Speaker 1: Well, Grant, I picked the Nuggets to beat the Clippers
in five games. Denver maybe look like a pool, but
I had built up goodwill. I picked up to win
the title. Winde went else did and they went ahead
and won in twenty twenty three. I also picked up
in twenty twenty four. That didn't work out so well
for your guy here. They now faced the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Let's go through as our narratives, our tactical questions. Let's
begin there before we get the predictions and X factor.
So tactically, what are you looking at with this series?
Speaker 2: A couple of things for the Thunder. I wonder like
they've gone with the two big looks. I think that's
really interesting. It's just like you almost have to have
Hardenstein out there just for the size against the Jokic.
But I do wonder how much we'll see Chet at center.
Looks that really strained Denver's defense and force Jokic to
either just like you know, pretend to guard a perimeter
player or actually guard a perimeter player, depending on who
the Thunder put out there, and have like major help
responsibilities too. If you can get away with Chet guarding
Jokic for long stretches. I think that really really benefits
the Thunder, Not that they're gonna need a lot of
benefits probably, but that's that's something I'm interested to see
if if they try they being okay, see just to see, like,
you know, do you or do you? And if that
doesn't work, do you then as the Thunder have to
turn to some more like gimmicky stuff against Jokic when
Hartenstein's not on the floor.
Speaker 1: So I kind of had the same question with just
like how much of the dual big stuff are you
gonna see from Oklahoma City and the Thunder again regular season?
It's only a twenty seven minute sample size eleven point
five net rating with Chet and Hartenstein against the Nuggets
when at least two of Jokic, Russ, and Aaron Gordon
are on the floor. And I'm just curious with depending
on how much Denver utilizes Russ, do you think that
makes it? Will that convinced the Thunder maybe sometimes want
to go to more of the dual big looks because
that's someone in theory. Yeah, if you have Chet, it's
gonna be Hartenstein. You can put Chet on Russell Westbrook
and kind of just float around out there, like, that's
I'm curious to see if they would go with that
or if they viewed those looks, especially if Aaron Gordon
isn't on the court, Is that their opportunity to say, no, hey,
like let's let's have our one big let's have our
one big setup going right now.
Speaker 2: I mean, and this isn't this wasn't my tactical pick
for Denver, but I think we got to talk about
it now. Is like is this a Russell Westbrook series
at all? Like can't like if you can guard Russ
with Chet, which turns Chet into just a Rover, like
good luck, like you just that's just.
Speaker 3: I mean, I I and like the fact.
Speaker 2: Is Denver sort of has to play Russ and that's
a huge that's a huge problem because you're just the
giveth and take it the way of it all. Like, yeah,
I hadn't really thought about that one, but I think
that has to be addressed.
Speaker 1: Me.
Speaker 3: I hope that wasn't your specific one.
Speaker 1: Well, also off of the follow up one on this
is then for Denver, Christian Brown on Shakos Alexander, like
that's just done, like lock in on that for the
most part, What is the best option to go against
J Dub. And I've watched back some stuff and it's
we saw MPJ, we saw Russ, we saw Peyton Watson.
Of course, I don't like what is I think when
you're looking at okay, what MPJ brings you offensively that
you want him on the floor so long as the
fact that he's playing right now basically with one arm
is incredible. Yeah, and so do you want him to
be You probably don't want him in situation that we
also have to you need him for the three point
the scoring, and then he's gonna find some time on
J dub. And now I'm thinking about it, just does
it feel like a Russ is gonna have to be
on Jay Dubb? Then we saw some of it during
the regular season, and the thinking here would be as
untrustworthy as Russell Westbrook is on the offensive end. It
feels like Peyton Watson is more of a wild card there.
So unless you're gonna like and you're not gonna want
Aaron Gordon doing any of this, maybe some Jamal Murray,
but like this is I'm just I'm going through the listen.
I don't know who the ideal like And it's not
all about the single matchups. I get it, but it's
just Christian Brown lock in on Shae and then it's okay, well,
like what are you doing with JDub?
Speaker 3: So mine's related?
Speaker 2: Mine's mine was just kind of like, is Aaron Gordon
gonna spend more time on Jadab or Chet? Cause like
you definitely don't want I don't think you want MPG
or murray on like either of those guys as like
to the extent you can limit that, I don't think
it's possible to really limit that. You're gonna have exposure
with one of them defensively, So do you decide.
Speaker 3: As the nuggets?
Speaker 1: All right?
Speaker 2: We just have to have Gordon on Jadab because then
it's gonna force a third person to do more of
the offensive initiating, assuming Brown can hang with SGA a
little bit.
Speaker 3: And maybe that's how.
Speaker 4: Denver like makes the thunder offense like gum up a
little bit.
Speaker 2: Is if you just use your other your only other
really good defensive player on Jadab But like then it's
so you're guarding Chet with who like.
Speaker 3: Is that MPG? I don't like.
Speaker 4: I don't love that. Do you try Russ out there?
Speaker 2: Do you use murray on Chet somehow like I just
invite you know, Duckins and that kind of thing. It's
just Denver just doesn't happen. The fact that we're you're
bringing up Russ as like maybe you're gonna have to
use him defensively, that's that's a that's a problem.
Speaker 1: Yeah, even what they definitely they showed another level defensively
against the Clippers, for sure. I even thought, I mean
this is more so thunder related though you were mentioning
if you can have Chet Rome. We saw Harden on
Jokic in that Clipper series. We've seen JDub defense centers
in the past. Is it is that like a misallocation
of resource if you're like, okay, we're when you want
to go one big and Yokic is on the floords like
we're gonna put Jdubb on Jokich and Chet like he
can be on Aaron Gordon or maybe it's Russ.
Speaker 2: That's a great wrinkle, that's a fun like because yeah,
I mean you could if you if you get it,
who better than Okac to just have a shooting guard
guard Yokic and figure it out. Because they had to
play that way for a month or whatever it was
I mean, yeah, that's another got The Thunder have so
many This is the the through line of this series
for me is like the Thunder have so many options
that like they they can approach this so many different
ways tactically, and I don't feel like Denver has nearly
that luxury. Denver can do like two different things and
it's like I'm not even sure about one of them.
Speaker 1: Who is your excuming? What are you watching narratively from
this series? What's the biggest storyline?
Speaker 4: Uh?
Speaker 2: For the Thunder side of it, it's this is gonna
be the case for a lot of the high seeds
that have advanced. But it's like, can you take down
the best offensive player in the league in Jokic and
and sort of like add a little tick mark, you know,
next on the resume of like historic season, one of
the best defenses ever, Like all these wins knocked Jokic
out without much trouble.
Speaker 3: Like then you're.
Speaker 2: Starting to build a case as you know, for we're
gonna have to talk about the Thunder if they go
all the way and you know, then beat Boston or
Cleveland or whatever in the finals, as like, yeah, this
team actually was just one of the best teams we've
seen in however many you know, like just knocking Jokic
out would be a huge point of validation.
Speaker 1: Also, just did they make like did the Isaiah Hartenstein
an acquisition and of Like, However, this is a series
where for that the thing that I don't I think
people be conditioned to look at and it's not when
Shay's off the floor, it's just the secondary offense even
if he's on the floor. I don't know, Like this
just doesn't feel the series where I would glean enough
from it, because what can the Nuggets do that's really
gonna throw shake gild Alexander. I think the Memphis probably
like might have thrown more things at him. Then we'll
see Denver do where it feels like they're gonna be
very locked in on one or two guys. We'll have
to be the focus there. So that is something to watch.
Like he Jdubb doing a lot better at creating for
himself getting into the lane, Like when he gets in
the lane that some of the change of pace and
direction stuff there that matters. But it's just like this
not the stakes don't feel low for the Thunder if
they lost this series and would have to look inward
a lot. It feels more so I look at kind
of just okay, like did did they make the moves
that like got them past the team that was bigger
and could play physical? Like this is the team you
did that? Like even more so than a Memphis it's
it's the Denver, it's the Minnesota's.
Speaker 2: No, that's a great point, like that the Thunder had
to do what they did to play in series like
this against you know, to the extent there are players
like Jokic, you know, they've they went out and made
the effort to like equip themselves to handle that kind
of thing. H So it will be a referendum on
those movies. I think for Denver, like this is the
challenge of like the Thunder might just not be a
fair measuring stick because they might be historically great. But
if you go out quickly or it's pretty clear that
you just like this Denver roster, even with Jokic, and
even if Murray does play well, like just doesn't have
the options or the answers to beat a team like this,
then it's like, well, what changes can we realistically make,
you know, in addition to figuring out who's going to
be our head coach next year, and who's going to
make the you know, front office decisions like do you
start thinking about Gordon or MPG trades or whatever like.
But you have to view all that through the lens
of like, well, like who could have beaten the thunder?
And the answer might just be nobody. So like the
push and pull of that is going to be interesting
for me.
Speaker 1: I do think, so I look at it the same way,
but I'm also looking at it from the perspective of,
all right, well, how valuable are Peyton Watson and Christian
Round really? And I focus more so I defensively, sure
you might learn stuff about them, But on the offensive end,
when you're looking at guys that are coming up on
extension eligibility, Christian Brown shootings under twenty percent from three
in the but not great by right, and so how
much do you pay him in an extension? And is
it time to consider well, if you're gonna make if
you're moving one of the bigger contracts as standalone value,
I don't know that it has a ton. But now
if you say, all right, like we're willing to move
one or both of these guys, like that changes a
lot of your options, not advocating for it necessarily, but
I do think like this is kind of a series
when you're looking at some of the stuff that the
Thunder might pull defensively, or maybe even some of the
lineups that they run out there, where this might teach
us a lot about well, how much should Denver value
those two young guys specifically moving forward? Yeah? Good one,
what is your X factor for let's go with Okay?
Speaker 2: See, I mean it's just that I think my whole
lead up to this has been like, I don't know
if there's a guy that's like make or break for
them that I don't know what I'm getting. I guess
as we've talked about it, I would lean towards Jalen
Williams because one, he theoretically should be test, you know,
tested as an offensive creator. We've we've said plenty of times,
as long as he's out there with one of the
good bigs, the offense is fine. But I think that's
going to be a pressure point.
Speaker 3: And then the.
Speaker 2: Potential to play like gimmicky defense with him guarding Jokic,
I think is fascinating. So it can he handle that?
Is that a viable like five minute strategy? Per game
for then for for okay, see, and if it's not,
then you have to like kind of readjust who's gonna
be guarding Jokic. So I think it's him, but it's
it's hard to find one for the Thunder who's yours.
Speaker 1: I think I'm just gonna go with Isaiah Hartenstein because
it is hard to find one for the Thunder because
he'll determine maybe, well, how many dual big minutes are
we getting and what does he just look like defending
Nikole Jokic? Can he stay out of foul trouble because
you know, even if he stays out of foul trouble
like this is Jet doesn't have the body type to
where you want to see him play this that matchup
in high volume.
Speaker 3: Right yeah.
Speaker 2: I think actually the odds are if chet Is is
the guy assigned to Jokic, it will just be as
part of a gimmicky like you know, fronting and doubling
from behind kind of thing, because I mean, Jokic will
just put him in the basket right like that.
Speaker 3: That that feels like.
Speaker 2: The Thunder don't have to give like a like a
soft target like that. And Chet's like someone who we
both think might win Defensive Player of the Year at
some point, but it's not because he like holds up
in the post against three hundred pounders.
Speaker 1: Right, and we're just obligated. Aaron Wiggins is always, He's
the forever, always who's your X factor for Denver?
Speaker 2: So I went MPJ because I think he's gonna because
of the way the Thunder play defense, and because of
how tiny the windows to score are, Like he just
has to be like a hot potato, like quick trigger
every the second year Open, it's got to go up.
And he's got to be like a major spacing threat,
and that has to be guarded, like, you know, nobody
gets the Steph Curry treatment, but like you have to
face guard him, you know, or you have to trail
him everywhere.
Speaker 3: You can't help off of him. If he can be
like that.
Speaker 2: And the injury makes it hard, He's just not someone
that's gonna create anything, I don't think against any of
the Thunders defenders. So MPG just has to be like,
you know, making five, six, seven threes more than once
and has to be a massive threat because and if
he's not, I just don't I just don't know what
Denver does for a reliable offense.
Speaker 1: I think that's a good one, but for variety's sake,
I'll just go with Peyton Watson. It's how he doesn't
play a ton versus the Clippers, and in theory, that's
a team and it felt like he maybe should have
played more against What does that look like against the
thunder who like they don't necessarily play ultra fast, but
they can and they're physical and sometimes they're gonna play small. Yeah,
and if you mentioned MPJ and then the shoulder issue,
like if he does if he's not able to hold
up defensively, do you want him on the court. And
if he's not well, then Peyton Watson's like a name,
like if you're gonna throw him in or do you
want Peyton Watts Peyton Watson on the court to help
insulate Michael Porter Junior defensively, I'm curious to see what
his usage looks like him is. That's why he's an
extractor for me, because I honestly have no idea how
much he's gonna play against.
Speaker 3: Okay, see, just just another one real quick.
Speaker 2: This might just be tactical too, but like if Caruso
can just blow up the the Murray Jokic like hand
off screen game.
Speaker 3: Then it's like Denver might score fifty points a night.
Like they're just like if he can, cause I don't know,
I maybe Dort.
Speaker 2: You might even say Dort could do some of this too,
if he just refuses to be screened, Like if if
you short circuit any of the two man Murray Jokic stuff,
I just don't know where the the you know, Jokic
may just figure it out, but like that's that's like
almost fatal.
Speaker 4: It seems like for Denver, what's your prediction?
Speaker 2: So I think the last series I picked the Nuggets
because of like Jokic period, and you know he'll figure Like,
like I just said, he'll.
Speaker 3: Figure it out.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go thunder in, I'll go thunder and six.
Speaker 1: I just I just like I think.
Speaker 3: The Thunder overwhelming. I think their defense is so good.
Speaker 2: They're they're so they can be so tactically diverse if
they want to, And it's like, who are you picking on?
There's no half the time we're doing series previous, it's like,
oh what about this weak point? Like okay, well who's
the Thunders? Who are you going at on the Thunder?
I just I don't know.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go thunder in five because I think that
there's a real chance. And this is not I was
probably two down on the Nuggets entering their Clipper series,
and they did like Jamal Murray the forty Burger, like
coming up bag there, like they did a bunch of
different things. I think that we're gonna look back that
there's a real chance. And I say this with all
due respect to the Cavaliers and the Celtics, and I
did say this about the Celtics at the end of
last year, and we realized that we just overthought like
this entire fucking exercise. I haven't done it before, yep.
And this team is so good, so deep, so versatile,
and in theory, they don't have like a weakness. Maybe
it's the three point volume, but Chet just gets them up.
And then it used to be the secondary offense and
it's well, you have Hartenstein, NJ. Dubb and Chet and
now the shake Gildes Alexander lists minutes. They just don't
they don't need to. Well, I guess against Memphis they
existed a lot, but that's a different that's a different
reason why they existed a lot. And so I really
just think that I'm tended to go six like you did,
just because I have all the respect in the world
for Jo Kich and Murray, and like, this team's like
the Nuggets too. There they've punched back when their back
has been up against the wall. Here I wrote them
off leading into the Clipper series. I just firing your
coach that close to the end of the season and
you're your lead front obviously executive, It just felt like
that team would be in shambles. Nicole Yaku is the
greatest basketball player live. The Thunder just have It's not
that they just have more good basketball players, because I
think that you could get it's they just have more
players and more more optionality to the way that they're
able to carry themselves. And I think that's going to
be the ultimate difference here. And look the things that
I'll say during the non Hartenstein minutes, the things that
they might be able to do to Yo Kitsch defensively,
we didn't really talk about that there. They might be
the people that want Jokic to be bad on defense
or say like, oh, like you could like he can't
do this. This is the team that I think could
maybe exploit him a little bit and make it look
more egregious than it actually is.
Speaker 2: I think that there's a great possibility of that. I'm
glad you're having that that overthinking it thing with the Thunder,
because I even it.
Speaker 4: Was Memphis, so like, okay, what are we really gonna learn?
Speaker 2: But it's like you just stack that series up against
the whole season and what we kind of maybe thought
going into the year, and it's like I have that
exact feeling of like I kind of think the Thunder
have some like inevitable vibes, right.
Speaker 1: You know, it's they ranked fifth, this is per b
ball indeck and like the total amount of value lost
to injury this season, and they just still ran the tables.
So it's just there's just all these indicators that are
plotting towards the Thunder championship favorites, and there's just no
one's gonna beat them. I think I like Boston or
Cleveland would be a fun matchup either one of the finals,
but the Thunder going to be There's you couldn't talk
to me about the other Western Conference semi finals. I'm
gonna pick the Thunder to make the finals if I
had to do it right now, and I'm curious what
a loss in this series would mean for especially if
it happens in four or five. And it's not like
I guess at the point differentials kind of like Nick's
piston Z and it's oh, like okay when like, well
that series less longer of course, So thunder in five
from me.
Speaker 4: All right, thanks everybody for listening, for watching.
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Speaker 2: Close It's always been a Shout with Franklin Lacina and
an apology to Jared Allen