WEBVTT

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Bedtime Astronomy. Explore the wonders of the cosmos

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<v Speaker 1>with our soothing Bedtime Astronomie podcast. Each episode offers a

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<v Speaker 1>gentle journey through the stars, planets, and beyond, perfect for

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<v Speaker 1>unwinding after a long day. Let's travel through the mysteries

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<v Speaker 1>of the universe as you drift off into a peaceful

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<v Speaker 1>slumber under the night sky.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, I want you to start by picturing something well,

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<v Speaker 2>truly immense, the Sun. Our sources are telling us that

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<v Speaker 2>the Sun, just doing its thing, pumps out more power

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<v Speaker 2>than me. Get this, one hundred trillion times all the

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<v Speaker 2>electricity humanity generates across the globe. I mean that number.

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<v Speaker 2>It's not just big, it's almost impossible to really wrap

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<v Speaker 2>your head around, right, Yeah, that scale of energy. And

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<v Speaker 2>yet down here on Earth or a modern world, especially

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<v Speaker 2>our push for bigger and bigger AI artificial intelligence, it's

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<v Speaker 2>kind of hitting a ceiling, a real physical limit based

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<v Speaker 2>on how much energy we can actually feed these things

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<v Speaker 2>now we cool them. We're burning through massive amounts of

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<v Speaker 2>power just to train and run the really big machine

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<v Speaker 2>learning systems, and that demand is just going up and up.

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<v Speaker 2>So what happens when a company like Google, I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>a company that's all in on scaling AI, looks up

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<v Speaker 2>and asks, well, what if the best place, maybe the

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<v Speaker 2>only sustainable place to really scale this stuff isn't here.

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<v Speaker 2>What if it's you know, up there in space, tap

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<v Speaker 2>and right of that massive power source. Today we're doing

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<v Speaker 2>a deep dive into a really bold idea, Google's project Suncatcher.

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<v Speaker 2>We've got this fascinating, super detailed research paper that outlines

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<v Speaker 2>their technical plan for actually moving entire data centers, huge

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<v Speaker 2>stacks of computers running their own custom chips in the

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<v Speaker 2>low Earth orbit. It sounds like something straight out of

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<v Speaker 2>sci fi, honestly, but when you look at the engineering details,

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<v Speaker 2>they're surprisingly well grounded in tech. It's either here now

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<v Speaker 2>or very close.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, And that grounding, that sort of technical seriousness, is

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<v Speaker 3>what makes this more than just a cool thought experiment.

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<v Speaker 3>It's real engineering because when we talk about AI right now,

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<v Speaker 3>we're basically talking about an energy crisis that's just around

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<v Speaker 3>the corner. Training the biggest models today, they already use

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<v Speaker 3>more power than small cities. So projects on Ketcher it's

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<v Speaker 3>a serious engineering first attempt to tackle what's fast becoming

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<v Speaker 3>a huge bottleneck for the whole tech industry. It's an

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<v Speaker 3>infrastructure problem fundamentally, So for you listening in, we're going

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<v Speaker 3>to try and get past that initial wow factor and

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<v Speaker 3>really unpack the nuts and bolts of how Google actually

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<v Speaker 3>thinks they can make this work. We've got three main

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<v Speaker 3>areas we're going to break down today. First, the really huge,

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<v Speaker 3>undeniable energy advantage you get in orbit and the specific

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<v Speaker 3>orbital mechanics they need. Second, the let's call it extreme

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<v Speaker 3>engineering that's required for the communication and for keeping a

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<v Speaker 3>whole data center flying together in a tight formation. And finally,

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<v Speaker 3>something pretty surprising how well the hardware might actually hold up,

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<v Speaker 3>and the razor thin economics that really decide if this

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<v Speaker 3>whole thing makes sense in the next say decade or two.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, let's start right there with energy, because that's the

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<v Speaker 2>whole point, isn't it. That's the core problem projects suncatchers

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<v Speaker 2>aiming at. Like you said, the power demands for large

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<v Speaker 2>scale machine learning are just enormous, So why mess around

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<v Speaker 2>building ever bigger solar farms down here where you've got clouds, nighttime,

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<v Speaker 2>the atmosphere blocking sunlight land issues. Yeah, when you could

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<v Speaker 2>just put the computers right next door to the power

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<v Speaker 2>source itself.

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<v Speaker 3>It really boils down to efficiency, doesn't it. If energy

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<v Speaker 3>is your biggest cost, you go where the energy is

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<v Speaker 3>cheapest and most abundant, and the suncatch paper or their

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<v Speaker 3>analysis it suggests that solar panels in orbit could be

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<v Speaker 3>up to eight times more productive than the best ones

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<v Speaker 3>we have down here on Earth. Wow, that eight x factor,

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<v Speaker 3>that's the fundamental thing driving this whole project. It just

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<v Speaker 3>completely changes the math before you even start talking about

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<v Speaker 3>chips or rockets or anything else.

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<v Speaker 2>Eight times more productive, that's a staggering difference. Why why

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<v Speaker 2>such a huge gap? Is it just because there's no

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<v Speaker 2>atmosphere up there?

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<v Speaker 3>That's a big slice of it. Yeah, our atmosphere, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>great for breathing, but it absorbs or reflects something like

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<v Speaker 3>thirty percent of the Sun's energy right off the bat

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<v Speaker 3>and that's on a clear day, not counting clouds or

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<v Speaker 3>dust or anything. Up in LEO low Earth orbit, you're

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<v Speaker 3>getting the raw deal, full spectrum, no filtering, pure sunlight.

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<v Speaker 3>But there's actually another factor that's maybe even more powerful,

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<v Speaker 3>especially when you think about cost, and that's the idea

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<v Speaker 3>of continuous collection. See down here, even in the sunniest

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<v Speaker 3>desert on Earth, you lose half your operating time just

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<v Speaker 3>because of night plus you've got seasons, bad weather. But

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<v Speaker 3>in orbit, especially the orbit they're planning, these satellites are

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<v Speaker 3>in almost constant sunlight.

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<v Speaker 2>Almost constant sunlight. Okay, And if you get rid of

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<v Speaker 2>the night cycle, what big engineering headache just.

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<v Speaker 3>Vanishes storage batteries. It basically eliminates the biggest, heaviest, and

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<v Speaker 3>frankly most expensive part of large scale solar power on Earth,

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<v Speaker 3>which is storing enough energy to last through the night.

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<v Speaker 3>If you're generating power pretty much twenty four to seven,

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<v Speaker 3>you just don't need those massive, heavy, costly battery banks

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<v Speaker 3>that are absolutely vital for any serious solar project down here.

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<v Speaker 2>Ah right, that makes sense.

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<v Speaker 3>Heavy, incredibly heavy. Think about the mass budget for launch.

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<v Speaker 3>Lithium ion batteries add a lot of weight. To power

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<v Speaker 3>a data center on Earth through the night, you'd need

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<v Speaker 3>enormous battery arrays adds mass, adds volume, adds cost in space.

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<v Speaker 3>If you need far less battery mass, your satellite is lighter,

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<v Speaker 3>and that directly lowers the complexity and crucially the cost

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<v Speaker 3>to launch the whole thing, So that AIGHTX efficiency isn't

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<v Speaker 3>just about getting more power out. It's also about needing

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<v Speaker 3>left heavy stuff like batteries sent up there in the

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<v Speaker 3>first place. It's minimizing that dead weight.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, so Project Suncatcher isn't just about grabbing more sunlight.

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<v Speaker 2>It's using a really specific orbital trick to get that

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<v Speaker 2>continuous power. So let's talk about what this thing actually

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<v Speaker 2>looks like. What's the architecture. Is it one giant space station?

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<v Speaker 3>No, not monolithic at all. The concept is actually a

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<v Speaker 3>distributed constellation. Think lots and lots of separate satellites. Each

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<v Speaker 3>one would have its own solar panels, its own processors,

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<v Speaker 3>specifically Google's own ships, their TPUs, and they'd all be

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<v Speaker 3>connected together with super fast laser links, optical links. And

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<v Speaker 3>the orbit they chose that's really the key piece of

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<v Speaker 3>engineering here. They've zero in on a sun synchronous.

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<v Speaker 2>Low Earth orbit l e O Sun synchronous ALIO.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, sometimes called SSO, and choosing that specific orbit. It's

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<v Speaker 3>not random at all. It's this really clever bit of

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<v Speaker 3>orbital mechanics, a kind of geometric trick designed purely to

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<v Speaker 3>keep the sunlight hitting those panels almost all the time.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, for those of us listening who hear Sun synchronous

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<v Speaker 2>and maybe you just picture it following the Sun around.

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<v Speaker 2>Can you break down the orbital magic there? What makes

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<v Speaker 2>SSO so good for power?

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<v Speaker 3>Sure? So, an SSO is an orbit that goes almost

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<v Speaker 3>over the poles, a near polar orbit, and the magic,

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<v Speaker 3>as you put it, is how the plane of that

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<v Speaker 3>orbit rotates. The orbit itself actually precesses. It sort of

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<v Speaker 3>turns around the Earth at the exact same speed that

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<v Speaker 3>the Earth goes around the Sun, which is about one

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<v Speaker 3>degree per day. Okay, So the geometry works out such

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<v Speaker 3>that the satellite always crosses the equator at the same

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<v Speaker 3>local solar time every day.

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<v Speaker 2>Ah Okay, so the Sun is always hitting it from

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<v Speaker 2>roughly the same direction relative to.

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<v Speaker 3>Its pass exactly. The satellite keeps a near constant angle

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<v Speaker 3>relative to the Sun, so the solar panels can be

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<v Speaker 3>oriented to be almost perfectly perpendicular to the sunlight for

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<v Speaker 3>most of the orbit, maximizing collection. And the big payoff

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<v Speaker 3>is that the satellite hardly ever goes into Earth's shadow.

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<v Speaker 3>If it does, the eclipse is super short, maybe just

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<v Speaker 3>a few minutes. Compare that to a typical l EO satellite,

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<v Speaker 3>which might spend thirty or forty minutes in darkness every

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<v Speaker 3>single orbit difference, huge difference. This specific orbit choice guarantees

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<v Speaker 3>that almost constant sunlight, which then lets them drastically minimize

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<v Speaker 3>how many batteries they need onboard. It's really the sweet

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<v Speaker 3>spot maximum sun exposure for power, but still in low orbit,

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<v Speaker 3>which helps keep the communication latency back down to Earth

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<v Speaker 3>somewhat reasonable.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, that perfect energy supply, that constant sunlight. It leads

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<v Speaker 2>us straight into the second, really big challenge, maybe the

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<v Speaker 2>hardest one. Taking a static building some data center on

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<v Speaker 2>the ground and turning it into a swarm of individual

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<v Speaker 2>satellites flying together information that demands coordination on a scale

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<v Speaker 2>that just sounds well, incredibly difficult.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and the coordination isn't just a nice to have,

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<v Speaker 3>It's an absolute requirement, and it's driven entirely by the

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<v Speaker 3>need for fast data links between the satellites, getting that

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<v Speaker 3>data center level of performance the kind you need for

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<v Speaker 3>these giant AI models. It absolutely depends on the satellites

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<v Speaker 3>flying and what the paper calls extremely tight formation.

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<v Speaker 2>Extremely tight Why why so close as it just so

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<v Speaker 2>the lasers don't miss each other.

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<v Speaker 3>That's definitely part of it. The pointing accuracy but the

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<v Speaker 3>main reason comes back to the data link speed and

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<v Speaker 3>the latency. We'll get more into the links themselves in

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<v Speaker 3>a bit, but think about how a huge AI model works.

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<v Speaker 3>It's splitting up the job across potentially thousands of processors simultaneously.

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<v Speaker 3>All those processors need to talk to each other, share results,

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<v Speaker 3>coordinate almost instantly like.

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<v Speaker 2>Components inside a single computer.

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<v Speaker 3>Basically pretty much in a data center on Earth, those

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<v Speaker 3>processors might be connected by a few feet of fiber

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<v Speaker 3>optic cable, really short distances, giving you microsecond latency incredibly

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<v Speaker 3>high bandwidth. To get anywhere close to that kind of

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<v Speaker 3>low latency in space, you just can't have the satellites

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<v Speaker 3>drifting far apart. The paper specifies they need to be

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<v Speaker 3>separated by kilometers or less.

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<v Speaker 2>A kilometer or less, okay, even a kilometer in space.

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<v Speaker 2>When you're talking data links, that still sounds like a

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<v Speaker 2>long way for data compared to inside a server rack.

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<v Speaker 3>It is, it absolutely is, And you can't beat the

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<v Speaker 3>speed of light.

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<v Speaker 2>Right.

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<v Speaker 3>Even though light travels faster in vacuum than in fiber,

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<v Speaker 3>that kilometer distance still introduces a delay you don't have

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<v Speaker 3>on Earth. So they have to design the whole system

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<v Speaker 3>the network protocols, the way tasks are distributed. Specifically to

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<v Speaker 3>handle these slightly longer latencies, The whole constellation has to

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<v Speaker 3>function like one single massive coordinated computer cluster, even though

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<v Speaker 3>it's physically spread out over potentially you know, several miles.

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<v Speaker 2>And the altitude they're aiming for around six hundred fifty kilometers.

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<v Speaker 2>That adds another complication, doesn't it. It's LAO, sure, but

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<v Speaker 2>it's not that high. There's still some atmosphere, some drag.

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<v Speaker 3>Precisely, this isn't way out in geo geostationary orbit, where

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<v Speaker 3>drab is basically zero down at six hundred and fifty kilometers,

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<v Speaker 3>Especially when you're trying to keep potentially hundreds of these

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<v Speaker 3>things packed so closely together, maybe hundreds of meters apart

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<v Speaker 3>or less. Even tiny forces become a.

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<v Speaker 2>Huge problem, like what kind of forces.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, the residual atmospheric molecules, for one, Even though the

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<v Speaker 3>air is incredibly thin up there, it's not a perfect vacuum.

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<v Speaker 3>Hit a slightly denser patch, and it creates drag. If

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<v Speaker 3>that drag affects one satellite's big solar panel slightly differently

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<v Speaker 3>than its neighbors.

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<v Speaker 2>It could nudge them out of alignment almost immediately and

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<v Speaker 2>break those laser.

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<v Speaker 3>Lis exactly, break the links, and the whole cluster stops

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<v Speaker 3>working as a single unit. Plus you've got subtle things

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<v Speaker 3>like the fact that Earth's gravity isn't perfectly uniform. All

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<v Speaker 3>these tiny perturbations add up when you need such precise

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<v Speaker 3>relative positioning.

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<v Speaker 2>So if the forces are tiny but complex and always changing,

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<v Speaker 2>how did Google figure out if they could actually solve this,

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<v Speaker 2>this problem of keeping a distributed data center flying in

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<v Speaker 2>formation seems almost impossible.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, they didn't just guess. This is where the serious

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<v Speaker 3>engineering comes in again. They built some really sophisticated physics

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<v Speaker 3>simulations to model it. They wanted to analyze the stability

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<v Speaker 3>of these tight formations over the long haul, over the

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<v Speaker 3>whole mission lifetime.

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<v Speaker 2>What did the simulations look at?

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<v Speaker 3>Specifically, they modeled two main threats. First, those tiny irregular

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<v Speaker 3>gravitational tugs from Earth not being a perfect sphere, what

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<v Speaker 3>they're called the non gravitational field effects. And second, maybe

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<v Speaker 3>more importantly in Lo, that atmospheric drag, which, like we said,

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<v Speaker 3>is small at six hundred and fifty kilometers, but it's

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<v Speaker 3>there and it changes depending on things like solar activity,

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<v Speaker 3>puffing up the atmosphere. Even tiny differences in drag between

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<v Speaker 3>adjacent satellites over time could cause them to drift apart

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<v Speaker 3>significantly if you don't correct for it.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, that makes sense. You'd think hitting a slightly denser

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<v Speaker 2>bit of air would slow one satellite down relative to

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<v Speaker 2>its neighbor. Wouldn't that mean you need constant, powerful thruster

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<v Speaker 2>burns to keep nudging them back into place. That sounds

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<v Speaker 2>as a lot of fuel.

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<v Speaker 3>You'd think so, right, But the conclusion from their models

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<v Speaker 3>was actually surprisingly positive, which is good news for the

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<v Speaker 3>project's lifespan. The simulations indicated that they should only need

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<v Speaker 3>modest station keeping maneuvers to keep the formation stable over time.

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<v Speaker 2>Modest that's the keyword there.

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<v Speaker 3>It really is, because if they needed constant high thrust

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<v Speaker 3>chemical rockets firing, they'd burn through propellant incredibly fast. That

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<v Speaker 3>would limit the mission life drastically, and the whole economic

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<v Speaker 3>argument kind of falls apart.

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<v Speaker 2>So modest maneuvers probably means they're thinking about using things

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<v Speaker 2>like electric propulsion, ion drives, hall thrusters, stuff that SIPs

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<v Speaker 2>fuel but provides tiny pushes over long periods.

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<v Speaker 3>That's almost certainly the implication Yeah, low thrust, high efficiency

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<v Speaker 3>propulsion is perfect for this kind of longeration fine adjustment job.

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<v Speaker 3>They can provide continue uk US really small corrections for

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<v Speaker 3>years without needing massive fuel tanks, which means the mass

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<v Speaker 3>needed for station keeping stays manageable within the overall satellite budget,

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<v Speaker 3>and that helps keep the launch cost down. It all connects.

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<v Speaker 3>The source material actually mentions NASA's Stereo Observatory spacecraft as

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<v Speaker 3>a kind of parallel. Those probes needed really precise orbital

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<v Speaker 3>control at relatively low altitudes to maintain their view of

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<v Speaker 3>the Sun. The fact that Google's modeling suggests only modest

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<v Speaker 3>maneuvers are needed implies that while the formation is tight,

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<v Speaker 3>the natural orbital dynamics aren't totally fighting them. They can

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<v Speaker 3>use these efficient, low thrust systems to nudge things back

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<v Speaker 3>into place. It means that huge energy advantage they get

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<v Speaker 3>from the sun synchronous orbit isn't immediately canceled out by

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<v Speaker 3>needing tons of fuel just to hold the constellation together.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, all right, So we've got the massive power source,

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<v Speaker 2>sorted things of the orbit, and we've got a plausible,

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<v Speaker 2>simulation backed path to keeping the satellites flying to gather

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<v Speaker 2>in formation using efficient thrusters. Now the third huge piece

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<v Speaker 2>communication because if you can't shift data between all those

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<v Speaker 2>processes at blinding speed was really low latency, then you

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<v Speaker 2>don't have a data center. You just have a bunch

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<v Speaker 2>of well solar powered computers sloating near each other. Not

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<v Speaker 2>useful for big AI.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, this communication challenge, it's truly the make or break

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<v Speaker 3>piece for Suncatcher. We talked about AI workloads needing high

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<v Speaker 3>bandwidth and low latency because the tasks get split up

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<v Speaker 3>across maybe thousands of processors. If these connections between the

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<v Speaker 3>processors are slow, the whole calculation grinds to a halt.

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<v Speaker 3>It doesn't matter how fast the individual chips are. The

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<v Speaker 3>system runs at the speed of its slowest link.

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<v Speaker 2>Right.

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<v Speaker 3>So, to really perform like a data center on Earth

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<v Speaker 3>where data zips around on fiber optic cables at tens,

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<v Speaker 3>maybe hundreds of gigabits per second, these links in space

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<v Speaker 3>have to hit similar numbers across that kilometer or so

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<v Speaker 3>gap we talked about, and Google set the bar incredibly

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<v Speaker 3>high here. The goal they state is links supporting tens

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<v Speaker 3>of terabits per second between satellite.

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<v Speaker 2>Tens of terribus per seconds that's astronomical way beyond current

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<v Speaker 2>inner satellite links, isn't it.

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<v Speaker 3>Oh yeah, orders of magnitude faster. So how do you

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<v Speaker 3>possibly achieve that kind of speed across kilometers of empty space,

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<v Speaker 3>and crucially without using huge power hungry radio antennas. The

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<v Speaker 3>answer is lasers. They're relying entirely on laser based optical communication.

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<v Speaker 3>That's the key technology here.

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<v Speaker 2>Lasers. Okay, why lasers instead of radio?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, unlike radio waves which tend to spread out over

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<v Speaker 3>distance and need a lot of power to keep the

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<v Speaker 3>signal strong, lasers can focus light into an incredibly tight,

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<v Speaker 3>narrow beam think laser pointer versus a floodlight. That tight

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<v Speaker 3>focus means much less power gets wasted and you can

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<v Speaker 3>pack way more information, much higher throughput into that beam.

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<v Speaker 2>We've seen demos of this kind of thing before, right,

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<v Speaker 2>leaser cons in space.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>Absolutely. The sources mention the opal US experiment on the

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<v Speaker 3>International Space Station, for example, optical payload for lasercom science

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<v Speaker 3>that proved you could beam high bandwidth data using less

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<v Speaker 3>pretty effectively. But the challenge here is taking that proof

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<v Speaker 3>of concept and scaling it up massively, like by a

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<v Speaker 3>factor of ten or twenty maybe more to get to

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<v Speaker 3>those tens of terrabits.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, so the basic tech exists, but going from say

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<v Speaker 2>gigabits or maybe single terabt up to tens of terrabits,

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<v Speaker 2>that's a giant leap. How do they plan to squeeze

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<v Speaker 2>so much more data down the same laser plate.

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<v Speaker 3>They're planning to use some really advanced multiplexing techniques, basically

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<v Speaker 3>finding clever ways to pack more separate data channels into

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<v Speaker 3>the same physical path. The paper details two main methods working.

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<v Speaker 2>Together multiplexing like splitting the beam sort of.

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<v Speaker 3>The first is called dense wavelength division multiplexing or DWDM.

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<v Speaker 3>This is already standard practice in long haul fiber optics

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<v Speaker 3>on Earth. Imagine the laser beam is like a single highway.

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<v Speaker 3>DWDM is like painting say thirty or forty different color

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<v Speaker 3>lanes onto that same highway. Each color, each specific wavelength

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<v Speaker 3>of light carries its own independent stream of data.

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<v Speaker 2>Ah. Okay, so multiple data streams riding on different colors

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<v Speaker 2>of light within the same beam. That multiplies the capacity

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<v Speaker 2>right there exactly.

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<v Speaker 3>It leverages the spectrum really efficiently. But then they add

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<v Speaker 3>a second layer on top of that.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, what's the second layer.

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<v Speaker 3>That's spatial multiplexing technology. So if d do UDM gives

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<v Speaker 3>you multiple lanes on one highway, spatial multiplexing is like

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<v Speaker 3>building several parallel highways right next to each other. It

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<v Speaker 3>means sending multiple separate laser beams between the two satellites simultaneously,

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<v Speaker 3>all aimed very precisely at an array of sensitive receivers

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<v Speaker 3>on the other end.

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<v Speaker 2>Wow, okay, so multiple beams and each beam is carrying

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<v Speaker 2>multiple colors or wavelengths of data precisely.

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<v Speaker 3>You combine DDM and spatial multiplexing multiple colors times multiple beams.

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<v Speaker 3>That's how they aim to multiply the data rate so

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<v Speaker 3>dramatically and hit that collective target of tens of terabits

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<v Speaker 3>per second.

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<v Speaker 2>That sounds incredibly complex keeping all those beams and colors

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<v Speaker 2>aligned across a kilometer of space. Is this still just

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<v Speaker 2>theory or have they actually tested any of.

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<v Speaker 3>This is important. They have done some concrete validation, at

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<v Speaker 3>least on a lab bench, which is crucial right to

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<v Speaker 3>show the physics works. The research teams set up a

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<v Speaker 3>demonstration combining these approaches, and they successfully transmitted data at

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<v Speaker 3>a total rate of one point six terabits per second.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, one point six tvps. It's still a long way

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<v Speaker 2>from tens, but it's well, it's not zero. It shows

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<v Speaker 2>the combined technique actually functions exactly.

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<v Speaker 3>It proves the principle. And what's really interesting here is

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<v Speaker 3>how this lab success ties straight back to that need

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<v Speaker 3>for tight formation flying we discussed earlier keeping the satellites

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<v Speaker 3>separated by kilometers or less. That tight spacing it isn't

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<v Speaker 3>just for orbital stability. It's absolutely essential for making sure

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<v Speaker 3>these complex laser links can actually be scaled up and

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<v Speaker 3>work reliably. The closer the satellites are, the easier it

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<v Speaker 3>is to maintain that pinpoint accuracy needed for multiple laser

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<v Speaker 3>beams carrying multiple wavelengths to hit tiny receivers without the

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<v Speaker 3>signal degrading or getting lost.

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<v Speaker 2>Ah I see. So maintaining that close distance is basically

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<v Speaker 2>what allows the fancy multiplexing tricks to work at their

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<v Speaker 2>full potential. It protects the signal quality for those super

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<v Speaker 2>high data rates. The whole system is interconnected.

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<v Speaker 3>Totally interconnected. The formation flying enables the high speed links,

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<v Speaker 3>and the need for high speed links dictates the type formation.

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<v Speaker 3>One can't work without the other. If the formation drifts

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<v Speaker 3>too far apart, the beams misalign, the data rate crashes,

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<v Speaker 3>and your space data center just isn't a data center anymore.

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<v Speaker 3>It's just separate computers again.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, let's switch gears then to the computers themselves, the processors.

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<v Speaker 2>You can have all the power in the universe, perfect formation,

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<v Speaker 2>amazing laser links. But if the actual chips doing the work,

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<v Speaker 2>the TPUs, get fried by space radiation on day one,

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<v Speaker 2>then the whole project is obviously useless. And the usual thinking,

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<v Speaker 2>right is that regular commercial computer chifts just can't handle

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<v Speaker 2>the radiation environment in space. You normally need special rad

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<v Speaker 2>hardened components, which are expensive and usually slower.

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<v Speaker 3>That has definitely been the big hurdle for using standard

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<v Speaker 3>off the shelf hardware in space for a long time.

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<v Speaker 3>But what's really striking in the Sunketcher page is what

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<v Speaker 3>they found when they tested Googles on chips. It suggests

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<v Speaker 3>maybe that old constraint isn't quite as rigid as we thought,

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<v Speaker 3>at least for their specific architecture. They took their Trillium

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<v Speaker 3>V six E Cloud TPU, that's their custom chip designed

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<v Speaker 3>specifically for AI and machine learning, and they blasted it

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<v Speaker 3>with radiation to see how it held up, and the

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<v Speaker 3>results they're actually much better than even the researchers themselves

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<v Speaker 3>seemed to expect better.

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<v Speaker 2>In what way, how do you measure holding up against radiation?

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<v Speaker 2>We're talking about accumulated damage over time, right, Yeah, and

399
00:20:30.519 --> 00:20:33.599
<v Speaker 2>also maybe sudden failures from like a direct hit bioparticle.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, both are concerns. The study focused heavily on the

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00:20:36.799 --> 00:20:40.079
<v Speaker 3>cumulative dose tolerance, which is measured in a unit called rads.

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<v Speaker 3>It's basically how much radiation energy gets absorbed over time.

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<v Speaker 3>So for the planned five year mission in that specific

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<v Speaker 3>sun synchronous l EO, they calculated the expected total radiation

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<v Speaker 3>dose that chips would receive even with some shielding. The

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<v Speaker 3>number they planned for their baseline was seven hundred and

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<v Speaker 3>fifty rads.

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<v Speaker 2>Seven hundred and fifty rads over five years.

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<v Speaker 3>Now here's the key finding. The TPU chips themselves, the

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<v Speaker 3>core processors could actually withstand a cumulative dose almost three

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<v Speaker 3>times higher than that. They kept working properly well past

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<v Speaker 3>seven hundred and fifty rads, significantly past it before they

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<v Speaker 3>started showing any major problem.

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<v Speaker 2>Wow, three times the expected dose. That's a huge margin.

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<v Speaker 2>Does that mean that maybe the way modern chips are

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<v Speaker 2>built really small and dense, actually helps protect them somehow

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<v Speaker 2>more than older chips.

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<v Speaker 3>That seems to be exactly the implication. Yeah, modern ship

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<v Speaker 3>manufacturing with incredibly tiny transistors packed cluickally together smaller nodes,

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<v Speaker 3>it seems they might be inherently less likely to be

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<v Speaker 3>damaged by certain kinds of radiation, just less physical target

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<v Speaker 3>area for the radiation to hit.

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<v Speaker 2>Perhaps.

424
00:21:44.079 --> 00:21:46.880
<v Speaker 3>If this holds true, it's a massive deal Economically. It

425
00:21:46.920 --> 00:21:49.599
<v Speaker 3>means they might be able to use largely commercial grade processors,

426
00:21:49.640 --> 00:21:52.160
<v Speaker 3>which are produced in huge volumes and are relatively cheap,

427
00:21:52.400 --> 00:21:55.880
<v Speaker 3>instead of relying solely on expensive, low volume, specially hardened

428
00:21:55.880 --> 00:21:59.440
<v Speaker 3>space components that could drastically lower the cost per satellite.

429
00:22:00.119 --> 00:22:02.680
<v Speaker 2>Really, not every part of the system is equally tough

430
00:22:03.799 --> 00:22:07.119
<v Speaker 2>in a complex chip, Aren't things like the memory usually

431
00:22:07.200 --> 00:22:07.960
<v Speaker 2>more delicate.

432
00:22:08.480 --> 00:22:10.640
<v Speaker 3>That's a very good point, and yes, the testing showed

433
00:22:10.680 --> 00:22:14.440
<v Speaker 3>exactly that. While the main processing units were surprisingly robust

434
00:22:14.519 --> 00:22:18.400
<v Speaker 3>against the total dose, the high bandwidth memory or HBM

435
00:22:18.480 --> 00:22:21.839
<v Speaker 3>systems turned out to be the most sensitive part HBM.

436
00:22:22.000 --> 00:22:24.640
<v Speaker 2>That's the really fast memory right next to the process,

437
00:22:24.720 --> 00:22:27.720
<v Speaker 2>or crucial for feeding it data quickly for AI tasks.

438
00:22:27.920 --> 00:22:30.839
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, exactly. It's absolutely vital. If the HBM fails or

439
00:22:30.839 --> 00:22:34.400
<v Speaker 3>gets corrupted too often, the whole AI calculation grinds to

440
00:22:34.440 --> 00:22:36.680
<v Speaker 3>a halt, no matter how tough the processor is.

441
00:22:37.079 --> 00:22:40.079
<v Speaker 2>So, how did the HBM fare in the tests? What

442
00:22:40.200 --> 00:22:41.079
<v Speaker 2>was its breaking point?

443
00:22:41.200 --> 00:22:44.319
<v Speaker 3>Well, even the weak link, the HBM did surprisingly well.

444
00:22:44.400 --> 00:22:47.519
<v Speaker 3>It only started showing significant issues related to the cumulative

445
00:22:47.599 --> 00:22:50.359
<v Speaker 3>radiation dose after it had absorbed about two killer ads.

446
00:22:50.400 --> 00:22:52.400
<v Speaker 2>Two killer ads. That's two thousand rats.

447
00:22:52.240 --> 00:22:55.119
<v Speaker 3>Yep, two thousand rads. And remember the expected dose for

448
00:22:55.160 --> 00:22:58.160
<v Speaker 3>the entire five year emission with shielding was only seven

449
00:22:58.200 --> 00:22:59.440
<v Speaker 3>hundred and fifty rads.

450
00:22:59.480 --> 00:23:02.759
<v Speaker 2>So the most sensitive part lasted well over double the

451
00:23:02.839 --> 00:23:04.720
<v Speaker 2>expected mission dose before failing.

452
00:23:05.000 --> 00:23:09.480
<v Speaker 3>Correct more than double, which strongly suggests that fundamentally, the

453
00:23:09.559 --> 00:23:12.640
<v Speaker 3>high performance hardware Google is using is basically tough enough

454
00:23:12.640 --> 00:23:15.920
<v Speaker 3>for that ILIO environment, assuming they designed the shielding correctly.

455
00:23:16.720 --> 00:23:19.880
<v Speaker 3>This finding really tackles what many space engineers would probably

456
00:23:19.960 --> 00:23:22.759
<v Speaker 3>point to as the biggest technical show stopper and cost

457
00:23:22.839 --> 00:23:26.519
<v Speaker 3>driver for putting commercial style data centers in orbit. It

458
00:23:26.559 --> 00:23:28.920
<v Speaker 3>suggests the hardware might actually survive.

459
00:23:29.039 --> 00:23:34.400
<v Speaker 2>Okay, this whole thing, Project Suncatcher, it's just an amazing

460
00:23:34.440 --> 00:23:38.640
<v Speaker 2>combination of well energy physics, clever orbits, laser engineering, surprisingly

461
00:23:38.680 --> 00:23:41.039
<v Speaker 2>tough hardware. But like we said at the start, Google's

462
00:23:41.039 --> 00:23:44.039
<v Speaker 2>a business. This is a gigantic infrastructure play. It only

463
00:23:44.119 --> 00:23:47.400
<v Speaker 2>actually happens if it makes financial sense. Right, When does

464
00:23:47.440 --> 00:23:50.440
<v Speaker 2>putting computers in space actually become cheaper than just building

465
00:23:50.440 --> 00:23:52.799
<v Speaker 2>another data center down here? What's the bottom line?

466
00:23:52.960 --> 00:23:55.720
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, that's the multi billion dollar question, isn't it? And

467
00:23:55.720 --> 00:23:59.680
<v Speaker 3>the paper is refreshingly honest about it. The entire financial

468
00:23:59.720 --> 00:24:03.920
<v Speaker 3>viable ability, the whole economic case for Suncatcher, it depends

469
00:24:03.960 --> 00:24:08.000
<v Speaker 3>heavily on launch costs continuing their decline. If the cost

470
00:24:08.079 --> 00:24:10.640
<v Speaker 3>per kilogram to get stuff out of Earth gravity well

471
00:24:10.640 --> 00:24:13.519
<v Speaker 3>doesn't drop dramatically, then this whole project, no matter how

472
00:24:13.559 --> 00:24:16.079
<v Speaker 3>cool the tech is, just stays on the drawing board.

473
00:24:16.079 --> 00:24:17.799
<v Speaker 3>It's completely unaffordable. Right.

474
00:24:17.880 --> 00:24:19.279
<v Speaker 2>Launch cost is everything in space.

475
00:24:19.400 --> 00:24:21.680
<v Speaker 3>It's the biggest upfront cost by far. You have to

476
00:24:21.720 --> 00:24:24.920
<v Speaker 3>lift all that hardware, the satellites, the solar panels, the lasers,

477
00:24:24.920 --> 00:24:28.079
<v Speaker 3>the processors, the fuel for station keeping all the way

478
00:24:28.079 --> 00:24:28.640
<v Speaker 3>into orbit.

479
00:24:28.920 --> 00:24:31.240
<v Speaker 2>Just to give people a sense of scale, what does

480
00:24:31.279 --> 00:24:34.240
<v Speaker 2>it roughly cost today to launch a kilogram to l

481
00:24:34.240 --> 00:24:35.720
<v Speaker 2>EO using current.

482
00:24:35.559 --> 00:24:40.720
<v Speaker 3>Rockets ballpark figures. Even with modern reasonable rockets coming online,

483
00:24:40.839 --> 00:24:45.559
<v Speaker 3>you're probably still looking somewhere between say, fifteen hundred dollars

484
00:24:45.559 --> 00:24:48.880
<v Speaker 3>and maybe three thousand dollars per kilogram on the commercial market,

485
00:24:48.880 --> 00:24:51.119
<v Speaker 3>maybe a bit less for very large customers. Now that's

486
00:24:51.160 --> 00:24:54.279
<v Speaker 3>way way cheaper than the Space Shuttle air obviously, but

487
00:24:54.440 --> 00:24:58.279
<v Speaker 3>launching the tens, maybe hundreds of tons of hardware needed

488
00:24:58.319 --> 00:25:02.119
<v Speaker 3>for a constellation like Suncatcher at those prices, the upfront

489
00:25:02.119 --> 00:25:04.920
<v Speaker 3>cost is just astronomical, completely non viable.

490
00:25:05.559 --> 00:25:08.599
<v Speaker 2>So what's the magic number? Then? What did Google's analysis

491
00:25:08.599 --> 00:25:11.799
<v Speaker 2>say launch costs need to fall to for this whole

492
00:25:11.799 --> 00:25:14.400
<v Speaker 2>thing to start looking economical compared to the energy.

493
00:25:14.119 --> 00:25:17.920
<v Speaker 3>Savings Their analysis pinpoints are really critical target price launch

494
00:25:17.960 --> 00:25:20.000
<v Speaker 3>costs need to get below two hundred dollars per.

495
00:25:19.920 --> 00:25:21.440
<v Speaker 2>Kilogram two hundred dollars akilo.

496
00:25:21.519 --> 00:25:24.640
<v Speaker 3>Wow, yeah, two hundred dollars per kilogram. That's the threshold where,

497
00:25:24.640 --> 00:25:27.759
<v Speaker 3>according to their map, the enormous cost of building, launching,

498
00:25:27.759 --> 00:25:32.079
<v Speaker 3>and operating this space infrastructure starts to become economically justifiable

499
00:25:32.359 --> 00:25:35.799
<v Speaker 3>when weighed against the huge continuous savings from getting free

500
00:25:35.839 --> 00:25:38.200
<v Speaker 3>constant eight x more efficient solar power.

501
00:25:38.240 --> 00:25:42.000
<v Speaker 2>Two hundred dollars akilo is that's incredibly ambitious. That's not

502
00:25:42.079 --> 00:25:46.440
<v Speaker 2>just incrementally cheaper rockets. That basically requires the full dream

503
00:25:46.640 --> 00:25:51.039
<v Speaker 2>of super heavy, rapidly reusable launch vehicles to become reality,

504
00:25:51.440 --> 00:25:55.599
<v Speaker 2>right like SpaceX's Starship working at full cadence or similar systems.

505
00:25:55.640 --> 00:25:59.039
<v Speaker 3>Absolutely, they are essentially making a long term strategic bet

506
00:25:59.079 --> 00:26:02.279
<v Speaker 3>on that specific future for the launch industry, a future

507
00:26:02.400 --> 00:26:05.680
<v Speaker 3>defined by full and rapid reusability and a very high

508
00:26:05.680 --> 00:26:08.359
<v Speaker 3>flight rate. Their timeline reflects this. They project that this

509
00:26:08.440 --> 00:26:11.279
<v Speaker 3>kind of price point sub two hundred kilograms might become

510
00:26:11.319 --> 00:26:14.240
<v Speaker 3>achievable sometime in the mid twenty thirties, assuming you know,

511
00:26:14.319 --> 00:26:17.960
<v Speaker 3>continued progress and success in developing these next generation launch system.

512
00:26:17.680 --> 00:26:19.640
<v Speaker 2>The mid twenty thirties. Okay, so this isn't something they

513
00:26:19.720 --> 00:26:22.680
<v Speaker 2>expect to build next year. It's a decade plus strategic vision.

514
00:26:22.880 --> 00:26:26.880
<v Speaker 3>Definitely, it requires the whole commercial space ecosystem, especially launch,

515
00:26:27.359 --> 00:26:31.000
<v Speaker 3>to mature significantly. And that two hundred dollar kilogram target

516
00:26:31.079 --> 00:26:34.079
<v Speaker 3>probably also implicitly relies on the fact that because of

517
00:26:34.119 --> 00:26:37.480
<v Speaker 3>the ad X energy efficiency and constant sunlight, the satellites

518
00:26:37.480 --> 00:26:41.480
<v Speaker 3>themselves can be lighter, smaller solar arrays, way fewer batteries

519
00:26:41.519 --> 00:26:43.759
<v Speaker 3>than if they had to launch the equivalent power generation

520
00:26:43.920 --> 00:26:47.039
<v Speaker 3>and storage capacity needed on Earth. So the total mass

521
00:26:47.039 --> 00:26:48.960
<v Speaker 3>they need to launch is less to begin with.

522
00:26:49.079 --> 00:26:51.359
<v Speaker 2>Okay, so let's assume they hit that target. Let's say

523
00:26:51.400 --> 00:26:53.799
<v Speaker 2>launch costs do get down to two hundred dollars per

524
00:26:53.880 --> 00:26:58.119
<v Speaker 2>kilogram by the mid twenty thirties. What's the final economic verdict? Then?

525
00:26:58.200 --> 00:26:59.720
<v Speaker 2>How does space compare to Earth?

526
00:26:59.799 --> 00:27:01.759
<v Speaker 3>This This is really the punchline that ties the whole

527
00:27:01.839 --> 00:27:05.279
<v Speaker 3>vision together. At that target price point, the analysis concludes

528
00:27:05.279 --> 00:27:08.599
<v Speaker 3>that launching and operating a space based data center becomes

529
00:27:08.759 --> 00:27:12.240
<v Speaker 3>roughly comparable in cost to just the energy expenses of

530
00:27:12.279 --> 00:27:14.319
<v Speaker 3>running an equivalent AI facility on Earth.

531
00:27:14.359 --> 00:27:16.519
<v Speaker 2>We say that again, the total cost of building and

532
00:27:16.559 --> 00:27:19.440
<v Speaker 2>launching the space system equals just the electricity bill for

533
00:27:19.480 --> 00:27:20.359
<v Speaker 2>the Earth based one.

534
00:27:20.519 --> 00:27:23.839
<v Speaker 3>Roughly comparable. Yeah, think about how huge that is. The

535
00:27:24.000 --> 00:27:27.960
<v Speaker 3>massive capital cost of designing, building, launching, and maintaining this

536
00:27:28.039 --> 00:27:32.559
<v Speaker 3>incredibly complex space constellation becomes similar in magnitude to just

537
00:27:32.680 --> 00:27:34.799
<v Speaker 3>paying the ongoing power bill for a state of the

538
00:27:34.880 --> 00:27:36.319
<v Speaker 3>art AI data center down here.

539
00:27:36.400 --> 00:27:39.680
<v Speaker 2>So basically the biggest operational cost on Earth, that relentless

540
00:27:39.720 --> 00:27:42.000
<v Speaker 2>massive electricity drogic gets.

541
00:27:41.559 --> 00:27:44.759
<v Speaker 3>Utralized, pretty much neutralized yeah, it completely flips the usual

542
00:27:44.799 --> 00:27:49.799
<v Speaker 3>cost calculation down here. Energy is the huge ongoing operational

543
00:27:49.799 --> 00:27:53.680
<v Speaker 3>expense that kills you some Catcher frames. The big upfront

544
00:27:53.759 --> 00:27:56.559
<v Speaker 3>launch cost is the main hurdle. But once you clear

545
00:27:56.640 --> 00:28:00.480
<v Speaker 3>that hurdle, assuming cost drop enough, the free can continuous

546
00:28:00.559 --> 00:28:04.200
<v Speaker 3>energy from the Sun provides this massive long term economic advantage.

547
00:28:04.440 --> 00:28:08.640
<v Speaker 3>It offsets what would have been your biggest terrestrial operating cost. Okay,

548
00:28:08.720 --> 00:28:10.880
<v Speaker 3>let's try and quickly recap the main pillars of what

549
00:28:10.920 --> 00:28:13.839
<v Speaker 3>we've dug into here with projects on Catcher, we're looking

550
00:28:13.880 --> 00:28:16.960
<v Speaker 3>at this really radical but technically detailed plan to essentially

551
00:28:17.039 --> 00:28:20.079
<v Speaker 3>cut the cord between future AI growth and the limits

552
00:28:20.119 --> 00:28:24.039
<v Speaker 3>of Earth's energy grid. The technical plan is super specific.

553
00:28:24.240 --> 00:28:27.079
<v Speaker 3>We've got that huge energy advantage, solar panels maybe eight

554
00:28:27.119 --> 00:28:29.920
<v Speaker 3>times more effective, and that carefully chosen sun synchronous LAO.

555
00:28:30.599 --> 00:28:32.519
<v Speaker 3>We've talked about how they think they can get data

556
00:28:32.519 --> 00:28:35.880
<v Speaker 3>center speeds between satellites using lasers with fancy techniques like

557
00:28:35.920 --> 00:28:39.480
<v Speaker 3>DWDM and spatial multiplexing, but that relies heavily on keeping

558
00:28:39.519 --> 00:28:42.079
<v Speaker 3>the satellites in that really tight formation less than a

559
00:28:42.119 --> 00:28:46.279
<v Speaker 3>kilometer apart, using those modest efficient station keeping thrusters and

560
00:28:46.359 --> 00:28:49.279
<v Speaker 3>then there was the surprising finding about the hardware. Google's

561
00:28:49.319 --> 00:28:52.799
<v Speaker 3>own TPUs seemed tough enough to handle the elo radiation environment,

562
00:28:53.119 --> 00:28:56.319
<v Speaker 3>potentially lasting almost three times the expected dose for a

563
00:28:56.480 --> 00:28:59.759
<v Speaker 3>five year mission. Even the more sensitive memory lasted twice

564
00:28:59.759 --> 00:29:00.799
<v Speaker 3>aid as long as needed.

565
00:29:01.000 --> 00:29:04.680
<v Speaker 2>Right underpinning absolutely everything is the economics. It all hinges

566
00:29:04.759 --> 00:29:09.079
<v Speaker 2>on launch costs dropping dramatically below that two hundred dollars

567
00:29:09.079 --> 00:29:12.079
<v Speaker 2>per kilogram mark. Google thinks that's possible by the mid

568
00:29:12.119 --> 00:29:14.920
<v Speaker 2>twenty thirties, and if they hit that number, the whole

569
00:29:15.000 --> 00:29:19.400
<v Speaker 2>system starts to look financially competitive, purely based on saving

570
00:29:19.400 --> 00:29:22.599
<v Speaker 2>the massive energy costs heeding cur on Earth. So, stepping back,

571
00:29:23.400 --> 00:29:26.799
<v Speaker 2>what does this all really mean in the bigger picture

572
00:29:26.920 --> 00:29:31.160
<v Speaker 2>of technology of infrastructure? This isn't just putting servers somewhere

573
00:29:31.160 --> 00:29:34.240
<v Speaker 2>else slightly inconvenient. It feels like a fundamental shift. If

574
00:29:34.279 --> 00:29:37.559
<v Speaker 2>you can actually decouple massive computing power from the physical

575
00:29:37.559 --> 00:29:41.880
<v Speaker 2>limits of our terrestrial power grids, which right now is

576
00:29:41.880 --> 00:29:45.119
<v Speaker 2>maybe the single biggest thing holding back AI scaling, then

577
00:29:45.119 --> 00:29:47.119
<v Speaker 2>you're not just getting a bit more processing power. You're

578
00:29:47.119 --> 00:29:50.039
<v Speaker 2>potentially unlocking a whole new scale of AI development, aren't you.

579
00:29:50.160 --> 00:29:52.799
<v Speaker 2>It's about creating a tech base that isn't tied down

580
00:29:52.799 --> 00:29:54.559
<v Speaker 2>by how many power plants we can build or where

581
00:29:54.599 --> 00:29:56.599
<v Speaker 2>we can build them, or the politics around energy.

582
00:29:56.799 --> 00:29:59.640
<v Speaker 3>That really leads to the final big question. Doesn't it

583
00:29:59.680 --> 00:30:02.200
<v Speaker 3>something for you, the listener, to really chew on after

584
00:30:02.240 --> 00:30:05.359
<v Speaker 3>hearing all this, If the AI models we have today,

585
00:30:05.400 --> 00:30:08.279
<v Speaker 3>which are still relatively limited in the grand scheme of things,

586
00:30:08.559 --> 00:30:12.119
<v Speaker 3>if they are already straining power grids and consuming frankly

587
00:30:12.279 --> 00:30:15.720
<v Speaker 3>enormous amounts of energy, what scale of machine learning? What

588
00:30:15.839 --> 00:30:18.799
<v Speaker 3>kinds of problems could we tackle? What level of intelligence

589
00:30:18.880 --> 00:30:22.880
<v Speaker 3>could we potentially build if the energy source was effectively unlimited,

590
00:30:23.000 --> 00:30:26.400
<v Speaker 3>tapping into something that's literally one hundred trillion times greater

591
00:30:26.480 --> 00:30:30.200
<v Speaker 3>than our current global capacity, and the only real bottleneck

592
00:30:30.319 --> 00:30:33.599
<v Speaker 3>left becomes the cost of getting the hardware up there.

593
00:30:33.599 --> 00:30:36.920
<v Speaker 3>It's the kind of future scale project Suncatcher is aiming for.

594
00:30:37.079 --> 00:31:01.599
<v Speaker 3>That's the potential transformation they're trying to engineers

595
00:31:16.480 --> 00:31:22.160
<v Speaker 2>Us
