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Speaker 1: What is up Fellasiko's I am damn Valley coming at

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you with my Certifiantabias coast, mister Grandon Hughes with a

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little piece of bonus content. I guess you could say

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it's depressing bonus content though, Grant, then through you are, Yeah,

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if you own any of the six or Huture draft picks,

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maybe maybe you're feeling pretty good. Although they have a

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good amount of their future draft picks, which is what

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we're going.

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Speaker 2: To talk about here.

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Speaker 1: There is some Joelle Embiid news. Uh if it's not

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good news, but per Sham Shrania, Joel Ebid is gonna

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be reevaluated in seven to ten days. He will received

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treatment to address swelling in his left knee. The Sixers

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say Embiid participated in an on court workout Thursday and

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experience an increase in n swelling following the session. People

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are up in arms Grant because they think the Sixers

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are lying. And I did see I think it was

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Mike O'Connor on Twitter set And by the way through

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all this, Joel Ebid last played Gien fourth and a

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win over the nets for I think he's playing like

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thirty minutes twenty nine minutes or whatever they said. The

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most charitable way to interpret this is the Sixers are

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not lying and that as soon as Embiid went to

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work out after ten days off, he injured his knee,

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which is just a disastrous sign coming off a four year,

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one hundred ninety million dollar extension. The big question, and

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before you answer, we'll throw up what their kind of

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pickout lay looks like on the screen? Is it time

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for the Philadelphia seventy six ers to tank if they're

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not doing so already?

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Speaker 2: So I think the answer to that question depends on

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several factors, like when do you think they might get

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another shot at a highly valuable draft selection? Should that matter?

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And then you view that against the backdrop of which

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which has kind of been how we've talked about the

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Sixers really the last several years of like does anything

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matter if Joel Embiid isn't healthy? Like is does? Does

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any roster building makes sense? From like a win now

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or win in short to medium term perspective? Like if

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Embiide is this, which is to say, basically not available

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and not you know, a superstar when he is, like

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what are you even building towards? And like a what

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is your timeline, what are your priorities. It's all just

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kind of thrown up in the air. So that's that's

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most pertinent, because that first round pick this year is

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gonna go to the thunder if it falls between seven

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and thirty, And that's the immediate concern, like, what do

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you want to have happen with that if you are

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the sixers, And we have to sort of discuss all

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those related issues to get to something that resembles an answer.

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Speaker 1: So let's look at it through this season's lens alone.

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First to that, to guarantee that they keep that top

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six pick, they have to finish with a bottom two record.

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That's the only way that you can guarantee you get

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the sixth overall pick or better. Now, if you finish

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with a third worst record, you have a ninety three

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percent chance of keeping that pick. If you finish with

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the fourth worst records, you're kind of looking at like

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an eighty percent chance a little bit more than that

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of keeping it. That's I mean, those odds are fine,

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but you have to first get to a bottom four record.

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And as we record this for rickety Rocky Terribles, this

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season has been they are seven losses in front of

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the fourth worst team in the NBA. So there's seven,

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like they have to make up seven losses somewhere and

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then some is there enough time to do that? And

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then what is the like you could start ticking off, like, Okay,

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if you finish with the fifth worst record, you have

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like a sixty percent chance of keeping the pick. Kind

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I'm just kind of ballparking it here.

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Speaker 2: So how about eighth worst, because that's what they are

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right now? Do you have tankathon up? Will that tell

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you what that is?

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Speaker 1: So if they're the eighth worst, I mean they have

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you have to land inside the top four at that point,

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and they're chances of landing inside the top four would

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be I don't know, eighteen, like twenty five percent a

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little bit more than that.

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Speaker 2: Man, that's that's not favorable.

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Speaker 1: No, it's not so. I just I mean, even if

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you get down to the seventh worth record, we're talking

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about thirty two thirty three percent? Maybe is that does

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that do a forty grant?

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Speaker 2: That's still pretty scary although so like so if you're

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just going by that math, you would say, I think

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is what you're driving towards, like it like a full

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tank whatever that looks like the payoff is just so

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uncertain that it's not really quite worth it, right, Like

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that that's what the math would would dictate your plans

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are I do think you've got to weigh that against like, well,

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what are you gonna get out of like, quote unquote

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pushing this year for as many wins as you can get,

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Like what's the positive? What what are your expected returns

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on that? And if the answer is, well, if the

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answer does not, if the calculus does not include Embiid

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gets healthy at some point and you have him for

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the playoffs, looking you know, at eighty five to ninety

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percent of what his peak, I don't know, does it matter,

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You might as well go for it. You might as

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well try to tank, try to keep that pick and

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luck into number one or something, because you're dead in

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the water if Embiid is you know, unavailable, not you know,

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an all NBA level player in the postseason anyway. So

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the math is what it is, and the odds are

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what they are. But like I'm I'm still not convinced

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that the slim chance of getting a really high pick

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is a worse play than like pushing through and trying

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to do as well as you can this year. Is

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that does is that like a flawed way to think

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about it in your mind?

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Speaker 1: No, I don't think so. But as you kind of mentioned,

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if EMBIID is just kind of cooked for this season,

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let's not even we'll get into the long term mass

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back of it. Thanking at that point looks like what

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Jared McKay's already done for the year. Paul George be

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in and out of the lineup. Anyway, even if you

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don't bet so, is it just shutting down Tyr's and

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even is Tyrese Maxi alone gonna So I would view

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it as if you don't think Joel will be is

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ever gonna get right this season, why not just to

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I mean, okay, maybe you end up sending a better

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pick to Okac, but what is what is the difference

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between sending like the pick is gone then if you

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send the let's say, the seventh pick versus the thirteenth.

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Speaker 2: Pick, like what who cares? Yeah, so you're saying tank

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or whatever?

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Speaker 1: That looks just we need more information on EMBIID. But

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as you mentioned, like their schedule coming up is not

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particularly favorable, so maybe you kind of use you know,

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Joel's not gonna be available for that stretch anyway, So

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do you use the gauge of, well, let's see how

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they do against the the the Nuggets, the Calves and

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the Lakers and the Kings and then the Nuggets again

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and the Celtics and the Mavericks, and so it's just

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you could I would say, why not just increase your

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odds if you think, like, because what's the point of

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this season? If you're not, like, do you think I'll

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frame it to you this way instead? Do you think

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that they can make the playoffs without Joel Embiid?

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Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, if you get in through the play

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in that's possible. They definitely cannot win a postseason series,

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which is kind of really what should be the deciding

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factor anyway. But like so so I guess I guess, yes,

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I do think they could make the playoffs. It's possible.

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I don't know how likely that is. So so if

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that's the answer that yes, they could make the playoffs,

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does that is that does that change anything for you? Like,

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I don't know that that affects me. That doesn't make

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me want to go for it. If like, making the

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playoffs is the payoff you know.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I guess it's just because there'd be value in

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just I mean, getting to the playoffs is okay, we

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don't have a bead at least the ownership. We'll be

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happy you make gate revenue. And I guess to your point,

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I mean, when they have Maxy and George on the

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court without Joel Embiid, there are plus three per one

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hundred possessions about with a one twenty offensive rating. But

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it's just then it'd be different if George was a

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billboard of like durability.

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Speaker 2: Well, I would say too, the other potential positive of like, Okay,

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if they make the playoffs, it probably means Paul George

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stays pretty healthy and plays well, So like that's okay.

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Speaker 1: But there are you kind of burning through your good

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Paul George reps. Don't you try?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? Maybe that, but also maybe then you just feel

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better about next year and like, you know, trying again

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with and hoping Embiid, hope against hope that Embiid is healthy.

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But but yeah, like you might just be Paul George

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might only have one hundred good games left in him,

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and you don't want to burn thirty or forty of

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them to get the sixth, eighth seed or ninth seed

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or whatever.

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Speaker 1: I am ultimately against tanking for them. Don't necessarily see

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the point if they If if you could guarantee me

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they keep their pick, then it's a different discussion. But

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now let's go into if they keep their pick. So

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you have this top six draft prospect, which is a

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nice consolation prize for not making the playoffs in this season,

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going off the rails, what's the move from there? How

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often do we say, I mean, we just saw this

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team do with Jared McCain. Came in as a rookie,

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made an impact. But if you get the sixth overall pick,

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you're not working with a massive cap hold, and when

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you go into their salary for next season, they I mean,

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you could still have kJ Martin on the books, Kelly

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Abridge junior on the books. You'll have KAYLEB Martin, So

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I guess you could. You could have Andre Drummond on

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the books. You can step lader your way to something.

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But what is like, what is the value of having

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that pick as a trade asset, because what's the the

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best player that you're going to Let's just say the

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numbers number six or number five pick in this draft

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with what else you have available, and we have the

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pickout lays on the screen and then the matchings salary.

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There will be limitations. It'll be easier to do three

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and four for ones over the offseason, but like who's

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the best player, you're going to be able to grab

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for that, And oh, by the way, it has to

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be within the constraints of they'll be towing the second

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apron line if they're not going to get rid of

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some of it, if they're not gonna get rid of

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kJ Martin, like we just talked about, like okay, like

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they're gonna probably.

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Speaker 2: Be pretty close to the second apron. I mean, so

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this is just a huge complicating factor and one that

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differentiates it from like you're trying to think of like

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analogous situations, And the one that came to mind for

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me was, Okay, so the Cavs get the number one pick,

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it's Andrew Wiggins, they trade it to Minnesota and get

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Kevin Love and add Kevin Love to a team that

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ultimately makes a bunch of finals and wins a championship.

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Like that can't happen here because like you get if

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you get Cooper, if you luck out all the way

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and you get number one and you take Cooper Flag

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and not saying you would trade him, but you're gonna

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trade him for a star fourth player to add to

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MB George MAXI like, can't really do it because the

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salary constraints, like Flag doesn't make enough. Like that's just

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maybe you can trade the pick for something the most.

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Speaker 1: I'm even sorry to interrupted, like the most that that

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they're draft So if they won the lottery.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and assuming.

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Speaker 1: That the draft, like whoever signed signs for the one

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hundred and twenty percent of the rookie scale, which is

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the average, the largest cap hold would be thirteen point

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eight million as a standalone.

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Speaker 2: That's the number one pick. And what are you get

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in with that? You know, and nothing that's valuable enough

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to justify trading the pick. You're keeping the pick, if

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you're keeping that player, if you get it, so.

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Speaker 1: Then doesn't it if you want to tank? Are you

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hoping then that this gives you the opportunity to tear

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it down? Doesn't that seem what this would be more about?

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Speaker 2: Maybe? Or you're like this class is so good that

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the rookie we get might actually be one of our

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five closers or something like that. I mean, that's I

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don't know what the odds of that are not high,

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but like if it's flag just I don't know, it's

239
00:11:57,720 --> 00:11:59,279
not going to be flagg but if it's flagged, then

240
00:11:59,279 --> 00:12:01,759
maybe you're like, Okay, if this is now twenty five

241
00:12:01,759 --> 00:12:05,480
to twenty six, is looking really good you because you

242
00:12:05,559 --> 00:12:07,840
just add him to your three veterans And I don't

243
00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:10,799
know if to see what happens, but like, I wonder,

244
00:12:10,840 --> 00:12:14,159
how how do you think Darryl Moury looks at the

245
00:12:14,159 --> 00:12:18,440
calculus here, because he's always concerned with just championship equity.

246
00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:22,480
And I could imagine him deciding, or him in the

247
00:12:22,519 --> 00:12:25,080
front and the and the their analytics department in the

248
00:12:25,080 --> 00:12:29,360
front office deciding that our chances of winning a championship

249
00:12:29,559 --> 00:12:33,639
this year are x our chances of winning a championship

250
00:12:33,639 --> 00:12:36,080
in the next five years if we tank and get

251
00:12:36,519 --> 00:12:39,320
a blue chip you know, maybe the first overall pick

252
00:12:39,519 --> 00:12:42,320
or why I could see why just being higher than next,

253
00:12:42,399 --> 00:12:44,600
Like if there's no chance they're winning a championship this

254
00:12:44,720 --> 00:12:49,080
year or next, then shouldn't shouldn't you go for the

255
00:12:49,080 --> 00:12:52,080
long odds crack at the at the high pick. I

256
00:12:52,120 --> 00:12:54,320
don't know, but I bet that's how they're thinking of it.

257
00:12:54,799 --> 00:12:57,360
Speaker 1: If he decides to say, what would he Let's say

258
00:12:58,200 --> 00:13:01,399
this is too high. But if he he they have

259
00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:04,120
a two percent chance of winning the championship this year

260
00:13:04,600 --> 00:13:07,240
at their current record, they would have a twenty six

261
00:13:07,240 --> 00:13:09,360
point two percent chance of key of landing in the

262
00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:12,240
top four and keeping their pick. Do you think he

263
00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:15,440
would gravitate towards that or is a one percent or two?

264
00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:17,960
Because the way you're from me, if they decided, well,

265
00:13:18,000 --> 00:13:19,600
we just don't have a chance of winning the championship

266
00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:21,639
this year, that it almost makes sense. Let's just tank,

267
00:13:21,679 --> 00:13:23,480
see what happens, and if it doesn't, like we sent

268
00:13:23,519 --> 00:13:26,080
a good pick away, it was gonna kind of happen anyway.

269
00:13:26,360 --> 00:13:28,080
I wasn't looking at it through that, but that kind

270
00:13:28,120 --> 00:13:30,600
of makes sense. So it comes down to I mean,

271
00:13:30,639 --> 00:13:34,279
it does come back to Joel Embiid, right, But is it?

272
00:13:34,320 --> 00:13:37,600
The other question here, though, is what is now the

273
00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:40,639
sixers chances of winning a championship with this corps in general?

274
00:13:40,679 --> 00:13:43,200
Like does this what's go? We've known this stuff about

275
00:13:43,279 --> 00:13:45,919
Joel embid now forever, but does this change the calculus?

276
00:13:46,080 --> 00:13:47,960
They signed him to the four year, one hundred nineteen

277
00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:51,720
million dollar extension, dealing with more injuries. Again, you can't

278
00:13:51,720 --> 00:13:53,960
feel good about what's happening, But does this change your

279
00:13:54,000 --> 00:13:57,120
impression of forget about their pick this year? And I

280
00:13:57,159 --> 00:13:59,919
also think it's pretty clear that they're not using any

281
00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:01,840
of their assets to make trades this season.

282
00:14:01,879 --> 00:14:05,480
Speaker 2: I'd be pretty guess would be got only definite thing

283
00:14:05,519 --> 00:14:07,360
out of all of this is they're not gonna make

284
00:14:07,399 --> 00:14:10,039
win now trades that give up future first. That would

285
00:14:10,039 --> 00:14:10,519
be insane.

286
00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:14,440
Speaker 1: So let's here. The most likely outcome seems like they're

287
00:14:14,480 --> 00:14:17,639
gonna send what is a blottery pick or something close

288
00:14:17,679 --> 00:14:20,519
to it to Okay, see this year. Where do you

289
00:14:20,679 --> 00:14:24,720
go from there? Given what's going on with Joelmbeid right now?

290
00:14:27,159 --> 00:14:31,080
Speaker 2: So if that pick goes this year, I mean, that's

291
00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:33,840
to me, that is well. I mean, the one positive

292
00:14:33,960 --> 00:14:36,759
is you've conveyed it and the protections are lighter for

293
00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:39,039
next year, so that like it's even scarier because it's

294
00:14:39,039 --> 00:14:40,840
a top four protection in twenty seven, So you don't

295
00:14:40,840 --> 00:14:43,039
have to worry about that anymore. As far as like

296
00:14:43,080 --> 00:14:47,559
what you do, you're it's not any nothing changes, You're

297
00:14:47,759 --> 00:14:49,399
just like, is embiid good and healthy?

298
00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:49,759
Speaker 1: Cool?

299
00:14:49,799 --> 00:14:53,039
Speaker 2: We're gonna contend if he's not, we got nothing like,

300
00:14:53,399 --> 00:14:56,399
that's just I don't know. I don't know, Like are

301
00:14:56,399 --> 00:14:58,600
you asking, like do you try to trade him? Are

302
00:14:58,600 --> 00:14:59,080
you asking?

303
00:14:59,159 --> 00:15:02,759
Speaker 1: Like do you that that's fair? You we'd have to

304
00:15:02,759 --> 00:15:04,440
get into Okay, well, what team is going to I

305
00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:07,200
mean some team would trade for him. The contract does

306
00:15:07,279 --> 00:15:10,720
not look great at the moment, and it runs through

307
00:15:11,159 --> 00:15:13,000
so when his extension is over, he has a player

308
00:15:13,080 --> 00:15:15,679
option in twenty twenty eight, twenty nine is age thirty

309
00:15:15,679 --> 00:15:18,600
four season, a sixty nine point one million dollar player option.

310
00:15:19,720 --> 00:15:24,279
I just those out years, I mean, the present years

311
00:15:24,480 --> 00:15:28,679
aren't going well as so shouldn't you you have MAXI,

312
00:15:29,159 --> 00:15:31,200
you have McCain. And again we're assuming they won't have

313
00:15:31,240 --> 00:15:33,600
their draft pick this year, Like, don't you kind of

314
00:15:33,639 --> 00:15:35,840
at that point, see all right, like what could we

315
00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:37,720
get for Paul George and Joel Embiid? And we like,

316
00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:41,440
isn't starting over or starting almost over? Doesn't it have

317
00:15:41,519 --> 00:15:42,639
to be on the table now?

318
00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:47,559
Speaker 2: Yes? And I do think that possibility is another reason

319
00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:52,519
I would be tempted to really aggressively tank and try

320
00:15:52,559 --> 00:15:54,799
to keep this pick and hope it lands at the

321
00:15:54,919 --> 00:15:57,759
very top of what everyone agrees as an awesome draft

322
00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:01,720
because if you land, if you get a top whatever, three, four,

323
00:16:01,799 --> 00:16:07,240
five pick, then at least like when you then at

324
00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:10,080
least you have like a way forward, like and it

325
00:16:10,440 --> 00:16:12,519
maybe that's in the form of this guy actually helps

326
00:16:12,559 --> 00:16:14,679
and embiid is like good enough to play fifty games

327
00:16:14,679 --> 00:16:17,080
and whatever. But also maybe it means like we have

328
00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:19,679
a new cornerstone that's gonna be here when we blow

329
00:16:19,720 --> 00:16:21,360
all the rest of this up and get a bunch

330
00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:23,320
more picks and we're building a team around a guy

331
00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:26,320
that's like nineteen years old right now, Like I just

332
00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:29,799
think every way we look at this, and I, by

333
00:16:29,840 --> 00:16:34,159
the way, let me ask you, like, do you think

334
00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:37,399
that the sort of embid era of the sixers as

335
00:16:37,399 --> 00:16:45,399
contenders is over? Like or have you gone there yet? Uh? Yeah?

336
00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:47,480
Speaker 1: I just when is he going? Like even if he's like,

337
00:16:47,480 --> 00:16:49,320
what is he gonna look like when he's available? Like

338
00:16:49,399 --> 00:16:52,039
it's done? Yeah, So it has to be done, right.

339
00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:54,759
Speaker 2: I hate to use like a seven to ten days

340
00:16:54,759 --> 00:16:56,960
because of nie swelling thing as like the thing that's

341
00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:59,159
pushing me over the edge on this. But it's not

342
00:16:59,279 --> 00:17:01,919
just that, it's the accumulation of everything over basically his

343
00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:04,519
whole career, I ask, because I'm kind of there too,

344
00:17:04,599 --> 00:17:08,480
Like I just it's not definite, But like, what when

345
00:17:08,519 --> 00:17:12,000
does a situation like this turn around? Like he's he's

346
00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:14,000
on the back half of his career which started with

347
00:17:14,079 --> 00:17:16,880
injuries and has been defined by them throughout, Like what,

348
00:17:17,319 --> 00:17:19,519
so this is going to magically be fixed next year

349
00:17:19,559 --> 00:17:21,680
when he's a year older, Like I just like, what,

350
00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:25,200
how can you believe that? So if that's the case,

351
00:17:25,279 --> 00:17:28,279
and the odds are at least extremely long, that Embiid

352
00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:30,559
can be the centerpiece on a team that does great

353
00:17:30,559 --> 00:17:33,680
in the regular season and goes through multiple playoff rounds,

354
00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:35,839
which he's never done before, by the way, So why

355
00:17:35,880 --> 00:17:39,680
are we assuming that's going to happen now? If if

356
00:17:39,680 --> 00:17:43,359
that's where we are, then you tank and keep tanking

357
00:17:43,519 --> 00:17:45,759
like you're starting over. You just don't know it yet.

358
00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:48,680
That that's like kind of the coldest way to look

359
00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:50,359
at it, I think, And I don't know that it's wrong.

360
00:17:51,039 --> 00:17:53,880
Speaker 1: Well, how do you think that the obligation they owe

361
00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:57,640
after Okay se to Brooklyn in twenty twenty seven impacts

362
00:17:57,640 --> 00:18:00,920
this at all? So it's top eight per ten through

363
00:18:00,920 --> 00:18:03,599
twenty twenty eight, and then it turns into a second,

364
00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:07,839
you have to be pretty bad to guarantee still be

365
00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:10,079
pretty bad, I mean, to guarantee that you're gonna keep

366
00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:12,079
your time. I mean, like if it was this year,

367
00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:13,319
they'd be on pace to keep.

368
00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:16,160
Speaker 2: It, right, I mean, is it should we look at

369
00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:18,319
this as you're gonna give up one of these to

370
00:18:18,400 --> 00:18:21,720
the thunder? Uh So just one of these as a

371
00:18:21,759 --> 00:18:24,759
first so just make sure it's only one, you know,

372
00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:27,400
like instead of two, because you you really hate to

373
00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:27,799
give up.

374
00:18:27,759 --> 00:18:30,160
Speaker 1: Two if you are gonna burn it down though that

375
00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:34,160
would also consist of trading Paul George. Would the time

376
00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:37,720
to do that be this season or is it over

377
00:18:37,759 --> 00:18:38,480
the off season?

378
00:18:40,559 --> 00:18:43,920
Speaker 2: I mean, if you got it, it's probably not this

379
00:18:44,079 --> 00:18:47,640
season because everybody's terrified of big contracts. If you're not

380
00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:50,640
in the Jimmy Butler business for that money and what

381
00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:53,519
he wanted an extension, are you in the Paul George business?

382
00:18:53,559 --> 00:18:57,680
Because how different is that really going forward? Right? Minus

383
00:18:57,720 --> 00:19:01,599
the headaches and stuff? But like I guess I would

384
00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:04,440
just buy default. Say this trade downline doesn't seem to

385
00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:06,920
be the time to trade anybody, Like I think maybe

386
00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:09,440
you wait until the summer, but you have to be

387
00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:11,680
thinking about it. You might even think about Maxie. I

388
00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:14,640
don't know, like maybe you moved put Maxie out there?

389
00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:16,319
Who knows, well.

390
00:19:16,599 --> 00:19:18,680
Speaker 1: I guess I was thinking about do you see if

391
00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:20,920
anyone would take him this season without sending back the

392
00:19:20,920 --> 00:19:25,279
most damaging money. But because okay, let's say Bradley Beal

393
00:19:25,319 --> 00:19:27,759
would waive his no trade clause to go to Philly.

394
00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:30,880
Is Phoenix doing the same trade they're doing for Butler

395
00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:33,160
for Paul George? And if you're the Sixers, do you

396
00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:36,400
consider that because Bradley Beal's okay, you're saddled with a

397
00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:39,720
no trade clause then, but his deal is it amounts

398
00:19:39,799 --> 00:19:42,440
to one year shorter than Paul George's.

399
00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:47,720
Speaker 2: I don't I don't love that for I don't love it.

400
00:19:47,759 --> 00:19:49,759
I mean I like it for Phoenix. I like it

401
00:19:49,799 --> 00:19:52,000
better for Phoenix, I guess because I think Paul George

402
00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:54,119
still is just a better player than bial and they

403
00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:56,319
don't seem to care about how long that money's gonna

404
00:19:56,359 --> 00:19:58,240
go out, and they don't have their picks anyway, so

405
00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:00,319
they might as well try to try to be better.

406
00:20:00,759 --> 00:20:03,319
I don't like it at all for the Sixers, just

407
00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:06,799
because Beal. Yeah, man, that's just no.

408
00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:09,200
Speaker 1: There are no good trades, Dan, we don't have any

409
00:20:09,319 --> 00:20:12,079
The The idea was basically you would only do it

410
00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:14,000
to get that twenty thirty. So now you're just like,

411
00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:16,400
you've got this bigger stash and you're gonna go through

412
00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:18,680
the next two years or three years of this rebuild.

413
00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:21,519
I just because, but also, if you the sooner you

414
00:20:21,559 --> 00:20:23,559
move Paul George, unless you're gonna shut him down at

415
00:20:23,559 --> 00:20:25,519
some point, which maybe you do. If you are gonna

416
00:20:25,559 --> 00:20:27,480
just see, well let's just tak and see if we

417
00:20:27,559 --> 00:20:30,680
keep our pick or not moving Paul George would presumably

418
00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:31,519
help that effort.

419
00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:35,279
Speaker 2: Presumably. Yeah. Yeah, I mean you could just not play him. Basically,

420
00:20:35,319 --> 00:20:38,960
it wouldn't be that hard to sell that he's injured or.

421
00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:41,039
Speaker 1: Just And what you're not doing is you're not attaching

422
00:20:41,079 --> 00:20:42,920
picks to any of these guys to get them off.

423
00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:45,519
Speaker 2: No that I mean you can if you're if you're

424
00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:47,799
doing what we think they should do, you've got to

425
00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:49,359
keep all your own picks are precious.

426
00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:49,599
Speaker 1: Now.

427
00:20:51,640 --> 00:20:54,079
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know, man, It's it's right, it's it's

428
00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:58,160
it's a rough development. But I keep coming back to, like,

429
00:20:58,200 --> 00:21:01,480
how different are things real for the Sixers than they've

430
00:21:01,519 --> 00:21:04,240
ever been. It's just you they go as embiid goes,

431
00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:07,519
and if he can't, if he's done as the level

432
00:21:07,519 --> 00:21:11,599
of player he was, then you gotta Then then so

433
00:21:11,839 --> 00:21:14,559
is the team. Like so if he's done, you are,

434
00:21:14,599 --> 00:21:17,200
so you gotta just pivot. I guess whatever that looks

435
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:18,519
like whenever that has to happen.

436
00:21:19,119 --> 00:21:21,920
Speaker 1: Finally, though, what would you actually expect them to do?

437
00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:30,200
Speaker 2: I would expect them to at least consider the like

438
00:21:30,759 --> 00:21:34,240
the wisdom of tanking and probably conclude that, like, we

439
00:21:34,319 --> 00:21:37,200
can't get bad enough to really make this payoff in

440
00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:39,519
a sure way and kind of just go through this

441
00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:43,559
season as what they are. I would hope they wouldn't

442
00:21:43,559 --> 00:21:45,039
do that, but I kind of that feels like the

443
00:21:45,039 --> 00:21:47,599
most likely outcome to me, like not gonna treat anybody,

444
00:21:48,039 --> 00:21:48,920
just see how we do.

445
00:21:49,319 --> 00:21:51,519
Speaker 1: You might have sold me on tanking like this, Okay,

446
00:21:51,559 --> 00:21:53,519
Joel Bee's done for the year. This is lost money

447
00:21:53,519 --> 00:21:56,799
because I don't think going to nuclear out if they do,

448
00:21:57,000 --> 00:21:59,720
I agree, what happen over the offseason, I don't expect

449
00:21:59,759 --> 00:22:02,440
that though. I think they would have to win the

450
00:22:02,559 --> 00:22:06,799
draft lottery, and even then if you could, like I mean,

451
00:22:06,839 --> 00:22:09,000
but that's the problem too, is Okay, you have Cooper flag.

452
00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:10,920
If you want to stay under the second aprons that

453
00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:13,720
you can combine contracts. I guess over the offseason you

454
00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:17,279
can combine those contracts and then just finish under the

455
00:22:17,319 --> 00:22:20,400
second apron. But at the same time, if you're trading

456
00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:22,319
for a really good player, the odds of you getting

457
00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:25,440
cheaper in the process are very slim. It's so confusing,

458
00:22:25,519 --> 00:22:27,839
But my point being, you've almost talked me to the

459
00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:30,279
idea of as of right now, you have a twenty

460
00:22:30,319 --> 00:22:32,440
six pointy two percent chance of landing in the top

461
00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:35,319
four if you finish here, and do you think they

462
00:22:35,319 --> 00:22:38,559
can out tank anybody that's below them? Yeah, so you

463
00:22:38,599 --> 00:22:42,880
have Brooklyn, Portland, Utah, Toronto, Charlotte, New Orleans, and Washington,

464
00:22:43,519 --> 00:22:46,319
not necessarily at all like all those You know, those

465
00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:51,000
teams are as incentivized or more so, and just as

466
00:22:51,039 --> 00:22:51,799
bad or worse.

467
00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:53,920
Speaker 2: So like that, like, how do you get they have

468
00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:56,160
to be so much worse than so many of those

469
00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:59,559
teams to guarantee that pick. I still think if it's me,

470
00:22:59,599 --> 00:23:03,359
I'm trying and worst case scenario, like you said, you

471
00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:05,400
give up the number eight pick or the number seven

472
00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:07,759
pick or whatever. But at least that's off at least

473
00:23:07,799 --> 00:23:10,839
that's done. That that's the upside. I think if I'm

474
00:23:10,839 --> 00:23:14,519
the Sixers, I think what the Sixers are thinking, maybe

475
00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:16,720
if they're not doing the Darryl Morey math that I

476
00:23:16,759 --> 00:23:21,160
suggested of like championship equity, is they're saying, well, this

477
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:23,839
summer in Bead's not gonna be in the Olympics. We

478
00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:27,039
get a full season, full offseason or rehab. Yeah, we

479
00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:29,720
got it. Well, we never really got to never really,

480
00:23:29,799 --> 00:23:31,720
we never got to see these three guys for an

481
00:23:31,759 --> 00:23:35,000
extended stretch. Let's go into next year. We'll make some

482
00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:36,960
kind of trade with our picks in the offseason and

483
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:39,680
try to add more talent, and and let's take a

484
00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:41,960
shot at it. I just don't I don't think the

485
00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:44,240
payoff is very likely if they go that route.

486
00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:47,640
Speaker 1: My whole thing though, is they're not gonna So as

487
00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:49,880
of right now, they're at the eighth worst record. The

488
00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:52,039
only team that's in danger of being worse than the

489
00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:54,960
moving forward, I think when you look at the like

490
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:57,680
the other team are the Bulls, and so I would

491
00:23:57,680 --> 00:23:59,640
say because like the Warriors, the Spurs, the Sun of

492
00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:02,440
the King, the Pistons, the Heat, like those don't seem

493
00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:04,680
like team first of all the sixers have a bunch

494
00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:08,240
of losses on most of those teams already, So I

495
00:24:08,279 --> 00:24:10,240
think you could also just look at it this way,

496
00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:14,079
as if you stay the course, at worst, you're gonna

497
00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:16,559
have a twenty one percent chance of keeping your pick.

498
00:24:16,799 --> 00:24:18,559
How much different if you tank and you end up

499
00:24:18,559 --> 00:24:20,440
with a twenty six percent chance, or maybe you're able

500
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:22,960
to out tank the Nets or the Blazers or something,

501
00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:24,880
So they could just stay the course and the odds

502
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:27,720
might not change that. That's probably what ends up happening.

503
00:24:27,759 --> 00:24:30,160
But you sold me on the idea of if you

504
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:32,920
just sit here and say you have a zero percent

505
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:36,519
chance of winning the title this season, having going after

506
00:24:36,559 --> 00:24:38,720
a twenty six percent chance of keeping this pick, and

507
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:40,680
then you just figure out what to do, like the

508
00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:43,480
if the nightmare scenario is like you end up with

509
00:24:43,519 --> 00:24:45,319
a top four prospect and you have to figure out

510
00:24:45,319 --> 00:24:47,359
whether to rebuild or turn them into a player that

511
00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:49,920
helps you. That's a pretty fucking great problem.

512
00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:52,400
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, it's you. You trade your situation right now

513
00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:54,160
for that in a heartbeat. That's you have all the

514
00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:57,359
same problems except you have Cooper Flag or whatever, Ace

515
00:24:57,400 --> 00:24:59,599
Baal or whatever like. That's that's a better place to be.

516
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:02,039
Speaker 1: Do you have any predictions before we get out of here?

517
00:25:02,079 --> 00:25:05,519
Of where do you think are the Sixers gonna? I

518
00:25:05,599 --> 00:25:07,960
just does JU wanna bead of it all? Just you're right,

519
00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:11,039
a seven to ten day update should not be having

520
00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:13,920
us all in a tizzy. But you're right, it's the

521
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:17,759
accumulation of everything that's happened. And I just don't because

522
00:25:17,759 --> 00:25:19,559
you could also say, if Duella be t healthy, you're

523
00:25:19,559 --> 00:25:21,680
just in the play in imagine being the one or

524
00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:24,119
two seed in the East and your reward is playing

525
00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:26,680
a Sixers seem last, dwell and beat available.

526
00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:29,319
Speaker 2: And I think my prediction ultimately will be that the

527
00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:32,880
Sixers will hold out hope that that's a possibility and

528
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:35,319
recognize that it's really really going to be hard for

529
00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:38,519
them to improve their lottery odds from here and just

530
00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:41,319
kind of grit their teeth, go for it and whatever

531
00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:44,240
that means. Maybe Embiid gets back and he looks better

532
00:25:44,279 --> 00:25:46,960
than he has at any point this year. It's not

533
00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:49,720
what I would do, but I think that's probably the

534
00:25:49,759 --> 00:25:50,559
way things go here.

535
00:25:51,039 --> 00:25:55,480
Speaker 1: Even the middle ground would just be saying, until you

536
00:25:55,559 --> 00:25:58,759
know Joel Embiid can't play again this year, you kind

537
00:25:58,759 --> 00:26:00,519
of just stay in the course. That's to a point

538
00:26:00,519 --> 00:26:02,880
where it's, oh, we're in the play in but he's

539
00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:04,920
not available, then just throw the playing games and like,

540
00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:06,599
just make sure that your lottery odds are as high

541
00:26:06,599 --> 00:26:08,680
as possible that way or so, I don't I don't know,

542
00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:11,480
but that's probably the middle ground. But you I came

543
00:26:11,519 --> 00:26:13,480
into this saying there's just no reason for them to tank,

544
00:26:13,519 --> 00:26:15,640
and you sold me on the idea of I don't

545
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:18,319
think they're gonna even come close to winning the championship

546
00:26:18,559 --> 00:26:20,960
this year, and so why not just try and juice

547
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:22,799
the odds of keeping your pick to twenty one to

548
00:26:22,839 --> 00:26:23,680
twenty six percent.

549
00:26:24,039 --> 00:26:26,079
Speaker 2: It's a more way to look at it. I don't

550
00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:28,279
know if that's right, but but I do think that's

551
00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:30,039
that's going to be a consideration.

552
00:26:30,079 --> 00:26:31,720
Speaker 1: At least we're gonna eat some crow on the off

553
00:26:31,799 --> 00:26:34,279
season grades that we gave them, though when we regrade

554
00:26:34,279 --> 00:26:35,519
those later, I'll tell you that much.

555
00:26:35,599 --> 00:26:39,960
Speaker 2: I regret nothing. I stand on it. Those were good moves.

556
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:44,440
Speaker 1: Are unless you have anything else, are you ready to

557
00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:45,319
take us out of here?

558
00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:48,559
Speaker 2: No? Thanks everybody for listening, for watching. Remember Rate Review,

559
00:26:48,599 --> 00:26:52,000
subscribe where you're listening to your podcast subscribeing YouTube as well.

560
00:26:52,079 --> 00:26:53,880
Leave us some comments there, let us know what you

561
00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:55,519
think the Sixers should do and what they will do,

562
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:57,839
and whether are those whether those are the same things

563
00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:00,599
or different things. As we've kind of equivocated, It's twenty here,

564
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:04,359
in twenty five minutes. Thanks everybody, shouts Franklin Quine. Apologies.

565
00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:04,880
Jared Allen

