Speaker 1: What is up Fellasiko's I am damn Valley coming at
you with my Certifiantabias coast, mister Grandon Hughes with a
little piece of bonus content. I guess you could say
it's depressing bonus content though, Grant, then through you are, Yeah,
if you own any of the six or Huture draft picks,
maybe maybe you're feeling pretty good. Although they have a
good amount of their future draft picks, which is what
we're going.
Speaker 2: To talk about here.
Speaker 1: There is some Joelle Embiid news. Uh if it's not
good news, but per Sham Shrania, Joel Ebid is gonna
be reevaluated in seven to ten days. He will received
treatment to address swelling in his left knee. The Sixers
say Embiid participated in an on court workout Thursday and
experience an increase in n swelling following the session. People
are up in arms Grant because they think the Sixers
are lying. And I did see I think it was
Mike O'Connor on Twitter set And by the way through
all this, Joel Ebid last played Gien fourth and a
win over the nets for I think he's playing like
thirty minutes twenty nine minutes or whatever they said. The
most charitable way to interpret this is the Sixers are
not lying and that as soon as Embiid went to
work out after ten days off, he injured his knee,
which is just a disastrous sign coming off a four year,
one hundred ninety million dollar extension. The big question, and
before you answer, we'll throw up what their kind of
pickout lay looks like on the screen? Is it time
for the Philadelphia seventy six ers to tank if they're
not doing so already?
Speaker 2: So I think the answer to that question depends on
several factors, like when do you think they might get
another shot at a highly valuable draft selection? Should that matter?
And then you view that against the backdrop of which
which has kind of been how we've talked about the
Sixers really the last several years of like does anything
matter if Joel Embiid isn't healthy? Like is does? Does
any roster building makes sense? From like a win now
or win in short to medium term perspective? Like if
Embiide is this, which is to say, basically not available
and not you know, a superstar when he is, like
what are you even building towards? And like a what
is your timeline, what are your priorities. It's all just
kind of thrown up in the air. So that's that's
most pertinent, because that first round pick this year is
gonna go to the thunder if it falls between seven
and thirty, And that's the immediate concern, like, what do
you want to have happen with that if you are
the sixers, And we have to sort of discuss all
those related issues to get to something that resembles an answer.
Speaker 1: So let's look at it through this season's lens alone.
First to that, to guarantee that they keep that top
six pick, they have to finish with a bottom two record.
That's the only way that you can guarantee you get
the sixth overall pick or better. Now, if you finish
with a third worst record, you have a ninety three
percent chance of keeping that pick. If you finish with
the fourth worst records, you're kind of looking at like
an eighty percent chance a little bit more than that
of keeping it. That's I mean, those odds are fine,
but you have to first get to a bottom four record.
And as we record this for rickety Rocky Terribles, this
season has been they are seven losses in front of
the fourth worst team in the NBA. So there's seven,
like they have to make up seven losses somewhere and
then some is there enough time to do that? And
then what is the like you could start ticking off, like, Okay,
if you finish with the fifth worst record, you have
like a sixty percent chance of keeping the pick. Kind
I'm just kind of ballparking it here.
Speaker 2: So how about eighth worst, because that's what they are
right now? Do you have tankathon up? Will that tell
you what that is?
Speaker 1: So if they're the eighth worst, I mean they have
you have to land inside the top four at that point,
and they're chances of landing inside the top four would
be I don't know, eighteen, like twenty five percent a
little bit more than that.
Speaker 2: Man, that's that's not favorable.
Speaker 1: No, it's not so. I just I mean, even if
you get down to the seventh worth record, we're talking
about thirty two thirty three percent? Maybe is that does
that do a forty grant?
Speaker 2: That's still pretty scary although so like so if you're
just going by that math, you would say, I think
is what you're driving towards, like it like a full
tank whatever that looks like the payoff is just so
uncertain that it's not really quite worth it, right, Like
that that's what the math would would dictate your plans
are I do think you've got to weigh that against like, well,
what are you gonna get out of like, quote unquote
pushing this year for as many wins as you can get,
Like what's the positive? What what are your expected returns
on that? And if the answer is, well, if the
answer does not, if the calculus does not include Embiid
gets healthy at some point and you have him for
the playoffs, looking you know, at eighty five to ninety
percent of what his peak, I don't know, does it matter,
You might as well go for it. You might as
well try to tank, try to keep that pick and
luck into number one or something, because you're dead in
the water if Embiid is you know, unavailable, not you know,
an all NBA level player in the postseason anyway. So
the math is what it is, and the odds are
what they are. But like I'm I'm still not convinced
that the slim chance of getting a really high pick
is a worse play than like pushing through and trying
to do as well as you can this year. Is
that does is that like a flawed way to think
about it in your mind?
Speaker 1: No, I don't think so. But as you kind of mentioned,
if EMBIID is just kind of cooked for this season,
let's not even we'll get into the long term mass
back of it. Thanking at that point looks like what
Jared McKay's already done for the year. Paul George be
in and out of the lineup. Anyway, even if you
don't bet so, is it just shutting down Tyr's and
even is Tyrese Maxi alone gonna So I would view
it as if you don't think Joel will be is
ever gonna get right this season, why not just to
I mean, okay, maybe you end up sending a better
pick to Okac, but what is what is the difference
between sending like the pick is gone then if you
send the let's say, the seventh pick versus the thirteenth.
Speaker 2: Pick, like what who cares? Yeah, so you're saying tank
or whatever?
Speaker 1: That looks just we need more information on EMBIID. But
as you mentioned, like their schedule coming up is not
particularly favorable, so maybe you kind of use you know,
Joel's not gonna be available for that stretch anyway, So
do you use the gauge of, well, let's see how
they do against the the the Nuggets, the Calves and
the Lakers and the Kings and then the Nuggets again
and the Celtics and the Mavericks, and so it's just
you could I would say, why not just increase your
odds if you think, like, because what's the point of
this season? If you're not, like, do you think I'll
frame it to you this way instead? Do you think
that they can make the playoffs without Joel Embiid?
Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, if you get in through the play
in that's possible. They definitely cannot win a postseason series,
which is kind of really what should be the deciding
factor anyway. But like so so I guess I guess, yes,
I do think they could make the playoffs. It's possible.
I don't know how likely that is. So so if
that's the answer that yes, they could make the playoffs,
does that is that does that change anything for you? Like,
I don't know that that affects me. That doesn't make
me want to go for it. If like, making the
playoffs is the payoff you know.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I guess it's just because there'd be value in
just I mean, getting to the playoffs is okay, we
don't have a bead at least the ownership. We'll be
happy you make gate revenue. And I guess to your point,
I mean, when they have Maxy and George on the
court without Joel Embiid, there are plus three per one
hundred possessions about with a one twenty offensive rating. But
it's just then it'd be different if George was a
billboard of like durability.
Speaker 2: Well, I would say too, the other potential positive of like, Okay,
if they make the playoffs, it probably means Paul George
stays pretty healthy and plays well, So like that's okay.
Speaker 1: But there are you kind of burning through your good
Paul George reps. Don't you try?
Speaker 2: Yeah? Maybe that, but also maybe then you just feel
better about next year and like, you know, trying again
with and hoping Embiid, hope against hope that Embiid is healthy.
But but yeah, like you might just be Paul George
might only have one hundred good games left in him,
and you don't want to burn thirty or forty of
them to get the sixth, eighth seed or ninth seed
or whatever.
Speaker 1: I am ultimately against tanking for them. Don't necessarily see
the point if they If if you could guarantee me
they keep their pick, then it's a different discussion. But
now let's go into if they keep their pick. So
you have this top six draft prospect, which is a
nice consolation prize for not making the playoffs in this season,
going off the rails, what's the move from there? How
often do we say, I mean, we just saw this
team do with Jared McCain. Came in as a rookie,
made an impact. But if you get the sixth overall pick,
you're not working with a massive cap hold, and when
you go into their salary for next season, they I mean,
you could still have kJ Martin on the books, Kelly
Abridge junior on the books. You'll have KAYLEB Martin, So
I guess you could. You could have Andre Drummond on
the books. You can step lader your way to something.
But what is like, what is the value of having
that pick as a trade asset, because what's the the
best player that you're going to Let's just say the
numbers number six or number five pick in this draft
with what else you have available, and we have the
pickout lays on the screen and then the matchings salary.
There will be limitations. It'll be easier to do three
and four for ones over the offseason, but like who's
the best player, you're going to be able to grab
for that, And oh, by the way, it has to
be within the constraints of they'll be towing the second
apron line if they're not going to get rid of
some of it, if they're not gonna get rid of
kJ Martin, like we just talked about, like okay, like
they're gonna probably.
Speaker 2: Be pretty close to the second apron. I mean, so
this is just a huge complicating factor and one that
differentiates it from like you're trying to think of like
analogous situations, And the one that came to mind for
me was, Okay, so the Cavs get the number one pick,
it's Andrew Wiggins, they trade it to Minnesota and get
Kevin Love and add Kevin Love to a team that
ultimately makes a bunch of finals and wins a championship.
Like that can't happen here because like you get if
you get Cooper, if you luck out all the way
and you get number one and you take Cooper Flag
and not saying you would trade him, but you're gonna
trade him for a star fourth player to add to
MB George MAXI like, can't really do it because the
salary constraints, like Flag doesn't make enough. Like that's just
maybe you can trade the pick for something the most.
Speaker 1: I'm even sorry to interrupted, like the most that that
they're draft So if they won the lottery.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and assuming.
Speaker 1: That the draft, like whoever signed signs for the one
hundred and twenty percent of the rookie scale, which is
the average, the largest cap hold would be thirteen point
eight million as a standalone.
Speaker 2: That's the number one pick. And what are you get
in with that? You know, and nothing that's valuable enough
to justify trading the pick. You're keeping the pick, if
you're keeping that player, if you get it, so.
Speaker 1: Then doesn't it if you want to tank? Are you
hoping then that this gives you the opportunity to tear
it down? Doesn't that seem what this would be more about?
Speaker 2: Maybe? Or you're like this class is so good that
the rookie we get might actually be one of our
five closers or something like that. I mean, that's I
don't know what the odds of that are not high,
but like if it's flag just I don't know, it's
not going to be flagg but if it's flagged, then
maybe you're like, Okay, if this is now twenty five
to twenty six, is looking really good you because you
just add him to your three veterans And I don't
know if to see what happens, but like, I wonder,
how how do you think Darryl Moury looks at the
calculus here, because he's always concerned with just championship equity.
And I could imagine him deciding, or him in the
front and the and the their analytics department in the
front office deciding that our chances of winning a championship
this year are x our chances of winning a championship
in the next five years if we tank and get
a blue chip you know, maybe the first overall pick
or why I could see why just being higher than next,
Like if there's no chance they're winning a championship this
year or next, then shouldn't shouldn't you go for the
long odds crack at the at the high pick. I
don't know, but I bet that's how they're thinking of it.
Speaker 1: If he decides to say, what would he Let's say
this is too high. But if he he they have
a two percent chance of winning the championship this year
at their current record, they would have a twenty six
point two percent chance of key of landing in the
top four and keeping their pick. Do you think he
would gravitate towards that or is a one percent or two?
Because the way you're from me, if they decided, well,
we just don't have a chance of winning the championship
this year, that it almost makes sense. Let's just tank,
see what happens, and if it doesn't, like we sent
a good pick away, it was gonna kind of happen anyway.
I wasn't looking at it through that, but that kind
of makes sense. So it comes down to I mean,
it does come back to Joel Embiid, right, But is it?
The other question here, though, is what is now the
sixers chances of winning a championship with this corps in general?
Like does this what's go? We've known this stuff about
Joel embid now forever, but does this change the calculus?
They signed him to the four year, one hundred nineteen
million dollar extension, dealing with more injuries. Again, you can't
feel good about what's happening, But does this change your
impression of forget about their pick this year? And I
also think it's pretty clear that they're not using any
of their assets to make trades this season.
Speaker 2: I'd be pretty guess would be got only definite thing
out of all of this is they're not gonna make
win now trades that give up future first. That would
be insane.
Speaker 1: So let's here. The most likely outcome seems like they're
gonna send what is a blottery pick or something close
to it to Okay, see this year. Where do you
go from there? Given what's going on with Joelmbeid right now?
Speaker 2: So if that pick goes this year, I mean, that's
to me, that is well. I mean, the one positive
is you've conveyed it and the protections are lighter for
next year, so that like it's even scarier because it's
a top four protection in twenty seven, So you don't
have to worry about that anymore. As far as like
what you do, you're it's not any nothing changes, You're
just like, is embiid good and healthy?
Speaker 1: Cool?
Speaker 2: We're gonna contend if he's not, we got nothing like,
that's just I don't know. I don't know, Like are
you asking, like do you try to trade him? Are
you asking?
Speaker 1: Like do you that that's fair? You we'd have to
get into Okay, well, what team is going to I
mean some team would trade for him. The contract does
not look great at the moment, and it runs through
so when his extension is over, he has a player
option in twenty twenty eight, twenty nine is age thirty
four season, a sixty nine point one million dollar player option.
I just those out years, I mean, the present years
aren't going well as so shouldn't you you have MAXI,
you have McCain. And again we're assuming they won't have
their draft pick this year, Like, don't you kind of
at that point, see all right, like what could we
get for Paul George and Joel Embiid? And we like,
isn't starting over or starting almost over? Doesn't it have
to be on the table now?
Speaker 2: Yes? And I do think that possibility is another reason
I would be tempted to really aggressively tank and try
to keep this pick and hope it lands at the
very top of what everyone agrees as an awesome draft
because if you land, if you get a top whatever, three, four,
five pick, then at least like when you then at
least you have like a way forward, like and it
maybe that's in the form of this guy actually helps
and embiid is like good enough to play fifty games
and whatever. But also maybe it means like we have
a new cornerstone that's gonna be here when we blow
all the rest of this up and get a bunch
more picks and we're building a team around a guy
that's like nineteen years old right now, Like I just
think every way we look at this, and I, by
the way, let me ask you, like, do you think
that the sort of embid era of the sixers as
contenders is over? Like or have you gone there yet? Uh? Yeah?
Speaker 1: I just when is he going? Like even if he's like,
what is he gonna look like when he's available? Like
it's done? Yeah, So it has to be done, right.
Speaker 2: I hate to use like a seven to ten days
because of nie swelling thing as like the thing that's
pushing me over the edge on this. But it's not
just that, it's the accumulation of everything over basically his
whole career, I ask, because I'm kind of there too,
Like I just it's not definite, But like, what when
does a situation like this turn around? Like he's he's
on the back half of his career which started with
injuries and has been defined by them throughout, Like what,
so this is going to magically be fixed next year
when he's a year older, Like I just like, what,
how can you believe that? So if that's the case,
and the odds are at least extremely long, that Embiid
can be the centerpiece on a team that does great
in the regular season and goes through multiple playoff rounds,
which he's never done before, by the way, So why
are we assuming that's going to happen now? If if
that's where we are, then you tank and keep tanking
like you're starting over. You just don't know it yet.
That that's like kind of the coldest way to look
at it, I think, And I don't know that it's wrong.
Speaker 1: Well, how do you think that the obligation they owe
after Okay se to Brooklyn in twenty twenty seven impacts
this at all? So it's top eight per ten through
twenty twenty eight, and then it turns into a second,
you have to be pretty bad to guarantee still be
pretty bad, I mean, to guarantee that you're gonna keep
your time. I mean, like if it was this year,
they'd be on pace to keep.
Speaker 2: It, right, I mean, is it should we look at
this as you're gonna give up one of these to
the thunder? Uh So just one of these as a
first so just make sure it's only one, you know,
like instead of two, because you you really hate to
give up.
Speaker 1: Two if you are gonna burn it down though that
would also consist of trading Paul George. Would the time
to do that be this season or is it over
the off season?
Speaker 2: I mean, if you got it, it's probably not this
season because everybody's terrified of big contracts. If you're not
in the Jimmy Butler business for that money and what
he wanted an extension, are you in the Paul George business?
Because how different is that really going forward? Right? Minus
the headaches and stuff? But like I guess I would
just buy default. Say this trade downline doesn't seem to
be the time to trade anybody, Like I think maybe
you wait until the summer, but you have to be
thinking about it. You might even think about Maxie. I
don't know, like maybe you moved put Maxie out there?
Who knows, well.
Speaker 1: I guess I was thinking about do you see if
anyone would take him this season without sending back the
most damaging money. But because okay, let's say Bradley Beal
would waive his no trade clause to go to Philly.
Is Phoenix doing the same trade they're doing for Butler
for Paul George? And if you're the Sixers, do you
consider that because Bradley Beal's okay, you're saddled with a
no trade clause then, but his deal is it amounts
to one year shorter than Paul George's.
Speaker 2: I don't I don't love that for I don't love it.
I mean I like it for Phoenix. I like it
better for Phoenix, I guess because I think Paul George
still is just a better player than bial and they
don't seem to care about how long that money's gonna
go out, and they don't have their picks anyway, so
they might as well try to try to be better.
I don't like it at all for the Sixers, just
because Beal. Yeah, man, that's just no.
Speaker 1: There are no good trades, Dan, we don't have any
The The idea was basically you would only do it
to get that twenty thirty. So now you're just like,
you've got this bigger stash and you're gonna go through
the next two years or three years of this rebuild.
I just because, but also, if you the sooner you
move Paul George, unless you're gonna shut him down at
some point, which maybe you do. If you are gonna
just see, well let's just tak and see if we
keep our pick or not moving Paul George would presumably
help that effort.
Speaker 2: Presumably. Yeah. Yeah, I mean you could just not play him. Basically,
it wouldn't be that hard to sell that he's injured or.
Speaker 1: Just And what you're not doing is you're not attaching
picks to any of these guys to get them off.
Speaker 2: No that I mean you can if you're if you're
doing what we think they should do, you've got to
keep all your own picks are precious.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know, man, It's it's right, it's it's
it's a rough development. But I keep coming back to, like,
how different are things real for the Sixers than they've
ever been. It's just you they go as embiid goes,
and if he can't, if he's done as the level
of player he was, then you gotta Then then so
is the team. Like so if he's done, you are,
so you gotta just pivot. I guess whatever that looks
like whenever that has to happen.
Speaker 1: Finally, though, what would you actually expect them to do?
Speaker 2: I would expect them to at least consider the like
the wisdom of tanking and probably conclude that, like, we
can't get bad enough to really make this payoff in
a sure way and kind of just go through this
season as what they are. I would hope they wouldn't
do that, but I kind of that feels like the
most likely outcome to me, like not gonna treat anybody,
just see how we do.
Speaker 1: You might have sold me on tanking like this, Okay,
Joel Bee's done for the year. This is lost money
because I don't think going to nuclear out if they do,
I agree, what happen over the offseason, I don't expect
that though. I think they would have to win the
draft lottery, and even then if you could, like I mean,
but that's the problem too, is Okay, you have Cooper flag.
If you want to stay under the second aprons that
you can combine contracts. I guess over the offseason you
can combine those contracts and then just finish under the
second apron. But at the same time, if you're trading
for a really good player, the odds of you getting
cheaper in the process are very slim. It's so confusing,
But my point being, you've almost talked me to the
idea of as of right now, you have a twenty
six pointy two percent chance of landing in the top
four if you finish here, and do you think they
can out tank anybody that's below them? Yeah, so you
have Brooklyn, Portland, Utah, Toronto, Charlotte, New Orleans, and Washington,
not necessarily at all like all those You know, those
teams are as incentivized or more so, and just as
bad or worse.
Speaker 2: So like that, like, how do you get they have
to be so much worse than so many of those
teams to guarantee that pick. I still think if it's me,
I'm trying and worst case scenario, like you said, you
give up the number eight pick or the number seven
pick or whatever. But at least that's off at least
that's done. That that's the upside. I think if I'm
the Sixers, I think what the Sixers are thinking, maybe
if they're not doing the Darryl Morey math that I
suggested of like championship equity, is they're saying, well, this
summer in Bead's not gonna be in the Olympics. We
get a full season, full offseason or rehab. Yeah, we
got it. Well, we never really got to never really,
we never got to see these three guys for an
extended stretch. Let's go into next year. We'll make some
kind of trade with our picks in the offseason and
try to add more talent, and and let's take a
shot at it. I just don't I don't think the
payoff is very likely if they go that route.
Speaker 1: My whole thing though, is they're not gonna So as
of right now, they're at the eighth worst record. The
only team that's in danger of being worse than the
moving forward, I think when you look at the like
the other team are the Bulls, and so I would
say because like the Warriors, the Spurs, the Sun of
the King, the Pistons, the Heat, like those don't seem
like team first of all the sixers have a bunch
of losses on most of those teams already, So I
think you could also just look at it this way,
as if you stay the course, at worst, you're gonna
have a twenty one percent chance of keeping your pick.
How much different if you tank and you end up
with a twenty six percent chance, or maybe you're able
to out tank the Nets or the Blazers or something,
So they could just stay the course and the odds
might not change that. That's probably what ends up happening.
But you sold me on the idea of if you
just sit here and say you have a zero percent
chance of winning the title this season, having going after
a twenty six percent chance of keeping this pick, and
then you just figure out what to do, like the
if the nightmare scenario is like you end up with
a top four prospect and you have to figure out
whether to rebuild or turn them into a player that
helps you. That's a pretty fucking great problem.
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, it's you. You trade your situation right now
for that in a heartbeat. That's you have all the
same problems except you have Cooper Flag or whatever, Ace
Baal or whatever like. That's that's a better place to be.
Speaker 1: Do you have any predictions before we get out of here?
Of where do you think are the Sixers gonna? I
just does JU wanna bead of it all? Just you're right,
a seven to ten day update should not be having
us all in a tizzy. But you're right, it's the
accumulation of everything that's happened. And I just don't because
you could also say, if Duella be t healthy, you're
just in the play in imagine being the one or
two seed in the East and your reward is playing
a Sixers seem last, dwell and beat available.
Speaker 2: And I think my prediction ultimately will be that the
Sixers will hold out hope that that's a possibility and
recognize that it's really really going to be hard for
them to improve their lottery odds from here and just
kind of grit their teeth, go for it and whatever
that means. Maybe Embiid gets back and he looks better
than he has at any point this year. It's not
what I would do, but I think that's probably the
way things go here.
Speaker 1: Even the middle ground would just be saying, until you
know Joel Embiid can't play again this year, you kind
of just stay in the course. That's to a point
where it's, oh, we're in the play in but he's
not available, then just throw the playing games and like,
just make sure that your lottery odds are as high
as possible that way or so, I don't I don't know,
but that's probably the middle ground. But you I came
into this saying there's just no reason for them to tank,
and you sold me on the idea of I don't
think they're gonna even come close to winning the championship
this year, and so why not just try and juice
the odds of keeping your pick to twenty one to
twenty six percent.
Speaker 2: It's a more way to look at it. I don't
know if that's right, but but I do think that's
that's going to be a consideration.
Speaker 1: At least we're gonna eat some crow on the off
season grades that we gave them, though when we regrade
those later, I'll tell you that much.
Speaker 2: I regret nothing. I stand on it. Those were good moves.
Speaker 1: Are unless you have anything else, are you ready to
take us out of here?
Speaker 2: No? Thanks everybody for listening, for watching. Remember Rate Review,
subscribe where you're listening to your podcast subscribeing YouTube as well.
Leave us some comments there, let us know what you
think the Sixers should do and what they will do,
and whether are those whether those are the same things
or different things. As we've kind of equivocated, It's twenty here,
in twenty five minutes. Thanks everybody, shouts Franklin Quine. Apologies.
Jared Allen