1
00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:04,759
Speaker 1: The Miami Hurricanes taking on the Indiana Hoosiers. The National

2
00:00:04,839 --> 00:00:23,079
Championship edition of bet on It is up next. Kelly

3
00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:26,480
Stewart here, Marco DiAngelo, Yanni the Greek, And before we

4
00:00:26,519 --> 00:00:29,879
get into this year's college football National Championship Game, I

5
00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:32,479
just wanted to say thank you to all of our

6
00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:38,840
loyal listeners, commenters, Bears, haters, Miami Hurricane haters, all of

7
00:00:38,880 --> 00:00:41,920
the above. Okay, all jokes aside. We love you guys,

8
00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:44,560
and we appreciate every single one of you for hanging

9
00:00:44,600 --> 00:00:47,399
out with us every single week during the college football season.

10
00:00:47,439 --> 00:00:48,960
Here on bet on It, We're gonna get right into

11
00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:50,600
this National Championship game.

12
00:00:50,759 --> 00:00:52,399
Speaker 2: We're in your little roundtable style.

13
00:00:52,759 --> 00:00:56,560
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go first, Marco is gonna cover his head

14
00:00:56,600 --> 00:00:58,560
with the paper bag, and VR is going to just

15
00:00:58,600 --> 00:01:00,520
walk out of the room when I say what I

16
00:01:00,560 --> 00:01:03,520
did in this one. Currently, Miami is an eight and

17
00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:06,719
a half point underdog. Forty seven and a half is

18
00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:09,519
the total. And I do a little show called Kelly

19
00:01:09,519 --> 00:01:13,480
and Murray. And when we were sitting there doing the

20
00:01:13,519 --> 00:01:18,400
show last week before either of these teams won, I said,

21
00:01:18,560 --> 00:01:21,599
what's Miami Indiana? John Murray says, uh, I said six

22
00:01:21,599 --> 00:01:23,359
and a half. He goes, oh, no, no, not that high,

23
00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:25,439
not that high, And here we are it's eight and

24
00:01:25,439 --> 00:01:27,439
a half. And then I texted this morning. I said, John, Mary,

25
00:01:27,439 --> 00:01:28,599
I thought you said it wouldn't be this high, and

26
00:01:28,599 --> 00:01:30,079
he goes, what do you want from me?

27
00:01:30,239 --> 00:01:30,560
Speaker 3: Kid?

28
00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:34,280
Speaker 1: Everyone is betting Indiana, and frankly, I don't blame them.

29
00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:36,840
This was a team that we talked about went from

30
00:01:36,959 --> 00:01:39,879
the hunter as a big underdog to the hunted.

31
00:01:40,439 --> 00:01:42,280
Speaker 2: Now for the part where the.

32
00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:44,400
Speaker 1: Guys are gonna look at me and discussed when this

33
00:01:44,439 --> 00:01:46,400
one's was seven and a half. I teased it with

34
00:01:46,480 --> 00:01:49,120
the Bears and the Bills last weekend of the Wild's

35
00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:51,480
Card round, and then on Monday night I teased it

36
00:01:51,519 --> 00:01:55,719
with these Steelers womp womp. That was really really stupid

37
00:01:55,760 --> 00:01:58,519
and minus ev on my part. So you guys can

38
00:01:58,560 --> 00:01:59,920
tell me what an idiot you think I am in

39
00:02:00,079 --> 00:02:02,519
the comment section. But this week I did tease it

40
00:02:02,560 --> 00:02:07,200
with the Broncos up over that touchdown and the Seahawks

41
00:02:07,719 --> 00:02:12,159
down below that field goal. Now for the disdain from

42
00:02:12,159 --> 00:02:14,879
my coworkers, what are your his thoughts on this game?

43
00:02:14,879 --> 00:02:16,759
We're gonna break it down just a little bit further

44
00:02:17,159 --> 00:02:19,879
Marco D'Angelo. First, are you are you putting the cone

45
00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:20,639
of shame on me?

46
00:02:21,960 --> 00:02:24,680
Speaker 4: No, Kelly, Actually it's funny the way you said that

47
00:02:24,919 --> 00:02:27,639
with you know what you talked with John Murray, Because

48
00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:31,479
when that game was being played last week and we were,

49
00:02:31,639 --> 00:02:33,919
you know, the final minutes, I texted one of my

50
00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:37,319
buddies and said, what do you make the line on

51
00:02:37,560 --> 00:02:41,120
the National Championship game? His answer was six and a

52
00:02:41,199 --> 00:02:44,680
half like yours. Mine was eight and a half. And

53
00:02:44,719 --> 00:02:47,560
he says, you're crazy, it's not gonna be that high,

54
00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:51,879
and I said, remember the point. The line the books

55
00:02:51,879 --> 00:02:54,439
are going to come out with is not a power rating.

56
00:02:54,520 --> 00:02:58,199
This team is this many points x better than the other.

57
00:02:58,719 --> 00:03:01,639
It is what the public perception is gonna be to

58
00:03:01,719 --> 00:03:04,400
try to get the equal betted. And I knew it

59
00:03:04,439 --> 00:03:07,000
was gonna be at least seven and a half. But Kelly,

60
00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:10,400
I know you're not supposed to tease college plays, but

61
00:03:10,479 --> 00:03:13,680
sometimes you're gonna do that, and I've done it a

62
00:03:13,759 --> 00:03:16,919
handful of times in my career as well. I said,

63
00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:21,759
the public is going to tees Indiana in this game.

64
00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:25,199
The books are gonna treat it just like an NFL game,

65
00:03:25,439 --> 00:03:28,439
and they're gonna go to the taser blocker, hence the

66
00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:31,680
number of getting this number at eight and a half,

67
00:03:31,759 --> 00:03:34,240
and it's probably gonna push to nine. That's the way

68
00:03:34,319 --> 00:03:35,919
I read it, and that's why I said eight and

69
00:03:35,960 --> 00:03:36,280
a half.

70
00:03:37,319 --> 00:03:38,319
Speaker 1: Very very interesting.

71
00:03:38,919 --> 00:03:39,240
Speaker 2: VR.

72
00:03:39,439 --> 00:03:42,639
Speaker 1: There's lots of comments every single week about your power ratings.

73
00:03:42,919 --> 00:03:45,719
Break down each of these two from a power ratings

74
00:03:45,759 --> 00:03:48,280
perspective before we break down the game itself.

75
00:03:48,599 --> 00:03:51,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, and listen, nothing is perfect, but the bottom line

76
00:03:51,759 --> 00:03:54,199
is numbers do not line, and my power ratings have

77
00:03:54,280 --> 00:03:57,520
absolutely zero bias. They're not gonna be one hundred percent

78
00:03:57,759 --> 00:04:00,719
because even if the power rating is on point, there's

79
00:04:00,719 --> 00:04:02,759
still a lot of randomness that could play out on

80
00:04:02,800 --> 00:04:05,879
a football field over sixty minutes. But I still trust

81
00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:09,919
the numbers because they produced profit which had me finish

82
00:04:10,000 --> 00:04:13,159
in number one at wager Talk and our ROI was

83
00:04:13,199 --> 00:04:16,519
in double digits. So I trust my numbers a lot.

84
00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:19,000
Here's what we're looking at at this game, truth.

85
00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:20,399
Speaker 2: Be told, power rating wise.

86
00:04:20,959 --> 00:04:25,199
Speaker 3: This line's too short because straight power rating no narrative

87
00:04:25,240 --> 00:04:28,639
at all. Pretend we didn't watch last week's games and

88
00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:33,399
we were just looking at the data. Offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency,

89
00:04:33,439 --> 00:04:37,720
special teams, strength of schedule, all of that in the mix,

90
00:04:37,879 --> 00:04:41,360
point scored, points allowed, point differential, all the things that matter.

91
00:04:43,439 --> 00:04:46,639
Indiana is a double digit favorite over Miami. And that's

92
00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:50,439
coming from someone who actually thinks Miami is higher ranked

93
00:04:50,439 --> 00:04:53,680
than what the AP has because right now Miami is

94
00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:57,879
ranked tenth in the AP, Indiana number one. My rankings

95
00:04:57,920 --> 00:05:02,480
have Miami seventh in our ratings and Indiana number one,

96
00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:05,120
and yet Indiana should still be about a ten to

97
00:05:05,160 --> 00:05:07,800
ten and a half point favorite. And the bottom line

98
00:05:07,839 --> 00:05:10,199
is this. It's simply because they have the number one

99
00:05:10,199 --> 00:05:14,160
offense inefficiency and the number two defense, so there's balanced

100
00:05:14,199 --> 00:05:16,759
as you're gonna get. And they did this with the

101
00:05:16,839 --> 00:05:20,480
number six strength of schedule, so they arguably had one

102
00:05:20,480 --> 00:05:23,439
of the toughest strength of schedules on the planet, and

103
00:05:23,519 --> 00:05:25,519
they finished the year number one and two.

104
00:05:25,439 --> 00:05:26,600
Speaker 2: In offensive defense.

105
00:05:26,639 --> 00:05:31,600
Speaker 3: You can't take anything away from this Indiana team. Now, Miami,

106
00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:35,399
they've been a little harder to power rate because they

107
00:05:35,439 --> 00:05:41,480
continue to outperform their expectations. And a team can only

108
00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:45,600
do that for so long. It's unsustainable long term. But

109
00:05:45,639 --> 00:05:47,639
we're not talking long term. We just need to do

110
00:05:47,680 --> 00:05:50,920
it over ten, eleven, twelve games in college football. That's

111
00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:54,639
where the difference is because on paper, Miami's barely a

112
00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:57,319
top twenty offensive team and they are at a top

113
00:05:57,360 --> 00:06:02,879
five defensive team, but that's barely a top twenty schedule.

114
00:06:03,199 --> 00:06:07,319
So they've had a much easier schedule than Indiana. And

115
00:06:07,959 --> 00:06:12,319
I think that defense, although is impressive, I don't think

116
00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:15,639
it's as impressive as we're making it out to be. Now,

117
00:06:15,759 --> 00:06:18,720
this isn't me telling you I love Indiana. This is

118
00:06:18,759 --> 00:06:22,040
me telling you power rating wise, this is where the

119
00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:25,480
numbers should be about Indiana minus ten, ten and a half.

120
00:06:26,000 --> 00:06:29,000
And I won't be surprised to see the teaser protection

121
00:06:29,319 --> 00:06:32,399
go up through nine because this is that type of

122
00:06:32,439 --> 00:06:35,040
game where I think even a lot of sharp betters

123
00:06:35,079 --> 00:06:38,680
will tease it if it falls near that wongable numbers.

124
00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:41,879
We did so last year in the National Championship or

125
00:06:41,879 --> 00:06:45,000
the year before, I believe, but we did move a

126
00:06:45,079 --> 00:06:49,800
teaser in college football in the National Championship just like this,

127
00:06:50,680 --> 00:06:53,959
and I think that's why, like Marco touched on, don't

128
00:06:53,959 --> 00:06:56,399
be surprised to see those nines and nine and a

129
00:06:56,439 --> 00:07:00,920
halfs pop up, especially at the sharpest book that offer

130
00:07:01,000 --> 00:07:01,879
fair teasers.

131
00:07:02,040 --> 00:07:04,199
Speaker 2: If you're charging one thirty five for a teaser. It

132
00:07:04,240 --> 00:07:04,920
doesn't matter.

133
00:07:05,079 --> 00:07:07,480
Speaker 3: You don't need to protect anything. They're already taking the

134
00:07:07,480 --> 00:07:10,720
worst of it. But those ones that give fair teaser

135
00:07:10,759 --> 00:07:13,639
ons pay attention. If they go to nine nine and

136
00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:17,439
a half, that's exactly what they're doing. I don't think, Kelly,

137
00:07:17,480 --> 00:07:19,600
you're gonna get one sided action. So let me be

138
00:07:19,639 --> 00:07:24,319
real quick with the market update. Here's the bottom line.

139
00:07:24,519 --> 00:07:28,240
This happens every Super Bowl, every national championship because we

140
00:07:28,319 --> 00:07:31,199
have just about two weeks to prepare, sometimes one week.

141
00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:34,439
But the early money comes in on Team AY, and

142
00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:36,959
that money continues to come in on Team A because

143
00:07:37,000 --> 00:07:39,839
that's the way the line's moving. Anyone that likes Team

144
00:07:39,920 --> 00:07:42,759
B isn't stepp into the window yet why, because the

145
00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:47,439
line's moving towards Team A. At about the midway point,

146
00:07:47,519 --> 00:07:51,160
the books are gonna start complaining that everyone's on Team A,

147
00:07:51,680 --> 00:07:52,680
we need Team B.

148
00:07:53,279 --> 00:07:55,480
Speaker 2: Team B winning would be great for the books.

149
00:07:55,519 --> 00:07:57,839
Speaker 3: We're gonna hear that over and over and over again

150
00:07:57,920 --> 00:08:01,319
over the next couple of days. And Monday rolls around

151
00:08:01,639 --> 00:08:04,199
and this game goes to kickoff, the books are gonna

152
00:08:04,199 --> 00:08:06,519
be real close to fifty to fifty that when you

153
00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:09,240
add in the Veig when you add in the negative

154
00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:12,720
BF teasers, the negative b B parlays, the books are

155
00:08:12,720 --> 00:08:13,319
not gonna.

156
00:08:13,120 --> 00:08:14,160
Speaker 2: Have all that much risk.

157
00:08:14,279 --> 00:08:18,199
Speaker 3: It happens every championship type of game because everyone has

158
00:08:18,199 --> 00:08:22,240
an opinion on it, and more importantly, there's more recreational

159
00:08:22,319 --> 00:08:24,879
money than ever before. Betters that are gonna be getting

160
00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:27,879
down on this game probably didn't watch one Miami game

161
00:08:28,160 --> 00:08:31,319
or one Indiana game all year long. That kind of

162
00:08:31,399 --> 00:08:38,720
unsophisticated money is what will balance out this game when

163
00:08:39,039 --> 00:08:41,919
push comes to shove. The books aren't gonna need much

164
00:08:42,080 --> 00:08:46,559
rest assured. Sure, they're gonna say we prefer maybe Miami

165
00:08:46,840 --> 00:08:49,320
to win out right, or we prefer to game the

166
00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:52,840
state under or over. But I don't think they're gonna

167
00:08:52,879 --> 00:08:55,000
be in a corner where they're like, ah, we really

168
00:08:55,039 --> 00:08:57,799
need to attract risk on the other side. So, yes,

169
00:08:58,039 --> 00:09:01,320
the early money's on Indiana. Yes, I do think it's

170
00:09:01,600 --> 00:09:05,399
somewhat power rated and out ahead of the market. The

171
00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:08,080
question is gonna be when it gets to ten nine

172
00:09:08,080 --> 00:09:10,519
and a half, do we see the TakeBack? Do we

173
00:09:10,600 --> 00:09:13,759
see those groups that do have the power rated like

174
00:09:13,799 --> 00:09:16,480
I do, close to double digits, But they're looking more

175
00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:19,399
at recency because my number is based on zoom and

176
00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:23,799
out the entire season of the Miami Hurricanes in Indiana, Hoosiers.

177
00:09:24,279 --> 00:09:26,840
Maybe if you narrow down the last three weeks, the

178
00:09:26,879 --> 00:09:29,279
power ratings a little tighter than double digits.

179
00:09:29,399 --> 00:09:31,799
Speaker 2: So that's the question you have to answer.

180
00:09:31,960 --> 00:09:35,960
Speaker 3: Do you believe that Miami's better than their power rating

181
00:09:36,039 --> 00:09:40,200
because of how they've continue to improve weekend and week out,

182
00:09:40,840 --> 00:09:44,360
or are they gonna, you know, regress towards the mean

183
00:09:45,399 --> 00:09:49,799
and not be able to sustain out playing their you

184
00:09:49,840 --> 00:09:52,919
know numbers. So for me, that that that's where the

185
00:09:52,919 --> 00:09:55,440
power ratings stand. That's why I wasn't surprised to see

186
00:09:55,480 --> 00:09:59,080
the move towards Indiana. But I don't think we're gonna

187
00:09:59,080 --> 00:10:02,240
know where the action is until Sunday and Monday, because

188
00:10:02,279 --> 00:10:04,440
that's when the bulk of the money's going to come in.

189
00:10:04,720 --> 00:10:07,960
Eighty percent of the cash hasn't gotten to the window yet,

190
00:10:08,440 --> 00:10:11,000
and when that gets there, then we'll see what this

191
00:10:11,080 --> 00:10:11,639
line does.

192
00:10:12,639 --> 00:10:15,679
Speaker 1: Marco, this is kind of one of those, in my opinion,

193
00:10:15,919 --> 00:10:19,440
offense versus defensive games. Right, you are mentioned the most

194
00:10:19,519 --> 00:10:22,840
recent form of Miami and that has been just a

195
00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:25,879
smash mouth defense. And I don't want to take away

196
00:10:25,919 --> 00:10:29,639
from it Corey Heatherman has been doing with this team.

197
00:10:29,919 --> 00:10:34,039
On the other end, Indiana has been forcing turnovers this

198
00:10:34,279 --> 00:10:38,919
entire college football playoff and blowing teams out by margin.

199
00:10:39,320 --> 00:10:41,080
One thing that I didn't realize until I read the

200
00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:45,960
goalcheat this morning, Corey Heatherman was Signetti's defensive coordinator at

201
00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:48,440
James Madison for the last three years. I find that

202
00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:51,240
very intriguing, not that it matters to the line, but

203
00:10:51,559 --> 00:10:56,559
just that maybe Signetti knows what Heatherman has up his sleeve,

204
00:10:56,639 --> 00:10:57,159
if you will.

205
00:10:57,480 --> 00:10:58,240
Speaker 2: Let's talk about this.

206
00:10:58,279 --> 00:11:00,919
Speaker 1: Miami defense has been allowing four point eight points in

207
00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:05,919
the first half of the season and the first two possessions. Right,

208
00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:08,720
let's see kind of how they've started to do. Whether

209
00:11:08,759 --> 00:11:12,320
it was in College station in the fiestaval right, this

210
00:11:12,399 --> 00:11:17,679
team has been on the road. Now they're essentially at home. Right,

211
00:11:17,759 --> 00:11:21,240
this is a home game for the Hurricanes. Break down

212
00:11:21,480 --> 00:11:25,039
this one for us from a side or total perspective.

213
00:11:25,840 --> 00:11:28,600
Speaker 4: Well, Kelly, go back to the defensive coordinator. It works

214
00:11:28,639 --> 00:11:31,799
both ways. Yeah, Kurt Signetti, you know, has an idea

215
00:11:32,159 --> 00:11:34,960
and maybe what to prepare for against the defense. But

216
00:11:35,000 --> 00:11:39,639
on Saint Token, the defensive coordinator knows what to prepare

217
00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:43,440
for what Signetti likes to run offensively. To me, when

218
00:11:43,480 --> 00:11:46,320
you talk about it comes down to offense versus defense

219
00:11:46,720 --> 00:11:49,240
and so forth, I think where the key matchup is.

220
00:11:49,399 --> 00:11:52,039
It all comes down to Carson Beck. And this is

221
00:11:52,399 --> 00:11:55,879
what I'm talking about. What Miami wants to do and

222
00:11:55,919 --> 00:11:59,960
what they have done in every one of the playoffs

223
00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:04,120
games until the second half of the Mississippi game last week,

224
00:12:04,519 --> 00:12:08,360
is Carson Beck was just a game manager. Okay. They

225
00:12:08,399 --> 00:12:11,840
relied on the defense, They played field position, and the

226
00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:16,279
defense carried him because they were either always leading or

227
00:12:16,399 --> 00:12:19,120
it was tie or it was a you know, a

228
00:12:19,159 --> 00:12:24,399
one possession game. But because Mississippi and part of it happened.

229
00:12:24,559 --> 00:12:27,080
You know, Miami had a couple of injuries during the

230
00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:29,639
course of the game on defense that hurt them as well.

231
00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:34,600
Mississippi started to move the football and you saw that

232
00:12:34,879 --> 00:12:38,080
when we went into that matchup, that was the same story.

233
00:12:38,159 --> 00:12:41,480
It was going to be the Miami offense or defense

234
00:12:41,559 --> 00:12:43,440
versus the Mississippi offense.

235
00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:45,039
Speaker 2: Well, the first.

236
00:12:44,720 --> 00:12:48,799
Speaker 4: Half, Miami was winning that battle, but Mississippi got in

237
00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:50,799
a rhythm. Then when they started to go a little

238
00:12:50,799 --> 00:12:53,480
more up tempo, you started to see the Miami players

239
00:12:53,759 --> 00:12:58,000
the defense was starting to wear down. What had to happen. Well,

240
00:12:58,440 --> 00:13:01,200
Chrystal Ball give them credit. We give him a lot

241
00:13:01,200 --> 00:13:03,879
of flack over the course of the season, and a

242
00:13:03,879 --> 00:13:07,399
lot of it justified. He took the reins off Carson Beck.

243
00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:10,159
He didn't let him just be a game manager. Carson

244
00:13:10,159 --> 00:13:13,159
Beck had to make plays, and to his credit, he

245
00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:17,759
made those plays. But when you compare the plays he made,

246
00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:22,519
that was versus a Mississippi defense, not the Indiana defense.

247
00:13:22,759 --> 00:13:27,399
This Indiana defense has been nail's all season long. I

248
00:13:27,519 --> 00:13:33,440
don't see that happening if Miami has trouble stopping Indiana,

249
00:13:33,679 --> 00:13:37,320
which everybody has so far in the playoffs. And one

250
00:13:37,320 --> 00:13:40,080
of the reasons is it comes down to everybody has

251
00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:42,720
a game plan. Okay, you prepare and you think you

252
00:13:42,799 --> 00:13:44,960
have a great game plan, but you know what has

253
00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:48,600
to still happen execution. How many times do you hear

254
00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:54,279
coaches postgame say, hey, we just didn't execute today. Well,

255
00:13:54,879 --> 00:13:57,679
that's one thing Indiana strives on. This team is a

256
00:13:57,720 --> 00:14:01,159
well oiled machine. And that goes to Kirk Signetti. It

257
00:14:01,159 --> 00:14:03,600
goes to that, you know, you see that fire in

258
00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:07,399
his eyes, that death scare that he has the entire

259
00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:10,240
game until the clock, you know, hits zero's. I mean

260
00:14:10,240 --> 00:14:12,759
he finally maybe gives you half a smile in the

261
00:14:12,799 --> 00:14:15,480
final minute. Even though this team has been blowing out

262
00:14:15,519 --> 00:14:18,840
the other teams, I don't see Miami being able to

263
00:14:18,879 --> 00:14:22,879
make enough stops against this Indiana d offense that they

264
00:14:22,879 --> 00:14:25,360
don't have to open things up for Carson Beck. And

265
00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:28,759
I'm just not sold on Carson Beck to be able

266
00:14:29,039 --> 00:14:34,000
to have to win a game against Fernando Mendoza if

267
00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:35,600
they got to go head to head and make it

268
00:14:35,639 --> 00:14:39,000
an offensive game. That's why I leaned Indiana in this one.

269
00:14:40,039 --> 00:14:42,919
I think it's a huge coaching edge in it just

270
00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:45,000
because of the execution and what did you see in

271
00:14:45,039 --> 00:14:47,840
the Miami game. The other thing that was a trait

272
00:14:47,960 --> 00:14:51,799
of Miami for years. They're not disciplined. How many stupid

273
00:14:51,840 --> 00:14:56,759
penalties did they make that helped Mississippi continue drives. You

274
00:14:56,919 --> 00:14:59,960
give Indiana second chances or a break, it's going to

275
00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:02,159
to be lights out. And I'm gonna go with the

276
00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:05,360
better team in this one, and to me, that is Indiana.

277
00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:09,960
Speaker 1: Okay, VR, your first question before you break down this

278
00:15:10,039 --> 00:15:13,879
game is do I Okay, let's just say this so

279
00:15:13,879 --> 00:15:16,720
I have one, two, three, four teasers. I'll let you

280
00:15:16,720 --> 00:15:20,759
guys do the math on Indiana. Granted, two of the

281
00:15:20,799 --> 00:15:23,000
legs are closed, the other two have to be played

282
00:15:23,039 --> 00:15:27,159
Saturday and Sunday this week. But hypothetically, let's say that

283
00:15:27,320 --> 00:15:30,399
I have four teasers that only need Indiana minus one

284
00:15:30,399 --> 00:15:33,919
and a half leading up to the National Championship Game,

285
00:15:34,279 --> 00:15:36,360
and let's just say this goes out of the teaser protection,

286
00:15:36,399 --> 00:15:38,320
and let's say it's nine and a half not ten

287
00:15:38,559 --> 00:15:41,840
nine and a half at close? Do I come back

288
00:15:42,159 --> 00:15:45,879
with some money on Miami? Or did I do my job?

289
00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:49,720
I just need Indiana to essentially win the game. What

290
00:15:49,759 --> 00:15:52,240
are your opinions here? So if anybody else out there

291
00:15:52,279 --> 00:15:54,600
decided to be a complete, utter degenerate like myself and

292
00:15:54,639 --> 00:15:58,000
tease the National Championship Game with a bunch of NFL, I.

293
00:15:57,919 --> 00:16:00,320
Speaker 3: Don't think it's a bad move that you placed having

294
00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:03,320
those teasers open. You now have Indiana down at one

295
00:16:03,399 --> 00:16:05,080
and a half or two and a half, and they're

296
00:16:05,080 --> 00:16:07,639
probably going to go off close to a double digit favorite,

297
00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:11,679
So you're in a very advantageous position. Sometimes you place,

298
00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:14,000
you make a negative ev move and you find yourself

299
00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:15,519
on the positive eb side.

300
00:16:15,679 --> 00:16:18,759
Speaker 2: So don't worry about that. Just cash this ticket. That's

301
00:16:18,799 --> 00:16:19,399
what matters.

302
00:16:19,519 --> 00:16:22,039
Speaker 3: Now, here's what I would do if I liked Indiana

303
00:16:22,120 --> 00:16:23,960
in this game. Calf I was like, I would bet

304
00:16:23,960 --> 00:16:26,159
Indiana even at minus seven and a half, even at

305
00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:26,840
minus eight and a.

306
00:16:26,799 --> 00:16:29,039
Speaker 2: Half, then I would let it go.

307
00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:32,679
Speaker 3: I would stick with my teaser and be comfortable that

308
00:16:32,759 --> 00:16:34,159
I got the best of it. Now they got to

309
00:16:34,200 --> 00:16:37,120
go out there and do their job. Otherwise, if I

310
00:16:37,279 --> 00:16:40,600
like Miami, then it's automatic. I'm going to try to

311
00:16:42,080 --> 00:16:44,720
hit that middle and maybe even put more on the

312
00:16:44,759 --> 00:16:50,320
Miami side because I limited that risk by having the

313
00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:52,440
Indiana side down at one and a half or two

314
00:16:52,519 --> 00:16:55,200
and a half depending on the teaser. So if you

315
00:16:55,279 --> 00:16:58,480
like Miami, I would even put more on Miami near clothes.

316
00:16:58,519 --> 00:17:00,320
If this gets up to that double digit, I would

317
00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:02,519
buy that half a point actually at nine and a

318
00:17:02,559 --> 00:17:04,839
half to ten, up to about minus one twenty one,

319
00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:06,480
twenty two to try.

320
00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:08,880
Speaker 2: To hit that middle. If I had no opinion, if

321
00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:09,400
I said.

322
00:17:09,240 --> 00:17:11,839
Speaker 3: I was just trying to place good bets, then I

323
00:17:11,880 --> 00:17:14,240
would automatically look for the middle.

324
00:17:14,400 --> 00:17:16,720
Speaker 2: Because you look at a total that opened at about

325
00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:17,319
forty eight.

326
00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:19,559
Speaker 3: And a half and is down down the forty seven

327
00:17:20,160 --> 00:17:23,200
and that's with a ton of recency bias towards the over.

328
00:17:23,599 --> 00:17:25,880
You have two teams that are coming off two very

329
00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:29,359
high scoring games. Even for Miami. In the last game,

330
00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:32,200
Miami put up thirty one, they allow twenty seven, So

331
00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:34,599
that's fifty eight points for Miami.

332
00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:35,200
Speaker 2: That's a lot.

333
00:17:35,519 --> 00:17:39,720
Speaker 3: Indiana they put up fifty six, thirty eight. They've only

334
00:17:39,799 --> 00:17:42,279
thirteen against Ohio State, but that's Ohio State. Prior to that,

335
00:17:42,279 --> 00:17:44,799
they were putting up fifty six thirty one thirty something.

336
00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:48,440
So for this to be going towards the under, even

337
00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:52,000
though we know that public money's gonna outweigh wise guy

338
00:17:52,079 --> 00:17:55,079
money kel and they know the over is going to

339
00:17:55,160 --> 00:17:57,240
be the risk that the books have when this game

340
00:17:57,319 --> 00:17:59,599
kicks off, they're going to need the wise guys to

341
00:17:59,599 --> 00:18:04,559
be right on this under. I think with the low

342
00:18:04,599 --> 00:18:09,079
scoring expectations, I would look to bet that middle. I

343
00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:13,119
really would. Again, I'd lean the Indiana side based on

344
00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:15,640
power ratings, but I think once to get up to

345
00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:17,519
that nine and a half, if I could get ten,

346
00:18:17,759 --> 00:18:19,559
have minus two and a half plus ten with a

347
00:18:19,599 --> 00:18:22,839
total forty seven, I'm hoping they land in the middle,

348
00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:25,680
and yeah, that's what I would go at least for

349
00:18:25,759 --> 00:18:28,039
two of those teasers, I would look to go for

350
00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:28,559
the score.

351
00:18:28,839 --> 00:18:29,960
Speaker 2: I'd get a little greedy.

352
00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:33,200
Speaker 1: That's the end of the season. Well, I think I

353
00:18:33,200 --> 00:18:35,079
think you're right. I think I might try to go

354
00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:39,000
for that middle if you will, Marco, let me know

355
00:18:39,039 --> 00:18:41,200
what you got going on over at wager talk dot

356
00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:42,480
com before we get out of here.

357
00:18:43,039 --> 00:18:45,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, Kelly, I'm just gonna ask you one question. How

358
00:18:45,440 --> 00:18:48,920
many times have you played a teaser this year? Whether

359
00:18:49,079 --> 00:18:51,440
you had an opinion on the game or not, but

360
00:18:51,559 --> 00:18:54,319
because of the number, it was the play to make.

361
00:18:55,559 --> 00:19:00,000
Speaker 1: Oh WoT okay, it has been a great here and

362
00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:03,480
absolute electric NFL teaser you're in fact outside of like

363
00:19:03,559 --> 00:19:06,200
I can think of three games. Like I said, the

364
00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:09,559
Steelers was never a teaser play. I kind of was like,

365
00:19:10,200 --> 00:19:12,880
I'm getting the Steelers plus nine here at home, and

366
00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:15,960
again it was just it was kind of, as I said,

367
00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:18,200
it kind of a degenerate move, like it wasn't something

368
00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:20,440
I should have made, but I wanted a little action

369
00:19:20,519 --> 00:19:21,759
on the game, and I said, oh, I'll just put

370
00:19:21,799 --> 00:19:23,559
them in a teaser with Indiana. That gets me down

371
00:19:23,599 --> 00:19:24,480
more Indiana money.

372
00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:26,680
Speaker 2: It was the wrong move and it costs.

373
00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:30,200
Speaker 4: Me, But you answered your own question if you made

374
00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:35,400
teaser plays because the numbers said that's the correct play.

375
00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:38,279
VR gave you the answer, if you can get a

376
00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:41,920
ten in this game, the right answer is you bet Miami.

377
00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:45,640
You have to bet Miami because you've got the best

378
00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:48,279
of both ends of the spectrum in this it's a

379
00:19:48,319 --> 00:19:53,039
plus ev move. It's you know, no emotion, keep it

380
00:19:53,079 --> 00:19:56,559
like VR said, whatever your personal opinion is on the game,

381
00:19:56,799 --> 00:19:59,359
that's the side you hold more money on, so that

382
00:19:59,799 --> 00:20:02,039
you're you are playing for a profit, but you have

383
00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:05,039
the opportunity if you're wrong and it lands in the middle,

384
00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:08,200
you take both home and it's a great score. So

385
00:20:08,519 --> 00:20:11,160
that's the smart way to play the game. Now, as

386
00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:13,799
far as what's going on over a wager Talk, couple things.

387
00:20:14,039 --> 00:20:16,079
First of all, we got the special that we ran

388
00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:19,200
last week. Tremendous response to it, and why not. You

389
00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:21,400
can pick up seven days for the price of three

390
00:20:22,839 --> 00:20:25,759
sixty nine dollars, get you seven days all access your

391
00:20:25,759 --> 00:20:30,079
favorite kapp er. Check out you know, VR, myself, anybody

392
00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:34,920
at wager Talk. You'll get everything football, basketball, hockey, everything

393
00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:37,720
that's going on right now, which everything is. It's a

394
00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:39,960
great time of the year, so check that out for

395
00:20:40,039 --> 00:20:44,839
sixty nine dollars. Me personally reminder you guys great. I

396
00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:49,240
want to thank you for all of the responses and

397
00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:52,480
support you've gone with me for the entire year with

398
00:20:52,519 --> 00:20:57,200
Marco's Deli. Well, good news. We did a test Marco's

399
00:20:57,240 --> 00:21:01,799
Delhi last week where we're incorporating basketball in the show.

400
00:21:01,839 --> 00:21:05,440
Will come out on Fridays for we'll look at some

401
00:21:05,519 --> 00:21:09,039
Saturday games and because I have to take the show

402
00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:12,400
early before we actually have the opening lines out, what

403
00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:15,319
I'm gonna do is give you the games, give you

404
00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:18,839
the situations, and then I come back in late Friday

405
00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:22,359
night early Saturday morning. I'll have that post pinned for

406
00:21:22,519 --> 00:21:25,599
you guys and say, hey, the game did hit the

407
00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:28,480
line parameters that I wanted. This is a play and

408
00:21:28,559 --> 00:21:31,160
go for it. Last week two and zero on the

409
00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:34,799
opening Marco's Deli with basketball. We did lose the football play,

410
00:21:35,079 --> 00:21:38,240
but two and one on Marco's Deli last week to

411
00:21:38,319 --> 00:21:41,680
keep that winning train rolling along. Now forty eight and

412
00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:45,319
thirty four on the Deli with those free plays, so

413
00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:47,000
check that out this coming Friday.

414
00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:50,920
Speaker 1: These specially segments have been absolute and utter gold. If

415
00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:53,480
you guys are looking for Ralph's TNA. You guys can

416
00:21:53,519 --> 00:21:56,240
also find that over on the Wager Talking YouTube channel.

417
00:21:56,279 --> 00:21:58,400
If you guys are looking for the steam Room, the

418
00:21:58,599 --> 00:22:00,920
R is gonna start pivoting here soon. VR. Let everybody

419
00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:03,039
know what's going on for football season with the steam Room.

420
00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:05,359
What you're going to be doing for college basketball season.

421
00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:08,079
Speaker 3: Yeah, We're going to continue Sunday through Super Bowl because

422
00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:10,559
I want to be there for you for conference championships

423
00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:13,359
and Super Bowl Sunday where we get so many prompts

424
00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:16,960
and a lot of live action. Then after the Super Bowl,

425
00:22:17,039 --> 00:22:20,000
we will move the steam Room to Saturdays. That's where

426
00:22:20,039 --> 00:22:23,279
the busiest time is where we have all those college

427
00:22:23,279 --> 00:22:25,759
basketball games. And I'm probably going to be going ninety

428
00:22:25,799 --> 00:22:28,759
minutes two hours longer than we did for the NFL

429
00:22:28,799 --> 00:22:31,400
because we went up until kick all. We don't have

430
00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:34,200
that problem with college basketball. So I'll answer as many

431
00:22:34,279 --> 00:22:36,839
questions as you have. We'll sit there as long as

432
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:40,240
we need to accomplish our goal of turning in a

433
00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:42,599
winning day and more importantly, a winning twenty twenty six.

434
00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:45,359
So weekend after the Super Bowl, we will be having

435
00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:49,960
steam Rooms on Saturday, college basketball, live action, all that

436
00:22:50,039 --> 00:22:52,640
good stuff. And of course I'm locked and loaded for

437
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:56,640
this weekend. We got a lot of matchups to take

438
00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:59,279
advantage of it. I got buried in NFL last Sunday,

439
00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:01,359
had a really good Saturday going for one, but I

440
00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:03,039
got crushed on Sunday.

441
00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:05,640
Speaker 2: That means a big weeks ahead, so I'm excited about

442
00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:06,160
this weekend.

443
00:23:06,519 --> 00:23:08,519
Speaker 1: A big week is ahead. You guys can catch VR

444
00:23:08,599 --> 00:23:12,200
with me on Saturday on Last Call for some college

445
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:15,119
basketball as well as Saturday NFL, and of course you

446
00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:18,759
can catch him on Sunday. Maybe I'll make Marco DiAngelo

447
00:23:18,799 --> 00:23:21,559
do Sunday as well, just for funsies. I don't know.

448
00:23:21,599 --> 00:23:23,480
I haven't asked him his schedule. He's a busy guy.

449
00:23:23,559 --> 00:23:25,440
But I always love when I get the bet on

450
00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:28,920
It crew over there for NFL Sunday. Again, thank you

451
00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:31,519
guys for hanging out with us all college football feason long.

452
00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:34,440
I hope you guys had some fun and most importantly,

453
00:23:34,839 --> 00:23:38,519
made some money Until next football season, Let's bet on

454
00:23:38,599 --> 00:23:38,759
it

