Speaker 1: The Miami Hurricanes taking on the Indiana Hoosiers. The National
Championship edition of bet on It is up next. Kelly
Stewart here, Marco DiAngelo, Yanni the Greek, And before we
get into this year's college football National Championship Game, I
just wanted to say thank you to all of our
loyal listeners, commenters, Bears, haters, Miami Hurricane haters, all of
the above. Okay, all jokes aside. We love you guys,
and we appreciate every single one of you for hanging
out with us every single week during the college football season.
Here on bet on It, We're gonna get right into
this National Championship game.
Speaker 2: We're in your little roundtable style.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go first, Marco is gonna cover his head
with the paper bag, and VR is going to just
walk out of the room when I say what I
did in this one. Currently, Miami is an eight and
a half point underdog. Forty seven and a half is
the total. And I do a little show called Kelly
and Murray. And when we were sitting there doing the
show last week before either of these teams won, I said,
what's Miami Indiana? John Murray says, uh, I said six
and a half. He goes, oh, no, no, not that high,
not that high, And here we are it's eight and
a half. And then I texted this morning. I said, John, Mary,
I thought you said it wouldn't be this high, and
he goes, what do you want from me?
Speaker 3: Kid?
Speaker 1: Everyone is betting Indiana, and frankly, I don't blame them.
This was a team that we talked about went from
the hunter as a big underdog to the hunted.
Speaker 2: Now for the part where the.
Speaker 1: Guys are gonna look at me and discussed when this
one's was seven and a half. I teased it with
the Bears and the Bills last weekend of the Wild's
Card round, and then on Monday night I teased it
with these Steelers womp womp. That was really really stupid
and minus ev on my part. So you guys can
tell me what an idiot you think I am in
the comment section. But this week I did tease it
with the Broncos up over that touchdown and the Seahawks
down below that field goal. Now for the disdain from
my coworkers, what are your his thoughts on this game?
We're gonna break it down just a little bit further
Marco D'Angelo. First, are you are you putting the cone
of shame on me?
Speaker 4: No, Kelly, Actually it's funny the way you said that
with you know what you talked with John Murray, Because
when that game was being played last week and we were,
you know, the final minutes, I texted one of my
buddies and said, what do you make the line on
the National Championship game? His answer was six and a
half like yours. Mine was eight and a half. And
he says, you're crazy, it's not gonna be that high,
and I said, remember the point. The line the books
are going to come out with is not a power rating.
This team is this many points x better than the other.
It is what the public perception is gonna be to
try to get the equal betted. And I knew it
was gonna be at least seven and a half. But Kelly,
I know you're not supposed to tease college plays, but
sometimes you're gonna do that, and I've done it a
handful of times in my career as well. I said,
the public is going to tees Indiana in this game.
The books are gonna treat it just like an NFL game,
and they're gonna go to the taser blocker, hence the
number of getting this number at eight and a half,
and it's probably gonna push to nine. That's the way
I read it, and that's why I said eight and
a half.
Speaker 1: Very very interesting.
Speaker 2: VR.
Speaker 1: There's lots of comments every single week about your power ratings.
Break down each of these two from a power ratings
perspective before we break down the game itself.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and listen, nothing is perfect, but the bottom line
is numbers do not line, and my power ratings have
absolutely zero bias. They're not gonna be one hundred percent
because even if the power rating is on point, there's
still a lot of randomness that could play out on
a football field over sixty minutes. But I still trust
the numbers because they produced profit which had me finish
in number one at wager Talk and our ROI was
in double digits. So I trust my numbers a lot.
Here's what we're looking at at this game, truth.
Speaker 2: Be told, power rating wise.
Speaker 3: This line's too short because straight power rating no narrative
at all. Pretend we didn't watch last week's games and
we were just looking at the data. Offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency,
special teams, strength of schedule, all of that in the mix,
point scored, points allowed, point differential, all the things that matter.
Indiana is a double digit favorite over Miami. And that's
coming from someone who actually thinks Miami is higher ranked
than what the AP has because right now Miami is
ranked tenth in the AP, Indiana number one. My rankings
have Miami seventh in our ratings and Indiana number one,
and yet Indiana should still be about a ten to
ten and a half point favorite. And the bottom line
is this. It's simply because they have the number one
offense inefficiency and the number two defense, so there's balanced
as you're gonna get. And they did this with the
number six strength of schedule, so they arguably had one
of the toughest strength of schedules on the planet, and
they finished the year number one and two.
Speaker 2: In offensive defense.
Speaker 3: You can't take anything away from this Indiana team. Now, Miami,
they've been a little harder to power rate because they
continue to outperform their expectations. And a team can only
do that for so long. It's unsustainable long term. But
we're not talking long term. We just need to do
it over ten, eleven, twelve games in college football. That's
where the difference is because on paper, Miami's barely a
top twenty offensive team and they are at a top
five defensive team, but that's barely a top twenty schedule.
So they've had a much easier schedule than Indiana. And
I think that defense, although is impressive, I don't think
it's as impressive as we're making it out to be. Now,
this isn't me telling you I love Indiana. This is
me telling you power rating wise, this is where the
numbers should be about Indiana minus ten, ten and a half.
And I won't be surprised to see the teaser protection
go up through nine because this is that type of
game where I think even a lot of sharp betters
will tease it if it falls near that wongable numbers.
We did so last year in the National Championship or
the year before, I believe, but we did move a
teaser in college football in the National Championship just like this,
and I think that's why, like Marco touched on, don't
be surprised to see those nines and nine and a
halfs pop up, especially at the sharpest book that offer
fair teasers.
Speaker 2: If you're charging one thirty five for a teaser. It
doesn't matter.
Speaker 3: You don't need to protect anything. They're already taking the
worst of it. But those ones that give fair teaser
ons pay attention. If they go to nine nine and
a half, that's exactly what they're doing. I don't think, Kelly,
you're gonna get one sided action. So let me be
real quick with the market update. Here's the bottom line.
This happens every Super Bowl, every national championship because we
have just about two weeks to prepare, sometimes one week.
But the early money comes in on Team AY, and
that money continues to come in on Team A because
that's the way the line's moving. Anyone that likes Team
B isn't stepp into the window yet why, because the
line's moving towards Team A. At about the midway point,
the books are gonna start complaining that everyone's on Team A,
we need Team B.
Speaker 2: Team B winning would be great for the books.
Speaker 3: We're gonna hear that over and over and over again
over the next couple of days. And Monday rolls around
and this game goes to kickoff, the books are gonna
be real close to fifty to fifty that when you
add in the Veig when you add in the negative
BF teasers, the negative b B parlays, the books are
not gonna.
Speaker 2: Have all that much risk.
Speaker 3: It happens every championship type of game because everyone has
an opinion on it, and more importantly, there's more recreational
money than ever before. Betters that are gonna be getting
down on this game probably didn't watch one Miami game
or one Indiana game all year long. That kind of
unsophisticated money is what will balance out this game when
push comes to shove. The books aren't gonna need much
rest assured. Sure, they're gonna say we prefer maybe Miami
to win out right, or we prefer to game the
state under or over. But I don't think they're gonna
be in a corner where they're like, ah, we really
need to attract risk on the other side. So, yes,
the early money's on Indiana. Yes, I do think it's
somewhat power rated and out ahead of the market. The
question is gonna be when it gets to ten nine
and a half, do we see the TakeBack? Do we
see those groups that do have the power rated like
I do, close to double digits, But they're looking more
at recency because my number is based on zoom and
out the entire season of the Miami Hurricanes in Indiana, Hoosiers.
Maybe if you narrow down the last three weeks, the
power ratings a little tighter than double digits.
Speaker 2: So that's the question you have to answer.
Speaker 3: Do you believe that Miami's better than their power rating
because of how they've continue to improve weekend and week out,
or are they gonna, you know, regress towards the mean
and not be able to sustain out playing their you
know numbers. So for me, that that that's where the
power ratings stand. That's why I wasn't surprised to see
the move towards Indiana. But I don't think we're gonna
know where the action is until Sunday and Monday, because
that's when the bulk of the money's going to come in.
Eighty percent of the cash hasn't gotten to the window yet,
and when that gets there, then we'll see what this
line does.
Speaker 1: Marco, this is kind of one of those, in my opinion,
offense versus defensive games. Right, you are mentioned the most
recent form of Miami and that has been just a
smash mouth defense. And I don't want to take away
from it Corey Heatherman has been doing with this team.
On the other end, Indiana has been forcing turnovers this
entire college football playoff and blowing teams out by margin.
One thing that I didn't realize until I read the
goalcheat this morning, Corey Heatherman was Signetti's defensive coordinator at
James Madison for the last three years. I find that
very intriguing, not that it matters to the line, but
just that maybe Signetti knows what Heatherman has up his sleeve,
if you will.
Speaker 2: Let's talk about this.
Speaker 1: Miami defense has been allowing four point eight points in
the first half of the season and the first two possessions. Right,
let's see kind of how they've started to do. Whether
it was in College station in the fiestaval right, this
team has been on the road. Now they're essentially at home. Right,
this is a home game for the Hurricanes. Break down
this one for us from a side or total perspective.
Speaker 4: Well, Kelly, go back to the defensive coordinator. It works
both ways. Yeah, Kurt Signetti, you know, has an idea
and maybe what to prepare for against the defense. But
on Saint Token, the defensive coordinator knows what to prepare
for what Signetti likes to run offensively. To me, when
you talk about it comes down to offense versus defense
and so forth, I think where the key matchup is.
It all comes down to Carson Beck. And this is
what I'm talking about. What Miami wants to do and
what they have done in every one of the playoffs
games until the second half of the Mississippi game last week,
is Carson Beck was just a game manager. Okay. They
relied on the defense, They played field position, and the
defense carried him because they were either always leading or
it was tie or it was a you know, a
one possession game. But because Mississippi and part of it happened.
You know, Miami had a couple of injuries during the
course of the game on defense that hurt them as well.
Mississippi started to move the football and you saw that
when we went into that matchup, that was the same story.
It was going to be the Miami offense or defense
versus the Mississippi offense.
Speaker 2: Well, the first.
Speaker 4: Half, Miami was winning that battle, but Mississippi got in
a rhythm. Then when they started to go a little
more up tempo, you started to see the Miami players
the defense was starting to wear down. What had to happen. Well,
Chrystal Ball give them credit. We give him a lot
of flack over the course of the season, and a
lot of it justified. He took the reins off Carson Beck.
He didn't let him just be a game manager. Carson
Beck had to make plays, and to his credit, he
made those plays. But when you compare the plays he made,
that was versus a Mississippi defense, not the Indiana defense.
This Indiana defense has been nail's all season long. I
don't see that happening if Miami has trouble stopping Indiana,
which everybody has so far in the playoffs. And one
of the reasons is it comes down to everybody has
a game plan. Okay, you prepare and you think you
have a great game plan, but you know what has
to still happen execution. How many times do you hear
coaches postgame say, hey, we just didn't execute today. Well,
that's one thing Indiana strives on. This team is a
well oiled machine. And that goes to Kirk Signetti. It
goes to that, you know, you see that fire in
his eyes, that death scare that he has the entire
game until the clock, you know, hits zero's. I mean
he finally maybe gives you half a smile in the
final minute. Even though this team has been blowing out
the other teams, I don't see Miami being able to
make enough stops against this Indiana d offense that they
don't have to open things up for Carson Beck. And
I'm just not sold on Carson Beck to be able
to have to win a game against Fernando Mendoza if
they got to go head to head and make it
an offensive game. That's why I leaned Indiana in this one.
I think it's a huge coaching edge in it just
because of the execution and what did you see in
the Miami game. The other thing that was a trait
of Miami for years. They're not disciplined. How many stupid
penalties did they make that helped Mississippi continue drives. You
give Indiana second chances or a break, it's going to
to be lights out. And I'm gonna go with the
better team in this one, and to me, that is Indiana.
Speaker 1: Okay, VR, your first question before you break down this
game is do I Okay, let's just say this so
I have one, two, three, four teasers. I'll let you
guys do the math on Indiana. Granted, two of the
legs are closed, the other two have to be played
Saturday and Sunday this week. But hypothetically, let's say that
I have four teasers that only need Indiana minus one
and a half leading up to the National Championship Game,
and let's just say this goes out of the teaser protection,
and let's say it's nine and a half not ten
nine and a half at close? Do I come back
with some money on Miami? Or did I do my job?
I just need Indiana to essentially win the game. What
are your opinions here? So if anybody else out there
decided to be a complete, utter degenerate like myself and
tease the National Championship Game with a bunch of NFL, I.
Speaker 3: Don't think it's a bad move that you placed having
those teasers open. You now have Indiana down at one
and a half or two and a half, and they're
probably going to go off close to a double digit favorite,
So you're in a very advantageous position. Sometimes you place,
you make a negative ev move and you find yourself
on the positive eb side.
Speaker 2: So don't worry about that. Just cash this ticket. That's
what matters.
Speaker 3: Now, here's what I would do if I liked Indiana
in this game. Calf I was like, I would bet
Indiana even at minus seven and a half, even at
minus eight and a.
Speaker 2: Half, then I would let it go.
Speaker 3: I would stick with my teaser and be comfortable that
I got the best of it. Now they got to
go out there and do their job. Otherwise, if I
like Miami, then it's automatic. I'm going to try to
hit that middle and maybe even put more on the
Miami side because I limited that risk by having the
Indiana side down at one and a half or two
and a half depending on the teaser. So if you
like Miami, I would even put more on Miami near clothes.
If this gets up to that double digit, I would
buy that half a point actually at nine and a
half to ten, up to about minus one twenty one,
twenty two to try.
Speaker 2: To hit that middle. If I had no opinion, if
I said.
Speaker 3: I was just trying to place good bets, then I
would automatically look for the middle.
Speaker 2: Because you look at a total that opened at about
forty eight.
Speaker 3: And a half and is down down the forty seven
and that's with a ton of recency bias towards the over.
You have two teams that are coming off two very
high scoring games. Even for Miami. In the last game,
Miami put up thirty one, they allow twenty seven, So
that's fifty eight points for Miami.
Speaker 2: That's a lot.
Speaker 3: Indiana they put up fifty six, thirty eight. They've only
thirteen against Ohio State, but that's Ohio State. Prior to that,
they were putting up fifty six thirty one thirty something.
So for this to be going towards the under, even
though we know that public money's gonna outweigh wise guy
money kel and they know the over is going to
be the risk that the books have when this game
kicks off, they're going to need the wise guys to
be right on this under. I think with the low
scoring expectations, I would look to bet that middle. I
really would. Again, I'd lean the Indiana side based on
power ratings, but I think once to get up to
that nine and a half, if I could get ten,
have minus two and a half plus ten with a
total forty seven, I'm hoping they land in the middle,
and yeah, that's what I would go at least for
two of those teasers, I would look to go for
the score.
Speaker 2: I'd get a little greedy.
Speaker 1: That's the end of the season. Well, I think I
think you're right. I think I might try to go
for that middle if you will, Marco, let me know
what you got going on over at wager talk dot
com before we get out of here.
Speaker 4: Yeah, Kelly, I'm just gonna ask you one question. How
many times have you played a teaser this year? Whether
you had an opinion on the game or not, but
because of the number, it was the play to make.
Speaker 1: Oh WoT okay, it has been a great here and
absolute electric NFL teaser you're in fact outside of like
I can think of three games. Like I said, the
Steelers was never a teaser play. I kind of was like,
I'm getting the Steelers plus nine here at home, and
again it was just it was kind of, as I said,
it kind of a degenerate move, like it wasn't something
I should have made, but I wanted a little action
on the game, and I said, oh, I'll just put
them in a teaser with Indiana. That gets me down
more Indiana money.
Speaker 2: It was the wrong move and it costs.
Speaker 4: Me, But you answered your own question if you made
teaser plays because the numbers said that's the correct play.
VR gave you the answer, if you can get a
ten in this game, the right answer is you bet Miami.
You have to bet Miami because you've got the best
of both ends of the spectrum in this it's a
plus ev move. It's you know, no emotion, keep it
like VR said, whatever your personal opinion is on the game,
that's the side you hold more money on, so that
you're you are playing for a profit, but you have
the opportunity if you're wrong and it lands in the middle,
you take both home and it's a great score. So
that's the smart way to play the game. Now, as
far as what's going on over a wager Talk, couple things.
First of all, we got the special that we ran
last week. Tremendous response to it, and why not. You
can pick up seven days for the price of three
sixty nine dollars, get you seven days all access your
favorite kapp er. Check out you know, VR, myself, anybody
at wager Talk. You'll get everything football, basketball, hockey, everything
that's going on right now, which everything is. It's a
great time of the year, so check that out for
sixty nine dollars. Me personally reminder you guys great. I
want to thank you for all of the responses and
support you've gone with me for the entire year with
Marco's Deli. Well, good news. We did a test Marco's
Delhi last week where we're incorporating basketball in the show.
Will come out on Fridays for we'll look at some
Saturday games and because I have to take the show
early before we actually have the opening lines out, what
I'm gonna do is give you the games, give you
the situations, and then I come back in late Friday
night early Saturday morning. I'll have that post pinned for
you guys and say, hey, the game did hit the
line parameters that I wanted. This is a play and
go for it. Last week two and zero on the
opening Marco's Deli with basketball. We did lose the football play,
but two and one on Marco's Deli last week to
keep that winning train rolling along. Now forty eight and
thirty four on the Deli with those free plays, so
check that out this coming Friday.
Speaker 1: These specially segments have been absolute and utter gold. If
you guys are looking for Ralph's TNA. You guys can
also find that over on the Wager Talking YouTube channel.
If you guys are looking for the steam Room, the
R is gonna start pivoting here soon. VR. Let everybody
know what's going on for football season with the steam Room.
What you're going to be doing for college basketball season.
Speaker 3: Yeah, We're going to continue Sunday through Super Bowl because
I want to be there for you for conference championships
and Super Bowl Sunday where we get so many prompts
and a lot of live action. Then after the Super Bowl,
we will move the steam Room to Saturdays. That's where
the busiest time is where we have all those college
basketball games. And I'm probably going to be going ninety
minutes two hours longer than we did for the NFL
because we went up until kick all. We don't have
that problem with college basketball. So I'll answer as many
questions as you have. We'll sit there as long as
we need to accomplish our goal of turning in a
winning day and more importantly, a winning twenty twenty six.
So weekend after the Super Bowl, we will be having
steam Rooms on Saturday, college basketball, live action, all that
good stuff. And of course I'm locked and loaded for
this weekend. We got a lot of matchups to take
advantage of it. I got buried in NFL last Sunday,
had a really good Saturday going for one, but I
got crushed on Sunday.
Speaker 2: That means a big weeks ahead, so I'm excited about
this weekend.
Speaker 1: A big week is ahead. You guys can catch VR
with me on Saturday on Last Call for some college
basketball as well as Saturday NFL, and of course you
can catch him on Sunday. Maybe I'll make Marco DiAngelo
do Sunday as well, just for funsies. I don't know.
I haven't asked him his schedule. He's a busy guy.
But I always love when I get the bet on
It crew over there for NFL Sunday. Again, thank you
guys for hanging out with us all college football feason long.
I hope you guys had some fun and most importantly,
made some money Until next football season, Let's bet on
it