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<v Speaker 1>Let's do a little football with Aaron Schatz on the

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<v Speaker 1>program on a Wednesday afternoon.

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<v Speaker 2>Aaron, Happy Wednesday. How are you sir?

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<v Speaker 3>Hey, I'm good. How are you doing.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm doing well. Appreciate your time.

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<v Speaker 1>So whenever I interview somebody for the first time, and

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<v Speaker 1>I've been doing this for twenty years now, I've never

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<v Speaker 1>had an opportunity to interview you, I just like to

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<v Speaker 1>get to know them a little bit. I was reviewing

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<v Speaker 1>your socials after Porter in in for you. You were

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<v Speaker 1>going to join us, So let's get to know you

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit. Tell us about yourself. How'd you get

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<v Speaker 1>into this gig? And what are you doing now?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah? I have been doing football analytics for over twenty years.

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<v Speaker 3>I founded a site called Football Outsiders, which no longer exists.

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<v Speaker 3>Now I work for FPN Fantasy and I'm known for

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<v Speaker 3>my DVOA stats, which look at every single play and

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<v Speaker 3>adjust them based on a league average baseline of situation

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<v Speaker 3>and opponents to analyze where teams have strengths and weaknesses

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<v Speaker 3>going into the Super Bowl.

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<v Speaker 1>Translation, you're very smart and the rest of us just

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<v Speaker 1>watch football. So how'd you get into it? Are you

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<v Speaker 1>just a lifelong football fan, just fascinated by the game.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, basically, just had some questions and nobody was answering them.

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<v Speaker 3>And there were all these baseball analytics sites and nobody

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<v Speaker 3>was doing football, and so I was like, I'm going

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<v Speaker 3>to try to answer some questions. And so I put

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<v Speaker 3>together a database of the two thousand and two season

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<v Speaker 3>and started creating stats. Now I have a database with

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<v Speaker 3>every season from nineteen seventy eight to twenty twenty four.

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<v Speaker 1>Wow, well, very very nuanced. Well you should know I'm

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<v Speaker 1>a New York Football Jets fan. So I'm a long

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<v Speaker 1>suffering NFL fan. I do not want to know what

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<v Speaker 1>your data says about the Jets at all, but I

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<v Speaker 1>am wondering what your take is on the new head coach,

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<v Speaker 1>the new hire and what they do with their starting quarterback,

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<v Speaker 1>and if you can give me any hope for being

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<v Speaker 1>a Jets fan moving forward.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, I like Glenn as a higher I think

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<v Speaker 3>people like him as a sort of leader of men.

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<v Speaker 3>I think what he was able to do to motivate

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<v Speaker 3>the Detroit defense despite all of the injuries that they

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<v Speaker 3>had was very good. I think that Rogers is a

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<v Speaker 3>locker room cancer, and that he's not very good anymore

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<v Speaker 3>as a quarterback, Like he's a very average quarterback, and

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<v Speaker 3>you can get average quarterback performance without that kind of personality.

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<v Speaker 3>So I would move on.

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<v Speaker 2>Well said, I am with you. I am with you.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, let's before we get to your thoughts on

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<v Speaker 1>the Super Bowl, let's dig into the conference championship games.

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<v Speaker 1>And I actually want to start with a question about

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<v Speaker 1>the Commanders and Jaden Daniels, who he had out here

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<v Speaker 1>in the Pac twelve foot print before he transferred to LSU.

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<v Speaker 1>He was a ASU kid and I remember watching him

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<v Speaker 1>play and thinking he was pretty exciting. But I never

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<v Speaker 1>thought he would be doing this at the doorstep of history.

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<v Speaker 2>But the Eagles smoke him.

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<v Speaker 1>But before we get to the game, what do your

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<v Speaker 1>numbers say about just how special he was year one

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<v Speaker 1>and how Commanders fans should feel about their future with

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<v Speaker 1>him under center.

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<v Speaker 3>We have it as the fourth most valuable rookie quarterback

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<v Speaker 3>season since nineteen seventy eight, and I think Washington fans

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<v Speaker 3>should feel very good about him going forward. Now, what

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<v Speaker 3>you can't do is look at what he did this

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<v Speaker 3>year and go, well, everybody's better in their second year,

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<v Speaker 3>so he's going to just be better next year, because

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<v Speaker 3>the fact is, most quarterbacks who are this good as

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<v Speaker 3>rookies don't get better in their second year because they're

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<v Speaker 3>already this good. Like there are exceptions like Marino, but

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<v Speaker 3>he's an exception. However, I think you can pretty much

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<v Speaker 3>feel that Daniels is going to be this good, and

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<v Speaker 3>this good is pretty good, definitely a top eight quarterback

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<v Speaker 3>in the league this year, and that's pretty darn good

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<v Speaker 3>for us.

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<v Speaker 2>All Right.

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<v Speaker 1>Actually, you know what, let's uh, let's let's move over

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<v Speaker 1>to the Eagles specifically before we talk about kind of

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<v Speaker 1>the matchup, and I would be curious to get your

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<v Speaker 1>take as a guy that digs into the data, because

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<v Speaker 1>for me, all year long, I seem to have here,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, heard, watched read a lot of people that

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<v Speaker 1>were very skeptical about Philly's ability to do anything special

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<v Speaker 1>this year, And without knowing your data, I just have

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<v Speaker 1>adamantly disagreed based off talent at their disposal, it seems

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<v Speaker 1>like there's a lot of questions about their head coach,

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<v Speaker 1>seems like there's a lot of questions about their quarterback.

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<v Speaker 1>But here they are back in the Super Bowl. What's

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<v Speaker 1>your data say about this Eagles team?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I think that the skepticism was warranted because of

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<v Speaker 3>the way that team collapsed last year. I mean, despite

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<v Speaker 3>having all of the talent, they were not as good

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<v Speaker 3>as their record, and then over the last few games

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<v Speaker 3>completely collapsed. So the skepticism was warranted. But since October

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<v Speaker 3>they've been fantastic. They're the best defense in the league

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<v Speaker 3>this year. That's the big thing has been the step

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<v Speaker 3>forward on defense. I know people want to talk about

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<v Speaker 3>Saquon Barkley all the time, but the big thing has

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<v Speaker 3>been a huge step forward with a defense that has

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<v Speaker 3>stars on every level and guys who had huge breakout

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<v Speaker 3>seasons on every level of the defense, with Vic Fanzio

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<v Speaker 3>running the show. That's the reason they're in the Super Bowl.

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<v Speaker 1>So how did they dismantle the Commanders the way they did?

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<v Speaker 1>I thought Philly would win, but I thought it would

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<v Speaker 1>be close.

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<v Speaker 2>Vegas agreed. I think the line was six.

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<v Speaker 1>What stood out most to you about the way they

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<v Speaker 1>just blew their brakes off.

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<v Speaker 3>The Commanders had a bad defense. Like going into that game,

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<v Speaker 3>of the four teams that were left, there was one

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<v Speaker 3>unit that was bad, and that was the Washington defense.

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<v Speaker 3>And that's what we saw. The Washington defense is not good,

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<v Speaker 3>and so the Eagles scored a bunch of points on them.

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<v Speaker 3>They didn't. You know, their defense did a good job

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<v Speaker 3>of keeping Jaden Daniels down. Obviously, stripping the ball three

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<v Speaker 3>times is pretty good, you know, right, the Washington fumbled

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<v Speaker 3>three times. But the big issue is just that the

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<v Speaker 3>Washington defense was just stock good. Jaden Daniels is good,

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<v Speaker 3>the defense not so much.

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<v Speaker 2>So what's your data say on Jalen Hurts as a quarterback?

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<v Speaker 3>You know, he's been about like twelfth to thirteenth in

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<v Speaker 3>passing this year. He's a little bit better than that

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<v Speaker 3>when you consider his running ability. But the passing attack

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<v Speaker 3>for Eagles, if people feel like it's not as powerful

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<v Speaker 3>as other passing attacks in the league, they're right. Despite

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<v Speaker 3>the presence of AJ Brown and Davonte Smith and Dallas Goddard,

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<v Speaker 3>despite the offensive line, you know, blocks well, it's not

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<v Speaker 3>a great passing attack. What they have is a very

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<v Speaker 3>good running attack. And like I said, the best defense

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<v Speaker 3>in the life.

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<v Speaker 1>Is there a better one two wide receiver punch than

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<v Speaker 1>AJ Brown and DeVante Smith and pro football.

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<v Speaker 3>Jefferson and Addison is pretty good. Chason Higgins is pretty good,

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<v Speaker 3>but that's about to be broken up because Higgins is

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<v Speaker 3>likely to go elsewhere. It's if you say that that's

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<v Speaker 3>the best tandem in the league. You know, I think

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<v Speaker 3>that you've got a pretty good case.

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<v Speaker 1>You think Higgins ends up in Washington, Maybe give Jaden

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<v Speaker 1>another weapon, you know, I think that that's possible.

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<v Speaker 3>But I would be surprised if it's a team with

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of cap room that wants to sign him.

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<v Speaker 3>There's a lot of talk about New England trying to

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<v Speaker 3>blow everybody else out of the water with big offer.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, moving over to the AFC Championship game, let me

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<v Speaker 1>start with I mean, I know what we're all supposed

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<v Speaker 1>to do as media members, Josh Allen will never win

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<v Speaker 1>the Big One because Patrick Mahomes is Michael Jordan. But

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<v Speaker 1>what's your take on the Bills side of this? You know,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm a child of the Northeast that lived there in

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<v Speaker 1>the nineties. I very much remember those four Super Bowl appearances.

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<v Speaker 1>Just heartbreaking for a very passionate fan base and a

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<v Speaker 1>very great football market. So what do the numbers say

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<v Speaker 1>about the Bills this year and your projection on Josh

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<v Speaker 1>Allen the rest.

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<v Speaker 2>Of the way.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, they were a very good team this year.

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<v Speaker 3>They were a better team this year than Kansas City

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<v Speaker 3>during the regular season. Not in this game, though. Kansas

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<v Speaker 3>City was a much better team in this game because

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<v Speaker 3>there were five fumbles in this game. And something you

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<v Speaker 3>have to understand is that fumble recovery is essentially random,

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<v Speaker 3>and Buffalo recovered all five fumbles, which is ridiculous. That

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<v Speaker 3>is very lucky. And without that, Kansas City wins by

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<v Speaker 3>a larger amount. I understand why it's so hardbreaks right,

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<v Speaker 3>all the games have been closed as far as the score.

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<v Speaker 3>They can't came to get past Kansas City. That's how

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<v Speaker 3>Indianapolis fans felt. And then two thousand and six came

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<v Speaker 3>and they had a big comeback and they finally beat

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<v Speaker 3>the Patriots. The day will come where somebody beats the Chiefs.

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<v Speaker 3>The Chiefs are not going to win the next twelve

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<v Speaker 3>straight Super Bowls. This is not the Celtics of the sixties.

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<v Speaker 3>Somebody will beat them. It will happen, in fact, to

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<v Speaker 3>somebody who beats them. Mit beat the Philadelphia Eagles.

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<v Speaker 2>And we will get there.

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<v Speaker 1>But before we do, since we're talking, Josh Allen Equal

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<v Speaker 1>Time says, I'm supposed to as a member of the media,

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<v Speaker 1>ask you about Lamar Jackson, who every time he loses

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<v Speaker 1>his game in the postseason has to deal with a

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<v Speaker 1>media news cycle of yeah, this dude will never get

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<v Speaker 1>it done either. What do your numbers say about Lamar

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<v Speaker 1>and do you think he'll eventually break through?

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, Lamar had an absolutely fantastic season. He had

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<v Speaker 3>one of the ten best quarterback seasons that I've ever

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<v Speaker 3>measured this year, and he played better in the playoffs

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<v Speaker 3>than he has in the past. But he went up

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<v Speaker 3>against a very good Bills team. The Ravens and Bills

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<v Speaker 3>were both really good teams, and the fact that the

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<v Speaker 3>Ravens lost by two points on the road to another

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<v Speaker 3>good team is that's not a face plant, right, Like,

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<v Speaker 3>sometimes if you're a really good team and to play

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<v Speaker 3>another really good team and you're in their building, you're

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<v Speaker 3>gonna lose by two points. It doesn't mean that you suck.

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<v Speaker 3>It doesn't mean you can't win the big one again.

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<v Speaker 3>History in all sports is filled with players who quote

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<v Speaker 3>unquote could not win in the playoffs until the year

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<v Speaker 3>they actually did. Whether it's Barry Bonds or Jason Tatum

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<v Speaker 3>or Peyton Manning or a number of players.

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<v Speaker 1>So we do have a couple of local angles Aaron

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<v Speaker 1>that I want to kick the tires on, and I'll

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<v Speaker 1>just ask you this, what's fair to say about that

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<v Speaker 1>final play fourth and five where Josh somehow was able

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<v Speaker 1>to get the pass off and our guy Dalton King

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<v Speaker 1>cad former you just was not able to make the play.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's really easy to knock on him, but

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<v Speaker 1>every replay indicates he had to change course. It was

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<v Speaker 1>going to be a difficult catch. Now, I'm sure Dalton

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<v Speaker 1>himself will say I gotta get that done. But what's

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<v Speaker 1>fair to say about that final play.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't consider it a drop. I'm one of the

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<v Speaker 3>people who feels like that's a difficult play. He had

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<v Speaker 3>to switch his inertia. He's going one direction, the ball

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<v Speaker 3>is in the other direction. He has to switch his

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<v Speaker 3>inertia and then dive to catch it. It would have

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<v Speaker 3>been great if he had caught it. That would have

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<v Speaker 3>been great. But I don't think that you can expect

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<v Speaker 3>that he's going to catch that ball. That's a difficult

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<v Speaker 3>catch to me.

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<v Speaker 1>We also had a local boy get his first career

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<v Speaker 1>start in a postseason well period, but it was a

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<v Speaker 1>playoff game, as Cole Bishop stepped in for Taylor Rapp.

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<v Speaker 1>How do you analyze the way Cole handled himself in

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<v Speaker 1>a very, very pressure pack situation.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, I know you into that game feeling like

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<v Speaker 3>the injuries in the secondary were going to be a

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<v Speaker 3>problem for the Bills. You didn't come out of it

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<v Speaker 3>thinking Cole Bishop was the problem. You came out of

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<v Speaker 3>it thinking kyer Elam was the problem. So I think

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<v Speaker 3>Bishop did pretty well for his first NFL start. Kyer

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<v Speaker 3>elm not so much good.

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<v Speaker 1>Good to hear that. Cole's great kid man front of

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<v Speaker 1>the show, so we cheer for him.

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<v Speaker 2>All right.

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<v Speaker 1>It's easy for me to say as an observer that

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<v Speaker 1>the Chiefs have built this incredible dynasty and have been

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<v Speaker 1>able to adjust and adapt, and they win in a

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<v Speaker 1>myriad of different ways, and a lot of it now.

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<v Speaker 1>Steve's back Nolan defensively, and of course Patrick Mahomes when

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<v Speaker 1>he first on the scene was Tyreek killing his prime.

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<v Speaker 1>Travis kelseen his prime and it was super fun to watch.

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<v Speaker 1>And maybe it's not as esthetically pleasing, but they're still

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<v Speaker 1>winning at.

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<v Speaker 2>An incredibly high clip. How have they been able to

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<v Speaker 2>do this?

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<v Speaker 1>From your prism and how have they adjusted and changed

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<v Speaker 1>with the times?

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, some of it is a little bit of luck.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, going fifteen into this year was a little

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<v Speaker 3>bit of luck. But they do turn it on. They

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<v Speaker 3>do play better in the playoffs. Spagnolo is a great

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<v Speaker 3>play designer on defense. I mean, if you look at

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<v Speaker 3>what he did to the Patriots when he was with

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<v Speaker 3>the Giants combined with what he's done to teams when

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<v Speaker 3>he's with the Chiefs, he's probably going to eventually be

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<v Speaker 3>in the Hall of Fame as an assistant coach. Mahomes

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<v Speaker 3>So here's the thing. Most quarterbacks, when you are in

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<v Speaker 3>situations where passes are expected, play worse, which makes sense

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<v Speaker 3>because if the defense knows the pass is coming, they're

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<v Speaker 3>going to play against the pass. You're not going to

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<v Speaker 3>be as good. Mahomes is better in those situations than

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<v Speaker 3>he is usually, which is kind of crazy. Like if

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<v Speaker 3>you know a pass is coming, you still can't stop him.

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<v Speaker 3>And that's what's special about it.

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<v Speaker 2>All Right, let's move over to this matchup. It's Philly.

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<v Speaker 1>It's KC Super Bowl fifty nine rematch the Super Bowl

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<v Speaker 1>fifty seven. Casey a slight favorite. Let's start here. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>let's do it a couple of different ways. Philadelphia wins

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<v Speaker 1>Super Bowl fifty nine if what.

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<v Speaker 3>If their defense clamps down? I mean, this is more

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<v Speaker 3>than anything else. This is a battle of two defensive

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<v Speaker 3>coordinators scheming against the other offense. Vic Fangio for Philadelphia

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<v Speaker 3>and Steve s Pagnolo for Kansas City. And if Fangio's

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<v Speaker 3>defense can somewhat limit Patrick Mahomes, and if Saquon Barkley

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<v Speaker 3>can break a couple of those explosive runs against a

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<v Speaker 3>Kansas City defense that does not give up a lot

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<v Speaker 3>of explosive runs, then Philadelphia will take this home.

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<v Speaker 2>In Kansas City. He gets the three peet and makes history.

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<v Speaker 2>If what.

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<v Speaker 3>If Spagnolo and his bliss packages get to Hurts and

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<v Speaker 3>the defense, the run defense keeps Barkley somewhat contained and mahomess.

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<v Speaker 1>Mahomes, what do you think aaron is going to happened?

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<v Speaker 1>What's your prediction for Super Bowl fifty nine.

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<v Speaker 3>I think it's going to be close. I think the

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<v Speaker 3>Eagles have a better shot at this than a lot

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<v Speaker 3>of people give them credit for. But I would pick

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<v Speaker 3>the Chiefs. And here's what worries me. The offensive line

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<v Speaker 3>injuries for the Eagles. The Chiefs are at their healthiest

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<v Speaker 3>that they've been all year, while we don't know the

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<v Speaker 3>status of Landon Dickerson and Cam Jurgen's for the Eagles.

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<v Speaker 3>And if one of those players is out and some

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<v Speaker 3>you know, Tylers Dean has to go up against Chris

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<v Speaker 3>Jones in the middle of that Kansas City defense. That

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<v Speaker 3>is a problem. And that is enough to tip my

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<v Speaker 3>pick to the Chiefs.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, before I say you loose just out of curiosity,

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<v Speaker 1>you're a smart guy. Wanted to kick the tires on

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<v Speaker 1>a couple of storylines Ben Johnson, namely leaving Detroit to

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<v Speaker 1>take over Chicago. I reference we well, the PAC twelve

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<v Speaker 1>is dead, but for a while pack twelve footprint.

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<v Speaker 2>So we saw Caleb up close.

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<v Speaker 1>You taught some good success against Caleb Williams when he

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<v Speaker 1>was at Southern cal. So how do you analyze Caleb

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<v Speaker 1>Williams rookie quarterback now his rookie year behind him? And

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<v Speaker 1>what do you think Ben Johnson can do as far

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<v Speaker 1>as taking over that job.

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<v Speaker 3>Here's the problem. We know Ben Johnson is a great

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<v Speaker 3>schemer and designer of plays, but can he fix the

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<v Speaker 3>clock in Caleb Williams's head. Caleb Williams's biggest problem is

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<v Speaker 3>taking sacks by holding onto the ball too long, and

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<v Speaker 3>if Ben Johnson can't fix that, then Caleb Williams is

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<v Speaker 3>going to be a subpark quarterback.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, let me kick the tires with you when

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<v Speaker 1>you know we're not an NFL market, but due to

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<v Speaker 1>our geographical location, we do have a lot of Denver

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<v Speaker 1>Bronco fans here. And Bonix is another player who he

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<v Speaker 1>had here playing Utah number of different times was up

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<v Speaker 1>on the sidelines watching.

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<v Speaker 2>Him play the utes, and he picked him apart.

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<v Speaker 1>I will admit to being skeptical when Sean Payton landed

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<v Speaker 1>on Bononicks as his choice, but they win ten games

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<v Speaker 1>his first year and he looked pretty good.

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<v Speaker 2>What do you think the future holds in Denver?

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<v Speaker 3>I also will admit to being skeptical of bo Nicks,

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<v Speaker 3>especially early on in the season when it seemed like

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<v Speaker 3>every passing through was behind the line of scrimmage. But

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<v Speaker 3>they eventually develop a deep passing game and he had

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<v Speaker 3>a pretty good rookie season. So I think that things

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<v Speaker 3>look good for bow Nicks going forward. I think things

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<v Speaker 3>look good for Denver going forward. It's possible that all

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<v Speaker 3>the first round quarterbacks from that draft are going to

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<v Speaker 3>be at least average, which is kind of amazing because

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<v Speaker 3>you saw the spark with break May and Caleb Williams.

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<v Speaker 3>You saw what they could become. Panix was good in

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<v Speaker 3>the three games, right, Jayden Daniels was awesome, Nicks was

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<v Speaker 3>very good. We don't know yet what we'll see from McCarthy,

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<v Speaker 3>but that's a pretty good quarterback class.

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<v Speaker 2>All right.

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<v Speaker 1>Before I say you loose there because of their move

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<v Speaker 1>now via their their location in Las Vegas, the Raiders

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<v Speaker 1>are the closest team to us here in Salt Lake City.

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<v Speaker 2>Pete Carroll to the Raiders, how do you think this

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<v Speaker 2>works out? What do they need?

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<v Speaker 3>Dad?

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<v Speaker 2>To give Pete a chance here?

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<v Speaker 3>The first thing I would say is that when I'm

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<v Speaker 3>seventy four, I would like to be tired. I don't

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<v Speaker 3>understand why he came back. My god, dude, like rest

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<v Speaker 3>enjoy the rest of your life. But I mean, who's

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<v Speaker 3>the quarterback? The problem here is who's the quarterback. It's

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<v Speaker 3>not probably Aiden O'Connell, it's not probably Gardner Minshew. Are

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<v Speaker 3>they going to bring in Russell Wilson because he's familiar

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<v Speaker 3>with Carol? You're just gonna get average quarterback play with

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<v Speaker 3>the same strengths and weaknesses that Wilson showed for Pittsburgh.

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<v Speaker 3>It seems like such a hopeless organization in a division

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<v Speaker 3>where the Chargers and Broncos look much better now and

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<v Speaker 3>the Chiefs of the Chiefs. It's not the best organization

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<v Speaker 3>to be a fan of right now.

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<v Speaker 1>I would imagine Aaron, your work is beneficial for folks

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<v Speaker 1>that might want to, I don't know, maybe play a

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<v Speaker 1>little daily fantasy or have a little fun with the

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<v Speaker 1>Super Bowl.

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<v Speaker 2>Is that fair to say?

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<v Speaker 3>Absolutely? Not only my stuff the DVOA ratings at FTN Fantasy,

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<v Speaker 3>but we have DFS optimizers and all kinds of picks

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<v Speaker 3>stuff in other sports too. People should check out ftnfantasy

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<v Speaker 3>dot com.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, thank you, sir for your time. It's been illuminating.

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<v Speaker 1>Love to have you back on soon.

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<v Speaker 3>Absolutely, man and everybody enjoyed the.

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<v Speaker 2>Super Bowl, all right.

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<v Speaker 1>Aaron Schatz from FTN Fantasy, he has I'm looking at

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<v Speaker 1>his socials. He has a bevy of options at your

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<v Speaker 1>disposal if you're interested in getting involved with some daily

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<v Speaker 1>fantasy for the Super Bowl, or if you just want

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<v Speaker 1>to learn more about the game. That the links to

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<v Speaker 1>all of his work up on his Twitter page. It's

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<v Speaker 1>at a Shatz NFL is where you find him. He

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<v Speaker 1>says he specializes in nuanced ice cold NFL takes. You

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<v Speaker 1>can tell that he does a lot of work, so

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<v Speaker 1>check out his social super Bowl fifty nine less than

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<v Speaker 1>two weeks away Philly and Kansas City.

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<v Speaker 2>So excited for that one.