WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.120 --> 00:00:02.720 And we are kind of seeing them move up right 2 00:00:02.759 --> 00:00:05.400 now in tandem with the key stakeholders. 3 00:00:05.440 --> 00:00:08.599 So it's actually the massive wallet's. 4 00:00:08.160 --> 00:00:12.000 The ten k or more that are dumping to everybody 5 00:00:12.080 --> 00:00:15.480 else right now, so everyone else is trying to accumulate more. 6 00:00:16.839 --> 00:00:19.199 I'm still a little worried about this tiny little drop, 7 00:00:19.280 --> 00:00:22.839 but the bigger worry is that retailers are getting a 8 00:00:22.879 --> 00:00:28.679 little greedy here believing that this is the dip to buy. 9 00:00:30.399 --> 00:00:33.759 Hey, everybody, welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcast. Joining me 10 00:00:34.000 --> 00:00:36.640 is Brian from Sentiment, and as you all know, we're 11 00:00:36.640 --> 00:00:39.200 going to do a deep dive into the metrics around bitcoin, 12 00:00:39.359 --> 00:00:42.679 xrpe theorem, Solana and much more to see what is 13 00:00:42.679 --> 00:00:45.880 happening in this bull market and what may happen next. Brian, 14 00:00:45.920 --> 00:00:47.200 good to see you. Happy Friday. 15 00:00:47.679 --> 00:00:48.960 Happy Friday to you, Tony. 16 00:00:49.200 --> 00:00:52.119 It's the Trump and Elon show this week and all 17 00:00:52.159 --> 00:00:52.960 eyes are on them. 18 00:00:53.679 --> 00:00:56.280 Yeah, it's funny that that popped up, and of course 19 00:00:56.320 --> 00:00:58.799 it's going to affect markets. The world's witches man, the 20 00:00:58.840 --> 00:01:03.759 world's most powerful man battling. The topic is of course 21 00:01:03.759 --> 00:01:05.959 on the debt bill, or I shouldn't say the debt bill, 22 00:01:06.040 --> 00:01:09.760 even though that's what it is the spending bill, you know, 23 00:01:09.879 --> 00:01:12.159 and that's going to have an effect on markets. But 24 00:01:13.400 --> 00:01:15.760 you know, it's crazy. I don't know if this is 25 00:01:15.799 --> 00:01:17.000 all a show or is legit. 26 00:01:18.319 --> 00:01:21.480 Yeah, I think everyone has their own opinions. A lot 27 00:01:21.480 --> 00:01:25.200 of people are just spamming popcorn emojis because the drama 28 00:01:25.319 --> 00:01:28.400 is too good to be true for them, regardless of 29 00:01:28.439 --> 00:01:33.200 how people feel about Trump and or Elon Musk. You know, 30 00:01:33.239 --> 00:01:35.079 when you see two of the most powerful people in 31 00:01:35.120 --> 00:01:38.560 the world suddenly engaging in a very public he said, 32 00:01:38.640 --> 00:01:43.280 she said, it causes havoc and it creates chaos that 33 00:01:45.120 --> 00:01:48.480 makes markets even more unpredictable, on top of all of 34 00:01:48.519 --> 00:01:50.719 the tariff stuff that still. 35 00:01:50.439 --> 00:01:52.640 Exists and has existed the last two months. 36 00:01:53.840 --> 00:01:56.840 Yeah, this is such a weird period, man. I am 37 00:01:56.879 --> 00:02:00.480 trying to, like, in principle, I understand them. You know, 38 00:02:00.519 --> 00:02:02.920 I viewed things from a macro perspective, so I'm not 39 00:02:03.040 --> 00:02:05.400 like leaving sleep. I'm not nervous or anything like that. 40 00:02:05.840 --> 00:02:08.520 But it's also like, God, this is so annoying, like 41 00:02:08.599 --> 00:02:11.719 all these things that are high happening. The tariff uncertainty 42 00:02:11.879 --> 00:02:14.960 pushed the natural correction out of Q four way down 43 00:02:15.000 --> 00:02:18.159 than we expected. We v shaped recovered out of it, 44 00:02:18.560 --> 00:02:21.039 then you have this happen and then big one's pulling back. 45 00:02:21.120 --> 00:02:23.120 So it's yeah, it's crazy, man. 46 00:02:23.280 --> 00:02:25.639 I would I would at least argue that this is 47 00:02:25.680 --> 00:02:29.240 not nearly on the same level as like, you know, 48 00:02:29.319 --> 00:02:33.960 the tariff announcement or the even like the drama with 49 00:02:34.080 --> 00:02:38.360 Jerome Powell. Right, even though Elon Musk is much more 50 00:02:38.400 --> 00:02:43.039 well known and more powerful in a different way than 51 00:02:43.120 --> 00:02:49.400 Jerome Powell. Jerome Powell directly has to do with the 52 00:02:49.400 --> 00:02:53.400 interest rates of the most prominent country in the world 53 00:02:53.960 --> 00:02:58.039 to most people, and that's still a much bigger deal 54 00:02:58.120 --> 00:03:01.560 than you know. However, Petty, you think this trauma is 55 00:03:01.599 --> 00:03:05.039 between Elon and Trump, it's more of a you know, 56 00:03:05.120 --> 00:03:08.199 the the main sidekick that everyone knew was in Trump's 57 00:03:08.240 --> 00:03:10.520 corner is no longer in his corner, and what's that 58 00:03:10.599 --> 00:03:13.560 going to do? But no one quite knows exactly. It's 59 00:03:13.680 --> 00:03:17.280 just kind of like a bit of a shakeup. I 60 00:03:17.280 --> 00:03:19.639 think that's how most people are interpreting it right now. 61 00:03:20.280 --> 00:03:22.560 Yeah, for sure. And look, I've been looking at the 62 00:03:22.560 --> 00:03:25.599 bitcoin chart and on the daily like, just as an 63 00:03:25.639 --> 00:03:27.879 example of just one metric, but the RSI has been 64 00:03:27.879 --> 00:03:30.479 in a down trend so expected from sort of pull 65 00:03:30.520 --> 00:03:34.120 back on the price, but you know, with something like 66 00:03:34.159 --> 00:03:37.120 this happening, be a catalyst to drive even further down 67 00:03:37.159 --> 00:03:40.520 than we anticipated. Right, So maybe on that note, we 68 00:03:40.560 --> 00:03:42.840 could start looking at some bitcoin metrics and what you're 69 00:03:42.879 --> 00:03:45.919 seeing as far as sentiment. Are people turning bearers? Are 70 00:03:45.919 --> 00:03:48.319 they getting fearful? I see some calls out there at 71 00:03:48.319 --> 00:03:51.560 the top is in, the top is in, And it's 72 00:03:51.680 --> 00:03:54.240 just interesting how people are reacting to all of this. 73 00:03:55.000 --> 00:03:55.280 Yeah. 74 00:03:55.319 --> 00:03:59.840 I mean, we've talked about the how our feeds look 75 00:04:00.080 --> 00:04:04.319 versus the reality when we scrape all of the data altogether, 76 00:04:04.680 --> 00:04:07.280 and it's actually not that bad in either direction. People 77 00:04:07.280 --> 00:04:12.759 are pretty neutral right now. Granted this is kind of 78 00:04:12.919 --> 00:04:14.319 just the one day. 79 00:04:14.360 --> 00:04:14.560 Look. 80 00:04:14.599 --> 00:04:17.360 If I reduce it to like four hours, we'll see 81 00:04:17.399 --> 00:04:19.560 a lot more noise. And there is a pretty big 82 00:04:19.600 --> 00:04:24.480 spike right here. However, it doesn't look excuse me, it 83 00:04:24.480 --> 00:04:28.519 doesn't look like there's anything super euphoria related. The last 84 00:04:28.519 --> 00:04:32.040 time we really saw that was you know, arguably around 85 00:04:32.079 --> 00:04:37.120 May thirteenth, or after the real rebound around April twenty fourth, 86 00:04:37.160 --> 00:04:43.959 twenty fifth. So I don't see people being too swayed. 87 00:04:43.560 --> 00:04:44.879 By this drama either. Way. 88 00:04:44.959 --> 00:04:47.040 I think, if anything, there was a bit of fear 89 00:04:48.040 --> 00:04:51.839 after the price dropped and people were attributing it to 90 00:04:52.079 --> 00:04:57.920 the Elon and Trump breakup alleged, But I don't necessarily 91 00:04:57.959 --> 00:05:03.879 think that it's going to cause nearly as much chaos 92 00:05:03.920 --> 00:05:07.079 as as some people have expressed on social media. 93 00:05:08.800 --> 00:05:12.199 What are the whales doing? Because I saw on one 94 00:05:12.199 --> 00:05:16.519 of the awn chain metric here from Santaman a big 95 00:05:16.560 --> 00:05:19.480 spike in whale accumulation while it's with ten or more bitcoin, 96 00:05:19.560 --> 00:05:20.720 which is fascinating. 97 00:05:21.439 --> 00:05:21.759 Yeah. 98 00:05:21.800 --> 00:05:25.720 So this is specifically the ten to ten thousand BTC line, 99 00:05:26.040 --> 00:05:30.000 which is more or less the key stakeholder tier in 100 00:05:30.399 --> 00:05:34.439 modern days with bitcoin app anywhere between like fifty two 101 00:05:35.639 --> 00:05:38.480 whatever one twelve k the all time high. This is 102 00:05:39.160 --> 00:05:43.040 the tier that tends to move markets most prominently. And 103 00:05:43.399 --> 00:05:46.199 they went on a hell of a run between May 104 00:05:46.240 --> 00:05:50.839 twenty sixth up until June third, where they accumulated just 105 00:05:50.959 --> 00:05:54.519 about one hundred thousand btc during that week, and then 106 00:05:55.120 --> 00:05:57.040 over the last couple of days they dropped about a 107 00:05:57.120 --> 00:05:59.439 quarter of that twenty six point six k. 108 00:06:00.600 --> 00:06:02.920 So still a good sign. 109 00:06:03.160 --> 00:06:05.759 I mean, you talk about the last six months and 110 00:06:05.839 --> 00:06:08.560 just draw a line like this, they're moving in the 111 00:06:08.600 --> 00:06:13.079 right direction. Meanwhile, what we are hoping to see is 112 00:06:13.120 --> 00:06:16.759 a little more dumping from the small retail traders, because 113 00:06:17.240 --> 00:06:19.920 just as much as this is a good correlative indicator, 114 00:06:20.480 --> 00:06:24.079 the to one BTC wallets are a good counter indicator, 115 00:06:24.399 --> 00:06:27.040 and we are kind of seeing them move up right 116 00:06:27.079 --> 00:06:30.399 now in tandem with the key stakeholders. So it's actually 117 00:06:30.439 --> 00:06:34.519 the massive wallets, the ten k or more that are 118 00:06:34.759 --> 00:06:38.600 dumping to everybody else right now, so everyone else is 119 00:06:38.600 --> 00:06:42.319 trying to accumulate more. I'm still a little worried about 120 00:06:42.319 --> 00:06:45.959 this tiny little drop, but the bigger worry is that 121 00:06:46.040 --> 00:06:49.120 retailers are getting a little greedy here believing. 122 00:06:48.680 --> 00:06:49.959 That this is the dip to buy. 123 00:06:50.600 --> 00:06:52.920 And historically, if the retailers believe this is the dip 124 00:06:52.959 --> 00:06:55.720 to buy, it's usually the next one when they're a 125 00:06:55.759 --> 00:06:57.959 little more jaded and afraid to buy the dip that 126 00:06:58.240 --> 00:07:00.560 is the actual dip to buy. 127 00:07:00.560 --> 00:07:03.160 Interesting, so I feel like we have to give this 128 00:07:03.240 --> 00:07:06.480 like another week to see which direction both go in. Right. 129 00:07:07.120 --> 00:07:08.600 Yeah, I hate to give it kind of a wait 130 00:07:08.680 --> 00:07:12.680 and see, because you know, we all want definitive data. 131 00:07:12.800 --> 00:07:17.079 But this truly is such a weird time where you 132 00:07:17.120 --> 00:07:21.079 know that ten to twenty percent chance that all of 133 00:07:21.120 --> 00:07:24.920 this Elon and Trump stuff is orchestrated. You know, everyone 134 00:07:24.920 --> 00:07:30.480 has their own opinions that could just cause so much 135 00:07:30.519 --> 00:07:34.639 confusion and overreactions, and you know, for all we know, 136 00:07:34.680 --> 00:07:38.120 Trump is waiting to see how people react and then 137 00:07:39.199 --> 00:07:41.600 makes a big announcement on Monday. You know, we've seen 138 00:07:41.639 --> 00:07:43.920 that plenty of times with the tariffs the last few months. 139 00:07:45.560 --> 00:07:48.480 So it's just it's so difficult to tell based on 140 00:07:48.480 --> 00:07:50.720 on chain metrics, but we can at least say that 141 00:07:51.480 --> 00:07:56.160 social wise, like all eyes are on this Elon and 142 00:07:56.199 --> 00:07:59.240 Trump drama. We have this new trending story STAB that's 143 00:07:59.240 --> 00:08:04.759 in beta and it's all about the Epstein file stuff 144 00:08:04.759 --> 00:08:08.560 because Elon came out and told everyone that Trump was 145 00:08:08.600 --> 00:08:12.399 on the list after their their fallout happened, and then 146 00:08:12.439 --> 00:08:14.639 the beef between Musk and Trump. You're in third so 147 00:08:14.720 --> 00:08:17.800 you can see just how much, you know, people are 148 00:08:17.800 --> 00:08:22.199 talking about it, even Doge because Elon mentioned that a 149 00:08:22.279 --> 00:08:25.480 third party could be created in the US named after Doge. 150 00:08:25.959 --> 00:08:28.639 Whatever your opinion is on that, there's there's just a 151 00:08:28.639 --> 00:08:31.680 lot of talk that all seems to be circulated around that, 152 00:08:32.159 --> 00:08:34.720 and a little bit with the Circle IPO because it 153 00:08:34.840 --> 00:08:37.679 came out of the gates super hot with a one 154 00:08:37.720 --> 00:08:40.519 hund and sixty percent rise, which is super rare for 155 00:08:40.559 --> 00:08:41.320 the stock market. 156 00:08:42.080 --> 00:08:44.360 Oh yeah, for sure. That was a you know, the 157 00:08:44.679 --> 00:08:47.200 days started off with the good news of that ray 158 00:08:47.600 --> 00:08:50.840 and everybody's oh man, this is awesome. Yeah, another crypto 159 00:08:50.879 --> 00:08:53.960 company goes public, and then you had the Elon Trump 160 00:08:54.000 --> 00:08:56.080 drama just overshadow everything. 161 00:08:55.799 --> 00:08:58.279 Of course. Yeah. 162 00:08:58.399 --> 00:09:01.759 One of the metrics we looked at sign was the MVRV. 163 00:09:01.799 --> 00:09:04.279 If I'm not mistaken around bitcoin, I'm curious what that 164 00:09:04.320 --> 00:09:04.720 looks like. 165 00:09:05.399 --> 00:09:09.240 Yeah, let's look at how average traders are doing right now, 166 00:09:09.519 --> 00:09:12.480 because in a zero sum game, as we've talked about 167 00:09:12.480 --> 00:09:16.120 in previous calls, Tony, you want to see the mvrvs 168 00:09:16.159 --> 00:09:20.519 mostly in negative range where traders are not profiting. Therefore 169 00:09:20.639 --> 00:09:24.440 you'd be buying in at less risk. But right now 170 00:09:24.879 --> 00:09:27.279 the thirty day is sitting ride at about zero, so 171 00:09:27.320 --> 00:09:29.919 it's about as neutral as you can get. Meanwhile, the 172 00:09:29.960 --> 00:09:32.879 long term it has fallen a bit. It's at plus 173 00:09:32.919 --> 00:09:37.039 sixteen point nine percent now after being as high as 174 00:09:37.320 --> 00:09:40.799 plus twenty seven back on May twenty first, So the 175 00:09:40.879 --> 00:09:42.559 last couple of weeks has brought it back down to 176 00:09:42.600 --> 00:09:45.879 earth a little bit. I'd still love to see both 177 00:09:45.879 --> 00:09:50.919 of these lines below zero as a great sign that 178 00:09:51.000 --> 00:09:53.200 we are bottoming and it's a perfect time to buy, 179 00:09:54.440 --> 00:09:57.120 just like we saw when it was max fheartime on 180 00:09:57.159 --> 00:10:00.879 April ninth or so eighth, whatever your time zone was. 181 00:10:01.720 --> 00:10:07.399 So overall it's it's neutral to just slightly concerning, depending 182 00:10:07.480 --> 00:10:09.159 on the timeframe you want to invest. 183 00:10:10.440 --> 00:10:12.840 That makes sense. Yeah, it seems like we got to 184 00:10:12.879 --> 00:10:15.039 give some more time for all of these things. Maybe 185 00:10:15.039 --> 00:10:16.919 it's a week or two weeks to look back and 186 00:10:16.919 --> 00:10:23.279 see where things find there this definitive position, I guess. 187 00:10:24.799 --> 00:10:27.159 And then one of the other things we looked at 188 00:10:27.200 --> 00:10:31.000 was ETF inflows and things along those lines. I think 189 00:10:31.039 --> 00:10:34.799 I saw reports that there has been outflows. 190 00:10:34.799 --> 00:10:35.240 Correct. 191 00:10:35.320 --> 00:10:38.799 Yeah, so three or four out of the last six 192 00:10:39.240 --> 00:10:42.679 stock market days, not including the day we're recording Friday, 193 00:10:43.720 --> 00:10:47.720 we're seeing more money moving out than moving in. And 194 00:10:47.759 --> 00:10:53.399 this is actually some pretty sizable outflow data here. The 195 00:10:53.519 --> 00:10:56.440 dates on my chart are actually one day delayed, so 196 00:10:56.639 --> 00:10:59.679 when I'm highlighting this May twenty eighth, candle, it's actually 197 00:10:59.679 --> 00:11:01.240 made twenty ninth data, et cetera. 198 00:11:01.799 --> 00:11:03.080 But either way, you look. 199 00:11:02.960 --> 00:11:05.720 At May twenty ninth, three hundred and forty point seven 200 00:11:05.759 --> 00:11:10.720 million dollars moving out in net. The next day, May thirtieth, 201 00:11:11.159 --> 00:11:14.559 just about six hundred million dollars moving out, the next 202 00:11:14.600 --> 00:11:18.039 day to sixty seven point five million moving out. That's 203 00:11:18.159 --> 00:11:23.480 June second, and then yesterday, June fifth, two hundred sixty seven, 204 00:11:23.919 --> 00:11:27.519 two hundred and sixty one point seven million dollars moving out. 205 00:11:27.720 --> 00:11:29.879 The one inflow day was June first, and that was 206 00:11:29.919 --> 00:11:32.480 about three sixty eight million, and then a very small 207 00:11:32.519 --> 00:11:35.600 one the next day, June second, which was I'm sorry, 208 00:11:35.679 --> 00:11:39.159 June fourth, which was eighty seven million dollars. Now a 209 00:11:39.200 --> 00:11:41.799 lot more outflow than inflow. That's definitely a net of 210 00:11:42.000 --> 00:11:45.679 over a billion dollars over the last week or so. 211 00:11:46.960 --> 00:11:50.440 Interesting. So if we're looking at some of the historical patterns, 212 00:11:50.480 --> 00:11:52.840 it seems like we may have room to go down 213 00:11:52.840 --> 00:11:55.879 a bit more for Bitcoin before we find some sort 214 00:11:55.879 --> 00:11:57.919 of bottom and then keep going higher. 215 00:11:58.639 --> 00:12:00.679 Yeah, as you know, we don't take to finive stances 216 00:12:00.720 --> 00:12:03.200 or give investment advice, but based on the metrics we're 217 00:12:03.200 --> 00:12:07.480 seeing now, it's kind of a wait and see combined 218 00:12:07.519 --> 00:12:12.519 with a little more concern based on where we're at. 219 00:12:12.559 --> 00:12:17.039 But that said, you know, we're already retraced, give or 220 00:12:17.039 --> 00:12:20.080 take about ten percent from our all time high, maybe 221 00:12:20.120 --> 00:12:26.759 eleven percent. And when that happens, you're in a position 222 00:12:26.799 --> 00:12:30.519 where you could you could easily buy at a justifiable, 223 00:12:31.120 --> 00:12:35.879 justifiable position if you're on the short term trading strategy 224 00:12:35.960 --> 00:12:37.919 and you want to just try to see if you 225 00:12:37.960 --> 00:12:40.279 can get it back up to one oh five or 226 00:12:40.279 --> 00:12:43.440 one of six or so and then take some profit. 227 00:12:43.679 --> 00:12:45.799 You know, there's there's argument that we could see that 228 00:12:45.919 --> 00:12:48.840 over the next week, but from a mid and long 229 00:12:48.960 --> 00:12:53.159 term perspective, until things change a little bit, I still 230 00:12:53.159 --> 00:12:56.240 don't like that the three sixty five day MVRV is 231 00:12:56.279 --> 00:12:58.840 as high as it is, and I definitely don't like 232 00:12:58.879 --> 00:13:01.360 that there's a lot of money moving out of utfs. 233 00:13:01.879 --> 00:13:06.679 That's a pretty big surprise seeing especially this level coming out. 234 00:13:07.759 --> 00:13:11.799 Interesting. Yeah, I have a I could be absolutely wrong, 235 00:13:11.840 --> 00:13:14.360 but I have a feeling based on certain metrics like this, 236 00:13:15.200 --> 00:13:19.080 there's more downside and my thesis overall is that bull 237 00:13:19.159 --> 00:13:21.039 market's not over. But once again, I don't have a 238 00:13:21.039 --> 00:13:24.320 crystal ball, but you know, it seems like there's definitely 239 00:13:24.320 --> 00:13:26.360 a cool down period here and I don't know what 240 00:13:26.440 --> 00:13:28.799 the catalysts. You know, sometimes there's a saying that show 241 00:13:28.879 --> 00:13:31.159 me the charts and I'll tell you the news. Right, 242 00:13:32.000 --> 00:13:34.679 prices going down. You got negative news, but then it 243 00:13:34.720 --> 00:13:37.399 bottoms out, starts moving up. Then the price turns positive. 244 00:13:37.440 --> 00:13:40.120 I mean, you know, the news turns positive. It's it's 245 00:13:40.159 --> 00:13:41.720 interesting how all that works. 246 00:13:42.080 --> 00:13:46.960 Yeah, I mean, markets are constantly designed to maximally punish 247 00:13:47.159 --> 00:13:51.559 the emotional traders out there. So right now, as we saw, 248 00:13:51.639 --> 00:13:54.720 there's kind of a mixed reaction. Traders are kind of 249 00:13:54.720 --> 00:14:00.639 equally bullish versus bearish. Once some catalyst comes out, you know, 250 00:14:01.480 --> 00:14:06.720 Elon makes some even bigger bombshell about the financial standing 251 00:14:07.200 --> 00:14:11.279 of the country rather than just personal attacks. Trump comes 252 00:14:11.320 --> 00:14:17.120 out and proclaims another tariff demand unless his needs are 253 00:14:17.159 --> 00:14:18.240 met on you. 254 00:14:18.519 --> 00:14:19.080 Who knows. 255 00:14:20.039 --> 00:14:21.399 Those are the kinds of things that are going to 256 00:14:21.440 --> 00:14:25.720 swing emotions all over again, and we get a you know, 257 00:14:26.039 --> 00:14:27.159 another wave. 258 00:14:27.159 --> 00:14:29.440 Of super greed or super fear. 259 00:14:29.759 --> 00:14:32.759 Especially if that news comes out and then you see 260 00:14:33.200 --> 00:14:37.000 the price initially react and then people start to associate 261 00:14:37.039 --> 00:14:37.559 it with like. 262 00:14:38.080 --> 00:14:39.679 Okay, this is positive news. 263 00:14:39.919 --> 00:14:42.440 And if they all think it's positive, that's when it 264 00:14:42.440 --> 00:14:45.000 becomes a negative story. I know it sounds weird, but 265 00:14:45.080 --> 00:14:46.320 that generally is how it works. 266 00:14:46.919 --> 00:14:51.759 Mm hmm, yeah, crazy stuff, man. What do you see 267 00:14:51.840 --> 00:14:56.559 on the tether supply side of things? And I know 268 00:14:56.919 --> 00:14:59.440 that's something we've monitored, the supply and exchanges. 269 00:15:00.600 --> 00:15:04.360 Yeah, So I'll do the overall supplying exchanges here, and 270 00:15:04.399 --> 00:15:09.799 I'll also add the ratio of its overall supply on exchanges, 271 00:15:10.080 --> 00:15:12.120 and we'll just look at the last year. And it's 272 00:15:12.200 --> 00:15:17.519 pretty pretty jarring. Actually, the amount of supply and exchanges 273 00:15:17.559 --> 00:15:22.200 has fallen since its peak just about four months ago 274 00:15:22.360 --> 00:15:25.879 February fifth. We've seen about ten point two to one 275 00:15:26.000 --> 00:15:30.440 billion dollars worth of teather moving off of exchanges and 276 00:15:30.559 --> 00:15:33.519 about thirteen point nine to five percent of all tether 277 00:15:33.879 --> 00:15:38.960 moving off exchanges. So this is this is indicative that 278 00:15:39.000 --> 00:15:41.799 there's just less buying power on exchanges at the moment, 279 00:15:42.360 --> 00:15:44.600 and it it the trend really has not stopped. 280 00:15:45.240 --> 00:15:47.799 And would you be able to zoom out on that chart, 281 00:15:47.879 --> 00:15:49.799 like let's say for the past year. 282 00:15:50.600 --> 00:15:52.559 This is this actually is the last year I can 283 00:15:52.600 --> 00:15:54.879 go way back to, like twenty twenty. 284 00:15:55.080 --> 00:15:58.320 Interesting, yeah, because I'm curious, like what's the pattern here? 285 00:15:58.519 --> 00:16:02.679 So it's most moved up, especially in late twenty twenty four, 286 00:16:02.799 --> 00:16:07.200 Like this was right before Trump got elected, and then 287 00:16:07.240 --> 00:16:09.679 it just surged all the way up until as inauguration, 288 00:16:10.759 --> 00:16:12.759 even a couple of weeks after as where it topped 289 00:16:12.840 --> 00:16:16.279 and then it just completely reversed course. But yeah, overall 290 00:16:16.320 --> 00:16:20.200 over the last five years, I mean, we saw one 291 00:16:20.240 --> 00:16:25.000 point two billion dollars worth of teather on exchanges the 292 00:16:25.039 --> 00:16:27.720 first week of June of twenty twenty five years ago, 293 00:16:28.759 --> 00:16:31.159 and now it's thirty four point two billion. 294 00:16:32.000 --> 00:16:32.320 Wow. 295 00:16:33.080 --> 00:16:37.600 I mean that's just insane, an increase of twenty seven 296 00:16:37.679 --> 00:16:41.039 hundred and thirty seven percent more tether on exchanges. 297 00:16:41.080 --> 00:16:43.200 Now, even with this drop. 298 00:16:44.879 --> 00:16:48.720 I'm hoping to see that that number V shape recovery 299 00:16:49.240 --> 00:16:53.080 happened where it's at right now, because if it keeps 300 00:16:53.080 --> 00:16:55.120 going down, that's not a good sign. If I'm looking 301 00:16:55.200 --> 00:16:57.639 at this chart and I see you know how it 302 00:16:57.720 --> 00:17:00.879 was declining in December twenty two two, and we know 303 00:17:00.960 --> 00:17:04.359 that was the peak of the bear market with FTX 304 00:17:04.400 --> 00:17:05.079 and much more. 305 00:17:05.880 --> 00:17:09.039 Yeah, I mean, it's all relative. I don't think this 306 00:17:09.200 --> 00:17:12.000 is the most correlative metric in the world, but you 307 00:17:12.039 --> 00:17:14.400 can see that it's a bit lagging. So like if 308 00:17:15.200 --> 00:17:19.519 prices start to drop, people wait and then react to 309 00:17:19.559 --> 00:17:22.920 the price dropping and start taking money off there and 310 00:17:22.960 --> 00:17:25.839 then price is reverse and then people react to that 311 00:17:25.960 --> 00:17:27.680 and start bringing money back on exchanges. 312 00:17:27.759 --> 00:17:29.200 So it's kind of like. 313 00:17:29.200 --> 00:17:36.559 An emotional metric in a way, where people see what 314 00:17:36.640 --> 00:17:40.160 direction markets are going and then decide whether they want 315 00:17:40.240 --> 00:17:43.000 more money on exchanges to buy or to take money 316 00:17:43.039 --> 00:17:45.759 off because they don't intend on buying. So all it 317 00:17:45.799 --> 00:17:49.119 takes is, you know, another tease at an all time high, 318 00:17:49.240 --> 00:17:52.640 and you'll likely see you know, tether start to come 319 00:17:52.720 --> 00:17:54.880 right on back because people want to get in on 320 00:17:55.480 --> 00:17:58.200 the action and pray for one twenty and beyond. 321 00:17:59.359 --> 00:18:02.759 Oh sure, yeah, that definitely makes sense. See I love 322 00:18:02.839 --> 00:18:05.599 looking at all these different data sets and even when 323 00:18:05.680 --> 00:18:08.440 it challenges like your thesis, right, Like I have a 324 00:18:08.480 --> 00:18:12.039 certain thesis based on certain metrics and signals, not emotions, 325 00:18:12.039 --> 00:18:14.240 But then you look at something like this and you're like, 326 00:18:14.359 --> 00:18:17.640 h did I miss something right or this is something 327 00:18:17.640 --> 00:18:19.880 I really need to take into consideration and a way 328 00:18:19.960 --> 00:18:24.319 against the other signals. So very very insightful. Yeah, well, 329 00:18:24.400 --> 00:18:27.759 said Tony, how about we take a look at some 330 00:18:27.920 --> 00:18:31.880 all coins. We could maybe start with Etherorem that had 331 00:18:31.880 --> 00:18:35.440 a bit of a run a big, nice, big run up, 332 00:18:35.440 --> 00:18:37.880 but then you know it took some of it back, well, 333 00:18:38.160 --> 00:18:40.759 not much taking it back. It's consolidating, you know. Obviously 334 00:18:40.839 --> 00:18:42.079 the market is down right now. 335 00:18:42.680 --> 00:18:45.920 So there have been a few weird anomalies going on 336 00:18:46.000 --> 00:18:48.359 with your theorem as of late. For one, it just 337 00:18:48.440 --> 00:18:53.359 had its biggest circulation spike in about four months, and 338 00:18:53.400 --> 00:18:58.079 this was right as prices started to go down. I 339 00:18:58.119 --> 00:19:01.039 think a lot of people were picking up on this 340 00:19:01.240 --> 00:19:05.079 was related to bitcoin, but I think it affected all 341 00:19:05.119 --> 00:19:08.880 markets a little bit. But bitfinex apparently made some big moves. 342 00:19:09.119 --> 00:19:13.119 I can't confirm for sure. I know this biggest transaction 343 00:19:13.319 --> 00:19:16.240 that happened on June second, in this post we put 344 00:19:16.279 --> 00:19:20.319 out yesterday was related to bitfinex. We decided to play 345 00:19:20.359 --> 00:19:22.640 it safe and just call them all unknown while it's 346 00:19:22.680 --> 00:19:27.119 but the actual Bitcoin explorer refers to this as a 347 00:19:27.160 --> 00:19:34.200 bitfinx address moving just a ridiculous amount of bitcoin off. 348 00:19:34.079 --> 00:19:34.839 Of their exchange. 349 00:19:35.480 --> 00:19:37.480 And then I think there are rumors that these were 350 00:19:37.519 --> 00:19:42.599 also bitfin x. So three of the largest transactions over 351 00:19:42.640 --> 00:19:45.440 the the largest over the past month were all at 352 00:19:45.440 --> 00:19:48.119 the beginning of the month, and this correlated with some 353 00:19:48.160 --> 00:19:51.920 weird stuff with ethereum as well, where there was a 354 00:19:51.960 --> 00:19:58.240 massive circulation spike. We even see funding rate moving down 355 00:19:58.279 --> 00:20:01.759 a little bit. First time we're or at least temporarily, 356 00:20:01.799 --> 00:20:04.720 we saw more shorts than longs, so people are starting 357 00:20:04.720 --> 00:20:07.240 to show a little bit of doubt. There not much 358 00:20:07.279 --> 00:20:10.519 whale activity. We're also keeping an eye on mean dollar 359 00:20:10.519 --> 00:20:13.559 invested age to see if some dormant coin movement starts 360 00:20:13.599 --> 00:20:16.839 to come back on the network. There has been a 361 00:20:17.480 --> 00:20:20.599 drop over the past three weeks. We're hoping for more 362 00:20:20.680 --> 00:20:23.839 because a big drop in mean dollar invested age would 363 00:20:24.359 --> 00:20:27.559 indicate that the network's getting younger. Therefore, more tokens are 364 00:20:27.599 --> 00:20:31.759 coming back into circulation and can quickly cause utility to 365 00:20:31.839 --> 00:20:33.119 rise and drive up prices. 366 00:20:33.599 --> 00:20:35.920 It's at least flat now after this long stretch. 367 00:20:36.000 --> 00:20:37.440 You can see how it was just going up and 368 00:20:37.519 --> 00:20:40.519 up and up and up, and then finally on this 369 00:20:40.599 --> 00:20:45.160 huge rally in early May, dormant coins began to move 370 00:20:45.279 --> 00:20:47.759 tried to sparkable rally, but I think it was a 371 00:20:47.759 --> 00:20:50.160 bit stifled to buy bitcoins inconsistency. 372 00:20:50.440 --> 00:20:53.480 That's interesting. I know recently there were some very big 373 00:20:53.519 --> 00:20:57.599 news with ether and being adopted as a treasury reserve asset, 374 00:20:58.319 --> 00:21:00.240 where one company I believe it's going to buy four 375 00:21:00.319 --> 00:21:04.480 hundred and something million dollars they potentially can stake some. 376 00:21:04.640 --> 00:21:06.759 Joe Lubin got added to the board and all that. 377 00:21:07.640 --> 00:21:10.839 Obviously we had the price spike as well, so well, 378 00:21:10.880 --> 00:21:11.640 guess we'll see. 379 00:21:12.839 --> 00:21:14.920 Yeah. I saw some hype about that too. 380 00:21:15.000 --> 00:21:18.119 We saw the biggest spike in discussion about it on 381 00:21:18.160 --> 00:21:23.039 May twenty seventh. Another big spike just a couple of 382 00:21:23.119 --> 00:21:27.119 days ago Wednesday. So people are paying attention to that news, 383 00:21:27.240 --> 00:21:31.480 and I think it would have an undoubted positive result 384 00:21:31.559 --> 00:21:35.279 if it goes through and becomes, you know, a. 385 00:21:35.240 --> 00:21:42.359 Treasury for sure. Let's look at XRP. What's happening on 386 00:21:42.359 --> 00:21:42.759 that front. 387 00:21:42.920 --> 00:21:45.920 So XRP has been kind of just treading water a 388 00:21:45.920 --> 00:21:51.440 little like Ethereum lately, where it retraced a bit. Well, 389 00:21:51.480 --> 00:21:53.000 actually it's had a longer retrace. 390 00:21:53.039 --> 00:21:53.559 I should say. 391 00:21:53.599 --> 00:21:58.119 It's down about fifteen percent since it's high about three 392 00:21:58.160 --> 00:22:02.279 weeks ago May thirteenth. So I think a lot of 393 00:22:02.319 --> 00:22:05.839 people are itching for the third largest non stable coin 394 00:22:05.920 --> 00:22:08.920 to make another move. It has been getting some circulation 395 00:22:09.039 --> 00:22:12.680 spikes but not much else. The active addresses that you 396 00:22:12.720 --> 00:22:15.799 can see here in Orange, we're spiking a lot in March, 397 00:22:15.880 --> 00:22:20.279 but they've calmed down heavily and the coins honestly really 398 00:22:20.319 --> 00:22:25.880 struggled since Trump's inauguration. Roughly it's down about it's lost 399 00:22:25.920 --> 00:22:27.960 about a third of its market cap thirty three point 400 00:22:28.000 --> 00:22:31.960 six percent. I still, you know, like it long term, 401 00:22:32.119 --> 00:22:34.880