Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. It is Tuesday. It's time for
full court Press. It's five dollars Tuesday at Wager Talk,
like it is every Tuesday. I've got a five dollars
play up for the NCAA Tournament. I'm sure my co
host Rob Bino will have at least one five dollars
play up as well.
Speaker 2: Rob.
Speaker 1: There's nothing to recap because we didn't have any games yesterday.
But what I will say, because we did a show
and then you and I did a show on Sunday
with Steve Merrill, Kelly Stewart and Brian Power, when we
sort of got our first well we got we literally
watched the bracket in real time. I still I haven't
got the fine from swearing on air when Sian and
drew the sixteen seed yet, although I think that might
be coming. But the point I'm trying to make is
like we're two days removed from now seeing these matchups,
getting to break them down for me, Like I found
myself sort of like backtracking on a couple opinions, but
now I have like a far clearer view of what
I want to do.
Speaker 2: I've got five plays locked.
Speaker 1: In right now for NCAA tournament games that I feel
great about.
Speaker 2: Where are you at now as opposed to where we
were at when we.
Speaker 1: Saw those those.
Speaker 2: Pairings come out on Sunday night, I.
Speaker 3: Think a little bit clearer. There's certain games that we
never really got to on Sunday, believe it or not.
In two hours we talked about we covered a whole
lot of ground, but there's so much territory to cover
that I started going through some stuff that we didn't
even talk about and find myself landing there. I currently
have three plays up and available. One, however, is an
n I play. The five dollars play has been up
since last night and does involve the NCAA tournament. So yeah,
and now to go back to what you said originally
being on something strong, I think we talked about this
a little bit yesterday, being on something strong immediately and
maybe hedging off or doubling down, whatever the case may be.
There's a couple of plays there that and I mean,
let's face it, the Aiden Holloway arrest didn't hurt Hofstra's
cause yesterday whatsoever obviously factored into the new number. But
I think I'm probably fifty to fifty half the time
I'm in the same place I was Sunday, and fifty
percent of the time I'm like, well, you know what
you might have overreacted to that one slowed down, pumped
the brakes, and let's rethink this. So it's an interesting process, Adam.
And the thing is we get four days basically to
you know, sometimes oversaturate ourselves with information. Sometimes first reaction
is great. Sometimes digging in deeper is great. It's it's
such a inexact science. But I'd like where I'm at
right now, I think we see things a little bit
clearer than we did Sunday.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so you know, this is the Tuesday show, which
means we're we've got two games to talk about. We
have eight nit pairings we can talk about. If someone
insists that we go to a tournament game, we'll probably do.
Speaker 2: That as well.
Speaker 1: We as you guys know, on this show, we play
off the chat. Wherever the chat wants to go and
wants to talk about, that's where we go. But we
always start with the feature game. And I think this
is a great example, Rob of one of those pairings
that like, when it came out, I was looking one way.
Speaker 2: Now I'm starting to gravitate towards the other side.
Speaker 1: And actually, as we come on air here, I think
I have a stronger opinion on the total in this one,
which is rare for me.
Speaker 2: So let's start first four.
Speaker 1: Dayton Ohio, NC State taking on Texas, And when these
came out, I thought I thought I would like I
kind of instantly my knee jerk reaction was like, oh, like,
I'll like, I'll like Texas there, because I've liked this
Texas team for the past couple months. I've then you
know how it is when you sort of like are
ahead of the curve on a team, and I think, like,
I feel like I was a little bit ahead of
the curve on Texas really starting to play well during
conference play. So knee jerk reaction, I sort of leaned
their way. But then I thought back and said, you know,
said to myself, hey, like you were on NC State
in the first meeting between these two teams, which occurred
this year out in Maui, And you know, going back
to that game, NC State got a lot of easy baskets,
crushed Texas at the rim, and Texas went nuts from
three And you know, I look at those Maui scores,
Rob and Obviously we joke about the Rims in Maui
being super friendly.
Speaker 2: Texas hit sixteen threes.
Speaker 1: We talked about NC State's defense at that time a
disaster Seaton Hall lit them up the day before that
game in Maui. So NC State has kind of even
though they maybe weren't the team that we thought Will
Wade might have in his first year. I don't think
they've necessarily been bad. I've also think they've cleaned up
some of those issues. But when I look at the
way these two teams match up, it's hard not to
see points again here. So I leaned toward the over.
But talk to me if you like that, and if
you've got a clear vision as to which side is
the right way to go in this game.
Speaker 3: Well I will agree in the respect that I can't
understand why people would play under in this game and
they have one sixty two down to one fifty seven
and a half kind of makes no sense other than
in a again tournament game winner go home. All those
old adages that make you kind of believe defensive intensity
will be there. One thing that does that I would
put you know, I always have a little list here,
Adam assets and liabilities to these games, and you know,
because there's always two sides to everything, there's never a
clean handicap where every arrow is in your direction, and
if there is, it's it's a rarity. But the fact
that they did have the early season meeting kind of
stops me a little bit, thinking, well, will Wade can
go to game tape, Sean Miller can go to game
tape and we can see exactly maybe if there's ways,
maybe we can read some of their offensive sets now,
maybe we know what they're trying to do. The problem
with that is is that both of these guys were
first year head coaches implementing brand new systems, and that
game was so long ago back at Thanksgiving time to
where we are now that they've evolved from where they were.
I don't know how useful that game tape is to
tell you the truth, Adam, Because when you're a first
year head coach doing things differently, and you're in like
your third game of the year or fourth game of
the year, you're doing things one way and you constantly
evolved to try and get used to your personnel. A
lot of this personnel was brought in new personnel, so
the whole thing was brand new, and now they're in
different stages. I don't know if that's useful. So to
me it became look at the components of both sides here.
As an NC State has been offensive oriented from the
get go. I said it yesterday. Will Wade has said it.
That's why I repeat it that he just hasn't really
been satisfied with the physical nature of this team or
lack the of Texas. We talked about titis yesterday, how
inside he probably can get his but these guard matchups,
I do have a problem seeing NC State's guards. We
talked a lot about Copeland yesterday, his tendency to go
one on one, but he is a playmaker, and I
do think that Texas has problems stopping him from doing
the same today. NC State can catch fire from three
as well as anybody. They've got multiple guys that can
shoot it. I think they either one or two inside
the league in three point shooting this year. Maybe a
little too reliant on it, I'm not sure. To my surprise,
Sean Miller was I don't know why I would say surprise,
really I should. Maybe that's more Archie than Sean, But
to me, Sean Miller was more willing to get up
and down the floor. In the SEC he saw far
better opposition than what NC State saw this year. So
I kind of give a small, slight nod there. I
would agree with you that if I were to make
a play on this game, maybe the number has been
pushed down far enough where it's easily time to push
back on one fifty seven and a half. You're asking
for seventy nine aside from these two teams and the
defenses that they show us. Again, if I thought the
game film from game one would be relevant, I think differently.
But I think you did that tape. I don't know,
maybe you think differently. I don't know what that's worth
at this point in time.
Speaker 2: Well, here's the thing.
Speaker 1: Like you look at the Maui game, you look at
the score, and I think it's easy for us to say, Okay,
well that's the Maui. There's there's always high score game,
scoring games there. The rims are soft, there's it's it's
not odd to see teams and you know, scoring the hundreds.
But like the NC State's defense has been terrible. You know,
that's that's my concern that you know I did. I
pulled up in the the NC State zip up. Rob
I got this the DJ Burn year when no one
gave them a chance. That year they went all the
way to the final four. Obviously totally different coach to
a different thing. A lot of luck right there. But
like the point is, you know, NC State has in
my like, they haven't been good defensively, so Texas theoretically
should score their points.
Speaker 2: But like, and this is just a I'm just just.
Speaker 1: A gut feel, Darien Williams is so due to have
a big game, like you know what I mean, Like
he was. I went back to the first meeting and
now I remember vividly the outcome of that. Texas NC
State get you into the first game, Darren Williams didn't
play well.
Speaker 2: NC State was right there the whole time.
Speaker 1: But the threes were wide open, so you can say, oh,
now he soft rims whatever. Like you know, teams can
score in that gym, but like Texas, it was just
wide open three after wide open three, and even with that,
NC State was still right there at the end of
that game. And you know, and so yeah, like the
fact that Wade can go and point that out and say, hey,
maybe if we don't let them shoot twenty five to
thirty three's that are wide open, what we probably win
that game. That that's encouraging to the NC State State
side in my opinion. So I can't imagine I'll end
up on a side in this game because I've started
to swing my opinion toward NC State, but I don't
think I'm going to like play back against my sort
of initial read on the game. So that's kind of
had me graduated gravitating toward the over because I still
think NC State's defense is a mess. I think Texas
is going to be able to score. They might, you know,
if Vocatitis stays out of foul trouble, Texas will have
a great chance to win and put up points. But
on the other side, like NC State can score right
along with them, and you know, maybe that maybe this
this stage is what Darian Williams needs to have a
big game because he did not play well in the
ACC tournament and he really has been I mean, he
leads the team in scoring rob but has he's been
kind of disappointment to me this year. So who knows,
Maybe this is the stage he needs to get going.
Speaker 3: And I'll give you just really quick here, Adam First, off.
Let me just say that Texas has not closed the
season with a band. They have lost like five of seven.
So Texas comes in a little bit limping, and sometimes
it's good to have a break, the day off, a
couple of days off. But I'm gonna give you a
couple of quotes that are not inspiring from your point
defensively in the point I tried to make about their
lack of physicality, but Will Wade Is added again a
couple of things. He said, now it's our time to
see if we can do something with this opportunity more
than what we've done during the regular season. We've got
to clean up the details and the discipline that go
with that, and that's going to be a challenge to
do that quickly before Tuesday. I don't know that the
guy has any faith that they're going to reverse their
stripes in this particular game. Therefore, the way to victory,
the path to victory is to outscore Texas, which they're
more than capable of doing. I think we're both saying
the same thing here as far as their scoring ability
is concerned. But man, in Texas, the you know, the
uncommon denominator is they have a post game and the
other side doesn't and maybe Texas does get through. Sean
Miller kind of coming up with the same soft quotes
that Will Wade had. You know, we lost to two
teams that didn't make the tournament coming in Oklahoma and Mississippi.
But we've had a couple of days to rethink to
get ready. So I just don't have a lot of
faith either side is going to be good defensively here
one fifty seven and a half. Like I said to
start this a little bit head scratching that there would
be so much money toward the under in this game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's if I was going to play this game tonight,
it would be the over, and I would just push
back at that market move. You're getting five points better
than the open right now, and two teams that have
not just haven't been prolific defensively. I know it kind
of too easy, but I think that that move is
probably based on someone deciding man one sixty two is
awfully high, Okay, I'll take five points better to bet
a total, right, Like I mean, I think I think
long term if you think like that, and you always
talk about that on this show, where it's like, can
I make a case to oppose a five point move
because like that, that is probably like a plus ev
bet right there if you do that on like a
regular basis. So looks like it's got down to one
fifty seven. I see a couple of books have ticked
back up to one fifty eight and a half.
Speaker 2: But yeah, I could get down with an over in
this game.
Speaker 1: All right, Rob Let's I'm gonna go to Garth. Here, Garth,
We're gonna stay on your game for today. Maybe maybe
we'll circle back to the to that NCAA tournament game,
but I'm gonna focus on your game for tonight.
Speaker 2: I will.
Speaker 1: I'll give this one out because you know, I think
I'm gonna sell an n T play today, and my
five dollars play that is up on my page is
for an NCAA tournament game.
Speaker 2: So I will.
Speaker 1: My leg of the parlay rob is going to be
UNBC on the money line. I played it earlier this
morning when it got down to pick and minus won
ten most places. I wonder if any of that had
to do with a tweet from the UNBC twitter account
that's been very, very active the last couple of days,
where they were like stuck on the tarmac waiting to
waiting to leave and get out to Dayton. Do I
think that matters at all? No, not really. I mean
I don't think it's whatever. I'm sure a lot of
these teams experience like flight delays or whatnot, not all
of them tweet about it, So I don't think that
really makes a big deal at all. Where I think
this game is won for UNBC, ROB is that trio
of guards Ace Valentine, DJ Armstrong, King, who has been
I'm not even gonna try to say his first name.
It's like Jacari with a apostrophe. So anyway, the trio
of guards for UNBC veteran, They've been awesome all year.
I noted this year a couple times that the America
East was quite a bit down from what it's been
in years past, maybe the worst the conference has ever been.
But UNBC absolutely dominated down like you know, the final
five five weeks of the regular season, destroyed Vermont twice
in that span, who obviously sort of runs the show
in this league, and the MIAC, in my opinion, was
the worst rated. They should have been the worst rated
league in college basketball. So you get UNBC and Howard here.
I just I think UNBC is the better team, and
I trust their guards to like sort of handle this
game enough where they're not getting into just like a
sloppy type game that Howard can win with their physicality
and size.
Speaker 2: So if that trio of guards does what I.
Speaker 1: Think they can do here, control the game, make plays,
I don't think UNBC loses. So that's gonna be my
leg at parlay. Talk to me about UNBC, Howard though,
if you agree, disagree. And also this is another total
that that's come down a little bit from the open,
not quite as much as the other game.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I played it yesterday Adam, and I got the
better of the number one thirty nine and a half.
I've played it over late in the day for reasons
that we discussed here yesterday. I just feel like, where
UNBC is concerned, you play in an America East conference
that is filled with pedestrianto let's say, less than pedestrian
type pace teams. Just about everybody in that league is slow.
They don't want to go up and down. Howard plays
with pace. I think their tempo ranking adjusted tempo was
inside the top ninety in the country. So for me, UNBC,
who I think You've mentioned the guard trio, who I
believe is more than happy to get into a little
more of an up and down offensively. They'll appreciate that,
and I think Howard will come back at them the
same And for that reason and UNBC playing slow to
even slower paced teams, I think their defensive numbers are
somewhat skewed. This was like the key point I have. Yes,
I think both sides have defensive numbers that are somewhat
skewed because of league competition. Miak, I think you just
said it. They're ranked. I think they were ranked as
the worst conference in Ken Palm ratings, rightfully so. But
Howard has gone through a season where they haven't had
to play any real threats. UNBC is a legitimate offensive threat,
so I think that that lends itself to UNBC scoring points.
And on the other side of the coin, I feel
like unbc's defensive numbers are somewhat based on the fact
that they were good defensively, but somewhat based on the
fact that they're just low possession games and when you
play in these games that are sixty three sixty two
possession games. Of course, if you're any good defensively, you're
gonna hold your opponent down scoreboard wise. Howard's not going
to play like that. Howard is capable, and I think
you even said this yesterday. Howard is more than capable
of putting the ball in the basket. And to me,
I just thought that again, the total was predicated on
season long numbers, which are basically dominated by conference play
numbers because you play eighteen twenty conference games, so obviously
they're going to be the heavier part of the overalls.
And I thought one thirty nine and a half was
too low. We have seen the bump back to one
forty and a half. Glad I got in when I did,
but I do like it over I just think that
these two teams probably will find each other's styles to
their liking, at least from an offensive perspective, and we
can get ourselves in some way, shape or form to
a seventy one to seventy game, or in my case,
get the seventy seventy and we cover the number here.
That's the way I feel. I feel like this one's
going to get up and over.
Speaker 1: Yeah, So I want to go out like last year.
Last year's UNBC team played this Howard team, and even
though it wasn't the exact same roster like it was
it was, this team was still made up very similar
Last year. They had Marcus Banks, who's who's now at
UMass had a great season. Want josh Old od Wonoh,
I think it's his name is still there. Obviously Ace
Valentine's still there. But the two guards they've brought in,
like UNBC really hasn't skipped a beat. If anything, They've
been able to sort of build on last season to
be better this year. And the only reason I bring
up last year is they played this game back in November,
and you know, UNBC dropped ninety five in that game,
won ninety five to seventy seven. So I do think
that even though that was last year's team, I think
the team still kind of match up similar in terms
of the way that they're structured and the way that
they play, and UNBC was able to put up ninety
five and totally blow that game up. Been not saying
it's gonna be you know that. I'm not saying that's
what's gonna happen here. But I still think you give
me that trio of guards, where like you said, they
probably that We've seen UNBC go up and down with teams,
especially in the non conference when they when they get
teams that will play that pace. Those three are just
veterans that I trust to win a game, whereas Howard,
I think Howard really needs to turn this into a
slugfest to win this game. And I just I don't
know that UNBC is going to fall into that trap
because you have three sure handed playmakers that have been
putting the ball in the basket at a very efficient
rate for five to six weeks now. So yeah, I Garth,
I'm with you, UNBC money line. I bought that little
dip down from one and a half to pick and
someone in the chat said, feels like a lot of
people are on that and it went down to pick.
Speaker 2: I don't know if I would.
Speaker 1: I don't know if that really matters to me here,
Like yeah, like listen, it's super public like that.
Speaker 2: This is the end a tournament. The public is gonna bet,
and that's just I would.
Speaker 1: I would put less stock before we get to the
next game, Rob, I gotta be honest. I think I
put less stock into what the public is doing in
the first couple rounds, Like the first round of the
NCAA Tournament just does not matter, like in my opinion,
if what matters is you playing a line that was playable,
like if the because because this is such a big
betting event that the public will move some stuff, stuff
will be trendy, it will move because of the almost
like that the public steam a lot.
Speaker 2: Of times will move something.
Speaker 1: It does not mean like I mean the off memory,
Rob didn't the public just absolutely crush the first couple
of rounds last year because of because every favorite one
we just didn't have that many dogs, Like they'll they'll
give it back at the later rounds when the books
can really like there's four games and the books can
can shape it one way or the other.
Speaker 2: But uh, like like bay You says, this is this
is exactly how I feel.
Speaker 1: Don't look at the public sharp splits in the first
round of the NCAA Tournament. N I t it might
help you a little bit more. This tournament is all
public money. Worry about getting the getting the side that
is the right side in your opinion, at the right number.
I felt like we did that with u NBC money line.
So UNBC money line four percent play for me and
my leg in the parlay. Are you are what are you?
Are you acknowledging the sharp splits right now?
Speaker 2: Rob? Or are you in the same boat as us?
Speaker 3: Well? Two things here, because Kelly asked us this question
on last call, you know, last Saturday or Saturday before.
I'm one of those guys who generally doesn't pay attention
to them. Ever, me too, ever, public I'm not looking
at percentages of tickets and money and all that stuff.
But I will say this. We made this point yesterday.
You're hammering it home right now that there is so
much money bit on this tournament by people who don't
bet college basketball all season long. This is a bracket fest.
This is an absolute mustye type of tournament, and everybody's
going to play those opinions. Adam of the bandwagoners are
heavily influenced by what they see off the television. Right Oh,
this guy says that, you know twelve McNeice is a winner.
You gotta go play mcnease. You know, however, it's hyped
up on TV. That's gonna sway the money more in
this tournament than it sways money in any college basketball
game that we see all season long. So a lot
of times you can find value if you like another side,
because public, like you say, has the ability because there's
so much volume bet by the public that they you
can find value in a game that maybe they push
one way because of what they've seen or heard. I
love if values in the chat. Let me just say
that I went back because I want you to check
something really quick on our Sunday Live Live Reaction broadcast.
And at the end of that chat by you makes
a great point and I think this is what I'm
trying to say here. He says, I can't wait to
see Nate Burlison's take on these games.
Speaker 4: And I mean, it's why your reposits here, right, Like
people like us would love to know what Nate Burlinson
thinks about these games, because that's the type of people
that they put in.
Speaker 3: Their studios to try and influence betting money. So it
is different, it's a different betting event. And so therefore,
long story short, I don't stare at public money, dollars, tickets,
whatever public sharp splits. I'm just not one of those
guys that follows that stuff.
Speaker 2: Quick promo.
Speaker 1: It's Tuesday, so it's five dollars Tuesday on the site.
I have a playoff for five dollars. Role will have
a playout for five dollars, but I mean, right now,
it makes far more sense to take advantage of that
double the CBB Firepower package either three days or the
rest of the way through it through the NCAA Tournament.
I believe for the full package through the NCAA Tournament,
you have to email into customer support if you want
both of us, but they'll get they'll they'll work up
a nice two for one for you on there. You know,
if you do the three day I think you're gonna
have access to at least at least Thursday's NCAAA moves,
a lot of which you know, I've already locked in
in a handful of plays, So check that out for us.
You know, if you're looking for this kind of information
and written form for your first and second round picks,
we've got that up on the website.
Speaker 2: So check out that package. Garth.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna come to your play in a second, but
I'm gonna use an earlier n I T game to illustrate.
I guess the the point that I was trying to make,
where the NCAA Tournament is very public, I'm typically not
worried about what the public is doing. I'm typically not
worried about like a like a big line move here
or there. All I'm trying to figure out is, you know,
if it's if it's if there's injury news. But like
with the end tournament, we're gonna find a lot of
that out. But most of most of the moves that
might have occurred based on an injury, you kind of
already know what the idea is for the NCAA tournament.
Flip over to the NIT, and this is where I'm
gonna be more put off by, like, let's say, like
a two point move, because if you go back to
last year's n I t or in recent years, the
hard part about betting NIT today and tomorrow in the
first round is you don't really know what team is
showing up.
Speaker 2: You don't know if.
Speaker 1: They're gonna show up with the same guys they had
all season long. Why would that be Because some of
these guys are gonna opt out. Some of these guys
are gonna hit the portal and not want to finish
the season with their team. So for me, rob I
really tread lightly on these first two days, or I'll
typically bet like if you remember last year, the entire
Samford team went on spring break, they got drawn into
the NIT. They had to call him back home. They said,
guys got to get back home, we got to go
play a game, and George Mason kind of crushed them.
They were not ready to play in that game. So
let's go to that game, liberty George Mason in the
nit tonight because you have George Mason here. A home
team which opened six, and this quickly got slammed down
to like four and a half, where I think it's
a four to four and a half where it's sort
of settled in right now. Maybe it gets bought back
a little bit. But just before I even get into
the breakdown of this game, this is where you really
got to start to evaluate potential mindset. In my opinion,
George Mason played in this tournament last year. I think
they made it two or three games. I think at
one point in time they probably felt like they were
going to go to the NCAA Tournament. I was at
their regular season finale. They played the best game they've
played all year. They blew out Saint Louis by thirty.
I feel like they probably thought they were going to
go into the A ten tournament and make a run,
and they got bounced early by Saint Bonaventure.
Speaker 2: So I see the Liberty money.
Speaker 1: Liberty is probably disappointed, rob but they didn't make the
NCAA tournament having won their league?
Speaker 3: Where?
Speaker 2: How where?
Speaker 1: How do you look at this from a from a
perspective of Okay, maybe George Mason isn't as interested in
this tournament because they played in it last year, or
Liberty they felt like they.
Speaker 2: Were going to the NCAA tournament.
Speaker 1: They are the the poster child for one seed that's
slipped up and now you're the dream is over. Who
do you think gets up for this game? Liberty or
George Mason.
Speaker 3: It's always a great question a couple of things about
this tournament, and it's not that it doesn't apply to
the NCAA tournament as well. But to your point, Adam,
there's always been a philosophy about this tournament that if
you get by the first game, Madison Square Gardens starts
to look better and better and better. So for favorites.
In other words, if they have the motivation, if they
have the ambition to get through a first game, then
generally once they get through the first one, they're like, okay,
we can we can move on here. Now everybody wants
to get the MSG. It interested me really quick the
teams that exited or didn't accept bids from this tournament. Belmont,
now we don't want to play Virginia Tech. Now we
don't want to play San Diego State, Seaton Hall, Indiana,
Florida State, and Oklahoma. This could it's a good tourney
as it is, could have been a great gentlement of
people that accepted bids. I think one of the key
things here is days off. You get a lot of
mid majors, low majors and mid majors in this tournament
that played their conference tournaments not last weekend, but two
weekends ago. So you're talking about eight nine days off rest. RUSS,
that's always twenty twenty hindsight, we don't know the answer
to that. My handicaps in these early games kind of
gets simplistic. Oh yeah, last point I want to make,
is it totals better? It's always funny to me, but
it comes true that when you go down the NCAA
tournament board and just just look at every single game
and watch which way the total moves. Generally speaking, seven
out of ten are bet to the under, maybe more
n I t every game is bet to the over,
and they play scoring games every year. But this is
like the over tournament where money is concerned early betting
is concerned the other tournament under betting. For me, this
game became pretty simplistic because the styles. Neither team wants
to run. George Mason's better defensively. Liberty is not bad
defensively because they'll get back, they'll take you out of transition,
They'll make you play their half court against their half
court defense. I don't know that George Mason wants to
run anyway. They haven't shown that tendency all season long.
But I think that they have more shot makers on
the Liberty side. If I'm gonna play this game, and
if motivation is equal, and if pace is equal and defense,
I give the slight edge the GMU home floor. We
have to give the GM. You don't know about their
interest level, but shot makers to me make the difference here.
So when I can get this amount of points with
a team that can shoot threes the way Liberty can,
I'm probably interested in that side again. The disappointment Liberty
went out in their first crack at the CUSA Tournament.
I mean Missouris took them out right away. There's got
to be a little bit of motivation from them here.
So I didn't play it, Adam, but I think my
very very simple lean here is to the team that
makes more shots. George Mason has such a tendency to
brick brick brick brick that I would rather have liberty
plus points.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is this is such an interesting one because
I'm having like again, I'm having a hard time figuring
out where that like what I think, you know, the
game's in Fairfax, so that that they should typically they
get they got a live I'm pretty sure they got
a lively crowd for the n I T last year,
and you know there that's that is one place where
it's like George Mason's fans like pretty much always show up.
Speaker 2: I feel like they get.
Speaker 1: Very very good band support more often than not, so
that I kind of expect that they'll have I think
there was eight thousand in a ten thousand seed arena
when I was there the other day. I feel like
they're gonna have some people come out and watch this game.
But now, like for that big of a move, six
down to four and a half very quickly. That's where
I got to kind of dig and see if I
can get any info on George Mason.
Speaker 2: Do they have Are they going to show up without
two starters? Right?
Speaker 1: Like is Liberty gonna show up without multiple starters? So
I think that is like what I'll be looking for though,
Like if I'm from a handicapping perspective, what you're gonna
want to do tonight and tomorrow, even if you don't
play the n I t is make notes and see
who's not showing up in that starting lineup, because chances
are if they're out for game one, they're out for
the tournament almost in every scenario.
Speaker 2: And I remember last year you had a lot of like.
Speaker 1: As it pertained to like Chattanooga Bradley, you know guys
that like it kept being rumored, Oh this guy might play,
this guy might play, and they never played because I
think I think a lot of these guys like they
make a conscious effort no I'm out for the tournament
and they're out. So that that's something I'll be looking
at tonight tomorrow. I don't I haven't played anything yet,
but I think that is the approach you need to
use with the n I T. Take a look at
the starting lineups, see if that guy came off the bench,
if if two of their top four scorers did not
play in the opener, they're probably not gonna play on Saturday,
and and sort of make your adjustments from there. We'll
stay let's stay in the n I T and go
to So Garth says his n T best bet is
you see Irvine minus two and a half. This is
this is interesting because you see Irvine went to the
final of this tournament last year. I believe they lost
in a in overtime in a very very good game.
And one final thing I'll point out before I kicked
this West Coast game over to you, Rob, I believe
this year the final is at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis,
and for the first time ever, it's going to be
part of Final four weekend. So they're actually going to
play this game like as part of the Final four,
like Saturday or or the weekend at Hinkle. And of
course the final four this year is in Indianapolis at
at Lucas Oil. I believe, I think, or yeah, I
think that's probably where it is. So what what do
you make of that, like, that's pretty cool to that.
Now you know, maybe you're not going to playing to
go to MSG. You're playing to basically be part of
Final four weekend, so you will get a chance where
all eyes are on you that weekend in a standalone game.
And uh take that discussion right into Garth's best bet
you see Irvine minus two and a half.
Speaker 3: Yeah, interesting, Adam, I kept preferring MSG showing off my
age and covering this tournament so often the semis are
in hinkle, the championship is in gamebridge, which must be
where the NCAA Final is in gamebridge if it's on
the same way. That playing on the same weekend as
the end championship is huge for these kids to get
eyeballs on them because sometimes the NIT is the forgotten tournament.
This year the NIT, kudos to them to make sure
that it's not the forgotten tournament. That you can watch
us too, so the incentive to get there is huge.
I'm going to backtrack real fast. Is something that you
said about starting lineups, check and see if Kidchen. We
deal with an element nowadays that we never had to
deal with, and that is the transfer Portland. Some of
these kids on these teams, especially mid majors, have their
eyes on transferring out and that's half a reason why
you wouldn't play in a tournament like this. You already
have one foot out the door. I'm gonna be I'm
talking with another team already. I'm pretty well set to
go somewhere else. I'm not going to play in this tournament.
A lot of stuff to consider here where personnel is concerned.
In this game, UNLV made a heck of a run.
Josh Passner got his doors blown in by Utah State
second round I think of the Mountain West Conference tournament.
But he had that team playing as well as they played.
I tell you the truth that help me remember the game.
I know you and I both were up because we
were texting about it. UNLB looked horrible. They couldn't even
dribble the ball across half court.
Speaker 1: It was New Mexico, I think New Mexico, and it.
Speaker 3: Was like, at that point in time, I'm like, this
team is horrendous. I'm never betting them. And somehow Passinger
rallied that team to play pretty well down the stretch,
got a Mountain West Conference win in the tournament, and
then got crushed by Utah State, which is just a
better team here Irvine. I think one of the points
you made is very valid a team. I often use
this in a handicap of this tournament. If a team
gets close, especially if it's a mid major, and you
get close to winning the tournament the prior season, I
think the motivation is there the next season. Now, again,
you have to have some of the same returnees on
that team, because if your whole squad is brand new,
it really doesn't apply as much as it would if
you have guys that have been there want to get
back there. I'd like this game over the total for
a lot of reasons. UNLV, with Passner playing faster, certainly
showed more capability to score. I don't know what their
level of interest is in this. All I know is
that they did play a lot better down the stretch,
and I wouldn't expect that to change. Josh Passner is
a guy who's trying to build a program, and I
don't think those types of coaches walk into these games
and you know, a schedule loss, so to speak. And
we didn't make the NCAA tournament. They were never going
to make the NCAAA tournament, so this is kind of
a prize to them. Irvine obviously little heartbreak from not
being in the NCAAA tournament. This game at Canny's NIT
totals get bashed to the overeven up to one fifty
two and a half. Irvine's still a good defense team,
but man, are they offensively capable this year? And I
think these games just get played looser for whatever reason,
especially these first round games get played a little bit looser.
So I'm looking at unlbucer over the total right now,
sitting at one fifty two and a half value maybe
long gone. That's why I haven't bet it's still looking
at it.
Speaker 1: See this is this is a prime example of a
game that I'm gonna watch intently because I loved where
Josh Passner's like he was. I enjoyed listening to him
talk this week at the Mountain West. He had he
had a ton of positive energy. You know, they won
their first game. It didn't work out against Utah State,
but I don't think there's much of a shame like
they would have they would have had to beat Utah
State for the third time this year. Kind of no
shame in getting beat by them. He came out after
the game and was like, I want to keep this
team together, Like he said it in the post game
where he was like, I got to get out in fundraise.
I got to figure out what I've got to do
because I want. I want these guys to come back.
So I'll be looking at UNLV and what this starting
lineup looks like, because if UNLV's got the guys that
they have been playing with for the last month now
and everyone's in, they might I kind of think they
could win this tournament. But if they show up at
the Burn Events Center tonight, which again should be noted,
you see Irvine has probably doesn't get many of these
name opponents on their home floor, so this is probably
exciting for them to get to host the host UNLB,
which is still a name enough of a name out
out in the West Coast. Like then, you know, this
is a tough game. But if I'll tell you this
right now, if UNLB has their full complement of players,
they're very dangerous in this game. And if they win,
that's a team I'll target in a later round. But
I don't know if Pastor was trying to tell us like, yeah,
I'm gonna lose my whole team. You know, like trying
to read between the lines, you might have been like, hey,
like I want to keep this team together, but I
know that they're all going to bounce. So if that's
the case and they show up in Irvine tonight with
three starters out, then yeah, I think I think Garth
probably has a good bet. That is why this tournament
is very difficult. In the first couple of rounds, there's plenty.
See here's the way it's gonna work. The first couple
of rounds of the NCAA Tournament are your chance to
probably make money in the NCAA Tournament, the n T
You know, I think once you get one look at
these teams, there's gonna be some numbers you can be
over the weekend into the round of eight. So Rob,
I'm gonna go back to an NCAA Tournament game because
a couple of people wanted to want to talk about
this game, and I've got opinions here just on this
team and then on this matchup in general. So let's
go to Arkansas, Hawaii. We talked about this for a
minute the other day with Kelly, I kind of knee jerk.
She put me on the spot and I said, well,
the one non one seed that I think has a
real opportunity to win this tournament is Arkansas. I would
even go as far as to say sixty to one
on an Arkansas future is a good bet for the price.
You know, obviously gonna have some work to do, probably
gonna have to beat multiple one seeds, but they're kind
of the one team I think could do it, and
Darius Acuff is an absolute stud it. Let's just straight
up talk Arkansas Hawaii, though for right now I kind
of think Arkansas blows them out. The people in the
chat want to want your opinion on the team total,
So Arkansas Hawaii, anything side or total related for you
in this one.
Speaker 3: Yeah, And we talked a little bit about this yesterday,
and I remember asking you the question, you know, digging
into this game, and first of all, that felt like
you and I were on an island on Sunday because
they were asking us about seeds who are number one
seeds were, et cetera, et cetera. And I had said,
you know, I think the number five team, if you're
going in order, should be Arkansas. And it seems like
none of the rest of the panel agreed with you
and I on our strong opinion of Arkansas. But and
it's not for you. It's definitely not formulated over the
course of this past week. And it was formulated way
back when you went to the Michigan State game. For me,
I think the last ten games of the year, discounting
the Florida absolute destruction, which Florida was just on a
rampage at that point in time. But you know, in
this tournament you want to win with guards. Here's where
I'm going with this as far as team total, as
I try to look it up. I asked yesterday because
I'd read an article Hawaii plays zero help defense. They
don't help on the ball. They would rather let the
rather than leaving a guy open by doubling. They would
rather trust their guy to be able to defend. And
if a guy gets pett and that there's plenty of
foot of this where a ballhandle, let's say acuff gets
past his man, there's no help coming. They teach their
kids to angle. If you get behind and you're trailing,
they teach them to get their body on an angle
so that you can block a shot from the side,
et cetera. That being what it is, x's and o's
and technical talk, man, I don't know if you want
to play no help defense against Arkansas. I mean some
of this stuff when you watch it in very slow motion,
which we don't get to see during games, show you
a wide open lane, and show you that mid range,
which Arkansas is good at mid range, and then lob
passes are wide open against this Hawaii defense. And to me,
it's just a bad matchup for Hawaii defense. And then
I ask myself, you know, well, and Hawaii is a
veteran team, but it's a mixed match veteran team, like
they got transfers from all over the place, junior college,
D two, et cetera. Kudos to them for coming together
the way they did, But I don't think they can
score if they get behind. Adam, you always have to
figure the if we're behind angle. It's nice to say
Hawaii might be able to slow down the pace here.
I don't think they can. Arkansas is going to dictate
to them. But then I always ask myself to these
people who say, oh, slower game, let's possessions. Bet the dog,
I say to myself, but what if that dog is
behind by twelve? What are they gonna do with their
slow possessions. Now at some point you have to try
and move and score and catch up, and in this case,
I think the snowball effect happens. I don't know. And
Hawaii was a really good team in conference this year.
I just don't know that they match up well with
this team. They needed a different opponent for me. I
would like Arkansas in the game. We haven't. You know,
the odds maker probably came out with a really good
number here at them. They're being high enough to make
you think twice team totally in instance is eighty seven
and a half. That's even high enough to make you
think twice? Can you get to eighty eight against this team?
And coach Cal has been here so often that he
kind of knows how to manage the Thursday, Saturday, Friday, Sunday,
you know, the whole six game deal here. So I
wouldn't be surprised if a Cuff and company end up,
if they're winning by double digits, end up sitting the
last three minutes, end up sitting the last four minutes
because Cal knows how to manage his players for the
game two days later, Like Arkansas, just don't know that
I can get there at this price don't know that
I can get there at that total price. But Hawaii
I think has drawn a very very bad as bad
a matchup as they could draw. I think they drew
here against Arkansas.
Speaker 1: Yeah, God says he likes the first half team total
under on Hawaii thirty five and a half. Listen, I'm
pretty much gonna be I'm with you, Rob. I think
the books absolutely nailed the number here, fifteen and a half.
That's I think I was at right around there, like
fifteen point nine or something like that.
Speaker 2: Had this been like eleven or twelve, I'd be all
over Arkansas.
Speaker 1: I still think if you forced an opinion out of me,
I think they probably cover the fifteen and a half,
and I'll get I'll go as far as to give
you another bet that I really like my buddy CT
Chris Thurston CT bets on Twitter. Emailed me or email.
We don't communicate very I don't know why. I just
said email. Rob texted me last night and was like, Hey,
Arkansas roughly minus one forty to make the sweet sixteen?
Speaker 2: Do you like that?
Speaker 1: And I started to compute and calculate a little bit,
and I was like, oh, I absolutely loved that that's
a great bet, think he said. He ended up laying
minus one forty five. I had that priced over two dollars.
I don't think there's a chance that Arkansas loses this game.
I know coach cal lost to Oakland, but like I did,
I read some ride a little bit about that too, like, oh,
maybe Hawaii will play his zone. It's like it would
be a bad zone defense. Greg can't be all he
does is play zone. That was like a moment that he.
Speaker 2: Prepared for forty years for to beat Kentucky.
Speaker 1: Just throwing Hawaii just throwing his zone out there that
they've played only a handful of times this year. How's
that gonna like? You really think that's gonna deter this
Arkansas team?
Speaker 2: I don't.
Speaker 1: So I will likely like Arkansas in the next round
as well. They might, like if high Point polls the upset,
they're a huge favorite there. They're probably a four point
favorite against Wisconsin. So I will give that bet for
the show. It's not gonna be a client play, but
Arkansas to make the Sweet sixteen at minus one forty five,
I've got I've got that price at like closer to
two dollars.
Speaker 2: So that is a bet I like quite a bit.
Speaker 3: I can understand it for sure. Their problem, their only
problem in that bracket to me, is gonna be that
they have to play Arizona, and I kind of like
Arizona to win the whole thing. That Arkansas Arizona game,
if it happens, will be really, really nice. Sorry, I
couldn't give an opinion on that team total one way
or the other. But I think again, if I had
have seen eighty four and a half, very very identical
to what you were saying about the point spread. If
you'd have seen a twelve of you de been on Arkansas.
If I'd have seen an eighty four and a half,
I probably would have been on team total over asking
for eighty eight is a lot.
Speaker 1: All right, Rob, Let's bring it back to today. I'm
gonna give you the floor. Let's go two team or
today we've had we had good luck with the two
teamers last week Parleigh of the day over the weekend
we hit two of three. Akron fell a couple points
short from making that a parlay winner for us. So
why don't you lock in a parlay leg from tonight
to go with mine earlier and then maybe we'll go
to a different one more game before we're off.
Speaker 3: So we talked about a matchup earlier George Mason Liberty,
and the equivalent of that matchup out west is Seattle
Saint Thomas. It's almost the same matchup, right, Seattle kind
of equates the GM you Saint Thomas equates to Liberty.
I just think that for me, Saint Thomas will have
the motivation, not that Seattle won't there at home as well,
but I think St. Thomas will have motivation to play
well here. And I just don't know that until you
get hit with the amount of three point shooting that
Saint Thomas has, I don't know that you kind of
know how to deal with it. And Seattle hasn't seen it.
And I don't know that Seattle has seen it in
conference either. Playing a very good conference play very good teams,
I can honestly say that I don't believe Gonzaga lines
up with the amount of three point shooting that Saint
Thomas has, nor does Saint Mary's, nor does Santa Clara.
They're all better teams, they just play different styles. I
was a little bit reluctant Adam to take the points
in this game, just because Seattle's going to be motivated
to and they're a good defensive team, et cetera. But
I like the Saint Thomas team total. I really feel
like there's going to be a half here, and it
may be the first half, and of course it could
be the second half because Sat. Saint Thomas is going
to have to adjust to the rims in this gym.
But you're asking a team to have four guys basically
go cold all at once in one night. I just
don't see that happening. The number here because the total
was low for Saint Thomas, I believe was seventy one
and a half. For seventy two and a half. Let
me just get it right for the for the viewers
here so we can lock this play in. I'm staring
at Saint Thomas team total over what's currently seventy two
and a half pointed toward the under, so you can
probably take this point down and get even money. Probably
at seventy one and a half, you could probably lay
very little juice, which may be a better way to
go here. But I think St. Thomas can find their
way to seventy three against Seattle. I honestly do. I
think there's enough shooting on this team. Their offensive explosiveness
has been on display all sea and long. The counter
argument to this play is, you know what, Rob, there's
going to be few possessions in this game. Seattle doesn't
want to go. St. Thomas doesn't want to go. But
I always come back with the same argument to people
who tell me that, Adam, is that if you're extremely
efficient offensively, I don't care how slow you go. If
you're scoring one point one, one point two every time
down the floor per possession, who cares how slow you go.
You're going to get to where you need to get to. Here,
it's not a heck of a lot. I never handicapped
this in but in games like this that are lined
at you know three or less, overtime is always a
chance for you. It's a small percentage chance, but you
have overtime to help out. So for me, it's going
to be Saint Thomas team total over seventy two and
a half. And I can advise guys, if you want
to like I say this, at seventy two and a half,
the over is like minus o five and in some
cases a dollar you can get down to seventy one
and a half. In late fifteen cents twenty cents. I
could recommend that option as well, but we're for purpose
of the show, we're going to go seventy two and
a half under minus one fifteen.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, that's that's a game I'm very interested
to watch.
Speaker 2: We'll be rooting for your over.
Speaker 1: I don't know if we'll have a side play there
because quite frankly, I see merit to both teams. It's
going to be at the Red Hawk Arena, so it's
going to be in the small on campus facility, not
down a Climate Pledge, as far as I know, may
may give them a little bit more of a home
court edge for that game because that building is very small.
They've they've pretty much Seattle's pretty much gone the Villanova
Yukon route, where they're like playing half of their games
at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle and the other half
in the very tiny red Hawk Center on campus. So
this one is is Red Hawk Center. But I really
like that Saint Thomas team too, rob So, like I'm
not really dying the lay point against them.
Speaker 2: Gonna be a great watch and we'll be rooting for
your over.
Speaker 1: So rather than sort of ramble on that game where
I don't have as much of an opinion, I will
throw one more game out there from the nit that
I do have an opinion on, and I'm sure you
are going to as well. So Auburn is playing in
this tournament. Props to Auburn. They they could have just
declined it, and no, you know, it would have been
the thing to do. But I think that's a really
good move by Bruce, by Steven Pearl to like maybe
build up some goodwill in the basketball community and like,
you know, kind of almost show like okay, like no,
we you know, we'll let's go prove that we got snubbed, right,
we can go out. We Theoretically, Auburn should win this tournament.
If they care, they should win this tournament. AM forty
one here, let me pull this up, he says, Auburn
minus seventeen and a half.
Speaker 2: This line should be Auburn minus twenty.
Speaker 1: Happy to lay it, I'd be a little I don't
know if i'd lay twenty. Honestly, I thought this line
was way too big. And I'm kicking myself for missing
that opener of nineteen and a half because if you
remember Rob last year, Richie Riley threw a fit when
they were invited to the NIT and then told that
they invited too many teams and that they couldn't come. Oh,
South Alabama got left out of the NIT and he
was hot at that happening because they really wanted to play.
Now they get there this year, I think this kind
of feels like a reward to them, Like they get
to go and play at Auburn, Like that's gonna be
a big deal for another, you know, in state team
right there, and at worst, at least you know, with
Richie Riley, you know you're gonna get that zone and
Auburn's probably gonna have to sort of light it up
to cover that number. So I actually leaned the plus
seventeen and a half. I'm mad that I missed the
number in that one. I think the dog is live
to hang around there. What do you think South Alabama,
Auburn anything on the total in that one as well?
Speaker 3: Well. I'll say first and foremost that this is a real,
real moment for even Perl because if his players walk
out on the floor and don't care and win this
game by three or lose this game straight up or whatever,
that's not good. Coach is trying to build something here
and if his players don't care about being here, that
he didn't do his job. So we'll see he should
have him motivated. South Alabama motivation obvious in this case. Again,
you talked about being snubbed last year, but just the
in state, little brother type of deal complex that they'll
have is huge in that game. Total wise, Auburn has
not been good defensively all season long. South Alabama does
have capability to score. This game to me, is underpriced
total wise, Why Auburn, excuse me, if motivated, why they
wouldn't get to eighty plus at home is beyond me.
I think they're more than apt to give up over
seventy to the other side closer to seventy five. So
to me, I thought that total was underpriced. Don't know
if i'd either team total, I'd rather not exclude either one.
But again, it's a lot of you know, it's understandable,
and I want to go back really quick to your
first point about kudos to Auburn for playing here. It's understandable.
I've read off the list of teams that didn't understandable.
Why Belmont didn't, Casey Alexander flew the coop. Okay, we're
in disarray. We can't really play. But you know, another
SEC team like Oklahoma, who I really wanted to see
in the NCAA tournament field at which Porter Moser had
chosen to play.
Speaker 2: I think I think they went to the Crown instead.
So they are playing, Oh did they Okay?
Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, good, And they're gonna let us bet on
the crown this year.
Speaker 2: They're gonna let us bet on the Crown.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Virginia Tech seat in Hall, Indiana. Consider it down line,
So kudos just to reinforce your point to Auburn for
showing up and playing in this tournament. Well, see if
Stephen pro can motivate and if these guys are ready
to go.
Speaker 1: Yeah I was. My number was much closer to way
where the line is now. I was at like sixteen
point four. And again I'm just kind of you know,
those numbers came out nit like a little bit later
later on in the day yesterday, and I wasn't really
dying to lock anything in yet, just because you want
to try to, you know, scour for info, make sure
that you've got a team full of guys playing. But yeah,
I'm kicking myself if Auburn takes money, then that goes
back to like nineteen you may see me jumping with
the dog, and I just go back to last year
and how disappointed that Richie Riley was when his team
was included in the NIT and then basically had their
bid taken away and he was just like came right out,
was like this is like like these players are crushed,
like they wanted to play in that tournament, and so yeah,
I kind of almost think that they'll how could you
not be fired up for this game if you're South Alabama,
Like you know, you had to get through the Sun
Belt Gauntlet to go to the NCAA tournament and that
was always going to be really tough, and now you're
getting to go on the road and play your SEC
in state foe in this game.
Speaker 2: That that to me is like.
Speaker 1: I'll be shocked if you don't get South Alabama's best
effort here. And even if Auburn comes to play, like
what's to say they're just going to totally torch that zone,
which is is always organized, Like Auburn could win in
a blowout, win this by fourteen and you still cover easily.
So yeah, I like the Jaguars South Alabama on the
road tonight.
Speaker 3: Let me backtrack to a point we make of because
if you were talking, my screen just lit up across
the board universally with Howard, Maryland Baltimore County being up
two points from one forty and a half in some
cases to one forty two and a half. Where the
total is concerns from thankful for playing yesterday at thirty
nine and a half, but it looks like heavy money
just piled in on over in the Howard UNBC game.
Speaker 2: They watched the show that's all I can. That's all
that's only only explanation for that.
Speaker 1: They waited for the Robbino stamp of approval, and they
went and bet the old That's what I think. Great there,
all right, So I'm gonna give out one of my
plays for tonight. It's the only thing I've bet so far.
It's a four percent client play for me, I am
on the UNBC Retrievers minus one ten and for rob Bino,
the other leg of our two team or today Saint
Thomas team total over seventy two and a half. Maybe
we'll get crazier later in the week, but we rattled
off a couple of two team winners yes last week,
so I feel like we got to kind of stick
there for now. So one more time, two team parlay
for the show UNBC minus one ten. That's a client
play for me and Saint Thomas. Team total over seventy
two and a half. Same show tomorrow, ten am. We'll
look at the first four games for tomorrow. We'll try
to get to the n IT games and if you
guys insist on a tournament game for Thursday or Friday,
we'll go there as well. Very much appreciate you guys
tuning in today and every day and the whole season.
Have a great March and bring this home and we'll
see you guys in the morning.