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Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. It is Tuesday. It's time for

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full court Press. It's five dollars Tuesday at Wager Talk,

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like it is every Tuesday. I've got a five dollars

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play up for the NCAA Tournament. I'm sure my co

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host Rob Bino will have at least one five dollars

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play up as well.

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Speaker 2: Rob.

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Speaker 1: There's nothing to recap because we didn't have any games yesterday.

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But what I will say, because we did a show

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and then you and I did a show on Sunday

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with Steve Merrill, Kelly Stewart and Brian Power, when we

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sort of got our first well we got we literally

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watched the bracket in real time. I still I haven't

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got the fine from swearing on air when Sian and

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drew the sixteen seed yet, although I think that might

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be coming. But the point I'm trying to make is

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like we're two days removed from now seeing these matchups,

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getting to break them down for me, Like I found

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myself sort of like backtracking on a couple opinions, but

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now I have like a far clearer view of what

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I want to do.

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Speaker 2: I've got five plays locked.

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Speaker 1: In right now for NCAA tournament games that I feel

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great about.

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Speaker 2: Where are you at now as opposed to where we

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were at when we.

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Speaker 1: Saw those those.

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Speaker 2: Pairings come out on Sunday night, I.

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Speaker 3: Think a little bit clearer. There's certain games that we

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never really got to on Sunday, believe it or not.

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In two hours we talked about we covered a whole

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lot of ground, but there's so much territory to cover

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that I started going through some stuff that we didn't

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even talk about and find myself landing there. I currently

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have three plays up and available. One, however, is an

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n I play. The five dollars play has been up

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since last night and does involve the NCAA tournament. So yeah,

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and now to go back to what you said originally

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being on something strong, I think we talked about this

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a little bit yesterday, being on something strong immediately and

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maybe hedging off or doubling down, whatever the case may be.

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There's a couple of plays there that and I mean,

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let's face it, the Aiden Holloway arrest didn't hurt Hofstra's

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cause yesterday whatsoever obviously factored into the new number. But

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I think I'm probably fifty to fifty half the time

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I'm in the same place I was Sunday, and fifty

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percent of the time I'm like, well, you know what

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you might have overreacted to that one slowed down, pumped

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the brakes, and let's rethink this. So it's an interesting process, Adam.

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And the thing is we get four days basically to

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you know, sometimes oversaturate ourselves with information. Sometimes first reaction

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is great. Sometimes digging in deeper is great. It's it's

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such a inexact science. But I'd like where I'm at

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right now, I think we see things a little bit

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clearer than we did Sunday.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so you know, this is the Tuesday show, which

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means we're we've got two games to talk about. We

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have eight nit pairings we can talk about. If someone

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insists that we go to a tournament game, we'll probably do.

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Speaker 2: That as well.

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Speaker 1: We as you guys know, on this show, we play

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off the chat. Wherever the chat wants to go and

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wants to talk about, that's where we go. But we

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always start with the feature game. And I think this

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is a great example, Rob of one of those pairings

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that like, when it came out, I was looking one way.

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Speaker 2: Now I'm starting to gravitate towards the other side.

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Speaker 1: And actually, as we come on air here, I think

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I have a stronger opinion on the total in this one,

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which is rare for me.

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Speaker 2: So let's start first four.

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Speaker 1: Dayton Ohio, NC State taking on Texas, And when these

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came out, I thought I thought I would like I

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kind of instantly my knee jerk reaction was like, oh, like,

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I'll like, I'll like Texas there, because I've liked this

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Texas team for the past couple months. I've then you

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know how it is when you sort of like are

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ahead of the curve on a team, and I think, like,

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I feel like I was a little bit ahead of

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the curve on Texas really starting to play well during

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conference play. So knee jerk reaction, I sort of leaned

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their way. But then I thought back and said, you know,

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said to myself, hey, like you were on NC State

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in the first meeting between these two teams, which occurred

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this year out in Maui, And you know, going back

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to that game, NC State got a lot of easy baskets,

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crushed Texas at the rim, and Texas went nuts from

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three And you know, I look at those Maui scores,

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Rob and Obviously we joke about the Rims in Maui

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being super friendly.

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Speaker 2: Texas hit sixteen threes.

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Speaker 1: We talked about NC State's defense at that time a

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disaster Seaton Hall lit them up the day before that

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game in Maui. So NC State has kind of even

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though they maybe weren't the team that we thought Will

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Wade might have in his first year. I don't think

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they've necessarily been bad. I've also think they've cleaned up

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some of those issues. But when I look at the

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way these two teams match up, it's hard not to

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see points again here. So I leaned toward the over.

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But talk to me if you like that, and if

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you've got a clear vision as to which side is

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the right way to go in this game.

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Speaker 3: Well I will agree in the respect that I can't

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understand why people would play under in this game and

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they have one sixty two down to one fifty seven

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and a half kind of makes no sense other than

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in a again tournament game winner go home. All those

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old adages that make you kind of believe defensive intensity

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will be there. One thing that does that I would

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put you know, I always have a little list here,

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Adam assets and liabilities to these games, and you know,

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because there's always two sides to everything, there's never a

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clean handicap where every arrow is in your direction, and

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if there is, it's it's a rarity. But the fact

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that they did have the early season meeting kind of

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stops me a little bit, thinking, well, will Wade can

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go to game tape, Sean Miller can go to game

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tape and we can see exactly maybe if there's ways,

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maybe we can read some of their offensive sets now,

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maybe we know what they're trying to do. The problem

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with that is is that both of these guys were

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first year head coaches implementing brand new systems, and that

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game was so long ago back at Thanksgiving time to

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where we are now that they've evolved from where they were.

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I don't know how useful that game tape is to

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tell you the truth, Adam, Because when you're a first

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year head coach doing things differently, and you're in like

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your third game of the year or fourth game of

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the year, you're doing things one way and you constantly

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evolved to try and get used to your personnel. A

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lot of this personnel was brought in new personnel, so

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the whole thing was brand new, and now they're in

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different stages. I don't know if that's useful. So to

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me it became look at the components of both sides here.

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As an NC State has been offensive oriented from the

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get go. I said it yesterday. Will Wade has said it.

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That's why I repeat it that he just hasn't really

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been satisfied with the physical nature of this team or

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lack the of Texas. We talked about titis yesterday, how

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inside he probably can get his but these guard matchups,

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I do have a problem seeing NC State's guards. We

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talked a lot about Copeland yesterday, his tendency to go

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one on one, but he is a playmaker, and I

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do think that Texas has problems stopping him from doing

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the same today. NC State can catch fire from three

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as well as anybody. They've got multiple guys that can

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shoot it. I think they either one or two inside

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the league in three point shooting this year. Maybe a

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little too reliant on it, I'm not sure. To my surprise,

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Sean Miller was I don't know why I would say surprise,

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really I should. Maybe that's more Archie than Sean, But

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to me, Sean Miller was more willing to get up

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and down the floor. In the SEC he saw far

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better opposition than what NC State saw this year. So

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I kind of give a small, slight nod there. I

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would agree with you that if I were to make

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a play on this game, maybe the number has been

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pushed down far enough where it's easily time to push

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back on one fifty seven and a half. You're asking

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for seventy nine aside from these two teams and the

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defenses that they show us. Again, if I thought the

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game film from game one would be relevant, I think differently.

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But I think you did that tape. I don't know,

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maybe you think differently. I don't know what that's worth

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at this point in time.

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Speaker 2: Well, here's the thing.

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Speaker 1: Like you look at the Maui game, you look at

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the score, and I think it's easy for us to say, Okay,

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well that's the Maui. There's there's always high score game,

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scoring games there. The rims are soft, there's it's it's

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not odd to see teams and you know, scoring the hundreds.

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But like the NC State's defense has been terrible. You know,

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that's that's my concern that you know I did. I

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pulled up in the the NC State zip up. Rob

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I got this the DJ Burn year when no one

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gave them a chance. That year they went all the

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way to the final four. Obviously totally different coach to

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a different thing. A lot of luck right there. But

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like the point is, you know, NC State has in

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my like, they haven't been good defensively, so Texas theoretically

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should score their points.

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Speaker 2: But like, and this is just a I'm just just.

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Speaker 1: A gut feel, Darien Williams is so due to have

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a big game, like you know what I mean, Like

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he was. I went back to the first meeting and

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now I remember vividly the outcome of that. Texas NC

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State get you into the first game, Darren Williams didn't

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play well.

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Speaker 2: NC State was right there the whole time.

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Speaker 1: But the threes were wide open, so you can say, oh,

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now he soft rims whatever. Like you know, teams can

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score in that gym, but like Texas, it was just

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wide open three after wide open three, and even with that,

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NC State was still right there at the end of

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that game. And you know, and so yeah, like the

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fact that Wade can go and point that out and say, hey,

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maybe if we don't let them shoot twenty five to

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thirty three's that are wide open, what we probably win

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that game. That that's encouraging to the NC State State

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side in my opinion. So I can't imagine I'll end

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up on a side in this game because I've started

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to swing my opinion toward NC State, but I don't

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think I'm going to like play back against my sort

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of initial read on the game. So that's kind of

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had me graduated gravitating toward the over because I still

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think NC State's defense is a mess. I think Texas

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is going to be able to score. They might, you know,

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if Vocatitis stays out of foul trouble, Texas will have

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a great chance to win and put up points. But

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on the other side, like NC State can score right

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along with them, and you know, maybe that maybe this

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this stage is what Darian Williams needs to have a

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big game because he did not play well in the

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ACC tournament and he really has been I mean, he

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leads the team in scoring rob but has he's been

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kind of disappointment to me this year. So who knows,

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Maybe this is the stage he needs to get going.

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Speaker 3: And I'll give you just really quick here, Adam First, off.

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Let me just say that Texas has not closed the

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season with a band. They have lost like five of seven.

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So Texas comes in a little bit limping, and sometimes

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it's good to have a break, the day off, a

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couple of days off. But I'm gonna give you a

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couple of quotes that are not inspiring from your point

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defensively in the point I tried to make about their

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lack of physicality, but Will Wade Is added again a

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couple of things. He said, now it's our time to

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see if we can do something with this opportunity more

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than what we've done during the regular season. We've got

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to clean up the details and the discipline that go

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with that, and that's going to be a challenge to

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do that quickly before Tuesday. I don't know that the

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guy has any faith that they're going to reverse their

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stripes in this particular game. Therefore, the way to victory,

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the path to victory is to outscore Texas, which they're

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more than capable of doing. I think we're both saying

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the same thing here as far as their scoring ability

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is concerned. But man, in Texas, the you know, the

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uncommon denominator is they have a post game and the

241
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other side doesn't and maybe Texas does get through. Sean

242
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Miller kind of coming up with the same soft quotes

243
00:12:21,279 --> 00:12:25,159
that Will Wade had. You know, we lost to two

244
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teams that didn't make the tournament coming in Oklahoma and Mississippi.

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But we've had a couple of days to rethink to

246
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get ready. So I just don't have a lot of

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faith either side is going to be good defensively here

248
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one fifty seven and a half. Like I said to

249
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start this a little bit head scratching that there would

250
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be so much money toward the under in this game.

251
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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's if I was going to play this game tonight,

252
00:12:47,519 --> 00:12:49,559
it would be the over, and I would just push

253
00:12:49,639 --> 00:12:53,200
back at that market move. You're getting five points better

254
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than the open right now, and two teams that have

255
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not just haven't been prolific defensively. I know it kind

256
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of too easy, but I think that that move is

257
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probably based on someone deciding man one sixty two is

258
00:13:06,759 --> 00:13:11,039
awfully high, Okay, I'll take five points better to bet

259
00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:13,039
a total, right, Like I mean, I think I think

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long term if you think like that, and you always

261
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talk about that on this show, where it's like, can

262
00:13:17,480 --> 00:13:19,639
I make a case to oppose a five point move

263
00:13:19,679 --> 00:13:24,240
because like that, that is probably like a plus ev

264
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bet right there if you do that on like a

265
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regular basis. So looks like it's got down to one

266
00:13:28,919 --> 00:13:30,919
fifty seven. I see a couple of books have ticked

267
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back up to one fifty eight and a half.

268
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Speaker 2: But yeah, I could get down with an over in

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this game.

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Speaker 1: All right, Rob Let's I'm gonna go to Garth. Here, Garth,

271
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We're gonna stay on your game for today. Maybe maybe

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we'll circle back to the to that NCAA tournament game,

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but I'm gonna focus on your game for tonight.

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Speaker 2: I will.

275
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Speaker 1: I'll give this one out because you know, I think

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I'm gonna sell an n T play today, and my

277
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five dollars play that is up on my page is

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for an NCAA tournament game.

279
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Speaker 2: So I will.

280
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Speaker 1: My leg of the parlay rob is going to be

281
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UNBC on the money line. I played it earlier this

282
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morning when it got down to pick and minus won

283
00:14:10,559 --> 00:14:14,519
ten most places. I wonder if any of that had

284
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to do with a tweet from the UNBC twitter account

285
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that's been very, very active the last couple of days,

286
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where they were like stuck on the tarmac waiting to

287
00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:25,919
waiting to leave and get out to Dayton. Do I

288
00:14:25,919 --> 00:14:28,720
think that matters at all? No, not really. I mean

289
00:14:29,200 --> 00:14:32,000
I don't think it's whatever. I'm sure a lot of

290
00:14:32,039 --> 00:14:36,039
these teams experience like flight delays or whatnot, not all

291
00:14:36,080 --> 00:14:37,759
of them tweet about it, So I don't think that

292
00:14:37,879 --> 00:14:40,279
really makes a big deal at all. Where I think

293
00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:42,960
this game is won for UNBC, ROB is that trio

294
00:14:43,039 --> 00:14:47,679
of guards Ace Valentine, DJ Armstrong, King, who has been

295
00:14:48,279 --> 00:14:49,759
I'm not even gonna try to say his first name.

296
00:14:49,759 --> 00:14:56,399
It's like Jacari with a apostrophe. So anyway, the trio

297
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of guards for UNBC veteran, They've been awesome all year.

298
00:15:01,519 --> 00:15:03,840
I noted this year a couple times that the America

299
00:15:03,879 --> 00:15:06,440
East was quite a bit down from what it's been

300
00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:09,320
in years past, maybe the worst the conference has ever been.

301
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But UNBC absolutely dominated down like you know, the final

302
00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:18,120
five five weeks of the regular season, destroyed Vermont twice

303
00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:20,879
in that span, who obviously sort of runs the show

304
00:15:20,879 --> 00:15:23,320
in this league, and the MIAC, in my opinion, was

305
00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:25,679
the worst rated. They should have been the worst rated

306
00:15:25,720 --> 00:15:30,240
league in college basketball. So you get UNBC and Howard here.

307
00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:34,840
I just I think UNBC is the better team, and

308
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I trust their guards to like sort of handle this

309
00:15:37,759 --> 00:15:41,000
game enough where they're not getting into just like a

310
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sloppy type game that Howard can win with their physicality

311
00:15:44,279 --> 00:15:44,799
and size.

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Speaker 2: So if that trio of guards does what I.

313
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Speaker 1: Think they can do here, control the game, make plays,

314
00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:53,360
I don't think UNBC loses. So that's gonna be my

315
00:15:53,399 --> 00:15:56,360
leg at parlay. Talk to me about UNBC, Howard though,

316
00:15:56,519 --> 00:15:59,399
if you agree, disagree. And also this is another total

317
00:15:59,759 --> 00:16:03,159
that that's come down a little bit from the open,

318
00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:04,519
not quite as much as the other game.

319
00:16:06,240 --> 00:16:08,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, I played it yesterday Adam, and I got the

320
00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:11,240
better of the number one thirty nine and a half.

321
00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:14,720
I've played it over late in the day for reasons

322
00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:19,480
that we discussed here yesterday. I just feel like, where

323
00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:23,960
UNBC is concerned, you play in an America East conference

324
00:16:24,039 --> 00:16:29,399
that is filled with pedestrianto let's say, less than pedestrian

325
00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:32,200
type pace teams. Just about everybody in that league is slow.

326
00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:35,080
They don't want to go up and down. Howard plays

327
00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:38,279
with pace. I think their tempo ranking adjusted tempo was

328
00:16:38,360 --> 00:16:44,039
inside the top ninety in the country. So for me, UNBC,

329
00:16:45,279 --> 00:16:47,519
who I think You've mentioned the guard trio, who I

330
00:16:47,919 --> 00:16:51,399
believe is more than happy to get into a little

331
00:16:51,399 --> 00:16:54,919
more of an up and down offensively. They'll appreciate that,

332
00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:56,919
and I think Howard will come back at them the

333
00:16:56,960 --> 00:17:03,679
same And for that reason and UNBC playing slow to

334
00:17:03,919 --> 00:17:08,200
even slower paced teams, I think their defensive numbers are

335
00:17:08,240 --> 00:17:11,039
somewhat skewed. This was like the key point I have. Yes,

336
00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:14,680
I think both sides have defensive numbers that are somewhat

337
00:17:14,720 --> 00:17:18,960
skewed because of league competition. Miak, I think you just

338
00:17:19,039 --> 00:17:21,920
said it. They're ranked. I think they were ranked as

339
00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:27,279
the worst conference in Ken Palm ratings, rightfully so. But

340
00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:29,359
Howard has gone through a season where they haven't had

341
00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:33,079
to play any real threats. UNBC is a legitimate offensive threat,

342
00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:37,640
so I think that that lends itself to UNBC scoring points.

343
00:17:38,319 --> 00:17:41,480
And on the other side of the coin, I feel

344
00:17:41,480 --> 00:17:45,680
like unbc's defensive numbers are somewhat based on the fact

345
00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:48,799
that they were good defensively, but somewhat based on the

346
00:17:48,839 --> 00:17:51,559
fact that they're just low possession games and when you

347
00:17:51,559 --> 00:17:54,319
play in these games that are sixty three sixty two

348
00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:57,960
possession games. Of course, if you're any good defensively, you're

349
00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:02,400
gonna hold your opponent down scoreboard wise. Howard's not going

350
00:18:02,480 --> 00:18:05,000
to play like that. Howard is capable, and I think

351
00:18:05,039 --> 00:18:07,519
you even said this yesterday. Howard is more than capable

352
00:18:07,559 --> 00:18:11,480
of putting the ball in the basket. And to me,

353
00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:15,440
I just thought that again, the total was predicated on

354
00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:19,440
season long numbers, which are basically dominated by conference play

355
00:18:19,519 --> 00:18:22,480
numbers because you play eighteen twenty conference games, so obviously

356
00:18:22,519 --> 00:18:24,960
they're going to be the heavier part of the overalls.

357
00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:27,359
And I thought one thirty nine and a half was

358
00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:29,039
too low. We have seen the bump back to one

359
00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:31,000
forty and a half. Glad I got in when I did,

360
00:18:31,960 --> 00:18:33,759
but I do like it over I just think that

361
00:18:34,839 --> 00:18:39,640
these two teams probably will find each other's styles to

362
00:18:39,759 --> 00:18:42,960
their liking, at least from an offensive perspective, and we

363
00:18:43,039 --> 00:18:46,000
can get ourselves in some way, shape or form to

364
00:18:46,079 --> 00:18:49,720
a seventy one to seventy game, or in my case,

365
00:18:49,759 --> 00:18:52,880
get the seventy seventy and we cover the number here.

366
00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:55,960
That's the way I feel. I feel like this one's

367
00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:56,839
going to get up and over.

368
00:18:59,240 --> 00:19:01,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, So I want to go out like last year.

369
00:19:01,359 --> 00:19:06,119
Last year's UNBC team played this Howard team, and even

370
00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:11,279
though it wasn't the exact same roster like it was

371
00:19:11,319 --> 00:19:13,319
it was, this team was still made up very similar

372
00:19:13,559 --> 00:19:15,640
Last year. They had Marcus Banks, who's who's now at

373
00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:21,400
UMass had a great season. Want josh Old od Wonoh,

374
00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:24,480
I think it's his name is still there. Obviously Ace

375
00:19:24,559 --> 00:19:27,319
Valentine's still there. But the two guards they've brought in,

376
00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:31,960
like UNBC really hasn't skipped a beat. If anything, They've

377
00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:34,680
been able to sort of build on last season to

378
00:19:34,759 --> 00:19:37,400
be better this year. And the only reason I bring

379
00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:41,079
up last year is they played this game back in November,

380
00:19:41,559 --> 00:19:44,359
and you know, UNBC dropped ninety five in that game,

381
00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:47,519
won ninety five to seventy seven. So I do think

382
00:19:47,559 --> 00:19:50,079
that even though that was last year's team, I think

383
00:19:50,119 --> 00:19:52,920
the team still kind of match up similar in terms

384
00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:54,559
of the way that they're structured and the way that

385
00:19:54,599 --> 00:19:58,039
they play, and UNBC was able to put up ninety

386
00:19:58,039 --> 00:20:01,039
five and totally blow that game up. Been not saying

387
00:20:01,039 --> 00:20:03,400
it's gonna be you know that. I'm not saying that's

388
00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:05,960
what's gonna happen here. But I still think you give

389
00:20:06,039 --> 00:20:10,279
me that trio of guards, where like you said, they

390
00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:13,480
probably that We've seen UNBC go up and down with teams,

391
00:20:13,559 --> 00:20:15,799
especially in the non conference when they when they get

392
00:20:16,000 --> 00:20:19,119
teams that will play that pace. Those three are just

393
00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:21,400
veterans that I trust to win a game, whereas Howard,

394
00:20:22,559 --> 00:20:24,880
I think Howard really needs to turn this into a

395
00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:28,599
slugfest to win this game. And I just I don't

396
00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:31,400
know that UNBC is going to fall into that trap

397
00:20:31,559 --> 00:20:34,440
because you have three sure handed playmakers that have been

398
00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:36,839
putting the ball in the basket at a very efficient

399
00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:41,480
rate for five to six weeks now. So yeah, I Garth,

400
00:20:41,519 --> 00:20:45,039
I'm with you, UNBC money line. I bought that little

401
00:20:45,079 --> 00:20:47,279
dip down from one and a half to pick and

402
00:20:47,319 --> 00:20:49,240
someone in the chat said, feels like a lot of

403
00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:51,039
people are on that and it went down to pick.

404
00:20:51,759 --> 00:20:52,720
Speaker 2: I don't know if I would.

405
00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:56,759
Speaker 1: I don't know if that really matters to me here,

406
00:20:56,799 --> 00:20:59,359
Like yeah, like listen, it's super public like that.

407
00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:02,559
Speaker 2: This is the end a tournament. The public is gonna bet,

408
00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:05,640
and that's just I would.

409
00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:07,960
Speaker 1: I would put less stock before we get to the

410
00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:10,440
next game, Rob, I gotta be honest. I think I

411
00:21:10,519 --> 00:21:14,000
put less stock into what the public is doing in

412
00:21:14,039 --> 00:21:16,319
the first couple rounds, Like the first round of the

413
00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:21,319
NCAA Tournament just does not matter, like in my opinion,

414
00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:27,240
if what matters is you playing a line that was playable,

415
00:21:27,799 --> 00:21:29,960
like if the because because this is such a big

416
00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:33,440
betting event that the public will move some stuff, stuff

417
00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:36,440
will be trendy, it will move because of the almost

418
00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:38,720
like that the public steam a lot.

419
00:21:38,559 --> 00:21:39,799
Speaker 2: Of times will move something.

420
00:21:40,519 --> 00:21:44,880
Speaker 1: It does not mean like I mean the off memory,

421
00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:48,039
Rob didn't the public just absolutely crush the first couple

422
00:21:48,039 --> 00:21:51,039
of rounds last year because of because every favorite one

423
00:21:51,079 --> 00:21:54,880
we just didn't have that many dogs, Like they'll they'll

424
00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:56,880
give it back at the later rounds when the books

425
00:21:56,920 --> 00:21:59,319
can really like there's four games and the books can

426
00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:01,079
can shape it one way or the other.

427
00:22:01,519 --> 00:22:04,319
Speaker 2: But uh, like like bay You says, this is this

428
00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:05,839
is exactly how I feel.

429
00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:08,880
Speaker 1: Don't look at the public sharp splits in the first

430
00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:11,319
round of the NCAA Tournament. N I t it might

431
00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:14,039
help you a little bit more. This tournament is all

432
00:22:14,079 --> 00:22:17,119
public money. Worry about getting the getting the side that

433
00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:20,599
is the right side in your opinion, at the right number.

434
00:22:20,759 --> 00:22:22,960
I felt like we did that with u NBC money line.

435
00:22:23,079 --> 00:22:26,000
So UNBC money line four percent play for me and

436
00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:29,000
my leg in the parlay. Are you are what are you?

437
00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:32,039
Are you acknowledging the sharp splits right now?

438
00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:34,079
Speaker 2: Rob? Or are you in the same boat as us?

439
00:22:34,599 --> 00:22:37,720
Speaker 3: Well? Two things here, because Kelly asked us this question

440
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:40,880
on last call, you know, last Saturday or Saturday before.

441
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:43,960
I'm one of those guys who generally doesn't pay attention

442
00:22:44,039 --> 00:22:47,640
to them. Ever, me too, ever, public I'm not looking

443
00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:51,400
at percentages of tickets and money and all that stuff.

444
00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:55,359
But I will say this. We made this point yesterday.

445
00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:57,640
You're hammering it home right now that there is so

446
00:22:57,799 --> 00:23:02,559
much money bit on this tournament by people who don't

447
00:23:02,599 --> 00:23:06,319
bet college basketball all season long. This is a bracket fest.

448
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:10,200
This is an absolute mustye type of tournament, and everybody's

449
00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:15,279
going to play those opinions. Adam of the bandwagoners are

450
00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:19,079
heavily influenced by what they see off the television. Right Oh,

451
00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:22,119
this guy says that, you know twelve McNeice is a winner.

452
00:23:22,319 --> 00:23:25,160
You gotta go play mcnease. You know, however, it's hyped

453
00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:28,440
up on TV. That's gonna sway the money more in

454
00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:32,000
this tournament than it sways money in any college basketball

455
00:23:32,039 --> 00:23:36,519
game that we see all season long. So a lot

456
00:23:36,519 --> 00:23:40,000
of times you can find value if you like another side,

457
00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:42,920
because public, like you say, has the ability because there's

458
00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:46,799
so much volume bet by the public that they you

459
00:23:46,839 --> 00:23:49,240
can find value in a game that maybe they push

460
00:23:49,279 --> 00:23:52,279
one way because of what they've seen or heard. I

461
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:55,160
love if values in the chat. Let me just say

462
00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:58,160
that I went back because I want you to check

463
00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:02,680
something really quick on our Sunday Live Live Reaction broadcast.

464
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:05,240
And at the end of that chat by you makes

465
00:24:05,279 --> 00:24:07,440
a great point and I think this is what I'm

466
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:09,960
trying to say here. He says, I can't wait to

467
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:12,440
see Nate Burlison's take on these games.

468
00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:16,519
Speaker 4: And I mean, it's why your reposits here, right, Like

469
00:24:17,039 --> 00:24:19,519
people like us would love to know what Nate Burlinson

470
00:24:19,559 --> 00:24:23,160
thinks about these games, because that's the type of people

471
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:24,000
that they put in.

472
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:29,200
Speaker 3: Their studios to try and influence betting money. So it

473
00:24:29,279 --> 00:24:32,440
is different, it's a different betting event. And so therefore,

474
00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:38,200
long story short, I don't stare at public money, dollars, tickets,

475
00:24:38,279 --> 00:24:41,880
whatever public sharp splits. I'm just not one of those

476
00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:43,480
guys that follows that stuff.

477
00:24:44,759 --> 00:24:45,440
Speaker 2: Quick promo.

478
00:24:45,559 --> 00:24:48,279
Speaker 1: It's Tuesday, so it's five dollars Tuesday on the site.

479
00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:49,960
I have a playoff for five dollars. Role will have

480
00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:52,559
a playout for five dollars, but I mean, right now,

481
00:24:52,799 --> 00:24:54,880
it makes far more sense to take advantage of that

482
00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:59,480
double the CBB Firepower package either three days or the

483
00:24:59,519 --> 00:25:01,680
rest of the way through it through the NCAA Tournament.

484
00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:04,839
I believe for the full package through the NCAA Tournament,

485
00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:07,440
you have to email into customer support if you want

486
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:09,200
both of us, but they'll get they'll they'll work up

487
00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:12,559
a nice two for one for you on there. You know,

488
00:25:12,599 --> 00:25:14,480
if you do the three day I think you're gonna

489
00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:18,839
have access to at least at least Thursday's NCAAA moves,

490
00:25:19,079 --> 00:25:21,039
a lot of which you know, I've already locked in

491
00:25:21,039 --> 00:25:24,079
in a handful of plays, So check that out for us.

492
00:25:24,519 --> 00:25:26,960
You know, if you're looking for this kind of information

493
00:25:27,039 --> 00:25:30,359
and written form for your first and second round picks,

494
00:25:31,039 --> 00:25:32,759
we've got that up on the website.

495
00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:35,359
Speaker 2: So check out that package. Garth.

496
00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:36,720
Speaker 1: I'm gonna come to your play in a second, but

497
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:39,960
I'm gonna use an earlier n I T game to illustrate.

498
00:25:40,759 --> 00:25:43,759
I guess the the point that I was trying to make,

499
00:25:43,799 --> 00:25:47,599
where the NCAA Tournament is very public, I'm typically not

500
00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:49,839
worried about what the public is doing. I'm typically not

501
00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:53,319
worried about like a like a big line move here

502
00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:55,920
or there. All I'm trying to figure out is, you know,

503
00:25:56,079 --> 00:25:59,599
if it's if it's if there's injury news. But like

504
00:25:59,599 --> 00:26:01,640
with the end tournament, we're gonna find a lot of

505
00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:03,799
that out. But most of most of the moves that

506
00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:05,680
might have occurred based on an injury, you kind of

507
00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:09,759
already know what the idea is for the NCAA tournament.

508
00:26:10,559 --> 00:26:13,680
Flip over to the NIT, and this is where I'm

509
00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:15,799
gonna be more put off by, like, let's say, like

510
00:26:15,839 --> 00:26:17,960
a two point move, because if you go back to

511
00:26:18,039 --> 00:26:21,400
last year's n I t or in recent years, the

512
00:26:21,559 --> 00:26:24,519
hard part about betting NIT today and tomorrow in the

513
00:26:24,519 --> 00:26:27,519
first round is you don't really know what team is

514
00:26:27,559 --> 00:26:28,119
showing up.

515
00:26:28,599 --> 00:26:29,559
Speaker 2: You don't know if.

516
00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:31,759
Speaker 1: They're gonna show up with the same guys they had

517
00:26:31,839 --> 00:26:34,319
all season long. Why would that be Because some of

518
00:26:34,319 --> 00:26:36,359
these guys are gonna opt out. Some of these guys

519
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:40,680
are gonna hit the portal and not want to finish

520
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:43,920
the season with their team. So for me, rob I

521
00:26:44,599 --> 00:26:48,799
really tread lightly on these first two days, or I'll

522
00:26:48,799 --> 00:26:52,319
typically bet like if you remember last year, the entire

523
00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:55,599
Samford team went on spring break, they got drawn into

524
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:57,559
the NIT. They had to call him back home. They said,

525
00:26:57,559 --> 00:26:58,880
guys got to get back home, we got to go

526
00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:01,960
play a game, and George Mason kind of crushed them.

527
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:03,920
They were not ready to play in that game. So

528
00:27:04,039 --> 00:27:06,720
let's go to that game, liberty George Mason in the

529
00:27:06,839 --> 00:27:10,119
nit tonight because you have George Mason here. A home

530
00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:14,839
team which opened six, and this quickly got slammed down

531
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:17,680
to like four and a half, where I think it's

532
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:19,160
a four to four and a half where it's sort

533
00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:21,920
of settled in right now. Maybe it gets bought back

534
00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:25,119
a little bit. But just before I even get into

535
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:28,720
the breakdown of this game, this is where you really

536
00:27:28,799 --> 00:27:33,400
got to start to evaluate potential mindset. In my opinion,

537
00:27:34,039 --> 00:27:36,920
George Mason played in this tournament last year. I think

538
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:39,640
they made it two or three games. I think at

539
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:41,640
one point in time they probably felt like they were

540
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:44,359
going to go to the NCAA Tournament. I was at

541
00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:47,359
their regular season finale. They played the best game they've

542
00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:49,599
played all year. They blew out Saint Louis by thirty.

543
00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:52,480
I feel like they probably thought they were going to

544
00:27:52,519 --> 00:27:54,960
go into the A ten tournament and make a run,

545
00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:57,519
and they got bounced early by Saint Bonaventure.

546
00:27:57,599 --> 00:27:59,960
Speaker 2: So I see the Liberty money.

547
00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:02,799
Speaker 1: Liberty is probably disappointed, rob but they didn't make the

548
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:04,920
NCAA tournament having won their league?

549
00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:06,599
Speaker 3: Where?

550
00:28:06,799 --> 00:28:07,680
Speaker 2: How where?

551
00:28:07,799 --> 00:28:09,599
Speaker 1: How do you look at this from a from a

552
00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:13,279
perspective of Okay, maybe George Mason isn't as interested in

553
00:28:13,319 --> 00:28:16,119
this tournament because they played in it last year, or

554
00:28:16,559 --> 00:28:18,400
Liberty they felt like they.

555
00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:19,599
Speaker 2: Were going to the NCAA tournament.

556
00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:22,519
Speaker 1: They are the the poster child for one seed that's

557
00:28:22,519 --> 00:28:25,640
slipped up and now you're the dream is over. Who

558
00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:27,400
do you think gets up for this game? Liberty or

559
00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:28,079
George Mason.

560
00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:32,920
Speaker 3: It's always a great question a couple of things about

561
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:35,440
this tournament, and it's not that it doesn't apply to

562
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:38,720
the NCAA tournament as well. But to your point, Adam,

563
00:28:38,759 --> 00:28:42,000
there's always been a philosophy about this tournament that if

564
00:28:42,039 --> 00:28:45,960
you get by the first game, Madison Square Gardens starts

565
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:49,039
to look better and better and better. So for favorites.

566
00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:52,839
In other words, if they have the motivation, if they

567
00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:56,440
have the ambition to get through a first game, then

568
00:28:56,640 --> 00:28:59,039
generally once they get through the first one, they're like, okay,

569
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:01,920
we can we can move on here. Now everybody wants

570
00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:07,440
to get the MSG. It interested me really quick the

571
00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:12,000
teams that exited or didn't accept bids from this tournament. Belmont,

572
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:14,400
now we don't want to play Virginia Tech. Now we

573
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:18,200
don't want to play San Diego State, Seaton Hall, Indiana,

574
00:29:18,319 --> 00:29:22,000
Florida State, and Oklahoma. This could it's a good tourney

575
00:29:22,039 --> 00:29:24,319
as it is, could have been a great gentlement of

576
00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:27,359
people that accepted bids. I think one of the key

577
00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:29,839
things here is days off. You get a lot of

578
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:33,200
mid majors, low majors and mid majors in this tournament

579
00:29:33,559 --> 00:29:36,480
that played their conference tournaments not last weekend, but two

580
00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:40,079
weekends ago. So you're talking about eight nine days off rest. RUSS,

581
00:29:40,079 --> 00:29:43,319
that's always twenty twenty hindsight, we don't know the answer

582
00:29:43,359 --> 00:29:48,480
to that. My handicaps in these early games kind of

583
00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:50,599
gets simplistic. Oh yeah, last point I want to make,

584
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:53,359
is it totals better? It's always funny to me, but

585
00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:57,480
it comes true that when you go down the NCAA

586
00:29:57,599 --> 00:30:01,720
tournament board and just just look at every single game

587
00:30:01,759 --> 00:30:05,119
and watch which way the total moves. Generally speaking, seven

588
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:07,559
out of ten are bet to the under, maybe more

589
00:30:08,079 --> 00:30:10,279
n I t every game is bet to the over,

590
00:30:10,799 --> 00:30:13,680
and they play scoring games every year. But this is

591
00:30:13,759 --> 00:30:16,680
like the over tournament where money is concerned early betting

592
00:30:16,759 --> 00:30:20,400
is concerned the other tournament under betting. For me, this

593
00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:24,039
game became pretty simplistic because the styles. Neither team wants

594
00:30:24,079 --> 00:30:29,279
to run. George Mason's better defensively. Liberty is not bad

595
00:30:29,319 --> 00:30:32,839
defensively because they'll get back, they'll take you out of transition,

596
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:35,079
They'll make you play their half court against their half

597
00:30:35,160 --> 00:30:37,359
court defense. I don't know that George Mason wants to

598
00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:40,559
run anyway. They haven't shown that tendency all season long.

599
00:30:41,119 --> 00:30:42,960
But I think that they have more shot makers on

600
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:46,720
the Liberty side. If I'm gonna play this game, and

601
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:51,240
if motivation is equal, and if pace is equal and defense,

602
00:30:51,319 --> 00:30:54,000
I give the slight edge the GMU home floor. We

603
00:30:54,039 --> 00:30:57,119
have to give the GM. You don't know about their

604
00:30:57,160 --> 00:31:01,200
interest level, but shot makers to me make the difference here.

605
00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:03,119
So when I can get this amount of points with

606
00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:05,279
a team that can shoot threes the way Liberty can,

607
00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:09,799
I'm probably interested in that side again. The disappointment Liberty

608
00:31:09,799 --> 00:31:13,119
went out in their first crack at the CUSA Tournament.

609
00:31:13,119 --> 00:31:16,000
I mean Missouris took them out right away. There's got

610
00:31:16,119 --> 00:31:20,240
to be a little bit of motivation from them here.

611
00:31:20,359 --> 00:31:23,200
So I didn't play it, Adam, but I think my

612
00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:26,240
very very simple lean here is to the team that

613
00:31:26,279 --> 00:31:29,640
makes more shots. George Mason has such a tendency to

614
00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:34,200
brick brick brick brick that I would rather have liberty

615
00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:35,160
plus points.

616
00:31:37,079 --> 00:31:39,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is this is such an interesting one because

617
00:31:40,599 --> 00:31:43,599
I'm having like again, I'm having a hard time figuring

618
00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:47,240
out where that like what I think, you know, the

619
00:31:47,279 --> 00:31:50,720
game's in Fairfax, so that that they should typically they

620
00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:52,279
get they got a live I'm pretty sure they got

621
00:31:52,319 --> 00:31:54,240
a lively crowd for the n I T last year,

622
00:31:54,559 --> 00:31:57,519
and you know there that's that is one place where

623
00:31:57,519 --> 00:32:00,519
it's like George Mason's fans like pretty much always show up.

624
00:32:02,359 --> 00:32:03,319
Speaker 2: I feel like they get.

625
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:07,000
Speaker 1: Very very good band support more often than not, so

626
00:32:07,039 --> 00:32:09,559
that I kind of expect that they'll have I think

627
00:32:09,559 --> 00:32:12,000
there was eight thousand in a ten thousand seed arena

628
00:32:12,039 --> 00:32:13,680
when I was there the other day. I feel like

629
00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:16,160
they're gonna have some people come out and watch this game.

630
00:32:17,519 --> 00:32:19,720
But now, like for that big of a move, six

631
00:32:19,759 --> 00:32:21,960
down to four and a half very quickly. That's where

632
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:23,640
I got to kind of dig and see if I

633
00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:26,000
can get any info on George Mason.

634
00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:27,880
Speaker 2: Do they have Are they going to show up without

635
00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:29,039
two starters? Right?

636
00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:31,799
Speaker 1: Like is Liberty gonna show up without multiple starters? So

637
00:32:31,799 --> 00:32:35,440
I think that is like what I'll be looking for though,

638
00:32:35,559 --> 00:32:38,319
Like if I'm from a handicapping perspective, what you're gonna

639
00:32:38,319 --> 00:32:40,599
want to do tonight and tomorrow, even if you don't

640
00:32:40,599 --> 00:32:43,720
play the n I t is make notes and see

641
00:32:43,759 --> 00:32:47,240
who's not showing up in that starting lineup, because chances

642
00:32:47,279 --> 00:32:50,000
are if they're out for game one, they're out for

643
00:32:50,079 --> 00:32:52,119
the tournament almost in every scenario.

644
00:32:52,599 --> 00:32:55,519
Speaker 2: And I remember last year you had a lot of like.

645
00:32:57,039 --> 00:33:01,039
Speaker 1: As it pertained to like Chattanooga Bradley, you know guys

646
00:33:01,039 --> 00:33:03,920
that like it kept being rumored, Oh this guy might play,

647
00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:06,000
this guy might play, and they never played because I

648
00:33:06,279 --> 00:33:07,920
think I think a lot of these guys like they

649
00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:10,200
make a conscious effort no I'm out for the tournament

650
00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:13,799
and they're out. So that that's something I'll be looking

651
00:33:13,839 --> 00:33:16,519
at tonight tomorrow. I don't I haven't played anything yet,

652
00:33:16,519 --> 00:33:18,359
but I think that is the approach you need to

653
00:33:18,480 --> 00:33:20,240
use with the n I T. Take a look at

654
00:33:20,279 --> 00:33:22,759
the starting lineups, see if that guy came off the bench,

655
00:33:23,079 --> 00:33:25,640
if if two of their top four scorers did not

656
00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:28,160
play in the opener, they're probably not gonna play on Saturday,

657
00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:33,400
and and sort of make your adjustments from there. We'll

658
00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:35,640
stay let's stay in the n I T and go

659
00:33:35,680 --> 00:33:39,039
to So Garth says his n T best bet is

660
00:33:39,119 --> 00:33:44,440
you see Irvine minus two and a half. This is

661
00:33:44,599 --> 00:33:46,759
this is interesting because you see Irvine went to the

662
00:33:46,799 --> 00:33:49,240
final of this tournament last year. I believe they lost

663
00:33:49,279 --> 00:33:51,559
in a in overtime in a very very good game.

664
00:33:51,559 --> 00:33:54,079
And one final thing I'll point out before I kicked

665
00:33:54,160 --> 00:33:56,920
this West Coast game over to you, Rob, I believe

666
00:33:56,960 --> 00:34:00,039
this year the final is at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis,

667
00:34:00,119 --> 00:34:02,400
and for the first time ever, it's going to be

668
00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:05,319
part of Final four weekend. So they're actually going to

669
00:34:05,359 --> 00:34:08,519
play this game like as part of the Final four,

670
00:34:08,679 --> 00:34:13,280
like Saturday or or the weekend at Hinkle. And of

671
00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:18,079
course the final four this year is in Indianapolis at

672
00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:21,079
at Lucas Oil. I believe, I think, or yeah, I

673
00:34:21,119 --> 00:34:24,760
think that's probably where it is. So what what do

674
00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:26,639
you make of that, like, that's pretty cool to that.

675
00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:28,440
Now you know, maybe you're not going to playing to

676
00:34:28,440 --> 00:34:30,960
go to MSG. You're playing to basically be part of

677
00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:33,320
Final four weekend, so you will get a chance where

678
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:36,000
all eyes are on you that weekend in a standalone game.

679
00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:39,639
And uh take that discussion right into Garth's best bet

680
00:34:39,679 --> 00:34:41,320
you see Irvine minus two and a half.

681
00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:45,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, interesting, Adam, I kept preferring MSG showing off my

682
00:34:46,079 --> 00:34:50,159
age and covering this tournament so often the semis are

683
00:34:50,159 --> 00:34:54,360
in hinkle, the championship is in gamebridge, which must be

684
00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:57,360
where the NCAA Final is in gamebridge if it's on

685
00:34:57,440 --> 00:34:59,679
the same way. That playing on the same weekend as

686
00:34:59,679 --> 00:35:03,239
the end championship is huge for these kids to get

687
00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:06,960
eyeballs on them because sometimes the NIT is the forgotten tournament.

688
00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:09,400
This year the NIT, kudos to them to make sure

689
00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:12,440
that it's not the forgotten tournament. That you can watch

690
00:35:12,519 --> 00:35:16,440
us too, so the incentive to get there is huge.

691
00:35:16,599 --> 00:35:19,320
I'm going to backtrack real fast. Is something that you

692
00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:23,119
said about starting lineups, check and see if Kidchen. We

693
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:25,639
deal with an element nowadays that we never had to

694
00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:28,119
deal with, and that is the transfer Portland. Some of

695
00:35:28,159 --> 00:35:31,840
these kids on these teams, especially mid majors, have their

696
00:35:31,880 --> 00:35:35,360
eyes on transferring out and that's half a reason why

697
00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:37,840
you wouldn't play in a tournament like this. You already

698
00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:40,199
have one foot out the door. I'm gonna be I'm

699
00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:42,719
talking with another team already. I'm pretty well set to

700
00:35:42,719 --> 00:35:44,800
go somewhere else. I'm not going to play in this tournament.

701
00:35:45,639 --> 00:35:49,719
A lot of stuff to consider here where personnel is concerned.

702
00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:55,199
In this game, UNLV made a heck of a run.

703
00:35:55,960 --> 00:35:59,199
Josh Passner got his doors blown in by Utah State

704
00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:02,800
second round I think of the Mountain West Conference tournament.

705
00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:06,119
But he had that team playing as well as they played.

706
00:36:06,639 --> 00:36:09,599
I tell you the truth that help me remember the game.

707
00:36:09,719 --> 00:36:12,679
I know you and I both were up because we

708
00:36:12,719 --> 00:36:16,559
were texting about it. UNLB looked horrible. They couldn't even

709
00:36:16,639 --> 00:36:18,360
dribble the ball across half court.

710
00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:23,840
Speaker 1: It was New Mexico, I think New Mexico, and it.

711
00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:25,599
Speaker 3: Was like, at that point in time, I'm like, this

712
00:36:25,639 --> 00:36:28,920
team is horrendous. I'm never betting them. And somehow Passinger

713
00:36:29,079 --> 00:36:32,039
rallied that team to play pretty well down the stretch,

714
00:36:32,239 --> 00:36:35,440
got a Mountain West Conference win in the tournament, and

715
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:38,559
then got crushed by Utah State, which is just a

716
00:36:38,559 --> 00:36:42,000
better team here Irvine. I think one of the points

717
00:36:42,000 --> 00:36:44,920
you made is very valid a team. I often use

718
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:46,960
this in a handicap of this tournament. If a team

719
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:50,480
gets close, especially if it's a mid major, and you

720
00:36:50,599 --> 00:36:54,480
get close to winning the tournament the prior season, I

721
00:36:54,480 --> 00:36:57,400
think the motivation is there the next season. Now, again,

722
00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:01,119
you have to have some of the same returnees on

723
00:37:01,199 --> 00:37:03,440
that team, because if your whole squad is brand new,

724
00:37:03,440 --> 00:37:06,199
it really doesn't apply as much as it would if

725
00:37:06,239 --> 00:37:08,519
you have guys that have been there want to get

726
00:37:08,559 --> 00:37:13,079
back there. I'd like this game over the total for

727
00:37:13,199 --> 00:37:19,599
a lot of reasons. UNLV, with Passner playing faster, certainly

728
00:37:19,599 --> 00:37:22,599
showed more capability to score. I don't know what their

729
00:37:22,719 --> 00:37:25,199
level of interest is in this. All I know is

730
00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:28,039
that they did play a lot better down the stretch,

731
00:37:28,039 --> 00:37:30,719
and I wouldn't expect that to change. Josh Passner is

732
00:37:30,719 --> 00:37:34,199
a guy who's trying to build a program, and I

733
00:37:34,239 --> 00:37:36,760
don't think those types of coaches walk into these games

734
00:37:36,760 --> 00:37:39,760
and you know, a schedule loss, so to speak. And

735
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:41,920
we didn't make the NCAA tournament. They were never going

736
00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:44,679
to make the NCAAA tournament, so this is kind of

737
00:37:44,719 --> 00:37:49,159
a prize to them. Irvine obviously little heartbreak from not

738
00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:52,800
being in the NCAAA tournament. This game at Canny's NIT

739
00:37:53,039 --> 00:37:57,320
totals get bashed to the overeven up to one fifty

740
00:37:57,360 --> 00:38:00,440
two and a half. Irvine's still a good defense team,

741
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:03,519
but man, are they offensively capable this year? And I

742
00:38:03,599 --> 00:38:07,079
think these games just get played looser for whatever reason,

743
00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:09,840
especially these first round games get played a little bit looser.

744
00:38:10,159 --> 00:38:14,719
So I'm looking at unlbucer over the total right now,

745
00:38:14,719 --> 00:38:16,840
sitting at one fifty two and a half value maybe

746
00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:20,000
long gone. That's why I haven't bet it's still looking

747
00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:20,320
at it.

748
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:24,000
Speaker 1: See this is this is a prime example of a

749
00:38:24,039 --> 00:38:28,119
game that I'm gonna watch intently because I loved where

750
00:38:28,199 --> 00:38:32,800
Josh Passner's like he was. I enjoyed listening to him

751
00:38:32,840 --> 00:38:34,880
talk this week at the Mountain West. He had he

752
00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:37,440
had a ton of positive energy. You know, they won

753
00:38:37,480 --> 00:38:40,400
their first game. It didn't work out against Utah State,

754
00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:41,920
but I don't think there's much of a shame like

755
00:38:42,119 --> 00:38:43,559
they would have they would have had to beat Utah

756
00:38:43,639 --> 00:38:45,880
State for the third time this year. Kind of no

757
00:38:46,000 --> 00:38:48,199
shame in getting beat by them. He came out after

758
00:38:48,199 --> 00:38:50,320
the game and was like, I want to keep this

759
00:38:50,400 --> 00:38:53,159
team together, Like he said it in the post game

760
00:38:53,159 --> 00:38:55,280
where he was like, I got to get out in fundraise.

761
00:38:55,559 --> 00:38:57,119
I got to figure out what I've got to do

762
00:38:57,239 --> 00:38:59,079
because I want. I want these guys to come back.

763
00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:02,800
So I'll be looking at UNLV and what this starting

764
00:39:02,800 --> 00:39:06,480
lineup looks like, because if UNLV's got the guys that

765
00:39:06,519 --> 00:39:08,519
they have been playing with for the last month now

766
00:39:08,519 --> 00:39:11,679
and everyone's in, they might I kind of think they

767
00:39:11,679 --> 00:39:14,920
could win this tournament. But if they show up at

768
00:39:14,960 --> 00:39:17,400
the Burn Events Center tonight, which again should be noted,

769
00:39:17,599 --> 00:39:21,159
you see Irvine has probably doesn't get many of these

770
00:39:21,239 --> 00:39:24,239
name opponents on their home floor, so this is probably

771
00:39:24,320 --> 00:39:26,679
exciting for them to get to host the host UNLB,

772
00:39:27,079 --> 00:39:29,800
which is still a name enough of a name out

773
00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:33,800
out in the West Coast. Like then, you know, this

774
00:39:33,679 --> 00:39:35,519
is a tough game. But if I'll tell you this

775
00:39:35,599 --> 00:39:38,440
right now, if UNLB has their full complement of players,

776
00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:41,679
they're very dangerous in this game. And if they win,

777
00:39:42,280 --> 00:39:44,519
that's a team I'll target in a later round. But

778
00:39:45,639 --> 00:39:48,039
I don't know if Pastor was trying to tell us like, yeah,

779
00:39:48,039 --> 00:39:50,960
I'm gonna lose my whole team. You know, like trying

780
00:39:50,960 --> 00:39:52,880
to read between the lines, you might have been like, hey,

781
00:39:52,960 --> 00:39:55,039
like I want to keep this team together, but I

782
00:39:55,119 --> 00:39:57,679
know that they're all going to bounce. So if that's

783
00:39:57,719 --> 00:40:00,519
the case and they show up in Irvine tonight with

784
00:40:00,920 --> 00:40:03,440
three starters out, then yeah, I think I think Garth

785
00:40:03,480 --> 00:40:06,480
probably has a good bet. That is why this tournament

786
00:40:06,519 --> 00:40:11,119
is very difficult. In the first couple of rounds, there's plenty.

787
00:40:11,280 --> 00:40:13,519
See here's the way it's gonna work. The first couple

788
00:40:13,559 --> 00:40:16,000
of rounds of the NCAA Tournament are your chance to

789
00:40:16,039 --> 00:40:19,159
probably make money in the NCAA Tournament, the n T

790
00:40:20,559 --> 00:40:22,119
You know, I think once you get one look at

791
00:40:22,159 --> 00:40:24,159
these teams, there's gonna be some numbers you can be

792
00:40:24,360 --> 00:40:27,920
over the weekend into the round of eight. So Rob,

793
00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:32,079
I'm gonna go back to an NCAA Tournament game because

794
00:40:32,119 --> 00:40:34,639
a couple of people wanted to want to talk about

795
00:40:34,639 --> 00:40:41,599
this game, and I've got opinions here just on this

796
00:40:41,679 --> 00:40:44,360
team and then on this matchup in general. So let's

797
00:40:44,400 --> 00:40:47,880
go to Arkansas, Hawaii. We talked about this for a

798
00:40:47,880 --> 00:40:51,559
minute the other day with Kelly, I kind of knee jerk.

799
00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:53,639
She put me on the spot and I said, well,

800
00:40:53,719 --> 00:40:56,719
the one non one seed that I think has a

801
00:40:56,840 --> 00:41:00,840
real opportunity to win this tournament is Arkansas. I would

802
00:41:00,880 --> 00:41:03,360
even go as far as to say sixty to one

803
00:41:03,719 --> 00:41:08,000
on an Arkansas future is a good bet for the price.

804
00:41:08,079 --> 00:41:10,760
You know, obviously gonna have some work to do, probably

805
00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:13,320
gonna have to beat multiple one seeds, but they're kind

806
00:41:13,320 --> 00:41:14,960
of the one team I think could do it, and

807
00:41:15,039 --> 00:41:18,639
Darius Acuff is an absolute stud it. Let's just straight

808
00:41:18,719 --> 00:41:22,159
up talk Arkansas Hawaii, though for right now I kind

809
00:41:22,159 --> 00:41:24,719
of think Arkansas blows them out. The people in the

810
00:41:24,800 --> 00:41:28,400
chat want to want your opinion on the team total,

811
00:41:28,880 --> 00:41:32,760
So Arkansas Hawaii, anything side or total related for you

812
00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:33,320
in this one.

813
00:41:34,760 --> 00:41:36,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, And we talked a little bit about this yesterday,

814
00:41:36,920 --> 00:41:39,199
and I remember asking you the question, you know, digging

815
00:41:39,239 --> 00:41:41,599
into this game, and first of all, that felt like

816
00:41:41,639 --> 00:41:46,079
you and I were on an island on Sunday because

817
00:41:46,320 --> 00:41:52,039
they were asking us about seeds who are number one

818
00:41:52,119 --> 00:41:55,280
seeds were, et cetera, et cetera. And I had said,

819
00:41:55,320 --> 00:41:57,480
you know, I think the number five team, if you're

820
00:41:57,480 --> 00:42:00,199
going in order, should be Arkansas. And it seems like

821
00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:01,960
none of the rest of the panel agreed with you

822
00:42:02,039 --> 00:42:05,880
and I on our strong opinion of Arkansas. But and

823
00:42:05,920 --> 00:42:10,400
it's not for you. It's definitely not formulated over the

824
00:42:10,440 --> 00:42:12,760
course of this past week. And it was formulated way

825
00:42:12,760 --> 00:42:15,840
back when you went to the Michigan State game. For me,

826
00:42:16,840 --> 00:42:22,320
I think the last ten games of the year, discounting

827
00:42:22,400 --> 00:42:26,639
the Florida absolute destruction, which Florida was just on a

828
00:42:26,719 --> 00:42:30,320
rampage at that point in time. But you know, in

829
00:42:30,360 --> 00:42:32,679
this tournament you want to win with guards. Here's where

830
00:42:32,679 --> 00:42:34,519
I'm going with this as far as team total, as

831
00:42:34,559 --> 00:42:38,000
I try to look it up. I asked yesterday because

832
00:42:38,000 --> 00:42:42,360
I'd read an article Hawaii plays zero help defense. They

833
00:42:42,400 --> 00:42:47,639
don't help on the ball. They would rather let the

834
00:42:48,320 --> 00:42:52,119
rather than leaving a guy open by doubling. They would

835
00:42:52,199 --> 00:42:56,679
rather trust their guy to be able to defend. And

836
00:42:56,719 --> 00:42:59,679
if a guy gets pett and that there's plenty of

837
00:42:59,679 --> 00:43:02,639
foot of this where a ballhandle, let's say acuff gets

838
00:43:02,679 --> 00:43:06,760
past his man, there's no help coming. They teach their

839
00:43:06,840 --> 00:43:09,800
kids to angle. If you get behind and you're trailing,

840
00:43:09,880 --> 00:43:12,159
they teach them to get their body on an angle

841
00:43:12,199 --> 00:43:14,000
so that you can block a shot from the side,

842
00:43:14,280 --> 00:43:17,559
et cetera. That being what it is, x's and o's

843
00:43:17,599 --> 00:43:20,800
and technical talk, man, I don't know if you want

844
00:43:20,840 --> 00:43:23,480
to play no help defense against Arkansas. I mean some

845
00:43:23,519 --> 00:43:26,239
of this stuff when you watch it in very slow motion,

846
00:43:26,320 --> 00:43:29,360
which we don't get to see during games, show you

847
00:43:29,559 --> 00:43:34,119
a wide open lane, and show you that mid range,

848
00:43:34,280 --> 00:43:38,480
which Arkansas is good at mid range, and then lob

849
00:43:38,559 --> 00:43:42,960
passes are wide open against this Hawaii defense. And to me,

850
00:43:44,000 --> 00:43:47,559
it's just a bad matchup for Hawaii defense. And then

851
00:43:47,599 --> 00:43:50,360
I ask myself, you know, well, and Hawaii is a

852
00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:55,039
veteran team, but it's a mixed match veteran team, like

853
00:43:55,039 --> 00:43:57,960
they got transfers from all over the place, junior college,

854
00:44:00,519 --> 00:44:05,039
D two, et cetera. Kudos to them for coming together

855
00:44:05,079 --> 00:44:06,480
the way they did, But I don't think they can

856
00:44:06,519 --> 00:44:09,239
score if they get behind. Adam, you always have to

857
00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:14,960
figure the if we're behind angle. It's nice to say

858
00:44:15,280 --> 00:44:18,079
Hawaii might be able to slow down the pace here.

859
00:44:18,800 --> 00:44:21,119
I don't think they can. Arkansas is going to dictate

860
00:44:21,159 --> 00:44:23,840
to them. But then I always ask myself to these

861
00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:26,840
people who say, oh, slower game, let's possessions. Bet the dog,

862
00:44:27,599 --> 00:44:29,400
I say to myself, but what if that dog is

863
00:44:29,440 --> 00:44:31,639
behind by twelve? What are they gonna do with their

864
00:44:31,679 --> 00:44:33,880
slow possessions. Now at some point you have to try

865
00:44:33,880 --> 00:44:36,679
and move and score and catch up, and in this case,

866
00:44:36,719 --> 00:44:39,880
I think the snowball effect happens. I don't know. And

867
00:44:39,960 --> 00:44:42,679
Hawaii was a really good team in conference this year.

868
00:44:43,679 --> 00:44:45,639
I just don't know that they match up well with

869
00:44:45,719 --> 00:44:49,559
this team. They needed a different opponent for me. I

870
00:44:49,599 --> 00:44:52,159
would like Arkansas in the game. We haven't. You know,

871
00:44:52,199 --> 00:44:54,599
the odds maker probably came out with a really good

872
00:44:54,679 --> 00:44:57,719
number here at them. They're being high enough to make

873
00:44:57,760 --> 00:45:01,360
you think twice team totally in instance is eighty seven

874
00:45:01,400 --> 00:45:03,440
and a half. That's even high enough to make you

875
00:45:03,519 --> 00:45:05,920
think twice? Can you get to eighty eight against this team?

876
00:45:06,679 --> 00:45:12,199
And coach Cal has been here so often that he

877
00:45:12,320 --> 00:45:17,119
kind of knows how to manage the Thursday, Saturday, Friday, Sunday,

878
00:45:17,119 --> 00:45:19,320
you know, the whole six game deal here. So I

879
00:45:19,320 --> 00:45:24,719
wouldn't be surprised if a Cuff and company end up,

880
00:45:24,880 --> 00:45:27,440
if they're winning by double digits, end up sitting the

881
00:45:27,480 --> 00:45:30,320
last three minutes, end up sitting the last four minutes

882
00:45:30,320 --> 00:45:32,360
because Cal knows how to manage his players for the

883
00:45:32,400 --> 00:45:36,000
game two days later, Like Arkansas, just don't know that

884
00:45:36,079 --> 00:45:37,920
I can get there at this price don't know that

885
00:45:37,960 --> 00:45:41,960
I can get there at that total price. But Hawaii

886
00:45:42,000 --> 00:45:44,239
I think has drawn a very very bad as bad

887
00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:46,239
a matchup as they could draw. I think they drew

888
00:45:46,320 --> 00:45:48,000
here against Arkansas.

889
00:45:49,159 --> 00:45:51,199
Speaker 1: Yeah, God says he likes the first half team total

890
00:45:51,280 --> 00:45:54,639
under on Hawaii thirty five and a half. Listen, I'm

891
00:45:54,639 --> 00:45:57,119
pretty much gonna be I'm with you, Rob. I think

892
00:45:57,119 --> 00:45:59,960
the books absolutely nailed the number here, fifteen and a half.

893
00:46:00,599 --> 00:46:02,760
That's I think I was at right around there, like

894
00:46:02,800 --> 00:46:04,559
fifteen point nine or something like that.

895
00:46:05,280 --> 00:46:07,239
Speaker 2: Had this been like eleven or twelve, I'd be all

896
00:46:07,280 --> 00:46:08,079
over Arkansas.

897
00:46:08,199 --> 00:46:10,239
Speaker 1: I still think if you forced an opinion out of me,

898
00:46:10,400 --> 00:46:12,639
I think they probably cover the fifteen and a half,

899
00:46:12,679 --> 00:46:14,000
and I'll get I'll go as far as to give

900
00:46:14,000 --> 00:46:18,199
you another bet that I really like my buddy CT

901
00:46:18,400 --> 00:46:22,880
Chris Thurston CT bets on Twitter. Emailed me or email.

902
00:46:23,199 --> 00:46:25,519
We don't communicate very I don't know why. I just

903
00:46:25,519 --> 00:46:29,480
said email. Rob texted me last night and was like, Hey,

904
00:46:29,599 --> 00:46:33,400
Arkansas roughly minus one forty to make the sweet sixteen?

905
00:46:33,440 --> 00:46:34,079
Speaker 2: Do you like that?

906
00:46:34,159 --> 00:46:36,480
Speaker 1: And I started to compute and calculate a little bit,

907
00:46:36,519 --> 00:46:39,159
and I was like, oh, I absolutely loved that that's

908
00:46:39,199 --> 00:46:41,440
a great bet, think he said. He ended up laying

909
00:46:41,480 --> 00:46:45,599
minus one forty five. I had that priced over two dollars.

910
00:46:46,000 --> 00:46:49,360
I don't think there's a chance that Arkansas loses this game.

911
00:46:49,760 --> 00:46:53,800
I know coach cal lost to Oakland, but like I did,

912
00:46:53,920 --> 00:46:55,719
I read some ride a little bit about that too, like, oh,

913
00:46:55,800 --> 00:46:58,360
maybe Hawaii will play his zone. It's like it would

914
00:46:58,400 --> 00:47:01,000
be a bad zone defense. Greg can't be all he

915
00:47:01,039 --> 00:47:04,159
does is play zone. That was like a moment that he.

916
00:47:04,320 --> 00:47:06,679
Speaker 2: Prepared for forty years for to beat Kentucky.

917
00:47:07,199 --> 00:47:09,800
Speaker 1: Just throwing Hawaii just throwing his zone out there that

918
00:47:09,800 --> 00:47:12,480
they've played only a handful of times this year. How's

919
00:47:12,519 --> 00:47:15,960
that gonna like? You really think that's gonna deter this

920
00:47:16,119 --> 00:47:16,840
Arkansas team?

921
00:47:16,880 --> 00:47:17,320
Speaker 2: I don't.

922
00:47:17,719 --> 00:47:20,440
Speaker 1: So I will likely like Arkansas in the next round

923
00:47:20,440 --> 00:47:23,440
as well. They might, like if high Point polls the upset,

924
00:47:23,440 --> 00:47:26,079
they're a huge favorite there. They're probably a four point

925
00:47:26,119 --> 00:47:28,920
favorite against Wisconsin. So I will give that bet for

926
00:47:28,960 --> 00:47:30,960
the show. It's not gonna be a client play, but

927
00:47:31,079 --> 00:47:34,119
Arkansas to make the Sweet sixteen at minus one forty five,

928
00:47:34,480 --> 00:47:36,880
I've got I've got that price at like closer to

929
00:47:36,920 --> 00:47:37,559
two dollars.

930
00:47:37,719 --> 00:47:39,480
Speaker 2: So that is a bet I like quite a bit.

931
00:47:41,559 --> 00:47:44,599
Speaker 3: I can understand it for sure. Their problem, their only

932
00:47:44,639 --> 00:47:47,599
problem in that bracket to me, is gonna be that

933
00:47:47,639 --> 00:47:49,559
they have to play Arizona, and I kind of like

934
00:47:49,599 --> 00:47:52,280
Arizona to win the whole thing. That Arkansas Arizona game,

935
00:47:53,159 --> 00:47:57,360
if it happens, will be really, really nice. Sorry, I

936
00:47:57,360 --> 00:48:00,559
couldn't give an opinion on that team total one way

937
00:48:00,679 --> 00:48:03,119
or the other. But I think again, if I had

938
00:48:03,119 --> 00:48:05,920
have seen eighty four and a half, very very identical

939
00:48:05,960 --> 00:48:07,800
to what you were saying about the point spread. If

940
00:48:07,840 --> 00:48:09,639
you'd have seen a twelve of you de been on Arkansas.

941
00:48:09,679 --> 00:48:11,079
If I'd have seen an eighty four and a half,

942
00:48:11,119 --> 00:48:14,320
I probably would have been on team total over asking

943
00:48:14,360 --> 00:48:15,440
for eighty eight is a lot.

944
00:48:17,199 --> 00:48:20,679
Speaker 1: All right, Rob, Let's bring it back to today. I'm

945
00:48:20,679 --> 00:48:22,840
gonna give you the floor. Let's go two team or

946
00:48:22,840 --> 00:48:24,320
today we've had we had good luck with the two

947
00:48:24,360 --> 00:48:27,360
teamers last week Parleigh of the day over the weekend

948
00:48:27,360 --> 00:48:29,800
we hit two of three. Akron fell a couple points

949
00:48:29,840 --> 00:48:32,800
short from making that a parlay winner for us. So

950
00:48:32,800 --> 00:48:35,719
why don't you lock in a parlay leg from tonight

951
00:48:36,280 --> 00:48:38,519
to go with mine earlier and then maybe we'll go

952
00:48:38,519 --> 00:48:40,559
to a different one more game before we're off.

953
00:48:42,000 --> 00:48:46,880
Speaker 3: So we talked about a matchup earlier George Mason Liberty,

954
00:48:48,039 --> 00:48:51,159
and the equivalent of that matchup out west is Seattle

955
00:48:51,159 --> 00:48:54,599
Saint Thomas. It's almost the same matchup, right, Seattle kind

956
00:48:54,599 --> 00:48:58,800
of equates the GM you Saint Thomas equates to Liberty.

957
00:49:00,000 --> 00:49:03,199
I just think that for me, Saint Thomas will have

958
00:49:03,840 --> 00:49:07,119
the motivation, not that Seattle won't there at home as well,

959
00:49:07,159 --> 00:49:09,440
but I think St. Thomas will have motivation to play

960
00:49:09,480 --> 00:49:12,880
well here. And I just don't know that until you

961
00:49:13,039 --> 00:49:16,719
get hit with the amount of three point shooting that

962
00:49:16,800 --> 00:49:20,800
Saint Thomas has, I don't know that you kind of

963
00:49:20,800 --> 00:49:23,880
know how to deal with it. And Seattle hasn't seen it.

964
00:49:24,119 --> 00:49:26,039
And I don't know that Seattle has seen it in

965
00:49:26,159 --> 00:49:29,559
conference either. Playing a very good conference play very good teams,

966
00:49:29,599 --> 00:49:34,400
I can honestly say that I don't believe Gonzaga lines

967
00:49:34,480 --> 00:49:36,480
up with the amount of three point shooting that Saint

968
00:49:36,559 --> 00:49:40,199
Thomas has, nor does Saint Mary's, nor does Santa Clara.

969
00:49:40,239 --> 00:49:44,079
They're all better teams, they just play different styles. I

970
00:49:44,199 --> 00:49:47,280
was a little bit reluctant Adam to take the points

971
00:49:47,599 --> 00:49:50,559
in this game, just because Seattle's going to be motivated

972
00:49:50,559 --> 00:49:52,800
to and they're a good defensive team, et cetera. But

973
00:49:52,880 --> 00:49:56,440
I like the Saint Thomas team total. I really feel

974
00:49:56,480 --> 00:49:59,079
like there's going to be a half here, and it

975
00:49:59,159 --> 00:50:01,320
may be the first half, and of course it could

976
00:50:01,360 --> 00:50:04,000
be the second half because Sat. Saint Thomas is going

977
00:50:04,039 --> 00:50:06,599
to have to adjust to the rims in this gym.

978
00:50:07,599 --> 00:50:11,440
But you're asking a team to have four guys basically

979
00:50:11,519 --> 00:50:14,920
go cold all at once in one night. I just

980
00:50:14,960 --> 00:50:17,920
don't see that happening. The number here because the total

981
00:50:18,039 --> 00:50:22,119
was low for Saint Thomas, I believe was seventy one

982
00:50:22,159 --> 00:50:23,880
and a half. For seventy two and a half. Let

983
00:50:23,920 --> 00:50:26,880
me just get it right for the for the viewers

984
00:50:26,880 --> 00:50:30,639
here so we can lock this play in. I'm staring

985
00:50:30,679 --> 00:50:35,679
at Saint Thomas team total over what's currently seventy two

986
00:50:35,719 --> 00:50:39,159
and a half pointed toward the under, so you can

987
00:50:39,239 --> 00:50:42,440
probably take this point down and get even money. Probably

988
00:50:42,559 --> 00:50:44,679
at seventy one and a half, you could probably lay

989
00:50:44,760 --> 00:50:48,440
very little juice, which may be a better way to

990
00:50:48,480 --> 00:50:50,800
go here. But I think St. Thomas can find their

991
00:50:50,800 --> 00:50:53,599
way to seventy three against Seattle. I honestly do. I

992
00:50:53,599 --> 00:50:57,239
think there's enough shooting on this team. Their offensive explosiveness

993
00:50:57,320 --> 00:51:01,280
has been on display all sea and long. The counter

994
00:51:01,519 --> 00:51:04,519
argument to this play is, you know what, Rob, there's

995
00:51:04,559 --> 00:51:07,159
going to be few possessions in this game. Seattle doesn't

996
00:51:07,199 --> 00:51:09,960
want to go. St. Thomas doesn't want to go. But

997
00:51:10,000 --> 00:51:12,280
I always come back with the same argument to people

998
00:51:12,280 --> 00:51:14,880
who tell me that, Adam, is that if you're extremely

999
00:51:14,920 --> 00:51:18,119
efficient offensively, I don't care how slow you go. If

1000
00:51:18,119 --> 00:51:20,880
you're scoring one point one, one point two every time

1001
00:51:20,920 --> 00:51:24,719
down the floor per possession, who cares how slow you go.

1002
00:51:24,760 --> 00:51:27,559
You're going to get to where you need to get to. Here,

1003
00:51:27,639 --> 00:51:31,400
it's not a heck of a lot. I never handicapped

1004
00:51:31,400 --> 00:51:34,760
this in but in games like this that are lined

1005
00:51:34,800 --> 00:51:38,719
at you know three or less, overtime is always a

1006
00:51:38,840 --> 00:51:41,639
chance for you. It's a small percentage chance, but you

1007
00:51:42,119 --> 00:51:44,920
have overtime to help out. So for me, it's going

1008
00:51:45,000 --> 00:51:49,239
to be Saint Thomas team total over seventy two and

1009
00:51:49,320 --> 00:51:52,119
a half. And I can advise guys, if you want

1010
00:51:52,159 --> 00:51:55,039
to like I say this, at seventy two and a half,

1011
00:51:55,079 --> 00:51:59,119
the over is like minus o five and in some

1012
00:51:59,320 --> 00:52:03,000
cases a dollar you can get down to seventy one

1013
00:52:03,039 --> 00:52:07,840
and a half. In late fifteen cents twenty cents. I

1014
00:52:08,039 --> 00:52:10,440
could recommend that option as well, but we're for purpose

1015
00:52:10,519 --> 00:52:11,880
of the show, we're going to go seventy two and

1016
00:52:11,920 --> 00:52:15,119
a half under minus one fifteen.

1017
00:52:17,800 --> 00:52:20,199
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, that's that's a game I'm very interested

1018
00:52:20,719 --> 00:52:21,480
to watch.

1019
00:52:21,519 --> 00:52:22,599
Speaker 2: We'll be rooting for your over.

1020
00:52:22,639 --> 00:52:24,079
Speaker 1: I don't know if we'll have a side play there

1021
00:52:24,119 --> 00:52:27,280
because quite frankly, I see merit to both teams. It's

1022
00:52:27,320 --> 00:52:29,159
going to be at the Red Hawk Arena, so it's

1023
00:52:29,159 --> 00:52:31,079
going to be in the small on campus facility, not

1024
00:52:31,199 --> 00:52:34,239
down a Climate Pledge, as far as I know, may

1025
00:52:34,400 --> 00:52:36,239
may give them a little bit more of a home

1026
00:52:36,280 --> 00:52:38,719
court edge for that game because that building is very small.

1027
00:52:38,760 --> 00:52:43,079
They've they've pretty much Seattle's pretty much gone the Villanova

1028
00:52:43,760 --> 00:52:46,360
Yukon route, where they're like playing half of their games

1029
00:52:46,400 --> 00:52:49,159
at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle and the other half

1030
00:52:49,159 --> 00:52:51,920
in the very tiny red Hawk Center on campus. So

1031
00:52:51,960 --> 00:52:56,519
this one is is Red Hawk Center. But I really

1032
00:52:56,599 --> 00:52:58,760
like that Saint Thomas team too, rob So, like I'm

1033
00:52:58,800 --> 00:53:01,079
not really dying the lay point against them.

1034
00:53:01,079 --> 00:53:02,880
Speaker 2: Gonna be a great watch and we'll be rooting for

1035
00:53:02,960 --> 00:53:03,400
your over.

1036
00:53:03,800 --> 00:53:06,159
Speaker 1: So rather than sort of ramble on that game where

1037
00:53:06,159 --> 00:53:07,960
I don't have as much of an opinion, I will

1038
00:53:08,280 --> 00:53:10,840
throw one more game out there from the nit that

1039
00:53:10,920 --> 00:53:12,639
I do have an opinion on, and I'm sure you

1040
00:53:12,679 --> 00:53:17,000
are going to as well. So Auburn is playing in

1041
00:53:17,039 --> 00:53:20,679
this tournament. Props to Auburn. They they could have just

1042
00:53:20,719 --> 00:53:22,559
declined it, and no, you know, it would have been

1043
00:53:22,559 --> 00:53:25,920
the thing to do. But I think that's a really

1044
00:53:25,960 --> 00:53:29,559
good move by Bruce, by Steven Pearl to like maybe

1045
00:53:29,559 --> 00:53:32,599
build up some goodwill in the basketball community and like,

1046
00:53:32,960 --> 00:53:35,679
you know, kind of almost show like okay, like no,

1047
00:53:35,800 --> 00:53:39,960
we you know, we'll let's go prove that we got snubbed, right,

1048
00:53:40,199 --> 00:53:42,800
we can go out. We Theoretically, Auburn should win this tournament.

1049
00:53:43,000 --> 00:53:46,639
If they care, they should win this tournament. AM forty

1050
00:53:46,679 --> 00:53:50,079
one here, let me pull this up, he says, Auburn

1051
00:53:50,079 --> 00:53:51,079
minus seventeen and a half.

1052
00:53:51,079 --> 00:53:52,639
Speaker 2: This line should be Auburn minus twenty.

1053
00:53:52,639 --> 00:53:55,719
Speaker 1: Happy to lay it, I'd be a little I don't

1054
00:53:55,760 --> 00:53:58,159
know if i'd lay twenty. Honestly, I thought this line

1055
00:53:58,199 --> 00:54:00,800
was way too big. And I'm kicking myself for missing

1056
00:54:00,800 --> 00:54:03,400
that opener of nineteen and a half because if you

1057
00:54:03,440 --> 00:54:06,519
remember Rob last year, Richie Riley threw a fit when

1058
00:54:06,519 --> 00:54:09,440
they were invited to the NIT and then told that

1059
00:54:09,480 --> 00:54:12,760
they invited too many teams and that they couldn't come. Oh,

1060
00:54:12,840 --> 00:54:15,280
South Alabama got left out of the NIT and he

1061
00:54:15,880 --> 00:54:19,159
was hot at that happening because they really wanted to play.

1062
00:54:19,880 --> 00:54:23,559
Now they get there this year, I think this kind

1063
00:54:23,559 --> 00:54:25,719
of feels like a reward to them, Like they get

1064
00:54:25,760 --> 00:54:29,079
to go and play at Auburn, Like that's gonna be

1065
00:54:29,079 --> 00:54:32,480
a big deal for another, you know, in state team

1066
00:54:32,960 --> 00:54:35,480
right there, and at worst, at least you know, with

1067
00:54:35,599 --> 00:54:38,079
Richie Riley, you know you're gonna get that zone and

1068
00:54:38,119 --> 00:54:40,079
Auburn's probably gonna have to sort of light it up

1069
00:54:40,079 --> 00:54:43,000
to cover that number. So I actually leaned the plus

1070
00:54:43,039 --> 00:54:44,719
seventeen and a half. I'm mad that I missed the

1071
00:54:44,760 --> 00:54:47,400
number in that one. I think the dog is live

1072
00:54:47,440 --> 00:54:49,639
to hang around there. What do you think South Alabama,

1073
00:54:49,920 --> 00:54:52,159
Auburn anything on the total in that one as well?

1074
00:54:53,159 --> 00:54:56,119
Speaker 3: Well. I'll say first and foremost that this is a real,

1075
00:54:57,079 --> 00:55:02,519
real moment for even Perl because if his players walk

1076
00:55:02,559 --> 00:55:04,320
out on the floor and don't care and win this

1077
00:55:04,400 --> 00:55:07,280
game by three or lose this game straight up or whatever,

1078
00:55:07,840 --> 00:55:10,199
that's not good. Coach is trying to build something here

1079
00:55:10,239 --> 00:55:12,119
and if his players don't care about being here, that

1080
00:55:12,239 --> 00:55:14,480
he didn't do his job. So we'll see he should

1081
00:55:14,559 --> 00:55:19,960
have him motivated. South Alabama motivation obvious in this case. Again,

1082
00:55:21,000 --> 00:55:23,360
you talked about being snubbed last year, but just the

1083
00:55:23,519 --> 00:55:28,199
in state, little brother type of deal complex that they'll

1084
00:55:28,199 --> 00:55:33,039
have is huge in that game. Total wise, Auburn has

1085
00:55:33,119 --> 00:55:36,559
not been good defensively all season long. South Alabama does

1086
00:55:36,599 --> 00:55:40,159
have capability to score. This game to me, is underpriced

1087
00:55:40,840 --> 00:55:46,920
total wise, Why Auburn, excuse me, if motivated, why they

1088
00:55:46,960 --> 00:55:49,599
wouldn't get to eighty plus at home is beyond me.

1089
00:55:50,239 --> 00:55:53,000
I think they're more than apt to give up over

1090
00:55:53,159 --> 00:55:56,480
seventy to the other side closer to seventy five. So

1091
00:55:56,559 --> 00:55:59,599
to me, I thought that total was underpriced. Don't know

1092
00:55:59,639 --> 00:56:03,000
if i'd either team total, I'd rather not exclude either one.

1093
00:56:03,440 --> 00:56:07,880
But again, it's a lot of you know, it's understandable,

1094
00:56:08,119 --> 00:56:10,159
and I want to go back really quick to your

1095
00:56:10,199 --> 00:56:14,519
first point about kudos to Auburn for playing here. It's understandable.

1096
00:56:14,679 --> 00:56:17,960
I've read off the list of teams that didn't understandable.

1097
00:56:17,960 --> 00:56:21,400
Why Belmont didn't, Casey Alexander flew the coop. Okay, we're

1098
00:56:21,440 --> 00:56:25,599
in disarray. We can't really play. But you know, another

1099
00:56:25,760 --> 00:56:28,360
SEC team like Oklahoma, who I really wanted to see

1100
00:56:28,360 --> 00:56:31,239
in the NCAA tournament field at which Porter Moser had

1101
00:56:31,519 --> 00:56:32,719
chosen to play.

1102
00:56:32,719 --> 00:56:35,000
Speaker 2: I think I think they went to the Crown instead.

1103
00:56:35,239 --> 00:56:36,880
So they are playing, Oh did they Okay?

1104
00:56:37,119 --> 00:56:39,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, good, And they're gonna let us bet on

1105
00:56:39,719 --> 00:56:40,400
the crown this year.

1106
00:56:40,599 --> 00:56:41,880
Speaker 2: They're gonna let us bet on the Crown.

1107
00:56:41,960 --> 00:56:46,559
Speaker 3: Yeah, Virginia Tech seat in Hall, Indiana. Consider it down line,

1108
00:56:46,719 --> 00:56:49,760
So kudos just to reinforce your point to Auburn for

1109
00:56:50,360 --> 00:56:52,679
showing up and playing in this tournament. Well, see if

1110
00:56:52,679 --> 00:56:54,960
Stephen pro can motivate and if these guys are ready

1111
00:56:55,000 --> 00:56:55,159
to go.

1112
00:56:57,159 --> 00:57:00,000
Speaker 1: Yeah I was. My number was much closer to way

1113
00:57:00,000 --> 00:57:02,159
where the line is now. I was at like sixteen

1114
00:57:02,199 --> 00:57:05,440
point four. And again I'm just kind of you know,

1115
00:57:05,480 --> 00:57:08,480
those numbers came out nit like a little bit later

1116
00:57:08,840 --> 00:57:12,400
later on in the day yesterday, and I wasn't really

1117
00:57:12,480 --> 00:57:14,639
dying to lock anything in yet, just because you want

1118
00:57:14,679 --> 00:57:17,239
to try to, you know, scour for info, make sure

1119
00:57:17,239 --> 00:57:20,079
that you've got a team full of guys playing. But yeah,

1120
00:57:20,079 --> 00:57:23,280
I'm kicking myself if Auburn takes money, then that goes

1121
00:57:23,320 --> 00:57:26,360
back to like nineteen you may see me jumping with

1122
00:57:26,400 --> 00:57:28,639
the dog, and I just go back to last year

1123
00:57:28,920 --> 00:57:32,400
and how disappointed that Richie Riley was when his team

1124
00:57:32,559 --> 00:57:35,840
was included in the NIT and then basically had their

1125
00:57:35,880 --> 00:57:39,440
bid taken away and he was just like came right out,

1126
00:57:39,559 --> 00:57:42,920
was like this is like like these players are crushed,

1127
00:57:42,960 --> 00:57:46,360
like they wanted to play in that tournament, and so yeah,

1128
00:57:46,440 --> 00:57:48,800
I kind of almost think that they'll how could you

1129
00:57:48,880 --> 00:57:51,440
not be fired up for this game if you're South Alabama,

1130
00:57:51,639 --> 00:57:53,400
Like you know, you had to get through the Sun

1131
00:57:53,440 --> 00:57:56,000
Belt Gauntlet to go to the NCAA tournament and that

1132
00:57:56,039 --> 00:57:58,199
was always going to be really tough, and now you're

1133
00:57:58,199 --> 00:58:01,360
getting to go on the road and play your SEC

1134
00:58:01,559 --> 00:58:03,960
in state foe in this game.

1135
00:58:04,079 --> 00:58:05,320
Speaker 2: That that to me is like.

1136
00:58:06,800 --> 00:58:09,239
Speaker 1: I'll be shocked if you don't get South Alabama's best

1137
00:58:09,239 --> 00:58:11,719
effort here. And even if Auburn comes to play, like

1138
00:58:11,960 --> 00:58:14,480
what's to say they're just going to totally torch that zone,

1139
00:58:14,480 --> 00:58:17,599
which is is always organized, Like Auburn could win in

1140
00:58:17,639 --> 00:58:20,599
a blowout, win this by fourteen and you still cover easily.

1141
00:58:20,719 --> 00:58:24,280
So yeah, I like the Jaguars South Alabama on the

1142
00:58:24,360 --> 00:58:24,880
road tonight.

1143
00:58:26,280 --> 00:58:28,360
Speaker 3: Let me backtrack to a point we make of because

1144
00:58:28,400 --> 00:58:31,599
if you were talking, my screen just lit up across

1145
00:58:31,639 --> 00:58:36,480
the board universally with Howard, Maryland Baltimore County being up

1146
00:58:36,519 --> 00:58:39,760
two points from one forty and a half in some

1147
00:58:39,840 --> 00:58:41,960
cases to one forty two and a half. Where the

1148
00:58:42,039 --> 00:58:45,360
total is concerns from thankful for playing yesterday at thirty

1149
00:58:45,440 --> 00:58:47,320
nine and a half, but it looks like heavy money

1150
00:58:47,440 --> 00:58:51,639
just piled in on over in the Howard UNBC game.

1151
00:58:53,239 --> 00:58:55,239
Speaker 2: They watched the show that's all I can. That's all

1152
00:58:55,360 --> 00:58:57,480
that's only only explanation for that.

1153
00:58:58,320 --> 00:59:01,519
Speaker 1: They waited for the Robbino stamp of approval, and they

1154
00:59:01,519 --> 00:59:04,199
went and bet the old That's what I think. Great there,

1155
00:59:05,400 --> 00:59:07,880
all right, So I'm gonna give out one of my

1156
00:59:07,920 --> 00:59:10,400
plays for tonight. It's the only thing I've bet so far.

1157
00:59:10,599 --> 00:59:12,719
It's a four percent client play for me, I am

1158
00:59:12,719 --> 00:59:16,960
on the UNBC Retrievers minus one ten and for rob Bino,

1159
00:59:17,000 --> 00:59:20,519
the other leg of our two team or today Saint

1160
00:59:20,639 --> 00:59:26,039
Thomas team total over seventy two and a half. Maybe

1161
00:59:26,039 --> 00:59:28,599
we'll get crazier later in the week, but we rattled

1162
00:59:28,639 --> 00:59:31,119
off a couple of two team winners yes last week,

1163
00:59:31,159 --> 00:59:32,519
so I feel like we got to kind of stick

1164
00:59:32,559 --> 00:59:35,800
there for now. So one more time, two team parlay

1165
00:59:35,880 --> 00:59:39,000
for the show UNBC minus one ten. That's a client

1166
00:59:39,000 --> 00:59:42,559
play for me and Saint Thomas. Team total over seventy

1167
00:59:42,599 --> 00:59:46,039
two and a half. Same show tomorrow, ten am. We'll

1168
00:59:46,039 --> 00:59:49,119
look at the first four games for tomorrow. We'll try

1169
00:59:49,159 --> 00:59:50,559
to get to the n IT games and if you

1170
00:59:50,599 --> 00:59:54,079
guys insist on a tournament game for Thursday or Friday,

1171
00:59:54,199 --> 00:59:57,079
we'll go there as well. Very much appreciate you guys

1172
00:59:57,079 --> 00:59:59,480
tuning in today and every day and the whole season.

1173
01:00:00,199 --> 01:00:01,840
Have a great March and bring this home and we'll

1174
01:00:01,880 --> 01:00:03,360
see you guys in the morning.