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Speaker 1: All right, welcome in everyone. It is time for full

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court press. It is also five dollars Tuesday. As promised yesterday,

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I have a five percenter up which is not part

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of five dollars Tuesday. Apologies that that fell on Tuesday

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because it's still full price. But you can get around

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that by just jumping on the double. The Firepower CBB

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package for myself and Rob. You get all of our plays,

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and if you email in to our great customer support team,

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you can get it for the rest of the season.

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Speaker 2: Rob, we were on.

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Speaker 1: Kind of the same page yesterday with Louisville. That was

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my only play for clients. Very disappointing that Pat Kelsey

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just cannot win a big game. I know he hasn't

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been there that long, but it just seems like every

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time Louisville is on Big Monday or in a big spot,

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they just don't win.

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Speaker 2: I thought yesterday would be different.

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Speaker 1: I love the matchup for them, you know, to talk

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about your team total, I mean, even like a half

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decent effort wins that game for Louisville in my opinion,

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and that there were so many bad shots and yet

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still here they are at the end of the game,

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down three, and I just, you know, I just felt

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like you deserve better with Louisville in that game. So frustrating,

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to say the least. It was my only play. How

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is your Monday?

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Speaker 3: Aside from that, yeah, well that wasn't good because I

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had the Louisville team total over eighty one and a

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half at him, and like you say, they get the

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seventy four and go scoreless for the first six minutes

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of the second half, they don't make a shot for

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six minutes and still get the seventy four. So, like

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you say, anything half decent over that six minute stretch

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could have obviously changed the ATS outcome, certainly could have

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changed the team total outcome, but it is what it is.

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I followed that up with a small play on Houston

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first half against Kansas and control of the first almost

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the entire way, at least the first fifteen minutes, and

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then the roof caved in and that didn't get there.

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So not a good day yesterday. Too small plays, too

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small losses. Need to get back on track today, though,

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Really disappointed with both of those efforts out of Louisville.

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And then, of course, if you extend Houston out to

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the full game result. You realize three straight losses and

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not really good in the second half against KU, So

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credit to Kansas again. Before we start our opening game

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here feature play. I will say this about Melvin Counsel Junior.

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I mean he must have mentioned his name half a dozen,

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seven eight times this year. Fantastic play out of him

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again yesterday Kansas had a lot of good efforts, but

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it just Counsel to me, boy Saint Bonnie could use it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, I'll just say, you know, I Chris,

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I mean Chris in the chat says, you know Houston

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and Louisville got smoke last night.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, they did. This was yesterday.

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Speaker 1: It was one of those days where I kind of

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wished I trusted my extra board opinions, all of which

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seemed to win. I got there with you know, I

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kind of got scared off of Rio Grand Valley. With

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the steam throughout the day, you could have got as

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high as as twelve and a half for UTRGV. Yesterday

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they ended up covering all numbers, came back, made that

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a game and got inside the number.

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Speaker 2: There.

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Speaker 1: New Orleans pulls the upset week. I kind of talked

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about thinking that was too many. So in the end,

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Louisville was by far what I like the best, and yeah,

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just didn't work out, but we'll get it going today,

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So Robino, that brings us to today's feature game.

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Speaker 2: I have a couple right now.

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Speaker 1: I have a very short list of things that will

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actually play today. One of those is five Percenter. I

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love it, it's locked and it's up on the site.

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The other one is the game we're going to talk

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about right now. But boy did the overnight market suck

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up all of the value this game. If you if

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you like the Baylor Bears like I do, so let's

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talk nine pm Eastern ESPN two Baylor Arizona and this thing. Now,

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some psites are going to tell you that this open

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twelve and a half, but that is that was a

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very rogue number. That twelve and a half was gone,

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like you know, yeah, some book probably put twelve and

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a half up.

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Speaker 2: At like two pm yesterday. That was gone very quickly.

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Speaker 1: I think it's a reasonable sort of thing to say

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that the opener was ten for this game.

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Speaker 2: But by the time.

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Speaker 1: Most books got it got it up, and even that

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was gone like well into.

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Speaker 2: Early into into the night last night.

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Speaker 1: So by this morning, pretty much eight and a half everywhere,

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I get what I get why that happened?

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Speaker 3: For me?

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Speaker 1: Like you know, and I've been critical this Baylor team

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all year, rob but if there was ever they have

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no showed every single big game this season.

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Speaker 2: They're four and ten of the Big twelve.

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Speaker 1: It just feels like to me, if they were ever

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to show up for game, it's here at home. And

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you got an Arizona team that was battling a team

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wide illness, They had some injuries, and they just put

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in an all out effort to beat Houston over the weekend.

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Speaker 2: So not a good spot for Arizona.

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Speaker 1: But is this coming into the price range where you're

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willing to punch back?

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Speaker 2: Is my question to you.

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Speaker 3: I mean, we talked a lot about spot plays yesterday.

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We've talked a lot about situationals this time of year

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over the course of the last seven to ten days.

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I mean, we really need to bring Marco DiAngelo in

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here for the commentary on us, because this is if

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ever there was a in his terms, a sandwich spot, right,

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it would be here for Arizona. Let's just get beyond

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what happened Saturday, Adam, you got to realize Arizona's come

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off the Big twelve Gauntlet the last four games, right,

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We actually talked about how their schedule was going to

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toughen up, and boy did it ever. But they just

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played a four game stretch where they went to Kansas

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and lost the game when Darren Peterson didn't play. They

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followed that up by going back home and losing in

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overtime to Texas Tech, two of the best teams in

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the league. Two l's home, they play BYU, they get

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a w. Then they have to go to Houston on

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top of all of this for their next game with

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circumstances that you just described, and they get themselves another win.

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So two and two through the goal and now they

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take this breather against Baylor on the road, only to

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have to come back Saturday and play their home revenge

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game against Kansas and then get twenty four hours worth

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of rest and play Iowa State next Monday. I mean,

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the gallless six out of the seven games. It's crazy

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the schedule Arizona's up against here. So to our original point,

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if there was ever a sandwich spot, so to speak,

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you would think that it's here for Arizona. But I'm

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going to bring up one thing that you know just

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scares the heck guy to me about Baylor. Here, Baylor's

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had seven games this year inside the Big Twelve where

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they played one of the top seven defenses inside this conference.

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Their team total has stayed under in six of those seven.

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The only time they got their team total over was

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when they played Iowa State in the rematch and found

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a way to get their team total over. But tonight,

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for those playing totals, the Baylor team total is listed

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at seventy three and a half. They haven't scored seventy

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four in any of those seven games against the top

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seven defenses in the league. You know who's number one, Arizona,

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And so for Baylor to cover in my mind against

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the Arizona defense, hey, Arizona has to just be like whatever,

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it's another game, let's just go win it by three,

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or Baylor's got to shoot lights out because they're gonna

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get nothing on the interior. It just you start going

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through numbers and you realize how difficult it should be

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on normal circuit, normal circumstances for Baylor to score in

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this game. They're not normal circumstances. If I add the

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Louisville game to this stretch for Baylor, because Louisville is

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the number twenty eight defensive efficiency team in the nation.

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They're seven to one under seventy three and a half

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points tonight. If this full game total is to get over,

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and it's been pushed up to one fifty four and

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a half fits to get over, you need a minimum

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eighty three out of Arizona. And that's assuming that Baylor's

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going to get to seventy three in this game. Again,

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you know, spot would lead you to believe. Yet this

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could happen. Arizona might let up, defense, might not be

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all there, et cetera, et cetera, no coopete for the

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third game in a row, whatever, But numbers tell you

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that Baylor's not capable and they're going to have to

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lean on their defense against Arizona keep it lower scoring.

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So one fifty four and a half to me, Adam

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might be a little high, and Baylor team total that

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seventy three and a half might be a little high.

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Like I said, I haven't scored seventy four points in

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any game against a top seven Big twelve defense, And

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if you throw Louisville in, they haven't done it against them.

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They didn't do it against them either. Well, Arizona, you know,

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just score mid seventies, ho hum and win this thing.

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If they do, it's an easy under. So that's the

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way I'm looking here. I'm not looking specifically at side,

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but I'm looking more towards playing some form of under.

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And I have to say, those of you who have

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watched this show since November, the word under doesn't come

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out of my mouth very often, and it's come out

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of my mouth here for this game. So that's the

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way I'm gonna look.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Chris, I did not take that as a as

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a negative. I took it as you were just kind

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of pointing out the you know, the two primetime games

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did not go our way, and you're right, many like

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Louisville went off like a full I think they went

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off minus four. I ended up sitting there thinking, man,

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am I taking a bad number with two and a

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half because again similar to that game, I mean one

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and a half for Louisville was long gone.

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Speaker 2: That was pretty much an overnight number.

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Speaker 1: And I ended up being there with a pretty decent

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number on two and a half at Louisville that went

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off for you know.

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Speaker 2: Similar to So we talk about this all the time.

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Speaker 3: Rob.

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Speaker 1: We do this show in a window where the market

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really moves, and I think we've found our resistance point

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live on air for Baylor. So this got down a

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minute ago as low as seven and a half, which

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is I make this number Arizona minus seven. So you

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can see how at ten I would start to, you know,

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maybe want to jump in with Baylor. As soon as

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it hits seven and a half, it's right back up

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to eight and a half across the board.

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Speaker 2: Makes complete sense.

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Speaker 1: Everyone, everything's gotta buy like, there's always a price that

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someone else is going to buy in.

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Speaker 2: So what we learned just.

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Speaker 1: Now is that that seven and a half, the other

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side was willing to come in on Arizona seven and

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a half, which at least I think keeps it the

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possibility that Arizona maybe steams back in the other direction throughout,

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you know, at some point in the day. But so

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you talked about defense, Rob, like, you know, having Baylor

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having to lean on their defense is less than ideal.

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You know, this is a defense that has been outside

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the top one hundred and defensive efficiency for most of

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the year. This is a you know, something I've noticed

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so you know, my my buddy CT went to Baylor,

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and you know, him and I have gone to Baylor games,

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and you know, I kind of follow Baylor through him,

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and something that we've talked about this year and even

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last year. You know, this was a team that won

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a national championship not that long ago, twenty twenty one.

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Speaker 2: You know, they've they've.

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Speaker 1: Won it in the in the era of like transfer

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portal and nil, like they have a national championship.

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Speaker 2: It's only twenty twenty six. That wasn't that long ago.

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Speaker 1: And the difference between those Baylor teams and the teams

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of the last couple of years is Baylor just gets

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torched by like good offense.

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Speaker 2: They get absolutely smoked.

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Speaker 1: They're like Scott Drew's just not getting the guards that

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like play good defense anymore.

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Speaker 2: And that's a problem of this team.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 2: If you think that maybe.

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Speaker 1: Arizona's in a position where they're going to go through

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the motions a little bit offensively, maybe their offense is

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not as crisp as it typically is, That's where I

245
00:12:18,240 --> 00:12:20,080
think you can make your case for the Baylor cover

246
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because that's what Baylor is actually not terrible offensively. When

247
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you start to look at the numbers. You know, their

248
00:12:26,200 --> 00:12:31,120
top forty offensive efficiency. They forty seven point eight percent

249
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from the field. That's a top fifty mark nationally. You know,

250
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they score eighty two point six points a game, that's

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pretty much a top fifty mark nationally.

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Speaker 2: They don't have the three point.

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Speaker 1: I think the difference between this Baylor team and the

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last couple of Baylor teams that I also thought was

255
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were bad but at least were like.

256
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Speaker 2: Could fool you into thinking that they were good.

257
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Speaker 1: Was the Baylor teams of the last couple of years

258
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could really shoot the three. This Baylor team is inconsistent

259
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from beyond the arc, and that's that's why they're not

260
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able to stay in some of these games. But you know,

261
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it's one of those days where I do think if

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you don't get Arizona's sharpest effort, which coming off of

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a team wide illness, coming off of the Houston win,

264
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coming off of the Gauntlet that you talked about rob BYU,

265
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Houston Texas Tech, all the tough games that they've played,

266
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having to go to Waco in a in sort of

267
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like a you know, a sandwich type spot where maybe

268
00:13:23,600 --> 00:13:26,720
you're looking ahead a little bit. This might be Arizona

269
00:13:26,840 --> 00:13:30,039
not bringing their best effort. I still think Arizona can

270
00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:34,240
win this game without their best effort. But again, Baylor

271
00:13:34,279 --> 00:13:36,879
has not come to play in a big game all year.

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You have to think that that matters a little bit here,

273
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Like you've got to think that that's a motivator for Baylor, Like, hey,

274
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this is your last big game at Foster Pavilion this

275
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year in front of the home fans. Because I think

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they're only remaining home game, They'll probably be a pretty

277
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big favorite in there. It's not like a top team.

278
00:13:53,879 --> 00:13:55,759
I think if Baylor shows up, they can win the game.

279
00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:59,279
I think if Baylor kind of shows up, they probably

280
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stay within ten. So if the market would do me

281
00:14:03,120 --> 00:14:05,879
a favor and steam it back to ten, that would

282
00:14:05,919 --> 00:14:08,320
be great. So I can bet Baylor at the current price,

283
00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:09,480
I don't know if I can do it, but I

284
00:14:09,480 --> 00:14:10,960
still think they probably cover here.

285
00:14:12,519 --> 00:14:15,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, it is one of those games, Adam, where situational

286
00:14:15,559 --> 00:14:21,399
spot can definitely overcome fundamental matchups. If it doesn't, Baylor

287
00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:26,720
gets smoked again. You really you're betting Baylor, and college

288
00:14:26,759 --> 00:14:30,960
basketball is a sport where you know it's often bet

289
00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:34,559
that way. Bet the spot. We talked about it a

290
00:14:34,559 --> 00:14:38,759
little bit yesterday. There couldn't be a more ideal situation

291
00:14:39,039 --> 00:14:41,679
for Baylor to be in than the one they're in

292
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with this opponent walking in tonight. Because you have to

293
00:14:44,279 --> 00:14:47,399
believe Arizona's got their eye on Kansas revenge on Saturday,

294
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There's no question. So we'll see how it goes.

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00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:54,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I just want to wrap it up by saying, like,

296
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I really like Baylor plus the points and I'm just

297
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a really stubborn individual and be cause it. Even though

298
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I don't count that opener at twelve and a half,

299
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I really count it more like ten. I just I

300
00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:09,360
don't know if I can can take what I would

301
00:15:09,360 --> 00:15:12,480
consider not enough at eight and a half. But if this,

302
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like I'll tell you right now, if this gets back

303
00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:16,559
to even nine and a half or ten at some

304
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point today, I'm probably clicking Baylor plus the points.

305
00:15:20,679 --> 00:15:23,000
Speaker 3: Just can we can we get it? Can we get

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a syndicate group to hit the Arizona side really hard? Right? Yes?

307
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Speaker 1: Can someone respected or that, like you know box accounts,

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please bet Arizona for us.

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Speaker 2: It would be much appreciated.

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Speaker 1: Anyway, Look at all the donations rolling and someone alert

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Kelly in Vegas, right, now the donations are coming in

312
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because we're like Rob and I are always like, hey,

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you know we our show gets a lot of donations.

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We just want to know if we're there. We're just

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trying to be the best, that's all Rob and I want.

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So if we get more donations than the other shows,

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that's that's all we really care about. Regardless of what

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show gets it, they all go to a good cause.

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I don't know what the cause is for February yet,

320
00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:06,600
but I'm sure I think last month it was Why

321
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can't I remember the charity from.

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Speaker 3: Last Jad told us it was Opportunity Village in Las

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veg Yes, that's right, an organization that does great work.

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I actually have some you know, secondary personal contact to that.

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A good friend of mine had a sister with Down

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syndrome who actually went there as a teenager who wound

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up working there. So yeah, they do. They do outstanding work.

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But that's the donations go there. For any of you

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that want to know where this money goes, or if

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you're just contributing because you love me and Adam every morning,

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that's great too, but it is going to a really

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really good place.

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Speaker 1: I can voucher that, so thank you RC Colo for

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the supersticker. That's a new one, rob Supersticker. They throw

335
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a new one here every day, super Chat Supersticker.

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Speaker 2: We appreciate you, RC.

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Speaker 1: We do have a number of them top to a game,

338
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so let's uh, I'm just gonna pick these at random.

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Speaker 2: Here.

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Speaker 1: You know, it looks like people want to talk Big

341
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twelve basketball today, so let's keep it going. Let's go

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to I'll get to all of them, but let's start here.

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00:17:12,839 --> 00:17:16,720
This is mad Max. Mad Max has overrated Cincinnati. Yeah,

344
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I gotta I don't know if we can go back

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and edit the part out of Saturday's Last Call show

346
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where I said, oh, it won't matter, Kansas will cover

347
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any number.

348
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Speaker 2: I'd like to have that one back.

349
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Speaker 1: Yeah, overrated Cincinnati coming off of an episode of Kansas underrated.

350
00:17:31,759 --> 00:17:35,839
Texas Tech is at home only lost there first Arizona

351
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Houston thoughts on spread.

352
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Speaker 3: And team total.

353
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Speaker 1: My thought is, is Cincinnati overrated at this point?

354
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Speaker 2: Like or is this just because here? And the reason

355
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I say that is this.

356
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Speaker 1: We are in the era of college basketball where it's

357
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reasonable for a team to like mature over the course

358
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of a season, like where it's like the team figures

359
00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:05,200
it out in February, where they're completely lost in November.

360
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Rob Back in the day, this used to take years,

361
00:18:07,839 --> 00:18:10,759
right like, because you'd have a team, maybe they'd start

362
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to figure out in year one or two, and then

363
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the next year they'd come back and like realize the potential.

364
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But that doesn't really happen in college basketball anymore because

365
00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:20,480
none of these teams are the same from year to year.

366
00:18:20,799 --> 00:18:23,720
So if you think about it like that, and you

367
00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:27,480
start with a team that hasn't played much together, like

368
00:18:27,640 --> 00:18:31,359
theoretically November and December could be a disaster, maybe they

369
00:18:31,359 --> 00:18:32,960
start to figure it out in January.

370
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Speaker 2: Maybe you have to.

371
00:18:34,319 --> 00:18:37,079
Speaker 1: Judge a team by what they've looked like the past

372
00:18:37,160 --> 00:18:40,279
few games, and Cincinnati's looked really good. And then you

373
00:18:40,279 --> 00:18:43,359
look at Wes Miller's career, his teams tend to defend.

374
00:18:44,279 --> 00:18:47,000
So yeah, like you know, it's easy to say, like, oh,

375
00:18:47,039 --> 00:18:50,039
Cincinnati's overrated and whatnot, and they're they're they're probably gonna

376
00:18:50,079 --> 00:18:50,680
get smashed.

377
00:18:51,119 --> 00:18:52,960
Speaker 2: But in this spot, you have a Texas Tech.

378
00:18:52,839 --> 00:18:55,400
Speaker 1: Team that's dealing with injuries, they're they're gonna be without

379
00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:57,119
one of their best players for the rest of the season,

380
00:18:57,799 --> 00:19:01,559
and a Cincinnati team that man they That Kansas game

381
00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:04,640
has me thinking maybe we shouldn't just like knee jerk

382
00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:07,759
that against this team. But boy, do I really not.

383
00:19:07,799 --> 00:19:09,480
I'm not gonna be late. I'm not gonna be late

384
00:19:09,519 --> 00:19:11,480
to the party, Rob, you know, I hate that. So

385
00:19:11,519 --> 00:19:13,680
I don't know if I can bet Cincinnati here, but

386
00:19:13,720 --> 00:19:15,279
I don't know if I can lay it with Texas

387
00:19:15,359 --> 00:19:15,880
Tech either.

388
00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:18,000
Speaker 2: Any thoughts on that? And what about the team total?

389
00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:21,759
Speaker 3: Yeah? I think again. And there's so many of these games,

390
00:19:21,759 --> 00:19:24,039
as I went up and down the card last night

391
00:19:24,079 --> 00:19:27,480
early this morning, and there are so many games where

392
00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:33,119
situational circumstance comes into play. This one, I would say.

393
00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:35,519
The question, at least the question that I had to

394
00:19:35,559 --> 00:19:40,440
ask myself was was the route of Kansas State the

395
00:19:40,480 --> 00:19:45,160
other day by Texas Tech after suffering the devastating loss

396
00:19:45,160 --> 00:19:47,599
of JT topping the prior game. Was that just a

397
00:19:47,799 --> 00:19:51,720
banding of players together, let's go out there, you know,

398
00:19:51,839 --> 00:19:53,960
we'll do it for JT et cetera, et cetera, and

399
00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:57,599
they blew Kansas State out? Or is that just a

400
00:19:57,599 --> 00:20:02,680
product of Kansas State being an absolute dumpster fire at

401
00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:05,440
this point in time? Right? And you could look at

402
00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:08,119
it either way. But I would choose to look at

403
00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:11,599
it from the standpoint that, you know, Texas Tech, you

404
00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:15,279
can't lose a player like JT. Toppin and be as

405
00:20:15,279 --> 00:20:18,839
good as you were consistently game after game after game.

406
00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:21,160
And this one here, this one's interesting because Adam, I'll

407
00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:22,920
tell you what. Back in December, they were calling for

408
00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:26,720
west Miller's head, like the Cincinnati alum, the Cincinnati fan base,

409
00:20:26,799 --> 00:20:29,960
the Cincinnati media wanted west Miller out of there. And

410
00:20:30,519 --> 00:20:32,279
he's kind of turned a corner with this team that

411
00:20:32,279 --> 00:20:36,000
had a couple of solid wins along the way, and

412
00:20:36,039 --> 00:20:38,200
even up until the Kansas game, I think you could

413
00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:40,759
still question Cincinnati by saying the three game win streak

414
00:20:40,799 --> 00:20:44,359
came against nobody, the big twelve cellar, so to speak.

415
00:20:44,559 --> 00:20:46,960
But the win against Kansas you saw Kansas play last

416
00:20:47,039 --> 00:20:52,559
night was huge and if nothing else, they play intense defense,

417
00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:55,720
which Texas Tech did not have to face against Kansas

418
00:20:55,759 --> 00:21:00,400
State the other day. They do make some shots. I mean,

419
00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:03,240
I believe when I looked it up this morning that

420
00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:06,240
Edrin james Son is like top fifty three point shooter

421
00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:10,319
in the country. They can make some threes. They've got

422
00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:13,359
really good guard play, which is important against Texas Tech,

423
00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:16,720
and if you can hit the boards with some tenacity

424
00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:20,319
like Cincinnati can. I don't know why they can't stay

425
00:21:20,319 --> 00:21:22,480
in this game, Honestly, Adam, I kind of looked to

426
00:21:22,519 --> 00:21:26,519
their side, Wes Miller in fact, let me just get

427
00:21:26,559 --> 00:21:29,160
back to Texas Tech and Grant McCaslin. The point that

428
00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:33,359
I made to start this. Everybody indulge me here because

429
00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:35,119
I'm going to come at you with a couple of quotes.

430
00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:37,519
You know how I am with those. But Grant McCaslin

431
00:21:37,559 --> 00:21:41,279
basically said, our team came together and played for each other.

432
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:43,240
Really says a lot about this group, how much they

433
00:21:43,279 --> 00:21:45,640
love each other, how competitive we were through a tough

434
00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:49,079
game and situation. That's what I meant earlier about banding

435
00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:52,400
together for one game. Is that going to continue? Does

436
00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:56,920
that run fluid through the remainder of the Texas Tech schedule?

437
00:21:57,880 --> 00:22:01,039
Kansas State is the ideal team to play in that

438
00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:06,119
situation without JT topping, especially if you're highly motivated to

439
00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:08,640
go out there and you know, I don't want to

440
00:22:08,680 --> 00:22:11,160
say us against them, kind of chip on your shoulder,

441
00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:15,039
but you get what I mean. Lose your top player

442
00:22:15,759 --> 00:22:17,640
and want to come out and band together. They did it?

443
00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:21,079
Can they do it here? I would lean more toward

444
00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:26,680
Cincinnati in this particular spot. However, the one thing you

445
00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:29,640
have to worry about someonet Adam is this is two tough,

446
00:22:29,839 --> 00:22:32,200
tough road venues to go into in a row winning

447
00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:33,920
an Allen Field House, and you're gonna ask them to

448
00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:38,440
come back and do it again in Lubbock. But honestly,

449
00:22:38,519 --> 00:22:41,559
I think when I break it down, fundamentally, they can

450
00:22:41,599 --> 00:22:44,000
remain within the number here. So my look would be

451
00:22:44,079 --> 00:22:49,599
towards Cincinnati plus the points here. No real opinion on

452
00:22:49,799 --> 00:22:53,279
the total, although there's been a little slight movement here

453
00:22:53,319 --> 00:22:56,359
toward the over. I have to tell you, the more

454
00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:58,039
I look at the number, the more I would say this,

455
00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:02,640
it's kind of low. Forty one and a half. I

456
00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:04,960
think Texas Tech. Yes, they lose some offense with top

457
00:23:05,039 --> 00:23:06,680
and but I also think they lose some defense with

458
00:23:06,839 --> 00:23:12,000
topping out. So I'm gonna take a slight lean towards

459
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:14,039
that over. But say that plus six and a half

460
00:23:14,079 --> 00:23:15,759
looks like a pretty good number. And I do see,

461
00:23:15,799 --> 00:23:18,240
if you know, for those of you who have these

462
00:23:18,279 --> 00:23:22,680
more popular accounts across the country, the more accommodating the

463
00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:26,559
ones that you can catch a seven out there.

464
00:23:27,839 --> 00:23:29,799
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I think I think you'll be able to

465
00:23:29,839 --> 00:23:32,160
catch sevens a lot of places at some point. I

466
00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:36,000
don't think this is done moving toward Texas Tech where.

467
00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:38,680
And the reason for that is I still think I

468
00:23:38,759 --> 00:23:42,799
still think many have Texas Tech power rated fairly high,

469
00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:46,480
even with the injuries and even with like you know,

470
00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:49,680
based on where like I know I had for a

471
00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:52,079
long time. I think I talked about it last week

472
00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:54,480
where I'm like Robie, I show value on Texas Tech

473
00:23:54,559 --> 00:23:56,799
every game because I thought coming into the year they

474
00:23:56,799 --> 00:24:00,680
were Final fourteen, and it's like, so that's been a

475
00:24:00,759 --> 00:24:03,880
challenge for me to sort of downgrade Texas Tech from

476
00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:06,759
where I had them, you know, coming into the season,

477
00:24:07,079 --> 00:24:09,319
and now to sort of factor in the injury stuff.

478
00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:13,400
That's I've had a hard time, you know, kind of

479
00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:16,039
trusting my number for the game. But if I throw

480
00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:17,960
my number out here and just like look at it

481
00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:20,640
from a handicapping standpoint, once you get to seven and

482
00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:24,160
seven and a half, I do think it's it's you

483
00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:26,519
can make a reasonable case for Cincinnati plus the points.

484
00:24:26,519 --> 00:24:28,440
Speaker 2: So that's how I'll lean on this one with you.

485
00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:29,480
I'll agree with you there.

486
00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:31,839
Speaker 1: I think I would want at least seven, because I

487
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:34,880
do think it probably gets to seven most places throughout

488
00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:35,400
the course.

489
00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:35,640
Speaker 2: Of the day.

490
00:24:36,079 --> 00:24:38,880
Speaker 1: One thing I'll point out with Cincinnati, even when they

491
00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:41,599
were struggling early in the season, they played pretty good defense.

492
00:24:41,759 --> 00:24:44,759
And that is the hallmark of a west Miller team,

493
00:24:45,039 --> 00:24:47,519
right Like, go back to his Greensboro teams or any

494
00:24:47,519 --> 00:24:52,519
team west Miller's ever coached. They're always defensive grinder type teams.

495
00:24:52,759 --> 00:24:56,240
Right It's defense first, offense will take care of itself.

496
00:24:56,279 --> 00:24:58,759
That's sort of been his mo as a head coach

497
00:24:58,839 --> 00:25:02,680
throughout his coaching career. Rob right now, defensive rating Ken

498
00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:04,359
Palm eleven for Cincinnati.

499
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:05,160
Speaker 2: That's very good.

500
00:25:05,559 --> 00:25:08,759
Speaker 1: And you don't, like, you don't just get that from

501
00:25:08,799 --> 00:25:12,559
playing four good games, right Like, that's a season long

502
00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:15,960
metric right there. This this team has defended at a

503
00:25:16,039 --> 00:25:19,920
high level all season. It's just you know, there's games like,

504
00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:22,279
you know, go back, I'll go all the way back

505
00:25:22,279 --> 00:25:25,200
to November. They defended Louisville well, but they only scored

506
00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:29,880
sixty four points, right Like, you know, they defended There's

507
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:32,799
other examples like the defended Clemson well, but they lost

508
00:25:32,839 --> 00:25:36,200
sixty eight to sixty five, Houston sixty seven to sixty.

509
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:39,440
They played good defense in that game. West Virginia sixty

510
00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:43,000
two to sixty another game where their defense had them

511
00:25:43,039 --> 00:25:45,200
right in the game, but they simply could not score

512
00:25:45,279 --> 00:25:49,240
enough points. UCF seventy three, seventy two. You're starting to

513
00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:53,519
get the theme here of like Cincinnati, their defense has

514
00:25:53,519 --> 00:25:56,599
had them in games all year, and the eleventh ranked

515
00:25:56,599 --> 00:26:01,160
defense doesn't happen overnight. The difference is last couple games,

516
00:26:01,319 --> 00:26:05,000
they dropped ninety two on UCF. They put up ninety

517
00:26:05,039 --> 00:26:09,640
one on Kansas State. The offense was serviceable over the weekend,

518
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:10,799
eighty four on Kansas.

519
00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:12,640
Speaker 2: Yes, it got a little out of hand at the end.

520
00:26:12,960 --> 00:26:15,640
Speaker 1: So they've found a way to put the ball in

521
00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:18,359
the basket more than they had early in the season.

522
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:21,559
But the thing that's still there, that's the reason that

523
00:26:21,599 --> 00:26:23,359
they're starting to end up on the right side of

524
00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:26,720
these games, is the defense has been good since early

525
00:26:26,759 --> 00:26:28,720
in the season. You want to talk about a quote,

526
00:26:28,799 --> 00:26:33,119
how about Wes Miller basically in tears, going to address

527
00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:36,119
the fans after I forget what game it was, rob

528
00:26:36,559 --> 00:26:39,359
but he basically went out. You really don't see coaches

529
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:41,599
do this very often. It may have been the home

530
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:44,440
loss to West Virginia where he went over to the

531
00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:47,920
fans and was like, you guys deserve better, and he

532
00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:50,920
was like borderline in tiers.

533
00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:52,960
Speaker 2: They've won four straight since that.

534
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:56,880
Speaker 1: So whether he's rallied the troops and he's got everyone

535
00:26:56,920 --> 00:27:00,960
sort of buying in, that's all whatever. But one thing

536
00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:04,759
you can't dispute is that defensive rating being eleven is

537
00:27:04,799 --> 00:27:07,839
bordering on elite, and I think they're doing just enough

538
00:27:08,079 --> 00:27:10,480
to be on the right side of these wins or

539
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:12,400
i'm sorry, on the right side of these results as

540
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:14,519
opposed to the wrong side. But even if you go

541
00:27:14,599 --> 00:27:16,680
back in the beginning of the season, there's evidence of

542
00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:20,279
them keeping a game within seven against a quality team.

543
00:27:20,599 --> 00:27:22,240
So I think when you get to that seven and

544
00:27:22,279 --> 00:27:24,039
seven and a half range, you really got to start

545
00:27:24,079 --> 00:27:25,160
to like Cincinnati here.

546
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:29,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, real quick, Adam. Until this four game stretch, Cincinnati

547
00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:32,240
had not shot forty eight percent for a game in

548
00:27:32,279 --> 00:27:36,200
any Big twelve game this season. They've done that three

549
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:38,599
of the last four a couple of it. And again,

550
00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:42,480
I get the opposition aside from Kansas hasn't been great,

551
00:27:43,079 --> 00:27:45,279
but just for Cincinnati to start seeing the ball go

552
00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:48,680
through the basket, I think it's pretty helpful here for

553
00:27:48,759 --> 00:27:51,279
this team. So I think we're on the same page here.

554
00:27:51,279 --> 00:27:55,920
I would look to take points situationally and fundamentally. I

555
00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:58,279
think we're both pretty much based in the fact that

556
00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:01,279
their defense is good enough to keep this one close.

557
00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:05,839
Speaker 1: All right, Speaking of taking points, let's head over to

558
00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:07,079
our guy, Paul Powell.

559
00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:08,119
Speaker 2: Thank you for the donation.

560
00:28:08,279 --> 00:28:11,359
Speaker 1: Much appreciated, he says, and we're gonna stay in the

561
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:11,839
Big twelve.

562
00:28:11,839 --> 00:28:14,960
Speaker 2: Big twelve is the theme today of this show, he says.

563
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:17,759
Speaker 1: I hammered Utah plus thirteen and a half minus one

564
00:28:17,799 --> 00:28:20,519
twenty against Iowa State. I like the play so much.

565
00:28:20,519 --> 00:28:23,200
I took it two times before the line changed. Yeah,

566
00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:25,359
it looks like Paul's moving the line out here. Rob

567
00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:28,160
it's down to twelve and a half. I wish got

568
00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:29,680
to give us a heads up before you do that.

569
00:28:29,799 --> 00:28:32,519
But still we're at twelve and a half here. This

570
00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:36,640
is Utah the Huntsman Center out in Salt Lake City.

571
00:28:36,799 --> 00:28:39,640
They're gonna host an Iowa State team that fell victim

572
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:43,519
to a good Cincinnati defensive performance earlier this season as well.

573
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:47,920
Speaker 2: You know, went to so we know. I guess the

574
00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:50,759
reason I bring that up is we know that Iowa

575
00:28:50,799 --> 00:28:55,240
State is mortal. At this point, they were running on

576
00:28:55,319 --> 00:28:55,839
a stretch.

577
00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:58,079
Speaker 1: It feels like a lot of these Big twelve teams

578
00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:01,359
rob have had their stretch where they looked invincible, right

579
00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:05,799
where they just looked like totally invincible, and then they

580
00:29:05,839 --> 00:29:09,240
came back to earth and the Big twelve caught up

581
00:29:09,279 --> 00:29:12,960
with them. Iowa State's no difference. They had this crazy run,

582
00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:16,599
believe they were unbeaten. They go loose to Kansas, they

583
00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:19,640
lose to Cincinnati. Since then they have a road loss

584
00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:22,799
at TCU, and then over the weekend they lost to

585
00:29:22,839 --> 00:29:25,200
a BYU team that a lot of people thought were

586
00:29:25,279 --> 00:29:27,480
kind of like dead and buryed right like that was.

587
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:31,240
There was not many people given BYU a chance last

588
00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:34,160
week to win a big game. And BYU came out

589
00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:37,720
on Saturday night and knocks off this Ohio this Iowa

590
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:41,319
State team by ten. So if your Iowa State, You've

591
00:29:41,319 --> 00:29:44,519
been hanging out in Utah for a couple of days.

592
00:29:45,119 --> 00:29:47,519
As my light dies and I am now in the dark,

593
00:29:47,559 --> 00:29:50,559
But don't worry. I've got a backup. So we're no

594
00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:53,559
longer by the campfire. Hold on a second robin. We're

595
00:29:53,599 --> 00:29:56,279
back there, we are. The light is back.

596
00:29:58,079 --> 00:30:00,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, so this is interesting. Paul Powell says, Utah, he.

597
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:03,079
Speaker 1: Liked it at thirteen and a half. He knocked this

598
00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:05,960
spread down to twelve and a half. Iowa State comes

599
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:09,319
off the BYU lost and they're still out there obviously

600
00:30:09,319 --> 00:30:10,200
an easier opponent.

601
00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 2: But is this too many points in your opinion?

602
00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:15,400
Speaker 3: Well, if you go through utah schedule, they played fourteen

603
00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:19,200
big twelve games. Only two of those were decided by

604
00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:23,079
fourteen or more. Won a loss to Arizona. Okay, so

605
00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:25,880
you lost Arizona by more than fourteen and the other

606
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:30,480
one was against Texas Tech. Otherwise, win or lose where

607
00:30:30,599 --> 00:30:34,599
Utah is concerned. Every single one of those other fourteen games,

608
00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:38,519
so twelve of them have been played within this number

609
00:30:38,559 --> 00:30:41,559
of thirteen and a half, something from thirteen or less.

610
00:30:41,599 --> 00:30:44,079
So you know, if you're just playing the numbers game

611
00:30:44,559 --> 00:30:47,880
and the results game with Utah, it makes a lot

612
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:51,200
of sense to take thirteen and a half. Iowa State

613
00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:54,559
fell victim too, And again, let's talk about situation. Let's

614
00:30:54,599 --> 00:30:58,720
talk about spot. Iowa State beats Kansas, absolutely drills Kansas

615
00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:02,759
not yesterday Monday, but eight days ago Monday, right, beat

616
00:31:02,799 --> 00:31:08,599
them by almost twenty come back, they're trailing Houston. I

617
00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:10,759
don't know, was it sixty three fifty three with about

618
00:31:10,799 --> 00:31:13,119
five minutes left? Come back and win that game at home.

619
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:18,160
So two huge, huge wins at home Kansas and Houston.

620
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:22,119
Then get on the plane and fly into altitude against

621
00:31:22,119 --> 00:31:26,480
a BYU team that had lost Richie Sanders had lost

622
00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:29,680
the prior game, needed a win in the worst way

623
00:31:29,759 --> 00:31:32,039
because I think we were starting to shovel the dirt

624
00:31:32,759 --> 00:31:37,480
on BYU as a Big twelve contender. And aj Debanstay

625
00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:39,960
again does his thing. BYU does their thing, and they

626
00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:43,599
win that game. So situationally, that game, that loss on

627
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:48,000
Saturday for Iowa State, as there are many of those

628
00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:52,279
examples inside the Big Twelve, it can be justified with

629
00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:54,640
a legitimate argument. Whether or not you believe it or

630
00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:56,640
not is one thing, but it can be justified with

631
00:31:56,720 --> 00:32:03,359
a legitimate situational argument. Now you play Utah, who you

632
00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:06,119
would expect the Iowa State offense to pick back up

633
00:32:06,119 --> 00:32:11,640
because Utah is the worst defensive efficiency team in the

634
00:32:11,759 --> 00:32:15,440
Mountain West. To expect Iowa State's offense to get going

635
00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:18,359
here tonight. And if you're going to cover with Utah,

636
00:32:18,839 --> 00:32:21,720
they'll lean on their strength, which has been their ability

637
00:32:21,759 --> 00:32:25,839
to score in certain instances. They've got a pretty decent

638
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:28,119
set of guards on this team, and they can score

639
00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:33,079
the basketball with their backcourt and wings. So to me,

640
00:32:34,279 --> 00:32:36,680
more than side here because I don't want to mess

641
00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:39,960
around with this number. From what I described previously, twelve

642
00:32:40,039 --> 00:32:44,400
of their twelve of Utah's fourteen league games have fallen

643
00:32:44,799 --> 00:32:48,279
under this number. But I think total is definitely in

644
00:32:48,359 --> 00:32:52,039
play here. Now you know Iowa State, as we know,

645
00:32:52,119 --> 00:32:56,720
adam really really good defensive team. Do they come out

646
00:32:56,759 --> 00:32:58,720
and just shut Utah down? I'm not so sure. I

647
00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:00,839
think Utah can get enough of the job done here

648
00:33:01,319 --> 00:33:03,440
to the point where one forty four just looks slow

649
00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:05,319
to me. I don't expect you thought to have another

650
00:33:05,319 --> 00:33:08,559
bad defense or excuse me, offensive game. I just think

651
00:33:08,599 --> 00:33:12,880
that they fell a little bit victim to two monster wins,

652
00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:16,039
a flight to altitude, and a hungry BYU team. So

653
00:33:16,079 --> 00:33:18,720
for me, it would be a look toward over that number.

654
00:33:18,799 --> 00:33:21,920
Currently sits been bit down a little bit, one forty

655
00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:23,319
five and a half down to one forty four and

656
00:33:23,319 --> 00:33:24,920
a half. You can find one forty fours for those

657
00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:27,440
who want to shop really well. I would probably be

658
00:33:27,519 --> 00:33:29,240
on that side over one forty four.

659
00:33:32,279 --> 00:33:36,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was thirteen point six on my own spread here,

660
00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:38,960
so I'm pretty much right in line with where it opened.

661
00:33:40,559 --> 00:33:45,839
I don't have a huge desire to go against Iowa

662
00:33:45,880 --> 00:33:49,640
State coming off of the BYU loss. I do think though,

663
00:33:50,519 --> 00:33:52,720
I do think that that was like sort of like

664
00:33:53,039 --> 00:33:55,960
such a desperate spot for BYU, and they of course

665
00:33:56,039 --> 00:33:58,079
had a couple of games to figure out how to

666
00:33:58,079 --> 00:34:01,240
play without Saunders and then game plan for Iowa State.

667
00:34:01,279 --> 00:34:04,400
That I think I'm not going to hold that against

668
00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:06,359
Iowa State as much as I'm just gonna say, like,

669
00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:09,639
you know what, BYU, They've still got some players, right,

670
00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:12,440
Like earlier in the week they gave Arizona a game,

671
00:34:12,480 --> 00:34:14,199
and I think they just kind of came in with

672
00:34:14,239 --> 00:34:16,599
a good game plan. The bands has played really well

673
00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:18,880
and they were able to get a win there. So

674
00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:22,559
that to me, that was more of a like very

675
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:25,960
solid result for a BYU team that probably had a

676
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:28,719
good result coming to them than it was like this

677
00:34:28,840 --> 00:34:32,360
like terrible sort of loss for Iowa State. I don't

678
00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:34,519
think it was was as bad of a loss as

679
00:34:34,559 --> 00:34:40,880
maybe some people think. There's definitely concern you know, there's definite,

680
00:34:41,039 --> 00:34:45,039
definite concerns with laying thirteen on the road with this

681
00:34:45,159 --> 00:34:48,000
Iowa State team teams four and four on the road,

682
00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:50,800
and you know some of these games, right you look

683
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:54,079
at Iowa State road games not competitive.

684
00:34:54,119 --> 00:34:57,519
Speaker 2: We talked about the loss of Cincinnati not competitive.

685
00:34:56,960 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 1: With Kansas, you know, lost to TCU, the BYU won

686
00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:07,599
over the weekend, only be only one at Waco by ten, right, Like,

687
00:35:08,199 --> 00:35:09,960
because again you start to kind of go through the

688
00:35:10,119 --> 00:35:12,599
you know, you start to go through a little bit

689
00:35:12,639 --> 00:35:14,920
and say, you know, who are the other bottom teams

690
00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:17,079
in this league? Right well, Baylor's kind of down there.

691
00:35:17,239 --> 00:35:21,679
Only won that game by ten. So yeah, like again,

692
00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:23,519
this is just not one that I have like a

693
00:35:23,599 --> 00:35:28,199
huge personal opinion on My number puts it right in

694
00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:29,760
line with the market, but.

695
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:33,360
Speaker 2: I think there's cases to be made for both sides.

696
00:35:33,599 --> 00:35:36,320
Speaker 1: Personally, I would not want to go against Iowa State

697
00:35:36,559 --> 00:35:37,559
off of the loss.

698
00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:39,800
Speaker 2: But you are you know you're talking you got third.

699
00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:42,119
Speaker 1: Listen, if you got thirteen and a half and the

700
00:35:42,159 --> 00:35:43,719
market is pretty much at twelve.

701
00:35:43,519 --> 00:35:46,239
Speaker 2: And a half, I'm not really going to argue with

702
00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:46,639
you there.

703
00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:49,760
Speaker 1: You probably have a decent number, but I would need

704
00:35:49,920 --> 00:35:52,760
I would need more like sixteen to want any part

705
00:35:52,840 --> 00:35:55,079
of Utah here, they're just they're just not a team

706
00:35:55,119 --> 00:35:58,039
that I found to have redeeming qualities like some of

707
00:35:58,079 --> 00:36:01,519
the other like for example, just they make the example

708
00:36:01,519 --> 00:36:05,239
we talked now about three Big ten game Big twelve games.

709
00:36:05,599 --> 00:36:09,480
I would much rather have Baylor or Cincinnati as underdogs

710
00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:12,360
tonight than Utah, just to just to put it in

711
00:36:12,360 --> 00:36:16,079
the context of today's slate, I think they have less

712
00:36:16,239 --> 00:36:19,960
redeeming qualities than the other two underdogs in the Big

713
00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:21,840
twelve that we've talked about so far on the show.

714
00:36:22,639 --> 00:36:24,719
So again, sorry, sorry, I don't have more for you.

715
00:36:24,679 --> 00:36:26,519
Speaker 2: There, Paul.

716
00:36:26,639 --> 00:36:29,599
Speaker 1: But yeah, I guess we'll leave that one at that.

717
00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:33,880
All right, let's go to Garth. Let's get out of

718
00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:35,760
the Big twelve for a second, and let's go to Garth.

719
00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:38,400
And he said, oh boy, here we go. He says,

720
00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:40,800
let's look at the bottom of the of the Mountain

721
00:36:40,880 --> 00:36:45,480
West with San Jose and Air Force. I'm gonna let

722
00:36:45,519 --> 00:36:47,599
you kick this one off, Rob. He likes the over

723
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:51,280
one and a half. This is a great stat though.

724
00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:55,519
Combine twenty four and eight to the over in conference play.

725
00:36:55,559 --> 00:36:58,519
And I actually saw Jim Route, our buddy Jim Root

726
00:36:58,519 --> 00:37:01,079
from three man weave one of his shows kind of

727
00:37:01,079 --> 00:37:05,719
talking about air Force games going over so far since

728
00:37:05,719 --> 00:37:08,760
Mountain West play has started. Some of that's probably because

729
00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:10,400
a lot of air Force games get out of hand

730
00:37:10,920 --> 00:37:13,519
because they're not in many games, and then you just

731
00:37:13,599 --> 00:37:15,760
kind of get this free for all the last few minutes.

732
00:37:16,199 --> 00:37:19,800
Speaker 2: So where are you at on that total? It's ticked

733
00:37:19,880 --> 00:37:22,039
up the tiny bit. Do you like that? Over San

734
00:37:22,119 --> 00:37:23,280
Jose State and air Force?

735
00:37:24,159 --> 00:37:28,440
Speaker 3: I mean there's zero reason. Now, I guess I shouldn't

736
00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:30,800
say zero reason because those who want to go by

737
00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:35,440
the analytics will tell you San Jose State and air

738
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:39,280
Force are the two least efficient offenses in the Mountain West.

739
00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:42,960
But what overrides that is they're the two worst defenses

740
00:37:43,119 --> 00:37:45,840
in the Mountain West and air Force for what it's worth,

741
00:37:45,880 --> 00:37:50,920
that and generally we consider air Force Joe Scott Princeton

742
00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:56,360
offense lasting tempo every single year, limit possessions. They're not

743
00:37:56,440 --> 00:38:00,199
that this year. They're like an upper echelon or at

744
00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:03,360
least the middle of the pack as far as pace

745
00:38:03,480 --> 00:38:06,880
is concerned. For air Force, it's different. I mean, it

746
00:38:06,960 --> 00:38:09,360
was such a weird situation, right They let you know

747
00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:11,719
way back I think the end of December early January,

748
00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:14,079
Joe Scott's not going to return, and then they just

749
00:38:14,119 --> 00:38:16,480
officially fire him like last week were a couple of

750
00:38:16,519 --> 00:38:19,280
days before. I mean, why not just find that way back,

751
00:38:20,159 --> 00:38:24,559
you know. So it's been kind of a you know,

752
00:38:25,239 --> 00:38:28,360
miserable season for air Force, and especially on the defensive end.

753
00:38:28,639 --> 00:38:30,800
I can understand what Garth is saying, you could even

754
00:38:30,840 --> 00:38:33,000
look to play San Jose State if you wanted to

755
00:38:33,079 --> 00:38:36,880
focus in, because I would be more inclined and I

756
00:38:36,920 --> 00:38:39,480
don't know why, but I would be more inclined to

757
00:38:39,639 --> 00:38:43,119
play to fade the air Force defense. It's just been

758
00:38:43,320 --> 00:38:48,800
so terrible. And the fact that they allow teams to

759
00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:52,920
play tempo now because they play tempo with you, is

760
00:38:53,039 --> 00:38:55,760
why you get these higher scoring games. And you know,

761
00:38:55,840 --> 00:38:58,400
we talk a little bit at him on this show

762
00:38:58,400 --> 00:39:02,360
about odds makers and their quick to adjust. I don't

763
00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:05,360
think air Force really was ever adjusted in the totals

764
00:39:05,400 --> 00:39:09,000
market by odds makers the way they probably should have been.

765
00:39:09,039 --> 00:39:12,719
You know, the increase in tempo wasn't really recognized. There's

766
00:39:12,760 --> 00:39:16,320
still air Force. They're still perceived in a certain way,

767
00:39:16,880 --> 00:39:19,559
and it has led in May estermission at least it

768
00:39:19,599 --> 00:39:22,199
has led to a lot of these games getting over, Garth,

769
00:39:22,239 --> 00:39:24,159
I wouldn't talk you off of it. The twenty four

770
00:39:24,159 --> 00:39:26,320
and eight number combined I wasn't aware of. But I

771
00:39:26,360 --> 00:39:28,840
know air Force games have been going over like crazy

772
00:39:30,599 --> 00:39:34,079
the second half of this season, so I would say

773
00:39:34,079 --> 00:39:38,199
that you're probably onto something. I don't know if air

774
00:39:38,239 --> 00:39:43,400
Force currently is adjusted enough in the totals market. I

775
00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:45,199
mean to be staring at a one forty two and

776
00:39:45,199 --> 00:39:47,440
a half, and the market moved it right, market went

777
00:39:47,480 --> 00:39:49,280
from one forty one to one forty two and a half.

778
00:39:49,320 --> 00:39:51,480
They see what's coming here. I just don't know that

779
00:39:51,559 --> 00:39:56,199
it's been compensated for enough. Considering the style of play

780
00:39:56,239 --> 00:40:00,280
that air Force has played and the absolute train that

781
00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:03,079
is their defense. Even San Jose State is going to

782
00:40:03,119 --> 00:40:06,000
put their numbers up against this team today, at least

783
00:40:06,000 --> 00:40:07,440
they should. So I'm with you, Garth.

784
00:40:09,320 --> 00:40:11,519
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm kind of with you too. So here's the

785
00:40:11,559 --> 00:40:15,440
reason that air Force does not play the crawling so

786
00:40:15,760 --> 00:40:18,400
slow pace anymore because last year when they did that,

787
00:40:18,440 --> 00:40:20,119
they had a good guy by the name of Ethan

788
00:40:20,159 --> 00:40:23,440
Taylor who was one of the best players in this league.

789
00:40:23,559 --> 00:40:26,079
Kind of stuck on like a bad air Force team,

790
00:40:26,079 --> 00:40:27,400
but he was still one of the one of the

791
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:31,639
top individual players in the Mountain West. So last year

792
00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:35,239
essentially because I bet way too much air Force basketball

793
00:40:35,480 --> 00:40:37,880
to admit to anyone last year. I don't know why

794
00:40:37,920 --> 00:40:40,320
I felt the need to keep getting involved with that

795
00:40:40,360 --> 00:40:42,760
team last year, but I did. The way they would

796
00:40:42,840 --> 00:40:46,079
essentially play was they they tried to have as few

797
00:40:46,079 --> 00:40:48,960
possessions in the game as possible because they knew a

798
00:40:49,159 --> 00:40:53,119
worst case scenario Ethan Taylor could probably bail them out

799
00:40:53,119 --> 00:40:54,960
at the end of the shot clock, and so you

800
00:40:54,960 --> 00:40:57,360
had you had the So basically the way Scott looked

801
00:40:57,360 --> 00:41:00,000
at it, I think was, Okay, well let's give our

802
00:41:00,079 --> 00:41:04,679
opponents as few possessions as possible, but at least when

803
00:41:04,719 --> 00:41:08,079
we get thirty seconds into a terrible possession, we got

804
00:41:08,079 --> 00:41:10,440
a guy that can probably just make a tough shot

805
00:41:10,480 --> 00:41:15,079
and bail us out. So problem is this year air

806
00:41:15,119 --> 00:41:17,920
Force does not have that, and I think they learned

807
00:41:18,119 --> 00:41:21,079
very very early into the season that they didn't have it,

808
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:23,480
because if you look at how they started this year,

809
00:41:23,880 --> 00:41:27,119
lost to Belmont, lost to Austin p lost to Long Island,

810
00:41:27,400 --> 00:41:31,280
lost to Miami of Ohio, barely be Alabama State, you know, like,

811
00:41:32,039 --> 00:41:34,039
lost to South Dakota, lost the Pacific.

812
00:41:34,280 --> 00:41:35,800
Speaker 2: Like, I think.

813
00:41:35,559 --> 00:41:38,920
Speaker 1: After that you probably had and maybe it's just the

814
00:41:38,960 --> 00:41:41,760
assistant now that Joe Scott's not there, maybe they said,

815
00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:44,320
you know what, let's let's not do this. We can't

816
00:41:44,360 --> 00:41:47,760
meet a mid major doing this. Let's maybe let's just

817
00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:50,679
do something different. I think that's probably why you're seeing

818
00:41:50,920 --> 00:41:54,440
this crazy run to the over because, like you said, Rob,

819
00:41:54,719 --> 00:41:57,639
there you look at like the pace ratings, they might

820
00:41:57,679 --> 00:41:59,519
only be middle of the pack, but this was a

821
00:41:59,559 --> 00:42:01,639
team that in the low three. They were in the

822
00:42:01,639 --> 00:42:05,079
three thirties, three forties, three fifties for a couple of years.

823
00:42:05,400 --> 00:42:08,719
So yeah, it's possible that the market has not adjusted

824
00:42:09,079 --> 00:42:13,880
to one hundred point move one hundred spot move in tempo,

825
00:42:14,599 --> 00:42:16,719
even though it doesn't look you know, you look and say, oh, well, they.

826
00:42:16,679 --> 00:42:17,599
Speaker 2: Don't play very fast.

827
00:42:17,599 --> 00:42:20,000
Speaker 1: At two fiftieth in the country or I think they're

828
00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:22,960
two fifty eighth right now, that's still a pretty big

829
00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:26,599
difference between what they were last year, what they were

830
00:42:26,599 --> 00:42:28,679
at the beginning of this year this year, and what

831
00:42:28,719 --> 00:42:30,280
they're trying to be now now.

832
00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:31,119
Speaker 2: Is it working.

833
00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:34,679
Speaker 1: No, they still haven't won a league game, But maybe

834
00:42:34,679 --> 00:42:37,280
it's just a it's like okay, at least if we're

835
00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:40,480
trying to get shots up, maybe we give ourselves a chance.

836
00:42:40,599 --> 00:42:43,159
Speaker 2: Maybe that's the theory here going forward.

837
00:42:43,639 --> 00:42:45,280
Speaker 1: If they're ever going to have a chance to win

838
00:42:45,320 --> 00:42:47,800
a league game, it's probably this one, right, This would

839
00:42:47,840 --> 00:42:50,679
be the one opponent in the Mountain West that they

840
00:42:50,760 --> 00:42:53,280
might be able to beat. The first meeting in San

841
00:42:53,400 --> 00:42:56,519
Jose was seventy to sixty two. But yeah, I'm with you,

842
00:42:56,559 --> 00:42:59,360
I'm with Garth. I want zero part of trying to

843
00:42:59,360 --> 00:43:01,960
back air Force as an underdog. I'd much rather just

844
00:43:02,000 --> 00:43:06,079
go over the point one thirty two in the first meeting,

845
00:43:06,719 --> 00:43:09,719
and they're probably playing faster. That was earlier in conference play,

846
00:43:09,760 --> 00:43:12,880
so they've probably played They are probably playing faster now

847
00:43:13,239 --> 00:43:15,360
than they were going into that game, So it would

848
00:43:15,400 --> 00:43:15,920
be over.

849
00:43:15,920 --> 00:43:17,920
Speaker 2: Passed for me here as well.

850
00:43:18,400 --> 00:43:21,519
Speaker 3: You jogged my memory at him because when you said

851
00:43:21,559 --> 00:43:24,840
air Force lost to Belmont that was so long ago

852
00:43:25,840 --> 00:43:29,119
to open the season. I believe that was one of

853
00:43:29,199 --> 00:43:32,480
our very first parlay legs. I played Belmont that night,

854
00:43:33,159 --> 00:43:37,559
yes opening night total, and I remember you saying that

855
00:43:37,760 --> 00:43:40,840
air Force is one of the worst teams in the

856
00:43:40,880 --> 00:43:43,639
country and agree with the play that. I had to

857
00:43:43,679 --> 00:43:46,559
think BP was with us then, But that's you know,

858
00:43:46,960 --> 00:43:50,599
what we stated way back in early November has really

859
00:43:50,639 --> 00:43:52,960
come to fruition with air Force. They are truly one

860
00:43:53,000 --> 00:43:54,760
of the worst teams in the country, so much so

861
00:43:54,840 --> 00:43:58,360
that I've seen some calling out for air Force to

862
00:43:58,480 --> 00:44:02,280
just drop in class and go play Division two.

863
00:44:03,800 --> 00:44:06,239
Speaker 2: You can't go to the big go to the big Wester.

864
00:44:06,360 --> 00:44:08,679
Speaker 1: So the problem is they can't do that because football

865
00:44:08,679 --> 00:44:11,880
controls all and they actually still put the field a

866
00:44:12,360 --> 00:44:16,559
reasonably competitive football team. I love this right here, Richie,

867
00:44:16,599 --> 00:44:18,920
thank you for the donation, he says. Trigg has inspired

868
00:44:18,920 --> 00:44:21,400
me to seek out smaller CBB venues.

869
00:44:21,440 --> 00:44:23,639
Speaker 2: I absolutely love that. DM me.

870
00:44:24,199 --> 00:44:26,239
Speaker 1: Hit me up, let me know where you're located, and

871
00:44:26,280 --> 00:44:28,159
if we're ever in the same area, I'll take I'll

872
00:44:28,159 --> 00:44:29,159
take you to a game with me.

873
00:44:29,519 --> 00:44:30,519
Speaker 2: I've done that with a couple.

874
00:44:30,840 --> 00:44:31,000
Speaker 1: Uh.

875
00:44:31,280 --> 00:44:33,679
Speaker 2: Met Ethan Bainbridge, who's always in the comments.

876
00:44:34,039 --> 00:44:34,400
Speaker 1: Uh.

877
00:44:34,480 --> 00:44:36,480
Speaker 2: We took him to Bowling Green earlier this year. Had

878
00:44:36,480 --> 00:44:39,639
a blast. It's it's funded to you know.

879
00:44:39,760 --> 00:44:41,519
Speaker 1: One of the benefits of me just sort of being

880
00:44:41,519 --> 00:44:43,960
out in the road is, uh, sometimes I'm in your

881
00:44:44,000 --> 00:44:46,039
area and then and then you know, get to meet

882
00:44:46,079 --> 00:44:49,039
you guys, which is always fun. So yeah, whether it's

883
00:44:49,079 --> 00:44:51,880
this year or next year, let me know, let me

884
00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:53,639
know where you're located, and we'll get you out to

885
00:44:53,719 --> 00:44:55,719
a game if you'd like to go to a game.

886
00:44:55,719 --> 00:44:56,880
Speaker 2: And that really goes for anyone.

887
00:44:57,079 --> 00:44:57,960
Speaker 3: Just you.

888
00:44:57,960 --> 00:45:01,400
Speaker 1: You know, if you see me stroll into town like randomly,

889
00:45:01,480 --> 00:45:05,000
because it's always like you know, just I just fly

890
00:45:05,119 --> 00:45:07,480
by the seat of my pants. Rob, I didn't really

891
00:45:07,519 --> 00:45:09,880
know I was going to Newark on Saturday night until

892
00:45:09,880 --> 00:45:10,360
I was there.

893
00:45:11,119 --> 00:45:11,559
Speaker 2: Let me know.

894
00:45:11,760 --> 00:45:14,800
Speaker 1: We'll get you out to a game, all right, Di,

895
00:45:15,760 --> 00:45:18,920
We'll go donation here for mad Max, talk a little

896
00:45:18,960 --> 00:45:22,480
Big ten basketball, and then we'll go to Rob's game

897
00:45:22,519 --> 00:45:25,239
after this, because I think we've already talked about mine,

898
00:45:25,320 --> 00:45:28,559
so let's go to mad Max here, He says. Northwestern

899
00:45:29,360 --> 00:45:33,800
off a big win over Maryland, Indiana got pounded by Purdue.

900
00:45:33,840 --> 00:45:35,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, they got pounded by Purdue in that game.

901
00:45:36,760 --> 00:45:40,400
Speaker 1: Was a little annoyed with myself for not recognizing that

902
00:45:40,400 --> 00:45:43,199
that might be the case. But they got absolutely throttled,

903
00:45:43,280 --> 00:45:46,159
Northwestern giving up thirty six percent from three in conference play.

904
00:45:46,440 --> 00:45:46,639
Speaker 2: Rob.

905
00:45:46,679 --> 00:45:48,719
Speaker 1: I love that our viewers not only now ask for

906
00:45:48,760 --> 00:45:51,920
a game, donate to our charity, and then bring us

907
00:45:51,920 --> 00:45:54,400
stats to set up the play. I don't even have

908
00:45:54,440 --> 00:45:56,599
to look at these on the fly. Mad Max is

909
00:45:56,599 --> 00:45:58,920
like laying out He's he's given us all the numbers here.

910
00:45:59,400 --> 00:46:01,440
He says, if Indiana hits their threes, it's going to

911
00:46:01,480 --> 00:46:04,440
be a long game for Northwestern. Yeah, that makes a

912
00:46:04,440 --> 00:46:07,079
lot of sense. Indiana has been much better at home.

913
00:46:07,360 --> 00:46:09,679
Indiana has hit shots at a higher rate at home.

914
00:46:10,119 --> 00:46:13,079
I'm with mad Max there, if Indiana hits their threes,

915
00:46:13,679 --> 00:46:14,719
it's probably.

916
00:46:14,400 --> 00:46:17,519
Speaker 2: A long night for Northwestern. What do you agree? Disagree?

917
00:46:17,559 --> 00:46:20,119
And he says any thought on the team total.

918
00:46:20,679 --> 00:46:24,960
Speaker 3: Well, impossible to disagree with it. I mean, I think

919
00:46:24,960 --> 00:46:29,199
it's by you, right by you told us. Where does

920
00:46:29,239 --> 00:46:32,000
he claim the soft rims are Florida Atlantic.

921
00:46:31,920 --> 00:46:32,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, Florida Atlantic.

922
00:46:33,000 --> 00:46:35,920
Speaker 1: He's convinced that the Ellie has a softer that the

923
00:46:36,079 --> 00:46:37,679
pillow soft rims at the Elley.

924
00:46:37,760 --> 00:46:39,119
Speaker 2: Yeah.

925
00:46:39,400 --> 00:46:42,119
Speaker 3: For years, I've been saying the same about Bloomington. They

926
00:46:42,239 --> 00:46:45,519
just favor Indiana so much. I don't know why, but Indiana,

927
00:46:45,599 --> 00:46:49,039
this is not a new thing. Where Indiana scores better

928
00:46:49,079 --> 00:46:51,639
at home, shoots better at home. Doesn't matter what squad

929
00:46:51,679 --> 00:46:55,920
they have, they're generally a far better shooting team at home.

930
00:46:55,960 --> 00:46:58,880
And I couldn't disagree with a move towards the total.

931
00:46:58,920 --> 00:47:02,679
Here in fact was the Purdue game had to have

932
00:47:02,719 --> 00:47:07,079
been Friday night because I believe I played perdue team

933
00:47:07,159 --> 00:47:10,320
total over in like what you said, I think it

934
00:47:10,360 --> 00:47:14,159
was a sort of an anger game, a get back

935
00:47:14,199 --> 00:47:17,719
game for Purdue off of a loss. Here. You know,

936
00:47:17,760 --> 00:47:21,239
there's a lot of positive quotes, and Chris Collins has

937
00:47:21,360 --> 00:47:26,079
generally been a positive head coach. Don't always get positive results,

938
00:47:26,119 --> 00:47:31,159
but Northwestern still views themselves as a team that can

939
00:47:31,159 --> 00:47:34,119
play with anybody inside the Big Ten, and according to

940
00:47:34,199 --> 00:47:39,000
Nick Martinelli, their top offensive player. I would think that

941
00:47:39,760 --> 00:47:43,920
Indiana's going to score the simple breakdown simplistically, Indiana probably

942
00:47:43,960 --> 00:47:47,920
gets theirs against Northwestern. Indiana's defense has not been locked

943
00:47:47,920 --> 00:47:50,719
down all season long. We've talked about Wilkerson a little bit.

944
00:47:50,760 --> 00:47:53,800
He's about impossible to defend at this point in time

945
00:47:53,840 --> 00:47:56,400
inside the Big Ten. We've talked about Tucker Devrees a

946
00:47:56,400 --> 00:47:58,679
lot on this show that he hasn't come to play

947
00:47:58,679 --> 00:48:01,599
against the upper echelon against the Big Ten. Maybe he's

948
00:48:01,639 --> 00:48:03,519
in over his head a little bit. It's not the

949
00:48:03,519 --> 00:48:06,719
Missouri Valley anymore, but against this style team, i'd expect

950
00:48:06,719 --> 00:48:09,519
the rees to contribute. I'd expect all the Indiana guys

951
00:48:09,599 --> 00:48:13,400
to contribute. Leads me to the point, where can you

952
00:48:13,400 --> 00:48:16,360
get enough out of Northwestern to go ahead and get

953
00:48:16,360 --> 00:48:20,320
this thing up and over? And I kind of believe

954
00:48:20,360 --> 00:48:22,039
you do. And I hesitate in saying that because of

955
00:48:22,079 --> 00:48:25,559
Northwestern's tempo. Like when I playovers, I always want enough

956
00:48:25,559 --> 00:48:29,159
scoring opportunities, and Northwestern, if they have a lead in

957
00:48:29,199 --> 00:48:31,280
this game at any point, that's when these teams that

958
00:48:31,320 --> 00:48:34,199
play slow tempo really slow it down when they have leads.

959
00:48:35,280 --> 00:48:38,360
But if Indiana gets out quick in this one, which

960
00:48:38,400 --> 00:48:40,960
they've been known to do at home, have big first halves,

961
00:48:41,880 --> 00:48:44,719
I think there's no probably no issue here getting up

962
00:48:44,760 --> 00:48:46,480
and over one forty five and a half. The games

963
00:48:46,599 --> 00:48:48,440
really remains the same. I'm looking at a couple of

964
00:48:48,480 --> 00:48:52,039
one forty six is as we speak, and one stray

965
00:48:52,159 --> 00:48:56,000
one forty six and a half. So, guys, again, if

966
00:48:56,079 --> 00:48:59,039
you're in the Las Vegas area, we're not allowed to

967
00:48:59,079 --> 00:49:02,320
pinpoint or tell you exactly where to go, but if

968
00:49:02,360 --> 00:49:05,320
you're in the Las Vegas area, you can find a

969
00:49:05,400 --> 00:49:09,360
one and a half. So if you like over shop it, well,

970
00:49:09,440 --> 00:49:11,360
I think it's probably the right way to go. Here.

971
00:49:12,920 --> 00:49:16,119
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I'll I'll just hammer this home. My number

972
00:49:16,159 --> 00:49:19,559
is on the side of Indiana winning this game by

973
00:49:19,559 --> 00:49:23,199
double digit. So if you are with the original comment,

974
00:49:23,400 --> 00:49:26,480
I've got to agree with you. If Indiana is getting

975
00:49:26,519 --> 00:49:28,559
what they want offensively, if the shots are falling, this

976
00:49:28,800 --> 00:49:31,719
certainly feels like one that could could they could run

977
00:49:31,800 --> 00:49:34,960
up if they want to, and that probably means five

978
00:49:35,119 --> 00:49:37,239
more than more than nine, because it looks like you

979
00:49:37,239 --> 00:49:39,840
can get eight and a half at present, which is

980
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:40,679
probably good.

981
00:49:41,000 --> 00:49:41,320
Speaker 2: Jacob.

982
00:49:41,360 --> 00:49:43,800
Speaker 1: I don't know if you're serious about this, but North

983
00:49:43,800 --> 00:49:47,119
Florida maybe where I am on Thursday, so hopefully so.

984
00:49:47,320 --> 00:49:49,639
I'm trying to go surprise my gramma for a birthday

985
00:49:49,639 --> 00:49:52,599
this weekend down in Florida because my parents are down

986
00:49:52,639 --> 00:49:54,280
there and stuff like that. I'm trying to make like

987
00:49:54,320 --> 00:49:57,639
a last second. Hopefully Graham is not watching Full Court

988
00:49:57,719 --> 00:50:00,840
Press right now. I doubt she is she is, Robb.

989
00:50:00,679 --> 00:50:03,320
Speaker 2: Because that would ruin why not, It would ruin the surprise.

990
00:50:03,880 --> 00:50:06,480
Speaker 1: But I do think North Florida is where I will

991
00:50:06,519 --> 00:50:08,599
be on Thursday, because it's like one of the only

992
00:50:08,639 --> 00:50:12,119
ones that makes sense. So yeah, if you are, if

993
00:50:12,280 --> 00:50:13,840
if you were serious about that, hit me up. I

994
00:50:13,880 --> 00:50:17,760
may be checking out North Florida Florida Golf Coast on Thursday,

995
00:50:17,800 --> 00:50:21,039
So let me know, all right, Rob, I'm gonna give

996
00:50:21,039 --> 00:50:24,079
the Florida you do you know what game you want

997
00:50:24,079 --> 00:50:25,119
to use for the parlay?

998
00:50:25,960 --> 00:50:26,880
Speaker 2: Have we talked about it?

999
00:50:26,920 --> 00:50:27,320
Speaker 3: Have we not?

1000
00:50:27,400 --> 00:50:29,119
Speaker 2: If we haven't, why don't you throw a game out

1001
00:50:29,119 --> 00:50:30,079
there for us to talk about.

1002
00:50:30,719 --> 00:50:32,599
Speaker 3: We haven't talked about it. And I've got kind of

1003
00:50:32,639 --> 00:50:35,840
an extensive card today, Adam. There's so many situational plays

1004
00:50:35,840 --> 00:50:37,039
that I want to be on. I'm gonna have to

1005
00:50:37,039 --> 00:50:39,119
shave it down for clients and I'll get my five

1006
00:50:39,159 --> 00:50:43,400
dollars play up when this show ends. But I'm gonna

1007
00:50:43,440 --> 00:50:46,400
go to one that's as simple as simple can get.

1008
00:50:46,480 --> 00:50:50,840
Really doesn't need a ton of explanation. But I often

1009
00:50:50,920 --> 00:50:54,159
use the phrase somebody's got to pay, and somebody's got

1010
00:50:54,199 --> 00:50:57,039
to pay for what happened to Michigan against Duke this

1011
00:50:57,119 --> 00:51:00,000
past weekend, and that somebody's gonna end up being Minnesota.

1012
00:51:00,119 --> 00:51:02,800
I think tonight, I like the Michigan team total up

1013
00:51:02,840 --> 00:51:07,760
and over eighty three and a half. I just talked

1014
00:51:07,760 --> 00:51:13,760
about Northwestern and Indiana and a hesitancy to go ahead

1015
00:51:13,960 --> 00:51:17,519
and just full out jump to the window and bet

1016
00:51:17,559 --> 00:51:20,679
that game over because of Northwestern's tempo. You could say

1017
00:51:20,719 --> 00:51:23,920
the same about Minnesota, right Nico Medved's team is even slower.

1018
00:51:24,400 --> 00:51:28,199
But in that same breath handicapping theory of mine and

1019
00:51:28,239 --> 00:51:32,079
I think this bears out. You can't control tempa when

1020
00:51:32,079 --> 00:51:37,480
you're behind. And Minnesota in all likelihood finds themselves behind

1021
00:51:38,440 --> 00:51:41,119
at Michigan early on in this one, and all of

1022
00:51:41,119 --> 00:51:43,599
a sudden, you can't crawl anymore. You've got to catch

1023
00:51:43,679 --> 00:51:45,639
up at some point, or at least attempt to catch

1024
00:51:45,719 --> 00:51:49,159
up at some point. Michigan's likely to control every defensive board,

1025
00:51:50,119 --> 00:51:52,840
or Michigan, excuse me, likely to control every defensive board.

1026
00:51:53,119 --> 00:51:56,000
They'll get out, they'll run. There's a little bit, you know,

1027
00:51:56,599 --> 00:52:00,559
one situational thing that you have to consider is does

1028
00:52:00,599 --> 00:52:04,800
the letdown carry over to this game? I doubt it

1029
00:52:05,000 --> 00:52:09,119
with Michigan. Dusty May, and we've talked about him a

1030
00:52:09,159 --> 00:52:12,800
lot too, but there's something about this guy that you

1031
00:52:12,880 --> 00:52:16,239
watch him in that press conference after Duke telling you

1032
00:52:16,320 --> 00:52:18,360
that we're going to learn from this. But you can see,

1033
00:52:18,800 --> 00:52:20,440
with a lot of coaches, you could read between the

1034
00:52:20,480 --> 00:52:23,159
lines that Dusty May is not one of these guys.

1035
00:52:23,159 --> 00:52:25,920
That's going to let up on his team for this game.

1036
00:52:25,920 --> 00:52:27,559
He's going to be relentless in the fact that we

1037
00:52:27,599 --> 00:52:30,079
need to blow somebody out, and boy, they have the

1038
00:52:30,119 --> 00:52:32,360
material to blow somebody out here. I think that's somebody's

1039
00:52:32,440 --> 00:52:37,480
Minnesota points spread wise, a little afraid to lay it

1040
00:52:37,599 --> 00:52:40,119
simply because we've seen Michigan go this year on a

1041
00:52:40,119 --> 00:52:43,199
one to eight ats run, being overpriced inside the Big ten.

1042
00:52:43,800 --> 00:52:46,920
But asking them to score eighty four points, I don't

1043
00:52:46,920 --> 00:52:50,199
think is all that difficult here, And I don't you know, again,

1044
00:52:51,039 --> 00:52:53,079
you try to keep a notebook on these guys. At

1045
00:52:53,159 --> 00:52:55,880
least I do a small notebook on coaches that don't

1046
00:52:56,039 --> 00:52:59,719
mind scoring and running it up at the end of games.

1047
00:53:00,360 --> 00:53:02,519
Dustyama is one of these guys that just doesn't let

1048
00:53:02,559 --> 00:53:05,880
off the gas pedal. If he's got, you know, at

1049
00:53:05,920 --> 00:53:08,639
twenty twenty twenty two to twenty four point lead, they're

1050
00:53:08,639 --> 00:53:11,800
still gonna score. So for me, it's Michigan team total

1051
00:53:11,800 --> 00:53:13,480
over eighty three and a half tonight. I think this

1052
00:53:13,519 --> 00:53:15,960
gets us back on the right track with our parlay legs.

1053
00:53:16,719 --> 00:53:19,480
That's where I'm going at them. Despite Minnesota's slow tempo,

1054
00:53:19,519 --> 00:53:22,119
I don't think that comes into play. Here, Michigan fundamental

1055
00:53:22,119 --> 00:53:26,079
advantages are way too huge, motivational advantage, way too huge,

1056
00:53:26,559 --> 00:53:29,920
and real quick, I'll add this. Nico medved actually said

1057
00:53:30,039 --> 00:53:33,800
after they beat Rutgers that their number one goal right

1058
00:53:33,840 --> 00:53:36,800
now is to avoid playing Tuesday in the Big Ten tournament,

1059
00:53:37,239 --> 00:53:42,159
and that win was like crucial for them. If you

1060
00:53:42,239 --> 00:53:44,719
try and take that what they put into that game,

1061
00:53:44,760 --> 00:53:47,039
the effort, the max effort, one hundred percent efforts they

1062
00:53:47,039 --> 00:53:49,599
put into beating Rutgers on Saturday, and now go to

1063
00:53:49,639 --> 00:53:52,679
play Michigan. It's almost like, you know, what we accomplished

1064
00:53:52,679 --> 00:53:55,320
what we wanted to do. If we get smoked here,

1065
00:53:55,400 --> 00:53:58,039
it might not matter. So I don't know that Minnesota

1066
00:53:58,079 --> 00:53:59,960
is really in the market of thinking they're going to

1067
00:54:00,079 --> 00:54:01,800
beat Michigan or play them closier tonight.

1068
00:54:04,000 --> 00:54:06,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, do you do we rule out the possibility of

1069
00:54:07,239 --> 00:54:10,599
Minnesota contributing enough to get this over the full game,

1070
00:54:10,639 --> 00:54:12,079
because that's kind of the way I look at it.

1071
00:54:12,119 --> 00:54:14,639
I don't I don't hate the idea of Michigan of

1072
00:54:14,639 --> 00:54:18,639
Minnesota kind of competing in garbage time here to make

1073
00:54:18,679 --> 00:54:21,480
sure that this one gets over either way. I mean,

1074
00:54:21,519 --> 00:54:24,840
if you listen, if you like the total, you it's

1075
00:54:24,880 --> 00:54:28,079
gonna be difficult to hit a full game total without

1076
00:54:28,119 --> 00:54:32,440
Michigan doing their part, But like, I don't rule out

1077
00:54:33,000 --> 00:54:35,800
Minnesota from from contributing to that total.

1078
00:54:35,840 --> 00:54:37,800
Speaker 2: Rob, what was the number you got on this team total?

1079
00:54:37,840 --> 00:54:42,360
Speaker 3: Here? I show eighty three and a half, right, Yeah,

1080
00:54:42,400 --> 00:54:44,880
eighty three and a half fifteenth cent and choose some

1081
00:54:45,000 --> 00:54:47,559
showing Adams so not overly priced.

1082
00:54:48,920 --> 00:54:51,079
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I'm at so I'm at eighty five

1083
00:54:51,239 --> 00:54:54,199
point one for a projection for Minnesota or if I'm

1084
00:54:54,239 --> 00:54:57,000
sorry for Michigan, So that would suggest that it's it's

1085
00:54:57,039 --> 00:55:01,880
over the team total. But again my my Minnesota projection

1086
00:55:02,199 --> 00:55:06,519
does keep it within slightly within this number. So again

1087
00:55:06,599 --> 00:55:09,400
that's that's sort of where I think the math is

1088
00:55:09,440 --> 00:55:12,239
gonna work out for the total either way on this,

1089
00:55:12,559 --> 00:55:15,440
I think Michigan probably I'm sorry, I think Minnesota likely

1090
00:55:15,480 --> 00:55:19,760
does enough, but yeah, you're gonna I mean, the thing

1091
00:55:19,800 --> 00:55:24,360
that's probably easier to handicap slash rely on is Michigan

1092
00:55:24,400 --> 00:55:26,239
doing their part. So I'm with you there, Rob, I

1093
00:55:26,239 --> 00:55:30,039
think they probably back Listen, I just don't know that

1094
00:55:30,119 --> 00:55:33,199
the like the Duke gloss is not crushing by any means.

1095
00:55:33,239 --> 00:55:36,280
It's a non conference exhibition game. In the middle of February,

1096
00:55:37,480 --> 00:55:39,679
neutral site. I kind of think it's gonna be like

1097
00:55:39,880 --> 00:55:44,079
back to regularly scheduled programming here for Michigan. And if

1098
00:55:44,079 --> 00:55:46,039
that's the case, I don't know, it's tough to say

1099
00:55:46,039 --> 00:55:49,119
that the team will cover twenty two, but I certainly

1100
00:55:49,159 --> 00:55:52,440
don't think getting to like they probably score ninety. Like

1101
00:55:52,480 --> 00:55:56,400
we've seen this, you know, we've seen Michigan do this

1102
00:55:56,440 --> 00:56:00,000
in the past, right against these lower tier Big Ten teams,

1103
00:56:00,039 --> 00:56:03,920
as they dropped one to ten against Penn State, you

1104
00:56:03,960 --> 00:56:06,519
know they I mean, you'd have to go.

1105
00:56:06,559 --> 00:56:07,000
Speaker 2: Back to.

1106
00:56:09,039 --> 00:56:11,119
Speaker 1: I wonder if this is like a little deceiving, like

1107
00:56:11,159 --> 00:56:13,840
a lot of their Big ten Big Ten games are

1108
00:56:13,960 --> 00:56:17,880
right around this number, right around this like eighty three,

1109
00:56:18,000 --> 00:56:21,280
eighty four number. But yeah, you would think after only

1110
00:56:21,360 --> 00:56:25,000
scoring sixty three against Duke that this would be a

1111
00:56:25,239 --> 00:56:29,360
that there might be some emphasis on sort of a

1112
00:56:29,480 --> 00:56:32,440
forty minutes of offense here. And the three games prior

1113
00:56:32,480 --> 00:56:35,800
to Duke were eighty seven, eighty six, ninety one, and

1114
00:56:35,880 --> 00:56:39,079
eighty six and ninety one against UCLA team that's playing

1115
00:56:39,079 --> 00:56:39,840
a lot better.

1116
00:56:39,679 --> 00:56:41,360
Speaker 2: Now, and of course against Purdue.

1117
00:56:41,440 --> 00:56:45,519
Speaker 1: So I'm with you, Rob, I'll be rooting home the

1118
00:56:45,559 --> 00:56:46,800
Michigan team total over.

1119
00:56:46,840 --> 00:56:48,000
Speaker 2: I think that's probably the best way.

1120
00:56:48,760 --> 00:56:52,199
Speaker 3: We'll step down in defensive class two from Duke to Minnesota. Yes,

1121
00:56:52,360 --> 00:56:55,679
Suke was tough on the boards. Boy, Michigan didn't expect

1122
00:56:55,679 --> 00:56:58,320
that type of resistance on the boards, I don't think,

1123
00:56:58,320 --> 00:56:59,639
but they got it on Saturday.

1124
00:57:00,360 --> 00:57:05,119
Speaker 1: Shut up, Jacob, Yeah, Jacob DM me on X Twitter,

1125
00:57:05,199 --> 00:57:08,119
whatever we're calling it these days. I'll take care of,

1126
00:57:08,440 --> 00:57:10,440
you know, the tickets that gave any If anyone's in

1127
00:57:10,480 --> 00:57:13,519
the Jacksonville area and wants to join us for the

1128
00:57:13,639 --> 00:57:16,679
thriller that will be North Florida, Florida Gulf Coast.

1129
00:57:16,599 --> 00:57:17,079
Speaker 3: Hit me up.

1130
00:57:17,599 --> 00:57:19,239
Speaker 2: I'll make it happen for you guys.

1131
00:57:19,400 --> 00:57:22,679
Speaker 1: I I don't think it's gonna be standing room only crowd,

1132
00:57:22,760 --> 00:57:25,079
but we'll see a couple of years ago. Hey, couple

1133
00:57:25,119 --> 00:57:27,519
of years ago, North North Florida was filling that building

1134
00:57:27,559 --> 00:57:29,679
pretty good. They've they've fallen on a little bit of

1135
00:57:29,719 --> 00:57:32,400
tough times, but uh yeah, hit me up on Twitter,

1136
00:57:32,440 --> 00:57:35,239
all right, I want to do this, Rob. I am

1137
00:57:35,320 --> 00:57:38,760
going to put the Baylor Bears in the parlay.

1138
00:57:38,920 --> 00:57:42,079
Speaker 2: I am going to consult.

1139
00:57:41,199 --> 00:57:45,880
Speaker 1: The board here and see what the consensus number is.

1140
00:57:46,639 --> 00:57:49,360
So what we're gonna do is We're gonna take nine

1141
00:57:49,519 --> 00:57:52,119
minus one twenty, okay, because the eight and a halves

1142
00:57:52,119 --> 00:57:55,440
are are pretty prominent out there right now most places.

1143
00:57:55,800 --> 00:57:57,960
So for my league of the parlay, I'm gonna go

1144
00:57:57,960 --> 00:58:01,079
Baylor nine minus one twenty because that puts me within

1145
00:58:01,639 --> 00:58:04,760
one point of where I would play this for clients.

1146
00:58:05,320 --> 00:58:08,119
So we did a pretty long breakdown of this game

1147
00:58:08,159 --> 00:58:10,920
at the beginning of the show. If you missed it,

1148
00:58:11,280 --> 00:58:13,800
go back and check that out. But this two teamer,

1149
00:58:14,199 --> 00:58:17,079
we will do Michigan team total over eighty three and

1150
00:58:17,119 --> 00:58:20,199
a half with minus one fifteen juice, and then I'm

1151
00:58:20,199 --> 00:58:23,440
gonna put Baylor plus nine minus one twenty.

1152
00:58:24,440 --> 00:58:25,320
Speaker 2: It's not a big deal.

1153
00:58:25,320 --> 00:58:27,800
Speaker 1: If you have to pay more for either of those legs,

1154
00:58:27,840 --> 00:58:30,320
you're still gonna get plus money on the parlay. But

1155
00:58:30,519 --> 00:58:32,679
I'll tell you right now, if Baylor somehow gets back

1156
00:58:32,719 --> 00:58:35,320
to ten, probably gonna hit my client card. So it's

1157
00:58:35,320 --> 00:58:38,159
a game I like quite a bit, and that's gonna

1158
00:58:38,199 --> 00:58:42,400
be my parlay leg again. Two teamer Baylor plus nine,

1159
00:58:42,760 --> 00:58:45,360
Michigan team total over eighty three and a half. It's

1160
00:58:45,400 --> 00:58:48,599
five dollars Tuesday. Everyone's got a five all the handicappers

1161
00:58:48,599 --> 00:58:51,679
have a five dollars play up on the site. Right now,

1162
00:58:51,760 --> 00:58:54,760
I have a five percent play, which is full price.

1163
00:58:54,800 --> 00:58:57,360
We never sell the five percenters at the five dollars rate,

1164
00:58:57,440 --> 00:59:00,400
but I can't help that. The game I love on

1165
00:59:00,440 --> 00:59:03,519
a Tuesday, so sorry about that. But I do like

1166
00:59:03,559 --> 00:59:05,360
this one quite a bit that is up on my page.

1167
00:59:05,360 --> 00:59:07,880
And again, you can avoid all of that by just

1168
00:59:07,920 --> 00:59:10,639
getting the double the CBB Firepower package that is three

1169
00:59:10,719 --> 00:59:15,480
days of everything I play everything ROB plays. Package is

1170
00:59:15,760 --> 00:59:18,400
pretty much gonna pay for itself on day one. Knowing

1171
00:59:18,400 --> 00:59:22,159
that you're gonna get a five percenter tonight. So again,

1172
00:59:22,360 --> 00:59:25,039
love love Something tonight, it's up five percent play on

1173
00:59:25,079 --> 00:59:28,960
my page. We have hit the hour mark. We will

1174
00:59:28,960 --> 00:59:31,719
see you guys in the morning for more full court press.

1175
00:59:31,719 --> 00:59:35,199
Good luck today everyone, and we will see you guys tomorrow.

1176
00:59:35,440 --> 00:59:39,320
Speaker 2: Cash all your tickets. Have a great day.