Speaker 1: Allah.
Speaker 2: The super Bowl matchup is finally set. This is the
opening line report. Kelly Stewart here with Teddy covers every
single Monday morning, eleven am Eastern eight am Pacific. Teddy,
let's talk about what we saw yesterday. The kicking for
Losers narrative got obliterated. All I wanted Sean Payton to
do was kick that field goal when he should have
and not when he did that, being said, my Broncos lost,
but they did get me the cover.
Speaker 1: So what we're going to do.
Speaker 3: Obviously, there's two shows for the super Bowl, So this
week's show we're going to talk about the game. Next
week's show we're going to talk about the props, and
as a general thought, both shows we should have time,
plenty of time at the end. If you guys want
to ask questions, please put your questions in the slack
or in the chat. I should say you can put
them in slack, but I won't see him. But if
you put your questions in the chat, we'll do our
best answer as many as we can before this show
is through. When it comes to the Super Bowl Matchip
and Kel I want to start with history. Okay, we're
gonna go through the games are we're gonna go through
where you know what.
Speaker 1: Happened yesterday and all that.
Speaker 3: But I, when you're breaking down the Super Bowl, should
I start with the history?
Speaker 1: So I started with yesterday's games.
Speaker 2: You tell me I want to talk about yesterday's games
because I like, I need like a little mini therapy
session like we do every Monday morning, because I always
like to talk about it with you because what Kelly's
eyes saw might not be what our audience I saw,
what Teddy's eyes might have seen, so right, sometimes our
eyes can fool us in the actual outcome of the game.
What I love about this show is we're talking pure numbers.
We're talking power ratings. We are talking about did this
team accidentally cover or did this team actually win by
a margin even though the final score didn't indicate that.
So I want to start off first with the AFC
Championship and bitch about Sean Payton.
Speaker 3: Okay, And I mean we you know, Dan and I
were talking about it before we came on air. In
terms of New England, they've had an easy run, all right.
I can't think of many easier runs to the Super
Bowl than what the Patriots have just faced. The weather
impacted all three games, and weather yesterday that was not
an expected blizzard, you know.
Speaker 1: That was just something coming off the front range.
Speaker 3: And oh guess what, by the way, you got the
conditions now in Denver that significantly affected the game. And
they had weather in each of the first two games
of their postseason run, so all three games weather was
a factor for New England. So they were battle tested
in those conditions. And of course the Chargers were a
warm weather team in the cold, and the Chargers played poorly.
Their offensive line got abused, and the Texans were a
warm weather team in the cold, and they played poorly,
and their officive line got abused, and CJ Browd J
Shot had a bad game, and Nico Collins didn't play.
And then they faced the Broncos with a quarterback who
hadn't taken a snap in three years, and again the
weather had a huge impact, and again their opponent couldn't
run the football and the offsive line didn't play well.
I mean, New England got to the Super Bowl. They
got twelve first downs. Yesterday they had two passing first downs.
They gained three point two yards per play. Last week
they got thirteen first downs.
Speaker 1: They only got.
Speaker 3: Two of six with their red zone opportunities in the playoffs.
What have the Patriots done? How they got near won?
Their opponents was right. They had one penalty yesterday. Again,
the three playoff games a combined total of six penalties
accepted by New England's opponents. They've been playing clean football.
The defense has forced two to five and two turnovers,
the offense zero three and one. That's a plus five
turnaver margin here in the postseason. Now, Philly had a
plus ten last year in their three games to get
to the Super Bowl, and that didn't affect them negatively
in the big game. But the turner margin is certainly
something to consider here, and that's why the Patriots are here.
They've had the right opponents, they haven't beat themselves with penalties,
and they won the turner battle in every game. Now,
we talk about this defense, and again, Chargers didn't play well,
Texans didn't play well, Broncos didn't play well. Some of
that has to do with the three opponents. We have
to give the Patriots defense all kinds credit. They've given
up twenty six points in three playoff games. The last
time a team allowed fewer points over three playoff games
for a Super Bowl appearance. That would be the two
thousand Ravens, who were you know, Ray Lewis's defense, and
that was a bet on team in the Big Game
as well, not just prior to the Big Game, but
of course, offensively, the Patriots have only scored eighteen points
a game.
Speaker 1: You're in the playoffs.
Speaker 3: That's the fewest by any team to make the Super
Bowl since the nineteen seventy nine Rams with Vince Ferragamo.
Speaker 1: We've got fifteen points a game, you know.
Speaker 3: Steph Diggs afterwards quote, I'll take an ugly win before
I take a pretty loss. Nobody's satisfied, happy, but not complacent.
We're blessed to be where we are, but we know
there's more out there for us.
Speaker 1: And certainly from an offensive standpoint, the Patriots have not
played good offensive football this postseason.
Speaker 3: They may well have a better game than the one
we just saw. Now you talked about Sean Payton and
Peyton after the game regretted his call from the was
a fourth and one from the pay It's fourteen in
the second quarter, chip shot fielder.
Speaker 1: That was before the snow came.
Speaker 3: That was before the weather turned, and at the time
Denver would have been gone up ten to nothing had
they kicked that field goal and it gone in. Of course,
both teams missed field goals, but like the pay, it's
worth noting Pat just missed a couple of field goals yesterday.
Kicker concerns could be an issue, especially when we start
talking about Seattle's special teams.
Speaker 1: But Peyton quote, there's always regrets.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, look I felt here we are fourth
and one, we fall close enough, so yeah, they'll always
be second thoughts.
Speaker 1: Obviously not a lot offense after day.
Speaker 2: I can I interject with that because here's what my
argument is, And again I'm not a football coach, but
I think the play call was worse than the actual
call to go for it. I mean, I'm sitting there
as a progressmen, going what are you guys?
Speaker 1: What was that? No argument conceptually, no argument with you.
Speaker 3: I mean, at the time in the game, before the
weather turned, it didn't seem like being up toose was
going to be a huge deal. As the weather turned
in that game, all of a sudden, any points matter,
you know, So I can get the sense from Peyton
at the time, I didn't think the call was was
in egregious.
Speaker 1: Oh my god, what are you doing here?
Speaker 3: You know, take command of the game. You're at home,
go forward on fourth down. But the execution and that
fourth quarter and the fourth down play call itself was.
Speaker 2: With the with a backup quarterback, and it's like, just
take the easy three points. You mentioned the weather, and
it was kind of weird because we joked about it
here on the show that I'm not a meteorologist, but
it did just come out of nowhere. So that's the
other argument is that, well Peyton should have kicked because
he knew the weather was coming, And I'm like, did
any of us know that weather was coming?
Speaker 3: Nope, the forecast today was there was I've sitting there
going glight over and I think.
Speaker 1: Over could have been more wrong in the game.
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, you had the first touchdown and
then nothing happened the whole rest of the game. And
you know, before halftime, if one of the two field
goals goes through, I'm like, yeah, we got a shot.
You know, we get to seventeen, you know, we're live.
I was at forty two and a half with a
number that I played over, so I'm like, if we
can get to halftime with seventeen, we got a shot
and then it was miss field goal on both ends
before the break, and it's like all right, And then
the weather came the second half and I went back
in a look, I'm like, did I miss something? I
actually had the forecast still up on the and then
zero percent chance of pretipitation.
Speaker 1: So you know, weather's like that.
Speaker 3: Sometimes there are factors that you don't expect, and that's
the nature of what we do. But there was nothing
more impactful in New England's run to the Super Bowl
than having weather conditions in all three games.
Speaker 1: Weather helped them tremendously. Will they read weather in Santa Clara?
I maybe me.
Speaker 2: I already checked the forecast. I'm going to be freezing.
It's going to be in the sixties all next week
when I am in San Francisco. But again, people need
to remember San Francisco and Santa Clara could be just
a million miles apart at times, so keep that in
mind as well when I'm talking about being in San
Francisco for Radio Row is completely different than being in
Santa Clara for the Super Bowl. Teddy final thoughts on
that Broncos Patriots game before we get into Seattle.
Speaker 1: Rams, Yeah, let me run a couple of quotes. Here
it goes. It's the Patriots team. They went four and
thirteen last year.
Speaker 3: They'd given the thirdeam by the way in the Super
Bowl era to win a conference championship by scoring ten
points or left. Buffalo did it in nineteen ninety one
and then lost the Super Bowl. Los Angeles beat Tampa
in nineteen seventy nine, they too lost the Super Bowl.
Of course, raybel won three Super Bowls with the Patriots
and become the first head coach ever if he wins
this game to win the play for a super Bowl
and win a Super Bowl with the team as a
player and a coach. That being said is quote, I
won't win it. It'll be the players that win the game.
I promise you. It won't be me that'll win it.
Speaker 1: But I promise you I'll do everything I can our
staff to have them ready for the game. You know,
when we.
Speaker 3: Talk about Drake May, and obviously May led the NFL
and completion percentage led the NFL in passer rating. He
led the NFL in yards per pass attempt. He had
two huge runs yesterday, you know, the thirty seven yard
run or the one thirty seven yard run in the
wild card raign, but yesterday the twenty eight yard run
that set up the go ahead field goal that ended
up winning the game for New Englands. His feet have
been a huge factor. Turnovers were not an issue. Yes,
of course, may put the ball on the ground and
he's getting the credit for or he's taking the plane
for all six fumbles. But he fumbled six times in
the first two playoff games and lost three of them.
I had a tipball interception against the Chargers, but it's
not a team like Seattle that's had turnover issues all year.
Worth noting how young the Patriots are. Patriots had fifteen
rookies on a Super Bowl team. All eleven draft choices
made the team, and four are undrafted free agents as well.
So it is a very young Super Bowl team, much
younger than Seattle in that regard.
Speaker 2: All right, let's talk about that Seattle team and possibly
Sean McVay electing to go for it on fourth down
as well. Like I said, it was a rough day
for the kicking is for loser's narrative when I thought, Eh, anyway, Teddy,
let's get into it. The Rams did cover the teaser
for me with Indiana, So I'll take it nice, just
game that I didn't have a ton of action on,
didn't really care who won. But watching it was a
lot more exciting than the Broncos Patriots game from a
scoring perspective, of course, because there wasn't really any weather
per se. I mean, it was cold in Seattle, but
not bone chilling cold like we've seen in years prior.
Talk to me about that game, Sean McVay electing not
to kick it, and I kind of understand they were
down four with like six minutes left. Why would you
kick it? Why would you not? I don't know. Break
down that one for me and tell me about the
Seattle offense because my wheels are already turning for the
Super Bowl and we'll get into it here in a minute.
But betting against that Seattle offense, even with this Patriots defense,
a team that doesn't beat themselves. Watching JSN yesterday, I
was like, ooh, I don't oh, I don't know if
I can take the Patriots' defense here, they just might
get obliterated.
Speaker 3: Sure well, I mean Seattle's defense got lit up by
Pooka the whole game. You know, pook at what nine
for one sixty five in a tuddy, but with the
game on the line on that last fourth down, to
attempt from Matthew Staff from the four yard line, no Pooka,
no DeVante. The two incomplete passes were to Mumfield and Ferguson,
which speaks to Seattle's ability and the defensive side of
the football, certainly in the red zone and this game
turned on. There were two things that happened, you know,
second and four from the six you know, clock running
down in the fourth quarter, the Rams gonna punch in
the touchdown to take the lead instead, Kyrier willing get
stuffed incomplete, incomplete, That's.
Speaker 1: Certainly the key fact of the game.
Speaker 3: But this game was decided on a muff punt, you know,
that really was the difference in the game that gave
Seattle a cheap touchdown in a game that was decided
by less than a touchdown.
Speaker 1: When we think back to.
Speaker 3: The Rams season, special teams doomed their season like literally,
you know, I think of the five regular season loss
especially as were an impact on four of them and
a big impact on three of them. Yet the game
in Philly that I haven't forgotten. They covered for sixty
minutes and then on the last play of the game,
but Blockfield gore turned for a touchdown the other way.
LA's defense and the offense did enough. Their special teams
cost them a trip to the Super Bowl. But Seattle's
defense did enough, you know, and I love the what
Seattle did when they got the ball back. They got
the ball back at their own six yard line. There's
four fifty four in the clock. They ran eleven plays
before they punted it back, and when LA got the
ball back there was twenty five seconds. They ran their
own seven The game was over. Eleven play dry for
the Seahawks were trying to run clock.
Speaker 1: What they do.
Speaker 3: Five of those eleven plays, five of them were passes
with Sam Darnold aggressive.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 3: We talk about special teams, and I just talked about
how New England missed field goals yesterday, you know, and
how the yesterday's game was for Seattle largely decided by
special teams. You know, according to the analytics, it's been
the best petal team's unit seattles in the in the league.
Speaker 1: Rashid Sahat with the punt returns and kick returns.
Speaker 3: The kicking games been trementous, the punty games been tremendous
and obviously here a muff punt for La Seattle falls
on a difference in the ball game. Now, talk about
how well Drake May played in the playoffs or in
the regular season. In the playoffs, obviously, Drake May has
not been as good Sam Donald yesterday against the Rams
defense twenty five for thirty six three and forty six yards,
three touchdowns. Oblique injury, no problem, you know. And it
wasn't a game where they could let Sam Donald take
it easy.
Speaker 1: Donald had to do stuff. You know.
Speaker 3: Quote, it's amazing to be able to do with these
guys in this locker room.
Speaker 1: But this coach is deaf. It means the world to me. Now,
obviously you.
Speaker 3: Have Smith and Jigba, who's been, you know, the leading
receiver in the regular season.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 3: Quote, that's what you saw today. You saw great determination,
passion out there. He saw the group a collective going
out there getting the job done. I told my team,
I'm gonna do whatever it takes, whatever I'll ask me,
whatever that might be. And of course that was enough.
Of course, Seattle's had turnover issues, and Donald is a
quarterback who's had turnover issues himself. Twenty eight during the
regular season, Sam Donald made the Pro Bowl despite leading
all players with twenty turnovers. But here in the last
three games, Donald zero giveaways. Something to be said defensively,
Seattle's gone twenty seven consecutive games out giving up one
hundred yard rusher. They faced Christian McCaffrey, they faced Kyrin Williams,
they faced John Robinson and Jonathan Taylor. Just over the
last two months, six games against those four rbs. No
one hundred yard rushers during that span. So certainly from
a defensive standpoint, that's why Seattle's here. They're here because
of their defense. New England can make the same argument.
Speaker 2: Teddy, you better be careful with those Patriots fans. They
got very mad at me that I said Drake May's
performance in the playoffs have been lackluster at best, eighty
five yards for our guy yesterday, that they had.
Speaker 3: Two passing first downs yesterday, two which listen.
Speaker 2: Teams to seal the game. He did. He had that
quarterback sneak there at the end. I don't want to
discredit that at all, But it's not like we're seeing,
you know, the second coming of Andrew Locke, you know,
throwing major touchdown passes here.
Speaker 3: That said, from when we think about the band, we
haven't even talked about with the opening line, was any
of that for the game, which you're about to do
right now because this is an opening line report.
Speaker 1: But what are we looking for? In general?
Speaker 3: You want a team that hasn't played their best, that's
undervalued in the marketplace. And of these two teams, New
England offensively, I'm confident they have a better game in
them than what we just saw. I'm confident we have
a better game in them than the three games we've
just seen.
Speaker 2: Trust me, listen, I'm not sitting here being unobjective right
Like I have somebody tweet me yesterday Kelly hates the Rams.
I'm like I said, when do I hate the Rams?
I hate the Rams, I hate the Pats, I hate
the Chiefs, I hate the Bengals. Like I just bet
against teams and sometimes even my own, Yesterday was not
one of those days. But I do want to get
into this right now. We've got almost thirteen hundred people
watching live here on Monday morning, so shout out to
all of you. Like our Wager Talk insider, the Carrillo says,
smash that like button guys, if you're looking to become
a wager talk in Center, wt Dot buzz backslash Insiders,
we're gonna get some questions answered as well. But Teddy
super Bowl opening line was all over the place, right,
John Murray texts me, we're opening minus four. We saw
a lot of four and a halfs. We saw some
fives here the lone sportsbook in Florida, hard Rock sitting
five and a half minus one fifteen on the odds
logic screen, let's talk about it.
Speaker 1: And there were three and a halfs.
Speaker 3: There were a few three and a halfs at the
open which I didn't see him on the screen, but
I thought the multiple like I just laid three and
a half.
Speaker 1: I just laid three and a half. So there were
out there.
Speaker 3: I think stations had him here in Vegas. Maybe Coast
had them in Vegas. Three and a half was the
lookhead line. Of course, the lookhead lines were, by the way,
Seattle seven and a half over Denver, three and a
half over New England eight and a half. The Rams
were eight and a half over Denver and also three
and a half over New England. Those were the lookhead lines.
Four and of course the two teams were, you know,
plus one fifty for the Seahawks, plus two ten for
the Rams, plus two fifty the Patriots, plus eleven hundred
for the Broncos. The favorites in both games one and
at least one of the two got the cover. When
it comes to Super Bowl sixty Super Bowl sixty, Seattle is.
Speaker 1: The road team. Apparently.
Speaker 3: For Super Bowl sixty, look ahead line was Seattle minus
three and a half. My powering number comes Seattle minus
two and a half. The markets opened mostly four four
and a half and five last night. There were some
rogue three and a halfs out there. There were some
rogue five and a halfs out there, but mostly four
four and a halfs last five. And it wasn't like
all the Vegas books opened four and all the Global
books open five. It wasn't like all the Sharp books
open five and all the recreational books open four. It
was pretty scattered and random. And again we talked about
the key numbers, and people asked me. People gave me
a little bit of grief in the comments on YouTube
last week, and by all means, guys, give me grief
in the comments on YouTube. We appreciate all your comments.
I appreciate when you don't give me grief, but it's
fine if you do. But they're saying, hey, look man,
you know four is not four and a half is
not a key number, and it can go from four
and a half to five and a half doesn't matter.
Why did you give an emergency betting alert at five
and a half. I give an emergency betting alert at
five and a half because it wasn't gonna last. That's
my job. You know, when the line's not gonna be there,
I give an emergency betting alert. In this instance, with
five not being the keyest of key numbers in the NFL,
I would not be surprised. We continue to see four
and a halfs and fives in the marketplace, even fours
and fives in the market again. The super books still
at four right now, but I think they'll get the
fourn the market to move to four and a half largely,
so I think we'll bounce.
Speaker 1: Four and a half.
Speaker 2: Let's talk about this, Teddy, because last week, as soon
as you told me, Kelly you got a five and
a half, I immediately bet it. I unloaded because I
already liked the Broncos side. Now I'd already had some
Broncos money line and some other things that I thought,
all right, I'm gonna put a pretty sizeable bet on
the five and a half. Do we think this gets
to six? And okay, that's the most most important key thing.
So then to me, the question is is five and
a half prominent in any world? Five and a half
minus one fifteen at the hard rock that I need
to bet it here versus a five minus one oh
five somewhere else.
Speaker 3: So it's not the only five and a half I'm
seeing looking at the os Logic live oscreen and guys,
check you know, I'm gonna hype it because it's a
freaking good product. Check out odds logic dot com, go
osolog dot com, backslash Teddy and get a free seven
day trial.
Speaker 1: And just play around with it. It makes it.
Speaker 3: The day literally the first time I use a live
oz product. You know, I was looking at some of
the free lines. I looking at free Oh this is
cool whatever, and the first time I'm like, Okay, I
can adjust and manually just the screen and make this mine,
and oh my god, I can put my recreational books here,
and I can put the books that I have accounts
at here and I can see what's going on. It
changes your perspective on sports betting, It makes you a
better better immediately check it out odsols dot comback slash Teddy.
But I am seeing like a five and a half
at bet three six five right now.
Speaker 1: But that's not.
Speaker 3: That's that's the exception rather than the rule. The early
money is clearly come for Seattle, all right. The first
bets have clearly come for the Sea Bags, not the Patriots.
And again we look at the two teams postseason run.
Seattle's posseason run has been more impressive in many sense, anuays,
so I'm not surprised that the first money is coming
for Seattle.
Speaker 1: Now will that continue?
Speaker 3: I don't see this getting a six, and I suertaly
don't think it's getting down the below four. So I
think it's gonna trade in a fairly narrow range. There's
no injury concerns really for either team. No one, no
no big injuries. No one got hurt yesterday. They're not
gonna be all these players were wondering if they're gonna
play or not. You know, it's not my homes and
his achilles and Kenny you run around none of that,
so I'm not anticipating any significant line move off of
the current number. Uh fourthreable, I would say, you know,
four and a half five is where we're gonna be
probably from here on out. So if you see those
three and a half or five and a half, you
can pick them.
Speaker 2: Off, all right, That was all I was asking. I
just said, no, if five minus one oh five or
five and a half minus one fifteen was a better
play that ten cents for that half point line. I
know there's a lot of argument there, but five is
a dead number, as they like to say.
Speaker 1: Although five is less dead five used to be, the dead.
Speaker 2: Is really a dead Now it's not as dead.
Speaker 3: And when in the when the two point conversion world,
five is no longer nearly is no longer nearly as
dead as it once was, So the five is worse something.
I think Mathematically it's short to ten cents, though I
think it's worth eight or nine cents if memory serves correctly.
So in theory, you're better at five minus one oh
five than five and a half at minus Well it
I'm not in.
Speaker 2: Some big hurry to bet this game one way or another, right,
I looked at it last night, and I thought, all right,
this looks like a like at the five and a half.
This looks like a bet On Kelly team. Right, take
the underdog plus five and a half, spring a little
bit on the money line, defense wins championships. But then
I mentioned that I test and how Drake may yes
has had to battle the weather. Let's just say it's
a beautiful sunny day in Santa Clara Sunday, almost two
weeks from now, right, I think you're right. I think
we would see a lot more deep passes to Kasha
on booty. I think we would see this running game
be able to really open up. But then I watch,
you know, Jackson Smith and Jigba, and I go, oh
my god, this guy just gets open. Sam Darnold no
longer seeing ghosts. I want to really break down this
game from a side perspective a little bit deeper before
I actually place a wager on this game.
Speaker 3: Shoot, and I mean, I want to talk about the total.
For a minute, we talked about the side.
Speaker 2: I wait to talk about total.
Speaker 1: And it's time to talk about the total.
Speaker 3: Last night, we were looking at forty five and a
half and forty six out there, which is fairly low
for a Super Bowl, and what are we seeing today
forty five and a half forty six? There is a
forty six and a half at you know dk FanDuel
super Book. I mean a lot of the books have
forty six and a half. Some of them are juiced
to the under.
Speaker 1: You know, Dekay's under minus one fifteen, Fangles under minus
one eighteen. But it's worth.
Speaker 3: Noting in this instance the leading indicator books, your circus,
your global books that we won't mention by name, they're
on the lower end of this. They're on the forty
five and a half slash forty six juice to the under.
The books that cater to recreateational betters are at the
forty six and a half number. By and large, it's
not exclusive that way, but it does feel, at least
initially like again, this doesn't mean anything. The money hasn't
come in on the total yet, but the books that
cater to the pros have the total and notch lower
than the books that cater to the Joe's. And by
a notch, I mean like a half point so, but
there's definitely that is of the two is where we're
gonna see a sharp square divide We're much more likely
to see a sharp square divide with the pros on
the under and the Joe's on the over in this
game than than any other fact.
Speaker 1: Than anything on the side.
Speaker 2: I would think, Okay, interesting. George Barnes must be watching
his Odds Logic screen. He said that we're starting to
see some stuff go bye bye. I do not have
my Odds Logic screen open, Teddy, because well, I have
my books open because that's where I can that, and
so I have it on my phone. I have it
on my screen. Let's kind of talk about a few
more things you mentioned. We're gonna get into the props
next Monday, So props come out Westgate Superbook Wednesday night.
You're gonna be down there with some of our social
media team, you, Bill Krackenberg and a few other wagers
personalities getting in some prop bets as well as kind of,
you know, helping our audience navigate maybe some early stuff
they need to be wagering on. So we'll get into
all of that next Monday. Today we're talking strictly side
and total. So if you guys have a question for Teddy,
drop it in the chat. Also give us a thumbs
up while you're in there and maybe hit that subscribe button.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 3: I wouldn't argue with, you know, talking a generalized props
approach right now, because I want to talk just a
couple of things that matter. Okay, when you get that
props packet from Westcoot or anything, when you start looking
at props for the for the Super Bowl, it's overwhelming,
all right, it really. I mean I remember the first time,
you know.
Speaker 2: Look it is. It's like, I mean, it's thick. Yeah.
Speaker 3: So when Jay Cornegie was working at the Imperial Palace,
that's my first super roll in Vegas.
Speaker 1: That's nineteen ninety nine.
Speaker 3: It's Broncos Falcons and my buddy came into town and
we hung out with me for the weekend and we're like.
Speaker 1: Let's go.
Speaker 3: I was like, we gotta go to IP that's where
all the best props are. And we get this packaging.
I don't know where to start.
Speaker 2: You know, that time, props were so relatively like not
necessarily unheard of, but to the general public they were like, yeah,
besides the coin flip, I remember not knowing like wait,
I can bet on how many passing touchdowns are and
they were very basic. Now they're really intricate some of
these props.
Speaker 1: Sure, so when it comes to betting the props, you know,
it's easy to be overwhelmed. Do your homework before you bet.
Speaker 3: That's all I can say is, you know, mispriced props
are what wise guys covet. The sharp money is very
comfortable betting a lot to win a little, as opposed
to the public, who's always going to bet the yes
safety and yes overtime and yes two point convert and
look for the big plus prices. That's the squares side
of the equation for what it's worth. You know, that's
the biggest year between casual better. Casual betters are going
to risk a little to make a lot, and the
pros are complete comfortable risking.
Speaker 1: A lot to win a little.
Speaker 3: And certainly when it comes to Super Bowl Sunday, it's
fine to have fun. It's fine to enjoy the action,
but it's not fine to blow your whole bankroll. You know,
keep your unit size is reasonable at this time of
the year. So that's your generalized props approach. Do your homework,
don't start betting willy nilly, you know, look for don't
be betting the sucker plus big plus price big plus
price props and and and keep your unit sizes. Uh
in the we're having fun range, not in the Oh
my god, I just lost my whole bankroll range.
Speaker 2: Agreeka, Yeah, I'm really just realizing George is right. All
those fives are gone. My five and a half is gone.
We should have emergency better alert it, Teddy.
Speaker 3: Well, so that's interesting enough because I was going to
put an emergency betting alert on this game, but I
haven't done it yet.
Speaker 1: But I think it is time. Okay, right now, it
is time. Due to you, Dan, Dan might be.
Speaker 3: Putting to six emergency betting alert super Bowl style. This
is what's gonna happen on the Super Bowl, all right.
It happens every year. Betters come and they're gonna lay
the points with the favorite. I'm gonna take the underdog
on the money line. If you like New England right now,
DK plus one ninety FanDuel plus one ninety you can
find plus two hundred's if you shop around. Circa just
went down to one ninety. Super books at one ninety
plus one nineties. I do not think we'll be there
for all that much longer.
Speaker 2: You're right, not.
Speaker 1: The Patriots on the money line.
Speaker 3: Bet that's sooner rather than later if you want seattle
on the money line and take your time. Generally, what
happens for Super Bowls they lay the points with the
favorite and they take the dog on the the plus
price of the money line. So the first money line
comes out, this plus one ninety is already shaded. It's
gonna get shaded more between now and kickoff. So plus
one ninety money line, New England. That is your bet
where there's urgency. There is no other urgent bet to
make that I can that I see at this time.
So there's your emerging betting alert, which you don't always
get for a big game, in this instance, super Bowl sixty.
There's something that you gotta bet this morning. If you
want to bet, Ynny Kelly, you bet it right now.
I see your eyes all over the screen.
Speaker 2: So I'm kind of kicking myself because I had a
couple of different fives open, and minus minus one oh
five I was gonna bet, and then I kept looking
back and forth at our friends at the hard Rock
and they even went to four and a half minus
one oh five. So I think at this point in
time I missed the five and a half I missed
the five sit back and wait, I know a lot
of people yesterday immediately Teddy I got texts, oh, I
can't wait to hammer Seattle. I can't wait to hammer Seattle.
And I think that was the initial like gut reaction, like, oh,
come on this Patriots offense. But I think you said
it best. Every single Patriots playoff game was severely affected
by weather, so this one.
Speaker 1: Could be too. Santa Claara is it's known for rain.
Speaker 2: Yeah, very, very good point. So I think right now
there's there's really unless I was gonna bet the plus
one ninety, I think there's really no reason for me
to hurry up and get involved.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 3: The only thing there's urgency on Monday morning is if
you want the money line.
Speaker 2: Okay, all right, do we want to take some questions
from a chat? Let's do it.
Speaker 1: I'm out of steam. All my notes are done, all
my all my You know how much we talks.
Speaker 3: So the beauty of the Super Bowl again, we're gonna
spend the next two weeks talking about this one game.
Usually I try to do sixteen games in fifteen minutes.
Here I I've done thirty minutes and on one game.
And you know that's that's an ague of the business.
Speaker 1: I get it. But yes, I'm happy to take questions.
What if you guys want to ask?
Speaker 2: All right, Matt Murray wants to talk about teasers. See,
you know, it's really funny, Teddy. I get so much
grief about my teasers, which, by the way, I did
I did some I did some bookkeeping this morning up
twenty two units.
Speaker 1: Awesome.
Speaker 2: My minus won ten teasers this year. That was a
really good teaser year. So I need everybody to understand.
Uh okay, But Matt, little little untraditional teaser here talk
about getting paths plus eleven over thirty nine and a
half of the six point teaser minus one twenty five.
Speaker 3: It is not a bet that I would choose to make.
I would understand, you know, super Bowls different, you're gonna
do stuff.
Speaker 1: But for me, I can't.
Speaker 3: I personally can't ever get away from wongs, you know,
because that's what has proven to be profitable when it
comes to teasing totals. I can't think of I'm trying
to maverify every I'm not sure at one point, but
I don't.
Speaker 2: We're teas like where and maybe this is like a
you know, Las Vegas. Cris does a lot with with teasers, right,
but with total I remember doing stuff with him on
bet on It, and with totals, I've never seen enough
vindicated proof right mathematically to say that you should be
teasing totals. And the problem is, because this is a
standalone game, everyone's gonna want to tease the side in total,
of course.
Speaker 3: So just for example, yesterday we had fifty eight points
scored in the one game and seventeen in the other.
Speaker 1: So you wentzero for to teasing totals yesterday in the
divisional round, how would you have done teasing totals?
Speaker 3: Yeah, so you could have tea Seattle San fran and
that would have worked. Buffaloed Ever, teasers didn't work for
the side that lost. Houston, New England teachers would have
and Chicago LA teachers would not have. So the teachers
two and two, and again we weren't talking. So that's
two and four where it is. So we have two
in six playoff games so far. Carolina LA. Teaser wouldn't
have mattered Green Bay, Chicago teaser wouldn't have mattered Jacksonville.
Buffalo with a pushow teaser mattered a lot. San fran
Philly teaser, Matt Are Chargers, New England did not.
Speaker 1: Houston Pittsburgh teaser did matter.
Speaker 3: So again, if half the games of teaser matters, the
math isn't enough, that's not good enough, you know. And
we've seen less than half here this post and I'm
just going through it randomly. Obviously that's not a big
enough sample size. But so I'm not gonna bet teasers
in the super Bowl personally. If you do, best of luck,
but it's not a positive.
Speaker 1: Invitation bet all right.
Speaker 2: I want to take David's questions.
Speaker 1: Thanks for asking.
Speaker 2: Oh. I want to take Dave's question because he is
a client of yours. He wants to know. He says
he loves the show, Thank you for watching. You send
out a few picks a day, bet them all, bet
only one. Some of these say money maker, pick that one.
Talk a little bit about the bank role, So, Teddy,
those looking to partner up with you, right, whether it's
for an NBA season, whether it's for a NFL season,
whether it's for college basketball, what do they need to
look for when you're sending out plays and when should
they be betting? And what is the approach great bank
roll management? On each one of these plays.
Speaker 3: Sure, so I'm not a high volume player. You know,
there are guys that wait, you're talking talking about last Begas, Chris, Johnny.
They are guys that put out you know, that that
are going to be in play all over the place
and if you want action, they are absolutely the guys
that you want to be with. I'm going to be
selective on your standard football weekend. You know, maybe we
have you know, anywhere between six and twelve plays on average,
you know, between NFL College, you know, Thursday night, Friday night, Saturday, Sunday, Monday.
It's not you know, it's not one hundred plays a weekend.
It's you know, a doesn't And obviously the unit size
is how you price your unit. I can't help with
how you price your unit size. It's all I say
is that, you know, the the what Wader talk has
in terms of a system of pricing where the max
play is a five percent big ticket and then four
three two percent below that and in general, over the
course of a weekend. Uh, you know, if I have
a dozen plays in football over the course of a week,
let's say, or if I have you know, fifteen plays
in the NBA or ten fifteen.
Speaker 1: You know, you have a little bit.
Speaker 3: Less in college these days, but even over the course
of a week, you're not putting your whole bankroll necessarily
in play. But the unit sizes are very clearly donated,
donated when in the in the write ups and when
you get the picks, and again it's so you know,
this is my max bet and these are less than
my max bet. Obviously we don't have many big tickets,
you know, I have a handful of month at the most.
Speaker 1: But that's the that's the basic strategy.
Speaker 3: I mean, did I miss something, Kel, I'm not exactly
sure talking about I think.
Speaker 2: That's I think it's just trying to give you a
look behind the method to your madness. Right, if somebody
is looking to partner up with you, like you said,
you're gonna be a lower volume guy. If you want
a high volume guy, we've got those, right everybody. I
just kind of wanted him, him who was a specific
client of yours, to be able to allow you to
elaborate for people who could be potential clients in the future.
Speaker 1: Well, I appreciate that.
Speaker 3: Again, you know, we put out a ton of free
content because it's good and we built an audience of
more the two hundred and forty Thallium Boy.
Speaker 1: By the way, guys, we appreciate the likes.
Speaker 3: The comments that follow us, and we have a ton
of free content every single day, But our bills are
paid from selling plays, you know, betting and selling plays.
Speaker 1: You know, I don't get that.
Speaker 3: That's how we as a site we make our money.
That's personally, how you and I make our money. It's
not about content, it's about winning, which is different, you know,
two very different concepts. So certainly when it comes to
what we're trying to accomplish for the clients, number one
goal is don't burn people, you know, don't bury anyone.
Number two goal is make money, you know, and that's
the truth of it. And every once in a while
everyone has a bad stretch. I had a terrible stretch,
you know. I couldn't win an NBA game for a week,
you know, awful, lost seven in a row. Made me crazy.
It's going to happen once or twice a year. That
is inevitably going to happen to anybody. When we manage
our bankroll, when we pay attention to what's going on
and don't stick our head in the sand.
Speaker 1: And go, oh my god, I just lost five games
in a row. I stuck.
Speaker 3: You know, you sit down, you do your work just
like you would if you're won five game in a row.
You know, these things do balance out. We go hot
and cold. That's an d But at the end of it,
we expect to make money, and from a bankroll standpoint,
you have to be able to withstand. Hey, Teddy had
a shitty weekend. Teddy make me any money. Teddy cost
me money this weekend. There will be weekends like that.
You have to be able to survive a crappy weekend
so you have enough money on Monday. Hey, guess what,
we can make some money. Teddy's rolling now. So when
it comes to bankroll management, the concept is keep your
unit size is reasonable, nothing's a lock.
Speaker 1: Make sure you're still in play.
Speaker 2: As I said on Action Live, to bet another day
is the goal, Teddy. We got some other questions in
the chat we can get to. Max wants to know
is there going to be easy value on player props
under here's kind of my problem with just assuming right.
I do think the books are going to anticipate the
general public betting one way on all these player props
and it's going to be over. So I do believe that.
But also we've seen in past where Super Bowls go
on a scoring frenzy and next thing, you know, everything
goes over, the player props go over, the game goes over.
So it's not safe to just assume that there is
value on these unders.
Speaker 3: Sure, so there probably is some, you know, but there's
lots of you know, lots of closing value shopies and
i'll cev trophies.
Speaker 1: There's value on bet This is an example.
Speaker 2: So I do a show with my friend Sammy Peak
called Chicken Dinner and he goes, Kelly, can you believe
this Puka Nukula line? Can you believe it? Ninety nine
and a half years they're out of their minds? And
I said, yeah, I know, I agree with you, but
I don't want to be holding an under ticket. I
don't want to be holding an under ticket JSN. Every
single week I want to take that under. Every single
week I'm looking at it over on the slash side, going,
oh god, I want to take his under. Jared Stidham
yesterday one eighty eight and a half it open, Oh,
I want to take that over so bad? Oh, my
God give me that over. And after that pass to
Courtland Sutton, I text Ariel was like I knew it.
I knew it still didn't go over. So it's a
really fickle thing here, right, and injuries come into play
as well as game plan. So when you are looking
at some of these player props, tell me what you're
actually looking for, right. I like to script out the
game in my head. I thought Cooper Cup would go
over thirty and a half passing yards last night because
I said they're gonna double team triple team JSN. Guess
what they did, and it didn't matter. He still went
way over his prop total or his receiving yard total,
and Cooper Cup still went under.
Speaker 1: Sure, again, there's no lot.
Speaker 3: There's certainly not many locks in this world, and books
aren't known for our idea. So here's three hundred props
that you can't beat, but here's the one that everyone
can beat. You know, It's it just doesn't It doesn't.
It doesn't work that way. I'm sorry, what are you
asking me?
Speaker 1: I don't even know.
Speaker 2: I'm basically asking, like, how do you so when you
you're headed to the West Gate on Wednesday, you're gonna
get this big prop packet. You know, right here you're saying.
Speaker 1: Hey, yeah, the answer is slowly and methodically.
Speaker 2: Okay, that's the answer. But are you going through like
a game script in your mind?
Speaker 3: Absolutely, that's how the whole So when you have a
good super Bowl, it's because the game script that you
came up with is the way the game is playing out.
When you have a band super Bowl is because nothing
plays out like you thought it was going to. So
of course you have a green script in your head.
How's this going to play out? What are these two?
You know, and from someone like me, I know, I
watched NFL every single Sunday, you know, I watch NFL
Monday nights.
Speaker 1: I watch NFL Thursday nights. I wat the NFL Saturday games.
Speaker 3: I watch, you know, fifteen to twenty hours of NFL
games every week, you know, and usually more than one
game at the same time. So I see a ton
of NFL content. So you have a sense of this
is what the coaches do, this is what the players do,
This is what this guy does, is what that guy does,
because after the games, they go through all the box scores,
all the recaps, and that's you know, that's that's my job.
That's one of the beauties of you know, other guys
have to go and you know, the fixed plumbing, and
I get to freaking watch games and and and and
and and you know, readbox scores and try to analyze
and pick future.
Speaker 1: You know, stuff's gonna happen. And it's that, you know,
this is a life we've chosen. But through that, you
get a sense of what these teams are, how good
they are, what these players can do, what the coaches
you know, and you develop a game plan this is
you know. From that you start see props that make
sense with it. And that's how I approach it.
Speaker 3: But on Wednesday night, when I go down to the
West Gate, I may bet something because the line is
moving on it. But in terms of my my heart
core analysis, you know, because something again when West Gate
opens and then it's priced differently. Most of the moves
you see on the first night are arbitrage.
Speaker 2: Well there's a lot of well here's the other thing too.
So Crap was explaining it to me last week that
there used to be two hundred guys down there on
opening night and last year was about half. But the
still reality is you get two bets back of the line.
So you're only able you've got to be super super
selective there in that first called four hours, because.
Speaker 1: It's a arbitrage. That's what they're betting.
Speaker 3: Most of it is arbitrage, you know, And that's we
talked about where the sharp money's going all the time.
A lot of the sharp money is Book A has
a three and a half, Book three is a five
and a half. Which which way do they think is
going to go? Either lay the three and a half
or take the five and a half. And it's not
an opinion, it's just arbitrage. It's taking the number with
these props. You know, there are many books that will
offer many props starting today. You know, Westgate used to
open Thursday. Now they're like, hey, because it was slower
last year, Like we got to get.
Speaker 1: Earlier to the table.
Speaker 3: That's why they're doing a Wednesday this year to have
more of an impact. But what we what they're betting
into is a marketplace where on Wednesday night, when the
west Gate puts.
Speaker 1: Out the props, there's even any props out there.
Speaker 3: So if they've got whoever, you know, Kenneth Walker at
seventy eight and a half and someone else is Kenneth
Walker at seventy.
Speaker 1: Two and a half.
Speaker 3: The books, the first bets coming in are not gonna
have any opinion. They're just gonna be either betting the
seventy two and a half up for the seventy eight
and a half down, you know. I mean, it's taking
numbers that they don't think they're gonna see again. That's
and of course obviously we're all getting this prop pack
at the same time, so we've only had three hours
to analyze it. Before you're making bets, you're literally just
betting stuff where you're like, this is I saw this
over there at forty three and a half yards and
they have at priced at forty seven and a half.
Speaker 1: Let's go under. You know.
Speaker 3: That's what those first bets are, largely arbitrage.
Speaker 2: Okay, and thank you, Joe. You just had me double
check that Cooper Cup prop. I thought it was dead
in the water. You are right, he did go over
thirty and a half passing year.
Speaker 1: What about there?
Speaker 2: Well, you know why, because it didn't matter. I went
to and two. Because splash is basically like you're putting
together game parlays, but you're going head to head with
another peer. So you can go three in one and win,
You're not going two and two and winning. So I
knew I had already lost. It didn't matter how I lost.
I just assumed that I also lost that one. All right, Teddy,
We've got wager Talk Today coming up in about fifteen minutes, Dan, Alexander,
Andy Lang. You know they're gonna be talking tons of
Super Bowl amongst other things like darts and tennis and lacrosse.
That show is all over the board, but all around
the world is where it is. Yeah, they are all
around the world. Anything you would like to leave our
audience with.
Speaker 3: So, first of all, I want to thank you guys
for being with us all year again, even on Super Bowl.
You know, two thousand you're watching live and all you
watching on replay. We really appreciate you know, I hype
Odd's logic. Check out oz logic dot com. Appreciate this five.
If you haven't followed, if you don't follow wager Talk.
Speaker 1: TV, now's the day. You know, we get into alerts everything.
These videos alive.
Speaker 3: Two hundred and forty thousand plus are following us and
we started with zero put our good content. So we
appreciate the likes, the comments, that follows. Kelly and I
both get into the comments on YouTube, so we appreciate
comment below. Tell us what do you think? Give us
your opinions and I'll do my best to respond. If nothing,
I'll give you a heart. But thank you for all
of your comments. And check out the website wadertalk dot com,
my homepaget dot buzz Backs, last TC and see you
guys online.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Teddy at Teddy Underscore Covers, check out his stuff.
On Wednesday night, he's gonna go over those Westgate super
book props Bill Krackenberger and I'm not sure who else
is going. I'm gonna figure that out shortly, but they're
gonna be down there with our social media team from
wager Talk. So if you see them there, definitely go
up and say hello. Maybe maybe pick Teddy's great and
take a peek at a couple of his ticket and
somebody text me what they are. All jokes aside. Thank
you guys for hanging out with us every single Monday.
We'll be back next Monday before I head to San Francisco.
Speaker 1: Teddy, We've got to Monday.
Speaker 3: We'll be back to Dad well the day after this, yeah, yeah,
the day because to me, that's the funnest show today.
After the Super Bawl, could we go through all the
props and we go through next year's we go through
the odds for to win the Super Bowl next year.
I think it's short and quick, but it's a it's
a fun little recap after the big game. So be
sure to tune in each of the next two Mondays.
Next week we'll talk props heavy, and the weekend after
we'll do a season recap and all that kind of stuff.
It'll be a lot of fun and we'll have time
to answer questions on both shows. So please, if you
have the opportunity, watch live and chime in the chat.
We'll do our best answer as many questions as we can.
Thank you for watching. Wait you Talk TV.