Speaker 1: And we are kind of seeing them move up right
Speaker 1: now in tandem with the key stakeholders.
Speaker 2: So it's actually the massive wallet's.
Speaker 1: The ten k or more that are dumping to everybody
Speaker 1: else right now, so everyone else is trying to accumulate more.
Speaker 1: I'm still a little worried about this tiny little drop,
Speaker 1: but the bigger worry is that retailers are getting a
Speaker 1: little greedy here believing that this is the dip to buy.
Speaker 3: Hey, everybody, welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcast. Joining me
Speaker 3: is Brian from Sentiment, and as you all know, we're
Speaker 3: going to do a deep dive into the metrics around bitcoin,
Speaker 3: xrpe theorem, Solana and much more to see what is
Speaker 3: happening in this bull market and what may happen next. Brian,
Speaker 3: good to see you. Happy Friday.
Speaker 2: Happy Friday to you, Tony.
Speaker 1: It's the Trump and Elon show this week and all
Speaker 1: eyes are on them.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's funny that that popped up, and of course
Speaker 3: it's going to affect markets. The world's witches man, the
Speaker 3: world's most powerful man battling. The topic is of course
Speaker 3: on the debt bill, or I shouldn't say the debt bill,
Speaker 3: even though that's what it is the spending bill, you know,
Speaker 3: and that's going to have an effect on markets. But
Speaker 3: you know, it's crazy. I don't know if this is
Speaker 3: all a show or is legit.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think everyone has their own opinions. A lot
Speaker 1: of people are just spamming popcorn emojis because the drama
Speaker 1: is too good to be true for them, regardless of
Speaker 1: how people feel about Trump and or Elon Musk. You know,
Speaker 1: when you see two of the most powerful people in
Speaker 1: the world suddenly engaging in a very public he said,
Speaker 1: she said, it causes havoc and it creates chaos that
Speaker 1: makes markets even more unpredictable, on top of all of
Speaker 1: the tariff stuff that still.
Speaker 2: Exists and has existed the last two months.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is such a weird period, man. I am
Speaker 3: trying to, like, in principle, I understand them. You know,
Speaker 3: I viewed things from a macro perspective, so I'm not
Speaker 3: like leaving sleep. I'm not nervous or anything like that.
Speaker 3: But it's also like, God, this is so annoying, like
Speaker 3: all these things that are high happening. The tariff uncertainty
Speaker 3: pushed the natural correction out of Q four way down
Speaker 3: than we expected. We v shaped recovered out of it,
Speaker 3: then you have this happen and then big one's pulling back.
Speaker 3: So it's yeah, it's crazy, man.
Speaker 1: I would I would at least argue that this is
Speaker 1: not nearly on the same level as like, you know,
Speaker 1: the tariff announcement or the even like the drama with
Speaker 1: Jerome Powell. Right, even though Elon Musk is much more
Speaker 1: well known and more powerful in a different way than
Speaker 1: Jerome Powell. Jerome Powell directly has to do with the
Speaker 1: interest rates of the most prominent country in the world
Speaker 1: to most people, and that's still a much bigger deal
Speaker 1: than you know. However, Petty, you think this trauma is
Speaker 1: between Elon and Trump, it's more of a you know,
Speaker 1: the the main sidekick that everyone knew was in Trump's
Speaker 1: corner is no longer in his corner, and what's that
Speaker 1: going to do? But no one quite knows exactly. It's
Speaker 1: just kind of like a bit of a shakeup. I
Speaker 1: think that's how most people are interpreting it right now.
Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure. And look, I've been looking at the
Speaker 3: bitcoin chart and on the daily like, just as an
Speaker 3: example of just one metric, but the RSI has been
Speaker 3: in a down trend so expected from sort of pull
Speaker 3: back on the price, but you know, with something like
Speaker 3: this happening, be a catalyst to drive even further down
Speaker 3: than we anticipated. Right, So maybe on that note, we
Speaker 3: could start looking at some bitcoin metrics and what you're
Speaker 3: seeing as far as sentiment. Are people turning bearers? Are
Speaker 3: they getting fearful? I see some calls out there at
Speaker 3: the top is in, the top is in, And it's
Speaker 3: just interesting how people are reacting to all of this.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I mean, we've talked about the how our feeds look
Speaker 1: versus the reality when we scrape all of the data altogether,
Speaker 1: and it's actually not that bad in either direction. People
Speaker 1: are pretty neutral right now. Granted this is kind of
Speaker 1: just the one day.
Speaker 2: Look.
Speaker 1: If I reduce it to like four hours, we'll see
Speaker 1: a lot more noise. And there is a pretty big
Speaker 1: spike right here. However, it doesn't look excuse me, it
Speaker 1: doesn't look like there's anything super euphoria related. The last
Speaker 1: time we really saw that was you know, arguably around
Speaker 1: May thirteenth, or after the real rebound around April twenty fourth,
Speaker 1: twenty fifth. So I don't see people being too swayed.
Speaker 2: By this drama either. Way.
Speaker 1: I think, if anything, there was a bit of fear
Speaker 1: after the price dropped and people were attributing it to
Speaker 1: the Elon and Trump breakup alleged, But I don't necessarily
Speaker 1: think that it's going to cause nearly as much chaos
Speaker 1: as as some people have expressed on social media.
Speaker 3: What are the whales doing? Because I saw on one
Speaker 3: of the awn chain metric here from Santaman a big
Speaker 3: spike in whale accumulation while it's with ten or more bitcoin,
Speaker 3: which is fascinating.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: So this is specifically the ten to ten thousand BTC line,
Speaker 1: which is more or less the key stakeholder tier in
Speaker 1: modern days with bitcoin app anywhere between like fifty two
Speaker 1: whatever one twelve k the all time high. This is
Speaker 1: the tier that tends to move markets most prominently. And
Speaker 1: they went on a hell of a run between May
Speaker 1: twenty sixth up until June third, where they accumulated just
Speaker 1: about one hundred thousand btc during that week, and then
Speaker 1: over the last couple of days they dropped about a
Speaker 1: quarter of that twenty six point six k.
Speaker 2: So still a good sign.
Speaker 1: I mean, you talk about the last six months and
Speaker 1: just draw a line like this, they're moving in the
Speaker 1: right direction. Meanwhile, what we are hoping to see is
Speaker 1: a little more dumping from the small retail traders, because
Speaker 1: just as much as this is a good correlative indicator,
Speaker 1: the to one BTC wallets are a good counter indicator,
Speaker 1: and we are kind of seeing them move up right
Speaker 1: now in tandem with the key stakeholders. So it's actually
Speaker 1: the massive wallets, the ten k or more that are
Speaker 1: dumping to everybody else right now, so everyone else is
Speaker 1: trying to accumulate more. I'm still a little worried about
Speaker 1: this tiny little drop, but the bigger worry is that
Speaker 1: retailers are getting a little greedy here believing.
Speaker 2: That this is the dip to buy.
Speaker 1: And historically, if the retailers believe this is the dip
Speaker 1: to buy, it's usually the next one when they're a
Speaker 1: little more jaded and afraid to buy the dip that
Speaker 1: is the actual dip to buy.
Speaker 3: Interesting, so I feel like we have to give this
Speaker 3: like another week to see which direction both go in. Right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I hate to give it kind of a wait
Speaker 1: and see, because you know, we all want definitive data.
Speaker 1: But this truly is such a weird time where you
Speaker 1: know that ten to twenty percent chance that all of
Speaker 1: this Elon and Trump stuff is orchestrated. You know, everyone
Speaker 1: has their own opinions that could just cause so much
Speaker 1: confusion and overreactions, and you know, for all we know,
Speaker 1: Trump is waiting to see how people react and then
Speaker 1: makes a big announcement on Monday. You know, we've seen
Speaker 1: that plenty of times with the tariffs the last few months.
Speaker 1: So it's just it's so difficult to tell based on
Speaker 1: on chain metrics, but we can at least say that
Speaker 1: social wise, like all eyes are on this Elon and
Speaker 1: Trump drama. We have this new trending story STAB that's
Speaker 1: in beta and it's all about the Epstein file stuff
Speaker 1: because Elon came out and told everyone that Trump was
Speaker 1: on the list after their their fallout happened, and then
Speaker 1: the beef between Musk and Trump. You're in third so
Speaker 1: you can see just how much, you know, people are
Speaker 1: talking about it, even Doge because Elon mentioned that a
Speaker 1: third party could be created in the US named after Doge.
Speaker 1: Whatever your opinion is on that, there's there's just a
Speaker 1: lot of talk that all seems to be circulated around that,
Speaker 1: and a little bit with the Circle IPO because it
Speaker 1: came out of the gates super hot with a one
Speaker 1: hund and sixty percent rise, which is super rare for
Speaker 1: the stock market.
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, for sure. That was a you know, the
Speaker 3: days started off with the good news of that ray
Speaker 3: and everybody's oh man, this is awesome. Yeah, another crypto
Speaker 3: company goes public, and then you had the Elon Trump
Speaker 3: drama just overshadow everything.
Speaker 2: Of course. Yeah.
Speaker 3: One of the metrics we looked at sign was the MVRV.
Speaker 3: If I'm not mistaken around bitcoin, I'm curious what that
Speaker 3: looks like.
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's look at how average traders are doing right now,
Speaker 1: because in a zero sum game, as we've talked about
Speaker 1: in previous calls, Tony, you want to see the mvrvs
Speaker 1: mostly in negative range where traders are not profiting. Therefore
Speaker 1: you'd be buying in at less risk. But right now
Speaker 1: the thirty day is sitting ride at about zero, so
Speaker 1: it's about as neutral as you can get. Meanwhile, the
Speaker 1: long term it has fallen a bit. It's at plus
Speaker 1: sixteen point nine percent now after being as high as
Speaker 1: plus twenty seven back on May twenty first, So the
Speaker 1: last couple of weeks has brought it back down to
Speaker 1: earth a little bit. I'd still love to see both
Speaker 1: of these lines below zero as a great sign that
Speaker 1: we are bottoming and it's a perfect time to buy,
Speaker 1: just like we saw when it was max fheartime on
Speaker 1: April ninth or so eighth, whatever your time zone was.
Speaker 1: So overall it's it's neutral to just slightly concerning, depending
Speaker 1: on the timeframe you want to invest.
Speaker 3: That makes sense. Yeah, it seems like we got to
Speaker 3: give some more time for all of these things. Maybe
Speaker 3: it's a week or two weeks to look back and
Speaker 3: see where things find there this definitive position, I guess.
Speaker 3: And then one of the other things we looked at
Speaker 3: was ETF inflows and things along those lines. I think
Speaker 3: I saw reports that there has been outflows.
Speaker 2: Correct.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so three or four out of the last six
Speaker 1: stock market days, not including the day we're recording Friday,
Speaker 1: we're seeing more money moving out than moving in. And
Speaker 1: this is actually some pretty sizable outflow data here. The
Speaker 1: dates on my chart are actually one day delayed, so
Speaker 1: when I'm highlighting this May twenty eighth, candle, it's actually
Speaker 1: made twenty ninth data, et cetera.
Speaker 2: But either way, you look.
Speaker 1: At May twenty ninth, three hundred and forty point seven
Speaker 1: million dollars moving out in net. The next day, May thirtieth,
Speaker 1: just about six hundred million dollars moving out, the next
Speaker 1: day to sixty seven point five million moving out. That's
Speaker 1: June second, and then yesterday, June fifth, two hundred sixty seven,
Speaker 1: two hundred and sixty one point seven million dollars moving out.
Speaker 1: The one inflow day was June first, and that was
Speaker 1: about three sixty eight million, and then a very small
Speaker 1: one the next day, June second, which was I'm sorry,
Speaker 1: June fourth, which was eighty seven million dollars. Now a
Speaker 1: lot more outflow than inflow. That's definitely a net of
Speaker 1: over a billion dollars over the last week or so.
Speaker 3: Interesting. So if we're looking at some of the historical patterns,
Speaker 3: it seems like we may have room to go down
Speaker 3: a bit more for Bitcoin before we find some sort
Speaker 3: of bottom and then keep going higher.
Speaker 1: Yeah, as you know, we don't take to finive stances
Speaker 1: or give investment advice, but based on the metrics we're
Speaker 1: seeing now, it's kind of a wait and see combined
Speaker 1: with a little more concern based on where we're at.
Speaker 1: But that said, you know, we're already retraced, give or
Speaker 1: take about ten percent from our all time high, maybe
Speaker 1: eleven percent. And when that happens, you're in a position
Speaker 1: where you could you could easily buy at a justifiable,
Speaker 1: justifiable position if you're on the short term trading strategy
Speaker 1: and you want to just try to see if you
Speaker 1: can get it back up to one oh five or
Speaker 1: one of six or so and then take some profit.
Speaker 1: You know, there's there's argument that we could see that
Speaker 1: over the next week, but from a mid and long
Speaker 1: term perspective, until things change a little bit, I still
Speaker 1: don't like that the three sixty five day MVRV is
Speaker 1: as high as it is, and I definitely don't like
Speaker 1: that there's a lot of money moving out of utfs.
Speaker 1: That's a pretty big surprise seeing especially this level coming out.
Speaker 3: Interesting. Yeah, I have a I could be absolutely wrong,
Speaker 3: but I have a feeling based on certain metrics like this,
Speaker 3: there's more downside and my thesis overall is that bull
Speaker 3: market's not over. But once again, I don't have a
Speaker 3: crystal ball, but you know, it seems like there's definitely
Speaker 3: a cool down period here and I don't know what
Speaker 3: the catalysts. You know, sometimes there's a saying that show
Speaker 3: me the charts and I'll tell you the news. Right,
Speaker 3: prices going down. You got negative news, but then it
Speaker 3: bottoms out, starts moving up. Then the price turns positive.
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, the news turns positive. It's it's
Speaker 3: interesting how all that works.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, markets are constantly designed to maximally punish
Speaker 1: the emotional traders out there. So right now, as we saw,
Speaker 1: there's kind of a mixed reaction. Traders are kind of
Speaker 1: equally bullish versus bearish. Once some catalyst comes out, you know,
Speaker 1: Elon makes some even bigger bombshell about the financial standing
Speaker 1: of the country rather than just personal attacks. Trump comes
Speaker 1: out and proclaims another tariff demand unless his needs are
Speaker 1: met on you.
Speaker 2: Who knows.
Speaker 1: Those are the kinds of things that are going to
Speaker 1: swing emotions all over again, and we get a you know,
Speaker 1: another wave.
Speaker 2: Of super greed or super fear.
Speaker 1: Especially if that news comes out and then you see
Speaker 1: the price initially react and then people start to associate
Speaker 1: it with like.
Speaker 2: Okay, this is positive news.
Speaker 1: And if they all think it's positive, that's when it
Speaker 1: becomes a negative story. I know it sounds weird, but
Speaker 1: that generally is how it works.
Speaker 3: Mm hmm, yeah, crazy stuff, man. What do you see
Speaker 3: on the tether supply side of things? And I know
Speaker 3: that's something we've monitored, the supply and exchanges.
Speaker 1: Yeah, So I'll do the overall supplying exchanges here, and
Speaker 1: I'll also add the ratio of its overall supply on exchanges,
Speaker 1: and we'll just look at the last year. And it's
Speaker 1: pretty pretty jarring. Actually, the amount of supply and exchanges
Speaker 1: has fallen since its peak just about four months ago
Speaker 1: February fifth. We've seen about ten point two to one
Speaker 1: billion dollars worth of teather moving off of exchanges and
Speaker 1: about thirteen point nine to five percent of all tether
Speaker 1: moving off exchanges. So this is this is indicative that
Speaker 1: there's just less buying power on exchanges at the moment,
Speaker 1: and it it the trend really has not stopped.
Speaker 3: And would you be able to zoom out on that chart,
Speaker 3: like let's say for the past year.
Speaker 1: This is this actually is the last year I can
Speaker 1: go way back to, like twenty twenty.
Speaker 3: Interesting, yeah, because I'm curious, like what's the pattern here?
Speaker 1: So it's most moved up, especially in late twenty twenty four,
Speaker 1: Like this was right before Trump got elected, and then
Speaker 1: it just surged all the way up until as inauguration,
Speaker 1: even a couple of weeks after as where it topped
Speaker 1: and then it just completely reversed course. But yeah, overall
Speaker 1: over the last five years, I mean, we saw one
Speaker 1: point two billion dollars worth of teather on exchanges the
Speaker 1: first week of June of twenty twenty five years ago,
Speaker 1: and now it's thirty four point two billion.
Speaker 2: Wow.
Speaker 1: I mean that's just insane, an increase of twenty seven
Speaker 1: hundred and thirty seven percent more tether on exchanges.
Speaker 2: Now, even with this drop.
Speaker 3: I'm hoping to see that that number V shape recovery
Speaker 3: happened where it's at right now, because if it keeps
Speaker 3: going down, that's not a good sign. If I'm looking
Speaker 3: at this chart and I see you know how it
Speaker 3: was declining in December twenty two two, and we know
Speaker 3: that was the peak of the bear market with FTX
Speaker 3: and much more.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, it's all relative. I don't think this
Speaker 1: is the most correlative metric in the world, but you
Speaker 1: can see that it's a bit lagging. So like if
Speaker 1: prices start to drop, people wait and then react to
Speaker 1: the price dropping and start taking money off there and
Speaker 1: then price is reverse and then people react to that
Speaker 1: and start bringing money back on exchanges.
Speaker 2: So it's kind of like.
Speaker 1: An emotional metric in a way, where people see what
Speaker 1: direction markets are going and then decide whether they want
Speaker 1: more money on exchanges to buy or to take money
Speaker 1: off because they don't intend on buying. So all it
Speaker 1: takes is, you know, another tease at an all time high,
Speaker 1: and you'll likely see you know, tether start to come
Speaker 1: right on back because people want to get in on
Speaker 1: the action and pray for one twenty and beyond.
Speaker 3: Oh sure, yeah, that definitely makes sense. See I love
Speaker 3: looking at all these different data sets and even when
Speaker 3: it challenges like your thesis, right, Like I have a
Speaker 3: certain thesis based on certain metrics and signals, not emotions,
Speaker 3: But then you look at something like this and you're like,
Speaker 3: h did I miss something right or this is something
Speaker 3: I really need to take into consideration and a way
Speaker 3: against the other signals. So very very insightful. Yeah, well,
Speaker 3: said Tony, how about we take a look at some
Speaker 3: all coins. We could maybe start with Etherorem that had
Speaker 3: a bit of a run a big, nice, big run up,
Speaker 3: but then you know it took some of it back, well,
Speaker 3: not much taking it back. It's consolidating, you know. Obviously
Speaker 3: the market is down right now.
Speaker 1: So there have been a few weird anomalies going on
Speaker 1: with your theorem as of late. For one, it just
Speaker 1: had its biggest circulation spike in about four months, and
Speaker 1: this was right as prices started to go down. I
Speaker 1: think a lot of people were picking up on this
Speaker 1: was related to bitcoin, but I think it affected all
Speaker 1: markets a little bit. But bitfinex apparently made some big moves.
Speaker 1: I can't confirm for sure. I know this biggest transaction
Speaker 1: that happened on June second, in this post we put
Speaker 1: out yesterday was related to bitfinex. We decided to play
Speaker 1: it safe and just call them all unknown while it's
Speaker 1: but the actual Bitcoin explorer refers to this as a
Speaker 1: bitfinx address moving just a ridiculous amount of bitcoin off.
Speaker 2: Of their exchange.
Speaker 1: And then I think there are rumors that these were
Speaker 1: also bitfin x. So three of the largest transactions over
Speaker 1: the the largest over the past month were all at
Speaker 1: the beginning of the month, and this correlated with some
Speaker 1: weird stuff with ethereum as well, where there was a
Speaker 1: massive circulation spike. We even see funding rate moving down
Speaker 1: a little bit. First time we're or at least temporarily,
Speaker 1: we saw more shorts than longs, so people are starting
Speaker 1: to show a little bit of doubt. There not much
Speaker 1: whale activity. We're also keeping an eye on mean dollar
Speaker 1: invested age to see if some dormant coin movement starts
Speaker 1: to come back on the network. There has been a
Speaker 1: drop over the past three weeks. We're hoping for more
Speaker 1: because a big drop in mean dollar invested age would
Speaker 1: indicate that the network's getting younger. Therefore, more tokens are
Speaker 1: coming back into circulation and can quickly cause utility to
Speaker 1: rise and drive up prices.
Speaker 2: It's at least flat now after this long stretch.
Speaker 1: You can see how it was just going up and
Speaker 1: up and up and up, and then finally on this
Speaker 1: huge rally in early May, dormant coins began to move
Speaker 1: tried to sparkable rally, but I think it was a
Speaker 1: bit stifled to buy bitcoins inconsistency.
Speaker 3: That's interesting. I know recently there were some very big
Speaker 3: news with ether and being adopted as a treasury reserve asset,
Speaker 3: where one company I believe it's going to buy four
Speaker 3: hundred and something million dollars they potentially can stake some.
Speaker 3: Joe Lubin got added to the board and all that.
Speaker 3: Obviously we had the price spike as well, so well,
Speaker 3: guess we'll see.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I saw some hype about that too.
Speaker 1: We saw the biggest spike in discussion about it on
Speaker 1: May twenty seventh. Another big spike just a couple of
Speaker 1: days ago Wednesday. So people are paying attention to that news,
Speaker 1: and I think it would have an undoubted positive result
Speaker 1: if it goes through and becomes, you know, a.
Speaker 3: Treasury for sure. Let's look at XRP. What's happening on
Speaker 3: that front.
Speaker 1: So XRP has been kind of just treading water a
Speaker 1: little like Ethereum lately, where it retraced a bit. Well,
Speaker 1: actually it's had a longer retrace.
Speaker 2: I should say.
Speaker 1: It's down about fifteen percent since it's high about three
Speaker 1: weeks ago May thirteenth. So I think a lot of
Speaker 1: people are itching for the third largest non stable coin
Speaker 1: to make another move. It has been getting some circulation
Speaker 1: spikes but not much else. The active addresses that you
Speaker 1: can see here in Orange, we're spiking a lot in March,
Speaker 1: but they've calmed down heavily and the coins honestly really
Speaker 1: struggled since Trump's inauguration. Roughly it's down about it's lost
Speaker 1: about a third of its market cap thirty three point
Speaker 1: six percent. I still, you know, like it long term,
Speaker 1: as I know many others who watch your shows do.
Speaker 1: And it is a good sign that the MVRV here
Speaker 1: is below zero percent. The thirty day average traders are
Speaker 1: actually down four point eight percent. So if you're buying
Speaker 1: in now, you're doing so while the average trader is
Speaker 1: actually in pain over that short term time span. So
Speaker 1: you can keep that in mind if you want to
Speaker 1: take the risk of, you know, catching a fallen falling knife,
Speaker 1: as they say.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, it's it's been really weird for all coins.
Speaker 3: I think as usual, bitcoin leads the market and all
Speaker 3: coins swallow, But specifically with XRP, it was such a
Speaker 3: strong narrative against her getting kicked out, ripplewing the lawsuit,
Speaker 3: Trump being pro crypto, that it almost took it to
Speaker 3: this not necessarily a ultimate top, but it overshot maybe
Speaker 3: what it would have potentially normally did or I would
Speaker 3: have done. And then the cool now is happening now
Speaker 3: and it's going to be a big bit extended because
Speaker 3: it was such a big leader in Q.
Speaker 1: Four, right, it's since it was so targeted by the SEC.
Speaker 1: It was the biggest beneficiary when Crypto essentially won over
Speaker 1: the SEC and Gensler was booted from his position because
Speaker 1: it was the most associated with the asset that is,
Speaker 1: you know, trying to be torn down. So it had
Speaker 1: its time where it just really saw a lot of
Speaker 1: people rushing in to be a part of it, because
Speaker 1: the theory then was it had been suppressed due to
Speaker 1: Gensler and all of the lawsuit drama that was happening.
Speaker 1: So once that curtain was lifted, people jumped in, pushed
Speaker 1: up the prices a lot, and the pendulum kind of
Speaker 1: sway the other way where it I think a lot
Speaker 1: of people refer to it now as by the rumor
Speaker 1: sell the news effect when the lawsuit was essentially dropped.
Speaker 1: But now you know, we've seen both directions of the pendulum.
Speaker 1: Prices of retraced by a third, and there's an argument
Speaker 1: that is actually pretty true to it. It's where it
Speaker 1: should be relative to the rest of Crypto. Now, it's
Speaker 1: still if you go back what three years, it's still
Speaker 1: done pretty well.
Speaker 2: Because of that huge.
Speaker 1: Surge from November through January when it just about six
Speaker 1: x I believe, and you know, now the question is
Speaker 1: can it maintain that two dollars level at least and
Speaker 1: start to crawl back up to three and beyond.
Speaker 2: I think it can.
Speaker 1: It's got a huge community of believers, people that I've
Speaker 1: talked to, that I've done videos with on sentiment that
Speaker 1: that are very very strongly in xrp's corner. So many
Speaker 1: smart people seem to see XRP as a great long
Speaker 1: term investment in store value.
Speaker 2: So take that for what you will. Yeah, for sure.
Speaker 3: And even though it had this pullback, the charts honestly
Speaker 3: don't look horrible, and I'm talking like trading View and
Speaker 3: things like that, compared to other all coins that have
Speaker 3: retraced significantly. So while it has given back some of
Speaker 3: those gains, its chart overall still looks very bullish and
Speaker 3: it almost seems to have taken how should I put
Speaker 3: it in Like late twenty twenty three to twenty twenty four,
Speaker 3: Solana was that all coin that was getting so much
Speaker 3: liquidity it broke its all time high. You know, it
Speaker 3: was moving along with Bitcoin that kind of flipped to XRP. Now,
Speaker 3: don't get me wrong. Doesn't mean XRP will continue in
Speaker 3: that's driver's sept. It could move to Suite or Ethereum.
Speaker 3: I don't know, but overall it's chart doesn't look horrible.
Speaker 2: I would agree with you.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, these are all very large top cap
Speaker 1: assets you're referring to, so they all kind of take
Speaker 1: their moment in the sun. Ethereum kind of took like
Speaker 1: a three year time out to the point where people
Speaker 1: were laughing at the fact that it was still the
Speaker 1: number two market cap asset, and then it finally was
Speaker 1: brought to life about a month ago and had its
Speaker 1: own time in the sun, not to the extent that
Speaker 1: XRP did at the end of twenty twenty four, but
Speaker 1: it at least started to gain on Bitcoin for the
Speaker 1: first time in a long time. So, yeah, they all
Speaker 1: kind of rotate in and out based on a little
Speaker 1: bit of math and a little bit of news.
Speaker 3: Oh for sure. But let's take a look at Solana.
Speaker 3: I don't know what's happening on that front. I haven't
Speaker 3: heard much in the news about Solana, but curious how
Speaker 3: it's performing.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so Solana's had a lot of social activity and
Speaker 1: it's I think we talked about it a few months ago,
Speaker 1: but there does seem to be a lot of bot
Speaker 1: activity for whatever reason, and maybe that's due to the
Speaker 1: fact that it has such a big meme ecosystem these days.
Speaker 1: Sure there are a lot of people trying to persuade
Speaker 1: other traders to buy the latest you know, Solona, meme coin, Bonk,
Speaker 1: trump coin, whatever.
Speaker 2: But yeah, we saw huge social.
Speaker 1: Dominance spikes in March and April, they kind of went
Speaker 1: away and now it's rising again. I'll take off the
Speaker 1: volume so we can just see social dominance. I'll make
Speaker 1: it a different color. Yeah, so it's it's actually getting
Speaker 1: like ten percent of all discussions right now, which is
Speaker 1: a ton that's usually about what Ethereum gets. And to me,
Speaker 1: they're seem to be a spotlight on it right now.
Speaker 1: If I go to our social trends page and we
Speaker 1: go to trending words all right, sorry, trending coins that is,
Speaker 1: you'll see just how much of a lead Solana has
Speaker 1: over everything else. So, yeah, look at just how big
Speaker 1: the sentiment the overall discussion is for Solana compared to
Speaker 1: other coins right now, and it's mostly very positive, which
Speaker 1: isn't the ideal sign you want to see a little
Speaker 1: bit of negativity. But the point is it's just getting
Speaker 1: a ton of discussion to the point where it's very
Speaker 1: likely at least partly related to bot activity, but it
Speaker 1: does seem to be related to Solana's token utility, staking returns,
Speaker 1: swapping options, transaction fees, and tools. There's a lot of
Speaker 1: discussion on Telegram in particular with the trend centers around
Speaker 1: Solana's price, market performance, technical analysis, ecosystem growth, DeFi, and
Speaker 1: then ft activities in future network upgrades with optimistic price
Speaker 1: forecast for twenty twenty five. So it's just there seems
Speaker 1: to be a lot of discussion and interest. Take that
Speaker 1: for what you will. I'd like to see the bullish
Speaker 1: sentiment that's currently showing from the crowd drop down a
Speaker 1: little bit because people are just a little too optimistic
Speaker 1: about it to justify that whales are going to buy
Speaker 1: and push up prices.
Speaker 2: But we will see how it goes.
Speaker 3: That's interesting. Even in this market, it still has that
Speaker 3: outlook which is interesting.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a weird, weird time for Solana in particular.
Speaker 1: There's just has been some strange behavior socially surrounding that asset.
Speaker 1: In twenty twenty five.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and to your point, you know, maybe a lot
Speaker 3: of it has to do with the meme coins and
Speaker 3: people launching all kinds of crab and pumped out fun
Speaker 3: and all that stuff, and that maybe playing out in
Speaker 3: the box, the social sentiment and all that.
Speaker 2: It's interesting.
Speaker 1: I'm curious Tony, by the way, before we wrap up,
Speaker 1: what do you think about the micro strategy stuff and
Speaker 1: this thing with Stride.
Speaker 2: Are you following any of it?
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I'm all for companies having a bitcoin corporate treasury,
Speaker 3: as long as they do it the right way. And
Speaker 3: what I mean by that is if they take some
Speaker 3: of their cash on their balance sheet and buy some bitcoin,
Speaker 3: I'm totally fine with that, even if they raise a
Speaker 3: little bit of debt kind of the micro strategy micro
Speaker 3: strategy playbook, that's okay. But I'm worried. I'm putting up
Speaker 3: the red flags that I believe Michael Saylor is taking
Speaker 3: this to the extreme amount of leverage. And now you
Speaker 3: have this s SCRD, so he's creating another way to
Speaker 3: just pile on the leverage. Here different tranches of leverage,
Speaker 3: and I feel like there's gonna be some sort of
Speaker 3: blow up. I don't want there to be a blow up,
Speaker 3: but I'm concerned the amount of leverage. We've seen this
Speaker 3: in tradfi, it usually doesn't end well.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's certainly maybe the most polarizing guy in crypto,
Speaker 1: if you don't count Trump and Musk because of their
Speaker 1: association with crypto. But his strategy is certainly bold. You know,
Speaker 1: he dropped the word micro fittingly, and I think it's
Speaker 1: interesting and extremely what's the word I'm looking for, aggressive
Speaker 1: and ambitious. That's the word that I think is showing
Speaker 1: just how confident he is in Bitcoin's future. The question
Speaker 1: a lot of people have is is he over leveraging
Speaker 1: so much that there could be a drop that causes
Speaker 1: too much of a bump in the road before Bitcoin
Speaker 1: eventually gets to those million dollar price levels.
Speaker 2: That they get to one day.
Speaker 1: Yeah, because you know anyone who's been liquidated before on
Speaker 1: ten x or more kind of leverage. You know, maybe
Speaker 1: they they did their ten x when bitcoin was at
Speaker 1: twenty k and they were right, because bitcoin's above one
Speaker 1: hundred k at the time this recording. But if you
Speaker 1: try to get too aggressive on your way up with
Speaker 1: your investment, you can lose it all. And that's with
Speaker 1: someone like sailor who owns billions and billions of worth
Speaker 1: of bitcoin that can that can create some chaos for
Speaker 1: the entire crypto market if for some reason he gets
Speaker 1: liquidated at prices none of us will will ever know
Speaker 1: until it happens.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I'm hoping it works out for him, man,
Speaker 3: you know, because I think it collapsed with you know,
Speaker 3: anything micro strategy. It's going to be bad for the
Speaker 3: entire market. So I don't want that to happen. It's
Speaker 3: just I'm looking at it and I'm like, when does
Speaker 3: it stop. I understand, you know, you're bullish on bitcoin
Speaker 3: and obviously bearish on FIAT, but at a certain point
Speaker 3: this thing is all cyclical. There's going to be a
Speaker 3: bear market. And if you prop up this thing so
Speaker 3: much with these different stock products and you know, to
Speaker 3: buy bigcin and raise all that debt, I just feel
Speaker 3: like it just takes something that could make it all collapse.
Speaker 2: I agree.
Speaker 1: And Arkham revealed their wallets last week as well, which
Speaker 1: was interesting.
Speaker 2: I don't know if that was the best thing for crypto.
Speaker 1: They certainly were diligent about not revealing their wallets, but
Speaker 1: something leaked that caused Arkham to get a hold of them,
Speaker 1: so now it's public information if they're crypto ever moves.
Speaker 1: I did a little bit of digging, not enough to
Speaker 1: do a research report on it, but I did find
Speaker 1: that most of their big wallets just had massive amounts,
Speaker 1: like thousands of bitcoin moving into each one of them
Speaker 1: three four or five years ago and they haven't moved
Speaker 1: ever since. So everything that Sailor says he's doing seems
Speaker 1: to be true on the surface. But you know, there
Speaker 1: are so many different wallets when you're talking about billions
Speaker 1: of dollars, most people don't hold them all in one,
Speaker 1: and my strategy certainly has broken them up.
Speaker 2: So I don't I don't know.
Speaker 1: I just it's such a unique and interesting saga going
Speaker 1: on there with Sailor and strategy, and there are people
Speaker 1: who know more than I do about it. But I'm
Speaker 1: always just curious what other you know, crypto experts like
Speaker 1: yourself are are thinking about it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and by the way, I don't know if you
Speaker 3: saw this, but I had tweeted about it where he
Speaker 3: came out and said he doesn't he doesn't believe in
Speaker 3: proof of reserves. I'm a I am in total disagreement.
Speaker 3: I believe this technology and what the ethos a bigcoin
Speaker 3: and so forth. I think there should be some sort
Speaker 3: of proof of reserves. Okay, if you don't want to
Speaker 3: release everything to the public as far as your wall address,
Speaker 3: maybe bring in a third party auditor. And Big four
Speaker 3: Forma says, hey, they have the bigcoin. They say they do,
Speaker 3: it's not paper bitcoin. Then okay, I agree with you there,
Speaker 3: but I don't like his stance on I don't believe
Speaker 3: in proof of reserves and so forth. And then you had,
Speaker 3: like Jack Maler's do to complete opposite, and I shout
Speaker 3: it out. Jack Maller's like, uh, I forget his company
Speaker 3: is called twenty one. I believe that they formed to
Speaker 3: buy bitcoin, and he's like, excuse the proof of reserves.
Speaker 3: We have the funds that we say we have, and
Speaker 3: I believe in that transparency.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's that's a well founded way of
Speaker 1: looking at it. It's just yeah, I think people know
Speaker 1: that it's that they have a crap ton of the
Speaker 1: bitcoin's overall supply now, And for the most part, maybe
Speaker 1: he's looked at more as a hero than this weird
Speaker 1: goofy guy who's just gambling, making the ultimate gamble experiment.
Speaker 1: But you know, I do think that people are, especially
Speaker 1: when prices go down, they start to turn.
Speaker 2: On him a little bit and they talk about how
Speaker 2: he's a little too leveraged.
Speaker 1: This is scary, what's going to happen if you're liquidated.
Speaker 1: So he's like the ultimate meter for people as to
Speaker 1: whether markets are moving up or down.
Speaker 2: If it's going up, he's a hero.
Speaker 1: If it's going down, he's He's like a crazy komakazi
Speaker 1: gambler that could recavoc at any moment.
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I personally, I'm not being that. Like I
Speaker 3: was happy that he was the first mover and he
Speaker 3: you know, took He was certainly brave of him and
Speaker 3: innovative of him to do that, and certainly happy. But
Speaker 3: he never used him as a benchmark. I know a
Speaker 3: lot of Big oneers sometimes they retreat him like this god,
Speaker 3: and I'm like, dude, like, don't do that. Okay, the
Speaker 3: big point, Big One doesn't need somebody like that in
Speaker 3: a sense. Right, as an asset, it is amazing and
Speaker 3: we can all participate, but we don't need to be
Speaker 3: like kissing the sailor's ass and keep buying more Big One,
Speaker 3: Like no, Right, And then the thing that worried me though,
Speaker 3: is just the amount of debt. As I said, so
Speaker 3: he kept going, kept going. He's like he's become like
Speaker 3: a bitcoin addic, like I need to keep buying. I
Speaker 3: need to keep buying. But it's dangerous, man, because it's
Speaker 3: not like he's just using the cash on the balance sheet.
Speaker 3: He's going out there raising debt and now he's doing
Speaker 3: all these different things and that has me a bit
Speaker 3: concern man. But you know, like I said, knock on wood,
Speaker 3: everything goes well, nothing collapses, because that'll be bad. And
Speaker 3: there's no major blow.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, let's just sope for a little short
Speaker 1: term rebound between now and the next time we speak.
Speaker 1: I think that's what most people watching this video are
Speaker 1: hoping for, and we're right there with you. We're happy
Speaker 1: when crypto is moving up. It's good for our businesses
Speaker 1: and it's good for you know, our overall content when
Speaker 1: we can celebrate more and more games.
Speaker 2: So let's get back on track soon, Brian.
Speaker 3: I know, the last few episodes, when we've wrapped it up,
Speaker 3: I kept saying, you know, hopefully by next time we
Speaker 3: see each other, bitcoin's pumping. I'm gonna I'm gonna do
Speaker 3: the opposite. I'm doing the inverse, Brian. I hope the
Speaker 3: next time you know we chat, biitcoin is down.
Speaker 1: I like that you're you're admitting that you're the counter indicator.
Speaker 1: It's it's best to just, you know, just like alcohol
Speaker 1: looks anonymous. You know, the first step is admitting that
Speaker 1: you're the reason that prices are going to the opposite direction.
Speaker 3: I'm a bear, and I hope the price crashes.
Speaker 2: I like that. You guys should totally believe him.
Speaker 3: All right, Brian, good stuff man, Thank you so much.
Speaker 2: Thanks Tony, good chatting