Speaker 1: The semi finals in the College Football Playoff coming up
next on bet on It. Welcome to bet on It,
Kelly Stewart, Yanni, the Greek, Marco DiAngelo, here to talk
all things college football Playoff. We've got three games left.
The semi finals are this week, and then of course
we've got the National Championship coming up. We're gonna get
right into it because I have not decided how I
M about these games yet, so I'm going to talk
to our two experts from wager talk dot com. I
got my odds logic screen open VR because I'm gonna
start with you. Miami opened minus too heavily juice two
and a half in a lot of spots over old
miss They're now a three and a half point favorite
at the super book minus one oh eight three one
twenty at circa total has ticked up a little bit
fifty one, with the opener now fifty two fifty one
and a half. Break down this game. I know you
have a four percent play up, so I'm not gonna
ask you too much as far as the side goes,
but I want to talk about the difference between betting
that three juiced or three and a half. Here because
I do think that is significant that some of the
sharp versus square books are telling.
Speaker 2: Us, Yeah, not as significant as in the NFL, meaning
you're not paying as much, but you're still paying more
than the ten cents that we're a customed for paying
per half point. And on most half points it's really
not worth ten cents, meaning if you're going from plus
nine to nine and a half, that ten that isn't
worth ten cents, but they're still charging you the same
ten cents, where from going from eight to eight and
a half maybe better than going from nine to nine
and a half, but still in that instance it's still
not worth ten cents. You're usually being overcharged to buy
half points, so unless you're certain exactly what the half
point costs, you need to be very cautious. But there
are some numbers where the value is there, meaning like
it going from three and a half to four, it
should cost you minus one twenty one, one twenty two,
but you could get it for one twenty in those
spots when I'm getting a plus three and a half.
I'll always tell subscribers, if you can get the half
point up to minus one twenty one twenty one, do it,
because you actually should be paying one twenty two for it.
So there are instances where you want to buy a
half a point for this game, in particular, you got
Miami in Mississippi. Here's what you should be doing. If
you're liking Miami, you gotta be looking to lay the three.
That's the key there, because you're not being asked to
lay more than one twenty five. In fact, there's minus
one nineteen's out there. There's minus one twenties out there,
as long as it doesn't get pass that one twenty
five mark, because at that point you want to lay
three and a half at minus one ten. You don't
want to lay minus three minus one thirty in college
football because you're overpaying for that and a half point.
You more or less have three and a half in
your mind. You're thinking on three I push instead of losing.
But the reality is you're laying. You're getting three minus
one thirty one thirty five what have you? So that
isn't the same bet. That's what you got to keep
your mind. You're focus on what is the juice that
they're paying me. I see guys do it all the time.
They'll buy two points and lay one fifty so now
all of a sudden, instead of a minus five or
minus five and a half, for whatever reason, they'll take
it down to three to three and a half. But
they're laying minus one fifty for that. So again the
juice is everything. If you like Miami, you want to
lay up to minus one twenty no more than one
twenty five, or go to three and a half. If
you like Mississippi, you should be looking to take the
three and a half and laying up to minus one
twenty for that three and a half. But if you
getting three and a half at minus one ten, and
you could buy that the four. I know many aren't
available on screen, but if you have off screen outs
that have three and a half, they usually you'll have
it at minus one ten. By that hook the four
on Mississippi up to minus one twenty, you are getting
so much the best of it in that spot. So now,
as far as the pick goes, here's what I'm looking
to get to the window with between now and kickoff.
I already have a four percent on the side like
Kelly touched on, but I'm looking at this total. You
have a difference, a contrast in strengths between these teams
Here's what I mean. Miami top twenty offense, top five defense,
Mississippi top twenty defense, top five offense. So Mississippi's got
the offense, Miami's got the defense. Okay, you have that
contrast in styles here. What we're looking at the total
is it's still sitting at what fifty two? All right,
about a fifty one to fifty two and a half?
What have you starting to see some public money come
in on the ounder? Not surprising? Why look at miami
recency over the last few games. Thirty eight total points
last game, thirteen points in the game before even in
the three games prior where they put up thirty eight,
thirty four and forty one, they held their opponents to seven, seven, seventeen.
So you usually need two teams to score for an
over and the problem is with Miami, no one's been
able to score on them. Here's the difference. Mississippi's going
to be able to score a little better than those
other teams. And because of the weakness of Mississippi's defense,
that Miami offense that's only put up twenty four points
ten points they had put up twenty against SMU, twenty
one against Louisville. They're gonna have an easier go of
it against Mississippi, believe it or not, putting up some points.
So I'm hoping this gets down to about fifty one,
and I'm going to fire because my power ratings have
this total at fifty three and a half, so it's
a little low now, but hopefully it gets the point
where I could get to the window, and that's about
fifty one fifty one and a half.
Speaker 1: Marco. I want to talk a little bit more about
what we saw last right, and that's always what the
general public does, so bear with me in my long
winded synopsis. Here Ole Miss down double digits to Georgia.
Thank you, Kirby Smart for your conservative play calling. And
that was not a fun one for a Georgia future
ticket holder, but Ole Miss got the job done. Now
it appears they may be being undervalued here Am I
wrong in that analysis, because hey, the comment section knows.
I've been betting against Tomorrow Crystobal in Miami all season long.
I did not versus Texas A and M because I
said I don't want either one of these teams to win,
and that's basically how they played each other. Vre mentioned
that low scoring affair break down this one for me
because I don't really know if I am being unbiased here.
I think the line is about where it needs to be.
I don't need to get involved in this game. But
being there's only three college football games left, you know,
it's kind of it's calling me, going, all right, Kelly,
what are you gonna do here?
Speaker 3: Well, Kelly is vr said, this is strength versus strength
in this game, and you're gonna take it. And look
at the two teams. It's Miami defense, which has been
absolute nails. During this current six game winning streak that
they're on. All six opponents have been held to seventeen
or fewer points. On the flip side to that, old
Miss in their seven game winning streak, has scored thirty
or more in every game. So something's got to give
for Miami. Here's the problem. They need to get more
out of Carson Beck than they did in the two
playoff games. So far, he's passed for one hundred and
three yards and one hundred thirty eight yards. Now he's
had a high completion percentage and a lot of completions,
but they've been all of the dink and dunk variety.
They've been able to get away with that because a
they've had the leads or been tied in both of
the playoff games, and they've been low scoring games, so
they didn't have to force the ball up the field.
That's not gonna happen against Mississippi. I do not see
them shutting Mississippi down completely. Georgia has a good defense,
not anywhere as good as Miami's, but they have a
very good defense, adequate, let me put it that way,
and they couldn't contain old myths. And Georgia, as you said,
had the lead. I think in the third quarter they
had like a nine point lead and the ball and
had an opportunity to break the game back open, and
they couldn't get it done. The other part of it
is that you can't shut down this old mispassing game.
Now everybody keeps waiting. And here's where the narrative of
is Kelly where I think that we're seeing a little
bit of biased into the number. And you talk about
the recency bias. Everybody talks about old miss There's two
things that you bring out. The big story, obviously is Okay,
when's it going to be the game they miss Lane Kiffin. Okay,
everybody's waiting for that to happen. It hasn't happened thus far.
They've had two games. The first game they ruled it out.
You know, everybody just dismissed it because they beat Tulane,
and everybody said, you know, that was the courtesy, you know,
invite you know Tulane and James Madison. Neither one of
those teams belonged and all of that. That's an argument
for a different day. But they steam rolled down a
lot of people, and myself included. I was on Georgia
last week. I thought Georgia would be able. I thought
that would be the spot where they would miss Lane Kiffin,
and they didn't. And the quarterback really impressed me. Chambliss.
He was like a cat with nine lives. He's not
really a running quarterback, but he is so tough to
bring down. When you do come with pressure, he extends
the play and he finds somebody open. And this team
continues to throw for three over three hundred yards per
game five straight games. Now, So if you want to
go ahead and throw out the TWU Lane game because
it was a mismatch, all right, it's still four straight games.
Of over three hundred yards passing. Here's the problem. Can
Carson Beck deliver if they're behind. It's easy to play
when you're running downhill with a lead, but if you've
got to come uphill, you don't make a stop on
Old Miss, and all of a sudden you're down seven
ten points. Is he going to be able to move
the chains for Miami or is he gonna have to
force the issue? I go back and watch. You know,
the last game was great, but go back and look
at the Texas A and M game. I realized it
was played and win, but that was a horrible game. Offensively,
I just don't see them getting enough stops on Mississippi.
That's gonna make me feel comfortable taking Carson back, and
that's gonna land me on taking Old Miss plus to
three or three and a half. And obviously, because they're
both out there, this is where you got a sharp
you know, shop for your best line. Half a point's important.
If you like Miami, course you're gonna look for the three.
If you like Old Miss, you're gonna look for the
three and a half. And I think you're gonna see
if you wait the game day. I think it's gonna
get back to three and a half. I think when
the public actually gets involved, because right now, the public Kelly,
you know it, especially places that are playing where they
got to post their money up. They're not tying their
money up for Thursday and Friday games when they got
to bet Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday college basketball and NBA basketball.
Their bank rolls don't allow them to do that. They're
gonna come in on game day, and I think they're
gonna come in on Miami because they love that Miami
defense of what they've done in the first two games.
So for me, it's old miss plus the point.
Speaker 1: All right, let's get on to the next game. This
one's gonna be really interesting. Oregon currently a wow headed
up to four right now at some prominent sharp books.
That's gonna be interesting up from three and a half
pretty much across the board still, but that one is
looming there on the odd screen tells you where this
one is going. Forty seven was the opener, forty seven
and a half, even a forty eight starting to pop
up right now, Marco, I'm gonna go back to you situationally,
this is an interesting one, right. I love Kirk Signetti
and I may take a lot of flak for that,
because the guy's gonna Hey, he's very stoic in an
asshole way. Can I say that, like, he doesn't smile,
he's never happy. You got Bernando Mendoz on the sideline,
who could not be a happier guy, and then you've
got Kirk Signetti. But I love the ice in his veins.
As an underdog. I bet against him several times this
year as a favorite, went two and one against the spread,
no outright winners. Though Iowa couldn't get it done for me,
Illinois couldn't get it done for me. Usc couldn't get
it done for me. But now they're a favorite, and
they've been a favorite. They just waxed Alabama as a
seven and a half point favorite, and that one got
steamed late. I was stout. I teased Indiana with a
bunch of NFL. I know it's against the rules. You
can't do that here. You cannot tease either one of
these college football games. So, Marco, from a situational perspective,
how do you think this Indiana team goes from the
hunter as the underdog for the last two seasons to
now the hunt, the hunted by the Oregon Ducks, who
are also looking for revenge.
Speaker 3: Well, Kelly, if this was the first time, I would
be a little bit more concerned. They were a favorite
last week against Alabama and they took care of business.
Because that is an angle that I use a lot.
You know, when a team wins outright as an underdog
and then all of a sudden they're in the role
of the favorite, different you know, dynamic for them whenever,
just from the mental standpoint of it. But there's two
things we're gonna start with. The first thing that we
got to look at and I realized it was earlier
in the season, but they played in Oregon. Okay, in Oregon,
I believe was a six and a half or seven
point favorite. That line did come down a little bit
on game day with sharp money coming in on Indiana,
and I had Indiana in that game. I like that
the spot with them as an underdog. But you're going
from Oregon being let's go to the low number of
six and a half point favorite at home to now
we're playing on a neutral field and we've got Indiana
minus three and a half. And you said you're seeing
a couple of fours popping up that's a ten point
swing from the first meeting.
Speaker 1: Is it too much?
Speaker 3: You know, we always talk about, you know, overreaction to
what you just saw. Now, what we just saw, as
you said, was a complete and utter domination by Indiana.
I mean it was a blowout score and it wasn't
even that close. I mean they dominated in every facet
of that game. But what impressed me about it when
I watched that game, and what impressed me about this
team every time I've seen them play, even with a
big lead like they had. You talk about the look
on Kurt Signetti's face, that stare, that whatever you want
to call it. Look at the sidelines, did you see
a single player, you know, yucking it up and high
five and one another and you know, in enjoying the moment,
they know they have two more games. This is a
team on a mission. I really don't want to step
in front of them. You've got two teams that got
great quarterbacks. And you know what the side story to
this game, and it's a great one. This couldn't determine
the order they go in the NFL Draft, because most
people think these are two of the best quarterbacks coming
out of college football this year. Is it gonna be
Mendoza or is it gonna be Dante more Who's gonna
get the number one draft pick, or I should say
the first quarterback drafted. It's going to be an interesting game.
But I look at Oregon in what they did in
their win. They beat Texas Tech, okay, but they did
benefit from four Texas Tech turnovers. Oregon couldn't get a
ground game going in that game. And I know Texas
Tech has a good defense, but have you seen this
Indiana defense, not just in the last game against Alabama,
all year long. They totally shut down the Alabama run game. Now,
there is no Alabama run game, so let's put that
out there right away. But if you look all year,
you know Indiana held Ohio State to fifty eight yards
on twenty six rushes in the Big Ten Championship game.
Only two teams teams rushed for more than one hundred
yards this year against them. This Indiana defense. When you
think about Indiana, and because they've won by so many
big scores, everybody thinks about their offense. It's the defense
that makes this team go. And if Oregon becomes one
dimensional and Dante Moore's got to carry the whole team.
I don't know that they get it done. I'm not
stepping in front of them. You look at the Indiana defense.
Twelve of fourteen opponents fifteen points or less this year.
I'm gonna go ahead and take Indiana here. I'm gonna
ride with Kurt Signetti. You know why he wins? Google it.
Speaker 1: Okay, that made me laugh. Fair enough, Marco, he does win.
He is a winner. Ah, Marco really quickly before I
ask VR his thoughts, what are you got going on
over at wager talk dot com for the college football playoffs?
Speaker 3: Well, we've got we'll have some action. We'll have definitely
a premium play in one of the two games, maybe
both of them. Also, big weekend in NFL playoff action.
We hit another five percent play last week. I don't
pop them all the time, but we did know it.
We're forty one and eighteen with those plays. Now, we
had Seattle over San Francisco Saturday night. We've got one
that we're looking at watch watching weather watching line could
happen on the weekend, So stay tuned later in the
week on that. But the best way to do it, Kelly,
not only for myself, for VR, any of the cappers
at wager Talk seven days for the price of three.
Can't get a better deal than that. You're gonna get
seven days all access, and right now it's the best
time everything is happening. You got college basketball, NBA hockey,
you've got the final three games of college football, You've
got the NFL playoffs. It's an exciting time of the year.
You won't miss a single play and you'll get them
when you're on an all access client. The benefit of that, Kelly,
is you don't have to wait until game day. You know,
when you're buying a package or something. The minute we
release a game, it goes directly into the system and
you get an email from wager Talk with the play
so you can jump on the line as soon as
we release the game. That's the benefit of being an
all access subscriber. So head over to wager Talk, pick
your favorite capper, grab a seven day package for the
price of three.
Speaker 1: All right, I VR. I know because I did last
call with you last weekend. You have a five percent
play on this game. But I'd love some of your
opinions from a power rating perspective here, because we've been
talking about those all season long. Strength of schedule comes
into play as well. Plus, these two teams, as Marco
touched on, have played each other before. How do those
types of things weigh into your handicap of this game?
Speaker 2: Well, number one, you gotta I look more at what
was the betting line in that first game as opposed
to what the final score was was? So what was
the betting line? First? In that game, you had Oregon
at home minus six and a half against Indiana. They
lost that game by ten, all right, so they underperformed
the betting market by close to three touchdowns. And then
you get closer to the box score. Did Indiana really dominate? Yeah?
They did. They had fifty percent more first downs, they
had more rushing yards, more passing yards. Uh, the box
score totally supports the final score. They held the ball
for seven eight more minutes. So Indiana dominated that game
and expected to win, and yet got to still look
at what was the betting line? What did me, you,
and everyone else the entire market agree on that? At
that point? Oregon is still about a touchdown better? All right?
Now we come to today, power rating wise, these two are
neck and neck. I have Indiana at number one and
I have Oregon tied with Ohio State at number two.
They're so close, very close with each other, these teams.
With all that said, when you look at the differences
Oregon number two offensive efficiency, Indiana number three. Then you
look at the defense Oregon number five, Indiana number two.
So these are both top three or to five on
both offense, both defense, very very similar teams and even
strength of schedule very respectable. Oregon top five strength of schedule,
Indiana top ten strength of schedule. So again, both these
teams are legit. Both these teams deserve to be there. Now,
I'm also the game we fired before. Make sure you
look at that package because that may be upgraded to
a five percent that the more I'm seeing in that game,
the more I'm liking it as well. But back to
Oregon and Indiana, I'll give you a PREMI and play
I released. We're gonna look at the total here. We're
gonna go under twenty three in the first half. That
was a three percent play that goes along with the
five percent on the side. And here's why. Although we're
looking at two very potent offenses, we're looking at two
very very legit defenses, and I think especially early on,
we're gonna see a chess match, because if you remember
that first game, they scored seventeen points in the first quarter.
It started to slow down after that. They only had
a six point second quarter, ten point third quarter, and
then again the eruption towards the end. I think you're
gonna get a lot lower scoring first quarter this time around.
We're not gonna get a seventeen point first quarter, and
that's gonna get us under that twenty three. This is
a heavyweight title fight with the champ and the number
one contender. There is no other second place like this
is number one and two that should be playing each other,
and I think that's it's gonna play out that way.
So I like the under, and I'm only going first
half because these are title games where losing go home
and you're willing to throw the kitchen sink in late
to try to win, and that's where you see a
lot of those bullshit plays at the end where they're
flipping the ball around and he gets some backdoor touchdown
for no reason at all. So I'm a little more
more confident in that first half than I am in
the game. So let's go under twenty three for my
best bet.
Speaker 1: All right, guys, that has been the semi final edition
of the College Football Playoff edition of bet on It.
For the College Football Playoff, we're gonna get into the
NFL Show, so make sure you guys check that out
on the Wager Talking YouTube channel. Off for this from
Marco D'Angelo, Yanni the Greek. I'm Kelly Stewart. Tell him
next week for the National Championship, let's bet on it. Wow.