
00:32:17,519 --> 00:32:19,960
of folks saying, oh, Republicans doom when it comes to

533
00:32:20,039 --> 00:32:22,160
midterm elections, But just take a look at this choice

534
00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:24,519
for election among age sixty five plus. Back in November

535
00:32:24,519 --> 00:32:27,319
of twenty twenty four, Trump won that group by one point.

536
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:30,720
We've seen some movement, but really not that much movement.

537
00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:33,039
Democrats are head by three in the race for Congress,

538
00:32:33,119 --> 00:32:35,440
and as John and I were talking about, this could

539
00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:38,720
cost Republicans the House. But a number like this suggests

540
00:32:38,759 --> 00:32:41,960
to me that Republicans very very well and are likely

541
00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:44,000
to hold the Senate. This is what we've seen in

542
00:32:44,039 --> 00:32:46,359
the polling data. When we look nationally, we see that

543
00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:48,519
the movement, simply put, isn't there. And when you get

544
00:32:48,559 --> 00:32:51,680
the most reliable voting block basically Republicans holding their home

545
00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:54,039
with maybe some slight movement of Democrats, these are the

546
00:32:54,079 --> 00:32:56,359
types of numbers that I think Republicans have to be

547
00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:56,920
pleased with.

548
00:32:57,000 --> 00:32:59,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, so there's a different side to the stories that

549
00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:01,680
you see all the time about the Republicans are in

550
00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:05,559
the dump and Trump nobody likes them, and everything's going

551
00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:09,000
bad and the Senate's going to go to the Democrats.

552
00:33:09,519 --> 00:33:13,240
It's still offully early. But I thought Harry Enton's interest

553
00:33:13,519 --> 00:33:16,480
and I was told, oh gosh, many I probably thirty

554
00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:20,160
forty years ago by one of the smartest STRATU election

555
00:33:20,279 --> 00:33:22,960
strategists that I've ever met. He was a Democrat, and

556
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:26,799
he said, the most important voting block are seniors, and

557
00:33:26,839 --> 00:33:32,000
the second most important voting block are affluent senior males.

558
00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:38,839
So Republicans doing better than you think they are. We'll

559
00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:41,200
see what happens in November. It's still a ways off.

560
00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:44,559
Have a couple of items about the economy. This Thursday

561
00:33:44,599 --> 00:33:48,680
morning jobs report came out first time jobless claims two

562
00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:53,599
hundred and seven thousand. That was well below what was

563
00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:58,559
expected two hundred and fifteen. So the Unemployment Office is

564
00:33:59,519 --> 00:34:03,759
staying fairly steady. And that's a decent number. But there's

565
00:34:03,799 --> 00:34:07,519
not a lot of layoffs when you get two hundred

566
00:34:07,519 --> 00:34:11,719
and seven thousand number. The job market is still giving

567
00:34:12,760 --> 00:34:17,960
a solid reason for the Fed not to reduce interest rates.

568
00:34:18,400 --> 00:34:22,280
Another president's grumbling again about Jay Powell, and that's another

569
00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:26,519
whole show. But I doubt that they are next meeting

570
00:34:26,559 --> 00:34:28,719
will this will give them no reason for them to

571
00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:32,800
cut interest rates at all. As far as your gas

572
00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:39,440
and oil prices out there, surprise surprise, gasoline prices the

573
00:34:39,519 --> 00:34:44,400
national average four dollars and nine cents. That is down

574
00:34:44,679 --> 00:34:48,199
eight cents from a week ago. Still expensive, four to

575
00:34:48,239 --> 00:34:53,360
oh nine d sol You truckers five dollars sixty one cents,

576
00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:58,320
that's also down eight cents from a week ago. Washington

577
00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:01,559
and California are the two most the only two states

578
00:35:01,599 --> 00:35:07,239
with average gas price above five and oil prices well,

579
00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:09,920
let's get to that. Let's get to how Wall Street

580
00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:12,639
did today and will include the oil prices in that.

581
00:35:13,159 --> 00:35:16,480
The Dow was up a little, down a little all

582
00:35:16,559 --> 00:35:20,360
day long, finished on an upswing. The Dow up one

583
00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:24,440
hundred and fourteen to close at forty eight thousand and

584
00:35:24,599 --> 00:35:30,599
five seventy eight. The SMP this is a new high

585
00:35:30,679 --> 00:35:35,760
up eighteen to seven thousand and forty one. NASDAK also

586
00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:39,679
new high, up eighty six. The price of gold fell

587
00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:43,920
nine dollars down to four thousand and eight fourteen, and

588
00:35:44,119 --> 00:35:49,000
oil prices up two dollars today ninety three dollars for

589
00:35:49,119 --> 00:35:54,239
that one barrel of West Texas Intermediate. Thursday, the Freddy

590
00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:58,960
Mac mortgage survey interest rates coming down a little bit.

591
00:35:59,559 --> 00:36:02,679
Average mortgage rate for a thirty year fixed rate mortgage

592
00:36:02,679 --> 00:36:07,880
across the country six point three zero percent. So that's

593
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:11,400
it for today. Thank you for coming by. We will

594
00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:13,760
be back tomorrow and I hope to see you then