1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:03,919 Speaker 1: The semi finals in the College Football Playoff coming up 2 00:00:03,960 --> 00:00:22,320 next on bet on It. Welcome to bet on It, 3 00:00:22,440 --> 00:00:25,879 Kelly Stewart, Yanni, the Greek, Marco DiAngelo, here to talk 4 00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:28,640 all things college football Playoff. We've got three games left. 5 00:00:28,679 --> 00:00:32,079 The semi finals are this week, and then of course 6 00:00:32,240 --> 00:00:35,439 we've got the National Championship coming up. We're gonna get 7 00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:39,439 right into it because I have not decided how I 8 00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:41,159 M about these games yet, so I'm going to talk 9 00:00:41,200 --> 00:00:43,280 to our two experts from wager talk dot com. I 10 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:45,479 got my odds logic screen open VR because I'm gonna 11 00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:51,640 start with you. Miami opened minus too heavily juice two 12 00:00:51,679 --> 00:00:53,840 and a half in a lot of spots over old 13 00:00:54,000 --> 00:00:56,560 miss They're now a three and a half point favorite 14 00:00:56,560 --> 00:01:00,320 at the super book minus one oh eight three one 15 00:01:00,399 --> 00:01:04,400 twenty at circa total has ticked up a little bit 16 00:01:04,439 --> 00:01:08,079 fifty one, with the opener now fifty two fifty one 17 00:01:08,159 --> 00:01:10,319 and a half. Break down this game. I know you 18 00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:13,359 have a four percent play up, so I'm not gonna 19 00:01:13,359 --> 00:01:16,239 ask you too much as far as the side goes, 20 00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:18,519 but I want to talk about the difference between betting 21 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:22,680 that three juiced or three and a half. Here because 22 00:01:22,719 --> 00:01:24,959 I do think that is significant that some of the 23 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:26,840 sharp versus square books are telling. 24 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:30,280 Speaker 2: Us, Yeah, not as significant as in the NFL, meaning 25 00:01:30,319 --> 00:01:33,840 you're not paying as much, but you're still paying more 26 00:01:33,879 --> 00:01:37,120 than the ten cents that we're a customed for paying 27 00:01:37,239 --> 00:01:40,120 per half point. And on most half points it's really 28 00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:43,439 not worth ten cents, meaning if you're going from plus 29 00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:46,000 nine to nine and a half, that ten that isn't 30 00:01:46,000 --> 00:01:48,400 worth ten cents, but they're still charging you the same 31 00:01:48,439 --> 00:01:51,159 ten cents, where from going from eight to eight and 32 00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:54,359 a half maybe better than going from nine to nine 33 00:01:54,359 --> 00:01:57,280 and a half, but still in that instance it's still 34 00:01:57,359 --> 00:02:01,359 not worth ten cents. You're usually being overcharged to buy 35 00:02:01,439 --> 00:02:04,840 half points, so unless you're certain exactly what the half 36 00:02:04,879 --> 00:02:07,560 point costs, you need to be very cautious. But there 37 00:02:07,599 --> 00:02:11,280 are some numbers where the value is there, meaning like 38 00:02:11,479 --> 00:02:13,560 it going from three and a half to four, it 39 00:02:13,599 --> 00:02:16,360 should cost you minus one twenty one, one twenty two, 40 00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:19,240 but you could get it for one twenty in those 41 00:02:19,319 --> 00:02:21,680 spots when I'm getting a plus three and a half. 42 00:02:21,960 --> 00:02:25,280 I'll always tell subscribers, if you can get the half 43 00:02:25,319 --> 00:02:28,800 point up to minus one twenty one twenty one, do it, 44 00:02:28,879 --> 00:02:31,919 because you actually should be paying one twenty two for it. 45 00:02:32,240 --> 00:02:34,639 So there are instances where you want to buy a 46 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:37,159 half a point for this game, in particular, you got 47 00:02:37,159 --> 00:02:39,240 Miami in Mississippi. Here's what you should be doing. If 48 00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:42,159 you're liking Miami, you gotta be looking to lay the three. 49 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:44,560 That's the key there, because you're not being asked to 50 00:02:44,639 --> 00:02:47,280 lay more than one twenty five. In fact, there's minus 51 00:02:47,319 --> 00:02:50,360 one nineteen's out there. There's minus one twenties out there, 52 00:02:50,800 --> 00:02:53,719 as long as it doesn't get pass that one twenty 53 00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:56,479 five mark, because at that point you want to lay 54 00:02:56,520 --> 00:02:58,759 three and a half at minus one ten. You don't 55 00:02:58,759 --> 00:03:02,120 want to lay minus three minus one thirty in college 56 00:03:02,159 --> 00:03:05,080 football because you're overpaying for that and a half point. 57 00:03:05,280 --> 00:03:07,280 You more or less have three and a half in 58 00:03:07,319 --> 00:03:11,400 your mind. You're thinking on three I push instead of losing. 59 00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:15,759 But the reality is you're laying. You're getting three minus 60 00:03:15,759 --> 00:03:18,879 one thirty one thirty five what have you? So that 61 00:03:19,039 --> 00:03:21,120 isn't the same bet. That's what you got to keep 62 00:03:21,159 --> 00:03:24,199 your mind. You're focus on what is the juice that 63 00:03:24,199 --> 00:03:26,719 they're paying me. I see guys do it all the time. 64 00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:29,919 They'll buy two points and lay one fifty so now 65 00:03:29,919 --> 00:03:32,759 all of a sudden, instead of a minus five or 66 00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:35,120 minus five and a half, for whatever reason, they'll take 67 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:36,879 it down to three to three and a half. But 68 00:03:36,919 --> 00:03:40,520 they're laying minus one fifty for that. So again the 69 00:03:40,639 --> 00:03:43,439 juice is everything. If you like Miami, you want to 70 00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:46,719 lay up to minus one twenty no more than one 71 00:03:46,759 --> 00:03:49,159 twenty five, or go to three and a half. If 72 00:03:49,199 --> 00:03:52,120 you like Mississippi, you should be looking to take the 73 00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:55,520 three and a half and laying up to minus one 74 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:57,960 twenty for that three and a half. But if you 75 00:03:58,080 --> 00:04:00,800 getting three and a half at minus one ten, and 76 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:03,319 you could buy that the four. I know many aren't 77 00:04:03,319 --> 00:04:06,919 available on screen, but if you have off screen outs 78 00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:09,039 that have three and a half, they usually you'll have 79 00:04:09,080 --> 00:04:10,960 it at minus one ten. By that hook the four 80 00:04:11,240 --> 00:04:14,199 on Mississippi up to minus one twenty, you are getting 81 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:16,920 so much the best of it in that spot. So now, 82 00:04:17,079 --> 00:04:20,199 as far as the pick goes, here's what I'm looking 83 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:22,160 to get to the window with between now and kickoff. 84 00:04:22,199 --> 00:04:24,240 I already have a four percent on the side like 85 00:04:24,319 --> 00:04:27,439 Kelly touched on, but I'm looking at this total. You 86 00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:31,519 have a difference, a contrast in strengths between these teams 87 00:04:31,600 --> 00:04:38,120 Here's what I mean. Miami top twenty offense, top five defense, 88 00:04:39,079 --> 00:04:45,120 Mississippi top twenty defense, top five offense. So Mississippi's got 89 00:04:45,160 --> 00:04:49,600 the offense, Miami's got the defense. Okay, you have that 90 00:04:49,759 --> 00:04:54,319 contrast in styles here. What we're looking at the total 91 00:04:54,399 --> 00:04:57,879 is it's still sitting at what fifty two? All right, 92 00:04:57,959 --> 00:05:00,000 about a fifty one to fifty two and a half? 93 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:03,160 What have you starting to see some public money come 94 00:05:03,199 --> 00:05:06,480 in on the ounder? Not surprising? Why look at miami 95 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:10,399 recency over the last few games. Thirty eight total points 96 00:05:10,480 --> 00:05:14,639 last game, thirteen points in the game before even in 97 00:05:14,720 --> 00:05:17,439 the three games prior where they put up thirty eight, 98 00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:24,160 thirty four and forty one, they held their opponents to seven, seven, seventeen. 99 00:05:24,639 --> 00:05:27,800 So you usually need two teams to score for an 100 00:05:27,879 --> 00:05:31,199 over and the problem is with Miami, no one's been 101 00:05:31,199 --> 00:05:34,279 able to score on them. Here's the difference. Mississippi's going 102 00:05:34,319 --> 00:05:36,920 to be able to score a little better than those 103 00:05:36,959 --> 00:05:42,160 other teams. And because of the weakness of Mississippi's defense, 104 00:05:42,639 --> 00:05:46,160 that Miami offense that's only put up twenty four points 105 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:50,519 ten points they had put up twenty against SMU, twenty 106 00:05:50,519 --> 00:05:52,879 one against Louisville. They're gonna have an easier go of 107 00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:56,759 it against Mississippi, believe it or not, putting up some points. 108 00:05:57,160 --> 00:05:59,680 So I'm hoping this gets down to about fifty one, 109 00:05:59,800 --> 00:06:03,199 and I'm going to fire because my power ratings have 110 00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:06,319 this total at fifty three and a half, so it's 111 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:09,000 a little low now, but hopefully it gets the point 112 00:06:09,040 --> 00:06:11,120 where I could get to the window, and that's about 113 00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:12,600 fifty one fifty one and a half. 114 00:06:13,560 --> 00:06:16,000 Speaker 1: Marco. I want to talk a little bit more about 115 00:06:16,000 --> 00:06:19,920 what we saw last right, and that's always what the 116 00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:23,160 general public does, so bear with me in my long 117 00:06:23,199 --> 00:06:28,439 winded synopsis. Here Ole Miss down double digits to Georgia. 118 00:06:28,759 --> 00:06:31,920 Thank you, Kirby Smart for your conservative play calling. And 119 00:06:32,720 --> 00:06:35,240 that was not a fun one for a Georgia future 120 00:06:35,319 --> 00:06:38,959 ticket holder, but Ole Miss got the job done. Now 121 00:06:39,519 --> 00:06:43,040 it appears they may be being undervalued here Am I 122 00:06:43,160 --> 00:06:47,600 wrong in that analysis, because hey, the comment section knows. 123 00:06:47,639 --> 00:06:50,560 I've been betting against Tomorrow Crystobal in Miami all season long. 124 00:06:50,639 --> 00:06:52,839 I did not versus Texas A and M because I 125 00:06:52,879 --> 00:06:55,839 said I don't want either one of these teams to win, 126 00:06:56,000 --> 00:06:58,759 and that's basically how they played each other. Vre mentioned 127 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:01,519 that low scoring affair break down this one for me 128 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:06,199 because I don't really know if I am being unbiased here. 129 00:07:06,319 --> 00:07:08,959 I think the line is about where it needs to be. 130 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:11,560 I don't need to get involved in this game. But 131 00:07:11,600 --> 00:07:14,600 being there's only three college football games left, you know, 132 00:07:14,639 --> 00:07:17,000 it's kind of it's calling me, going, all right, Kelly, 133 00:07:17,040 --> 00:07:18,160 what are you gonna do here? 134 00:07:19,439 --> 00:07:23,199 Speaker 3: Well, Kelly is vr said, this is strength versus strength 135 00:07:23,240 --> 00:07:25,800 in this game, and you're gonna take it. And look 136 00:07:25,839 --> 00:07:29,560 at the two teams. It's Miami defense, which has been 137 00:07:29,639 --> 00:07:32,959 absolute nails. During this current six game winning streak that 138 00:07:32,959 --> 00:07:36,560 they're on. All six opponents have been held to seventeen 139 00:07:36,879 --> 00:07:40,319 or fewer points. On the flip side to that, old 140 00:07:40,399 --> 00:07:43,800 Miss in their seven game winning streak, has scored thirty 141 00:07:43,879 --> 00:07:46,879 or more in every game. So something's got to give 142 00:07:47,519 --> 00:07:51,319 for Miami. Here's the problem. They need to get more 143 00:07:51,439 --> 00:07:54,600 out of Carson Beck than they did in the two 144 00:07:54,680 --> 00:07:58,319 playoff games. So far, he's passed for one hundred and 145 00:07:58,360 --> 00:08:01,519 three yards and one hundred thirty eight yards. Now he's 146 00:08:01,560 --> 00:08:05,920 had a high completion percentage and a lot of completions, 147 00:08:05,959 --> 00:08:08,360 but they've been all of the dink and dunk variety. 148 00:08:08,959 --> 00:08:11,720 They've been able to get away with that because a 149 00:08:11,959 --> 00:08:15,240 they've had the leads or been tied in both of 150 00:08:15,240 --> 00:08:18,399 the playoff games, and they've been low scoring games, so 151 00:08:18,399 --> 00:08:20,839 they didn't have to force the ball up the field. 152 00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:24,879 That's not gonna happen against Mississippi. I do not see 153 00:08:24,879 --> 00:08:29,600 them shutting Mississippi down completely. Georgia has a good defense, 154 00:08:30,079 --> 00:08:33,399 not anywhere as good as Miami's, but they have a 155 00:08:33,759 --> 00:08:37,080 very good defense, adequate, let me put it that way, 156 00:08:37,360 --> 00:08:40,679 and they couldn't contain old myths. And Georgia, as you said, 157 00:08:40,879 --> 00:08:43,159 had the lead. I think in the third quarter they 158 00:08:43,200 --> 00:08:46,039 had like a nine point lead and the ball and 159 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:48,879 had an opportunity to break the game back open, and 160 00:08:48,919 --> 00:08:52,159 they couldn't get it done. The other part of it 161 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:57,320 is that you can't shut down this old mispassing game. 162 00:08:57,519 --> 00:09:00,159 Now everybody keeps waiting. And here's where the narrative of 163 00:09:00,279 --> 00:09:03,519 is Kelly where I think that we're seeing a little 164 00:09:03,559 --> 00:09:06,440 bit of biased into the number. And you talk about 165 00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:11,240 the recency bias. Everybody talks about old miss There's two 166 00:09:11,279 --> 00:09:15,039 things that you bring out. The big story, obviously is Okay, 167 00:09:15,399 --> 00:09:18,360 when's it going to be the game they miss Lane Kiffin. Okay, 168 00:09:18,519 --> 00:09:21,960 everybody's waiting for that to happen. It hasn't happened thus far. 169 00:09:22,759 --> 00:09:26,200 They've had two games. The first game they ruled it out. 170 00:09:26,240 --> 00:09:29,039 You know, everybody just dismissed it because they beat Tulane, 171 00:09:29,240 --> 00:09:32,639 and everybody said, you know, that was the courtesy, you know, 172 00:09:32,840 --> 00:09:35,960 invite you know Tulane and James Madison. Neither one of 173 00:09:36,000 --> 00:09:39,120 those teams belonged and all of that. That's an argument 174 00:09:39,159 --> 00:09:42,799 for a different day. But they steam rolled down a 175 00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:45,480 lot of people, and myself included. I was on Georgia 176 00:09:45,559 --> 00:09:47,879 last week. I thought Georgia would be able. I thought 177 00:09:47,919 --> 00:09:50,799 that would be the spot where they would miss Lane Kiffin, 178 00:09:50,879 --> 00:09:56,200 and they didn't. And the quarterback really impressed me. Chambliss. 179 00:09:56,720 --> 00:09:59,039 He was like a cat with nine lives. He's not 180 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:02,919 really a running quarterback, but he is so tough to 181 00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:06,759 bring down. When you do come with pressure, he extends 182 00:10:06,799 --> 00:10:10,360 the play and he finds somebody open. And this team 183 00:10:10,639 --> 00:10:13,759 continues to throw for three over three hundred yards per 184 00:10:13,799 --> 00:10:16,799 game five straight games. Now, So if you want to 185 00:10:16,799 --> 00:10:19,279 go ahead and throw out the TWU Lane game because 186 00:10:19,279 --> 00:10:22,639 it was a mismatch, all right, it's still four straight games. 187 00:10:22,679 --> 00:10:26,240 Of over three hundred yards passing. Here's the problem. Can 188 00:10:26,279 --> 00:10:31,000 Carson Beck deliver if they're behind. It's easy to play 189 00:10:31,039 --> 00:10:33,759 when you're running downhill with a lead, but if you've 190 00:10:33,759 --> 00:10:36,440 got to come uphill, you don't make a stop on 191 00:10:36,559 --> 00:10:39,240 Old Miss, and all of a sudden you're down seven 192 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:41,759 ten points. Is he going to be able to move 193 00:10:41,799 --> 00:10:44,200 the chains for Miami or is he gonna have to 194 00:10:44,240 --> 00:10:47,440 force the issue? I go back and watch. You know, 195 00:10:47,559 --> 00:10:49,559 the last game was great, but go back and look 196 00:10:49,559 --> 00:10:52,200 at the Texas A and M game. I realized it 197 00:10:52,279 --> 00:10:56,600 was played and win, but that was a horrible game. Offensively, 198 00:10:57,480 --> 00:11:01,000 I just don't see them getting enough stops on Mississippi. 199 00:11:01,360 --> 00:11:04,200 That's gonna make me feel comfortable taking Carson back, and 200 00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:07,960 that's gonna land me on taking Old Miss plus to 201 00:11:08,080 --> 00:11:10,519 three or three and a half. And obviously, because they're 202 00:11:10,519 --> 00:11:12,759 both out there, this is where you got a sharp 203 00:11:12,960 --> 00:11:16,000 you know, shop for your best line. Half a point's important. 204 00:11:16,240 --> 00:11:19,639 If you like Miami, course you're gonna look for the three. 205 00:11:19,919 --> 00:11:21,600 If you like Old Miss, you're gonna look for the 206 00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:24,759 three and a half. And I think you're gonna see 207 00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:26,960 if you wait the game day. I think it's gonna 208 00:11:26,960 --> 00:11:28,639 get back to three and a half. I think when 209 00:11:28,639 --> 00:11:32,679 the public actually gets involved, because right now, the public Kelly, 210 00:11:32,720 --> 00:11:36,879 you know it, especially places that are playing where they 211 00:11:36,919 --> 00:11:39,799 got to post their money up. They're not tying their 212 00:11:39,799 --> 00:11:42,600 money up for Thursday and Friday games when they got 213 00:11:42,639 --> 00:11:46,799 to bet Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday college basketball and NBA basketball. 214 00:11:46,919 --> 00:11:49,919 Their bank rolls don't allow them to do that. They're 215 00:11:49,919 --> 00:11:51,559 gonna come in on game day, and I think they're 216 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:55,120 gonna come in on Miami because they love that Miami 217 00:11:55,320 --> 00:11:57,720 defense of what they've done in the first two games. 218 00:11:57,919 --> 00:12:00,279 So for me, it's old miss plus the point. 219 00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:05,120 Speaker 1: All right, let's get on to the next game. This 220 00:12:05,159 --> 00:12:10,840 one's gonna be really interesting. Oregon currently a wow headed 221 00:12:10,919 --> 00:12:14,519 up to four right now at some prominent sharp books. 222 00:12:14,840 --> 00:12:17,080 That's gonna be interesting up from three and a half 223 00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:20,519 pretty much across the board still, but that one is 224 00:12:20,600 --> 00:12:23,279 looming there on the odd screen tells you where this 225 00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:26,960 one is going. Forty seven was the opener, forty seven 226 00:12:27,039 --> 00:12:29,879 and a half, even a forty eight starting to pop 227 00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:35,120 up right now, Marco, I'm gonna go back to you situationally, 228 00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:37,960 this is an interesting one, right. I love Kirk Signetti 229 00:12:38,159 --> 00:12:39,799 and I may take a lot of flak for that, 230 00:12:39,799 --> 00:12:43,399 because the guy's gonna Hey, he's very stoic in an 231 00:12:43,440 --> 00:12:46,000 asshole way. Can I say that, like, he doesn't smile, 232 00:12:46,080 --> 00:12:49,200 he's never happy. You got Bernando Mendoz on the sideline, 233 00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:51,840 who could not be a happier guy, and then you've 234 00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:55,279 got Kirk Signetti. But I love the ice in his veins. 235 00:12:56,200 --> 00:12:58,799 As an underdog. I bet against him several times this 236 00:12:58,879 --> 00:13:02,320 year as a favorite, went two and one against the spread, 237 00:13:02,480 --> 00:13:05,399 no outright winners. Though Iowa couldn't get it done for me, 238 00:13:05,480 --> 00:13:07,799 Illinois couldn't get it done for me. Usc couldn't get 239 00:13:07,799 --> 00:13:12,240 it done for me. But now they're a favorite, and 240 00:13:12,279 --> 00:13:15,519 they've been a favorite. They just waxed Alabama as a 241 00:13:15,720 --> 00:13:17,679 seven and a half point favorite, and that one got 242 00:13:17,720 --> 00:13:20,919 steamed late. I was stout. I teased Indiana with a 243 00:13:20,960 --> 00:13:23,360 bunch of NFL. I know it's against the rules. You 244 00:13:23,480 --> 00:13:26,840 can't do that here. You cannot tease either one of 245 00:13:26,840 --> 00:13:30,159 these college football games. So, Marco, from a situational perspective, 246 00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:33,559 how do you think this Indiana team goes from the 247 00:13:34,120 --> 00:13:36,679 hunter as the underdog for the last two seasons to 248 00:13:36,679 --> 00:13:39,519 now the hunt, the hunted by the Oregon Ducks, who 249 00:13:39,559 --> 00:13:41,679 are also looking for revenge. 250 00:13:42,679 --> 00:13:45,000 Speaker 3: Well, Kelly, if this was the first time, I would 251 00:13:45,039 --> 00:13:47,399 be a little bit more concerned. They were a favorite 252 00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:50,360 last week against Alabama and they took care of business. 253 00:13:51,159 --> 00:13:54,159 Because that is an angle that I use a lot. 254 00:13:54,440 --> 00:13:56,960 You know, when a team wins outright as an underdog 255 00:13:57,000 --> 00:13:59,039 and then all of a sudden they're in the role 256 00:13:59,080 --> 00:14:03,080 of the favorite, different you know, dynamic for them whenever, 257 00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:07,039 just from the mental standpoint of it. But there's two 258 00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:08,919 things we're gonna start with. The first thing that we 259 00:14:09,039 --> 00:14:12,399 got to look at and I realized it was earlier 260 00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:17,840 in the season, but they played in Oregon. Okay, in Oregon, 261 00:14:18,399 --> 00:14:20,080 I believe was a six and a half or seven 262 00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:23,759 point favorite. That line did come down a little bit 263 00:14:23,799 --> 00:14:27,639 on game day with sharp money coming in on Indiana, 264 00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:30,440 and I had Indiana in that game. I like that 265 00:14:30,759 --> 00:14:33,759 the spot with them as an underdog. But you're going 266 00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:37,480 from Oregon being let's go to the low number of 267 00:14:37,679 --> 00:14:40,000 six and a half point favorite at home to now 268 00:14:40,080 --> 00:14:45,159 we're playing on a neutral field and we've got Indiana 269 00:14:45,279 --> 00:14:47,519 minus three and a half. And you said you're seeing 270 00:14:47,519 --> 00:14:50,679 a couple of fours popping up that's a ten point 271 00:14:50,799 --> 00:14:52,159 swing from the first meeting. 272 00:14:53,000 --> 00:14:53,960 Speaker 1: Is it too much? 273 00:14:54,759 --> 00:14:57,759 Speaker 3: You know, we always talk about, you know, overreaction to 274 00:14:57,799 --> 00:15:00,320 what you just saw. Now, what we just saw, as 275 00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:04,919 you said, was a complete and utter domination by Indiana. 276 00:15:05,000 --> 00:15:07,799 I mean it was a blowout score and it wasn't 277 00:15:07,799 --> 00:15:11,320 even that close. I mean they dominated in every facet 278 00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:15,240 of that game. But what impressed me about it when 279 00:15:15,279 --> 00:15:18,519 I watched that game, and what impressed me about this 280 00:15:18,639 --> 00:15:22,080 team every time I've seen them play, even with a 281 00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:25,879 big lead like they had. You talk about the look 282 00:15:25,919 --> 00:15:29,840 on Kurt Signetti's face, that stare, that whatever you want 283 00:15:29,879 --> 00:15:34,039 to call it. Look at the sidelines, did you see 284 00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:37,240 a single player, you know, yucking it up and high 285 00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:40,320 five and one another and you know, in enjoying the moment, 286 00:15:41,039 --> 00:15:43,759 they know they have two more games. This is a 287 00:15:43,759 --> 00:15:47,759 team on a mission. I really don't want to step 288 00:15:47,799 --> 00:15:50,559 in front of them. You've got two teams that got 289 00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:53,559 great quarterbacks. And you know what the side story to 290 00:15:53,639 --> 00:15:56,679 this game, and it's a great one. This couldn't determine 291 00:15:56,960 --> 00:15:59,919 the order they go in the NFL Draft, because most 292 00:16:00,159 --> 00:16:03,720 people think these are two of the best quarterbacks coming 293 00:16:03,759 --> 00:16:07,519 out of college football this year. Is it gonna be 294 00:16:08,399 --> 00:16:11,039 Mendoza or is it gonna be Dante more Who's gonna 295 00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:13,559 get the number one draft pick, or I should say 296 00:16:13,559 --> 00:16:17,039 the first quarterback drafted. It's going to be an interesting game. 297 00:16:17,080 --> 00:16:20,320 But I look at Oregon in what they did in 298 00:16:20,440 --> 00:16:24,039 their win. They beat Texas Tech, okay, but they did 299 00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:28,360 benefit from four Texas Tech turnovers. Oregon couldn't get a 300 00:16:28,399 --> 00:16:31,159 ground game going in that game. And I know Texas 301 00:16:31,159 --> 00:16:33,960 Tech has a good defense, but have you seen this 302 00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:38,000 Indiana defense, not just in the last game against Alabama, 303 00:16:38,399 --> 00:16:43,039 all year long. They totally shut down the Alabama run game. Now, 304 00:16:43,240 --> 00:16:46,080 there is no Alabama run game, so let's put that 305 00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:50,919 out there right away. But if you look all year, 306 00:16:51,279 --> 00:16:55,120 you know Indiana held Ohio State to fifty eight yards 307 00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:58,639 on twenty six rushes in the Big Ten Championship game. 308 00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:02,200 Only two teams teams rushed for more than one hundred 309 00:17:02,279 --> 00:17:06,079 yards this year against them. This Indiana defense. When you 310 00:17:06,119 --> 00:17:08,480 think about Indiana, and because they've won by so many 311 00:17:08,559 --> 00:17:12,880 big scores, everybody thinks about their offense. It's the defense 312 00:17:12,880 --> 00:17:17,400 that makes this team go. And if Oregon becomes one 313 00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:20,920 dimensional and Dante Moore's got to carry the whole team. 314 00:17:21,240 --> 00:17:23,440 I don't know that they get it done. I'm not 315 00:17:23,599 --> 00:17:27,440 stepping in front of them. You look at the Indiana defense. 316 00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:31,480 Twelve of fourteen opponents fifteen points or less this year. 317 00:17:32,279 --> 00:17:35,759 I'm gonna go ahead and take Indiana here. I'm gonna 318 00:17:35,839 --> 00:17:39,640 ride with Kurt Signetti. You know why he wins? Google it. 319 00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:45,559 Speaker 1: Okay, that made me laugh. Fair enough, Marco, he does win. 320 00:17:45,759 --> 00:17:49,799 He is a winner. Ah, Marco really quickly before I 321 00:17:49,880 --> 00:17:52,559 ask VR his thoughts, what are you got going on 322 00:17:52,599 --> 00:17:56,039 over at wager talk dot com for the college football playoffs? 323 00:17:56,440 --> 00:17:59,880 Speaker 3: Well, we've got we'll have some action. We'll have definitely 324 00:17:59,880 --> 00:18:03,119 a premium play in one of the two games, maybe 325 00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:07,319 both of them. Also, big weekend in NFL playoff action. 326 00:18:07,519 --> 00:18:10,519 We hit another five percent play last week. I don't 327 00:18:10,599 --> 00:18:14,119 pop them all the time, but we did know it. 328 00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:16,680 We're forty one and eighteen with those plays. Now, we 329 00:18:16,759 --> 00:18:20,920 had Seattle over San Francisco Saturday night. We've got one 330 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:25,519 that we're looking at watch watching weather watching line could 331 00:18:25,519 --> 00:18:28,519 happen on the weekend, So stay tuned later in the 332 00:18:28,559 --> 00:18:30,720 week on that. But the best way to do it, Kelly, 333 00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:34,079 not only for myself, for VR, any of the cappers 334 00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:38,559 at wager Talk seven days for the price of three. 335 00:18:39,079 --> 00:18:41,759 Can't get a better deal than that. You're gonna get 336 00:18:41,799 --> 00:18:44,640 seven days all access, and right now it's the best 337 00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:49,400 time everything is happening. You got college basketball, NBA hockey, 338 00:18:49,759 --> 00:18:53,119 you've got the final three games of college football, You've 339 00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:56,680 got the NFL playoffs. It's an exciting time of the year. 340 00:18:56,880 --> 00:18:59,200 You won't miss a single play and you'll get them 341 00:18:59,240 --> 00:19:03,079 when you're on an all access client. The benefit of that, Kelly, 342 00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:06,440 is you don't have to wait until game day. You know, 343 00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:08,680 when you're buying a package or something. The minute we 344 00:19:08,759 --> 00:19:12,119 release a game, it goes directly into the system and 345 00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:16,160 you get an email from wager Talk with the play 346 00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:18,799 so you can jump on the line as soon as 347 00:19:18,839 --> 00:19:21,319 we release the game. That's the benefit of being an 348 00:19:21,319 --> 00:19:24,359 all access subscriber. So head over to wager Talk, pick 349 00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:27,279 your favorite capper, grab a seven day package for the 350 00:19:27,319 --> 00:19:28,000 price of three. 351 00:19:28,759 --> 00:19:30,960 Speaker 1: All right, I VR. I know because I did last 352 00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:33,880 call with you last weekend. You have a five percent 353 00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:37,279 play on this game. But I'd love some of your 354 00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:40,640 opinions from a power rating perspective here, because we've been 355 00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:43,839 talking about those all season long. Strength of schedule comes 356 00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:47,519 into play as well. Plus, these two teams, as Marco 357 00:19:47,599 --> 00:19:50,480 touched on, have played each other before. How do those 358 00:19:50,519 --> 00:19:52,839 types of things weigh into your handicap of this game? 359 00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:56,000 Speaker 2: Well, number one, you gotta I look more at what 360 00:19:56,119 --> 00:19:58,839 was the betting line in that first game as opposed 361 00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:01,000 to what the final score was was? So what was 362 00:20:01,039 --> 00:20:04,920 the betting line? First? In that game, you had Oregon 363 00:20:05,519 --> 00:20:08,599 at home minus six and a half against Indiana. They 364 00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:12,319 lost that game by ten, all right, so they underperformed 365 00:20:12,319 --> 00:20:15,279 the betting market by close to three touchdowns. And then 366 00:20:15,319 --> 00:20:18,240 you get closer to the box score. Did Indiana really dominate? Yeah? 367 00:20:18,279 --> 00:20:22,720 They did. They had fifty percent more first downs, they 368 00:20:22,759 --> 00:20:27,440 had more rushing yards, more passing yards. Uh, the box 369 00:20:27,440 --> 00:20:32,240 score totally supports the final score. They held the ball 370 00:20:32,319 --> 00:20:35,559 for seven eight more minutes. So Indiana dominated that game 371 00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:38,920 and expected to win, and yet got to still look 372 00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:40,599 at what was the betting line? What did me, you, 373 00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:45,079 and everyone else the entire market agree on that? At 374 00:20:45,079 --> 00:20:49,400 that point? Oregon is still about a touchdown better? All right? 375 00:20:50,559 --> 00:20:54,319 Now we come to today, power rating wise, these two are 376 00:20:54,359 --> 00:21:01,160 neck and neck. I have Indiana at number one and 377 00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:04,000 I have Oregon tied with Ohio State at number two. 378 00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:08,599 They're so close, very close with each other, these teams. 379 00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:14,400 With all that said, when you look at the differences 380 00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:19,799 Oregon number two offensive efficiency, Indiana number three. Then you 381 00:21:19,839 --> 00:21:23,279 look at the defense Oregon number five, Indiana number two. 382 00:21:23,559 --> 00:21:26,519 So these are both top three or to five on 383 00:21:26,599 --> 00:21:31,920 both offense, both defense, very very similar teams and even 384 00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:37,319 strength of schedule very respectable. Oregon top five strength of schedule, 385 00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:41,200 Indiana top ten strength of schedule. So again, both these 386 00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:46,599 teams are legit. Both these teams deserve to be there. Now, 387 00:21:47,039 --> 00:21:50,759 I'm also the game we fired before. Make sure you 388 00:21:50,839 --> 00:21:52,720 look at that package because that may be upgraded to 389 00:21:52,799 --> 00:21:54,960 a five percent that the more I'm seeing in that game, 390 00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:57,599 the more I'm liking it as well. But back to 391 00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:00,400 Oregon and Indiana, I'll give you a PREMI and play 392 00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:03,480 I released. We're gonna look at the total here. We're 393 00:22:03,519 --> 00:22:07,400 gonna go under twenty three in the first half. That 394 00:22:07,519 --> 00:22:10,279 was a three percent play that goes along with the 395 00:22:10,319 --> 00:22:14,079 five percent on the side. And here's why. Although we're 396 00:22:14,079 --> 00:22:17,680 looking at two very potent offenses, we're looking at two 397 00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:23,480 very very legit defenses, and I think especially early on, 398 00:22:24,519 --> 00:22:27,119 we're gonna see a chess match, because if you remember 399 00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:31,160 that first game, they scored seventeen points in the first quarter. 400 00:22:32,319 --> 00:22:34,759 It started to slow down after that. They only had 401 00:22:34,799 --> 00:22:38,279 a six point second quarter, ten point third quarter, and 402 00:22:38,319 --> 00:22:41,240 then again the eruption towards the end. I think you're 403 00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:44,839 gonna get a lot lower scoring first quarter this time around. 404 00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:47,920 We're not gonna get a seventeen point first quarter, and 405 00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:51,000 that's gonna get us under that twenty three. This is 406 00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:57,440 a heavyweight title fight with the champ and the number 407 00:22:57,480 --> 00:23:01,680 one contender. There is no other second place like this 408 00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:04,319 is number one and two that should be playing each other, 409 00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:07,920 and I think that's it's gonna play out that way. 410 00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:11,039 So I like the under, and I'm only going first 411 00:23:11,079 --> 00:23:16,559 half because these are title games where losing go home 412 00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:19,799 and you're willing to throw the kitchen sink in late 413 00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:23,200 to try to win, and that's where you see a 414 00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:25,480 lot of those bullshit plays at the end where they're 415 00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:27,920 flipping the ball around and he gets some backdoor touchdown 416 00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:30,680 for no reason at all. So I'm a little more 417 00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:33,119 more confident in that first half than I am in 418 00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:35,519 the game. So let's go under twenty three for my 419 00:23:35,599 --> 00:23:36,160 best bet. 420 00:23:36,839 --> 00:23:40,240 Speaker 1: All right, guys, that has been the semi final edition 421 00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:43,559 of the College Football Playoff edition of bet on It. 422 00:23:43,599 --> 00:23:45,920 For the College Football Playoff, we're gonna get into the 423 00:23:46,039 --> 00:23:48,880 NFL Show, so make sure you guys check that out 424 00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:52,200 on the Wager Talking YouTube channel. Off for this from 425 00:23:52,519 --> 00:23:55,720 Marco D'Angelo, Yanni the Greek. I'm Kelly Stewart. Tell him 426 00:23:55,759 --> 00:23:58,839 next week for the National Championship, let's bet on it. Wow.