Speaker 1: Let's do a little football with Aaron Schatz on the
Speaker 1: program on a Wednesday afternoon.
Speaker 2: Aaron, Happy Wednesday. How are you sir?
Speaker 3: Hey, I'm good. How are you doing.
Speaker 2: I'm doing well. Appreciate your time.
Speaker 1: So whenever I interview somebody for the first time, and
Speaker 1: I've been doing this for twenty years now, I've never
Speaker 1: had an opportunity to interview you, I just like to
Speaker 1: get to know them a little bit. I was reviewing
Speaker 1: your socials after Porter in in for you. You were
Speaker 1: going to join us, So let's get to know you
Speaker 1: a little bit. Tell us about yourself. How'd you get
Speaker 1: into this gig? And what are you doing now?
Speaker 3: Yeah? I have been doing football analytics for over twenty years.
Speaker 3: I founded a site called Football Outsiders, which no longer exists.
Speaker 3: Now I work for FPN Fantasy and I'm known for
Speaker 3: my DVOA stats, which look at every single play and
Speaker 3: adjust them based on a league average baseline of situation
Speaker 3: and opponents to analyze where teams have strengths and weaknesses
Speaker 3: going into the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1: Translation, you're very smart and the rest of us just
Speaker 1: watch football. So how'd you get into it? Are you
Speaker 1: just a lifelong football fan, just fascinated by the game.
Speaker 3: Yeah, basically, just had some questions and nobody was answering them.
Speaker 3: And there were all these baseball analytics sites and nobody
Speaker 3: was doing football, and so I was like, I'm going
Speaker 3: to try to answer some questions. And so I put
Speaker 3: together a database of the two thousand and two season
Speaker 3: and started creating stats. Now I have a database with
Speaker 3: every season from nineteen seventy eight to twenty twenty four.
Speaker 1: Wow, well, very very nuanced. Well you should know I'm
Speaker 1: a New York Football Jets fan. So I'm a long
Speaker 1: suffering NFL fan. I do not want to know what
Speaker 1: your data says about the Jets at all, but I
Speaker 1: am wondering what your take is on the new head coach,
Speaker 1: the new hire and what they do with their starting quarterback,
Speaker 1: and if you can give me any hope for being
Speaker 1: a Jets fan moving forward.
Speaker 3: I mean, I like Glenn as a higher I think
Speaker 3: people like him as a sort of leader of men.
Speaker 3: I think what he was able to do to motivate
Speaker 3: the Detroit defense despite all of the injuries that they
Speaker 3: had was very good. I think that Rogers is a
Speaker 3: locker room cancer, and that he's not very good anymore
Speaker 3: as a quarterback, Like he's a very average quarterback, and
Speaker 3: you can get average quarterback performance without that kind of personality.
Speaker 3: So I would move on.
Speaker 2: Well said, I am with you. I am with you.
Speaker 1: All right, let's before we get to your thoughts on
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, let's dig into the conference championship games.
Speaker 1: And I actually want to start with a question about
Speaker 1: the Commanders and Jaden Daniels, who he had out here
Speaker 1: in the Pac twelve foot print before he transferred to LSU.
Speaker 1: He was a ASU kid and I remember watching him
Speaker 1: play and thinking he was pretty exciting. But I never
Speaker 1: thought he would be doing this at the doorstep of history.
Speaker 2: But the Eagles smoke him.
Speaker 1: But before we get to the game, what do your
Speaker 1: numbers say about just how special he was year one
Speaker 1: and how Commanders fans should feel about their future with
Speaker 1: him under center.
Speaker 3: We have it as the fourth most valuable rookie quarterback
Speaker 3: season since nineteen seventy eight, and I think Washington fans
Speaker 3: should feel very good about him going forward. Now, what
Speaker 3: you can't do is look at what he did this
Speaker 3: year and go, well, everybody's better in their second year,
Speaker 3: so he's going to just be better next year, because
Speaker 3: the fact is, most quarterbacks who are this good as
Speaker 3: rookies don't get better in their second year because they're
Speaker 3: already this good. Like there are exceptions like Marino, but
Speaker 3: he's an exception. However, I think you can pretty much
Speaker 3: feel that Daniels is going to be this good, and
Speaker 3: this good is pretty good, definitely a top eight quarterback
Speaker 3: in the league this year, and that's pretty darn good
Speaker 3: for us.
Speaker 2: All Right.
Speaker 1: Actually, you know what, let's uh, let's let's move over
Speaker 1: to the Eagles specifically before we talk about kind of
Speaker 1: the matchup, and I would be curious to get your
Speaker 1: take as a guy that digs into the data, because
Speaker 1: for me, all year long, I seem to have here,
Speaker 1: you know, heard, watched read a lot of people that
Speaker 1: were very skeptical about Philly's ability to do anything special
Speaker 1: this year, And without knowing your data, I just have
Speaker 1: adamantly disagreed based off talent at their disposal, it seems
Speaker 1: like there's a lot of questions about their head coach,
Speaker 1: seems like there's a lot of questions about their quarterback.
Speaker 1: But here they are back in the Super Bowl. What's
Speaker 1: your data say about this Eagles team?
Speaker 3: Well, I think that the skepticism was warranted because of
Speaker 3: the way that team collapsed last year. I mean, despite
Speaker 3: having all of the talent, they were not as good
Speaker 3: as their record, and then over the last few games
Speaker 3: completely collapsed. So the skepticism was warranted. But since October
Speaker 3: they've been fantastic. They're the best defense in the league
Speaker 3: this year. That's the big thing has been the step
Speaker 3: forward on defense. I know people want to talk about
Speaker 3: Saquon Barkley all the time, but the big thing has
Speaker 3: been a huge step forward with a defense that has
Speaker 3: stars on every level and guys who had huge breakout
Speaker 3: seasons on every level of the defense, with Vic Fanzio
Speaker 3: running the show. That's the reason they're in the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1: So how did they dismantle the Commanders the way they did?
Speaker 1: I thought Philly would win, but I thought it would
Speaker 1: be close.
Speaker 2: Vegas agreed. I think the line was six.
Speaker 1: What stood out most to you about the way they
Speaker 1: just blew their brakes off.
Speaker 3: The Commanders had a bad defense. Like going into that game,
Speaker 3: of the four teams that were left, there was one
Speaker 3: unit that was bad, and that was the Washington defense.
Speaker 3: And that's what we saw. The Washington defense is not good,
Speaker 3: and so the Eagles scored a bunch of points on them.
Speaker 3: They didn't. You know, their defense did a good job
Speaker 3: of keeping Jaden Daniels down. Obviously, stripping the ball three
Speaker 3: times is pretty good, you know, right, the Washington fumbled
Speaker 3: three times. But the big issue is just that the
Speaker 3: Washington defense was just stock good. Jaden Daniels is good,
Speaker 3: the defense not so much.
Speaker 2: So what's your data say on Jalen Hurts as a quarterback?
Speaker 3: You know, he's been about like twelfth to thirteenth in
Speaker 3: passing this year. He's a little bit better than that
Speaker 3: when you consider his running ability. But the passing attack
Speaker 3: for Eagles, if people feel like it's not as powerful
Speaker 3: as other passing attacks in the league, they're right. Despite
Speaker 3: the presence of AJ Brown and Davonte Smith and Dallas Goddard,
Speaker 3: despite the offensive line, you know, blocks well, it's not
Speaker 3: a great passing attack. What they have is a very
Speaker 3: good running attack. And like I said, the best defense
Speaker 3: in the life.
Speaker 1: Is there a better one two wide receiver punch than
Speaker 1: AJ Brown and DeVante Smith and pro football.
Speaker 3: Jefferson and Addison is pretty good. Chason Higgins is pretty good,
Speaker 3: but that's about to be broken up because Higgins is
Speaker 3: likely to go elsewhere. It's if you say that that's
Speaker 3: the best tandem in the league. You know, I think
Speaker 3: that you've got a pretty good case.
Speaker 1: You think Higgins ends up in Washington, Maybe give Jaden
Speaker 1: another weapon, you know, I think that that's possible.
Speaker 3: But I would be surprised if it's a team with
Speaker 3: a lot of cap room that wants to sign him.
Speaker 3: There's a lot of talk about New England trying to
Speaker 3: blow everybody else out of the water with big offer.
Speaker 1: Okay, moving over to the AFC Championship game, let me
Speaker 1: start with I mean, I know what we're all supposed
Speaker 1: to do as media members, Josh Allen will never win
Speaker 1: the Big One because Patrick Mahomes is Michael Jordan. But
Speaker 1: what's your take on the Bills side of this? You know,
Speaker 1: I'm a child of the Northeast that lived there in
Speaker 1: the nineties. I very much remember those four Super Bowl appearances.
Speaker 1: Just heartbreaking for a very passionate fan base and a
Speaker 1: very great football market. So what do the numbers say
Speaker 1: about the Bills this year and your projection on Josh
Speaker 1: Allen the rest.
Speaker 2: Of the way.
Speaker 3: I mean, they were a very good team this year.
Speaker 3: They were a better team this year than Kansas City
Speaker 3: during the regular season. Not in this game, though. Kansas
Speaker 3: City was a much better team in this game because
Speaker 3: there were five fumbles in this game. And something you
Speaker 3: have to understand is that fumble recovery is essentially random,
Speaker 3: and Buffalo recovered all five fumbles, which is ridiculous. That
Speaker 3: is very lucky. And without that, Kansas City wins by
Speaker 3: a larger amount. I understand why it's so hardbreaks right,
Speaker 3: all the games have been closed as far as the score.
Speaker 3: They can't came to get past Kansas City. That's how
Speaker 3: Indianapolis fans felt. And then two thousand and six came
Speaker 3: and they had a big comeback and they finally beat
Speaker 3: the Patriots. The day will come where somebody beats the Chiefs.
Speaker 3: The Chiefs are not going to win the next twelve
Speaker 3: straight Super Bowls. This is not the Celtics of the sixties.
Speaker 3: Somebody will beat them. It will happen, in fact, to
Speaker 3: somebody who beats them. Mit beat the Philadelphia Eagles.
Speaker 2: And we will get there.
Speaker 1: But before we do, since we're talking, Josh Allen Equal
Speaker 1: Time says, I'm supposed to as a member of the media,
Speaker 1: ask you about Lamar Jackson, who every time he loses
Speaker 1: his game in the postseason has to deal with a
Speaker 1: media news cycle of yeah, this dude will never get
Speaker 1: it done either. What do your numbers say about Lamar
Speaker 1: and do you think he'll eventually break through?
Speaker 3: I mean, Lamar had an absolutely fantastic season. He had
Speaker 3: one of the ten best quarterback seasons that I've ever
Speaker 3: measured this year, and he played better in the playoffs
Speaker 3: than he has in the past. But he went up
Speaker 3: against a very good Bills team. The Ravens and Bills
Speaker 3: were both really good teams, and the fact that the
Speaker 3: Ravens lost by two points on the road to another
Speaker 3: good team is that's not a face plant, right, Like,
Speaker 3: sometimes if you're a really good team and to play
Speaker 3: another really good team and you're in their building, you're
Speaker 3: gonna lose by two points. It doesn't mean that you suck.
Speaker 3: It doesn't mean you can't win the big one again.
Speaker 3: History in all sports is filled with players who quote
Speaker 3: unquote could not win in the playoffs until the year
Speaker 3: they actually did. Whether it's Barry Bonds or Jason Tatum
Speaker 3: or Peyton Manning or a number of players.
Speaker 1: So we do have a couple of local angles Aaron
Speaker 1: that I want to kick the tires on, and I'll
Speaker 1: just ask you this, what's fair to say about that
Speaker 1: final play fourth and five where Josh somehow was able
Speaker 1: to get the pass off and our guy Dalton King
Speaker 1: cad former you just was not able to make the play.
Speaker 1: I think it's really easy to knock on him, but
Speaker 1: every replay indicates he had to change course. It was
Speaker 1: going to be a difficult catch. Now, I'm sure Dalton
Speaker 1: himself will say I gotta get that done. But what's
Speaker 1: fair to say about that final play.
Speaker 3: I don't consider it a drop. I'm one of the
Speaker 3: people who feels like that's a difficult play. He had
Speaker 3: to switch his inertia. He's going one direction, the ball
Speaker 3: is in the other direction. He has to switch his
Speaker 3: inertia and then dive to catch it. It would have
Speaker 3: been great if he had caught it. That would have
Speaker 3: been great. But I don't think that you can expect
Speaker 3: that he's going to catch that ball. That's a difficult
Speaker 3: catch to me.
Speaker 1: We also had a local boy get his first career
Speaker 1: start in a postseason well period, but it was a
Speaker 1: playoff game, as Cole Bishop stepped in for Taylor Rapp.
Speaker 1: How do you analyze the way Cole handled himself in
Speaker 1: a very, very pressure pack situation.
Speaker 3: I mean, I know you into that game feeling like
Speaker 3: the injuries in the secondary were going to be a
Speaker 3: problem for the Bills. You didn't come out of it
Speaker 3: thinking Cole Bishop was the problem. You came out of
Speaker 3: it thinking kyer Elam was the problem. So I think
Speaker 3: Bishop did pretty well for his first NFL start. Kyer
Speaker 3: elm not so much good.
Speaker 1: Good to hear that. Cole's great kid man front of
Speaker 1: the show, so we cheer for him.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 1: It's easy for me to say as an observer that
Speaker 1: the Chiefs have built this incredible dynasty and have been
Speaker 1: able to adjust and adapt, and they win in a
Speaker 1: myriad of different ways, and a lot of it now.
Speaker 1: Steve's back Nolan defensively, and of course Patrick Mahomes when
Speaker 1: he first on the scene was Tyreek killing his prime.
Speaker 1: Travis kelseen his prime and it was super fun to watch.
Speaker 1: And maybe it's not as esthetically pleasing, but they're still
Speaker 1: winning at.
Speaker 2: An incredibly high clip. How have they been able to
Speaker 2: do this?
Speaker 1: From your prism and how have they adjusted and changed
Speaker 1: with the times?
Speaker 3: I mean, some of it is a little bit of luck.
Speaker 3: I mean, going fifteen into this year was a little
Speaker 3: bit of luck. But they do turn it on. They
Speaker 3: do play better in the playoffs. Spagnolo is a great
Speaker 3: play designer on defense. I mean, if you look at
Speaker 3: what he did to the Patriots when he was with
Speaker 3: the Giants combined with what he's done to teams when
Speaker 3: he's with the Chiefs, he's probably going to eventually be
Speaker 3: in the Hall of Fame as an assistant coach. Mahomes
Speaker 3: So here's the thing. Most quarterbacks, when you are in
Speaker 3: situations where passes are expected, play worse, which makes sense
Speaker 3: because if the defense knows the pass is coming, they're
Speaker 3: going to play against the pass. You're not going to
Speaker 3: be as good. Mahomes is better in those situations than
Speaker 3: he is usually, which is kind of crazy. Like if
Speaker 3: you know a pass is coming, you still can't stop him.
Speaker 3: And that's what's special about it.
Speaker 2: All Right, let's move over to this matchup. It's Philly.
Speaker 1: It's KC Super Bowl fifty nine rematch the Super Bowl
Speaker 1: fifty seven. Casey a slight favorite. Let's start here. Okay,
Speaker 1: let's do it a couple of different ways. Philadelphia wins
Speaker 1: Super Bowl fifty nine if what.
Speaker 3: If their defense clamps down? I mean, this is more
Speaker 3: than anything else. This is a battle of two defensive
Speaker 3: coordinators scheming against the other offense. Vic Fangio for Philadelphia
Speaker 3: and Steve s Pagnolo for Kansas City. And if Fangio's
Speaker 3: defense can somewhat limit Patrick Mahomes, and if Saquon Barkley
Speaker 3: can break a couple of those explosive runs against a
Speaker 3: Kansas City defense that does not give up a lot
Speaker 3: of explosive runs, then Philadelphia will take this home.
Speaker 2: In Kansas City. He gets the three peet and makes history.
Speaker 2: If what.
Speaker 3: If Spagnolo and his bliss packages get to Hurts and
Speaker 3: the defense, the run defense keeps Barkley somewhat contained and mahomess.
Speaker 1: Mahomes, what do you think aaron is going to happened?
Speaker 1: What's your prediction for Super Bowl fifty nine.
Speaker 3: I think it's going to be close. I think the
Speaker 3: Eagles have a better shot at this than a lot
Speaker 3: of people give them credit for. But I would pick
Speaker 3: the Chiefs. And here's what worries me. The offensive line
Speaker 3: injuries for the Eagles. The Chiefs are at their healthiest
Speaker 3: that they've been all year, while we don't know the
Speaker 3: status of Landon Dickerson and Cam Jurgen's for the Eagles.
Speaker 3: And if one of those players is out and some
Speaker 3: you know, Tylers Dean has to go up against Chris
Speaker 3: Jones in the middle of that Kansas City defense. That
Speaker 3: is a problem. And that is enough to tip my
Speaker 3: pick to the Chiefs.
Speaker 1: All right, before I say you loose just out of curiosity,
Speaker 1: you're a smart guy. Wanted to kick the tires on
Speaker 1: a couple of storylines Ben Johnson, namely leaving Detroit to
Speaker 1: take over Chicago. I reference we well, the PAC twelve
Speaker 1: is dead, but for a while pack twelve footprint.
Speaker 2: So we saw Caleb up close.
Speaker 1: You taught some good success against Caleb Williams when he
Speaker 1: was at Southern cal. So how do you analyze Caleb
Speaker 1: Williams rookie quarterback now his rookie year behind him? And
Speaker 1: what do you think Ben Johnson can do as far
Speaker 1: as taking over that job.
Speaker 3: Here's the problem. We know Ben Johnson is a great
Speaker 3: schemer and designer of plays, but can he fix the
Speaker 3: clock in Caleb Williams's head. Caleb Williams's biggest problem is
Speaker 3: taking sacks by holding onto the ball too long, and
Speaker 3: if Ben Johnson can't fix that, then Caleb Williams is
Speaker 3: going to be a subpark quarterback.
Speaker 1: All right, let me kick the tires with you when
Speaker 1: you know we're not an NFL market, but due to
Speaker 1: our geographical location, we do have a lot of Denver
Speaker 1: Bronco fans here. And Bonix is another player who he
Speaker 1: had here playing Utah number of different times was up
Speaker 1: on the sidelines watching.
Speaker 2: Him play the utes, and he picked him apart.
Speaker 1: I will admit to being skeptical when Sean Payton landed
Speaker 1: on Bononicks as his choice, but they win ten games
Speaker 1: his first year and he looked pretty good.
Speaker 2: What do you think the future holds in Denver?
Speaker 3: I also will admit to being skeptical of bo Nicks,
Speaker 3: especially early on in the season when it seemed like
Speaker 3: every passing through was behind the line of scrimmage. But
Speaker 3: they eventually develop a deep passing game and he had
Speaker 3: a pretty good rookie season. So I think that things
Speaker 3: look good for bow Nicks going forward. I think things
Speaker 3: look good for Denver going forward. It's possible that all
Speaker 3: the first round quarterbacks from that draft are going to
Speaker 3: be at least average, which is kind of amazing because
Speaker 3: you saw the spark with break May and Caleb Williams.
Speaker 3: You saw what they could become. Panix was good in
Speaker 3: the three games, right, Jayden Daniels was awesome, Nicks was
Speaker 3: very good. We don't know yet what we'll see from McCarthy,
Speaker 3: but that's a pretty good quarterback class.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 1: Before I say you loose there because of their move
Speaker 1: now via their their location in Las Vegas, the Raiders
Speaker 1: are the closest team to us here in Salt Lake City.
Speaker 2: Pete Carroll to the Raiders, how do you think this
Speaker 2: works out? What do they need?
Speaker 3: Dad?
Speaker 2: To give Pete a chance here?
Speaker 3: The first thing I would say is that when I'm
Speaker 3: seventy four, I would like to be tired. I don't
Speaker 3: understand why he came back. My god, dude, like rest
Speaker 3: enjoy the rest of your life. But I mean, who's
Speaker 3: the quarterback? The problem here is who's the quarterback. It's
Speaker 3: not probably Aiden O'Connell, it's not probably Gardner Minshew. Are
Speaker 3: they going to bring in Russell Wilson because he's familiar
Speaker 3: with Carol? You're just gonna get average quarterback play with
Speaker 3: the same strengths and weaknesses that Wilson showed for Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3: It seems like such a hopeless organization in a division
Speaker 3: where the Chargers and Broncos look much better now and
Speaker 3: the Chiefs of the Chiefs. It's not the best organization
Speaker 3: to be a fan of right now.
Speaker 1: I would imagine Aaron, your work is beneficial for folks
Speaker 1: that might want to, I don't know, maybe play a
Speaker 1: little daily fantasy or have a little fun with the
Speaker 1: Super Bowl.
Speaker 2: Is that fair to say?
Speaker 3: Absolutely? Not only my stuff the DVOA ratings at FTN Fantasy,
Speaker 3: but we have DFS optimizers and all kinds of picks
Speaker 3: stuff in other sports too. People should check out ftnfantasy
Speaker 3: dot com.
Speaker 1: Okay, thank you, sir for your time. It's been illuminating.
Speaker 1: Love to have you back on soon.
Speaker 3: Absolutely, man and everybody enjoyed the.
Speaker 2: Super Bowl, all right.
Speaker 1: Aaron Schatz from FTN Fantasy, he has I'm looking at
Speaker 1: his socials. He has a bevy of options at your
Speaker 1: disposal if you're interested in getting involved with some daily
Speaker 1: fantasy for the Super Bowl, or if you just want
Speaker 1: to learn more about the game. That the links to
Speaker 1: all of his work up on his Twitter page. It's
Speaker 1: at a Shatz NFL is where you find him. He
Speaker 1: says he specializes in nuanced ice cold NFL takes. You
Speaker 1: can tell that he does a lot of work, so
Speaker 1: check out his social super Bowl fifty nine less than
Speaker 1: two weeks away Philly and Kansas City.
Speaker 2: So excited for that one.